EXPERT INSIGHT

Make no mistake, this is a big spending budget.

The policy approach was appropriate highlighted by worthy social programs. However, a better balance between short term tax initiatives and genuine tax reform would have been a more effective approach.

New stimulus initiatives, headlined by the surprise extension to the instant asset write-offs for businesses, are worth 4.1 per cent of GDP over four years &ndash; about eight times the pace of the pre-election budget in 2019.

For perspective, the government&rsquo;s stimulus spending in last year&rsquo;s budget following the biggest economic shock since the 1930s was a little higher at 5.5 per cent of GDP, but not materially so.

The disruption from COVID and this associated stimulus response is forecast to see net debt lift from 19.2% of GDP in 2018/19 to 34.2% in 2021/22 and 40.9% in 2024/25.

Despite this sharp increase in debt the cost of servicing the debt is forecast to hold at a modest 0.7% of GDP due to the low interest rate environment.

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An early use of policies to reduce debt would have been at the expense of allowing the economy to operate at its potential.

As with other countries debt ratios are unlikely to return to pre COVID levels.

Any return to sustained full employment would see significant budget repair although the public sector is still likely to cycle around much higher debt ratios than we saw before the advent of COVID.

Despite employment levels now being above pre-COVID-19 levels and GDP expected to boom this year, the government is clearly going all in to &ldquo;secure the recovery&rdquo; and drive the unemployment rate down faster.

This drive for growth strategy, along with appropriate commitments to additional services, sees fiscal and monetary policy firmly working together to reach full employment.

The government defines full employment as 4.5 per cent, although that level is not forecast to be reached until mid-2024. Westpac &ndash; and I believe the Reserve Bank &ndash; sees it as 4 per cent or even a little lower.

BILL EVANS&nbsp;is the Chief Economist at Westpac

The policy approach was appropriate highlighted by worthy social programs, however, a better balance between short term tax initiatives and genuine tax reform would have been a more effective approach

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Federal Budget 2021: Genuine tax reform stuck in the too-hard basket: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Westpac has lifted its economic growth forecasts for 2020 and 2021 from –3.0% and 2.8% to –2.0% and 4%, respectively. Our growth forecast for 2022 has been lowered from 3.5% to 3.0%.
As a result of this substantial near term boost to the growth forecasts we have also lowered our forecasts for the unemployment rate by December 2021 from 7.0% to 6.0% and 6.3% to 5.2% by December 2022.
Under these forecasts we expect that the level of consumer spending and the level of GDP will return to the “end 2019” levels by the June quarter 2021.
By end 2021 GDP will be around 2% above the end 2019 level but still around 3% below the level of GDP that would have been expected in the absence of covid.
These revisions follow the stronger than expected print for GDP growth in the September quarter (3.3%) compared to our forecast of 3.0% and our revised forecast growth rate in the December quarter of 2020 from 1.6% to 2.3%.
The dominant message from the September quarter national accounts was the 7.9% surge in consumer spending, including 9.8% for services and 5.2% for goods. Consumer spending actually contracted by 1.2% in Victoria while it lifted by 11% in the other states.
As the Victorian economy (around 25% of the national economy) reopens in the December quarter and momentum remains positive in the other states we expect consumer spending to lift by a further 5% in the December quarter.
The key to the revision for 2021 is the expectation that the recent lift in Consumer Sentiment to a seven year will be sustained; the increased momentum in the housing market will continue; a likely commitment by the government to continue to target a lower unemployment rate in the 2021 Budget; the huge boost to markets and global growth prospects with the advent of vaccines; the significant buffer of savings that will accommodate a large fall in the savings rate; ongoing reopening momentum; a likely upward revision to the government’s currently overly pessimistic net migration forecasts.
The headwinds from deferred loans and the tightening of insolvency laws are now seen to be less threatening for the economy as the economy has gathered such momentum in the second half of 2020.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
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Westpac's Bill Evans optimistically revised 2021 unemployment forecast

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At its December meeting the Reserve Bank Board decided to maintain the policy settings it adopted at the November Board meeting.
The Governor confirmed the key forecasts that were adopted for the November Statement on Monetary Policy: “It will not be until the end of 2021 that the level of GDP reaches the level attained at the end of 2019. In the central scenario, GDP is expected to grow by around 5 per cent next year and 4 per cent over 2022”.
That growth profile is expected to be consistent with an unemployment rate of 8% by end 2020; 6.5% by end 2021; and 6% by end 2022.
It is this persistently high unemployment rate that is expected to weigh on wages growth and ultimately inflation prompting the Governor to confirm that “the Board is not expecting to increase the cash rate for at least 3 years”.
Over the course of the next few months, as we move to the next Board meeting on February 2 the Board may need to significantly review its forecasts.
Firstly, the unemployment rate in December, seems unlikely to reach 8% given its current level of 7.1%.
Westpac expects strong employment growth in November as Victoria reopens and while the participation rate is likely to rise a jump in the unemployment rate to 8% seems unlikely.
Secondly, the RBA is forecasting growth in 2020 of minus 4% implying growth of around 3.5% in the second half. We expect the GDP report for the September quarter will print around 3% leading to a growth rate in 2020 of minus 3% including growth in the second half of around 4.5%. That further supports the likelihood that the unemployment rate finishes the year well below the RBA’s 8% forecast.
With population growth in 2021 reflecting a likely contraction in net immigration potential growth in 2021 could be in the 1.5% – 2.0% range, (the Government’s current forecasts are for net migration in 2020/21 of minus 70,000 and for 2021/22 of minus 20,000).
The RBA’s forecast of GDP growth of 5% in 2021 currently implies a fall in the unemployment rate of 1.5 ppt’s – such a gap between potential and actual growth (3–3.5 ppt’s) could well see a more significant fall in the unemployment rate. Certainly, if we end 2020 with an unemployment rate below 7.5% and markets “buy” the 5% growth forecast for GDP in 2021 markets are likely to be projecting an unemployment rate of well below the RBA’s current 6.5% forecast.
For 2022 the RBA is forecasting another “above potential “growth rate of 4%. While population growth will have lifted in 2022 as foreign borders reopen we are almost certain to get a below par rate of population growth in 2022- implying perhaps a potential growth rate of 2.25% – well below the forecast rate of 4%. Markets may also be surprised that in such circumstances the unemployment rate is only forecast to fall by 0.5% from 6.5% to 6.0%.
We are sceptical about the 5% growth forecast in 2021 but would expect that if it was “delivered” the unemployment rate would finish 2021 well below the RBA’s 6.5% forecast; equally a 4% growth rate in 2022 with sub-par population growth would likely see a bigger fall in the unemployment rate than 0.5 ppt’s.
Faster than forecast falls in the unemployment rate in 2021 and 2022 would certainly invite speculation in the market about the RBA’s policy direction.
Taking the RBA’s unemployment rate forecasts at face value there is clear scope for more policy support. The RBA sees its role as complementary to fiscal policy – “monetary and fiscal support will be required for some time” and “the Board is not expecting to increase the cash rate for at least three years”.
The decision to peg the three year target bond rate at the cash rate is the strongest form of forward guidance – much bolder than we see from other central banks that engage in forward guidance.
On the face value of the RBA’s current forecasts, Westpac’s view that the RBA will be required to adjust the target rate on the three year bond around mid 2022, seems reasonable but, as discussed, the risks around the forecasts will see significant market speculation around this issue through 2021.
We also learned from Deputy Governor Debelle’s speech last week that the 3 year rate is more significant for the private sector than the longer maturities (say 5 – 10 years).
That implies that the sequence of any unwinding of the policy package of the November Board meeting is likely to be QE first; followed by yield curve control; followed by adjusting the cash rate.
In the near term the Governor’s confirmation that “The Board will keep the bond purchase program under review, particularly in light of the evolving outlook for jobs and inflation … is prepared to do more if necessary”. raises the real prospect that the $100 billion program, which is targeted to be completed by June, will be extended. That decision would certainly be consistent with the timing that Westpac currently envisages for the adjustment of the yield curve control policy.
Since the Board announced its suite of policies on November 3 the AUD has risen from USD0.716 to USD 0.737. As noted in the Governor’s Statement the policy response contributes to “a lower exchange rate than otherwise”.  Reasonably the Governor attributes the vaccine related “improvement in risk sentiment” with a depreciation of the US dollar and an appreciation of the Australian dollar”. There is no hint of disappointment or impatience with this rise in the AUD.
Conclusion
Whereas 2021 might appear to be an uneventful year from the perspective of the cash rate the introduction of the RBA’s other policy tools raises a range of uncertainties about the policy mix.
All of these uncertainties will have significant implications for markets; the yield curve; and ultimately the economy.
2021 might not be that boring after all!
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Uncertainty around RBA forecasts suggests 2021 will not be boring: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The success of vaccine tests; Australia’s current strong growth story; and pivots around monetary policy are highly relevant to the market outlook.
The approach to monetary policy in Australia is changing.
In his speech last Monday, the Governor neatly set out the four aspects of current policy.
The nature of forward guidance – “we have now moved to place much more weight on actual outcomes rather than forecast outcomes". A reasonable interpretation here is that particularly due to the combination of globalisation and technology the functioning of labour markets has changed and the need to be pre-emptive with policy has dissipated.
It is now appropriate to wait to see inflation firmly within the 2–3% band AND high wages growth, requiring a return to a tight labour market. Arguably he is making the “tight labour market” a necessary condition so, if for example a spike in inflation resulted from a supply shock then that would be an insufficient condition to raise rates.
Consistent with the above view he emphasises the RBA’s mandate – price stability; full employment; and economic welfare. He confirms the sentiment in 1) by emphasising the need to reduce spare capacity in the labour market – jobs are the central focus and success with jobs will lead to progress on the inflation front.
He discusses “the gravitational pull of low global interest rates” – if that pull, which reflects the global excess of savings over investment, is overlooked developments around the exchange rate and the economy would be adverse.
However, in the Q&amp;A he again describes negative rates as “extraordinarily unlikely” since they make it “harder for banks to lend” although he does accept that the gravitational pull represented by any future decision of the US Federal Reserve to go negative would cause a rethink.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
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Mid-2021 economy likely to experience a “soft patch”: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
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Last Wednesday we released a bulletin in which we forecast that the RBA was set to cut the overnight cash rate to 0.1%; the three year target bond rate to 0.1%; the rate on the Term Funding Facility to 0.1%; and the rate the RBA pays on Exchange Settlement balances to 0.01%. 
We also forecast that the Bank would commit to further purchases of Australian and semi government bonds in maturities between 5 and 10 years. 
We expected that the action would be announced at the next Board meeting on October 6. 
We now expect the move will come a month later at the Board meeting on November 3.
October 6 happened to be Budget Day so our expectation was that it would be another “Team Australia” initiative with both the fiscal and monetary authorities working together to address the economic crisis. 
The dimension of the crisis is best summarised by the official forecasts that the unemployment rate is set to rise to 10% by the end of the year and only be back to around 7% by the end of 2022. 
Admittedly, the choice of Budget Day to announce a series of further monetary stimulus steps was without precedent (the Budget is usually on the second Tuesday of the month and the RBA Board meeting is on the first Tuesday of the month). 
But the current crisis is without precedent as the blowout in the Budget deficit from $1 billion in 2028/19; to $85 billion in 2019/20; to an expected $230 billion in 2020/21 testifies. 
The timing of the key speech from Deputy Governor Debelle, from our perspective, pointed to the October timing. 
The speech indicated more concern from the RBA with respect to the outlook and emphasised that the Bank had more scope to ease policy. 
It came a week before the “black out” period for the October meeting and was the last scheduled speech before that “black out”. 
Our reading of the speech was that any policy changes were likely to come very soon. 
In fact he noted that it would be better to err on the side of doing too much rather than too little. 
As we discussed last week, the arguments for the RBA not changing policy near a Budget due to the need to assess the contents of the Budget did not stand up especially in a crisis period. 
For example, it is very unlikely that the RBA will lower its 7% forecast for the unemployment rate by end 2022 as a result of the contents of the Budget. 
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The “wait and see" argument also does not pass the “history test”. 
Since 2000 the RBA has changed the cash rate in May (a week before the Budget) on eight occasions. 
May has been the “most popular “month over the whole year for adjusting policy in those 20 years(ironically, second is November with seven changes). 
But certainly cutting the cash rate a week before the Budget announcement has a much less significant effect on the government’s capacity to sell the Budget than acting on Budget Day. 
A central bank moving on Budget Day could be interpreted by the government and the bank itself as diverting attention away from the Budget and complicating the government’s task in “selling” the Budget. 
The Governor himself, who has been such a strong proponent of fiscal policy, may also see the advantages of allowing space for the government to promote its Budget. 
So in the eyes of the authorities, there was probably a trade- off between a “Team Australia” moment and the government having the clear air to sell its Budget without any distractions from other policy makers. 
We saw the package of measures in March (widely described as a Team Australia policy approach) as boosting confidence through the impact of the combined policies. 
Central banks are influenced by and aim to influence expectations. 
For our “Team Australia” theme to have been viable we needed to see expectations and support for the concept build over the course of last week following Dr Debelle’s speech on Tuesday and our note on Wednesday. 
That has not happened. 
But the arguments for RBA providing a further policy boost to the economy are just as relevant. 
Consequently, we expect that the policy initiatives that we have outlined will now be introduced on November 3 giving the government adequate time to sell its Budget without any distractions coming from monetary policy. 
Bill Evans is the chief economist at Westpac.
This was first published <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2020/September/er20200928BullRBAPolicyChanges.pdf" target="_blank">on WestpacIQ</a>.
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Westpac push RBA rate cut forecast to November

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EXPERT OBSERVER
In a speech yesterday the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank gave a fairly clear hint that the Board is set to cut the cash rate and other key policy rates at its October Board meeting.
The Bank is also likely to extend its objectives for bond purchases to include general support for the Australian and semi government yield curves in the five to ten year maturity range. It is likely to leave this commitment open ended at this stage.
We have discussed these issues in previous notes but did not expect the action as soon as the next Board meeting as now seems to be the case.
The theme is likely to be, as we saw in March, a Team Australia moment where the Reserve Bank is directly supporting a bold Federal Budget.
The prospect of the RBA “sitting back” to assess the Budget, which has been seen as the “norm” in previous years is not appropriate for these unique times.
We now expect the RBA to cut the overnight cash rate to 10 basis points; to adopt a 10 basis point three year bond target; and to adjust the rate on any new drawdowns of the Term Funding Facility to 10 basis points. All these rates are currently set at 25 basis points , which the Governor has generally described as the effective lower bound for the cash rate.
The Bank is also likely to reduce the rate which the Bank pays on Exchange Settlement Account balances from 10 basis points to 1 basis point.
If the banks are only earning 1 basis point on their ESA balances there will be significant incentive to purchase bonds, even if the bond is only yielding 10 basis points, or lend to the private sector.
BILL EVANS is <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/44613/14186/" target="_blank">Westpac's chief economist</a>
 
 
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Westpac now expect RBA to cut in October: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment surged by 18% from 79.5 in August to 93.8 in September.
We suspected last month’s 9.5% collapse in the Index was an over-reaction but this month’s 18% rebound is a pleasant surprise nonetheless. It comes despite official confirmation in the survey week that Australia had experienced its first recession since 1992. Clearly this was ‘old news’ with respondents more focussed on the future.
The rebound means the Index is now just 1.6% below the average over the six months prior to the emergence of COVID-19 in March.
Recall that the sharp fall in August was in reaction to the deteriorating virus situation in Victoria which had seen the state government announce hard lockdown measures at the start of the month including ‘Stage 4’ restrictions for Melbourne. But the more concerning message in August was the weakness in other states – in particular, the 15.5% slump in confidence in NSW.
The state had seen persistent clusters of virus cases and combined with Victoria’s problems, sparked concerns of a wider ‘second wave’ outbreak. To a lesser extent these fears were also apparent in Queensland where confidence tumbled 8.1%.
However, Victoria’s new cases slowed markedly once lockdown measures were in place and we saw no evidence of second waves in either NSW or Queensland.
It should be noted that the September survey was completed before the announcement by Victorian State Premier Andrews on September 6 of a slower than generally expected move towards reopening. The disappointment with that announcement could have been expected to dampen the 14.9% surge in confidence in Victoria, although frustration at the extended lockdown measures would likely still be more than outweighed by the clear success they have had in containing the virus.
We do not expect the Premier’s announcement would have had any impact on the positive results in other states.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
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Consumer sentiment roars back despite news of recession: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
We have revised our growth forecasts in 2020 and 2021 to reflect a more resilient consumer and labour market - particularly in Victoria.
We have revised our growth forecasts for the Australian economy in 2020 from minus 4.7% to minus 3.5%.
Forecast growth in the September quarter has been increased from flat to 1.8% while growth in the December quarter is revised down from 2.8% to 2.2%.
For 2021 we have revised down growth from 3.0% to 2.5%.
The unemployment rate that was expected to reach 8.5% by the end of 2020 has been lowered to 7.8%; while the forecast end 2021 rate has been held around 7.5%.
The GDP Report this week signalled that the Australian economy had contracted by a record 7% in the June quarter. Consumption contracted by a spectacular 12.1% and hours worked fell by 9.8%. The fall in consumption explained 98% of the overall reduction in activity.
Despite that collapse in hours worked total nominal wage income “only” fell by 2.5% and total nominal household income actually rose by 2.2%.
With a sharp fall in spending and an actual increase in incomes the savings rate rose to 19.8% from 6.0%, highlighting the significant improvement in household balance sheets which would be consistent with considerable pent up demand to spend.
BILL EVANS is the Chief Economist at Westpac
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Optimistic revision of economic growth forecasts: Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Australian economy contracted by 7% in the June quarter, broadly in line with expectations (both Westpac and market median at -6%).
This is by far the largest quarterly contraction in the Australian economy on record (previous record was -2.0% in June 1974).
However by international comparisons the contraction is relatively mild with UK (-20.3%); Europe (-12.1%); US (-9.1%); and Japan (-7.8%) all exceeding Australia’s contraction.
Of course these extraordinary numbers reflect the impact on activity from governments’ actions to contain the health damage to citizens from the Coronavirus.
As with other countries the primary impact of the containment policies was to restrict consumer spending. For Australia consumer spending represents 56% of GDP yet the 12% contraction in consumer spending explained 98% of the overall contraction in GDP. Components of consumption which were most adversely affected were: transport services (fell 86%); accommodation services (-77%); catering services (-56%); recreational and cultural services (-52%) and health (20%).
Household gross disposable income rose by 2.2%, largely reflecting the boost to social assistance benefits.
Hours worked fell by 9.8% although wage incomes declined by only 2.5%. That “gap” is explained by the JobKeeper subsidy payments which were used to maintain the wages of workers who experienced a significant reduction in hours worked.
With the lift in household incomes and the collapse in spending the household savings rate soared to 19.8% from 6% in the March quarter.
The sharper fall in hours worked relative to output points to the disproportionate job losses in the labour intensive service sectors of the economy.
The dominance of consumer spending in this result is generally highlighted by other components of expenditure, which were weak, reflecting the recession conditions, but not spectacularly so – business investment fell 3.5%, including a fall of 6.8% in machinery and equipment and a partly offsetting rise in infrastructure investment; residential construction fell by 6.8%; and real estate activities fell by 18.6%.
Nevertheless we can expect that the lags from recessionary conditions in the June quarter will continue to impact business investment and housing for the remainder of the year.
Exports fell by 6.7% (including a 24.6% fall in travel services and a 46.6% fall in transportation services) while imports fell 12.9% as the international border closure triggered a 98.7% fall in travel services and a 32.9% fall in transportation services. Overall net exports contributed 1.0ppt to GDP growth.
The growth outlook for the remainder of the year will be dependent on the success which government achieve in containing the virus.
On the positive side we assess that the economy had considerable momentum going into the September quarter following the 4% snap back in hours worked in June and the lift in jobs in June and July. Of course that momentum was severely impacted by the deterioration in Victoria which represents around 24% of national GDP.
Our current figuring points to a flat quarter overall in September to be followed by a strong recovery in the December quarter. That recovery is dependent upon our base assumptions that Victoria will move through to a Stage2 in the December quarter while other states will avoid any damaging second waves.
As we have seen in today’s report the governments’ support packages have played a key role in containing the impact on household incomes from the containment policies. The December quarter will – on current policy settings – see a considerable scale back in that support affecting both households and business.
However, as demonstrated by the spike in the savings rate, the household balance sheet is in much better shape to cope with the partial withdrawal of the government payments.
The upcoming Federal budget, on October 6, provides the government with another opportunity to reassess and reset policy support. The annual Budget will undoubtedly be expansionary, the question is the degree of additional stimulus and the form that takes. The bringing forward of already legislated income tax cuts is an appropriate action in the current environment.
Overall we expect that the net positive effect of the general reopening of the state economies on the consumer sector, including relaxation of key state border restrictions will underpin a strong recovery in the December quarter.
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What does the record 7% collapse in GDP mean? Bill Evans

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose from –4.43% in June to –4.37% in July.
The Index growth rate remains in deep negative territory consistent with recession. However, it appears to have bottomed out in April at -5.61% and, without the recent disaster in Victoria, it seemed certain that the June quarter would have marked the low point in the growth cycle.
Victoria represents around 25% of national output. We expect the hard lockdown following the renewed virus outbreak to see the Victorian economy contract by 9% in the September quarter. That will offset the ongoing recovery we expect to be unfolding in other states as they continue to reopen, albeit at varying speeds.
For Australia overall, we expect growth in the economy to be flat in the September quarter before lifting by 2.8% in the December quarter on the assumption that Victoria moves through Stage 4 to Stage 2 and the other states avoid ‘second wave’ outbreaks.
The Leading Index growth rate has now lifted 1.24ppts out of what was a deep hole in April (growth relative to trend bottoming at –5.61%). That has been led by strong initial rebounds in two components: US industrial production (adding +1.75ppts) and hours worked (adding 0.78ppts). However, these gains have been materially offset by deteriorations in several other components, including: dwelling approvals (–0.47ppts); the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index (–0.43ppts); and the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Expectations Index (–0.31ppts).
Indeed, the three-monthly improvement would have been about double the size, and much more convincing, if it had not been for the renewed weakening in these other components. In the case of sentiment-based components, the weakness since April clearly captures the initial impact of the Stage 4 lockdown in Victoria – which saw a particularly disturbing nationwide drag on confidence in the August month.
Looking over the six months since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Index still shows a large, broad-based weakening. July’s growth rate is 3.26ppts below its February pace. Six of the eight components have driven the fall: US industrial production (–1.52ppts); aggregate monthly hours worked (–0.78ppts); the S&amp;P/ASX200 (–0.45ppts); dwelling approvals (–0.40ppts); and the two consumer sentiment based components (a combined–0.48ppts). Commodity prices (+0.14ppts) and the yield spread (+0.23ppts) have provided some slight offsets.
While we always provide this standard six month comparison the key in these extraordinary times is the lift we have seen since April, which is signalling some improvement, while noting the recent impact on confidence components in response to the Stage 4 lockdown in Victoria.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on September 1 and we can expect the Board to maintain current policies.
From a policy perspective the next major event will be the Commonwealth Budget which will be announced on October 6. Westpac expects the government will be committed to providing generous ongoing support to the economy. However, most of this support is likely to be of a non-recurring form including bringing forward the July 2022 tax cuts; one off payments; and infrastructure spending.
BILL EVANS is the <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/news/authors/bill-evans/" target="_blank">chief economist at Westpac</a>.
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Westpac's Melbourne leading index has bottomed out: Bill Evans

ASX-listed developer Cedar Woods is progressing its plans for its Southbank arts precinct site.&nbsp;

The developer has filed plans, which are now with the&nbsp;Department of Transport and Planning, for a new 20-level tower at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/141-151-sturt-street-southbank-vic-3006">141–151 Sturt Street</a>, a 2,718 sqm block opposite the Habitat Filter sculpture.

The proposal seeks to demolish the two-level&nbsp;commercial building, including a small supermarket and medical tenancies, and create a new building with 180 apartments and a focus on an&nbsp;active public realm and arts integration.

&nbsp;

<img alt="Southbank site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="76a72db6-91ef-43ae-827d-a9cfa72893d2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Site.png?VersionId=DZgtB4K6BswVh0QtCs3iLjXaLp0CbcEb" />

&nbsp;

There will be a full mix of apartment configurations, including 28 studio apartments, 16 one-bedroom, 104 two-bedroom, and 32 three-bedroom units.

Retail, creative arts, and residential amenity functions are integrated across the lower levels. A food and drink tenancy is planned to front Dodds Street, while a retail tenancy fronting Sturt Street will be accessed via an elevated walkway. The first floor includes a substantial 734 sqm creative arts space, envisioned to support Melbourne’s growing cultural and digital industries.

Architecture firm <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> has put together the plans. In their&nbsp;Urban Design Report they highlighted the project’s ambition to embed itself within Southbank’s evolving cultural fabric.

A central feature of the design is a through-block link connecting Sturt and Dodds Streets, landscaped with native plantings and embedded with universal access ramps.

“The ramp has been thoughtfully integrated as the primary access point, ensuring universal accessibility for all users,” the report noted, with the link offering “a direct response to the urban planning scheme of creating more green spaces within our communities”.

<img alt="Southbank podium" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="4d24b1b2-d69c-4a11-a11d-ec6df432221c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/podium.png?VersionId=geWoJyZDmPSLODZ_.PNJ0LvpOmyyCdpo" />

The building’s podium form responds to the mandatory height limits along Dodds Street and maintains a fine-grain interface to adjoining developments. Above the podium, the tower is articulated with recessed balconies and a focus on views toward the CBD and surrounding arts institutions. A communal rooftop recreation deck and indoor lounge are positioned on level four, adjoining seven apartments and providing over 900 sqm of resident amenity space.

Vehicle access and loading will be provided via Dodds Street, with 155 resident car spaces located across two basement levels and the first three above-ground floors. Bicycle storage is more generous, with 226 spaces distributed across resident, staff and visitor needs.

Rothelowman describes the architecture as “humanist,” with ground-level interfaces designed to encourage social interaction and provide a dignified entry for both residents and passers-by. “All street interfaces are crafted to invite and nurture human connections,” the design report states. “The façade transitions to a human scale, providing an approachable and engaging streetscape”.

Cedar Woods, while well-known for its large communities it develops outside of Australia's capital cities, they have recently developed in Melbourne's inner-ring before. They are approaching completion at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/88-leveson-north-melbourne-88-leveson-street-north-melbourne-vic-3051">88 Leveson</a>, just 15 townhouses in the heart of North Melbourne.

Joel Robinson

Cedar Woods progresses with new apartment plans in Southbank arts precinct

Brisbane developers Core Property Partners and Vector Property Australia has teamed up for Brisbane's newest apartment development.

The duo identified <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/east-brisbane-qld-4169">East Brisbane</a> as their preferred suburb, on the fringe of the Gabba Precinct, where they've just revealed BANKSII, 72 apartments opposite Raymond Park.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136432 project_image_fid=5481]

The one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments will sit in a glass-wrapped building that will also feature a rooftop with an&nbsp;infinity-edge pool, a BBQ area and alfresco dining spaces, sun lounges, and a sauna, as well as a resident-only gym and a ground-floor cafe.

Rhett Williams, Director of Vector Property Australia, said the project will lift the quality of the East Brisbane community and set a new benchmark.

"In Brisbane’s current property landscape, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/banksii-east-brisbane-169-wellington-road-east-brisbane-qld-4169">BANKSII</a> stands out through its emphasis on lifestyle-oriented living, connectivity and sophisticated design," Williams says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136432 project_image_fid=5479]

The 10-level building has been designed by MAS Architecture. Their designs were inspired by the native Banksia flower, with the architecture and interiors reflecting the organic symmetry of its namesake flora. MAS has interpreted this throughout the building’s curved form, façade detailing and interior palette.&nbsp;

The building’s flowing geometry and natural tones are complemented by large balconies and floor-to-ceiling glazing, maximising cross-breezes, daylight and views over the city, parklands and river.

“Having a strong narrative for a building helps us architecturally,” MAS noted. "We can choose colours that come off that species of flowers. The trunk and the trees and the flower elements all are now visible in our joinery on the inside and in our architectural finishes on the outside."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136432 project_image_fid=5485]

Apartments will feature timber floors, soft porcelain tiles, brushed bronze fittings, and stone benchtops with warm veining.&nbsp;

Kitchens feature premium SMEG appliances and generous storage, while bathrooms have been designed as calming retreats with curved cabinetry and twin sinks in the master ensuites.

The building will feature a suite of rooftop and wellness amenities. Residents will have access to an infinity-edge pool, BBQ and alfresco dining areas, sun lounges and a rooftop sauna.&nbsp;

A residents-only gym will be located on the podium level, while a ground-floor café and landscaped laneway will further activate the site and improve neighbourhood connectivity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136432 project_image_fid=5488]

BANKSII will rise from a prime Wellington Road site, with the building oriented to overlook the adjacent Raymond Park and take in extensive city views. It is also on the doorstep of key&nbsp;lifestyle infrastructure, including the future Kangaroo Point Green Bridge, The Gabba stadium, and the planned Brisbane Live arena.&nbsp;

Public transport options, including ferry, bus and rail - including the future Cross River Rail Woolloongabba station - are all nearby, supporting a car-optional lifestyle just minutes from the CBD.

Williams said the team spent over a year searching for the ideal site before securing this location.

"We were attracted to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/east-brisbane-qld-4169">East Brisbane</a> as it is a vibrant and growing community that offers a perfect balance of urban convenience and natural beauty with the parklands and river on our doorstep.”

The project is part of the broader Woolloongabba Games precinct, which is undergoing significant investment in the lead-up to the 2032 Brisbane Olympics. This urban renewal, coupled with infrastructure upgrades, is expected to enhance long-term liveability and capital growth in the area.

Given the wide max of configurations, BANKSII is expected to suit everyone from first home buyers and investors to families and downsizers.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=136432]

BANKSII sales launch in booming East Brisbane apartment market

The Minns Labor Government will deliver Sydney’s first new heavy rail station in more than a decade – enabling up to 10,000 new homes by rezoning land around Woollahra and Edgecliff stations, right next to the CBD, to tackle the housing crisis and rebalance growth across the city.

Recent reports by the NSW Productivity Commission have warned that Sydney is losing twice as many young people as it is gaining, while also finding that Woollahra is the most feasible Local Government Area (LGA) in New South Wales to build new housing.

Despite this, housing approvals in Woollahra consistently lag well behind other LGAs, and the population has declined by 11 per cent over the past 50 years while Greater Sydney as a whole has grown by 74 per cent.

The new station that will be an eight-minute trip from Sydney CBD, will be located on the Eastern Suburbs train line in Woollahra, where a station build was started in the 1970s but never completed.

To enable the delivery of new homes the NSW Government will lead a rezoning of Woollahra and Edgecliff stations similar to other state led rezonings to allow additional homes to be built around the stations.

Affordable housing will also make up a proportion of development on the site with the final amount of affordable housing required, to be determined as part of the rezoning process.

The area surrounding the new station is within walking distance of major green and recreational space including Cooper, Trumper, Rushcutters Bay and Centennial Parks.

The Eastern Suburbs train line between Bondi Junction and Sydney CBD also has the lowest passenger usage rates during the AM peak of any line on the Sydney network, with only 43 per cent of operating capacity during the AM peak currently being utilised by passengers.

Sydney Water and Infrastructure NSW have confirmed there is capacity in the water and wastewater systems to accommodate the proposed 10,000 dwellings without major upgrades.

The rezoning is expected to take around two years and will further support the Government’s housing targets that rebalance the delivery of new homes around existing infrastructure.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Next stop Woollahra train station - delivering up to 10,000 new homes in the heart of Sydney

<section data-element_type="section" data-id="b086848">
Fresh off completing its mixed-use Malvern project Malvern Collective, Kokoda Property Group has acquired a prime site on Richmond's Bridge Road.

They are planning a mid-rise residential development with&nbsp;integrated wellness amenities and a vibrant ground-floor retail and dining offering.

The site, at&nbsp;487–495 Bridge Road, spans&nbsp;1,650 sqm with 50 metres of dual frontage across Bridge Road and Palmer Street. It is currently leased to Adairs, and has a large retail building and 20 onsite car parks.
</section>

<section data-element_type="section" data-id="534a164">
Kokoda Property Group’s acquisition forms part of a broader phase of growth in Melbourne, building on momentum from the completion of Malvern Collective and the recent purchase of a Burnley Street site for the developer’s first commercial project.&nbsp;

Mark Stevens, Kokoda Property Group’s Founder and Managing Director, said that the company’s Bridge Road site acquisition signals confidence in a city that is re-accelerating.

“Melbourne is regaining momentum,"&nbsp;Stevens said.

"After a cautious period post-COVID, we’re seeing buyer sentiment stabilise and capital leaning back into well-located, quality projects. Victoria now benefits from deep builder capacity and competitive delivery pricing, creating a rare opportunity to bring design-led inner-city developments to market without compromising on craftsmanship.

“Richmond ticks all the boxes for us – connectivity, culture and everyday amenity – making Bridge Road the perfect address for an amenity-rich, multi-use development."

<img alt="Kokoda" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9a8de51d-8092-480a-8b7e-e081816692c2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-08-29%20at%208.54.27%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=VRHpV5.6beOu2cieKHWrw3ErMPuVOAuj" />

Envisioned as an “urban lantern” the building will bring a distinctive new presence to Bridge Road with a sculptural retail frontage, designed to honour the street’s heritage character while contributing to its renewal.

Stevens said the acquisition reflects the developer’s commitment to design-led addresses in Melbourne’s inner city.

“Drawing on Richmond’s rich heritage and dynamic character, we’ve envisioned a contemporary building that respects the past while elevating the way people live today. With dual frontages, curated ground-floor spaces, and a focus on wellness, this project will contribute to the neighbourhood’s evolution, appealing to both downsizers and a new generation of professionals.”

Kokoda Property will now progress concept design ahead of a future planning process.
</section>

Mark Stevens, Kokoda Property Group’s Founder and Managing Director, said that the company’s Bridge Road site acquisition signals confidence in a city that is re-accelerating

First look: Kokoda secures Richmond site for new apartment development

Gold Coast developer Drew Group is fast approaching sell-out at its Main Beach apartment development, Lagoon Main Beach.

In the last nine months, Drew Group and sales partner Pezet Matheson have secured 31 sales totalling over $75 million, as the two-tower development advances towards completion under the expert eye of Hutchinson Builders.

“Today's buyers are more discerning than ever," Drew Group Managing Director Jon Drew says.

"It's essential to provide something truly unique that sets a development apart, and we believe Lagoon has achieved just that."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108747 project_image_fid=193023]

Just over 50 per cent of recent&nbsp;sales have been to local buyers, reflecting the deep trust and connection within the Gold Coast community that Drew Group has developed over the years.

Demand has been particularly robust at the top end, with two of the three exclusive penthouses already sold, alongside five sub-penthouses. Only seven apartments remain in Lagoon's Signature Series — one&nbsp;penthouse and six sub-penthouses.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108747 project_image_fid=284864]

Drew Group has also removed the much-maligned sunset clause from all contracts at Lagoon. The sunset clause — although rarely invoked, yet on occasion known to have been — allows developers to take back contracts on apartments should the building not be completed within the timeframe specified in the contract.

Pezet Matheson Co-Director Jayde Pezet says the fact Lagoon is&nbsp;within a year of completion, and has no sunset clause in contracts, provides certainty to buyers.

"This is paramount in the current market," Pezet says.

Drew Group has committed to providing the highest level of security inclusions — none more impressive than the Ubiquity Access Control System, a cutting-edge facial recognition technology that is one of the most state-of-the-art keyless entry systems on the market.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108747 project_image_fid=190743]

One of the biggest drawcards to Lagoon has been the size of the apartments.

"It is unlikely that any future new development in Main Beach will be able to offer such spacious living at this price point," Drew says.

"Today's buyers are more discerning than ever, carefully evaluating amenities like gyms, spas, workspaces, and beach lockers, along with quality finishes. It's essential to provide something truly unique that sets a development apart, and we believe Lagoon has achieved just that."

Lagoon is set to complete construction in mid-2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108747]

Bill Evans

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