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A more bearish outlook on the economy has seen NAB revise its interest rate expectations to forecast three rate cuts in 2013, taking the cash rate to a new record low of 2.25% by year-end.
The bank had previously forecast just one rate cut in 2013.
It expects the first rate cut in the first quarter of the year (either February or March) and has tentatively penciled in further rate cuts in May and August.
“With the economy continuing to weaken and unemployment set to rise noticeably through 2013 the RBA will need to cut significantly further than previously expected in 2013,” says NAB chief economist Alan Oster.
The bank has downgraded its 2013 GDP forecasts from 2.5% to 2% with unemployment expected to rise to around 5.75% by late 2013.
“That would see, on a no policy change basis, a budget deficit in the $10 billion to $15 billion range for 2012/13," says Oster.
Oster says the weaker activity outlook will also help contain inflation to below 3% (within the RBA target band) “even including the carbon tax impact”.
“Nor do we see the Australian dollar offering much relief to a struggling economy,” he says.
NAB expects the dollar to track lower over the course of the year to reach parity with the US dollar in late 2013. 
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More bearish NAB now expects three interest rate cuts in 2013

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While credit rating agency Fitch is forecasting Australian property prices to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/residential/stable-outlook-for-australian-housing-market-but-no-price-gains-in-2013-fitch/2013010958671?utm_source=po&amp;utm_medium=aida&amp;utm_campaign=news">go nowhere in 2013 </a>as the market continues to stabilise, Australian commentators and analysts are more expectant of some gain over the next 12 months.
The strongest outlooks are for Perth and Darwin, both beneficiaries of the mining investment boom, while the prospects for Sydney and Brisbane are also sound.
As for the other capital cities, flat markets are in prospect with analysts particularly bearish about Melbourne and Hobart.
Fairfax-owned Australian Property Monitors (APM) is forecasting prices to rise a modest 3% to 5% over the course of the year, but with quite different outlooks for the major capital cities.
APM is most bullish about Perth, tipping property prices to rise by between 5% and 7% over the year, with a similar outlook for the smaller Darwin market.
There are modest property price gains tipped for Sydney, following a decade of near stagnation, with APM expecting rises of between 3% and 5% ,with similar expectations for Brisbane.
At best, Melbourne and Canberra will experience gains of 3%, says APM, while no change is expected in Adelaide and Hobart.
Both BIS Shrapnel and Hotspotting.com.au’s Terry Ryder are bullish about Perth and Darwin, with Ryder expecting double-digit growth in both these cities. Ryder also expects Sydney and Brisbane to perform strongly.
For both BIS Shrapnel and Ryder, Melbourne, Canberra and Hobart are the clear weak spots.
Property price forecasts for 2013
<table style="width: 470px;" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td width="154" valign="top">
 
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
APM
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
BIS Shrapnel
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
Terry Ryder
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="154" valign="top">
Sydney
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
3% - 5%
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
2.7%
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
5% - 10%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="154" valign="top">
Melbourne
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
0%  - 3%
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
0.9%
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
-5%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="154" valign="top">
Perth
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
5% - 7%
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
6.4%
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
10%+
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="154" valign="top">
Brisbane
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
3%  - 5%
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
3.9%
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
5% - 10%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="154" valign="top">
Adelaide
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
0%
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
1.3%
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
0% - 5%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="154" valign="top">
Darwin
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
5% - 7%
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
5.3%
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
10%+
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="154" valign="top">
Hobart
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
0%
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
-1.1%
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
-5%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="154" valign="top">
Canberra
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
0 – 3%
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
-0.8%
</td>
<td width="154" valign="top">
0%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
APM bases its relatively positive outlook following interest rates being cut to near record lows last year, with chief economist Andrew Wilson expecting prices to build on the modest gains achieved in 2012.
He tips Perth to be the top performer based on record levels of immigration, housing shortages and soaring rents, as well as its exposure to the relative strength of mining sector.
While Ryder is tipping property price growth in excess of 10% for Perth and Darwin, he believes the best opportunities in 2013 will be in regional markets – to find out where, watch the Property Observer webinar: <a target="_blank" href="/news">Regions versus capital cities - where to invest in 2013?</a>


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BIS Shrapnel as part of of forecasts prepared for QBE LMI's 2012 - 2015 Housing Outlook report says affordability in Perth and Brisbane improved substantially in 2011-12 with a "rapidly rising dwelling deficiency is developing".
"In Darwin, meanwhile, median house price growth of 10.7% was registered in 2011-12 – driven by substantial levels of investment in mining and resource capacity leading to significant income and migration growth.
"Falls in vacancy rates are also expected to continue across all three cities, placing upward pressure on both rents and dwelling prices, attracting demand from investors in particular," says BIS Shrapnel.
News Limited national economics editor Jessica Irvine warns those looking to dip into the property market in 2013 must be aware of spruikers claiming “the next boom in property prices is about to get underway”.
Irvine says while spruikers may talk up mortgage rates being low and that affordability has improved, a “more sober look at the Australian property market reveals prices have hit a wall, although remain historically expensive”.
This is the partly the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/residential/australian-housing-still-least-affordable-in-the-world-despite-recent-improvements-fitch/2013010958698?utm_source=po&amp;utm_medium=aida&amp;utm_campaign=news">argument made by Fitch</a>, in its forecast of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/residential/stable-outlook-for-australian-housing-market-but-no-price-gains-in-2013-fitch/2013010958671?utm_source=po&amp;utm_medium=aida&amp;utm_campaign=news">no movement</a> in Australian house prices in 2013.
Irvine points at that in the boom years from 2003-04 and 2009-10, property prices grew by 50% to 60% in Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide and by a “whopping” 10% in Perth.
But now the property boom is “well and truly at an end”.
“Over the past five years, home prices have clocked average annual growth of just 1.9%. You would have been better with your money in the bank,” she says.
Irvine alludes to the fact that the new generation of home buyers need their parents help to acquire their first property while those already on the property ladder are using lower interest rates to pay down debt.
“And so it's hard to see property prices rising much this year, unless something radically new happened to boost people's capacity to borrow,” she says. 
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Australian analysts tip modest property price gains in 2013 led by Perth, depending on who you ask 

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Demand is growing for more affordable small properties and tiny CBD studio apartments, but obtaining financing can be harder, according to Aussie Home Loans founder John Symond.
“For all the affordability that a small apartment provides, however, there is a catch,” says Symond in his latest Aussie blog.
“There are often strict lending rules around studios that prevent those without sizeable deposits from buying in.
“Buyers will typically require a deposit upwards of 20% to buy an apartment with less than 50 square metres in floor area, and lenders mortgage insurance (LMI) is often more expensive as well,” he says.
In August last year Property Observer provided readers with a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/residential/top-10-cheapest-studios-apartments-in-the-melbourne-cbd-starting-frrom-%24145000/2012081255753">top 10 list of studio apartments</a> in the Melbourne CBD starting from a 17-square-metre apartment on Flinders Street, which sold to an investor for $145,000 last year.
Property Observer noted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/new-south-wales/sydney-cbd-s-10-cheapest-studio-apartments-starting-from-%24255000/2012073155743" target="_blank">Sydney studio apartments were proving tempting to investors and home buyers  </a>given both buying classes were being affected by rising rents across the city. We listed 10 of the cheapest, starting with a studio on Dixon Street in Chinatown at $255,000, with eight of them now sold.
Also last year, we wrote about <a target="_blank" href="/news">pocket-sized inner Sydney listings</a>, including what is believed to be Sydney’s smallest home, a terraced house measuring just 27 square metres built in a former alleyway on Evans Street in Rozelle.
Symond mentions the tiny Bondi Beach flat dubbed the “bolt-house” measuring just 16 square metres, which <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/new-south-wales/old-fashioned-studio-fails-to-ride-the-bondi-beach-property-wave/2012091156502" target="_blank">Property Observer wrote about October</a>. The property failed to attract a single bid at auction, coming with $270,000 hopes, eventually selling privately for $245,000.
Symond says small properties and tiny studio apartments have become increasingly popular in the last few years “as home buyers seek affordability in cities with escalating property prices”.
“Typically a studio apartment – defined as ‘any unit that does not have a wall separating the bedroom from the living areas / kitchen’ – will require a floor area no less than 40 square metres and have a maximum loan to value ratio of 60%."
Of the 10 cheapest Melbourne CBD apartments, which we wrote about in August last year, two remain up for sale:
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-studio-vic-melbourne-105215032">210/600 Little Bourke Street</a>
$148,000
Unit 210 at 600 Little Bourke Street is a serviced apartment currently run by Hotel Ibis, which has the contract until 2018. The 25-square-metre apartment has a modest guaranteed income of $650 a month, and agent Lilian Yoon from OzAsia Real Estate is unsure of the outgoings for the property, although she says they would be minimal. The unit, which has no cooking facilities, has been on the market for years.
<a target="_blank" href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-studio-vic-melbourne-110840411">417B/268 Flinders Street</a>
$165,000
This studio apartment is in the Home @ Flinders building opposite Flinders Street Station and rents for $310 a week. It’s 15 square metres and has outgoings of more than $4000 a year. It includes a kitchenette and a bathroom, and there’s room to walk.
We’ve also tracked down a few more tiny apartments currently up for sale:
<a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-studio-vic-melbourne-112356715">1306/268 Flinders Street</a>
<a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-studio-vic-melbourne-112356715"></a>$225,000
This studio apartment - in the same building as the previous apartment (417B)- is being sold by Robert Eggers of Dingle Partners - Melbourne. 
<a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-vic-melbourne-111726639" target="_blank">57/546 Flinders Street</a>
$150,000 – $170,000
This apartment is situated across the river from Crown casino, and close to Southern Cross train station. It is currently leased at $240 per week. It is being sold by Dien Tran of Ray White CBD.
Of the 10 Sydney studio apartments we wrote about in August last year, just two remain available for purchase. These are:
$265,000
<a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-serviced+apartment-nsw-sydney-106659143" target="_blank">318/8 Dixon Street</a>
It’s a 28 square metre studio on level three of the building. The property currently earns $14,502 per year in rent from Quest Apartments, which is set to increase to $15,082 next year. That works out to about $280 a week. Agent David Tsang from Friendly Properties says outgoings would total around $250 a quarter.
$275,000
<a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-studio-nsw-sydney-107037659" target="_blank">94/8 Dixon Street</a> <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-studio-nsw-sydney-107037659"></a>
In the same building again here, but back down to 25 square metres. It’s a similar deal to the cheapest on the list but it earns slightly less rent at $400 a week. Total quarterly outgoings are $1,296. It’s being sold by Alan Cheung from LJ Hooker Chinatown who says the vendor for apartment 124 is just slightly more motivated.
For information on <a target="_blank" href="http://propertyobserver.com.au/ebooks/free-ebook-investing-outside-the-square">out-of-the-box property investments, download our free eBook.</a>
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Demand rising for tiny studio apartments, but mortgage hurdles higher: Aussie John Symond

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Australand’s biggest shareholder, Singapore-based CapitaLand, is considering divesting from the residential property developer, as takeover rumours continue to circulate.
Should CapitaLand go ahead and sell out of Australand it could clear a hurdle allowing larger property development rival Mirvac to make a formal bid for Australand, following a failed $3 billion offer from another listed developer, GPT.
A statement posted by Australand to shareholders on the ASX says that CapitaLand, which owns 59% of Australand, is to “conduct strategic review of its investment in Australand”
Australand says it has appointed Macquarie Capital, Fort Street Advisers and law firm King &amp; Wood Mallesons as advisers to its board with directors to keep securityholders informed of any “material developments as they occur”
The Australian Financial Review said these appointments were to bolster Australand’s defences as it “braces for a potential barrage of buyout proposals”.
In December last year, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/australian-capital-territory/australand-rejects-gpt-offer/2012121358470">Australand rejected</a> an unsolicited, non-binding proposal from GPT to acquire much of its core business.
GPT had offered $3 billion for Australand’s entire commercial and industrial business, but not its residential development business.
Following the rejection of the GPT proposal, there was also speculation that Mirvac was considering a proposal to acquire the entire Australand business that would have created a a <a target="_blank" href="/news">$7 billion listed property trust.</a>
On December 18, the Australian Financial Review reported that a bid by Mirvac was being considered by new Mirvac boss Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz, following earlier discussions instigated by former managing director Nick Collishaw.
The AFR article did not name any source for its story, but said the proposal was being considered by Mirvac advisers Citigroup and was at an “early stage”.
Mirvac has not made any official statement about a bid for Australand.
For the Mirvac deal to go through, it would need the backing CapitaLand.
The Australand share price traded up 3¢ to $3.47 yesterday.
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Majority shareholder CapitaLand to review its investment in takeover target Australand 

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Queensland billionaire John van Leishout is poised to buy Homemaker City Fortitude Valley centre for around $100 million from GPT.
The Fortitude Valley Centre measures 38,300 square metres of lettable space and was valued at $100.2 million as of June 30 2012 with 36 tenancies in place.
The centre brought in six-month income of $4.2 million delivering a capitalisation rate of over 9%.
Major tenants are Harvey Norman, Domayne, Nick Scali and Freedom Furniture.
Van Leishout made his fortune from discount furniture store Super Amart in Brisbane's outer suburbs.
The mooted sale, reported by the Australian Financial Review, comes as GPT sells its non-core assets.
Earlier this week GPT sold two other bulky good centres in its Queensland Homemaker City portfolio.
It sold The Homemaker City Jindalee to BB Retail Capital for $50.5 million and the Homemaker City Aspley to a private investor for $41.2 million.
The sales of the centres are being negotiated by Jones Lang LaSalle’s Australian head of retail investments Simon Rooney.
Rooney says bulky good centres represent strong buying opportunities for specialist investment groups following the withdrawal of institutional investors from the sector.
He says over $486.5 million of bulky goods centres sold in 2012, double the value of 2011
GPT’s head of investment management Carmel Hourigan says the sale of the non-core assets would further strengthen the quality of the retail portfolio and support the group’s move towards its target weightings.
“GPT is committed to portfolio weightings of 15% for logistics and business parks, 35% for office and 50% for retail,” says Hourigan.
“While these target weightings can be achieved through organic growth, GPT will also continue to look at strategic investment opportunities.”
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Billionaire John van Leishout to buy Fortitude Valley bulky goods centre for $100 million

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A Springvale agent’s representative has been fined $3,000 and reprimanded after he and his wife bought a property that his employer was selling - without telling the client, his employer or authorities.
Michael Minh Le, who worked for MCDRE Springvale Pty Ltd, failed to get his client’s permission to buy the property.
He also failed to notify the director of Consumer Affairs Victoria, as required by the Estate Agents Act 1980 (the Act).
In its January 4 judgement VCAT found that Le "did not at all times act fairly and honestly" and “continued to act for his principal despite a conflict of interest, by continuing to act for the client and failing to inform his principal that the offer was from his wife”.
Le was fined $3,000 by Consumer Affairs Victoria having previously been reprimanded by VCAT on January 4 2011.
The agency returned its $10,460 commission to the client in December 2011 upon learning of Le’s actions.
The case dates back to March 2011, when the client engaged MCDRE Springvale to auction her property in Union Grove, Springvale.
She told the agency she required settlement within two months of the auction date - 16 April 2011 - as she had already bought another property.
Le supervised the open for inspections and attended the auction, which attracted only one bidder. The property had a reserve price of $570,000 but was passed in at $535,000.
After failing to buy the property at auction, the sole bidder made further offers of $540,000 and $550,000 with differing settlement terms. The client rejected these and the property remained for sale.
Le then gave the agency’s officer in effective control (OIEC) an offer of $523,000, without stating that it came from his wife. The OIEC passed this offer to the client, who accepted it on 29 April 2011 with an 'and/or nominee' clause.
Le and his wife became the registered owners of the property on 20 June 2011.
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Springvale estate agent’s representative fined $3,000 after buying client’s house without permission

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Approvals for private sector houses fell 0.3% in November to 7,518, according the latest ABS building approval figures.
This was the second successive month that approvals for new houses have fallen though October's 1.5% decline was upwardly revised to just a 0.2% fall.
Building approvals for houses fell in all states except WA, which managed a 6.8% rise in November.
Private sector house approvals fell in South Australia (-7.6%), Queensland (-4.9%), New South Wales (-2.2%) and Victoria (-0.2%).
Building approval figures are forward indicators of future construction activity and the November figures indicate little hope of a near-term pick-up for the struggling home building sector, except for those builders operating in WA.
Over the past 12 months to November building approvals for new houses are up just 0.5% despite five cash rate cuts over this period and NSW, Queensland and South Australian state governments incentivising the purchase of new homes by first-home buyers.
Despite little growth in house approvals over this period, CommSec economist Craig James suggested this was in line with "normal" activity.
"There is a lot of hand-wringing about home building, but the figures show activity is basically 'normal'," says James.
"The number of approvals to build new homes is currently in line with the decade average and actually 3% stronger than the 5-year average.
"Like a lot of the Australian data at present, the home building industry is actually operating fairly normally. Data out yesterday showed 'normal' growth of retail spending at large retailers, the jobless rate is low near 5% and broader economic growth is not far away from average or “normal” growth," he says.
Apartment approvals increased by 10.1% over November to 5,552 to be up 36.4% year-on-year.
Across both houses and units, dwellings approved rose 2.9% in November 2012, in seasonally adjusted terms, following a fall of 5.1% in the previous month mainly due to a strong 8.7% rise in Victoria 
"Victoria has been building the most dwellings (about 33% of the national total) for the past few years. So its movements control the national outcomes," says the Commonwealth Bank's Diana Mousina.
The value of total building approved fell 4.1% in November, in seasonally adjusted terms, and has fallen for two months.
The value of residential building rose 2.7% while non-residential building fell 14.4%.
The value of renovation approvals fell 2% in November, leaving it 6% lower for the year. 
"All told, total approvals outcome was in line with expectations, the ongoing weakness in private house approvals remains a concern," says Westpac.
Commenting on the November figures, Peter Jones, Master Builders Australia’s chief economist says the bounce in approvals is welcomed, but the nascent recovery has yet to move out of first gear.
“November’s headline increase in approvals appears to be narrowly based, reliant on an unsustainable spike in inner Melbourne units rather than any broad-based upswing.
“The danger is that the recovery could run out of steam as the impact of previous interest rate cuts appear to have failed in lifting new homebuyer confidence and underpinning a sustained housing recovery.
“Authorities are banking on a strong revival in residential building as the economy loses mining as its key driver. For this to eventuate, the Reserve Bank should cut interest rates at the next board meeting in February,” he says.
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WA the only bright spot as detached house approvals fall 0.3% in November: ABS

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Retail sales rose only 0.1% in November, below expectations, but economists and retail property analysts are reasonably confident of a good year for retailers and retail property landlords in 2013.
Shopping centre owners and retail landlords with a high proportion of service-orientated tenants, such as cafes, restaurants and travel, and entertainment operators should be well placed, and there is also expected to be a continued expansion of overseas retailers into Australia.
In addition, the ABS figures suggest the larger chain stores and supermarkets are continuing to perform well, (though department stores are still struggling).
Michael Bate, Colliers International head of retail, is optimistic about 2013, after the sector underwent what he calls “significant structural change” in 2012 following two decades of outperforming the commercial property sector as a whole.
“While retailers will continue to review their store portfolios with a view to improving performance, most domestic retailers have now completed their network rationalisations and we anticipate some will look at expansion at 2013,” he says.
He says the retail sector will be influenced by the impact of interest rate cuts on household disposable income, the level and intensity of price discounting by retailers and the management of operating costs by both property owners and retailers.
While figures from the all-important Christmas retail period are not yet available, Bate says Colliers expects a modest improvement in retail spending in 2013, with “household incomes to be supported by rate cuts, cushioning the impact of slower wages growth and higher taxes”.
“Retail spending remains below long-term averages in Australia, but the volatility experienced over the past six months has now moderated,” he says.
Nora Farren, Colliers International research director and author of the latest Colliers International retail research and forecast report, says that from an investment perspective, retail assets remain appealing.
“High quality, dominant shopping centres are still performing well despite the slowdown in retail turnover growth.
“They continue to be viewed as a defensive investment class. Retail has also been the beneficiary of capital inflows from overseas investors. The high relative yield spread (due to low bond yields) combined with the global appetite for low-risk investments are supporting this demand. Foreign investors have been active in the retail property sector, with several major sales involving offshore institutional investors,” she says.
She says “experience with convenience” will keep consumers coming back to shopping centres.
“Consumers are spending more on experiences such as travel and at cafes and restaurants. As a result, we are seeing increased focus on entertainment, lifestyle and food precincts in shopping centres, as perceptions change as to what attracts consumers to a centre, and keeps them there for longer,” says Farren.
She also expects the influx of overseas retailers to Australia continue “apace next year”.
“This charge is being led by US brands, but retailers from Europe and increasingly Asia are looking to expand into Australia.
“While the entrance of offshore retailers has some domestic retailers shaking in their boots, the arrival and positive view of our market potential should be a comfort to our industry. Positives can be taken from the renewed interest in retail that these new brands generate.”
 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
However, it is likely to be a continued struggle for many smaller retailers, especially those selling discretionary items that can be bought more cheaply online.
Landlords with retail investment in the mining states appear well-placed, with WA annual retail growth to November standing at 8.6% and Queensland at 4.8% per annum, compared with NSW managing just 2.2% annual retail sales growth and Victoria. 1.2%.
At face value, the November ABS figures were a disappointment, with the market tipping a 0.3% rise in November and earlier rate cuts in May and June totalling 75 basis points appearing to have little impact on consumer spending.
With October's flat outcome left unrevised, the annual pace of retail sales growth moderated further to 2.9%.
Westpac economist Elliot Clarke points out that in trend terms, retail sales are now growing at “an insipid 0.05% per month – a 0.6% annualised rate”.
He also points out that all the growth in retail sales in November was solely due to a 1.2% increase in “takeaway activity” with cafe and restaurant activity falling 0.4%.
“Arguably, this is further evidence of consumers economising, favouring eating at home over eating out. Basic food retailing was flat, possibly due to falling fruit and vegetable prices,” says Clarke.
Department store sales fell for a third successive month by 0.4%, clothing &amp; footwear experienced its fifth consecutive decline (–0.6%)  and household goods retailing declined by a further 0.9%.
Clarke concludes that retail sales growth will again be weak in December and in 2013.
However,  CommSec economist Craig James notes that sales by “larger retailers” rose by 0.5% over November and “soared to record highs”, with larger retailers now accounting for a record 64.8% of all retail trade.
<img src="/images/stories/2013/01/absjan10.gif">
The large retailers segment refers to 500 of the biggest retailers in surveyed by the ABS each month, whose results are not weighted due to their size, unlike the 2,750 'smaller' retail businesses that are weighted.
The ABS does not provide details of which businesses are included in this category, but says the results indicate that some of the larger business chains such as supermarkets are doing well, while others (notably department stores) are struggling.
 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
According to James, this could indicate that larger retailers are continuing to take business from small business, but may also indicate the growing tendency to purchase goods online as the major online businesses are in the large retailer sector.
While the mystery remains as to what impact online sales is having on retailing figures, James says there is “good reason to suspect that retail spending is stronger than the top-level data suggests. In fact, much closer to ‘normal”.
“I think 2013 will be a better year for retailers,” James tells Property Observer.
While there will be further pressure on retailer margins, he says he is “reasonably positively” about 2013 provided there are no major overseas disasters.
Factors in favour of a better year for retailing include low unemployment, improved housing affordability and lower interest rates meaning consumers can be a little more confident, says James.
"Consumers will still continue to look for bargains and compare store prices with what is available online."
He says service-orientated retailers (cafes, restaurants, travel and entertainment providers) should continue to do well.
ANZ economists Riki Polygenis and Justin Fabo also note the better performance of larger retailers  "trending higher in contrast to the broadly flat profile for small retailers’ sales over the past 18 months"
They say that recent weakness in retail sales appears "heavily concentrated among smaller retailers, with sales well down from their peak in June".
"These retailers tend to have less flexibility to maintain sales via discounting, marketing and other strategies and a higher share of their sales are likely to be discretionary,says Polygenis and Fabo.
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Better year expected for retail property sector despite 'insipid' November ABS sales result

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Greater financial incentives are being offered to first-home buyers in Victoria following the raising of the stamp duty discount for homes priced under $600,000 from 20% to 30%.
The higher discount kicked in on January 1, 2013, and applies to both existing homes and new homes, delivering first-home buyers additional savings starting from $600 to a maximum of just over $3,000 on a house price at $600,000.
First-home buyers can work out their stamp duty savings using this table provided the <a href="https://www.sro.vic.gov.au/sro/sronav.nsf/LinkView/C88211C9E07486F0CA2578B70001025018E490D796850F8ECA2575C1008187C7" target="_blank">Victorian government’s State Revenue Office.</a>
Maximum stamp duty savings are now over $9,000. Combined with the existing first-home owners' grant of $7,000 there is nearly $16,000 in savings for those first-home buyers who are willing to venture into the property market in 2013.
The stamp duty discount will rise to 40% on January 1, 2014, and to 50% on September 1, 2014.
To qualify for the stamp duty discount, first-home buyers must also qualify for the $7,000 first-home owners’ grant.
All added up it means Victorian first-home buyers purchasing an existing home receive the highest amount of financial support from their state government.
South Australia, NSW and Queensland all offer higher total incentives and savings, but these are restricted to buying or building a new home.
This is what the other states are offering first-home buyers in 2013:
NSW
A first-home buyer who purchases a $550,000 new home will get $35,240 in assistance.
This includes a $15,000 grant for first-home owners who purchase or build a new home valued at up to $650,000. The grant is available until December 31, 2013, reducing to $10,000 from January 1, 2014.
Non-first-home buyers who buy a new home are eligible for $5,000 whether the new home is off the plan or newly built with a value up to $650,000, The $5,000 grant is also available to buyers of vacant land that is intended to be the site of a new home valued up to $450,000.
First-home owners are also eligible for a maximum stamp duty saving of $20,240 for homes up to a value of $550,000, with duty concessions for new homes valued between $550,000 and $650,000. The transfer duty exemption cap on vacant land is $350,000, with duty concessions for vacant land valued between $350,000 and $450,000.
Queensland
A $15,000 first-home owner construction grant (FHOCG) is available. The FHOCG applies to new property bought or built at a value under $750,000.
First-home buyers also pay no duty on purchases up to $500,000, with a phasing-out rebate applicable for values up to $600,000.
For non-first-home buyers, the Queensland government offers a concessional stamp duty rate of 1% up to a value of $350,000, with stamp duty charged at normal rates for the remaining value of the home purchase. The buyer must occupy the home for a period of 12 months – an applicant may lose the concession if he sells or leases part or all of the home before moving in or within a year of moving in.
 
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South Australia
South Australian first-home buyers have the chance to secure $23,500 from the state government, provided they build a new home.
The $23,500 handout comprises a doubled first-home owner grant of $15,000 for contracts entered into on or after October 15 and up to a value of $575,000, plus a further $8,500 housing construction grant (HCG). The housing construction grant replaces the $8,000 first-home bonus grant.
The HCG is available to all builders of new homes for properties valued up to $400,000, phasing out for properties valued up to $450,000 where contracts are entered into between October 15, 2012, and June 30, 2013, inclusive.
Concessions could rise to $39,830 if first-tome buyers buy an apartment off the plan in the Adelaide CBD under $400,000, where a stamp duty concession of $16,330 applies.
This part of a new stamp duty concession scheme available on the transfer of a new CBD apartment or a "substantially refurbished apartment" for a contract entered into from May 31, 2012, to June 30, 2014, capped at stamp duty payable on a $500,000 apartment of $21,330.
An example where a $39,830 saving would be available to a first-home buyer is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.realestate.com.au/project-aria+on+gouger-sa-adelaide-600000551">Aria on Gouger Street </a>being developed by Brock Urban Projects, where two-bedroom apartments are priced from $335,750.
Up until June 30 2014, South Australian first-home buyers of established homes are entitled to a $5,000 grant. From July 1, 2014, no first-home owner grant is available to purchasers of established homes.
 
WA
A $7,000 first-home owner grant remains in place for a newly constructed or established home. It does not apply to vacant land purchased to build a new home. The total value of the home must not exceed $750,000 if the property is located south of the 26th parallel of South Latitude, or $1 million if located north of the 26th parallel of South Latitude. First-home buyers eligible for the $7,000 grant pay no stamp duty on homes valued up to $500,000 and up to $300,000 for vacant land.
ACT
A $7,000 first-home owner grant remains in place for both existing and new homes where the price of the property or construction of the home does not exceed $750,000.
Tasmania
A $7,000 first-home owner grant remains in place for both existing and new homes, with no cap on the value.
Tasmanian first-home buyers buying or  building a new home (including off-the-plan) are eligible for an additional $8,000 under the First Home Builder Boost Scheme, which applies from January 1 2013 to June 30 2014 if the qualify for the first-home owner grant.
Northern Territory
A $7,000 first-home owner grant remains in place for both existing and new homes where the price of the property or construction of the home does not exceed $750,000.
The NT government also offers first-home owners stamp duty concession of up to $26,730 (the duty owed on the first $540,000 value of a property).
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Victorian government offers bigger carrot to first-home buyers: Government housing incentives in 2013

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Cash rate cuts made by the RBA, around 80% of which have been passed on by lenders, have not stimulated buyers' appetites for new residential property, according to Brett Draffen, chief executive of development at Mirvac.
In an interview with Australian Financial Review TV, Draffen highlighted the muted impact that interest rate cuts have had to date on activity and prices in the property market – a point made by other property market analysts, including Laing+Simmons general manager <a href="/news">Leanne Pilkington</a>, following the December rate cut.
Draffen says the interest rate reductions have not made a “meaningful change” at Mirvac sales offices and the level of transactions they are doing.
“They are positive initiatives but we are still in that overarching observation of a lack of confidence," he says.
Draffen says he is more optimistic about that benefits of rate cuts starting to flow through in 2013 into transaction activity but Mirvac is yet to see it at this stage.
In December, following the RBA cutting the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3%, Pilkington said the Reserve Bank  "no longer has the relevance or power to stimulate housing market activity as the banks are either not passing on the cuts, or passing on only a fraction of them".
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Rate cuts having no 'meaningful' impact on residential development sales: Mirvac

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/broadbeach-qld-4218">Broadbeach</a> offers plenty of reasons to live vertically, but moving from a substantial family home into an apartment can expose the compromises of high-density living. Privacy, room for guests and usable living space tend to matter more when an apartment is intended as a permanent home rather than an occasional coastal base.

A typical residential floor at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-eveleigh-broadbeach-7-9-surf-parade-broadbeach-qld-4218">The Eveleigh</a>, on Surf Parade,&nbsp;contains just four apartments. The 94-residence development by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hirsch-faigen">Hirsch &amp; Faigen</a> is predominantly made up of expansive three-bedroom homes, with a limited collection of half-floor penthouses above.

Across the apartment floors, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> has used the relatively limited number of residences to give each home greater access to natural light and outlook. Living spaces extend towards full-height glazing, while a series of bay windows frame selected views across the Pacific Ocean, city and hinterland rather than treating the building edge as a continuous wall of glass.

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“The apartment floors deliver a collection of homes that embrace controlled outlook via a series of bay windows deliberately framing moments of view,” Rothelowman Director Kim Lowman said.

From outside, those projecting forms contribute to the tower’s faceted profile. Strong horizontal and vertical elements establish its proportions, while the changing position of the sun alters the light, shadow and reflection across the façade throughout the day.

The same attention moves inside the apartments, where the material palette combines warm timber, natural stone, metallic detailing and softer curved forms. Kitchens sit within the main living zone, with stone island benches, integrated joinery and European appliances, before the living areas extend towards the glazing and the outlook.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360981]

Three genuine bedrooms provide room to accommodate family and guests, while two secure car spaces and storage address some of the practical considerations that can become more noticeable when moving from a larger home. Feedback from the display suite has centred on the warmth and restraint of the interiors, with buyers commenting that the residences feel like homes rather than conventional coastal apartments.

A limited collection of half-floor penthouses occupies the upper levels, increasing the scale of the living spaces and adding private balconies and elevated finishes. From this position, the outlook extends between the ocean and hinterland.

Outside the private residences, The Eveleigh separates its shared spaces between the podium and rooftop. The podium is centred on wellness, with subtropical landscaping surrounding a swimming pool and pool terrace, yoga garden, private gymnasium, sauna and hot and cold plunge facilities. Landscaped retreats and pavilions provide additional places to sit away from the main recreation areas.

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Higher in the building, a rooftop pavilion and private dining suite sit alongside resident lounge, barbecue and outdoor dining areas, opening towards panoramic views across the ocean, city and hinterland.

“Buyers are no longer just looking for an apartment, but a lifestyle where they can relax, reset, and enjoy a balanced way of living,” Hirsch &amp; Faigen Director of Sales Matt George said.

Interest to date has come from established owner-occupiers and interstate lifestyle purchasers, including buyers planning a future move to the Gold Coast. Many are coming from larger homes and want to reduce ongoing maintenance without giving up space for family and guests, privacy, two car spaces or the ability to entertain at home.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360969]

Much of that daily life can also take place beyond the building without requiring a drive. Kurrawa Beach and Pratten Park are an easy walk from Surf Parade, while Pacific Fair, Oracle Boulevard, The Oasis, restaurants, cafés, entertainment and public transport are also within walking distance.

The Eveleigh is Hirsch &amp; Faigen's fourth Gold Coast development since entering the market in 2021, following The Hemingway at Palm Beach, The Emerson at Kirra and Yves at Mermaid Beach. Each of the preceding projects sold out before completion.

“Broadbeach had been on our radar throughout our time operating on the Gold Coast,” the developer said. “Following our projects in Palm Beach, Kirra and Mermaid Beach, Broadbeach represented the natural next step for the business.”

The Surf Parade site brought together proximity to the beach, protected coastal outlooks and walkability to dining, shopping and recreation. Hirsch &amp; Faigen also identified the street as an emerging premium residential address, with enough separation from Broadbeach's busier destinations to retain a quieter environment at home.

The Eveleigh is now under construction by Maxcon, with completion forecast for mid-2028. Three-bedroom residences are currently available from $2.87 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=149670]

Joel Robinson

The Eveleigh brings house-like apartments to Broadbeach

A long-stalled Campbelltown development site is back in play, with new plans for 139 apartments set to supersede a mixed-use scheme approved almost a decade ago but never built.

The new proposal for 28 Cordeaux Street would deliver 116 market and 23 affordable apartments in a part 14-storey building, bringing a substantial new project into a Campbelltown market where new apartment supply remains limited.

Plans have been filed over the 3,092 sqm corner site at Moore-Oxley Street, around 600 metres from Campbelltown Railway Station and the city-centre retail core.

The site already carries a mixed-use residential approval dating to 2016. Doroch Architects has now been engaged on a larger replacement scheme, which is progressing as a State Significant Development Application following a Housing Delivery Authority determination in August 2025.

The apartment mix comprises 39 one-bedroom, 72 two-bedroom and 28 three-bedroom residences. Two-bedroom apartments make up just over half of the project, while three-bedroom homes account for 20 per cent.

<img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="136dd5b9-3791-4da6-9e31-76f533f5b4de" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da2.png?VersionId=LgOSy9nwf5u.MGswBBwaGGxuX8QpHSl_" />

Of the 139 apartments, 23 will be delivered as affordable housing under the in-fill affordable housing provisions of the Housing SEPP. The affordable component represents 15 per cent of the residential gross floor area and will be managed by a registered Community Housing Provider.

Doroch has sought to break the scale of the building into two distinct elements, with a masonry podium of around four storeys establishing the street edge before the residential tower steps back above.

The corner position has shaped that approach. Cordeaux Street faces toward the commercial and civic centre, while Moore-Oxley Street leads into the lower-scale residential neighbourhood to the south, and the design verification report describes the site as "bridging the commercial core to the north and established residential areas to the south."

The podium will be expressed predominantly in face brick, while the upper levels shift to brushed and grooved concrete cladding with darker metal detailing. Recessed sections, deep balcony edges and landscaping break down the upper form, with an approximately 11.8-metre setback to the northern boundary addressing the adjoining St Peters Anglican School.

<img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c8b3d2d3-c561-4bfc-a5d9-a68c0c10dac1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da1.png?VersionId=AeAEyJU02Gk2k5noUj2StziCvdQ7fW4B" />

Campbelltown has been starved of new residential developments in the last decade.

The only other notable development set to come to market this year is ALAND's Queen Square, a mixed-use precinct on over two hectares that will comprise apartments above a vibrant ground-level retail and hospitality dining precinct.

First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site

First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches apartments for low-rise Deception Bay

Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

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The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

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Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

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Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

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Larry Schlesinger

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