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EXPERT OBSERVER
Suburbs comprising of larger average land sizes are generally bucking the broader capital city housing market trend and achieving stronger value changes and milder declines over the past year compared to broader capital city markets according to CoreLogic research out today.
The analysis shows the five suburbs in each capital city with the largest average land area based on sales over the 12 months to February 2019. It also shows the median value of these suburbs and the change in median values over the year.
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One of the most noticeable from this data is the fact that for houses, the annual change across these suburbs is typically superior to that across the broader capital cities.
In Sydney, house values have fallen by -11.5% over the 12 months to February 2019. Looking at the five suburbs listed, only Kenthurst has recorded a weaker annual change.
Melbourne house values are also -11.5% lower over the past year and all of the suburbs listed have seen more moderate value falls than that across Greater Melbourne.
Brisbane house values were -0.4% lower over the past year and two of the five suburbs have seen a stronger annual change.
The 0.9% annual increase in Adelaide house values means that four of the five suburbs listed have seen stronger value growth over the past year.
Perth house values are -6.7% lower over the past year with four of the five suburbs listed recording either value increases or more moderate declines than -6.7%.
Greater Hobart house values were 6.8% higher over the past year and three of the five suburbs listed have recorded growth in excess of that.
House values in Darwin increased by 0.2% over the past year and three of the five suburbs with the largest average land sizes recorded greater value increases than that.
While Canberra house values increased by 4.1% over the past year, only two of the suburbs listed recorded growth in excess of this.
Although this data broadly shows that suburbs with larger average land sizes are holding up better in the housing downturn, many buyers value larger land sizes.
As new development increasingly moves towards higher densities and smaller lot sizes for houses, large housing lots are likely to continue to be highly desirable.
The desirability won’t be only for more space, but also where the potential for future sub-division may exist. 
CAMERON KUSHER is a property research analyst for CoreLogic.
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Give me land lots of land: CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
With the housing market weakening over the past few years, most capital cities have experienced dwelling value falls with a more significant correction experienced in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and Darwin.
Although the past few decades have been characterised by increasing property values, that doesn’t mean there haven’t been periods when property values have reversed; in fact the housing market is highly cyclical with upswings generally followed by a period of falling values.
At a national level, since 1980 there have been eight separate housing market downturns (as highlighted in the first chart).
The current downturn which commenced after October 2017, has seen values fall by -6.8%. Although that may not seem like a substantial downturn, since the early 80s there have only been two downturns which were larger, 2008-09 and 1982-83.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%201.JPG" alt="">
 
National housing market downturns have also been generally fairly short-lived with the current downturn of 16 months already the second longest with the 2010-12 decline running two months longer than the current downturn.
The decline in values throughout the current downturn has been larger across the combined capital cities, with values now -8.6% lower.
By next month, assuming the falls continue, this will be the largest downturn in the combined capital city index any time since 1980.
The current downturn is also closing in on being the longest.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%202.JPG" alt="">
 
With values having peaked in September 2017, they have now been falling for 17 months with the previous longest period of decline coinciding with the last recession, running for 20 months between 1989 and 1991.
Since peaking in July 2017, Sydney dwelling values have fallen by -13.2% to February 2019.
Not only is this now the deepest period of decline it is also one of the longest. With little sign that the falls will abate over the coming months, this current downturn may end up being the deepest and longest in modern times.
This downturn is also very different to other downturns which have generally been driven by an economic contraction or higher interest rates.
This downturn is more closely linked to a significant tightening of credit conditions at a time in which the economy continues to grow and interest rates are unchanged (despite some moderate increases for owner occupiers and larger rises for investors).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%203.JPG" alt="">
 
The housing market in Melbourne peaked in November 2017 and up until the end of February 2019 dwelling values across the city have fallen by -9.6%.
Interestingly, comparing the downturn in Melbourne to Sydney, 15 months into Melbourne’s downturn values have fallen -9.6% compared to a decline of -8.2% 15 months into Sydney’s downturn.
The downturn in Melbourne’s housing market is closing in on its largest downturn of -10% between 1989 and 1992 while the downturn (so far) has been much shorter than the 36 month period in 1989-92.
 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%204.JPG" alt="">
While Sydney and Melbourne have recorded substantial increases in dwelling values over recent years and are now seeing large falls, Brisbane never saw anywhere near the magnitude of value growth during the upswing.
Despite more moderate growth in recent years, values in Brisbane are now falling on an annual basis, albeit quite moderately.
Brisbane dwelling values peaked in April 2018 and they have now declined by -1.0% to February 2019. To date the fall is moderate however, with housing market weakness entrenched values are expected to move slightly lower or, at best hold firm, over the coming months.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%205.JPG" alt="">
Much like Brisbane, value growth in Adelaide has been moderate over recent years however, that has not stopped values from starting to decline over recent months.
Values peaked in December of 2018 and have fallen over each of the past two months to be -0.3% lower at the end of February 2019.
While there have been previous periods of value falls in Adelaide, they have tended to be more moderate than those recorded across the other capital cities.
To-date the decline has been short and moderate and it will be interesting to see over the coming months whether values continue to fall.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%206.JPG" alt="">
The Perth housing market has been in an extended downturn over recent years with values having now fallen by -17.8% since their June 2014 peak.
The current downturn has run substantially longer than previous downturns and it is also a much deeper value fall than recorded across previous downturns.
In late 2017/early 2018 it was looking as if the falls were coming to an end however, the market has weakened further in line with weaker labour market and economic conditions as well as tighter credit conditions.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%207.JPG" alt="">
Hobart is the only capital city in which dwelling values are continuing to rise.
Although they are still rising, the annual rate of growth in February 2019 was recorded at 7.2% which was its slowest rate of growth since October 2016.
Housing affordability has been a big driver of growth over recent years however, housing affordability has been eroded and there is a likelihood that the rate of growth will continue to ease over coming months.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%208.JPG" alt="">
Darwin housing data commences from 1999 and over that time there have only been two downturns. The current downturn which commenced from May 2014 has now seen values in Darwin fall by -27.0%.
The downturn is significantly longer and deeper than the previous downturn and the deepest downturn recorded for any capital city over recent decades.
With weak labour market and economic conditions persisting, there is a high likelihood of further declines this year.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%209.JPG" alt="">
Canberra dwelling values fell by -0.2% in February 2019. Although there is no evidence of a negative trend, the rate of annual growth has been consistently slowing and it is clear that some heat has exited the Canberra housing market.
Although values may edge lower, the outlook for Canberra’s housing market is likely to be relatively steady conditions.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%2010.JPG" alt="">
With values now falling across most capital cities the question of course becomes when do the falls stop.
No one really knows the answer to that question, our models show, at least for the short-term, that values are likely to continue trending lower, with the rate of decline easing later this year and into 2020.
The other main question is once markets reach a trough, how quickly will the market recover?
Historically, market recoveries from their trough have generally been fairly rapid however, the recoveries have generally been driven by lower interest rates or a mix of stimulus such as the first home buyers grant boost.
Although there is an expectation that interest rates may move lower, we probably won’t see the entire rates cuts passed through to mortgage rates and the much tighter credit conditions are likely to limit any rebound in the housing market, particularly given borrowers are being assessed on their ability to repay a mortgage at a much higher rate (above 7%).
CAMERON KUSHER is a Senior Analyst for CoreLogic
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House value downturn still spreading: Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Over the 2018 calendar year, the share of sales across the six price points highlighted nationally were: 6.1% under $200,000, 24.8% between $200,000 and $400,000, 28.0% between $400,000 and $600,000, 18.7% between $600,000 and $800,000, 8.7% between $800,000 and $1 million and 13.8% at or above $1 million. 
The most prominent price point for sales was $400,000 to $600,000, while there were more sales of at least $1 million than there were below $200,000 or between $800,000 and $1 million.
The share of sales annually by price point over each five-year period from 1993 to 2018 shows how an overwhelming majority of sales occurred below $200,000 in 1993, compared to virtually no sales below $200,000 in 2018.
Over time, there has been a steady climb in the share of sales across the more expensive price points.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/7/Kush%201.JPG" alt="">
Across the combined capital cities, sales below $200,000 accounted for just 1.8% of all sales, while sales of $1 million properties accounted for 19.5% of all sales.
The dominant price point for sales over the year was $400,000 to $600,000 (28.3%).
The chart clearly highlights the rising prevalence of $1 million sales while supply of stock under $200,000 has reduced substantially.
Sales of properties under $200,000 in regional Australia accounted for 12.9% of all sales over the year, the third largest price point for sales.
The $200,000 to $400,000 price bracket accounted for the largest share of sales over the year (38.1%). Sales of $1 million properties in regional Australia (4.7%) are much less common than they are across the capital cities.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/7/Kush%202.JPG" alt="">
Over the 2018 calendar year, there were virtually no sales under $200,000 in Sydney.
By comparison, 37.0% of all sales were at or in excess of $1 million, which made up the largest cohort of sales.
A decade earlier, $1 million sales accounted for 8.9% of all sales, highlighting the increasing prevalence of million dollar sales in the city over the decade.
30.7% of all dwelling sales in regional NSW in 2018 were between $400,000 and $600,000 closely followed by 30.3% of sales between $200,000 and $400,000.
Sales of million dollar properties had the smallest share of all sales accounting for 6.3% while 9.6% of sales were less than $200,000.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/7/Kush%203.JPG" alt="">
Like Sydney, virtually nothing sold for under $200,000 in Melbourne throughout 2018.
The greatest share of sales occurred between $400,000 and $600,000 (30.4%) and $600,000 and $800,000 (27.1%).
21.7% of all sales were at least $1 million, up from 5.4% a decade earlier.
A decade ago, 51.2% of all sales were between $200,000 and $400,000 compared to just 7.2% last year.
In regional Vic, sales of properties priced between $200,000 and $400,000 were most prevalent over the year (46.7%).
$1 million sales accounted for just 2.2% of transactions, the smallest share of any price point over the past year.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/7/Kush%204.JPG" alt="">
The greatest share of property sales in Brisbane during 2018 occurred at a price between $400,000 and $600,000 (35.6%) followed by $200,000 to $400,000 (28.7%).
Over the year, just 1.7% of sales were below $200,000 compared to 7.8% at or in excess of $1 million.
In regional Qld, there were more sales under $200,000 (9.6%) than there were both five (8.1%) and 10 (7.9%) years ago.
Sales of properties priced between $200,000 and $400,000 accounted for the greatest share of sales (36.6%) followed by $400,000 to $600,000 (29.0%).
While a greater share of sales occurred under $200,000 there has also been an increase in $1 million sales, accounting for 6.0% and up from 2.7% of sales five years earlier.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/7/Kush%205.JPG" alt="">
Most properties sold in Adelaide during 2018 sold for between $200,000 and $400,000 (37.5%), closely followed by $400,000 to $600,000 (33.1%).
Interestingly, there was a greater share of sales under $200,000 in 2018 (5.3%) than there were in 2013 (4.5%).
Similarly, $1 million sales increased their share from 2.4% in 2013 to 5.1% in 2018.
In regional SA, just 5.0% of all sales in 2018 occurred at prices above $600,000.
By comparison, 32.2% of all sales were under $200,000 and 49.2% were priced between $200,000 and $400,000 with the two accounting for 81.4% of all sales compared to 85.3% five years earlier.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/7/Kush%206.JPG" alt="">
Perth dwelling values have been falling for most of the past five years. Despite these falls, the share of sales of $million properties has increased from 7.8% to 9.3%.
While $million sales have increased as a share over the past five years, so too have sales priced between $200,000 and $400,000, increasing from 24.5% five years ago to 30.7%.
There has also been a slight increase in sales under $200,000 (2.2% to 3.3%).
43.4% of all sales in regional WA in 2018 were priced between $200,000 and $400,000 in 2018 while a further 24.7% were priced below $200,000 resulting in 68.1% of sales under $400,000.
Five years earlier a much lower 57.8% of sales were under $400,000.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/7/Kush%207.JPG" alt="">
With strong value growth over recent years, over the 2018 calendar year 43.8% of all sales in Hobart were under $400,000 compared to 68.8% five years earlier.
Million dollar sales accounted for 3.8% of all sales in 2018, up from 1.4% five years earlier.
In regional Tas housing is quite affordable and most sales occur across lower price points with 77.6% of all sales in 2018 priced below $400,000.
Property sales over $600,000 accounted for 5.1% of all sales in 2018, up from just 2.2% five years earlier.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/7/Kush%208.JPG" alt="">
Just 30.8% of all sales in Darwin throughout 2013 were under $400,000.
With most of the past five years having seen dwelling values fall, a greater 41.3% of all sales in 2018 were under $400,000.
The share of million dollar sales has reduced over the past five years from 2.8% to 2.2%.
The greatest share of sales in regional NT occurred between $400,000 and $600,000 (39.0%) while $800,000 to $1 million accounted for the fewest sales (0.9%).
Five years earlier, the greatest share of sales were occurring between $200,000 and $400,000 (48.0%).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/7/Kush%209.JPG" alt="">
The greatest share of property sales in Canberra occurred between $400,000 and $600,000 in 2018 (36.7%) while five years earlier the largest price point for sales was also $400,000 to $600,000 accounting for 45.5% of all sales.
There has been a particularly large increase in the share of $million sales over the past five years, up to 8.8% of all sales from 2.8%.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/7/Kush%2010.JPG" alt="">
The clear shift over the past five years has been towards a greater share of sales at higher price points.
While you’d expect this in the markets that have seen strong value growth such as Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart, we have also seen it across markets where value growth has been much weaker.
Values are currently declining fastest across the more expensive properties and over the coming year we would expect to see the share of sales over $1 million to reduce as values continue to fall.
As a result, we’d also expect slightly more sales occurring at lower price points, we don’t expect any material change in the share of sales under $200,000, in fact they may reduce further.
CAMERON KUSHER is a Research Analyst at CoreLogic.
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Million dollar property sales became more common in 2018: Cameron Kusher

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The Reserve Bank (RBA) last week released the minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting for February 2019.
One of the things that really stood out for me was the commentary relating to the housing market, specifically relating to the impact of falling prices. The following quote is taken straight from the minutes:
"From a longer-run perspective, members assessed that, following such large increases in housing prices, the effect of the recent price falls on overall economic activity was expected to be relatively small. However, members observed that if prices were to fall much further, consumption could be weaker than forecast, which would result in lower GDP growth, higher unemployment and lower inflation than forecast. From a financial stability perspective, tighter lending standards, an improving labour market and low interest rates were all likely to support households' capacity to service their debt. Few households were in negative equity positions despite the falls in housing prices, implying that banks' losses would be limited even if household financial stress were to become more widespread."
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/2/26/household%20consumption%201%20.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/26/household%20consumption%201%20.png" alt=""> 
While it would be great to know how much further the RBA believes dwelling values would have to fall to start affecting consumption, it is looking inevitable that dwelling values will fall further over the coming months. As the above chart shows, values have now declined from their peak across each of the five largest cities in Australia, values have also recorded a significant decline over recent years in Darwin, and a more recent monthly fall in Hobart. Many other regions, including regional areas of most states and territories have recorded falls in dwelling values, with values in Regional Qld and Regional WA sitting lower than their peak for more than a decade now. The decline in dwelling values doesn’t appear to be close to finding a floor yet. This is particularly the case in the two largest markets of Sydney in Melbourne. In fact, if anything the rate of decline in both of these cities has been accelerating over recent months.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/26/household%20consumption%202.png" alt="">
The concerns about the impact of a declining housing market on household consumption are well founded. Household consumption accounts for more than half of gross domestic product (GDP) so if consumption slows, it is very likely that economic growth will also slow. To-date household consumption has been steady however; consumption isn’t growing as it did before the financial crisis and it has slowed over recent years.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/26/household%20consumption%203.png" alt=""> 
At the same time as consumption has underperformed, the household saving ratio has reduced over recent quarters, highlighting that households are saving less.  While the ratio has not fallen to the lows recorded during the 2000s it is clear that households are saving a lot less than they were initial post-GFC and this is despite inflation remaining consistently below 2%. To-date the reduction in saving has not provided a boost to household consumption and in fact, more regularly released retail trade data shows that expenditure at the shops has reduced which doesn’t bode well for consumption figures going forward.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/26/household%20consumption%204.png" alt=""> 
 
Over the 2018 calendar year, retail trade increased by 2.8%. By comparison, compound annual growth in retail trade over the past decade has been recorded at 3.3%. NSW where dwelling values are recording the greatest declines has seen retail trade increase by 1.7% over the past year, the slowest annual rate of change since March 2012. Not only is NSW the largest and most expensive housing market, it also accounts for almost one-third of national retail trade. If trade continues to slow in the largest state, it is unlikely to bode well for household consumption going forward. Given the already declining housing market, which looks set to continue, slower household consumption, below target inflation, reduced household savings and slowing retail trade, it looks likely that household consumption growth will slow further over coming quarters. As the RBA states that could lead to slower economic growth and in-turn necessitate an interest rate cut. The RBA board next meets on the 5th March. Between then and now a raft of additional data will be released including: the CoreLogic Home Value Index, private sector credit data, building approvals data and a range of inputs for the National Accounts. Unfortunately, National Accounts will not be released until the day after the RBA board meeting however, they will have plenty of new information to assess. Will it be weak enough to necessitate a rate cut? Who knows, but with the RBA shifting to a more neutral interest rate outlook, a run of poor data could see the next RBA meeting become ‘live’ for a rate cut despite not having the full data from the National Accounts until the following day. Personally, I don’t think the RBA will be ready to cut official interest rates next month but with each data release I am more convinced a rate cut is looking more likely. In fact, labour force data which has been showing an ongoing decline in the unemployment rate is the only data release which is overly positive at the moment.
Cameron Kusher is a Research Analyst at CoreLogic.
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Consumption could slow with expectations of further housing value falls: Cameron Kusher

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First home buyers have become more active in the housing market over the past year.
There has been a number of reasons for this, dwelling values have been falling which has improved affordability lessened the deposit hurdle, other segments of the market have been less active (less competition) and attractive incentives have been offered to first home buyers in certain states. The latest data on housing finance from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for December 2018 shows that perhaps that trend is reversing.
Note that all the data is seasonally adjusted so the slowdown isn’t likely to be related to seasonality.
In December 2018, there were 8,476 finance commitments by owner-occupier first home buyers which was the fewest monthly commitments since June 2017. Commitments were also -9.6% lower over the month and down -12.6% year-on-year. Although the number of commitments was lower, as a share of all owner-occupier finance commitments (excluding refinances) the share of first home buyers shifted only slightly from 26.8% the previous month to 26.4% in December 2018. The minimal change in share is reflective of the overall weakening demand for mortgages.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/28/New%20Project.png" alt="">
NSW
Across the state, there were 2,232 first home buyer commitments to owner-occupiers in December 2018, which was the fewest since July 2017. The number of commitments was -5.2% lower over the month and -3.0% lower year-on-year. In terms of the share of total owner- occupier finance commitments, first home buyers were 24.0% of the NSW market (excluding refinance) which was up from 23.6% over the previous month. However, overall owner-occupier mortgage demand (excluding refinances) has fallen by a larger -6.1% over the month compared to the -5.2% fall across the first home buyer segment.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/27/image.png" alt="">
Vic
The 2,604 first home buyer finance commitments in December 2018 were the fewest since June 2017. First home buyer commitments were -7.7% lower over the month and -14.8% lower year-on-year however, overall owner occupier commitments excluding refinances recorded a larger monthly fall (-10.4%). As a result, the share of owner-occupier housing finance commitments compared to total commitments (excluding refinances) actually rose over the month to 29.0%, its highest share since July 2013.
Given this, the share is rising however; it is rising on falling volumes for both first homebuyers and overall owner-occupiers.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/28/New%20Project%202.png" alt="">
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/28/New%20Project%202.png" alt="">
Qld
Both the number of first home buyer finance commitments and the share of first home buyers compared to new lending fell in December. Over the month, there were 1,586 owner-occupier first home buyer commitments, which was -11.1% lower over the month and -23.2% lower year-on-year. It was also the fewest first home buyer commitments since October 2015. Looking at first home buyers as a share of total new owner-occupier lending, first home buyers represented 24.3% of lending, their lowest overall share since February 2017.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/28/New%20Project%203.png" alt="">
SA
The 495 first home buyer finance commitments in December 2018 was down -6.4% on the previous month but was 2.3% higher than a year earlier. The number of first home buyer commitments in December 2018 was the lowest it has been since July 2018. First home buyer demand for new mortgages fell faster than overall demand for new mortgages and as a result, the share of owner-occupier new finance commitments to first home buyers fell from 21.6% the previous month to 20.9% in December 2019.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/28/New%20Project%204.png" alt="">
WA
The 1,164 first home buyer finance commitments in December 2018 was the fewest since June 2018. First home buyer commitments were -5.4% lower over the month and -12.7% lower year-on-year. As a share of total new lending to owner-occupiers, first home buyers in WA are active and account for 34.3% of total new lending with the share rising over the month. The relative strength of the first home buyer market is also reflective of the overall weakness in demand from non-first home buyer owner-occupiers across the state.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/28/New%20Project%205.png" alt="">
Tas
There were 154 owner-occupier first home buyer commitments in December 2018. The 154 commitments was the fewest since May 2018 with the number -8.3% lower over the month but 8.5% higher year-on-year. The sharp fall in first home buyer commitments saw them fall as a share of overall new lending to owner-occupiers, recorded at 19.7% over the month. The 19.7% share was down from 21.5% the previous month and the lowest share since April 2018.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/28/New%20Project%206.png" alt="">
NT
Because it is such a small market, first home buyer volumes tend to be quite volatile. In December 2018, there were 81 first home buyer finance commitments, which was 2.5% higher over the month and 28.6% higher year-on-year. While first home buyer lending increased, new lending to owner occupiers fell significantly over the month leading to the share of new lending to first home buyers spiking to 42.4% from 36.4% the previous month.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/28/image.png" alt="">
ACT
There were 191 first home buyer finance commitments in December 2018. Although commitments were -15.1% lower over the month and - 16.2% lower year-on-year there had been fewer first home buyer commitments in September 2018 (182). First home buyer demand fell much more substantially over the month than overall demand to owner occupiers, as a result, the share of new owner occupier lending to first home buyers was recorded at 24.0%, down from 26.3% over the previous demand.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/2/28/image%201.png" alt="">
To-date, the first home buyer segment has been the one source of growing demand across the housing market. Although the weakness has only been apparent for a few months, it will be important to watch going forward. With an entrenched downturn in lending to investors and owner occupier demand falling sharply, if first home buyer activity drops it could lead to a further leg down in value declines across the market. The more pragmatic potential first home buyers are probably seeing values decline and despite incentives, they realise that if they remain on the sidelines the properties they are targeting could be becoming even more obtainable over the coming months.
CAMERON KUSHER is a Research Analyst at CoreLogic.
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Are first home buyers waiting on the sideline? CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher

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Data for lending to households and businesses data for December 2018 was released earlier this week.
This data series replaces the old housing finance and lending finance series and includes some different data. Specifically focusing on lending to households the data shows that the weakening of demand for mortgages has continued.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/pic1.png" alt="pic1.png" width="842" height="355" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="bb33c8c9-5ed9-47d3-a589-bf7f9843bf66" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/pic1.png">
 As the above chart shows, investor mortgage lending has been weakening for some time however, over recent months there has been a rapid slowdown in lending to owner-occupiers. Over the month, there was a total of $26.0 billion in mortgage finance to borrowers which was the lowest monthly value since January 2014. The value of mortgage lending has fallen -5.2% over the month and is -15.2% year-on-year. Looking at the split between owner-occupier and investor mortgage lending, there was $18.5 billion worth of finance commitments to owner occupiers which was -5.3% lower than the previous month and its lowest value since May 2015. The remaining $7.5 billion worth of finance to investors was -4.8% lower over the month and the lowest monthly value since April 2013. While the slowdown in mortgage demand began, and is well entrenched, across the investor segment, owner-occupier mortgage demand is now also falling rapidly.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/pic2.png" alt="pic2.png" width="802" height="338" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b08c7e3c-d4d4-48b8-9ecd-078d9723d53f" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/pic2.png">
 Looking a little more granularly at the data, over the month there was $12.5 billion worth of owner-occupier finance commitments excluding refinance, $6.0 billion worth of owner occupier refinance commitments, $4.9 billion worth of non-refinance commitments to investors and $2.6 billion worth of investor refinances. The chart highlights a weakening of demand across each of these four categories however, refinance demand is generally holding up better than non-refinance. New lending to owner-occupiers is the lowest it has been since May 2015, owner occupier refinances are the lowest they’ve been since August 2017, investor new lending is at its lowest value since January 2012 and investor refinance lending is the lowest it has been since August 2018. 
The data clearly shows that housing finance commitments are falling the bigger question is what is the actual driver of the falls. According to recent commentary from the Reserve Bank in their Statement on Monetary Policy, demand is falling because of ‘significantly fewer loan applications over the past year or more.’ Personally, I am not necessarily convinced this is the only reason.
The volumes that eventually make their way to lending teams are likely to be significantly lower but is this actually occurring because of fewer people wanting a mortgage or fewer making it that far? I suspect that demand has certainly fallen but possibly it has fallen a greater amount because people are talking to the bank lender or mortgage broker and the feedback they are given is that there is no point applying because with current credit conditions this just isn’t going to get approved.
Looking at it another way, credit conditions remain tighter than they have been in many years. Although the 10% cap on investment credit growth and 30% interest-only origination limit have been removed (largely because they became redundant), both investor and interest-only borrowers continue to be charged a premium compared to owner-occupier mortgages. Furthermore, lenders are now asking a lot more questions about household expenditure than they have in the past rather than relying on an index of household expenditure. Although this may be a new normal, in the past, potential borrowers perhaps haven’t had to be so mindful of their expenditure prior to a mortgage application and there will be a period of adjustment to these new conditions.
In the past borrowers have tended to adjust their expenditure appropriately once they have taken on the mortgage rather than now when the adjustment has to be made prior to obtaining approval for the mortgage. Finally, when applying for a mortgage, borrowers are being assessed on their ability to repay a mortgage at an interest rate above 7% while most lenders will offer a new borrower a discounted variable at around or below 4%. The current cash rate futures yield curve is now suggesting a reduction in official interest rates is more likely than a hike. In my mind, 7% mortgage rates are a long way off and we won’t be getting back to those levels absent some decent household income growth.
While in isolation these individual changes to credit policy changes may not remove many potential borrowers, the combination of these changes likely result in far fewer borrowers being considered credit-worthy for a mortgage. Therefore, while application volumes are likely lower, the blame can’t solely be pointed at fewer applications when the process for applying for a mortgage has changed so dramatically over recent years.
CAMERON KUSHER is a Research Analyst at CoreLogic.
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Is it tighter credit or fewer applications hitting mortgage demand? CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher

Million $ suburbs decline as values fall: Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
According to the CoreLogic Home Value Index, dwelling values have recorded some substantial falls over the 12 months to January 2019. Four of the eight capital cities have recorded dwelling value falls while four of the seven rest of state markets have also experienced declines.
<a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/001%2012%20month%20change%20in%20dwelling%20vales.emf__0.jpg" target="_blank">Click</a> to enlarge.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/001%2012%20month%20change%20in%20dwelling%20vales.emf__0.jpg" alt="001 12 month change in dwelling vales.emf_.jpg" width="1050" height="559" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f21356ec-de3e-4809-acaf-7e17f28fcdf4" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="">
Nationally, dwelling values have fallen by -5.6% over the 12 months to January 2019 which is their largest annual fall since March 2009.
Combined capital city dwelling values were -6.9% lower over the past year while combined regional markets saw much more moderate value falls of -0.8%.  
For the combined capital cities, the -6.9% fall is the largest since February 2009 while the -0.8% fall across regional markets is the largest since October 2012. The recent declines in dwelling values are very much a different situation to the one that has played out over the past 20 years.
<a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/002%2020%20year%20change%20in%20dwelling%20vales_0.jpg" target="_blank">Click</a> to enlarge.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/002%2020%20year%20change%20in%20dwelling%20vales_0.jpg" alt="002 20 year change in dwelling vales.jpg" width="1012" height="542" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7ab6cac4-2830-4ad3-b5d0-f34972df29df" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="">
 Over the past 20 years, national dwelling values have increased by 197.4% with the combined capital cities recording stronger total value growth (212.4%) than the combined regional markets (150.3%).  
Looking at the individual capital cities, Melbourne has recorded the greatest value gains over the period (274.6%) while Darwin value growth has been the most moderate (38.4%).  The weak growth in Darwin has been driven by values falling by almost 26% since peaking in mid-2014.  
Across the individual rest of state regions, growth has been strongest in regional NSW (185.6%) and weakest in regional WA (77.5%).  Darwin and regional WA were the only two major regions of the country where values have not doubled over the past 20 years. Within the past 20 years there have been many housing cycles so the following graphs will show how each region has seen values change over the 20 years within five year increments. The five years to January 2004 was the strongest five-year period for value growth over the past 20 years, with national dwelling values increasing by 80.2%.  Over the period, the total growth in values across the combined capital cities (79.6%) and the combined regional markets (82.0%) was remarkably similar.  In fact, it was also the only five-year period in which value growth was stronger in regional markets than in capital cities.
<a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/003%205%20years%20change%20in%20dwelling%20vales_0.jpg" target="_blank">Click</a> to enlarge.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/003%205%20years%20change%20in%20dwelling%20vales_0.jpg" alt="003 5 years change in dwelling vales.jpg" width="1088" height="579" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="55120ca7-ddde-48d9-a9d7-54abca62c8ae" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="">
 Over the five years to January 2004, capital city value growth was greatest within Canberra (110.9%) and weakest within Darwin (-3.9%). While values in Darwin fell, the next weakest growth in capital city values was Perth (63.5%).  Across the regional markets, values saw little growth over the five years in regional WA (24.4%) and regional NT (28.9%) while elsewhere value growth was quite strong with values doubling in regional NSW (108.8%). Following the strong value growth between 1999 and 2004, the growth in dwelling values over the five years to January 2009 was generally much more circumspect.  Over the period, national dwelling values increased by 14.9% with a 15.2% rise across the combined capital city markets and a 14.2% increase throughout the combined regional markets.  While the headline figures show little growth, it was quite a different story within different regions with some of the smaller housing markets experiencing big gains.  
<a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/004%205%20years%20change%20in%20dwelling%20vales_0.jpg" target="_blank">Click</a> to enlarge.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/004%205%20years%20change%20in%20dwelling%20vales_0.jpg" alt="004 5 years change in dwelling vales.jpg" width="1016" height="541" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="07eba968-8ad9-4b1a-ae57-dacf97b00270" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="">
 Across the individual capital cities, Perth (52.3%) and Hobart (57.1%) recorded the strongest value growth over the five years to January 2009.  Sydney was the weakest capital city market for value growth over the five years with values falling by 4.6%.  In regional markets, regional WA was booming on the back of the mining boom with values increasing by 80.9% over the five years.  Although regional NSW recorded the strongest value growth over the previous five years, it was the weakest market during this period with values falling -3.4%. The five years to January 2014 marks the period following the GFC and saw the mining boom come to an end.  Low interest rates and market stimulus saw values rise 20.3% nationally during the five years.  The growth in values over the period was almost entirely driven by the combined capital cities (25.3%) with very little value growth across he combined regional markets (4.8%).  
<a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/005%205%20years%20change%20in%20dwelling%20vales_0.jpg" target="_blank">Click</a> to enlarge
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/005%205%20years%20change%20in%20dwelling%20vales_0.jpg" alt="005 5 years change in dwelling vales.jpg" width="1041" height="554" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="25d6caea-fc23-4f56-bdc5-04cb6f5db9fd" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="">
 Across the capital cities, values growth in Sydney (36.5%) and Melbourne (32.3%) was much stronger than elsewhere with Brisbane (5.0%) experiencing the weakest growth.  In regional markets, values declined by -2.0% over the five years in regional Qld while regional NT (30.2%) experienced the greatest increase in values over the period. Over the most recent five years, national dwelling values have increased by 19.4%.  The combined capital cities index has increased by 20.6% while the combined regional market index is 14.9% higher.  
<a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/006%205%20years%20change%20in%20dwelling%20vales_0.jpg" target="_blank">Click </a>to enlarge.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/006%205%20years%20change%20in%20dwelling%20vales_0.jpg" alt="006 5 years change in dwelling vales.jpg" width="1003" height="534" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="65a12c3b-534e-469a-8054-05d3fb2a2272" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="">
 Across the individual capital cities, Perth (-15.6%) and Darwin (-24.4%) have recorded large falls while Hobart (35.1%) has experienced the strongest value growth.  In the regional markets, values have fallen in regional SA(-1.1%), regional WA (-22.6%) and regional NT (-7.3%) while regional NSW has recorded the largest value increase (28.2%). While past performance is certainly not an indicator of future performance, the data shows that over the past two decades most regions have seen some substantial increases in dwelling values.  The data also shows that over five year increments, the best regions for growth in a given five-year period are typically the weaker areas for growth over the following five years.  Given substantial growth over recent years in markets such as Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart that may provide some insight into the performance of these cities over the coming years. Of course, the housing market has a number of headwinds that have not been seen for some time.  Throughout most of the past 20 years, credit has been becoming easier to access, since late 2014 credit has increasingly become harder to access.  Furthermore, ongoing strong value growth in Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart has seen housing affordability rapidly deteriorate over recent years.  Finally, economic conditions outside of NSW and Vic have tended to be quite weak over recent years which has curtailed housing demand in these markets.
CAMERON KUSHER is a property research analyst for CoreLogic.
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The Australian capital cities that saw substantial house price gains over past two decades: Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
CoreLogic recently undertook analysis of the largest gains and biggest falls in dwelling values across 50 areas of Australia over the 12 months to November 2018.
The CoreLogic Home Value Index gathers results across the SA3 geographic level regions (Note: SA3s have populations of 30,000 to 130,000), and looks at those regions to see which achieve the largest value gains and the largest falls over the year.
The Top 50 regions for value growth over the past year was dominated by Victorian and Tasmanian regions, indicating a strong slant towards regional areas rather than capital cities.
This reflects the fact that as value growth conditions weakened nationally, the slowdown has been much more rapid across the capital city markets.
Tasmania’s South East region recorded the strongest value growth over the past year with dwelling values increasing by 16.3%.
Over the 12 months to November 2018, only 15 regions nationally have recorded double-digit value growth and 10 of the 15 were in Tasmania.
Victoria had three of the 15 and New South Wales and Queensland had one each.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/13/Top%2050%20growers.JPG" alt="">                                                                                                                  <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/13/Top%2050%20declines.JPG" alt="">
Over the 12 months to November 2018, 23 SA3 regions nationally recorded double-digit value falls, 15 of which were in NSW.
More regions have recorded double-digit falls than those that have recorded double-digit value increases this year.
Over the past 12 months, 55.7% of all SA3 regions nationally recorded value declines.
By way of value declines, over the past year, New South Wales had the lions share with 28 individual regions within the top 50 located in NSW.
Regions of Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and Northern Territory also appear on the list.
The Outback-South region of Queensland recorded the largest decline in values at - 15.6%; the only region where values have fell by more than 15% over the past year.
Geographically large, the Outback-South region includes the major towns of: Longreach, Charleville and Cunnamulla.
The outlook for the housing market is for further weaknesses.
Although the sharp falls of this year (especially in Sydney) are unlikely to continue at their pace over the next year, it would not be a surprise to see that in 12 months’ time additional SA3 regions across the nation have recorded annual value falls.
More affordable regional housing markets with healthy or improving economic and demographic conditions are expected to hold up better in terms of growth than the more expensive and weaker capital city housing markets.
CAMERON KUSHER is a property research analyst for CoreLogic.
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Bowen Basin property ranks as mainland's top 2018 price growth performer: CoreLogic 

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EXPERT OBSERVATIONS
Over the 12 months to November 2018, turnover of national housing stock was recorded at 4.6%.
Over the nine years shown on the chart it was the lowest turnover of stock and was down from 5.3% the previous year.
Turnover has been trending lower since it was recorded at 6.3% in mid-2015.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/5/Turnover%20CL%201.JPG" alt="">
CoreLogic data has revealed that the decline in housing turnover was more pronounced across the combined capital cities as opposed to regional markets.
12 months ago, capital city turnover was 5.3% compared to 4.5% over the past year and across the combined regional markets it was 5.9% a year ago compared to 5.5% over the past year.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/5/Turnover%20CL%202.JPG" alt="">
Sydney turnover over the past year was the lowest it has been over any of the past nine years due to a significant fall in property sales.
Over the past year, 4.8% of Sydney housing transacted compared to 6.0% a year earlier.
Turnover remains much greater in regional NSW however, it has also fallen over the past 12 months from 7.5% to 6.6%, the lowest it has been since mid-2016.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/5/Turnover%20CL%203.JPG" alt="">
 
As dwelling values and sales volumes fall in Melbourne, turnover has also slid to its lowest level any time over the past nine years.
Over the 12 months to November 2018, 4.2% of housing stock transacted compared to 5.3% a year earlier.
In regional Vic, turnover is actually higher this year (5.7%) than it was last year (5.6%) however, it has trended lower from 5.9% in June 2018.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/5/Turnover%20CL%204.JPG" alt="">
 
In both Brisbane and regional Qld housing turnover is trending lower however, in each region turnover was lower back in 2011 than it is currently.
Over the past 12 months, 4.5% of housing stock in Brisbane and 4.8% of housing stock in regional Qld has transacted.
By comparison, a year earlier 5.1% of housing stock in both Brisbane and regional Qld traded hands.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/5/Turnover%20CL%205.JPG" alt="">
Housing turnover in Adelaide has been steady over the past year recorded at 4.6% in both November 2017 and November 2018.
In regional SA housing turnover has actually increased over the past year from 3.8% of stock to 4.1% of stock.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/5/Turnover%20CL%206.JPG" alt="">
The share of housing stock which turns-over each year in Perth and regional WA has been very low for a number of years.
This is due to the ongoing weak economy (and housing market) which is resulting in very low sales volumes.
Over the past year, 4.0% of housing stock in Perth and 3.9% of housing stock in regional WA turned-over.
By comparison, a year ago turnover was greater in Perth (4.2%) but slightly lower in regional WA (3.8%).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/5/Turnover%20CL%207.JPG" alt="">
Dwelling values in Tasmania continue to rise however, transaction volumes (and turnover) is falling due to a lack of supply of properties listed for sale.
In Hobart, turnover was recorded at 5.4% in November 2018, down from 6.1% a year earlier.
In regional Tas, turnover was steady between November 2017 and 2018 at 6.3% however, it has fallen slightly over recent months.
 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/5/Turnover%20CL%208.JPG" alt="">
Turnover of housing stock across the NT has been low for a number of years due to very low volumes of sale.
Over the past year, 3.5% of housing stock in Darwin transacted compared to 3.6% a year earlier.
In regional NT, 4.5% of housing stock sold over the past year compared to 4.6% a year earlier.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/5/Turnover%20CL%209.JPG" alt="">
Turnover in Canberra is unchanged over the past year at 4.8%.
Although the measure is the same, turnover has fallen over recent months from 5.0% in July and August of this year.
The data shows a declining trend in housing turnover across most geographies and is being driven by a number of factors with the main factors such as affordability (particularly in Sydney and Melbourne) and the ongoing tightening of credit conditions.
While affordability and credit conditions have worsened, the volume of stock for sale has actually increased with ample stock for sale to encourage turnover but credit access is crimping turnover.
With credit conditions expected to remain tight over the coming months, the expectation is for fewer sales transactions and an ongoing fall in housing turnover.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/5/Turnover%20CL%2010.JPG" alt="">
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Housing turnover trends much lower down to fewer sales: Cameron Kusher

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sunland-group">Sunland Group</a> has officially lodged plans for its first Gold Coast apartment project since the departure of the Abedian family from the company three years ago, unveiling a new high-rise proposal for a prominent Broadbeach corner site on Old Burleigh Road.

The application was submitted by an entity directed by Tom Jamieson, stepson of longtime Sunland leader Soheil Abedian, and Riaz Rezvanipour, brother-in-law of Sahba Abedian, Soheil’s son.

Sunland acquired the 1,283 sqm site on the corner of Old Burleigh Road and Armrick Avenue for $9.5 million late last year and is now seeking approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/99-101-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">42-storey tower with 81 apartments</a>.

<img alt="First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fea2946d-90ee-4cfc-babe-2a8ad5db2cb6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers.png?VersionId=BV0fihJw31nDIQ8ozY_h3GbS8mxDyhnm" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/contreras-earl-architecture">Contreras Earl Architecture</a>, the proposed tower at 99-101 Old Burleigh Road would deliver a predominantly larger-format apartment mix aimed at the owner-occupier market. Plans include 17 two-bedroom apartments, 55 three-bedroom apartments, and nine four-bedroom residences across 35 residential levels.

The development also incorporates three basement levels, four podium parking levels, two levels of communal recreation facilities, and rooftop plant and equipment. A total of 189 car spaces are proposed, significantly exceeding the 90 spaces required under the planning scheme.

The architecture adopts a sculpted, curvilinear form, with deep wraparound balconies and integrated landscaping intended to soften the tower’s vertical expression. The planning report states the building’s “slender footprint/form provides a complimentary yet varied built form within the local streetscape” and contributes to “a varied, yet ordered skyline.”

Contreras Earl noted in its Architectural Statement that from the early stages, the project addressed a fundamental challenge: how to accommodate the required residential yield while avoiding the conventional model of a tower sitting on a rigid, fully resolved parking podium.

“The most direct response would have been to consolidate parking into a singular, flat podium and extrude a repetitive tower above,” the statement said. “While efficient, this approach would result in a consolidated built form with limited engagement with the surrounding landscape and public realm.”

Instead, the conventional podium model was “deliberately rejected”. The architects described the base of the building as “a landscaped architectural condition where structure, planting and circulation are integrated”.

“Rather than presenting a continuous built mass, the base of the building is articulated through a series of concrete planter elements that organise the podium into a fragmented system,” the statement said. “This approach reduces the perceived bulk of the lower levels while establishing a more permeable interface with the streetscape and adjacent open space.”

<img alt="Sunland" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="923fad8d-c960-4527-8fbe-975cf1ddf88d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%2010.32.03%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=pngwb0hYOIUpq9vDw6F2EsOiVuHF3DiX" />

&nbsp;

The site sits within the High Density Residential Zone and inside the City of Gold Coast’s unrestricted “HX” building height area, where the planning framework anticipates intensified residential development tied to the expanding light rail corridor. The planning report notes the area is undergoing “transition toward more intense development forms” given its proximity to Broadbeach, Surfers Paradise, and high-frequency public transport infrastructure.

Positioned directly opposite Broadbeach Park and within walking distance of Florida Gardens light rail station, the development would sit among a rapidly evolving stretch of Old Burleigh Road that has become one of the Gold Coast’s most active apartment development corridors.

The application joins a growing pipeline of luxury residential projects reshaping Broadbeach, including nearby developments by 5Point Projects, Polycell, and Graya.

The planning report argues the project contributes toward the Gold Coast’s long-term housing targets under the South East Queensland Regional Plan, which forecasts the need for more than 100,000 additional high-rise dwellings across the city by 2046.

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The Abedian family departed Sunland Group in late 2023, ending a four-decade association with the company, and subsequently established the private development firm Abedian &amp; Co. The group is currently delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/greenmount-residences-cnr-hill-street-and-marine-parade-coolangatta-qld-4225">Greenmount Residences</a> at Rainbow Bay and recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/18-mary-avenue-14-18-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">18 Mary Avenue</a> in Broadbeach.
</section>

Joel Robinson

First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach new apartment market with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans

The Minns Labor Government has established the new Bays West Delivery Authority to lead the development&nbsp;of the Bays West Precinct and Blackwattle Bay Precinct.&nbsp;

The Authority is charged with creating Sydney’s newest precinct, a thriving, connected, sustainable hub with White Bay Power Station as its cultural heart. Its vision is to build on the area’s natural, cultural and industrial history to shape a vibrant new neighbourhood.

The precinct will deliver up to 8,500 well-located homes, including a minimum of 10 per cent affordable and essential worker homes. Combine new housing with public open space, opening public access to the waterfront for the first time in more than 100 years, while retaining important deep-water facilities to support Sydney’s working harbour.

Located just minutes from the Sydney CBD and connected to a world-class metro, ferry, walking and cycling links, the Bays West precinct will rebalance housing growth towards well-serviced inner-city locations and help tackle the state’s housing crisis.

The Bays West Delivery Authority,&nbsp;an agency of the Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure, will report to the NSW Minister for Lands and Property who already has oversight of major precinct renewal projects including at Blackwattle Bay and Barangaroo.

As part of the broader Bays West transformation, the Minns Government recently announced that a proposal from Lendlease to redevelop part of the Bays West Precinct has progressed to Stage 2 of the NSW Government’s unsolicited proposals process.

<img alt="Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2ed71eb9-d8e8-4fa7-b9d1-de4531dcf2f3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%209.42.31%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=IDryFIbped9SNDg72LEN_EecvhUsOPvp" />

The Minns Labor Government has also confirmed the Bays West precinct will have a new suburb name. This will be the first major suburb built in close proximity to Sydney’s CBD in decades and will encompass the area currently being referred to as Bays West, including Glebe Island and the White Bay Power Station. Served by a new Metro station just five minutes from the CBD, it will become one of the most populous suburbs in the Inner West and one of Sydney’s premier cultural destinations.

An early works program is taking shape, which&nbsp;includes the first stages of an international design competition.&nbsp;

The aim of the Bays West&nbsp;International&nbsp;Design Competition is to&nbsp;ensure design excellence is embedded in the project from the start. The competition will deliver an&nbsp;urban framework that defines the character, ambition and long-term identity of&nbsp;this&nbsp;former industrial precinct as it transitions to a vibrant, inclusive and sustainable residential&nbsp;neighbourhood.

The competition will be led by the Bays West Delivery Authority in partnership with Government Architect NSW.&nbsp;

It will launch with an invitation for a global Expressions of Interest, before moving to an invitation-only stage that will be assessed by a panel that&nbsp;will provide advice to Cabinet who will select a winner.

Premier of NSW, Chris Minns said the establishment of the new Authority is the first step in transforming the Bays West precinct into a vibrant, livable suburb minutes from the Sydney CBD and two stops from Hunter St Station on the Metro West line.

“The Authority will deliver well-located homes close to the heart of the city and integrate the new precinct with Blackwattle Bay and the new Sydney Fish Market.

“This is a generational opportunity to build a new suburb on the city’s edge and open the harbour foreshore to the public for the first time in a century.”&nbsp;

Minister for Lands and Property Steve Kamper said the new Bays West Delivery Authority established by the Minns Government will turbocharge the development of Sydney’s newest suburb.

“The Authority is working at a record pace to deliver an international design competition, planning pathways and a financial model so that this development benefits Sydney with well-designed homes in a central location, close to public transport, jobs, entertainment and essential services.

“If we want Sydney to stay liveable and affordable, we need to be bold about using underutilised government-owned land to deliver homes for the future while making sure essential working harbour functions can be accommodated.”

Bays West Delivery Authority established to "turbocharge" Sydney’s newest suburb

Around 400 additional homes could be built at Southwark Grounds on Port Road, lifting total site capacity from 1300 to around 1700 dwellings.

A recently approved code amendment would allow apartment towers of up to 14 storeys in some areas of Renewal SA’s redevelopment of the former West End Brewery.

Renewal SA Acting Chief Executive Shane Wingard said he welcomed the code amendment, with the increase in heights and homes making a positive impact on the supply of high-quality, well-connected housing close to the city.

“By going higher across some parts of Southwark Grounds, we are adding a substantial number of very well-located homes with little impact on project delivery time or planned open space,” Mr Wingard said.

Since the project officially launched in 2025, Mr Wingard said more than 12,000 enquiries had been received about living at Southwark Grounds.

“The very strong early interest we’ve seen since homes were first released in the precinct reinforces our plans to create more housing opportunities,” he said.

The Southwark Grounds code amendment was launched in December last year, with community engagement undertaken over five weeks from January.

It proposed increasing maximum building heights from eight to 14 storeys on the eastern section of Southwark Grounds, and to 12 storeys across the remainder of the site, with minimum building heights ranging from two to four storeys.

The code amendment was implemented through an Early Commencement policy in late January, allowing developers to quickly explore the viability of increased height and housing yield while other planning processes continue.

One of the first developers delivering apartment sites have already finalised redesigns to increase the number of apartments following the code amendment.

Samaras’ development adjacent to the future Colonel Light Park is now planning to deliver 125 apartments across 11 storeys, significantly greater than original plans of around 50 apartments across four storeys.

The developer is also exploring the potential for additional affordable housing outcomes.

Most of the apartments at Southwark Grounds will be delivered within a master-planned precinct on a large parcel of land on the eastern portion of the site, covering around two-thirds of its 8.4 hectares.

Wingard said detailed precinct planning over the coming months may identify further opportunities to increase yield further that could see total apartment numbers at Southwark Grounds, exceed this number.

Affordable homes at Southwark Grounds will also see a net increase, with Renewal SA maintaining its commitment to a minimum of 20 per cent affordable housing across the development.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Civil works have begun across the site, with construction under way on the first new roads surrounding a townhouse precinct in the south‑west corner of Southwark Grounds. This includes Renewal SA’s 17 Founder’s Row homes, which are on track for completion by Christmas.

“We expect to have people living at Southwark Grounds by the end of the year, so delivering roads and public spaces for those residents is among our highest priorities.”

Construction of 40 townhouses off Anderson Street, known as West Village and being delivered by Contour, is forecast to begin in mid‑2026. Kolabb’s Anderson Lane development will follow shortly after, delivering a further 26 townhouses.

Southwark Grounds is a state government‑led urban renewal project now set to deliver around 1,700 homes over the next decade.

Homes will be supported by a supermarket, a range of retail and hospitality offerings anchored by a revitalised Walkerville Brew Tower, a childcare centre, car parking and well‑connected public spaces.

400 new homes planned for Adelaide's former West End Brewery site

Brisbane developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/cavcorp">Cavcorp</a> has lodged plans for a new mixed-use residential development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-wyandra-street-teneriffe-qld-4005">55 Wyandra Street</a>, Teneriffe, anchored by an 85-metre public laneway designed to reconnect the suburb’s riverfront with the Gasworks precinct.

The buildings, known as Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane, would replace the existing Queensland Cotton head office site with a 15-storey residential tower transitioning to eight storeys toward Helen Street. The project has been designed by Plazibat Architects and lodged as a code assessable development application for 93 apartments across a 3,401 sqm mixed-use site within the Newstead and Teneriffe Waterfront neighbourhood plan.

Central to the scheme is the transformation of an existing service easement into a publicly accessible cross-block connection linking Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the new laneway will act as both a pedestrian shortcut and a landscaped civic space between the Teneriffe Riverwalk, ferry terminal, and Gasworks precinct.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="26e7f058-b065-4de8-b13d-a2b8cb64dfcc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/bldg.png?VersionId=sELS0ZKYi361oYipUa1BIKfe_.DLZoFV" />

“The revised proposal delivers a legacy public-realm cross-block link, permanently secured for community use, transforming an existing private easement into a safe, high-quality pedestrian connection between the Teneriffe heritage riverwalk and the Gasworks–Long Island precinct,” the planning report states.

The laneway will sit beneath a large subtropical loggia integrated into the podium levels of the development. The design incorporates deep landscaping, water gardens, lobby spaces, business lounges, and ground-floor apartments to create what Cavcorp describes as a climate-responsive “urban verandah.”

The tower itself has been designed as a slender form with recessed floorplates and curved translucent corners inspired by contemporary Japanese architecture. The building height aligns with the Commercial Road precinct controls, which permit towers up to 15 storeys within proximity to Longland Street.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a8a17d40-43b6-4718-b3fd-67676fcbb485" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers%202_1.png?VersionId=i3VwDtp5AmL_8InW7w4qRbDFEpb744Jt" />

The project will comprise a mix of larger-format apartments aimed at owner-occupiers, downsizers, and families. The proposed apartment mix includes 11 loggia apartments across the lower levels, 50 four-bedroom Sky-Terrace apartments from levels three to seven, and 32 Sky-Pool Homes occupying the upper tower levels. The Sky-Pool Homes will feature private thermal plunge pools integrated into oversized balconies.

According to the application, the apartments are intended to reinterpret the scale and character of Teneriffe’s woolstore conversions and Queensland homes within a vertical residential format.

“The sky-pool homes build on Cavcorp’s previous projects and introduce a distinct apartment typology to Teneriffe, informed by both local and international precedent and responding to an identified market demand for enhanced safety, space and amenity,” the planning submission notes.

A major focus of the proposal is its five-level wellness and lifestyle offering, extending from the basement through to the rooftop.

Amenities proposed include a rooftop Swim &amp; Racquet Club with a 25-metre Olympic lap pool and tennis court, coworking spaces and libraries, golf simulators, wine storage, concierge facilities, business lounges, pet wash areas, and rooftop longevity-focused wellness spaces with spas, outdoor fitness zones, and landscaped terraces.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="944b352c-49b9-4247-a4c6-5967b4b69fda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/amenity.png?VersionId=Ed_qKjAtMwFT.5gfl3jiA9QwdWxSMsaX" />

All parking will be concealed within basement levels accessed from Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the deep-basement engineering approach allows the entire ground plane to prioritise landscaping, pedestrian movement, and active frontage rather than vehicle infrastructure.

The development continues Cavcorp’s concentration in Newstead and Teneriffe, where the Brisbane developer has delivered a number of apartment projects including Lucent, Le Bain, and Luminare, as well as the Long Island Wellness Precinct nearby. Several of those projects have received national design and architecture awards, including recognition under Brisbane’s “Buildings that Breathe” program.

Cavcorp unveils wellness-focused Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane apartment buildings

Focus Group Investments has lodged plans for a new apartment development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/64-70-hanover-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">64–70 Hanover Street</a> in Fitzroy, seeking to utilise the Victorian Government’s recently introduced Great Design Fast Track pathway to accelerate approvals for the project.

The proposal is among the latest developments to emerge through the state-led initiative, which was established to fast-track well-designed residential projects in activity centres and transport-connected inner-city locations. The pathway allows qualifying developments that meet elevated design and housing benchmarks to bypass traditional council planning timeframes and instead be assessed directly by the Department of Transport and Planning.

Designed by SJB, the development will comprise a mix of apartments above activated lower levels, with a strong focus on architectural articulation, landscaping, and communal amenity. The design response seeks to balance the industrial character of Richmond’s former warehouse precincts with a more contemporary residential form.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="abea51cc-d85b-479e-9aef-a589f3b37ca7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ground.png?VersionId=e1Kf8EyPWwyiVumtqQ4rM5S4GpOR3CCz" />

Proposed are 63 new dwellings, a wide ranging mix of studio, one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, and townhouses and duplexes. They will be spread across a part-three, part-eight storey building.

The Planning and Urban Context Report by Tract says the development is of an "exemplary architectural standard" and has been carefully crafted by SJB Architects.

"Dwellings&nbsp;will benefit from excellent access to natural light, cross-ventilation opportunities and extensive communal space," the report noted.

The architectural material highlights the project’s integration of landscaped elements and communal spaces throughout the building. The proposal also incorporates sustainability initiatives aligned with the Victorian Government’s push for higher-performing apartment developments under the fast-track program.

The Great Design Fast Track was unveiled by the Victorian Government in 2024 as part of a broader housing supply strategy aimed at accelerating the delivery of new homes. Projects assessed through the pathway must demonstrate high-quality architecture, sustainability outcomes, and housing diversity while being located close to public transport and existing infrastructure.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="afdbe834-8dc4-4a77-a943-ba07bc927348" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_11.png?VersionId=0J657j.TaChAZfp93wqJYBTqSsnREJx2" />

Focus Group, founder and led by Paul De Lutiis, is increasingly active across Melbourne’s inner suburbs, targeting well-connected urban renewal locations suited to medium and higher-density residential development. The Fitzroy proposal continues that strategy, leveraging the area’s strong transport links, established retail amenity, and proximity to the CBD.

Fitzroy has been one of the most popular spots for developers and buyers in recent years. The likes of PACE Development Group, SMA Projects, Crema Group and Chapter Group, currently selling projects in the suburb.

Cameron Kusher

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