ANZ believes the Reserve Bank is in no rush to move again.

Following the release of the May Monetary Policy Board Minutes, ANZ has taken the view that the RBA is now firmly in a holding pattern, with the cumulative impact of previous rate hikes giving the Board scope to assess how the economy evolves from here.

That positioning, in ANZ’s view, makes a June rate hike unlikely.

The bank continues to expect the cash rate to remain unchanged at 4.35 per cent for an extended period, with the RBA adopting what is effectively a wait-and-see approach.

The Minutes point to a Board that sees financial conditions as already restrictive, but without a clear read on just how restrictive they are. That uncertainty has shifted the focus away from immediate policy action and toward monitoring both domestic conditions and global developments, particularly the conflict in the Middle East.

As ANZ interprets it, the Board is deliberately avoiding strong forward guidance.

Instead, it is allowing itself flexibility, acknowledging that monetary policy has limited ability to influence the near-term trajectory of inflation, while also recognising that economic growth is likely to remain below potential for some time.

Despite that pause in momentum, ANZ notes that the Board still carries a tightening bias.

The Minutes reveal that, in weighing up its decision, the Board seriously considered another 25 basis point increase. The key debate centred on the trade-off between inflation and activity, particularly in the context of global uncertainty.

Ultimately, most members leaned toward the inflation side of that equation.

Underlying inflation is still expected to remain above target for an extended period, regardless of how external risks evolve. That has led to a view within the Board that the risks to its inflation objective have increased, and that the current cash rate may not be sufficiently restrictive to fully contain those pressures.

That’s important.

While the decision, for now, is to hold, the underlying tone of the Minutes suggests the door to further tightening has not been closed.

ANZ also points to commentary from Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter, who highlighted the risk that inflation could pass through the economy more quickly and broadly than in previous cycles. Both Hunter and a majority of the Board expressed concern that inflation expectations could become less anchored after such a prolonged period above target.

That combination, persistent inflation and the risk of expectations shifting, is what continues to underpin the RBA’s cautious stance.

However, where ANZ diverges from the RBA is on the outlook for activity.

The Board appears relatively comfortable with current spending patterns, effectively downplaying recent declines in business and consumer sentiment. It notes that sentiment has historically been only weakly correlated with actual spending, and that feedback from its liaison program has not yet pointed to a meaningful slowdown in consumption.

ANZ is less convinced.

The bank believes the link between household disposable income, sentiment and spending is more direct than the RBA is currently acknowledging. With inflation continuing to erode real incomes, ANZ expects household spending to soften more materially than the central bank is forecasting.

That divergence matters because it shifts the balance of risk.

If activity weakens more than expected, the trade-off between inflation and growth changes. In ANZ’s view, that would reduce the need for further tightening and reinforce the case for the RBA to remain on hold.

It also suggests that the current policy setting may already be doing more work than the Board fully appreciates.

The broader takeaway from ANZ’s interpretation is that the RBA is walking a narrow path.

On one side sits the risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected. On the other is the growing pressure on households and the potential for a sharper slowdown in activity.

For now, the Board is choosing to wait.

But it is a pause that still carries an underlying tightening bias, rather than a clear pivot toward easing.

In practical terms, that leaves the cash rate anchored at 4.35 per cent for the foreseeable future, with the next move still uncertain.

For borrowers, it reinforces the reality that relief is not imminent.

And for the broader economy, it highlights the delicate balance the RBA is trying to strike, between bringing inflation back to target and avoiding an unnecessarily sharp slowdown in growth.

According to ANZ, it is a balance that is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain.

Joel Robinson

RBA to hold rates for "prolonged period" rather than hikes: ANZ

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/venturecrowd-property-projects">VentureCrowd</a> is down to the final Canopy Villa release at Cumulus Grand Villas in Carrara, as construction continues on the 59-residence gated community positioned above 100 hectares of natural savanna on the Gold Coast.

The remaining Canopy Villa forms part of one of four collections within the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>-designed community and has attracted interest from buyers seeking larger-format homes that combine privacy, security and low-maintenance living. Positioned within a private cul-de-sac and facing a protected black she oak forest, the four-bedroom villa includes a large private outdoor area suited to pet owners and families wanting more flexible space.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/cumulus-grand-villas-carrara-17-baltimore-court-carrara-qld-4211">Cumulus Grand Villas</a>, located at 17 Baltimore Court, comprises a mix of three and four-bedroom villas across the Skyline, Canopy, Savanna and Broadview collections. Prices currently range from $1.455 million to $1.895 million, with the final Canopy Villa priced from $1.825 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360477]

The Canopy Collection villas offer four bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and approximately 245 sqm of internal space, alongside double garages and landscaped private areas. Expansive glazing, open-plan living spaces and private balconies have been designed to maximise natural light and outlooks toward the surrounding savanna landscape.

Construction is now underway across the fully funded development, which VentureCrowd says has become an increasingly important consideration for buyers assessing off-the-plan opportunities on the Gold Coast. The project is being delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/devcon">Devcon Property Group</a>, which has operated in South East Queensland since 1993 and delivered more than 1,000 homes across the region.

VentureCrowd Director of Property David Whitting previously said the project responds to changing buyer priorities in the prestige Gold Coast market.

“Flexible floorplans have proven particularly relevant for purchasers aged between 40 and 65, including next home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Whitting said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360505]

The buyer profile at Cumulus has reflected that shift toward owner-occupier-driven demand. Stuart Towns and Tracey Loynes recently purchased a Canopy Villa, drawn to both the lifestyle offering and the flexibility the home provided for their next stage of living together.

The couple, who met three years ago, sold their Robina home earlier this year after identifying what they saw as strong long-term investment potential at Cumulus while remaining within the same Gold Coast market. The villa’s private backyard was a major drawcard for their dog Luna, while proximity to golf courses including Emerald Lakes also aligned with their lifestyle interests.

Beyond the residences themselves, the community has been planned around shared lifestyle and recreation amenities. The Infinity Terrace will include a 20-metre heated pool, barbecue facilities, alfresco dining spaces and elevated retreat areas overlooking the surrounding landscape. Walking trails, a private nature reserve, orchard and herb garden are also integrated into the masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360473]

BDA Architecture Director Darren Greenaway said the design approach was heavily influenced by the site’s outlook and secluded setting.

The practice sought to create what Greenaway described as a “little piece of paradise,” drawing inspiration from the elevated views, surrounding greenery and quiet location.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/carrara-qld-4211">Carrara</a> continues to attract buyers seeking larger homes within proximity to the coast but without direct beachfront pricing. Cumulus sits within easy reach of Broadbeach, Pacific Fair, Robina Town Centre and the M1, providing connections north to Brisbane and south toward the Gold Coast Airport and northern New South Wales.

The first stage of Cumulus Grand Villas is targeting completion in 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135663]

VentureCrowd nears sell-out of Canopy Collection at Cumulus Grand Villas in Carrara

Waverley Council has made a call that many councils have been reluctant to make publicly. Growth is coming, regardless of who controls it.

The release of the Bondi Junction Vision and Master Plan is less about whether the Eastern Suburbs’ primary centre will change, and more about how that change is shaped, funded, and ultimately experienced on the ground. Waverley Council has released a 100-page plan which is effectively the first comprehensive blueprint for Bondi Junction in over two decades, and in doing so, signals a clear shift in how councils are positioning themselves in the current planning environment.

For the past 18 months, the conversation across New South Wales has been dominated by the State Government’s Low and Mid-Rise Housing reforms and the emergence of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway. Both have created faster, more centralised avenues for development approvals, particularly in well-located, infrastructure-rich areas like Bondi Junction.

Waverley Council’s response has been to move early, and decisively.

Rather than react to individual proposals as they come through the HDA or broader State-led reforms, Council has sought to establish a clear, place-based framework that sets the terms for how Bondi Junction evolves. The underlying position is relatively straightforward: if densification is inevitable, it should be tied to infrastructure, public domain improvements, and a cohesive vision for the centre, not delivered piecemeal through ad hoc applications.

<img alt="bondi junction" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7f1f729c-ed99-4c6c-bf87-ffbce6991941" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-19%20at%209.58.16%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=ULX4OlXKjeJ5BvNCNGL86evgXCjCfMih" />

At its core, the document is attempting to reposition Bondi Junction from what it largely functions as today, a transport interchange anchored by a major retail centre, into something far more layered. The ambition is to transform it into what the plan describes as the “civic and cultural heart of Sydney’s East,” a place that is active beyond commuting hours and capable of supporting a broader mix of uses, experiences and communities.

That repositioning is built around four key ambitions.

The first is to create a true destination. Bondi Junction already attracts significant foot traffic, with more than 86,000 daily transport users and millions of annual retail visits, but much of that activity is transient. People pass through, rather than stay.

The Master Plan seeks to change that dynamic. It leans heavily into the idea of an “18-hour economy,” extending activity well beyond traditional retail hours through dining, cultural programming, events, and a more active night-time offering. This is not just about adding more hospitality venues, but about fundamentally shifting how the centre operates, from a daytime shopping destination to a place that functions across the full span of the day and into the evening.

Oxford Street Mall sits at the centre of that shift.

Long seen as underperforming relative to its potential, the Mall is identified as one of the key catalyst projects in the plan. It is to be reimagined as a day-to-night spine, combining retail, dining, wellness and cultural uses in a way that creates a continuous flow of activity. Outdoor dining, rooftop venues, laneway activation and a curated events program are all part of the strategy, alongside significant public domain upgrades that aim to improve comfort, safety and usability.

&nbsp;

The second ambition is to transform Bondi Junction into a world-class interchange.

Despite being one of the most heavily used transport nodes in Sydney, the current experience is fragmented. Connections between the station, Westfield, Oxford Street Mall and surrounding streets are often unclear, and major roads create physical barriers that disrupt pedestrian movement.

The Master Plan proposes a more seamless, people-focused network. That includes clearer pedestrian links, improved wayfinding, better integration between transport modes, and a rethinking of how arrival into the centre is experienced. The aim is to shift the perception of Bondi Junction from a place people move through, to a place they arrive in.

The third ambition focuses on greening and open space.

One of the more consistent pieces of community feedback throughout the Vision phase was the need for more greenery, better public spaces, and a more comfortable urban environment. Despite being surrounded by major parks, Bondi Junction itself has relatively limited accessible open space, with much of the public realm dominated by hard surfaces and traffic infrastructure.

The plan responds with a network of new and upgraded public spaces, increased tree canopy, and what it terms the “Parkline,” a green link connecting Waverley Park through to Centennial Park. This is not just about aesthetics. It is about addressing heat, improving liveability, and ensuring that increased density is matched by access to high-quality outdoor space.

The fourth ambition is perhaps the most important from a development perspective: growth that gives back.

Bondi Junction is already the primary location for new housing supply in the Waverley LGA, and that is expected to continue. The area carries a target of 2,400 new dwellings by 2029, with further growth projected beyond that as demand for well-located housing continues to rise. The Master Plan does not seek to limit that growth. Instead, it attempts to shape it.

New housing is to be concentrated around transport, with stepped building heights designed to protect the character of surrounding neighbourhoods. At the same time, the plan introduces a more explicit link between development uplift and public benefit. This is where value capture becomes central.

The document outlines a framework where increased development potential is tied to contributions that fund public domain improvements, community infrastructure, open space, and affordable housing. It is an approach that recognises that much of the transformation of Bondi Junction will be delivered by the private sector, but seeks to ensure that the benefits of that growth are shared more broadly. The Civic Precinct is a key part of that equation.

Leveraging Council-owned land, the plan proposes a consolidated civic and cultural hub centred around Ebley Street. This would include new community facilities, cultural spaces, and potentially a new Council Chambers, creating a focal point for civic life that currently does not exist in Bondi Junction at scale.

It is one of several catalyst projects identified in the Master Plan, alongside the Oxford Street Mall transformation. These projects are intended to anchor change, acting as early interventions that unlock broader investment across the precinct.

Importantly, the Master Plan is not just a design document. It includes a delivery framework that sets out how these ambitions are intended to be realised.

Council is explicit in acknowledging that it cannot deliver the transformation alone. Implementation will require coordination between State agencies, private developers, landowners and the community, with a mix of planning agreements, infrastructure contributions and direct delivery mechanisms used to fund and stage improvements over time.

The plan outlines a mix of short-term, medium-term and long-term actions, from immediate public domain upgrades and planning controls, through to larger-scale projects that will unfold over the next decade or more. In practical terms, the next 12 to 24 months will be the most important.

This is when the Master Plan will move through exhibition, refinement and eventual adoption. It is also the period in which Council will seek to embed the framework into its planning controls, giving it weight in the assessment of future development applications.

Council officers have indicated that once the Master Plan is in place, it could be used as a benchmark when assessing Housing Delivery Authority proposals, and potentially reduce the need for further HDA declarations within Bondi Junction. In effect, it is an attempt to bring planning control back to the local level, while still aligning with State housing targets.

That tension between State-led reform and local planning control is not unique to Waverley. It is playing out across Sydney.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

If delivered as intended, Bondi Junction will become denser, more active, and more complex. It will support more residents, more workers, and a wider range of uses, extending beyond its current retail core into a more layered urban environment.

“The civic and cultural heart of Sydney’s East”: Bondi Junction masterplan revealed

Toorak's dress circle St Georges Road, home to some of the city's priciest homes, is set for a rare new apartment development.

Blood Diamond Group, an entity tied to Tina Brandi, wife of David Brandi who has been a prolific bidder on The Block over the years, has filed plans for an ultra-exclusive development across an amalgamated 3,662 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/104-106-st-georges-road-toorak-vic-3142">104 and 106 St Georges Road</a>.

The proposal would replace two existing homes on the riverfront site with a five-level apartment building cascading down the steeply sloping land toward the Yarra River. Designed by Charles Wright Architects, the development has been carefully shaped around the site’s topography and river environs, with the upper levels stepping back to reduce visual bulk from both St Georges Road and the Yarra corridor.

Planning documents describe the proposal as “a site layout and building typology that is consistent with the emerging character of the area and which provides exceptional amenity for future residents without compromising that of neighbouring properties.”&nbsp;

<img alt="First look: Blood Diamond Group unveils riverfront apartment plans for Toorak Pavilion" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ea19a17e-7528-4fa8-b727-05f2f7c025e5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Toorak%20pavilion%20a_0.png?VersionId=rZ2IjdoUL_UrRl1sZ4wZHnQXbYUaEmUQ" />

The scheme comprises 12 apartments, including 10 three-bedroom residences, one one-bedroom apartment, and a substantial split-level five-bedroom penthouse. A 624 sqm communal rooftop terrace will crown the building, while three undercroft levels embedded into the hillside will accommodate apartments and basement parking.

The design leverages the site’s dramatic northern outlook across the Yarra River, with living areas and balconies oriented toward the water. A central atrium running the full height of the building is intended to draw natural light deep into the residences and improve internal amenity.

Landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo Design &amp; Landscape</a> will play a major role in softening the built form, particularly along the river edge where significant setbacks have been introduced. The proposal includes a minimum 30-metre setback from the Yarra River boundary, preserving a substantial landscaped buffer between the development and the waterway.

While a mature English Oak near the front of the site is proposed for removal, the plans retain a large English Elm closer to the riverfront, alongside other established vegetation in the lower section of the property.

<img alt="First look: Blood Diamond Group unveils riverfront apartment plans for Toorak Pavilion" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ed3bf19b-5bc7-482f-bde7-41f709a13c3a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Toorak%20pavilion%20b.png?VersionId=SG_kBGu4rOaSPY8FtVcmPJfSCrstuOfg" />

Architecturally, the building adopts strong horizontal forms with expansive glazing and curved balcony edges facing the river. Planning documents note the upper levels “adopt a receding form” to ensure the building responds appropriately to the Yarra River environs overlay controls.&nbsp;

The surrounding streetscape is characterised by large contemporary homes embedded into the hillside, many presenting as modest one or two-storey forms to the street before expanding toward the river frontage below. The planning report notes this established pattern heavily influenced the massing strategy for Toorak Pavilion.&nbsp;

Until the recent sale of the landmark Clendon Road mansion Coonac for around $130 million, St Georges Road held the state's most expensive home, the $80,000,088 derelict "Ghost House" mansion that was bought by crypto king Ed Craven.&nbsp;

Blair House, also on St Georges Road, sold for $74.5 million in 2022.

First look: Toorak Pavilions slated for dress circle St Georges Road

Six months after a development site on Kangaroo Point’s Shafston Avenue sold for $6.55 million, plans have been lodged for a 23-storey apartment tower.

A company named JMT Mega Capital, understood to be interstate investors when the 1,222 sqm double block traded late last year through Patona Property, is proposing an 84-apartment development in place of the existing low-rise buildings.

The slender tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/212-220-shafston-avenue-east-brisbane-qld-4169">212–220 Shafston Avenue</a>, overlooking the Brisbane River, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/aplus-design-group">Aplus Design Group</a>. It will comprise a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments above six basement levels, topped by rooftop resident amenities.

<img alt="First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7e17ba9e-553e-42ef-92b6-22081671521a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/podium_3.png?VersionId=hlVUf99vrOjUs.vhQs0qV0DhOncUy9T8" />

The development has been designed as a vertically articulated tower with recessed balconies, curved façades and planted edges intended to soften its scale within the evolving Shafston Avenue skyline. In the submitted Urban Design Report, Aplus Design Group said the tower had been “shaped with a slender vertical expression, articulated façades, recessed balcony zones, integrated planting and a clearly defined podium relationship, helping to reduce perceived bulk and create a more elegant contribution to the Shafston Avenue streetscape and broader Kangaroo Point skyline.”

The scheme comprises 84 apartments, including 25 one-bedroom units, 34 two-bedroom apartments and 25 three-bedroom residences. A total of 104 car spaces are proposed across six basement levels, including resident, visitor and accessible parking.

Residents will have access to rooftop communal open space and shared amenities, while the development also incorporates deep planting zones and subtropical landscaping throughout the podium and tower levels. The project includes 35 per cent communal space coverage across the site and a 17.5 per cent deep soil zone allocation to support urban greening outcomes.

The application exceeds the mapped building height under the Kangaroo Point Peninsula Neighbourhood Plan and is being assessed under Brisbane City Council’s impact assessment pathway. The design team argues the additional height is supported by the site’s strategic inner-city location, existing high-density zoning, and proximity to transport and employment hubs.

“The design has been developed to make better use of a well-serviced urban site within an established high-density residential setting, while improving the street presentation and overall quality of the public realm interface,” the report states.

<img alt="First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1ab44b1e-ff45-4bf3-8da8-8aa0cd79db33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_10.png?VersionId=tSxeGekZOqj1e9g3PEn_yFoC3taKDp3U" />

The proposal adds to a growing pipeline of apartment developments reshaping Kangaroo Point ahead of the 2032 Brisbane Olympic Games, with demand continuing to strengthen for new housing supply in well-connected inner-city precincts.

Mosaic has nearly sold out its under-construction <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-bedford-by-mosaic-16-30-prospect-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Bedford by Mosaic</a>&nbsp;and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-carter-by-mosaic-77-linton-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Carter</a>,&nbsp;while Pikos recently completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/skye-residences-by-pikos-kangaroo-point-8-river-terrace-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Skye Residences</a> nearby. Pikos is also delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gaia-kangaroo-point-108-lambert-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Gaia</a>, over 230 three- and four-bedroom apartments on Lambert Street.

First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point apartment tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct

Sydney Prices

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The Sydney housing market is starting to slow following more than five years of strong increases in dwelling values.
As the Sydney market slows there could be some upside for other housing markets where capital gains have been more sustainable and rental yields are higher.
Australia’s third largest city, Brisbane, has recently garnered more attention as a candidate for improved housing market conditions.
In this week’s blog we look at the historic relationship between housing market growth in Sydney and Brisbane in order to determine whether the slowdown in Sydney could translate into an acceleration in Brisbane.
 
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage1.png" alt="2017-10-09--annualchangeindwellingvalues" width="570" height="198">
The 30 year annual change chart above tends to indicate that after a surge in Sydney dwelling values Brisbane has followed suit thereafter.  
Following Sydney dwelling value growth peaking at 61.7% p.a. in August 1988, Brisbane dwelling value growth peaked at an annual rate of 35.3% in February 1989.  
Annual growth in Sydney dwelling values also peaked in January 2002 at 20.8% with Brisbane’s rate of growth not peaking until December 2003 at 30.7%.  
Keep in mind that outside of these two clear examples, a rise in Sydney value growth has not necessarily been met with a rise in Brisbane (or vice versa).
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage2.png" alt="2017-10-09--sydneydwellingvaluepremiumrelativetobrisbane" width="570" height="198">
  What the growth of Sydney values in 1988 and 2001 did have in common is that they resulted in a significant gap opening between values in Sydney and Brisbane.  
At its peak in August 1988, Sydney dwelling values were typically 104% more than Brisbane dwellings.  
At its height in September 2001, Sydney dwelling values were 107% higher than Brisbane dwelling prices.  
Recently the chart shows that the gap between values in Sydney and Brisbane has increased and at September 2017 the differential was 86%.  
The long-term average premium for Sydney dwellings over Brisbane is 55% indicating that the gap remains above the long-term average.  Interestingly, even taking a shorter time-frame the average gap has been 56% over the past 20 years and a lower 41% over the past decade.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage3.png" alt="2017-10-09--quarterlyinterstatemigrationfromnswtoqld" width="570" height="198">
  Queensland has historically been a popular migration destination for people choosing to leave New South Wales.  
The above chart highlights that following the surge in value growth and the widening of dwelling prices between Sydney and Brisbane, migration from New South Wales to Queensland has typically increased.  
Over the long-term, the average quarterly number of persons migrating from New South Wales to Queensland has been recorded at 12,376 persons.  
Migration from New South Wales to Queensland peaked over the March 1989 quarter at 18,259 persons and then averaged 14,461 persons per quarter from March 1989 to December 1991.  
Migration from New South Wales to Queensland peaked again in December 2002 at 18,129 persons and then averaged 15,392 persons per quarter from December 2002 to September 2004.
As migration from New South Wales to Queensland has recently picked-up, so far it has peaked at a much lower 13,487 persons over the December 2016 quarter which is only 9.0% above the long-term average.  
By comparison the 1989 peak saw migration to Queensland peak at 47.5% above the long-run average and the 2002 peak saw migration peak at 46.5% above the long-run average.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage4.png" alt="2017-10-09--annualchangeinemployment" width="570" height="198">
  Unless those people migrating from New South Wales to Queensland are retirees, employment opportunities must be a key consideration.  
Post the 1987 boom in Sydney, New South Wales employment growth was slowing while it accelerated in Queensland.  
Similarly in the early 2000’s employment growth had been greater in New South Wales than in Queensland however, by June 2001 Queensland’s employment was growing at a faster annual rate than New South Wales’ with Queensland employment growth consistently stronger than New South Wales all the way until January 2008.  
Over this period, dwelling value growth in Brisbane had consistently been stronger than growth in Sydney.  
Looking more recently, New South Wales has consistently recorded stronger annual employment growth than Queensland between September 2014 and March 2017.  Since April 2017, annual employment growth in Queensland has been greater than in New South Wales.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/20174-10-09-blogimage5.png" alt="2017-10-09--unemploymentratetrend" width="570" height="198">
  Although employment growth is important, the unemployment rate is also a consideration.  
Although job creation picked up in Queensland after 1987, Queensland’s unemployment rate was consistently higher than New South Wales’ until October 1991 when it was fairly similar to that of New South Wales.  
By August 1992 Queensland’s unemployment rate fell below New South Wales’ and remained lower until December 1994.  
The New South Wales unemployment rate was then consistently lower than Queensland’s until July 2004 with Queensland’s unemployment rate remaining lower than News South Wales’ from July 2004 until late 2009 (thankyou mining boom!).  
From February 2010 onwards, Queensland is yet to chalk up one month in which its unemployment rate is lower than New South Wales’.  Interestingly though, the gap between the New South Wales and Queensland unemployment rate is currently lower (1.1 basis points) than it was as the Sydney housing market was peaking in August 1988 (1.5 basis points) and January 2002 (1.9 basis points).
The trends presented here would generally suggest that Brisbane could be well positioned for a pick-up in value growth as the Sydney housing market slows.  
Keep in mind though that there have been instances in the past where value growth has surged in Sydney and it hasn’t been followed by a surge in Brisbane, so a lift in Brisbane growth is no certainty.  
A significant gap in the cost of housing between the two cities was evident in both 1989 and 2002 and it also evident currently.  As value growth rose in Brisbane, interstate migration from New South Wales hit levels significantly above the long-term average and although interstate migration is increasing it is yet to hit anything close to those previous highs.  Employment growth is accelerating in Queensland which may encourage an increasing number of people from New South Wales to Queensland and the differential in unemployment rate is smaller than it was in 1989 and 2002.
One other consideration is whether the same magnitude of people leaving New South Wales for Queensland will actually settle in Brisbane.  
Both the Gold and Sunshine Coasts are much bigger cities in their own right than they were in 1989 and 2002 plus connectivity with Brisbane is much better than it was previously, so perhaps these migrants will be more inclined to settle on one of the Coasts rather than Brisbane.  
Over the 12 months to September 2017, Brisbane dwelling values have increased by 2.9% while values on the Gold Coast are 5.4% higher over the year and Sunshine Coast values are 6.6%. 
In my opinion, before we can call a coming surge in Brisbane dwelling values we are going to need to see both more evidence that migrants are settling in Brisbane rather than the Gold and Sunshine Coasts.  Migration from New South Wales to Queensland is going to have to lift by a lot more than it has to-date.  Finally, Queensland will also need to see a sustained improvement in employment growth to lure more people across the border.
 
Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Sydney housing market starting to slow: will Brisbane benefit?

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Stand by for an avalanche of hysterical nonsense from mainstream media as the Sydney property market continues its gradual wind-down after four strong years of price growth. 
At Hotspotting we’ve been charting a steady decrease in sales activity for at least the past 18 months across the Sydney metro area. This inevitably has led to the slow-down in the price growth rates we are now seeing, alongside a reduction in auction clearance rates. 
We’re likely to see a similar scenario to the one that evolved in 2004, following the end of the previous boom, which stretched from 2001 to 2003. Back then there were plenty of predictions of price collapse from attention-seekers, but that did not occur. We simply saw an end to the previous price growth and values flat-lined for a few years. 
The evidence to date, both statistical and anecdotal, suggests we’ll see similar things this time. The conditions for significant price decline – economic recession, high unemployment, major oversupply and reckless lending – don’t exist. 
The key elements that drove the up-cycle – the strength of the NSW economy, the very high levels of infrastructure spending and the steady population growth – are still as prominent as ever. And of course we still have very low interest rates, though their influence is much less than the chattering economists would have us believe. 
But we’ve already seen some doomsayer headlines. 
One high-profile commentator, Robert Gottliebsen, claims that values of established apartments have fallen as much as 25 percent in some locations, but I can’t find any evidence of this and neither can anyone else I’ve spoken to. 
The consensus from property professionals at the coal-face is that the frenzy has dissipated and market behaviour has moderated, but there is, as yet, no sign of prices dropping. The evidence is that they have stopped rising, generally speaking. 
Mainstream media, always a great source of misinformation about property markets, over-reacted to the recent CoreLogic figures that suggested a small decrease in Sydney prices in October. That prompted headlines declaring the end of boom and, in some cases, a likely collapse in values. 
It also inspired some of the more shallow commentators, like those at UBS, to rush to be the first to declare the end of “the Australian property boom” – that fictitious entity that exists only in the minds of economists who don’t understand the workings of our many different real estate markets. 
Media should know better than to over-react to month-to-month figures, which are notoriously erratic and ultimately irrelevant. 
I remember similar mis-interpretations late last year when the month-to-month figures showed a 1.3% drop in Melbourne house values in November 2016. Media shouted that the Melbourne boom was over and values were falling. But the next set of monthly figures showed a 3.3% rise in December, at which point media screamed that the boom was back on. And, with further rises in subsequent months, those strident headlines about the collapse of the Melbourne market were quickly forgotten. 
I’ve spoken to a number of respected buyers agents and trustworthy selling agents and no one has seen any sign of the nose-diving values perceived by Gottliebsen in the secondhand apartment market. 
The principal of Snowden Parkes Real Estate, Tony Abboud, is as informed as anyone about Sydney apartment markets and he says the reality is the opposite to what Gottliebsen has claimed. 
The Australian columnist reckons new apartments are fine but secondhand ones are losing value rapidly. Abboud sees it quite differently. He says more and more buyers are opting for the established product, because it’s more affordable than the new stuff – and that’s underpinning values. 
“The existing apartments have been holding up well, because they have lower prices per square metre than the off-the-plan product,” Abboud says. “So it’s made them more attractive. Buyers are also more likely to buy something that’s already built because it offers certainty. 
“We are getting 20 or 30 calls a day from buyers. They are taking longer to make decisions, because the urgency has gone from the market, but there’s an intent to purchase.” 
Buyers agent Kate Hill from Adviseable has seen no evidence of price decline in the Sydney market. 
“The market has eased off but prices are holding at the moment,” she says. “There’s no evidence of a big drop in apartment values. There’s still relatively consistent demand. Markets have come off the boil and a lot more properties are being passed in at auction, but there’s no evidence I’ve seen of price decline.” 
Buyers agent Rich Harvey of propertybuyer says that if apartments were selling at a 25 percent discount he would be buying the first that comes on the market, but he has seen no sign of that occurring. 
He’s seeing mixed results in the auction market as far as pricing goes: some selling above reserve, some hitting the reserve price and some selling a little under reserve. 
“There’s certainly no sign of panic,” Harvey says. “Some vendors are being a bit more realistic and we’re seeing a degree of moderation in the market. It’s not quite a buyers’ market yet, but we are seeing opportunities.” 
He says he’s getting more calls from selling agents asking if they have buyers – rather than just opening the door and watching the buyers rush in. 
So, all signs point to a market which, unsurprisingly, is running out of puff after sprinting for four years. But we can expect Sydney to keep jogging steadily. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au 
twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Avalanche of hysterical nonsense as Sydney property market continues gradual wind-down

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Despite periodic warnings from the Reserve Bank about crazy prices, the Sydney market place has just had a year that no-one foresaw in terms of continued strong price growth.
But Brian White, chairman of real estate agency Ray White, says that homeowners’ and buyers’ sensitivity to interest rates remained "acute."
Any talk of rising interest rates dampens buyer enthusiasm across the Sydney property market.
And when rates do actually rise, the doubts set in further as buyers pause putting their hand too deep into their pockets. And often not buying at all.
It was no surprise that the tail end of 2016's auctions has seen a seasonal turn in the pitch as the last minute boost in numbers hits the market.
Clearance rates that were in the 80s, now into the mid-70 as many buyers turned off - perhaps to come back next year.
The recent auction market fatique also had much to do with interest rate headlines.
Ever since the Trump triumph in the United State in early November, its been subject to much speculation.
And the past fortnight has seen the big banks make early adjustments, to fixed rates more so than the more popular variable home loans. 
The Commonwealth Bank, the country’s biggest lender lifted the rate of its popular 3-year fixed rate by 0.20 percentage points to 4.24 percent.
It also lifted its longer-term 5-year fixed rate by 0.60 percentage points to 4.74 percent.
CBA was following Westpac with a RateCity.com.au analysis showing a further 20 lenders had lifted rates 268 fixed products since November 1.  
Peter Arnold, data insights director at RateCity.com.au said fixed rates are based on market expectations of future rates and "are the best indicator that we’ve got that a variable rate hike on the way.".
“Previously, banks were betting on lower rates in the future but we’re seeing those expectations change by the day."
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All the recent talk and then movements will dictate the direction of house price growth in 2017, having already started to dampened the market.
There are two substantive price forecasts out for 2017. 
Housing price growth of between 5 and 6 percent is expected for 2017 for detached houses is tipped by Paul Bloxham, the HSBC chief economist.
He expects Sydney apartment prices to track at a slower pace than detached houses at between 0 and 4 percent.
Bloxham noted what he called a substantial 66 percent ramp-up in housing prices in Sydney since mid-2012.
He added some of the price growth was at a "worrisome pace" of Sydney price growth, particularly in 2014 and 2015.
But following a tightening in prudential settings starting in late 2014, housing price growth had slowd from double-digit growth last year to high single-digit rates this year.
The other forecast came from SQM's Louis Christopher who has more often got it right than wrong.
He suggests the Reserve Bank of Australia will need the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to reign in home lending once again, or lift interest rates, or do both to avert a dangerous housing bubble.
Christopher suggested a scenario house prices in Sydney could rise between 11 and 16 percent given a combination of factors including loose monetary policy, strong population growth and booming local economies.
The early November forecast assumed a stable interest rate environment, a stable exchange rate and no further home lending restrictions by APRA.
A rate rise by the RBA of 25bps would curtail the rising Sydney market to beween 8 and 13 percent for the year.
The article first appeared in the Saturday Telegraph
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

What will happen to Sydney prices in 2017?

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Sydney prices will rise by around 10 per cent over 2020, valuation firm Herron Todd White believe.
They expect new listings to increase in the first half of 2020, which should see price growth begin to moderate, however they still expect double digit growth in the harbour capital.
A price growth of 10 per cent will see prices move above the previous peak in the second half of the year.
"We expect prices to be fairly strong across most regions and sub-sectors however we expect the lower quartile to begin to improve at a quicker pace while new units in oversupplied suburbs may remain weaker for the first half of the year", the valuation firm advised.
"A number of infrastructure developments have recently opened, or will open in 2020, which will continue to strengthen prices in the suburbs benefiting from these links."
Sydney dwelling values saw a 5.3 per cent increase of 2019, kickstarted in the middle of the year when the fast-paced recovery began. The final quarter alone saw prices rise 6.2 per cent, according to CoreLogic.
HTW believe the jump was mostly due to an increase in demand after the elections and interest rate cuts, while new listing levels remained fairly subdued in comparison to previous years.
Herron Todd White's monthly reporting of the property market saw no changes to their property clock, which puts capitals and sub-regions in to stages of the property cycle.
They said time will tell how the bush fires will play out both economically and politically for the remainder of the year, and what impacts it may have on the wider property market.
 
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wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

Sydney prices to increase around 10 per cent over 2020: Herron Todd White

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Sydney house prices will remain close to unchanged in the year to December 2019 after falling by about 8% in 2018, according to the latest Domain forecasts.
Domain predicts house prices will grow modestly in 2020.
They believe that house prices will fall by about 12% from their peak of almost $1.2 million in June 2017 to a low point of just above $1 million in mid-2019.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/Sydney%20Domain%201.JPG" alt="">
Source: Domain
Sydney unit prices are expected to be more resilient than house prices.
Domain Economist Trent Wiltshire said: "Unit prices are expected to fall by about 3% over the year to December 2018, but then prices are expected to grow modestly over the next two years at about 3-5%.
"Sydney unit prices are predicted to fall by 6% from their peak of $769,000 in June 2017 to their lowest point of about $720,000.
"At this low point, Sydney unit prices will be back at their late-2016 level.
"The NSW government’s stamp duty concessions are also likely to support unit price growth."
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/Sydney%20Domain%202.JPG" alt="">
Source: Domain 
However, one risk to Sydney unit prices is whether the large pipeline of new unit construction is absorbed.
Given projected strong population growth, Domain is of the opinion that this will not result in city-wide price falls, although some areas with a particularly large amount of new construction may see prices remain weak.
"Tighter lending conditions have weighed heavily on Sydney property prices, particularly for more expensive properties, but we think this is likely to have played out by mid-2019," Wiltshire said. 
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%201.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%201.JPG" alt="">
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%202.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/30/Domain%20forecasts%202.JPG" alt="">
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Sydney house prices will drop 12% from peak: Domain

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It has been increasingly obvious Sydney housing affordability was deteriorating based on the number of years’ worth of income required to purchase a home.
The significant gap also exists between incomes and the cost of renting.
The situation is particularly dire for single income households.
Professor David Adamson, from the University of South Wales, noted in the recent Housing Affordability Income Gap report, that the geography of housing unaffordability was increasingly hurting middle-income families.
Historically rents have been more closely pegged to incomes than property prices, but this link appears to be weakening.
Adamson suggests we have a broken housing system as between 2006 and 2016, Sydney median rents have increased by 76% while incomes have increased by 51%.
"The analysis tells us that this isn’t simply an experience of the few but that occupations often seen as middle-class and well paid are increasingly experiencing housing stress in order to live close to their place of work."
The report concluded typical households face the choice between living a considerable distance from the city, or living in a one-bedroom apartment.
If neither option was practical, these households are effectively forced to accept living in housing stress.
Avoiding stress on a two-bedroom apartment in Sydney’s inner suburbs required a $121,000 income.
The report notes the median rent in Sydney is $530 per week which would be enough to secure a three-bedroom house in Blacktown, but not enough for a two-bedroom unit in Burwood.
The report found two-bedroom units in Sydney’s middle ring are affordable, however affordability income gaps exist in the Canada Bay, Hunters Hill, Ku-ring-gai and Willoughby LGAs. 
Sydney’s outer ring is affordable for renting, although income gaps exist for detached dwellings in Hornsby, Northern Beaches, Sutherland, and The Hills Shire.
Since June 2000, regions in Sydney’s west such as Blacktown and Fairfield have experienced rent increases of 125% and 145% respectively, compared to 87% in Mosman, and 94% in Woollahra.
The effect is even more pronounced in satellite cities on the outskirts of Sydney such as Newcastle, where rents are up 150%, and Wollongong with rents up by 168%. 
With relatively lower incomes, renters of detached dwellings in the outlying locations and regional NSW face housing stress too.
The report acknowledges the 30-year boom in house prices has made a lot of people extremely wealthy, "at least on paper".
It then suggests the wealth effect was "perhaps why so many have been willing to turn a blind eye to the economic and social fallout for so long".
It slammed policy makers for "aiding this wilful blindness by using cheap credit and immigration to create the illusion of an economy running on all cylinders".
The AHIG report noted dwelling prices have experienced modest declines over the year with Sydney leading the way, down 4.5%.
"It would be a mistake however for policy makers to take this as a sign that no action is required," the report concluded, noting for Australian housing to meet any accepted definition of affordability, prices would have to fall by 60% from the 2017 peak.
It conceded any major fall in prices could spark a deep and painful recession.
However a recession "sparked by a housing bust should be viewed as an opportunity to address the systemic problems that enabled the emergence of the crisis in the first place,' it ill-advisedly countenances.
This article first appeared in The Daily Telegraph. 
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Sydney's rental affordability is hurting middle-income families 

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Both houses and apartments in Sydney have begun their decline, according to the latest Herron Todd White property clock.
The valuation firm put Melbourne apartments at their peak, with Melbourne houses approaching their peak.
There are two capital cities with property markets at the bottom, Adelaide units and Darwin houses.
Brisbane, Canberra and Perth units are in decline. Perth houses are approaching the bottom of the market 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/6/Clock_Houses.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/6/Clock_Houses.jpg" alt="">
Sydney houses were at their peak last month and in September when HTT noted the "frenzied" house buying was fading.
Sydney houses and units were also deemed to be in decline in August. Sydney units stayed in decline in September and October.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/6/Clock_Units.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/6/Clock_Units.jpg" alt="">
 
 
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Sydney houses and apartments in price decline: HTW property clock

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Property, just like any other investment class, follows cycles where prices can rise, fall or plateau.
Sydney got a rare taste of a dip in September, according to CoreLogic, when it joined Darwin with values falling.
It was no great surprise, and not by much though.
After getting 80 percent percent higher over an extended five year upswing, Sydney dwelling values slipped 0.1 percent lower over the month to a $909,000 median, it’s first month-on-month decline in 17 months.
Ofcourse the headline figure is accompanied by increasing resale activity at lower prices.
The most recent CoreLogic pain gain report noted 2.6 percent of Sydney houses and 1.8 percent of units had been resold recently at a price lower than their purchase price.
This is a very low volume of resales making a loss as the national figure sits for houses at 8.1 percent and 13.3 percent for units.
Many Sydney council areas recorded no loss over the March quarter including Waverley, Ashfield, Burwood, Hunters Hill and Kogarah.
The council areas with the highest proportion of resales at a loss were Wollondilly (5.9%), Hurstville (5.7%) and Hawkesbury (4.8%).
The ups and downs in pricing can be typically explained through the classic economic theory of supply and demand and exuberance.
The rising volume of new stock on the Sydney market - both auction and private treaty - is likely to place further pressure on the market during spring, as volumes are sitting some 15 per cent higher than last October.
The Sydney property market is more likely to experience an extended plateau rather than any doomsday crash scenario due to the relatively low unemployment rate and heightened population growth.
CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless says that prices in Sydney will probably trend lower into 2018, although continued strong demand for housing, along with the likelihood that interest rates will remain low, will help to support a floor under housing prices.
I'd suggest much depends on Sydney investors who appear to have momentarily called time out in part because they are now paying higher interest rates after restrictive lending practices by banks.
The investors' response is an understandable reaction to policy initiatives by APRA, the financial regulator, for market cooling.
Residential investor activity has declined sharply in NSW as the latest data from the ABS reported that approved residential investor loans for buyers totalled $5.7 billion over July which was down 22 percent on June.
Sales data indicates that NSW investors were slightly more likely to incur a loss on the resale of their property than owner occupiers. Over the March quarter, 1.9 percent of investors resold their home at a loss compared to 1.8 percent of owner occupiers. 
Buying when everyone wants to sell increases the chance of quickly profiting from property, not that we've seen much flipping intent among buyers as the typical hold period has been six years. 
The time held is important, especially to sit out selling during downturns.
Sensing and tracking the price cycles can pay dividends for savvy home buyers and investors, as there are times when property purchasing can result in a wonderful early gain.
This article was first published in the Saturday Daily Telegraph.
 
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