Not all apartment amenities are immediately visible.

Swimming pools, gyms, rooftop terraces and residents' lounges have long featured on buyers' wishlists, but as the way Australians live has changed, so too have the features that make apartment living more convenient.

Increasingly, buyers are placing value on the practical aspects of day-to-day life. Fast internet, EV charging, secure bike storage, flexible workspaces and parcel management are becoming just as relevant as lifestyle amenities, reflecting changing habits and expectations.

Online shopping has been one of the biggest drivers of that shift.

Australians spent a record $82.6 billion shopping online in 2025, with almost one in every four retail dollars now spent digitally, making parcel deliveries a routine part of everyday life rather than an occasional convenience.

For apartment residents, however, receiving those deliveries isn't always straightforward.

Without someone home to accept a parcel, deliveries can be redirected to a nearby Post Office, left in building foyers or common areas, or require building management to temporarily store packages. As apartment living continues to grow across Australia's cities, parcel management has become an increasingly important consideration for both residents and developers.

Australia Post's Parcel Locker network is one response to that shift.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KPZ9j5FRdsQ?si=Qztc1dNP3ZvEIUhb" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

Rather than relying on home delivery, eligible parcels can be directed to a nominated Parcel Locker, where they're securely stored until collected. Once a parcel arrives, residents receive a notification through the AusPost app or SMS and can retrieve it using a one-time code or QR code at a time that suits them.

The network has expanded to more than 1,500 locations nationwide, with Parcel Lockers positioned at Post Offices, shopping centres, supermarkets, transport hubs and, increasingly, within or alongside residential developments.

That growing presence reflects a broader change in how apartment buildings are being planned.

Developers are increasingly considering the operational side of apartment living alongside traditional lifestyle amenities. Just as secure mailrooms, bicycle storage and EV charging have become more common inclusions, parcel management is emerging as another feature that supports everyday convenience.

It also helps preserve the arrival experience within a building. Carefully designed lobbies and communal spaces can quickly become cluttered when deliveries accumulate, while secure parcel solutions reduce the likelihood of missed deliveries or parcels being left unattended.

For buyers comparing apartments, these everyday details are becoming part of the decision-making process.

Location, floorplans and finishes remain fundamental, but the features that simplify daily life are carrying greater weight than they once did. As online shopping continues to shape consumer behaviour, secure parcel delivery is increasingly becoming another amenity worth looking for.

Joel Robinson

Parcel delivery is joining the apartment amenity checklist

Inca Property Group has lodged a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) for Dawn, a 53-apartment oceanfront development overlooking Mona Vale Beach.

The proposal, at 35-39 Darley Street East, would replace an existing 18-apartment strata building with a new owner-occupier-focused development comprising 53 two and three-bedroom apartments, including nine affordable built-to-rent residences delivered under the State's infill affordable housing scheme.

Positioned on a 2,679 sqm elevated site around 280 metres from Mona Vale Beach, the development has been designed to maximise panoramic ocean views while responding to the site's sloping topography.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/inca-property-group">Inca Property Group</a> Managing Director Josh Thompson said the State Significant pathway provided greater certainty for projects of this scale.

"This State Significant pathway gives the team real certainty to progress <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/dawn-35-39-darley-street-east-mona-vale-nsw-2103">Dawn</a> through to completion," Thompson said.

"It allows us to acquire a one-off site, design it carefully and deliver the right offering for the suburb, assessed by the NSW Government's planning department."

The project is one of the first developments in the area to be assessed under the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing policy, with the site sitting on the edge of the policy's designated inner area.

The proposal includes three basement levels providing 124 car spaces, alongside a range of resident amenities including a swimming pool, gym, sauna, wellness facilities and private plunge pools for selected ground-floor and penthouse apartments.

<img alt="Dawn" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fc1a1daf-0ce4-4f12-9076-b1fa553c7a91" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-21%20at%208.42.11%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4GZ9h.gpNkTljbxyAET8Jfhv51XUamDm" />

Thompson said Dawn had been designed specifically for owner-occupiers and downsizers, a buyer profile that has driven demand across Inca's recent Upper North Shore developments.

"The majority of buyers in our recent North Shore projects have been downsizers, and we are learning exactly what this market is looking for. Beyond the location itself, we have included resort-style amenities to deliver a genuine lifestyle offering," Thompson said.

Located within walking distance of Mona Vale Beach, the town centre, Mona Vale Golf Club and the Royal Motor Yacht Club, Dawn represents Inca's first Northern Beaches project following the sell-out of Tara on Park in Waitara and Ellis Residences, currently under construction in St Ives.

Construction will be undertaken by Inca's in-house construction arm, GOP Constructions.

Dawn is the latest major apartment proposal for Mona Vale, with the suburb emerging as one of the key beneficiaries of the NSW Government's new Low and Mid-Rise Housing policy.

New developer One Living, led by industry veteran Joseph Scuderi, recently secured a site on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, where it is planning around 140 apartments.

IPM is also planning its third project in Mona Vale, significantly increasing the scale of its previous developments with an 82-apartment proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/159-167-darley-street-west-mona-vale-nsw-2103">159-167 Darley Street West</a>, opposite Bayview Golf Course and less than 800 metres from Mona Vale town centre.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/one-living-enters-sydneys-new-apartment-market-with-northern-beaches-site-acquisition">One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-ipm-plans-third-mona-vale-project">First look: IPM plans third Mona Vale project</a>

First look: Inca eyes Mona Vale with State Significant DA for Dawn apartments

Seasoned Victorian apartment developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a> has logged more than $400 million in sales in its luxury apartment project Palmera Residences at Northcliffe on the Gold Coast.&nbsp;

Central Equity Director Karl Kutner said the sales result reflected a combination of location, product quality and delivery certainty with the project already under construction by building powerhouse Multiplex.&nbsp;

"Surpassing $400 million in sales since launch is a significant milestone and an outstanding endorsement of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera Residences</a>,” he said.&nbsp;

"We believe one of the key reasons for this strong result is the confidence purchasers have in knowing the project is under construction with Multiplex. Buyers are increasingly looking for certainty. They want to know that the project they commit to today will be delivered by an experienced team with a proven track record."&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365782]

Kutner said it was clear there was still high demand for luxury projects that offered certainty of delivery.&nbsp;

“We are in a market where many residential developments have faced delays due to rising construction costs, labour shortages and financing challenges,” said Kutner.&nbsp;

"But having construction underway has provided our buyers with resounding confidence backed by more than 40 years of development delivery by Central Equity combined with construction by one of Australia's most respected construction companies."&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365785]

Central Equity is one of Australia's most experienced privately-owned property developers. Over more than four decades, the company has delivered in excess of 85 residential developments including 10,000 apartments and many thousands of stand alone homes.&nbsp;

Located on Garfield Terrace at Northcliffe, between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach, Palmera Residences occupies one of the Gold Coast's most sought after beachside locations. The development has been designed to appeal to owner occupiers seeking premium residences that combine generous living spaces and resort style amenities.&nbsp;

Palmera Residences will feature an exceptional collection of resort style amenities, including two swimming pools: a generously sized family pool with safe shallow zones for relaxed recreation, and a 20 metre lap pool positioned to maximise all day sunlight.&nbsp;

Residents will also enjoy exclusive access to wellness and recreational facilities including a magnesium pool, sauna, yoga studio, expansive fitted gymnasium, resident lounge, outdoor BBQ’s&nbsp;and indoor and outdoor dining areas, together with a dedicated concierge and luxurious hotel inspired entrance foyer.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365767]

A unique feature at Palmera Residences has been designed to enhance the Gold Coast lifestyle which includes both indoor and outdoor gymnasium facilities, together with thoughtfully designed indoor and outdoor dining and entertaining areas. A corner café has also been incorporated to provide residents with a destination for their everyday needs.&nbsp;

Kutner said buyer demand had been broad based with purchasers attracted from interstate as well as throughout South East Queensland.&nbsp;

"We're seeing strong interest from owner occupiers, lifestyle buyers and people relocating to the Gold Coast. Many purchasers have been searching for a premium beachside residence where quality, design and delivery are equally important."&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Kutner said the sales milestone was an important achievement, but the focus remained firmly on delivering an exceptional development.&nbsp;

"While reaching $400 million in sales is an important milestone, our priority remains delivering a project that exceeds purchaser expectations,” he said.&nbsp;

"Palmera Residences has been designed to become one of the Gold Coast's landmark residential addresses, and we look forward to welcoming our purchasers to their new homes."&nbsp;

There are a limited number of residences remaining in selected configurations with pricing from $2,950,000 to $8,950,000. Palmera Residences is also crowned by expansive penthouses with wrap around views.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

Construction certainty and strong buyer demand drive major sales result for luxury Gold Coast development

Palmera Residences fly out the door as sales pass $400 million

National property developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/goldfields-group">Goldfields</a> has appointed BINAH as its construction partner for Quartet, its new Brisbane apartment development in the undersupplied suburb of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/milton-qld-4064">Milton</a>.

Located just two kilometres from the Brisbane CBD and moments from key 2032 Olympic precincts, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/quartet-milton-33-manning-street-milton-qld-4064">Quartet</a> will deliver 131 one, two, three, and four-bedroom apartments priced from $1 million to $4.2 million, combining elevated design with a wellness-focused lifestyle offering.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108736 project_image_fid=368000]

Goldfields’ Chief Executive Officer, Lachlan Thompson, said the appointment of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/binah-constructions">BINAH</a> marked an important milestone for the project.&nbsp;

“Bringing BINAH on board as our construction partner will allow us to bring our vision for Quartet forward with a team that has a proven track record of delivering high-quality residential projects,” Thompson said.&nbsp;

“We’ve taken a considered approach to progressing the site because we wanted to deliver the whole package. Buyers ultimately back great developers, great projects and great builders, and with Quartet, we’ve made sure all three line up.

“People want certainty, they want to know the project will be built, that the homes will be delivered as promised, and that the developer stands behind the quality of what they create. That’s something Goldfields has built its reputation on over many years.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108736 project_image_fid=367993]

BINAH’s Managing Director, Khalil Hafza, said the company was proud to be partnering with Goldfields to deliver Quartet.&nbsp;

“Quartet is an exciting project to bring to life, particularly given the level of detail in the residences and the extensive rooftop amenity planned for the building,” Mr Hafza said.&nbsp;

“Our focus is on delivering a high-quality build that brings that design vision to life and creates homes residents will enjoy for many years.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108736 project_image_fid=367999]

The facilities at Quartet have been feared towards the roof, with a&nbsp;25 metre lap pool, spa, sauna and cold plunge, and a communal barbecue area and alfresco.

Town planning was designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> and brought to life by Melbourne-based architecture firm Cera Stribley.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/cera-stribley">Cera Stribley</a> Co-Founder and Managing Principal, Dom Cerantonio, said the project responds to both its riverside setting and Brisbane’s evolving urban character.&nbsp;

“Quartet has been designed to sit comfortably within its riverside context, offering a refined take on urban living through well-planned, generously proportioned residences that will stand the test of time,” Mr Cerantonio said.&nbsp;

“An emphasis on natural light, natural textures and carefully selected finishes from timber and marble to premium appliances, creates calm, considered interiors designed for comfort and long-term liveability.”&nbsp;

Construction of Quartet will commence in July 2026, with completion anticipated in Q4 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108736]

Construction to commence on 131-residence tower designed around wellness-focused living

Goldfields appoints BINAH for Quartet apartments in Milton

The first partnership between national developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/fortis">Fortis</a> and Adelaide-based developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/otello">Otello</a> has made a strong start, with the pair securing $21 million in unconditional sales at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/one-four-four-hutt-adelaide-144-hutt-street-adelaide-sa-5000">One Four Four Hutt</a>&nbsp;on the edge of the Adelaide CBD.

Over a third of apartments have been snapped up in the boutique 44-apartment project on the corner of Hutt Stret and Wakefield Road. Local downsizers and owner-occupiers wanting to remain in Adelaide's tightly-held southeast quarter have been the most prominent purchasers.

The DKO-designed, mixed-use development is one of the few new apartment projects in the precinct, an area where new housing supply has remained limited despite continued demand from buyers wanting to stay close to the CBD, Victoria Park and Adelaide's established east-end amenities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151233 project_image_fid=375378]

Fortis Head of Development SA Arthur Dendrinos said the early sales reflected both the strength of the local owner-occupier market and confidence in the Hutt Street location.

"The level of early commitment reflects the confidence local buyers have in the Hutt Street precinct," Dendrinos said.

"Many purchasers are long-term east-end residents who love the area and want to stay connected to the neighbourhood. They recognise the value of a well-designed, well-located development.

"Our partnership with Otello has been central to this success, and the number of unconditional sales at this stage only strengthens our confidence in the South Australian market."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151233 project_image_fid=375379]

Otello Director Daniel Harris said the sales result also highlighted the lack of new apartment opportunities within the Hutt Street precinct.

"One Four Four Hutt has clearly resonated with buyers, with strong early sales reflecting both the appeal of the Hutt Street corridor and the lifestyle on offer," Harris said.

"The activated ground-floor retail has also been a key drawcard, with purchasers responding to the vision of a more vibrant and connected streetscape, not just the residences themselves."

One Four Four Hutt will deliver 44 one, two and three-bedroom apartments, alongside a collection of penthouses, above a ground-floor retail offering designed to further activate the Hutt Street precinct.

Construction is scheduled to commence in the third quarter of this year, with completion anticipated in 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151233]

Fortis Head of Development SA Arthur Dendrinos said the early sales reflected both the strength of the local owner-occupier market and confidence in the Hutt Street location.

Fortis makes Adelaide debut with Otello as One Four Four Hutt records strong early sales

Residential Property

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Houses in Newcastle, the New South Wales Central Coast and Coffs Harbour are at the peak of market, according to valuation firm Herron Todd White’s June property clock.
Melbourne, the Gold Coast and South East NSW are approaching the peak market.
Houses in Cairns, Gladstone and Mackay are at the bottom of the market. 
Toowoomba’s housing market was noted as starting to decline in the May property clock.
Last month HTW said in relation to the Toowoomba housing market there is currently an oversupply of residential products, particularly units, that emerged during 2016.
As a result vacancy rates have increased while rental rates and investor interest has reduced.
“While properties in the sub $400,000 market have showed some signs of regression in value and rental rates, it appears that higher end property above $600,000 and even the $1 million plus price point have enjoyed a good level of interest with some strong sales being achieved,” the May report stated.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/06/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-07%20at%209.27.21%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/06/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-07%20at%209.27.21%20AM.png" alt="">
HTW's June report concentrated on the renovation market, stating that renovations are popular now in the NSW Central Coast.
In their June report, HTW said some reasons for renovating are to make an income, improve the value of a property or overcome the need to shift homes, meaning the kids can remain at the same school and a longer commute to work can be avoided.
"Closely aligned with adding value, those starting out with limited budgets or borrowing capacity buy in less expensive areas and carry out renovations to increase their equity.
"Although not definitive, a good gauge of what stage the property cycle is at can be seen from the valuation requests we receive. We can analyse this from the property type and specifics of the request – for a new purchase, a change from one lender to another or funds required to carry out renovations or extensions.
"Lately, there has been a slight increase in renovation or extension on completion assessments.
"This tells us the market cycle is on the move again and this generally follows a period of growth where values of home purchases are getting beyond many upgraders and a decision is made to stay and renovate rather than move. 
We are seeing this growing in many parts of the central coast region.
"From our perspective, we see more valuation requests received for owner-occupiers seeking funds to carry out renovations.
"We believe the reason for this is that owner-occupiers tend to spend more on renovations or extensions to improve personal comfort or functionality with the medium to long term in mind – think that often used term ‘forever home’.
"Whereas, investors usually spend less on make overs and use their own funds with the prime motivation of increasing the returns for as small an outlay as possible.
"Properties available for renovation can be located close to the main centres or the beach and lakefront areas. They’re the ones advertised as having enormous potential, renovate or detonate, suited for tradies and similar. They can just as easily be located in those suburbs previously seen as undesirable but thanks to the strong market over the past few years, have proven affordable to new entrants in the market. Suburbs that spring to mind in this region include Narara, Niagara Park, Killarney Vale and Berkeley Vale."
HTW said property in Newcastle is at the point of the cycle where it’s a fine line between upsizing your current dwelling or simply staying put and adding value to your existing home with an extra couple of rooms.
"The option to stay and extend is attractive when you look at the savings you would make on the transactional aspect of moving to a new home," HTW said.
"You save stamp duty, agent’s fees, finance charges and moving costs which on a reasonable home can be close to $100,000 in real dollars. Utilising that money on your extension can really kick start your plans. 
"The key driver of the Newcastle and Lake Macquarie markets at present is the lack of stock available; essentially the supply side is very low. When you have a low supply side, as long as demand is reasonable and constant, this can place upward pressure on prices. This in turn raises values and in many cases the price has increased enough to set a new benchmark level for your land.
"The increased price of the underlying land may be such that it is economic to knock down your existing home and build a brand new house.
"As an example, you may have purchased your home originally for $350,000 in 2005. Your house may be worth $650,000 now (not unreasonable here in Newcastle). Your underlying land value might be $450,000 which far outstrips your initial purchase price and makes building a brand new home where you currently live more feasible.
"We note that builders’ prices and waiting periods are signi cantly up across the board which indicates strong demand for renovations and extensions. We often see builders’ trucks in quiet suburban streets clogging up both sides of the road with extensions and small building projects.
"Anecdotally the home renovation boom is very much the avour of the moment with the number of renovation programs on TV indicative of current trends. At present, in strong localities it appears quite hard to over capitalise with sales seemingly attaining record prices on a weekly basis."
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Newcastle, Central Coast and Coffs Harbour houses at market peak: HTW

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GUEST OBSERVER
Australia’s household debt has been rising and is high by international standards.
The household debt-to-income ratio has risen from 167 percent in 2011 to 190 percent in Q4 2016. Assessing how much to worry about this is not straightforward.
On the one hand, high levels of debt make the economy more vulnerable to a negative economic shock. On the other hand, appropriately allocated debt is an engine of economic growth, as it better allocates resources between savers and investors.
Our long held view is that high household debt is not, in itself, a problem, as long as it is held by households that can continue to service it. The problem faced by many economies during the global financial crisis, such as the US and Spain, was that household debt was misallocated to households that could not service it. In Australia, the latest available statistics suggest that the distribution is fairly favourable.
As at 2014, most of the debt was held by high income earners and there were few low income households with large debt servicing burdens. In addition, Australia does not have sub-prime borrowers and all of the mortgages are full recourse.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-17%20at%208.14.17%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-17%20at%208.14.17%20AM.png" alt="">
However, household debt has risen since 2014 and there has been an investor-led house price boom in Sydney and Melbourne. As a result, it is hard to be certain about how much risk has built up recently. The longer it goes on, the more difficult it is to judge. It is for this reason that prudential settings have been tightened and that RBA Governor, Mr. Phil Lowe, has repeated that it would not be in the ‘public interest’ to cut interest rates further if it provided another boost to housing prices and debt.
In its recent financial stability review, the RBA deemed that, given lending standards have been tightening, the key risk from rising household debt is to the macroeconomic cycle rather than financial stability.
The central bank’s own granular assessment is that any build-up of risks that could see rising defaults in a downturn is not large enough to be a financial-system-wide risk. Rather, they suggest the key risk is that the higher household leverage could amplify the economic cycle. We expect that concerns about high and rising household debt will be a key factor that keeps the RBA from cutting its cash rate further. We expect prudential settings to remain tight. 
Household debt is high, but mostly for fundamental reasons
Australia has high household debt and it has been climbing further in recent years. Indeed, across the range of economies regularly tracked by the Bank of International Settlements, Australia has the second highest level of household debt, relative to nominal GDP (Chart 1). In contrast, corporate debt is about average and public debt is low by international standards.
At the outset, a key question is: why is household debt high? In Australia, high household debt reflects that: firstly, the bulk of the housing stock, including the rental properties, is owned directly by the household sector using leverage, which is not the case across many nations; and, secondly, that housing prices are fairly high when compared with household incomes.
On the first point, this is because the owner-occupation rate is high, at around 68%, and because the bulk of the rental properties are also owned by the household sector directly. In Australia, investment properties, which are then rented, are a tax-favoured investment. So, unlike most other economies, including the US, for example, the stock of rental properties involves debt on the household balance sheet, rather than the corporate balance sheet. As a result, around one-quarter of Australia’s household debt is held by investors, which is a key reason that household debt levels are higher in Australia than elsewhere (Chart 2).
On the second point, Australia’s housing prices are fairly high relative to household incomes, although they are not exceptionally so (Chart 3). Australia’s housing-price to income ratio is around 5 times, which is a similar level to the UK, Ireland, Denmark, Spain, and the Netherlands. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-17%20at%208.17.13%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-17%20at%208.17.13%20AM.png" alt="">
For Australia, housing prices are high for a range of reasons, including relative economic success in the form of continued growth, low interest rates, strong population growth, and high foreign demand, in the face of limited supply.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-17%20at%208.18.25%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-17%20at%208.18.25%20AM.png" alt="">
Some of these factor are cyclical, such as low interest rates, while others are structural. A key structural factor is limited housing supply. The supply of well-located housing has been limited by planning regulations and poor urban infrastructure. As a result, Australia has very low rates of urban density despite being a largely empty continent (Chart 4). Although there has been a ramp up in residential construction in recent years, in the largest city, Sydney, there is still not enough being built to meet demand (see Downunder Digest: Apartment building boom is nearing its end, 10 January 2017).
It’s the distribution of debt that matters the most
If the overall high level of household debt is driven by fundamentals, then what’s the worry? Part of the concern is that debt has been climbing recently, and that the rise has been driven by investors, rather than owner-occupiers (Chart 5). Again, even this is not worrisome, as long as the new borrowers are expected to be able to continue to service the debt. Thus it is the distribution of debt that matters the most, a point we have made before (see Downunder Digest: Australia’s rising household debt: should we worry?, 22 April 2016). The challenge is that there is considerable uncertainty about the distribution of debt and that this uncertainty rises when growth in debt is driven by new borrowers.
In Australia’s case, the key cross-sectional survey from 2014 shows quite favourable trends. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-17%20at%208.19.28%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-17%20at%208.19.28%20AM.png" alt="">
The survey shows that the bulk of the household debt is held by high-income earners, with 74% of the debt held by the top 40% of income earners. The survey also shows that most of Australia’s highly-indebted households (those with debt-to-income ratios in the top 10th percentile of debt holders) are also high-income earners (Chart 6).
Australia’s financial regulatory environment is also strong. All mortgages are full recourse and there is no sub-prime lending. Australians also have an incentive to pay down their mortgages ahead of schedule, as they cannot deduct the expenses associated with their owner-occupied housing, such as mortgage interest, against their other taxable income. As a result, the average mortgage holder is around 21⁄2 years ahead on their mortgage payments (when offset accounts and redraw facilities are included). This means that the average borrower has a significant buffer on which to draw in the event of job loss or some other negative income shock.
So what is the concern? First, the information on the distribution of debt is from 2014 and we know that household debt has risen since then. We do not know much about the distribution of the new debt, although we do know that the bulk of it has been for property investors. On the positive side, historically, investors have been less likely to default on mortgages than first home buyers as investors tend to have equity in an owner-occupied property, and tend to be older and higher-income households with a loan repayment history. On the negative side, we do not know much about the new investors in recent years, although we know that the prudential regulator has been tightening its settings since late 2014 to prevent an excessive build-up of risk.
Second, although the average mortgage holder has a significant buffer, it is not the average borrower that typically defaults. At the riskier end of the spectrum of borrowers there is evidence of mortgage holders with only slim buffers against a negative income shock. For example, in a recent speech (4 May 2017), the RBA Governor, Mr. Phil Lowe, referred to data on securitised loans which showed that about one-third of borrowers only have a one-month buffer.
However, in that same speech Governor Lowe relayed that the RBA’s own assessment, with full access to all of the granular lending numbers, was that the risk of rising household debt levels was not to financial stability but to the macroeconomic cycle. Given that lending standards have been tightened and that risky loans are still only a small share of financial system liabilities, a large enough rise in loan defaults to shake the overall financial system is unlikely.
What happens when housing price growth slows?
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-17%20at%208.20.23%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-17%20at%208.20.23%20AM.png" alt="">
The RBA’s concern is that, when housing price and household credit growth slow down, this could exacerbate the economic cycle. Sydney and Melbourne have had significant housing prices booms in recent years, although it has been quite concentrated to these cities (Chart 8). 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-17%20at%208.21.27%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-17%20at%208.21.27%20AM.png" alt="">
Sydney and Melbourne housing prices have risen 77 percent and 58 percent over the past five years, while housing prices are only 14 percent higher in the rest of the nation.
The RBA’s argument is that the eventual slowdown, or fall, in housing prices and easing in the pace of household credit growth could weaken overall economic growth, particularly growth in household consumption.
While a slowdown in housing activity would, no doubt, have some effect, it may not be as large as in the past. Indeed, there is clear evidence that the recent ramp up in housing prices and household debt has had little impact on households’ willingness to borrow to consume goods and services. Unlike the early 2000s housing boom, households have not been withdrawing equity from their properties, but rather have been injecting it in recent years (Chart 9). If there has not been a significant positive wealth effect from rising housing prices and household debt, any slowdown in these factors may also have a more muted effect than in the past.
A key counter-argument is that the household saving rate has been falling in recent years, which provides some evidence of a positive wealth effect (Chart 10). That is, households may have been more willing to lower their saving out of income because their wealth has been rising.
However, the state-level numbers suggest that this story is a bit more nuanced. The biggest fall in the saving rate has occurred in Western Australia, following a sharp rise earlier. This reflects the impact of the mining boom, which boosted incomes significantly in that state prior to 2011/12 and where incomes have fallen since. Western Australian households saved when income growth was strong and have been saving less recently, in line with what a permanent income model might suggest.
However, the saving rate has not moved much in New South Wales and Victoria, where the housing markets have been booming recently. This suggests that the wealth effect has, in fact, been quite small in these states, consistent with the housing equity withdrawal numbers.
In our view, when the housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne cool, which we expect to be the case this year and next, we do not expect a large negative wealth effect.
For the RBA, the idea of the overall economic cycle being exacerbated by the housing cycle is clearly a concern. In our view this concern would suggest an earlier tightening, rather than a later one, though. If the concern is not allowing the housing boom to continue too long, because the end of the boom could cause problems, the risk-averse approach is likely to be higher rates, not lower ones. 
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<a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC. 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

How worrisome is Australia’s high household debt? Paul Bloxham

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The changing dynamic of home ownership in the US post-GFC, where Generation Y have transformed into Generation Rent, offers opportunities for Australian investors, says a study by AMP Capital.
The demographic shift leading to a steady decline in home ownership and its implications for real estate investors and the opportunities within the US apartment REIT sector has been dealt with in AMP Capital’s whitepaper, Generation Rent, authored by its Client Portfolio Manager for Global Listed Real Estate Chris Deves.
“The ever-changing consumption pattern of real estate, juxtaposed against its status as perpetual imperative for a functioning society, presents an interesting dynamic and is precisely that which offers a wide range of opportunities for long-term investors,” says Deves.
The rise of the millennial generation and its implications for the residential market in the United States is a case in point, he adds.
“The greater propensity for millennials to rent isn’t necessarily a surprise. After all, this is the same generation that pioneered the ‘sharing economy’, a collaborative approach to consumption, which draws heavily on the notion of renting,” said report author Chris Deves.
Millennials are opting for proximity to nightlife, restaurants and the workplace along with access to shared spaces and amenities, which is translating into greater demand for rented apartments in the urban core, he says. 
“As a demographic cohort, the strong willingness of millennials to relocate in the pursuit of new career opportunities necessitates flexibility and mobility, which is also more conducive to renting over owning.”
The paper shows this is an important tailwind for US apartment REITs, which make up roughly 8 per cent of the global listed real estate benchmark or more than US$100 billion of equity market capitalisation.
The development in American dwelling habits is a positive for residential landlords, which in turn is investible via the listed institutional apartment operators. 
US-based apartment REITs make up roughly 8 per cent of the global listed real estate benchmark, or more than US$100 billion of equity market capitalisation, the third-largest US sector behind mall and office owners. The apartment REITs are generally of high quality and have seen significant consolidation in recent times – five such REITs have been acquired or have merged during the past three years alone – leaving an investible set of large, well-capitalised companies with seasoned management teams, according to the AMP report.
“This has made apartment REITs attractive for real estate investors with a long-term investment horizon,” Deves said.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/19/USHomeOwnership.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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The assets held by these listed apartment REITs are predominantly located in the urban core where renting is most common. The change towards rentership (and, thus, migration into the city) is a positive for increasingly dense and difficult-to-build-in urban property markets. Additionally, an increasing focus on public transportation links should further benefit the high-quality apartment names.
Enter the Millennials
According to the white paper, the fall in the homeownership rate in the aftermath of the GFC was in part due to the rise in defaults on home loans. Though the default rate has recovered to 4 percent in 2016 from 11.3 per cent in early 2010, the declining trend of home ownership has sustained over the longer term.
Now, America is undergoing a major demographic shift. Millennials – or those born between 1980 and 2004, according to the US Census Bureau – are now the largest share of the American workforce, as depicted in Figure 4. By 2025, Millennials will represent 75 per cent of the American workforce [Source: US Bureau of Labor, 2016]. As the largest source of new demand for housing, be it home sales or rentals, this cohort wields significant influence over the residential real estate market.
The most important trend underlying the Millennial demographic is a greater propensity to rent, particularly in the urban core, at the expense of homeownership. 
The movement of the prime renter demographic into the city centre will have an impact on apartment values. Cities have historically had a larger share of renters compared to suburban areas. So it is not surprising to see that the populations of US cities have become increasingly composed of renter households alongside the national increase in renters. Of the 11 largest US cities, nine had more renters than homeowners in 2014 versus just six of these same cities in 2006. 
As a result of this migration away from the suburbs and towards the city, the apartment business has become a more attractive full-cycle investment. A bigger pool of renters means a more stable business at a given level of supply; additionally, an increasingly older tenant mix (Millennials rent later into life) should improve affordability ratios and allow for healthier rent increases. 
Lastly, because of land and entitlement constraints in dense, urban areas – which will become increasingly more onerous over time – high quality, core product will become scarcer as demand from renter households continues to increase, and thus, should appreciate at a faster pace. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/19/USAptReits.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/19/USAptReits.png" alt="">
However, millennials won’t rent forever.
“The American dream of home ownership is not dead and buried. Gen Y are just as likely to head for the suburbs as previous generations, and starting a family is often an important catalyst. The key difference is that we are seeing this occur increasingly later in life,” said Deves.
“Cyclical affordability issues and demographic change has and will support demand for apartment rentals in city centres. During the property cycle, the US apartment REITs should therefore be in a stronger position to push rents, and quality management teams with insight into the needs of millennials will be best placed to deliver value for investors of all sizes.”
While the story is similar for Australian millennials, investing in the US could be an ideal way to play this trend for local investors as it offers the largest, highest quality, and most liquid set of listed apartment landlords, according to the report.
“Australian investors should consider a global strategy for listed real estate in order to access these kinds of thematics, which may not be as readily investible in their local market. A global approach also offers geographic diversification for the real estate portfolio,” concluded Dewes.
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prateek24-ezbwHMbNAk

As US home ownership declines, opportunity arises for investors: AMP Capital

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Sydney home prices kept up their strong capital growth in February, as capital city home values rose a further 1.4 percent during the month, according to the monthly CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index.
The strong capital gain over February was led by Canberra (+3.2 percent) and Sydney (+2.6 percent), with Melbourne (+1.5 percent) and Hobart (+1.0 percent) also returning significant increases. 
In contrast, dwelling values were down over the month across Darwin (-4.3 percent), Perth (-2.4 percent) and Brisbane (-0.4 percent). Meanwhile, the rental market remains soft, pushing yields to a record low. The average dwelling yield across the combined capital cities fell to 3.2% over the month, a new low.
Summarising the capital gains in home values, CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said, “At a combined capital city level, growth conditions have been rebounding since the middle of last year when, on two separate occasions, interest rates were cut, and investor demand commenced trending higher.” 
“Prior to capital gains accelerating half way through last year, the growth trend had been moderating, reaching a cyclical low point over the twelve months ended July 2016 when the annual change in capital city dwelling values slowed to 6.1 percent.” 
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 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/1/CoreLogicIndex.png" alt="">
A new cyclical high for annual growth rates 
February’s results mark a new high point in the current growth cycle, with capital city home values increasing by 11.7 percent over the past twelve months, said Lawless.
“The annual growth rate across the combined capitals hasn’t been this strong since the twelve months ending June 2010,” he said.
“In Sydney, where the annual rate of growth is now 18.4%, this is the highest annual growth rate since the twelve months ending December 2002 when the housing boom of the early 2000’s started to slow.” 
The latest CoreLogic results take the current housing growth cycle into its 58th month. Since capital city dwelling values started to rise in June 2012, dwelling values have increased by a cumulative 47.3 percent, ranging from a 74.9 percent capital gain in Sydney, to a net rise of 6 percent in Perth. 
Sydney, and to a lesser extent, Melbourne, have remained at the top of the capital gain tables over the past two cycles. Since the beginning of 2009, Sydney dwelling values have more than doubled, rising by 104.5 percent while Melbourne values are 87.7 percent higher. The next best performing capital city over the same period was Canberra where dwelling values have risen by a comparatively modest 37.4 percent. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/1/CoreLogicHighs.png" alt="">
“The strong growth conditions across Sydney have provided a substantial wealth boost for home owners, however, the flipside is that housing costs are becoming increasingly out of reach. This is especially true for price-sensitive segments of the market such as first time buyers and low income families,” Lawless said. 
“Affordability challenges are most pronounced across the Sydney housing market where, based on September 2016 data, dwelling prices are almost 8.5 times higher than gross household incomes. The second most expensive capital city, Melbourne, has a dwelling price to income ratio of 7.1.” 
In contrast, the February results show that the cities with greater exposure to the mining downturn have continued to record weak housing market results. Dwelling values slipped lower in Perth and Darwin over the month, taking the cumulative decline in values since these markets peaked in 2014 to 10 percent and 11.5 percent respectively. Brisbane also recorded a fall in dwelling values over the month, however values have been slowly trending higher despite the negative monthly result. 
As a consequence, housing affordability has shown a marked improvement in these regions, with the dwelling price to income ratio tracking at 5.7 in Brisbane, 5.5 in Perth and 4.5 in Darwin based on September 2016 data. 
Rental yields slipping to record lows 
While dwelling values continued to rise, weekly rents remained comparatively soft. As a result, downward pressure has been placed on rental yields. The average dwelling yield across the combined capital cities fell to 3.2% over the month, which is a new record low. Five years ago, the average capital city yield was a full percentage point higher at 4.2 percent. 
Sydney has shown the most significant compression in rental yields over the past five years, with the average gross yield reducing by 150 basis points to reach 2.9 percent (2.7 percent for houses and 3.7 percent for units). 
Lawless said, “Despite the record low rental yields on offer, investor demand remains high, suggesting investors are likely to be relying on a negative gearing strategy to compensate for their cash flow losses. It also indicates that investors are speculating on future capital gains.” 
“The latest housing finance data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics indicates that investors comprise approximately 57% of new mortgage demand across New South Wales (excluding refinanced loans). This is substantially higher than the long run average, which is slightly above one third.” 
Commenting overall on the February results, Lawless said, “The renewed strength in the housing market is corroborated by a range of other data points such as auction results, low advertised stock levels and rapid selling times.” 
According to CoreLogic auction results, 2017 began on a very strong footing with capital city clearance rates generally tracking in the high 70 percent to mid-80 percent range from week to week. The results of ‘Super Saturday’ last week saw an unprecedented number of auctions for February; clearance rates reached a new high for 2017 despite the large number of auctions held. 
Advertised listing numbers remain low across the hottest housing markets, with total residential advertised listings in Sydney tracking 11.3 percent lower than the same period a year ago, Melbourne total listings are 5.1% lower than last year, Hobart listings are down by 35 percent and Canberra advertised stock levels are 6.2 percent lower than a year ago. 
Lawless said, “Low levels of advertised stock for sale at a time when buyer demand remains strong is creating a sense of urgency among buyers, which is adding to the upward pressure on prices. This helps to explain why clearance rates are so high, and private treaty sales are so rapid across the strongest markets.” 
Growth likely to moderate later this year 
“Overall, the latest results from the CoreLogic Hedonic Index highlights the performance diversity across Australia’s housing market. The continuation of the capital gains rebound is likely to create further discomfort among policy makers, particularly in light of the growing debate around affordability and the high level of demand from investors.” 
“I remain of the view that housing market conditions will moderate during 2017 due to affordability constraints impacting on housing demand, as well as higher supply levels and an eventual slowing of investment demand brought about either through changed policies from Australian lenders or via regulatory changes aimed at slowing credit growth across the investment sector.”
At around the median price of $635,000 a three bedroom house at<a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-act-kambah-124457326" target="_blank"> 8 Sholl Place</a>, Kambah (above) was sold yesterday for $609,000. 
Similarly a four bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-act-amaroo-124657490" target="_blank">11 Cooloola Street</a>, Amaroo (below) was sold last week for $635,000, having last traded for $439,000 in 2004.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/1/11%20Cooloola%20Street.jpg" alt="">
At around the median price of $405,000 a two bedroom unit at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-apartment-act-watson-124626206" target="_blank">49/23 Aspinall Street</a>, Watson (below) was sold last week for $401,500, having last traded for $165,000 in 2008.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/1/49_23%20Aspinall%20Street.jpg" alt="">
Similarly a two bedroom house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-apartment-act-belconnen-124227770" target="_blank">309/80 Chandler Street</a>, Belconnen (below) was sold two week ago for $402,000.
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Capital city home values rise nearly 12 percent in a year, hitting new cyclical high: CoreLogic  

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A prime parkside property at Chatswood has been sold for $4,955,000, the dearest result at auctions across Australia over the weekend.
Located at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-chatswood-124569382" target="_blank">47 Stanley Street</a>, the property was marketed as "an ideal combination of prime positioning and powerful potential."
The solid five bedroom Federation home sits on a 925 sq m block with views over Bales Park.
There were 25 bids before it was knocked down to an owner occupier at about 15 per cent above its reserve.
It has many original period details along with marble fireplaces, high ornate ceilings and polished floors.
The property was offered through LJ Hooker agents John McManus and Jing Peng.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Chatswood parkside Federation trophy home sold for $4,955,000

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A one bedroom unit at Bacchus Marsh, kms from Melbourne, was sold for $166,000 in the nation's cheapest weekend sale.
It last sold at $101,000 in 2006, reflecting 4.7 percent annual growth.
Located at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-unit-vic-bacchus+marsh-124468598" target="_blank">2/22 Grant Street</a> it is within walking distance to Bacchus Marsh Hospital, cafes and restaurants.
It features a generous bedroom with a recently updated en-suite.
A lounge room, meals area, functional kitchen and separate laundry are in the property.
The property was offered through PRD Nationwide agents Sean Tan and Russell Parker.
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One bedroom Bacchus Marsh unit sold for $166,000

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The upcoming weekend auction market in Sydney's will be another big test with nearly 700 auctions listed, up from last weekend's 543 according to Domain's Dr Andrew Wilson.
He said nearly 900 homes will be up for auction in Melbourne, nearly double last weekend’s 471 listings, with Melbourne's  west suburban region hosting the most number of auctions on Saturday with 156.
"This is followed by the inner south with 130, the inner city 123, the outer east 115, the inner east significantly higher this weekend with 111, the north east 100, the north 67 and the south east with 63 auctions listed on the weekend.
"The most popular suburb for auctions this weekend in Melbourne is Richmond with 18 followed by Glen Waverley with 16, Northcote and Hawthorn each with 14, Preston 13, St Albans and Craigieburn each with 12 and Mt Waverley and Armadale with 11 auctions each on Saturday.
"The Sydney auction market is now in full swing with a higher proportion of homes from inner suburban, higher-priced regions now looking for buyers.
"The city and east will host the most number of auctions with 108 followed by the upper north shore 98, the inner west 88, the northern beaches 63, the south 58, the lower north 56, the west 47, Canterbury Bankstown 45, the south west 39, the north west 28, the central coast 22 and the Blue Mountains with 1 auction listed for Saturday.
"The most popular suburb for auctions this weekend in Sydney is Randwick with 12 followed by Mosman 11, Manly and St Ives each with 9 and a number of suburbs with 8 auctions listed including Epping, Cronulla, Lindfield and Greenacre."
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Big test for auction numbers this weekend: Andrew Wilson

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GUEST OBSERVER
A number of recently released statistics suggest that the Perth residential property market is primed for investment in 2017.
Key indicators offer reason to believe that Perth is moving through the bottom of its current residential property cycle, and investors may be able to capture the full benefits of the next upswing by acting in the coming months.
Some positive signs in the market are contributing to an overall shift in sentiment amongst buyers, with many feeling optimistic about 2017.
Smart investors know that now is a great time to buy in Perth, but as we’ve always said, selecting the right property type in the right area is also very important, and at the moment there are some very attractive opportunities out there for savvy investors.
Stronger numbers
The latest data released by the Real Estate Institute of Western Australia (REIWA) shows that Perth’s preliminary median house price for the December 2016 quarter did not change at $520,000, which is a positive sign as historically once all sales have settled, this preliminary median generally increases, so Perth could in fact record an increase in price over the quarter.
Sales activity is increasing with the preliminary dwelling sales for the December quarter 2016 five per cent higher than the same time in 2015. For the week ending 31st of January 2017, property listings were down about 2 percent year on year, indicating that some of the excess supply in the market is starting to be absorbed.
Furthermore, CoreLogic’s recently released RP Data report revealed that Perth dwelling prices improved by .2 percent in January contributing to a 2.1 percent rise over the past three months, adding to conjecture about the beginning of a recovery after a long period of negative growth.
Great time to buy right
Buying strategy is just as important as timing in order to maximise the benefits of any approaching upswing. Investors who examine potential demographic, social, infrastructure and planning changes will have the best chance in purchasing a property that will outperform the market.
For example, in 2007, our research team identified the City of Belmont as an investment grade suburb with strong short and long term growth drivers exposing many of our clients to the rapid price growth that occurred in this area.
The report explores some of the research and resulting strategies the company employed to capitalise on investments in Belmont.
With stock of listings still comparatively high, interest rates at record lows and affordability amongst the best in the nation, the current market presents excellent buying conditions in 2017:
Investors who can identify a good long term growth property and negotiate a favourable deal should purchase now to realise significant price growth in the future.
Damian Collins is the founder and managing director of Momentum Wealth and can be contacted <a href="https://www.momentumwealth.com.au/damian-collins/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Perth primed for smart investors: Damian Collins

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There’s a well-versed property adage that the greater the supply, the weaker the sales success. 
And the opposite has been the case especially in Sydney and Melbourne. 
In 2017 across Australia there’ll be 1000s of auctions every week. 
To ensure your property buying success, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/stories/marketing/ebooks/eBook_16-tips-for-buying-well-at-auction-in-2017.pdf" target="_blank">click here</a> to download our eBook, 16 tips for wise auction bidding.
 
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po-LsXgBTHBmX

16 tips for buying well at auction in 2017

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GUEST OBSERVER
Respondents to the ANZ-Property Council Survey report a more optimistic outlook for the property sector in 2017.
Confidence rose to a two-year high, supported by stronger expectations of economic growth, capital values, and forward work schedules.
Sentiment is still strongest in New South Wales, while the outlook for Queensland’s property market looks to have bottomed, and is embarking on a tentative recovery.
Firms nationwide now expect interest rates to rise over the next 12 months. This likely reflects a combination of the RBA cutting cycle reaching an end, and recent increases in bond yields and retail interest rates – especially in the housing market.
Confidence in residential property rose significantly, in line with other positive data flow on the housing market in recent months, including price growth, auction results, and investor finance.
Commercial property sentiment remains elevated, especially in the tourism sector. The improvement in the outlook for commercial offices is also encouraging.
ANZ chief economist Richard Yetsenga said the first quarter ANZ-Property Council Survey shows a further increase in sentiment in the property sector, despite the sharp slowdown in economic growth prior to the survey.
"Nonetheless, we believe growth will continue to pick up through 2017, with most of the Q3 weakness proving to be only temporary," he said.
"Our solid outlook for the Australian economy in 2017 is broadly consistent with the strong tone to this quarter’s survey. Sentiment in New South Wales’, Victoria’s, and the ACT’s property markets sits around record levels, in line with the transition away from mining-led growth. A stronger non-mining economy means that we believe the RBA’s easing cycle is over, and we expect rates will remain on hold this year.
A noteworthy feature of this quarter’s survey is that businesses nationwide now expect interest rates to increase over the coming year. This reflects both the RBA being at the end of their easing cycle, as well as tighter funding conditions. But as of yet, there is little sign that the likelihood of higher funding costs is having an adverse impact on the property sector.” 
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The March quarter survey showed that firms are considerably more optimistic around the outlook for the property sector. Confidence reached a 2-year high, with 31 percent of respondents expecting conditions in the property market to improve over the next 12 months.
The outlook remains quite mixed across the states, with New South Wales still leading the way (Figure 1), while Western Australia continues to feel the negative effects of declining mining investment. Encouragingly, sentiment in Queensland appears to be showing some signs of a base.
Queensland tends to get lumped with Western Australia as a ‘mining state’, but the transition to growth outside the mining sector appears much more advanced in the eastern state. Recent GDP data show that Queensland’s business investment has increased for the past two quarters, and in annual terms is much less of a drag on the state economy compared to 12 months ago.
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Consistent with this result, ANZ-Property Council respondents in Queensland are reporting a more positive state economic outlook and generally rising capital values over the next year.
One trend that is consistent across the states is the expectation that interest rates will rise over the next 12 months. This is a significant turnaround from just 6 months ago, when respondents in all states expected rates to move lower (Figure 2).
We believe this changed outlook reflects two influences. First, it is increasingly likely that the RBA is now at the end of its easing cycle, after having cut rates again in August. Second, bond yields have been rising for the past few months, and even more recently housing investors have seen their interest rates increase. All in all, it appears highly unlikely that today’s record low interest rates will continue to fall.
Much of the improved outlook for the property market came from the residential segment, supported by improved expectations of capital price growth, forward work schedules, and construction activity (Figure 3). The stronger price growth expectations are largely in line with recent results in the housing market. House prices have returned to double-digit annual growth rates across Sydney and Melbourne, while auction clearance rates have steadily increased and now sit only a fraction lower than last year’s peak (Figure 4). Coupled with the returning presence of investors, it appears that demand for housing is reasonably steady at an elevated level.
 
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The recent improvement in work schedules and construction activity expectations is also a positive. While we expect dwelling investment to fall slightly through the second half of 2017 given the recent decline in building approvals, a significant backlog of work is likely to see construction remain around historically high levels. 
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Sentiment in the commercial property segment is still stronger than in residential property (Figure 5). The March quarter survey saw the outlook for commercial property rise to the second-highest level on record, driven by an ongoing improvement in commercial office sentiment, and still-elevated levels of confidence in the tourism industry. 
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Net confidence in the commercial offices segment has been steadily rising for nearly two years, reflecting an improving outlook for price growth and construction activity. This result is in line with ongoing absorption of office space as white-collar employment continues to rise across the major capital cities.
The outlook for the tourism industry remains very strong despite a small decline in the March quarter. A net 64% of respondents expect tourism-related construction activity will rise over the next 12 months, 52 percent believe their company’s forward work schedule will rise, and 39% forecast capital values to rise. This positive outlook is consistent with data showing the ongoing strength in Australia’s services exports, which includes tourism (Figure 6). 
Importantly, the resilience of the AUD over the past year does not appear to have had a dampening effect on tourist inflows and expenditure. This suggests the strength of the tourism sector is not solely dependent on the currency, and is supported by other factors such as the rapid wealth expansion of the Chinese middle class. This broadening of demand bodes well for the growth prospects of an increasingly key component of Australia’s economy. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/12/Screen%20Shot%202017-01-12%20at%209.39.45%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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Daniel Gradwell is economist, ANZ and Richard Yetsenga is chief economist They can be contacted <a href="https://www.anz.com/corporate/research/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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