Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

Joel Robinson

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

&nbsp;

Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.

The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.

The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.

The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]

Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.

Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.

Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]

Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.

“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.

“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”

“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.” 
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]

The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.

Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.

The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.

The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]

Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.

“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.

“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”

A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.

That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.

The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]

According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.

Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.

The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.

The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.

That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.

The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]

The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.

“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.

“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”

The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]

Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.

The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.

Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]

Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.

Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.

“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.

He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.

“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.

“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.

Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.

Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.

Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.

The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]

Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more international and domestic flights.

Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.

Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.

The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.

The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" />

According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”

The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.

The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.

Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.

“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.

The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.

The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" />

The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.

“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.

According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.

“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.

“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”

The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.

Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.

&nbsp;

The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" />

St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.

Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.

The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.

More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.

First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

Westpac

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Westpac chief executive Brian Hartzer has rejected claims that the big four banks are worsening the housing price slump by cutting off credit.
"Let's be clear: we want to lend", Hartzer said in his opinion column in the Australian Financial Review.
"For Westpac, the recent decline in credit growth was due entirely to a reduction in new applications; average approved loans sizes actually increased slightly, while our approval rates remained unchanged".
"As to the perception that the royal commission has made banks scared to lend, for Westpac this is simply not the case", Hartzer said.
Hartzer did suggest the increase in scrutiny of customers' expenses and income, plus the building of additional buggers into loan serviceability calculations, had added to the time and cost of getting a loan.
"My view is that the housing market remains fundamentally sound and, overall, the adjustments are nothing to be alarmed about."
Median house prices in Sydney fell 10 percent in 2018, according to CoreLogic, while the second biggest capital housing market Melbourne saw 9.1 percent falls, accelerated in the latter part of the year.
Hartzer said the falls needed to be seen in the context of a 75 percent jump in Sydney prices between 2011 and 2017, and a 55 percent rise in Melbourne prices over the same period.
He cautions that investors have been given further "reason to pause", ahead of the looming general election and Labor's proposed tightening of tax breaks for negatively geared property.
He said "uncertainty around potential taxation changes relating to residential property" was weighing on demand from property investors while buyers were putting off decisions to buy, upgrade or invest until after the election. 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Westpac boss Brian Hartzer rejects blame for worsening housing price slump

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
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The December Quarter CPI printed 0.5%qtr, compared to the market median of 0.4% and Westpac’s forecast for 0.3%. At two decimal places, the rise in the CPI was 0.53%qtr, so a hard 0.5%. With base effects, the annual rate has eased back to 1.8%yr compared to 1.9%yr in Q3, 2.1%yr in Q2 and 1.9% in Q1. But with another sub 0.6% print, the six month annualised pace is down to 1.2%yr (using seasonally adjusted data – raw CPI six month annualised is 2.0%yr but this incorporates a seasonally stronger pace in H2). Inflation continues to bump along just at, or just under, the bottom of the RBA’s target band.
Following the December quarter 2017 CPI, we argued that searching for inflation in the Australian economy has been as fruitless as Vladimir and Estragon’s wait for Godot. While this report does suggest we have at least found a bottom in the disinflationary pulse, it is still too early to call an inflationary pulse is underway and there are some hints in the December 2018 report that the current scenario has much longer to run.
The average of the core measures, which are seasonally adjusted and exclude extreme moves, rose 0.4%qtr meeting market expectations. In the quarter, the trimmed mean gained 0.43% while the weighted median lifted 0.36%. The annual pace of the average of the core measures printed 1.8%yr which is the same as the September quarter print.
Incorporating revisions, the six month annualised growth in core inflation is 1.8%yr which is well below the bottom of the RBA target band and the slowest pace June 2016.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/JanFeb19/Dec2018CPI.jpg" alt="CPi">
<div>
A small number of upside surprises but nothing that changes the fundamental picture
</div>
Some standouts in the quarter – on the positive side there was a stronger rise in alcohol &amp; tobacco (3.2% vs 2.8% expected), a surprising rise in utilities (0.1% vs –0.3% expected), a smaller fall in auto fuel (–2.5 vs –4.2% expected), a surprising jump in household contents &amp; services (0.5% vs –0.5% expected) and a stronger bump in holiday travel (2.6% vs 1.6% expected all due to strong domestic holiday prices). On the downside, food rose just 0.9% (1.2% expected) due to a smaller than expected rise in fresh fruit &amp; vegetables, clothing &amp; footwear fell –0.2% (a small rise was expected). Everything else came in close to expectations or just slightly stronger.
We think is worth noting the continued modest gains for housing expenditure. Housing costs overall rose as expected (0.2%) rents rose 0.2% (we thought they would be flat), dwelling prices rose just 0.4% (as we expected) while utilities rose 0.1% vs our –0.3% expected. The surprise in utilities was the jump in electricity prices that outweighed the normal seasonal fall in gas prices. 
There remains a number of near term negative risks for both rents and dwelling purchase costs in NSW and Victoria. Given that rents and dwelling purchases are worth around 15% of the CPI on their own, this is significant for headline inflation, and even more so for core, where their weight is somewhat higher.
Tradables fell 0.3% in the December quarter. The tradable goods component fell –0.1% due to automotive fuel (-2.5%), audio, visual &amp; comp equipment (-3.3%) and wine (-1.9%). The tradable services component fell 0.7% due to international holiday travel &amp; accommodation (-0.8%).
Non-tradables component rose 0.9% in the December quarter. The non-tradable goods component rose 1.5%, due to the excise tax increase for tobacco (9.4%). The non-tradable services component rose 0.6%, due to domestic holiday travel &amp; accommodation (6.2%).
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/JanFeb19/DecCPIComp.jpg" alt="CPICop">
<div>
Low inflation remains embedded in the economy
</div>
For the first time in two years inflation forecasters have underestimated the quarterly rise in the CPI. Does this signal a turnaround and the return of a more sustainable inflationary pulse? We don’t think so. While there are some isolated inflationary pressures; tobacco prices are clear standouts as well as embryonic indicators that the disinflationary pulse in retail, particularly in the household goods &amp; services and domestic holidays &amp; travel, may be ending. But, we are still seeing weakness in clothing and footwear while the moderation in housing costs (rents and dwelling purchases in particular) is a significant offset. We are, however, watching the surprising bump in electricity prices to see if this continues.
As housing has a significant group weighting in the CPI (15%) it has a meaningful impact on the estimates of both inflation and core inflation. As such, with core inflation below the bottom of the RBA’s target band we can find little to suggest any risk of a meaningful acceleration.
Justin Smirk is senior economist at Westpac.
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An upside surprise but inflation remains well contained: Justin Smirk

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The ‘cautiously optimistic’ consumer mood that prevailed through 2018 has evaporated with sentiment beginning the new year with a slightly pessimistic view. At 99.6, the Index is below the 100 level, indicating that pessimists outnumber optimists, although only by a slim margin. This is the first time sub-100 reading from the survey since November 2017.
Confidence has come under pressure from a number of fronts including a continued slide in house prices; disappointing updates on Australia’s economic growth; ongoing concerns around global trade wars; and political uncertainty. Indeed, the continued optimism late last year was something of a surprise, implying the consumer mood was still getting considerable support from low interest rates, diminished fears of rate increases, a firm labour market, and at the margin, lower petrol prices. Other factors may also have weighed negative on sentiment in January including the Australian cricket team’s first domestic test series defeat to India.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/1/16/sentiment.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/16/sentiment.jpg" alt="">
The January sentiment fall is significant, marking the biggest monthly decline in over three years. January reads should be treated with some caution as the Index is adjusted to remove a regular boost to sentiment over the holiday season. However, even allowing for this, the update clearly marks a poor start to the new year. The Index is down 5.3% compared to this time last year.
All index components recorded declines with the biggest falls around expectations for the economy and assessments of current finances.
On the economy, the ‘economic outlook, next 12mths’ sub-index dropped 7.8%, the biggest fall since September 2015 when sentiment was hit by a sharp sell-off in financial markets and a disappointing update on Australia’s growth. The ‘economic outlook, next 5yrs’ sub-index also showed a sizeable 5.9% decline. Despite the weakening, both of sub-indexes remain comfortably above their long run average levels suggesting the economy is still a support for sentiment overall.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/Subscriber%20strip%20ad.jpg" alt=""></a>
Consumer views on family finances also recorded a poor start to the year. The ‘finances vs a year ago’ sub-index posted a sharp 5.9% decline taking it back to near 2018 lows. The sub-index tracking expectations for ‘finances, next 12 months’ recorded a milder 3.1% fall. Pressure on family finances remains a key weak spot for sentiment with both sub-indexes well below long run average levels. Slow wages growth and falling house prices remain significant headwinds.
Consumer attitudes towards major purchases were more resilient, the ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index dipping just 1.3%. However, this sub-index remains below average with the weak reads around family finances pointing to a continuation of the sluggish consumer spending growth seen through 2018.
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Matthew Hassan is a senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
 
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Consumer sentiment declines to lowest point since house prices declined: Westpac

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In 2017/18, real economic output grew by 2.8% nationally, accelerating from 2.3% in 2016/17, according to the latest State by State Growth Report from Westpac.
The NSW economy performed over the past four years with output growth averaging an above trend 3.1% - the strongest four year performance for the state since the late 1990s.
The report found: "output growth was 2.8% in 2014/15, surging to 4.0% in 2015/16 and then moderating to 3.1% in 2016/17 and 2.6% in 2017/18 particularly as housing has become less supportive."
By industry, agriculture, real estate and professional services led the growth moderation in 2017/18.
Construction added a 0.4ppts to growth with broad strength as investment responded to the growing needs of a rising population.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/22/WESTPAC%20NSW.JPG" alt="">
The Victorian economy has been performing strongly, in particular, driven by a population boom.
Output growth was 3.5% in 2017/18, matching the average for the past four years but down from on last year.
Andrew Hanlan, the report author, noted: "State demand grew to 4.7% in 2017/18, up from 4.2%, the fastest pace in a decade.
"On a per capita basis, output grew by 1.2% in 2017/18, in line with the national average.
"Construction remained a key growth driver."
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/22/WESTPAC%20NSW%202.JPG" alt="">
In Western Australia output bounced back from a 1.8% decline this year to grow by 1.9% this year.
The construction sector added 0.2ppts to activity in 2017/18, a turnaround from a 2.6ppts drag in 2016/17.
Mining output was a key growth driver, adding 0.8ppts, with new capacity coming on stream, according to the report.
"Consumer related sectors were subdued, significantly underperforming gains across the rest of the country as household incomes remained under pressure," Hanlan said.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/22/WESTPAC%20NSW%204.JPG" alt="">
The Queensland economy grew 3.4%, the strongest levels since 2011/12.
Construction added 0.4ppts to activity, a turnaround from a -0.1ppts impact in 2016/17 and from the sharp negatives in 2014/15 and 2015/16.
"srowth was broadly based across a range of business sectors, indicative of an improvement in underlying conditions," Hanlan said. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/22/WESTPAC%20NSW%203.JPG" alt="">
The South Australian economy expanded by 2.0%, slightly reduced on last year's 2.4% but in line with the long term average.
This is an improvement on the previous six years, when growth averaged just 0.9%.
Andrew Hanlan found: "the health sector added an exceptional 0.8ppts to activity, well above the national average (0.4ppts) boosted by the progressive roll-out of the National Disability Insurance Scheme.
"Construction advanced, +0.3ppts, after three years of modest negatives, with home building and business investment expanding," he added.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/22/WESTPAC%20NSW%205.JPG" alt="">
The 2017/18 year was a standout for Tasmania, with output growth of 3.3%, a doubling of the 1.5% rise in 2016/17 and the strongest post GFC result in a decade.
"Per capita output growth of 2.3% in 2017/18 was the envy of all other states," stated Hanlan.
"State final demand grew by 4.1% in the year, with broad based strength across the consumer, housing, business investment and public demand."
The health sector was a key growth driver, +0.7ppts.
Of the 19 broad industries, none were a drag on activity in 2017/18 - a relatively rare outcome, Hanlan said.
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How each state economy is performing: Westpac

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EXPERT OBSERVATION 
The expected bounce in employment appeared in the October Labour Force Survey with a 32.8k rise.
The market median was for 20k. However, just as we saw in September, the mix was again positive with a 42.3k rise in full-time and a small 9.5k decline in part-time employment. In addition hours worked rose 0.3% following on from a 0.4% gain in September.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/15/westpac%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/westpac%201.jpg" alt="">
 
Source: Westpac IQ
Perhaps more important is the continuation of the trend improvement in unemployment.
Sure, in the month unemployment was flat at 5.0%, but this is a good result seeing as the 0.3ppt drop in unemployment to 5.0% in September was due to a large drop in participation rather than a strong employment print.
As such there was always a risk the participation rate would bounce this month. Participation did rebound this month, but the 0.1ppt rise to 65.6% still left it under the 65.7% print in August.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/15/westpac%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/westpac%202.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac IQ
Last month suggested that you need to take a holistic view of the Labour Force Survey and accept that some of the monthly volatility is associated with the survey groups being rolled into, and out of, the sample. This meant that while the 5.6k print (revised to 7.8k) on employment was too soft compared to underlying momentum, the fall in unemployment to 5.0% was also too aggressive. As such Westpac was forecasting a bump in employment in October and also a rise in unemployment (to 5.1%).
The fact that employment had a robust rise in October, and the unemployment rate was flat due a modest rise in participation, suggests the trend decline in unemployment remains in place. We had been forecasting that unemployment would end the year around 5.1%. Based on the current trend, it is more likely to be around 5.0%, if not below. It is only our expectation for participation to drift back up to 65.60% (currently 65.56%) that is holding unemployment at 5.0% at year end.
In terms of risks for November, the ABS notes that the outgoing sample group has the same employment to population group as the sample average, so by itself, the rolling of that group will not impact employment. However, that same group has a higher unemployment rate compared to the sample average so rolling that group out will lower the sample average. All else held equal, this presents downside risk to our unemployment forecast for November.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/15/westpac%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/westpac%203.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac IQ
For a few months we have noted the robust labour market conditions in Victoria where unemployment had fallen to be almost on par with NSW (the national low for a large state). The last time this happened was when Victorian unemployment was on a rising trend. This matters because Victorian wages have been more responsive to changes in labour market conditions than the other states but especially compared to NSW. This month unemployment fell 0.1ppt to 4.5% in Victoria while it was flat in NSW at 4.4% (a 10 year low for this state). So Victoria continues to narrow the gap to NSW in terms of unemployment suggesting we need to keep a close eye on Victorian wages going forward.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/15/westpac%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/westpac%204.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac IQ
By state, the largest gains in employment were in NSW (+16.3k following +1.1k in September) while Victorian employment fell (–3.5k after a robust +20.7k). It is the ongoing trend decline in Victorian participation that has been a key driver of falling national unemployment hence we are a little nervous about following this trend to generate a sub 5% unemployment rate by end 2019. Victorian female participation has trended below female participation in NSW, a very rare event. In that regard, while we would expect to see female participation rise in Victoria, we have to acknowledge that female participation could ease in NSW from its current record high level.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/15/westpac%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/westpac%205.jpg" alt="">
Source: Westpac IQ
Employment fell again in Qld (–3.2k following –11.9k in September) and unemployment rose 0.3ppts to 6.3. Meanwhile, the recovery in the other mining state, WA, continues with a 3.1k lift in employment (+3.3k in September) while the unemployment rate fell again by 0.3ppt to 5.7%. This is the first time WA unemployment has been below 6.0% since January 2018.
Overall, we emphasise the need to look through the monthly volatility in the Labour Force Survey and focus on the broader trends in the labour market. The pace of employment growth has eased back from the 4.3%yr peak in 2017 to 2.5%yr in October and the six month annualised pace is also 2.5%. Both seem about right compared to leading indicators if you take into account the employment overshoot through 2017/2018. As such, while we do expect participation to trend higher, the rising trend in female participation may have come to an end (for now) just as male participation has stabilised.
The October survey is a sound update and it increases the risk that the unemployment rate could end this year with a 4 handle.
Justin Smirk is senior economist at Westpac.
You can find the complete chart pack <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2018/November/Labour-FI_chart_packOct18.pdf" target="_blank">here</a>. 
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Employment stats show continuing robust trend: Westpac's Justin Smirk

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Consumer sentiment has continued to recover from the mild setback in the September quarter.
The headline index remains 1.6% below its July peak but is now more comfortably above the 100 line, indicating optimists outnumber pessimists.
Indeed, while confidence may still not be particularly strong, there has been a clear improvement over 2018.
November marks the twelfth successive month that optimists have outnumbered pessimists contrasting with the previous twelve months when pessimism held sway for 11 out of 12 reads.
This is a surprisingly strong result. In particular, respondents are much more positive about their own finances.
That is despite consistent reports around weakness in the housing markets in the major capitals and the sharp falls in the equity market through October.
Low interest rates and their prospect of being sustained for some time are clearly supporting confidence.
For example, the confidence of those respondents with a mortgage increased by 4.3%. However, on a more cautionary note, measures of spending intentions have been weaker.
Four of the five index components recorded gains in November.
Assessments of family finances showed a promising rise, the ‘finances vs a year ago’ sub-index was up 4.9% to its highest level since early 2016.
The ‘finances, next 12 months’ sub-index rose by 3.2%. Consumers in NSW showed particularly strong gains, a somewhat surprising result given the continued correction in Sydney house prices.
Consumer expectations for the economy showed an exceptional rise in longer term expectations. This was supplemented by a positive for shorter term views as well. The ‘economic outlook, next 12 months’ sub-index posted a 1.7% rise, and, at 104.3, remains well above its long run average of 90.7
. The ‘economic outlook, next 5 years’ sub-index jumped 9.7% in November to reverse most of the sharp drop seen over the previous three months.
The wider consumer mood is more buoyant but attitudes towards spending are more downbeat. The ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index fell 3.5% in November, to an 18 month low.
Responses to our annual question on Christmas spending plans also point to a subdued near term outlook for demand.
A third of Australians expect to spend less on gifts than they did last year, with 56% expecting to spend about the same and just 10% expecting to spend more.
The net balance of ‘more minus less’ is marginally more negative than last year, and the weakest read since 2014. Despite the higher reads in overall confidence this question suggests that we are unlikely to see any improvement over last year’s lacklustre Xmas spend.
Labour market expectations improved a touch in November.
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Unemployment Expectations Index declined 1.9% (recall that lower reads mean more consumers expect unemployment to fall in the year ahead).
The index continues to show a clear 7.9% improvement on a year ago, led by Victoria where the state index has fallen 16.5%.
Consumer views around housing are very interesting. Buyer sentiment improved sharply but price expectations fell to new lows.
The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index posted a strong 11.8% surge to be up 16.7% on a year ago to the highest level since March 2015.
Consumers in NSW showed a particularly strong gain with a 26% jump taking the state index to a five year high and suggesting the decline in Sydney house prices is starting to generate some interest from buyers.
Because the NSW Index has been so low this stunning improvement only restores the Index to just below its long term average. The other state, Victoria, where prices have recently shown significant weakness improved only modestly with “Time to Buy” up only 3.3%.
Consumer expectations for house prices posted another fall in November.
The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations fell 2.3% to 99 – on a par with the weakest read we have ever seen on this index, when it was first compiled back in May 2009. T
he state detail continues to show particularly weak reads in NSW and Victoria, both hitting new lows in November with Victoria’s index down 25% over the last three months alone.
The house price corrections underway in Sydney and Melbourne now look to be firmly embedded in consumer expectations.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on December 4. The Reserve Bank recently released its November Statement on Monetary Policy. In the Statement it noted that “the Board does not see a strong case to adjust the cash rate in the near term”. That confirms that no move can be expected at that December meeting.
On the other hand the Bank raised its growth forecast for 2018 and maintained its above trend growth forecast for 2019. Furthermore, it lowered its unemployment forecast and slightly lifted its inflation forecast.
These moves could be interpreted that be Bank is more confident to raise rates during 2019. It is Westpac’s view that growth in 2019 will slow to 2.7% particularly under the weight of a weakening housing market; a contraction in construction; and a slowdown in jobs growth.
Today’s Consumer Sentiment Report portrays a more confident consumer than we had expected although this confidence is not boosting spending intentions.
Westpac continues to expect that the Reserve Bank will keep the cash rate on hold in 2018, 2019 and 2020.
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Solid lift in consumer sentiment: Bill Evans

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Credit growth has been slowing as the housing sector cools in response to tighter lending conditions.
However, in the September quarter, a burst of strength in the business segment provided some temporary respite.
Total credit grew by 0.4% in the month of September, including a 0.35% rise for housing and a 0.6% expansion in business
Annual credit growth is 4.6% currently, moderating from 5.3% a year ago. Housing growth has eased to 5.2% from 6.6% over this period. Business grew by 4.4% over the past year, up a fraction from 4.2% a year earlier. Personal credit continues to contract, down 0.9% in the year to September 2017 and falling by a further 1.5% over the past year.
Business credit remains volatile around a modest uptrend. The September quarter saw a brisk rise of 2.0%, up sharply from gains in the three previous quarters (0.9%, 0.8% and 0.6%). The pace of the past three months is unlikely to be sustained given the current economic and financial backdrop.
On housing, indicators point to a further cooling of conditions. House prices have turned, moving lower following a strong run, and dwelling approvals are down from the 2016 peak and are likely to move lower still after an extended upswing, to bring them more in line with underlying requirements.
Tighter lending conditions and rising funding costs will continue to weigh on the housing sector over coming months - recall that 3 of the 4 major retail banks raised mortgage rates over August and September.
Momentum in housing credit, as measured by 3 month annualised growth, has slowed progressively from a peak of 6.8% in May 2017 to be 4.7% currently.
Tighter lending conditions were largely directed at the investor market. The upshot is a marked slowing in investor credit growth. For the three months to September, investor credit almost stalled, advancing by only 1.4% annualised.
The slowing in the owner-occupier market has been less pronounced - but the trend is lower. The 3 month annualised pace for owner-occupier housing credit is 6.4% currently, a moderation from a peak of 8.7% last July.
Turning to business credit, this is volatile around a modest uptrend, as noted above. Annual growth is 4.4% currently - three months earlier it dipped to 3.2%.
In 2017, the business mood improved, mirroring the global trend. This has translated into an increase in business investment in the real economy by the non-mining sectors.
Currently, business credit growth is undershooting growth in non-mining business investment, the reverse of the experience in recent years, suggesting a greater reliance by businesses on other sources of funding, including retained earnings.
Andrew Hanlan is a Senior Economist for Westpac
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Credit growth slowing as housing sector cools, responding to tighter lending conditions: Andrew Hanlan

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EXPERT OBSERVER
It is hard to find signs of rising inflationary pulse
The September Quarter CPI printed 0.4%qtr, compared to the market median and Westpac’s forecast for 0.5%. At 2 decimal places the rise in the CPI was 0.44%qtr so a sound 0.4% but it was the third consecutive 0.4% print holding the six month annualised pace at 1.6%yr. With base effects, the annual rate has eased back to 1.9%yr compared to 2.1%yr in Q2, 1.9% in Q1 and 2017 Q4 and 1.8%yr in Q3. Inflation continues to bump along just at, or just under, the bottom of the RBA’s target band.
Following the December quarter 2017 CPI we argued that searching for inflation in the Australian economy has been a fruitless as Vladimir and Estragon’s wait for Godot. This has not changed as we are still waiting to see how long this record breaking performance can continue. There were some hints in the September suggesting this scenario has much longer to run.
The average of the core measures, which are seasonally adjusted and exclude extreme moves, rose 0.3%qtr meeting our expectations. In the quarter, the trimmed mean gained 0.37% while the weighted median lifted 0.28%. The annual pace of the average of the core measures printed 1.7%yr, a further deceleration from 1.7%yr in Q2 2018 and 2.0% in Q1.
Incorporating revisions, the six month annualised growth in core inflation is only 1.5%yr which is well below the bottom of the RBA target band and the slowest pace September 2016.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sept_OCt18/sept18CPIchart.JPG" alt="CPI " title="history">
Components of the CPI broadly as expected but some interesting surprises in the finer details
Some standout in the quarter – on the positive side there was a bump from food (0.5%),and surprising rise for clothing &amp; footwear (0.2% vs –0.3% expected), rising auto fuel (1.4%) and a larger than expected seasonal bump in holiday travel (3.3%). On the downside, the bump from tobacco was less than expected (just 1.8%) while health costs fell more than expected (–0.4%), car prices fell again (–0.1%) and the fall in household content &amp; services was larger than expected (–1.2%) with a larger than expected 12% fall in child care. We had highlight child care as a clear risk to our forecasts.
The most interesting new bit of information in the survey was for housing expenditure. While housing costs overall rose as expected (0.4%) rents rose 0.2% (we thought they would be flat), dwelling prices rose just 0.1% (we thought 0.4%) while utilities rose 0.8% vs our –0.4% expected. Overall the mix on housing is softer than expected as there are a number of near term negative risks for both rents and dwelling purchase costs in NSW and Victoria. Given that rents and dwelling purchases are worth around 15% of the CPI their own this is significant for headline and inflation even more so for core where their weight is somewhat higher.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sept_OCt18/Sep18CPIcontribs.JPG" alt="CPI " title="contribs">
Tradables rose 0.8% in the September quarter. The tradable goods component rose 0.4% due to automotive fuel (1.4%), fruit (2.4%), furniture (1.9%), and vegetables (1.6%). The tradable services component rose 4.0% due to international holiday travel &amp; accommodation (4.3%).
Non-tradables rose 0.3% in September quarter. The non-tradable goods component rose 0.5% due to tobacco (1.8%), beer (0.9%) and takeaway &amp; fast foods (0.7%). The non-tradable services component rose 0.1% due to domestic holiday travel &amp; accommodation (2.4%) and property rates &amp; charges (2.3%).
Low inflation remains embedded in the economy
We have now two consecutive years where forecasters have over-estimated the CPI print. The average error since the December quarter 2016 is +0.14ppt. Core inflation came in below expectations (0.3%qtr vs 0.4%qtr expected) but there error on core inflation is more random and does not have a consistent bias. The average error on core since December 2016 is just 0.006ppt. So analysts are broadly getting the core inflation pulse corrected but are still underestimating the disinflationary pulse which has seen greater than usual discounting in some sectors \which are then trimmed out of the core measures.
There are some isolated inflationary pressures; rising petrol and tobacco prices are clear standout as well as embryonic indicators that disinflationary pulse in retail may be easing but the moderation in housing costs (rents and dwelling purchases in particular) are a significant offset. This is significant as this group weighting means it has a meaningful impact on the estimates of both inflation and core inflation. As such, with core inflation well below the bottom of the RBA’s target band we can find little to suggest any risk of a meaningful acceleration.
Our preliminary estimate for the 2018 Q3 CPI is 0.7%qtr which will see the annual pace lift a touch to 2.0%yr as the recent rise in petrol prices makes a larger contribution in the December quarter. We are also expecting a modest recovery in dwelling purchase prices. Under our current scenario, even with a modest lift in housing costs and rising fuel prices inflation, inflation is expected to be at, or just under, 2.0%yr all the way out to end 2019.
On a festive note the ABS reports that this is the 70th birthday of the CPI in it’s current form – the index has quarterly history that goes back to the September quarter 1948.
Justin Smirk is a Senior Economist at Westpac
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2d373e; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Fira Sans', 'Droid Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">
<h1 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 36px; margin: 18px 0px; color: #621a4b; font-family: ChronicleSemibold, 'Times New Roman', Times, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Fira Sans', 'Droid Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; line-height: 1.1;">It is hard to find signs of rising inflationary pulse</h1>
</div>
<p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2d373e; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Fira Sans', 'Droid Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">The September Quarter CPI printed 0.4%qtr, compared to the market median and Westpac’s forecast for 0.5%. At 2 decimal places the rise in the CPI was 0.44%qtr so a sound 0.4% but it was the third consecutive 0.4% print holding the six month annualised pace at 1.6%yr. With base effects, the annual rate has eased back to 1.9%yr compared to 2.1%yr in Q2, 1.9% in Q1 and 2017 Q4 and 1.8%yr in Q3. Inflation continues to bump along just at, or just under, the bottom of the RBA’s target band.
<p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2d373e; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Fira Sans', 'Droid Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">Following the December quarter 2017 CPI we argued that searching for inflation in the Australian economy has been a fruitless as Vladimir and Estragon’s wait for Godot. This has not changed as we are still waiting to see how long this record breaking performance can continue. There were some hints in the September suggesting this scenario has much longer to run.
<p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2d373e; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Fira Sans', 'Droid Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">The average of the core measures, which are seasonally adjusted and exclude extreme moves, rose 0.3%qtr meeting our expectations. In the quarter, the trimmed mean gained 0.37% while the weighted median lifted 0.28%. The annual pace of the average of the core measures printed 1.7%yr, a further deceleration from 1.7%yr in Q2 2018 and 2.0% in Q1.
<p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2d373e; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Fira Sans', 'Droid Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">Incorporating revisions, the six month annualised growth in core inflation is only 1.5%yr which is well below the bottom of the RBA target band and the slowest pace September 2016.
<p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2d373e; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Fira Sans', 'Droid Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sept_OCt18/sept18CPIchart.JPG" alt="CPI " title="history" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%;">
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2d373e; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Fira Sans', 'Droid Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">
<h1 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 36px; margin: 18px 0px; color: #621a4b; font-family: ChronicleSemibold, 'Times New Roman', Times, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Fira Sans', 'Droid Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; line-height: 1.1;">Components of the CPI broadly as expected but some interesting surprises in the finer details</h1>
</div>
<p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2d373e; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Fira Sans', 'Droid Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">Some standout in the quarter – on the positive side there was a bump from food (0.5%),and surprising rise for clothing &amp; footwear (0.2% vs –0.3% expected), rising auto fuel (1.4%) and a larger than expected seasonal bump in holiday travel (3.3%). On the downside, the bump from tobacco was less than expected (just 1.8%) while health costs fell more than expected (–0.4%), car prices fell again (–0.1%) and the fall in household content &amp; services was larger than expected (–1.2%) with a larger than expected 12% fall in child care. We had highlight child care as a clear risk to our forecasts.
<p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2d373e; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Fira Sans', 'Droid Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">The most interesting new bit of information in the survey was for housing expenditure. While housing costs overall rose as expected (0.4%) rents rose 0.2% (we thought they would be flat), dwelling prices rose just 0.1% (we thought 0.4%) while utilities rose 0.8% vs our –0.4% expected. Overall the mix on housing is softer than expected as there are a number of near term negative risks for both rents and dwelling purchase costs in NSW and Victoria. Given that rents and dwelling purchases are worth around 15% of the CPI their own this is significant for headline and inflation even more so for core where their weight is somewhat higher.
<p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2d373e; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Fira Sans', 'Droid Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/Sept_OCt18/Sep18CPIcontribs.JPG" alt="CPI " title="contribs" style="box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%;">
<p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2d373e; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Fira Sans', 'Droid Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">Tradables rose 0.8% in the September quarter. The tradable goods component rose 0.4% due to automotive fuel (1.4%), fruit (2.4%), furniture (1.9%), and vegetables (1.6%). The tradable services component rose 4.0% due to international holiday travel &amp; accommodation (4.3%).
<p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2d373e; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Fira Sans', 'Droid Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">Non-tradables rose 0.3% in September quarter. The non-tradable goods component rose 0.5% due to tobacco (1.8%), beer (0.9%) and takeaway &amp; fast foods (0.7%). The non-tradable services component rose 0.1% due to domestic holiday travel &amp; accommodation (2.4%) and property rates &amp; charges (2.3%).
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2d373e; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Fira Sans', 'Droid Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">
<h1 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 36px; margin: 18px 0px; color: #621a4b; font-family: ChronicleSemibold, 'Times New Roman', Times, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Fira Sans', 'Droid Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; line-height: 1.1;">Low inflation remains embedded in the economy</h1>
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<p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2d373e; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Fira Sans', 'Droid Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">We have now two consecutive years where forecasters have over-estimated the CPI print. The average error since the December quarter 2016 is +0.14ppt. Core inflation came in below expectations (0.3%qtr vs 0.4%qtr expected) but there error on core inflation is more random and does not have a consistent bias. The average error on core since December 2016 is just 0.006ppt. So analysts are broadly getting the core inflation pulse corrected but are still underestimating the disinflationary pulse which has seen greater than usual discounting in some sectors \which are then trimmed out of the core measures.
<p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2d373e; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Fira Sans', 'Droid Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">There are some isolated inflationary pressures; rising petrol and tobacco prices are clear standout as well as embryonic indicators that disinflationary pulse in retail may be easing but the moderation in housing costs (rents and dwelling purchases in particular) are a significant offset. This is significant as this group weighting means it has a meaningful impact on the estimates of both inflation and core inflation. As such, with core inflation well below the bottom of the RBA’s target band we can find little to suggest any risk of a meaningful acceleration.
<p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2d373e; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Fira Sans', 'Droid Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">Our preliminary estimate for the 2018 Q3 CPI is 0.7%qtr which will see the annual pace lift a touch to 2.0%yr as the recent rise in petrol prices makes a larger contribution in the December quarter. We are also expecting a modest recovery in dwelling purchase prices. Under our current scenario, even with a modest lift in housing costs and rising fuel prices inflation, inflation is expected to be at, or just under, 2.0%yr all the way out to end 2019.
<p style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #2d373e; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Fira Sans', 'Droid Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">On a festive note the ABS reports that this is the 70th birthday of the CPI in it’s current for – the index has quarterly history that goes back to the September quarter 1948.
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It is hard to find signs of rising inflationary pulse: Westpac's Justin Smirk

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Dwelling approvals rose 3.3% in September, reversing part of the 13% slide over the previous two months but with the monthly move a touch below the consensus expectations of a 3.8% rise.
Despite this, the detail was weak. The monthly gain centred on the famously volatile high rise unit segment, which had fallen sharply over the previous two months. The September high rise bounce was also heavily concentrated in Victoria. Approvals outside of this narrow state segment were significantly weaker (our estimates suggest total dwelling approvals ex Vic high rise were down about 7.5%).
Private detached house approvals declined 2.7% to be down 7.3% since June – a significant shift for what is usually a more stable segment.
Private units in total posted a 9.2% bounce, retracing some of the 20% decline over the previous two months. With-in this, ‘high rise’ approvals jumped 40-50% although this looks to be exaggerated by seasonal adjustment. A sharp fall in 'medium density' partially offset the gain.
By state, the Vic recorded an outsized 30.5% gain but was softer ex high rise (we estimate down 2.3% in seasonally adjusted terms). The other major states recorded big falls, NSW down 6.8%, Qld down 10.5% and WA down 19%.
The total value of renovations edged up 0.8%, the slight trend decline over the first half of the year showing signs of leveling out. Notably, trend approvals in NSW and Vic are down 7.6% since the start of the year.
The total value of non res building approvals declined 3.8%. Trends remain difficult to pick out due to high volatility but the segment looks to be tracking lower in most states.
Overall, the headline gain in dwelling approvals this month is a 'head fake'. Excluding a sharp spike in Vic high rise, something that is very unlikely to sustain, reveals a fairly broad based picture of weakness. Tightening credit conditions are clearly impacting both residential and non residential sectors. The pace of decline remains hard to pin-point but building activity is more clearly tracking towards a contraction in activity heading into 2019.
Matthew Hassan is a Senior Economist for Westpac
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Matthew_Hassan-HHWHptmrw4

Australian dwelling approvals had an unconvincing bounce: Matthew Hassan

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Unemployment fell to a six year low of 5% in September. If you look at the labour market holistically, the large monthly drop looks like survey volatility rather than a new lower trend. Nevertheless, it is our view that the labour market is sound and that unemployment has been trending down.
Westpac forecasts the unemployment rate to hold above 5% to end 2018 before a soft patch in the June quarter 2019 (due to both election uncertainties and correction to the 2017/2018 strong patch) will lift unemployment to 5.3%. Once past the soft patch, steady employment growth will take unemployment back down to 5.0% by end 2019 and 4.8% by end 2020. 
We use business and household surveys to guide our near term employment forecasts while our medium term profile is driven by our fundamental view on household demand, services exports and non-mining investment.
Our participation forecasts are dynamic responding to changes in employment growth. The forecasts are, however, bound by the assumption that participation will not hit a new record high.
Household and business surveys guide the near term
When forecasting the near term pace of employment growth we use the labour market indicators from the household and business sentiment surveys.
From the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Survey there is the question on household unemployment expectations (do they expect unemployment to rise or fall?) which has a good fit with the momentum in the labour market. Unemployment expectations have risen modestly (households expect unemployment to rise a little thus a softening in the labour market) but still holding a historically robust level. However, employment overshot unemployment expectations through the second half of 2017 so an undershoot through to the mid 2019 would be a normal course of events.
The multiple business surveys in Australia have questions that are applicable to the labour market. To generate a broad, deep labour market indicator, Westpac compiles all the relevant indicators from these surveys into the proprietary Westpac Jobs Index from which we generated a simple model of annual employment growth. It is true that the Jobs Index is more stable than the annual pace of employment growth but we have found it provides a useful guide on both the near term pace of employment growth and, more importantly, major turning points. Currently the Jobs Index is pointing to employment growth of 2½%yr. Actual employment growth in the second half of 2017 overshot the jobs index. Looking ahead we expect employment growth to undershoot the job index through to early 2019.
Using these indicators we expect the pace of employment growth to hold around current levels through to the end of the first quarter of 2019. This will see the annual pace dip to around 2% by end 2018 which is softer than what our indicators are suggesting in response to our allowance for some employment undershoot following the 2017 overshoot.
Looking further out household demand and non-mining investment drive our forecasts
<div>Looking further out our fundamental economic view defines our employment profile. There are various indicators you can use to do this, and multiple ways to generate a model, but we have found that simple models based on well understood measures best suit our needs for a 'not-just-reliable' guide but also one that is simple to understand and explain. The two economic fundamentals we use are adjusted household demand (which is household consumption, housing activity – both dwelling construction and renovations – and net services exports) and non-mining business investment.Annual growth in adjusted household demand peaked at 4.4% in the second half of 2015 before slowing to 2.2% in the first quarter of 2018. We have found that the growth in adjusted household demand has a two quarter lead on quarterly growth in employment. Again, as we saw with the near term employment leading indicators, employment growth has outpaced our adjusted household demand model's estimates, stretching from 2017 Q2 to 2018 Q1. As such, our forecasts incorporate a period of employment undershoot before returning to fundamentals in the last quarter of 2018. By end 2018 our model suggests employment should be growing a little more than 20k per month on average.Non-mining investment staged a relatively modest recovery lifting to almost 8%yr in the March quarter from where we are forecasting the pace to flatten to around 0%yr in early 2019. The recent peak is quite modest compared to what was seen back in the late 1990s and the first half of the 2000s when the pace often peaked around 20%yr. Nevertheless, the recent increase does point to a very modest near term lift in employment growth through 2018 before it slows in late 2019. And there is also the issue of the 2016/2017 overshoot. Given the expected correction, we see employment through to the end of the first half of 2019 undershooting the model's estimate (an average monthly gain of around 25k). </div>
Participation has peaked, for now, but will recover as employment recovers
Once you have an employment profile, an estimate of participation is required to round out the forecasts. As readers would be aware, the strong employment growth through 2017/2018 did not lead to a large fall in unemployment as participation lifted from an October 2016 low of 64.4% to a January 2018 high of 65.8%. In the September Labour Force Survey, the fall in the unemployment rate to 5.0% was supported by a sharp 0.24ppt dip in participation to 65.44%. The all time record high in participation was 65.79% in November 2010. It recently hit 65.78% in January 2018.
There are two factors to consider in regards to participation. The structural longer run issue, such as rising female participation, education, aging population etc and the short-run dynamics where participation rises and falls with employment. In the long-run the cross currents of rising female participation and declining male participation (associated with an aging population - for now females are pushing out their age of retirement so the aging population is not a net negative for them) suggests we may have past a medium term peak in participation. Our forecasts focus on the short-run dynamics of participation associated with employment bounded by our view we have seen a structural peak.
A further reason to be cautious about lifting the participation rate back to record peaks is the observation that the recent improvement in male employment has not produced the lift in male participation that it has in the past. In fact while annual growth in male employment has lifted, the annual change in male participation has moderated.  On this basis the participation rate drifts up a little through to the first quarter of 2019, before it drifts down a little as employment slows, limiting the rise in unemployment to 5.3%. Through the second half of 2019 and into 2020, employment lifts to an around trend pace and the participation rate continues to drift higher but remains short of the most recent peak of 65.78%.
Unemployment set to drift down to less than 5% by end 2019 while the rise in employment to population will remain shy of a new record high 
Once you have an employment and participation profile you can generate a profile for the unemployment rate and, as a cross check, an employment to population profile (including population estimates). Our forecasts result in the unemployment rate rising to a peak of 5.3% in the June quarter of 2019 before easing back to 5.0% year end then trending down to 4.8% by end 2020. The employment to population rate dips a little from 62.2% to 62.1% by the June quarter 2019 before entering a trend rise to 62.6% by end 2020. While not returning to the previous peak of 62.9% (August 2008) employment to population rises over this period highlighting that an employment pace of 2% is slightly faster than our current estimate of population growth.
Justin Smirk is a Senior Economist for Westpac
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