<html><body>
The April retail update came in weaker than expected, sales dipping 0.1% in the month compared to consensus forecasts of a 0.2% gain.
Annual growth slowed to 2.8% per year, the slowest pace since mid 2018.
The timing of public holidays may have been a factor in April, with Easter falling in the month this year and the ANZAC day public holiday a week later encouraging many to take leave.
While the ABS tries to adjust for these shifting seasonal effects, there may have been more of a dampening effect compared to previous years.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/4/retail%201.jpg" alt="">
That said, both the sub-category and state detail in April point to wealth effect spillovers from the Sydney and Melbourne led housing market corrections weighing on sales.
In particular, household goods retail sales – a bellwether for discretionary 'durables' spending – fell 0.9% in the month and NSW and Vic both recorded more pronounced 0.4% declines.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/4/retail%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/4/retail%202.jpg" alt="">
The remaining sub-category detail shows a 0.2% gain in the large basic food retail category and more mixed results elsewhere – clothing down 1.2% month and cafes &amp; restaurants down 0.7% month but both coming off sold gains in March; and department stores up 1.8% month and 'other retailing' up 0.8% month but both coming off declines last month.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/4/retail%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:  <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/4/retail%203.jpg" alt="">
Needless to say it pays to look through the monthly volatility.
Looking at sales across the major states: NSW –0.4%mth, +1.2%yr; Vic –0.4%mth, +3.7%yr; Qld +0.7%mth, +6.0%yr; SA +0.6%mth, +0.5%yr; and WA +0.1%mth, +2.6%yr.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/4/retail%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/4/retail%204.jpg" alt="">
Looking by channel, online sales look to have posted a reasonably solid 1.1% gain in the April month, although the annual pace of growth in this segment continues to slow. 
The breakdown by retailer size shows weakness concentrated amongst small retailers, sales in the segment down 0.9%mth. Large non-food retailers saw a flat result while large food retailers recorded a 0.6% gain.
Overall the April retail update is clearly on the soft side, marking a weak start to the June quarter and with some worrying signs that wealth effect drags may be intensifying.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/4/retail%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/4/retail%205.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/4/retail%206.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/4/retail%206.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/4/retail%207.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/4/retail%207.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/4/retail%208.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/4/retail%208.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/4/retail%209.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/4/retail%209.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/4/retail%2010.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/4/retail%2010.jpg" alt="">
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist for Westpac
</body></html>

Matthew_Hassan-HHWHptmrw4

Australian retail sales soften again: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
The correction in Australian dwelling prices that has been running since late 2017 is showing clearer signs of moderating in early 2019.
The CoreLogic home value index, covering the eight major capital cities, fell 0.4% in May to be down 8.4%yr. After tracking a 10% annualised pace of decline between Nov and March, price slippage has been running at a more moderate 6.7% annual pace over the last two months.
While that is a clear improvement it is still well short of stabilisation.
Prices nationally are now 10.7% below their Sep 2017 peak. The current price adjustment has now been running for 20mths putting, eclipsing the much shallower 2010-11 correction.
More major capital cities recorded price declines in May. The moderation in price falls continues to be slightly more pronounced in the Sydney and Melbourne markets.
The annual pace of declines in these markets improved for the first time since early 2017 but is still tracking a solid pace, –10.7%yr in Sydney and –9.9%yr in Melbourne with cumulative declines of 14.9% and 11.8% respectively.
Performances across other markets continue to be more varied. Perth's longer running correction accelerated again, prices down –1%mth, –8.8%yr. Brisbane, which was stable through 2018, has continued to see price slippage in 2019, prices down –0.5%yr, –2.3%yr. Adelaide remains an isolated area of calm amid the sea of red, prices nudging 0.2% higher in the month to be up 0.4%yr, essentially stable.
Across the smaller markets: Hobart is coming off its boom sharply with a second month of price declines paring annual price growth back to 3.4%yr, well down on the double digit pace nine months ago. Canberra has been steadier, prices dipped 0.2%, annual growth holding just under 2.5%yr.
The mining-dominated Darwin market is mirroring the difficult conditions in Perth, its long-running correction also re-accelerating with a 1.6% decline in the month taking prices down 8.6%yr to their lowest level in over 12yrs.
The dwelling type detail continues to show units outperforming houses slightly in recent months although both segments are showing a similar moderation in the pace of price declines.
The breakdown by tier shows a more pronounced moderation in price declines across properties in the top tier, albeit with this group coming from a weaker starting point. In Sydney, the three tiers have been tracking closely over the last 3mths. Bottom tiers are outperforming in Melbourne and Brisbane, with prices in these segments close to stabilisation.
The moderation in price declines is consistent with the improved tone from auction markets in recent months, with a notable lift post-election, the result meaning changes to the tax treatment of investor housing are now off the table.
With interest rates set to move lower, some relaxation in regulatory guidelines for loan assessments likely and increased Federal assistance for first home buyers, prospects for an eventual stabilisation in prices are looking considerably better, boding well for an eventual stabilisation in prices.
MATTHEW HASSAN is a senior economist for Westpac
<div>
<div data-component="sticky.side.nav">
<div data-component="tag.box"> </div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

Price adjustment hits 20 month mark but correction continues to slow: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION
The March retail report showed a slightly better than expected monthly gain but a materially weaker than expected result for March quarter sales volumes, the latter being the more important takeaway.
Monthly sales posted a 0.3% gain, beating expectations of a 0.2% rise with Feb’s surprisingly firm 0.8% gain marked up to a 0.9%. Annual growth lifted from 3.2%yr to 3.5%yr.
That’s where the good news ends though. The wash up for the quarter as a whole showed all of these gains in nominal sales were due to higher prices with sales volumes declining.
Real retail sales dipped 0.1% in Q1, coming in well below consensus expectations of a 0.3% gain with the quarter on a par with the flat result in Q4. Annual growth has slowed to 1.1%yr but with a cumulative gain of just 0.2% over the last three quarters is in danger of dropping below 1%yr next quarter.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/31/New%20Project%2022.jpg" alt="">
The undershoot vs expectations was due to a stronger than expected rise in retail prices which rose, up +0.8%qtr vs +0.7%qtr in Q4. The sub-category detail shows a particularly big rise in food prices (+1.4%qtr vs 1.2% in Q4). Non food retail prices posted a 0.2%qtr gain.
The detail also points to a material slowing in sales across sub-categories associated with ‘big ticket’ discretionary spend, consistent with a wealth effect drag from the housing market correction. In particular, household goods retail volumes declined 0.6% in the quarter to be flat over the year, a marked slowdown on the 5.4%yr growth seen this time last year. Department stores also recorded a contraction, sales volumes down 1.2%qtr, and –0.7%yr. Other non food categories, mostly ‘small ticket’ discretionary, recorded small gains for the quarter and over the year. Cafes and restaurants were the only bright spot, recording a 1%qtr gain in Q1 to be up 1.4%yr.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/31/New%20Project%2023.jpg" alt="">
By state, NSW was the only state to post a gain in Q1, up 0.6%qtr, but was coming off a bigger 1.1%qtr fall in Q4, annual sales growth slowing to just 0.9%yr. Results across the other states were: Vic –0.3%qtr, +2.3%yr; Qld –0.1%qtr, +1.5%yr; SA –0.4%qtr, –0.4%yr; WA –0.6%qtr, –0.7%yr and Tas –0.9%qtr, +1.7%yr. The broad based weakness in the quarter suggests that it is not just about spillovers from the correction in housing markets which to date has been largely confined to NSW, Vic and WA.
Looking by channel, online sales look to have posted a 0.7% gain in the March month, annual growth slowing to 'just' 12.7%yr, a subdued gain for this segment.
Overall the March retail report points to downside risks to the wider consumer spending estimates in the March quarter GDP, the headwinds that emerged in the second half of last year clearly carrying into 2019. 
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist for Westpac. 
Read full article <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/May/er20190507BullRetailQ1.pdf" target="_blank">'Australian retail sales Q1'</a>.
</body></html>

Retail volume results materially weaker than expected: Westpac's Matthew Hassan 

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION
Dwelling approvals fell 15.5% in February, unwinding a 19.1% jump in February that reflected a big spike in high rise approvals. That was in line with Westpac's forecast but a touch weaker than the consensus view of a 12.5% decline.
Headline moves over the last two months have been driven by 'high rise' units with approvals in the segment more than doubling between January and February and nearly halving again between February and March. Approvals in this segment are still well above Jan's extreme low and about 10% above the average level over the three months to January.
Outside of the high rise segment, the underlying trend looks to be weak. Total approvals ex high rise (covering both detached houses and mid-low rise) looks to be down a further 2% in the month following a 4% fall in February and down around 19% year. Private detached house approvals declined 3.2% month, to be down 18.3% year. Mid-low rise unit approvals look to have risen slightly by around 1% in the March month but are still down by around 20% year.
The state detail also points to a soft underlying tone. The unwinding high rise spike was concentrated in NSW (–27% month, –23% year) and Vic (–27% month, –36% year). Excluding high rise, NSW posted a 10% month gain in the month but was coming off a much weaker January with approvals still down 7.7% on their Dec level. Vic approvals ex high rise declined 1.9% month but is down a milder 3.5% compared to Dec. Approvals declined the other major eastern states, the slide over the last year now looking brutal in Qld (–2.4% month, –35.9% year); much milder in SA (–2% month, –11.5% year). WA bucked the wider trend this month, posting a surprisingly strong 4.8% month gain to be up 20.7% year, very much against the odds.
The total value of renovation approvals fell 8.7% month to be up 3.6% on a rolling three month average basis, a reasonable uptrend still in place. The state detail continues to point to gains coming through more strongly in Qld and WA.
The total value of non res building approvals rose 2.1% month but is still down 0.5% year on a rolling three month basis. Conditions remain mixed across both segments but the state split points to slowing in NSW and Vic partially offset by gains in Qld and WA.
Overall the March dwelling approvals update again points to weakening underlying momentum, highlighting downside risks to the near term outlook for new dwelling construction. So far the weakness mostly just cancels out the lift from the February high rise spike. However clearly there are downside risks to the outlook if the weak momentum continues in coming months, particularly if we also start to see approved high rise projects get put on hold.
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist for Westpac.
Download the full report: <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/May/er20190503BullDwellApprovMar.pdf" target="_blank">Australian dwelling approvals March' (PDF 327kb)</a>.
</body></html>

Dwelling construction forecast is weak: Westpac's Matthew Hassan 

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Westpac expects falling house prices to see a significant ‘wealth effect’ drag on Australian consumer demand this year and next. However, the exact nature and size of this effect remains a major area of uncertainty. What does the latest evidence show?
<div>
For a start, the housing correction is starting to have a clearer impact on the household balance sheet. Latest data shows the total value of dwelling assets fell $270bn over 2018, reflecting both lower prices and slower additions to the dwelling stock. The decline amounts to 40% of a year’s income. Relative to income that is about half the size of the peak to trough falls seen in the GFC and 2011-12 correction.
Recall that the ‘signature’ of a wealth effect drag is a fall in net worth accompanied by a rise in the savings rate, the latter meaning that spending is growing at a slower pace than incomes. Also recall that the shock effect should be confined to states experiencing material price declines (NSW, Victoria and WA).
Westpac compiles estimates of household net worth and savings rates by state based on a range of annual and quarterly benchmarks. These ‘indicative’ estimates show, as expected, considerably larger falls in net worth in NSW and Vic with declines closer to 60% of annual income. They also highlight the extent of the prior run up with net worth in both states still well above 2015 levels.
On savings, the estimates point to declines in NSW and Vic consistent with a wealth effect boost to spending rather than a drag. Any hint of a turn in Q1 will be a key pointer to how this effect may play out.
However even before that there are some clues of a shift coming through in the composition of spending. In a detailed article on wealth effects in its March Bulletin, the RBA set out empirical estimates of the size of this effect noting that the effect appeared to be more pronounced for particular spending categories: namely, vehicles, durables and other discretionary items. A composite measure of growth in ‘wealth sensitive’ items already shows a swing to outright declines in per capita spending. While the weakness still looks to be fairly mild to date it is more pronounced in NSW, Vic and WA.
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist for Westpac
</div>
</body></html>

The wealth effects, the latest evidence: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
There’s no shortage of talk about house prices. How much further will they fall? When will the market stabilise? Is it time to get in? 
What we know is national capital city dwelling prices have fallen 6.8% since peaking in October 2017, led by Sydney and Melbourne following strong prior price booms. 
But how much has affordability actually improved? 
It’s an important question, not just for potential buyers and nervous sellers. That’s because with the price adjustment in Sydney and Melbourne continuing and demand from property investors unlikely to return soon, an eventual stabilisation of the market depends heavily on the response of owner occupiers to improving affordability – and it seems there’s more to do to generate a lift in demand. 
There is little doubt that housing affordability and consumer sentiment towards housing are closely linked. Our previous research established a particularly close relationship between the “time to buy a dwelling” index and an affordability measure that incorporates both deposit requirements and mortgage repayments.<img src="https://www.westpac.com.au/content/dam/public/wbc/news/images/article/2019/03/TimetoBuy%20(002).png" style="font-size: 12.16px;">
<a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/February/WestpacHousingPulseFebruary2019.pdf" data-s-object-id="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/australia/2019/february/westpachous_1">Latest readings on both measures show</a> buyer sentiment lifting a little in response to some easing in affordability pressures, although the gap to long run averages indicates affordability is still not back to “normal”. After hitting a seven-year high of 23.3% in late 2017, the proportion of average household income required to finance the purchase of a median priced dwelling has declined to just below 22% in early 2019 to be near the levels seen in late 2016. 
That’s partly because many factors feed into affordability with price moves, mortgage rates and incomes key. 
In other periods of price corrections, namely the late 1980s and early 1990s, the GFC and the 2011–13 interest rate tightening cycle, falling rates and income growth helped restore affordability.
In contrast, this adjustment is expected to see much less assistance from rates and is occurring against a backdrop of weak income growth, implying that price declines will need to do most of the “heavy lifting” to generate an improvement in affordability. 
And there’s likely more lifting to do, even though Westpac now expects the RBA to cut rates help affordability too. 
<img src="https://www.westpac.com.au/content/dam/public/wbc/news/images/article/2019/03/AusdwellingPrices%20(002).png">
Using some indicative estimates of how much further prices may need to move by looking at the price change required to return affordability to its 20-year average points to about a further 5% decline required nationally. In NSW and Victoria, more substantive moves in the 5-10% range are likely to be required, while other states should require milder moves.
While the picture differs across cities, and between houses and units in most cases, price adjustments in the key Sydney and Melbourne markets still look to have some way to run. 
That will be disappointing for those hoping for stabilisation to emerge but will be encouraging for those looking to get into what were previously very expensive markets.
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist for Westpac
</body></html>

How much more affordable is housing now? Westpac's Matthew Hassan

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION
Dwelling approvals jumped 19.1% in Feb driven by a big spike in high rise approvals.
The spike is almost certainly a one-off making the headline result a misleading 'rogue'. Indeed, approvals ex high rise look to have been significantly weaker than expected. The consensus forecast going into the release was for total approvals to decline 1.8%. Approvals ex high rise instead look to have fallen 3.4%.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/5/New%20Project%202.jpg" alt="">
The detail showed a 3.6% fall in detached house approvals in the month, the 3 month rolling average down 4% on Nov and 10.9%yr, the significant deterioration since mid 2018 clearly carrying into early 2019. Around units, our estimates suggest 'high rise' approvals jumped 135% in the month, led by spectacular rises in NSW (+130% month) and Vic (+213%) the latter coming from an extreme low in Jan.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/5/New%20Project%203.jpg" alt="">
The fact that both states recorded big gains indicates the spike is not due to just a single project. However, the gain comes very much against the run of play for housing and this specific segment and runs counter to the evidence we have around site purchases. As such it is almost certainly a 'rogye' result. Medium density units were down about 2.4% in the month.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/5/New%20Project%204.jpg" alt="">
The high rise spike dominated the state breakdown, with big gains in NSW and Vic. Ex high rise, approvals look to have been particularly weak in NSW with apparent declines in Vic and WA as well but a solid gain in Qld. All major states are seeing significant declines in non high rise approvals – on a rolling 3mth basis, NSW is down 14.5%yr, Vic is down 12.6%yr, Qld is down 22%yr and WA is down 13.2%yr.
The total value of renovation approvals rose 4.4%mth to be up 3.6% on a rolling 3mth average basis, with a decent uptrend in place. The state detail shows solid gains coming through in Qld and WA but a less convincing uptrend in NSW and Vic.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/5/New%20Project%205.jpg" alt="">
The total value of non res building approvals rose 2.1%mth but is still down 8%yr on a rolling 3mth basis. Abstracting from monthly volatility, which is never that easy for this segment, the last few months has shown some lift in offices and steady reads for retail, warehouses and industrial approvals but softer reads for hotels, education, health and other social sectors.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/5/New%20Project%206.jpg" alt="">
Overall the monthly rise in total dwelling approvals should clearly be ignored – Australia's high rise building boom is not about to reignite any time soon, with the key takeaway instead the more disappointing momentum evident in non high rise approvals.
Other housing market indicators have hinted at some stabilisation in conditions in recent weeks, although the evidence remains only tentative. The flow through to new construction could be much slower given funding difficulties and the substantial increases in new supply coming through.
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist for Westpac
</body></html>

Dwelling approvals spike is a rogue one: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION 
The deepening market downturn is starting to weigh more heavily on consumer sentiment towards housing. Both the complexion of this impact and the extent to which market weakening has outstripped weakness in housing-related sentiment provide important clues about some of the dynamics at play.
Consumers’ housing-related sentiment has deteriorated since November with negatives around price expectations and elevated risk aversion more than offsetting the boost from improving affordability. While sentiment overall is downbeat, the market performance has been markedly weaker than sentiment over the last year, suggesting that other factors are impacting. In particular, a tightening in loan standards from some lenders may have compounded what were already negative market dynamics following a drop in investor activity and initial price correction.
Nationally, the Westpac Melbourne Institute ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index has slipped 1.8% since November but is still up 8.6% year on year. Improving affordability continues to see a lift in NSW and Vic, the latter reaching a five year high in Feb. However buyer sentiment is still sub-par in these states while it has become a little more unsettled in other states.
Price expectations have been the big mover. The Westpac–MI Consumer House Price Expectations Index posted a sharp 11% drop over the three months to February, hitting a new historical low since we began compiling the index in May 2009. Weakness remains more pronounced in NSW and Vic, with just over half of consumers in these states expecting prices to be lower in a year’s time. That said, the more positive views in other states are also starting to show signs of softening with notable pull backs in Qld and WA.
These two aspects of housing-related sentiment highlight the ‘dynamics’ of the housing cycle. Price declines are currently dominating with negative expectations around prices likely to continue feeding into investor weakness and encourage buyers to delay purchases. At some point though, improving affordability should generate a bigger lift in buyer sentiment and a pick-up in demand that stabilises the market – exactly where that point is and how we get there remain more open questions.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/Housing_Pulse/Housing_Pulse_Bites/2019-02/Housing-pulse-bite-2019-02-1.jpg" alt="">
Matthew Hassan is senior economist at Westpac. 
Read the full report: <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/February/WestpacHousingPulseFebruary2019.pdf" target="_blank">Westpac Housing Pulse</a>. 
</body></html>

What consumer sentiment is telling us about the housing downturn: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION
Housing finance approvals posted a further decline in Jan, albeit a slightly milder one than in previous months for owner occupiers.
The total number of owner occupier loan approvals ex refi declined 1.2%mth, slightly better than the consensus forecasts of a 2% decline. As always, January housing data should be treated with caution due to the summer holiday disruptions. Approvals are still weak on a year ago, down 13.6%. Notably, what was initially an investor-led cycle is now seeing clear weakness in owner occupier activity – both the value and number of loans.
The value of investor loans ex refi posted a larger 4.1%mth fall, this component showing no real moderation, the decline in line with falls over the previous five monnths. The monthly value of loans to this segment is now down 28.6%yr.
The combined total value of housing finance approvals across both owner occupier and investor segments (and excluding refi) declined 2.1%mth to be down 20.6%yr.
Construction finance approvals fared a little better, dipping just 0.2% in the month but still down over 15%yr. Approvals for the purchase of newly built dwellings, including 'off the plan apartment sales' were down sharply though, –9.5%mth, –27.6%yr and a 4yr low.
By state the number of owner occupier approvals excl refi showed the biggest falls in NSW (–4.9%mth, –18.3%r) and Qld (–2.4%mth, –16.6%yr), with approvals down only 0.7%mth in WA and SA, and up slighly in Vic (+0.4%mth, –15.4%yr) and Tas (+2.4%mth, +10.6%yr), the latter the only state seeing gains on a year ago.
Overall, the January update was soft but not quite as soft as expected for owner occupier activity. However, given the less reliable nature of January housing data this is not enough evidence to signal a shift in the clear weakening trend over the second half of 2018.
Other more recent market indicators suggest weak conditions have extended into the new year. Auction clearance rates have been around the low 50s for Sydney and and high 40s for Melbourne. As noted in our recent <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/37494">article</a>, both markets are seeing abnormally high pre-auction withdrawal rates at the moment.
Adjusting for this (and allowing for preliminary and seasonal bias), the latest weekly clearance rates are around 48% for Sydney and 46% for Melbourne. While low, these are somewhat improved from reads late last year which were in the 30s and low 40s respectively.
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist for Westpac
</body></html>

Australian housing finance rout continues: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION 
Weekly auction results are by far the most timely gauge of conditions across Australia’s housing markets.
For observers of the Sydney and Melbourne markets, a Sunday isn’t complete without checking the weekend clearance rate. That said, to get the right take from these figures it’s increasingly important to apply a few adjustments first. This note gives some quick tips on how to do this and how to judge whether a result really is strong, weak or indifferent.
In interpreting weekly clearance rates, there are two main effects we need to adjust for – ‘early result’ bias and seasonality – and a third aspect that, once incorporated, gives a clearer guide to price conditions. 
Early results skew high 
Unsurprisingly, successful auctions tend to get reported earlier. Patterns depend according to data provider but for CoreLogic, preliminary results are published on the Sunday then a final estimate on the following Thursday. The difference in terms of clearance rates is on average 3pts for Sydney and 1pt for Melbourne. However, the weaker market over the last 18 months has seen more slippage than usual, averaging closer to 5.5pts for Sydney and 1.5pts for Melbourne.
<ul>
<li>So, step one, for preliminary clearance rates, deduct 5.5pts for Sydney and 1.5pts for Melbourne.</li>
</ul>
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/Housing_Pulse/Housing_Pulse_Bites/2019-02/Auctions-2.jpg" alt="">
Seasonality positive heading into Autumn and Spring, negative around Christmas
The time of year also matters. Buyers and sellers come and go from the market at slightly different times, producing a regular ebb and flow to clearance rates as the balance of power shifts. For March this effect is worth about 2pts in Sydney, slightly more in Melbourne. Seasonality diminishes gradually heading into Winter, re-emerges in Spring and then turns sharply negative as buyers disappear over the Summer holiday period.
<ul>
<li>So, step two, take another 2pts off for seasonality (tweaking this as the year progresses). </li>
</ul>
Pre-auction withdrawals an important clue to size of price declines
One of the appeals of tracking auction clearance rates has been the relatively tight relationship with price growth. Generally speaking, clearance rates above 65% were typically associated with solid gains, and over 75% with outright strength, while rates below the 50-55% range were associated with price declines. 
That broad relationship still holds. However, clearance rates do not seem to be capturing the full extent of price weakness during the current correction. The lows seen late last year, in the 45-50% range, are comparable to those in 2011-12 and previous cycles, yet the pace of price declines has been somewhat faster. 
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/Housing_Pulse/Housing_Pulse_Bites/2019-02/Auctions-1.jpg" alt=""> 
Another aspect of the auction results – pre-auction withdrawals – may shed more light on this and provide a way of refining the measure to give a better gauge of price conditions. Historically, around one in eight properties heading to auction in Sydney has been withdrawn prior, with a much lower share – one in thirty – in Melbourne. Both have risen materially over the last year, and much more sharply than during previous downturns. In Sydney, it has been more than one in five and in Melbourne it has been about one in every fifteen.
Pre-auction withdrawals are part of the ‘uncleared’ portion of the clearance rate. However, they are likely a good indicator of a more stressed market. Whereas a passed in result may be due to bidders not taking the price above reserve, a withdrawal points to sellers assessing that there will be insufficient bidders to even justify an auction.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/Housing_Pulse/Housing_Pulse_Bites/2019-02/Auctions-3.jpg" alt="">
How do we allow for us in our quick assessments? One relatively simple way is to calculate the ‘withdrawal rate’ – the proportion of auctions being withdrawn – and adjust the clearance rate by how this is varying to long run averages. For Sydney that adjustment is the clearance rate plus 14pts minus the withdrawal rate. For Melbourne, it is the clearance rate plus 3pts minus the withdrawal rate (the 14 and 3 in these calculations reflect the long run average withdrawal rate in each market).
<ul>
<li>So, step three, adjust both for the withdrawal rate gap to average</li>
</ul>
Conclusion
In summary, three relatively simple tweaks to the Sunday auction clearance rate give us a clearer idea of how they stack up:
<ol>
<li>A mark down for early result bias: currently –5.5pts for Sydney, –1.5pts for Melbourne; 
</li>
<li>An adjustment for seasonality: currently –2pts for both markets; 
</li>
<li>Incorporating pre-auction withdrawals: deducting the ‘withdrawal rate’ gap, the difference between the withdrawal rate and long run averages – for Sydney this is currently –8pts (22% withdrawal rate vs long run average of 14%); for Melbourne it  is –3.5pts (6.5% vs 3%). </li>
</ol>
The resulting ‘adjusted’ clearance rate can be compared against the usual benchmarks (&gt;65% associated with solid price gains, &lt;50-55% associated with price corrections) but gives a better idea of the extent of weakness. 
By way of example, Sydney’s preliminary clearance rate in the last week of February was 58.6% – knocking 5.5pts off for early result bias, 2pts of for seasonality, and a further 0.5pt for the withdrawal gap (14.5% vs avg 14%) gives an adjusted estimate of 50.6%, still a soft result but somewhat improved on the very weak reads late last year. The same adjustment for Melbourne takes a preliminary 53.1% clearance rate down to 50.1%. 
Interestingly, in both cases the main shift in early 2019 looks to be coming from a reduced rate of withdrawals rather than a lift in clearances. That may be an early sign that the pace of price declines is moderating. However, both shifts will need to be sustained and extended before auction market results are consistent with price stabilisation. 
Matthew Hassan<a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/37494/14186/" target="_blank"></a> is Senior Economist at Westpac.
</body></html>

Matthew Hassan's ‘how to’ guide to reading auction clearance results

Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

Matthew Hassan

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News