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EXPERT OBSERVER
The recent Retail Sales Report for September has highlighted the state of demand in the Australian economy.
Real retail sales fell by 0.1% in the September quarter to be down by 0.2% over the year – the weakest result since 1991, when Australia was last in recession.
This Report is also consistent with the contraction in private domestic demand which we saw in the national accounts for the year to the June quarter.
That is despite consecutive rate cuts from the Reserve Bank in June and July and a $7.7 billion income tax cut for households (in the form of adjusting the tax offset, with a one-off lump sum payment) which started to become available from late in July.
A notable headwind to household spending is the fragility of Consumer Confidence. The Westpac MI Index of Consumer Sentiment slumped by 4.1% in July to 96.5. A rebound in August was short-lived. The latest print, for October, has the index down by 5.5% to a four year low of 92.5.
This weakness in Consumer Confidence is mirrored by weakness in Business Confidence and Conditions, which has extended throughout the September quarter, as evident in the NAB Survey.
We assess that the very low interest rates which the Reserve Bank has had to implement are now impacting confidence as consumers equate low interest rates with disturbing weakness in the economy.
The Reserve Bank has recognised that issue and is trying to balance the impact of lower rates on confidence with the benefits of lower rates through the traditional channels of lowering the AUD and boosting households’ disposable income.
A lift in spending through that second channel is being impacted by the confidence effect and the policies of some banks to adjust mortgage repayments with a lag – meaning that initially households pay down debt more rapidly rather than benefitting from improved cash flows.
We expect the RBA will persist with lower rates with one more cut to the cash rate next February. That decision may be represented as a package with additional stimulus taking the form of quantitative easing through a program of purchases of CGS; RMBS and other corporate securities and, possibly, long term funding for financial institutions.
It will be necessary to signal further stimulus through a program to maintain downward pressure on the AUD. With other central banks including the Federal Reserve; the ECB; the BOJ and the PBOC continuing to ease financial conditions the AUD will be at risk of unwelcome upward pressure if the RBA signals an end to its easing cycle.
Those monetary policies will reflect a difficult year in 2020 for the world economy as trade disputes, complemented by uncertainty around the US Presidential election, continue to impact investment and confidence.
However, as the RBA and other commentators have been highlighting, this need to boost demand also requires some support from fiscal policy.
Westpac acknowledges that there are supply constraints, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, for new large infrastructure projects. Boosting productivity of existing infrastructure through repairs and maintenance should be considered by the authorities as well as bringing forward appropriate projects in the Commonwealth Government’s current infrastructure plans.
The Federal Government’s mid-year budget update to be released in December, the MYEFO, is also likely to include further commitments to drought relief and aged care.
We are less supportive of further business investment allowances which have been mooted for the 2020 Budget. The instant write-off threshold has already been boosted to $30,000 and extended to companies with turnover of up to $50 million, covering 3.4 million businesses, employing around 7.7 million workers.
Business investment, particularly for big business, is being held back by concerns around the global economy; weak domestic demand and, in some cases, credit availability. Boosting investment allowances is unlikely to make a marked difference to investment given these ongoing constraints.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac.
This article was first published on <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/41000/14186/" target="_blank">Westpac IQ</a>.
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The Government should bring forward the personal tax cuts to boost demand in 2020: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
As expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 0.75% at its November Board meeting.
While this result was what was widely expected today, markets had given a 50% probability of a rate cut following the move in October. Westpac was never convinced of that prospect and had pointed to the fact that central banks usually make very strong cases for a decision and markets can over interpret that sentiment. We were also concerned that very low interest rates were likely to adversely affect sentiment, as we saw in the response to the June and July rate cuts where the Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 4.1%. Readers will be aware that following the October rate cut, the index fell by 5.5%.
For us, the most important aspect of the Governor’s November Decision Statement was the signalling around prospects for a cut in December. It has always been our view that policy would be unchanged in November and December, but when market pricing reached 50% for November, December pricing was around 90%.
There are two key signals to suggest that the Board will take a break in December as well. Firstly, the term “the Board will continue to monitor developments” was included in the final paragraph, with the term “monitor” implying no urgency to move. Secondly, the final paragraph also notes “the easing of monetary policy since June”. It is our experience that when central banks refer back to previous decisions, it is also unlikely that they plan to move in the near future.
However, we are mindful that the Board does not want the market to believe that it has reached the end of the easing cycle. That would put unwelcome upward pressure on the AUD. Consequently, there remains a very clear easing bias: “the Board… is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed”.
As indicated in our preview to today’s RBA decision, we pointed out that it was unlikely that the RBA would change its forecast for 2020. The Statement refers to growth in 2019 at 2¼ per cent and gradually picking up to 3 per cent in 2021. That indicates that the current growth forecast of 2.8% in 2020, which was adopted in August, is likely to be retained in Friday’s Statement on Monetary Policy.
The growth forecast for 2019 has been lowered from 2½ per cent to 2¼ per cent. When the 2½ per cent forecast was made, the RBA was unaware of the “softish” 0.5% GDP growth for the June quarter. With the first half of 2019 totalling 1 per cent, the 2¼ per cent forecast implies two quarters of around 0.6% growth in the second half of 2019. Westpac expects 0.5% in the September quarter.
Other key themes remain unchanged from the October statement: global economy risks are tilted to the downside; the main domestic uncertainty continues to be the outlook for consumption; the unemployment rate is expected to remain around 5 ¼ per cent for some time, before gradually declining to a little below 5% in 2021; wages growth is expected to remain around the current rate for some time; and there are further signs of a turnaround in established housing markets, especially in Sydney and Melbourne.
Some additional insights are: other sources of uncertainty include the drought and the housing construction cycle; and the recent inflation data were broadly as expected.
Conclusion
There is nothing in this Statement that prompts us to revise our current forecast that rates will be on hold in December with the next and final rate cut occurring in February next year.
Following that move, the state of the economy will be such that further stimulus will still be required, without which an unwelcome lift in the Australian Dollar would pose a significant headwind for the RBA’s current forecast of return to trend growth in 2020. Under those circumstances, it seems reasonable that the RBA might move towards some unconventional measures to boost demand and retain downward pressure on the Australian Dollar
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
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RBA stays on hold, signals on hold in December as well: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Reserve Bank Board meets on November 5 next week.
There is little chance that the Board will decide to cut the cash rate at that meeting.
Westpac confirms its forecast which was “refreshed” on July 24 that the Board would cut the rate by 25 basis points at the October meeting (done) and the February meeting in 2020.
Markets are pricing in a probability of a miniscule 4% for a November move.
However it was not always like that.
Back on October 4, I wrote, “we cannot concur with the markets pricing in a 50% probability of a follow up move in November".
There are a number of reasons for this caution.
Firstly, markets should understand that central banks will usually bias their comments on days on which they make policy changes to justify the decision. We saw some examples of that approach in the Governor’s Statement.
For example, he has, for no reason that is justified by the data, adopted a bolder objective than had been the case before by aiming for “full employment” rather than the more modest, “reduce unemployment” that we saw in September.
With the unemployment rate trending away from his full employment target and, by his own admission, "forward-looking indicators of labour demand indicate that employment growth is likely to slow from its recent fast rate" the introduction of that full employment target as a substitute for the more realistic “reduce unemployment” seems curious and is probably less significant than markets may have assessed.
We also think the RBA will be mindful of the response of the Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index to the consecutive cuts in June/July. Following the cut in July the Index fell by 4.1%. There was an apparent “spooking” of the consumer around the policy action.
With the RBA seeing the consumer as the key to the growth outlook, a “back to back” series of rate cuts leaving limited scope to cut further and risking a similar response from the consumer would counsel against that November move.”
Since that note we saw the Westpac MI Consumer Sentiment Index fall by 5.5% in response to the October rate cut, providing further evidence of the fragility of Confidence to low rates. Under such circumstances consecutive rate cuts would seem to be a significant policy mistake.
Apart from the arguments I put forward on October 4 we have also seen an absence of downside surprises in both the Employment and Inflation reports with both the unemployment rate falling modestly from 5.3% to 5.2% and the trimmed mean annual inflation rate holding steady at 1.6%.
Looking further out, markets have turned against prospects for a December rate cut with probabilities falling from 80% back on October 4 to 25%.
We concur with that assessment but are surprised that market pricing for February has tumbled from 100% on October 4 to 50% today.
Read full report <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/November/er20191101BullRBAonHoldNov.pdf">'RBA on hold in November' (PDF 73kb)</a>
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac 
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RBA on hold in November, 2020 growth and inflation forecasts unchanged: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER 
In last week’s note we opined that the Effective Lower Bound (ELB) for the RBA’s cash rate is 0.5% which we expected to be reached in February next year.
After that point we argued that the RBA would assess that the benefits to the currency and household cash flows from further cuts were likely to be offset by unintended consequences such as a negative impact on confidence of very low rates, financial instability, and a lowering of inflationary expectations as agents associated ultra-low rates with falling inflation.
We pointed out that our forecasts indicate that by that time, it seemed unlikely that the RBA would be satisfied that the economy was moving towards full employment, its potential growth rate, and inflation within the 2–3% band.
The RBA would also be concerned that with inflation still stuck below 2% and acknowledging that no further monetary policy action would be forthcoming, this would also encourage falling inflationary expectations as agents would sense that the RBA had run out of options.
Another risk in these circumstances might be that traders would also choose to bid up the AUD in the context of a dormant central bank.
Such a time might be appropriate for the Bank to consider unconventional monetary policies.
The Governor has publicly dismissed negative interest rates as an option but has indicated that, were the RBA to embark on a course of unconventional monetary policy, an asset purchase program would be the most likely policy option.
These programs have been used in other jurisdictions over the period 2008 to 2017.
Between 2008 and 2012 the programs were aimed at addressing disruptions in liquidity in the financial markets. They covered intervention in public sector bonds, commercial paper, agency debt, agency Mortgage Backed Securities, corporate bonds, and bank covered bonds.
From that point on, programs were aimed explicitly at monetary accommodation (with the Fed’s 2019 purchase plan to address overnight funding market issues).
In Australia’s current circumstances, given that Australian banks are flush with liquidity, any action from the RBA would be directed at monetary accommodation.
Read the full report: <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/October/er20191025BullQEStrategy.pdf" target="_blank">'RBA options for QE Strategy' (PDF 144kb)</a>
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
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Options for effective Quantitative Easing strategy for the RBA: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The employment report for September printed a modest fall in the unemployment rate from 5.26% to 5.20%. Further, the underemployment rate fell from 8.53% to 8.35%.
That will be sufficient to avert another rate cut from the RBA in November.
Westpac has consistently argued that a cut in November was unlikely and the Employment Report strengthened our case.
The October RBA meeting minutes made an important point that had not been part of earlier commentaries:
“Members also discussed the possibility that policy stimulus might be less effective than past experience suggests. They recognised that some transmission channels, such as a pick-up in borrowing or the effect on the home-building sector, may not be operating in the same way as in the past, and that the negative effect of low interest rates on the income and confidence of savers might be more significant. Notwithstanding this, transmission through the exchange rate channel was still considered likely to work effectively, and evidence suggested that the positive effects of lower interest rates on aggregate household cash flows via lower debt repayments was likely to support household spending, given that household interest payments exceed receipts by more than two to one”.
This point is highly relevant for any discussion around the Effective Lower Bound (ELB) for the cash rate in this cycle.
Certainly, with the Board targeting full employment (currently assessed by the RBA as 4.5% compared to the actual of 5.2%)and a move into the 2–3% target zone for underlying inflation, it seems certain that the RBA will reach its ELB before it achieves its objectives.
Westpac’s current forecast (first set out on July 24) is that the ELB is 0.5% and will be reached at the February Board meeting.
However this process is different to the normal process for forecasting the end point of any policy cycle. That forecast typically hinges around forecasting how far below (or above) neutral (or R*) the cash rate will need to be pushed before the authorities can be comfortable of achieving the objectives of full employment and inflation sustainably in the 2–3% target range.
So the policy around choosing the ELB will likely be determined by the trade-off between the expected impact of further cuts and unanticipated consequences of ultra-low interest rates.
The minutes have already highlighted one risk – the impact of ultra-low rates on confidence. That effect was further emphasised by the 5.5% fall in the Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment Index in October to its lowest level for four years. The survey was conducted during the week of the announcement of the 0.25% cut in the cash rate from 1% to 0.75%.
Read full report <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/October/er20191021BullPolicyDebate.pdf" target="_blank">'Policy debate' (PDF 99kb)</a>
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
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Policy debate hinges around risks of ultra low interest rates: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The growth rate is now materially below trend and is signalling that growth through the first half of 2020 is likely to remain below trend.
That profile is broadly consistent with Westpac’s forecasts which have growth in the first half of 2020 at an annualised pace of 2.4% consistent with the overall growth pace in 2020 of 2.4%.
This forecast contrasts with the Reserve Bank’s current forecast of 2.8% although that forecast may be revised when the Bank releases its new forecasts on November 8.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/10/16/LEADING%20INDEX.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/16/LEADING%20INDEX.jpg" alt="">
The Leading Index growth rate has deteriorated over the last six months from –0.56% in April to –0.92% in September.
The main components driving the 0.36ppt shift have been a further weakening in dwelling approvals (–0.25ppts); a deterioration in consumer sentiment (–0.21ppts); a sell-off in commodity prices (–0.20ppts); and slower growth in monthly hours worked (–0.11ppts).
These negatives have been partially offset by a reduced drag from the yield spread as the RBA’s rate cuts have lowered short term interest rates (+0.24ppts), and a slight improvement in US industrial production (+0.23ppts).
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on November 5. Westpac expects the Board to hold the cash rate steady at that meeting.
On October 15 the Bank released the minutes of the October Board meeting. The minutes contained a detailed justification for the decision to ease the cash rate from 1% to 0.75% at that meeting.
In particular it emphasised the benefits to the economy of a lower currency and improved cash flow for households, while recognising some potential negative impact on confidence of ultra-low rates.
That issue was subsequently highlighted by the 5.5% fall in the Westpac MI Consumer Sentiment Index in response to the October rate cut.
It seems clear that the Board expects to ease rates further although we believe the November meeting will be a little too soon. Westpac continues to expect that the next rate cut will come in February next year.
Read full report '<a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/October/er20191016BullLeadingIndex.pdf" target="_blank">Westpac-MI Leading Index September' (PDF 116kb)</a>
BILL EVANS is Chief Economist for Westpac
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Economic growth likely to remain below current RBA forecast: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
There are two very important aspects to the minutes of the October meeting of the Reserve Bank Board.
The first one relates to the conclusion to the minutes, “the Board would continue to monitor developments, including in the labour market, and was prepared to ease monetary policy further, if needed…”
This language is consistent with the July minutes following the cut at that meeting, “The Board would continue to monitor developments  in the labour market and adjust monetary policy if needed …”.
There was no move in August but this conclusion left the door open.
This compares with the August minutes, where the minutes concluded: “Having eased monetary policy at the previous two meetings, the Board judged it appropriate to assess developments in the global and domestic economies before considering further change to the setting of monetary policy. Members would consider a further easing of monetary policy if the accumulation of additional evidence suggested this was needed to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time.”
This indicated a clear message that rates would be on hold in September.
However,  consider the September minutes: “Members would assess developments in both the international and domestic economies, including labour market conditions, and would ease monetary policy further if needed…”
This clearly left the door open for a move in October which subsequently eventuated.
We were expecting the conclusion to the October minutes to look like the August conclusion, which would have indicated that the Board intended to pause in November as they gathered more information. That conclusion  was not used, and the conclusion looked like July.
The conclusion in October, “was prepared to ease”, is not as strong as the September conclusion “would ease”. It is  like the July conclusion, no strong commitment and allowing some flexibility.
However, it is surprising that the Board did not choose to close off the option of another move so soon after October.
The second important aspect of these minutes is a very detailed justification of the decision to cut in October and a general argument as to why lower rates still work in Australia. Firstly, the Board noted that it was the level of rates rather than the change that was the important determinant. Holding back rate cuts in anticipation of a negative shock was not the best policy. Instead, it is better to cut ; strengthen the economy immediately if deemed necessary so that the economy would be better placed to absorb a negative shock.
The Board also discussed whether  low interest rates might impact confidence. That was left as an open question, it still saw the transmission through the exchange rate channel working effectively and noted the positive effects of lower interest rates on aggregate household cash flows.( confidence issue is whether households decide to spend the improved cash flow.)
Finally, it noted that asset prices were part of the transmission mechanism of policy, including via encouraging home building. At this stage, it assessed that higher asset prices were unlikely to present a risk to financial stability and members saw only a limited risk of excess borrowing.
There is no doubt that this discussion can be seen as a justification of the decision that was made in October. As we have noted before, central banks will always provide robust arguments to support their decisions. However, these arguments seem to go beyond merely justifying the decision in October and laying the foundation for even lower rates.
There is no discussion at this point as to whether an effective lower bound exists for the cash rate. We do not think we should interpret this discussion as contemplating negative rates or even zero rates.
The commentary on the domestic economy further lowers the RBA’s assessment of the strength of the economy. This could be expected given the decision to cut rates.
In particular, the residential construction downturn was now expected to continue for some time, “the decline in dwelling investment for the June quarter was greater than had been expected a few months earlier”, and “the Bank’s liaison program continued to report weak pre-sales for higher density developments”. Members also noted that conditions in retailing are reported to have been very weak, and there had not been a pick- up in household spending following the tax cuts and cash rate reductions. Employment growth was likely to moderate over the subsequent few quarters.
On the positive side strong exports growth; and public demand was noted, while strong employment growth had boosted growth in labour income.
Unusually, the minutes did not confirm the current forecast that GDP growth in 2020 would be around trend. This might imply that the Bank is preparing to lower its GDP forecast for 2020 when it releases the revised forecasts on November 8.
Conclusion
We were surprised that the Board did not indicate more clearly that it was planning to take some time, given the decision in October, to assess the timing of the next cut. That indication would have been consistent with the wording used in August.
However, the language that is used is similar to July , following the cut at that meeting and, of course, there was no follow up move in August. 
The Board is clearly leaving itself the flexibility to move in November but we believe the hurdle is high and while the minutes leave us with little doubt that another cut is expected we are holding to the view we adopted in July that the next moves would be in October and February.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist for Westpac
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The RBA minutes make a strong case for lower rates: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
This is the lowest level of the Index since July 2015. The Index has fallen by 8.4% since the Reserve Bank started cutting rates in June and is down by 8.6% over the last year.
The fall comes despite a further 25bp cash rate cut from the RBA at its October meeting – the third rate cut since June taking the cash rate to a new historical low of 0.75%.
This result will be of some concern to the monetary authorities. Typically, an interest rate cut boosts confidence particularly around consumers’ expectations for and assessments of their own finances. In this survey these components of the Index fell by 3.7% and 4.9% respectively. This may be because, despite the rate cut, assessments for the economy overall plunged by 6% (the twelve month outlook) and 9.1% (the five year outlook).
Consumers are looking behind the reason for the rate cut and, arguably, the absolute level of rates and getting nervous.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/9/CONSUMER%20SENTIMENT.jpg" alt="">
The Index has now been in the range where pessimists outnumber optimists for three of the last four months. As discussed, the October update marks the lowest read since July 2015, when a sudden 30% plunge in the Chinese share market sparked concerns around the Chinese economy and resulted in a 3.3% fall in the Index. However this was more than reversed by an 8% recovery in the Index in the following month.
Global events have, again, contributed to the weak result in October with the deterioration in US-China trade relations weighing on the global economy amid speculation of a recession in the US. In fact, during the week of the survey the US share market fell by 2.6% and the Australian market was down by 3%.
But these events are unlikely to fully explain the sharp fall in the Index. Issues that may also be unnerving consumers include the debate around the lack of response of fiscal policy to the deteriorating outlook; the banks’ partial (13 to 15 basis points) pass through to the standard variable mortgage rate of the recent official rate cut; and the realisation amongst Australians that wages growth is likely to remain ‘stuck’ at a modest 2%yr or less for the foreseeable future.
All index components recorded material declines in October. Consumer expectations for the economy recorded the biggest falls – the ‘economy, next 5 years’ sub-index plunged 9.1% and the ‘economy, next 12 months’ sub-index dropped by 6%. October marks the first month both sub-indexes have been below their long run average levels since April 2016.
Assessments of family finances also took a heavy knock, the ‘finances vs a year ago’ sub-index was down by 4.9% and the ‘finances, next 12 months’ sub-index was down by 3.7%, the latter hitting a five year low. Both moves came despite the series of interest rate cuts since June and the LMITO tax relief rolled out since July. Note that despite the cut in the official cash rate confidence amongst respondents with a mortgage dropped by 4%.
While the biggest falls this month were around consumer views on the economy, it is consumer views around family finances that remain the clear weak spot with the combined reading across these two indexes 12 points below its long run average compared to a combined reading across economic sub-indexes that is 3 points below average.
Consumer attitudes towards spending also deteriorated in October. The ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index declined 4.2%, also moving to a four year low. Spending on discretionary and big ticket durable items has been particularly weak over the last year.
Despite the loss of confidence this month, consumers’ job loss fears improved slightly. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index declined 1.3% to 131.8 in October, holding slightly above the long run average of 130 (recall that lower readings indicate that more consumers expect unemployment to fall in the year ahead). However, the state detail shows the improvement overall was due to sharply improved reads in Queensland and WA offsetting slight deteriorations in NSW and Victoria. Even with the slight improvement the index nationally has still deteriorated by 9% since the middle of the year, consistent with a slowdown in jobs growth and steady increases in unemployment and underemployment rates.
Housing-related sentiment continues to show more mixed results with softer reads on ‘time to buy’ but more bullish expectations for prices suggesting affordability constraints may be starting to re-emerge.
The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index declined a further 5.4% in October to be down 8.1% from its August peak (a five year high). At 116.6, the index is now below its long run average of 120. NSW and Victoria have shown particularly sharp deterioration, down 12% and 14% respectively since August.
In contrast, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations Index posted a further 5.9% rise in October following the 3.9% rise in September to be up a spectacular 54.4% since May.
Not surprisingly, the state detail on price expectations is the mirror image of the picture from assessments of ‘time to buy’ with the biggest gains over the last two months again coming in NSW (+12.5%) and Vic (+16.6%). More consumers nationally now expect prices to rise than fall – the first ‘net positive’ consensus since mid-2018.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on November 5. Westpac expects the Board will decide to keep the cash rate on hold. Despite this unexpected plunge in the Index the Board is likely to take some time to assess the impact of the three rate cuts before deciding to move again. As we discussed in this report, they will also be alerted to the impact that reductions in the cash rate to well below historical lows may be having on consumers’ assessments of the economy.
In particular, the signals around how consumers are assessing their own finances are worthy of detailed consideration before the Board embarks on its next move.
Westpac expects that next move will be a further cut in the cash rate to 0.5% in February next year although a case can be made for an earlier cut in December depending on developments in the labour market and the global economy.
While we expect the Bank will also be studying various types of unconventional monetary policy measures it is to be hoped that the signals from this survey highlight the possible unintended consequences that may result from the option of resorting to negative interest rates.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac.
This article was first published on <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/40598/14186/" target="_blank">Westpac IQ</a>.
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Consumer sentiment drops to four year low: Westpac's Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
As expected the RBA Board lowered the cash rate by 25 basis points at its October meeting to 0.75%.
Back in July we identified October and February as the likely dates for the next moves. At that time only 3 forecasters out of 24 in the surveys were forecasting an October move and most were not anticipating a terminal rate as low as 0.5%.
We have not changed our forecasts since then and therefore welcome the Governor’s Statement which opens the door for another move.
However we cannot concur with the markets pricing in around a 50% probability of a follow up move in November.
There are a number of reasons for this caution.
Firstly, markets should understand that central banks will usually bias their comments on days on which they make policy changes to justify the decision. We saw some examples of that approach in the Governor’s Statement.
For example, he has, for no reason that is justified by the data, adopted a bolder objective than had been the case before by aiming for “full employment” rather than the more modest, “reduce unemployment” that we saw in September.
With the unemployment rate trending away from his full employment target and, by his own admission, “forward-looking indicators of labour demand indicate that employment growth is likely to slow from its recent fast rate” the introduction of that full employment target as a substitute for the more realistic “reduce unemployment” seems curious and is probably less significant than markets may have assessed.
In full, he noted, “the Board will continue to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the inflation target over time.”
A more significant aspect of that statement is the choice of the term, “if needed” which arguably implies that time will be taken to assess the impact of the three cuts in this cycle before moving again (note that he did not use “if needed” following the June decision which was subsequently followed up by a cut in July.)
We also think the RBA will be mindful of the response of the Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index to the consecutive cuts in June/ July. Following the cut in July the Index fell by 4.1%. There was an apparent “spooking” of the consumer around the policy action.
At the time we noted: “The main driver continues to be deepening concerns about the outlook for the Australian economy and prospects for family finances. The index components show the biggest decline in the sub-index tracking expectations for the ‘economy, next 12 months’ which slumped 12.3% to be down 16.4% since May to its lowest level in four years. Longer term expectations for the economy were also pared back sharply, the ‘economy, next 5 years’ sub-index falling 6.7%.”
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac.
This was first published on <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/40295/52930/" target="_blank">Westpac IQ</a>.
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Low chance of follow up rate cut in November: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
<div class="col-sm-9">
This note is to confirm the RBA forecasts which we released on July 24 that the Bank will cut the cash rate by 25 basis points on October 1 and again by 25 basis points on February 4, 2020.
That call updated our previous call on May 24 when we were the only forecaster (Bloomberg Survey on that day) to argue that the cash rate would fall below 1%.
Over the last few weeks markets had lost confidence in the October view. On September 13 markets priced an October move with a probability of 26%.
We were feeling decidedly lonely with our October call.
However, over the course of last week markets have moved to a 80% probability of this move.
What changed over the week?
The most important development was the release of the September RBA Board minutes.
From our perspective we were encouraged by the sentiments in the minutes.
Following the release of the minutes I wrote:
“The minutes of the Reserve Bank Board’s September meeting contain similar themes to the August minutes but indicate that the Board acknowledges that it is getting closer to its next move on policy.
In August the Board minutes concluded that: “Having eased monetary policy at the previous two meetings, the Board judged it appropriate to assess developments in the global and domestic economies before considering further change to the setting of monetary policy. Members would consider a further easing of monetary policy if the accumulation of additional evidence suggested this was needed to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time”.
In these minutes there is no reference to previous actions. Arguably reference to previous actions is a clear sign that the Board is content to observe developments whereas not referring to previous actions there is less emphasis on the need to wait.
It is also interesting that the theme that drove the June and July decisions to cut rates: “the Australian economy could sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment” was repeated in these minutes whereas that particular theme was absent in the August minutes.
The minutes refer to three “developments that had a bearing on the monetary policy decision”.
- The labour market – strong employment growth was recognised but the unemployment rate had remained steady at 5.2% (recall that the Governor has noted on other occasions that he would like to see the unemployment rate at 4.5%) and that wages growth “had remained low”. Indeed the minutes point out that “the upward trend in wages growth appeared to have stalled”. We are aware that the Governor sees rising wages growth as the key to a sustained lift in spending growth and higher inflation. In addition the minutes noted that “forward – looking indicators had continued to suggest that employment growth would moderate over the following six months”.
- The housing market – it was noted that there was “a turnaround in established housing markets” but from the perspective of economic activity there was “further weakness in dwelling investment in the near term” and low turnover in the housing market meant that “spending on home furnishings and other housing related items was not expected to contribute to consumption growth in the near term”.
- GDP growth – the Board meeting was held the day before the release of the June quarter national accounts. When the RBA released its forecasts on August 9 it was expecting GDP growth in the June quarter to be 0.8%; in the minutes it referred to an expectation of 0.5% due to the weakness of the partials in the lead up to the release. That forecast proved to be correct but the minutes did note that “private final demand was expected to be weak”. (In fact it was flat in the June quarter and down 0.4% for the year! – “weak” is probably an overstatement of the state of final demand).
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BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac.
This was first published on <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/40369/14186/" target="_blank">Westpac IQ</a>.
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Westpac's Bill Evans confirms October 1 rate cut forecast

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/broadbeach-qld-4218">Broadbeach</a> offers plenty of reasons to live vertically, but moving from a substantial family home into an apartment can expose the compromises of high-density living. Privacy, room for guests and usable living space tend to matter more when an apartment is intended as a permanent home rather than an occasional coastal base.

A typical residential floor at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-eveleigh-broadbeach-7-9-surf-parade-broadbeach-qld-4218">The Eveleigh</a>, on Surf Parade,&nbsp;contains just four apartments. The 94-residence development by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hirsch-faigen">Hirsch &amp; Faigen</a> is predominantly made up of expansive three-bedroom homes, with a limited collection of half-floor penthouses above.

Across the apartment floors, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> has used the relatively limited number of residences to give each home greater access to natural light and outlook. Living spaces extend towards full-height glazing, while a series of bay windows frame selected views across the Pacific Ocean, city and hinterland rather than treating the building edge as a continuous wall of glass.

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[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360965]

“The apartment floors deliver a collection of homes that embrace controlled outlook via a series of bay windows deliberately framing moments of view,” Rothelowman Director Kim Lowman said.

From outside, those projecting forms contribute to the tower’s faceted profile. Strong horizontal and vertical elements establish its proportions, while the changing position of the sun alters the light, shadow and reflection across the façade throughout the day.

The same attention moves inside the apartments, where the material palette combines warm timber, natural stone, metallic detailing and softer curved forms. Kitchens sit within the main living zone, with stone island benches, integrated joinery and European appliances, before the living areas extend towards the glazing and the outlook.

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[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360981]

Three genuine bedrooms provide room to accommodate family and guests, while two secure car spaces and storage address some of the practical considerations that can become more noticeable when moving from a larger home. Feedback from the display suite has centred on the warmth and restraint of the interiors, with buyers commenting that the residences feel like homes rather than conventional coastal apartments.

A limited collection of half-floor penthouses occupies the upper levels, increasing the scale of the living spaces and adding private balconies and elevated finishes. From this position, the outlook extends between the ocean and hinterland.

Outside the private residences, The Eveleigh separates its shared spaces between the podium and rooftop. The podium is centred on wellness, with subtropical landscaping surrounding a swimming pool and pool terrace, yoga garden, private gymnasium, sauna and hot and cold plunge facilities. Landscaped retreats and pavilions provide additional places to sit away from the main recreation areas.

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[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360966]

Higher in the building, a rooftop pavilion and private dining suite sit alongside resident lounge, barbecue and outdoor dining areas, opening towards panoramic views across the ocean, city and hinterland.

“Buyers are no longer just looking for an apartment, but a lifestyle where they can relax, reset, and enjoy a balanced way of living,” Hirsch &amp; Faigen Director of Sales Matt George said.

Interest to date has come from established owner-occupiers and interstate lifestyle purchasers, including buyers planning a future move to the Gold Coast. Many are coming from larger homes and want to reduce ongoing maintenance without giving up space for family and guests, privacy, two car spaces or the ability to entertain at home.

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[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360969]

Much of that daily life can also take place beyond the building without requiring a drive. Kurrawa Beach and Pratten Park are an easy walk from Surf Parade, while Pacific Fair, Oracle Boulevard, The Oasis, restaurants, cafés, entertainment and public transport are also within walking distance.

The Eveleigh is Hirsch &amp; Faigen's fourth Gold Coast development since entering the market in 2021, following The Hemingway at Palm Beach, The Emerson at Kirra and Yves at Mermaid Beach. Each of the preceding projects sold out before completion.

“Broadbeach had been on our radar throughout our time operating on the Gold Coast,” the developer said. “Following our projects in Palm Beach, Kirra and Mermaid Beach, Broadbeach represented the natural next step for the business.”

The Surf Parade site brought together proximity to the beach, protected coastal outlooks and walkability to dining, shopping and recreation. Hirsch &amp; Faigen also identified the street as an emerging premium residential address, with enough separation from Broadbeach's busier destinations to retain a quieter environment at home.

The Eveleigh is now under construction by Maxcon, with completion forecast for mid-2028. Three-bedroom residences are currently available from $2.87 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=149670]

Joel Robinson

The Eveleigh brings house-like apartments to Broadbeach

A long-stalled Campbelltown development site is back in play, with new plans for 139 apartments set to supersede a mixed-use scheme approved almost a decade ago but never built.

The new proposal for 28 Cordeaux Street would deliver 116 market and 23 affordable apartments in a part 14-storey building, bringing a substantial new project into a Campbelltown market where new apartment supply remains limited.

Plans have been filed over the 3,092 sqm corner site at Moore-Oxley Street, around 600 metres from Campbelltown Railway Station and the city-centre retail core.

The site already carries a mixed-use residential approval dating to 2016. Doroch Architects has now been engaged on a larger replacement scheme, which is progressing as a State Significant Development Application following a Housing Delivery Authority determination in August 2025.

The apartment mix comprises 39 one-bedroom, 72 two-bedroom and 28 three-bedroom residences. Two-bedroom apartments make up just over half of the project, while three-bedroom homes account for 20 per cent.

<img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="136dd5b9-3791-4da6-9e31-76f533f5b4de" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da2.png?VersionId=LgOSy9nwf5u.MGswBBwaGGxuX8QpHSl_" />

Of the 139 apartments, 23 will be delivered as affordable housing under the in-fill affordable housing provisions of the Housing SEPP. The affordable component represents 15 per cent of the residential gross floor area and will be managed by a registered Community Housing Provider.

Doroch has sought to break the scale of the building into two distinct elements, with a masonry podium of around four storeys establishing the street edge before the residential tower steps back above.

The corner position has shaped that approach. Cordeaux Street faces toward the commercial and civic centre, while Moore-Oxley Street leads into the lower-scale residential neighbourhood to the south, and the design verification report describes the site as "bridging the commercial core to the north and established residential areas to the south."

The podium will be expressed predominantly in face brick, while the upper levels shift to brushed and grooved concrete cladding with darker metal detailing. Recessed sections, deep balcony edges and landscaping break down the upper form, with an approximately 11.8-metre setback to the northern boundary addressing the adjoining St Peters Anglican School.

<img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c8b3d2d3-c561-4bfc-a5d9-a68c0c10dac1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da1.png?VersionId=AeAEyJU02Gk2k5noUj2StziCvdQ7fW4B" />

Campbelltown has been starved of new residential developments in the last decade.

The only other notable development set to come to market this year is ALAND's Queen Square, a mixed-use precinct on over two hectares that will comprise apartments above a vibrant ground-level retail and hospitality dining precinct.

First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site

First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches apartments for low-rise Deception Bay

Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

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Bill Evans

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