The Gold Coast economy has grown by 25 per cent since 2020/21 to surpass $55 billion, but perhaps the more significant story is what sits behind the headline number.

For decades, the Gold Coast has been viewed through the lens of tourism, lifestyle and population growth. The latest State of the City Report suggests that perception is increasingly out of step with reality.

Released by Invest Gold Coast, the report ranks the Gold Coast as Australia's largest non-capital city economy and, perhaps more notably, second nationally behind Sydney for Economic Complexity, a measure that assesses the diversity and sophistication of an economy.

It's a result that places the Gold Coast ahead of Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide, highlighting the extent to which the city's economic base has broadened beyond its traditional industries.

Today, the Gold Coast supports more than 350,000 jobs, is home to over 83,000 businesses and generates $19 billion in annual exports. Manufacturing now accounts for 62 per cent of international export growth, while sectors including health, education, advanced manufacturing, technology and professional services are becoming increasingly important contributors to the local economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=372547]

Gold Coast Mayor Tom Tate said the report confirmed the city's evolution into one of Australia's most significant economies.

"The Gold Coast economy continues to grow at an incredible pace. This is no surprise to those of us who have watched the evolution up close," Mayor Tate said.

"As one of the most entrepreneurial, investment driven and opportunity focused economies in the country our ambition has been realised and possibilities are endless.

"The Gold Coast has built a reputation as the city that says yes. We say yes to investment, yes to opportunity and yes to people who want to build something.

"It's this mindset helping us drive major growth across health, advanced manufacturing, screen production, marine, technology and the knowledge economy."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360975]

While population growth has been one of the defining stories of the past decade, the report points to a broader economic transformation taking place.

The city's knowledge economy now contributes $7.9 billion annually and supports around 31,000 jobs, while the health and wellbeing sector contributes $5.2 billion and employs more than 42,000 people. Together, the six priority sectors identified in the report account for almost $24 billion in economic output and more than 145,000 jobs.

One of the strongest examples is the Gold Coast Health and Knowledge Precinct at Southport. The 200-hectare precinct now contains more than $5 billion worth of health, education, research and innovation infrastructure and supports over 16,000 jobs.

The report also highlights the growing role of advanced manufacturing, particularly in aerospace, defence and modular construction.

Gold Coast-based Gilmour Space Technologies recently became the first Australian commercial company to attempt an orbital launch, while companies including Modscape and ModnPods are helping establish the Yatala-Stapylton corridor as one of Australia's fastest-growing advanced manufacturing hubs.

The city's entrepreneurial culture is also translating into business growth.

Since 2019/20, the number of businesses operating on the Gold Coast has increased by 22 per cent, while firms employing more than 200 people have grown by 80 per cent. The report suggests the next challenge is converting more local start-ups and medium-sized businesses into nationally significant companies.

Development activity remains another key indicator of confidence.

There are currently more than $23 billion worth of major projects underway across the Gold Coast, supported by a record 75 active cranes, a figure that now exceeds Brisbane and represents a 150 per cent increase since 2016.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112024 project_image_fid=343235]

Importantly, the report notes the next phase of investment will need to extend beyond residential development.

While 93 per cent of crane activity is currently tied to housing, Invest Gold Coast argues future investment will increasingly need to focus on cultural, civic, infrastructure and industry-enabling projects that strengthen the city's long-term economic resilience.

Invest Gold Coast Chair Will Hodgman said the city was now benefiting from years of economic diversification.

"What is happening on the Gold Coast is the result of the city's economic base broadening, fuelled by industries with long-term, high-growth potential," Mr Hodgman said.

"This is no longer a secondary Australian economy, the Gold Coast is becoming a globally connected city with deeper capability across health, knowledge and creative industries, advanced manufacturing, technology and exports."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365786]

Looking ahead, the Gold Coast's population is projected to exceed one million residents by 2046.

For a city that was once largely defined by tourism and lifestyle, the latest figures suggest the Gold Coast is becoming something more significant, one of Australia's most diverse and economically sophisticated urban economies, and increasingly one that national and international investors can no longer afford to overlook.

Joel Robinson

75 cranes, $23 billion pipeline and a $55 billion economy: Inside the Gold Coast economic boom

Ron Bakir's Homecorp has sold more than 75 per cent of the apartments in its wellness-driven Florence Residences in Surfers Paradise following its first weekend release.

The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/florence-residences-24-monte-carlo-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">26-storey project on Monte Carlo Avenue</a>, which commenced construction earlier this year, has seen a flurry of buyers secure their slice of the Gold Coast's latest wellbeing-focused offering in one of the nation's most competitive property markets.

Since the pandemic, the Gold Coast's population has grown by more than 11 per cent, a rate approximately four times faster than Sydney's, driven largely by lifestyle changes and interstate migration. While buyer activity has moderated in some markets nationally, demand for newly built dwellings on the Gold Coast continues to gain momentum as purchasers increasingly prioritise lifestyle, amenity, wellbeing, liveability and long-term investment potential.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150414 project_image_fid=372743]

Homecorp CEO Ron Bakir says buyers today are looking for more than just a home.

"What we are seeing is a shift in how people define value in property," Bakir says.

"What attracts residents to new developments is a desire for more than just a residence. They are looking for a place that complements their lifestyle, supports their wellbeing and reflects the way they want to live into the future.

"Lifestyle, longevity, proactive health, wellbeing, connection and a sense of community are increasingly shaping purchasing decisions, particularly on the Gold Coast, where these factors continue to be a major drawcard."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150414 project_image_fid=372744]

Bakir says Homecorp is responding to this shift through an approach that places greater emphasis on design, amenity and experience working together to create places that feel considered, connected and enduring in value.

Inspired by Eastern European design, Florence Residences will comprise 120 apartments alongside a private residents-only wellness club featuring a resort-style rooftop pool, hot and cold plunge pools, a spa retreat, contemporary gymnasium, and a spacious yoga and Pilates studio.

The development will also feature a residents-only lounge with private dining facilities and a rooftop bar, premium outdoor entertaining areas, a hotel-style lobby lounge, generous bike parking, and pet-friendly amenities including a heated dog wash.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150414 project_image_fid=372742]

A limited number of apartments remain available, with an exclusive collection of four-bedroom sub-penthouses set to be released in the coming months.

Florence is one of the latest additions to Homecorp's expanding multi-billion-dollar property portfolio, which also includes plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/homecorp-lodges-plans-for-260-million-moroccan-bathhouse-inspired-tower-in-budds-beach">$260 million development in Budds Beach</a> tailored to the growing wellness market.

A development application has been lodged for a 27-storey, 156-residence tower at 8–10 Acacia Avenue and 25–27 Oak Avenue, featuring a residents-only Moroccan spa-inspired sanctuary.

Apartments at Florence Residences are priced from $1,249,000, with construction expected to be completed by late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150414]

Buyers rush to Homecorp's Florence Residences as Gold Coast wellness trend gains momentum

The NSW Government has expanded its $1 billion Pre-sale Finance Guarantee program, broadening access for affordable housing providers and smaller residential developments as it seeks to accelerate housing delivery across the state.

The Minns Government says the program has already helped bring forward more than 600 homes across Sydney and regional NSW since launching in September 2025, with similar models now adopted in South Australia and Western Australia.

The latest changes, announced by Treasurer Daniel Mookhey and Minister for Planning and Public Spaces Paul Scully, are designed to improve access to finance for projects that have planning approval but are struggling to secure funding.

Among the key changes is an expansion of support for community housing providers. The program will now support up to 100 per cent affordable housing projects valued at up to $30 million when delivered by not-for-profit providers, while support for larger affordable housing developments will increase for projects worth up to $80 million.

The government says the changes will help accelerate the delivery of housing for low-income workers, older people, people living with disability, and those at risk of homelessness, while reducing reliance on direct grants or subsidised loans to bridge funding gaps.

The eligibility criteria for smaller residential developments have also been broadened. The previous $5 million minimum project value threshold has been removed and replaced with a requirement that projects deliver at least four homes.

Support has also increased for projects delivering fewer than 20 homes, with the guarantee now able to cover up to 75 per cent of dwellings in a development, capped at $30 million per project.

The changes are expected to particularly benefit smaller-scale and regional developments, which often face greater challenges meeting pre-sale requirements imposed by lenders.

Treasurer Daniel Mookhey said the scheme demonstrates how government can use its balance sheet to stimulate housing supply without relying solely on taxpayer-funded grants.

"The Pre-sale Finance Guarantee shows how this Government is using its balance sheet to reduce risk and unlock private investment, enabling new homes to move from design to construction faster," Mookhey said.

"This landmark reform allows us to deliver homes for working families at a lower cost to taxpayers, while also maintaining strong financial discipline."

Planning Minister Paul Scully said the program had already proven effective in bringing stalled projects to market.

"The Pre-sale Finance Guarantee has already proven it can unlock stalled projects and accelerate housing delivery by giving lenders the confidence they need to back good developments," Scully said.

"These changes will allow more affordable housing and smaller developments to access support so more homes can be built faster where communities need them most."

Housing Minister Rose Jackson said the expansion would help community housing providers overcome financing barriers that often delay projects.

"We know community housing providers are ready to build more homes, too often they're held back by barriers to finance," Jackson said.

"Expanding the Pre-sale Finance Guarantee helps remove those barriers so more affordable homes can get off the ground sooner."

The announcement was welcomed by the Property Council of Australia, which has long advocated for measures aimed at improving project feasibility and access to finance.

Property Council NSW Executive Director Katie Stevenson described the expansion as a practical intervention that addresses one of the most immediate constraints on housing delivery.

"This is exactly the kind of practical intervention we need right now, focused on getting projects out of the ground, not just approved," Stevenson said.

"It builds on a model the Property Council has worked closely with government to develop following calls for such a scheme ahead of last year's NSW Budget, so it's great to see it being expanded."

Stevenson said the reforms would help unlock projects that are ready to proceed but have been delayed by financing challenges. However, she noted that broader feasibility issues remain a significant barrier to increasing housing supply.

"The biggest challenge in NSW housing today is delivery. Too many projects have planning approval but are simply not financially viable to proceed under current settings," she said.

Speaking at the Property Council's NSW Housing Summit, Housing Minister Rose Jackson acknowledged that feasibility and financing pressures continue to constrain housing delivery, while reaffirming the government's commitment to work with industry on solutions.

Stevenson said the government's recognition of those challenges was encouraging ahead of next week's state budget.

"It's positive to see the government clearly recognising that feasibility pressures are now a binding constraint on supply," she said.

"With the Budget just days away, the focus must be on backing delivery, making sure projects stack up, finance can flow, and more homes can move from approval to construction."

The expanded Pre-sale Finance Guarantee forms part of the NSW Government's broader housing agenda, which also includes planning reforms, the NSW Housing Pattern Book, and a series of rezonings intended to increase housing capacity across the state.

NSW expands Pre-sale Finance Guarantee to unlock more affordable and regional housing

Design-led developer-builder Lowe Living has unveiled its latest residential development, Jardin House, marking its first foray into Melbourne's blue-chip City of Boroondara.

Located a short walk from Camberwell Junction, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/jardin-house-by-lowe-living-camberwell-335-camberwell-road-camberwell-vic-3124">Jardin House</a> has been designed to appeal to affluent local downsizers and established families seeking a low-maintenance alternative to the large homes that have long defined Camberwell and surrounding suburbs.

The project will comprise a collection of two and three-bedroom apartments ranging from 92 sqm to 280 sqm, alongside a limited number of penthouse residences featuring rooftop terraces spanning more than 100 sqm, with optional private pools.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146717 project_image_fid=372212]

Lowe Living Co-Founder and Managing Director Tim Lowe said Camberwell represented a natural next step for the developer as it expands into some of Melbourne's most tightly held residential markets.

"Jardin House is an important project for our team as it marks the next evolution of our portfolio into different well-established blue-chip pockets of Melbourne," Lowe said.

"Camberwell, with its incredible walkability, family-led neighbourhood feel and superb access to education and transport, makes it a natural choice for us."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146717 project_image_fid=372227]

Designed by Tristan Wong Architects, with interiors by Hecker Guthrie and landscaping by Acre, the development takes inspiration from the Art Deco architecture that remains a defining feature of many of Camberwell's established streets.

A curved facade, arched openings, textured brickwork and sculpted forms reference the suburb's architectural heritage, while extensive landscaping softens the building's presence and creates a strong connection to the surrounding tree-lined streetscape.

The project will be set behind a secure gated entrance, with residents arriving through landscaped gardens designed to create a transition between the public realm and private residences.

Inside, the residences feature natural stone and timber finishes, full-height glazing, Miele appliances and generous open-plan living areas designed for long-term owner occupation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146717 project_image_fid=372225]

While the apartments themselves have been designed to attract discerning owner-occupiers, it is the amenity offering that sets Jardin House apart from many other boutique projects currently launching across Melbourne.

The centrepiece is a 350 sqm private bathhouse curated in partnership with Aurora Spa &amp; Bathhouse founder Lyndall Mitchell.

The wellness precinct includes mineral pools, hydrotherapy experiences, a Himalayan salt room, sauna, steam room, cold plunge pools and dedicated relaxation spaces, creating what Lowe Living describes as a private wellness retreat exclusively for residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146717 project_image_fid=372222]

The collaboration follows Lowe Living's recent partnership with Aurora at Maison Savoy in Brighton, although Jardin House is the first project to incorporate both indoor and outdoor wellness experiences.

Emma Lowe, Co-Founder and Managing Director of Lowe Living, said wellness was becoming an increasingly important consideration for apartment buyers.

"Collaborating with Lyndall Mitchell from Aurora Spa &amp; Bathhouse for a second time is an intentional nod to creating residences that are more than just homes, but a way to enrich the lives of our residents through wellness and longevity," Lowe said.

The amenity offering is complemented by a Technogym fitness studio, residents' lounge, private dining spaces and concierge services.

The launch comes as developers increasingly target Melbourne's established eastern suburbs, where rising land values, ageing housing stock and growing downsizer demand are creating opportunities for boutique apartment projects.

Lowe said the company expects significant generational wealth transfer across suburbs such as Camberwell in coming years, creating further demand for luxury apartment living.

"Camberwell is a blue-chip suburb where homes regularly transact for multiple millions of dollars," he said.

"The generational change of wealth in these locations expected in the coming years is significant, so we see an opportunity to create exclusive residences that appeal to older families and downsizers in order to meet this demand."

Apartments at Jardin house start from $1,195,000. The project forms part of Lowe Living's near-$1 billion portfolio of new developments across Melbourne.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=146717]

Lowe Living launches Jardin House in Camberwell

As <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/north-sydney-nsw-2060">North Sydney</a> continues its transition from a commercial centre into a more layered residential and lifestyle precinct, a new generation of apartment developments is reshaping expectations around scale, amenity, and long-term liveability.

Improved transport connections through the Victoria Cross Metro, continued investment in dining and public spaces, and a constrained supply of new luxury apartments have sharpened demand for homes that combine proximity to the CBD with the privacy and outlook traditionally associated with harbourside houses.

At 177 Walker Street, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aland">ALAND</a>’s new apartment development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-walden-north-sydney-177-walker-street-north-sydney-nsw-2060">The Walden</a> enters the market with a distinctly residential approach to high-rise living. The 30-level tower will deliver 161 residences, ranging from one-bedroom apartments through to sub-penthouses and a full-floor penthouse, all oriented to capture uninterrupted views across Sydney Harbour, the Opera House, and out toward the Pacific Ocean.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6395]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, the project takes advantage of the site’s natural topography and elevated position above the harbour. Rather than relying on density alone, the architecture focuses on outlook, orientation, and spatial flow, with every apartment occupying a corner position to maximise natural light and cross ventilation.

Rothelowman says the site itself shaped much of the architectural response.

“The site has a long history in terms of its inevitable transformation and when we came in, we took inspiration from the idea of reestablishing a sense of the site’s natural terrain and fall. Our scheme aims to integrate with the terrain and the landscape, using the undulating site to slowly reveal glimpses and views of the harbour. The rotation of the tower off grid means every apartment has a view and is naturally cross ventilated. The building's colour palette is quintessentially Sydney, with bronze and sandstone and a luminescent green colour in the glass, making it very earthy and grounded in its location.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6399]

Inside the residences, the emphasis moves toward larger-format living typically associated with standalone homes. Kitchens sit at the centre of the apartments, connecting directly to open-plan dining and living areas before extending outward into expansive winter gardens and balconies. Calacatta marble, bespoke joinery, integrated appliances, and custom metal detailing are used throughout, while three distinct interior palettes, Terrace, Opera, and Harbour, allow buyers to personalise the spaces without compromising the architectural consistency of the project.

The larger residences place particular attention on separation between entertaining and private zones. In many apartments, master suites occupy the outer corners of the floorplates, allowing bedrooms to benefit from floor-to-ceiling glazing and harbour outlooks independent of the living spaces. Dressing rooms and ensuites continue the material palette through fluted detailing, freestanding baths, and layered stone finishes.

Rothelowman says the design intent centred on creating homes that feel enduring rather than transient.

“Our philosophy is all about the way people live in these spaces, and we wanted to create homes that reflect the quality of life in this unique Sydney location. The apartments showcase expansive living spaces that are generous, sophisticated, and bold, with the ability to connect with views throughout each apartment.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=353235]

A separate four-storey amenity building known as The Pavilion expands the residential offering beyond the apartments themselves. Positioned alongside the tower, the building consolidates wellness, recreation, and social spaces into a dedicated resident retreat. Facilities include a 20-metre rooftop pool and sundeck, sauna, spa, ice bath, wellness studio, gymnasium, concierge service, wine cellar, residents’ lounge, private dining spaces, and dedicated co-working areas with meeting rooms and boardroom facilities.

The amenity mix reflects the buyer profile emerging in North Sydney, where owner-occupiers and downsizers are increasingly prioritising convenience, apartment scale, and long-term usability over purely investment-driven decisions.

The Walden also represents a significant milestone for ALAND, marking the company’s first major move into Sydney’s inner-city luxury apartment market after more than two decades delivering large-scale residential communities across Greater Sydney. Founder Andrew Hrsto says the Walker Street site stood apart because of both its positioning and its rarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134323 project_image_fid=6390]

“As a company, we had been searching for a site in one of Sydney’s blue-chip locations, spanning the Eastern Suburbs, the Sydney CBD and the North Shore, and when we had the opportunity to purchase this site, we immediately recognised that it could be something iconic.”

At launch, The Walden recorded more than $103 million in sales, with buyers drawn to the project’s harbour positioning, apartment scale, and proximity to the Metro, which now connects North Sydney to Barangaroo in three minutes and Martin Place in five.

ALAND has commenced construction, and is expecting a completion date in 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134323]

The Walden pairs house-scale living with North Sydney connectivity

Simon Pressley

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Why have South East Queensland (SEQ) property markets been attracting such an increasing amount of positive press over the last year or so?
Every Tom, Dick and Harry seems to have an opinion, however few people can actually articulate any meaningful comment on what is likely to drive SEQ markets.
About a year ago, a couple people with high profiles made a comment along the lines of ‘Sydney and Melbourne markets have already moved so Brisbane must be next’. Such gibberish implies that markets perform like well-behaved children who take it in turns playing with their toys.
Other headline chasers try to sound intelligent by quoting generic stats such as changes in median property values, auction clearance rates, or people attending open homes and want to pass it off as ‘quality research’. Yawn!
People, especially investor, follow like sheep. Media momentum builds and, suddenly, a growing percentage of property investors are thinking ‘all roads point to Brisbane, Logan, Ipswich, or Deception Bay’.
Comforted by the fact that everyone appears to be saying the same thing, investors all around country have felt that they’re on a winner and have set about finding an expert with local knowledge to help them secure their own piece of south-east Queensland ‘gold bullion’.
The Propertyology team certainly isn’t going to reject the increased level of new business enquiry from this herd mentality. And, while we do think that parts of south-east Queensland have a healthy outlook, investors are often shocked when we remark that we feel that we can make their investment dollar work harder in locations outside of SEQ - interstate and other parts of Queensland. Be the shepherd, not a sheep!
Much of the rhetoric which gets reported on property markets relates to matters affecting housing demand. I recently conducted a keynote presentation at the Australian Property Institute Conference and discussed why housing supply and sentiment play an equally important role in fluctuations of property prices.
Since the turn of the century, equilibrium was maintained between Queensland dwelling construction levels (supply) and demand (population growth).
<img src="/images/2014/12/15/pressey%20dec%2015%20one.jpg" alt="">
<table style="width: 460px;" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Population Growth
</td>
<td valign="top" width="141">
2003-2013
(10yrs)
</td>
<td valign="top" width="119">
2008-2013
(Post-GFC)
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Queensland
</td>
<td valign="top" width="141">
2.4%
</td>
<td valign="top" width="119">
2.1%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="160">
Australia
</td>
<td valign="top" width="141">
1.7%
</td>
<td valign="top" width="119">
1.8%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Whilst Queensland’s population growth rate is still above the national average, interstate migration is not what it used to be and growth rates have eased.
With the mining construction boom winding back, governments are looking at alternative measures to stimulate the economy. Incentives have been offered for new property purchases, more land has been released, and zoning changed. Australia is now in the midst of a construction boom.
Several locations will soon have considerably more housing supply than demand requires, followed by underperforming price growth and rental returns. The battle between ‘supply’ and ‘demand’ is on. Most sheep will end up in the wrong paddock!
Simon Pressley is managing director of <a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/" target="_blank">Propertyology</a>, a full-time property market analyst, accredited property investment adviser, and Australia’s (REIA) Buyer’s Agent of the Year (2012+2013+2014).
</body></html>

spressley-sBoeMhannA

Does South East Queensland really deserve all the attention?

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GUEST OBSERVATION
If there is one thing that I see on a daily basis that I get frustrated with it is that decision-making is a skill which few people have learned to do very well. And this, not one's salary or profession, is the primary reason why few people achieve anywhere near as much as they are truly capable of.
When taking on important projects, a lot of people's focus is too heavily weighted on how they can complete it at the lowest cost rather than focus on the outcome that they hope to achieve.
Good decisions are made with a clear mind and with a focus on 'why' you are doing it in the first place – the long-term objective as opposed to the current task. Tapping in to the best resources you can find, including input from someone whose core business is conducive to your longer-term objective, enhances decision-making quality. Regularity of good decisions is the cornerstone to success.
Getting something done is an accomplishment. Getting something done well is an achievement! Many people can lay claim to the accomplishment of buying a property. Fewer people have truly astute investment decisions on their list of achievements.
Those whose default behaviour is to save money ahead of doing something as well as they can are destined to compromise outcomes. We've all heard that saying "you get what you pay for". The first question that people ask when making enquiries about goods or services is "what does it cost?” when it should be “how can you assist me to achieve my objective?”
The client who appoints the accountant because he/she is the cheapest will never know that there were more creative strategies which would have saved them a lot of money.
I find it amusing when people chose to take that DIY option instead of paying a specialist.
Outsourcing to specialists creates more time to do more of the things that you are truly good at, enables you to make more money, and enhances the quality of your accomplishments.
The person who uses a DIY diagnosis for that constant sneeze and keeps going back-and-forth to the chemist, might have been able to overcome it very quickly from a trip to an allergy specialist – skill comes at a cost but the net result is usually worth it. A majority of property investors are like that DIY patient who never consults a true specialist!
There are only 24 hours in the day; it's what we do with them that counts! We can all make more money if we really want to but no one can make more time. No one!
If we want to achieve the very best that we are capable of for something that is important enough to do, then I suggest that's where the focus should be most, not on the easy option or the cost.
Instead of focusing on tasks associated with buying an investment property, focus on the primary objective of increasing your potential to make the most money possible. Are you a ‘property buyer’ or a ‘property investor’?
Article continues on the next page. Please click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Seven common examples of poor decision-making made by property investors:
<ol>
<li>
Property selection Tax advantages and emotions dominate property selection decisions to the detriment of capital growth potential over the longer term. Hardly a day would go by without me hearing someone tell me that they want to buy a brand new property because of the extra tax incentives; or an attractive looking property to get a better tenant. A structurally sound established property, in a strategically chosen location, at a significantly lower entry-price has much more upside capital growth potential, whether it looks dated or beautiful. 
</li>
<li>
Building and pest inspections Why are some buyers so quick to terminate a purchase contract after an inspector discovers defects? The inspector’s job is not to comment on what they like; he / or she is only going to comment on the 1-2% of the property that might benefit from some best-practice attention. The long-term primary objective is to invest in a property in the right city, the right street, the most suitable dwelling style, and priced right. If you’ve already found that property and it happens to have several defects why would you be so keen to walk away? Good decision-making would be to explore how significant the defects are, the likely cost to fix them, and whether a deal could be done with the owner. What most see as risks, could actually be opportunities.  
</li>
<li>
House v apartment I wish I had a dollar for every time someone told me that they “don’t want to invest in an apartment because they don’t want to pay body corporate fees” or “land appreciates but buildings depreciate”. Narrow-minded statements such as these are living proof that too often people get distracted by small things which they don’t want at the expense of the real objective, the end result that they hope to achieve. The dwelling types within my own property portfolio have been strategically-chosen as a result of demographic and supply-demand research conducted within each city.  
</li>
<li>
Applying for an investment home loan The objective should be to get the most suitable type of loan, which compliments a professionally designed overall debt structure, has a strategy to deal with good debt and bad debt, and avoids cross-collateralising. In spite of this, the first question people usually ask is “what’s your interest rate?” A lot of borrowers are also creatures of habit who go back to the same bank because ‘it’s easier’. Banks are good at explaining features and benefits however their strategy skills generally leave a lot to be desired.  
</li>
<li>
Property management Property managers play an important role in helping investors to get the best out of their profit and loss statement. Why is it the first question investors ask is “what do you charge?” This is a classic example of how so many people lose sight of the primary objective - property management fees are only one line entry in the P&amp;L. When I interview property managers I enquire about office systems, staff turnover and ratios of properties to property managers. I ask questions about their processes to minimise vacancy periods and arrears, how they handle maintenance requests and I review samples of their rental advertisements. As with a majority of business decisions, it’s not so much as what a property manager charges, but what they do (or don’t do) for it.  
</li>
<li>
Organising insurance The point of having insurances is to protect ourselves from loss in the event of an unforeseen event. The focus should therefore be on what needs protecting, how much protection we need, and what the policy wording says that the insurer will / will not do in certain situations. When organising insurance, an overwhelming majority of people do little more than ring around and ask price-related questions (“what’s your premium, what’s your excess?”). How would you feel if a claim for flood or malicious damage was denied, or the payout following a major fire was insufficient to rebuild the entire house? If the insurer doesn’t come to the party at time of claim all of those insurance premiums that you’ve paid over the years are little more than a donation.  
</li>
<li>
Rental renewals Refusing to be flexible with the amount of rent charged without even contemplating current market forces is another example of poor decision-making which is all too common amongst property investors. What is the sense in insisting on a particular rental figure at the expense of a longer vacancy period? It is irrelevant how much rent you ‘want’, or how you justify it, unless the market is prepared to pay it. Astute property investors make good decisions through understanding that there are generally three factors which determine whether or not a property is rented: price, presentation, and promotion. Every market’s vacancy rates will fluctuate up and down from time to time and sometimes the best decision is to advertise the property for 5% less than your competition.  80% of something will always be more than 100% of nothing!
</li>
</ol>
Simon Pressley is managing director of <a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/" target="_blank">Propertyology</a>, a full-time property market analyst, accredited property investment adviser, and Australia’s (REIA) Buyer’s Agent of the Year (2012+2013+2014)
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Seven common examples of poor property investment decisions

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Negative gearing is a form of financial leverage where the gross income generated by an investment is less than the cost of owning and managing the investment, including interest charged on the borrowings.The negative cash flow is then offset against personal incomes. 
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Doesn’t negative gearing just help the rich get richer?
According to 2011-12 ATO statistics, there were 12,736,030 individual taxpayers in Australia and 1,897,668 (14.9%) of them owned one or more investment properties. 73% of property investors own one property and only 4% of investors own four or more properties. For a property to be negative geared there must be a significant debt against it (they don’t own it outright).
In other words, an overwhelming majority of investors are ordinary mums and dads; they are attempting to fund their own retirement, as opposed to being a burden on Australia’s taxation system via government-funded pension.
Doesn’t negative gearing reduce the amount of revenue available to governments each year?
A report produced by REIA in August 2014, mentioned that a total of $7,860 million in losses were claimed by Australian property investors in 2011-12. The ATO also charged extra taxes on the $5,939 million worth of investment property profits.
Should changes ever be made to negative gearing and results in fewer property transactions each year, governments would stand to lose a lot more tax revenue from stamp duties, infrastructure charges, land tax, construction industry payroll taxes, and more. The existing $71 billion (and growing) spent each year on tax-payer funded pensions and allowances will increase significantly. 
What impact would the removal of negative gearing have on Australia’s housing supply?
According to 2011 Census data, Australia has 9,117,003 residential properties and we are adding approximately 160,000 more each year. Negative gearing is a tax-policy linked to property – other policies include stamp duty, first home buyer incentives, tax rebates and incentives to purchase new property, land tax, and capital gains tax.
Tightening of any of these policies will directly influence consumer behaviour and become a disincentive to buying and holding property. As we’ve seen already with ‘new home building grants’, the introduction and removal of tax policies directly affects the construction industry (Australia’s biggest industry by direct and indirect jobs).
What about Australia’s social housing problem?
75% of residential properties in Australia are occupied by the owner. Of the remaining 25% that are rented only 5% are provided by governments. Governments can’t afford to fund social housing (some governments have actually been selling off parcels of properties in order to raise money for other reasons).
The National Rental Affordability Scheme (NRAS) is government admission of our social housing shortfall which governments can’t fund so they developed a policy designed to encourage others to do it for them. Removal of negative gearing would be a gross contradiction to this.
How might the removal of negative gearing affect Australia’s welfare system?
Australia’s financial literacy crisis is in our DNA - only 4% of people are financially independent by age 65. The federal government have said that we can't support our ageing population with our unsustainable reliance on tax-payer pensions. They have touted the possibility of the superannuation age increasing to 70. Stripping back incentives which encourage investment would only compound this country's problem.
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Does negative gearing force property prices up and make it harder for first home buyers to get in to the market?
Property markets are affected by dozens of factors. The factors which affect property values the most are related to the general economy, employment, and credit policies, not tax policies). When property markets perform strongly, like they have in Sydney in 2013-14, it is not uncommon for segments of the community to blame investors for driving values up and making bit harder for others to get in.
Negative gearing has been in place for generations and it is no more responsible for Sydney’s property price growth in 2013-14 than it was for its flat-line performance from 2001 to 2008.
Doesn’t negative gearing make rents more expensive?
In July 1985, in response to claims that negative gearing was the primary cause of property rents rising uncontrollably, the Hawke government quarantined negative gearing. During the two years that the quarantine was in place, ABS figures show rents rose by an average of 22%. The policy was reversed in 1987 and rents still rose by 21% over the next two years. A similar trend occurred with property values. As mentioned previously, tax policies have a smaller impact on property markets (values and rents) than most people think.
What other potential impacts could occur if negative gearing was tinkered with?
Propertyology often describes property investment as a business – the business of providing accommodation – and the investor’s role is akin to that of a company director (to make responsible decisions which are in the best interest of your balance sheet and profit and loss statement).
Negative gearing involves claiming interest expenses from borrowings plus other costs associated with maintaining an asset in much the same way that more traditional businesses do. Similarly, a share investor will claim the interest expense from their margin loan. Time will tell whether property investors will be singled out or not.
A final word...
Rumours of negative gearing getting scrapped arise almost every year – either in the lead up to a federal budget or whenever there is a major review of Australia’s taxation policies. It is the responsibility of governments to periodically review everything; nothing lasts forever. The reality however is that negative gearing has existed in Australia for a few generations.
In the event that negative gearing was ever scrapped, there might be some short-term referred pain but the real estate body will eventually realign itself (once the dust settles, it will be business as usual again for most property investors).  The potential implications to scrapping negative gearing will be spread a lot further than property investor’s tax returns. Any government who is bold enough to make a change faces consequences far greater than the revolt of 1.9 million people at the election box. For these reasons, it is my view that negative gearing will survive further generations.
Simon Pressley is managing director of <a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/" target="_blank">Propertyology</a>, a full-time property market analyst, accredited property investment adviser, and Australia’s (REIA) Buyer’s Agent of the Year (2012+2013+2014)
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Scrapping negative gearing would have consequences far beyond an investor's tax return

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Rising world demand for gas, iron ore, and coal have already made a mark on several property markets across Australia over the last four to five years. Propertyology’s continuous investment in property economics has us questioning whether another commodity, nickel, might soon create other property investment opportunities.
While not as well known as other metals, nickel plays an important role in modern life. When mixed with other metals it helps create strong alloys that won't rust, can withstand high and low temperatures, and can be easily shaped into anything from thin wires to flat sheets.
One such use of nickel is adding it to iron to make stainless steel. Just ponder: with the existing western world and the fast rising Asian middle class, how much extra demand will there be for cooking utensils and kitchen equipment, surgical instruments, marine equipment, the construction industry, crank-shafts and axles in cars, washing machines, aircraft engines? What opportunities will this create for businesses with links to nickel? Where might all the new jobs be created?
Ponder this also: rising petrol prices, a push for cleaner energy and more advanced technology is expected to result in a major ramp up in production of battery-powered cars. It doesn’t require rocket science to figure out that a similar increase in production of portable devices such as smart phones and laptops is also expected to boom. Rechargeable batteries for mobile phones, cars, clocks, kid’s toys, and remote controls require nickel.
Get the picture? Now ponder this...
Australia is currently the world’s fourth largest producer (11.4%) of nickel, behind Russia, Indonesia and Philippines. If world demand for nickel intensifies as forecast, it might become even more prevalent that Australia is ranked number one in the world for nickel resources with 24.4% of known reserves.
Stock market analysts, Credit Suisse, recently placed a couple of Australian-based nickel mining companies on their ‘watch list’. Western Australia (refer Kalgoorlie) has the lion’s share of nickel resources. Other less significant resources are located in the central west of New South Wales, far northern tip of Tasmania, south of Gladstone and near Townsville. Property investors might consider placing a couple of these locations on their watch list, too.
<img src="/images/2014/08/12/nikel-deposits-aug-12-one.jpg" alt="">
Source: Geoscience Australia, '<a href="/news">Australia's Identified Mineral Resources 2013</a>'.
Buying an investment property in a remote location because of the potential for a single mine is something that Propertyology would consider to be very speculative. However, when we combine economic sustainability with some future upside we often get a really astute investment decision which stands out from the rest of the pack.
Sometimes the best investment results over the longer-term come from buying in the towns nearby to the mines, although an understanding of the higher volatility from commodity price fluctuations is important. In different situations the wisest investment might be in the large city (capital or regional) which will supply most of the goods and services to the smaller towns.
Perth, for example, has one of only two existing major nickel refineries in Australia. The BHP-owned Nickel West refinery at <a href="/news">Kwinana</a> processes most of Western Australia’s nickel and you’d have to think that there is considerable potential to increase upon its current 2,000 employees.
QCG Resources has just acquired the Avebury nickel mine in Tasmania for $40 million. The mine closed in 2009 due to floundering nickel prices. Due to the aforementioned rising demand for nickel, the commodity price has increased by a significant 34% since Christmas and QCG clearly see an encouraging outlook for nickel.
Clive Palmer will be as excited as anyone about the forecast demand for nickel. He may be controversial, however he didn’t become a billionaire by chance. Palmer owns the Queensland Nickel Refinery in <a href="/news">Townsville</a>. Queensland Nickel imports the commodity from mines in the Pacific, processes it, and then exports it out as a refined product. Whilst nothing has materialised as yet, Palmer has proposed a $1 billion upgrade of the refinery and supporting infrastructure. If that goes ahead there will be significantly more than the existing 1,000 people employed at the Townsville refinery. Townsville already has a lot to offer for property investors.
Palmer is also the major shareholder of Gladstone Pacific Nickel Limited (GPNL) which has proposed the establishment of a $3.5 billion nickel and cobalt refinery adjacent to the existing deepwater Port of Gladstone. GPNL already owns a nickel mine at <a href="/news">Marlborough</a>, near Gladstone. In spite of Gladstone’s current property market downturn, population growth forecasts are very strong and the surplus property stock will be soaked up before too long in Australia’s industrial powerhouse.
The future outlook may well be one of those ‘upside’ factors for Gladstone and Townsville – both are very strong regional cities with incredibly strong long-term property investment fundamentals. 
<img src="/images/2014/08/11/press-aug-11-one.jpg" alt="">
Simon Pressley is managing director of <a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/" target="_blank">Propertyology</a>, a full-time property market analyst, accredited property investment adviser, and Australia’s (REIA) Buyer’s Agent of the Year (2012+2013+2014).
Picture courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.
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Nickel could be behind the next mining boom: Here are the areas set to benefit

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Understanding the chain which leads to future property supply is an important consideration before deciding to invest in to a market.
Forecasting future property supply is arguably the single most difficult task for property analysts.
Analytically-minded property investors enjoy statistics. While statistics do play an important role for property analysts, some statistics have greater relevance than others. And then there's the skill in being able to interpret statistics. Building approval statistics play an important role in understanding property markets.
Building approvals are a lead indicator for future property supply. ‘Approved’ does not mean ‘built’. The property supply chain is such that lot owners must (first) apply to the local government authority and have the application approved, (then) secure the necessary funding, and (finally) begin construction. The time lag from building approval through to completion of construction often ranges from six months to two years.
Building approval statistics are relevant for property investors because they have a direct impact on that relationship between demand and supply.
<img src="/images/2014/07/16/building%20approvals.jpg" alt=""> 
Generally speaking, when there are a large number of buyers (demand) at a time when the levels of supply are low, increased competition is created; price growth then occurs. Conversely, when supply is high buyers have more choice and prices are discounted.
A lot of property investors don't understand the lag affect that building approvals have on property values. An investor might purchase in to a market a buoyant market and neglect to study the supply chain. Supply might be tight at the time of purchase however there might also be a large volume of new properties literally 'on the drawing board' and slated for construction completion in the near future. A much softer market might be just around the corner.
Take a look at Western Australia's building approval graph (remembering that 75% of WA's population is based in Perth). The volume of building approvals eased during 2010 and 2011. The lag affect of the declining number of new properties coming on to the market was one significant reason why Perth experienced above-average price growth in 2012 and 2013.
A significant rise in building approvals in Perth during 2013 means that a lot more supply is hitting the market this year.
Property developers will always find a way to build (their livelihood demands on it). A healthy construction industry generally means a healthy economy however there will always be a fine line to building too much. And statistics will only enable us to look so far in to the future.
Forecasting future property supply is arguably the single most difficult task for property analysts.
Simon Pressley is managing director of <a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/" target="_blank">Propertyology</a>, a full-time property market analyst, accredited property investment adviser, and Australia’s (REIA) Buyer’s Agent of the Year (2012+2013+2014).
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The property supply chain: The effect of building approvals on property values

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GUEST OBSERVATION
I'm so angry!
It is the property market equivalent of Storm Financial just waiting to implode and no one seems prepared to do a damn thing about it. I am one of a handful of people who have been proactive in lobbying for new legislation to protect property investors from vested interest groups for some years. Yet we keep seeing deals being done between property developers and white-collar service providers.
Currently, there is no law in this country which prevents people such as mortgage brokers, accountants, and financial planners from profiting out of persuading consumers to purchase a property from a product list, even though they have no qualifications or skills whatsoever in this field.
Just this week, a home loan group announced that they will offer “independently graded and valued” property.
“Independently graded” means “product which one gets a good kick-back through the strategic use of smoke and mirrors”.
They said that their scheme would reassure customers that the properties hadn’t been overpriced to account for massively inflated sales commissions. They were referring to some groups, including mortgage brokers, who are reportedly receiving up to 8% of a property sale price as a rebate from developer’s marketing arms.
How wonderfully comforting that is. Not!
The price of an asset being supported by a valuation report does not determine whether or not the asset has strong investment fundamentals and a healthy outlook. It disgusts me when people try to portray a white-knight status with a north-pointing moral compass when the truth of the matter is that greed and opportunity are the real behaviour drivers.
They said that they're providing a range of investments that can be confidently offered to their clients... but what's to stop them from offering clients opportunities to buy shares in the next ABC Learning or HIH Insurance?
The reality is that, unless studying property markets is your core business, I’d suggest that you’d know as much about what constitutes a good investment property as my mechanic would about stock markets. But, at least my accountant is giving stock tips and getting a clip on the ticket from the ASX.
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The federal and state governments are whom I’m most angry with over this disgraceful fiasco.
Amongst other things, I’ve personally met separately with senior officials of the federal government’s financial services ‘police’ (aka ASIC) and the Queensland state government’s Attorney General’s Office. Responses that I have received range from “we can’t intervene because property isn’t considered to be a financial instrument”, to “we must be careful not to deprive people of earning a living”, and “we are looking in to it”.
It is not uncommon for my office to receive approaches from marketing companies who represent property developers and offer us in the vicinity of $50,000 per property. They are dud investments. These companies offer to supply us with all the glossy brochures, website portals, and all of the jazz words and crappy stats which they purport to be ‘research’. Regardless of where the property is located, who the developer is, or whatever spin they use, the common denominator is always brand new property. Always!
How else can those big fat rebates payable to brokers, accountants, and financial planners get funded?
No matter what spin they choose to use they are selling property. Let’s face it, in many cases it wouldn’t be too hard for them to persuade someone to buy one of the properties on their product list because the relationship and a sense of trust is already established as a result of their core business as a specialist in home loans, tax, or managed funds. Is it just me, or can anyone else see a problem with these people selling property?
For over a century there has been a recognised profession for selling property in Australia – they are called real estate agents. The law requires them to pass exams, acquire a license, hold professional indemnity insurance, complete ongoing training, understand and respect property legislation. They also work for and are paid by the property owner, and most do a good job for their client. But, how is it possible that others can exploit a pre-existing relationship from another profession and sell property with nothing more than a nod and a wink?
If they want to sell real estate, go for it. Get the license and put the sign out the front. But present yourself for what you are – someone selling property – not a property guru who very conveniently happens to have a list the best investment properties out of the 9.3 million in Australia.
An accountant is no more qualified to determine whether property ‘x’ is a good investment than a real estate agent is qualified to give tax advice. Mortgage brokers and financial planners are not property investment advisors. And, a glossy brochure containing a few graphs, some generic statistics from Census, and key words such as ‘urban renewal’ or ‘inner city’ does not constitute comprehensive market research.
It is unrealistic to expect that we will ever be rid of the white-shoe-brigade property spruiker. But, in my opinion, the people whose core business is another profession while they line their pockets pretending to be property gurus are worse than the spruikers. Their greed-driven behaviour is no better than the used car salesman who sells you a lemon that he knows has a broken chassis. At best, these people are ‘reckless distributors’ of properties with low-grade investment potential.
No matter what other services they have previously obtained from a firm, property investors would be wise to question the motives of their so-called ‘trusted advisor’. Property investors would do well to question why not one of the other 9.3 million properties in this country.
Property investors would do well to consider how a brand new property could have the best potential for capital growth when 40% of the price is made up of the various taxes associated with developing a new property.
Simon Pressley is managing director of <a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/" target="_blank">Propertyology</a>, a full-time property market analyst, accredited property investment adviser, and Australia’s (REIA) Buyer’s Agent of the Year (2012+2013+2014).
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Think property spruikers are bad? How about these guys

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The performance of Sydney’s property market over the past 12-18 months is as concerning as it is spectacular.
Double-digit price growth isn’t consistent with Sydney’s property market fundamentals. While I’ll stop short of predicting that a downturn is on the horizon, the drivers of Sydney’s market are as fragile as a house of cards. With over 9.3 million properties to choose from in this country, one begs the question, “Why Sydney?”
First, The Fundamentals
Contrary to tabloid rhetoric, Australia is not having a property boom. Outside of Sydney, property markets are experiencing a predictable post-GFC recovery phase with normal rates of growth (0 to 6%) over the past 12 months.
The state of New South Wales is home to 7.4 million people (a third of Australia’s total population) and 4.3 million (18.7%) of these are in Sydney
Greater Sydney can be broken in to ‘Metropolitan’ and ‘Western Sydney’. With a population of 2.06 million people (8.9% of Australia), Western Sydney on its own is bigger than the combined populations of South Australia, Tasmania, ACT, and Northern Territory.
 <img src="/images/2014/06/10/pressley%20june%2010%20one.png" alt="">
With a median house price of $802,000 Sydney is the least affordable location in Australia (miles above the capital city average of $580,000).
For the same price that you can buy a Sydney apartment (median value $576,000) you can buy a house in every other location in Australia with the exception of Melbourne.
Sydney’s population growth rate has been below the national average over the past 10 years, and only ahead of economic minnows South Australia and Hobart. Rate of growth is completely different to size.
 <img src="/images/2014/06/10/pressley%20june%2010%20two.jpg" alt="">
New South Wales has a long history of people immigrating away from Sydney to alternative locations
 <img src="/images/2014/06/10/pressley%20june%2010%20three.png" alt="">
Sydney has been Australia's worst performing capital city market since the 2000 Olympic Games (it’s not a typo).
<img src="/images/2014/06/10/pressley%20june%2010%20four.jpg" alt="">
Through 2000 to 2010, the NSW unemployment rate was regularly above the national average. After finding its way back to parity it improved further to fall below the national average this January and currently sits 0.5% below. It is no coincidence that Sydney’s property market has improved with its employment record.
Metropolitan Sydney is Australia’s white-collar capital and unemployment rates are currently up to 50% better than the national average. It’s just a shame that few people can afford to buy a metropolitan home.
Large parts of Western Sydney, on the other hand, have significantly fewer job opportunities. Manufacturing accounts for 16% of jobs (not ideal with a high Australian dollar) while a fifth of all businesses are in the construction industry. Australia’s highest crime rates are in western Sydney
 <img src="/images/2014/06/10/pressley%20june%2010%20five.png" alt="">
To overcome a reported 182,000 job shortfall, tens of thousands of people have to commute from the more affordable western suburbs to work in metro Sydney each day.
Transport infrastructure has not kept pace with population growth. The rail network has not been significantly expanded since the 1930s, yet the region’s population is now five times greater. The heavy reliance on passenger cars results in horrendous traffic congestion, loss of productivity, and high fuel costs. Remember that earlier Interstate Immigration graph?
15 years of babble about Sydney having run out of land and therefore having an under-supplied property market is not totally correct. Metro Sydney’s land shortage has been compensated by higher density construction while sprawl has occurred to the west. Overall, dwelling construction was greater than required until the GFC handbrake was applied. The tightening of supply is another reason for the more recent pressure on Sydney property prices.
 <img src="/images/2014/06/10/pressley%20june%2010%20six.png" alt="">
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The Foreign Investor Phenomena
Structural changes resulting from the revolution known as the ‘Asian Century’ has directly resulted in unprecedented volumes of properties being purchased in Australia by Asian investors.
With Sydney and Melbourne having Australia’s biggest profiles internationally, they have been the centre of attention for the construction industry’s marketing teams.
In a majority of cases, Asian investors are buying brand new properties – only Australian residents are permitted to buy established properties.
According to the latest report from Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB), there were 12,647 applications approved in the 2012-13 financial year. A total of 12,025 of these approvals were for Australian real estate transactions (289 were for mining).
The number of FIRB approvals for Australian (residential) real estate has grown from 3,723 in 1999-10 to 11,668 in 2012-13. I’d be staggered if the numbers aren’t even bigger this year. The tsunami is coming! Victoria (38%) and NSW (30%) account for the lion share.
<img src="/images/2014/06/10/pressley%20june%2010%20seven.jpg" alt="">
The House Of Cards Concern
While I think that Sydney’s employment will follow current trends, its property market will ease (refer lack of affordability and a significant supply of new dwelling stock in the pipeline).
 <img src="/images/2014/06/10/pressley%20june%2010%20eight.png" alt="">
An unhealthily high ratio of investor-owned properties is already occurring with recent ABS data confirming that 53% of NSW home loan approvals (refer Sydney) were for investors. Melbourne is concerning high at 45%, 30% is about normal. Yields will reduce!
In light of the fundamentals outlined, the only thing that can sustain Sydney’s market strength is continued high rates of Asian investment. This is where there are two jokers in the pack which I feel make Sydney’s house-of-cards very fragile.
With the boom being isolated to Sydney and pressure still on the Australian dollar, the Reserve Bank is unlikely to pull the trigger on a few interest rate rises as they would normally do. But, what if the FIRB passed legislation to restrict Asian investment in Australian real estate? Joker number one!
The other possibility lies in China. There are recent reports of China’s residential market declining by 15% over the last 12 months. Chinese banking executives and economists say that a severe housing downturn could cause a considerable increase in non-performing loans at the country’s banks. We know that when times get tough investment properties are often one of the first assets disposed of in order to bring the household budget back in to order. Further instability in China’s market could result in high levels of resale stock in Sydney. Joker number two!
In so far as a medium term outlook, my money is on Sydney performing similar to the last 15 years – below the Australian average.
Simon Pressley is managing director of <a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/" target="_blank">Propertyology</a>, a full-time property market analyst, accredited property investment adviser, and REIA / REIQ Buyer’s Agent of the Year (2012, 2013, 2014).
Photo courtesy of Peter Roberts/Flickr/<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/" target="_blank">Creative Commons</a>.
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Sydney’s property market is a house of cards

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Have we all recovered from this week's news that our homes fell in value by $10,355 last month?
According to RP Data, the typical $545,000 Australian property declined by 1.9% last month. And, it gets worse if you live in Melbourne where homes fell $19,980 (3.6%) during May. In just one month!
But, don't worry; anyone who is keen to make up for their loss in a hurry might buy in Darwin where a typical property grew in value by a whopping $30,800 (5.5%) over the last three months. 
It’s nice to know that yesterday’s RP Data statistics confirmed for us all that Australia is officially having a property boom. The combined value of properties across all capital cities has climbed by an impressive 10.7% over the last 12 months. With the extra $58,315 added to everyone’s balance sheet over the last year perhaps we can now all afford to cut back to a three day working week.
Confused?
Did we lose $10,355 last month, or did we gain $58,315 over the past year? Answer: none of the above!
As they say in the media though: “If it bleeds, it reads”.
According to Monday's RP Data, the 1.9% fall during May is the <a href="/expert-insights/finance/last-months-price-growth-dip-the-first-since-may-2013-so-rba-will-be-content">first monthly fall in values since May 2013 and the biggest fall since December 2008</a>.
On an annualised basis, the typical Australian home declined by 22.8%. Almost a quarter of the value of Australia's 9.3 million residential properties was wiped off the market last month.
Quick, I better sell that farm!
Changes in median values often don’t provide an accurate reflection of actual changes in property values. It’s not like RP Data sends out an army of property valuers each month to conduct formal values on every property in the country.
Median values are based on those properties which sold during a particular period (that’s a very small sample of data within a community). Given that a typical new property is worth more than a typical established property, it makes sense that, if there were a lot of new properties sold in one market over a reporting period that the median value would be higher.
A lot of new properties sold have sold in places like Sydney and Melbourne recently, <a href="/expert-insights/investing/the-shifting-dynamics-of-the-current-buyer-demographic">especially to investors of Asian origin</a>.
Trends in median property value changes are an unreliable measure of how a market is really performing.
As for what is really happening across the country, Sydney’s market appears to be tapering after a 12 month strong run.
The remaining capital cities, including Melbourne, have experienced price growth of between 0% and 6% over the past year.
Broadly speaking, Australia has finally shaken off the post-GFC gitters and entered in to a new (upswing) cycle.
As for the next year or two, PROPERTYOLOGY believes that most capital cities will perform better than last year.
But don't necessarily rely on reading that through future changes in median values.
Simon Pressley is managing director of <a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/" target="_blank">Propertyology</a>, a full-time property market analyst, accredited property investment adviser, and REIA / REIQ Buyer’s Agent of the Year (2012, 2013, 2014).
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Median values fall for the first time in a year! Let's get some perspective

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Supply and demand for Brisbane apartments are on the up. Property investors would do well to consider both the short-term and long-term supply and demand outlook for apartments.
For a few years after the GFC, Brisbane did have an oversupply of property in general. It's one reason why Propertyology elected to do very little investing in Brisbane for some time. Tighter credit policies post-GFC then made it very difficult for developers to acquire project funding which enabled Brisbane's surplus of property stock to be soaked up.
During the middle of last year, Propertyology observed an increase in buyer activity and Brisbane's market recovery got under way. While we don’t believe that Brisbane is the number one location to invest in right now we do like the city's outlook and are investing there again.
Over the last year, several new, multi-storey apartment complexes have settled around Brisbane; inner-city vacancy rates have increased to a more normal level of around 3% as a result.
Yes, there is a significant level of new inner-city apartments in Brisbane's pipeline. In our view, suburbs such as <a href="/news">South Brisbane</a>, <a href="/news">West End</a>, <a href="/news">Fortitude Valley</a>, and <a href="/news">Bowen Hills</a> should be avoided by investors. ‘Property consultants' with vested interests will undoubtedly tell you differently.
Generally speaking, there is a growing trend for increased demand for apartment living across most capital cities and in some regional locations. Over the two year period to March 2014, 43% of new residential dwelling approvals in Australia were for attached dwellings. Yes, almost half. This compares to 30% of total approvals for the two years ending March 2007. Quite an increase!
<img src="/images/2014/05/23/pressley%20may%2023%20one.png" alt="">
New South Wales (refer Sydney) had an even bigger percentage of attached dwelling approvals over the last two years -56% - while the ACT (Canberra) and Northern Territory (Darwin) are even higher at a whopping 63% and 60%, respectively. Victoria (refer Melbourne Docklands) and Brisbane also have high percentages of apartment approvals, 45% and 43% respectively.
The millions of Baby Boomer Australians seeking to exit the workforce over the next decade simply don't have anywhere near enough money squirreled away to retain their current digs and have a healthy income stream. More and more Baby Boomers will be attracted to selling the suburban house, downsizing in to apartment living, and releasing a few hundred thousand dollars to supplement their income.
Market analyst, Michael Matusik, recently said: "Brisbane City has an aging demographic profile.  Increasingly, much of the housing market across the Brisbane City area will be looking to downsize and/or retire.  This will fuel the need for more attached homes; often smaller in size than traditional detached housing.  The catch-cry is “place for space”, meaning that buyers will be looking to live in quality projects, in established urban areas. The Brisbane downsize/retirement market will experience its greatest growth over the next ten years.  Interestingly, the first home buyer segment and even the upgrader market is unlikely to grow as much in size as those downsizing, suggesting that resale supply of baby boomer-first generation homes may exceed demand (first time buyers and those upgrading)."
There are plenty of people who don't want to spend their weekends maintaining gardens. Many Gen Y, for example, see a lot of merit in apartment living. There is a growing number of Gen Y’s who either can't afford the mortgage payments on a suburban house and / or prefer the conveniences of inner-city lifestyles.
While there will be an increase in apartment supply in Brisbane, there will also be increased demand.
Simon Pressley is managing director of <a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/" target="_blank">Propertyology</a>, a full-time property market analyst, accredited property investment adviser, and REIA / REIQ Buyer’s Agent of the Year (2012,2013,2014).
Photo courtesy of Andrew Sutherland/Flickr/<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/" target="_blank">Creative Commons</a>.
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