Enfield may be home to fewer than 3,000 residents, but its prime location between Strathfield and Burwood has cemented its status as one of the Inner West’s hidden gems.

The suburb offers a village-style lifestyle with an abundance of cafés, restaurants, and boutique shops, staples of Inner West living.

At the last census, there were only around 300 apartments in the suburb. Fewer than a handful of new apartment developments have been delivered in recent years, but none are as well positioned as The Carlyle, just a three-minute walk to Henley Park, arguably one of the best parks in the area.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-carlyle-enfield-164-liverpool-rd-enfield-nsw-2136">The Carlyle</a> will comprise 32 one- and two-bedroom apartments, a mix rarely seen in the new development market across Sydney.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148733 project_image_fid=6667]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects-western-sydney">Ray White Projects WS</a>&nbsp;is fielding enquiry from several buyer types.

"First home buyers are realising this is the best time to get into the market," says Mark Bernberg, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects-western-sydney">Ray White Projects WS</a>&nbsp;Managing Director.

"There are now several government incentives assisting first home buyers to get onto the property ladder. The recent announcement to waive lender's mortgage insurance for those with low deposits puts tens of thousands back in their pockets. Pair that with stamp duty savings in the new apartment space, and there has never been a better time to be a first home buyer in the off the plan apartment market."

Bernberg has also seen a re-emergence of investors, attracted to the low supply of apartments in Enfield and the suburb's lifestyle, while also being on the fringe of Burwood, which is set to undergo a huge transformation with its recent rezoning around the new metro station.

"That will bring a wealth of new retail and amenity to the area, which tends to drive prices higher," Bernberg says.

"Rents are at record highs, and with interest rates coming down from the highs earlier this year, investment apartments are starting to stack up again financially."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148733 project_image_fid=6665]

The Carlyle apartments will sit above doorstep amenity, with a two-level retail podium incorporated into the striking building. The retail component will include a new ground-floor café facing Carlyle Street.

Two-bedroom apartments range from 67 sqm to 83 sqm internally, with some of the larger residences on the top level featuring expansive wraparound balconies. These layouts are designed to enhance seamless indoor-outdoor living, maximising natural light and views.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148733 project_image_fid=6666]

The Carlyle's proximity to Henley Park is one of its biggest drawcards. The 13-hectare park includes multiple sports fields, two fenced playgrounds designed for various age groups, and Enfield Aquatic Centre, complete with Olympic-sized swimming pool.

The Carlyle is on track to welcome residents in early 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6667]

Joel Robinson

The Carlyle in Enfield launches to undersupplied Inner West market

A new Metro stop, a thriving café scene, and proximity to village-style retail have cemented St Leonards as one of the Lower North Shore’s most sought-after suburbs for new development.

Among those seizing the opportunity is Sekisui House Australia, which has chosen this prized pocket, in the St Leonards South precinct, for its first-ever inner-city apartment project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/waterstone-st-leonards-24-berry-road-st-leonards-nsw-2065">Waterstone</a>.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134191 project_image_fid=230]

Set for completion in the summer of 2027, Waterstone comprises 207 apartments across five buildings, designed to look south back to the&nbsp;Sydney&nbsp;CBD.&nbsp;The new project offers residents the rare balance of connected urban living and tranquil green surrounds.

Just moments from home lies Smoothey Park, a blend of natural bushland and manicured parkland. It forms part of the Wollstonecraft cluster of reserves, including Gore Cove, Badangi Reserve, and Berry Island, all offering peaceful escapes on the Harbour’s edge.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KCD5mtyKBjc?si=DcC6Koxg6shdDFzq" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

When it comes to lifestyle, St Leonards and its neighbouring suburbs, Crows Nest, Waverton, Greenwich, and Wollstonecraft, deliver an endless array of cafés, restaurants, and boutique retailers. Nearby Mall 88, only 650 metres from Waterstone, adds convenience with over 30 specialty stores.

Connectivity is another major drawcard. The new Crows Nest Metro Station is just one kilometre away, while St Leonards Train Station is a short seven-minute walk. For a more scenic commute, the Greenwich Point Wharf ferry reaches Circular Quay in under 30 minutes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134191 project_image_fid=351953]

For peace of mind, Royal North Shore Hospital, one of Sydney’s most prominent medical hubs, sits just 650 metres away, making Waterstone ideal for healthcare professionals or residents seeking easy access to world-class medical facilities.

Perfectly positioned on the fringe of vibrant activity yet embraced by parkland serenity, Waterstone offers the best of both worlds in Sydney’s evolving Lower North Shore.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134191]

Urban Editorial

Nature and connection define life at Waterstone in emerging St Leonards South precinct

A new collection of residences is now available at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/sol-by-walker-maroochydore-first-avenue-maroochydore-qld-4558">SOL by Walker</a>, the residential development that continues to take shape within the Maroochydore City Centre.

The second release introduces 137 apartments to the market, adding to the growing community in what is set to become one of South East Queensland’s most significant urban renewal precincts. The new offering includes a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, alongside a limited number of terraces and penthouses designed to suit a range of lifestyle needs.

“SOL represents the beginning of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/maroochydore-qld-4558">Maroochydore</a>’s exciting next chapter, redefining expectations around life in this beautiful coastal city,” David Gallant, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/walker-corporation">Walker Corporation</a>, said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=147777 project_image_fid=319853]

Located on South Sea Islander Way, SOL forms part of the broader vision to deliver a connected and vibrant city heart for the Sunshine Coast. Construction is already underway on the first 19-storey tower, with completion targeted for early 2028. The development is being delivered by Walker in collaboration with Sunshine Coast Council and SunCentral.

SOL’s second stage continues the project’s focus on high-quality apartment living, with access to a suite of resident-only amenities including a rooftop sky terrace, wellness retreat, co-working lounge, gym and landscaped garden spaces.

Interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> combine timeless design with natural materials, generous layouts and panoramic outlooks to the ocean, hinterland and river.&nbsp;

“SOL by Walker establishes a new standard in apartment quality, seamlessly integrating superior craftsmanship with unmatched design,” Danny Juric, Director at Plus Studio, said

[smartcode_project:default project_id=147777 project_image_fid=346899]

Apartments feature open-plan layouts with high ceilings and expansive glazing to enhance natural light and ventilation.&nbsp;

A warm, neutral palette ties together stone benchtops, brushed platinum accents, and sandstone-toned carpet, while large sliding doors connect living areas to generous outdoor spaces.&nbsp;

Kitchens are fitted with integrated Miele appliances, refined cabinetry and thoughtful storage, while bathrooms offer double vanities and oversized showers to balance function and comfort.

As part of the Sunshine Coast’s new CBD, residents will be within walking distance of local retail, dining and green space, with transport connections set to expand as the precinct grows. Once complete, Maroochydore City Centre is expected to deliver thousands of new homes as part of the region’s long-term housing strategy.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=147777]

Second release at SOL by Walker expands residential offering in Maroochydore City Centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mirvac">Mirvac</a> has marked the topping out of Prince &amp; Parade in Brunswick, celebrating the completion of the building’s highest point and a major step forward for one of the developer’s landmark Melbourne communities.

The milestone forms part of Mirvac’s strong construction momentum across Victoria, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/prince-parade-by-mirvac-brunswick-701-park-street-brunswick-vic-3056">Prince &amp; Parade</a> and The Albertine both recently reaching structural completion. Together, the two projects will deliver 265 new apartments, contributing to much-needed housing supply in Melbourne’s inner suburbs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4802 project_image_fid=3627]

Designed in collaboration with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bates-smart">Bates Smart</a>, Prince &amp; Parade continues a long-standing partnership that has delivered The Melburnian (2002) and The Eastbourne (2019).

The new <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/brunswick-vic-3056">Brunswick</a> address comprises a mix of one to four-bedroom residences complemented by extensive amenity, including a residents’ lounge, shared dining room and kitchen, library, yoga room, gym, and rooftop terrace, with landscaping by Jack Merlo and a concierge service.

Construction is rapidly transforming the site, with significant milestones achieved across two buildings, supported by 73 slab pours and six fully constructed building cores. Completion is expected in 2026.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4802 project_image_fid=269383]

Mirvac’s General Manager, Residential Development Victoria, Elysa Anderson said Prince &amp; Parade has been strongly received by buyers seeking quality design and trusted delivery.

“These communities have been well received, attracting strong interest from downsizers and professionals who value high-quality design, premium locations and the confidence of buying with Mirvac,” Anderson said.

Prince &amp; Parade has also achieved a record-breaking apartment sale in Brunswick, underscoring its design quality and market appeal.

“We’re incredibly proud to see Prince &amp; Parade set a new benchmark for Brunswick. This <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/exclusive-mirvac-breaks-brunswick-record-with-prince-parade-sale">record-breaking sale</a> is a testament to Mirvac’s design excellence, quality craftsmanship, and our strong reputation for delivering high-quality residential communities across the country,” Anderson said.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4802]

Prince & Parade tops out in Brunswick as Mirvac marks dual Melbourne milestones

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mirvac">Mirvac</a> has celebrated the topping out of The Albertine, marking the completion of the 14-storey structure on the edge of Melbourne’s CBD and signalling strong progress across the developer’s Victorian pipeline.

The milestone forms part of Mirvac’s $7.4 billion Victorian development portfolio, which includes both residential and mixed-use projects such as Prince &amp; Parade in Brunswick, which also reached its highest point recently, and Trielle at Yarra’s Edge, scheduled to top out in early 2026

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138659 project_image_fid=294831]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-albertine-by-mirvac-melbourne-31-queens-lane-melbourne-vic-3004">The Albertine</a> offers one to four-bedroom residences complemented by exclusive resident-only amenity, including The Circadian Club, a wellness centre with an indoor pool and spa, gym, yoga and Pilates studio, and sauna, as well as The Elysian Room, a private dining space on level 10 with sweeping views across Melbourne.

Since construction began in August last year, up to 240 workers have been on site daily, pouring 7,000 cubic metres of concrete across 72 pours and installing more than 1,000 tonnes of steel reinforcement to bring the project to this landmark moment.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138659 project_image_fid=4353]

Mirvac’s CEO, Development – Residential and Commercial Mixed Use, Stuart Penklis said the achievement highlights Mirvac’s design quality and sustained delivery across Melbourne.

“We are proud to be delivering The Albertine and Prince &amp; Parade, two projects that embody Mirvac’s design excellence, commitment to quality, and focus on creating homes that connect people to their communities," Penklis said.

"With cranes rising high across Melbourne, Mirvac’s residential pipeline is moving strongly, and these milestones are a testament to that momentum."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138659 project_image_fid=294826]

Penklis added that Mirvac’s growing portfolio demonstrates its commitment to providing diverse housing options across Victoria.

“We have recently opened our third build-to-rent community in Melbourne, LIV Albert at Brunswick, our fifth nationally, which together with our master-planned communities ensures that we are providing a full spectrum of housing options to Victorians.

Completion of The Albertine is expected in 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=138659]

The Albertine reaches its highest point on Melbourne’s city fringe

Residential Property

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The prime residential forecasts for the 30 cities in Savills World Cities Prime Residential Index highlight the strength of prime residential property.

Average growth for the cities in the index is forecast at 1.6% for 2021. Sentiment is improving as the rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine begins in many countries and, despite the uncertainties which still linger, prime residential property is expected to remain an active market.

The resilience of prime residential markets was highlighted during the second half of 2020. Savills World Cities Prime Residential Index recorded an average increase of 0.8% for the cities in the index at a time when global GDP is recovering from the impact of Covid-19 and subsequent lockdowns.

Many of the factors which helped drive the prime residential market in the second half of 2020 are expected to continue into 2021, including low stock levels in some locations and the desire for more space.

Historically low interest rates, which are expected to remain low for some time, also make the sector attractive for wealth preservation. These factors, and the sector’s strong fundamentals, mean positive price growth is expected in 19 cities, compared with nine that are expected to see small price falls.

<img alt="" height="636" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/savills_world_performance_2021.jpg" width="1200">

Source: Savills Research

<h2>The high fliers: +6%</h2>

Of the cities in the Savills World Cities Prime Residential Index, Seoul saw the strongest growth during 2020 with prices increasing 8.6%. This strong performance is expected to continue over the coming year. The market remains on an upward trend, driven by high demand from historically low interest rates, strong economic performance and short supply.

Berlin and Sydney are the next strongest performers. The German capital has been on an upward trend with high levels of demand that exceed supply. Sydney has seen comparatively weaker performance in recent years but is expected to improve in 2021 as economic activity picks up.

<h2>The strong contenders: +4-6%</h2>

Guangzhou is expected to see the highest growth out of the Chinese cities in the index over the coming year. The city is benefitting from urban regeneration projects as well as its proximity to comparatively higher-valued Shenzhen.

In the USA, as with many Western markets, the search for more space was a pandemic-driven trend during 2020. This is expected to continue over the coming year, benefiting cities that offer space, such as Miami.

Miami also has particularly attractive tax advantages. Should the rise in remote working continue, those who no longer need to stay in one location for work may find Miami appealing.

Mumbai has seen stamp duty changes over the past year. The forecast growth in Mumbai, driven by the stamp duty reduction and low mortgage rates, follows price falls due to an oversupply.

<h2>The steady cities: &gt;0-4%</h2>

Despite the headwinds of 2020, supply remains a significant influencer of price movements. Many cities that expected to see positive growth of up to 4% in 2021 are markets characterised by low supply levels, e.g. San Francisco, Amsterdam and Tokyo.

London’s prime market is expected to see a turnaround, with forecast growth underpinned by the value on offer compared with its peak in 2014.

The Chinese cities of Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Beijing are expected to see growth of between 0% and 4%. These markets have performed well in 2020 as economic activity returned. Residential is seen as a safe investment, which is expected to continue in 2021. Beijing has a slightly weaker forecast than the other cities in China due to heavy local regulation.

<h2>A softening of prices: -2-0%</h2>

Some prime residential markets are more reliant on international demand than others. For these markets, travel restrictions have hindered performance during the past year. While vaccine news does bolster optimism for the return of travel, a number of markets that are driven by international demand, including Dubai, Kuala Lumpur and Lisbon, are expected to see a slight softening of prices over the coming year. Lower international demand is also expected to impact the prime market in Paris.

A weaker economic environment is expected to impede growth in a number of cities in Southern Europe, including Milan, Rome, Barcelona and Madrid, while oversupply also continues to play a role for a few cities in this price growth tier, namely Bangkok and Dubai.

<h2>Down, but not out: &lt;-2%</h2>

In Hong Kong, the highest valued city in our index, prices have been impacted by political uncertainty. Prime values are expected to continue their downward trend over the coming year.

New York’s prime market has been on a downward trend in recent years due to oversupply. The pandemic has also caused a temporary move away from densely populated urban living – whether this becomes a long-term trend, however, still remains to be seen.

Sean Hyett is an analyst for Savills World Research
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Sydney forecast to sit among the 2021 residential high fliers: Savills

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EXPERT INSIGHT

This year has been a rollercoaster for residential values, from January onward the market began to rally off the back of some political and financial certainty in Q3/Q4 2019.

This ended abruptly at the beginning of lockdowns as we saw prices decline seemingly 10-15% overnight.

Once restrictions were lifted, buyer sentiment and demand returned to near pre-lockdown levels while the number of properties on the market remained considerably less than comparable months in previous years.

Low stock levels meant that there was a shift in the supply/demand dynamic which is now weighted toward larger dwellings as buyers' value usable space more than ever.

With stronger demand per property some local markets saw houses sell for record highs towards the end of 2020, surpassing previous peaks set in 2017. The apartment market has not been as lucky due to other external factors that appear to have stagnated prices however for the most part, this segment of the market has remained stable since restrictions were eased.  

Over the year we also saw a sharp decline in rents which has meant less investors were actively looking at residential property due to lower yields. What we are now seeing is a steady return of investors to the market due to the poor performance of cash so while yields may have declined, the net position of many investors remains relative due to lower borrowing costs.  

Next year the following changes are proposed to take place which will have significant impact on the local residential property market:

Changes to the National Consumer Credit Protection Act - 1 March 2021 
While it won't quite be like the old days when you would walk into a bank and walk out with a loan approval, one of the legislative frameworks that banks work within and are held to account will be eased. This is proposed to shift the balance of responsible lending from lender back to consumer which will have interesting effects, one of which we will likely see is an increase in borrowing in affordable markets where access to credit has previously not been possible or too expensive. Is a bubble coming, maybe, all we know for sure is that there will be more money in the market which will likely lead to price growth. 

COVID-19 Vaccine - First half 2021 
Many industries and local businesses seem to be almost back to normal (apart from distancing measures) so while we are able to live and operate locally without a vaccine, the news is welcomed and will give certainty to businesses and consumers who will be able to forward plan and travel internationally. To give you an understanding of one of the biggest impacts a vaccine will have, International tourism in Australia is a ~50 Billion dollar industry that is currently non-operational. 

Changes to stamp duty in NSW - Second half 2021 
The formula of how the new duty will be accrued is yet to be determined and this will impact the feasibility of a more transactional property market, however the reform in principle has been welcomed by both potential buyers and sellers. As always, time will tell, however we expect to see this enable the business of real estate manage cashflow better (developers, investors etc.) which will create additional activity and subsequently increase prices with competition.

Overall, in 2021 it will be a good year to own residential property, I expect the detached dwelling market to continue to outperform others in inner suburbs while we will likely see a renaissance in off-the-plan sales as investors and first home buyers begin competing for the same stock, leaving a hole in the market and pushing up prices making currently held development sites more feasible.

Chris Orr is the director of residential at Savills Australia
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This year has been a rollercoaster for residential values, from January onward the market began to rally off the back of some political and financial certainty in Q3/Q4 2019.

2021 will be a good year to own residential property: Savills director of residential Chris Orr

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<div>Sydney house prices rose by a more sedate +3.2% in the September quarter to be up by +21.7% over the year to a median price of $1,032,422 reported Domain.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This followed on from a much faster +8.4% boom in Sydney house prices over the June quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney's median unit price increased by a little over $10,000 to $673,182 over the September quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile, Brisbane's median house price increased from $493,227 to $497,143 over the three months to September.</div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Sydney boom slows in Q3: Pete Wargent

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Median prices and price indexes are very blunt instruments for measuring real estate markets.
When it comes to charting what’s happening in property markets, price data is a long way behind the game and prone to all kinds of statistical absurdities.
Price statistics are part of a chain reaction which means most investors get into markets too late to buy well. After something fundamental changes in a market, causing activity to start rising, it can be six months before it starts to be reflected in prices and even longer before it comes to attention of consumers via the media.
If you’re reading there’s a price boom somewhere, you’ve already missed the best time to purchase by at least 12 months. But that’s the signal that sparks most investors into action.
Fortunately, there’s a better way.
It’s one of clear patterns of real estate that changes in sales activity translates into price reactions, all other things being equal. It’s sounds simplistic but it’s not - it’s merely simple. There’s a correlation between sales volumes and prices rises/falls. But the change in activity comes first and the price reaction follows later.
So there are plenty of lessons to be seen in what’s happening to sales activity in major markets around the country.
Our latest edition of The Price Predictor Index shows quite starkly how much the Sydney and Melbourne markets have declined in terms of activity. 
Boom markets seldom extend beyond three years and Sydney’s cycle has inevitably passed its peak and turned south. The vast Sydney metropolitan area, with over 700 suburbs, is bereft of suburbs with forward momentum. Many suburbs now display patterns of sharply declining sales levels – and many of those areas are now experiencing price stagnation or decline.
Melbourne has followed Sydney into the post-boom phase of the property cycle. There has been a marked downturn in the number of growth suburbs in the Greater Melbourne area, down from 105 in our previous quarterly survey to 28. Most of the ranked suburbs now have Plateau markets (sales tapering off at levels below their peak).
While Melbourne generally is fading, one region that continues to pump is the Mornington Peninsula LGA. Bayside suburbs at opposite ends of the price spectrum - Rosebud West (median house price $425,000) and Sorrento ($900,000), and several others in between - have markets where sales activity is rising steadily.
Meanwhile, the City of Greater Geelong is the No.1 market in Victoria. It has plenty of upwardly-mobile suburbs, more than any other LGA in the state and fourth best in the nation (behind three municipalities in South-East Queensland). A standout feature is the growing sales activity in cheaper suburbs such as Norlane, Corio, Belmont and Clifton Springs. This doesn’t surprise, as Geelong thrives on being an affordable alternative to Melbourne.
Torquay on the Surf Coast south of Geelong and the towns of the Bass Coast LGA - including Inverloch, Wonthaggi and Cowes – are also travelling well.
Meanwhile, and this will surprise many people, Adelaide ranks as the leading capital city market now. It has more suburbs with rising sales activity (47) than all other cities. Brisbane is the only serious challenger, with 41 growth suburbs. 
Adelaide’s No.1 municipality is the Port Adelaide Enfield LGA. This is one of the largest municipalities in Adelaide, covering the inner north and north-west of the city. Eight suburbs in this LGA have forward momentum, mostly suburbs with median house prices in the range from $380,000 to $510,000. They include Broadview, Northgate, Windsor Gardens and Largs Bay. 
Also chugging along nicely is the City of Charles Sturt, one of those solid middle-market areas that have strong property markets amid the steady rise of Adelaide.
The Charles Sturt LGA includes bayside suburbs west of the Adelaide CBD, including rising markets such as Henley Beach (median house price $690,000) and Henley Beach South ($830,000), as well as some more affordable locations such as Findon ($475,000), Kidman Park ($555,000), Semaphore Park ($480,000) and Seaton ($455,000).
Brisbane and South-East Queensland still have good activity happening. The Gold Coast remains the No.1 municipality in the nation in terms of the number of suburbs with growing sales activitity and the No.2 and No.2 LGAs in that regard are found in the Brisbane metropolitan area. 
The Greater Brisbane area has a smaller number of growth markets than three months ago, but remains considerably stronger than Sydney and Melbourne. Its leading precincts are two fringe areas on the periphery of the metropolitan area – the Moreton Bay Region in the far north and Logan City in the far south. This suggests the Brisbane cycle is at or close to its peak. But, for now, it remains one of the strongest cities.
The other standout city is Hobart. The last time Hobart captured the national imagination for property investment was in 2003/2004. Most the intervening period has been characterised by economic and population stagnation and an enduring status as the basket case of the national economy.
But all that has changed. Tasmania is a contender again and this has translated into rising performance in the Hobart property market. Sales numbers are up, prices and rents are responding, and investors are starting to take action.
It helps that Hobart has the lowest prices, high rental yields and lowest vacancies among the eight capital cities.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

The correlation between property sales volumes and prices rises: Terry Ryder

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At long last, I can say that Perth has moved into a recovery phase, after four tough years.
For the past 12-18 months, many industry people with a vested interest have been trying to talk up the market, creating false dawns of market revival.
I’ve been awaiting clear evidence and a month ago I wrote: “I continue to seek confirmation that the worst has passed for the Western Australia economy and the Perth residential property market. There are growing signs that this is the case.”
Now, having completed the research for the Winter Edition of The Predictor Price Index, I feel confident to confirm that Perth is over the worst and is on the way back.
The research found something that’s been missing from the Perth market for the past few years: suburbs where sales activity is growing and there are some prospects for prices to stop falling.
Our latest survey identified 12 growth markets, a rising number of suburbs with consistent sales and fewer “danger markets”. This is the best result for Perth since mid-2015.
Four precincts dominate this brighter picture of the Perth market: the Wanneroo and Joondalup LGAs in the far north and two solid middle-market areas, the Stirling and Melville LGAs.
Wanneroo is the standout location in the current Perth, providing four of the 12 suburbs with rising markets - Alkimos, Carramar, Clarkson and Yanchep.
Another northern precinct, the LGA of Joondalup, has been the steadiest area of Perth during the downturn and it continues to show solidity. It has seven suburbs with consistent sales rates - including Duncraig, Heathridge, Joondalup, Ocean Reef and Kingsley - while Sorrento is now a growth market in this precinct.
The municipality of Stirling stands out for sterling performance in the downturn. Two suburbs have rising markets - Carine and Innaloo - while this LGA has eight suburbs with consistent sales.
Another leader of Perth’s fightback is the Melville LGA in the southern suburbs. Both Kardinya and Leeming now have increasing sales activity, while four other suburbs are consistent performers.
Suburbs which have maintained solid sales rates amid the prolonged downturn across the Perth metropolitan area are noteworthy. They include Claremont, which has recorded between 55 and 67 sales every quarter for the past three years. Hamilton Hill has delivered between 58 and 69 sales every quarter for three years, while Willeton has managed between 80 and 88 sales, quarter after quarter, in the same time frame.
Another positive sign for Perth is the reduction in the number of danger markets (where sales activity has dropped to levels well below what might be considered acceptable in a “normal” market).
If the current trend continues, danger markets may disappear from the Perth property scene later in the year.
The existing declining markets are spread across the Perth metro area, but the area of greatest concern remains the inner-city precinct dominated by apartments.
These locations have high vacancies at a time when sales activity is still trending down. The worst-placed markets are East Perth, central Perth and Como.
The vacancy rate is 5% or higher in these locations and sales are well below the levels of a “normal” market. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Perth residential property market moves into recovery phase

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released housing finance data for August 2015 earlier this week.  
The data broadly showed a further pick-up in owner occupier lending and a slowing in investor lending. It is important to reconcile this against numerous reports that many mortgagees have been quick to advise their lenders that their properties which were formerly investment properties are now in fact owner occupied. 
This is due to the fact that most lenders are now charging a premium for investment mortgages.
<a href="/images/2015/10/09/Chart-11.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/09/Chart-11.jpg" alt="">
 
The above chart details the components of those borrowing over time. What’s immediately noticeable is that while there has been a recent surge in lending to investors, over recent months there has been a clear fall in lending to this cohort. 
While investment lending is slowing, owner occupier lending is rising however, there has been very little bounce in lending to first home buyers. For the most part the rise in owner occupier lending is being fuelled by an escalation in both refinances and borrowing for new loans to non-first home buyers. Again, it is important to note some of these figure may be being affected by re-classifications of mortgages.
<a href="/images/2015/10/09/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-09%20at%203.59.33%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/09/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-09%20at%203.59.33%20PM.png" alt="" width="785" height="305"> 
In August 2015, owner occupiers committed to $20.8 billion worth of housing finance, a 6.1% rise over the month and a 26.5% year-on-year rise.  Looking at the components of owner occupier lending there was $1.7 billion in lending for construction of dwellings, $1.2 billion in lending for purchase of new dwellings, $6.4 billion in refinances of established dwellings and $11.5 billion for purchase of other established dwellings. 
The 6.1% monthly rise in owner occupier lending was largely fuelled by a 10.4% rise in lending for purchase of established dwellings however, each component rose.  Refinances have typically been the greatest source of growth in owner occupier lending however, they recorded the slowest growth of any segment over the month.  Looking at year-on-year changes, lending for construction of dwellings rose 0.5%, lending for purchase of new dwellings rose 17.6%, refinances of established dwellings rose 26.7% and purchase of established dwellings increased by 32.6%.  
Over the coming months we will be watching closely to see whether the growth in owner occupier lending can be maintained, particularly in the face of falling population growth and no real increase in activity from first home buyers.
<a href="/images/2015/10/09/Chart-31.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/09/Chart-31.jpg" alt="">
 
Switching the focus to the investor segment, there was $13.6 billion worth of commitments to investors in August 2015. The value of lending to investors was -0.4% lower over the month but 12.0% higher year-on-year. It was also the first time in 13 months that the value of new lending (excluding refinances) was greater to owner occupiers than it was to investors.
Over the month there was $0.8 billion in lending for construction of dwellings and $12.7 billion in lending for established housing. Over the month, lending for construction of dwellings fell -22.0% while commitments for established housing rose 1.4%. Year-on-year lending for construction of new homes is -2.5% lower and lending for established homes is 13.1% higher.
The data appears to indicate that there is a change occurring in the mortgage lending market. Whereas investors and owner occupier refinances have been the primary drivers of growth lately, it seems as if this is now tilting to owner occupier new loans starting to dominate. Given that investment mortgages generally now have a higher interest rate than owner occupier mortgages, it may be playing a role in the tilt towards owner occupier lending. 
Furthermore, value growth has been strong for more than three years in Sydney and Melbourne and investors may be becoming concerned about the longevity of the boom while growth outside of these cities has been sedate. 
Once you also consider a record high pipeline of residential construction accompanied by a record low rate of rental growth and historical low yields perhaps a growing number of investors are looking towards other forms of investment they perceive as less risky at this stage in cycle. It’s still early days for the slowdown in investment lending but we, along with the RBA and APRA, will be watching closely to see whether the slowing in investment lending and the rise in owner occupier lending persists over the coming months. 
It is also going to be interesting to see what impact this has on overall demand for housing over the coming months in lights of evidence of a bit of a softening in the Sydney housing market.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Owner occupier housing finance commitments take a step up: Cameron Kusher

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Australia’s first Living Building Challenge design competition will be the first in the world to focus on a retail centre: Frasers Property Australia’s Brickworks retail project in Melbourne’s Burwood East.
The Brickworks Living Building Challenge design competition, run by the Living Future Institute of Australia with Principal Partner Frasers Property Australia, aims to explore the boundaries of sustainable design within the retail environment and redefine ‘best practice’ for the sector.
It is calling for designers, professionals, environmental experts, students and others to submit ideas for the retail centre, which Frasers Property Australia will develop within a wider masterplan for the site in the near future.
For more information, download our eBook <a href="http://propertyobserver.com.au/forward-planning/tools/ebooks-and-webinars/52152-australia-aspires-to-global-green-leadership-the-living-building-challenge" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Australia’s first Living Building Challenge design competition 

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Earlier this week I was sitting amid 30-degree heat in South-east Queensland, noting that some parts of Australia had 40 degrees and others had 20, while speaking by phone to a Tasmanian friend who had just lit a fire amid wintry conditions.
Imagine our reaction if a TV weather presenter took an average of weather conditions around the nation and announced that “the temperature in Australia today was 25 degrees”.
Clearly that would be ludicrous. But every day in media, economists and other commentators take that kind of position on residential real estate. They reduce this very large and diverse nation to a single market to be described by a single figure: “Australia house prices rose 8 percent in the past 12 months.”
From that one figure which so inaccurately describes Australian residential property, they will extrapolate myriad conclusions: there’s a national property boom, prices are too high, there’s a real estate bubble in Australia, the nation is vulnerable and young people are being left behind.
The big-name ratings agencies like Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s take it a big stride further. They will access narrow data from a single source, often based on a single month’s alleged price movements, and use that to justify a press statement warning about “Australian house prices” getting out of hand.
Moody’s recently dashed off a media release warning that “resurgent housing prices” in Australia were eroding affordability, because “housing prices had risen 2.7 percent across Australia” in September. But prices hadn’t increased across Australia – the average for the capital cities had risen that much, according to one source, whose figures were contradicted by several other sources – not forgetting the notoriously erratic nature of month-to-month changes which are ignored by credible researchers. 
The lack of expertise and sophistication evident in these statements is quite startling, given the lofty reputations of the big brand-name entities making them. It really is very flimsy analysis and shallow behaviour, based not on a desire to inform but on a need to generate publicity. 
I had a call earlier this week from an ACT-based journalist wanting to discuss the market in Canberra which, he said, was going crazy “like everywhere else in Australia”. We’re entitled to expect people paid to write about real estate to have better knowledge than that. Everywhere is not going crazy in real estate and certainly Canberra is not (annual house price growth averages around 4 percent, according to three major research entities).
But that’s a common assessment I hear from all kinds of people daily. Many Australians really do believe what they read and hear: that there’s a national property boom, that prices are through the roof everywhere and no one can afford to buy.
I fear for consumers making big financial decisions based on such skinny knowledge, while wading through a sea of misinformation.
The different scenarios being played out in the thousands of markets around the country include a small number of strongly rising ones, a far greater number of mediocre ones, some with prices going backwards and a few where the local market has crashed.
Economists clearly believe there’s a national boom because interest rates are at record lows and that, in their minds, means real estate should be rising everywhere. And therefore it is.
But it isn’t. And that reality would suggest to an inquiring mind that the level of interest rates perhaps is not the over-riding factor.
In my view, the most significant factors are the underlying local economic conditions and the level of spending on infrastructure.
It is not coincidence that the No.1 ranked economy is NSW and that the city with the biggest infrastructure spend, by a wide margin, is Sydney. That’s been the case for the past three years, a time during which most markets across metropolitan Sydney have had strong price growth.
The No.2 ranked economy is Victoria, helped by strong population growth, and the infrastructure spend is reasonable, though well below Sydney’s. Not coincidentally, Melbourne has been the second strongest city market on price growth, though at levels well below the genuine boom levels of 2001-02-03.
The economies impacting Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra and Hobart have largely been mediocre and infrastructure spending has been relatively weak in recent years. That’s reflected in the absence of price growth to match Sydney’s.
It is, again, not coincidence that the recent rise of prospects for Hobart real estate has happened alongside an improving state economy and sharply rising spending on infrastructure in Tasmania. 
Adelaide, too, is showing signs of an improving market, supported by solid economic and real estate indicators and significantly rising spending on infrastructure.
Meanwhile, Western Australia now ranks in CommSec’s State of the States report as the worst economy in the land and Perth has the weakest of the city real estate markets. The Northern Territory is also faltering and Darwin’s property market is in a similar condition to Perth’s. Prices in both cities have been going backwards for three years and record low interest rates have not helped them.
Beyond the capital cities, there are multiple different scenarios in the many thousands of different markets.
Some, including regional centres close to Sydney, have had periods of solid price growth. Others, like both the Gold and Sunshine Coasts in Queensland, have had elevated activity without yet delivering major price escalation 
Most regional markets, however, have been walking rather than running – and several, notably those impacted by the resources sector, have experienced significant decline.
We’re a massive nation and the real estate conditions are as diverse as the range of temperatures you’ll see on a weather map on the evening television news.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Most regional markets walking rather than running

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It's pretty much a given that if you are developing property, then you will encounter problems.
Over time, I've learnt how to deal with these fun little things that crop up. They used to stress me out and ruin my day, I found myself naturally wanting to jump into action to solve the problem as quickly as possible.
But I've learnt over time to sit with it.
Mulling the problem over from different angles allows other options to come up. This process doesn't need too much time, but sometime it needs a different perspective.
One problem-solving technique you should master as a property developer  is changing perspectives to redefine the problem.
Here's an example.
We received our builder's quote on a multi unit development project and it came in a bit higher than we estimated.
Our client had requested some specific detail in the exterior design that had an impact on the cost that posed risk of over capitalising.
Rather than do the obvious which would be to pare back the design and remove the expensive items, I sat with the issue for a day. We were looking at it from two clear perspectives; cost and design. But were there other perspectives to consider? Yes.
Another perspective I looked at was yield or return. Was the design items going to impact on the end use? Who was the end user?
In this case, it was a tenant because our client was building to hold and lease. One of our goals was to optimise the rental return. Would the upgrade bring in more rent? To be honest, no. The upgrade may make the dwelling a little more appealing but the bottom line was it wouldn't increase the yield.
Another important perspective for Property Bloom was to make our client happy. Whilst our job is to ensure the most efficient outcome, we also want our clients to feel they've participated in the process, if that is important to them - it may not be to some clients but it is to others.
 Our solution was to look at other areas of the development that we could save costs on. We were able to simplify the roof design without any considerable difference in appearance and no difference in function. So the cost savings in the roof trusses and materials allowed us to spend on the upgrades our client really wanted.
Our solution to the problem didn't compromise the project but in fact, enhanced it.
A little perspective can go a long way. 
 
Jo Chivers is chief executive officer of property development project managers <a href="https://www.propertybloom.com.au/about" target="_blank">Property Bloom</a>.
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Solving a property development problem using perspective: Jo Chivers

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I almost choked on my fresh brew of coffee as I read what I and the local agents consider to be low rental data reports, shared last week.
I do completely understand that the author is relying on data provided by Domain head-office; nevertheless, the Domain figures are, in my opinion, far from the true reflection of the current rental market.
"Poles apart we may say..."
Real Data and live data is what is required now and in keeping with property investor demands and the financial institutions that rely on these. Most can’t and don’t have the resources to call and drive around Sydney, nor do they know where to look.
"Relying on property portal listings by agencies; is definitely fraught with  danger..." 
The following reported numbers are what I believe reflect the true picture, one that will soon be the demise of many want-to-be investors and those that have this fear of missing out. 
NORTHMEAD NSW, 2152
Property portal shows: 34 units available for rent (21/6/2016)
Real Data: reveals closer to 260 units available
CANTERBURY NSW, 2193
Property portal showing: 98 units available for lease (21/6/2016)
Real Data: reveals 360 plus units now on the market for lease. 
PARRAMATTA NSW, 2150
Property portal showing: 217 units available for lease (21/6/2016)
* ONLY A WEEK AGO THE PORTAL DATA REFLECTED "156 Vacancies." On their figures alone, this is an increase of approximately 30 percent in only a week.   
Real Data: reveals an estimated number closer to 900 units available for lease.
Warning and Tips
There are more apartment blocks under the final stages of completion. These will have occupation certificates within the next 2-3 months.  We estimate another 300-500 properties to roll onto the rental market in Parramatta in this time. 
The above mentioned manifestation,  is not confined to Western Sydney.  Many suburbs of Sydney are experiencing similar developments...
Real Data
Real Data is a compilation of information gathered from local area real estate agents, knowledge of buildings under construction and communication with the selling agents and property managers.
Real Data should serve as a warning to people looking to enter the property investment market in Sydney. In particular, people that are looking to purchase property off the plan and in newly built apartment blocks.
We recommend that the investor/property buyer, seeks local real estate advice and looks carefully at the local rental market return trends and availability. 
 
EDWIN ALMEIDA is licensee in charge of <a href="https://www.just-think.com.au/" target="_blank">Just Think Real Estate</a>.<a href="https://www.just-thin.com.au/"> </a>
He is also the creator of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/user/JustThinkProperty" target="_blank">Oz Real Estate.TV</a> and a presenter for <a href="https://propertyinvestingvault.com/" target="_blank">propertyinvestingvault.com</a>.
 
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