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Research by RP Data shows that while capital city values are climbing, rental yields began to decline and with further drops expected to emerge over the coming year.

Although value growth may be strong at the time when mortgage rates are incredibly low, once rates eventually increase, value growth can quickly slow which was evident in late 2009 and 2010.
While there are benefits associated with negative gearing, investors may like to look at the longer term costs and benefits associated with housing market investment rather than just speculating on a short-term capital gains. The problem with a strategy around purchasing for investment purposes in the current market is two-fold.
<img src="/images/stories/2013/10/11/kucher-oct-11-one.png" width="470" height="216" alt="kucher-oct-11-one">
Firstly, capital gains as opposed to rental return is not realised until the point of sale. Secondly, although home value growth may be strong at a time when mortgage rates are incredibly low, once rates eventually increase, value growth can quickly slow. A feature rarely seen across the residential housing market is simultaneous growth in values and growth in rental rates.
Given that yields are based on rental rates and home values, if values rise quicker than rents you will see an erosion of rental returns.
The September RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index covering capital city house values shows an increase by 5.7% over the past year while unit values increased by 4.4%. At the same time, rental rates increased by just 3.1% for capital city houses and 2.6% for capital city units.
<img src="/images/stories/2013/10/11/kucher-oct-11-two.png" width="470" height="194" alt="kucher-oct-11-two">
Over the years, the annual rate of rental growth has seldom outpaced the annual rate of home value growth. The two instances in which this has occurred was when home values fell through 2008, 2011 and 2012. Of note is that rental rates never fell on an annual basis over the period however, the growth was generally moderate.
Movement in gross rental yields over recent time shows that as home values experienced strong growth throughout early 2000, a significant deterioration in rental yields was evident. Since that time an improvement in yields during 2008 and 2011/12 can be seen as rental growth outpaced value growth. However, yields never returned to their previous highs. In recent times, gross rental yields have started to ease as growth in capital city home values outpaced rental growth.
There will always be discrepancies between the performances of rental growth across individual capital cities. If we firstly look at the annual change in major capital city rental rates we will see that the general trend is that rental growth is either slowing or quite sluggish.
<img src="/images/stories/2013/10/11/kucher-oct-11-three.png" width="470" height="192" alt="kucher-oct-11-three">
Rental growth for homes across the major capital cities over the past year has been recorded at: 3.6% in Sydney, 2.1% in Melbourne, 2.3% in Brisbane, 2.5% in Adelaide and 4.6% in Perth. At the same time 12 months ago, the annual rental growth figures were: 2.0% in Sydney, 1.2% in Melbourne, 2.5% in Brisbane, 0.3% in Adelaide and 11.4% in Perth.
Sales volumes estimates show that over the three months to July 2013, sales were higher across each major capital city than over the same period the previous year. As the number of homes purchased increases, this should alleviate many of the rental growth pressures present in the market, reducing the scope for investors to significantly lift rental rates. Given this, the outlook for rental growth is that although it may continue to rise, it is likely to do so at a moderate pace.
<img src="/images/stories/2013/10/11/kucher-oct-11-four.png" width="470" height="216" alt="kucher-oct-11-four">
For Sydney, Melbourne and Perth, value growth over the past year has outstripped rental growth. Should this continue, there will undoubtedly be a further deterioration of rental yields.
In Brisbane and Adelaide rental growth has marginally outperformed value growth however; the gap has narrowed significantly over the year.
With values anticipated to continue to increase in Sydney and Melbourne and the potential for value growth to accelerate in Brisbane and Adelaide over the coming year, we should expect further erosion of rental yields.  
<img src="/images/stories/2013/10/11/kucher-oct-11-five.png" width="470" height="218" alt="kucher-oct-11-five">

<hr>
Cameron Kusher is senior research analyst at <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.myrp.com.au/">RP Data</a>.
 
 
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Capital city home values rising while rental yield returns are declining: Cameron Kusher

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An increase of 8.7% in property values since the market trough in May 2012 indicates that the housing market is once again back in a growth phase, however, data out today indicates more subdued conditions than some may be expecting.  

The current rate of value appreciation is nowhere near as strong as the growth in values over previous value growth phases.
Although there is some clear strengthening of values, the magnitude of the increase is less than what was recorded during previous growth cycles despite positive data released in the September RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index results earlier this week.
<img src="/images/stories/2013/10/03/kusher-oct-3-one.png" width="470" height="238" alt="kusher-oct-3-one">
While the results showed that capital city home values increased by 5.5% over the past 12 months, and by 8.7% since their recent low point in May 2012, other recent growth periods in the housing market, specifically at the beginning of 2001, 2007 and 2009 show that the rise in values during the current cycle is significantly more modest when compared with these cycles.
Home values across the combined capital cities have been rising since May last year and are now 8.7% higher over the 17 months (including May). Over the 17 months from December 2003 to April 2002, combined capital city home values had increased by 27.6%. The 2007 housing market recovery ran for exactly 17 months with home values rising by 15.1% over that period. Over the 17 months from December 2008 to April 2010 combined capital city home values increased by a total of 19.3%.
Value growth over the first 17 months from December 2001 was three times greater than value growth over the most recent growth phase. In 2007 growth was almost double that of the current period and over the same period post December 2008 values had grown at more than double the current rate of value growth.
<img src="/images/stories/2013/10/03/kusher-oct-3-two.png" width="470" height="257" alt="kusher-oct-3-two">
A further investigation into value growth data across each capital city over these three recent market growth phases shows some interesting findings.
Over the three previous growth phases Melbourne’s housing market recorded the strongest level of capital growth followed by Sydney in 2001 and 2009, and by Brisbane in 2007. In the current recovery phase, the market has taken its lead from Sydney followed by Perth and Darwin (although capital gains in these latter two markets is now decelerating).
In 2001, Darwin showed an extremely muted response to the beginning of the market growth phase and Perth’s initial growth was lower compared with most other capital cities. In 2007, value growth through the recovery was comparatively weak in Perth, Hobart and Sydney. In the 2009 growth phase it was Hobart, Adelaide and Brisbane which experienced the weakest rebound in home values. Looking at the current growth phase, it has once again been Hobart, Adelaide and Brisbane that have experienced the most moderate response.
<img src="/images/stories/2013/10/03/kusher-oct-3-three.png" width="470" height="279" alt="kusher-oct-3-three">
Based on this data it seems as if the national housing market tends to be led by the Melbourne and Sydney housing markets with the recovery across other capital cities generally lagging behind. Today’s results which are evidenced in the accompanying charts show that the remaining capital cities tend to lag the two largest cities.
Another point worth noting is that the periods of strong capital growth in Sydney and Melbourne have tended to not be as long as those in the other major capital cities. This was particularly noticeable in the 2001 growth phase where value growth had slowed in Sydney and Melbourne but continued for a much longer period in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth.
With value growth typically commencing in Sydney and Melbourne where home values tend to be much higher than those in the other major capital cities, it is no surprise that growth phases tend to be shorter as affordability constraints arise.
<img src="/images/stories/2013/10/03/kusher-oct-3-four.png" width="470" height="237" alt="kusher-oct-3-four">
Given that historically growth periods have tended to be shorter in Sydney and Melbourne than those in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth it would be reasonable to anticipate that the current rate of value growth will not continue for an extended period of time.
It is also reasonable to expect that over the coming month’s value growth in Brisbane and Adelaide, where the recovery to-date has been quite dormant, we may start to see stronger value growth conditions as the affordability of these cities improves relative to the other major capital cities.
 
<hr>
 Cameron Kusher is senior research analyst at <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.myrp.com.au/">RP Data</a>.
 
 
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Housing market back in growth phase, despite subdued growth: Cameron Kusher

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Queensland’s capital city, Brisbane, is the largest municipality in Australia.  There are 1,110,473 people that live in Brisbane, comprising just fewer than 5% of Australia’s population.  The second largest council, which is also in the south-east corner of Queensland, is the Gold Coast where the population is less than half that of Brisbane’s at 526,173 persons. 
In fact, four of the top five council regions (including the entirety of the ACT) are located in south-east Queensland; the other two are Moreton Bay and Sunshine Coast.  These four council regions alone account for slightly more than 10% of the national population.
Not only is the Brisbane City Council region large in both area and population, it is growing rapidly.  Over the past 10 years the area has increased in population by about 20,200 persons each year or nearly 1,700 new residents every month.
There are some benefits of having a large council.  The taxation base is larger providing some economy of scale and the urban planning and approval process tends to be much more streamlined.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2354" alt="Largest LGAs" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Largest-LGAs.jpg" width="470" height="160" style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;">
The fastest growing council regions:
Six out of the top ten fastest growing council regions around the country are located across Western Australia and four of them are in the Perth metro area.  The Perth Council has recorded a population growth rate of 125% over the ten years to June 2012 to reach a population of roughly 19,000 residents.  The population growth rate across the Perth council area remains high at 3.7% over the 2011/12 financial year, however, councils like Serpentine-Jarrahdale (+8.1%), Kwinana (+6.6%), Armidale (+5.9%) and Wanneroo (+5.6%) have been outpacing Perth over the most recent 2011/12 period.
Rapid population growth provides both positive and negative factors for local governments.  The positive is that population growth is stimulatory – more people means a larger tax base and more demand for housing which provides a multiplier effect on the local economy as higher demand for housing translates to more employment, building materials, white goods, home furnishings etc.
The challenge with rapid population growth is to ensure infrastructure and local amenity keeps pace with the population.  More people means more traffic, a greater requirement for public transport, health care, schooling, retail facilities etc.  Delivering on infrastructure is expensive and is the area where many governments simply fail to deliver.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2355" alt="Fastest growing LGAS" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Fastest-growing-LGAS.jpg" width="470" height="174" style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;">
The fastest shrinking council regions:
The regions where population growth is in significant decline can broadly be described as regional areas often associated with agriculture.  Five of the top 10 regions where the population is shrinking the most rapidly are located across Western Australia’s wheat belt.  Camamah (-30.1%), Dalwallinu (-27.8%), Mukinbudin (-27.7%) and Wyalkatchem (-20.6%) are seeing their population dropping from an already low level.
The trend towards smaller populations across these rural areas is nothing new and is likely to continue as the average population of these areas grows older and younger cohorts move away.  A declining population creates other issues including a lack of social diversity. 
The challenge for many of these areas is to continue providing infrastructure and services across a lower taxation base.  These regions are extremely large in area which compounds the costs involved in servicing the sparse population.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2356" alt="Largest declines in population" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Largest-declines-in-population.jpg" width="470" height="157" style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;">
The councils with the highest population densities:
Nine of the 10 most densely populated council regions are located within the Sydney metro area.  The most densely populated council is Waverley where there are just over 7,500 residents per square kilometre.  The council includes popular suburbs such as Bondi, Tamarama, Dover Heights, Bronte and the Waverley.  About 80% of Waverly dwellings are units or semi-attached.
The regions with the highest population density tend to be located very close to the central business districts of each capital city and are of course synonymous with fewer detached homes, more apartments and town houses, efficient public transport systems and wide range of facilities and social options close by.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2357" alt="highest density LGAs" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/highest-density-LGAs.jpg" width="470" height="165" style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;">
 
<hr>
 Cameron Kusher is senior research analyst at RP Data.
 
 
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Western Australia home to the country's fastest growing council regions: Cameron Kusher

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Australia’s rate of population growth is continuing to ramp up, placing consistent upwards pressure on demand for housing.  The macro level demographic data is only up to date to December last year and population estimates for smaller regions such as council areas and suburbs, has only just been released current to June 2012.
At a high level, based on the December 2012 demographic statistics, Australia’s population increased by 1.8% over the 2012 calendar year; the highest rate of population since December 2009.
At a lower level, it is clear that the vast majority of Australia’s population growth continues to be most concentrated within the capital cities.  About 66% of Australia’s population reside within one of the eight capital cities, however, the overt the 2011/12 financial year the capital cities accounted for 75% of the population growth.
The rate of population growth is quite diverse from city to city and region to region.  Perth is recording the highest rate of population growth at 3.6% over the 2011/12 financial year.  Importantly, the City of Perth accounts for just 8.4% of Australia’s total population but over is attracting 18% of the population growth.
Similarly, Australia’s third largest city, Brisbane, is home to 9.7% of Australia’s population but is recording 12.1% of the nation’s population growth.
At the other end of the spectrum is Tasmania.  The capital city, Hobart, is seeing its population rise by just 0.3% while the population across regional Tasmania is absolutely flat with a 0.0% change over the year.  Not much demand for housing there.
<img style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;" height="208" width="470" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Cap-city-vs-ROS-table.jpg" alt="Cap city vs ROS table" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2325">
The maps and tables below provide a good overview about where the trends for housing demand have been most evident over the past decade.
<img style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;" height="95" width="470" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Sydney-suburb-table.jpg" alt="Sydney suburb table" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2326">
<img style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;" height="280" width="470" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Sydney-580x346.jpg" alt="Sydney" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-2327">
<img style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;" height="94" width="470" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Melbourne-suburb-table.jpg" alt="Melbourne suburb table" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2328">
<img style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;" height="280" width="470" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Melbourne-580x346.jpg" alt="Melbourne" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-2329">
<img style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;" height="95" width="470" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Brisbane-suburb-table.jpg" alt="Brisbane suburb table" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2330">
<img style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;" height="280" width="470" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Brisbane-580x346.jpg" alt="Brisbane" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-2331">
<img style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;" height="98" width="470" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Adelaide-suburb-table.jpg" alt="Adelaide suburb table" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2332">
<img style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;" height="280" width="470" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Adelaide-580x346.jpg" alt="Adelaide" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-2333">
<img style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;" height="94" width="470" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Perth-suburb-table.jpg" alt="Perth suburb table" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2334">
<img style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;" height="280" width="470" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Perth-580x346.jpg" alt="Perth" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-2335">
<img style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;" height="96" width="470" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Hobart-suburb-table.jpg" alt="Hobart suburb table" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2336">
<img style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;" height="280" width="470" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Hobart-580x346.jpg" alt="Hobart" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-2337">
<img style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;" height="95" width="470" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Darwin-suburb-table.jpg" alt="Darwin suburb table" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2338">
<img style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;" height="280" width="470" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Darwin-580x346.jpg" alt="Darwin" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-2339">
<img style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;" height="98" width="470" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Canberra-suburb-table.jpg" alt="Canberra suburb table" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2340">
<img style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;" height="280" width="470" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Canberra-580x346.jpg" alt="Canberra" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-2341">

<hr>
Cameron Kusher is senior research analyst at RP Data.  
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Where is housing demand the strongest in our capital cities? Cameron Kusher

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) housing finance data released earlier this week provided further indication of an ongoing improvement in overall housing market conditions across Australia.
The data to July 2013 showed an ongoing improvement in demand for housing finance throughout the country. Given the recent rise in home values and a lift in sales transactions off the back of low mortgage rates, I am anticipating that the increase in finance commitments will continue over the coming months as the housing market enters one of its busiest periods.
Click to enlarge
<a rel="shadowbox" href="/images/stories/2013/09/12/kusher-sept-12-one-big.jpg" title="Click to enlarge"><img src="/images/stories/2013/09/12/kusher-sept-12-one-small.jpg"></a>
Housing finance data over the month showed a continued improvement in demand for mortgages with owner occupier finance commitments increasing by 2.4%. Finance commitments for loans that weren’t refinanced increased by 2.7% over the month and refinance commitments rose by 1.7%. There were 35,356 commitments for non-refinanced loans in July 2013 which was the highest monthly figure since November 2009. There were 16,848 refinance commitments over the month which was the highest number of refinances since April 2008.
The high volume of new loans to owner occupiers indicates growing demand for home loans across this sector of the market and the high volume of refinances would tend to suggest that many home owners are now shopping around for a better loan deal as the market becomes more competitive.
Click to enlarge
<a rel="shadowbox" href="/images/stories/2013/09/12/kusher-sept-12-two-big.jpg" title="Click to enlarge"><img src="/images/stories/2013/09/12/kusher-sept-12-two-small.jpg"></a>
When refinance commitments are removed and we look at the type of owner occupier finance commitment, the surge in demand is really being fuelled by an increase in demand for existing dwellings.
In July, there were 5,265 commitments for the construction of new dwellings, 3,131 commitments for the purchase of new dwellings and 26,961 commitments for existing dwellings. Over the month, more than three of every four owner occupier finance commitments were for the purchase of existing dwellings. Year-on-year, commitments for the construction of new dwellings has increased by 1.1%, commitments for the purchase of new dwellings is up 52.1% and commitments for the purchase of existing buildings has risen by 17.4%.
Click to enlarge
<a rel="shadowbox" href="/images/stories/2013/09/12/kusher-sept-12-three-big.jpg" title="Click to enlarge"><img src="/images/stories/2013/09/12/kusher-sept-12-three-small.jpg"></a>
Investment purchases are also an important component of the overall market, unfortunately the ABS only publishes investment loan data based on value, nevertheless it still shows clear trends. Based on raw figures, there was $9.3 billion in housing finance commitments for investment purposes in July 2013. The total value was slightly down on its recent peak; however, the value of commitments was 30.6% higher than at the same time last year. The result indicates a high level of activity from investors in the housing market currently.
Value-based data for all sectors of the market revels that some very clear trends emerging. On a rolling three month average basis, there has been a clear trend of improvement across the four sectors analysed (first-home buyers, upgrade buyers, refinances and investment buyers). Based on the rolling three month average figures, investment buyers are currently accounting for 37.5% of purchasers, upgraders are accounting for 35.9% of the market, refinances are 17.8% of the market and first-home buyers are just 8.8% of the market. Based on the proportion of overall market activity, first-home buyers are sitting at around their lowest proportion of market activity since June 2004 while investors are at their highest proportion since June 2004.
<a rel="shadowbox" href="/images/stories/2013/09/12/kusher-sept-12-four-big.jpg" title="Click to enlarge"><img src="/images/stories/2013/09/12/kusher-sept-12-four-small.jpg"></a>
The housing market is now largely driven by investors and upgraders.
The low mortgage rates are proving an attractive lure for those looking to upgrade into a slightly superior home. From an investor’s perspective, returns are low across most asset classes however, when you factor in gross rental returns and capital growth homes are returning fairly attractive yields of around 10% currently.
The surprising development has been the lack of response to low mortgage rates by first-time buyers. This may be due to the fact that in a number of states first-home buyers can now only receive a grant on brand new homes, these homes often tend to be more expensive than pre-existing homes. Also, a lot of first home buyer demand was probably pulled forward into 2009 when mortgage rates were at a similar level and first home buyers could buy pre-existing homes with an additional $7,000 in addition to the first-home owners grant.

<hr>
Cameron Kusher is senior research analyst at <a href="https://www.myrp.com.au/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">RP Data</a>.
 
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Ongoing improvement within the Australian housing market: Cameron Kusher

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Capital gains move back to more sustainable levels in August
Capital city dwelling values rose a further 0.5% in August taking the cumulative recovery in residential home values to 7.0% since the market bottomed out in May last year.
{qtube vid:=D4TdqIRQsS0}
Sydney 2:30; Melbourne 3:09; Brisbane 3:53; Adelaide 4:44; Perth 5:43; Hobart 6:41; Darwin 7:38; Canberra 8:18; Closing comments 8:55; Q&amp;A 10:52.
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4TdqIRQsS0"></a>
 
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Cameron Kusher's roundup of capital city housing markets

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With values once again rising across most capital cities, RP Data has looked at the capital city locations within 10 kilometres of the city centre where you can still purchase relatively affordable homes.
Many of us want to live close to the city centre or near the water, the sad fact of the matter is that these homes are in short supply and tend to cost a lot. With capital city home values once again starting to climb, we look at the areas where you can buy at a relatively affordable price point compared with many other inner city suburbs.
As you will note, these suburbs are not the most prestigious or highly sought after however, they do enjoy close proximity to the city centre. They also often have high levels of nearby amenity and in some instances are extremely well catered to by local infrastructure.
It is also interesting to note that although houses may be too expensive for price sensitive buyers, a unit can offer the same high level of amenity and in most instances at a significantly lower buy in price than purchasing a house.
Looking across the capital cities, we can see some divergences on a city-to-city basis as well as between houses and units when looking at the suburbs with the lowest median value within 10 kilometres of the CBD.
Sydney
St Peters is the most affordable suburb for houses within a 10km radius of the Sydney CBD. Located 5.7km from the city centre it has a median value of $645,681. For units, values are much lower with Darlington the most affordable with a median value of $292,271. There are 99 Sydney suburbs within a 10km radius of Sydney with a lower median unit value that the St Peters median house value. 
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Melbourne
Bellfield is Melbourne’s most affordable suburb for houses within a 10km radius of the CBD with a median value of $493,685. Carlton has the city’s most affordable units within 10km of the city centre with a median value of $232,453, keeping in mind most units in the suburb are student accommodation. 49 suburbs within 10km of the Melbourne city centre have a lower median unit value than that of Bellfield’s median house value. <a href="https://pages.e.rpdata.com/Redirect.aspx?EQ=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" target="_blank"></a>
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Brisbane
Brisbane’s most affordable suburb within 10km of the CBD is Rocklea, it has a current median house value of $298,796. Chelmer has the most affordable units within 10km of the city centre at $306,415. Rocklea house values are a bit of an outlier because it was severely inundated by floods, if we look at house values in Chermside West ($418,735), 68 suburbs within 10km of the city have a lower median unit value than median house values in Chermside West. <a href="https://pages.e.rpdata.com/Redirect.aspx?EQ=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" target="_blank"></a>
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Adelaide
Dry Creek which is located right on the edge of a 10km radius of Adelaide has the lowest median house value within this region at $244,971. Ottoway has the lowest median unit value within a 10km radius of the city centre at $204,091. There are 18 Adelaide suburbs within 10km of the city centre with a lower median unit value than Dry Creek’s median house value. <a href="https://pages.e.rpdata.com/Redirect.aspx?EQ=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" target="_blank"></a>
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Perth
Cannington has Perth’s lowest median house value within a 10km radius of the CBD at $413,925. There are 20 suburbs within the same region that have a median unit value lower than this figure, the lowest of which is found in Glendalough ($324,219). <a href="https://pages.e.rpdata.com/Redirect.aspx?EQ=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" target="_blank"></a>
<img src="/images/stories/2013/09/09/wa-sept-9.gif" width="470" height="61" alt="wa-sept-9">
Hobart
Hobart’s most affordable suburb for houses within 10km of the city centre is Clarendon Vale with a median value of $151,089. For units, the most affordable suburb within the region is Glenorchy with a median value of $190,387. Hobart is the only capital city in which the most affordable suburbs for units within 10km of the city centre is more expensive than the most affordable suburb for houses. <a href="https://pages.e.rpdata.com/Redirect.aspx?EQ=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" target="_blank"></a>
<img src="/images/stories/2013/09/09/tas-sept-9.gif" width="470" height="75" alt="tas-sept-9">
Darwin
Farrar is the most affordable suburb in which to purchase a house within 10km of the Darwin CBD with a median value of $514,344. The most affordable suburb for units is Alawa with a median value of $331,650. There are 16 Darwin suburbs within 10km of the CBD which have a lower median value for units than Farrar’s median house value. <a href="https://pages.e.rpdata.com/Redirect.aspx?EQ=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" target="_blank"></a>
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Canberra
The most affordable suburb for houses within a 10km radius of the Canberra CBD is Crace with a median value of $372,672. There are 15 suburbs within a 10km radius of the Canberra CBD that have a median unit value lower than the median house value of Crace, the most affordable of which in Hughes ($209,269). <a href="https://pages.e.rpdata.com/Redirect.aspx?EQ=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" target="_blank"></a>
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As you’d expect, house values in the inner city areas are quite high. This is due to strong demand for houses in these regions and the fact that areas closer to the city typically have the best amenity and superior infrastructure. Inner city units offer the same benefits at typically a much lower price point, as a result it is no wonder the popularity of inner city units continues to grow.
 
<hr>
 Cameron Kusher is senior research analyst at <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.myrp.com.au/">RP Data</a>.
 
Image courtesy of Michael Renner/flickr.
 
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Affordable opportunities 10 kilometres from capital cities' CBDs: Cameron Kusher

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Recently, I looked at what happens to the housing market in the 12 months leading up to a federal election, this week I take a look at what happens in the 12 months after a federal election.  Once again, we have looked at movement in capital city home values and national house and unit sales over the 12 months following an election.

The housing market is seasonal so the time of year of the election is likely to play some part in the results however, the <a target="_blank" href="/news">12 months worth of data does show the trend in the lead-up to an election.</a>  As you will see later, the position in the market phase and changes to monetary policy may also have a significant impact on the market performance.
The five most recent federal elections have been: 3 October 1998 (Coalition win), 10 November 2001 (Coalition win), 9 October 2004 (Coalition win), 24 November 2007 (Labor win) and 21 August 2010 (hung parliament but Labor take power).
Looking specifically at the change in home values over the 12 months following a federal election you can see that in 1998, 2001 and 2004 home values rose however, following the most recent two elections home values have fallen.  Over the 12 months to July 2013, capital city home values have risen by 4.9% so the market currently has momentum going into the election, but can it be maintained for the 12 months following the election?
<a style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline-width: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent; color: #bf0000; text-decoration: none;" href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/home-values-small1.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g2266]"><img style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2267" alt="home values small" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/home-values-small1.jpg" width="470" height="169"></a>
The strongest annual increase in home values following an election was 2001, with values increasing by 16.4% followed by the 1998 election where values rose by 10.7% over the following year.  Over the 12 months following the 2001 election, interest rates increased by 50 basis points whereas following the 1998 election they fell by 25 basis points.  It is also important to remember that between 2001 and 2004 there was a national boom in Australian home values.
In 2004, capital city home values rose by just 1.8% over the following year.  This was the tail-end of the national housing boom and over this time, interest rates rose by 25 basis points.  Following the 2007 election, home values fell by 1.2% over the next year and home values fell by 3.0% over the 12 months following the 2010 election. 
Following the 2007 election, the financial crisis hit, economic growth slowed and interest rates were cut by 150 basis points from 6.75% to 5.25%.  Following the 2010 election in August, interest rates were lifted by 25 basis points over the next year as values fell.
If we look at the change over the year in national home sales, the results are reasonably similar, with volumes falling following three of the past five elections.  The most up-to-date sales information indicates that sales to May 2013 were 19.0% higher and with interest rates moving lower more recently; sales appear likely to pick-up further over the year in the lead-up to the September election, but once again will the momentum carry through the next 12 months?
<a style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline-width: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent; color: #bf0000; text-decoration: none;" href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/home-sales-small1.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g2266]"><img style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2268" alt="home sales small" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/home-sales-small1.jpg" width="470" height="169"></a>
 
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The number of home sales was higher in the year following the federal election in 1998 (13.9%) and 2004 (1.7%).  In 2001, sales volumes fell by 4.6% in the year following the election, in 2007 they fell by 27.0% and in 2010 they fell by 5.7% over the year. 
It makes sense given broader economic conditions, that volumes and values fell following the past two elections however, it is a little surprising to see that in the midst of a large real estate market boom in 2001 and 2002 although values rose 16.4% over the 12 months post-election sales activity actually fell.
Over the past five elections, home values and sales increased in 1998 when the Coalition held office for their second term and in 2004 when they took office for their fourth term.  When Labor took office in 2007, values fell by 1.2% over the next year and volumes fell by 27% of course, they also had the financial crisis to deal with at that time.  In 2010 following a hung parliament, values fell 3.0% over the next 12 months and sales volumes declined 5.7%.
How much the trends outlined above can be attributed to an election is debateable however, federal elections and the subsequent following budgets no doubt have an impact on consumer and business confidence. 
It does seem from the past five elections that when there is no change of leadership that the housing market tends to respond better post-election than when there is a change in leadership or hung parliament, notwithstanding the impact of the financial crisis following the 2007 election.
Following the upcoming election it will be interesting to see the housing market’s response. 
Housing affordability, low levels of growth in housing credit and high levels of household saving are no doubt likely to be barriers to a breakout in value growth and a surge in sales volumes.  Not to mention the forecast that the national unemployment rate will reach 6.25% by mid next year which would be its highest level since September 2002.
Despite all these constraints, home values have increased by 4.9% over the past 12 months on the back of the lowest mortgage rates in more than 50 years and rising levels of consumer, but not business confidence.
If Labor holds office do we see a continuation of rising home values and increasing sales? 
If the Coalition takes office do we see even better conditions in the housing market or do we see deterioration in market conditions? 
We simply don’t really know but it will be interesting to see in the wash-up of the election what impact it does have on the housing market.
<hr>
Cameron Kusher is senior research analyst at <a href="https://www.myrp.com.au/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">RP Data</a>.
Photo courtesy of <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/gusveitch/" id="yui_3_7_3_3_1377476609468_888">Angus Veitch</a>/flickr.
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What will happen to housing prices in the wake of a federal election? Cameron Kusher

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With property values climbing in Sydney and Perth, coupled with competition for stock intensifying in these cities and Melbourne, buyers may start to look at more affordable alternatives and focus their attention on markets such as Brisbane and Adelaide.
It will be interesting to see if this starts to happen over the coming months.
While median prices are not a preferred measure for capital growth or losses, the method is a good way to assess other aspects of the housing market such as affordability and what price points homes are currently selling for.
Around the cities, Sydney is currently, and has maintained its position as the city to hold the highest median selling prices for homes.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/stories/2013/08/kusher-aug-22-sydney.jpg" alt="kusher-aug-22-sydney" width="470" height="201">
Based on July 2013 data, in Sydney the combined house and unit median price was $570,000 which is 16% higher than the median selling price in Melbourne ($492,000), 33% higher than Brisbane ($429,000), 49% higher than Adelaide ($382,000), 15% higher than Perth ($494,600), 87% higher than Hobart ($305,000), 16% higher than Darwin ($490,000) and 14% higher than Canberra ($500,000).
In relation to other capital cities such as Melbourne, the price differential in Sydney has recently started to narrow. While there was little change over the past year compared to Perth, the gap in pricing between Brisbane and Adelaide has become more significant. Between Sydney and Brisbane the price gap is currently at its greatest level since June 2006, while for Adelaide it is at its widest since the middle of 2007.
Over time, the differential in pricing between Sydney and the other major capital cities has compressed. The gap is unlikely to revert to these previous highs.
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Starting with Melbourne, Sydney’s median price is 15.9% higher than across the city of Melbourne and Perth’s median price is 0.5% higher. The gap in pricing between Melbourne and Sydney is at its narrowest level since February 2012.
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For Perth, the gap is at its lowest level since January 2012.
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Brisbane’s median price is 12.8% lower than that of Melbourne which is the widest gap since August 2003.
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Adelaide’s median price is -22.4% lower, the largest gap since December 2010. Compared with Brisbane, home prices are higher in Sydney (32.9%),Melbourne (14.9%) and Perth (15.3%). The gap in pricing relative to Perth is 15.3% and has been relatively stable over the past year. Adelaide’s median price is -11.0% lower than those in Brisbane and the gap has been quite stable since early 2012.
The last time Adelaide home prices were higher than in any other major capital city was in November 2004 when the median house price was -0.4% lower.
There is a significant price gap between Adelaide and Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane prices. Perth’s median price is 29.5% higher than that in Adelaide and the gap has decreased over recent months.
Based on these results, there is a significant gap in pricing between Sydney and other capital cities. Melbourne and Perth prices are relatively similar with a large step down in median price to Brisbane and then a further large gap to Adelaide prices.
With home values rising at a faster pace in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth than in Brisbane and Adelaide, we expect that gaps in selling prices will increase over the coming months which may then see a shift in focus to the more affordable markets of Brisbane and Adelaide.
Note: The median house prices across the capital cities are calculated based over a rolling three month period of sales.
 
<hr>
 Cameron Kusher is senior research analyst at <a href="https://www.myrp.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">RP Data</a>.
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 Are Brisbane and Adelaide ripe to pick up an investment opportunity? Cameron Kusher

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Over recent months I have heard lots of commentary about the expected slowdown in the housing market in the lead-up to a Federal election. 
This week I have looked at the five past elections and analysed the performance of the housing market over the 12 months prior to the election in terms of capital city home value growth and national house and unit sales.
It is important to remember that the housing market is seasonal so the time of year of the election is likely to play an impact however, the 12 months’ worth of data does show the trend in the lead-up to an election.
The five most recent federal elections have been: 3 October 1998 (Coalition win), 10 November 2001 (Coalition win), 9 October 2004 (Coalition win), 24 November 2007 (Labor win) and 21 August 2010 (hung parliament but Labor take power).
Looking specifically at the change in home values over the 12 months leading up to the federal elections you can see that in each instance home values have increased.  Over the 12 months to July 2013, capital city home values have risen by 4.9% so it looks almost certain that home values will increase over the year leading up to the September federal election.
<a style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline-width: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent; color: #bf0000; text-decoration: none;" href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/home-values-small.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g2262]"><img style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2263" alt="home values small" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/home-values-small.jpg" width="470" height="169"></a>  
The strongest annual increase in home values leading up to a federal election was in 2001, with values rising by 18.8% followed by the 2007 election where values rose by 13.2%.  Over both of these periods the housing market was already in an upswing.  On the other hand, values rose by 5.7% in the lead-up to the 1998 election, 2.8% in 2004 and 8.8% in 2010.
If we look at the change over the year in national home sales, the results are somewhat different building up to election. 
The most up-to-date sales information indicates that sales to May 2013 were 19.0% higher and with interest rates moving lower more recently; sales appear likely to pick-up further over the year in the lead-up to the September election.
<a style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline-width: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent; color: #bf0000; text-decoration: none;" href="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/home-sales-small.jpg" rel="wp-prettyPhoto[g2262]"><img style="margin: 0px auto 15px; padding: 3px; border: 1px solid #e6e6e6; outline-width: 0px; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961); max-width: 100%; text-align: center; height: auto; display: block; vertical-align: bottom;" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2264" alt="home sales small" src="https://blog.rpdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/home-sales-small.jpg" width="470" height="171"></a>  
The number of home sales was higher over the year leading up to the 2001 and the 2007 elections.  In 2001, sales volumes increased by 44.6% over the year and in 2007 they rose by 33.3%.  In 1998, sales volumes fell by -2.6% over the year, in 2004 they fell by -11.0% and in 2010 they fell by -32.4%.
So over the past five election campaigns home values have risen while in only two of the past five campaigns have home values and sales volumes risen.  Values and volumes rose in 2001 when the Coalition was returned for a second term and they also both rose in 2007 when Labor took office from John Howard.
How much the trends outlined above can be attributed to an election is debateable.  Arguably the momentum of the market cycle is influencing the trends just as much as the election.  Regardless of the cause, it looks like federal elections don’t have a slowdown effect on housing market conditions.
The cynic in me suggests that the incumbent political party would generally be quite happy to see sales volumes and home values rising in the lead-up to an election. 
For most people the family home is the single largest investment and rightly or wrongly, Australians tend to feel more confident and happy when home values are rising. 
From a political stand point, around 70% of households either own their home outright or have a mortgage and rising home values is likely to be a much more palatable message to the electorate than one where the value of their largest asset is falling. 
It also suggests to me that housing affordability will remain only a minor election issue given such a large proportion of the population either own or are paying off their own home and many also have investment properties.
Cameron Kusher is senior research analyst at <a href="https://www.myrp.com.au/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">RP Data</a>.
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What effect does the federal election really have on the property market?: Cameron Kusher

Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

Joel Robinson

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

Local Little Bay residents, along with buyers from premium postcodes across Sydney’s affluent Eastern Suburbs, have dominated purchases in developer-builder Urban Property Group’s first Eastern Suburbs apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a>.

The $250 million coastal project, one of the first new developments in the area in several years, has proven particularly popular with downsizers, especially those from Coogee and Bondi. One Double Bay downsizer paid $4.7 million for a four-bedroom penthouse, setting a new local apartment price record in the process.

Buyers have been attracted to the combination of coastal tranquillity, premium design and amenity-rich neighbourhood living. The walkable village setting, along with proximity to three of Sydney’s leading golf courses, New South Wales Golf Club, St Michael’s Golf Club and The Coast Golf Club, has also been a key drawcard.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352689]

Built across two low-rise buildings designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hill-thalis-architecture-urban-projects-pty-ltd">Hill Thalis</a> and set along a lush, landscaped green spine, designed by leading landscape architect <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>, ESTE Little Bay offers a collection of one, two, three and four-bedroom residences with interiors by Richards Stanisich.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> Sales Director, Tom McIvor said the response to ESTE has been "nothing short of extraordinary."

“Buyers have been quick to recognise ESTE as a rare opportunity to invest in a coastal sanctuary that offers both seclusion and connectivity to the heart of Sydney,” McIvor said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352687]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">SRM Residential</a> Senior Director, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">Clayton Ross</a> said the local market has responded incredibly well, driven by ESTE’s exceptional location and the rarity it offers.

“We’ve seen strong interest from a variety of buyer groups, all of whom are drawn to the exclusivity and quality of the build and construction by the 4.5-star iCIRT-rated builder / developer, Urban Property Group. There’s truly nothing else like it along Sydney’s coastline.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352690]

The project also includes robust buyer protections, including Resilience Insurance’s Latent Defects Insurance, providing 10 years of structural cover, and an independent iCIRT-rating of the developer.

“The iCIRT-rating adds another layer of confidence,” Ross added. “Buyers see it as a safeguard for their investment and their lifestyle.” A highlight of ESTE’s offering is its exclusive wellness amenities, including a heated rooftop infinity pool and outdoor heated spa, a state-of-the-art Technogym fitness centre, and a sauna.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a> is topped out and is on track to complete towards the end of 2026, with residents moving in before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112343]

Cameron Kusher

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