Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

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The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Wages Growth

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<div>Wages grew by just +0.48 per cent in the September 2017 quarter, to be +2.01 per cent higher over the year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Superficially this looks like a bit of an improvement, and at least it can be said that wages are growing a bit ahead of the rate of inflation. Just. </div>
 
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<div>And including bonuses the annual increase was a slightly more upbeat +0.7 per cent for the quarter, and +2.2 per cent for the year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, the result this quarter was pumped up by the minimum wage increase, and you can see in the chart below that a number of industries (such as accommodation &amp; food) how this inflated the quarterly numbers. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the year the industries with the most robust wage price growth included healthcare &amp; social assistance (+2.7 per cent), arts &amp; recreation services (+2.7 per cent), and education &amp; training (+2.4 per cent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the other hand wages growth in the mining sector (+1.2 per cent) remains very low, as it does in professional, scientific, &amp; tech services (+1.5 per cent). </div>
 
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<div>Annual wage price growth in the private sector remains super-low at just +1.86 per cent, with wage price growth in the public sector some way higher at +2.37 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The public sector index has outpaced the private sector since the peak of the resources construction boom. </div>
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 Resources states slow
<div> </div>
<div>At the state level Queensland, Victoria, and Tasmania each recorded wages growth of +2.2 per cent, while New South Wales (+2.1 per cent) also recorded reasonable growth. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, there were considerably weaker results in Western Australia (+1.3 per cent) and the Northern Territory (+1.4 per cent). </div>
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<div>Western Australia recorded the fastest pace of wages growth through the mining boom, but is now coming back to the pack. </div>
 
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 The wrap 
<div>Overall, while it's positive to note annual wages growth moving a bit higher and ahead of the rate inflation, in reality this was a very soft result which missed expectations, having been puffed up by the minimum wage increase. Not much in the way of pre-Xmas cheer to be found here! </div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Wages growth at snail's pace: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER<a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com/2019/02/vic-closes-in-on-full-employment" style="font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"> </a>
<div id="post-body-310214148269562303" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>Wages tick along</div>
<div> </div>
<div>More wages weakness reported in the December 2018 quarter, though I doubt it'll be enough to move the needle for the Reserve Bank's view too much. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Wages growth was +0.6 per cent for the private sector, and +0.6 per cent for the public sector, seasonally adjusted, decimal point quibbles aside. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Annual growth in private sector wages of +2.29 per cent was still plenty slower than in the public sector at +2.53 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, this was the 'fastest' annual pace of growth in private sector - if you can justifiably use the word fast in this context - in the four years since December 2014.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And it's also well ahead of headline inflation, which could feasibly sink to just 1½ per cent next quarter on lower fuel prices. </div>
 <div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nBZjMNpaef8/XG0O7o2sr4I/AAAAAAAAulA/VZ8K7fIX80EqIqcd4CJw4MWLe2mV9yFEwCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-nBZjMNpaef8/XG0O7o2sr4I/AAAAAAAAulA/VZ8K7fIX80EqIqcd4CJw4MWLe2mV9yFEwCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="352" data-original-height="791" data-original-width="1436"></a></div>
 <div>As noted here previously (h/t Justin Smirk, Westpac) Victoria has been creating a thunderous volume of job openings and is nipping along nicely towards full employment, so wages will almost certainly pick up here. </div>
 <div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MkBSZfoxosY/XG0O8haXWeI/AAAAAAAAulI/oH4WaHmCGAAdtoZwbf9GSyZRrOTO1xxdQCLcBGAs/s1600/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MkBSZfoxosY/XG0O8haXWeI/AAAAAAAAulI/oH4WaHmCGAAdtoZwbf9GSyZRrOTO1xxdQCLcBGAs/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1348"></a></div>
 <div>Indeed, at the state level for all sectors Victoria (+2.7 per cent) and New South Wales (+2.4 per cent) have accounted for most of the improvement since the nadir, while sprightly Tasmania (+2.6 per cent) is resurgent from a low base. </div>
 <div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kOwyXgYwYH8/XG0O7pPxALI/AAAAAAAAulE/FB4OU2W9HY8VVAIUx81m-k742UxlNDErQCLcBGAs/s1600/A2.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kOwyXgYwYH8/XG0O7pPxALI/AAAAAAAAulE/FB4OU2W9HY8VVAIUx81m-k742UxlNDErQCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="1393"></a></div>
 <div>Not much joy here in Western Australia, though we should acknowledge that WA has seen by some margin the greatest increase in wages over the past two decades, so a bit of post-boom payback was perhaps due. </div>
 <div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OhfQGmdLmDE/XG0O7stD8dI/AAAAAAAAuk8/GXmnh0QeLxgHwBqZiLw-Lg_0WGNeBgGPgCLcBGAs/s1600/A3.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OhfQGmdLmDE/XG0O7stD8dI/AAAAAAAAuk8/GXmnh0QeLxgHwBqZiLw-Lg_0WGNeBgGPgCLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="820" data-original-width="1371"></a></div>
 <div>At the industry level the strongest wages growth was seen in healthcare and social assistance (+2.8 per cent), and electricity, gas, water, and waste (+2.8 per cent), while the weakest growth was in IT &amp; Telcos (+1.6 per cent). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The wrap</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
Still pretty sluggish overall, but skilled job vacancies came in at a near 7-year high today, so there's still probably just enough evidence that the jobs market might pull through, provided credit flows a bit more freely in 2019. 
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. </div>
</div>
<div class="post-footer"> </div>
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More wage weakness but VIC close in on full employment

jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Strong employment not leading to improved unemployment or wage growth: RBA's Guy Debelle

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Declining union membership is unlikely to be responsible for low wage growth, a research discussion paper from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has suggested.
The report, entitled Is Declining Union Membership Contributing to Low Wages Growth?, was authored by RBA economists James Bishop and Iris Chan looked at micro data, covering all enterprise agreements federally registered between 1991 and 2017.
It set out to test whether the hypothesis that the decline in union membership since the 1950s caused a fall in the bargaining power of workers, which in turn has contributed to low wages growth in recent years.
However, the report found that is unlikely that recent low wages growth is a result of changing unionisation patterns.
“First, there has been no decline in the share of employees covered by enterprise agreements negotiated with union involvement even as union membership has declined,” the report stated.
“Second, the ‘union wage growth premium’ in the private sector has been stable over time.
“Third, spillover effects from union involvement in enterprise agreement negotiations onto wage outcomes in other enterprise agreements exist, but have not changed materially over time.”
The full report is available to read <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2019/pdf/rdp2019-02.pdf">here</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Declining union membership not the cause of low wages growth: RBA

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Labor is promising a “living wage” rather than a “minimum wage” if elected.
It will ask the Fair Work Commission to first determine what wage would offer a “<a href="https://brendanoconnor.com.au/news/latest-news/labor-will-make-sure-the-minimum-wage-is-a-living-wage/" target="_blank">decent standard of living for families</a>”, and then to determine the time frame over which it should be phased in, taking into account the capacity of businesses to pay, and the potential impact on employment, inflation and the broader economy.
It is selling the idea of what would be a very big increase on the present minimum wage as “good for workers and good for the economy”.
“Consumer spending makes up 60% of the Australian economy,” its employment spokesperson Brendan O'Connor said. “When low-paid workers get a pay rise, they spend it in the local shops and help small businesses. It’s good for everyone.”
The idea harks back to the 1907 <a href="http://worksite.actu.org.au/the-harvester-judgement-and-australias-minimum-wage/" target="_blank">Harvester judgement</a>, in which an arbitration court judge decreed that wages at a Melbourne factory should be based on the cost of living “for a worker and his family”.
To get there from the current bare minimum wage of A$18.93 per hour would almost certainly require increases bigger than the sum of productivity growth and inflation, which are running at a combined annual rate of around 3%.
Unacknowledged by Labor in spruiking the policy this week was the fallacy of its consumer spending argument, the cost of the proposal to jobs, and the likelihood that it won’t much help many of the people who need it.
The false increased spending argument
One of the claimed benefits of a living wage is that employees will spend most of their extra income, resulting in large increases in national spending, national income, and even the tax take.
An implicit assumption is that the extra money comes “as manna from heaven” with no second-round effects.
But given that other labour costs won’t come down (it is hard to see executive pay being cut), the labour cost for each affected business will climb, pushing down returns to the providers of capital, including the returns to shareholders and small business owners.
With lower returns, less capital will be put up to invest.
Where businesses can, they will pass on the increased costs not matched by increased productivity by increasing prices.
They will get away with it unless they face competition from imports or other exporters.
Where import competitors and exporters face international competition, they will reduce output. In turn, the greater amount of money sent out of the country will eventually push down the Australian dollar, pushing up the Australian dollar price of import and export products.
In the short term, the increases in prices of goods and services will cut the purchasing power of the wage increase. In the longer term, it might create a vicious cycle of wage and price hikes, with adverse economic consequences.
The bad news on jobs
It is well established that wage increases above the rate of productivity growth plus inflation lead to less employment than there would otherwise be, in both the number of employees and the hours worked per employee.
Labour costs are a major expense for most businesses.
In response to higher labour costs, many employers will choose less labour-intensive ways of making their products. The large and rapid wage increases in the mid-1970s and early 1980s resulted in sharp reductions in employment. In contrast, the recent low rates of labour cost increases have helped drive significant increases in employment and a fall in unemployment.
With the Australian economy facing a likely slowdown over the next year or two, a large increase in wages might be particularly poorly timed.
The false hope for those most in need
Universal education and health care, and the redistribution of income via social security payments funded by a progressive income tax, are the most direct and effective ways to fight household poverty.
The world today is very different to the world of the Harvester case in 1907. Then, most workers were in full-time employment and needed a living wage to support a family. Now, about a third are employed part-time. Redistribution via the tax and payments system is how we support families who need it.
A higher minimum or “living wage” would provide minimal assistance to some on low incomes, and would lift the incomes of many others not generally considered in need of support.
Many of those below the poverty line who are only employed part-time or not at all would not be lifted out of poverty. A higher living wage would provide more to those already in full-time jobs than it would to part-time workers.
And it would provide more to low-wage employees who are members of high-income families, who probably shouldn’t be our first concern.
We can do more more directly to alleviate poverty by reforming the income tax and social security systems. They are specifically designed to redistribute income according to need.
We should start by reducing income tax on low earnings, automatically indexing tax brackets, and increasing Newstart.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114359/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
John Freebairn, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Melbourne
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-false-hope-offered-by-talk-of-a-living-wage-114359" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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The false hope offered by talk of a living wage: John Freebairn

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GUEST OBSERVATION
For the past half-decade Australian wages have barely moved after adjusting for inflation.
In the United States the picture is far bleaker — the real wages of average workers have changed little <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/" target="_blank">in 40 years</a>.
Not so for US chief executives.
In 1965 the heads of America’s 350 biggest companies earned 20 times what the average worker did. By 2017 they earned <a href="https://www.epi.org/files/pdf/152123.pdf" target="_blank">312 times as much</a>.
As is often the case, things aren’t quite as extreme in Australia, but the pattern is similar. In 2017 the heads of the 100 biggest ASX-listed companies earned an average of <a href="https://www.acsi.org.au/images/stories/ACSIDocuments/generalresearchpublic/CEO-Pay-in-ASX200-Companies-2017.Jul18.pdf" target="_blank">A$4.75 million</a> – roughly 78 times as much as the average worker.
They get the bulk of their income not from their salaries, but from stock options or payments tied to the share price of the companies they run.
It at least raises the possibility than one way to get pay to rise for average workers is to structure their pay a little more like that of chief executives.
There are upsides to paying workers in shares…
Paying workers in the stock of the company would not affect the day-to-day profitability of the company. It would just mean the shareholders owned a bit less of the company.
That might not sound like an important distinction, but the everyday costs —- of which wages and salaries can be a big part -— help determine how competitive a firm is compared to its rivals. Paying workers in stock could give firms a strategic advantage.
It could also better align their interests with those of senior management and shareholders. It could reduce intra-firm conflict about wages, benefits and employment terms.
One manifestation occurs when executives receive large payouts from stock options while “ordinary workers” are facing redundancies or pay cuts.
Giving workers a slice of the same type —- if not the same level -— of compensation could help reduce this conflict.
…and downsides
If the idea was perfect, we would go to the extreme and pay workers exclusively in stock.
We wouldn’t, in part because equity-based compensation imposes risk on workers, as workers employed by firms whose share price is falling know well.
A basic principle of contract theory – the field that gave rise to the 2016 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for its creators Oliver Hart and Bengt Holmstrom – is that if a compensation contract imposes more risk on an employee than wages, it’ll need to be larger than wages on average to make up for the additional risk. It would cost the firm more.
And it would encourage workers to put most of their investment eggs in one basket (the same basket that employs them), which is always a bad idea.
Despite appearances, for many or even most, it woudln’t link their efforts to their compensation. Stock price movements often have little to do with the efforts of paper-shufflers or cleaners. Another key principle of contract theory is that it is suboptimal to reward workers for luck.
Shadow equity might be better
New developments in blockchain technology offer a way to link the efforts of employees to an equity-like security —- or what one might call “shadow equity”.
<a href="https://bitcoin.com.au/understanding-token-sales-initial-coin-offerings-part-1/" target="_blank">Initial Coin Offerings</a> are used in the US as an alternative to venture capital. They involve creating a digital currency that is linked to performance but not to share price.
They can be used to invest in or bet on specific components of a company. Take the pharmaceutical giant Pfizer. It has a whole portfolio of drugs. Buying stock in Pfizer is a bet on its entire portfolio. But suppose Pfizer issues, say, 1 million Xtandi tokens to help it develop the colon cancer drug Xtandi. Suppose it also agrees that all future purchases of Xtandi will have to be done with those tokens. That would link the aggregate value of those tokens to the value of revenue from the drug.
An investor who bought those tokens would be betting on a specific part of Pfizer’s portfolio.
The idea could be extended to traded securities tied to a granular level of performance within an organisation. It wouldn’t mean it was possible to have securities in the impact of single worker (expect perhaps for superstars such as actors or recording artists) – but it would be conceivable to have such securities for divisions of companies, or even teams within divisions.
How could it work?
It will take time for these technological developments to play out, but there are steps we could take to hasten it. One would be increased tax deductibility for equity-based compensation.
We are not suggesting workers’ pay be cut to allow equity-based compensation, or that it not rise to keep up with the cost of living. But as extra pay rises happen from time to time, they could be offered in the form of shadow equity.
It would mean workers would be paid (at least in part) the same way as executives. And it might start to reverse the trend of rising executive to worker pay ratios.
<hr>
The <a href="https://www.assa.edu.au" target="_blank">Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia</a> is one of Australia’s four learned academies. The ASSA coordinates the promotion of research, teaching and advice in the social sciences, promotes scholarly cooperation across disciplines, comments on national needs and priorities in the social sciences, and provides advice to government on issues of national importance.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113362/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Rosalind Dixon, Professor of Law, UNSW
Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/introducing-shadow-equity-a-fresh-idea-to-escape-the-low-wage-trap-113362" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Introducing shadow equity: a fresh idea to escape the low wage trap

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The long debate over the causes of wage stagnation took an unexpected turn last week, when Finance Minister Matthias Cormann described (downward) flexibility in the rate of wage growth as “<a href="https://www.magic1059.com.au/news/national-news/88452-low-wage-growth-not-all-bad-minister" target="_blank">a deliberate design feature of our economic architecture</a>”.
It was a position that was endorsed in a flurry of confusion <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/sixteensecond-backflip-turns-interview-into-trainwreck/news-story/fe62507c8e961d6381f510133cd68563" target="_blank">16 seconds after it had been rejected</a> by Defence Industry Minister Linda Reynolds.
Cormann had said policies aimed at pushing wages up could cause “massive spikes in unemployment”.
The ease with which Reynolds was trapped into at first rejecting and then accepting what her ministerial colleague had said flowed from the fact that Cormann had broken one of the standing conventions of politics in Australia, and for that matter, the English-speaking world.
For more than forty years, both the architecture of labour market regulation and the discretionary choices of governments have been designed with the precise objective of holding wages down.
These policies have been quite successful, as can be seen from the graph.
However, at least until recently, there has been bipartisan agreement on at least one aspect of them – that no one should mention their role in holding back wages.
<hr>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264070/original/file-20190315-28499-eksq75.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264070/original/file-20190315-28499-eksq75.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5206.0" target="_blank">ABS Australian Accounts, seasonally adjusted</a>
<hr>
Instead, the decline in the wage share of national income has been variously blamed on:
<ul>
<li>technology</li>
<li>immigration</li>
<li>imports from China and, more recently,</li>
<li>the end of the mining boom.</li>
</ul>
None of these explanations stand up to scrutiny.
The idea that technology is driving the wage share down is perhaps the most popular.
But technological change has been continuous, if uneven, since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century. Most of the time, workers have shared in the resulting productivity gains.
There have however, been a number of exceptional periods in which workers have been harmed.
They have been times when the balance of power had favoured employers. At those unusual times, any kind of disruption, whether caused by new technology or not, has had the potential to enable employers to break working conditions and cut wages.
Right now, for example, there is no necessary reason for the ability to do business over the Internet to harm workers. In many ways it empowers workers by reducing the information advantages of big employers.
But in an environment where unions are weak and working conditions are vulnerable to erosion, the outcome is firms like Airtasker, where workers bid against each other to perform outsourced tasks, <a href="https://theconversation.com/all-care-and-no-responsibility-why-airtasker-cant-guarantee-a-minimum-wage-76943" target="_blank">often for less than the minimum wage</a>.
There is nothing new about this kind of working arrangement.
It could be seen outside the wharves on Sydney’s “<a href="https://theconversation.com/all-care-and-no-responsibility-why-airtasker-cant-guarantee-a-minimum-wage-76943" target="_blank">Hungry Mile</a>” in the 1930s, where workers went from wharf to wharf each day hoping for work, or today on street corners in the United States, where (often undocumented) construction workers gather in the mornings hoping to be picked for work.
But if technology isn’t to blame, what is?
The overlong shadow of the overhang
The real story begins in the early 1970s, when there was an upsurge in inflation associated with the breakdown of the post-war <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system" target="_blank">Bretton Woods</a> system of fixed exchange rates , and soaring prices in commodity markets including that for oil. The result was a “wage-price spiral” as both wages and prices rose at unexpected annual rates of more than 10%.
In a nation with a history of strong trade unions, decades of full employment, and the boundless faith in the future forged by the 1960s, wages grew faster than prices as both spiralled upwards.
By the time rising unemployment began to bite, and inflation slowed down, the wage share of national income had risen to an unprecedented 62%.
Reining in this “<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1988/pdf/rdp8806.pdf" target="_blank">real wage overhang</a>” became the central preoccupation of macroeconomic policy throughout the 1970s and 1980s.
This made sense at the time. But, as in other fields, ideas formed in the 1970s and 1980s continued to dominate the thinking of policymakers long after they had either been proven to be failures or rendered obsolete by changing circumstances, as was the case with policies designed to hold back wages.
The policies had several elements. There were a series of changes in industrial relations law, most of which have attacked unions and weakened the bargaining power of labour.
The Fraser government introduced Sections 45D and 45E of the Trade Practices Act <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2004A02274" target="_blank">banning secondary boycotts</a>, that is, action in solidarity with other workers. Fraser also created the Industrial Relations Bureau, the first of a series of industrial “police forces”.
On its election in 1996, the Howard government introduced the <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2006C00104" target="_blank">Workplace Relations Act 1996</a> which extended scope for non-union agreements. After winning a Senate majority in 2004, Howard introduced <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WorkChoices">WorkChoices</a> which limited the scope of collective bargaining, and wound back protections against dismissal.
The Industrial Relations Bureau maintained at least a pretence of impartiality. By contrast, the organisations created by the Abbott and Turnbull governments (the Registered Organisations Commission and Australian Building and Construction Commission) have been so nakedly anti-union that they have repeatedly <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/politics/police-wanted-to-prosecute-over-awu-raids-leak-senate-estimates-hears-20190218-h1bdmu">broken the law</a> <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-13/abcc-nigel-hadgkiss-resigns-over-breach-labor-pressures-cash/8942558" target="_blank">they are supposed to uphold</a>.
Labor governments have wound back some of the most extreme measures, but have not changed the general direction of policy.
Even measures that appeared superficially favourable to workers turned out differently. For example, in 1993 the Keating government introduced the concept of “protected industrial action”.
It was some time before it became apparent that the result was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2015/mar/16/industrial-action-is-at-near-record-lows-but-businesses-will-still-blame-unions" target="_blank">to abolish any general right to strike</a>, something that exists in almost every other democratic government.
As Minister for Workplace Relations, Bill Shorten introduced measures that were pitched as protecting penalty rates through a review process undertaken by the Fair Work Commission. A few years later, in a highly politicised process, the Commission <a href="https://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2017/02/23/fair-work-commission-review-penalty-rates" target="_blank">used the process to cut penalty rates</a>.
Coalition governments have also used the power of the state directly against unions. Notable examples include the string of <a href="https://www.royalcommission.gov.au/royal-commission-trade-union-governance-and-corruption" target="_blank">royal commissions</a> created by the Abbott government and the use, in 1998, of ex-military strikebreakers to break the Maritime Union of Australia. Their training and deployment was facilitated by a government consultant who <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/technology/battle-on-the-waterfront-20070512-ge4vby" target="_blank">worked with the major waterfront employer, Patricks</a>.
orchestrating the offshore training of the replacement workforce through the actions of consultant Stephen Webster and other shadowy ex-military figures.
Finally, macroeconomic management has operated on the basis that any increase in wages is a danger signal requiring a tightening of fiscal and monetary policy. A notable example, was the warning by then Employment Minister Eric Abetz in January 2014 months after taking office that Australia faced a “<a href="https://ministers.jobs.gov.au/abetz/industrial-relations-after-thirty-years-war-address-sydney-institute" target="_blank">wages explosion</a>”.
<hr>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264082/original/file-20190315-28483-4y15qz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264082/original/file-20190315-28483-4y15qz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
 <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6345.0" target="_blank">ABS Wage Price Index</a>
<hr>
Far from “exploding”, wage growth slid and hasn’t recovered.
More striking than his failed prediction, was Abetz’ assumption, taken for granted in policy debate, that any substantial increase in wages would be disastrous.
It is only in the last few years that this assumption, inherited from last century, have been challenged.
The Reserve Bank in particular has become an advocate for higher wage growth.
Yet as Cormann’s incautious outbreak of truthtelling has shown, the view has yet to percolate through to Australia’s elites.
<hr>
John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ultra-low-wage-growth-isnt-accidental-it-is-the-intended-outcome-of-government-policies-113357" target="_blank">original article</a>.
The <a href="https://www.assa.edu.au" target="_blank">Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia</a> is one of Australia’s four learned academies. The ASSA coordinates the promotion of research, teaching and advice in the social sciences, promotes scholarly cooperation across disciplines, comments on national needs and priorities in the social sciences, and provides advice to government on issues of national importance.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113357/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
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Ultra low wage growth isn’t accidental - it is the intended outcome of government policies

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The good news is that wages growth has continued to lift from its 2016 low point of 1.9% year on year. However, the lift in wages growth largely owes to a faster increase in the minimum wage for 2017-18 of 3.3% which was up from 2.4% for the previous year and now to a rise of 3.5% for this financial year. Were it not for the acceleration in minimum wage increases, wages growth would still be running at around 2%, so there is still little evidence of significant pick up in underlying wages growth.
Fortunately at least the uptick in wages growth to 2.3% when inflation is just 1.9% means that real wages growth is at least positive. That said at 0.4% year on year real wage growth is still very small and won’t provide much of a boost to consumer spending.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/15/wages.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/wages.jpg" alt="">
Source: ABS, AMP Capital
Falling unemployment should help contribute to a pick-up in wages growth but with the level of unemployment and underemployment remaining very high at 13.3% it’s still hard to see a significant acceleration in wages growth. To get wages growth up to a more reasonable 4% probably requires labour market underutilisation to fall to around 10% at least.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/15/underemployment.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/underemployment.jpg" alt="">
Source: ABS, AMP Capital
In other data released today, consumer confidence for November rose 2.8%, with news of lower unemployment and falling petrol prices possibly offsetting news of falling home prices. It’s still stuck in the same range it’s been in all year though. Against this the NAB business survey showed a slight fall in business confidence in October, with both consumer and business confidence running around similar levels which are around or a bit above long term averages.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/15/consumer%20confidence.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/11/15/consumer%20confidence.jpg" alt=""> 
Source: NAB, Westpac/MI, AMP Capital
Implications
While it’s good to see wages growth up from its lows two years ago, beyond an acceleration in the minimum wage, which affects about 20% of the workforce, we are yet to see a meaningful pick up in underlying wages growth. This is a drag for consumer spending and will help keep inflation stuck around the low end of the 2-3% inflation target.
As result we remain of the view that the RBA won’t start raising interest rates until 2020 at the earliest and given the housing related downturn there is a significant chance that the next move could turn out to be a rate cut – although this would be unlikely before second half next year as it will take a while to change the RBA’s relatively upbeat thinking on the economy and rates.
With the Fed hiking and the RBA on hold (or maybe even cutting at some point) the Australian dollar still has more downside.
SHANE OLIVER is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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Consumer confidence up but business confidence down: Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Households are feeling the pinch from frozen wages feeds into slower economic growth, and policymakers need to find a solution. 
<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/rbas-philip-lowe-says-australians-fear-foreigners-and-robots-20170619-gwtr20" target="_blank">The crisis really is in real wage growth.</a> – Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe, 2017
Increased inequality and low wage growth are constraining economic growth. But why is wage growth so low? And how should policymakers respond?
<a href="https://wir2018.wid.world/" target="_blank">Income inequality has increased significantly</a> in most advanced economies since the early 1980s. In particular, very low rates of wage increase are widely blamed for the weak growth in aggregate demand this century and <a href="http://larrysummers.com/2016/02/17/the-age-of-secular-stagnation/" target="_blank">secular stagnation</a> since the Global Financial Crisis. The GFC was itself brought on by the rise in consumer debt that was used at first to support demand in an attempt to offset the impact of weak wage growth.
Fairfax columnist Ross Gittins recently <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/with-wage-growth-on-the-blink-it-s-time-to-restore-union-bargaining-power-20180727-p4ztym" target="_blank">noted</a> that “many economists were disappointed by this week’s news … that consumer prices rose only 2.1%”. That was because low inflation is “usually a symptom of weak growth in economic activity and, in particular, of weak growth in wages”.
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Thus, today it is widely agreed that wages need to increase faster. The <a href="http://www.oecd.org/social/in-it-together-why-less-inequality-benefits-all-9789264235120-en.htm" target="_blank">OECD</a>, the <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/02/" target="_blank">IMF</a>, leading US scholars, former US Treasury Secretary <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2016-02-15/age-secular-stagnation" target="_blank">Larry Summers</a>, Nobel prize winner <a href="http://evonomics.com/joseph-stiglitz-inequality-unearned-income/" target="_blank">Joseph Stiglitz</a> and most recently Stephen Bell and I in our book, <a href="https://www.mup.com.au/books/9780522872279-fair-share" target="_blank">Fair Share</a>, have all argued that increasing inequality is bad for economic growth.
To solve this problem, the critical issue for policymakers is what is causing this rising inequality and weak wage growth? Unless we better understand the causes, we are unlikely to achieve an effective policy solution.
First, we can quickly dismiss the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/am/treasurer-says-tax-cuts-for-big-business-will-boost-wages/9399324" target="_blank">explanation offered</a> by federal Treasurer Scott Morrison, whose so-called “economic plan” assumes present low wage growth will respond positively to higher company profits. According to Morrison, a company tax cut will lead to more investment and thus more jobs, so eventually the benefits will trickle down and increase wages.
Unfortunately, this logic is the reverse of reality. It ignores the evidence that slow wage growth across all the developed economies has been a problem over a couple of decades now.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232195/original/file-20180816-2924-1yqkxof.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232195/original/file-20180816-2924-1yqkxof.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Slow wage growth is a continuing long-term problem in the developed economies.<a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/"> </a>
In fact, the evidence strongly suggests higher profits will not drive higher wages. The benefits of a company tax cut will largely be returned to shareholders, while the only wages that increase will be those of senior management.
Instead, higher investment will require increased consumer demand. And that in turn depends on stronger wage growth. In short, aggregate demand in a flat economy, like ours, is wages-led. Wages drive investment, not the other way around.
Broadly speaking, there are two serious schools of thought about what is causing weak wage growth and rising inequality.
One explanation puts most of the blame on a weakening of trade-union power.
The other explanation emphasises the impacts of technological change and, to a lesser extent, globalisation on the labour market. Together technology and globalisation are said to have changed job structures and demands for skills. They have reduced the share of middle-level jobs, which has directly increased income inequality, and they can depress the demand for labour more generally and thus wages in developed countries, but especially for less skilled labour.
These two explanations are not mutually exclusive – both may have played a role. However, I want to consider their relative significance as the basis for arguing which policy responses should be given priority.
Trade union power in Australia and its impact
A very distinguished professor of labour economics and former Industrial Relations Commission deputy president, Joe Isaac, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-8462.12270" target="_blank">recently argued</a> persuasively that an important explanation of slow wage growth is “to be found in the change in the balance of power in favour of employers and against workers and unions”.
Isaac starts by noting that union membership in Australia has fallen from about 50% of all employees in the 1970s to the present 15%. This is one of the lowest rates in the OECD.
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Isaac also finds some correlation between income inequality (measured by the Gini coefficient) and trade union density for 11 OECD countries. More relevant, though, would be the change in inequality relative to the change in union membership, especially as Australia has always had a relatively high Gini coefficient.
Isaac argues that this loss of membership and the reduced authority of the Fair Work Commission has weakened the bargaining power of organised labour in Australia. Employers are now able “to determine no wage increase or an increase less than their profits would warrant, with less resistance from workers and unions”. Although Isaac admits that “this conclusion is based on the association over time of union power decline and slow wages growth”, he concludes that “it seems reasonable to claim, at least prima facie, a causal connection between them”.
I am more sceptical. While I wouldn’t rule out any impact on wages and employee conditions from a decline in trade union membership and the possibly associated changes in the power of the Fair Work Commission, I question Isaac’s analysis for the following reasons.
First, it is uncertain how much trade union power has declined as a result of loss of membership. Another test of trade union power is the proportion of wages determined by awards and collective agreements – as Isaac shows, this proportion has largely remained the same in Australia. Indeed, in some countries, such as France, trade union membership has always been very low, but they have a highly centralised system of wage determination, which allows the unions a lot of influence.
Second, other countries have also experienced increases in inequality – much greater than in Australia in most cases – but don’t seem to have experienced any notable loss of union power. For example, some of the biggest increases in inequality over the last 30 years, as measured by the Gini coefficient for final disposable income, have <a href="https://data.oecd.org/inequality/income-inequality.htm" target="_blank">occurred in countries like Sweden, Finland and Germany</a>, which are not associated with any loss of trade union power.
Third, Isaac’s analysis of wage inequality focuses entirely on a decline in the wage share of total <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/factor-income.asp" target="_blank">factor income</a>. This ignores changes within the distribution of earnings. These latter changes are more important in many countries, and certainly for Australia.
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While the wage share in Australia has declined since the 1970s and early 1980s, this was at least partly a result of deliberate policy under the Hawke/Keating governments’ Accord with the trade unions, when it was accepted that the wage share had been too high. Even today the <a href="http://ace2017.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Declan-Trott-Full-Paper.pdf" target="_blank">wage share is still higher than in 1960</a>, when the economy was generally considered to be performing exceptionally well.
Fourth, the changes in the distribution of earnings largely reflect changes in the structure of occupations rather than changes in relative wage rates. But trade unions seek to influence wage rates, and it is difficult to see how they can exert much direct influence over the structure of jobs.
For these various reasons, I don’t think the loss, if any, of trade union power can explain much of the increase in inequality in most countries over the last 30 years. It is necessary to look elsewhere for the explanation, and the main driver seems to have been the impact of technological change.
Impacts of technology and globalisation
In <a href="https://www.mup.com.au/books/9780522872279-fair-share" target="_blank">Fair Share</a>, Stephen Bell and I examine the causes of increased inequality over the last 30 years in most of the advanced economies. A critical starting point is to distinguish between changes in the job structure and changes in relative wage rates. As we <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=CwtNDwAAQBAJ&amp;pg=PT135&amp;dq=%22no+change+in+relative+wage+rates,+but+employment+increased+faster%22&amp;hl=en&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=0ahUKEwjo7u3o7evcAhUI7bwKHTz_AO4Q6AEIJzAA#v=onepage&amp;q=%22no%20change%20in%20relative%20wage%20rates%2C%20but%20employment%20increased%20faster%22&amp;f=false" target="_blank">note</a>:
Even if there were no change in relative wage rates, but employment increased faster for both high-paid and low-paid jobs, the earnings distribution would show up as more unequal. What would have happened is that the composition of the top and lowest deciles of earnings would have altered, which would increase the median income of the top decile and reduce the median income of the lowest decile, which would in turn be reported as an increase in the inequality of earnings.
The consensus in the studies we reviewed is that increased inequality of earnings largely reflects the impact of technological change. Globalisation and increased participation in global value chains may also have played a role, but less so in Australia, which we attribute to Australia having a more flexible labour market than, say, America.
We also surmise that <a href="https://theconversation.com/finance-drives-everything-including-your-insecurity-at-work-101107" target="_blank">increased financialisation</a> and the capture of rents generated by technological change may help explain the very large increase in remuneration for the top 1%.
Interestingly, the OECD specifically rejected the hypothesis that regulatory changes have helped drive any significant increase in inequality. It <a href="http://www.oecd.org/els/soc/dividedwestandwhyinequalitykeepsrising.htm" target="_blank">found</a> that “the net effect of regulatory reforms on trends in ‘overall earnings inequality’ remains indeterminant in most cases”.
The principal impact of technological change, and globalisation to a lesser extent, has been to reduce the share of middle-level jobs. In particular, new <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/view/1314" target="_blank">information</a> and <a href="http://ceda.com.au/Research-and-policy/All-CEDA-research/Research-catalogue/Australia-s-future-workforce" target="_blank">communications technology</a> has had its <a href="http://www.urbanvillageworld.com/resource_center/Offshoring%20Article%20-%20Foreign%20Affairs1.pdf" target="_blank">greatest impact</a> on <a href="http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2017/04/04/world-economic-outlook-april-2017" target="_blank">relatively routine tasks</a> <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://ideas.repec.org/p/mlb/wpaper/1192" target="_blank">involving middle-level jobs</a>, such as clerical occupations and the operation of basic machinery.
Technological change has also driven the fall in the relative price of capital goods. This has led to some substitution of capital for labour. Again, this is “particularly pronounced in industries with a high predominance of routine tasks”, as the <a href="http://www.oecd.org/els/oecd-employment-outlook-19991266.htm" target="_blank">OECD notes</a>.
These changes in job structure and the relative decline in the middle-level jobs have been the most important cause of increasing inequality in many countries, including Australia. Technological progress has also led to an increase in the demand for skills. In some countries that has increased the premium paid for skilled labour, but the extent of this depends upon the policy response affecting the supply of skills.
In Australia’s case, Bell and I <a href="https://www.mup.com.au/books/9780522872279-fair-share">find</a> that the premium for skills, and consequently relative wage rates, did not change much because of the increase in education and training effort. Accordingly, much of the increase in earnings inequality in Australia reflects changes in the job structure rather than changes in relative wage rates (see also <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-8462.2003.00296.x" target="_blank">Keating</a> and <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://ideas.repec.org/p/mlb/wpaper/1192" target="_blank">Coelli &amp; Borland</a>).
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So what does this mean for policy?
Consistent with his view that a weakening of trade union power has driven the increase in inequality, Isaac <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-8462.12270">recommends</a> changing the Fair Work Act to rectify “the unbalanced industrial power in the labour market”. I can support most of Isaac’s recommended changes, and especially greater rights of union entry, which should help better police adherence to awards and wage agreements.
I also agree that Isaac’s recommended legislative changes are unlikely to result in unions abusing their increased power. This is because, as he puts it, “there are now prevailing forces, such as global competition and structural changes, which will continue to keep union power in check”.
However, these “prevailing forces” are what really caused most of the increase in inequality, as discussed above. I therefore doubt that these legislative changes will do much to reverse the increase in earnings inequality.
Instead, the best way to respond to the impact of technological change on the job structure and possible associated changes in wage premiums is to improve education and training. Enhanced education, training and labour market policies will help workers adjust to the challenges posed by new technologies and will also spur the adoption of those technologies.
In addition, if the supply of skills thereby increases in line with the increase in their demand, there should not need to be any change in relative wage rates. Although these types of reforms take time, in the end they can boost both aggregate demand and potential output, with benefits all round.
In short, as Thomas Piketty, in his <a href="http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674430006" target="_blank">major study on inequality</a>, <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=T8zuAgAAQBAJ&amp;pg=PA313&amp;dq=%22the+best+way+to+increase+wages+and+reduce+wage+inequalities%22&amp;hl=en&amp;sa=X&amp;ved=0ahUKEwiepIuH--vcAhVEVLwKHa5_D6EQ6AEIJzAA#v=onepage&amp;q=%22the%20best%20way%20to%20increase%20wages%20and%20reduce%20wage%20inequalities%22&amp;f=false" target="_blank">concluded</a>:
To sum up: the best way to increase wages and reduce wage inequalities in the long run is to invest in education and skills.
Michael Keating<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/michael-keating-528224"></a>, Visiting Fellow, College of Business &amp; Economics, Australian National University
This article was originally published on The Conversation. 
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