Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Sydney Property

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The outgoing RBA Governor Glenn Stevens says the entry hurdles for first home buyers "may be getting worse."
He suggests it was likely parental assistance was "almost the only way" for some to enter Sydney market, in an exclusive interview with The Australian and The Wall Street Journal.
"I think that a lot of people of my generation are actually going to find themselves, if they haven't already, helping their children into the housing market because that may be almost the only way that their children can enter the Sydney market anyway," he said. 
"That, of course, means that for people of my age, that the wealth we think we have in our house, actually, we don't have quite as much as we thought because we're going to have to give some of it to the next generation."
The 58-year old suggests that there are a lot of generational issues in the housing area that need resolving.
"I think that's actually a bigger question than questions like is there a bubble or not, that sort of thing that people tend spend a lot of time be debating.
"That said its hard to be that cohort about trying to enter the market, there's always been a hurdle.
"It may be getting worse, but there's a lot of things happening here, about where we want to live and how far out we want to live," he said.
"There are decision about zoning, transportation, infrastructure, and all those sorts of things that go to make up what's I think a pretty complex problem." 
Stevens suggested that you need to own a home to pass the equity.
"Of course if we come from a rental household ourselves then we're not going to have that equity to pass to the next generation and certain types of disadvantaged therefore are going to be perpetuated into that next generation," he said.
"A bit of food for thought, but I don't have the answers to all these problems," he advised.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Glenn Stevens says FHB hurdles maybe getting worse - parents help likely only way to enter Sydney property market

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GUEST OBSERVER
Office metro markets, like CBD markets, are driven by factors which differ from state to state and region to region, so any discussion of a ‘national’ metro market only serves to mask the various drivers of each of these markets. 
There’s no question that long-overdue Infrastructure investment along the eastern seaboard will be the primary driver of growth in metro markets in the coming decade.
According to Colliers Metro Office Research and Forecast Report- first half 2016, over 33 buildings in Sydney’s metro markets will be compulsorily acquired for the Metro Rail, putting downward pressure on vacancies and upward pressure on rents. In fact, many metro markets are now at a tipping point, with the first real opportunity since the GFC to experience significant growth.
But where will the positive effects be most strongly felt?
NSW is where the strength is
At the moment, the NSW state economy is the strongest in the nation, with robust employment growth and a healthy surplus. It is also the hub for infrastructure development, with projects like the Sydney Metro, WestConnex and the Parramatta Light Rail set to come online in the next 10 years.
The most recent state budget revealed a total spend of $68.6 billion over the next four years alone, a very positive scenario for those metro markets in line to receive infrastructure upgrades.
This is because efficient transport links allow for greater connectivity across all metro markets, and in turn, increase the attractiveness of metro accommodation to a broader tenant base.
In further good news, the stock withdrawal story we are seeing in the Sydney CBD market holds true in a number of other NSW metro markets. Colliers reports that between January 2015 and January 2016, metro office stock decreased Australia-wide from 7.34 million sqm to 7.29 million sqm as a result of withdrawal for residential conversion or infrastructure development.
As the same time, we have not seen the same influx of offshore money into these markets as we have in the major CBD office markets. With offshore investors continuing to favour CBDs, investors in metro markets are still predominately domestic. The proportion of domestic investors, compared with international investors is continuing to grow with Colliers reporting that domestic investors made up 55 percent of the acquisitions in 2013, 60 percent in 2014 and 65 percent in 2015.
Centuria’s ASX-listed Metropolitan REIT invests purely in metropolitan office and industrial assets across Sydney, Brisbane, Canberra and Adelaide. These assets have been valued at $396.7 million. Decreasing vacancies and increasing values have seen this fund trading well amongst both institutional and retail investors, highlighting the investor appetite for metro investment.   
Sydney’s north shore metro markets set to shine
In our view, some of the strongest metro markets are to be found on Sydney’s north shore, where the positive combination of residential conversion with acquisitions made for Metro stations will translate into improved vacancy and rental levels in the next few years.  
For example, fifteen commercial properties will be demolished along the north shore, in to make way for the Sydney Metro. At the same time, all new development is focused on residential accommodation, and with no new commercial development slated we expect a further tightening of supply and upward pressure on commercial rents.
As a result of the positive fundamentals, Centuria recently completed the purchase of part of the Zenith office tower in Chatswood, an area which we see as a major beneficiary of the Sydney Metro. Stage 1 from the northwest to Chatswood is scheduled for completion in 2019, and the second stage from Chatswood to the southwest via the CBD will put Chatswood right at the heart of Sydney’s transport network.
The most recent PCA figures show vacancy rates have dropped back to 6.6 percent in Chatswood which is the lowest vacancy rate for many years. We also expect demand to increase further due to the strong transport links already in place in Chatswood and the absence of any significant increase in supply. 
Looking forward, we are confident that Chatswood status as a major commercial and residential hub will be cemented by the benefits of the major infrastructure spend by the NSW State Government. 
Positive fundamentals in the CBD fringe, particularly in the south
Vacancies continue to fall in the city fringe as a result of leasing growth on the back of demand from tenants displaced by withdrawals for infrastructure and residential projects in both the CBD and locally.
The Southern CBD and fringe areas are undergoing a renaissance on the back of proximity to the rapidly growing residential area of South Sydney as well as demand from tenants displaced by the metro line. This area is particularly popular with advertising and media companies, resulting in over 10,000 sqm of demand in the six months to January 2016, according to Colliers. 
In late 2015, in conjunction with Mirvac, we acquired commercial property within the Australian Technology Park south of Sydney. The site is 14 hectares, three kilometres south of the Sydney CBD on the site of a $1 billion development for CBA, which we believe will have wide-ranging positive impacts on the broader Central to Eveleigh corridor.
So what’s the bottom line?  Our house view is that tenant demand for metro locations will continue to strengthen as CBD vacancy rates fall. Withdrawal of A and B grade stock for residential conversion and/or infrastructure development will leave many tenants in this market seeking cost effective solutions in those suburbs with good (and improving) transport links.
This means markets such as Chatswood, and the southern fringe of the CBD are likely to benefit. We have already taken advantage of a number of opportunities with compelling value, such as our purchase, in conjunction with global investment manager BlackRock, of The Zenith in Chatswood.
Ultimately, we remain convinced that the fundamentals of these metro markets in NSW make them ideally suited to providing stable, high yields and potential for capital growth that our investors have come to expect.
 Jason Huljich is chief executive officer, Unlisted Property Funds for <a href="https://centuria.com.au" target="_blank">Centuria</a>.
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NSW office metro markets set to shine

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What can you get for $500,000 in Sydney when the median dwelling price is at $782,000 (CoreLogic, May 2016) with a 13.1 percent positive increase in year on year values?
According to property valuation firm Herron Todd White’s residential market report for July, if you have an open mind and are willing to compromise on at least one of the factors of floor space, distance to CBD or age of improvements, there are options throughout the greater metropolitan area. 
North Sydney 
In the northern suburbs of Sydney, $500,000 doesn’t buy you much at all. With that threshold limit, compared with the CoreLogic unit median price of $662,000, you have the options of a semi-modern one-bedroom unit with one car space in Waitara, a 1970s one-bedroom unit with one car space in Lane Cove, or if there is some stretch available, a smaller semi modern studio in St Leonards without a car space. Further up towards the beaches you can still only just get a 1-bedroom unit but the closer you get to the city, the more likely you’ll have to contend with an older complex, dated inclusions, main road frontage and no car parking. 
This price bracket is generally made up of investors and first home buyers, both of which are sensitive to price and interest rate movements. The current cash rate as at June on hold at 1.75% may impact the market but we believe current regulations on investment loans will play a larger role in how this market performs overall.
As an illustration, Property Observer found a one-bedroom unit at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-nsw-waitara-121952018" target="_blank">2402/32 Orara Street Waitara NSW 2077</a> that sold for $490,000.
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prateek24-ezbwHMbNAk

For $500,000, you can still buy a one-bedroom unit in northern Sydney: HTW 

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Aqualand has emerged as the buyer of a heritage site at Sydney’s Millers Point near the $6 billion Barangaroo redevelopment.
Backed by Shanghai-based Shenglong Group, Aqualand is taking a long-term view on the Australian market after acquisitions over the past two years that takes its pipeline to well over $1 billion, The Australian noted.
Aqualand paid $40 million for the 1-3 Munn Street site, a boutique five-storey commercial office building, sold by Primary Health Care.
The Chinese residential developer has also snapped up a 13,215sq m office and warehouse property in Macquarie Park in Sydney's north shore for $54 million.
With plans to hold the property for rental income, the B7 Business Park property will net Aqualand $3.1 million annually.
Real estate investment house Altis Property Partners sold the property through Colliers International's Roger Miller, Gavin Bishop and Jon Chomley.
<div>
On another front Aqualand has been given the nod to convert the office tower at 168 Walker Street, North Sydney into 415 luxury apartments.
The 7435sq m site at the corner of McLaren and Walker streets will be developed into four residential towers ranging from 22 to 28 storeys to a design by architect Woods Bagot.
Aqualand is currently completing the REVY apartment project in Pyrmont.
It also settled on a residential development site in the upper northern Sydney suburb of Turramurra for $15 million.
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Aqualand expands Sydney property projects again 

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Bell Potter have retained its buy recommendation on its recent sponsored float, McGrath Estate Agents, but now suggest $1.50 is the 12 month price target for the stock that was trading at sub $1 in trade for almost of Tuesday. In Wednesday trade it has been bought at between 99 cents and $1.02.
The prior stock price target suggested only mid-last week by Bell Potter was $2.25, which would have seen it trade at above its December 2015 IPO price at $2.10.
<a href="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%203.31.25%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%203.31.25%20PM.png" alt="">
However yesterday McGrath (MEA) downgraded its forecasts on the back of weaker than expected market conditions and now expects EBITDA to be $4-5m lower than the prospectus forecast.
"The downgrade is disappointing given the company was tracking to budget for the first nine months of FY16 and more so given it was largely attributed to the recently acquired Smollen Group," Bell Potter noted.
Bell Potter have downgraded its EPS forecasts in FY16, FY17 and FY18 by 15 percent, 25 percent and 24 percent respectively.
"Our revised FY16 EBITDA forecast of $26.5m is within the guidance range of $26-27m.
"Given the severity of the 4Q slowdown our earnings downgrades are higher in FY17 and FY18.
<a href="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%203.31.33%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%203.31.33%20PM.png" alt="">
 
"We now expect FY16 revenue of $137m compared to the revised guidance range of $136-140m, and EBITDA of $26.5m compare to revised guidance of $26-27m.
"We have updated each valuation we use in the determination of our price target for the earnings changes as well as market movements and the time creep.
"We have also increased the discount we apply in the relative valuations from 7.5% to 20% and the beta we apply in the WACC calculation used in the DCF from 1.35 to 1.60.
"The net result is a 33% reduction in our price target from $2.25 to $1.50.
"We retain our BUY recommendation given a 12 month total return of greater than 15%," the stockbroker told clients today.
<div>
JP Morgan has also slashed its year-end McGrath share price expectations from $2.20 to $1.60.
The investment bank and broking house Bell Potter were joint lead managers and underwriters on the December McGrath float. 
JP Morgan's new target price revalues the company at $215 million, 24 per cent lower than its $282 million December prospectus, which priced shares at $2.10. 
</div>
<div>Shares in McGrath rallied on Tuesday, closing up 9.4 per cent at 99¢.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The JP Morgan note was sub-headlined "Smollen Group sales drag down prospectus" a reference to McGrath agreeing to pay to acquire the 10 Smollen Sydney franchise offices, though some of the cash component – about $2.63 million in 2016 – can be clawed back due to under-performance.</div>
 
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<img src="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%203.35.12%20PM.png" alt="">
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McGrath Estate Agents is still a buy: Bell Potter

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The listed real estate group McGrath has lowered its targeted dividend from 4.5 cents per share to 3 to 3.5 cents per share following a revision to forecast volumes and sales especially in the Sydney residential real estate market.
The agency resumed trading on the ASX at 88 cents Monday morning after pointing out increased property market volatility. The shares have traded at between 85 and 99 cents in morning trade.
Some 2.1 million shares were traded in morning trade, representing the busiest trading since the opening two days last December.
The drop-off has led to a downward revision in revenue forecasts of between $4-5 million, and the profit downgrade.
Postponed project launches by its project division was one of the reason for the revenue decline, with $500,000 coming off its revenues.
McGrath is now expecting north and north-west Sydney listings to be 25-30 per cent lower than prospectus forecasts, largely due to a drop off in the number of Chinese buyers in north-west Sydney.
There was also lost revenue because of delays implementing new IT software, would hit earnings by $500,000.
It  said there would be a continued reduction in Chinese buyer activity in the north western Sydney region.
It expected a 25 per cent to 30 per cent decline in listings in western Sydney compared to what its prospectus forecasts were.
These north western and western factors would hit earnings in the order of $3 million to $4 million.
The shares last traded at $1.30 before entering the trading halt.
"As flagged at the end of the half year, current conditions remain challenging in certain market segments and with listings and sales volumes not expected to materially change in the near term, McGrath has accordingly adjusted its expectations for sales volumes and values for the last quarter of 2016 financial year," the statement said.
"On the basis of the current quarter's listings trend (assuming there is no improvement in listings volumes) and current market conditions, McGrath expects to generate 2016 revenue in the range of $136 million to $140 million, and pro forma EBITDA in the range of $26 million to $27 million," the company said in a statement to the ASX.
The company, whose major shareholders include John McGrath and Perpetual, floated at $2.10 but has never exceeded that price. It last traded at $1.30 on Thursday.  
McGrath's board has determined that it will increase the target payout ratio to 75 per cent of net profit after tax for the fiscal 2016 year.
"This will decrease the target dividend from approximately 4.5 cents per share to 3‐3.5 cents per share for the period."
The main area of concern is revenue from company owned offices acquired before the float from the Smollen Group with its revenue 10 per cent below budget.
However the McGrath update noted that in its prospectus, the acquisition of the Smollen Group was structured so that some of the deferred consideration would not be paid if the business did not meet growth targets set at the time of acquisition. 
"Given the performance of this business as outlined above, the at risk component for 2016 of $2.625 million is therefore unlikely to be paid."
McGrath was floated by Bell Potter and JP Morgan. 
“While current industry volatility makes it challenging to forecast FY17, the long term fundamentals of the real estate industry remain attractive, underpinned by historically low interest rates and population growth,” McGrath says. 
McGrath floated in December raising $129.6 million with no debt.
The prospectus, issued in November, did warned house price growth could slow due to an expected plateau in house sales.
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Slowing apartment project sales to blame as McGrath resumes trading at 88 cents

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Property prices in Sydney are reaching their peak and sales activity in the city will drop by around 15% over the next year or two, Mirvac Group’s chief executive Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz has forecast.
Lloyd-Hurwitz made the predictions in announcing the group’s 2015 financial results, which included a record $2 billion worth of residential pre-sales, up 67% on the previous fiscal year.
“It does seem that the Sydney market is close to the point at which the strong upwards trajectory will end … We expect price growth to moderate away from the high double digit growth rate that it has been experiencing,” Lloyd-Hurwitz said.
Strong underlying demand for homes in Sydney was expected to prevent price falls. 
Lloyd-Hurwitz said the mix of buyers would more likely shift in favour of owner occupiers, away from investors who have recently been dominating the market.
Investors now account for about 40% of Mirvac’s residential sales, while owner occupiers and first home buyers made up 30% each. In the 2014 financial year, only 20% of the group’s sales were to first home buyers.
The group – which owns retail, office and industrial assets in addition to its residential development business – reported a statutory profit after tax of $609.9 million, up 36%.
Its financial results were at the top end of its guidance range, with an after-tax operating profit of $454.8 million, representing 12.3 cents per stapled security. It paid out distributions of 9.4 cents per stapled security.
Mirvac is in discussions to buy the $9 billion Investa office operation from Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing. Lloyd-Hurwitz could not comment further on the deal aside from to say it was “a highly strategic opportunity” that was “uncertain and incomplete”.
The group forecast earnings per share for fiscal 2016 would be between 12.7 and 13 cents per stapled security and distributions would be from 9.7 to 9.9 cents per stapled security.
What Mirvac Group chief executive Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz said about other markets around the country:
<ul>
<li>“Conditions in the residential market are quite variable across the country.”</li>
<li>“In Melbourne, strong population growth will continue to support the demand with the deepest demand in the middle and outer rings.”</li>
<li>“In Brisbane, demand is steady with relatively attractive investment yields which is seeing Sydney-based investors investing into Brisbane. There hasn’t been a lot of supply in the land business so we’re seeing moderate price growth there.”</li>
<li>“In Perth, subdued economic conditions are certainly impacting the market. The affordable end of the market is supported by policy incentives.”</li>
</ul>
 
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