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GUEST OBSERVATION
The Australian economy is well placed for the medium to long term. But we face risks as we transition back to broad-based growth.
Australia’s resources boom lasted a decade. Iron ore, coal, gas, gold - you name it. If we could dig it up, China was ready to buy it at record prices.
But adapting to a boom is hard. The boom increased demand for the Australian dollar, increasing the exchange rate (which is just the price of an Australian dollar). This hurt non-commodity exporters and led to a two-speed economy. The resource centres of Western Australia and Queensland boomed while the manufacturing and services centres of Melbourne and Sydney hit the wall.
We adapted. It was tough.
However, mining booms are temporary. As exploration and development expands supply, the prices inevitably drop. Our mining boom has ended. We have seen massive falls in <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/iron-ore-tipped-to-fall-below-us40-this-year-20150206-138235">iron ore</a>, coal, <a href="https://www.theweek.co.uk/business/oil-price/60838/oil-price-yo-yo-continues-as-traders-jockey-to-find-bottom">oil</a> and gas prices in recent years. It was fun while it lasted, but the inevitable has occurred and now the Australian economy is adjusting back again.
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/71427/area14mp/image-20150209-13704-159mbzh.png"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/71427/width668/image-20150209-13704-159mbzh.png" alt=""></a>
It’s good the boom is over
This is a good thing. A mining boom is like a boozy party. Great while it lasts, and it may lead to a <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-07/house-passed-in-at-auction-after-million-dollar-price-dive/6077724">short-term hangover</a>. However, so long as our economy can adapt back to the “new normal” of a lower exchange rate and more balanced growth driven by broad trade with our Asian neighbours, the end of the boom will lead to a new period of economic prosperity. The key is adaptability.
The end of the boom doesn’t mean that our earnings from mineral exports are back to 2000 levels. The development of new projects means that we will keep exporting and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australian-iron-ore-exports-are-still-making-plenty-of-money-for-the-government-2014-12">earning more</a>. Put simply, quantity matters as well as price.
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/71423/area14mp/image-20150209-13719-f1ta6v.jpg"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/71423/width668/image-20150209-13719-f1ta6v.jpg" alt=""></a>
Further, as the end of the boom leads to a fall in the Australian dollar, this hurts consumers as the price of imports rise. But Australian companies that compete with imports will find life easier. There will be more growth and jobs in these areas.
Similarly, the drop in the exchange rate helps our non-commodities exporters. Australian farmers, tertiary educators, high-end manufacturers and other service exporters should all have big grins on their faces. They will be expanding over the next few years as the rest of the world finds that they are much cheaper.
So the end of the boom will mean a return to more sustainable, balanced long-term growth across our economy. Asia is still growing and we are still well placed to benefit from that growth.
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/71424/area14mp/image-20150209-13713-3f98zz.jpg"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/71424/width668/image-20150209-13713-3f98zz.jpg" alt=""></a>
What are the short-term risks?
The biggest risk is that the federal government will panic. Transition means that unemployment will increase as workers fly-out of the mining centres and move back to the south eastern states. Federal tax revenue will also temporarily fall as profits decrease in the resource sector but are yet to rise in other sectors. This means that there will be an increasing budget deficit. Fortunately, we have low levels of government debt by international standards, interest rates are at historic lows and our government can easily borrow to both cover the deficit and invest in infrastructure that will assist the transition.
Our federal government should not party like it is 2010 again. But there is no budget crisis.
The second biggest risk is that state and federal governments will fail to continue the necessary long-term reform needed in areas such as taxation, health, education, transport and energy. The outcome of the Queensland state election has undermined reform. It shouldn’t. The evidence is clear that reforms, including privatisation, but particularly reforms that sensibly <a href="https://theconversation.com/privatisation-in-australia-as-the-accc-opens-a-can-of-worms-what-are-the-lessons-on-government-ownership-and-regulation-21752">introduce competition</a> where it can work, have benefited people in the states that have had the leadership to push forward.
There is still plenty of <a href="https://www.erawa.com.au/cproot/12778/2/Final%20Report%20-%20Inquiry%20into%20Microeconomic%20Reform%20in%20Western%20Australia.PDF">scope for reform</a>. Congestion charging on urban roads with funds being used to improve public transport, is a no-brainer. Removing impediments to the sharing economy, such as the regulations that protect vested interests but undermine platforms like Uber and Airbnb, will mean better and cheaper choice for families. Requiring government infrastructure projects to have independent cost-benefit analysis will reduce political boondoggles that help marginal electorates but cost the broader community. Moving to real-time pricing in electricity and using smart grids to give consumers more control over their power bills, will reduce energy use and carbon emissions while saving money for households.
There is a long list of reforms that governments should be pursuing. These reforms are necessary to maintain our economic flexibility. But with any reform there will be winners and losers. Governments need to have the guts to implement reforms, but the compassion to reform in a way that protects the most vulnerable in the community.
Finally, our governments need to remember the compact that has underpinned Australia since federation. We do not leave people behind. There has long been a series of transfers, through the grants commission and through the distribution of the GST, from the richer states to the poorer states and from the cities to the bush. These transfers help guarantee that all Australians can gain from long term economic growth. These transfers need to continue. But they also <a href="https://theconversation.com/bandaids-on-broadband-has-turnbull-got-what-it-takes-to-fix-the-nbn-36913">need to be transparent</a>. And states need to remember that <a href="https://economics.com.au/?p=8726">today’s winners can be tomorrow’s losers</a>. The transfers are like a national insurance policy that protect us all.
So, the economic future is looking bright for Australia. Sure, the economic winds have changed. But so long as we can adapt and “change tack”, and governments do not get in the way, the next ten years for Australia are likely to be even better than the last ten.
Stephen King is professor at the Department of Economics at Monash University.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>.
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Turning headwinds into tailwinds - the economy can correct course: Stephen King

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At last Monday’s do-or-die Press Club speech Prime Minister Tony Abbott claimed jobs growth in 2014 was triple the rate in 2013, with 4,000 new jobs a week. 
Treasurer Joe Hockey said the same thing on AM on Wednesday, refashioning the figure as 600 new jobs a day.
It’s a claim that seems counterintuitive amid headlines about the PM abandoning as unachievable his pre-election pledge to create a million jobs within five years. Unemployment jumped above 6% last year, the resources bust is on us, and consumer and business confidence has stalled.
A walk-through the figures from the Treasurer’s office confirms the calculations are ridgy-didge, as far as they go, being based on simple averages of the total persons employed column of the most recent Australian Bureau of Statistics labour force data. The government is only making one debatable assumption: that the labour market performance through 2013 can be properly attributed to the previous government, even though the Coalition was in power for the last three months of the year, while the 2014 stats are credited to the current government. The Treasurer’s office says assuming a three month lag before its policies take effect is perfectly plausible, and let’s not quibble there.
On average in 2013 there were 5,063 jobs created each month, while in 2014 there were 17,823 a month — more than 4,000 a week or 600 a day.
The ABS data doesn’t break out employment by industry sectors but construction is reckoned to be the stand-out performer in jobs growth last year. Given how toppy property markets are looking, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, it would be a brave policymaker who counted on a housing-led recovery in employment continuing on and on — even with lower interest rates.
But if the ABS data is right and jobs growth has tripled, why are we so gloomy about our job prospects and security? One problem with it is the official data fails to take account of population growth, as was highlighted in this <a href="https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=2&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=0CC0QFjAB&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Finsidestory.org.au%2Faustralia-today-a-million-new-adults-just-385000-new-jobs&amp;ei=twjUVNTHGaPJmAXX2oI4&amp;usg=AFQjCNFsu1-W8Q3M00TaKp2CXc-WXJJFmA&amp;sig2=E-mbSaUTIv-Bvmh_PvwBfQ">terrific article</a> by former Age economics editor Tim Colebatch. Over the three years to December 2014, the economy created 385,000 new jobs for every million new adults, his analysis shows, well down on the 690,000 new jobs created for every million new people over the past 30 years. Colebatch points at the high immigration rate — particularly employers using 457 visas to employ cheap cooks, for example — and argues the labour market simply can’t generate enough work for everybody.
People are simply dropping out of the workforce. The problem is highlighted in the following chart, which shows that, excepting Tasmania, the ratio of employment to population has tanked since the financial crisis.
<a href="https://media.crikey.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/employmentpopulation.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-479203" src="https://media.crikey.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/employmentpopulation.jpg" width="513" height="445"></a>
South Australian Senator Nick Xenophon, whose office provided the chart, told Crikey he has railed for years about the official employment figures and queries the government’s jobs claim: “I think that needs to be deconstructed, it needs to be forensically looked at. What percentage of those new jobs is someone working three, six, eight hours a week, particularly given anyone is counted as employed if they work as little as an hour a week?”
Data quality aside, the most pressing question is, given the tough job of transitioning out of the resources boom, where is future jobs growth going to come from? The Treasurer’s office points to “green shoots” such as last month’s ANZ job ad survey, which <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/anz-survey-shows-job-ads-rising-for-seventh-month-in-row/story-e6frg926-1227182042074">showed</a> jobs ads had risen for the seventh month in a row, and this week’s Dunn &amp; Bradstreet business expectations survey for the next quarter, which <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/expectations-surveys-show-business-sector-optimistic-about-employment-20150202-1342fs">shows</a> a jump in the hiring intentions of business for the next quarter.
Unfortunately for the government neither survey, on a close reading, is optimistic. ANZ’s job ads survey was a reliable leading indicator when print dominated, and although it now includes online ads it does not include social fora like LinkedIn, so it is still finding its feet in the digital economy. ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan commented: “The good news is that the economy continues to produce new employment opportunities. The bad news is that this has not been quite enough to counteract the flow of new workers into the economy plus the on-going loss of jobs in certain sectors”.
Hogan told Crikey ANZ had revised its forecasts for 2015 down, like most economists and expected unemployment to peak later this year: “We’re expecting jobs growth in certain key services such as real estate, IT and telecommunications and construction.
“The $64,000 question is whether or not broader business services industries can increase their headcount again — banking, accounting and the legal profession have been subdued at best for the last half-decade and they are big employers”.
Headlined “outlook cools”, Dunn &amp; Bradstreet’s survey is also less than confidence inspiring: firstly, although the survey has shown a jump in hiring intentions since the last election, and a big jump in January’s one-month survey, actual hiring has consistently tracked below expectations. Whether the jump in intentions translates into new jobs is unclear.
D&amp;B adviser Stephen Koukoulas told Crikey there was no suggestion we were headed for the precipice: “The labor-intensive parts of economy are retail and construction. Both are doing pretty well. House building and construction is pretty strong, really encouraging, and unlike mining, which is not very labor-intensive. The other one is retail, as we move from the mining boom to the dining boom, if we’re spending more money in cafes and restaurants , that employs a lot of people. So there’s a compositional shift in growth towards those sectors.”
Koukoulas is also not too gloomy about the future of manufacturing: “If you’re a manufacturer and you’ve survived last few years, with the Australian dollar now below US80c and probably staying there, you’re going to start doing well.”
Hockey’s office nominate three industries as source of future jobs growth: financial services, infrastructure and high-tech manufacturing — pointing for example to the Sydney firm that makes RODE microphones, recently <a href="https://www.joehockey.com/media/transcripts/details.aspx?s=621">toured by the Treasurer</a>. The recent free trade agreements will help manufacturers too, Hockey’s office says.
A microphone-led recovery seems unlikely, but niche manufacturing stories are always like that. Most concerning for the likes of Xenophon (and Victorian independent Senator John Madigan, who let rip on submarines on Q&amp;A on Monday) is looming self-inflicted job catastrophes in industries like car manufacturing and shipbuilding, particularly if our next submarine is going to be built offshore.
Says Xenophon: “We are looking at a tsunami of unemployment with the auto sector in next few years. [The subs decision] will have a massive multiplier effect in terms of unemployment.”
Xenophon points to growth industries like food manufacturing, medical technology and backs calls for relief on penalty rates for small businesses in the hospitality sector. ”I think we should be looking in advanced manufacturing, taking head-on the dumping that occurs that kills jobs — we take a very narrow approach to the WTO rules. We need to have a strategic approach to infrastructure, and smart manufacturing. We need to make sure our subs are built here and I think we need to have incubators for SMEs to drive jobs growth — miniature silicon valleys in our capital cities.”
It’s not exactly a comprehensive jobs plan, but it’s better than cutting industry assistance, abolishing the carbon tax and praying — which seems to be the nub of the government’s strategy to date.
This story originally appeared on <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2015/02/06/where-are-all-these-jobs-abbott-is-supposedly-creating/">Crikey</a>.
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Where are all the jobs Abbott is supposedly creating?

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The move by the RBA to a<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/" target="_blank"> record-low 2.25% cash rate </a>at its first meeting for 2015 has unsurprisingly reignited speculation of a <a href="https://news.domain.com.au/domain/interest-rate-cut-likely-to-turbocharge-sydney-houseprice-growth-20150203-134qd6" target="_blank">“turbo-charged” bubble</a> in Sydney’s house prices.
In actuality, the rate cut will not ignite a housing bubble and is the right policy given broader macroeconomic conditions.
While prospective property buyers in Sydney may feel the central bank has snubbed them, monetary policy is about a lot more than Sydney’s house prices. While pockets of Sydney have experienced high price appreciation in the past 12 months, this growth has not been experienced evenly across the city and certainly not across the country. <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/research/monthly-indices" target="_blank">Latest data from CoreLogic RP Data</a>, for example, show that while property prices in Sydney are up 13% over the past year, prices in Perth (2.56%), Darwin (1.40%) and Canberra (-0.34%) have barely kept pace with inflation in the 12 months to 31 Jan 2015.
This high variation in property prices across the country is a recurring theme in Australia. The figure below shows the average annual housing market returns to the east coast cities (SMB: Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane) against non-east coast cities (APD: Adelaide, Perth and Darwin). For comparison, housing market returns in Sydney alone are also charted.
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/71256/area14mp/image-20150205-28589-fn4ndj.JPG"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/71256/width668/image-20150205-28589-fn4ndj.JPG" alt=""></a>
Several facts become apparent in this analysis. Firstly, while price growth in Sydney has been high and increasing in the past year, it is not a bubble and is showing signs of cooling off. It also shows how the two-speed economy extends to housing markets.
Monetary Policy Is About More Than Sydney’s House Prices
The RBA cash rate is a blunt policy tool. The same rate applies to the housing market in Sydney as much as Perth, and to homeowners as much as small business owners, farmers and stock market investors. Adjusting the cash rate in order to target something as specific as house prices in Sydney is certainly not the appropriate response.
Rather the RBA has used the cash rate to target inflation. In the broader economy, there has been a significant easing in inflationary pressures. Commodity prices are falling, unemployment is creeping up and, most importantly from the RBA’s perspective, the consumer price index grew at its slowest rate since mid-2012 last year, slipping below the 2-3% target range.
Another common argument you will hear from the bubble-spruikers is that property investors are going to fuel price increases with lower borrowing rates. Over the past year credit growth to housing investors has grown relative to homeowners (<a href="https://www.afr.com/p/national/abs_admits_big_error_on_first_home_ucmamlfo725pG6fBM9JgKL" target="_blank">although subsequent data revisions indicate this difference was initially exaggerated</a>). However, this trend is unlikely to continue with rents steady and yields falling markedly in the past year. Where the average rental yield in Sydney in 2013 was over 4.25% it has fallen to under 3.9% in 2014.
Sydney rental yield:
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/71257/area14mp/image-20150206-28594-1wn5gq7.JPG"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/71257/width668/image-20150206-28594-1wn5gq7.JPG" alt=""></a> 
It is the role of regulators and government, not the RBA, to consider issues such as housing affordability and equitable access. We are seeing other regulators, such as the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA), actively monitoring lending practices as a targeted response to risks in the housing market. Earlier this week, the Prime Minister also signalled that <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/foreign-investment-rules-set-for-overhaul/story-fn3dxiwe-1227205321823">issues around foreign investment would be considered by the government and Foreign Investment Review Board</a> in coming weeks.
Keep these facts in mind as the tea leaves of the RBA’s February Statement on Monetary Policy are read and you hear about the impending property bubble.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/37269/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">Danika Wright is a lecturer in finance at University of Sydney.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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Hot air but no bubble following RBA rate cut: Danika Wright

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Back in November a little-noticed graph in Westpac’s 2014 profit result told an important story: the proportion of bad or worrisome loans on the banks books — in the jargon, stressed exposures as a percentage of TCE or total committed exposures — had dropped below 2008 levels, to 1.24%.
That is to say, Westpac had weathered the storm, the crisis was over. Rounding out the picture of a healthy bank were lower wholesale funding costs, higher net interest margins and record profits. And of course, Westpac and the other big banks had emerged from the crisis with much less competition from smaller and non-bank lenders.
<img src="https://media.crikey.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/tce.png" width="430" height="505">
Which is a roundabout way of saying the big banks did not have a leg to stand on when it came to passing on Tuesday’s 0.25 percentage point cut to the official cash rate by the Reserve Bank.
As though his life depended on it, Treasurer Joe Hockey made that crystal clear in his press conference yesterday afternoon, and you could hear the urgency in his voice on ABC Radio yesterday:
“The flow-through to the Australian economy is significant. And importantly, it must be immediate. And I say again to the Australian banks, pass it on in full now, not just to home owners, but importantly small business and credit cards as well.”
The Commonwealth Bank was the first of the Big Four to move, cutting standard variable home loan rates by 0.25 percentage points (and, interestingly, five-year fixed rates by 0.3 percentage points). Westpac quickly cut by an even higher 0.28 percentage points, and NAB, which has its rates under review, is certain to follow. ANZ customers will have to hold their breath since chief Mike Smith announced a year ago a stand-offish, stick-in-the-mud policy of waiting until Fridays (three days after the RBA meets each month) to announce any changes to interest rates, to stop bank-bashing treasurers, shadow treasurers and journalists berating the bank within seconds of any official rates move.
As they cut rates more or less in lockstep, however, the banks might be permitted a private grumble about mixed signals coming from the federal government and regulators. On one hand, David Murray’s Financial System Inquiry has just recommended the banks tighten home loan risk weights and retain higher levels of capital, to prevent another “too big to fail” moment requiring the kind of public bailout we saw in Australia with the bank deposit and wholesale funding guarantees or (much worse) in the United States, where the government spent trillions buying troubled assets and the Fed took equity stakes in the likes of Citigroup and Goldman Sachs to recapitalise them. The same pressure is felt internationally from the Financial Stability Board for example, and Australia’s big four — still among the world’s biggest banks — are key players in the debate.
Furthermore, the banks are being asked by Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) —  quite rightly, <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2014/11/03/bullying-banks-threaten-govt-over-price-signalling/?wpmp_switcher=mobile" target="_blank">as Crikey has argued</a>  — to toughen lending standards, particularly for those low- or no-deposit home loans originated by mortgage brokers on sales commission incentivised to maximise volume. As house prices surge — entering “new paradigm” territory with the likes of real estate agent John McGrath tipping that inner-Sydney suburbs will be “hot forever” — and self-managed super funds pile in, reducing housing affordability, right when income and jobs growth are receding, the systemic risk represented by some kind of house price slump increases. Tighter “macro-prudential” controls will hurt first home buyers struggling to get into the market, but they are necessary to stop borrowers over-committing on the false premise that prices only move in one direction.
On the other hand, despite this hawkish regulatory tendency, the second the RBA loosens monetary policy, we find ourselves screaming at the banks to “pass it on this instant!”. When it comes to the crunch, we all want easier money.
This story originally appeared on <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/2015/02/04/hockey-bets-it-all-on-a-rate-cut-but-will-the-banks-save-his-bacon/">Crikey</a>.
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Hockey bets it all on a rate cut, but will the banks save his bacon?

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The Australian Electoral Commission released financial disclosure data for the 2013-14 financial year earlier this week, revealing that the single largest donor to the ALP was an unknown China-based person named Zichun Wang. 
Crikey can reveal that Zichun Wang appears to be the deputy general manager of Chinese property development firm Ever Bright Group, responsible for several large developments in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs.
Wang gave $850,000 to the national ALP Secretariat in two parcels that year, the largest donation to either party.
An article about the “mystery Chinese donor” in <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/mystery-chinese-donor-zi-chun-wang-tops-political-donations-with-850000-gift-to-labor-20150202-133ofe" target="_blank">Fairfax</a> provoked much speculation as to the identity of the generous figure, with Business Spectator <a href="https://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2015/2/3/china/chinese-man-tops-list-australian-political-donors?utm_content=SocialFlow&amp;utm_campaign=EditorialSF&amp;utm_source=BusinessSpectator&amp;utm_medium=Twitter">discovering</a> links between Wang and Australian real estate investment.
But Crikey can reveal the man behind the money appears to be Melbourne-based Ever Bright Group’s deputy general manager.
Ever Bright Group is responsible for building a range of large property developments primarily across Melbourne and Shijiazhuang, the largest city in Hebei province. Property developers have been banned from donating to political parties in New South Wales since 2009, but there are no Victorian or federal rules against it.
It is unclear whether Ever Bright Group is state owned, though there is a Chinese state-owned conglomerate of the same name. The company’s published history on its website suggests it may be linked to the state-owned China State Construction Engineering Corporation. Careers website <a href="https://company.zhaopin.com/%E6%B2%B3%E5%8C%97%E6%B0%B8%E6%98%8C%E6%88%BF%E5%9C%B0%E4%BA%A7%E5%BC%80%E5%8F%91%E6%9C%89%E9%99%90%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%E4%BF%9D%E5%AE%9A%E5%88%86%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8_CC432198127.htm" target="_blank">Zhaopin</a> lists EBG as a private company.
The contact address given on the Australian Electoral Commission disclosure form for the donor is given as a housing block for retired Communist Party apparatchiks and bureaucrats in Shijiazhuang, as well as the Hebei Provincial Development and Reform Commission.
When Crikey called Ever Bright Group’s Melbourne office, the receptionist said Wang was currently in China, but gave the same contact email address as that supplied on the AEC return form.
The China-based phone number listed on the AEC form rings out.
The company’s website features a <a href="https://www.ebgcn.com/news1_details.aspx?nid=12021" target="_blank">news story</a> from March 2014 of Wang visiting Melbourne’s Carey Baptist Grammar school. Another <a href="https://ebgcn.com/news1_details.aspx?nid=12040">article</a> shows EBG Chairman Yuan Wan Yong meeting with Prime Minister Tony Abbott and then-Victorian premier Denis Napthine in June 2014.
Ever Bright Group’s Melbourne developments have included the controversial Stonington Mansion Estate in Malvern. The estate was previously used by Deakin University as a campus, but the university sold it to private developers in 2006 in the face of protests from Stonnington City Council and former federal treasurer Peter Costello. Ever Bright paid $30 million for it in late 2010.
The company is also responsible for the $110 million Lucia luxury apartments in South Yarra. Ever Bright’s website says the development should have been completed by late 2014.
<a href="https://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2015/2/3/china/chinese-man-tops-list-australian-political-donors?utm_content=SocialFlow&amp;utm_campaign=EditorialSF&amp;utm_source=BusinessSpectator&amp;utm_medium=Twitter" target="_blank">As revealed by </a><a href="https://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2015/2/3/china/chinese-man-tops-list-australian-political-donors?utm_content=SocialFlow&amp;utm_campaign=EditorialSF&amp;utm_source=BusinessSpectator&amp;utm_medium=Twitter" target="_blank">Business Spectator</a>, a search of usernames attached to Wang’s email address reveals a series of posts on forums by a Hebei-based user dating back to 2007 showing an interest in Australian property investments.
One comment stated: “Very interesting! I’m interested in investing, and will keep an eye on it!”
This article first appeared on <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/" target="_blank">Crikey</a>.
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Meet the mysterious Chinese property developer giving a motza to the ALP

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Though markets had somewhat priced in an Australian interest rate cut yesterday, many analysts and commentators were still left surprised.
The rate had not been cut for 18 months. Over that period commentary varied over the entire gamut of the need for both increased and decreased rates. But the markets have until this point been largely satisfied with the expectation of little change.
This time the markets were concerned. The falling value of the Australian dollar showed their uncertainty about the likelihood of a move (although the direction was fairly well expected).
What can we learn from the market reactions and the extent of the cut?
Norwegian economist Tore Ellingsen and Swedish central banker Ulf Söderström <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/2677943?sid=21105778703003&amp;uid=2&amp;uid=3737536&amp;uid=4">have argued</a> that the behaviour of the <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/y/yieldcurve.asp">yield curve</a> following a rate cut clearly indicates the nature of the surprise experienced by the market. To sum up, if the yield curve simply shifts this represents the extent to which the change in the interest rate reflects changes in the economic environment as assessed by the central bank. On the other hand, if the yield curve rotates this represents communication of changing preferences over the economic aims of the central bank.
This simplification of their theoretical model is useful in the current context. First of all, it is very evident that the Australian yield curve did not rotate in reaction to the news yesterday. There is no evidence the central bank has changed its preferences in relation to its economic aims. The rhetoric in the bank’s statement and the market actions as a result do not show any inconsistency with the policy concerns that all players in the market are familiar with. This should be comforting.
The fact that the yield curve shifted means the markets were surprised by the action to some extent. One mechanism of surprise can be that the markets are waiting for validation of the expert view in the market from the central bank in the face of considerable uncertainty – and this may well be the most compelling argument for the current action.
Many academic economists (myself included) <a href="https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/rba-shadow-board/outcome/2015-02">supported</a> a continuation of the 2.50% rate as the most appropriate path last week. However markets were unsure; in this case the cut seems to have served to increase transparency about policy and the economic situation, helping to anchor expectations. Taken to its extreme the transparency argument suggests that a central bank with strong rhetoric will almost never surprise financial markets, as expectations will be managed via other communication means.
So how does the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) perform in communicating its policy intentions in general?
New research in collaboration with former Treasury economist Edda Claus (based on a <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2012.00539.x/abstract;jsessionid=5A56AE7055E885361CBBEAEDA6877597.f03t01?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&amp;userIsAuthenticated=false">methodology we developed</a>), compared the policy surprises generated at the RBA, Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve over the last two decades, and found the RBA is less likely to surprise.
The RBA appears to be particularly good by international standards in providing clear policy guidance to markets and sticking with a consistent policy agenda. Even during periods of significant market stress, the changes in policy preferences and direction do not surprise the market to the extent evident in Canada and the US.
The global leadership of the US markets may explain some of the greater evidence of surprise in Fed actions, but the comparison between Canada and Australia is of considerable interest. Studies that use institutional factors to measure transparency clearly favour the Bank of Canada as more transparent than the RBA. Yet, the market evidence, which directly addresses the question of “do the markets understand the actions?”, clearly favours the strategies of the RBA.
The actions of the RBA in reducing the cash rate, accompanied by the rhetoric in the press release, seem to be part of the RBA’s consistent moves to clarify its current assessment of the economic situation for the market. This has reassured the market that there is no departure from its policy aims and agenda.
The reassurance that monetary policy is well in hand is likely to be a calming influence in what are unsettled international conditions over which Australia has no control. This has to be a good thing.
Mardi Dungey is professor of Economics and Finance, Associate Dean of Research, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics at University of Tasmania
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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Why it's good for markets to second-guess the RBA: Mardi Dungey

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At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 per cent, effective4 February 2015.
Growth in the global economy continued at a moderate pace in 2014. China's growth was in line with policymakers' objectives. The US economy continued to strengthen, but the euro area and Japanese economies were both weaker than expected. Forecasts for global growth in 2015 envisage continued moderate growth.
Commodity prices have continued to decline, in some cases sharply. The price of oil in particular has fallen significantly over the past few months. These trends appear to reflect a combination of lower growth in demand and, more importantly, significant increases in supply. The much lower levels of energy prices will act to strengthen global output and temporarily to lower CPI inflation rates.
Financial conditions are very accommodative globally, with long-term borrowing rates for several major sovereigns reaching new all-time lows over recent months. Some risk spreads have widened a little but overall financing costs for creditworthy borrowers remain remarkably low.
In Australia the available information suggests that growth is continuing at a below-trend pace, with domestic demand growth overall quite weak. As a result, the unemployment rate has gradually moved higher over the past year. The fall in energy prices can be expected to offer significant support to consumer spending, but at the same time the decline in the terms of trade is reducing income growth. Overall, the Bank's assessment is that output growth will probably remain a little below trend for somewhat longer, and the rate of unemployment peak a little higher, than earlier expected. The economy is likely to be operating with a degree of spare capacity for some time yet.
The CPI recorded the lowest increase for several years in 2014. This was affected by the sharp decline in oil prices at the end of the year and the removal of the price on carbon. Measures of underlying inflation also declined a little, to around 2¼ per cent over the year. With growth in labour costs subdued, it appears likely that inflation will remain consistent with the target over the next one to two years, even with a lower exchange rate.
Credit growth picked up to moderate rates in 2014, with stronger growth in lending to investors in housing assets. Dwelling prices have continued to rise strongly in Sydney, though trends have been more varied in a number of other cities over recent months. The Bank is working with other regulators to assess and contain economic risks that may arise from the housing market.
The Australian dollar has declined noticeably against a rising US dollar over recent months, though less so against a basket of currencies. It remains above most estimates of its fundamental value, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices. A lower exchange rate is likely to be needed to achieve balanced growth in the economy.
For the past year and a half, the cash rate has been stable, as the Board has taken time to assess the effects of the substantial easing in policy that had already been put in place and monitored developments in Australia and abroad. At today's meeting, taking into account the flow of recent information and updated forecasts, the Board judged that, on balance, a further reduction in the cash rate was appropriate. This action is expected to add some further support to demand, so as to foster sustainable growth and inflation outcomes consistent with the target.
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Varying house price trends across cities: RBA Governor Glenn Stevens' rate cut statement

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If it happens, the sale of Harry Triguboff’s Meriton empire will probably stand forever as the biggest residential property deal in Australia, and make the the 81-year-old billionaire the richest person in Australia.
Gina Rinehart’s wealth, which <a href="https://mail.privatemedia.com.au/owa/14.3.181.6/scripts/premium/redir.aspx?C=6Vuz3msqDUSirtnFTsQa2bZBHyilENII1T2qCVyKyyrj6xxQrqmi-0DoOY6coE1pjaWiB7KZWMQ.&amp;URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.brw.com.au%2fp%2flists%2frich-200%2f2014%2fbrw_rich_list_gina_rinehart_m7ycsmzbKAfToPc7CQvJ5N" target="_blank">BRW reckoned was $22 billion in June</a>, is plunging in line with iron ore prices. Her ongoing family lawsuit, the cost of building her Roy Hill mine in the Pilbara, and non-receipt of half a billion dollars from the sale of her Galilee Basin coal interests aren’t helping her fortunes. Only yesterday America's <a href="https://mail.privatemedia.com.au/owa/14.3.181.6/scripts/premium/redir.aspx?C=6Vuz3msqDUSirtnFTsQa2bZBHyilENII1T2qCVyKyyrj6xxQrqmi-0DoOY6coE1pjaWiB7KZWMQ.&amp;URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.forbes.com%2fprofile%2fgina-rinehart%2f" target="_blank">Forbes magazine cut her estimated wealth</a> from US$18 to US$12 billion -- still enough to put Rinehart at the top of its list of the 50 richest Australians, but she's clearly peaked.
Triguboff, on the other hand, is on the rise thanks to booming property prices in Meriton's three key markets -- Sydney, Brisbane and the Gold Coast. BRW's Rich List <a href="https://mail.privatemedia.com.au/owa/14.3.181.6/scripts/premium/redir.aspx?C=6Vuz3msqDUSirtnFTsQa2bZBHyilENII1T2qCVyKyyrj6xxQrqmi-0DoOY6coE1pjaWiB7KZWMQ.&amp;URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.brw.com.au%2fp%2flists%2frich-200%2f2014%2fbrw_rich_list_harry_triguboff_eDO3uvrTTyl8oEGGsqxV4N" target="_blank">put his fortune at $5.5 billion</a>, and Forbes <a href="https://mail.privatemedia.com.au/owa/14.3.181.6/scripts/premium/redir.aspx?C=6Vuz3msqDUSirtnFTsQa2bZBHyilENII1T2qCVyKyyrj6xxQrqmi-0DoOY6coE1pjaWiB7KZWMQ.&amp;URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.forbes.com%2fprofile%2fharry-triguboff%2f" target="_blank">now ranks him as the second-richest Australian</a> after Rinehart, worth US$5.6 billion (up from US$4.3billion a year ago), trumping Frank Lowy and James Packer.
Triguboff's wealth is in Meriton, his privately owned apartment developer he built from scratch and owns outright. Triguboff, still hands-on, is well past the usual retirement age and has no clear succession plan.
Notwithstanding awards including his AO, colour always surrounds Triguboff, an imposing figure famous for blueing endlessly with tough Sydney lord mayors like Frank Sartor and Clover Moore, and near-constant controversy <a href="https://mail.privatemedia.com.au/owa/14.3.181.6/scripts/premium/redir.aspx?C=6Vuz3msqDUSirtnFTsQa2bZBHyilENII1T2qCVyKyyrj6xxQrqmi-0DoOY6coE1pjaWiB7KZWMQ.&amp;URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.smh.com.au%2fbusiness%2fproperty%2fmeritons-war-of-world-tower-20130104-2c8xn" target="_blank">over building and design quality</a>, Meriton's practice of vendor-financing and <a href="https://mail.privatemedia.com.au/owa/14.3.181.6/scripts/premium/redir.aspx?C=6Vuz3msqDUSirtnFTsQa2bZBHyilENII1T2qCVyKyyrj6xxQrqmi-0DoOY6coE1pjaWiB7KZWMQ.&amp;URL=http%3a%2f%2fgoddardsolicitors.com.au%2fmedia%2ffeud-hangs-regis-towers%2f" target="_blank">warring for control of bodies corporate</a>, and on and on. In one <a href="https://mail.privatemedia.com.au/owa/14.3.181.6/scripts/premium/redir.aspx?C=6Vuz3msqDUSirtnFTsQa2bZBHyilENII1T2qCVyKyyrj6xxQrqmi-0DoOY6coE1pjaWiB7KZWMQ.&amp;URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.smh.com.au%2farticles%2f2004%2f11%2f06%2f1099547432537%3ffrom%3dstorylhs" target="_blank">2004 case </a>Triguboff and his wife, Rhonda, were dragged before the Residential Tenancies Tribunal and ordered to pay almost $3,000 compensation to two of their tenants for failing to fix an oven in a Bondi Junction flat.
That 50-year career comes to a head with the touted sale of Meriton -- named after the street in Gladesville, in Sydney's inner-west, where Triguboff pulled off one of his earliest successful unit developments in the '60s.
Triguboff has been talking about selling Meriton for almost a year, most often to a mooted Chinese buyer like huge developer Country Garden, but no investment bank has been appointed to conduct a formal sale price, fueling scepticism in the market that a deal is even happening.
And as Jonathan Chancellor has <a href="https://mail.privatemedia.com.au/owa/14.3.181.6/scripts/premium/redir.aspx?C=6Vuz3msqDUSirtnFTsQa2bZBHyilENII1T2qCVyKyyrj6xxQrqmi-0DoOY6coE1pjaWiB7KZWMQ.&amp;URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.propertyobserver.com.au%2fforward-planning%2finvestment-strategy%2fproperty-news-and-insights%2f39600-harry-triguboff-s-hopes-hit-15-billion-for-meriton" target="_blank">pointed out</a>, the asking price keeps going up, from <a href="https://mail.privatemedia.com.au/owa/14.3.181.6/scripts/premium/redir.aspx?C=6Vuz3msqDUSirtnFTsQa2bZBHyilENII1T2qCVyKyyrj6xxQrqmi-0DoOY6coE1pjaWiB7KZWMQ.&amp;URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.afr.com%2fp%2fbusiness%2frich_lister_harry_triguboff_mulls_dMyzinTOaL5wJ60cTWElzI" target="_blank">$6 billion in April 2014</a> (although that was just the development business) to <a href="https://mail.privatemedia.com.au/owa/14.3.181.6/scripts/premium/redir.aspx?C=6Vuz3msqDUSirtnFTsQa2bZBHyilENII1T2qCVyKyyrj6xxQrqmi-0DoOY6coE1pjaWiB7KZWMQ.&amp;URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.propertyobserver.com.au%2fforward-planning%2finvestment-strategy%2fproperty-news-and-insights%2f37329-meriton-s-harry-triguboff-says-10-billion-is-his-asking-price" target="_blank">$10 billion by October</a>, to $12 billion then -– in an interview with <a href="https://mail.privatemedia.com.au/owa/14.3.181.6/scripts/premium/redir.aspx?C=6Vuz3msqDUSirtnFTsQa2bZBHyilENII1T2qCVyKyyrj6xxQrqmi-0DoOY6coE1pjaWiB7KZWMQ.&amp;URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2fbusiness%2fharry-triguboff-wild-about-a-15bn-deal-on-meriton%2fstory-e6frg8zx-1227197593769" target="_blank">The Australian this week</a> -- the eye-popping figure of $15 billion.
That asking price would make Meriton worth more than listed developers like Mirvac, which has a market capitalisation of $7 billion (a multiple of 15 times next year's expected earnings), Lend Lease (capped at $9 billion or 14 times forward earnings) or Stockland ($10 billion capitalisation, or 16 times earnings). None of these are directly comparable to Meriton, however.
Just before Christmas, for the first time in its history, Meriton <a href="https://mail.privatemedia.com.au/owa/14.3.181.6/scripts/premium/redir.aspx?C=6Vuz3msqDUSirtnFTsQa2bZBHyilENII1T2qCVyKyyrj6xxQrqmi-0DoOY6coE1pjaWiB7KZWMQ.&amp;URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.meriton.com.au%2fblog%2fmeriton-the-year-in-review%2f" target="_blank">put a value</a> on its net property assets including the thousands of apartments it owns, claiming they had leapt in value 21% from $6.1 billion to $7.4 billion in 2014. Meriton also said an external valuation by Grant Samuel (not released) suggested that the whole company was worth between $10 billion and $12 billion when recurring income was taken into account.
There is no way to verify these figures: Triguboff controls the Meriton empire through shareholdings in 10 private companies and dozens of directorships. He would not be interviewed for this story or respond to written questions, but company insiders told Crikey that Triguboff was in no hurry to sell Meriton, and if he were to sell, he would not split the company.
On the one hand, even as some of the froth comes out of housing markets, Triguboff is clearly hoping to get out at the top. On the other hand, the rapidly depreciating currency is making Meriton more attractive to an overseas purchaser.
Morningstar head of property research Tony Sherlock said that, accepting Meriton's stated $7.4 billion net asset value, a rough valuation of the whole business at $10 billion could be supportable, based on a set of plausible assumptions about the development business -- a 15% profit margin on sale of 3,000 units a year worth $600,000 each on average, less 30% tax, creates after-tax profits of $189 million per annum, which, at an earnings multiple of 12-14x, would value the development business at $2.3 billion to $2.6 billion. Whether those numbers are sustainable is anyone's guess.
Based simply on the numbers that have been canvassed publicly, Sherlock says, there will be "no interest at $15 billion, casual whiffs at $10 billion, and strong interest at $8 billion".
Sherlock does not think a sale will happen: "From a risk perspective an overseas buyer would feel more comfortable with the Australian dollar at 75c than 100c. But I think a lot of people think property is expensive, so why would you be rushing in to buy expensive assets? People want some value on the table, but at $15 billion, I think he's leaving none."
This article first appeared on <a href="https://www.crikey.com.au/" target="_blank">Crikey</a>.
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How much is Meriton really worth? Harry Triguboff's sale price possibilities

With $91 million in personal property holdings, are Queensland's politicans really unbiased?

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NAME: Anton Lawrence <img src="/images/2015/01/28/anton-lawrence.jpg" alt="" align="right">
POSITION: Senior Consultant
COMPANY: Atchison Consultants
OFFICE LOCATION: Melbourne
How long have you been in the industry?
26 years.
What's happening in the area you specialise in?
I specialise in helping property fund managers and other related fund managers build their businesses. It's an exciting time with many new players post the GFC and a large number of foreign entities wishing to participate in the Australian market.
Describe the most interesting commercial property you have worked on?
A shopping centre in Chicago which was having issues with a frozen river nearby that was causing the land (and by extension the walls of the centre) to buckle. Being able to view the problem while standing on the ice in the middle of the river provided an interesting perspective.
What are the ingredients to being successful in your job?
Having integrity and being honest in everything you do. Following through for your client. Your name always precedes you.
What aspects of your role do you enjoy the most?
Face to face communication. Technology is making this skill a challenge for some people.
Where would you invest a spare $750,000?
Anywhere but Australian residential property. I don't know when it will undergo a major correction but it will.
Which football team do you support?
I'm a rugby nut and was born in New Zealand. The All Blacks.
What's your favourite app or techno gadget?
I'm pretty boring. Most apps revolve around international news websites.
How do you use social media?
Very sparingly. As mentioned earlier I prefer face to face communication.
You can't read someone's body language too well on Twitter...
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In Profile: Atchison Consultants' senior consultant, Anton Lawrence

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

Joel Robinson

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

IN BRIEF

<ul>
	<li>
	Just three double-storey Sky Homes sit at the top of The Waterline, each with its own private marina berth and rooftop terrace.
	</li>
	<li>
	Construction on The Waterline is complete, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.
	</li>
	<li>
	Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and are priced from $3.65 million.
	</li>
</ul>

<hr />
Lewis Land has opened the first completed sky home for inspection at Harbour Shores, giving buyers their first opportunity to step inside one of just three double-storey residences crowning The Waterline.

Each sky home comes with its own private marina berth, rooftop terrace and Broadwater views, combining the scale of a larger home with direct access to the boating lifestyle that underpins the wider <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366708]

Lewis Land Head of Development Michael Long said the inclusion of a berth with every Sky Home had become increasingly valuable as marina access across the Gold Coast tightened.

“Marina berths are becoming increasingly difficult to secure across the Gold Coast, so including one with every Sky Home makes this a genuinely rare offering,” Long said.

“The private 70-berth marina will accommodate boats up to 12 metres in length and is positioned just 2.5 kilometres from the Broadwater, placing the open ocean only 15 minutes away.

“Being able to step out of your home onto your boat is a rare luxury, and it’s something residents here can look forward to when it opens later this year.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=366709]

The display opening comes as construction completes on The Waterline, with the first residents expected to move in from mid-October.

The three Sky Homes range from 282 sqm to 367 sqm and each feature three bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive kitchens with butler's pantries and large balconies taking in the Broadwater outlook.

Each residence also has three secure basement car spaces and additional storage.

“This is the first opportunity the Gold Coast has had to step into Harbour Shores and see, touch and feel what we’re bringing to life here,” Long said.

“There are only three Sky Homes within The Waterline, ranging in size from 282sqm to 367sqm, with each residence featuring three large bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, expansive custom-built kitchens with butler’s pantry, and large balconies capturing Broadwater views.”

<img alt="Harbour Shores" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="bab65e10-4fab-45e1-92d8-fc56e2ab98ff" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-25%20at%202.00.16%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=XT8q76LsPkw3cYTsvN3JfFDaPLud90PN" />

Residents of The Waterline will have access to a private pool, along with Harbour Shores' wider collection of amenity including a lagoon pool, social clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga facilities and sauna.

Lewis Land partnered with Studio Collective to furnish the completed display, with the interiors designed to demonstrate how the residences could function as permanent homes rather than simply as show apartments.

Studio Collective Director Melissa Park said the surrounding waterways informed the interiors, but in a more restrained way than a traditional coastal scheme.

“We drew inspiration from the canals and coastal surrounds, but our approach was to interpret that subtly through layered materials and a grounded palette of earthy tones, rather than literal coastal references,” Park said.

“We introduced hero moments of green and teal to reference the surrounding waterways, while mirrored elements help reflect natural light.

“The result is a residence that feels elevated yet comfortable, somewhere buyers can genuinely imagine themselves living, entertaining and unwinding.”

Sky Homes are priced from $3.65 million.

Lewis Land is also offering private marina berths with The Residences, its limited collection of three and four-bedroom villas positioned directly along the Harbour Shores waterfront boardwalk.

Three-bedroom villas are priced from $2.99 million, while four-bedroom residences start from $3.19 million.

Harbour Shores is being marketed by Colliers International.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Lewis Land opens sky home display as The Waterline completes at Harbour Shores

St Vincent de Paul Society Housing Australia has filed plans for a major mixed-use housing precinct on the southern edge of the North Sydney CBD, adding another significant proposal to a pocket around North Sydn​ey Station that is quickly becoming one of the LGA's busiest development zones.

The State Significant Development Application covers a 5,990 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/1-19-mackenzie-street-lavender-bay-nsw-2060">1-19 MacKenzie Street and 211 Blues Point Road in Lavender Bay</a>, immediately south of Nor​th Sydney Station and between the commercial core and the lower-rise Lavender Bay Heritage Conservation Area.

Designed by Wardle, the proposal would deliver a new residential tower comprising 88 build-to-sell apartments and 19 affordable apartments, alongside a separate co-living building with 57 rooms and a building manager's studio.

It would also see the significant restoration and upgrade of St Francis Xavier Catholic Church, the adaptive reuse of the former school building, new parish facilities, retail, a new public square and around 1,000 sqm of publicly accessible open space.

<img alt="Vinnies North Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d5dd7f87-a617-463e-b577-17541e01f0e9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.13%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4R8TsFN3P_LrrXO2HswTOIrx2blil8lh" />

The project is seeking a concurrent rezoning of the site to R4 High Density Residential and an increase in the maximum building height to allow a tower reaching RL120, or up to 20 storeys. The proposal was progressed through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

The build-to-sell component will be weighted toward larger apartments, with just six one-bedroom apartments compared with 31 two-beds, 43 three-beds and eight four-bedroom residences.

The 19 affordable apartments will comprise two studios, 15 one-bedroom apartments and two two-bedroom apartments, taking the total apartment component to 107 residences before the 58 co-living rooms are included.

<img alt="Vnnies" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7d568ca5-cb90-4e18-96c6-d9795dba0c56" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.10.05%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=GY2R5M9VtQh0EKy1vajaea19PSLOPuRD" />

Wardle's design for the Vinnies site has sought to negotiate that emerging high-rise context while retaining the lower-scale character of MacKenzie Street and the adjoining heritage conservation area.

The main building adopts a three-storey podium and tower arrangement, with the podium aligned to the ridgeline and front setback of St Francis Xavier Church.&nbsp;Wardle has designed the podium with colonnades, seating, recessed entries and active ground-floor frontages, with sandstone-toned precast concrete and face brick referencing the materiality of the existing church.

The tower then steps back eight metres to the south and six metres to the north before rising in a sculpted form comprising four interlocking quadrants. Wardle has also introduced rounded forms and chamfered corners to reduce the tower's perceived bulk and improve view sharing with neighbouring development sites.

Resident facilities and outdoor areas are planned at the separation between the podium and tower at Level 3, oriented toward Sydney Harbour and the CBD skyline.

The tower itself will feature a glass reinforced concrete facade, with recessed balconies and deep reveals used both to provide shading and privacy and frame views toward the harbour and city. The lower levels take a different architectural approach, using brick and sandstone-toned finishes intended to establish a stronger relationship with St Francis Xavier Church. The Church itself will be conserved and upgraded for its continued use, while the former school building will be adaptively reused as part of the co-living component.

<img alt="Lavendar Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2d4418ad-90aa-4d49-af93-c80b140aea80" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%209.09.47%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Kv4gzbsACaGvZSRuaqcfGC54jEJRXIDJ" />

&nbsp;

The proposal adds to an increasingly concentrated pipeline of residential development around Blue Street, MacKenzie Street and Lavender Bay.

Just west of the site, Central Element lodged plans earlier this year for one of the most significant residential developments proposed in Lavender Bay in recent years.

Central Element's SJB-designed scheme at 64-66 Lavender Street and 3-7 Middlemiss Street would deliver 163 apartments across two towers rising 23 and 32 storeys, replacing five existing apartment buildings containing 32 homes. The project also forms part of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-central-element-reveals-lavender-bay-apartment-plans?utm_source=chatgpt.com" rel="noopener" target="_blank">First look: Central Element reveals Lavender Bay apartment plans</a>

Immediately around North Sy​dney Station, another two significant proposals have emerged at 5 and 15 Blue Street.

Zurich Australian Insurance Properties is seeking to adaptively reuse its longstanding commercial building at 5 Blue Street, directly above North Sydney Station, rather than demolishing the structure.

Its SSDA proposes converting the building into a 14-storey mixed-use development with 62 apartments and 86 co-living rooms, together with ground-floor retail and a major refurbishment of Blue Street Plaza. The application is currently at the Response to Submissions stage.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-zurich-targets-north-sydney-office-conversion-with-148-unit-proposal-above-metro-station">First look: Zurich targets North Sydney office conversion with 148-unit proposal above Metro station</a>

&nbsp;

First look: Vinnies files for 20-storey Lavender Bay apartment tower as North Sydney housing pocket heats up

When the opportunity arose for South Australian developer Palumbo to return to Kent Town, where it had previously delivered East Park Apartments and the East 
Rundle Apartments, it wasn't one the longstanding developer-builder was going to pass up.

The decision was quickly vindicated, with more than 30 apartments sold within the first month of launching <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/royal-apartments-kent-town-2-8-north-terrace-kent-town-sa-5067">Royal Apartments</a> to the market.

The 206-apartment development, which will bring significant new supply to Adelaide's tightly held eastern city fringe, also gives <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/palumbo">Palumbo</a> the opportunity to bring new life to one of Kent Town's most recognisable watering holes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376073]

Royal Apartments incorporates the historic Royal Hotel, a venue Palumbo Managing Director Daniel Palumbo said has a longstanding connection with the local community.

"Everyone in the area has history with the Royal Hotel," Palumbo told Apartments.com.au.

"It was quite an active pub and social gathering place for locals. We want to bring it back to its former glory."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376072]

The wider development will comprise two residential towers alongside the restored hotel, sitting on North Terrace opposite the Adelaide Park Lands.

For Palumbo, the project also marks a return to familiar territory.

The developer completed East Park Apartments next door more than a decade ago and jumped at the opportunity to develop in Kent Town again when the Royal Hotel site became available.

"The opportunity emerged, and we moved to secure the site," Palumbo said.

"We were approached by the previous landowner, who said they had extensive commitments in Sydney and weren't in a position to deliver the project.

"We took over the site and within six months recut the design scheme to be more in keeping with the type of development we want to bring to Adelaide.

"Now we're on the market and those changes have really resonated with local buyers."

That has translated into a strong start to sales, with 33 apartments transacting in the project's first 35 days.

Palumbo said the early purchaser profile had been consistent with the group's traditional focus on owner-occupiers rather than investor-led apartment stock.

"Local owner-occupiers have always been our market," he said.

"There are always some investors, but we've never developed what would be called traditional development stock. Owner-occupiers are very much our market."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376068]

The buyer mix has been diverse so far, with downsizers and younger professionals both accounting for a significant portion of early sales.

South Australia's current stamp duty settings, which allow&nbsp;eligible homeowners in South Australia aged 60 savings of up to $103,830 on stamp duty when they downsize to a new property valued at up to $2 million,&nbsp;have helped encourage downsizer activity, while younger buyers in their late 20s and early 30s have been attracted to the opportunity to live immediately outside the CBD while still being able to walk into the city.



Location has been a major part of the proposition for both buyer cohorts.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376075]

Royal Apartments sits on North Terrace directly opposite the Adelaide Park Lands, with residents able to walk through the parklands toward the East End, Rundle Street and Rundle Mall.

Apartments have been positioned to capture views across the parklands, Adelaide skyline, Botanic Gardens and Adelaide Hills.

Palumbo believes the scarcity of developable land along this section of the Park Lands makes the site particularly difficult to replicate.

"There's very few allotments on that side that can be developed," he said.

"If this location was in New York and you were sitting on Central Park, you'd be talking about a $60 million apartments."

Royal Apartments will offer a broad mix of residences, ranging from one-bedroom apartments through to four-bedroom sub-penthouses and penthouses.

Current listings include one-bedroom apartments from $680,000, while larger three and four-bedroom residences are priced around $2.5 million.

Residents will have access to a swimming pool, gym, barbecue and recreation areas, residents' lounge and dining space, and a communal deck.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6109 project_image_fid=376067]

The apartments will feature generous balconies, while secure parking, bicycle storage and storage cages will also be provided.

A porte-cochère-style arrival and drop-off area has also resonated with buyers, particularly those attracted to being able to walk into the CBD during the day while retaining secure vehicle access at home.

Palumbo is acting as developer, architect and builder on Royal Apartments, continuing the vertically integrated model it has used across its South Australian portfolio.

The group was also behind the $150 million Sofitel Adelaide, the 251-room five-star hotel and residential tower which opened in 2021.

Palumbo said Royal's launch had come at an interesting time for the broader Adelaide apartment market.

Buyer confidence had initially been impacted by uncertainty surrounding the Federal Budget and broader economic conditions, but Palumbo believes sentiment is beginning to improve against a backdrop of significant investment flowing into South Australia.

He pointed to increased activity across defence and resources, including Olympic Dam, as potential long-term drivers of the state's economy and housing market.

"Money is starting to flow into Adeliade, significant amounts as Adelaide bucks the trend of the rest of the country.," Palumbo said.

"There's a lot of activity in the economy over the next decade. I think more investment will come into this market."

Early works on Royal Apartments are expected to commence this year, with major construction activity and cranes anticipated on site from early next year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6109]

Palumbo's return to Kent Town strikes early chord with buyers

Go-to builder-developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/graya">GRAYA</a> is continuing to bulk out its already impressive and diverse apartment portfolio across South East Queensland. Their latest milestone is securing development approval for Silk, its boutique riverfront apartment development in St Lucia.

The approval clears&nbsp;the way for the team to begin construction planning for the 22-residence project.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/silk-st-lucia-16-18-sandford-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">Silk</a> will rise 15 levels from an 810 sqm site at 16-18 Sandford Street, occupying a prominent bend of the Brisbane River with a prized northern aspect across Orleigh Park toward the Brisbane CBD.

The approved scheme will comprise 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences, continuing GRAYA's move into larger-format apartment developments targeting Brisbane's prestige owner-occupier market.

The project has been designed around the site's broad river frontage and dual-direction views, with GRAYA prioritising larger residences, privacy and outlook over apartment yield.

<img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="aa5c2349-f96c-4914-a812-1f2cd6827af8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.44%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WY0vEU_7vYjeRJKQHiCwFdMxu8PvFh52" />

GRAYA Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Rob Gray said the project had been shaped around local homeowners wanting to remain in St Lucia without maintaining a traditional family home.

"St Lucia is one of those suburbs people do not want to leave," Gray said.

"They know the river, the trees, UQ, the golf course, Toowong and Indooroopilly, and that familiarity is hard to replace.

"True riverfront opportunities here are exceptionally scarce. What we have designed at Silk is a way to stay in the suburb people love, with the scale and privacy of a private home and far less to maintain.

"This is not typical apartment product. It is a proper home on the river, and that is exactly what this market has been missing."

The approval comes as new apartment development continues to increase across the St Lucia and neighbouring Toowong corridor, although direct riverfront sites remain considerably more tightly held.

GRAYA Co-founder and Managing Director Andrew Gray said securing the approval had removed a significant element of development risk from Silk.

"Genuine riverfront sites of this quality in St Lucia are not something that comes up regularly," Gray said.

"The approval removes a substantial layer of execution risk, and the location underwrites demand in a way very few inner-city sites can.

"The fundamentals here are as strong as anything we have assessed in Brisbane."

<img alt="Silk St Lucia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d0f3d734-65e1-48e8-8ed3-2e0715ffcdd9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-26%20at%208.25.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sOLSs_jdHkXLWbBKzRyayf5BfTb2vPsD" />

Silk will see GRAYA return to a stretch of the Brisbane River where it already has recent construction experience. The vertically integrated group recently completed ARC in neighbouring Toowong as builder for developer Spyre, delivering the riverfront project on a constrained site.

GRAYA will take a different role at Silk, controlling the project from design and development through construction and aftercare under its vertically integrated model.

The development will include a gym and resident leisure areas at ground level, integrated with the river's edge.

Silk joins a growing pipeline for GRAYA across Brisbane and the Gold Coast, which includes Enclave, The Gallery, Coral and Ripple.

The developer-builder has also recently lodged plans for its largest project to date, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-silo-19-chester-street-newstead-qld-4006">The Silo</a>, a proposed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/graya-buys-frasers-newstead-site-plans-the-silo-between-james-street-and-gasworks-precincts">$700 million mixed-use development</a> in Brisbane's James Street precinct.

Silk is expected to predominantly target local owner-occupiers and prestige buyers seeking a permanent riverfront home in Brisbane's inner west.

Registrations of interest are now open, with further details on the project and construction program to be released as it progresses.

<hr />
<h2>SILK PROJECT FACTS</h2>

Developer-builder: GRAYA

Project: Silk

Location: 16-18 Sandford Street, St Lucia

Apartments: 22

Built form: 15 levels

Site: 810 sqm riverfront holding

Mix: 16 split-floor and six full-floor residences

Status: Development approved

Next step: Construction planning underway

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152168]

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