UAE-based developer Arada has unveiled plans for a $2 billion twin-tower apartment development in Broadbeach, marking its first move into Queensland as it continues its rapid expansion across Australia.

Arada will develop 952 apartments across two towers on a prominent site opposite the Gold Coast Convention and Exhibition Centre, with the project targeted for completion ahead of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

The project represents Arada's largest commitment to the Australian market since arriving in the country in 2024 and significantly expands a local pipeline that has now grown to eight projects and more than 5,000 homes.

It will also be the first major Queensland project delivered by Roberts Co since the tier-one contractor was acquired by Arada Group in 2025.

Plus Studio has designed the Broadbeach development, which will comprise one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two towers connected by a landscaped podium.

A significant resident amenity offering will include lagoon and lap pools, a gym, sauna and steam room, alongside a mist room, infrared room and salt scrub facilities. Communal terraces, private dining areas, a library, residents' lounge and work-from-home spaces are also planned. Around 1,200 sqm of retail and hospitality space will occupy the ground floor.

The site puts Arada in one of the Gold Coast's most active apartment markets, directly opposite the convention centre and within walking distance of Pacific Fair, The Star Gold Coast and Broadbeach's dining and retail precinct.

It also has immediate access to the Gold Coast light rail network and sits just a few blocks from the beach.

Arada Group Chief Executive Ahmed Alkhoshaibi said Broadbeach represented an opportunity for the developer to expand beyond its initial NSW pipeline.

“Broadbeach is a world-class address that gives us the canvas to create a community of exceptional design and lifestyle quality that genuinely enriches the daily lives of the people who call it home,” Alkhoshaibi said.

“This is our first development outside New South Wales, and it reflects our growing ambition to grow in key urban markets around the country.”

Alkhoshaibi said bringing Roberts Co into the project would give Arada greater control over the development and construction process.

“Delivering this project through Roberts Co, our own tier-one construction business, means we can bring the quality, pace and accountability that our buyers expect.”

The move into Broadbeach comes as Arada accelerates its Australian expansion following its entry into the market two years ago. The developer has assembled a pipeline of eight projects comprising more than 5,000 homes, while the acquisition of Roberts Co last year gave the group its own Australian construction capability.

Globally, Arada has a development portfolio valued at $50 billion comprising more than 55,000 homes across the UAE, United Kingdom and Australia.

The Gold Coast is emerging as the next major market for the developer, with strong population growth and infrastructure spending ahead of the 2032 Games continuing to underpin significant apartment development across the coastal strip.

Joel Robinson

Arada plots $2 billion Broadbeach towers in major Queensland move

Sydney’s downsizer market is changing, with a growing cohort of buyers prioritising the right home over simply finding a smaller one.

Coronation Property Head of Sales Cam Porter says the traditional idea of downsizing does not necessarily reflect what many buyers are now looking for, particularly those moving from established family homes across Sydney.

Instead, he says they are increasingly becoming “right-sizers”, seeking lower-maintenance homes without sacrificing the space, amenity or quality they have become accustomed to.

“We are increasingly seeing buyers who are not motivated by the idea of simply moving into a smaller property,” Porter says.

“They are right-sizers. They want a home that is easier to manage and better connected, but they still expect generosity, quality and a floorplan that supports the way they live.”

It is a subtle but important distinction in a market where apartment developers are increasingly targeting established owner-occupiers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135149 project_image_fid=377495]

For many of these buyers, moving from a house to an apartment is not driven by a desire to dramatically reduce their living space. Instead, the appeal is in removing some of the maintenance associated with a larger home while retaining generous living areas, storage and enough flexibility to accommodate family and friends.

Coronation’s sales team is seeing buyers place particular importance on natural light, practical storage and additional rooms that can be used as guest bedrooms, home offices or secondary living spaces.

Kitchens and dining areas are also playing an increasingly important role, particularly for buyers who regularly entertain or have children and grandchildren visit.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135149 project_image_fid=377494]

“These buyers still want their home to feel generous,” Porter says.

“They may want less maintenance, but they are not looking for less life.”

The challenge for the broader housing market is providing enough of the right stock to encourage that move.

While much of the discussion around Sydney’s housing shortage has centred on the number of homes being delivered, Porter says the diversity of those homes is equally important.

Older homeowners can remain in large family houses for longer when they cannot find an appropriate alternative in the neighbourhoods where they have built their lives.

“The decision is rarely as simple as wanting fewer bedrooms,” Porter says.

“People are weighing up their connection to a neighbourhood, the space they need for family, the quality of the home and whether it will continue to work for them over the long term.”

It also has implications beyond the downsizer market. Providing suitable apartments for smaller households can free up established houses for families who need the additional bedrooms and land, creating greater movement through the housing market.

<h2>Lillian targets the next stage of apartment buyer</h2>

It is a buyer Coronation is targeting at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lillian-erskineville-9-metters-street-erskineville-nsw-2043">Lillian</a>, its new collection of apartments, terraces and penthouses at Erskineville Village.

Designed by Silvester Fuller, Lillian has been shaped around larger living spaces, natural light and flexible floorplans, alongside landscaped areas, wellness amenity and communal spaces for residents.

The development will form part of Coronation’s broader Erskineville Village precinct, which will combine new homes with green space, retail, hospitality and new pedestrian connections.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135149 project_image_fid=377688]

McPherson Park will sit at the centre of the precinct, creating a significant new green space alongside the project’s retail and hospitality offering.

For Porter, the opportunity is to give buyers another housing option without forcing them to leave the part of Sydney they already know.

“People should be able to change the type of home they live in without having to change their entire life,” he says.

“For many buyers, Lillian offers the opportunity to remain connected to the Inner West and the city, while gaining access to a more convenient, walkable and considered way of living.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135149 project_image_fid=377687]

Coronation will explore the changing <a href="https://lillianresidences.com.au/news/lillian-x-space-x-downsizers-event-27-august/">right-sizer market at an event on August 27</a>, bringing together experts across property, design and lifestyle.

Held in partnership with SPACE, Poliform and Downsizer.com.au, the event will include a property market outlook from economist Michael Blythe alongside discussion around the considerations facing buyers planning their next move.

Attendees will also be able to learn more about the residences and amenity planned at Lillian Erskineville.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135149]

From downsizing to right-sizing: What Sydney buyers want from their next home

Family-owned builder and developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/omaya">Omaya</a> is bringing its 27-storey The Maybelle development to market, with the 229-apartment tower rising alongside Ismay Reserve near North Strathfield.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-maybelle-21-parramatta-road-homebush-nsw-2140">The Maybelle</a> will comprise one, two and three-bedroom apartments, with its height providing elevated outlooks towards the Sydney skyline and Harbour Bridge, while other residences will look across neighbouring Ismay Reserve.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/squillace-architects">Squillace Architects</a>, the tower combines its parkside setting with proximity to the established retail, dining and transport amenity around North Strathfield.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134873 project_image_fid=376196]

Residences will feature open-plan living spaces and a choice of two interior schemes, while communal amenity is spread across two elevated levels of the building.

Level 8 will be home to the Garden Pavilion, a full-floor resident space incorporating communal entertaining and breakout areas, seating and recreation spaces. Further up the tower, a landscaped Sky Terrace on Level 14 will provide another communal area with panoramic views towards the Harbour Bridge and Sydney skyline.

At ground level, the development sits directly alongside Ismay Reserve, where lawns, walking paths, children's play areas, picnic spaces and recreational facilities extend the green space available immediately around the project.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134873 project_image_fid=376194]

The Maybelle is also within walking distance of North Strathfield and the Bakehouse Quarter, which provides a mix of cafés, restaurants, shops and everyday services.

Existing rail and bus services provide connections across Sydney, while the future North Strathfield Metro and access to the M4 will add to the transport options available around the precinct. Walking and cycling routes also extend via Powells Creek towards Sydney Olympic Park and its sporting, entertainment and parkland precincts.

Families are also well positioned for access to a broad selection of established schools and education options across Strathfield and the surrounding Inner West.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134873 project_image_fid=376181]

Omaya has operated in Sydney for more than 35 years, managing projects from acquisition and design through to construction and delivery. The family-owned company is both developer and builder of The Maybelle.

Apartments start from $560,000, with the development protected by 10-year Latent Defects Insurance.

Construction is well underway, with completion expected by the end of 2026 and move-in anticipated from Q1 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134873]

The Maybelle brings 27-storey parkside tower to market near North Strathfield

Melbourne developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pdg-corporation">PDG</a> has unveiled its vision for the former Water Tank Site in Ivanhoe, which would see it transformed into a thriving residential neighbourhood, complete with a 2000 sqm public park.&nbsp;

Delivered in partnership with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/development-victoria">Development Victoria</a>, the proposal would transform the prominent corner of Bell Street and Upper Heidelberg Road into a connected community comprising two residential buildings, generous public open space and shared amenities.&nbsp;

The vision includes 287 one, two and three-bedroom apartments, with a minimum of 10 per cent allocated to affordable housing, alongside a 2,000-square-metre publicly accessible park featuring a children's playground, activity lawn, indigenous planting, timber climbing logs, seating areas and a rock gathering circle.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/dko-architecture">DKO Architecture</a>, the proposal draws on the site's industrial heritage, using a robust architectural language that references the former water tank through expressive structural elements and durable, self-finished materials.&nbsp;

Extensive landscaping has been woven throughout the development, creating a living landscape that strengthens connections to nature while responding sensitively to the surrounding neighbourhood. Two residential buildings ranging from three to 12 storeys are linked by a landscaped forecourt, creating a welcoming arrival experience and improving pedestrian connections through the site.&nbsp;

Residents would also enjoy more than 1,000 square metres of communal open space, including barbecue and dining facilities, vegetable gardens, landscaped seating pavilions and a dedicated coworking space.&nbsp;

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the vision reflected an opportunity to transform one of Ivanhoe's most recognisable sites into a place that balanced housing, community and landscape.&nbsp;

"This is an opportunity to reimagine an important site and create a neighbourhood that delivers lasting benefits for Ivanhoe," Giuliano said.&nbsp;

"We're creating much more than new homes. The vision brings together affordable housing, quality architecture, meaningful public open space and shared places that encourage people to connect, while respecting the site's history and its place within the local community."&nbsp;

Development Victoria’s Executive General Manager Precincts, Niall Cunningham, said the application is an important step for the government-owned site.&nbsp;

“This is about delivering more homes in a well-connected location, along with public open space that the Ivanhoe community will benefit from for years to come,” Cunningham said.&nbsp;

PDG was selected as development partner in late 2025 following a competitive tender process.&nbsp;

A planning submission for the project is currently being progressed through the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program, with positive early engagement from both Banyule Council and the Department of Transport and Planning.

PDG unveils plans to transform landmark Ivanhoe Water Tank Site

Shane Wilkinson's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pace-development-group">Pace Development Group</a> has lodged plans for a major residential precinct on the former Presentation College site in Windsor, with an eight-building masterplan ultimately rising to 10 storeys.

The proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/167-dandenong-road-windsor-vic-3181">167–187 Dandenong Road</a> spans a substantial 19,027 sqm site and is being progressed across six stages, with the first residential stages comprising 170 homes across four buildings designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a>.

Stage Two will deliver the bulk of the initial housing, with Building A comprising 81 apartments and Building B 49 apartments, both rising to six storeys.

Stage Three will deliver a further 40 homes. The heritage Nagel Building, identified as Building C, will be converted to 12 dwellings, while a new five-storey Building D will comprise 28 apartments at the Hornby Street and Dandenong Road corner.

The 170 homes across Stages Two and Three will include a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, including townhouse-style dwellings.<img alt="First look: Pace plans landscaped housing precinct on former Windsor school site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="83c56e3e-dfb9-4e12-b172-c3f18513ec32" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_9.png?VersionId=xRcRpSZsxX.UX_NDDGcRZktw7HVrzx7u" />

&nbsp;

The longer-term masterplan points to considerably greater density across the site.

Indicative plans show Building E accommodating around 80 dwellings across up to 10 storeys, while Building F is earmarked for around 120 dwellings and also up to 10 storeys. Building G is planned to range between four and 10 storeys, however its apartment yield is yet to be determined. That means the masterplan currently identifies at least 370 dwellings across Buildings A to F before any apartments within Building G are counted.

Across the 1.9-hectare site, that represents an indicative density of at least 194 dwellings per hectare, with the final figure to increase once the yield of Building G is established.

Pace is pursuing the project through the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program, with Urbis lodging a combined Section 96A planning scheme amendment and planning application on behalf of the developer, which secured the site earlier this year.

The application seeks detailed approval for Stages One, Two and Three, alongside approval of the broader masterplan framework that will guide the later residential stages. Stage One will see an existing heritage building adaptively reused for a wellness and fitness-related facility, while the broader precinct will retain several significant heritage buildings and established trees as part of the redevelopment.

A minimum 10 per cent affordable housing contribution is proposed across both the initial residential stages and the later masterplan stages, delivered through a discounted rental model.

The project comes immediately after a major change to the site's planning controls.

The site was rezoned to the Housing Choice and Transport Zone through Planning Scheme Amendment GC285, gazetted on July 22, 2026, and now sits within the inner catchment of the Windsor Station precinct under the State Government's Train and Tram Zone Activity Centres Program.

While the new controls identify large sites within the inner catchment for buildings of up to six storeys, Pace's masterplan pushes height to 10 storeys in parts of the site, with the taller buildings concentrated toward the centre and along the Sandringham railway corridor.

Lower-scale built form is proposed toward the site's more sensitive residential and heritage edges, with Buildings A and B generally stepping from three storeys at their interfaces to six storeys at upper levels.

Cera Stribley's masterplan breaks the development into a collection of separate buildings rather than a continuous built form, with landscaped spaces, new pedestrian links and a new publicly accessible road forming part of the precinct.

The planning report says the development will create new pedestrian connections to Elm Place and along the railway corridor, as well as a new publicly accessible road linking Elm Place with Dandenong Road. The proposed buildings will occupy around 54 per cent of the site, leaving a substantial portion available for landscaping, communal areas and permeable surfaces.

Urbis said the scale of the project reflected the site's strategic location close to Windsor Station, tram services and the Chapel Street Activity Centre, with the former school campus identified as a significant opportunity to increase housing supply on an underutilised inner-Melbourne site.

&nbsp;

First look: Pace plans landscaped housing precinct on former Windsor school site

Sydney Prices

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The Sydney housing market is starting to slow following more than five years of strong increases in dwelling values.
As the Sydney market slows there could be some upside for other housing markets where capital gains have been more sustainable and rental yields are higher.
Australia’s third largest city, Brisbane, has recently garnered more attention as a candidate for improved housing market conditions.
In this week’s blog we look at the historic relationship between housing market growth in Sydney and Brisbane in order to determine whether the slowdown in Sydney could translate into an acceleration in Brisbane.
 
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage1.png" alt="2017-10-09--annualchangeindwellingvalues" width="570" height="198">
The 30 year annual change chart above tends to indicate that after a surge in Sydney dwelling values Brisbane has followed suit thereafter.  
Following Sydney dwelling value growth peaking at 61.7% p.a. in August 1988, Brisbane dwelling value growth peaked at an annual rate of 35.3% in February 1989.  
Annual growth in Sydney dwelling values also peaked in January 2002 at 20.8% with Brisbane’s rate of growth not peaking until December 2003 at 30.7%.  
Keep in mind that outside of these two clear examples, a rise in Sydney value growth has not necessarily been met with a rise in Brisbane (or vice versa).
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage2.png" alt="2017-10-09--sydneydwellingvaluepremiumrelativetobrisbane" width="570" height="198">
  What the growth of Sydney values in 1988 and 2001 did have in common is that they resulted in a significant gap opening between values in Sydney and Brisbane.  
At its peak in August 1988, Sydney dwelling values were typically 104% more than Brisbane dwellings.  
At its height in September 2001, Sydney dwelling values were 107% higher than Brisbane dwelling prices.  
Recently the chart shows that the gap between values in Sydney and Brisbane has increased and at September 2017 the differential was 86%.  
The long-term average premium for Sydney dwellings over Brisbane is 55% indicating that the gap remains above the long-term average.  Interestingly, even taking a shorter time-frame the average gap has been 56% over the past 20 years and a lower 41% over the past decade.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage3.png" alt="2017-10-09--quarterlyinterstatemigrationfromnswtoqld" width="570" height="198">
  Queensland has historically been a popular migration destination for people choosing to leave New South Wales.  
The above chart highlights that following the surge in value growth and the widening of dwelling prices between Sydney and Brisbane, migration from New South Wales to Queensland has typically increased.  
Over the long-term, the average quarterly number of persons migrating from New South Wales to Queensland has been recorded at 12,376 persons.  
Migration from New South Wales to Queensland peaked over the March 1989 quarter at 18,259 persons and then averaged 14,461 persons per quarter from March 1989 to December 1991.  
Migration from New South Wales to Queensland peaked again in December 2002 at 18,129 persons and then averaged 15,392 persons per quarter from December 2002 to September 2004.
As migration from New South Wales to Queensland has recently picked-up, so far it has peaked at a much lower 13,487 persons over the December 2016 quarter which is only 9.0% above the long-term average.  
By comparison the 1989 peak saw migration to Queensland peak at 47.5% above the long-run average and the 2002 peak saw migration peak at 46.5% above the long-run average.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage4.png" alt="2017-10-09--annualchangeinemployment" width="570" height="198">
  Unless those people migrating from New South Wales to Queensland are retirees, employment opportunities must be a key consideration.  
Post the 1987 boom in Sydney, New South Wales employment growth was slowing while it accelerated in Queensland.  
Similarly in the early 2000’s employment growth had been greater in New South Wales than in Queensland however, by June 2001 Queensland’s employment was growing at a faster annual rate than New South Wales’ with Queensland employment growth consistently stronger than New South Wales all the way until January 2008.  
Over this period, dwelling value growth in Brisbane had consistently been stronger than growth in Sydney.  
Looking more recently, New South Wales has consistently recorded stronger annual employment growth than Queensland between September 2014 and March 2017.  Since April 2017, annual employment growth in Queensland has been greater than in New South Wales.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/20174-10-09-blogimage5.png" alt="2017-10-09--unemploymentratetrend" width="570" height="198">
  Although employment growth is important, the unemployment rate is also a consideration.  
Although job creation picked up in Queensland after 1987, Queensland’s unemployment rate was consistently higher than New South Wales’ until October 1991 when it was fairly similar to that of New South Wales.  
By August 1992 Queensland’s unemployment rate fell below New South Wales’ and remained lower until December 1994.  
The New South Wales unemployment rate was then consistently lower than Queensland’s until July 2004 with Queensland’s unemployment rate remaining lower than News South Wales’ from July 2004 until late 2009 (thankyou mining boom!).  
From February 2010 onwards, Queensland is yet to chalk up one month in which its unemployment rate is lower than New South Wales’.  Interestingly though, the gap between the New South Wales and Queensland unemployment rate is currently lower (1.1 basis points) than it was as the Sydney housing market was peaking in August 1988 (1.5 basis points) and January 2002 (1.9 basis points).
The trends presented here would generally suggest that Brisbane could be well positioned for a pick-up in value growth as the Sydney housing market slows.  
Keep in mind though that there have been instances in the past where value growth has surged in Sydney and it hasn’t been followed by a surge in Brisbane, so a lift in Brisbane growth is no certainty.  
A significant gap in the cost of housing between the two cities was evident in both 1989 and 2002 and it also evident currently.  As value growth rose in Brisbane, interstate migration from New South Wales hit levels significantly above the long-term average and although interstate migration is increasing it is yet to hit anything close to those previous highs.  Employment growth is accelerating in Queensland which may encourage an increasing number of people from New South Wales to Queensland and the differential in unemployment rate is smaller than it was in 1989 and 2002.
One other consideration is whether the same magnitude of people leaving New South Wales for Queensland will actually settle in Brisbane.  
Both the Gold and Sunshine Coasts are much bigger cities in their own right than they were in 1989 and 2002 plus connectivity with Brisbane is much better than it was previously, so perhaps these migrants will be more inclined to settle on one of the Coasts rather than Brisbane.  
Over the 12 months to September 2017, Brisbane dwelling values have increased by 2.9% while values on the Gold Coast are 5.4% higher over the year and Sunshine Coast values are 6.6%. 
In my opinion, before we can call a coming surge in Brisbane dwelling values we are going to need to see both more evidence that migrants are settling in Brisbane rather than the Gold and Sunshine Coasts.  Migration from New South Wales to Queensland is going to have to lift by a lot more than it has to-date.  Finally, Queensland will also need to see a sustained improvement in employment growth to lure more people across the border.
 
Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Sydney housing market starting to slow: will Brisbane benefit?

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Stand by for an avalanche of hysterical nonsense from mainstream media as the Sydney property market continues its gradual wind-down after four strong years of price growth. 
At Hotspotting we’ve been charting a steady decrease in sales activity for at least the past 18 months across the Sydney metro area. This inevitably has led to the slow-down in the price growth rates we are now seeing, alongside a reduction in auction clearance rates. 
We’re likely to see a similar scenario to the one that evolved in 2004, following the end of the previous boom, which stretched from 2001 to 2003. Back then there were plenty of predictions of price collapse from attention-seekers, but that did not occur. We simply saw an end to the previous price growth and values flat-lined for a few years. 
The evidence to date, both statistical and anecdotal, suggests we’ll see similar things this time. The conditions for significant price decline – economic recession, high unemployment, major oversupply and reckless lending – don’t exist. 
The key elements that drove the up-cycle – the strength of the NSW economy, the very high levels of infrastructure spending and the steady population growth – are still as prominent as ever. And of course we still have very low interest rates, though their influence is much less than the chattering economists would have us believe. 
But we’ve already seen some doomsayer headlines. 
One high-profile commentator, Robert Gottliebsen, claims that values of established apartments have fallen as much as 25 percent in some locations, but I can’t find any evidence of this and neither can anyone else I’ve spoken to. 
The consensus from property professionals at the coal-face is that the frenzy has dissipated and market behaviour has moderated, but there is, as yet, no sign of prices dropping. The evidence is that they have stopped rising, generally speaking. 
Mainstream media, always a great source of misinformation about property markets, over-reacted to the recent CoreLogic figures that suggested a small decrease in Sydney prices in October. That prompted headlines declaring the end of boom and, in some cases, a likely collapse in values. 
It also inspired some of the more shallow commentators, like those at UBS, to rush to be the first to declare the end of “the Australian property boom” – that fictitious entity that exists only in the minds of economists who don’t understand the workings of our many different real estate markets. 
Media should know better than to over-react to month-to-month figures, which are notoriously erratic and ultimately irrelevant. 
I remember similar mis-interpretations late last year when the month-to-month figures showed a 1.3% drop in Melbourne house values in November 2016. Media shouted that the Melbourne boom was over and values were falling. But the next set of monthly figures showed a 3.3% rise in December, at which point media screamed that the boom was back on. And, with further rises in subsequent months, those strident headlines about the collapse of the Melbourne market were quickly forgotten. 
I’ve spoken to a number of respected buyers agents and trustworthy selling agents and no one has seen any sign of the nose-diving values perceived by Gottliebsen in the secondhand apartment market. 
The principal of Snowden Parkes Real Estate, Tony Abboud, is as informed as anyone about Sydney apartment markets and he says the reality is the opposite to what Gottliebsen has claimed. 
The Australian columnist reckons new apartments are fine but secondhand ones are losing value rapidly. Abboud sees it quite differently. He says more and more buyers are opting for the established product, because it’s more affordable than the new stuff – and that’s underpinning values. 
“The existing apartments have been holding up well, because they have lower prices per square metre than the off-the-plan product,” Abboud says. “So it’s made them more attractive. Buyers are also more likely to buy something that’s already built because it offers certainty. 
“We are getting 20 or 30 calls a day from buyers. They are taking longer to make decisions, because the urgency has gone from the market, but there’s an intent to purchase.” 
Buyers agent Kate Hill from Adviseable has seen no evidence of price decline in the Sydney market. 
“The market has eased off but prices are holding at the moment,” she says. “There’s no evidence of a big drop in apartment values. There’s still relatively consistent demand. Markets have come off the boil and a lot more properties are being passed in at auction, but there’s no evidence I’ve seen of price decline.” 
Buyers agent Rich Harvey of propertybuyer says that if apartments were selling at a 25 percent discount he would be buying the first that comes on the market, but he has seen no sign of that occurring. 
He’s seeing mixed results in the auction market as far as pricing goes: some selling above reserve, some hitting the reserve price and some selling a little under reserve. 
“There’s certainly no sign of panic,” Harvey says. “Some vendors are being a bit more realistic and we’re seeing a degree of moderation in the market. It’s not quite a buyers’ market yet, but we are seeing opportunities.” 
He says he’s getting more calls from selling agents asking if they have buyers – rather than just opening the door and watching the buyers rush in. 
So, all signs point to a market which, unsurprisingly, is running out of puff after sprinting for four years. But we can expect Sydney to keep jogging steadily. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au 
twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Avalanche of hysterical nonsense as Sydney property market continues gradual wind-down

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Despite periodic warnings from the Reserve Bank about crazy prices, the Sydney market place has just had a year that no-one foresaw in terms of continued strong price growth.
But Brian White, chairman of real estate agency Ray White, says that homeowners’ and buyers’ sensitivity to interest rates remained "acute."
Any talk of rising interest rates dampens buyer enthusiasm across the Sydney property market.
And when rates do actually rise, the doubts set in further as buyers pause putting their hand too deep into their pockets. And often not buying at all.
It was no surprise that the tail end of 2016's auctions has seen a seasonal turn in the pitch as the last minute boost in numbers hits the market.
Clearance rates that were in the 80s, now into the mid-70 as many buyers turned off - perhaps to come back next year.
The recent auction market fatique also had much to do with interest rate headlines.
Ever since the Trump triumph in the United State in early November, its been subject to much speculation.
And the past fortnight has seen the big banks make early adjustments, to fixed rates more so than the more popular variable home loans. 
The Commonwealth Bank, the country’s biggest lender lifted the rate of its popular 3-year fixed rate by 0.20 percentage points to 4.24 percent.
It also lifted its longer-term 5-year fixed rate by 0.60 percentage points to 4.74 percent.
CBA was following Westpac with a RateCity.com.au analysis showing a further 20 lenders had lifted rates 268 fixed products since November 1.  
Peter Arnold, data insights director at RateCity.com.au said fixed rates are based on market expectations of future rates and "are the best indicator that we’ve got that a variable rate hike on the way.".
“Previously, banks were betting on lower rates in the future but we’re seeing those expectations change by the day."
<div id="x_x_story-description">
All the recent talk and then movements will dictate the direction of house price growth in 2017, having already started to dampened the market.
There are two substantive price forecasts out for 2017. 
Housing price growth of between 5 and 6 percent is expected for 2017 for detached houses is tipped by Paul Bloxham, the HSBC chief economist.
He expects Sydney apartment prices to track at a slower pace than detached houses at between 0 and 4 percent.
Bloxham noted what he called a substantial 66 percent ramp-up in housing prices in Sydney since mid-2012.
He added some of the price growth was at a "worrisome pace" of Sydney price growth, particularly in 2014 and 2015.
But following a tightening in prudential settings starting in late 2014, housing price growth had slowd from double-digit growth last year to high single-digit rates this year.
The other forecast came from SQM's Louis Christopher who has more often got it right than wrong.
He suggests the Reserve Bank of Australia will need the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to reign in home lending once again, or lift interest rates, or do both to avert a dangerous housing bubble.
Christopher suggested a scenario house prices in Sydney could rise between 11 and 16 percent given a combination of factors including loose monetary policy, strong population growth and booming local economies.
The early November forecast assumed a stable interest rate environment, a stable exchange rate and no further home lending restrictions by APRA.
A rate rise by the RBA of 25bps would curtail the rising Sydney market to beween 8 and 13 percent for the year.
The article first appeared in the Saturday Telegraph
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

What will happen to Sydney prices in 2017?

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Sydney prices will rise by around 10 per cent over 2020, valuation firm Herron Todd White believe.
They expect new listings to increase in the first half of 2020, which should see price growth begin to moderate, however they still expect double digit growth in the harbour capital.
A price growth of 10 per cent will see prices move above the previous peak in the second half of the year.
"We expect prices to be fairly strong across most regions and sub-sectors however we expect the lower quartile to begin to improve at a quicker pace while new units in oversupplied suburbs may remain weaker for the first half of the year", the valuation firm advised.
"A number of infrastructure developments have recently opened, or will open in 2020, which will continue to strengthen prices in the suburbs benefiting from these links."
Sydney dwelling values saw a 5.3 per cent increase of 2019, kickstarted in the middle of the year when the fast-paced recovery began. The final quarter alone saw prices rise 6.2 per cent, according to CoreLogic.
HTW believe the jump was mostly due to an increase in demand after the elections and interest rate cuts, while new listing levels remained fairly subdued in comparison to previous years.
Herron Todd White's monthly reporting of the property market saw no changes to their property clock, which puts capitals and sub-regions in to stages of the property cycle.
They said time will tell how the bush fires will play out both economically and politically for the remainder of the year, and what impacts it may have on the wider property market.
 
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wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

Sydney prices to increase around 10 per cent over 2020: Herron Todd White

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Sydney house prices will remain close to unchanged in the year to December 2019 after falling by about 8% in 2018, according to the latest Domain forecasts.
Domain predicts house prices will grow modestly in 2020.
They believe that house prices will fall by about 12% from their peak of almost $1.2 million in June 2017 to a low point of just above $1 million in mid-2019.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/Sydney%20Domain%201.JPG" alt="">
Source: Domain
Sydney unit prices are expected to be more resilient than house prices.
Domain Economist Trent Wiltshire said: "Unit prices are expected to fall by about 3% over the year to December 2018, but then prices are expected to grow modestly over the next two years at about 3-5%.
"Sydney unit prices are predicted to fall by 6% from their peak of $769,000 in June 2017 to their lowest point of about $720,000.
"At this low point, Sydney unit prices will be back at their late-2016 level.
"The NSW government’s stamp duty concessions are also likely to support unit price growth."
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/Sydney%20Domain%202.JPG" alt="">
Source: Domain 
However, one risk to Sydney unit prices is whether the large pipeline of new unit construction is absorbed.
Given projected strong population growth, Domain is of the opinion that this will not result in city-wide price falls, although some areas with a particularly large amount of new construction may see prices remain weak.
"Tighter lending conditions have weighed heavily on Sydney property prices, particularly for more expensive properties, but we think this is likely to have played out by mid-2019," Wiltshire said. 
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%201.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%201.JPG" alt="">
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%202.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%202.JPG" alt="">
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Sydney house prices will drop 12% from peak: Domain

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It has been increasingly obvious Sydney housing affordability was deteriorating based on the number of years’ worth of income required to purchase a home.
The significant gap also exists between incomes and the cost of renting.
The situation is particularly dire for single income households.
Professor David Adamson, from the University of South Wales, noted in the recent Housing Affordability Income Gap report, that the geography of housing unaffordability was increasingly hurting middle-income families.
Historically rents have been more closely pegged to incomes than property prices, but this link appears to be weakening.
Adamson suggests we have a broken housing system as between 2006 and 2016, Sydney median rents have increased by 76% while incomes have increased by 51%.
"The analysis tells us that this isn’t simply an experience of the few but that occupations often seen as middle-class and well paid are increasingly experiencing housing stress in order to live close to their place of work."
The report concluded typical households face the choice between living a considerable distance from the city, or living in a one-bedroom apartment.
If neither option was practical, these households are effectively forced to accept living in housing stress.
Avoiding stress on a two-bedroom apartment in Sydney’s inner suburbs required a $121,000 income.
The report notes the median rent in Sydney is $530 per week which would be enough to secure a three-bedroom house in Blacktown, but not enough for a two-bedroom unit in Burwood.
The report found two-bedroom units in Sydney’s middle ring are affordable, however affordability income gaps exist in the Canada Bay, Hunters Hill, Ku-ring-gai and Willoughby LGAs. 
Sydney’s outer ring is affordable for renting, although income gaps exist for detached dwellings in Hornsby, Northern Beaches, Sutherland, and The Hills Shire.
Since June 2000, regions in Sydney’s west such as Blacktown and Fairfield have experienced rent increases of 125% and 145% respectively, compared to 87% in Mosman, and 94% in Woollahra.
The effect is even more pronounced in satellite cities on the outskirts of Sydney such as Newcastle, where rents are up 150%, and Wollongong with rents up by 168%. 
With relatively lower incomes, renters of detached dwellings in the outlying locations and regional NSW face housing stress too.
The report acknowledges the 30-year boom in house prices has made a lot of people extremely wealthy, "at least on paper".
It then suggests the wealth effect was "perhaps why so many have been willing to turn a blind eye to the economic and social fallout for so long".
It slammed policy makers for "aiding this wilful blindness by using cheap credit and immigration to create the illusion of an economy running on all cylinders".
The AHIG report noted dwelling prices have experienced modest declines over the year with Sydney leading the way, down 4.5%.
"It would be a mistake however for policy makers to take this as a sign that no action is required," the report concluded, noting for Australian housing to meet any accepted definition of affordability, prices would have to fall by 60% from the 2017 peak.
It conceded any major fall in prices could spark a deep and painful recession.
However a recession "sparked by a housing bust should be viewed as an opportunity to address the systemic problems that enabled the emergence of the crisis in the first place,' it ill-advisedly countenances.
This article first appeared in The Daily Telegraph. 
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Sydney's rental affordability is hurting middle-income families 

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Both houses and apartments in Sydney have begun their decline, according to the latest Herron Todd White property clock.
The valuation firm put Melbourne apartments at their peak, with Melbourne houses approaching their peak.
There are two capital cities with property markets at the bottom, Adelaide units and Darwin houses.
Brisbane, Canberra and Perth units are in decline. Perth houses are approaching the bottom of the market 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/6/Clock_Houses.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/6/Clock_Houses.jpg" alt="">
Sydney houses were at their peak last month and in September when HTT noted the "frenzied" house buying was fading.
Sydney houses and units were also deemed to be in decline in August. Sydney units stayed in decline in September and October.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/6/Clock_Units.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/6/Clock_Units.jpg" alt="">
 
 
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Sydney houses and apartments in price decline: HTW property clock

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Property, just like any other investment class, follows cycles where prices can rise, fall or plateau.
Sydney got a rare taste of a dip in September, according to CoreLogic, when it joined Darwin with values falling.
It was no great surprise, and not by much though.
After getting 80 percent percent higher over an extended five year upswing, Sydney dwelling values slipped 0.1 percent lower over the month to a $909,000 median, it’s first month-on-month decline in 17 months.
Ofcourse the headline figure is accompanied by increasing resale activity at lower prices.
The most recent CoreLogic pain gain report noted 2.6 percent of Sydney houses and 1.8 percent of units had been resold recently at a price lower than their purchase price.
This is a very low volume of resales making a loss as the national figure sits for houses at 8.1 percent and 13.3 percent for units.
Many Sydney council areas recorded no loss over the March quarter including Waverley, Ashfield, Burwood, Hunters Hill and Kogarah.
The council areas with the highest proportion of resales at a loss were Wollondilly (5.9%), Hurstville (5.7%) and Hawkesbury (4.8%).
The ups and downs in pricing can be typically explained through the classic economic theory of supply and demand and exuberance.
The rising volume of new stock on the Sydney market - both auction and private treaty - is likely to place further pressure on the market during spring, as volumes are sitting some 15 per cent higher than last October.
The Sydney property market is more likely to experience an extended plateau rather than any doomsday crash scenario due to the relatively low unemployment rate and heightened population growth.
CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless says that prices in Sydney will probably trend lower into 2018, although continued strong demand for housing, along with the likelihood that interest rates will remain low, will help to support a floor under housing prices.
I'd suggest much depends on Sydney investors who appear to have momentarily called time out in part because they are now paying higher interest rates after restrictive lending practices by banks.
The investors' response is an understandable reaction to policy initiatives by APRA, the financial regulator, for market cooling.
Residential investor activity has declined sharply in NSW as the latest data from the ABS reported that approved residential investor loans for buyers totalled $5.7 billion over July which was down 22 percent on June.
Sales data indicates that NSW investors were slightly more likely to incur a loss on the resale of their property than owner occupiers. Over the March quarter, 1.9 percent of investors resold their home at a loss compared to 1.8 percent of owner occupiers. 
Buying when everyone wants to sell increases the chance of quickly profiting from property, not that we've seen much flipping intent among buyers as the typical hold period has been six years. 
The time held is important, especially to sit out selling during downturns.
Sensing and tracking the price cycles can pay dividends for savvy home buyers and investors, as there are times when property purchasing can result in a wonderful early gain.
This article was first published in the Saturday Daily Telegraph.
 
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