Following the proposal by the Minns Labor Government to rezone Parramatta Road to create up to 8,000 new homes, prominent developer Ceerose has gone to the NSW Gov to increase the density of its new mixed-use residential building in Leichhardt.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/ceerose">Ceerose</a>, founded by Edward Doueihi nearly three decades ago, has filed plans for 154 apartments above ground-floor retail at 307-315 Parramatta Road, a key corner site near Norton Street, the main high street strip in Leichhardt.

It's an upsize from the previously approved scheme of 63 apartments across a seven-storey building.

<img alt="Ceerose" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ba1ae75b-5f08-43fb-b8d5-3de6d9f6ef71" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-04%20at%2010.31.39%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=yA3hBBLPH4ev7MsAE0_hieXeqiFqBUb7" />

The project is being advanced through the State Significant Development (SSD) pathway, with concurrent rezoning sought to facilitate the proposal. The 10-storey development would rise over a four-level basement and deliver two retail tenancies, one a larger-format offering and the other a smaller “hole in the wall” space, addressing the Parramatta Road frontage. 21 of the apartments are dedicated as affordable housing.

According to the Urban Design Report by Architecture AND, the scheme includes a podium and tower configuration, with a fine-grain, two-storey parapet street wall that references the traditional shopfront rhythm along the corridor. “An elegant tower form is proposed, combined with a characterful two storey frontage... articulating it as two related buildings, providing consistency with the rhythm and grain of Parramatta Road,” the report notes.

The residential component is split across two slender towers set back from the street edge, a design move aimed at preserving solar access and reducing perceived bulk. This massing strategy also seeks to improve residential amenity by focusing scale toward the quieter northern interface, away from Parramatta Road’s noise and pollution.

<img alt="Ceerose" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="347f2f8f-5d36-4388-b40a-2e77380b9c19" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-04%20at%2010.31.02%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=xvyUE2ujT1lzivXTo.mHBJFF4SmfgLtz" />

Architecture AND has worked with Ceerose on previous Inner West projects, and cites a deep familiarity with the local character. Their design draws heavily on context, heritage, and sunlight access considerations, and engages with the Inner West Council’s “Our Fairer Future” strategic planning framework.

The site spans 2,712 sqm and is located near key intersections with Catherine Street, Hay Street, and Redmond Street. It adjoins a public carpark to the north and is within walking distance of Stanmore and Petersham stations. It is also flagged in state and local planning strategies, including the Parramatta Road Corridor Urban Transformation Strategy, as a suitable candidate for increased density.

Ceerose recently completed The Alex Collective on McEvoy Street in Alexandria, Abbie's Lane in Annandale, and the award-winning Munro House in Elizabeth Bay.

The Parramatta Road corridor is coming to life with the proposed rezoning which is serviced by a significant number of bus, light rail and train routes.

Deicorp is progressing with its $1.8 billion <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kings-bay-village-five-dock-53-75-queens-road-five-dock-nsw-2046">Kings Bay Village</a> precinct on Parramatta Road in Five Dock, as is <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/toga-to-push-on-with-five-dock-mixed-use-masterplan">TOGA further down the street</a>. Those two projects alone will bring nearly 2,000 new homes to Parramatta Road.

Joel Robinson

First look: Ceerose plots mixed-use Leichhardt development on Parramatta Road

North Sydney's landmark 'SBS Building' on Alfred Street is set to be demolished to make way for a new mixed-use residential tower in the booming North Sydney.

Commercial property group FiveX is behind the plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/275-alfred-street-north-north-sydney-nsw-2060">39-storey tower</a>, the latest project to advance under the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

They are proposing 184 apartments above retail spaces, which will replace the existing 20-storey commercial building. FiveX was set up more than five decades ago by Joshua and Marko Berger. It is currently led by Joshua's son Lesli.&nbsp;

<img alt="First look: Fivex plans 39-storey residential tower at 275 Alfred Street, North Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2efa0980-53fa-4cca-9f9e-9c3c845d4746" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29%20%281%29_0.png?VersionId=y_YyPMq3NQLfYRs84pP4os9UgWiMLp75" />

According to the Architectural Design Report by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fjc-studio">FJC Studio</a>, the slender tower form has been deliberately designed to respect the site's transitional setting at the southern gateway to the North Sydney CBD, where high-rise towers give way to lower-scale residential precincts.

"The slender tower form and articulated podium establish a respectful relationship with nearby heritage and low rise buildings, including the Whaling Road Heritage Conservation Area,” the architecture firm noted, adding that the tower “completes a missing link in the urban fabric” while enhancing the Alfred Street streetscape.

The proposed building will include a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments, with 15 percent of the gross residential floor area allocated as affordable housing. There is an agreement already in place that those apartments will be managed by Evolve Housing.

The project aligns with broader state housing objectives, including the National Housing Accord target of delivering 1.2 million new homes by 2029. The Scoping Report filed with the State Significant Development Application (SSDA) suggests the site "presents no impediments to rapid delivery,” with construction able to commence within 12 months of receiving consent.

North Sydney has been one of the most popular suburbs in Sydney for new and off the plan apartment development, but hasn't had the supply to keep up with demand, until recently.

AURA by Aqualand was, for a long time, the only off the plan apartment building on the market. That completed last year, and has sold the majority of its 386 luxury apartments. Recently ALAND launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-walden-173-179-walker-street-north-sydney-nsw-2060">The Walden</a> on the same street, selling over $100 million within just a few hours of its launch, while developer CASA also launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-mclaren-north-sydney-45-mclaren-street-north-sydney-nsw-2060">The McLaren</a>&nbsp;in the same precinct.

First look: Fivex plans 39-storey residential tower in booming North Sydney

Kokoda Property Group has announced the Sydney-based Versatile Construction as the builder for its landmark $1.5 billion <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/teneriffe-banks-17-27-skyring-terrace-teneriffe-qld-4005">Teneriffe Banks</a> precinct.

Construction of the 17,612 sqm site is scheduled to commence in December 2025 and is expected to be delivered in stages from 2028. Once complete, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/teneriffe-banks-17-27-skyring-terrace-teneriffe-qld-4005">Teneriffe Banks</a> will comprise 212 residences across four architecturally distinct buildings, alongside Brisbane’s first Kimpton Hotel, extensive retail, hospitality, and wellness amenities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=139896 project_image_fid=295098]

Kokoda Property Group Founder and Managing Director, Mark Stevens, said appointing Versatile Construction marks a significant milestone for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/teneriffe-banks-17-27-skyring-terrace-teneriffe-qld-4005">Teneriffe Banks</a>.

“Partnering with Versatile Construction gives us confidence in delivering a precinct that sets a new benchmark for luxury living, curated experiences and vibrant riverfront activation," Stevens said.

"Together, we will bring the vision for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/teneriffe-banks-17-27-skyring-terrace-teneriffe-qld-4005">Teneriffe Banks</a> to life, creating a destination that residents and visitors will enjoy for generations."

Throughout the construction phase, more than 2,000 jobs will be created, supporting hundreds of local contractors and suppliers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=139896 project_image_fid=352274]

Marco Fahd, Chairman &amp; CEO at Versatile Group, said the company is looking forward to&nbsp;expanding their footprint in the state, taking on their inaugural project in Brisbane.

"We are proud of the unwavering commitment our team of experts have to quality and certainty in delivery and are excited to work with Kokoda to bring their vision for this unique project to life," Fahd says.

Sales reached $285 million on the launch of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/teneriffe-banks-17-27-skyring-terrace-teneriffe-qld-4005">Teneriffe Banks</a>, with sales momentum continuing to "exceed all expectations."

Stevens says the overwhelming response from buyers validated the group’s vision for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/teneriffe-banks-17-27-skyring-terrace-teneriffe-qld-4005">Teneriffe Banks</a>.

“The demand for a luxury product in this enclave has been extraordinary, we’ve never seen anything like it before. It reinforces everything we’re doing around quality, design, and creating genuine lifestyle precincts. Buyers are recognising the enduring value of Brisbane’s riverfront and are responding to the opportunity to live within a world-class destination that celebrates both place and lifestyle.”

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=139896]

Kokoda appoints builder for $1.5 billion Teneriffe Banks waterfront precinct

Castle Hill’s booming development market is set for another boost, with builder-developer Buildex proposing a new mid-rise apartment building near Castle Towers.

Buildex has submitted plans to The Hills Shire Council for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/197-old-northern-road-castle-hill-nsw-2154">nine-storey building comprising 57 apartments</a> on Old Northern Road. The company acquired two adjoining sites earlier this year, totalling more than 2,683 sqm.

Texco Design has prepared the scheme, which includes five one-bed plus study apartments, 37 two-bedrooms, and 15 three-bedrooms.

Castle Hill has become a hotspot for developers in recent years, undergoing significant transformation driven by the opening of the Hills Showground Precinct to development and the introduction of two metro stations servicing the suburb.

Developers including Deicorp and Kassis Homes have already completed projects, and are progressing future developments, while Meriton, Arada, and Ellipse are currently delivering new projects in the rapidly evolving area.

Staff Writer

First look: Buildex plans 57 apartments near Castle Towers

Gold Coast developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/immerse-projects">Immerse Projects</a>&nbsp;has unveiled what it intends to deliver at its recently acquired Toowong site, its debut apartment development in Brisbane.

Immerse, founded by John Kearney who is also the founder of regarded construction company Greyburn, secured the prime Sylvan Road site <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-immerse-projects-moves-into-brisbane-apartment-market-with-toowong-site-acquisition">earlier this year</a>, in an area which has historical significance to Kearney who&nbsp;studied at the nearby University of Queensland.

"It feels like a full circle moment," Kearney told&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/" target="">Apartments.com.au</a>.&nbsp;

“I spent many nights at the Regatta Hotel just down the road, as have most people in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/brisbane-qld" target="">Brisbane</a>. It’s one of the city’s most well-known hotels, and with several cafes, restaurants, and a CityCat stop nearby, it’s become an even more attractive place to live.”

He is planning a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/22-24-sylvan-road-toowong-qld-4066">15-storey project with 88 apartments</a> above an activated ground plane with a shop and hospitality spaces.

<img alt="Toowong podium" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c350436b-9d64-46cc-ab6f-defc009e1b65" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/podium_0.png?VersionId=zt7A0_14M62TkZ61YHnGmEck9KM9HqDA" />

The architecture, led by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, presents a tower massing that responds to the area's evolving mid-rise context. The scheme incorporates podium and rooftop communal spaces, while the commercial elements aim to activate the Sylvan Road frontage and enhance the site's interface with the adjacent parkland.&nbsp;

Landscaping plans by Ivy May Landscape Architects include subtropical planting and deep soil zones to support stormwater management and visual integration.

Supporting documentation from Mewing Planning Consultants notes that "the proposed development will deliver a mixed-use outcome that enhances the vibrancy of the Sylvan Road corridor" and highlights its proximity to high-frequency public transport and community facilities.

<img alt="First look: Immerse Projects moves into Brisbane apartment market with Toowong site acquisition" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/22-24%20Sylvan%20%20Rd%20Toowong_Markups.jpg?VersionId=u4_IGzpYLPFfAZSsgCZynov3bm7umwJ." />

&nbsp;

There's been little new apartment development in Toowong in recent years. The most notable is Consolidated Properties two-tower Monarch Residences, which is approaching completion with nearly all of its 224 residences sold.

Kearney describes&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066" target="">Toowong</a>&nbsp;as a suburb with real depth.

"The suburb attracts everyone, from students to retirees, and that's what makes it interesting."

First look: Immerse Projects reveals debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Residential Market Trends

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One of the recent trends in real estate is more people moving from the big cities and buying in lifestyle areas within an hour or two of the city.
This movement has been enhanced by technology which allows people to work from home or by improved transport links.
I’ve described Regional Victoria as the strongest market in the nation over the past two years, based on data on sales activity and price growth in multiple locations.
And much of the uplift in markets within an hour or two of Melbourne – in the north, north-west and the south-east – has been driven by buyers out of Melbourne, both home-buyers and investors.
In the six months before the onset of the virus-induced restrictions, there had also been a notable increase in sales activity, with consequent positive impact on prices, in regional areas close to Sydney, including the Central Coast, the Southern Highlands and the Wollongong region.
I believe this trend will be further exacerbated by the current situation, which is forcing people to work from home.
Some will make it a permanent arrangement – and increasingly we are seeing media commentary to that effect.
An article last week in the Herald Sun in Melbourne said:
Many Melburnians will leave the city behind for regional Victoria during the coronavirus crisis, property experts say.
Agencies are reporting a “significant increase” in inquiries about regional properties from city dwellers “seeing the benefits” of working from home due to the COVID-19 lockdown, and keener than ever to escape the “madness” of Melbourne life.
Others are viewing the pandemic-impacted market as offering opportunity to get their feet on the property ladder in affordable areas.
A report from JLL says the COVID-19 quarantine policies have sent employees of all levels – from chief executives to junior staff – home with laptops to their kitchen tables.
“With this mass experiment under way, there is a belief among workplace experts that such set-ups could become more prevalent at companies large and small,” it says.
“Well beyond the peak of the crisis, corporate culture and, more than likely, the digital skills of global workforces, will have changed in significant ways. Location and working hours could become more flexible, leading to better productivity and improved work life balance for individuals.”
Gillian Rowbotham, human experience director – Australasia at JLL, says: “Given how suddenly everything changed, that tech has stood up pretty well, and people are mostly enjoying the flexibility to manage their day according to what needs to be done, I think we are inevitably entering a new dawn in the workplace experience.”
Interior architect Iva Durakovic suggests the success of working from home will mark the end of the office as we current know it, with remote working becoming the new norm.
The Associate Lecturer at UNSW Built Environment believes that remote working arrangements will continue long after the coronavirus pandemic has passed and will also change the nature of office spaces for the better.
"We already saw this idea of a distributed workforce getting stronger - and this will only accelerate it,” she says.
She says that widespread working from home is shaking up the role of the traditional workplace and highlighting what is truly valuable.
"It will break down what we need to come to a traditional workplace for, like face-to-face contact, and the way the future work environment looks. And it will be very different."
All of this has consequences for real estate. It provides another good reason for property investors to consider regional real estate, which offers greater affordability and higher rental yields than the big cities – and, if you choose your location well, good potential for capital growth.
We’ve seen excellent price growth in the past year or two, not only in Regional Victoria, but also in regional locations in NSW, Tasmania, South Australia and increasingly in Queensland.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Regionalisation: The positive real estate trends exacerbated by COVID-19: HotSpotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER 
<div id="post-body-2776624239748747914" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>Residential building work done fell another 2½ per cent back in the first quarter of the year, to be 3.2 per cent lower than a year earlier. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unsurprisingly this largely continued to be driven by apartments and medium-density dwelling activity in Sydney and Brisbane. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There'll plenty more where this came from in Q2 as well. </div>
 <div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-P9fueGlywsY/XOSqw1SGT1I/AAAAAAAAwHQ/oS8gzhTWMf0xNkQe5PiVpvTYLuSYPc7vwCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-P9fueGlywsY/XOSqw1SGT1I/AAAAAAAAwHQ/oS8gzhTWMf0xNkQe5PiVpvTYLuSYPc7vwCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="814" data-original-width="1387"></a></div>
 <div>More disappointingly engineering construction is also now winding down sharply again, to be some 12.4 per cent lower than a year earlier. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>New South Wales and Queensland held up relatively well on public and infrastructure works.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But this was a poor result for Western Australia with the lowest level of activity since 2005. </div>
 <div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7f-GxgMKemk/XOSqwrR3CnI/AAAAAAAAwHM/3FcMjU_TxqU6nY5J4JioFwIagFIGytCgQCLcBGAs/s1600/A2.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7f-GxgMKemk/XOSqwrR3CnI/AAAAAAAAwHM/3FcMjU_TxqU6nY5J4JioFwIagFIGytCgQCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="804" data-original-width="1369"></a></div>
 <div>In the post-Ichthys Northern Territory engineering activity is imploding towards zero.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The wrap</div>
<div> </div>
<div>An ugly result, as median market expectations were for total construction activity to be flat, but year-on-year the contraction has now blown out to 6 per cent and falling fast. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Market analysts and the most highly respected RBA-watchers are weighing up the potential for four interest rate cuts, in addition to fiscal stimulus or unconventional policies. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MRH8cCtxeAo/XOSsPDkwFXI/AAAAAAAAwHc/aSxB8JQy6v8ZDcLMoCZonL2IqDap63WzwCLcBGAs/s1600/JG.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MRH8cCtxeAo/XOSsPDkwFXI/AAAAAAAAwHc/aSxB8JQy6v8ZDcLMoCZonL2IqDap63WzwCLcBGAs/s640/JG.jpg" width="640" height="134" data-original-height="154" data-original-width="729"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The skilled vacancies figures for April showed construction jobs and trades down by between 10 and 20 per cent from a year earlier, pushing the monthly result lower once again. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The trend for skilled vacancies nationwide is now also 6 per cent lower than a year earlier, albeit coming back down from a very high peak in New South Wales and Victoria. </div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. 
</div>
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Construction is winding down sharply: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Home owners are holding onto their property for much longer than they were 10 to 15 years ago.
Based on the findings from the CoreLogic May 2019 sales data (the most up to date data), the average hold period has consistently increased since 2005 across both house and units nationally.
Nationally, the average length of home ownership currently sits at 11.3 years for houses and 9.6 years for units, this is an increase of 3.8 years for houses and 2.9 years for units over the past 10 years. (Note: The average hold period figure is based on sales from the past year, using the latest sold date and the previous sold date to establish how many years a property has been held for between each transaction.)
Across the individual capital cities, the average hold period of both houses and units rose over the last 10 years, 5 years and current year, with houses being held longer relative to units across all capital cities.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/9/6/Home%20Ownership%201.JPG" alt="">
Melbourne houses recorded the longest period of ownership over the last year at an average of 12.5 years
Perth units recorded the longest average hold period of 10.8 years.
Darwin houses are typically being held for 9.2 years
Canberra units are held on average for 8.7 years; the shortest average hold period across the capital cities.
Compared to ten years ago, Sydney recorded the longest average hold periods for both houses and units at 9 and 7.3 years respectively, since then Melbourne houses have consistently seen the longest hold period, while results have been varied across the unit market.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/9/6/Home%20Ownership%202.JPG" alt="">
Regional Victoria and Queensland represented the areas with the longest average hold periods across regional Australia, with houses across both regions currently being held on average 11.1 years, while units in regional WA are being held the longest at 10.2 years.
The Northern Territory rest of state region currently has the shortest average hold period at 8.9 years for houses and 8 years for units.
The council areas with the longest average hold period for houses was dominated by regions within Melbourne, Sydney and regional Queensland. Houses in Monash Victoria came in with the longest average hold period at 17.1 years.
While for units, Perth makes up eight of the 20 council regions with the longest hold periods. Armadale (WA) and Swan Hill (Vic) both recorded an equal average hold period of 13.4 years for units.
The East Pilbara council region tops both the house and unit list for the shortest average hold period, with houses currently being held for 7.7 years, while units across the region are being held by half the duration at 3.8 years.
The remaining regions on the ‘houses held’ list are comprised by mostly regional parts of the country as home owners are evidently more likely to sell across these regions compared to their capital city counterpart. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/9/6/Home%20Ownership%203.JPG" alt="">
Interestingly, the shortest average hold period list for units is dominated by Melbourne with 6 of the 20 council regions making up the unit list. The data suggest that home owners are much more reluctant to sell their property than they were a decade ago which is also highlighted by the ongoing decline in sales transactions.
Other factors at play include: the rising cost of selling and purchasing property, combined with affordability constraints across some Australia’s more expensive capital cities contribute to owners holding onto their properties longer.
It’s expected that this trend will continue over the coming years given such concerns aren’t likely to see much improvement in the near future.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/9/6/Home%20Ownership%204.JPG" alt="">
CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic.
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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Home owners holding onto their homes longer: CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher

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Lower investor demand is being reflected in a shrinking apartment pipeline, according to a new report from JLL.
According to JLL’s latest 1Q 2019 Apartment Market Reports, the number of apartments under construction in Australia’s six major capital cities has fallen by around 10% over the past year.
The number of apartments being marketed has fallen by a massive 48% over the same period.
Melbourne’s construction numbers held strong with 18,540 apartments under construction, up 15% from a year ago.
However, the number of apartments being marketed in Melbourne fell by 51% over the past year (1Q 2018 – 1Q 2019).
Sydney has seen a 24% fall in construction over the past year and a massive 77% reduction in apartments marketed, while Brisbane experienced a 36% reduction in construction and 59% reduction in apartments marketed.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/31/New%20Project%2012.jpg" alt="">
These trends are a result of several factors influencing local market conditions, said Leigh Warner, JLL’s Head of Residential Research - Australia.
“The decline in the supply pipeline that has been happening for some time now very clearly illustrates how the pre-sales requirements put on developers by financiers in Australia makes our supply pipeline very responsive to prevailing demand conditions,” said Warner.
“We’ve seen quite a few projects that we’ve been tracking for some time be redesigned for other land uses including office, hotels and student accommodation by existing or new owners.
“This has particularly been the case in Melbourne.
“The medium-term danger now is clearly that it will take some time for the supply pipeline to get going again and, with still very strong levels of national population growth, we could quite easily move into supply shortages over the next few years at the national level.
“This could result in real pressure on renters in some parts of the country in particular and move us from a housing price affordability crisis into a rental affordability crisis if we are not careful.”
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/31/New%20Project%2013.jpg" alt="">
With the exception of first home buyers, most buyer groups have been very inactive over the past few years, the JLL report said.
APRA’s macro prudential measures have been the major cause of slow investor credit growth, said Warner.
“The fall in overseas demand cannot really be attributed to any one thing,” said Warner.
“State and Federal imposts on foreign investors and credit constraints definitively contributed to the decline, but changes to Chinese capital restrictions likely had a much larger impact.
“And the late stage of the cycle and better opportunities elsewhere also likely played a role.”
With investors largely sitting out, developers are changing schemes to better target owner occupiers, the report found.
“In 1Q19 there was an increase in planning submissions lodged, reflecting both lapsed approvals being resubmitted and developers changing schemes to better suit current demand trends and more specifically target owner occupiers with smaller projects, larger apartments and higher quality finishes,” said Warner.
JLL expects conditions to remain tough in the short-term, with many parts of the country to see further downward pressure on prices and rents before starting to stabilise in late-2019.
“The combination of still tight credit, the Federal election and buyers holding off to see where prices will settle in some markets will all remain headwinds in the short-term,” said Warner.
“However, we think the medium-term outlook is very different.
“We have not significant over-built in aggregate and very low completions over the next few years, along with continued strong population growth, will see us quickly move into an under-provision of space and see rental markets tighten once more.
“The timing of this recovery will differ across the country, but it is likely to be the resource markets of Brisbane and Perth that lead the next cycle as economic and population growth continue to improve in these markets.
“The excesses of the booms in Sydney and Melbourne mean these markets will take longer for price growth to return, but lower investor activity could mean the turnaround in the rental market in these cities could be much quicker.”
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Number of apartments being marketed falls 48% in a year: JLL

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GUEST OBSERVATION
There’s no shortage of talk about house prices. How much further will they fall? When will the market stabilise? Is it time to get in? 
What we know is national capital city dwelling prices have fallen 6.8% since peaking in October 2017, led by Sydney and Melbourne following strong prior price booms. 
But how much has affordability actually improved? 
It’s an important question, not just for potential buyers and nervous sellers. That’s because with the price adjustment in Sydney and Melbourne continuing and demand from property investors unlikely to return soon, an eventual stabilisation of the market depends heavily on the response of owner occupiers to improving affordability – and it seems there’s more to do to generate a lift in demand. 
There is little doubt that housing affordability and consumer sentiment towards housing are closely linked. Our previous research established a particularly close relationship between the “time to buy a dwelling” index and an affordability measure that incorporates both deposit requirements and mortgage repayments.<img src="https://www.westpac.com.au/content/dam/public/wbc/news/images/article/2019/03/TimetoBuy%20(002).png" style="font-size: 12.16px;">
<a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/February/WestpacHousingPulseFebruary2019.pdf" data-s-object-id="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/australia/2019/february/westpachous_1">Latest readings on both measures show</a> buyer sentiment lifting a little in response to some easing in affordability pressures, although the gap to long run averages indicates affordability is still not back to “normal”. After hitting a seven-year high of 23.3% in late 2017, the proportion of average household income required to finance the purchase of a median priced dwelling has declined to just below 22% in early 2019 to be near the levels seen in late 2016. 
That’s partly because many factors feed into affordability with price moves, mortgage rates and incomes key. 
In other periods of price corrections, namely the late 1980s and early 1990s, the GFC and the 2011–13 interest rate tightening cycle, falling rates and income growth helped restore affordability.
In contrast, this adjustment is expected to see much less assistance from rates and is occurring against a backdrop of weak income growth, implying that price declines will need to do most of the “heavy lifting” to generate an improvement in affordability. 
And there’s likely more lifting to do, even though Westpac now expects the RBA to cut rates help affordability too. 
<img src="https://www.westpac.com.au/content/dam/public/wbc/news/images/article/2019/03/AusdwellingPrices%20(002).png">
Using some indicative estimates of how much further prices may need to move by looking at the price change required to return affordability to its 20-year average points to about a further 5% decline required nationally. In NSW and Victoria, more substantive moves in the 5-10% range are likely to be required, while other states should require milder moves.
While the picture differs across cities, and between houses and units in most cases, price adjustments in the key Sydney and Melbourne markets still look to have some way to run. 
That will be disappointing for those hoping for stabilisation to emerge but will be encouraging for those looking to get into what were previously very expensive markets.
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist for Westpac
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Matthew_Hassan-HHWHptmrw4

How much more affordable is housing now? Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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Construction work completed fell 2.5% in the December quarter 2018, according to the latest figures released by the ABS, but still rose over the year.
Despite the December quarter decline, the residential building industry did $68.7 billion worth of work on new homes during 2018 - which was an all time high.
Work done is 2.1% up on the year.
Construction costs rose 3.6% over 2018, the biggest increase in nine years, according to CommSec.
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/2/27/Con-Costs.jpg" target="_blank">here </a>to enlarge
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/27/Con-Costs.jpg" alt="">
"The 2018 calendar year set a record for residential building activity but the amount of building work being done by the industry is now slowing," HIA senior economist Geordan Murray said.
"Following its mid-year peak, activity began to retreat.
"Other leading indicators of residential building activity, such as sales of new residential lots, new home sales, building approvals and housing finance all deteriorated quite significantly during the latter stages of 2018.
“This implies that the pipeline of new residential building work is thinning out and as the homes that are currently under construction reach completion there are likely to be fewer new projects to replace them."
HIA suggest the number of homes under construction will continue to decline throughout this phase of the cycle and the value of building work will decline accordingly.
"Today’s figures are significant as they provide a good indication that next week’s GDP figures will show that the slowdown in new home building has detracted from GDP growth for the second consecutive quarter," Murray said.
"HIA forecasts further declines in home building over the next two years which will provide a headwind for economic growth."
Construction activity still sits at high levels, however it's another weak reading in the Australian property industry.
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/2/27/con-levels.jpg" target="_blank">here </a>to enlarge
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/27/con-levels.jpg" alt="">
Earlier this month the dwelling approvals reached their <a href="/news/apartments-drive-dwelling-approval-decline-back-to-2013-levels">lowest levels since 2013</a>.
CommSec's Craig James says the inflation dragon has been sighted in the economy and is alive and well in the construction sector.
"The higher costs are in evidence across home building, commercial construction and engineering," James said.
"The question is whether builders and developers will be able to pass on the higher costs in the current environment."
Construction work fell across all states and territories.
The Northern Territory was down over 14%, followed by Queensland at 5.8%.
New South Wales was down 4.1%, Tasmania 3.6%, Western Australia 3.3% and ACT 3% down.
South Australia saw 2.5% decline and Victoria just 1.1%.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Construction work declines more than expected

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The Reserve Bank (RBA) has released its financial aggregates data for October 2018.  The housing credit data is of particular interest.  It covers data from all local mortgage lenders and measures the value of mortgages outstanding.  The data is important because it highlights the expansion or contraction in credit.
As at the end of October 2018 there was $1.797 trillion in outstanding housing credit.  Housing was overwhelmingly the largest share of outstanding credit, accounting for 62.1% of total credit.  Looking at the split between owner occupier and investor credit, owner occupiers accounted for 67.0% of outstanding credit while investors accounted for 33.0% which is that cohort’s lowest share since June 2012.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/change%20in%20house%20credit.png" alt="change in house credit" width="1017" height="256" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="677891bb-3eda-4d6f-b1e4-e67f74329956" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/change%20in%20house%20credit.png">
 Total housing credit increased by 0.3% in October 2018 which was its slowest monthly rate of growth since July 1984. The monthly expansion in housing credit has been consistently slowing since February 2018 when it expanded by just 0.5% during the month. On an annual basis, housing credit has expanded by 5.1% which is its slowest annual expansion since October 2013. While the slowdown in credit growth was initially being led by investors, credit growth for owner occupiers is now also slowing.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/change%20owner%20occupier%20credit.png" alt="change owner occupier credit" width="993" height="250" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a3e4f229-9c47-484f-8c67-6e521303edcf" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/change%20owner%20occupier%20credit.png">
 Owner occupier housing credit increased by 0.4% in October 2018 which was its slowest monthly growth since April 2015. Owner occupier housing credit increased by 7.0% over the 12 months to October 2018 and that was its annual slowest growth since November 2015. The monthly change in owner occupier credit has been slowing since February 2018 which has slowed annual credit growth form 8.1% to the currently 7.0%.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/change%20investor%20credit.png" alt="change investor credit" width="978" height="247" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c4f385f9-69ec-4e92-a70e-377e5f39dbf8" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/change%20investor%20credit.png">
 Investor credit recorded a nominal increase of less than 0.1% in October 2018 which was its smallest monthly change since credit fell by -0.1% in June 2018. The monthly change in investor credit has been minimal for a number of years now which is resulting in the weakest annual expansion in investor credit on record. Over the past 12 months, investor credit has expanded by just 1.3%.
It should be noted that the expansion in credit to investors is certainly being driven by fewer new originations (as highlighted in monthly housing finance commitments data). What is less clear but is also likely to be a factor is the ongoing shift from investors away from interest-only mortgages and towards principal and interest. Note that RBA reports around 70% of interest-only mortgages are to investors. In terms of new interest-only lending, APRA reported in the June 2018 quarter that $15.74 billion worth of new interest only mortgages was committed to which was its second lowest quarterly value any time since March 2008. Furthermore, the total value of outstanding interest-only mortgages has fallen to $461.329 billion, its lowest value since September 2014. As borrowers move from interest-only arrangements in which the principal isn’t repaid, to principal and interest mortgages, outstanding credit to investors is expected to keep falling especially as overall investor and interest-only new lending also continues to fall.
Overall, the reduction in housing credit can be attributed to the tighter credit environment, however a range of other factors are also at play in tempering housing credit, including low consumer sentiment, housing affordability constraints and higher mortgage rates. We expect housing credit growth to remain weak. With fewer transactions in the market and ongoing value declines it is reasonable to expect a further slowing of housing credit demand over the coming months.
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More signs the housing market is slowing further: Cameron Kusher

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House price growth is typically regarded as a good thing. It creates a feel good wealth effect which triggers spending across the Sydney economy.
But over the past few weeks, ANZ, Moody's Analytics, BIS Oxford, Macquarie Securities, HSBC, Citi, JP Morgan and UBS have all adjusted their price forecasts downwards for the Sydney residential market outlook. 
Most of these economists are saying prices will fall by somewhere up to 10% from peak to trough.
For most property owners who are happy where they are, its not something that is going to directly affect their bottom line. They might just think they are not as wealthy.
The reduced values could certainly affect existing homeowners refinancing mortgage loans in what is already a tougher post-royal commission lending landscape.
The sellers this spring who have owned their home for an extended time are on the whole likely to come up a little short of the stellar price that their new neighbour paid last year.
But with huge 75% gains made during the five year long post-2012 boom, they will be fine.
This downturn, if it stays moderately quarantined, will only truly impact those who bought in the past two years, paying over the odds, and now wanting to sell.
These resales are actually few and far between, although I spotted one in Surry Hills.
The ninth floor, one bedder sold for $753,000 having sold in early 2017 at $770,000.
All up when the $20,000 loss is added to costs, the seller would be down by $70,000.
But at least there was activity arising from the listing which highlights home buying is more affordable for buyers.
There were three bidders for the apartment, so two are still looking.
The NSW Treasury actually anticipates a slowdown in sales activity, which could limit the price falls, but will unquestionably affect many more players in the property market.
Treasury expect just 183,000 annual sales, as property transactions are put on hold.
This figure is down on the prior 210,000 annual sales tally.
That means 27,000 fewer agency commissions and solicitor contracts.
Less bank or mortgage broker loans.
Fewer tradies tasked to fix up those long overdue unhelpful selling issues like the leaking gutters.
No need for those fresh flowers for the Saturday open for inspections. 
Maybe no need for 54,000 bottles of champagne - one for every seller and buyer.
It is this ripple effect which affects the wider economy and potentially triggers a recession.
The Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe recently suggested the current decline was "manageable".
Australia had gone through "plenty of periods" in the last two decades where prices have declined," Dr Lowe said.
"That's what happens in the housing market – we have these big run-ups, prices stabilise, sometimes they might fall, stabilise and then they'll rise again.
“We are watching it carefully.
"As long as it's not a very large decline – it's manageable."
Of course, full time secure jobs have traditionally been the key to owning and holding the family home.
So it is to be hoped the 8,000 layoffs announced this month by Telstra don't become endemic.
This article first appeared in The Daily Telegraph. 
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