ASX-listed developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/stockland">Stockland</a>&nbsp;is continuing its push back into the new apartment market, filing plans for a prominent gateway site between Collingwood and East Melbourne.

The development giant, which moved back into the new apartment space when it announced Stanton Place in Sydney's Rosebery and have since filed plans for a 50-storey tower, are jumping into the off the plan Melbourne market.

They are hoping to create a mixed-use neighbourhood precinct for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/79-81-victoria-parade-collingwood-vic-3066">79-81 Victoria Parade</a>, replacing an existing commercial building with a scheme by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/john-wardle-architects">Wardle</a>&nbsp;for 478 apartments,&nbsp;ground-floor retail, new public open spaces and a publicly accessible pedestrian laneway.

<img alt="First look: Stockland plans new mixed-use neighbourhood precinct for Collingwood gateway site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="72dbbca9-3918-4073-afad-a0c0c35be8e7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/stockland%20pers.png?VersionId=bzMVUKKxvwuNK1m0v_td126Rgct32uk_" />

The design report identifies the public realm as a central driver of the proposal.

"Collingwood has limited access to high-quality parks and public open space, and the proposal delivers valuable new areas for respite, social interaction and fine-grain retail activity."

The development would deliver a diverse mix of housing, including studio, one, two and three-bedroom apartments alongside townhouse-style residences. Two basement levels are proposed beneath the development, providing resident and retail parking as well as extensive bicycle facilities.

Wardle's design draws heavily on Collingwood's industrial character, using articulated building forms, brickwork and robust materials inspired by the suburb's warehouse and manufacturing heritage. The built form has been broken into a series of smaller volumes to better respond to the surrounding streetscape while extensive communal gardens, rooftop amenities and shared resident spaces are integrated throughout the project.

<img alt="First look: Stockland plans new mixed-use neighbourhood precinct for Collingwood gateway site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7b2135ed-65df-4253-ad53-f216f06bd467" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/stockland%20podium.png?VersionId=l1B6Hqn8zs772VxH6L1fDPg0KHshan9v" />

The planning documents describe the existing office building as offering little engagement with the public realm, with the redevelopment intended to create a more permeable and active neighbourhood destination.

"The proposed scheme presents a significant opportunity to deliver a vibrant retail plaza and a local neighbourhood hub serving both existing and future Collingwood residents."

The 79–81 Victoria Parade site occupies a strategic location about 1.5 kilometres east of Melbourne's CBD, at the threshold between Collingwood and East Melbourne. It is well served by tram services along Victoria Parade and sits within walking distance of St Vincent's Hospital, Fitzroy Gardens, the Fitzroy activity centre and a broad range of employment, retail and hospitality destinations.

Joel Robinson

Stockland plans new mixed-use neighbourhood precinct for Collingwood gateway site

An 1880s timber cottage that has survived Kangaroo Point's transformation from riverside suburb to high-density apartment precinct is set to become the centrepiece of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/zephyr">Zephyr Group</a>'s proposed Banksia development.

Rather than see the locally heritage-listed Alpha Cottage as an obstacle to navigate, plans integrate the landmark home into a new 18-storey residential tower, giving one of the suburb's oldest surviving residences a new role as the project's communal hub.

The development application covers a 1,177 sqm amalgamated site at 127-133 Lambert Street and 30 Shafston Avenue, where Zephyr Group plans to deliver 64 apartments above three basement levels. Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/joe-adsett-architects">Joe Adsett Architects</a>, the proposal carefully weaves the retained heritage cottage into a contemporary residential scheme, with the tower elevated above the historic building to preserve its presence within the Lambert Street streetscape.

<img alt="First look: Zephyr Group's Banksia to wrap new Kangaroo Point tower around 1880s Alpha Cottage" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f9dc5bdb-d691-4c60-bf2b-c3ed405a3e75" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Banksia.png?VersionId=Jh4bjlewU.o8HXWt0V4KaFA_lPcF7KWM" />

Named after the native Australian Banksia flower, the project draws inspiration from its distinctive form through curved balconies, sculpted planter boxes and cascading subtropical landscaping that soften the building's profile.

As the design report explains: "The tower's identity is defined by its feature facade, drawing direct inspiration from the Banksia wildflower. The building departs from traditional rigidity through the use of elegant, GRC-moulded planter boxes that appear as if shaped by the breeze."

Plans propose 64 apartments, comprising 32 two-bedroom and 32 three-bedroom residences, across an 18-storey tower. Residents would have access to rooftop amenities including a swimming pool, spa, gym, sauna, private cinema, dining spaces and landscaped recreation areas, while more than half the site is dedicated to planting and open space.

<img alt="First look: Zephyr Group's Banksia to wrap new Kangaroo Point tower around 1880s Alpha Cottage" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="16041b5f-033e-47fa-8fbe-9886e072c1f2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pool.png?VersionId=kpx5w4EbLx0_TdWfDoD1vrSs0_cZ5Ao1" />

The heritage component is the defining feature of the proposal. Constructed in the early 1880s and occupied from at least 1883, Alpha Cottage is recognised by Brisbane City Council as an important surviving example of Kangaroo Point's nineteenth-century residential development and as a representative transverse-gable timber cottage. Despite extensive redevelopment across the peninsula, the building has retained a high degree of its original form and internal fabric.

As part of the redevelopment, the cottage will be carefully relocated a short distance within its original allotment to facilitate construction before being returned to a prominent position along Lambert Street. Original verandah elements will be dismantled, catalogued and reinstated, while significant internal features, including timber flooring, wall linings, joinery, doors, windows and hardware, will be retained. Later additions, including the enclosed rear verandah, will be removed to better reveal the building's original form.

Once restored, Alpha Cottage will accommodate the building manager's office, mail room and parcel facilities, providing an active everyday use that supports its long-term conservation rather than preserving it as a static display. The heritage strategy also maintains landscaped space around the building, allowing it to remain visually distinct beneath the new tower.

<img alt="First look: Zephyr Group's Banksia to wrap new Kangaroo Point tower around 1880s Alpha Cottage" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="43b027e1-576e-4624-a66c-7cc54ea8b7be" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/banksia%20tower.png?VersionId=2W6E2yfkj2AQlWlLeV986grA5zB9f817" />

The Heritage Impact Assessment concludes that "the proposal secures the ongoing occupation, maintenance and conservation of Alpha Cottage," finding the development would result in "no more than a minor impact on the cultural heritage significance" of the building while ensuring its long-term future.

Joe Adsett Architects have designed the tower to sit above the heritage building rather than overwhelm it, creating a clear visual separation between old and new. The development's flowing balconies, integrated planting and organic façade respond to Brisbane's subtropical climate while complementing the restored cottage below.

Banksia occupies a prominent corner in Kangaroo Point within walking distance of the Kangaroo Point Bridge, Brisbane River, ferry services, QUT, the CBD and the Woolloongabba precinct. The site also benefits from direct access to active transport infrastructure and sits within an area earmarked for continued higher-density residential growth.

Zephyr Group's Banksia to wrap new Kangaroo Point tower around 1880s Alpha Cottage

Buying into a masterplanned community often means committing to a vision still years from taking shape. At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kew-tallawong-23-27-schofields-road-tallawong-nsw-2762">Kew Tallawong</a>, that vision is already visible.

Residents have moved into the completed first stage, landscaped spaces are established, and the next chapter is now underway. Stage 1 has been completed and settled, with Stage 2 now selling off-the-plan.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a>, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kew-tallawong-23-27-schofields-road-tallawong-nsw-2762">Kew Tallawong</a> combines attainable apartment living with sustainability initiatives rarely seen at this price point, including rooftop solar, battery storage and a resident EV-sharing program.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6RNt3AvtBpI?si=JUhuCV2ZRXsYaoJZ" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

Located on Schofi​elds Road, just moments from Tal​lawong Metro Station and Schof​ields Train Station, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kew-tallawong-23-27-schofields-road-tallawong-nsw-2762">Kew Tallawong</a> has been designed to appeal to a broad mix of buyers, from first-home purchasers looking for a foothold in Sy​dney's property market to downsizers seeking a connected, low-maintenance lifestyle.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kew-tallawong-23-27-schofields-road-tallawong-nsw-2762">Kew Tallawong</a> has been conceived as a thoughtfully planned masterplanned community that will evolve over multiple stages, with buyers now able to secure one, two and three-bedroom apartments within a neighbourhood that is already beginning to establish its identity.

One of the project's defining features is its focus on sustainability. Solar energy systems, battery storage and future EV charging infrastructure have been incorporated throughout the development, reflecting a long-term approach to both environmental performance and everyday convenience.

Sustainability sits at the centre of the development's vision, with solar energy systems, battery storage and future EV charging infrastructure integrated throughout the community.

That emphasis on future-ready living extends beyond the technology. Landscaped communal gardens, outdoor gathering spaces and plans for a future retail precinct aim to create a neighbourhood where residents can access daily conveniences without travelling far from home.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149637 project_image_fid=351027]

The apartments themselves have been designed with liveability front of mind. Rather than chasing maximum density, the focus has been placed on creating practical homes with generous natural light, usable layouts and strong connections to outdoor space.

Importantly, these design principles have been applied consistently across the one, two and three-bedroom apartment offerings.

The appeal of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kew-tallawong-23-27-schofields-road-tallawong-nsw-2762">Kew Tallawong</a> is also closely linked to its location within Syd​ney's rapidly evolving north-west growth corridor. Over the past decade, major infrastructure investment has transformed the area, with new transport links, business precincts and community facilities reshaping suburbs like Talla​wong and Schofiel​ds.

The agent says buyers are increasingly recognising the area's long-term potential.

"Typical buyers that we're finding across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kew-tallawong-23-27-schofields-road-tallawong-nsw-2762">Kew Tallawong</a> especially are your first-home buyers, your investors, your upsizers as well as your downsizers," Hawes says.

Connectivity remains one of the project's strongest drawcards. Residents have access to both Tallaw​ong Metro Station and Schofi​elds Train Station, providing links to the Sydn​ey CBD, Norw​est Business Park, Macquari​e Park and other major employment hubs. Retail centres including Rous​e Hill Town Centre and Sch​ofields Village are also nearby, alongside schools, parks and future healthcare infrastructure.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149637 project_image_fid=351031]

For Stage 1 resident Roji, it is the balance between convenience and comfort that has defined the experience of living at Kew.

"For me, it's a balance of quality and convenience," she says. "Everything I need is right here."

"If I wanted to catch the train, Scho​fields Station is just around the corner. Tallaw​ong Metro connects me to the city."

More importantly, she says, the development has delivered something that cannot be measured in floorplans or specifications.

"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kew-tallawong-23-27-schofields-road-tallawong-nsw-2762">Kew Tallawong</a> feels like home."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149637 project_image_fid=351024]

As Stage 2 enters the market, that lived experience may be one of the project's strongest selling points. Buyers are not purchasing into an untested concept or a future promise. They are joining a community that is already taking shape.

Ongoing investment in transport, retail, healthcare and public open space continues to strengthen the appeal of Syd​ney's north-west growth corridor, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kew-tallawong-23-27-schofields-road-tallawong-nsw-2762">Kew Tallawong</a>'s established first stage provides buyers with a tangible sense of the community's future direction.

For a limited time, buyer can secure a new home at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kew-tallawong-23-27-schofields-road-tallawong-nsw-2762">Kew Tallawong</a> with just a $10,000.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=149637]

Kew Tallawong: A growing community taking shape in Sydney's north-west

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/freecity">Freecity</a> has received development approval for its 51-storey mixed-use tower at 153-157 Walker Street, North Sydney, set to be one of the tallest mixed-use residential-led buildings in one of Sydney’s most sought-after commercial and residential addresses.

Lodged as a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) through the Housing Delivery Authority (HDA) pathway and approved by the NSW Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure following a comprehensive public exhibition and submissions process, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/153-walker-street-north-sydney-nsw-2060">the project</a> will deliver 296 apartments, alongside a 170-room, luxury hotel, activated retail and significant public domain improvements.

Situated just 200 metres from Victoria Cross Metro Station, on one of the largest developable sites in North Sydney, the development will rise to 234 metres, making it one of the tallest buildings in the suburb. With an end value of approximately $1.5 billion, the project responds directly to the NSW Government’s mandate to accelerate housing delivery in well-located, transit-connected areas.

<img alt="Freecity gets green light for mixed-use residential and hotel tower in North Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="192ec455-94bf-4e01-83ef-922b1b269d67" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Freecity%20-%20Walker%20Street%20North%20Sydney%201%20RESIZED%20.jpg?VersionId=Bzqp0SBHCDvLAHjA4QXkjuGoOEIh73Jl" />

The apartment mix will cater to a broad range of buyers, with 65 studio and one-bedroom apartments, 139 two-bedroom residences, 35 three-bedroom apartments, 48 four-bedroom homes, and nine penthouses. Residents will have access to a dedicated amenity level on Level 33, featuring a swimming pool with views towards the Harbour Bridge, Sydney Opera House and North Sydney CBD, as well as a gym, library, shared kitchen, lounge and outdoor entertaining areas.

The hotel will occupy the lower six levels of the building and include meeting and function spaces, a wellness centre with gym, yoga studio, swimming pool and sauna, further strengthening North Sydney's growing hospitality offering.

At ground level, the development has been designed to improve pedestrian connections through the precinct. More than 700 sqm of retail space will activate the street frontage, while a landscaped through-site link connecting Walker Street, Little Walker Street and Doris Fitton Park will provide new public open space with seating, paving and extensive native landscaping.

Freecity Group Co-Founder and Joint CEO Tony Sun said the project represents one of the most significant development opportunities currently available in North Sydney.

"This is one of the most significant development sites in North Sydney and it comes at a pivotal moment for the precinct," Sun said.

"North Sydney is undergoing a genuine transformation, and this project will contribute housing the city urgently needs while creating a landmark destination."

Executive Director of Development Michael Romano said demand for both residential and hotel accommodation would continue to strengthen as the Metro precinct matures.

"The structural demand for high-quality housing and hotel accommodation in North Sydney is compelling, and will only grow as the precinct continues to evolve around the new Metro station," Romano said.

Architectus has designed the tower, orientating the apartments to maximise views towards Sydney Harbour while introducing a sculpted façade intended to respond to light, wind and the surrounding skyline.

Architectus Principal Marko Damic said the design sought to create a tower that contributes to the public realm as much as the skyline.

"We wanted to design a tower that doesn't just sit in the skyline but actively participates and contributes to city life," Damic said.

First look: Freecity gets green light for mixed-use apartment and hotel tower in North Sydney

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/abadeen">Abadeen</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">PERIFA</a> have celebrated the topping out of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/putney-wharf-harbourfront-precinct-20-waterview-street-putney-nsw-2112">Putney Wharf,</a> marking a significant milestone in the delivery of one of Syd​ney's most anticipated waterfront communities.

Located on Sydney's harbourfront at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/putney-nsw-2112">Putney</a>, the project has now reached its highest structural point, with construction progressing strongly towards completion in 2027. 
&nbsp; 
The milestone was celebrated on-site with project partners Phoenix Property Investors, Mitsubishi Estate Asia, Versatile Construction, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, consultants and stakeholders, to recognise the collective effort behind the transformation of the historic waterfront site into a vibrant new residential, marina and lifestyle destination.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=13962 project_image_fid=362240] 
&nbsp; 
<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/putney-wharf-harbourfront-precinct-20-waterview-street-putney-nsw-2112">Putney Wharf</a> will deliver a mix of waterfront residences and terraces, complemented by a private 36-berth marina, waterfront dining opportunities and a revitalised foreshore designed to reconnect the community with the river's edge. 
&nbsp; 
Abadeen Executive Chairman and Founder Justin Brown said the project represented a rare opportunity to create the next chapter in Sydn​ey's long history of successful waterfront precincts. 
&nbsp; 
"Throughout Sydney, some of the city's most sought-after addresses have emerged from carefully considered waterfront precincts such as Woolloom​ooloo Wharf, Walsh Bay and Breakfast Point," Brown said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=13962 project_image_fid=362566] 
&nbsp; 
"What makes these places so successful is that they become much more than residential developments," Brown said.

"They bring together homes, hospitality, marina facilities, public spaces and a strong sense of community in locations where future supply is incredibly limited."

Brown has long described absolute waterfront land in Sy​dney as "finite."

"Once these opportunities are developed, they are rarely replicated. That's why Syd​ney's waterfront precincts have consistently demonstrated strong demand and long-term value growth over many decades. 
&nbsp; 
"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/putney-wharf-harbourfront-precinct-20-waterview-street-putney-nsw-2112">Putney Wharf</a> is one of the few remaining opportunities to secure a residence within a masterplanned waterfront community that combines direct water access, marina ownership opportunities and a genuine village lifestyle just moments from the Sy​dney CBD."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=13962 project_image_fid=362564] 
&nbsp; 
PERIFA Founder and Managing Director Fabrizio Perilli said the project reflected a shared commitment to delivering exceptional places that create long-term value for residents and the broader community. 
&nbsp; 
"The topping out milestone is a significant achievement for the Versatile Group and a testament to the collaboration between all project partners, consultants and contractors involved," Perilli said. 
&nbsp; 
"Beyond the residences themselves, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/putney-wharf-harbourfront-precinct-20-waterview-street-putney-nsw-2112">Putney Wharf</a> will establish a new waterfront destination that celebrates the history, character and lifestyle of this unique location while creating a lasting legacy for future generations."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=13962 project_image_fid=291195] 
&nbsp; 
Construction is being delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/versatile">Versatile Construction</a>, with structural works now substantially complete across the precinct. Attention will progressively shift to the construction of the waterview terraces, apartment façades, services and interior fit-out works over the coming months. 
&nbsp; 
With limited residences and marina berths remaining, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/putney-wharf-harbourfront-precinct-20-waterview-street-putney-nsw-2112">Putney Wharf</a> continues to attract strong interest from owner occupiers and downsizers seeking a premium waterfront lifestyle within close proximity to Putne​y Village, Rh​odes, Top Ry​de and the Syd​ney CBD. 
&nbsp; 
As one of the last opportunities to secure a residence within a new masterplanned waterfront community on Sy​dney Harbour, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/putney-wharf-harbourfront-precinct-20-waterview-street-putney-nsw-2112">Putney Wharf</a> is expected to remain a highly sought-after address for years to come.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=13962]

Abadeen, PERIFA, top out Putney Wharf harbourfront precinct

Sydney Prices

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The Sydney housing market is starting to slow following more than five years of strong increases in dwelling values.
As the Sydney market slows there could be some upside for other housing markets where capital gains have been more sustainable and rental yields are higher.
Australia’s third largest city, Brisbane, has recently garnered more attention as a candidate for improved housing market conditions.
In this week’s blog we look at the historic relationship between housing market growth in Sydney and Brisbane in order to determine whether the slowdown in Sydney could translate into an acceleration in Brisbane.
 
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage1.png" alt="2017-10-09--annualchangeindwellingvalues" width="570" height="198">
The 30 year annual change chart above tends to indicate that after a surge in Sydney dwelling values Brisbane has followed suit thereafter.  
Following Sydney dwelling value growth peaking at 61.7% p.a. in August 1988, Brisbane dwelling value growth peaked at an annual rate of 35.3% in February 1989.  
Annual growth in Sydney dwelling values also peaked in January 2002 at 20.8% with Brisbane’s rate of growth not peaking until December 2003 at 30.7%.  
Keep in mind that outside of these two clear examples, a rise in Sydney value growth has not necessarily been met with a rise in Brisbane (or vice versa).
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage2.png" alt="2017-10-09--sydneydwellingvaluepremiumrelativetobrisbane" width="570" height="198">
  What the growth of Sydney values in 1988 and 2001 did have in common is that they resulted in a significant gap opening between values in Sydney and Brisbane.  
At its peak in August 1988, Sydney dwelling values were typically 104% more than Brisbane dwellings.  
At its height in September 2001, Sydney dwelling values were 107% higher than Brisbane dwelling prices.  
Recently the chart shows that the gap between values in Sydney and Brisbane has increased and at September 2017 the differential was 86%.  
The long-term average premium for Sydney dwellings over Brisbane is 55% indicating that the gap remains above the long-term average.  Interestingly, even taking a shorter time-frame the average gap has been 56% over the past 20 years and a lower 41% over the past decade.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage3.png" alt="2017-10-09--quarterlyinterstatemigrationfromnswtoqld" width="570" height="198">
  Queensland has historically been a popular migration destination for people choosing to leave New South Wales.  
The above chart highlights that following the surge in value growth and the widening of dwelling prices between Sydney and Brisbane, migration from New South Wales to Queensland has typically increased.  
Over the long-term, the average quarterly number of persons migrating from New South Wales to Queensland has been recorded at 12,376 persons.  
Migration from New South Wales to Queensland peaked over the March 1989 quarter at 18,259 persons and then averaged 14,461 persons per quarter from March 1989 to December 1991.  
Migration from New South Wales to Queensland peaked again in December 2002 at 18,129 persons and then averaged 15,392 persons per quarter from December 2002 to September 2004.
As migration from New South Wales to Queensland has recently picked-up, so far it has peaked at a much lower 13,487 persons over the December 2016 quarter which is only 9.0% above the long-term average.  
By comparison the 1989 peak saw migration to Queensland peak at 47.5% above the long-run average and the 2002 peak saw migration peak at 46.5% above the long-run average.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage4.png" alt="2017-10-09--annualchangeinemployment" width="570" height="198">
  Unless those people migrating from New South Wales to Queensland are retirees, employment opportunities must be a key consideration.  
Post the 1987 boom in Sydney, New South Wales employment growth was slowing while it accelerated in Queensland.  
Similarly in the early 2000’s employment growth had been greater in New South Wales than in Queensland however, by June 2001 Queensland’s employment was growing at a faster annual rate than New South Wales’ with Queensland employment growth consistently stronger than New South Wales all the way until January 2008.  
Over this period, dwelling value growth in Brisbane had consistently been stronger than growth in Sydney.  
Looking more recently, New South Wales has consistently recorded stronger annual employment growth than Queensland between September 2014 and March 2017.  Since April 2017, annual employment growth in Queensland has been greater than in New South Wales.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/20174-10-09-blogimage5.png" alt="2017-10-09--unemploymentratetrend" width="570" height="198">
  Although employment growth is important, the unemployment rate is also a consideration.  
Although job creation picked up in Queensland after 1987, Queensland’s unemployment rate was consistently higher than New South Wales’ until October 1991 when it was fairly similar to that of New South Wales.  
By August 1992 Queensland’s unemployment rate fell below New South Wales’ and remained lower until December 1994.  
The New South Wales unemployment rate was then consistently lower than Queensland’s until July 2004 with Queensland’s unemployment rate remaining lower than News South Wales’ from July 2004 until late 2009 (thankyou mining boom!).  
From February 2010 onwards, Queensland is yet to chalk up one month in which its unemployment rate is lower than New South Wales’.  Interestingly though, the gap between the New South Wales and Queensland unemployment rate is currently lower (1.1 basis points) than it was as the Sydney housing market was peaking in August 1988 (1.5 basis points) and January 2002 (1.9 basis points).
The trends presented here would generally suggest that Brisbane could be well positioned for a pick-up in value growth as the Sydney housing market slows.  
Keep in mind though that there have been instances in the past where value growth has surged in Sydney and it hasn’t been followed by a surge in Brisbane, so a lift in Brisbane growth is no certainty.  
A significant gap in the cost of housing between the two cities was evident in both 1989 and 2002 and it also evident currently.  As value growth rose in Brisbane, interstate migration from New South Wales hit levels significantly above the long-term average and although interstate migration is increasing it is yet to hit anything close to those previous highs.  Employment growth is accelerating in Queensland which may encourage an increasing number of people from New South Wales to Queensland and the differential in unemployment rate is smaller than it was in 1989 and 2002.
One other consideration is whether the same magnitude of people leaving New South Wales for Queensland will actually settle in Brisbane.  
Both the Gold and Sunshine Coasts are much bigger cities in their own right than they were in 1989 and 2002 plus connectivity with Brisbane is much better than it was previously, so perhaps these migrants will be more inclined to settle on one of the Coasts rather than Brisbane.  
Over the 12 months to September 2017, Brisbane dwelling values have increased by 2.9% while values on the Gold Coast are 5.4% higher over the year and Sunshine Coast values are 6.6%. 
In my opinion, before we can call a coming surge in Brisbane dwelling values we are going to need to see both more evidence that migrants are settling in Brisbane rather than the Gold and Sunshine Coasts.  Migration from New South Wales to Queensland is going to have to lift by a lot more than it has to-date.  Finally, Queensland will also need to see a sustained improvement in employment growth to lure more people across the border.
 
Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Sydney housing market starting to slow: will Brisbane benefit?

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Stand by for an avalanche of hysterical nonsense from mainstream media as the Sydney property market continues its gradual wind-down after four strong years of price growth. 
At Hotspotting we’ve been charting a steady decrease in sales activity for at least the past 18 months across the Sydney metro area. This inevitably has led to the slow-down in the price growth rates we are now seeing, alongside a reduction in auction clearance rates. 
We’re likely to see a similar scenario to the one that evolved in 2004, following the end of the previous boom, which stretched from 2001 to 2003. Back then there were plenty of predictions of price collapse from attention-seekers, but that did not occur. We simply saw an end to the previous price growth and values flat-lined for a few years. 
The evidence to date, both statistical and anecdotal, suggests we’ll see similar things this time. The conditions for significant price decline – economic recession, high unemployment, major oversupply and reckless lending – don’t exist. 
The key elements that drove the up-cycle – the strength of the NSW economy, the very high levels of infrastructure spending and the steady population growth – are still as prominent as ever. And of course we still have very low interest rates, though their influence is much less than the chattering economists would have us believe. 
But we’ve already seen some doomsayer headlines. 
One high-profile commentator, Robert Gottliebsen, claims that values of established apartments have fallen as much as 25 percent in some locations, but I can’t find any evidence of this and neither can anyone else I’ve spoken to. 
The consensus from property professionals at the coal-face is that the frenzy has dissipated and market behaviour has moderated, but there is, as yet, no sign of prices dropping. The evidence is that they have stopped rising, generally speaking. 
Mainstream media, always a great source of misinformation about property markets, over-reacted to the recent CoreLogic figures that suggested a small decrease in Sydney prices in October. That prompted headlines declaring the end of boom and, in some cases, a likely collapse in values. 
It also inspired some of the more shallow commentators, like those at UBS, to rush to be the first to declare the end of “the Australian property boom” – that fictitious entity that exists only in the minds of economists who don’t understand the workings of our many different real estate markets. 
Media should know better than to over-react to month-to-month figures, which are notoriously erratic and ultimately irrelevant. 
I remember similar mis-interpretations late last year when the month-to-month figures showed a 1.3% drop in Melbourne house values in November 2016. Media shouted that the Melbourne boom was over and values were falling. But the next set of monthly figures showed a 3.3% rise in December, at which point media screamed that the boom was back on. And, with further rises in subsequent months, those strident headlines about the collapse of the Melbourne market were quickly forgotten. 
I’ve spoken to a number of respected buyers agents and trustworthy selling agents and no one has seen any sign of the nose-diving values perceived by Gottliebsen in the secondhand apartment market. 
The principal of Snowden Parkes Real Estate, Tony Abboud, is as informed as anyone about Sydney apartment markets and he says the reality is the opposite to what Gottliebsen has claimed. 
The Australian columnist reckons new apartments are fine but secondhand ones are losing value rapidly. Abboud sees it quite differently. He says more and more buyers are opting for the established product, because it’s more affordable than the new stuff – and that’s underpinning values. 
“The existing apartments have been holding up well, because they have lower prices per square metre than the off-the-plan product,” Abboud says. “So it’s made them more attractive. Buyers are also more likely to buy something that’s already built because it offers certainty. 
“We are getting 20 or 30 calls a day from buyers. They are taking longer to make decisions, because the urgency has gone from the market, but there’s an intent to purchase.” 
Buyers agent Kate Hill from Adviseable has seen no evidence of price decline in the Sydney market. 
“The market has eased off but prices are holding at the moment,” she says. “There’s no evidence of a big drop in apartment values. There’s still relatively consistent demand. Markets have come off the boil and a lot more properties are being passed in at auction, but there’s no evidence I’ve seen of price decline.” 
Buyers agent Rich Harvey of propertybuyer says that if apartments were selling at a 25 percent discount he would be buying the first that comes on the market, but he has seen no sign of that occurring. 
He’s seeing mixed results in the auction market as far as pricing goes: some selling above reserve, some hitting the reserve price and some selling a little under reserve. 
“There’s certainly no sign of panic,” Harvey says. “Some vendors are being a bit more realistic and we’re seeing a degree of moderation in the market. It’s not quite a buyers’ market yet, but we are seeing opportunities.” 
He says he’s getting more calls from selling agents asking if they have buyers – rather than just opening the door and watching the buyers rush in. 
So, all signs point to a market which, unsurprisingly, is running out of puff after sprinting for four years. But we can expect Sydney to keep jogging steadily. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au 
twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Avalanche of hysterical nonsense as Sydney property market continues gradual wind-down

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Despite periodic warnings from the Reserve Bank about crazy prices, the Sydney market place has just had a year that no-one foresaw in terms of continued strong price growth.
But Brian White, chairman of real estate agency Ray White, says that homeowners’ and buyers’ sensitivity to interest rates remained "acute."
Any talk of rising interest rates dampens buyer enthusiasm across the Sydney property market.
And when rates do actually rise, the doubts set in further as buyers pause putting their hand too deep into their pockets. And often not buying at all.
It was no surprise that the tail end of 2016's auctions has seen a seasonal turn in the pitch as the last minute boost in numbers hits the market.
Clearance rates that were in the 80s, now into the mid-70 as many buyers turned off - perhaps to come back next year.
The recent auction market fatique also had much to do with interest rate headlines.
Ever since the Trump triumph in the United State in early November, its been subject to much speculation.
And the past fortnight has seen the big banks make early adjustments, to fixed rates more so than the more popular variable home loans. 
The Commonwealth Bank, the country’s biggest lender lifted the rate of its popular 3-year fixed rate by 0.20 percentage points to 4.24 percent.
It also lifted its longer-term 5-year fixed rate by 0.60 percentage points to 4.74 percent.
CBA was following Westpac with a RateCity.com.au analysis showing a further 20 lenders had lifted rates 268 fixed products since November 1.  
Peter Arnold, data insights director at RateCity.com.au said fixed rates are based on market expectations of future rates and "are the best indicator that we’ve got that a variable rate hike on the way.".
“Previously, banks were betting on lower rates in the future but we’re seeing those expectations change by the day."
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All the recent talk and then movements will dictate the direction of house price growth in 2017, having already started to dampened the market.
There are two substantive price forecasts out for 2017. 
Housing price growth of between 5 and 6 percent is expected for 2017 for detached houses is tipped by Paul Bloxham, the HSBC chief economist.
He expects Sydney apartment prices to track at a slower pace than detached houses at between 0 and 4 percent.
Bloxham noted what he called a substantial 66 percent ramp-up in housing prices in Sydney since mid-2012.
He added some of the price growth was at a "worrisome pace" of Sydney price growth, particularly in 2014 and 2015.
But following a tightening in prudential settings starting in late 2014, housing price growth had slowd from double-digit growth last year to high single-digit rates this year.
The other forecast came from SQM's Louis Christopher who has more often got it right than wrong.
He suggests the Reserve Bank of Australia will need the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to reign in home lending once again, or lift interest rates, or do both to avert a dangerous housing bubble.
Christopher suggested a scenario house prices in Sydney could rise between 11 and 16 percent given a combination of factors including loose monetary policy, strong population growth and booming local economies.
The early November forecast assumed a stable interest rate environment, a stable exchange rate and no further home lending restrictions by APRA.
A rate rise by the RBA of 25bps would curtail the rising Sydney market to beween 8 and 13 percent for the year.
The article first appeared in the Saturday Telegraph
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

What will happen to Sydney prices in 2017?

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Sydney prices will rise by around 10 per cent over 2020, valuation firm Herron Todd White believe.
They expect new listings to increase in the first half of 2020, which should see price growth begin to moderate, however they still expect double digit growth in the harbour capital.
A price growth of 10 per cent will see prices move above the previous peak in the second half of the year.
"We expect prices to be fairly strong across most regions and sub-sectors however we expect the lower quartile to begin to improve at a quicker pace while new units in oversupplied suburbs may remain weaker for the first half of the year", the valuation firm advised.
"A number of infrastructure developments have recently opened, or will open in 2020, which will continue to strengthen prices in the suburbs benefiting from these links."
Sydney dwelling values saw a 5.3 per cent increase of 2019, kickstarted in the middle of the year when the fast-paced recovery began. The final quarter alone saw prices rise 6.2 per cent, according to CoreLogic.
HTW believe the jump was mostly due to an increase in demand after the elections and interest rate cuts, while new listing levels remained fairly subdued in comparison to previous years.
Herron Todd White's monthly reporting of the property market saw no changes to their property clock, which puts capitals and sub-regions in to stages of the property cycle.
They said time will tell how the bush fires will play out both economically and politically for the remainder of the year, and what impacts it may have on the wider property market.
 
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wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

Sydney prices to increase around 10 per cent over 2020: Herron Todd White

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Sydney house prices will remain close to unchanged in the year to December 2019 after falling by about 8% in 2018, according to the latest Domain forecasts.
Domain predicts house prices will grow modestly in 2020.
They believe that house prices will fall by about 12% from their peak of almost $1.2 million in June 2017 to a low point of just above $1 million in mid-2019.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/Sydney%20Domain%201.JPG" alt="">
Source: Domain
Sydney unit prices are expected to be more resilient than house prices.
Domain Economist Trent Wiltshire said: "Unit prices are expected to fall by about 3% over the year to December 2018, but then prices are expected to grow modestly over the next two years at about 3-5%.
"Sydney unit prices are predicted to fall by 6% from their peak of $769,000 in June 2017 to their lowest point of about $720,000.
"At this low point, Sydney unit prices will be back at their late-2016 level.
"The NSW government’s stamp duty concessions are also likely to support unit price growth."
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/Sydney%20Domain%202.JPG" alt="">
Source: Domain 
However, one risk to Sydney unit prices is whether the large pipeline of new unit construction is absorbed.
Given projected strong population growth, Domain is of the opinion that this will not result in city-wide price falls, although some areas with a particularly large amount of new construction may see prices remain weak.
"Tighter lending conditions have weighed heavily on Sydney property prices, particularly for more expensive properties, but we think this is likely to have played out by mid-2019," Wiltshire said. 
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%201.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%201.JPG" alt="">
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%202.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%202.JPG" alt="">
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Sydney house prices will drop 12% from peak: Domain

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It has been increasingly obvious Sydney housing affordability was deteriorating based on the number of years’ worth of income required to purchase a home.
The significant gap also exists between incomes and the cost of renting.
The situation is particularly dire for single income households.
Professor David Adamson, from the University of South Wales, noted in the recent Housing Affordability Income Gap report, that the geography of housing unaffordability was increasingly hurting middle-income families.
Historically rents have been more closely pegged to incomes than property prices, but this link appears to be weakening.
Adamson suggests we have a broken housing system as between 2006 and 2016, Sydney median rents have increased by 76% while incomes have increased by 51%.
"The analysis tells us that this isn’t simply an experience of the few but that occupations often seen as middle-class and well paid are increasingly experiencing housing stress in order to live close to their place of work."
The report concluded typical households face the choice between living a considerable distance from the city, or living in a one-bedroom apartment.
If neither option was practical, these households are effectively forced to accept living in housing stress.
Avoiding stress on a two-bedroom apartment in Sydney’s inner suburbs required a $121,000 income.
The report notes the median rent in Sydney is $530 per week which would be enough to secure a three-bedroom house in Blacktown, but not enough for a two-bedroom unit in Burwood.
The report found two-bedroom units in Sydney’s middle ring are affordable, however affordability income gaps exist in the Canada Bay, Hunters Hill, Ku-ring-gai and Willoughby LGAs. 
Sydney’s outer ring is affordable for renting, although income gaps exist for detached dwellings in Hornsby, Northern Beaches, Sutherland, and The Hills Shire.
Since June 2000, regions in Sydney’s west such as Blacktown and Fairfield have experienced rent increases of 125% and 145% respectively, compared to 87% in Mosman, and 94% in Woollahra.
The effect is even more pronounced in satellite cities on the outskirts of Sydney such as Newcastle, where rents are up 150%, and Wollongong with rents up by 168%. 
With relatively lower incomes, renters of detached dwellings in the outlying locations and regional NSW face housing stress too.
The report acknowledges the 30-year boom in house prices has made a lot of people extremely wealthy, "at least on paper".
It then suggests the wealth effect was "perhaps why so many have been willing to turn a blind eye to the economic and social fallout for so long".
It slammed policy makers for "aiding this wilful blindness by using cheap credit and immigration to create the illusion of an economy running on all cylinders".
The AHIG report noted dwelling prices have experienced modest declines over the year with Sydney leading the way, down 4.5%.
"It would be a mistake however for policy makers to take this as a sign that no action is required," the report concluded, noting for Australian housing to meet any accepted definition of affordability, prices would have to fall by 60% from the 2017 peak.
It conceded any major fall in prices could spark a deep and painful recession.
However a recession "sparked by a housing bust should be viewed as an opportunity to address the systemic problems that enabled the emergence of the crisis in the first place,' it ill-advisedly countenances.
This article first appeared in The Daily Telegraph. 
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Sydney's rental affordability is hurting middle-income families 

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Both houses and apartments in Sydney have begun their decline, according to the latest Herron Todd White property clock.
The valuation firm put Melbourne apartments at their peak, with Melbourne houses approaching their peak.
There are two capital cities with property markets at the bottom, Adelaide units and Darwin houses.
Brisbane, Canberra and Perth units are in decline. Perth houses are approaching the bottom of the market 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/6/Clock_Houses.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/6/Clock_Houses.jpg" alt="">
Sydney houses were at their peak last month and in September when HTT noted the "frenzied" house buying was fading.
Sydney houses and units were also deemed to be in decline in August. Sydney units stayed in decline in September and October.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/6/Clock_Units.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/6/Clock_Units.jpg" alt="">
 
 
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Sydney houses and apartments in price decline: HTW property clock

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Property, just like any other investment class, follows cycles where prices can rise, fall or plateau.
Sydney got a rare taste of a dip in September, according to CoreLogic, when it joined Darwin with values falling.
It was no great surprise, and not by much though.
After getting 80 percent percent higher over an extended five year upswing, Sydney dwelling values slipped 0.1 percent lower over the month to a $909,000 median, it’s first month-on-month decline in 17 months.
Ofcourse the headline figure is accompanied by increasing resale activity at lower prices.
The most recent CoreLogic pain gain report noted 2.6 percent of Sydney houses and 1.8 percent of units had been resold recently at a price lower than their purchase price.
This is a very low volume of resales making a loss as the national figure sits for houses at 8.1 percent and 13.3 percent for units.
Many Sydney council areas recorded no loss over the March quarter including Waverley, Ashfield, Burwood, Hunters Hill and Kogarah.
The council areas with the highest proportion of resales at a loss were Wollondilly (5.9%), Hurstville (5.7%) and Hawkesbury (4.8%).
The ups and downs in pricing can be typically explained through the classic economic theory of supply and demand and exuberance.
The rising volume of new stock on the Sydney market - both auction and private treaty - is likely to place further pressure on the market during spring, as volumes are sitting some 15 per cent higher than last October.
The Sydney property market is more likely to experience an extended plateau rather than any doomsday crash scenario due to the relatively low unemployment rate and heightened population growth.
CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless says that prices in Sydney will probably trend lower into 2018, although continued strong demand for housing, along with the likelihood that interest rates will remain low, will help to support a floor under housing prices.
I'd suggest much depends on Sydney investors who appear to have momentarily called time out in part because they are now paying higher interest rates after restrictive lending practices by banks.
The investors' response is an understandable reaction to policy initiatives by APRA, the financial regulator, for market cooling.
Residential investor activity has declined sharply in NSW as the latest data from the ABS reported that approved residential investor loans for buyers totalled $5.7 billion over July which was down 22 percent on June.
Sales data indicates that NSW investors were slightly more likely to incur a loss on the resale of their property than owner occupiers. Over the March quarter, 1.9 percent of investors resold their home at a loss compared to 1.8 percent of owner occupiers. 
Buying when everyone wants to sell increases the chance of quickly profiting from property, not that we've seen much flipping intent among buyers as the typical hold period has been six years. 
The time held is important, especially to sit out selling during downturns.
Sensing and tracking the price cycles can pay dividends for savvy home buyers and investors, as there are times when property purchasing can result in a wonderful early gain.
This article was first published in the Saturday Daily Telegraph.
 
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