<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/consolidated-properties">Consolidated Properties Group</a> (CPG) is approaching the launch of its latest Brisbane riverfront development, Castile, on the dress circle Skyring Terrace in Newstead.</p>

<p>VIP buyers are now being engaged, with a full public sales launch coming later this year.</p>

<p>Positioned as the final opportunity to secure a new absolute riverfront residence on the East bank of Newstead, Teneriffe or New Farm, Castile at 47 Skyring Terrace has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> as a timeless addition to the Brisbane skyline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=371113]</p>

<p>The name Castile draws on themes of permanence, sophistication and legacy, reflecting a broader vision centred on enduring architecture and timelessness in the rarest of riverfront positions.&nbsp;</p>

<p>CPG Chairman and CEO Don O’Rorke said the project had been envisioned as a future Brisbane icon.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“With 47 metres of direct river frontage and never to be built out views, 47 Skyring Terrace is the definitive address on the Brisbane River,” O’Rorke said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=371114]</p>

<p>“Rather than following trend-based apartment design, Castile draws inspiration from Brisbane’s great heritage buildings, reinterpreting classical architecture into a contemporary riverfront landmark designed to stand proudly for the next 100 years,” he said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The approved development will comprise 227 apartments across a 25-storey tower alongside a boutique six-storey riverfront building of just 12 residences.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Construction is scheduled to commence in September 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150489]</p>


Joel Robinson

CPG unveils Castile Newstead ahead of upcoming sales launch

<p>Australia’s online shopping habits have shifted dramatically over the last decade. As eCommerce volumes surged, so too did the frustrations that came with traditional parcel delivery: missed deliveries, long Post Office queues, parcel theft and the challenge of being home during business hours.</p>

<p>Australia Post’s Parcel Lockers emerged as one of the more practical responses to that changing consumer behaviour.</p>

<p>What started as a relatively niche delivery option has evolved into a nationwide network of more than 1,400 self-service Parcel Lockers positioned at train stations, shopping centres, supermarkets and Post Offices across the country. The system allows Australians to send, collect and return parcels 24 hours a day, fundamentally changing how many people interact with deliveries.</p>

<p>The appeal is relatively straightforward: flexibility.</p>

<p>Instead of waiting at home for a delivery driver or rushing to a Post Office before closing time, users can direct eligible parcels to a Parcel Locker location of their choice. Once the parcel arrives, Australia Post sends a notification with a collection code or QR access through the AusPost app, allowing customers to retrieve their package at any time within the collection window.</p>

<p>For apartment residents in particular, the system has become increasingly valuable.</p>

<p>Higher-density living has created logistical challenges around deliveries, especially in buildings without concierge services or secure parcel rooms. Missed deliveries are common, while parcel theft has become an increasing concern as online shopping volumes continue to rise.</p>

<p>Australia Post itself has repeatedly highlighted the growing issue of “porch pirates” during peak shopping periods, encouraging customers to use Parcel Lockers as a safer alternative to unattended home deliveries.</p>

<p>That security aspect is one of the key reasons the Australia Post Parcel Locker network has grown so rapidly.</p>

<p>Parcel Lockers are positioned as secure, monitored collection points that reduce the risk of theft while also improving delivery efficiency for Australia Post. Instead of multiple redelivery attempts, parcels can be consolidated into a single secure destination.</p>

<p>The Parcel Lockers themselves are free to use through a MyPost account and support a range of parcel sizes up to 16 kilograms and dimensions of approximately 35 x 44 x 61 centimetres.</p>

<p>Beyond receiving parcels, the system has increasingly become integrated into the broader eCommerce ecosystem.</p>

<p>Customers can now use Parcel Lockers to return online purchases, while retailers have embraced the model as a way to improve delivery success rates and reduce friction in the shopping process. Australia Post has actively expanded partnerships with major retailers and promoted Parcel Lockers as part of a broader out-of-home strategy.</p>

<p>The timing of that expansion aligns with broader changes in Australian shopping behaviour.</p>

<p>The acceleration of online retail during and after the pandemic placed enormous pressure on delivery infrastructure. Parcel volumes reached record highs, particularly during Black Friday and Christmas periods, with Australia Post delivering more than 100 million parcels during peak festive seasons.</p>

<p>That growth forced logistics providers to rethink the “last mile” of delivery, widely regarded as the most expensive and operationally difficult stage of the process.</p>

<p>Parcel Locker systems have increasingly been viewed as part of the long-term solution.</p>

<p>The concept itself is not unique to Australia. Parcel Locker networks have become common globally, particularly across Europe and Asia, where dense urban environments and apartment living create similar logistical challenges. But Australia’s geography and suburban sprawl made adoption slower initially.</p>

<p>Now, however, the convenience factor is driving mainstream usage.</p>

<p>For commuters, Parcel Lockers near train stations allow parcels to be collected on the way home from work. For apartment dwellers, they remove the uncertainty around access and missed deliveries.</p>

<p>The rise of the AusPost app has also streamlined the experience, centralising notifications, tracking and Parcel Locker access into a single platform. Australia Post has increasingly pushed customers toward app-based delivery management, partly as a way to combat phishing scams and fake delivery notifications, which have become more sophisticated in recent years.</p>

<p>The Parcel Locker model is also beginning to influence property development itself.</p>

<p>Parcel management has become a growing consideration in apartment building design, particularly as online shopping becomes embedded in everyday life. Many new residential developments are now incorporating dedicated parcel rooms or Parcel Locker systems into foyers and communal spaces.</p>

<p>For developers, parcel management is increasingly viewed as part of the broader resident amenity offering, alongside gyms, wellness spaces and communal work areas.</p>

<p>That reflects a wider evolution in how residential buildings are designed.</p>

<p>Apartment buyers are placing greater emphasis on convenience, security and operational functionality, particularly in higher-density urban environments. Parcel delivery, once considered a minor operational detail, has become an increasingly important part of that equation.</p>

<p>Australia Post’s Parcel Locker network sits at the centre of that behavioural shift.</p>

<p>What began as a simple alternative delivery option has evolved into a key piece of infrastructure supporting Australia’s growing eCommerce economy and changing urban lifestyles.</p>

<p>And as online shopping continues to expand, the role of Parcel Lockers is likely to become even more embedded in how Australians live, shop and receive goods.</p>


How Australia Post Parcel Lockers changed parcel delivery convenience in Australia

<p>Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.</p>

<p>Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]</p>

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

<p>Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;</p>

<p>At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]</p>

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

<p>Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.</p>

<p>David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.</p>

<p>“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]</p>

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

<p>While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.</p>

<p>Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;</p>


Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.</p>

<p>The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.</p>

<p>Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.</p>

<p>“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" /></p>

<p>Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.</p>

<p>The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.</p>

<p>“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" /></p>

<p>Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.</p>

<p>“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.</p>

<p>The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.</p>

<p>“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”</p>

<p>The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.</p>

<p>The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.</p>


Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

<p>Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.</p>

<p>Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.</p>

<p>The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.</p>

<p>“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.</p>

<p>“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”</p>

<p>The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.</p>

<p>“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”</p>

<p>From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.</p>

<p>“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”</p>

<p>The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.</p>

<p>“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.</p>

<p>“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.</p>

<p>“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”</p>

<p>The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.</p>

<p>“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Residential Construction

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<div>Building Approvals data revealed the expected rebound in February after the seasonal lull in January, but the downtrend is clearly in place from the trend peak of 11 months ago.</div>
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<div>House approvals have rolled a little, but the tailing off is more likely to be seen in the units, apartments and townhouses sector following an impressive burst since 2012. </div>
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<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Capital city analysis</span></strong></p>
<div>House approvals are faading fast in Perth in reaction to elevated vacancy rates, while Melbourne continues to approve the greatest number of houses by some margin, and as such may be the city with the greatest potential for overbuilding. </div>
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<div>The last couple of months have been much slower for unit approvals in Sydney and Melbourne, which is now being reflected in the rolling annual figures below.<br><br>After nearly a decade of under-building Sydney is now approving a decent number of attached dwellings.</div>
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<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Dream over for high rise</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>This record approvals boom for Australia has largely been driven by "high rise" or four plus storey unit blocks, but this part of the approvals boom has noticeably slowed over the past four months. </div>
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<p> </p>
<div>Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane have each gone hard at approvals in the high density sector over the past few years, but all three cities have now passed their respective peaks. </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>With APRA having insisted upon tigher lending criteria for investors building approvals will in all likelihood continue to slow from here, following a record run.<br><br>Even at this well advanced stage in the construction cycle vacancy rates have been tightening in inner Sydney to just 1.3 percent, but cracks are starting to show in some of the secondary and outer areas where vacancy rates are above 2 per cent (and in some pockets higher again). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Building approvals boom all over bar the grouting: Pete Wargent

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<p>The first sod was turned by City of Sydney Lord Mayor Clover Moore and Crown Group CEO Iwan Sunito in the construction of a $575-million tower project named Infinity in Sydney's Green Square on Thursday.</p>
<p>The 20-storey design was named winner of the 2014 Urban Development Institute of Australia (UDIA) NSW Concept Design award. </p>
<p>The tower on the corner of Bourke and Botany Roads, part of the council's $8-billion Green Square redevelopment precinct, will have direct underground access to Green Square train station.</p>
<p>Designed by Koichi Takada Architects, the mixed-use project features a 1180-sqm open-air plaza with gardens and surrounded by retail outlets, restaurants and cafés.</p>
<p>Crown Group Holdings was co-founded by architect Iwan Sunito and engineer Paul Sathio in 1996. </p>
<p>Sunito was also named Urban Taskforce Australia’s 2015 Property Person of the Year.</p>
<p>"We've been inundated with buyers," Crown Group chief executive Iwan Sunito said on its sales' day last August. </p>
<p>The total value of the off the plan apartments sold had reached $350 million by 3pm Saturday.</p>
<p>"We released 326 apartments and 105 apartments sold in the first hour. </p>
<p>"It's great to see so many people proud and excited to own their own piece of Infinity by Crown Group." </p>
<p>Some 60 percent of the buyers were investors and the rest owner-occupiers, the <em>Australian Financial Review</em> noted, with exchange e-contracts on an iPad for one-bedroom units to penthouses priced from $650,000 to $3.5 million. </p>
<p>Lord Mayor Clover Moore said Infinity by Crown Group was emblematic of what the city hoped to achieve at Green Square, one of the most significant urban renewal projects in Australia. <br> <br>“When completed, Infinity will be home to hundreds of new residents, its eateries and retail outlets will facilitate new jobs, while a new conference facility in the building will attract new events to Green Square," he said. <br> <br>“Throughout history, cities have attracted the best and the brightest and in an era with increasing competition between cities in our region, developments like Infinity and the Green Square renewal will make sure Sydney continues to do just that.”<br> <br>Sunito said he envisaged Infinity would become a residential and retail hub. “Infinity by Crown Group will set a new benchmark in city living and architecture,” he added.</p>
<p>“Infinity by Crown Group has been an exceptional project from the start – from the first stages of development and design selection through to the most successful sales launch in Crown Group’s history.”<br><br>The City of Sydney has committed $540 million over the next 10 years to build facilities and infrastructure in Green Square including a library, a civic plaza, a new park and playing fields, an aquatic leisure centre and a new childcare centre; part of an $8-billion redevelopment of the 278-hectare Green Square precinct.<br> <br>Green Square is forecast to have a population of 61 000 people by 2030 and provide 21,000 new permanent jobs by 2030. </p>
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Lord Mayor turns first sod at Infinity, Crown Group's Green Square tower

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<h4> </h4>
<p><span>GUEST OBSERVER</span></p>
<p>Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s recent warnings that house prices would fall steeply under a Labor government confirm the underlying politics of housing policy in Australia. The default position for politicians is to sound concerned about housing affordability, but do nothing.</p>
<p>In a recent paper, we draw on the notion of “policy capture” to understand why politicians and governments appear determined to avoid seemingly obvious solutions to housing problems.</p>
<p>Policy capture theories explain how special interests can have a disproportionate influence on public policy. Their techniques include the construction and provision of information (or “evidence”), problem forming and framing, lobbying, financial donations and direct political action. The vectors of influence include think-tanks, professional lobbyists, “spin doctors” and peak interest groups.</p>
<p>Our analysis applies the lens of policy capture to understand the sorry history of Australian housing policy over the past two decades.</p>
<h2>All talk, little action</h2>
<p>Numerous national and state policy processes have pointed out the need for more affordable housing in Australia since the Productivity Commission reported on home ownership costs in 2003-04.</p>
<p>The National Housing Supply Council (axed in 2013) estimated that Australia needed around 500,000 more affordable homes. But very few government initiatives have directly supported affordable housing supply.</p>
<p>Rather, the response has been to hold inquiries, form taskforces and blame another level of government. State and local planning systems take most of the flak. The withdrawal of Commonwealth funding for social housing – accounting for around 12 percent of new dwellings in the mid-1980s but only around 2 percent today – hardly rates a mention.</p>
<h2>A narrative of ‘artificial barriers’ and planning constraint</h2>
<p>Conservative think-tanks have played a key role in framing a policy narrative that presents planning system barriers as the housing problem. And regulatory reform is presented as the solution.</p>
<p>The Institute of Public Affairs' (IPA) long-running Great Australian Dream Project was launched under the leadership of Bob Day, former head of the Housing Industry Australia and now Family First senator. The IPA campaign focuses squarely on the impact of “regulatory policy” and “artificial” land-supply constraints.</p>
<p>For “evidence”, the IPA cites the work of private consultancy firm Demographia. Its annual housing affordability surveys purport to prove links between planning and high house prices, despite being widely debunked.</p>
<p>Writing the foreword to Demographia’s latest report, Day argues that barriers to home ownership are “the product of restrictions imposed through planning regulation and zoning”. Planning rules have also dragged young women out of the home, he laments" "<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">We cannot deny the rising generation a home of their own merely to satisfy the ideological fantasies of urban planners … We cannot deny ourselves the joys of grandchildren because young women have to work to pay mortgages instead of raising a family."</span></p>
<p>Providing adequate and well-located land is an important measure of planning systems. Barriers to diverse or affordable housing development must also be dismantled where these are shown to exist.</p>
<p>But the politics of property and planning seems perversely to encourage speculative land development (buying rural, industrial or low-density residential land and agitating for a valuable rezoning), while enabling nervous residents to block proposals for affordable and social housing development.</p>
<p>The Property Council of Australia, along with other development industry “peak groups”, has been vocal in blaming the planning system for affordability pressures. It has staunchly opposed the inclusionary housing measures that predominate in the global cities of the US and Europe but remain nascent in Australia.</p>
<p>Inclusionary planning approaches preserve affordable housing opportunities when land is rezoned or following major public infrastructure investment. These approaches do have many limitations and usually depend on other sources of finance to deliver homes for very low-income groups.</p>
<p>But their strength lies in ensuring that the benefits of public infrastructure investment and urban development are not solely capitalised in house and land values. These gains benefit existing owners at the expense of those trying to find a decent place to live.</p>
<p>In another example of the “revolving doors” phenomenon whereby politicians and senior bureaucrats slide between industry, advocacy and officialdom, Treasurer Scott Morrison’s CV includes six years as the Property Council’s national manager, policy and research. The Property Council is leading the charge against “seismic” changes to negative gearing.</p>
<h2>More houses, but young people still can’t buy a home</h2>
<p>The housing supply crisis, which has been debated for much of the past ten years, appears to have temporarily resolved. New housing starts are at their highest in a decade. But despite the narrative of housing shortage as the reason for high prices, new supply hasn’t made houses more affordable for aspiring first home buyers.</p>
<p>That’s because we’re trapped in a housing system that seems dependent on rising prices (driven by market demand) to stimulate increased supply. It’s a catch 22. When house prices slow, so does housing construction, anticipating a drop-off in demand.</p>
<p>That’s why the scare campaign about negative gearing is so effective. That most economists think Labor’s proposed changes would be benign has been lost in the emotions and fear surrounding this debate.</p>
<p>According to the Property Council, the nation’s economy and our own personal wealth is a fragile “house of cards”, vulnerable to collapse with any shift in the status quo.</p>
<h2>Can we create affordable supply without reducing prices?</h2>
<p>The debates do reflect two enduring policy problems:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>how to keep housing construction running when price growth slows or reverses; and</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>how to create affordable housing without lowering prices across the market.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p>Luckily, there’s a proven way for governments to stabilise housing production, despite market fluctuations and without bringing down existing home prices. That’s to expand, radically, the size of the non-profit/affordable housing sector.</p>
<p>Governments can do so by driving investment towards affordable rental housing and by enabling new housing products. These range from low-cost home ownership schemes to community land trusts and shared equity programs.</p>
<p>These models are well established overseas. Numerous studies have demonstrated their potential significance and viability for Australia. Even the Property Council supports incentives for affordable housing development.</p>
<p>As yet another working party considers the problem of affordable housing, let’s hope its members are listening to the wide range of voices who have long called for real “financing and structural reform”.</p>
<p>Low-income tenants and aspiring homeowners haven’t had much traction in this arena. They have been locked out by the latent political power of the property-owning electorate and the pervasive campaigns run by the development industry.</p>
<p>Despite the tenor of the current debate, real change is on the table. The question is whether those who are the main beneficiaries will continue to enable the charade or whether the politics of housing policy can finally turn.</p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name" style="line-height: 1.3em;">Nicole Gurran is p</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">rofessor - Urban and Regional Planning , University of Sydney and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nicole-gurran-759" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></em></p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name" style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Peter Phibbs</span> is c</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">hair of Urban Planning and Policy, University of Sydney and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-phibbs-27130" target="_blank">here</a>. </span></em></p>
<p><em><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Both are authors for The Conversation.</span></em></p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Affordable housing policy and politics

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<p><span>Property group Lendlease is expected to start construction of a 25,000-square-metre tower in Melbourne, part of a $2 billion mixed-use scheme, after winning planning approval for its first commercial tower.</span></p>
<p><span>Planning Minister Richard Wynne has approved the first $200 million 11-level tower at 695 Collins Street, noting the public space created by the design of a sky-park. </span></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/03/10/News_tower.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p><span>Lendlease has secured pre-commitment from engineering company Arup, who will take out three floors in the building, to be known as One Melbourne Quarter. </span></p>
<p><span>It is the first of seven commercial and residential buildings planned for the 2.5-hectare site running between Collins and Flinders streets at the edge of the old city grid, linking it to Docklands.</span></p>
<p><span>Lendlease calls the project Melbourne Quarter. </span></p>
<p><span>Alongside the Collins Street extension into Docklands, Lendlease will build, in stages, a deck over Wurundjeri Way, to hold different elements of the project together.   </span></p>
<p><span>The tower, designed by Denton Corker Marshall will sit next to a $2.5 billion project in Collins Square that property magnate Lang Walker is still building and trying to sell.</span></p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.lendlease.com/australia/projects/batmans-hill" target="_blank">Batman's Hill development</a> will include more than 110,000 sqm NLA office space, 1,693 apartments and retail space, according to the Lendlease website.</p>
<p><span> <img src="/images/2016/03/10/carousel_about_skypark.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
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Lendlease to start work on $200 million office tower in Melbourne's Batman's Hill

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<div>It's mainly a been a week of furious tax debate. Admittedly it's been quite a few years since I was employed in a tax position of any note, and even longer since I sat my tax exams.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>No matter, for almost everyone in Australia is a tax expert, and nearly all of us are in agreement that someone needs to pay more tax...just as long as it isn't us!</div>
<div>
<br>Higher stamp duty levies, land tax, income tax, capital gains tax, imputed rental charges, corporation taxes, and superannuation taxes are just a handful of the tolls and contributions being demanded by the baying mob. We are suddently all sure loving the idea of higher taxes!<br><br>A couple of things I can recall from studying tax, particularly with regards to the interdependent sectors of the housing market, are that firstly it's far easier to tweak tax rates and sections of the tax legislation than it is to rip them up entirely, and secondly most modelling and scenario analysis falls over miserably because it fails to account accurately for behavioural change triggered by new tax legislation. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>To be frank, I'll believe any fundamental changes when I see them. Deductibility of mortgage interest for investors has effectively been a bi-partisan policy for decades, and it's only now in Opposition that the ALP is proposing a second stab at grandfathering negative gearing rules. My guess is that the most likely change to housing market taxes would be caps on deductibility, but that really is just a guess.</div>
<div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record residential construction boom</span></strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perhaps the most curious part of the entire issue is the timing. A surge of investor lending has seen rental growth careering to 20 year lows, and with the supply response now in full swing a record nadir is almost certainly in the post. In fact, we're already there according to CoreLogic-RP Data's data series.<br><br>It's a well worn argument that investors don't add to the dwelling stock, but if you've ever worked in the development space you'll know that developers don't <span style="text-decoration: line-through;">give a</span> <span style="text-decoration: line-through;">care a toss</span> give a fig whether a property is bought by a homeowner or an investor, negatively geared or otherwise.<br><br>What creates new supply is declining financing costs, rising demand in aggregate, and thus rising prices, and as this cycle has progressed we have been getting all of these in spades, particularly resulting in a surge of new units, townhouses &amp; apartments, which in turn has already cooled these parts of the housing market naturally.<br><br>The strongest prices gains have been seen in Sydney and Melbourne and these cities have played host to the bulk of the supply response, though a combination of rising prices, low interest rates and, let's be blunt about this, a fresh market of Chinese mainland buyers of new apartments, has seen construction activity increase sharply in Brisbane and elsewhere too.<br><br>Only a couple of years after the system was apparently busted (which would allegedly march us into a recession) residential construction activity hit its highest ever level. So much for negative gearing restricting the dwelling stock - it's the greatest residential construction boom on record!</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/23/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/02/23/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Rents?</span></strong><br><br><span>As for whether falling demand from investors would lead to rents rising, logically the answer is obviously "yes" as rental supply diminishes, for not all renters want to buy, and many could not afford to do so without borrowing the full purchase price and associated closing costs, a dynamic regulators have been nervously edging away from ever since the financial crisis.</span><br><br><span>Unfortunately I don't have much hard Australian-based evidence upon which to base this assertion, since there have only been two instances where rents have spiked in Australia over the 33 years of available data, but one might reasonably expect that these coincided with downturns in investor activity.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/23/A2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/02/23/A2.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Incidentally, another quirky facet to the negative gearing debate has been the so-termed "Fact Check" articles which instruct us that rental growth indices "must" be adjusted for inflation i.e. the price of consumer goods (such as the price of cheese, pork, sewerage costs, goat, and so on). "Must" they, fact checkers? According to whom are these "facts" actually facts?<br><br>While there may conceptually be a very loose relationship between inflation and rental price growth, at best it is a link bound by a mile-long rubber band. I've never once come across a landlord adjusting rents for the growth in price of a tub of ice cream, or a dozen eggs, or a packet of smokes, the price of having a root canal, or whatever. It's an absurd notion, really.<br><br>Typically rental price growth is simply one function of the wider property market cycle, specifically supply (the number and type of rentals available for lease) and demand (the volume of renters in the market, and the product collectively in demand from them), although household income growth does indirectly play its part.</div>
<br><div>We can see in the chart below that investor lending more than halved from $0.210 billion in May 1985 to $0.099 billion by early 1986, so evidently the amendments to the tax legislation at that time did change investor behaviour, while dwelling starts also immediately collapsed as charted here previously.</div>
<br><div>Unfortunately the ABS data on investor loans is sawn off at January 1985, so it's not possible for me to put the drop into a wider context, although if you believe what property-loving folk wrote nearer to that time, investor sentiment fell dramatically, which contributed to rent increases in Sydney and Perth in the short space of time that interest deductibility was quarantined.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/23/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/02/23/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>The inverse link between investor activity and rental price growth in these two charts above could not be any clearer.</span><br><br><span>Moreover, the property markets of today aren't readily comparable unless population growth is dialled back, since in the major markets of Sydney and Melbourne absolute population growth is much higher. Victoria's population grew by 42,781 in 1985, for example, but has been tracking at around 2.5 times that level recently.</span><br><br><span>Mostly old ground. But what about more recently when annualised rental growth soared to 8.4 per cent in December 2008? Was there also a dip in investment lending then which led to the rental supply shortage and some wrecthed rent increases in parts of Sydney and elsewhere?</span><br><br><span>Again, clearly yes, the figures show that investor lending all but halved from $10.1 billion in June 2007 to just $5.1 billion by January 2009, coinciding exactly with the spike in rents as investors deserted the market, spooked by the onset of the global financial crisis and various predictions of a crash by market commentators.</span><br><br><span>As you can see in the chart below, investor lending rebounded strongly from the month of February 2009, which was the month within which Kevin Rudd announced his famous $42 billion stimulus package, and rental growth quickly cooled again.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/23/B2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/02/23/B2.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Overall the figures suggest that sharp rental price increases do follow declines in investor activity, pretty much exactly as you would expect.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Recent pullback</span></strong><br><br>At the end of the above chart, we can see that monthly investor lending has recently fallen from a peak of $15.5 billion in June 2015 to $12.6 billion by December. Despite this pullback, which was driven by APRA's interventionary measures, I actually don't see strong rental growth returning any time soon for a few reasons. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Firstly because the rate of dwelling construction and work in the pipeline remains at very high levels. Secondly because such a high proportion of new dwellings is presently being bought by foreign buyers (and thus are not captured by this data). And thirdly because I also have a sneaking suspicion that a fair percentage of deemed "owner-occupiers" are magically switching to become investors post-purchase.<br><br>There may also be some small impacts from subtle shifts in rental practices such as the growth of Air B&amp;B, although these will surely be less influential than the key trends.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, despite media articles assuring us over and over again that hosing down investor activity would not lead to increasing rents, market experience tells me that in the largest capital cities this is precisely what would play out. </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></strong></div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Changes to tax?</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Penultimately, few figures have been tortured more enthusiastically of late than those showing who claims negative gearing benefits or deductions for net rent. Of course, the highest deductions in dollar value terms are claimed by high income earners, since this cohort pays the highest rate of tax - and thus the most tax - and also tends to buy more expensive rental properties, which naturally have a weaker rental return. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The data presented objectively by Cameron Kusher of CoreLogic-RP Data below show that negative gearing is used right across the spectrum of taxpayers by income bracket, although it <strong><em>is </em></strong>true that you are more likely to claim net rent deductions if you have taxable income of $80,000 or above (25.8 per cent of taxpayers in this cohort) than if you earn $80,000 or below (13 per cent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/02/23/ATO.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/02/23/ATO.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>This rings true. From my own experience, none of my friends owned a rental property when we worked in part time jobs at university or in the years immediately after high school, but a fair few did so over time as they grew older, got full time and better paying jobs, met life partners who were incumbent property owners, and so on.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The figures show that the overwhelming majority of taxpayers with rental properties never own more than one property, and most of the remainder own only two (this can easily happen by default as a couple leave their respective starter home apartments in order to cohabit), while my experience in the market tells me that everyday people in full time employment claim rental deductions just as frequently as CEOs and surgeons. You can see this for yourself every weekend at opens and auctions. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In this regard, market experience is as instructive as the tortured data. Not dissimilarly it was obvious during the so-called "homebuyers strike" in Sydney that every second person who called me was a first-time buyer, but rightly or wrongly they were buying an investment property as a first step onto the ladder rather than a home (and as such were not being captured or classified as "homebuyers").</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There have been calls to halve the capital gains tax discount, but with a Coalition Prime Minister with a net worth of well over $100 million, this seems to me to be a seriously remote prospect.<br><br>It's worth noting that the introduction of the capital gains tax discount did not halve tax payable as is frequently implied, rather it replaced the old indexation of the cost base system which ran from 1985 and was not discontinued until 1999, inflicting a searing pain upon tax exam students and preparers of tax returns alike.<br><br>Capital gains tax (CGT) is a crappy tax, especially when it does not account for inflation, effectively a punitive double <a href="https://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=7091" target="_blank">taxation of savings</a> which discourages investment. The optimal rate of CGT is zero. In any case new housing is already one of the most heavily taxed commodities there is.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">New builds?</span></strong><br><br><div>Finally, on paper, Labor's proposal to limit negative gearing deductions to new builds sound plausible, but in practice this would simply replace one market distortion with another. In particular buyers of new-build investment properties benefitting from tax deductions would discover that their resale market had been ripped out from underneath them, effectively leaving them sitting on six-figure paper losses or "negative equity" from the date of settlement.</div>
<div>
<br>Indeed this already happens to buyers of new properties today, albeit to a less dramatic extent, which is why in the absence of homebuyer grants for new builds developers often sell to self-managed super funds lured by tax incentives and bad advice from accountants, or to foreign buyers. Chris Bowen's assertion that buying new property is not "in any sense" more risky than buying established is discredited by all available research.<br><br>Most of the debate this week has really been about intergenerational equity rather than budget repair, which is sensible, but perhaps overlooks the high level of supply of construction in the pipeline.<br><br>In my opinion changing negative gearing rules - which after all, is a timing difference rather than a genuine tax concession - would generate close to zero additional tax revenue after behavioural change, reduced stamp duty excise and soaring public housing costs are accounted for. In any event, net rental losses have declined since even in nominal terms in 2008, while net rental profits have increased by well over 50 percent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Record residential construction boom: Pete Wargent

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<div>The latest Consumer Prices Index revealed some interesting trends in rental growth to December 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>At the national level rental growth of just +1.2 percent is the slowest we have seen since 1995, which makes a good deal of sense given the great surge in the number of investors and the construction response to rising dwelling prices. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Essentially this is the opposite of what happened in 1985 when investors exited the market following restrictive changes to tax legislation.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/29/B1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/01/29/B1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>City by city</strong></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div>In most quality locations, rental growth is simply following the cycle, slowing in response to a surge in both construction and the number of investor-owned dwellings.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Annual rental growth remains positive in Sydney (+2.3 per cent), Melbourne (+1.7 per cent), Brisbane (+1.0 per cent), Adelaide (+1.2 per cent), and Hobart (+1.1 per cent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It is a truism to say that there are diverging trends within those markets, particularly noteworthy being slowing rents in high density and high rise apartment complexes.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Rental growth has turned negative in Perth and Darwin, following an enormous surge through the mining boom, while Canberra has actually recorded moderately negative rents for the past three years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/29/B2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/01/29/B2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Long run trends</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>It pays to be wary about analysis calling "plummeting" rental growth, but it is true that the rental market will generally need to slow in order that the high levels of investor stock can be absorbed. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Eventually stronger rental price growth will return, but only once investor finance has pulled back, and the cycle does take time to work through. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The long run data shows the cyclical nature of rental growth by capital city. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/29/B3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/01/29/B3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Looking at rental growth by year it is clear that while rental price growth been strongest in Sydney over the past five years, over the past decade the resources states have seen the greatest increase in the cost of renting, some of which is now unwinding.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/29/C4.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/01/29/C4.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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National rental growth slowest since 1995: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>The November 2015 building approvals data show a sharp fall in dwelling approvals led by the volatile unit segment. Seasonally adjusted total dwelling approvals were -12.7 percent lower over the month, their largest monthly fall since July 2012.  </span></p>
<p><span>Year-on-year dwelling approvals are -8.4 percent lower and approvals have retracted to be -16.8 percent lower than their recent record highs. The data indicates a slowing in developer appetite for approvals and, given the slowing demand for mortgages from investors and slowing home value growth, it is a trend which is likely to continue over the coming months.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/11/Chart-1-580x181.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p> <img src="/images/2016/01/11/Chart-1-580x181.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>The decline in approvals in November was led by units however, house approvals, which haven’t seen the same level of acceleration as units, also recorded a fall over the month.  House approvals were -0.6 percent lower over the month and -2.2 percent lower year-on-year. Meanwhile, unit approvals declined by -24.0 percent in November and were -15.0 percent lower year-on-year.  Although the unit approvals series is much more volatile series than houses, it has now started trending lower with approvals -30.3 percent lower than their recent record high of 11,084 approvals in July 2015.  </span></p>
<p><span>House approvals are also trending lower, albeit at a more moderate pace, down -9.4 percent from their recent peak of 10,376 approvals in April 2015. The most recent Census in 2011 shows that 21.2 percent of detached houses are rented compared to 56.0 percent of units. The recent sharp fall in investor housing finance commitments is much more likely to impact on demand for new units than new houses and we may be seeing developers starting to react to this market shift.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/11/Chart-2-580x209.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2016/01/11/Chart-2-580x209.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The data on unit approvals by type further highlights the recent boom in high-rise (4 storeys and greater) unit approvals. Historically townhouses have been the product of choice for medium and high density developers however, over the past four years we have seen record high levels of high rise construction. Both monthly and annual data points to demand for high-rise approvals starting to fall although it should be noted that high-rise approvals still account for a majority of unit approvals. </span></p>
<p>High-rise approvals could be considered a bit of a double-edged sword for developers, in one instance they are considered the highest and best use of land in areas of strategic significance (eg along transport spines and in areas closed to major working nodes like the CBD) however, they are heavily reliant on achieving a particular level of presales.</p>
<p>From an economic sense they take longer to build so the economic benefit of the construction is stretched over a longer period of time however, they are ultimately less likely to end up constructed because much more financing is required and they are so dependent on adequate levels of presales.</p>
<p>It is likely that given units are much more likely to be purchased by investors and investor demand is now falling that a larger than normal proportion of these units will not end up constructed in this new phase of the housing cycle.  Historically around 98% of units approved are constructed compared to around 85% of units.</p>
<p>Much like home sales, values and investment related mortgage demand, we are now also seeing early signs of a slowing in dwelling approvals. Although approvals are slowing there is still a large number of unit projects under construction which should continue to provide a high level of economic benefit as the recent record high number of dwelling approvals continues for a few years. Of course the huge surge in housing construction at a time when population growth is slowing means that there is a better balance between housing supply and demand. In fact in certain areas there are now concerns about oversupply, particularly in inner city unit markets.</p>
<p>This is going to be a key theme to watch during 2016 particularly considering that we are already seeing investor demand falling and record low levels of rental growth. The next challenge will be when these units come to settlement will their initial valuation hold up and will the changed lending landscape mean that some purchasers will have to find larger deposits in order to settle.  Furthermore, if they purchased for investment purposes the next challenge may just be finding someone to rent the property.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
<p> </p>
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Will new housing approvals continue to ease through 2016? Cameron Kusher

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<p><span>GUEST OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>The fall in the volume of construction work done over QIII was larger than market consensus which was for a fall of 2.0% {CBA in line with consensus}.  However, the larger than expected fall follows an upwardly revised 2.1% increase in QII (previously reported as +1.6%)</span></p>
<p><span>There were plenty of familiar themes in today’s result – falling engineering construction was partially offset by a pickup in residential construction.  And non‑residential construction remains weak.  This has been the general pattern in the data for the past two years.  The chart opposite depicts these trends.</span></p>
<p><span>Engineering construction continues to fall as we work our way through the massive downturn in mining investment.  The drag on growth from falling mining investment will continue through 2015/16 and isn’t expected to lessen until 2016/17.  It’s the hangover from a once in a century mining boom.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/11/25/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-25%20at%203.08.10%20PM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/11/25/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-25%20at%203.08.10%20PM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p><span>Residential construction is powering along and is providing a partial offset to declining engineering construction.  We have a big lift in apartment construction underway across Australia.  And the forward looking indicators, namely the building approvals, suggest that this will continue deep into 2016.  Today’s figures show that the volume of dwelling construction is up 12.4% through the year.  The resultant increase in the housing stock from a big lift in residential construction will put some downward pressure on rent and dwelling price inflation over the next year.</span></p>
<p><span>The breakdown by public and private sectors construction shows that it’s important to look at the reality rather than necessarily believe the rhetoric.  Despite there being plenty of talk around big investment in public infrastructure the data shows that it simply isn’t the case; at least at the national level.  Public construction work done is down 9.8% through the year and has been a drag on GDP growth since 2010.   </span></p>
<p><span>The construction deflators show that inflation in the residential construction sector has picked up a little while it is negative in the engineering space.  It’s unsurprising really given residential construction has picked up sharply while engineering construction is in decline. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/11/25/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-25%20at%203.10.08%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/11/25/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-25%20at%203.10.08%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p><em><span>Gareth Aird is e</span><span>conomist at Commonwealth Bank and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/gareth-aird/14/790/905" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></em></p>
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Fall in the volume of construction work done over Q3: Gareth Aird

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<p><span>OK so the </span>ABS Building Activity<span> data series doesn't quite run back to 1788, but take a Captain Cook at this:</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/19/BA3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/19/BA3.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<div>Dwelling completions have surged to their highest ever level with more than 186,000 homes completed over the past year.<br><br>Furthermore there are presently some 184,000 dwellings under construction, which is the highest number in Australia's history.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Many pundits scoffed at the Reserve Bank's plan to stimulate construction, but prices are rising and supply has responded with a vengeance, despite inflation in the cost of trades and materials. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As the largest cities have become denser over time, this construction cycle has largely been a story of units, townhouses and apartments - the "attached dwellings" sector. </div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Building work done</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>It should be acknowledged that in spite of all the numbers that are being thrown around in relation to record home starts, record completions and record dwellings under construction, the residential construction boom has likely now nudged against its peak. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Despite being higher over the year the value of new residential building work done slipped -3.4 per cent lower in the June quarter to $12.8 billion, although the resi sector was held up to some extent by a long overdue +4.0 per cent surge in major renovations work. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There has not been much to shout about from the non-residential sector since the financial crisis stimulus. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/19/BA1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/19/BA1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>At the state level the economies of the most populous states have benefited from a building boom, but the value of building work done appears to have peaked, albeit remaining at a historically high level. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/19/BA2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/19/BA2.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Dwelling completions by state</span></strong><br><br><div>Where are new houses coming online? Mainly in Victoria with more than 31,000 houses completed over the past year.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/19/BA4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/19/BA4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>As for units and apartments there has been a strong completion rate across most of the larger states, with Victoria again leading the way in completing nearly 25,000 units over the past year. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/19/BA5.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/19/BA5.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Although it will be the topic of a separate blog post, these figures show why the "Sydney oversupply" meme has been wide of the mark. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The above charts represent state level figures, and it is clear that the supply of new units and apartments has ramped up impressively over the past four years.<br><br>But despite the improvement, total dwelling completions in New South Wales of 144,000 dwellings is barely keeping pace with a population which has surged by close to 400,000 over that time, while this follows on from a weak half decade of completions in the harbour city which ran from 2005.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>After accounting for stock obsolescence and demolitions, the thousands of apartments which are left vacant, and the fact that close to half of new dwellings in NSW over that time have been units (which typically house only provide accommodation for a couple)...well, there's not much overbuilding in aggregate to be found in those numbers, even if the rentals market is now fully supplied.<br><br>It is much more difficult for a growing city with a population the size of Greater Sydney (approaching 5 million) to overbuild housing than it is for a city the size of, say, Belfast, although Melbourne is certainly giving its best shot.<br><br>For all that, there are of course plenty of sub-regions around Australia with localised oversupply, and particularly so the case of higher-density dwellings. </div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Commencements peak at record high</span></strong><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>
<div>Total commencements have increased by +14 per cent over the past year to a new high of nearly 210,000.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It was another strong quarter in June, but the 53,314 commencements result was below that of two of the preceding three quarters, and it is forecast that commencements will now decline through 2015/16.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/19/BA6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/10/19/BA6.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>Finally, there are 184,000 dwellings under construction at the present time, which is the highest figure in Australia's history. </span></p>
<p><span>Click to enlarge</span></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/19/BA7.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>This should keep the residential construction sector operating at or close to its full capacity for some time to come.</span></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
</div>
</div>
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Strongest homebuilding since 1788: Pete Wargent

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<p><span lang="EN-US">There's a significant cooling of expectations for residential construction - and price growth - in the upcoming December quarter, according to t</span>he ANZ/Property Council Survey.</p>
<p>The ANZ expects housing starts to peak at 215,000 in the year to December and ease back to a still elevated 200,000 by end of 2016.</p>
<p><span>ANZ senior economist David Cannington said the latest survey taken after Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister showed a significant shift in outlook for residential property.</span></p>
<p><span>"The property sector expects the growth to disappear over the next 12 months," he told the <em>Australian Financial Review</em>.</span><br><br>The nation’s leading measure of confidence in the property industry - which accounts for 11.5 per cent of GDP - was completed by over 2200 respondents across Australia this quarter.</p>
<p><span lang="EN-US">While nationally confidence remains well in the positive range, it has edged downwards over the four quarters for 2015.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">New South Wales still leads the nation in terms of confidence and Victoria is holding steady.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Queensland, the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory all recorded rises in confidence for the quarter.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Tasmania and South Australia fell while Western Australia flatlined.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Property Council of Australia Chief Executive Ken Morrison said the results should be closely read by policymakers.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">“The economy has relied on strong housing construction, so any softening would have a broader national impact particularly in terms of jobs and economic activity,” Mr Morrison said.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"> “In the December quarter we saw a drop in debt finance availability expectations across the board, which is evidence that our regulatory safeguards are functioning as intended.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">“We need to keep a close watch on the many factors impacting activity levels, particularly in residential construction.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">“Only recently have we started to chip away at the housing supply deficit that built up over a decade as supply fell well short of demand.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">“Housing affordability into the future hinges on maintaining a high level of new residential construction to meet the demands of our growing population.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">“The results from this survey make the task of removing the major roadblocks to further growth in the property industry more urgent.”</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span>ANZ co-head of Australian Economics Cherelle Murphy noted respondents in the majority of states including NSW and Victoria (which together contribute more than 50% of Australia’s GDP) are less optimistic than 12 months ago. </span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span>"Those in the residential sector recorded a larger decline in confidence in the last 12 months than any of the commercial property sectors.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span>“As the housing sector softens, support to aggregate employment growth from hiring in construction and a range of services industries benefiting from housing activity is also expected to wane.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span>“Without above average employment outcomes in the rest of the economy, the unemployment rate could push higher."</span></p>
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