UAE developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/arada">Arada</a> is continuing to unveil its billions of dollars of residential development it is set to deliver in Australia.

Following on its plans for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/arada-pitches-castle-hill-apartment-plans-ahead-of-2026-launch">431 apartments in Castle Hill</a>&nbsp;and the 2025 bail-out of construction firm Roberts &amp; Co so it can build its own developments, Arada&nbsp;has sought the NSW Government's approval for three towers in the Campsie town centre.

The project, dubbed One Campsie, has been designed by Woods Bagot and will deliver 346 apartments to Beamish Street across three interconnected towers rising 24, 32, and 39 storeys.

According to the Woods Bagot Architectural Design Report, the design seeks to “redefine the urban experience of a rapidly transforming town centre,” delivering housing above an activated ground plane that integrates civic and commercial uses. The design adopts a three-part vertical composition, stepping and articulating the tower to reduce visual bulk and respond to its varied urban interfaces.

<img alt="First Look: Arada unveils 39-storey mixed-use tower for Campsie town centre in State Significant Development bid" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f515807f-7277-4ea5-8b2b-a5718514f30a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campsie%20podium.png?VersionId=J3oSJpOvye8gpg1kjagODjdhOb0Cl28I" />

At street level, the scheme places significant emphasis on public domain upgrades. A new civic plaza is proposed opposite the Orion Theatre, alongside a landscaped pocket park and a through-site pedestrian link connecting Beamish Street to Campsie Street and Ninth Avenue. The Urban Design Justification Report states that the proposal “builds on Council’s Master Plan by applying a place-led urban design framework that responds to the site’s unique conditions and enhances pedestrian experience and public benefit.”

The documents note that the development aligns with the Master Plan’s intensification strategy for sites within walking distance of the Metro station, while seeking to retain solar access to key public spaces. As outlined in the Urban Design Report, the proposal delivers “intensification within walking distance of the Metro Station while retaining solar access to key parks."

<img alt="First Look: Arada unveils 39-storey mixed-use tower for Campsie town centre in State Significant Development bid" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="586ad606-a84f-49cc-b715-fc3ecb731205" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campsie%20podium%20a.png?VersionId=gNHaD.Os8yW4LVOdsJIdmmhlgQArs0Gm" />

Woods Bagot’s design narrative also draws on local history and Aboriginal cultural context. The Architectural Design Report references engagement with Wangal Country and the Cooks River landscape, seeking to embed a connection to Country through material selection, planting, and public art integration. The broader vision, as described in the report, is to create a building that functions as a “community catalyst, not only as a place to live, but as a vibrant destination for work and play that brings people together, supports local culture, and contributes meaningfully to the civic identity of Campsie.”

<img alt="First Look: Arada unveils 39-storey mixed-use tower for Campsie town centre in State Significant Development bid" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f1bc9a44-0c1a-4e3f-8b27-38070b0d2744" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_2.png?VersionId=1JmMWg6jOU1rPpS9hCxy8s8H48xc0EiM" />

Located at 124–142 Beamish Street and 16–18 Ninth Avenue, the site occupies a key stretch of Beamish Street, Campsie’s traditional high street, characterised by fine-grain retail, multicultural dining, and proximity to civic infrastructure including the Orion Theatre and Canterbury Civic Centre. The proposed civic plaza and pocket park aim to strengthen this interface, formalising connections between retail frontages, public transport, and community facilities.

If approved, One Campsie would mark one of the tallest and most ambitious additions to the suburb’s skyline, reflecting the broader shift toward higher-density living around transport nodes in Sydney’s middle-ring centres.

Joel Robinson

First Look: Arada files for trio of apartment towers in Campsie town centre

Syd​ney builder-developer Scion has lodged a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) for a 22-storey mixed-use tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/96-anzac-avenue-west-ryde-nsw-2114">96 Anzac Avenue, West Ryde</a>, marking a significant step in the transformation of the Victoria Road gateway precinct.

Designed by Turner, the proposal would replace an ageing two-storey commercial building with 145 apartments and 29 co-living rooms, above ground-floor retail and three basement levels of parking.

The 3,149 sqm site sits just 150 metres from West Ryde train station, at the edge of the suburb’s retail core and diagonally opposite Anzac Park. It occupies a prominent corner with frontages to both Anzac Avenue and Victoria Road, positioning it as a key transition point between established residential neighbourhoods and the commercial centre.

The scheme is being advanced under the Housing Delivery Authority pathway as a State Significant Development, alongside a concurrent rezoning to lift the site’s height and floor space ratio controls.

Turner says in the Architectural Design Report that the proposal "responds to a unique opportunity to support the revitalisation of West Ryde through the delivery of a landmark development that combines high-quality residential offerings with enhanced public realm and active ground plane uses.”

Scion will be pushing height almost five times higher than what had been pitched for the site before.

Turner says the increased scale aligns with Council’s strategic direction for the precinct, including the West Ryde Town Centre Revitalisation Strategy (2019), the Draft Masterplan (2021), and the West Ryde–Meadowbank Renewal Strategy (2023).

“The increased height and density proposed aligns with Council’s evolving strategic direction for the precinct, as outlined in the Draft Revitalisation Strategy (2019), the 2021 Draft Masterplan, and the broader West Ryde–Meadowbank Renewal Strategy (2023), which collectively call for higher density, transit-oriented development and design excellence."

Turner describes the vision as establishing “a contemporary, mixed-use development that contributes positively to the West Ryde town centre.”

<img alt="West Ryde" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c5c22c11-92b8-4ca6-b77b-b5848ae0176d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-02-12%20at%202.41.34%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=aom0z8azYDw7Hl6.A6vDbCom5ozZICn5" />

The architectural response has been shaped by the site’s gateway role along Victoria Road and its proximity to Anzac Park and surrounding heritage elements, including the Sydney Water pumping station opposite the site.

The design process also incorporated consultation around Connecting with Country principles. The design report outlines engagement with Cultural Heritage Consultants Artefact and Aunty Julie, a Burruberongal woman of the Darug Nation, informing planting selection, materiality and potential public art opportunities.

Turner says the scheme aims to optimise the site’s capacity while balancing yield and amenity.

“The proposed scheme seeks to optimise the site’s potential by balancing yield, amenity, and urban integration. It will deliver a high-quality, mixed-use precinct that supports West Ryde’s ongoing transformation into a connected, accessible, and liveable centre."

Scion recently completed the build of its own development, The Sterling in Lane Cove. They are currently building Chatham in West Ryde, just 500m from the new proposal. Those 62 apartments will complete later this year.

First look: Scion pitches tower plans for West Ryde

Mirvac’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/trielle-at-yarra-s-edge-docklands-16-point-park-crescent-docklands-vic-3008">Trielle</a> tower at Yarra’s Edge is steadily taking shape on the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/docklands-vic-3008">Docklands</a>&nbsp;waterfront, as the ASX-listed builder-developer tracks towards completion in the middle of 2027.

As buyer interest continues to consolidate around larger, owner-occupier-oriented apartments, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mirvac">Mirvac</a> has introduced a time-limited Lunar New Year settlement rebate across its two and three-bedroom residences.

Running from now until March 10 2026, the Lunar New Year promotion provides a settlement rebate of $28,888 on all two-bedroom apartments and $38,888 on three-bedroom homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114216 project_image_fid=3784]

Trielle forms part of Mirvac’s long-running Yarra’s Edge precinct and will deliver 188 apartments ranging from one to three bedrooms, alongside a limited number of larger-format residences and sub-penthouses, when it completes in mid-2027.

The tower occupies a rare north-facing riverfront position just two kilometres from Melbourne’s CBD, a location that continues to attract owner-occupiers seeking proximity to the city without sacrificing amenity or outlook.

Designed and built by Mirvac, Trielle places a strong emphasis on resident amenities and wellness-led living. A seven-storey podium will house a landscaped rooftop retreat featuring a 25-metre lap pool, spa and sauna, magnesium hot pool, biophilic gym, yoga and Pilates studio, and private treatment rooms, complemented by shared spaces including a resident library, dining room, cinema, golf simulator and flexible work hubs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114216 project_image_fid=3801]

Above the standard apartment collection, Mirvac has also revealed The Aerus Sub-Penthouses, a small release of half-floor residences positioned on the upper levels of the tower. Spanning between 269 and 301 square metres, these homes represent the largest offerings within Trielle and reflect the project’s broader design focus on generous proportions, natural materials and long-term liveability.

Construction of the $350 million tower is underway through Mirvac’s in-house construction arm, with the developer continuing to position Trielle toward owner-occupiers and downsizers looking for scale, services and certainty within an established inner-city precinct.

T&amp;C's apply.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=114216]

Buyers save big at Trielle, Melbourne, as Mirvac offers generous Lunar New Year incentive

Gold Coast developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Group</a> is set to fast-track construction on its $67 million residential project after being given the green light from the Gold Coast City Council.&nbsp;

Located at 7 and 9 Sixth Avenue, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-oasis-palm-beach-7-9-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Oasis</a> will continue Sherpa’s reshaping of Palm Beach and deliver residential solutions to a region that lacks supply, whilst offering incredible comparative value.&nbsp;

The project has already met high market acceptance with 45 per cent sold after launching late last year.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357459]

Sherpa Founder Christie Leet said the approval enables Sherpa to continue to play a major role in transforming one of Australia’s Hotspots, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a>, which has undergone a massive renaissance in the last five years.&nbsp;

“We are so grateful to have received the green light for Oasis, which means we can now direct our attention to commencing construction on a major project for Palm Beach as it transform,” said Leet.

“Flourish as a brand has received such positive feedback, and we are excited to move into the delivery phase of the second Flourish project in Palm Beach.”

&nbsp;

Oasis will deliver 47 corner apartments, in two- and three-bedroom layouts filled with natural light, catering to local downsizers and families, with apartments starting from $990,000.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357469]

Residents will have access to premium roof-top amenities with sweeping beach views, including a pool, gym, barbecue facilities, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunges and spa, creating a sanctuary to relax, unwind and connect.&nbsp;

Oasis will offer breathtaking ocean views to the north that can’t be built out – a rare feature in Palm Beach.&nbsp;

“Creating a multi-generational community is at the core of Flourish, we want the brand to appeal to those who are looking for a refined coastal lifestyle, as those who are searching for their first home, which is why Oasis has been designed as a more boutique offering,” Leet added.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357460]

Palm Beach is undergoing a transformation, where a flood of lifestyle buyers and a shortage of new projects have made it one of the most undersupplied markets in the city, with the suburb needing more than triple its supply to meet the growing demand.&nbsp;

“Palm Beach has such a unique and special character, and we hope to build on that, creating homes that locals are proud of,” said Mr Leet.

“Each apartment has been designed to capitalize on the stunning location, to offer a truly unmatched lifestyle in what is a Gold Coast hotspot.”

Oasis is a part of Sherpa’s Flourish story, which includes Amargo, Ovana and a new site at 1156-1164 Gold Coast Highway, all designed to offer attainable, lifestyle-focused residences, allowing locals to stay priced-in a market that continues to get more expensive.&nbsp;

With construction now underway by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/lps-group">LPS Group</a>, Oasis is poised to be completed by late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151449]

Sherpa fast-tracks Flourish Oasis construction in Palm Beach

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Developer JL Place is ensuring buyers at its Veil Brighton project have all the right ingredients to make a confident purchase.

To instil confidence in the market, the development was launched when construction was already well underway, helping to alleviate any concerns about the project proceeding. For a limited time, JL Place is now offering buyers the opportunity to secure a townhouse with a five per cent deposit. The initiative aims to assist those who may not have enough savings for a 10 per cent deposit but have sufficient funds to meet bank lending requirements at completion.

Several of the nine two- and three-bedroom townhouses, tucked away off the tree-lined Rooding Street, have already been snapped up, a sign of demand for&nbsp;low-maintenance, owner-occupier-focused housing in Brighton, which continues to outpace supply, particularly for homes that retain scale, privacy, and outdoor space.
</article>

Townhouses account for a relatively small share of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/brighton-vic-3186">Brighton</a>’s housing mix, yet they have become increasingly sought after by downsizers and local buyers seeking to remain in the suburb without the upkeep of a standalone home. At Veil, each residence is arranged across two levels and anchored by a generous private courtyard, allowing natural light to penetrate deep into the interiors while maintaining a strong sense of separation from the street.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7877 project_image_fid=355754]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/schmidt-pang-architects">Schmidt &amp; Pang</a>, the architecture has been intentionally restrained, presenting as a single, cohesive residence from Rooding Street rather than a conventional multi-dwelling development. Clean lines and robust materiality are softened by layered landscaping by John Patrick Landscape Architects, reinforcing the project’s emphasis on privacy and integration within its residential context.

Interiors favour a neutral, durable palette suited to long-term living, with oak flooring, grey-toned tiles, natural stone surfaces, and brushed nickel finishes throughout. Kitchens are equipped with Miele appliances and stone benchtops, while several homes include a ground-floor bedroom or flexible study, supporting accessibility and adaptability over time.

Sustainability has been embedded into the design, with each townhouse targeting a 6-star energy rating supported by double glazing, natural ventilation, high-grade insulation, LED lighting, and water-efficient fittings. Secure basement parking, bicycle storage, water tanks, and NBN readiness further position the homes for contemporary, lower-impact living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7877 project_image_fid=355771]

The introduction of the five per cent deposit structure aims to improve buyer financial flexibility while securing a foothold in Brighton ahead of completion, which is scheduled for late 2026. With prices starting from $1.529 million, the development has already recorded early sales momentum, with two residences secured prior to formal marketing.

Veil Brighton adds to JL PLACE’s growing portfolio of low-scale, architecturally driven residential projects, delivered in collaboration with builder <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/jeniton">JENITON</a>, whose involvement brings a further layer of delivery confidence to the project as construction continues on site.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7877]

JL Place offers five per cent deposits at Veil Brighton townhouses

Sydney Prices

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The Sydney housing market is starting to slow following more than five years of strong increases in dwelling values.
As the Sydney market slows there could be some upside for other housing markets where capital gains have been more sustainable and rental yields are higher.
Australia’s third largest city, Brisbane, has recently garnered more attention as a candidate for improved housing market conditions.
In this week’s blog we look at the historic relationship between housing market growth in Sydney and Brisbane in order to determine whether the slowdown in Sydney could translate into an acceleration in Brisbane.
 
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage1.png" alt="2017-10-09--annualchangeindwellingvalues" width="570" height="198">
The 30 year annual change chart above tends to indicate that after a surge in Sydney dwelling values Brisbane has followed suit thereafter.  
Following Sydney dwelling value growth peaking at 61.7% p.a. in August 1988, Brisbane dwelling value growth peaked at an annual rate of 35.3% in February 1989.  
Annual growth in Sydney dwelling values also peaked in January 2002 at 20.8% with Brisbane’s rate of growth not peaking until December 2003 at 30.7%.  
Keep in mind that outside of these two clear examples, a rise in Sydney value growth has not necessarily been met with a rise in Brisbane (or vice versa).
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage2.png" alt="2017-10-09--sydneydwellingvaluepremiumrelativetobrisbane" width="570" height="198">
  What the growth of Sydney values in 1988 and 2001 did have in common is that they resulted in a significant gap opening between values in Sydney and Brisbane.  
At its peak in August 1988, Sydney dwelling values were typically 104% more than Brisbane dwellings.  
At its height in September 2001, Sydney dwelling values were 107% higher than Brisbane dwelling prices.  
Recently the chart shows that the gap between values in Sydney and Brisbane has increased and at September 2017 the differential was 86%.  
The long-term average premium for Sydney dwellings over Brisbane is 55% indicating that the gap remains above the long-term average.  Interestingly, even taking a shorter time-frame the average gap has been 56% over the past 20 years and a lower 41% over the past decade.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage3.png" alt="2017-10-09--quarterlyinterstatemigrationfromnswtoqld" width="570" height="198">
  Queensland has historically been a popular migration destination for people choosing to leave New South Wales.  
The above chart highlights that following the surge in value growth and the widening of dwelling prices between Sydney and Brisbane, migration from New South Wales to Queensland has typically increased.  
Over the long-term, the average quarterly number of persons migrating from New South Wales to Queensland has been recorded at 12,376 persons.  
Migration from New South Wales to Queensland peaked over the March 1989 quarter at 18,259 persons and then averaged 14,461 persons per quarter from March 1989 to December 1991.  
Migration from New South Wales to Queensland peaked again in December 2002 at 18,129 persons and then averaged 15,392 persons per quarter from December 2002 to September 2004.
As migration from New South Wales to Queensland has recently picked-up, so far it has peaked at a much lower 13,487 persons over the December 2016 quarter which is only 9.0% above the long-term average.  
By comparison the 1989 peak saw migration to Queensland peak at 47.5% above the long-run average and the 2002 peak saw migration peak at 46.5% above the long-run average.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage4.png" alt="2017-10-09--annualchangeinemployment" width="570" height="198">
  Unless those people migrating from New South Wales to Queensland are retirees, employment opportunities must be a key consideration.  
Post the 1987 boom in Sydney, New South Wales employment growth was slowing while it accelerated in Queensland.  
Similarly in the early 2000’s employment growth had been greater in New South Wales than in Queensland however, by June 2001 Queensland’s employment was growing at a faster annual rate than New South Wales’ with Queensland employment growth consistently stronger than New South Wales all the way until January 2008.  
Over this period, dwelling value growth in Brisbane had consistently been stronger than growth in Sydney.  
Looking more recently, New South Wales has consistently recorded stronger annual employment growth than Queensland between September 2014 and March 2017.  Since April 2017, annual employment growth in Queensland has been greater than in New South Wales.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/20174-10-09-blogimage5.png" alt="2017-10-09--unemploymentratetrend" width="570" height="198">
  Although employment growth is important, the unemployment rate is also a consideration.  
Although job creation picked up in Queensland after 1987, Queensland’s unemployment rate was consistently higher than New South Wales’ until October 1991 when it was fairly similar to that of New South Wales.  
By August 1992 Queensland’s unemployment rate fell below New South Wales’ and remained lower until December 1994.  
The New South Wales unemployment rate was then consistently lower than Queensland’s until July 2004 with Queensland’s unemployment rate remaining lower than News South Wales’ from July 2004 until late 2009 (thankyou mining boom!).  
From February 2010 onwards, Queensland is yet to chalk up one month in which its unemployment rate is lower than New South Wales’.  Interestingly though, the gap between the New South Wales and Queensland unemployment rate is currently lower (1.1 basis points) than it was as the Sydney housing market was peaking in August 1988 (1.5 basis points) and January 2002 (1.9 basis points).
The trends presented here would generally suggest that Brisbane could be well positioned for a pick-up in value growth as the Sydney housing market slows.  
Keep in mind though that there have been instances in the past where value growth has surged in Sydney and it hasn’t been followed by a surge in Brisbane, so a lift in Brisbane growth is no certainty.  
A significant gap in the cost of housing between the two cities was evident in both 1989 and 2002 and it also evident currently.  As value growth rose in Brisbane, interstate migration from New South Wales hit levels significantly above the long-term average and although interstate migration is increasing it is yet to hit anything close to those previous highs.  Employment growth is accelerating in Queensland which may encourage an increasing number of people from New South Wales to Queensland and the differential in unemployment rate is smaller than it was in 1989 and 2002.
One other consideration is whether the same magnitude of people leaving New South Wales for Queensland will actually settle in Brisbane.  
Both the Gold and Sunshine Coasts are much bigger cities in their own right than they were in 1989 and 2002 plus connectivity with Brisbane is much better than it was previously, so perhaps these migrants will be more inclined to settle on one of the Coasts rather than Brisbane.  
Over the 12 months to September 2017, Brisbane dwelling values have increased by 2.9% while values on the Gold Coast are 5.4% higher over the year and Sunshine Coast values are 6.6%. 
In my opinion, before we can call a coming surge in Brisbane dwelling values we are going to need to see both more evidence that migrants are settling in Brisbane rather than the Gold and Sunshine Coasts.  Migration from New South Wales to Queensland is going to have to lift by a lot more than it has to-date.  Finally, Queensland will also need to see a sustained improvement in employment growth to lure more people across the border.
 
Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Sydney housing market starting to slow: will Brisbane benefit?

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Stand by for an avalanche of hysterical nonsense from mainstream media as the Sydney property market continues its gradual wind-down after four strong years of price growth. 
At Hotspotting we’ve been charting a steady decrease in sales activity for at least the past 18 months across the Sydney metro area. This inevitably has led to the slow-down in the price growth rates we are now seeing, alongside a reduction in auction clearance rates. 
We’re likely to see a similar scenario to the one that evolved in 2004, following the end of the previous boom, which stretched from 2001 to 2003. Back then there were plenty of predictions of price collapse from attention-seekers, but that did not occur. We simply saw an end to the previous price growth and values flat-lined for a few years. 
The evidence to date, both statistical and anecdotal, suggests we’ll see similar things this time. The conditions for significant price decline – economic recession, high unemployment, major oversupply and reckless lending – don’t exist. 
The key elements that drove the up-cycle – the strength of the NSW economy, the very high levels of infrastructure spending and the steady population growth – are still as prominent as ever. And of course we still have very low interest rates, though their influence is much less than the chattering economists would have us believe. 
But we’ve already seen some doomsayer headlines. 
One high-profile commentator, Robert Gottliebsen, claims that values of established apartments have fallen as much as 25 percent in some locations, but I can’t find any evidence of this and neither can anyone else I’ve spoken to. 
The consensus from property professionals at the coal-face is that the frenzy has dissipated and market behaviour has moderated, but there is, as yet, no sign of prices dropping. The evidence is that they have stopped rising, generally speaking. 
Mainstream media, always a great source of misinformation about property markets, over-reacted to the recent CoreLogic figures that suggested a small decrease in Sydney prices in October. That prompted headlines declaring the end of boom and, in some cases, a likely collapse in values. 
It also inspired some of the more shallow commentators, like those at UBS, to rush to be the first to declare the end of “the Australian property boom” – that fictitious entity that exists only in the minds of economists who don’t understand the workings of our many different real estate markets. 
Media should know better than to over-react to month-to-month figures, which are notoriously erratic and ultimately irrelevant. 
I remember similar mis-interpretations late last year when the month-to-month figures showed a 1.3% drop in Melbourne house values in November 2016. Media shouted that the Melbourne boom was over and values were falling. But the next set of monthly figures showed a 3.3% rise in December, at which point media screamed that the boom was back on. And, with further rises in subsequent months, those strident headlines about the collapse of the Melbourne market were quickly forgotten. 
I’ve spoken to a number of respected buyers agents and trustworthy selling agents and no one has seen any sign of the nose-diving values perceived by Gottliebsen in the secondhand apartment market. 
The principal of Snowden Parkes Real Estate, Tony Abboud, is as informed as anyone about Sydney apartment markets and he says the reality is the opposite to what Gottliebsen has claimed. 
The Australian columnist reckons new apartments are fine but secondhand ones are losing value rapidly. Abboud sees it quite differently. He says more and more buyers are opting for the established product, because it’s more affordable than the new stuff – and that’s underpinning values. 
“The existing apartments have been holding up well, because they have lower prices per square metre than the off-the-plan product,” Abboud says. “So it’s made them more attractive. Buyers are also more likely to buy something that’s already built because it offers certainty. 
“We are getting 20 or 30 calls a day from buyers. They are taking longer to make decisions, because the urgency has gone from the market, but there’s an intent to purchase.” 
Buyers agent Kate Hill from Adviseable has seen no evidence of price decline in the Sydney market. 
“The market has eased off but prices are holding at the moment,” she says. “There’s no evidence of a big drop in apartment values. There’s still relatively consistent demand. Markets have come off the boil and a lot more properties are being passed in at auction, but there’s no evidence I’ve seen of price decline.” 
Buyers agent Rich Harvey of propertybuyer says that if apartments were selling at a 25 percent discount he would be buying the first that comes on the market, but he has seen no sign of that occurring. 
He’s seeing mixed results in the auction market as far as pricing goes: some selling above reserve, some hitting the reserve price and some selling a little under reserve. 
“There’s certainly no sign of panic,” Harvey says. “Some vendors are being a bit more realistic and we’re seeing a degree of moderation in the market. It’s not quite a buyers’ market yet, but we are seeing opportunities.” 
He says he’s getting more calls from selling agents asking if they have buyers – rather than just opening the door and watching the buyers rush in. 
So, all signs point to a market which, unsurprisingly, is running out of puff after sprinting for four years. But we can expect Sydney to keep jogging steadily. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au 
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Avalanche of hysterical nonsense as Sydney property market continues gradual wind-down

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Despite periodic warnings from the Reserve Bank about crazy prices, the Sydney market place has just had a year that no-one foresaw in terms of continued strong price growth.
But Brian White, chairman of real estate agency Ray White, says that homeowners’ and buyers’ sensitivity to interest rates remained "acute."
Any talk of rising interest rates dampens buyer enthusiasm across the Sydney property market.
And when rates do actually rise, the doubts set in further as buyers pause putting their hand too deep into their pockets. And often not buying at all.
It was no surprise that the tail end of 2016's auctions has seen a seasonal turn in the pitch as the last minute boost in numbers hits the market.
Clearance rates that were in the 80s, now into the mid-70 as many buyers turned off - perhaps to come back next year.
The recent auction market fatique also had much to do with interest rate headlines.
Ever since the Trump triumph in the United State in early November, its been subject to much speculation.
And the past fortnight has seen the big banks make early adjustments, to fixed rates more so than the more popular variable home loans. 
The Commonwealth Bank, the country’s biggest lender lifted the rate of its popular 3-year fixed rate by 0.20 percentage points to 4.24 percent.
It also lifted its longer-term 5-year fixed rate by 0.60 percentage points to 4.74 percent.
CBA was following Westpac with a RateCity.com.au analysis showing a further 20 lenders had lifted rates 268 fixed products since November 1.  
Peter Arnold, data insights director at RateCity.com.au said fixed rates are based on market expectations of future rates and "are the best indicator that we’ve got that a variable rate hike on the way.".
“Previously, banks were betting on lower rates in the future but we’re seeing those expectations change by the day."
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All the recent talk and then movements will dictate the direction of house price growth in 2017, having already started to dampened the market.
There are two substantive price forecasts out for 2017. 
Housing price growth of between 5 and 6 percent is expected for 2017 for detached houses is tipped by Paul Bloxham, the HSBC chief economist.
He expects Sydney apartment prices to track at a slower pace than detached houses at between 0 and 4 percent.
Bloxham noted what he called a substantial 66 percent ramp-up in housing prices in Sydney since mid-2012.
He added some of the price growth was at a "worrisome pace" of Sydney price growth, particularly in 2014 and 2015.
But following a tightening in prudential settings starting in late 2014, housing price growth had slowd from double-digit growth last year to high single-digit rates this year.
The other forecast came from SQM's Louis Christopher who has more often got it right than wrong.
He suggests the Reserve Bank of Australia will need the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to reign in home lending once again, or lift interest rates, or do both to avert a dangerous housing bubble.
Christopher suggested a scenario house prices in Sydney could rise between 11 and 16 percent given a combination of factors including loose monetary policy, strong population growth and booming local economies.
The early November forecast assumed a stable interest rate environment, a stable exchange rate and no further home lending restrictions by APRA.
A rate rise by the RBA of 25bps would curtail the rising Sydney market to beween 8 and 13 percent for the year.
The article first appeared in the Saturday Telegraph
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

What will happen to Sydney prices in 2017?

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Sydney prices will rise by around 10 per cent over 2020, valuation firm Herron Todd White believe.
They expect new listings to increase in the first half of 2020, which should see price growth begin to moderate, however they still expect double digit growth in the harbour capital.
A price growth of 10 per cent will see prices move above the previous peak in the second half of the year.
"We expect prices to be fairly strong across most regions and sub-sectors however we expect the lower quartile to begin to improve at a quicker pace while new units in oversupplied suburbs may remain weaker for the first half of the year", the valuation firm advised.
"A number of infrastructure developments have recently opened, or will open in 2020, which will continue to strengthen prices in the suburbs benefiting from these links."
Sydney dwelling values saw a 5.3 per cent increase of 2019, kickstarted in the middle of the year when the fast-paced recovery began. The final quarter alone saw prices rise 6.2 per cent, according to CoreLogic.
HTW believe the jump was mostly due to an increase in demand after the elections and interest rate cuts, while new listing levels remained fairly subdued in comparison to previous years.
Herron Todd White's monthly reporting of the property market saw no changes to their property clock, which puts capitals and sub-regions in to stages of the property cycle.
They said time will tell how the bush fires will play out both economically and politically for the remainder of the year, and what impacts it may have on the wider property market.
 
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wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

Sydney prices to increase around 10 per cent over 2020: Herron Todd White

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Sydney house prices will remain close to unchanged in the year to December 2019 after falling by about 8% in 2018, according to the latest Domain forecasts.
Domain predicts house prices will grow modestly in 2020.
They believe that house prices will fall by about 12% from their peak of almost $1.2 million in June 2017 to a low point of just above $1 million in mid-2019.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/Sydney%20Domain%201.JPG" alt="">
Source: Domain
Sydney unit prices are expected to be more resilient than house prices.
Domain Economist Trent Wiltshire said: "Unit prices are expected to fall by about 3% over the year to December 2018, but then prices are expected to grow modestly over the next two years at about 3-5%.
"Sydney unit prices are predicted to fall by 6% from their peak of $769,000 in June 2017 to their lowest point of about $720,000.
"At this low point, Sydney unit prices will be back at their late-2016 level.
"The NSW government’s stamp duty concessions are also likely to support unit price growth."
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/Sydney%20Domain%202.JPG" alt="">
Source: Domain 
However, one risk to Sydney unit prices is whether the large pipeline of new unit construction is absorbed.
Given projected strong population growth, Domain is of the opinion that this will not result in city-wide price falls, although some areas with a particularly large amount of new construction may see prices remain weak.
"Tighter lending conditions have weighed heavily on Sydney property prices, particularly for more expensive properties, but we think this is likely to have played out by mid-2019," Wiltshire said. 
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%201.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%201.JPG" alt="">
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%202.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%202.JPG" alt="">
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Sydney house prices will drop 12% from peak: Domain

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It has been increasingly obvious Sydney housing affordability was deteriorating based on the number of years’ worth of income required to purchase a home.
The significant gap also exists between incomes and the cost of renting.
The situation is particularly dire for single income households.
Professor David Adamson, from the University of South Wales, noted in the recent Housing Affordability Income Gap report, that the geography of housing unaffordability was increasingly hurting middle-income families.
Historically rents have been more closely pegged to incomes than property prices, but this link appears to be weakening.
Adamson suggests we have a broken housing system as between 2006 and 2016, Sydney median rents have increased by 76% while incomes have increased by 51%.
"The analysis tells us that this isn’t simply an experience of the few but that occupations often seen as middle-class and well paid are increasingly experiencing housing stress in order to live close to their place of work."
The report concluded typical households face the choice between living a considerable distance from the city, or living in a one-bedroom apartment.
If neither option was practical, these households are effectively forced to accept living in housing stress.
Avoiding stress on a two-bedroom apartment in Sydney’s inner suburbs required a $121,000 income.
The report notes the median rent in Sydney is $530 per week which would be enough to secure a three-bedroom house in Blacktown, but not enough for a two-bedroom unit in Burwood.
The report found two-bedroom units in Sydney’s middle ring are affordable, however affordability income gaps exist in the Canada Bay, Hunters Hill, Ku-ring-gai and Willoughby LGAs. 
Sydney’s outer ring is affordable for renting, although income gaps exist for detached dwellings in Hornsby, Northern Beaches, Sutherland, and The Hills Shire.
Since June 2000, regions in Sydney’s west such as Blacktown and Fairfield have experienced rent increases of 125% and 145% respectively, compared to 87% in Mosman, and 94% in Woollahra.
The effect is even more pronounced in satellite cities on the outskirts of Sydney such as Newcastle, where rents are up 150%, and Wollongong with rents up by 168%. 
With relatively lower incomes, renters of detached dwellings in the outlying locations and regional NSW face housing stress too.
The report acknowledges the 30-year boom in house prices has made a lot of people extremely wealthy, "at least on paper".
It then suggests the wealth effect was "perhaps why so many have been willing to turn a blind eye to the economic and social fallout for so long".
It slammed policy makers for "aiding this wilful blindness by using cheap credit and immigration to create the illusion of an economy running on all cylinders".
The AHIG report noted dwelling prices have experienced modest declines over the year with Sydney leading the way, down 4.5%.
"It would be a mistake however for policy makers to take this as a sign that no action is required," the report concluded, noting for Australian housing to meet any accepted definition of affordability, prices would have to fall by 60% from the 2017 peak.
It conceded any major fall in prices could spark a deep and painful recession.
However a recession "sparked by a housing bust should be viewed as an opportunity to address the systemic problems that enabled the emergence of the crisis in the first place,' it ill-advisedly countenances.
This article first appeared in The Daily Telegraph. 
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Sydney's rental affordability is hurting middle-income families 

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Both houses and apartments in Sydney have begun their decline, according to the latest Herron Todd White property clock.
The valuation firm put Melbourne apartments at their peak, with Melbourne houses approaching their peak.
There are two capital cities with property markets at the bottom, Adelaide units and Darwin houses.
Brisbane, Canberra and Perth units are in decline. Perth houses are approaching the bottom of the market 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/6/Clock_Houses.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/6/Clock_Houses.jpg" alt="">
Sydney houses were at their peak last month and in September when HTT noted the "frenzied" house buying was fading.
Sydney houses and units were also deemed to be in decline in August. Sydney units stayed in decline in September and October.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/6/Clock_Units.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/6/Clock_Units.jpg" alt="">
 
 
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Sydney houses and apartments in price decline: HTW property clock

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Property, just like any other investment class, follows cycles where prices can rise, fall or plateau.
Sydney got a rare taste of a dip in September, according to CoreLogic, when it joined Darwin with values falling.
It was no great surprise, and not by much though.
After getting 80 percent percent higher over an extended five year upswing, Sydney dwelling values slipped 0.1 percent lower over the month to a $909,000 median, it’s first month-on-month decline in 17 months.
Ofcourse the headline figure is accompanied by increasing resale activity at lower prices.
The most recent CoreLogic pain gain report noted 2.6 percent of Sydney houses and 1.8 percent of units had been resold recently at a price lower than their purchase price.
This is a very low volume of resales making a loss as the national figure sits for houses at 8.1 percent and 13.3 percent for units.
Many Sydney council areas recorded no loss over the March quarter including Waverley, Ashfield, Burwood, Hunters Hill and Kogarah.
The council areas with the highest proportion of resales at a loss were Wollondilly (5.9%), Hurstville (5.7%) and Hawkesbury (4.8%).
The ups and downs in pricing can be typically explained through the classic economic theory of supply and demand and exuberance.
The rising volume of new stock on the Sydney market - both auction and private treaty - is likely to place further pressure on the market during spring, as volumes are sitting some 15 per cent higher than last October.
The Sydney property market is more likely to experience an extended plateau rather than any doomsday crash scenario due to the relatively low unemployment rate and heightened population growth.
CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless says that prices in Sydney will probably trend lower into 2018, although continued strong demand for housing, along with the likelihood that interest rates will remain low, will help to support a floor under housing prices.
I'd suggest much depends on Sydney investors who appear to have momentarily called time out in part because they are now paying higher interest rates after restrictive lending practices by banks.
The investors' response is an understandable reaction to policy initiatives by APRA, the financial regulator, for market cooling.
Residential investor activity has declined sharply in NSW as the latest data from the ABS reported that approved residential investor loans for buyers totalled $5.7 billion over July which was down 22 percent on June.
Sales data indicates that NSW investors were slightly more likely to incur a loss on the resale of their property than owner occupiers. Over the March quarter, 1.9 percent of investors resold their home at a loss compared to 1.8 percent of owner occupiers. 
Buying when everyone wants to sell increases the chance of quickly profiting from property, not that we've seen much flipping intent among buyers as the typical hold period has been six years. 
The time held is important, especially to sit out selling during downturns.
Sensing and tracking the price cycles can pay dividends for savvy home buyers and investors, as there are times when property purchasing can result in a wonderful early gain.
This article was first published in the Saturday Daily Telegraph.
 
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