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EXPERT OBSERVER
The CoreLogic quarterly rent review released today shows national weekly rents increased by 0.3% over the second quarter of 2019; slower than the 1.0% increase the previous quarter and level with rental growth over the June 2018 quarter.
Capital city rents were 0.1% higher over the quarter and -0.1% lower year-on-year. Regional market also saw an increase and were 0.7% higher over the quarter to be 1.9% higher over the past 12 months.
The annual change in combined capital city rents remains at record low levels (based on data which is available back to 2005) while annual growth in regional rents has remained fairly steady over the past quarter.
The report found:
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Rents increased in all capital cities except for Sydney and Darwin over the past 12months
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Brisbane and Perth were the only two capitals where the annual change in rents over the past year was superior to growth over the same period in 2018
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Gross rental yields are currently recorded at 4.14% nationally compared to 4.10% at the end of the previous quarter and 3.83% a year ago.
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Gross rental yields increased over the past quarter across all capital cities except for Sydney and Canberra while over the past year, yields have firmed across all capital cities.
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Nationally, rents were unchanged on a monthly basis in June 2019.
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Over the second quarter of 2019, national rents have increased by just 0.3%; a sluggish rate of growth and well down on the seasonally strong first quarter in which rents rose by 1.0%.
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At the end of the 2018-19 financial year, national rents were recorded at $438/week.
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Rental rates across the combined capital cities sat at $466/week and substantially higher than the $380/week across the combined regional markets
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Looking at the change in rents over the month across the capital cities, rents were lower in Sydney, Darwin and Canberra; they were unchanged in Perth and higher elsewhere.
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<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Rental%20Yeild_20190708.PNG" alt="Rental Yeild_20190708.PNG" width="610" height="214" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c1236628-e3c8-4737-9cd1-2ce69c0ce9b0" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Rental%20Yeild_20190708.PNG">
 Although rental rates in Sydney are falling, the city still remains as the most expensive city to rent a property with a median rent of $580/week. For many years Hobart has been the most affordable rental market however, the rapid growth in rents over recent years has seen it become more expensive than Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Darwin and on par with the cost of renting in Melbourne.
Overall, the rental market remains quite mixed, however, it is clear that Sydney accounts for a large share of overall renters with annual falls in Sydney leading to a fall in the combined capital city index.
Sydney and Melbourne continues to experience the impact of heightened demand from investors over recent years along with a substantial ramp-up in new housing (largely apartment) supply, much of which was purchased by investors.
Darwin rents have been falling for many years and they continue to decline. The past year has seen a change of direction for both the Brisbane and Perth rental markets, following a number of years of declines rents are now climbing again.
CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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Brisbane and Perth had standout rental growth this year: Cameron Kusher

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CoreLogic observed that over the 12 months to December 2018, the estimated residential population of Australia increased by 1.6% or by 404,783 persons; the largest increase in raw number terms since September 2017 and it was also the third consecutive quarter in which the annual population increase trended higher.
Looking at the two components of population growth at a national level (natural increase and net overseas migration) they found that net overseas migration remains the primary driver of population growth.
Over the year, natural increase was recorded 156,337 persons, the highest it has been since March 2015 and 8.5% higher than in December 2017. Net overseas migration was recorded at 248,446 persons, the highest it has been since September 2017 and 2.8% higher than the previous year.
Across the states and territories, net interstate migration is also a contributor to population growth.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/27/Pop%20growth%201.JPG" alt="">
NEW SOUTH WALES
 With an estimated population of 8,046,070 persons, the population has increased by 123,813 persons or 1.6% over the past year, which is in-line with the national rate of growth. The 123,813 person increase was the greatest since September 2017 and was made-up of natural increase of 53,711 persons, net overseas migration of 91,999 persons and a loss of 21,897 persons due to net interstate migration. Natural increase of 53,711 persons was the greatest on record while the 91,999 persons increase due to net overseas migration was the largest increase in 12 months. The loss of 21,897 residents due to net interstate migration was slightly lower than the previous quarter but up from 19,299 persons a year earlier.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/27/Pop%20growth%202.JPG" alt="">
VICTORIA
The estimated population increased by 2.2% over the 2018 calendar year taking it to 6,526,413 persons with an increase of 139,430 persons over the past year. The 139,430 person population increase consisted of natural increase of 40,256 persons, net overseas migration of 85,965 persons and net interstate migration of 13,209 persons. Although the population continues to increase rapidly, both net overseas and net interstate migration are lower than they were a year ago and natural increase is higher than a year ago but lower than the previous quarter.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/27/Pop%20growth%203.JPG" alt="">
QUEENSLAND
The estimated population increased by 89,905 persons, or 1.8%, throughout 2018 taking the estimated population to 5,052,827 persons. The 1.8% annual increase in population was the largest since June 2013 and consisted of increases of 31,070 persons due to natural increase, 35,039 persons due to net overseas migration and 23,796 due to net interstate migration. Natural increase was the greatest it has been since March 2017, net overseas migration was the greatest since September 2013 while net interstate migration is the highest of any state it has slowed for two consecutive quarters and is the lowest since December 2017. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/27/Pop%20growth%204.JPG" alt="">
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
With an estimated 1,742,744 residents, the population increased by 0.8% or 14,585 persons throughout 2018. The 14,585 person increase included natural increase of 5,490 persons, net overseas migration of 13,319 persons and a loss of 4,224 persons due to net interstate migration. Natural increase was the greatest it has been since June 2017, net overseas migration was the greatest it has been since June 2010 and the outflow of residents to other state and territories was the slowest it has been since March 2015.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/27/Pop%20growth%205.JPG" alt="">
West Australia
Over the 2018 calendar year the estimated population increased by 23,961 persons or 0.9% to take the total population estimate to 2,606,338 persons. The 23,961 person increase over the year is well down on the peak of the mining boom when WA added 73,922 in 2008. The 23,961 person increase over the past year was made-up of natural increase of 18,601 persons, net overseas migration of 14,863 persons and a loss from net interstate migration of 9,503 persons. Natural increase was the lowest it has been since September 2009, net overseas migration was the highest it has been since December 2014 and the loss of residents to other states and territories was the smallest since March 2016.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/27/Pop%20growth%206.JPG" alt="">
Tasmania
The population increased by 1.2% over the past year or 6,499 persons which was the largest annual increase in population since September 1990, taking the estimated population to 531,529 persons. Natural increase was recorded at 1,260 persons, the greatest it has been since December 2016. Net overseas migration was recorded at 2,717 persons, the greatest it has been since September 2017. Net interstate migration was recorded at 2,522 persons, the greatest it has been since June 2004.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/27/Pop%20growth%207.JPG" alt="">
Northern Territory
As at December 2018 the estimated population was 245,854 persons which was actually a reduction in population of 1,010 persons over the past year. While natural increase was recorded at 2,680 persons and net overseas migration at 526 persons. NT lost 4,216 residents due to net interstate migration causing the overall population to fall. Natural increase was the smallest since December 2005, net overseas migration was the smallest since September 2003 and the loss of residents due to net interstate migration was the largest on record. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/27/Pop%20growth%208.JPG" alt="">
Australian Capital Territory
The population increased by 1.8% or 7,574 persons throughout 2018 taking the estimated resident population to 423,811 persons. Over the year, natural increase was recorded at 3,247 persons, net overseas migration of 4,014 persons and net interstate migration of 313 persons. Natural increase was the lowest it has been since September 2009, net overseas migration was the lowest it has been since December 2016.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/27/Pop%20growth%208.JPG" alt="">
The data shows that the national population is still growing at a rapid rate despite recent moves to lower permanent migration. The population of NSW and Vic continues to grow by the greatest amount. Population increase in NSW is primarily driven by natural increase and net overseas migration, accounting for 37.0% of national net overseas migration. Vic has seen 34.6% on net overseas migration nationally over the past year and has also recorded the second highest rate of net interstate migration (behind Qld). Vic, Qld, Tas and ACT are seeing a positive rate of net interstate migration as more people arrive from interstate than leave. Over the coming quarters it is expected that similar trends will continue with strong population increases in NSW and Vic driven by overseas migration and strong rates of net interstate migration for Vic and Qld. Of course population growth, particularly migration, is a proxy for housing demand. High levels of migration mean increased demand for housing which is a factor that should assist in putting a floor under the recent declines in dwelling values (particularly in Sydney and Melbourne). Furthermore, increasing populations should also assist in the absorption of the large volume of apartments under construction in Sydney and Melbourne.
CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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Australia's population grew over 400,000 in 2018: CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
This column is going to be a little controversial however, lenders are well within their rights keep a portion of future rate cuts up their sleeve.
Furthermore, the fact that banks have to consider mortgage holders as well as savers is an important consideration.
It is true that Australians are obsessed with housing.
In no way is this better reflected by the fact that interest rate cuts are cheered because they lead to cheaper interest cost on our mortgages and interest rate rises are jeered because our repayments increase. This is notwithstanding the fact that lower interest rates typically reflect a slowing economy with low inflation and low wages growth that requires more stimulus.
On the other side, higher interest rates typically reflect stronger inflation, stronger wage growth and an economy that is overall too strong.
Looking at data from the Reserve Bank to April 2019 shows that the value of deposits with authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) was recorded at $1.584 trillion.
By comparison, the total value of outstanding mortgages was recorded at $1.825 billion. The value of outstanding housing credit is larger than the value of deposits however, bank deposits account for 86.8% of the value of outstanding housing credit.
Since this long interest rate cutting cycle began in November 2011, the cash rate has dropped from 4.75% to 1.5% in May 2019 with an additional 25 basis points of interest rate cuts delivered this month, taking the cash rate to 1.25%. Between October 2011 and May 2019, an owner occupier with a principal and interest mortgage has, on average, seen their mortgage interest rate reduce by 218 basis points.
Over the current interest rate cutting cycle, mortgage interest rates to owner occupiers have reduced by 218 basis points however, the drop in savings and term deposit rates has been much greater.
As an example the fall in some of the rates are detailed below (based on averages published by the RBA):
1. Rates for banks bonus savings accounts with at least $10,000 have fallen 330 basis points to 2.15%
2. Rates for online savings accounts with at least $10,000 have fallen 400 basis points to 0.85%
3. Rates for cash management accounts at banks with deposits of at least $10,000 have fallen 320 basis points to 0.45%
4.Rates for three month term deposit rates with at least $10,000 have fallen 320 basis points to 1.85%
5. Rates for three year term deposit rates with at least $10,000 have fallen 330 basis points to 2.3%
As this data shows, while on average the benefit of the reduction in mortgage interest rates to owner occupier borrowers has been 218 basis points, the reduction in interest rates for savers has been significantly larger. Mortgages are a generally large and significant debt, so many view the drop in mortgage interest rates as more beneficial, especially with the increased use of mortgage offset accounts over recent years.
However, with official interest rates as low as they are currently and savers having experienced much greater interest reductions than mortgage holders, it could be argued there is currently little benefit in saving.
While that may potentially be good for the economy (more spending) and lower interest rates are certainly perceived as good for mortgage holders, there is a fairly large proportion of the population that rely on savings as well as those that have little or no mortgage debt.
Another factor to consider is that the major banks, which account for the majority of mortgage lending in the country, remain heavily reliant on domestic deposits to fund their mortgage lending. The latest data available shows that around two thirds of major banks non-equity funding comes from domestic deposits.
Very low interest rates discourage saving and over time could lead to a drop in domestic deposits and an increase in the requirement for lenders to increase their reliance on other sources of funding (such as offshore).
Listed lenders also have a responsibility to their shareholders. Very low mortgage rates have the potential to further depress net interest margins.
This increases the likelihood that future cuts to the cash rate may not be passed on in full and likely explains why the reduction to deposit rates have to-date been larger than the cuts to mortgage interest rates.
As always when interest rates are changed there are winners and losers.
For the most part the focus is on the benefit of lower interest rates for mortgage holders what is often forgotten in the conversation, and has been throughout the current rate cutting cycle, is how much lower interest rates hurt savers and disincentive saving.
Given cuts to interest rates for savers have been much greater than cuts to interest rates for mortgage holders and savers are not that much of a smaller cohort than mortgage holders it is reasonable for lenders to have greater consideration of the impact of the current ultra-low interest rates on this segment of the market.
CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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The case for not passing on RBA cash rate cuts to home loan mortgage rates: CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
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The latest data from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) on property exposures data from authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) shows that the tougher lending policies of recent years continue to reduce mortgage risks. 
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Over the March 2019 quarter, APRA reports that there was $72.395 billion in residential mortgages to households, which was -17.9% lower than the previous quarter and down -16.5% on the March 2018 quarter. 
As the chart shows the value of lending to investors and owner-occupiers is falling. 
Over the quarter the value of lending to owner-occupiers was -17.6% lower and it was down -15.2% year-on-year. Lending to investors was -18.7% lower over the quarter and -19.6% lower year-on-year. 
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The heightened level of interest-only lending has been seen as a key risk in the market and new interest- only lending has fallen over the quarter both on a value and share of total basis. 
Over the quarter there was $10.785 billion in interest-only lending which was the lowest on record. 
As a share of total lending, interest-only was also at a record low of 14.9% which is a far cry from its peak at 45.6% in June 2015. 
As a proportion of the total portfolio of outstanding loans, interest-only now accounts for a record low 23.3% which is down from a peak of 39.5% in June and September 2015.
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Interest-only lending isn’t the only area in which there has been a reduction riskier lending. The value of low documentation loans, other non-standard loans and loans approved outside of serviceability all fell over the quarter in terms of both value and their share of total lending. 
In fact at 0.1% of total lending over the quarter, both other non-standard loans and low documentation loans were at an historic low share of mortgages while the 4.3% of loans that were approved outside of serviceability was the lowest share since December 2017.
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While most areas of riskier lending recorded a reduction over the quarter, there was a slight increase in the share of new mortgages written with a loan to value ratio (LVR) of more than 80%. Over the quarter there was $15.772 billion worth of new mortgages with an LVR of more than 80%. 
Although that was the lowest value on record, that is more a function of reduced overall demand for mortgages. The share of mortgages with an LVR in excess of 80% was recorded at 21.8% over the quarter which was its highest share since March 2017. The share of higher LVR loans is still well below its peak of 37.6% in March 2009 and most new borrowers have more than 20% equity in the property they are purchasing. 
Nevertheless, it is a little surprising that given the current tight credit conditions and falling dwelling values that there is an increased willingness to lend to borrowers with less than a 20% deposit. 
Overall, the data reflects the ongoing improvements in mortgage quality and the shift towards reducing the build-up of risk in the mortgage market. We would expect the current conditions to continue over the next quarter. Thereafter it will be interesting to see what happens given that there has been an interest rate cut and it looks as if APRA will be relaxing some of the serviceability limits in place on mortgages. 
On the other side of things, comprehensive credit reporting is being implemented which is likely to mean even more scrutiny on borrowers debts and subsequently increased pressure on lenders to write high quality mortgages. 
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CAMERON KUSHER  is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
 
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Lenders continue to reduce the risks in their mortgage books

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EXPERT OBSERVER
National dwelling values are currently -8.2% lower than their peak, the largest decline in values any time over the past 30 years. 
Throughout the period from May 1989 to May 2019, national dwelling values have been at an historic high for 56.8% of that time.
There is a significant difference in the figures throughout the capital cities and rest of state regions.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/corelogic%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/corelogic%201.jpg" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic
In fact, the national figures are at historic highs for a greater share of time than any of the individual regions have been.
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As at May 2019, dwelling values across the combined capital cities have fallen by -10.1% from their September 2017 peak. The -10.1% fall is the deepest correction throughout any period since May 1989. Since May 1989, the combined capital city index has been at an historic high for 51.0% of the months.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/corelogic%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/corelogic%202.jpg" alt="">
 
Source: CoreLogic
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The combined regional market index has seen a more moderate decline than the capital cities with values currently -3.0% lower than their peak. Over the 30 years since May 1989, the combined regional market index has been recorded at a peak for just over half of the months (51.2%).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/corelogic%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/corelogic%203.jpg" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic
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Between May 1989 and May 2019, Sydney dwelling values have sat at historic highs for 44.9% of the time. The current downturn in Sydney is the deepest of any over that period with values currently -14.9% lower than their peak. The current downturn is plotting unchartered territory with prior downturns generally shorter and not particularly deep.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20sydney%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20sydney%20.jpg" alt="">
 
Source: CoreLogic
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Regional NSW dwelling values, as at May 2019, were -4.9% lower than their peak. The last time they were further away from their peak was January 2013. Over the 30 years from May 1989, regional NSW dwelling values have been recorded at historic highs for only 38.2% of the time. As the chart shows, there have been fairly regular periods in which values have fallen across the region.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20regional%20nsw.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20regional%20nsw.jpg" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic
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Melbourne dwelling values are currently -11.1% lower than their previous peak which is their deepest correction any time since 1980. While the city has seen a number of corrections since May 1989, they have generally been shallow with a quick recovery, the exception was the 1989 downturn where dwelling values didn’t recover until 1997. Over the past 30 years, values have been at an historic high for 44.9% of the time.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20mel%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20mel%20.jpg" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic
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Over the past 30 years, dwelling values in regional Vic have been at historic highs for 47.4% of the time. Dwelling values are currently -1.1% lower than their previous peak with the falls occurring over recent months. Interestingly, values have been at historic highs over the past 30 years more regularly than those in Melbourne.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20regional%20vic.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20regional%20vic.jpg" alt="">
 
Source: CoreLogic
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Brisbane dwelling values are currently -2.4% lower than their April 2019 peak. The correction to-date is fairly moderate compared to the other downturns experienced over the past 30 years. Over the 30 year period, dwelling values have been recorded at their peak for 49.3% of months.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20brisbane.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
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Source: CoreLogic
Dwelling values in regional Qld have spent only 40.4% of their time at historic highs over the past 30 years. Although values have been at their peak fairly rarely, it is largely due to two corrections between 1994 and 1999 and the current correction which has been ongoing since 2008. Although values recorded a peak to trough fall of -12.6% by October 2012, values are yet to return to their 2008 peak and remain -5.3% lower as at May 2019.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20regional%20qld%20.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20regional%20qld%20.jpg" alt="">
 
Source: CoreLogic
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Adelaide dwelling values have begun falling over recent months and as at May 2019 they were slightly below their previous peak(-0.5%). Over the past 25years,dwelling values in Adelaide have been at historic highs for 53.8% of the time. Adelaide has seen some downturns over the past 25 years however, they have typically been fairly shallow and not taken particularly long to recover.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20adelaide.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/20/corelogic%20adelaide.jpg" alt="">
 
Source: CoreLogic
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In regional SA dwelling value have been below their previous peak since April 2015 and are currently -3.0% lower. The regional SA market has seen lots of short periods of value falls over the past 25 years resulting in values being at historic highs for just 32.2% of the time.
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Source: CoreLogic
Over the past 30 years, dwelling values have been at their peak for 38.5% of the time. The current decline is the deepest of any over the past 30 years, -19.2% lower. There have been a number of corrections over this timeframe however, they have mostly been quite small. The current downturn is showing no signs of ending as yet and has been ongoing since the middle of 2014.
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Source: CoreLogic
The current housing downturn in regional WA has seen values fall by -32.5% from their peak in January 2008 (more than a decade ago). There is no evidence as yet that the declines are ending. As a result of the ongoing declining values, regional WA values have only been at historic highs for 32.1% of the time over the past three decades.
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Source: CoreLogic
Following strong growth in values over recent years, Hobart dwelling values have fallen by a cumulative -1.3% over the past two months. Throughout the past 30 years, Hobart dwelling values have been at an historic high for just 37.7% of the time. There have been many small downturns over the period and two quite large ones which ran for a number of years despite peak to trough falls during these downturns being less than 10%.
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Source: CoreLogic
Regional Tas is the only major region of the country in which values are currently at their historic high. Until the past few years there had been an ongoing deep correction in values occurring. Over the past three decades, values have been at historic highs 35.7% of the time.
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Source: CoreLogic
Darwin dwelling values last peaked in 2014 and they are currently 29.5% lower than this peak. This is the largest and deepest correction seen in Darwin although there isn’t a  particularly long data history. Over the past 18 years, values have been at record highs for just 25.3% of the time.
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Source: CoreLogic
Values in regional NT are volatile due to few properties, as a result values have been at a peak just 28.6% of the time over the past 18 years. Regional NT values last peaked in 2010 and they are currently -8.1% lower.
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Source: CoreLogic
Dwelling values in Canberra are currently slightly lower than their peak after a decline of -0.2% in May 2019. Over the past 25 years, dwelling values in Canberra have been at historic highs 38.2% of the time. Over the period there have been four major downturns with the 1994 downturn running until 1999 and the 2010 downturn running until 2015. The other two downturns were reasonably short and sharp.
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Source: CoreLogic
The results may well be viewed as somewhat surprising. 
In that, there is a sense that property values seem to be rising more often than not yet across the individual regions the majority have seen values below their previous peak more often than not.
When downturns have occurred they are often small andvalues return to previous peaks fairly quickly. The current downturn for a number of regions is unprecedented in terms of the magnitude and length of declines. Given this it could be a number of years after values begin to recover until they returnto their previous highs.
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CAMERON KUSHER  is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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How often have values been at their peak? Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The CoreLogic Stratified Hedonic Index highlights the performance of the housing market across three segments. These three segments are: the 25% of most affordable dwellings, the 50% of dwellings representing the middle market and the 25% of most expensive dwellings. The analysis within this report is measuring the six month annualised change in dwelling values.
Nationally, from the market peak to the end of May 2019, the most affordable quarter has seen values fall by -1.4%, the middle of the market has seen values fall -6.6% and the top quarter has fallen by -11.6%. The -1.4% fall across the lower quartile is the largest since Sep-18, the -6.6% fall across the middle of the marketis slightly down on the previous month while the -11.6% fall across the top quartile is the second consecutive month in which falls have slowed and the smallest annual decline since Dec-18.
<ul>
<li>
Combined capital cities </li>
</ul>
Low quartile values are -5.1% lower over the year, middle market values have fallen -8.3% and top quartile is -12.4% lower. The -5.1% fall is the largest since September 2008 and the -12.4% fall is the smallest since December 2018.
<ul>
<li>
Combined regional markets </li>
</ul>
Values across the most affordable quarter of properties are -1.2% lower compared to a -1.6% fall across the middle of the market and a 6.7% fall across the top quartile (the largest fall since January 2012).
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/National20190617.PNG" alt="National20190617.PNG" width="713" height="237" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0bfdb83b-f326-4cbf-b15b-6c64474a89cb" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/National20190617.PNG">
 
<ul>
<li>
Sydney </li>
</ul>
The low quartile has recorded a value fall of -2.0% (smallest fall since Oct-18) compared to -11.9% across the middle of the market (smallest fall since Jan-19) and -12.5% across the top quartile (smallest fall since Nov-18).
<ul>
<li>
Regional NSW </li>
</ul>
Values across the most affordable quarter of properties are 0.6% lower (slowest growth since Nov-18), the middle of the market has recorded falls of -4.6% and the top quartile has recorded falls of -9.0%.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/NSW20190617.PNG" alt="NSW20190617.PNG" width="734" height="244" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b39ee5af-7567-4a32-a842-77ce9fd854d0" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/NSW20190617.PNG">
 
<ul>
<li>
Melbourne </li>
</ul>
The -13.8% fall across the most expensive quarter of dwellings is the smallest since Nov-18 while the middle of the market has seen values fall -10.1% (smallest fall since Jan-19) and the most affordable quarter has recorded a value fall of -0.9% (smallest fall since Dec-18).
<ul>
<li>Regional Vic </li>
</ul>
The most affordable quarter of properties have increased in value by 0.8% while the middle of the market has increased by 1.2% (slowest rate of growth since Sep-16) and the top quartile has fallen by -6.4% (the largest fall since Feb-12).
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/VIC20190617.PNG" alt="VIC20190617.PNG" width="743" height="247" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="46974346-63a4-4781-aa20-b5807fc89b10" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/VIC20190617.PNG">
 
<ul>
<li>
Brisbane </li>
</ul>
Values have fallen by -0.7% across the most affordable quarter of dwellings compared to a -3.3% fall across the middle of the market (largest fall since Feb-12) and a -6.2% fall across the most expensive quarter of properties (largest fall since Jan-12).
<ul>
<li>
Regional Qld </li>
</ul>
The most expensive quarter of dwellings fell -3.5% compared to a 0.7% fall across the middle of the market and a -0.3% fall across the most affordable quarter of the market.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/QLD.PNG" alt="QLD.PNG" width="763" height="251" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="699037bf-9816-488d-afb6-75030cf5eed7" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/QLD.PNG">
 
<ul>
<li>
Adelaide </li>
</ul>
The most affordable quarter of dwellings have recorded growth of 0.9% (strongest growth since May-18) while the middle of the market has recorded a 0.3% increase and the top quarter of properties have recorded a fall of -2.7%, their largest fall since Jan-13.
<ul>
<li>
Regional SA </li>
</ul>
The most affordable quarter of properties have increased by 0.3% over the past year (the strongest growth since Aug-18) compared to a 3.7% increase across the middle of the market and a 0.6% increase across the most affordable quarter of properties.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/SA20190617.PNG" alt="SA20190617.PNG" width="718" height="239" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3f9d5da2-f1aa-45c7-80e9-b777ec1635bd" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/SA20190617.PNG">
 
<ul>
<li>
Perth </li>
</ul>
Values across the most affordable quarter of properties are -2.4% lower over the year compared to an -8.9% fall across the middle of the market and an -11.6% fall across the most expensive quarter of properties.
<ul>
<li>
Regional WA </li>
</ul>
The most affordable quarter of the market recorded a decline in values of -1.8% compared to -7.5% across the middle of the market and a -13.1% fall across the most expensive quarter, the largest fall since Jan-15.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/WA20190617.PNG" alt="WA20190617.PNG" width="737" height="245" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="476168d8-b9aa-4c98-be7a-b3bacd3e5834" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/WA20190617.PNG">
 
<ul>
<li>
Hobart </li>
</ul>
The most affordable quarter of properties recorded a value increase of 4.6% over the year (the slowest rate of growth since Jun-16) compared to a 0.6% increase across the middle of the market (slowest growth since Jun-16) and a -0.5% fall across the most expensive properties (largest fall since Feb-15).
<ul>
<li>
Regional Tas </li>
</ul>
The most affordable quarter of properties recorded an 8.8% annual increase (strongest growth since Nov-18) while the middle of the market recorded growth of 3.8% and the most expensive quarter recorded 3.0% growth over the year.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/TAS20190617.PNG" alt="TAS20190617.PNG" width="781" height="260" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="991bb60c-c24a-4e5b-9a3e-9e22a1c2764d" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/TAS20190617.PNG">
 
<ul>
<li>
Darwin </li>
</ul>
The most expensive quarter of properties across the city have fallen in value by -16.8% over the past year (largest fall since May-16) compared to a -17.0% fall across the middle of the market (largest fall on record) and a -14.6% fall across the most affordable quarter of the market (largest fall since Nov-18).
<ul>
<li>
Regional NT </li>
</ul>
The most affordable quarter of properties have recorded an increase of 11.3% over the past year, their largest increase since Apr-17 while the middle of the market has seen values rise 1.9% and the most expensive quarter of properties have fallen by -0.2%.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/NT20190617.PNG" alt="NT20190617.PNG" width="786" height="261" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="69900538-8b47-43d2-82e5-390f94ceacb6" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/NT20190617.PNG">
 
<ul>
<li>
Canberra </li>
</ul>
The most expensive quarter of properties have recorded no change in value over the past year while the middle of the market has recorded growth of 0.7% (slowest growth since Aug-16) and the most affordable quarter has recorded value growth of 1.3% (slowest growth since Jun-16).
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Canberra20190617.PNG" alt="Canberra20190617.PNG" width="750" height="256" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="11bca82d-0807-4bca-bb2e-38b729584b6e" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Canberra20190617.PNG">
 
Over the past year, most capital cities and regional markets have been recording value declines. While values are broadly continuing to fall, the rate of these falls on a monthly basis has been slowing. After having seen much larger corrections than the other two segments (following a larger growth phase), the most expensive segment of the market is seeing its rate of decline slow.
This is a trend that has played out before whereby premium housing values fall the fastest initially but also sees the falls cease earlier than other market segments. It is still early days but with the housing market expected to trough in late 2019, the premium housing sector may find a floor first and start to show some level of recovery before the other segments.
CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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Value declines on most expensive properties are slowing: Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
In the lead-up to the recent Federal election the Coalition announced the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme.
The scheme will provide up to 10,000 loans to first home buyers each year and will offer first home buyers better access to finance without having to save a 20% deposit.
Additional details about the plan include: The Scheme will be available to eligible first home buyers who have been able to save for a deposit of at least 5% up to 20%. This will mean that eligible first home owners will be able to purchase their own home years earlier than they would normally be able to do.
Also, they would not be required to purchase lenders mortgage insurance saving them approximately $10,000. The lender would still undertake the full normal credit check process on the borrower (meeting all their legal obligations) to ensure that the borrower is in a position to be able to afford the repayments.
If the borrower refinances or the loan comes to an end the Commonwealth support will terminate. The Scheme will support low and middle income earners across Australia. Support would only be available to first home buyers below a certain capped income level which is $125,000, or $200,000 combined income for a couple who are both first home buyers.
The income test would be based on the previous year’s taxable income to provide certainty. Support will also be targeted to entry properties, with a maximum loan size determined on a regional basis, reflecting the different property markets across Australia.
The first home buyer will be able to use the Scheme in conjunction with the First Home Buyer Super Savers Scheme (FHSSS) and State or Territory first home buyer grants and duty concessions. The Scheme will commence on 1 January 2020 and will be operated by National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation (NHFIC).
Support for borrowers could include guaranteeing approved applicants the additional loan amount taken out by the first home buyer to cover the difference between the amount of the first home buyer's deposit and 20 per cent of the value of the property. While there aren’t a whole lot of details about the plan there are some important things to consider with this plan.
1. Over the past 10 years there has been an average of 103,485 first home buyer finance commitments per annum. Given this, only around 10% of first home buyers will be able to access this scheme. 2. A 20% deposit is not actually required to take out a mortgage. Buyers can borrow with less than a 20% deposit. If they choose to do so, LMI is either an additional upfront cost or amortised into the mortgage amount. LMI is not transferable so if you choose to refinance or sell and purchase but still have less than 20% equity, LMI will be payable again. 3. The borrower will still need to pass normal credit checks. Over the past four years or so it has become increasingly more difficult to access a mortgage and borrowers participating in this scheme will still need to pass the normal credit checks. Given this, the scheme, as proposed, is not going to result in anyone that currently can’t access a mortgage to take out a mortgage. What it will mean is that people that already qualify for a mortgage can potentially avoid LMI and they can also purchase with a smaller deposit.
The scheme is positive in that it allows first home buyers to borrow with a smaller deposit and without LMI. The benefit of this is they can potentially own a home earlier. From a housing affordability perspective it is difficult to see how this policy actually helps.
Given that borrowers still need to pass usual credit checks, the only people that will have access to the scheme are those that could already purchase any way. While the scheme will help borrowers enter the market earlier, it seems unlikely that it will do anything to improve housing affordability.
If anything, it might increase demand from first home buyers and lead to higher prices within the price points that fit with maximum loan sizes which have not yet been determined.
Some more strategic alternatives to improve housing affordability can be found on the supply side via town planning reforms to allow for higher densities in high demand areas, improving accessibility to affordable housing markets via infrastructure upgrades and re-thinking inefficient taxation transactional taxes such as stamp duty.
CAMERON KUSHER  is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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Will the government’s first home loan deposit scheme really help FHB's? Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Nationally, from the market peak to the end of May ’19, the most affordable quarter has seen values fall by -1.4%, the middle of the market has seen values fall -6.6% and the top quarter has fallen by -11.6%.
The -1.4% fall across the lower quartile is the largest since Sep-18, the -6.6% fall across the middle of the market is slightly down on the previous month while the -11.6% fall across the top quartile is the second consecutive month in which falls have slowed and the smallest annual decline since Dec-18.
Combined capital cities
Low quartile values are -5.1% lower over the year, middle market values have fallen -8.3% and top quartile is -12.4% lower. The -5.1% fall is the largest since September 2008 and the -12.4% fall is the smallest since December 2018.
Combined regional markets
Values across the most affordable quarter of properties are -1.2% lower compared to a -1.6% fall across the middle of the market and a 6.7% fall across the top quartile (the largest fall since January 2012).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/13/Declining%20Values%201.JPG" alt="">
Sydney
The low quartile has recorded a value fall of -2.0% (smallest fall since Oct-18) compared to -11.9% across the middle of the market (smallest fall since Jan-19) and -12.5% across the top quartile (smallest fall since Nov-18).
Regional NSW Values across the most affordable quarter of properties are 0.6% lower (slowest growth since Nov-18), the middle of the market has recorded falls of -4.6% and the top quartile has recorded falls of -9.0%.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/13/Declining%20Values%202.JPG" alt="">
Melbourne
The -13.8% fall across the most expensive quarter of dwellings is the smallest since Nov-18 while the middle of the market has seen values fall -10.1% (smallest fall since Jan-19) and the most affordable quarter has recorded a value fall of -0.9% (smallest fall since Dec-18).
Regional Vic
The most affordable quarter of properties have increased in value by 0.8% while the middle of the market has increased by 1.2% (slowest rate of growth since Sep-16) and the top quartile has fallen by -6.4% (the largest fall since Feb12).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/13/Declining%20Values%203.JPG" alt="">
Brisbane
Values have fallen by -0.7% across the most affordable quarter of dwellings compared to a -3.3% fall across the middle of the market (largest fall since Feb-12) and a -6.2% fall across the most expensive quarter of properties (largest fall since Jan-12).
Regional Qld
The most expensive quarter of dwellings fell - 3.5% compared to a 0.7% fall across the middle of the market and a -0.3% fall across the most affordable quarter of the market.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/13/Declining%20Values%204.JPG" alt="">
Adelaide
The most affordable quarter of dwellings have recorded growth of 0.9% (strongest growth since May-18) while the middle of the market has recorded a 0.3% increase and the top quarter of properties have recorded a fall of -2.7%, their largest fall since Jan-13.
Regional SA
The most affordable quarter of properties have increased by 0.3% over the past year (the strongest growth since Aug-18) compared to a 3.7% increase across the middle of the market and a 0.6% increase across the most affordable quarter of properties.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/13/Declining%20Values%205.JPG" alt="">
Perth
Values across the most affordable quarter of properties are -2.4% lower over the year compared to an -8.9% fall across the middle of the market and an -11.6% fall across the most expensive quarter of properties.
Regional WA
The most affordable quarter of the market recorded a decline in values of -1.8% compared to -7.5% across the middle of the market and a -13.1% fall across the most expensive quarter, the largest fall since Jan-15.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/13/Declining%20Values%206.JPG" alt="">
Hobart
The most affordable quarter of properties recorded a value increase of 4.6% over the year (the slowest rate of growth since Jun-16) compared to a 0.6% increase across the middle of the market (slowest growth since Jun-16) and a -0.5% fall across the most expensive properties (largest fall since Feb-15).
Regional Tas
The most affordable quarter of properties recorded an 8.8% annual increase (strongest growth since Nov-18) while the middle of the market recorded growth of 3.8% and the most expensive quarter recorded 3.0% growth over the year.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/13/Declining%20Values%207.JPG" alt="">
Darwin
The most expensive quarter of properties across the city have fallen in value by -16.8% over the past year (largest fall since May-16) compared to a -17.0% fall across the middle of the market (largest fall on record) and a -14.6% fall across the most affordable quarter of the market (largest fall since Nov-18).
Regional NT The most affordable quarter of properties have recorded an increase of 11.3% over the past year, their largest increase since Apr-17 while the middle of the market has seen values rise 1.9% and the most expensive quarter of properties have fallen by -0.2%.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/13/Declining%20Values%208.JPG" alt="">
Canberra
The most expensive quarter of properties have recorded no change in value over the past year while the middle of the market has recorded growth of 0.7% (slowest growth since Aug-16) and the most affordable quarter has recorded value growth of 1.3% (slowest growth since Jun-16).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/13/Declining%20Values%209.JPG" alt="">
Over the past year, most capital cities and regional markets have been recording value declines. While values are broadly continuing to fall, the rate of these falls on a monthly basis has been slowing.
After having seen much larger corrections than the other two segments (following a larger growth phase), the most expensive segment of the market is seeing its rate of decline slow.
This is a trend that has played out before whereby premium housing values fall the fastest initially but also sees the falls cease earlier than other market segments.
It is still early days but with the housing market expected to trough in late 2019, the premium housing sector may find a floor first and start to show some level of recovery before the other segments.
CAMERON KUSHER  is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/taxonomy/corelogic-people/cameron-kusher" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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Rate of value decline on the most expensive properties slowing: Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
SA3 regions are part of the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS). An SA3 region provides a more granular look at the performance of housing markets given that these areas generally have a population of between 30,000 and 130,000 people and in regional areas they represent the area serviced by regional cities that have a population over 20,000 people.
Of the 148 regional SA3 areas, 62 of them have recorded an increase in dwelling values or no change over the year to April 2019. Four of the five regions with the greatest increase in values over the past year were in Tasmania with Huon-Bruny Island recording the fastest rate of growth (16.7%). Huon-Bruny Island along with North East Tasmania (11.5%) and Devonport (10.3%) were the only regions in which values increased at a double-digit rate over the year.
Regional SA3 areas, annual change and change from peak
Click <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Regional%20SA3%20annual%20change%20and%20change%20from%20peak_1.PNG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Regional%20SA3%20annual%20change%20and%20change%20from%20peak_1.PNG" alt="Regional SA3 annual change and change from peak_1.PNG" width="528" height="555" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="12da801f-9ee1-4755-b04f-19148b9be58c" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Regional%20SA3%20annual%20change%20and%20change%20from%20peak_1.PNG">
 
Despite the headlines of weak capital city housing markets, the regional areas have generally fared much better in terms of value growth. Furthermore, 48 of the 62 regions have recorded increases in values despite values sitting below their previous peak. This points to a number of regions that have seen housing corrections starting to recover. Some examples of areas which have seen values increase over the year despite significant corrections include:
<ul>
<li>West Pilbara (WA) – values have risen 6.6% over the year however, they remain -57.6% below their peak.</li>
<li>Bowen Basin-North (Qld) – values have increased 8.5% over the year but remain -43.6% lower than their peak</li>
<li>Central Highlands (Qld) – values are 1.6% higher over the year but -41.9% lower than the peak</li>
</ul>
 Overall regional areas of Victoria and Tasmania are most prominent on the chart reflecting relatively stronger conditions in the regional areas of these states.
Regional SA3 areas, annual change and change from peak
Click <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Regional%20SA3%20annual%20change%20and%20change%20from%20peak_2.PNG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Regional%20SA3%20annual%20change%20and%20change%20from%20peak_2.PNG" alt="Regional SA3 annual change and change from peak_2.PNG" width="589" height="619" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="dee27823-0f08-4ac9-8006-f87cd157834c" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Regional%20SA3%20annual%20change%20and%20change%20from%20peak_2.PNG">
 
The remaining 86 regional areas of the country have seen dwelling values fall over the past year. The greatest decline in dwelling values over the past year has occurred in the Outback-South region of Queensland where values have fallen -35.0% taking them -48.3% below their peak. This is a fairly sparsely populated region of southern Queensland which is largely agricultural and has been adversely affected by drought conditions.
Regional SA3 areas, annual change and change from peak
Click <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Regional%20SA3%20annual%20change%20and%20change%20from%20peak_3.PNG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Regional%20SA3%20annual%20change%20and%20change%20from%20peak_3.PNG" alt="Regional SA3 annual change and change from peak_3.PNG" width="552" height="557" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2e5295f7-142a-43aa-80fd-85f1a2c4c0fc" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Regional%20SA3%20annual%20change%20and%20change%20from%20peak_3.PNG">
The regions in which values have recorded the largest annual falls are generally remote mining and resource regions or those linked to the agricultural sector.
Of the 86 regions that have recorded a decline in values over the past year, 14 have recorded double-digit value declines. Again, most of these are mining or agricultural linked however, Kiama-Shellharbour (-11.5%) and Newcastle (-10.1%) are two regions that are fairly well populated that have seen large value falls, following a substantial rise in values during the recent growth phase. Wollongong in NSW has recorded the 15th largest decline over the year, having just avoided a double-digit fall (-9.6%).
Regional SA3 areas, annual change and change from peak
Click <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Regional%20SA3%20annual%20change%20and%20change%20from%20peak_4.PNG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Regional%20SA3%20annual%20change%20and%20change%20from%20peak_4.PNG" alt="Regional SA3 annual change and change from peak_4.PNG" width="512" height="549" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6ada93a6-b508-4314-b4bb-2029cc250744" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Regional%20SA3%20annual%20change%20and%20change%20from%20peak_4.PNG">
All of these regions now have values that are lower than their peak however, the largest falls from the market peak have been recorded in:
<ul>
<li>East Pilbara (WA) -69.3%</li>
<li>Kimberley (WA) -49.5%</li>
<li>Outback-South (Qld) -48.3%</li>
<li>Gladstone (Qld) -45.1%</li>
<li>Outback-North (Qld) -44.4%</li>
</ul>
From here it will be interesting to see how these regional markets react post-federal election. With some changes for housing (including the first home buyers deposit scheme and no changes to negative gearing / capital gains tax discounts), as well as APRA now considering changes to serviceability caps along with the prospect of interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank, prospects for regional housing may improve over the coming months. Add to this the potential for the Australian dollar to move lower together with strong commodity prices, and the outlook for regions connected with the mining and commodities sector should continue to improve.
CAMERON KUSHER  is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/taxonomy/corelogic-people/cameron-kusher" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
 
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Where are the suburbs with the biggest growth and declines: Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
There is a wide-spread belief that Reserve Bank Governor Lowe’s speech on 21 May clearly indicated that the RBA are set to cut official interest rates on Tuesday 4 June when they next meet.
While I (and the interest rate futures market and the overwhelming majority of economic commentators) believe that is still the most likely outcome, I can see a scenario whereby the RBA once again keeps rates on hold.
People love to tell me that housing isn’t the economy, and they’re right it isn’t however, it is the largest single asset class in the country and thereby pretty important to the health of the economy. Over recent weeks there have been a number of changes that have been overall a positive for the housing market going forward:
There was no change of government at the federal election. Whether you believe that changing the rules around negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount would have a big impact on the market or not, those proposed changes did inject a level of uncertainty into the market.
While the Labor Party was expected by most to win the election, the aftermath of a Coalition win seems to have seen a level of confidence returning to the market.
Dwelling value declines were already slowing but now lenders are reporting much higher levels of mortgage demand and auction clearance rates last week lifted to their highest level nationally since mid-May last year and in Sydney they increased to their highest level since April last year. 
APRA has signalled they are looking to change serviceability calculations on new mortgages.
Ultimately it will mean that some people that previously weren’t able to borrow will be able to and those that could already borrow will potentially be able to borrow more.
Again, these changes aren’t yet live but once implemented, easier access to a housing loan should support a lift in market activity and help to provide a floor under housing prices.
The RBA flagged that interest rates would be reduced. After official interest rates have remained on hold for 33 months, Governor Lowe dropped his biggest hint yet that interest rates will be reduced in June during his speech on the 21 May.
Interest rate cuts put more cash in mortgage holders pockets, if someone is struggling to repay their mortgage they can contact their banks and ask for a reduction in repayments (assuming lenders pass on a cut which is highly likely) and for those that choose not to reduce their repayments they end up paying back more of the loan principal thereby paying down debt quicker.
Furthermore, a lower cash rate typically means lower interest rates on savings accounts, thereby reducing the incentive to save and increasing the incentive to spend.
All three of those items are overall a positive for the housing market. It is important to note that items two and three have not yet happened so anyone now buying could have bought pre-election but chose not to.
To me that indicates a concern around policy changes proposed by the party perceived as most likely to win the election. So with the largest asset class looking more positive why would the RBA choose to cut now? It’s not a cut about housing it is a cut related to economic growth and inflation.
Headline inflation was unchanged over the March quarter and just 1.3% higher over the year.
The RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation was 0.2% over the quarter and 1.4% higher over the year, both drifting further away from the 2% to 3% target range. Underlying inflation has been allowed to sit below the target range since December 2015 and hasn’t hit the midpoint (2.5%) since September 2014.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or economic growth was recorded as 0.2% over the December 2018 quarter its lowest growth rate since September 2016. On an annual basis, GDP rose 2.3% which was its slowest rate of growth since June 2017.So we have low inflation and sluggish economic growth, which has been the case for some time but both have weakened further in their recent releases.
The RBA has repeatedly stated the main reason for not cutting interest rates is the strength of the labour market however, it has now also weakened. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate in April 2019 was 5.2% having risen for two consecutive months and the highest unemployment rate since August 2018.
Although the unemployment rate has risen, annual jobs growth has increased to 2.6%, its fastest growth rate since June 2018 and the workforce participation rate at 65.8%, the highest it’s been since January 2018.
So while the unemployment rate has weakened, more people are in work or looking for work and job creation has accelerated. We should note that unemployment is typically a lagging indicator and measures of job advertisements are showing slowdown over recent months.
Given all of this, I still believe than an interest rate cut on June 4 is the most likely scenario but I won’t be surprised if the RBA, which has taken a slow and measured approach to cash rate setting of late, is tempted to wait another month.
Waiting another month will allow the RBA to gather more evidence as to whether the housing market is truly improving and it will afford them the luxury of seeing the March quarter GDP figures which are released the day after their board meeting (June 5).
Another weak quarter of economic growth will surely trigger the need for a 25 basis point or even 50 basis point cut to the cash rate in July. Furthermore, by the time of the RBA’s July board meeting there will be another read on the labour force and if there is another monthly increase in the unemployment rate that surely constitutes a trend.
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What if the RBA doesn't cut rates? Cameron Kusher

The new <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/yarraville-green-42-stephen-street-yarraville-vic-3013">Yarraville Green</a> development in Melbourne's inner west is showing that landscaping can be just as influential as architecture, with buyers responding strongly to the garden-first approach adopted from the outset by developer Excelon Projects and the project's design team.

Excelon appointed Six Degrees Architects and landscape architects SBLA to work collaboratively on the development, with a brief to create "a sustainable, design-led building with a focus on community."

That approach has resonated with buyers. According to Next Chapter Director Tom Hirini, who is leading the sales campaign, the landscaped communal garden has become one of the project's defining features, alongside its boutique scale and European-inspired cluster housing concept.

Local downsizers, right-sizers and established families already living in Yarraville and surrounding suburbs have accounted for the majority of purchasers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297740]

Yarraville Green will comprise 53 homes, including apartments and townhomes, arranged around the shared central garden to maximise connections to the landscaped open space. Parking has been moved underground, allowing the ground plane to be dedicated to greenery, pedestrian movement and communal spaces.

The landscape extends well beyond passive planting. Productive garden beds, a pergola, communal gathering spaces, garden sheds and a pet wash have all been integrated into the masterplan, creating spaces designed to encourage everyday interaction between residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297741]

The interiors continue Excelon's focus on craftsmanship, incorporating bespoke elements by Melbourne artisans including leadlight detailing by Adadaz, hand-turned timber hardware by Auburn Woodturning and blown-glass lighting by Ruth Allen.

Sustainability has also been embedded throughout the project, with Yarraville Green targeting an average 7-star NatHERS energy rating through passive design principles, rooftop solar servicing common areas and rainwater harvesting for landscape irrigation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297735]

Construction continues to progress at Yarraville Green, with structural works well underway and framing works approaching completion under builder Balmain &amp; Co. The project remains on track for completion in mid-2027.

Apartments at Yarraville Green are currently priced from $625,000, while townhomes start from $1.4 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144913]

Joel Robinson

Garden-led design drives buyer demand at Yarraville Green

National diversified developer Fortis has officially launched Crest &amp; Walker, its latest Brisbane apartment development, with construction now underway on the 20-storey Newstead project.

Award-winning builder BINAH has commenced construction on the Bureau^Proberts-designed building, which will deliver a limited collection of 65 two and three-bedroom apartments on Kyabra Street.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373556]

The project marks Fortis' fourth active residential development in Brisbane, following River House, which is nearing completion, alongside projects in New Farm and Hamilton as the national developer continues to expand its South East Queensland pipeline.

Fortis General Manager – Development Queensland Dan Boman said Crest &amp; Walker reflects the developer's long-term commitment to delivering design-led residential projects in Brisbane's established inner-city suburbs.

"We're proud to be strengthening our presence in Brisbane with Crest &amp; Walker, particularly in such a sought-after lifestyle destination as Newstead," Boman said.

"Every Fortis project is shaped by its context, and we approach each one with the respect and care it deserves.

"Our focus is always on creating places that feel connected to their neighbourhood and elevate the everyday experience for residents. Newstead continues to evolve as one of Brisbane's most sought-after urban communities, and Crest &amp; Walker reflects our ambition to contribute meaningfully to that story."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373559]

Positioned between Gasworks Plaza and James Street, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crest-walker-newstead-12-kyabra-street-newstead-qld-4006">Crest &amp; Walker</a> has been designed as a boutique residential address offering privacy and generous living spaces within one of Brisbane's most established lifestyle precincts.

The building features a contemporary brick podium softened by integrated landscaping, while the upper levels are characterised by restrained architecture and enduring materiality. Interiors have been designed to maximise natural light, acoustic performance and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373583]

Residences comprise spacious two and three-bedroom floorplans, with two-bedroom apartments priced from $1.55 million and three-bedroom, half-floor residences from $3.95 million.

Residents will have access to a wellness-focused rooftop featuring a swimming pool, sauna, steam room, landscaped dining spaces and outdoor lounge areas overlooking Newstead and the Brisbane CBD.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373571]

Sales are being managed by Slaite Projects, with Fortis expecting strong demand from owner-occupiers seeking a high-quality, design-focused apartment in one of Brisbane's most tightly held inner-city suburbs.

Completion of Crest &amp; Walker is slated for late 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145922]

Fortis expands Brisbane pipeline with launch of Crest & Walker in Newstead

The enormity of delivering a true skyscraper in Australia's new development market is often overlooked.

It has taken the best part of a decade since plans for Chevron One were first unveiled, but the 41-storey tower is now complete, with residents collecting their keys and moving into what has become one of the Gold Coast's most recognisable new landmarks.

Rising 127 metres above Chevron Island, Chevron One stands almost twice as high as any other building on the island. Its scale places it alongside the trio of towers at Jewel, arguably the last truly significant addition to the central Gold Coast skyline when they were completed around six years ago.

While there are several developments underway around a similar height to Chevron One, they are more concentrated within clusters of the highest towers in the city. The fact Chevron One sits within a developing precinct, looking back at the other high-rise developments in Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach, makes it a different proposition altogether. It will certainly become a reference point on the Gold Coast skyline.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68833]

Developer Bensons Property Group is behind the 41-storey tower, which has 229 apartments, along with an exhaustive list of resident amenity spread across what is the largest development site ever assembled on Chevron Island.

The tower has been the talk of the town for years, says Ray White Projects Gold Coast agent Caitlin Rosenboom, who is selling the remaining apartments.

"People have been watching Chevron One go up for years," Rosenboom says, adding that many prospective buyers have been surprised by the scale of the views once they step inside.

"It's only when they walk through a completed apartment that they truly understand the position of the building," Rosenboom says.

"The views are jaw-dropping. Whether you're looking east over the ocean, across Surfers Paradise, along the river systems or out to the hinterland, every level offers something different but equally impressive."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=360215]

One of Chevron One's defining advantages is its location on the eastern side of Chevron Island on Stanhill Drive, a position which protects the views forever.

"There's only one row of houses between Chevron One and the water, and the height restrictions along the river means views from Chevron One can never be built out,"&nbsp;Rosenboom says.

While new apartment developments continue to emerge across the Gold Coast, Rosenboom says opportunities to secure a completed apartment with this level of outlook are becoming increasingly rare.

"The size of the site is something that would be incredibly difficult to replicate today," she says.

"That's allowed Chevron One to deliver the sort of amenity, open space and resident facilities that very few projects can offer. There are not many completed apartment buildings on the Gold Coast right now that can compete with the combination of scale, quality and amenity."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68839]

There's around 2,000 sqm of amenity solely for the use of residents of Chevron One. Club One features a uniquely shaped swimming pool that mirrors the footprint of the building itself, set within a extensively landscaped gardens. There's also an indoor pool and spa, a fully equipped gym with a Pilates room, a yoga garden, a bookable private dining area and lounge that can host up to 30 people, and a 24-hour concierge service.

As for the buyers, Rosenboom is fielding enquiry from everywhere: Sydneysiders and Melburnians looking at the new and off-the-plan market following the changes in the Federal Budget, as well as those looking to relocate, through to South East Queenslanders seeking either a permanent home or a weekender bolthole.

"The Gold Coast lifestyle continues to resonate with people relocating from the southern states, and when they see the views and the quality of what's been delivered at Chevron One, it becomes very easy for them to understand the appeal," Rosenboom says.

A diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments remain available, with each offering "something a little different", be it the orientation and views, configuration, or level, to suit a wide variety of buyers.

The remaining apartments are ready to inspect in person, by appointment.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6515]

A decade in the making: Residents to move into Chevron One as construction wraps up

A general rule of thumb in new apartment developments is that the penthouses get the rooftop.

It's a formula that's become commonplace across Australia's apartment market. Residents might have access to a pool, gym or barbecue facilities on a dedicated lower level, but the most desirable outdoor spaces are typically reserved for the highest-priced homes at the top of the building.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Property Group</a> has taken the opposite approach.

Rather than dedicating the rooftop to a handful of buyers, the Gold Coast developer has made it the centrepiece of its Flourish collection, creating expansive shared spaces from the best vantage point in the building.

The philosophy has reached its most ambitious expression at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> in Palm Beach, where two rooftop precincts connected by a skybridge will deliver one of the most extensive lifestyle offerings seen in a residential apartment project on the Gold Coast.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374053]

"We're seeing a clear move toward developments that offer more than just an apartment," Sherpa Group founder Christie Leet said.

"People want spaces that support how they actually live, whether that's working from home, staying active, or spending time with family and friends.

"That's where amenity becomes critical. It's not just about what's included, but how those spaces are designed to be used every day."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374052]

The breadth of amenity has already attracted buyers across multiple demographics. Younger first home buyers have been drawn to Soleira's one-bedroom apartments, a product rarely delivered in Palm Beach, while families have responded to practical inclusions such as the shallow children's pool adjoining the main lap pool and the extensive communal recreation areas.

Instead of a single rooftop, Soleira delivers two distinct lifestyle zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=372547]

The southern rooftop has been dedicated to wellness, featuring a gym, yoga and Pilates studio, work-from-home facilities, a wellness centre, spa, and hot and cold plunge pools.

The northern rooftop focuses on recreation and entertaining, incorporating a heated resort-style pool, private dining rooms, pizza ovens, barbecues, a golf simulator, children's recreation areas, and what is expected to be the Gold Coast's first rooftop basketball court, which will also double as a squash court.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374054]

Beyond the rooftops, Soleira will introduce 1,500 sqm of curated retail beneath the towers, creating one of Palm Beach's first genuinely mixed-use lifestyle precincts where cafés, restaurants and convenience retail become part of residents' everyday lives.

Sherpa has also retained management rights across the development, allowing it to oversee the long-term operation of the building through a 24-hour concierge model. The developer is also exploring additional revenue streams within the precinct aimed at helping offset ongoing body corporate costs for residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370962]

While Soleira is the largest project Sherpa has delivered, the rooftop-first philosophy has been evolving for several years.

It began with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>, the first project released under the Flourish brand. Rather than competing at the ultra-luxury end of the market with oversized half-floor and full-floor residences, Sherpa focused on creating lifestyle-driven apartments supported by resort-style shared spaces.

Amargo introduced more than 800 sqm of rooftop amenity, combining wellness facilities, heated pools, entertaining areas, cabanas, pizza ovens and private dining spaces into what was designed as an extension of residents' homes rather than a facility used only occasionally.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=366550]

That approach continued with Flourish Oasis, where the same amenity-led philosophy was refined into a more boutique development. Strong demand from Sherpa's growing VIP database saw much of the project sold before it reached the broader market, reinforcing buyer appetite for apartment communities centred around shared lifestyle experiences.

Flourish Amargo is slated for completion mid-way-through next year, with Oasis to be delivered by late 2027. Flourish Soleira is expected to complete in 2030.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa takes amenity to the sky as Flourish Soleira captures booming Palm Beach demand

As apartment living continues to evolve across Sydney's growth corridors, the quality and distribution of shared spaces is increasingly shaping how residents experience home. Rather than functioning as add-ons, amenities are being embedded into the daily rhythm of a building, supporting everything from quiet retreat to social interaction, often within a single vertical community.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aeris-melrose-park-nursery-street-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Aeris</a> in Melrose Park, this approach is resolved through a layered amenity offering that unfolds from ground level through to its upper podium. Developed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a> in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties, the project introduces 468 apartments across two towers and a mid-rise building, positioned at the highest point of the broader masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=359199]

The amenity experience begins at street level, where two courtyards sit within a landscaped setting that connects residents to the wider network of parks and green spaces. These green spaces are not isolated pockets but part of a wider pedestrian network that links Aeris to the surrounding <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a> precinct, including Central Park, future schools, and the Town Centre opening in July 2026. The result is a transition that moves from public to private without abrupt boundaries, allowing residents to pass through shaded, tree-lined environments before reaching the building itself.

Moving upward, the focus shifts to the level five podium, where the primary communal facilities are concentrated. This space brings together a 16-metre swimming pool, outdoor seating areas, and a communal BBQ zone arranged to take advantage of elevated outlooks. Seating is positioned beneath pergolas, creating pockets of shade that extend the usability of the space throughout the day. The pool edge aligns with views toward the wider district, reinforcing the sense of elevation that defines the project’s positioning.

In the adjacent building, this is complemented by quieter, more contemplative spaces, including an outdoor cinema set within the same level. Positioned to operate primarily in the evening, it introduces a different tempo to the shared environment, shifting from daytime activity to after-hours use without requiring separate zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360299]

The podium also accommodates an intimate private resident gym. Located on the lower levels, it gives residents convenient access to fitness facilities without leaving the building.

Above, the elevated podium sky deck extends the amenity offering, providing additional open-air spaces with elevated outlooks across the surrounding landscape. While more restrained in program, this upper level reinforces the project’s vertical progression, from ground-level greenery to elevated outlook, allowing residents to move between distinct spatial conditions within a single address.

This distribution of amenities reflects a deliberate response to how residents use space across the day. Sekisui House Australia Sales and Marketing Director Peter Kalaf points to the role these shared areas play in shaping buyer demand. Aeris has been conceived as more than a collection of apartments, with the podium pool, gym and outdoor cinema forming part of a broader lifestyle offering that extends the home beyond each individual residence.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360300]

What distinguishes Aeris is not the inclusion of these elements individually, but how they are arranged in relation to one another. Active, social, and passive spaces are layered vertically rather than separated, allowing residents to choose between them without leaving the building or moving far from their apartment. This proximity supports both routine use, such as a morning swim or evening workout, and more occasional gatherings, whether around the BBQ area or within the cinema setting.

The amenity design also sits within a broader framework of connectivity across Melrose Park. The Melrose Park Town Centre, anchored by Coles and Dan Murphys, features a mix of retail, dining, health and lifestyle offerings, bringing everyday convenience closer to residents. By the end of the year, more than five hectares of parks and open space, equivalent to around seven football fields of green space on residents' doorstep, will further enhance the precinct, allowing the internal facilities at Aeris to operate as an extension of the wider neighbourhood rather than a substitute for it.

Construction at Aeris continues to gather momentum, with ground floor slabs expected to be completed in late 2026 before the first sections of the buildings begin to rise above ground.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=426]

Cameron Kusher

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