<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bates-smart">Bates Smart</a> is one of Melbourne's longest standing architecture firms.

Founded in Melbourne in 1853 by Joseph Reed, the firm began as Reed &amp; Barnes and has evolved through various partnerships before adopting the Bates Smart name in the 20th century. With a continuous presence spanning more than 170 years, the practice has played a pivotal role in shaping Melbourne’s architectural identity.

In the 19th century, Bates Smart designed several of Melbourne’s enduring landmarks, including the Royal Exhibition Building (1880), a UNESCO World Heritage site, and the Melbourne Town Hall. The firm’s influence continued into the 20th century with notable works such as Ici House (1958), considered Melbourne’s first modern skyscraper and a milestone in post-war Australian architecture.

One of their landmark designs was&nbsp;The First Church of Christ, Scientist, at 336-340 St Kilda Road. The building, which is listed on the Victorian Heritage Register, was designed by Bates, Peeble and Smart with construction completed in 1922. Architecturally, the building is significant as a rare example of early twentieth century classicism applied to a religious building. Historically, the building is significant as the first church of the Christian Science movement.

Melbourne developer Time &amp; Place decided to bring Bates Smart back to the area to design their next residential apartment project, Park Modern.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138453 project_image_fid=2138]

<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/park-modern-south-melbourne-1-middleton-lane-south-melbourne-vic-3205">Park Modern</a>, on one of the largest island sites on the Melbourne CBD fringe, bordered by Dorcas Street, Wells Street, and Middleton Lane, will comprise two sculptural towers. It is being positioned as a design-forward response to evolving owner-occupier preferences in the Domain precinct.

Tim Price, Director at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/time-place">Time &amp; Place</a>, says&nbsp;Bates Smart have got a footprint on this city, probably like no other architect.

"It’s a really nice kind of next chapter story, that they created from a design perspective so long ago," Price told Apartments.com.au.

Park Modern will be the third time Time &amp; Place has worked with Bates Smart, having successfully designed and delivered Collins House and Opera on St Kilda Road together.

The brief focused on creating a built form that would feel contextually appropriate while offering a contemporary evolution of inner-city apartment living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138453 project_image_fid=2137]

The focus for Park Modern is squarely on owner-occupiers.

“It’s not always about downsizing," Price says.

"Sometimes it’s just about creating a space which is easily maintained, lock up and leave, reflecting people’s aspirations, whether they’re entertainers, big dining room spaces, big open terraces, they’re important parts of any design consideration.”

The building includes a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, as well as penthouses, with layouts and floor plans designed to suit a broad demographic. The architecture has been shaped to capture&nbsp;view corridors to the Botanic Gardens, Port Phillip Bay and the CBD skyline.

Each apartment has been oriented to maximise natural light and provide a clear outlook, elements often cited by owner-occupiers as key criteria.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138453 project_image_fid=351806]

Rather than defaulting to a generic luxury offering, the amenity strategy at Park Modern reflects specific insights into how residents want to live. The ground floor will include co-working areas, wellness facilities, and a concierge-led lobby that blends indoor and outdoor design cues.

“Wellness has become a more thoughtful consideration, not just gyms or lap pools, but things like magnesium plunge pools, saunas, daybeds, and studio spaces for Pilates and the regular cardio workout,” says Price.

One notable inclusion is a substantial porte-cochère, a covered vehicle drop-off zone integrated into the site plan. It’s a feature rarely seen in inner-urban developments and speaks to the team’s emphasis on ease of arrival and departure for residents and guests.

A display suite for Park Modern is now open by appointment, giving prospective buyers an early look at the project.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=138453]

Joel Robinson

100 years on, Bates Smart returns to South Melbourne's Domain Precinct to design Park Modern

One of the most significant beachfront projects ever proposed for the small suburb of Miami on the Gold Coast, has taken a major step forward.&nbsp;Monaco Property Group has secured approval for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nalu-miami-122-marine-parade-qld-4220">NALU</a>, a $500 million development comprising just 45 ultra-luxury residences on the iconic former Nobby’s Outlook site.

Acquired by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/monaco-property-group">Monaco Property Group</a> in 2024 for $70 million, the rare 7,238 sqm Marine Parade parcel boasts more than 80 metres of uninterrupted ocean frontage.

With approvals now secured, Monaco Property Group will move NALU into its delivery phase. The project has been designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, who collaborated with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/ldg-landscape-architecture">LDG Landscape Architecture</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/tom-mark-henry">Tom Mark Henry Interiors</a>&nbsp;to create the low-rise building, its landscaping, and interiors.

<img alt="NALU" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3fdf578e-7cc4-4b17-bbc2-ba853522a5d8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/122_Marine_Parade_002.jpg?VersionId=zFhJWVzX0jmCO.5iIIxNELImHesTjWS4" />

Residences will range from 237 sqm layouts to beachfront homes exceeding 1,400 sqm.

At the heart of the project is a 2,200 sqm lifestyle precinct with a bathhouse, fitness centre and resort-style pool, elevated by a concierge service.

Jonathan Grasso, Co-Founder of Monaco Property Group, said the council approval marks an exciting milestone for NALU, which will launch in Q1 2026.

“The project will now progress toward construction, working alongside our world-class collaborators to bring NALU to life," Grasso said.

“Our vision is to create a legacy project for the Gold Coast, one that not only honours the history of the site but also elevates its future, setting a new standard for coastal living in Australia. NALU embodies the pinnacle of design and location and will stand as an enduring icon of prestige and liveability.”

<img alt="NALU" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6ae8545b-87ca-4dea-90ed-ac273ec6515d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Image7.jpg?VersionId=Wnmie4bu3x2WQonnG4Pwmh39NdZVKeOV" />

Originally developed in the 1970s as Nobby’s Outlook and later refurbished in 2019 as Nalu, the property has long held a place in the local community’s coastal identity. The new vision will build on this legacy, creating luxury residences that capture ocean views while fostering a lifestyle defined by wellness, connection, and ease.&nbsp;

Beyond its residential offering, NALU will deliver significant economic benefits to the Gold Coast through job creation and opportunities for local suppliers and contractors. Construction is anticipated to commence in early 2026, with completion expected in Q3 2028.

Monaco Property Group approved for $500 million NALU apartments on Miami beach

The most elevated residential tower in Palm Beach, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/corallo-palm-beach-5-palm-beach-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Corallo</a>, has officially launched this week, however only a handful of buyers will have an opportunity to buy in to the 17-storey project.

The $200 million mixed-use project includes ground floor dining and retail and is considered so valuable its developer, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/changfa-group">Changfa Group</a>, will be staging its release of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments and penthouses to the market.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112194 project_image_fid=806]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/colliers">Colliers</a> International, Director, David Higgins, said the development’s location just metres from the beach on the corner of Palm Beach Avenue and the Gold Coast Highway influenced the sculptural design by the acclaimed Plus Architecture studio.

“<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a> locals understand the rare opportunity here at Corallo, particularly being the tallest building in the suburb and its proximity to the beach and local restaurants, and they’ve represented the bulk of pre-launch enquiries,” Higgins said.

“The orientation of the apartments captures views of the coastline from Surfers Paradise to Currumbin, and the diversity of floor plans and apartment types provide an exceptional level of choice.

“The first release includes just 59 one-, two and three-bedroom apartments and two half-floor penthouses, with flexible use designed to appeal to both owner-occupiers and investors."

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112194 project_image_fid=799]

In addition to the ground floor amenity, residents will also have access to a private dedicated wellness level offering 734 sqm of resort-style amenities including a pool, cold plunge, wet deck, steam room, sauna, gym, day bed, fire pit, barbecue area, dining area and yoga/stretch deck.

The project is located within walking distance of Tallebudgera Creek, Burleigh Heads village, Currumbin Alley and Palm Beach Currumbin High School. The Gold Coast Airport is under 10 minutes away.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112194 project_image_fid=814]

Higgins said Palm Beach remained a hotly contested suburb for home buyers, with prices doubling in the past five years.

“What makes Corallo so appealing to the local market is the diversity of apartment types and pricing, with one-bedroom apartments starting from $841,000 and two-bedroom apartments starting from $1.34 million,” he said.

“The ground floor retail and dining offering will further expand on Palm Beach’s village atmosphere and create a meeting place for locals, and those opportunities for connection are highly valued.”

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112194 project_image_fid=807]

The on-site sales display, which includes a fully fitted kitchen, bathroom and bedroom, will be open until early works commence in Q1 2026. Each residence at Corallo will feature premium finishes including natural stone, artisanal brickwork, and warm copper accents.

Changfa Group has a two-decade history of delivering premium developments in Australia and internationally, having recently completed its collection of premium townhomes at Lyra, Hope Island, as well as apartment projects in Leichhardt, Carlingford, and Chatswood in New South Wales.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112194]

$200 million Corallo Palm Beach launches with limited apartment release

In a move that aligns with NSW's accelerated planning incentives for affordable housing, developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/the-one-collection">One Collection</a> has revised its Hills District apartment plans, and taken it to the NSW Government, to secure approval.

The developer, which is currently delivering Horizon Hurstville, is seeking to add 80 more apartments to its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-castle-hill-16-dawes-avenue-nsw-2154">Castle Hill development</a> near Castle Towers. They already have approval for 280 apartments across eight six-storey buildings.

<img alt="One Collection" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b3c298ba-1cc5-4db7-9872-607c75f8ceca" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-10-13%20at%2010.19.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=wN9KpFIu5ENSGZLLsaZgXQHrXcwEO3Vd" />

Now on the desks of the NSW Department of Planning is 360 apartments, 48 of which will be dedicated to affordable housing.&nbsp;Affordable housing is to be “fully integrated within the building and visually indistinguishable,” according to the planning submission.

The 15,697 sqm block, an amalgamation of 16 sites, spans across Dawes Avenue, Hughes Avenue, and Camdan Crescent, sits 550m from Hills Showground Metro Station.&nbsp;

"The existing context is quickly changing from free-standing homes into residential flat buildings in line with the Hills Showground Precinct planning framework," Place Studio noted.

<img alt="Castle Hill" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3ec24948-c185-48fa-af8b-ed25adf302bf" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-10-13%20at%2010.19.04%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=zNDX.IeRROX1RlDeYcS38xn8w_dqgU2t" />

They said the design was informed by the site's unique condition of having three street frontages and was developed to to respond sensitively to iots surrounding context.

"The design adopted a conventional perpendicular alignment to the primary street frontage. The massing of the development was carefully modulated to align with the evolving character of the neighbourhood. The design ensured that the scale was not excessive or out of context, but instead contributed to a cohesive urban form consistent with emerging developments in the area."

<img alt="Castle Hill" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f83ffdaa-f960-469d-b6fe-abcece57c9ef" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-10-13%20at%2010.19.09%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4oKlCyfaKes7jLi1_EMoqa46w2h_YvDZ" />

The apartment mix will be 46 one-beds, 168 two-bed apartments, and 146 three-bedroom units, with 631 parking spaces proposed.

Along the street frontages, the building heights are four storeys with a 7.5 metre setback, and eight storeys with an 11.5 metre setback. It should cost about $150 million to build.

One Collection works hand-in-hand with the respected development and construction firm Masscon, which has built a reputation for leveraging its expertise in the built environment to take on developments others can't. That's what they're achieving at Horizon Hurstville, having taken over the project to deliver it.

First look: One Collection advances plans for Castle Hill apartments

At Yarra’s Edge, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mirvac">Mirvac</a>’s newest tower under construction, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/trielle-at-yarra-s-edge-docklands-16-point-park-crescent-docklands-vic-3008">Trielle</a>, sets a new benchmark for elevated living. Rising 45 storeys, 12.5 metres from the Yarra River, the landmark building offers residents access to a private wellness retreat and spa, a resident-only golf simulator, and an elegant lounge, dining and bar complete with a self-playing piano, all without ever having to leave home.

Now, that sense of elevation has reached new heights with the Aerus Sub-Penthouses, a limited release of half-floor riverfront residences on the Collins St axis where the sought-after street meets the Yarra River.

Each Aerus Sub-Penthouse, located across levels 42 and 43, represents the most expansive offering within Trielle, aside from the yet-to-be-revealed crowning penthouses. Spanning between 269 and 301 sqm, these residences are designed to capture natural light and uninterrupted views of the city skyline, Yarra River, and Port Phillip Bay.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114216 project_image_fid=3784]

Among the collection are three-bedroom sub penthouses, complemented by a media room, and expansive four-bedroom layouts. All include panoramic living areas and oversized master suites with luxury ensuites reminiscent of a five-star hotel, complemented by dedicated dressing rooms finished in timber and natural stone.

The interiors have been crafted by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/mirvac-design">Mirvac Design</a>, the developer’s award-winning in-house architecture and design team. Every material has been chosen for quality and longevity, from sculpted stone island benches with feature soft wash LED lighting to bespoke joinery and chevron timber oak flooring.

Kitchens are fitted with a BORA induction cooktop with integrated downdraft extractor, alongside Gaggenau appliances, including a fridge, freezer, and wine fridge. The adjoining butler’s pantry incorporates the exclusive Gaggenau Minimalistic Series including oven, steam oven, microwave, coffee machine and warming drawer, all concealed behind handleless glass panels for a clean, integrated presentation. Bathrooms feature custom Apaisar freestanding baths and basins and natural stone benchtops, continuing Mirvac’s design emphasis on tactile, timeless materials.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114216 project_image_fid=353085]

Michael Wiener, Design Director at Mirvac, says The Aerus Sub-Penthouse embodies the apex of Mirvac’s design ethos.

“Moving through your home is like walking on air - a private sanctuary where the craftsmanship is refined, the proportions generous, and the flow so effortless, you feel completely at ease in the sky,” Wiener says.

“In Aerus, we wanted to create a sense of weightlessness - a home that feels suspended in the skyline, full of light, grounded in luxury.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=114216 project_image_fid=3777]

The Aerus Sub-Penthouses are expected to attract a mix of local and international buyers seeking a long-term residence of scale and quality in a riverfront setting, from returning expats to established families and business owners who value privacy, craftsmanship, and convenience within walking distance of the CBD.

With an unmatched suite of amenities, Trielle is the most extensively appointed development Mirvac has created to date at Yarra’s Edge. Within the tower will be The Oasis, a 900 sqm podium rooftop wellness retreat designed in collaboration with spa expert Naomi Gregory. Located seven storeys above the Yarra River promenade, it features a 25-metre lap pool, spa and sauna, hot magnesium spa, biophilic gym, yoga and Pilates studio, cold-pail contrast treatment, and day spa treatment rooms. Further amenities include a piano lounge, bookable dining room, cinema room, golf simulator studio, games room, teppanyaki bar, dog wash bay, and two flexible work hubs, The Biblioteca library and Mills Place office space, catering to residents’ evolving lifestyle needs.

Construction of the $350 million tower is underway through Mirvac’s in-house construction arm, with completion anticipated for mid-2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=114216]

Sky-high sanctuaries: Mirvac unveils The Aerus sub-penthouses at Trielle

Slowdown

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Dwelling value growth has slowed as demand from investor’s falls; is this just a coincidence or does it highlight just how reliant the housing market has become on demand from the investor segment?
Over the past five years, dwelling values nationally have increased by 39.3% largely driven by Sydney and Melbourne where values have increased by a much larger amount.  Similarly, over the most recent five years investors have committed to housing finance commitments totaling $695.6 billion.  
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-img1.png" alt="2017-11-15--img1" width="570" height="288">
At their peak in May 2015, investors accounted for 54.8% of new (excluding refinances) mortgage demand which was an historic high.  With investor demand now slowing, falling a further -6.2% in September 2017 and dwelling values falling in the most investor-centric city (Sydney), what impact is the investor slowdown going to have on the broader housing market?  To try and determine, we shall take a look at investor housing demand across each state and territory.
<h3>NSW </h3>
At their peak in May 2015, investors accounted for 63.6% of new mortgage demand which has since fallen to 50.3% in September 2017, its lowest proportion since December 2015 and well below its five year average of 55.6% of new mortgage commitments.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-nsw.png" alt="2017-11-15--nsw" width="570" height="471">
<h3>Vic</h3>
investors currently account for 43.2% of new mortgage demand which is well down from the May 2015 peak of 54.7% and below the five year average of 46.9%.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-vic.png" alt="2017-11-15--vic" width="570" height="465">
<h3>Qld</h3>
Investor activity peaked all the way back in 2007 when investors comprised 49.3% of mortgage demand.  Investors currently account for 34.3% of new mortgage lending which is lower than the five year average of 40.8%.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-qld.png" alt="2017-11-15--qld" width="570" height="461">
<h3>SA</h3>
Investor activity peaked at 47.5% of new mortgage lending in June 2015 and has reduced to 36.9% in September 2017.  Over the past five years, investors have accounted for an average of 39.8% of new mortgage lending each month.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-sa.png" alt="2017-11-15--sa" width="570" height="470">
<h3>WA </h3>
Investor participation peaked all the way back in December 2008 at 49.8% of new mortgage lending.  Over the past five years, investors have averaged 38.1% of new mortgage lending and were recorded at 33.6% in September 2017.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-wa.png" alt="2017-11-15--wa" width="570" height="468">
<h3>Tas</h3>
Over the past five years, investors have averaged 30.3% of new mortgage demand in the state while in September 2017 investors accounted for a slightly higher 33.3% of new mortgage demand.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-tas.png" alt="2017-11-15--tas" width="570" height="470">
<h3>NT</h3>
After peaking at 61.5% of new mortgage demand in June 2014, investors have slumped to just 34.1% of demand in September 2017 which is much lower than the five year average of 49.2%.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-nt.png" alt="2017-11-15--nt" width="570" height="460">
<h3>ACT</h3>
Investors currently account for 38.2% of new mortgage demand which is lower than the five year average of 43.0% and much lower than the historic high of 50.4% all the way back in June 2000.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-act.png" alt="2017-11-15--act" width="570" height="464">
The data shows that as mortgage demand from investors, particularly in NSW, has slowed, so too has the rate of value growth.  In fact, Sydney dwelling values are now falling as investor demand continues to fade. Melbourne has also seen value growth slow although not to the same magnitude as Sydney however, investor participation over recent years in Vic has not been as significant as in NSW.  Outside of NSW and Vic, investors have not been the most significant source of new mortgage housing demand over recent years.
A similar trend was evident when credit conditions were tightened after the first round of APRA’s macroprudential policy changes through 2015 and early 2016.
With investor demand continuing to reduce due to tighter credit conditions, low yields and affordability constraints, it is reasonable to expect that this will have the greatest impact on NSW housing markets followed by those in Vic.  Elsewhere, the changing landscape may slow markets a little but other states and territories have largely seen demand over recent years driven by owner occupiers.  If anything, the lack of value growth in these market, superior affordability and less demand from investors may make buying conditions slightly more favourable for owner occupiers.
Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Is the market slowdown driven by investors?

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released demographic data for the December 2014 quarter yesterday. The data highlighted a continuing slowdown in the rate of national population growth, with the quarterly increase now lower than slump in population growth recorded during the GFC. In particular the mining states and territories are recording the biggest slowdown in population growth fueled by a slowdown in both interstate and overseas migration.
<a href="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-13.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-13.jpg" alt="">
 
The data showed that throughout 2014 Australia added another 330,202 persons.  Although this is still a relatively high rate of population growth, it is the lowest annual increase in population since the population increased by 327,637 persons over the 12 months to September 2011.  Over the final quarter of the year the national population increased by 64,010 persons which was its lowest quarterly increase since June 2006 (52,834).
<a href="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-23.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-23.jpg" alt="">
 
At a national level population growth is comprised of overseas migration (arrivals minus departures) and natural increase (births minus deaths), any interstate migration is neutral at a national level.  Over the past year, the country experienced a natural increase of 146,067 persons and net overseas migration of 184,135 persons.  The rate of annual natural increase is at its lowest level since December 2006 (139,793) and annual net overseas migration is at its lowest level since June 2011 (180,372).  On a quarterly basis, natural increase was recorded at 36,517 persons (its lowest level since December 2006) and net overseas migration was recorded at 46,034 persons (its lowest level since June 2011).
<a href="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-33.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-33.jpg" alt="">
With the national population increasing by 330,202 persons over the past year, the majority of population growth has taken place in the largest states.  NSW (31.2%) and Vic (30.7%) accounted for a combined 61.9% of national population growth.  If you add Qld (19.4%) and WA (12.1%) the four largest states accounted for 93.5% of national population growth over the year.
As far as the rate of population growth goes, for the first time since September 2006 WA is no longer the state with the most rapid rate of population growth with Vic taking over the mantle. Vic’s population increased by 1.8% over the year followed by: WA (1.6%), NSW and Qld (both 1.4%), ACT (1.1%), SA (0.9%), NT (0.4%) and Tas (0.3%).  Qld, WA and NT in particular are seeing the impact of the mining downturn with fewer workers required in these states as the pipeline of major infrastructure projects winds down translating into slower population growth. Two years ago these states were recording annual population growth of 2.0% in Qld, 3.7% in WA and 2.8% in NT.
<a href="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-42.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-42.jpg" alt="">
Net overseas migration has been slowing at a national level and as the above chart shows, all states are experiencing a fall in net overseas migration.  The full brunt of the slowdown in net overseas migration is once again being felt by the resource states.  Annual net overseas migration is -30.9% lower in Qld, -47.6% lower in WA and -56.0% lower in NT.  All other states except for NSW (+1.9%) and ACT (+4.1%) have recorded a fall in net overseas migration over the year, but nowhere near the extent of the mining states and territories.  The declines in these states were recorded at -4.2% in Vic, -9.0% in SA and -2.9% in Tas.  The data also highlights that overseas migrants have a clear preference to settle in the larger states.  Over the past year, 37.9% of net migration occurred in NSW with a further 30.4% in Vic, 13.2% in Qld and 10.3% in WA.
<a href="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-53.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-53.jpg" alt="">
 
At a national level net interstate migration has no impact however, it does have a significant impact across individual states.  Over the 12 months to December 2014, there were 335,256 interstate movements across the Australian states.  Historically Qld has attracted as high number of interstate migrants however; net interstate migration to the state has slowed sharply over recent years.  Across the states, Vic now attracts the most net interstate migrants (9,336) followed by Qld (5,598) and these are the only two states that have recorded a net gain in interstate migration over the year.  Vic’s net gain from interstate migration is a record high while migration to Qld is at its lowest level on record.  The net outflow of residents from the remaining states was recorded at: -5,572 persons in NSW, -2,744 in SA, -400 in WA, -1,278 in Tas, -3,392 in NT and -1,548 in ACT.  Despite the net outflow, the net number of residents leaving NSW is at a record low.  On the other hand the loss of residents from WA is the largest since September 2003 and the outflow from NT is the largest on record.
In terms of natural increase the states with the largest overall populations also have the greatest natural increase.  There has been a sharp decline in natural increase in NSW over the past few years while natural increase is trending higher in WA.  The state-by-state shares of natural increase are: 26.5% in NSW, 24.8% in Vic, 23.5% in Qld, 4.9% in SA, 14.8% in WA, 1.0% in Tas, 2.0% in NT and 2.6% in ACT.
The demographic data highlights challenges for the Australian economy and individual states. Gross domestic product has been slowing and is much lower on a per capita basis. With population growth slowing and set to slow further in coming quarters (as foreshadowed in the monthly overseas arrivals and departures data) this poses a challenge for the national economy.  The resource states in particular are being impacted as they are attracting fewer migrants from both interstate and overseas. Conversely, NSW and Vic (which are a proxy for Sydney and Melbourne) are the places that both domestic and international migrants want to head to. 
This in turn fuels demand for housing, creates the need for more jobs and requires more spending on infrastructure. To-date it doesn’t look as if the sharp rises in home values in Sydney and to a lesser degree Melbourne over recent years is stopping migrants heading to these areas. You would have to think that at some point this will change but no one has a crystal ball to know exactly when that inflection point will occur. Particularly given how low the cost of debt currently is with interest rates so low, furthermore rental pressures are easing given already high new housing construction and a record high pipeline of approvals to potentially follow.
Cameron Kusher is RP Data’s senior research analyst. Follow Cameron on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/cmkusher" target="_blank">here</a>. 
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Australia’s rate of population growth continues to slow: Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
There is a bit of economic gloom around with reports of the residential market slowing down and house prices starting to come off and decrease in our major capital cities.
Nobody uses the word “crash” but many commentators hint at a housing market crisis. The retail sector continues its own steep decline and add to this that the Australian dollar has fallen to its lowest level since 2016 and is forecast to continue to fall even lower.
While these conditions make banking and finance types jittery and also make great Page One headlines in newspapers – they also present a perfect opportunity for the next wave of investors in Australian property: Aussie ex-pats.
It is easy to forget about Aussie ex-pats as they are literally not here, and are spread across the globe but mostly concentrated in the United Kingdom and United States of America.
Studies show that there are more than 346,000 Australian ex-pats around the world and most left our shores for their careers with 43% of expatriates citing 'better employment opportunities', 36% 'professional development' and 32% gave 'higher income' as a reason for emigrating.
While the ex-pats pursue successful and fulfilling careers overseas, they become older and start to settle down and inevitably start to either think about or plan when they will return to Australia. For some this is driven by having children and wanting them to have an Australian education and for others it is about ageing family or simply just wanting to come home.
The combination of a slowing residential market and low Australian dollar suddenly makes locking in investment properties back at home much cheaper and more appealing. Put simply, the falling Australian dollar and softening house prices could mean Aussie expat investors could snap up two properties instead of one – or go for a larger house instead of an apartment.
But it isn’t all smooth sailing when parking their hard-earned cash back on home turf and expats will need to do their homework and also seek professional advice as the processes they need to navigate can be a minefield.
Some expats can find the lending process a little arduous – especially if they don’t already own property in Australia.
Banks typically class expats as a non-standard borrower and may require a higher deposit and more stringent proof of income requirements.
It is also critical for expats thinking of building a portfolio of Australian investment properties to consider their individual tax position and whether they are an Australian resident for tax purposes.
Amid the economic gloom our own Aussie expats could be a beacon of light and add significantly to investment sales in coming years.
James Nihill is the Managing Director of Patrick Leo
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Aussie Expats the next wave of investors: James Nihill

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Dwelling values across the country have slipped a further 0.2 percent over the month of June to be 0.8 percent lower over the year, according to CoreLogic's June Home Value Index.
It's the ninth consecutive month on month fall in national dwelling values, taking them 1.3 percent less than their September peak.
Melbourne was one of the weakest performers over June, with its 0.4 percent declines only being topped by Perth (0.5 percent).
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/7/2/dwelling%20change.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/7/2/dwelling%20change.jpg" alt="">
CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless said despite recent and consistent monthly falls, national dwelling values remain 32.4% higher than five years ago.
“This highlights the wealth creation that many home owners have experienced over the recent growth phase, but also the fact that recent home buyers could be facing negative equity.”
“Tighter finance conditions and less investment activity have been the primary drivers of weaker housing market conditions and we don’t see either of these factors relaxing over the second half of 2018, despite APRA’s 10 per cent investment speed limit being lifted this month.”
The June quarter results saw national dwelling values fall by half a percent, driven by a 0.8% drop in values across the combined capital cities.
The capital city decline was partially offset by a 0.6% rise in values across the combined regional markets.
The largest decline amongst the capitals over the June quarter was in Melbourne, with dwelling values down 1.4%, followed by Sydney (-0.9%), Darwin (-0.8%) and Perth (-0.7%).
Hobart continues to show the strongest capital gain trend amongst the capital cities with dwelling values rising a further 2.3% over the past three months. Although housing market trends remain very positive across Hobart, the quarterly pace has eased relative to the March quarter when values were up 3.4%. Values also trended higher across Adelaide (+0.9%), Brisbane (+0.3%) and Canberra (+0.2%) over the second quarter of 2018.
Declines are more pronounced across the most expensive quarter of the market. Based on the CoreLogic stratified hedonic index, values across the most expensive quartile of capital city properties were down 1.5% over the past three months while the least expensive quartile saw values hold firm. Similarly, over the past twelve months, the most expensive end of the market recorded a decline of 3.6%, while the least expensive end of the market recorded a 1.4% gain.
Declines across the most expensive sector of the capital city market is largely attributable to the declines in Sydney and Melbourne, where the upper quartile of property values fell by 7.3% and 2.5% respectively over the past twelve months.
“A surge in first home buyer activity has helped support demand across the more affordable price points in these cities," Lawless said.
Despite its capital city dwelling market cooling, some of the more affordable regions of Melbourne remain in a strong growth position.
Across the capital cities regions, five of the top 10 best performing areas over the last financial year came from across the outer areas of the Melbourne metropolitan area.
Click here<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/7/2/regional-declines.jpg" target="_blank"> to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/7/2/regional-declines.jpg" alt="">
The Mornington Peninsula showed the highest annual capital gain outside of Hobart.
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

National dwelling values drop for ninth consecutive month led by Melbourne slowdown: CoreLogic

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Homeowners re-emerged from the summer break to list their property in a slowing market as listings across the nation rose in February by 4.6 percent to 317,984, according to SQM Research.
It was the nation's two biggest property markets, Sydney and Melbourne, that recorded the highest rise in listings.
They had a 19.3 percent jump in listings, closely followed by Melbourne at 19.1 percent.
Sydney’s listings are up by 22.3 percent from the same time last year, reflecting a large increase in properties available for sale as some homeowners seek to take profits given a slowing in the property market.
In contrast to other capital cities, listings were down in Hobart by 2.7 percent in February, to be down 31.8 percent from a year earlier, with a deep shortage of homes available for sale. 
Melbourne stock levels also remain down from last year by about 10 percent, though a shortage of properties for sales has eased in that city. 
Click here<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/3/6/sqm1.jpg" target="_blank"> to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/6/sqm1.jpg" alt="">
In Canberra, listings jumped by 15.5 percent, to be up 5 percent from the same time last year. In Brisbane, stock on market rose by 2.4 percent in February while in Perth listings rose by 2.9 percent. Listings barely changed in Darwin with a rise of just 0.1 percent over the month, to be up by just 0.4 percent over the year.
Louis Christopher, managing director of SQM Research said the rise was expected.
“The rise in February listings was expected as homeowners listed their properties with the new year well underway," he said.
"That helped to take the pressure off asking property prices, which were down in capital cities over the month to 6 March, especially in Sydney.
“We are also seeing increasing levels of stock hit the market in Melbourne, which may help to ease property price growth over the first half of 2018. 
“However, in Hobart, home seekers are frustrated by a steep shortfall of properties available for sale as a combination of sharp price rises and the small amount of residential property there keep listings down,” he said.
Asking Prices
Capital city average asking prices fell one percent for houses and 0.7 percent for units for the month to 6 March. The largest monthly fall came in Sydney, where asking house prices fell 1.5 percent and asking unit prices slipped 0.6 percent. Over the year, prices are up by 5.5 percent and 5.9 percent, respectively.
Gains too have moderated in Hobart, with asking price for units up by just 1.1 percent over the year after falling 1.3 percent over the month. Asking house prices rose by 5.7 percent over the year after falling 0.4 percent over the month despite the shortage of properties for sale.
Year-on-year, asking prices are up most in Melbourne, with asking prices for houses up 19.9 percent and unit prices up 13.7 percent.  Canberra too has recorded strong gains, with asking house prices up 16.6 percent over the year and asking unit prices up 7.8 percent. 
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/3/6/sqm2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/6/sqm2.jpg" alt="">
 
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Higher listings and lower asking prices in a slowing market: SQM Research

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<div>House prices are likely to rise only modestly across Asia-Pacific (APAC) in 2018, with regulatory tightening, rising interest rates and declining affordability acting as a drag in most markets, says Fitch Ratings in a new report.  Monetary tightening in the next few years - globally and within the region - will gradually bring to an end the ideal conditions that have supported housing markets over much of the last decade.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/1/24/fitch%201.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/1/24/fitch%201.jpg" alt="">
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, tightening is unlikely to be enough to trigger a sharp correction during 2018, Fitch suggest. Regulators have taken steps to contain price rises in most of APAC's major markets in recent years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"There were signs of these steps gaining traction in 2017 in the main hotspots - Australia, New Zealand and China - where price growth slowed from the double- to single-digits. "Several APAC markets will soon start to feel the impact of China's limits on overseas foreign-currency transfers.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Australia and New Zealand have attracted particularly strong Chinese investment.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Australia has placed its own limits on foreign, non-resident buyers, while we expect New Zealand to introduce restrictions this year. "We forecast house-price growth across Australia's eight capital cities to slow to 2%, from 5% in 2017.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Low interest rates and high population growth are likely to support prices, but rising supply, falling rental yields, tighter lending standards, foreign-ownership restrictions, and income growth lagging cost of living increases will dampen price gains.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Moreover, stable economic performance and prudent underwriting standards are likely to help contain increases in arrears as mortgage rates rise.' Fitch forecast arrears in most APAC markets to remain below 0.5%.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"The impact is likely to be slightly more pronounced in Australia and New Zealand as house-price growth stabilises, especially in big cities.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Household debt is high in both countries and most mortgages have flexible rates, which leaves borrowers more exposed to faster-than-expected interest rate rises." </div>
<div>
 There global report advised in New Zealand, strong population growth and sluggish housing construction - particularly in Auckland - are likely to result in continued supply shortages, despite regulatory tightening. We expect house-price growth to pick up, but only slightly, to 3.0%. Fitch's Global Housing and Mortgage Outlook includes analysis of house prices, arrears and mortgage lending volumes for 22 countries, including Australia, China, Japan, Korea, New Zealand and Singapore in APAC.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>National house prices are forecast to rise this year in 19 of 22 markets highlighted by Fitch Ratings in a new report, but growth is expected to slow in most markets and risks are growing as the prospect of gradually rising mortgage rates comes into view this year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/1/24/fitch%204.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/1/24/fitch%204.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Arrears are at very low levels in most markets. They will only move in one direction as mortgage rates rise slowly due to higher policy rates and more expensive bank funding from the gradual unwinding of quantitative easing. Floating-rate loans and borrowers refinancing to new rates will be first affected," said Suzanne Albers, Senior Director, Structured Finance, Fitch Ratings. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>"We expect home prices to stabilise in Sydney and Melbourne. However, if corrections are only limited after several years of very high growth, the risk of large price declines in future downturns remains," added Ms. Albers. </div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
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Australian house price growth to slow to 2 percent: Fitch Ratings

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Rating agency Moody’s has sounded a caveat for banks in Australian, Canada and Sweden, saying they are increasingly sensitive to economic shocks that could result from a slump in house prices after a more than 16-year surge. 
In the report, "Banking -- Global; Possible house price drop poses some risk for Canadian, Swedish, Australian banks," Moody's Investors Service compares the rise in house prices and household indebtedness. 
Between 2000 and 2016, house prices rose by 144% in Sweden, by 115% in Canada and by 113% in Australia. At the same time, household indebtedness has risen sharply, and mortgages now account for 63% of the banking systems' total loan books in Australia, 48% in Sweden and 39% in Canada. 
“Housing market corrections are often triggered by an economic slowdown, but even when they occur without any economic trigger, the attendant uncertainty can weigh on consumer confidence. This can in turn contribute to a slowdown in economic growth, which if severe enough can increase losses across the full range of banks' loan portfolios,” Moody’s said in the report.
“Between May and September 2017, we took rating actions in all three banking systems to reflect this risk, although lenders in these countries remain among our most highly rated globally.” 
Moody's base case is that house prices will continue to climb in Canada and Australia, albeit at a slower pace over the next 12 to 18 months, whereas preliminary data suggest that the housing market may already be turning in Sweden. 
“If there were a house price correction in any of these countries, the combination of protective features built into their mortgage markets, banks' underwriting practices and full recourse loans would limit mortgage losses,” it said. 
"Nonetheless, banks in these countries are exposed to second order effects," said Louise Lundberg, a Vice President and Senior Credit Officer at Moody's. 
Lundberg elaborated by saying that an economic slowdown that would likely accompany a substantial house price correction would lead to higher losses on consumer loans, commercial real estate loans, and loans to consumer-exposed corporates.
In most scenarios, Moody's said it expects banks in these three countries to be able to absorb any loan losses through their earnings. 
“Any impact on their capital levels, which we currently assess as strong to adequate, would likely be limited,” it said. 
Assuming unchanged earnings (although these would likely be negatively impacted in a stressed scenario), loan losses could increase to 2.2% of gross loans in Canada from 0.4% in 2016, to 1.8% in Australia from 0.2%, and to 1.4% in Sweden from 0.1% before eating into capital. 
In Australia, macroprudential measures recently announced by the regulator will likely constrain credit growth, particularly growth in loans to property investors, who account for around 35% of all new mortgages. These measures, along with more stringent underwriting criteria, are likely to reduce customers' borrowing capacity. Overall, we expect the rate of house price appreciation over the next 12 months to slow. 
Rising house prices have led to a sharp decline in housing affordability in all three countries (see Exhibit 2). 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/21/Exhibit2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/11/21/Exhibit2.png" alt="">
Canadian, Swedish and Australian household debt has also risen strongly (see Exhibit 3). Household leverage is highest in Australia, where it reached 212% of net disposable income in 2015, and has risen further since. This compares with 183% in Sweden and 176% in Canada (2016 data). 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/21/Exhibit3.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/11/21/Exhibit3.png" alt="">
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prateek24-ezbwHMbNAk

Australian banks among international lenders exposed to second order housing impact: Moody's

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/80072/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
Looking at data, there is no evidence to support the notion that house prices have <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-02/have-we-finally-reached-peak-house-prices/8584470" target="_blank" style="font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;">peaked</a> or are on the cusp of a <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/heated-house-market-hits-a-ceiling-in-sydney-and-melbourne/news-story/08a7b3f7cdb2feecfbcb15dd82746358" target="_blank" style="font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;">downward trend</a>.
House prices in Australian capital cities <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/capital-city-dwelling-values-rise-0-8-over-june-quarter" target="_blank">rose slightly in June</a> after <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/multiple-indicators-point-to-softer-housing-market-conditions" target="_blank">falling in May</a>. But <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/research/monthly-indices" target="_blank">house price indexes</a> only show what’s happening in the market over a short time frame. Housing markets <a href="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1108/IJHMA-07-2016-0052" target="_blank">are volatile</a> and you could just be looking at a seasonal blip.
Looking at the market fundamentals, there are no signs of a housing market slowdown. These indicators include economic and population growth, the unemployment rate, new housing construction, and auction clearance rates. They give us an idea both of the overall demand in the market, as well as the ability to pay for housing.
As economic and population growth increase, for example, there is both more money to spend as well as more people in need of housing. The rate of new housing construction tells us what will happen to housing supply, and the percentage of housing successfully sold at auctions gives us an idea of where we are in the house price cycle.
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ldRPb/7/" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" width="100%" height="600"></iframe>
<h2>Market fundamentals and key indicators</h2>
As you can see in the chart below, economic growth has been relatively strong in both New South Wales and Victoria. Growth in Gross State Product for both states was 2.6% in 2014-15, and even stronger in 2015-16; this was higher than the GDP growth rate of Australia overall.
This suggests that the local economies of both Melbourne and Sydney are performing better than the overall Australian economy. And a strong economy feeds into more demand for housing.
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/yahFE/4/" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
The next thing to look at is the unemployment rate. A low unemployment rate means that fewer people are under pressure to sell their houses or default on their mortgages. This means the chance of sharp price correction in the housing market is lower when the unemployment rate is low.
Again, the unemployment rate in both New South Wales and Victoria is relatively low, around 4.8% in NSW and 6% in Victoria, <a href="https://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/Downloads/ABSLabourForceRegion" target="_blank">compared with other states</a>. Unemployment is almost 7% in South Australia, for example.
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/PYRCD/6/" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
The auction clearance rate shows the percentage of housing that was successfully sold out of all the auctions that took place. The clearance rate roughly tracks housing prices - a high rate will normally be observed when house prices are high, and the reverse is also true. For example, the auction clearance rate was around 36-50% in Sydney in 2008.
Although the auction clearance rates in Melbourne and Sydney have dropped in recent months, they are still around 70%. This is comparable with the same period last year, giving no indication of a sudden movement in house prices one way or the other.
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ZYdvt/5/" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
The next indicator is the proportion of vacant properties in the housing supply, also known as the vacancy rate. This is used as a gauge of whether there is too much or too little supply of housing in the market. Normally, a housing market is cooling if there are many vacant properties.
The vacancy rate has remained stable in Sydney and Melbourne recently, within a range of 1.7-2.2%. This suggests that there is little evidence of an oversupply of housing, and that housing demand is strong in both markets.
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/AS04o/1/" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" width="100%" height="192"></iframe>
Sydney and Melbourne show signs of strong population growth. This is true not just now, but over the past 6 years. As we can see in the following graph, both cities have recorded growth rates ranging between 13,000 and 43,000 people per quarter.
The strong population growth rate reflects that the fundamental demand for housing in both cities are high. Although more new dwellings have been completed in recent years, the levels are <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/8752.0Dec%202016?OpenDocument" target="_blank">far below population growth</a>. This suggests that there is still more demand than supply in the housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne.
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/V70xi/5/" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
The discrepancy between <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/multiple-indicators-point-to-softer-housing-market-conditions" target="_blank">May’s decline in capital city house prices</a>, and the other indicators that show no slow down in demand, illustrate the problem. These other indicators give you a better idea of overall demand for housing, which is what drives prices over the longer term.
Based on the prices alone, it is too early to tell whether the housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne are slowing or if they are on a downward trend. And the other indicators of the wider economy show us that housing demand is strong. It is only when this changes that you will know that house prices are slowing.
<hr>
This article included contributions from Mustapha Bangura, a PhD student researching housing affordability in Greater Western Sydney.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chyi-lin-lee-368009" target="_blank">Chyi Lin Lee</a>, Associate Professor of Property, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/western-sydney-university-1092" target="_blank">Western Sydney University</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-tell-when-the-housing-market-is-slowing-80072" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Chyilinlee-JrdcVPxeuK

How to tell when the housing market is slowing

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Sydney’s booming property market may be finally taking a breather from the scorching pace it has grown over the last few years.
The clearest indication comes from a slowdown in suburbs that were once hotbeds of investor activity. 
Although property prices continue to grow across the Harbour City, the rate of growth is slowing most significantly in the west and south-west regions, Domain News reported citing new data.
AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver said slowing growth in these regions was “a canary in the coal mine in the sense [APRA] measures and a supply surge is starting to bite”.
“We saw this back in 2005, the west and south-west declines followed through to the inner west,” Dr Oliver said.
“And then it starts to show up in the north and east.
Clearance rates are also starting to slow, with a 67.1 percent rate over the Queen’s Birthday long weekend, a sign that the boom may be coming to an end.  
“The debate now is whether prices will fall or whether there is a deceleration this year with price falls next year,” Oliver was cited as saying by Domain.
Growth in asking prices – an indicator of price growth in the real time private treaty market – has started to slow in recent months. In the year to May 2017, asking prices in the south-west were up 2.3 percent, compared to the 11.9 percent growth experienced the year before.
This was the slowest annual growth since the boom began.
The western suburbs saw a similar pattern too, with 5.7 percent growth to May 2017 compared to 12.3 percent the year before. 
In these areas there is now a “rush to market”, Domain Group chief economist Andrew Wilson noted.
In the west and south-west regions, the number of auctions rose 50 percent and 75 percent respectively in May 2017 compared to a year before. 
“We typically see more sellers at the end of a boom,” Dr Wilson said.
But this has yet to be felt in other areas, where asking prices grew more than 8 per cent, with four areas in double figures.
In the inner west, growth was 11.9 percent over the year to May 2017.
Sydney’s rental yields are now the lowest in the country, at 3.31 percent for houses and 3.99 percent for apartments. This compares to a national average 4.42 percent for houses and 5.01 percent for apartments.
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