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EXPERT OBSERVER
The CoreLogic home value index, covering the eight major capital cities, posted a robust 0.7% gain in November following a 0.2% rise in October and five consecutive monthly declines. The November rise was across all major capital cities. Prices are still 2.1% below their pre-COVID peak and 3.5% below the peak in late 2017.
The detail shows a broad-based strengthening in the November month. Notably the reopening in Melbourne has finally seen prices turn in the one major market still recording declines a month ago – the 0.7%mth gain surprisingly firm given turnover was still low. Other markets consolidated on previous gains with Adelaide and Perth, the smaller capital cities and regional areas leading the way.
Turnover nationally largely consolidated on its Q3 'pop'. The detail continues to show stark differences, activity in Melbourne only just moving off the extreme lows seen during lockdown but activity across other capital city markets still holding well above pre-COVID levels (and well above new listings suggesting these markets are likely to be very tight in coming months).
Sydney recorded a 0.4% gain to be up 0.3% on a 3mth basis. Units remain a notable weak spot, with prices in this segment down 0.7% in the November month and 1.8% on a 3mth basis, declines accelerating slightly, particularly at the top end of the market. Houses at the lower end of the market have seen the most promising gains.
Melbourne's 0.7% gain was across all segments and building types although prices have generally been firmer for lower priced parts of the market. Despite an apparent large overhang of stock in the inner city, unit prices also posted a solid rise in the month – perhaps a caution that some of the gain may be running off expectations rather than conditions on the ground.
Other markets remain markedly firmer. Prices rose 0.6% in Brisbane, 1.3% in Adelaide, and 1.1% in Perth. The smaller capital city markets also recorded strong gains – Hobart up 1.4% and both Canberra and Darwin up 1.9%. All of these cities except Perth now have prices above their pre-COVID peaks.
The housing market is now moving clear of COVID disruptions with recoveries at different stages across different jurisdictions but gaining momentum everywhere. While there will still be some weak areas, particularly in the Sydney and Melbourne unit markets, the resurgence in activity, the associated lift in market sentiment and more promising outlook for a vaccine remedy to emerge next year suggests broader momentum will remain well supported in 2021. We have recently marked up our price forecasts with a 4% gain now expected in 2021 and a 10% rise in 2022, essentially bringing forward our forecast for a 15% surge that was previously expected to begin in mid-2021.
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior economist at Westpac
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Australian dwelling prices lift: Matthew Hassan

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Dwelling approvals came in below expectations with a 1.6% drop, weaker than both the consensus view of 0.0% and Westpac's view of a 2% gain. The fall comes after dwelling approvals surged in July by 12% from an 8yr low in June. Approvals are still tracking at subdued levels overall, with monthly approvals still down 14.6% vs December 2019.
The July result represented a catch-up, as approvals delayed by the initial nation wide lock-down were eventually processed by city councils. This raised the risk of an unwinding leading into August results.
Westpac's forecast noted uncertainty over varied COVID effects, with Victoria moving into a 'second wave' lockdown but other states continuing to re-open. Additionally, we saw support for approvals from the Federal government's HomeBuilder scheme – a stimulus programme that provides $25k grants to eligible owner-occupiers buying a new home (or renovating an existing home). The HIA reported a sharp jump in new home sales through June - August (+60% for the three months combined compared to the three months to May).
Private detached house approvals were supported by the scheme, posting a 4.8% increase which marked a 12.4% improvement on year.
The 11.1% fall in private unit approvals led the decline in August, with 'high rise' approvals down 11%, and 'low rise' unit approvals down 12%. This fall partially offset a 23% rise in July, with significant month-on-month volatility expected due to the bundling of unit approvals.
Across the states, NSW approvals continued a volatile trend, posting a decrease of 14.2% in August after approval delays contributed to a 32% increase in July. Tas (-26.2%) and SA (-4.8%) also declined. Gains were particularly strong in WA (+33.8%) and QLD (+8.1%), though broadly across the states approvals compared to a year ago.
As we expected, the impacts of the Vic lockdown beginning early August were not reflected in this release. The state posted a moderate increase of 1.8% due to the time lag, though impacts will surely be seen in coming months.
The value of alterations and additions to residential buildings reported a strong result of a 7% increase, the highest level recorded since April 2016. This segment is seeing support as the 'work from home' trend continues, and workers change their discretionary spending habits.
Large public projects in QLD and NT boosted the value of non residential building approvals by 40.7% in August. However, big double-digit swings in recent months continue to make discerning an underlying trend difficult.
In the near-term, there is the potential for another round of weakness - albeit concentrated in Victoria (which accounts for 35% of national approvals), which has been hit by the second lock-down. Other headwinds will challenge housing approvals into 2021, notable is the sharp slowing of population growth as net overseas migration plummets due to the closure of our international border.
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior economist at Westpac
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Dwelling approvals face weakness: Matthew Hassan

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Dwelling approvals showed a further weakening in June broadly in line with Westpac’s forecasts but weaker than the consensus view. Total dwelling approvals fell 4.9% to be down nearly 20% over the last two months, touching an eight year low.
The detail showed weakness in the month was more broadly based than May’s unit driven fall. Private sector unit approvals declined 5.3%mth to be down 23.4%qtr for Q2 as a whole (our estimates suggesting 'high rise' down 27.8%qtr and 'low rise' down a much milder 6.2%qtr).
Private sector detached house approvals posted a similar sized 5.7% decline in the June month but were more resilient for the quarter as a whole, down just 2.6%qtr. On a monthly basis, all segments are down materially on a year ago.
All states recorded declines, although they were more pronounced in NSW (–14.8%), WA (–11.7%) and Qld (–10.9%), and more muted in SA (–4.6%) and Vic (–0.2%). All states have seen double digit declines over May-June.
The value of renovation approvals posted a relatively strong 11.4% surge in June. This may be an early sign that relaxing restrictions in May-June are seeing some improvement, given renovations are likely to have shorter lags between application and approval. However, it should be noted that the gain is coming after some large falls with June approvals still below their March level and the value still down 9%qtr for Q2 as a whole. The segment is likely also benefitting from expenditure switching as COVID restrictions limit discretionary spending in other areas.
The value of non res. building approvals also rebounded, rising 17.8%mth, but was also coming from a weak starting point, approvals still 6.6% below their March level and down a whopping 18.1%qtr for Q2 as a whole.
For dwellings, the pull back continues to track broadly in line with Westpac's forecast. We expect approvals to come in at 145k for the full calendar year, roughly in line with the annualised pace in the June month and implying further weakness over the second half of the year. Note that approvals are likely to understate weakness in building as work on many existing projects will be delayed and some approved projects will be shelved or slower to commence.
Against this, the Federal government's HomeBuilder scheme, which provides $25k grants to eligible owner-occupiers buying a new home (or renovating an existing home), will give some support in months to come. With COVID-19 disruptions becoming more uneven geographically, state approval numbers are also likely to see a widening divergence in the second half of the year, Qld, WA and SA well placed to rebound and respond to stimulus measures, NSW seeing a slower reopening and Vic still contending with a large 'second wave' outbreak.
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior economist at Westpac
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Dwelling approvals hit eight year low: Matthew Hassan

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EXPERT OBSERVATON
Housing finance approvals came in better than expected for April but are showing clearer signs of a turn lower. The total value of new loans fell 4.8% in the month, a weak result but better than expected given disruptions from COVID-19 – we had been looking for a 10% pull back.
The detail showed similar sized declines across the value of owner occupier and investor approvals (–5% and –4.2% respectively) and in the number of owner occupier approvals (–4.4%mth). The latter is now down on a year ago but loans in value terms remain higher (reflecting the rebound in prices over the last year).
The ABS reported that housing loan approvals largely reflected applications submitted prior to COVID restrictions being introduced in March.
Results were very uneven by state, perhaps reflecting variations in lags between application and approval. Qld and WA saw much sharper pull backs (–22% and –24% respectively) compared to the milder decline in SA (–4.1%) and NSW (–2.4%), and a 4.5% gain in Vic that looks particularly out of step.
The lending figures also include non housing loans which are worth a mention. In particular, a steep fall in personal loan approvals (–24.8%) is more clearly directly related to COVID impacts. The detail here shows a slump in vehicle loans in line with the abrupt drop in sales and a very sharp decline in travel-related loans. Note that these loans have much shorter processing times than housing loans.
Overall, the housing finance data is yet to fully reflect the Coronavirus disruptions that hit the market through April-May. Many of these may have resulted in borrowers that had secured loans being unable to transact – as auctions and open homes were cancelled, and as properties were withdrawn. As such housing finance approvals may miss some of the extent of the disruption. However, the shock will clearly impact the flow of new applications. This may be taking longer to move through the pipeline, but a sharp drop off still looks likely in the months ahead.
Matthew Hassan is a senior economist with Westpac.
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A clearer but mild turn for housing finance: Matthew Hassan

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EXPERT OBSERVER 
Housing finance came in softer than expected in Feb, the total value of approvals recording a 1.7% decline in the month against expectations of a modest further rise.
The detail was soft across most segments and is despite both price gains and turnover still holding up reasonably well in the month which pre-dated any meaningful impacts from the Coronavirus outbreak.
The detail on owner occuper loans suggests slower volumes were the main driver of the soft result with the number of loans to this segment down 2% but the value down only 1.7%.
The number of approvals is still up 4.9% since the low point in May while the total value is up 22.6% (the difference implying a large rise in average loan sizes consistent with both rising prices and the stronger rebound in activity in higher priced markets such as Sydney and Melbourne).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/4/14/housing%20finance%201.png" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/4/14/housing%20finance%201.png" alt="">
Investor activity continues to be more subdued. The value of investor loans saw a slightly bigger decline in the months, down 1.9% with the value of approval up 6.3%yr compared to double digit growth for owner occupier loans.
Construction-related loans bucked the wider monthly decline, posting a 1.9% rise, likely supported at the margin but post-bushfire rebuilding activity.
Loans for the purchase of newly built dwellings fell sharply, down 8.9%mth, but were coming off very strong gains over the previous three months and are still up 29%yr (the ABS has identified some data quality concerns with this measure that are likely to see revisions in future relases).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/4/14/housing%20finance%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/4/14/housing%20finance%202.jpg" alt="">
On a combined basis, the total value of loans was up 1.7%mth and 13.1%yr.
By state, weakness was concentrated in NSW (total value of loans –7.1%mth), SA (–7.2%mth) and, to a lesser extent, Vic (–2.1%mth).
Other states recorded gains, Qld +4.1%mth and WA+5.5%mth.
Overall, while the starting point is a touch softer than expected the main story is still the likely severe decline as coronavirus effects impact in coming months.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/4/14/housing%20finance%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/4/14/housing%20finance%203.jpg" alt="">
Auction markets have already registered an abrupt slowdown as physical auctions have been banned outright (around half of auctions have been withdrawn prior, the remaining sales going via pre auction sales or online auction).
 
This segment only account for about 15% of all property sales, and the industry may do more to adapt to the situation in coming months.
Nevertheless, health concerns, social distancing restrictions and a deep economic shock will heavily impact the wider property market in coming months.
<div>
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist for Westpac
 
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Housing finance slips ahead of shutdown: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The January housing finance report showed another robust broad-based gain, the total value of housing loan approvals surging 4.6%mth, above the consensus forecast of a 3%mth rise.
The upturn continues to be across both volumes and values – the number of owner occupier loans up 3.1%mth and up 11% from their low last May. The value of owner occupier loans is up 28% over the same period implying a sizeable 17% rise in average loan values.
Gains in the owner occupier segment have been across both upgraders and first home buyers, the latter showing a slightly stronger 20% in the number of approvals since May.
Investor activity also picked up but continues to show a more restrained upturn, particularly compared to previous cycles. The value of loans to investors rose 3.6%mth and is now up 22% from its May low but still 37% below its 2017 peak.
On a combined basis, the total value of loans was up 4.6%mth and 23%yr.
NSW and Vic continue to lead the resurgence, the total value of loans in NSW up +7%mth, +30%yr; and in Vic up 5.3%mth, 27%yr. The value of loans dipped 2% in Qld but is still up a solid 17%yr. WA and SA have seen more moderate 10% gains over the year.
Construction-related finance approvals showed a more convincing gain in Jan, loans for the purchase of newly built dwellings (including 'off the plan' purchases) posting a very strong 13.4% and construction loans up 4.2%. Overall, the picture continues to point to a clear turning point in non high rise building activity. The lift in purchases of newly built dwellings will also help high rise developers clear unsold stock but is less likely to drive a lift in new projects.
The finance figures confirm that the housing market was carrying strong momentum heading into early 2020. Auction markets suggest this has continued into February and early March. However, the worsening coronavirus shock will likely be a major disruption to activity in coming months.
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist for Westpac
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Housing finance resurgence continues in 2020: Matthew Hassan

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Reserve Bank has released its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP). The report rounds out a full week for RBA communication that has also included the Governor’s decision statement following the Board’s February policy meeting, a speech on “the year ahead” and this morning’s semi-annual testimony to Parliament. The key themes throughout have been: a surprisingly confident outlook, notwithstanding a weaker recent performance and near term outlook due to bushfires and the emerging coronavirus shock; relatedly, a more positive view on the housing outlook, most notably around construction; a continued preparedness to cut rates further, particularly if labour markets were to weaken; but with a little more weight in the ‘balance of risks’ assessment being placed on the potential for further rate cuts to drive a renewed increase in household debt.
The SMP provides the fullest account of the RBA’s assessment and risks to the outlook. The central message here is that despite some downward adjustments to near term estimates: “…the medium-term outlook for the Australian economy is broadly unchanged from three months ago.” The bank’s point forecasts have GDP growth of 2% for 2019, 2.7% for 2020 and 3% 2020 (December quarter on December quarter growth rates). That compares to 2.3%, 2.8% and 3.1% in the previous SMP released in November. The medium term ‘central case’ view is of a gradual return to ‘around trend’ this year and rising slightly above trend in 2021. Similarly, the unemployment rate is expected to hold in the 5-5¼% range near term before gradually declining heading into 2021.
As we noted when these new forecasts were first revealed in the Governor’s statement following the Board meeting on Tuesday (see here), it is surprising that the RBA has retained its ‘around trend’ growth forecast for 2020 given the weaker momentum apparent in the September quarter national accounts; developing questions around the global economy; and the softer tone from a range of labour market lead indicators. Westpac’s forecast is considerably more downbeat, with growth now expected to come in at 1.9% this year, factoring in the impact of bushfires (more here) and a preliminary assessment of the impact from the coronavirus (more here). That in turn is expected to see the unemployment rate track higher, drawing a further easing response from the RBA with 25bp cuts forecast in April and August followed by quantitative easing measures.
Note that the RBA’s latest forecasts do include preliminary assessments of the impact of both bushfire and the coronavirus, although the high degree of uncertainty around the latter is stressed. It’s more detailed forecasts show a material downgrade to the first half of 2020 with annual growth of 1.9%yr over the year to June compared to a 2.6%yr forecast back in November. As the largely unchanged calendar year forecasts imply, this is largely offset by a rebound in the second half.
Key to the RBA’s more positive outlook are signs that last year’s policy easing is working to generate a lift in momentum – especially in the housing sector – and a view that this will continue as the ‘long and variable lags’ flow through to other sectors, consumer demand in particular. From the SMP: “The transmission of monetary policy is evident in established housing markets … It is too soon to see any response to this in household spending, but over time the drag on consumption growth from the earlier decline in housing prices and activity should wane.”
The global backdrop is also seen as more positive than a few months ago although here the messaging has been a little uneven. The emphasis in the Governor’s decision statement and speech was that “global growth is expected to be a little stronger this year and next than it was last year”. That jars slightly with the SMP commentary, which notes that “overall growth in Australia’s major trading partners is expected to be a little lower in 2020” – the difference possibly reflecting some late changes to allow for the emerging coronavirus shock.
On the bank’s more detailed forecasts, the 2020 outlook for business investment has been upgraded to 9.3% from 6.2% in November. The text suggests that this is around mining investment, “Growth (in mining investment) is expected to pick up noticeably over 2020 and 2021 as work commences on a number of sustaining and expansionary projects.” The RBA acknowledges that non-mining business investment was (1) weaker than expected in the September quarter, led by equipment spending; and (2) “the capex survey indicates equipment investment is likely to be weaker than previously expected over the remainder of 2019/20”. This had led to “the forecast for non-mining investment has been lowered over the next few quarters” Beyond that, “from late 2020, non-mining business investment growth is expected to increase modestly, in line with the broader pick-up in private demand”.
On household income, it is striking that real household disposable income growth for Dec 2020 has been downgraded to 1.4% from 2.3% previously. The figure for Dec 2019 is as before at 1.6%. The downgrade to consumer spending for Dec 2020 is more modest, 2.4% to 2.0% - suggesting in our minds downside risks given this weak income outlook. In the Overview of the Statement, consumption growth is expected to recover gradually, with “the low level of interest rates, a somewhat faster rate of income growth than in recent years and the recovery in household wealth are all expected to contribute to this turnaround”. The mix implies a significant decline in the household savings rate over the year.
On housing, “the trough in dwelling construction is expected to occur in the second half of 2020, before a recovery in residential construction gets underway through 2021”. The forecast profile for home building activity has been upgraded a little: with the Dec 2019 figure, to -9.8% from -11.3%; the Dec 2020 figure, to -1.9% from -2.6%; while for Dec 2021 the figure is unchanged at 9.2%.
Around the assessment of policy, the Bank clearly remains open to further policy easing. The board again considering the case for additional easing in February with the main concern being: “… the only gradual nature of the progress [towards the inflation target and full employment]” and “ongoing uncertainties” (i.e. around household balance sheet adjustments and from the near terms shocks from bushfires and the coronavirus). More specifically, the Bank is prepared to ease further “if the unemployment rate were to be moving materially higher and there was no further progress being made towards the inflation target.”
However, there has been a notable shift in the way the Board is assessing the case for further easing, which came more to the fore in the Governor’s speech, Parliamentary testimony and in the SMP than in Tuesday’s decision statement. Whereas back in late November the RBA Governor indicated that he was not particularly worried about the resurgence in house prices, the February SMP now explicitly notes that in considering the case for further policy easing “… a balance needs to be struck between the benefits of lower interest rates and the risks associated with having interest rates at very low levels.”, namely that lower rates could “encourage more borrowing by households eager to buy residential property at a time when housing debt is already quite high and there is already a strong upswing in housing prices in place. … [which] could increase the risk of problems down the track.”
Conclusion
Westpac continues to expect that a combination of a more moderate growth outlook and a deterioration in the labour market will require a further policy response. However, the RBA’s surprisingly confident forecasts and uncertainty around what the bank views as temporary shocks impacting near term casts doubt over how they will respond. The case for further policy accommodation will become clear to the RBA as its overly-optimistic expectations are not met. Currently we have April pencilled in for the next cut but recognise that the Governor may need more time to be convinced that further action will be required.
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist for Westpac
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RBA's surprisingly confident view despite weaker recent performance: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Dwelling approvals posted a much smaller than expected 0.2% dip in Dec, following a sharp 10.9% jump in November. The Consensus had been looking for a 5% pull back. Annual growth lifted to 2.7%yr, the first positive since June 2018, albeit with monthly comparisons flattered by base effects. Measured on a quarterly basis, Q4 saw a 6.1%qtr rise but approvals still down 8.3%yr.
As noted in our preview, the previous month's gain was heavily concentrated in NSW, which posted a 50%+ rise, approvals ex NSW down 0.9%. We attributed much of this to a delayed effect associated with regulatory changes rolled out in October with December expected to see the spike reverse.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/2/4/Dwelling%20Approvals%20CL%20JAN.JPG" alt="">
The December detail confirmed this with a sharp reversal in NSW (–30%mth) but the impact was negated by an even sharper high-rise-driven spike in Vic (+34%mth). Our initial take is that this is again largely a temporary effect relating to the lumpy high rise project pipeline. That said, Vic is showing a decent lift in non high rise approvals as well that may be an early sign that the wider market upturn is starting to flow through to non high rise segments.
Outside of NSW and Vic, approvals across the rest of Australia fell 3.6%mth on a combined basis and are tracking a much weaker profile. For the December month, approvals fell 5.7% in Qld, slumped 20% in SA but rose 5.4% in WA.
The segment breakdown nationally showed an estimated 11% pull back in high rise approvals which followed a 40% jump in Nov. 'Low-mid' rise approvals surged strongly, up an estimated 19% in the month and 22%yr. Private house approvals dipped 0.1%mth to be down 7.1%yr. On a combined basis, non high rise approvals were up 4.1%mth but still down 0.8%yr.
Renovation approvals continued to fall sharply into year end, the total value of approvals down further 1.8% in December to be down 5.5% for Q4 as a whole – the fastest pace of decline since 2016.
Non residential building approvals pared back some of their recent weakness, jumping 35% in the month but still down 17.5% for Q4 as a whole – the segment can be extremely volatile month to month but has moved into a fairly clear downtrend since August.
Overall the December update shows a complex mix with one off factors likely again exaggerating strength but some hints of firming elsewhere. As always, housing-related data should be treated with extra caution through the December-January period as seasonality can amplify volatility. On balance we continue to expect approvals to show a muted and slow response to rate cuts with a gradual lift in non high rise approvals coming through more strongly by mid-2020 (overlaid with a slightly boost from bushfire-related rebuilding) but high rise holding broadly flat. While the monthly profile for total approvals may be shaping into a sharper turning point the detail suggests the underlying cycle is turning more slowly. Either way, its likely to be a few more months before we get a clear read.
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior economist at Westpac
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Have dwelling approvals reached a turning point? Matthew Hassan

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The recovery in Australian dwelling prices that began in mid-2019 has carried into early 2020, albeit with some moderation in monthly gains from the very strong finish to 2019.
The CoreLogic home value index, covering the eight major capital cities, rose 0.9% in Jan, a touch down on the 1.2% gain in December month and the very strong 2.0% gain in Nov. Annual price growth lifted to 5.2%yr.
Prices nationally have now recovered over two thirds of their 2017-19 correction but are still 3% below their 2017 peak. At the current pace of monthly gains, they should regain that level by mid 2020.
Several factors contributed to the turnaround in 2019 including: reduced uncertainty around housing-related tax policy following the Federal election; 75bps in official rate cuts from the RBA; and some easing in regulatory guidelines around loan serviceability assessments.
All capital cities and regional areas within states recorded gains in Jan with more evidence of price gains starting to show through outside the Sydney and Melbourne markets that have led the cycle.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/2/4/Dwelling%20Prices%20CL%20JAN.JPG" alt="">
Sydney recorded a 1.1% rise taking annual growth to 7.9%yr. Prices are up 11.2% from their May 2019 low but still 5.4% below their peak in mid-2017. Houses and top and middle tier properties continue to outpace units and lower tier properties although all tiers and segments have seen a moderation in prices gains month to month.
Melbourne recorded a 1.2% rise with prices up 8.2%yr and just 1.2% below their 2017 peak.
Brisbane dwelling prices posted a solid 0.5% rise lifting annual growth to 1.1%yr, a modest pace but with the quarterly pulse in price growth running the strongest in five years.
Across the other capital city markets: Perth posted a 0.1% gain in Dec, essentially holding flat in recent months; Adelaide prices rose 0.2%, annual growth ticking up into slightly positive (+0.4%yr); Hobart recorded a robust 0.9%mth gain to be up 3.1%yr; Canberra recorded a 0.3%mth gain to be up 3.1%yr; and even Darwin posted a slight 0.1%mth gain despite prices still being down materially on a year ago (–8.1%yr).
Note that seasonal fluctuations do affect prices through the Christmas-New Year period, with gains in December and January typically a touch softer than in Nov.
That said, the moderation from the very strong November rise is consistent with our view that gains will moderate as prices in the key Sydney and Melbourne markets start to near previous peaks and affordability constraints re-emerge.
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist at Westpac
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Australian dwelling price lift carries into 2020: Matthew Hassan

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EXPERT OBSERVATION 
Dwelling approvals were much weaker than expected in Oct, recording an 8.1% pull back from September's 7.2% gain.
The Consensus had been looking for a milder 1% fall. The fall takes total monthly approvals back near their July cycle low, down 23.6%yr.
The detail was particularly disappointing – rather than a high-rise driven result, weakness in the month was more evenly spread across all dwelling types, detached houses down 11%, mid-low rise unit approvals down an estimated 4.7% and high rise approvals down an estimated 14%.
The renewed weakness in non high rise segments is despite tentative signs of stabilisation in recent months and firmer reads on construction-related finance approvals. These segments are also expected to be more responsive to recent interest rate cuts and the pick up in house prices.
The state detail showed weakness was concentrated in NSW and Qld with other states posting solid gains.
NSW was particularly weak with total dwelling approvals down 16%mth to a 7yr low. Qld approvals fell 10% in the month but look to be chopping around a steadier underlying trend. Vic posted a 5.7% rise but also looks to be stable in trend terms. WA approvals rose 11.5%, off a very weak Sep, and SA rose 14.7% with an uptrend in place.
The total value of renovation approvals declined 2.6%, mostly reversing a 3% gain in Sep month, and still tracking a slight trend decline.
The total value of non res building approvals rose 4.2% but was coming off a very choppy Aug-Sep. Approvals are up strongly on a 3mth basis but tracking about flat in monthly trend terms.
Overall the Oct dwelling approvals report highlights the weak outlook for new dwelling construction. High rise segments look susceptible to further declines and non high rise is still softening despite rate cuts and the improved tone to markets since mid year.
Falling dwelling investment is set to be a continued drag through 2020 – we expect new dwelling investment to be down 11.5% for the full calendar year 2019 and is forecast to fall a further 8% in 2020.
The weakness stands in stark contrast to the rebound coming through in prices (see <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/41356">here</a> for more detail on the latest price data) but reflects the long lags on high rise projects and the specific issues facing this particular segment that are likely to preclude a rebound in high rise activity. Price gains are also expected to moderate as we head into 2020 as supply starts to lift and as affordability strains re-emerge. 
Read full report: <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/December/er20191202BullDwellApprovOct.pdf" target="_blank">'Australian dwelling approvals October' (PDF 319kb)</a>
Matthew Hassan is a Senior Economist at Westpac.
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Australian dwelling approvals weaken: Matthew Hassan

National diversified developer Fortis has officially launched Crest &amp; Walker, its latest Brisbane apartment development, with construction now underway on the 20-storey Newstead project.

Award-winning builder BINAH has commenced construction on the Bureau^Proberts-designed building, which will deliver a limited collection of 65 two and three-bedroom apartments on Kyabra Street.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373556]

The project marks Fortis' fourth active residential development in Brisbane, following River House, which is nearing completion, alongside projects in New Farm and Hamilton as the national developer continues to expand its South East Queensland pipeline.

Fortis General Manager – Development Queensland Dan Boman said Crest &amp; Walker reflects the developer's long-term commitment to delivering design-led residential projects in Brisbane's established inner-city suburbs.

"We're proud to be strengthening our presence in Brisbane with Crest &amp; Walker, particularly in such a sought-after lifestyle destination as Newstead," Boman said.

"Every Fortis project is shaped by its context, and we approach each one with the respect and care it deserves.

"Our focus is always on creating places that feel connected to their neighbourhood and elevate the everyday experience for residents. Newstead continues to evolve as one of Brisbane's most sought-after urban communities, and Crest &amp; Walker reflects our ambition to contribute meaningfully to that story."

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Positioned between Gasworks Plaza and James Street, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crest-walker-newstead-12-kyabra-street-newstead-qld-4006">Crest &amp; Walker</a> has been designed as a boutique residential address offering privacy and generous living spaces within one of Brisbane's most established lifestyle precincts.

The building features a contemporary brick podium softened by integrated landscaping, while the upper levels are characterised by restrained architecture and enduring materiality. Interiors have been designed to maximise natural light, acoustic performance and long-term liveability.

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Residences comprise spacious two and three-bedroom floorplans, with two-bedroom apartments priced from $1.55 million and three-bedroom, half-floor residences from $3.95 million.

Residents will have access to a wellness-focused rooftop featuring a swimming pool, sauna, steam room, landscaped dining spaces and outdoor lounge areas overlooking Newstead and the Brisbane CBD.

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Sales are being managed by Slaite Projects, with Fortis expecting strong demand from owner-occupiers seeking a high-quality, design-focused apartment in one of Brisbane's most tightly held inner-city suburbs.

Completion of Crest &amp; Walker is slated for late 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145922]

Joel Robinson

Fortis expands Brisbane pipeline with launch of Crest & Walker in Newstead

The enormity of delivering a true skyscraper in Australia's new development market is often overlooked.

It has taken the best part of a decade since plans for Chevron One were first unveiled, but the 52-storey tower is now complete, with residents collecting their keys and moving into what has become one of the Gold Coast's most recognisable new landmarks.

Rising 127 metres above Chevron Island, Chevron One stands almost twice as high as any other building on the island. Its scale places it alongside the trio of towers at Jewel, arguably the last truly significant addition to the central Gold Coast skyline when they were completed around six years ago.

While there are several developments underway around a similar height to Chevron One, they are more concentrated within clusters of the highest towers in the city. The fact Chevron One sits within a developing precinct, looking back at the other high-rise developments in Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach, makes it a different proposition altogether. It will certainly become a reference point on the Gold Coast skyline.

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Developer Bensons Property Group is behind the 52-storey tower, which has just shy of 250 apartments, along with an exhaustive list of resident amenity spread across what is the largest development site ever assembled on Chevron Island.

The tower has been the talk of the town for years, says Ray White Projects Gold Coast agent Caitlin Rosenboom, who is selling the remaining apartments.

"People have been watching Chevron One go up for years," Rosenboom says, adding that many prospective buyers have been surprised by the scale of the views once they step inside.

"It's only when they walk through a completed apartment that they truly understand the position of the building," Rosenboom says.

"The views are jaw-dropping. Whether you're looking east over the ocean, across Surfers Paradise, along the river systems or out to the hinterland, every level offers something different but equally impressive."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=360215]

One of Chevron One's defining advantages is its location on the eastern side of Chevron Island on Stanhill Drive, a position which protects the views forever.

"There's only one row of houses between Chevron One and the water, and the height restrictions along the river means views from Chevron One can never be built out,"&nbsp;Rosenboom says.

While new apartment developments continue to emerge across the Gold Coast, Rosenboom says opportunities to secure a completed apartment with this level of outlook are becoming increasingly rare.

"The size of the site is something that would be incredibly difficult to replicate today," she says.

"That's allowed Chevron One to deliver the sort of amenity, open space and resident facilities that very few projects can offer. There are not many completed apartment buildings on the Gold Coast right now that can compete with the combination of scale, quality and amenity."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68839]

There's around 2,000 sqm of amenity solely for the use of residents of Chevron One. Club One features a uniquely shaped swimming pool that mirrors the footprint of the building itself, set within a extensively landscaped gardens. There's also an indoor pool and spa, a fully equipped gym with a Pilates room, a yoga garden, a bookable private dining area and lounge that can host up to 30 people, and a 24-hour concierge service.

As for the buyers, Rosenboom is fielding enquiry from everywhere: Sydneysiders and Melburnians looking at the new and off-the-plan market following the changes in the Federal Budget, as well as those looking to relocate, through to South East Queenslanders seeking either a permanent home or a weekender bolthole.

"The Gold Coast lifestyle continues to resonate with people relocating from the southern states, and when they see the views and the quality of what's been delivered at Chevron One, it becomes very easy for them to understand the appeal," Rosenboom says.

A diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments remain available, with each offering "something a little different", be it the orientation and views, configuration, or level, to suit a wide variety of buyers.

The remaining apartments are ready to inspect in person, by appointment.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6515]

A decade in the making: Residents to move into Chevron One as construction wraps up

A general rule of thumb in new apartment developments is that the penthouses get the rooftop.

It's a formula that's become commonplace across Australia's apartment market. Residents might have access to a pool, gym or barbecue facilities on a dedicated lower level, but the most desirable outdoor spaces are typically reserved for the highest-priced homes at the top of the building.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Property Group</a> has taken the opposite approach.

Rather than dedicating the rooftop to a handful of buyers, the Gold Coast developer has made it the centrepiece of its Flourish collection, creating expansive shared spaces from the best vantage point in the building.

The philosophy has reached its most ambitious expression at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> in Palm Beach, where two rooftop precincts connected by a skybridge will deliver one of the most extensive lifestyle offerings seen in a residential apartment project on the Gold Coast.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374053]

"We're seeing a clear move toward developments that offer more than just an apartment," Sherpa Group founder Christie Leet said.

"People want spaces that support how they actually live, whether that's working from home, staying active, or spending time with family and friends.

"That's where amenity becomes critical. It's not just about what's included, but how those spaces are designed to be used every day."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374052]

The breadth of amenity has already attracted buyers across multiple demographics. Younger first home buyers have been drawn to Soleira's one-bedroom apartments, a product rarely delivered in Palm Beach, while families have responded to practical inclusions such as the shallow children's pool adjoining the main lap pool and the extensive communal recreation areas.

Instead of a single rooftop, Soleira delivers two distinct lifestyle zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=372547]

The southern rooftop has been dedicated to wellness, featuring a gym, yoga and Pilates studio, work-from-home facilities, a wellness centre, spa, and hot and cold plunge pools.

The northern rooftop focuses on recreation and entertaining, incorporating a heated resort-style pool, private dining rooms, pizza ovens, barbecues, a golf simulator, children's recreation areas, and what is expected to be the Gold Coast's first rooftop basketball court, which will also double as a squash court.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374054]

Beyond the rooftops, Soleira will introduce 1,500 sqm of curated retail beneath the towers, creating one of Palm Beach's first genuinely mixed-use lifestyle precincts where cafés, restaurants and convenience retail become part of residents' everyday lives.

Sherpa has also retained management rights across the development, allowing it to oversee the long-term operation of the building through a 24-hour concierge model. The developer is also exploring additional revenue streams within the precinct aimed at helping offset ongoing body corporate costs for residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370962]

While Soleira is the largest project Sherpa has delivered, the rooftop-first philosophy has been evolving for several years.

It began with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>, the first project released under the Flourish brand. Rather than competing at the ultra-luxury end of the market with oversized half-floor and full-floor residences, Sherpa focused on creating lifestyle-driven apartments supported by resort-style shared spaces.

Amargo introduced more than 800 sqm of rooftop amenity, combining wellness facilities, heated pools, entertaining areas, cabanas, pizza ovens and private dining spaces into what was designed as an extension of residents' homes rather than a facility used only occasionally.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=366550]

That approach continued with Flourish Oasis, where the same amenity-led philosophy was refined into a more boutique development. Strong demand from Sherpa's growing VIP database saw much of the project sold before it reached the broader market, reinforcing buyer appetite for apartment communities centred around shared lifestyle experiences.

Flourish Amargo is slated for completion mid-way-through next year, with Oasis to be delivered by late 2027. Flourish Soleira is expected to complete in 2030.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa takes amenity to the sky as Flourish Soleira captures booming Palm Beach demand

As apartment living continues to evolve across Sydney's growth corridors, the quality and distribution of shared spaces is increasingly shaping how residents experience home. Rather than functioning as add-ons, amenities are being embedded into the daily rhythm of a building, supporting everything from quiet retreat to social interaction, often within a single vertical community.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aeris-melrose-park-nursery-street-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Aeris</a> in Melrose Park, this approach is resolved through a layered amenity offering that unfolds from ground level through to its upper podium. Developed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a> in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties, the project introduces 468 apartments across two towers and a mid-rise building, positioned at the highest point of the broader masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=359199]

The amenity experience begins at street level, where two courtyards sit within a landscaped setting that connects residents to the wider network of parks and green spaces. These green spaces are not isolated pockets but part of a wider pedestrian network that links Aeris to the surrounding <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a> precinct, including Central Park, future schools, and the Town Centre opening in July 2026. The result is a transition that moves from public to private without abrupt boundaries, allowing residents to pass through shaded, tree-lined environments before reaching the building itself.

Moving upward, the focus shifts to the level five podium, where the primary communal facilities are concentrated. This space brings together a 16-metre swimming pool, outdoor seating areas, and a communal BBQ zone arranged to take advantage of elevated outlooks. Seating is positioned beneath pergolas, creating pockets of shade that extend the usability of the space throughout the day. The pool edge aligns with views toward the wider district, reinforcing the sense of elevation that defines the project’s positioning.

In the adjacent building, this is complemented by quieter, more contemplative spaces, including an outdoor cinema set within the same level. Positioned to operate primarily in the evening, it introduces a different tempo to the shared environment, shifting from daytime activity to after-hours use without requiring separate zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360299]

The podium also accommodates an intimate private resident gym. Located on the lower levels, it gives residents convenient access to fitness facilities without leaving the building.

Above, the elevated podium sky deck extends the amenity offering, providing additional open-air spaces with elevated outlooks across the surrounding landscape. While more restrained in program, this upper level reinforces the project’s vertical progression, from ground-level greenery to elevated outlook, allowing residents to move between distinct spatial conditions within a single address.

This distribution of amenities reflects a deliberate response to how residents use space across the day. Sekisui House Australia Sales and Marketing Director Peter Kalaf points to the role these shared areas play in shaping buyer demand. Aeris has been conceived as more than a collection of apartments, with the podium pool, gym and outdoor cinema forming part of a broader lifestyle offering that extends the home beyond each individual residence.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360300]

What distinguishes Aeris is not the inclusion of these elements individually, but how they are arranged in relation to one another. Active, social, and passive spaces are layered vertically rather than separated, allowing residents to choose between them without leaving the building or moving far from their apartment. This proximity supports both routine use, such as a morning swim or evening workout, and more occasional gatherings, whether around the BBQ area or within the cinema setting.

The amenity design also sits within a broader framework of connectivity across Melrose Park. The Melrose Park Town Centre, anchored by Coles and Dan Murphys, features a mix of retail, dining, health and lifestyle offerings, bringing everyday convenience closer to residents. By the end of the year, more than five hectares of parks and open space, equivalent to around seven football fields of green space on residents' doorstep, will further enhance the precinct, allowing the internal facilities at Aeris to operate as an extension of the wider neighbourhood rather than a substitute for it.

Construction at Aeris continues to gather momentum, with ground floor slabs expected to be completed in late 2026 before the first sections of the buildings begin to rise above ground.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=426]

Elevated amenity anchors daily life at Aeris, Melrose Park

Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

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Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tsioMLcnjas?si=zq-ys3JuWpfa5hFv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

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Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Matthew Hassan

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