There are few property developers nationally that can boast a workbook like the ASX-listed developer Cedar Woods. With eight apartment buildings under construction across four states, Cedar Woods is well positioned to take advantage of what Managing Director Nathan Blackburne says is a “national shortage of apartments.”

Cedar Woods purposefully has a diversified portfolio of apartments, townhouses, commercial, and residential communities across the country, enabling the business to remain resilient through market cycles and respond to shifting buyer demand.

Blackburne says there is a great shortfall of housing of all typologies, none more so for apartments. He says that is the case particularly in Perth, where the lack of new apartment projects has been particularly acute.

“Perth has been more affected than Melbourne,” Blackburne explains, noting that over the past five years, “very few new apartment projects” have been launched in either city. Historically, apartments made up around 20 per cent of new housing nationally. Cedar Woods estimates that figure has fallen to around 10 per cent today, a gap they believe must close.

<h2>Apartment appeal rebounding as supply shrinks</h2>

There are signs the tide is turning however. Blackburne says buyer apartment sentiment really picked up in mid 2025. “In October we saw our strongest sales month for apartments in Perth.” The buyer demand has driven their Subiaco apartment development, Incontro, to nearly 70 per cent sold. The increased buyer sentiment has strengthened Cedar Woods’ confidence in bringing forward the next apartment project in Western Australia, a three tower development planned for the prime site on Upham Street in Subiaco, adjacent to Incontro.

Demand is being driven by several factors; the lack of new apartments coming to the market, the increased demand with migration far outstripping the aforementioned supply, and the appetite to live closer to the city.

“Over the past three years, Perth’s population has grown by around 250,000 people, while only around 50,000 dwellings have been delivered,” Blackburne says, adding that more than twice that number would be needed just to keep up.&nbsp;

He said that many buyers are being forced to the urban fringe because of the greater supply of land product, but that, Blackburne argues, is pushing the fringe further out and motivating a re-evaluation of the value of inner- and middle-suburb apartments.

Demographic shifts are helping drive this rethink. Cedar Woods is seeing more boomers downsizing, young professionals entering the market, and a rising number of single-person households. There’s also a growing trend of parents buying apartments for teenage children, motivated by fears that housing prices will become out of reach. “It’s not only a strong investment now, but it can serve as a first home when their children move out.”

<h2>National diversification strategy</h2>

Cedar Woods’ strategy is not limited to Perth. Blackburne outlines their aim to diversify by price point, product type, and geography, which “gives us a broad customer base and smoother earnings profile.” Throughout their markets, they’re combining apartments, townhouses, and masterplanned communities, allowing flexibility to pivot toward undersupplied segments as demand evolves.

In Victoria, Cedar Woods is pressing ahead with a major site in Fairfield, just northeast of Melbourne’s CBD, a site which Blackburne says the company has had its sights on for many years. They are planning to deliver three towers with over 300 apartments, with the plans likely to be submitted in early 2026.

Blackburne also expresses optimism about broader inner-Melbourne supply dynamics. 
 
“While Melbourne’s apartment market is better supplied than Perth’s, and population growth remains strong, Cedar Woods believes the current stock will be absorbed quickly,” Blackburne says, however he warns that policy disincentives remain. “In Victoria … there are quite a lot of obstacles for apartment buyers,” he says, adding that the industry is working with the state government to “remove those barriers” and avert prolonged undersupply.

Cedar Woods has plans on the desks of the VIC Government to develop a 20-storey tower in Southbank, in the heart of Melbourne’s arts precinct. Designed by Rothelowman, the proposed tower will deliver 180 apartments, ranging from studios to three-bedrooms, along with creative amenity space devoted to arts and digital industries, a food and drink tenancy at street level, and a 700sqm recreation deck with indoor lounge space will provide a resident amenity hub.

Blackburne frames the project as a response to Melbourne’s growing undersupply of signature inner-city living. “We saw a thematic: a looming undersupply in inner-Melbourne, particularly in high-quality apartments, and wanted to capitalise on that,” he says. The site’s proximity to the Melbourne Arts Precinct, key tram lines, and Southbank’s cultural fabric makes it especially appealing, Blackburne says.

<h2>Charting the course forward</h2>

On top of the apartment developments underway and planned in Perth and Melbourne, Cedar Woods has a multi-stage apartment development in Brisbane’s Woolloowin, and several years remaining on their masterplanned communities in Williams Landing in Melbourne and Glenside in Adelaide, both of which offer a mix of apartments and townhouses.

Blackburne says the developer has been able to mitigate some of the macro risks currently at play in the new development space, particularly in the construction sector.

“Cedar Woods has been able to make many apartment projects work because of good buying of the raw land in the first place, as well as its strong pipeline of apartment projects, enabling the company to attract builders to build deep, multi-year relationships.”&nbsp;

For Cedar Woods, 2026 is set to be significant, with anticipated approvals and submissions laying the groundwork for fresh apartment supply and multiple launches in 2027.

&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Cedar Woods ramps up apartment development amid Australia’s deepening housing shortfall

Rockdale has long been characterized as a suburb on the cusp. Well-located, well-connected, but historically underserved by modern apartment offerings.

It has everything going for it: outstanding connectivity to the Sydney CBD, just four train stops to Central Station, strong local amenity anchored by Roc​kdale Plaza and a growing main-street dining scene, and enviable proximity to Brighton-Le-Sands. The six-kilometre beachfront is lined with bayside restaurants, cafés, and walking paths, giving residents a lifestyle typically associated with much more expensive coastal suburbs.

What Rock​dale has lacked is high-quality contemporary apartments. Most existing developments date back several decades, with floorplans that no longer support modern living needs, and buildings constructed long before today’s standards in engineering, efficiency, and sustainability.

Lender, fund manager and apartment developer Princeton identified the gap early. Seeing all the right ingredients in Rockd​ale, transport, lifestyle, retail, and affordability, they set out to deliver what the suburb was missing. Their answer is <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marque-rockdale-602-608-princes-highway-rockdale-nsw-2216">Marque Rockdale</a>, a collection of 58 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments now nearing completion just a short walk from Ro​ckdale Plaza, home to over 50 specialist retailers and anchored by&nbsp;Woolworths, Big W and Aldi.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136442 project_image_fid=355216]

Understanding they would be resetting the benchmark for the area, Princeton focused on ensuring buyers received best-in-class quality, longevity, and protection.

A major step was securing the sought-after Latent Defects Insurance policy from Resilience Insurance. This policy protects apartment buyers from structural or waterproofing defects for the first 10 years of the building’s lifecycle. Crucially, it is first-response insurance, meaning that if an issue arises, the insurer pays immediately for remediation—rather than waiting for lengthy investigations to determine fault before work can begin. For purchasers, it offers an unprecedented layer of security rarely seen in Sydney apartment projects.

During construction, independent building inspection firm SDSS has been providing Technical Inspection Services, bringing highly specialised construction experts on-site at key stages to ensure workmanship meets the highest standards. The project is being built by Coplex, an iCIRT-rated construction company, and throughout the build SDSS has frequently referred to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marque-rockdale-602-608-princes-highway-rockdale-nsw-2216">Marque Rockdale</a> as one of the best projects currently on their books.

Princeton also doubled down on comfort, acoustics, and livability.&nbsp;As well as being the only building along Princes Highway with a landscaped buffer between the building and the road, Princeton has purposefully included double-glazed windows in all apartments to reduce noise.

Apartments feature double-glazed, noise-reducing windows and ducted air conditioning in every residence.&nbsp;In addition to the project’s transport convenience, Princeton has partnered with GoGet Car Share to provide a dedicated GoGet vehicle housed permanently within the building. Residents will receive a free annual GoGet membership, paying only usage fees, offering a flexible alternative to owning a second car and enhancing the project’s sustainability credentials.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136442 project_image_fid=277075]

Residents will enjoy an exclusive rooftop oasis, purpose-designed as an extension of their living space. The communal rooftop includes BBQ facilities and outdoor entertaining areas, a&nbsp;pergola-shaded dining zone, a dedicated children’s play space, and a landscaped herb garden.

Princeton and Coplex is approaching completion of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marque-rockdale-602-608-princes-highway-rockdale-nsw-2216">Marque Rockdale</a>, and are expecting residents to move in early in the new year. The mix of apartment configurations and price points have been a hit with young professionals, those who need to commute to the CBD, and families who appreciate doorstep amenity.

“Marque is a place where residents will be proud to call it home," Princeton Head of Development George Young says.

"We’ve worked really hard with Coplex and our design team to deliver an incredible building for the future home owners to make their own. The homes are all designed to allow the residents to make it their own, a place to belong and live a stylish urban life."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=136442]

Marque Rockdale sets a new standard of apartment living in Sydney's south

Plans to revitalize the&nbsp;long-established Benowa Gardens Shopping Centre into a mixed-use community combining living, shopping, dining, health and wellbeing facilities, have been proposed to the Gold Coast City Council.

The Benowa Gardens Urban Village proposal by Benowa Gardens Holdings seeks to transform the 17,660 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/203-ashmore-road-benowa-qld-4217">203 Ashmore Road</a> into a contemporary, sustainable destination that reflects global trends in modern community design while retaining the familiar local character residents value.

The site is bordered by Ashmore and Benowa Roads and Carrara, with ready access to Pindara private hospital, four schools, TAFE, sports fields and the nearby Botanic Gardens.

Benowa Gardens Holdings is seeking a preliminary Council approval only for its proposed masterplan and variations to the site’s Neighbourhood Centre zoning.&nbsp; 
Formal Public Exhibition commenced Friday and also marks the start of comprehensive community consultation with surroundings residents, schools, P&amp;Cs, existing retailers, nearby sporting clubs, arts groups and Botanic Gardens volunteers.

Designed by Neylan Architecture, the masterplan envisions around 413 new apartments, complemented by upgraded retail, dining, and wellness amenities as part of 10,000 sqm of retail, and 9,630 sqm of office space/medical suites.

The development will feature green open spaces, shaded promenades, landscaped terraces, pedestrian walkways, and expanded healthcare and lifestyle services in synergy with the neighbouring Pindara Private Hospital and local schools.

<img alt="Benowa" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="244f4d54-2e67-4141-92b8-78d5735f47c2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-26%20at%2012.47.34%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=FmF5lzhpwVZc7POsdB770TJ_Bf2c0od8" />

“This concept embraces the way people increasingly want to live - safely, conveniently, and within strong local communities,” said Patrick Lu, Director of Benowa Gardens Holding.

“Benowa Gardens will set a new benchmark for integrated living on the Gold Coast. It’s a thoughtful, community-minded evolution that brings global best practice in urban design to one of the city’s most established areas.”

Lu said this isn’t just a redevelopment, it’s a renewal with purpose.

“Benowa Gardens has served the community for decades. Our goal is to ensure it continues to do so for generations to come, as a lively, connected Urban Village where people can truly live, work and thrive. We’re already talking to school leaders and the community to seek their feedback on our proposal, and have taken on board their ideas to improve student safety with additional “traffic calming” measures on Carrara Street. We’re conducting meaningful and sincere consultations and want to play our role in preserving and enhancing the local community."

The proposed redevelopment aims to deliver tangible benefits across the Benowa and wider Gold Coast community, including:

<ul>
	<li>Improvement of retail amenity, to capture the under-served local market demand and keep the local business at their local shopping centre.</li>
	<li>Housing diversity; offering a range of apartment types for key workers, downsizers, and local families who wish to remain in the area.</li>
	<li>Enhanced shopping and dining; revitalised retail spaces designed to support local businesses and attract more visitors.</li>
	<li>Health and wellbeing access; additional medical and wellness amenities to complement existing local facilities.</li>
	<li>Improved traffic flow and access; two new access points, upgraded intersections, upgrade pedestrian pathway’s signal and proposed upgrade of pedestrian and cycle connections/space to improve safety and convenience, especially for school children.</li>
	<li>Environmental sustainability; energy-efficient design, green rooftops, and water-sensitive landscaping to reduce emissions and enhance comfort.</li>
	<li>Local jobs and investment; supporting hundreds of construction and long-term roles while stimulating local economic growth.</li>
</ul>

The group behind the project boasts extensive experience in the property development industry, both in Australia and international markets. Over the past 23 years, the group has been involved in the development and management of a diverse portfolio of assets including residential dwellings, shopping centres, bulky-goods stores, community and medical facilities, childcare centres, offices, hotels, and taverns, across Brisbane, Ipswich, and the Gold Coast.

Benowa Gardens to become new mixed-use urban village

Demand for townhouses in Melbourne’s inner west has surged as buyers seek the elusive combination of space, affordability, and location.&nbsp;

With family-first apartments increasingly rare and standalone homes often out of reach, townhouses have emerged as the new sweet spot, delivering generous living areas with lower maintenance needs within close proximity to the Melbourne CBD.&nbsp;

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/kings-lane-south-kingsville-50-58-new-street-south-kingsville-vic-3015">Kings Lane</a>, the new under-construction townhouse development by the family-owned developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/blue-run">Blue Run</a>&nbsp;in South Kingsville, responds directly to this trend. Comprising just 25 residences designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, the project offers a compelling alternative to both apartment downsizers and family upsizers. With three-bedroom homes priced under $1 million, it presents one of the area’s rare attainable pathways to townhouse living less than eight kilometres from the CBD.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145042 project_image_fid=355147]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/south-kingsville-vic-3015">South Kingsville</a> itself is quietly becoming one of Melbourne’s most dynamic pockets of urban renewal. Flanked by the established appeal of Yarraville, Newport and Williamstown, the suburb balances quiet, village-like streetscapes with major infrastructure upgrades and a growing slate of retail, dining and lifestyle amenity.&nbsp;

Kings Lane occupies a well-connected site at 50–58 New Street, just off Blackshaws Road and within walking distance of the emerging Union Quarter precinct, a major retail destination anchored by Woolworths, specialty food outlets and wellness services.

A 400-metre stroll brings residents to the Vernon Street shops, a local favourite known for its mix of independent grocers, cafes and family-run eateries. For broader shopping options, Altona Gate Shopping Centre and Yarraville Square are both within a short drive. Spotswood IGA and the Williamstown retail strip further broaden the convenience of daily essentials.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145042 project_image_fid=355139]

Dining options in the area lean toward eclectic and community-driven, with standouts like Rocco’s Deli, Dad and Dave’s, and Pizza d’ASPORTO offering a range of casual and elevated menus. Cafés such as Hudson Road Wine &amp; Beer and Blacksheep Coffee add to the lively yet local feel of the neighbourhood.

Green space is another hallmark of life at Kings Lane. Edwards Reserve is close enough for morning walks or casual sport, while larger parks like Newport Lakes, Yarraville Gardens, and Cruickshank Park are all a few minutes’ drive away. More than half of the nine-hectares of new green space or parkland being created as part of the West Gate tunnel works is located just at the end of New Street, the same street as Kings Lane.

&nbsp;

For those with school-age children, South Kingsville is home to a range of quality childcare centres and schools, including Kingsville Primary, Spotswood Primary, and Williamstown North Primary. Community Children’s childcare and South Kingsville Preschool are nearby, making the suburb particularly attractive to young families.

Transport links continue to improve, with Spotswood Station and the West Gate Freeway both within a five-minute radius. Future upgrades, including the proposed sky rail for Newport and Spotswood, and the delivery of the West Gate Tunnel project, promise even better access to the CBD and Melbourne Airport in the years to come.

Kings Lane's 25 all-electric townhouses are currently under construction, and will complete in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145042]

Staff Writer

Kings Lane townhouses offers rare value in Melbourne's thriving inner west

Developer-builder <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/billbergia">Billbergia</a> has set a new apartment price record for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/rhodes-nsw-2138">Rhodes</a>, a suburb the company has been instrumental in transforming over the past two decades.

The milestone follows the delivery of thousands of apartments across the harbourside peninsula, culminating in the $4.5 million sale of a 220 sqm penthouse in the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/rhodes-central-oasis-39-marquet-street-rhodes-nsw-2138">Rhodes Central Oasis</a> building, which Billbergia completed earlier this year. It is the first apartment in Rhodes to surpass not only the $4 million mark for settled sales, but also the $3 million mark, eclipsing the previous $2.75 million record set in 2021.

The purchaser had originally secured several apartments in the 40-storey tower off the plan as investments. During settlement, she spent more time in the Rhodes area and was so impressed with the building that she decided to downsize from her Northbridge home into the four-bedroom plus MPR penthouse.

The sale underscores the long-term work Billbergia has undertaken in Rhodes since the early 2000s. The company, rated 4.5 Gold Stars under the NSW iCIRT system, identifying it as one of the state’s most trustworthy and financially secure developers, was a pioneer of the area’s urban renewal. What was once a heavily industrial waterfront has become one of Sydney’s most successful examples of transit-oriented development.

<img alt="Billbergia" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="56093d7f-db18-42f4-bf9b-115bdf76f5f3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-26%20at%2011.10.06%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=pca77Mr.H83nwXbJexmaLUAqBewtQ7d9" />

Billbergia is now driving the peninsula’s next major evolution: the most ambitious project in its nearly four-decade history. They are planning the Rhodes Bay Masterplan, an eight-tower, mixed-use precinct on Leeds Street. Currently with the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority which is now championing large-scale projects across the state, the Rhodes Bay Masterplan lays the groundwork for a generational reshaping of this important pocket of Sydney’s Inner West.

The masterplan spans more than 31,000 sqm of amalgamated industrial land along the foreshore, land that has been privately held and inaccessible to the community for more than a century. According to Billbergia’s Development Director, Saul Moran, reclaiming this land for public use is central to the company’s vision. 
 
“What’s so exciting is that we have over 300 metres of privately-held industrialised waterfront, land that’s been locked away for more than 100 years, which we’re bringing back to the community,” he says. “It’s taken many years to assemble sites like these, and the goal now is to transform them into meaningful public space where new homes can be built in an integrated, amenity-rich setting.”

At full completion, the Rhodes Bay Masterplan is expected to deliver over 2000 apartments, with the first 1000 to be completed by 2029. Billbergia’s design focused on nine slender towers, so they could give back more to the ground plane. There will be more than 16,000sq m of new parkland and recreation space, including sports fields, a foreshore play area and waterfront green links. Around 14,600 sqm of retail is also proposed, extending the precinct’s role as a true mixed-use hub.

<img alt="Rhodes Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="240ffc41-4f26-421a-9606-5c56f6fc2d93" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-26%20at%2011.05.48%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=BkBxZr7S8CAt1vgNa8AF3zjdc3YuVh0L" />

“Density only works when it’s paired with amenity, transport and open space, and that’s what’s made Rhodes such an amazing success story,” Moran says, adding that the demographic shift Billbergia has seen over the last two decades has informed their future development pipeline in the suburb.

“Rhodes has moved from being largely an investor market to a strong owner-occupier community,” Moran says. “There’s real demand for three-bedroom homes, flexible intergenerational layouts, and apartments people can grow into.”

&nbsp;“We’re designing taller, more slender towers to free up the ground level for sport, recreation and green space. High-density communities thrive when people have the best backyards in Australia, and that’s what we want to create here.”

Demand remains robust, evidenced by Billbergia’s recent results. “We achieved a record sale across the entirety of Rhodes Central just last week,” Moran says. “It shows the depth of confidence buyers have in what’s being built here.”

Billbergia’s vertically integrated model allows them to overcome the recent cost escalation and challenges in the build environment. “Having an in-house construction team lets us control feasibility, value management and quality from day one,” Moran says. “It’s critical in the current market, where construction escalation is at the forefront of every project’s viability.”

The company is also leveraging the NSW Government’s new Housing Delivery Authority process, which Moran describes as a more efficient pathway without compromising design standards. 
 
“We’re really applauding the NSW Government for its efforts to increase housing supply. There’s been a remarkable improvement in how they’re helping deliver more homes, more quickly.”

Billbergia has already commenced construction of Stage One of the Rhodes Bay masterplan. They will be lodging the State Significant Development Application before Christmas.

“We’re moving quickly, but with due care,” Moran says. “This is a generational precinct, and it needs to be done right.”

Billbergia smashes suburb record as Rhodes transformation continues

Regional Markets

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EXPERT OBSERVER

I’ve been telling our customers for the past two years that the outstanding property market in Australia is Regional Victoria.

And multiple data sources continue to support the view that anyone seeking affordable property, good rental yields and in particular great capital growth would be wise to consider Regional Victoria.

There is no other market jurisdiction in Australia that has delivered so many locations with double-digit growth in their median prices in the past 12 months. Equally, Regional Victoria is a national leader on locations with strong long-term capital growth rates.

The regional areas of Victoria were also prominent in the latest Pain and Gain Report from CoreLogic which highlights the number of properties sold for a profit in the September 2019 Quarter.

Why is Regional Victoria doing so well? Partly it’s because Victoria is the No.1 economy in the nation. The latest State of the States report from CommSec confirms Victoria as the leading economic performer in the nation, with New South Wales slipping down the rankings to third.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5559]

And partly it’s because Victoria continues to be the No.1 state for population growth, gaining significantly from both overseas and interstate migration.

Victoria’s ranking as the No.1 economy and population growth state isn’t just about Melbourne – the regions have been major contributors to the state’s success.

Recent data on unemployment showed that Regional Victoria leads the states in jobs growth and has the lowest unemployment rate. ABS data shows that 20,000 people found work in regional Victoria in the three months to November.

Regional Victoria’s jobless rate is 3.7% – the lowest in the nation and well below the average regional rate of 5.1%. In the past five years, regional Victoria’s unemployment rate has decreased by 2.9 percentage points.

This is translating into exceptional performance in real estate.

CoreLogic’s quarterly Pain and Gain report (which compares the prices of properties sold in the September Quarter with their previous sale) found that Hobart was the national leader – 98% of houses sold made a profit.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=27406]

But close behind in second place was Regional Victoria, where 97% of houses sold for a price higher than the vendors paid previously (ahead of Melbourne’s 96% and Sydney’s 92% - and the national average of 90%).

In terms of apartments, Regional Victoria ranked third in the national (94%), well above the national average of 80%, Sydney’s 87% and Melbourne’s 85%.

The out-performance of Regional Victoria locations shows up in price growth data for the past year and also for the past decade.

Dozens of Regional Victorian locations have recorded double-digit growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months.

Ballarat has been particularly outstanding, with Ballarat Central (13%), Brown Hill (20%), Golden Point (18%), Lake Wendouree (11%), Mt Pleasant (21%) and Wendouree (10%) all producing strong price growth.

The City of Greater Geelong also produced multiple growth leaders, including Barwon Heads (12%), Bell Park (12%) and Drysdale (20%).

Other high-growth locations were spread around the state, including Newborough (16%), Wonthaggi (14%), Heathcote in Bendigo (17%), Maldon (17%), Irymple near Mildura (23%), Daylesford (13%) and Mansfield (13%).

This kind of growth in not a one-off event – many Regional Victorian locations have long-term capital growth rates above 7% per year, with some nudging 9% per year – which puts them alongside the best in the nation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=29358]

The City of Greater Geelong, Ballarat and the Macedon Ranges LGA all have multiple locations with capital growth rates between 7% and 9% per year.

Lake Wendouree in Ballarat has averaged 8.9%, while Woodend (Macedon Ranges) and Norlane (Geelong) have both averaged 8.7% per year.

Others with capital growth rates above 8% per year include Beveridge, Daylesford, Maldon, Geelong (the suburb), Kyneton and Herne Hill (Geelong).

TERRY RYDER is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Regional Victoria is Australia's most outstanding property market: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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This is the strongest Regional Queensland market in the six years that Hotspotting has been conducting its quarterly surveys of sales activity and prices. The number of rising markets is the highest recorded, by a considerable margin, and property values are growing.

We have identified 72 locations with rising sales activity, a remarkable result in the year of the pandemic. Locations across the state are benefiting from the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle and/or the improvement in the resources sector. Vacancies are ultra-low in most of these places. 

There are seven regional cities with five or more suburbs with forward momentum in sales activity: the Sunshine Coast, the Gold Coast, Toowoomba, Mackay, Rockhampton, Gladstone and Townsville. These cities, plus smaller regional centres like Gympie, Emerald, Warwick, Kingaroy and Dalby, all have markets trending in the right direction for sustained price growth.

The Sunshine Coast is again the standout location, but other regional markets are emerging, notably the important inland city of Toowoomba. And we are seeing recovery in resources-related centres which have spent several years in downturn, including Gladstone, Mount Isa and Emerald.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=24532]

The exceptions to the trend of upwardly-mobile markets are Cairns and the Fraser Coast, neither of which appear to be experiencing the uplift seen elsewhere. 

The Sunshine Coast continues to be one the nation’s outstanding property markets. There are 14 suburbs with rising sales activity and seven with consistent sales volumes. Neighbouring Noosa has two growth suburbs.

The Sunshine Coast is outperforming the Gold Coast, which is a much larger city but has only seven growth suburbs, as well as 12 consistent ones.

Toowoomba is the new contender, as its economy rises on the back of significant new infrastructure. Eight suburbs have rising sales activity and we expect prices to rise considerably.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6769]

Rockhampton, Gladstone, Mackay and Townsville each has between five and seven suburbs with rising momentum.

Gladstone’s re-emergence as a growth market is notable, after half a dozen years in downturn: vacancies are now low, sales activity is picking up and prices are now responding.

Markets across Regional Queensland are performing well on price growth: almost three-quarters of locations across Regional Queensland have had annual growth in their median house prices and a similar number of towns and suburbs have had uplift in the most recent quarter.

The Sunshine Coast continues to impress as one of the nation’s strongest markets, with price uplift in particular in the top end of the markets. 

Sunshine Beach, the most expensive suburb on the coast, has recorded a 33% annual rise in its median house price, now $1,750,000. The canal-based suburb of Minyama has increased 29% in the past 12 months to $1,190,000. Yandina (median house price $730,000) has increased 30%.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7974]

The market in and around Noosa is a particular standout, with Sunshine Beach up 33%, Sunrise Beach up 17% and Noosaville up 12%. Mooloolaba (median price $900,000) has risen 10% and Moffat Beach (median price $910,000) is up 12%.

The Gold Coast has some notable growth performances also, with Worongary (30%), Runaway Bay (14%), Miami (12%), Arundel (15%) and Burleigh Heads (15%) all recording growth annual growth.

A number of Central Queensland are rising, including Mackay (where Andergrove, Blacks Beach, South Mackay and North Mackay have all recorded double-digit annual growth) and Rockhampton (where Berserker has led the growth with a 27% increase).

Gladstone continues to deliver evidence of recovery from a lengthy downturn, with median house price growth in suburbs such as Calliope (10%), Clinton (12%), West Gladstone (18%) and Tannum Sands (11%). 

Central Queensland resources towns like Moranbah (up 23%) and Clermont (up 10%) are also recovering, albeit from a very low base. Chinchilla on the Western Downs is in a similar position, with its median house price rising 15% in the past year after several years of decline.

TERRY RYDER is the founder of hotspotting.com.au 
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Strongest regional Queensland market in six years: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT INSIGHT

As many parts of rural Australia emerge from long running drought conditions, and the mining sector benefits from higher commodity prices and a lift in investment, many rural areas are recording a surge in housing prices.

Regional housing markets have been at the centre of attention through 2020, due to housing values outpacing their capital city counterparts. Broadly, housing values across regional Australia (+7.9%) increased by more than four times the growth rate recorded across the combined capital city regions (+1.7%) over the twelve months to January 2021.

Most of the reporting on regional areas around the country has focussed on the main population centres outside of the capital cities. These include high profile coastal regions such as Byron and Noosa, or semi-rural markets like the wine regions and hinterland locations close to the major metro regions. This is understandable, given their large populations and popularity. Most of these regions have shown substantial rises in house values over the past year.

However, many of Australia’s in-land rural markets are also showing strong housing market conditions. These areas generally do not provide commuting options back to major working nodes, nor the broad-based lifestyle appeal of coastal markets or hinterland locations. But they do provide a variety of other benefits such as low housing prices, low population densities and a rural lifestyle that may appeal to many. These regions tend to exist within their own economic ecosystem, driven by localised factors including climatic conditions such as drought, as well as local economic drivers like agriculture, mining operations and tourism, infrastructure investment or government services.

The analysis below focuses on the annul change in house values across rural in-land council regions. These areas are all separated from the coastline and are located at least 200km from the GPO of the capital city metro regions. Many of these in- land rural areas of Australia have emerged from long running drought conditions, and others are benefitting from higher commodity prices, which has driven a lift in mining related investment. Some are major service centres that provide essential amenities for surrounding areas.

Council areas with fewer than 20 house sales over the past year have been excluded from the analysis. Many of these markets are moving out of a period of extended decline, mostly due to either drought conditions or the mining downturn.

The rise in values is likely to be a welcome development for long-term home owners in the area. 41 of the 91 council regions analysed recorded house values that remained at least 10% below their historic highs. On the flipside, 32 of the 91 regions had house values tracking at record highs in January 2021.

Council regions where housing values were at record highs were generally skewed towards the largest rural population centres, where economic conditions generally show greater diversity. Seven of the ten largest population centres recorded house values at historical highs. Council regions recording the strongest growth conditions were mixed across Australia’s in-land rural markets, however areas of Central West and North Western Queensland comprised four of the top five regions for the largest rise in house values over the past year.

Winton topped the list where CoreLogic estimates house values surged 40.5% over the twelve months ending January. Only 21 house sales were recorded within the Winton council area over the past year, however that was a 62% lift on sales activity over the prior year, demonstrating a substantial lift in demand, albeit from a small base. Nearby Cloncurry showed a similar result, with values rising 37.1% over the year. This was on the back of sales activity lifting 38.7% to reach 43 house sales last year.

Focussing on the largest in-land rural population centres, the strongest performing market over the past year has been Mount Isa, where house values are up 23.1%. Despite the strong gains, house values remain 39.3% below their 2013 peak at Mount Isa, highlighting the previous weak conditions that have were evident between mid-2013 through to the market finding a floor in August 2019.

<a href="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/lawless_11.jpg" target="_blank"><img alt="" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/lawless_11.jpg" style="width: 849px; height: 450px;"></a>

Thirteen of the twenty largest rural in-land population centres have values tracking at record highs in January 2021, with most of these areas located in New South Wales or Victoria.

The larger rural population centres arguably show less risk in housing market trends due to their more diversified economies, however this is not always the case. Queensland’s Western Downs council is a case in point: despite having the seventh largest in-land rural population base (34,585 residents), the economy is mainly centred on agriculture, and house values remain 28.3% below their 2013 peak. Values are once again rising though, up 6.2% over the past twelve months, as the region emerges from a long running drought.

<a href="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/lawless_2.jpg" target="_blank"><img alt="" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/lawless_2.jpg" style="width: 848px; height: 447px;"></a>

Overall, Australia’s in-land rural markets offer up a diverse array of living options, generally with low price tags. The highest median house value was recorded for houses within the Alpine council area at $520,588 which is about $280,000 less than Greater Melbourne’s median house value and almost $500,000 less than Sydney’s. Median house values range down to less than $90,000 in the council areas of Coonamble ($86,139), Bourke ($89,465), Murweh ($89,569) and Blackall-Tambo ($89,687). Such sheer affordability is likely to be an attraction for some buyers, however prospective city folk interested in relocating to the rural areas of Australia might be better off ‘testing the waters’ by renting before buying... just to make sure the rural lifestyle is really their cup of tea.

TIM LAWLESS is the Research Director at CoreLogic
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As many parts of rural Australia emerge from long running drought conditions alongside other factors many rural areas are recording a surge in housing prices

tlawless

Regional Australian housing market sees price surge: Tim Lawless

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EXPERT INSIGHT

The combination of reopening unleashing pent up demand, an avalanche of government incentives (including stamp duty concessions, various state support measures, HomeBuilder and an expansion of the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme), a further easing in lending standards on the way for early this year (with the removal of responsible lending obligations), record low mortgage rates, the desire to "escape from the city" helped along by ongoing bank payment holidays and Government income support measures averted a sharp fall in prices that would otherwise have followed from higher unemployment and underemployment, weak inner city rental markets and the hit to immigration and brought forward demand from first home buyers and owner occupiers. As a result property prices have turned up far earlier than I had been expecting and there appears to be a bit of FOMO (or the “fear of missing out”) creeping into some markets and pushing them higher.

At the current rate of increase average capital city dwelling prices will surpass their September 2017 record high by March, although this masks a wide divergence with: record highs already in Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra and in average regional home prices; Perth and Darwin remaining well down on their 2014 highs; and Sydney and Melbourne prices having been range bound since 2017.  

Outlook

Australian home prices are likely to continue to rise through 2021 being boosted by record low mortgage rates, government home buyer incentives and with the recovery in the economy expected to offset the phasing down of income support measures and bank payment holidays and some incentives. As a result average capital city home prices are expected to rise by around 5% through the year. While first home buyer incentives are likely to be reduced seeing a decline in first home buyer demand later in the year, investor interest is expected to pick up.

However, the outlook is widely divergent across cities, within cities and across units versus houses.

<img alt="" height="355" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/amp_jan_2.png" width="545">

The downside risks relate to: renewed coronavirus related lockdowns with the latest being in Perth although so far new case numbers seem to be getting kept down and vaccines should help head off this risk entirely later in the year; higher unemployment and underemployment and distressed sales as government income and bank support measures wind down although the risk on this front are rapidly diminishing; falling rents and high vacancy rates in inner city Melbourne and Sydney weighing on investors; a 100,000 per annum reduction in underlying dwelling demand flowing from the hit to immigration; and a pandemic/work from home driven “escape to the suburbs and regions” that is weighing on inner city/unit prices but pushing up outer suburban/house and regional prices.

It remains hard to see that the reversal in net immigration from around 240,000 people per annum to an expected net outflow of people this financial year (of -70,000) and next (of -20,000) won’t have a significant impact. The surge in population growth of around 150,000 people per annum taking it to around 375,000 people per annum due to higher immigration from the middle of the 2000s was the main factor explaining very expensive Australian housing over the last 15 years as the property market became chronically undersupplied. The collapse in population growth which is likely to result in a halving in underlying demand for housing this financial year and next at the same time that governments are intent on supporting housing construction via various initiatives including HomeBuilder is likely to weigh on prices at some point as chronic undersupply gives way to oversupply in some areas. Particularly with rate cuts and incentives pulling demand forward and mortgage rate reductions reaching the end of the road. This is particularly likely to weigh on unit rents and prices along with investor demand in Sydney and Melbourne.

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Inner city Melbourne and Sydney are the most vulnerable to the hit to immigration, but this may not become fully apparent for another six months or so. Outer suburban areas and houses in these cities are likely to continue seeing solid price gains reflecting the “escape from the city” phenomenon against a backdrop of very low mortgage rates. On average Sydney and Melbourne price gains are likely to be modest at around 2 to 3% through 2021.

Other cities and regional areas are likely to perform well reflecting lower levels of debt and less exposure to immigration and as such as likely to see rising average prices with record low mortgage rates dominating. Adelaide and Brisbane are playing catch up after years of underperformance compared to Sydney and Melbourne, Canberra is benefitting from strength in public sector employment and Perth and Darwin are starting to recover after bear markets ever since 2014 helped by the recovery in mining investment in WA. Expect average price gains of close to 10% in Adelaide, Brisbane, Perth, Darwin and regional areas and around 5 to 7% in Canberra and Hobart.

Basically, Sydney and Melbourne lead the longer term cycle and the other cities and regional prices follow. Right now, Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart, Canberra and average regional dwelling prices are playing catch up after underperforming Sydney and Melbourne into 2017 and Perth and Darwin home prices are finally recovering from a multi-year bear market that went bust with the end of the mining investment boom. The surge in immigration played a big role in the outperformance of Sydney and Melbourne into 2017 and this is now going into reverse.

Outer suburban houses and dwellings in regional centres are likely to perform better than inner city units in most capital cities as a continuing trend to working from home and a greater focus on lifestyle dominates.

SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital 
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soliver

Regional home prices outpacing the capital cities in 2021: Shane Oliver

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Australia’s regional market has seen significant increase in dwelling values over the year, according to the recent CoreLogic Pain and Gain report.

While coastal regions in commutable distance from the CBD have traditionally seen strong growth rates, some regions farther interstate are also on the uptick.

“Part of this high capital growth across tree change areas may be due to the relative affordability of more remote areas in regional Australia, enhanced by the normalisation of remote work through COVID-19”, the report read.

Ballarat saw the highest growth rate of SA4 markets in regional Victoria over 2020, with values increasing 6.5 per cent in value.

However, Ballarat saw an increase in the rate of loss-making sales, with a marginal 10 basis point increase.

<a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2021-01-19_at_6.47.19_pm.png" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="271" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2021-01-19_at_6.47.19_pm.png?itok=pIpJ0QWR" width="580"></a>

Across the major non-coastal regions, 5.1 per cent of observed resales sold for a nominal loss, down from 5.8 per cent in the previous quarter.

<h2>Coastal regional markets increase the rate of profit-making sales</h2>

Each of the nine major coastal regional markets analysed in the report saw an increase in the rate of profit-making sales over the September quarter.

Over the quarter, six of the regions recorded a rate of profit-making sales over 95 per cent.

These were Geelong, Illawarra, the Mid North Coast, the Newcastle Lake Macquarie region, the Richmond Tweed region and the Sunshine Coast.

“The Sunshine Coast reached a historic level of profitability, with 96.4 per cent of properties selling for a nominal gain compared with the previous sale.” The report stated.

Sunshine Coast saw a median profit of $195,000 over the quarter, based on a relatively low hold period of 6.7 years.

Geelong remained the most profitable of the major regional coastal markets, with 98.6 per cent of properties selling at a profit.

<h2>Here are three regional properties on the market right now</h2>

1. <a href="/buildings/miramar-geelong-18-20-cavendish-street-geelong">Miramar Geelong</a> 
Address: 18-20 Cavendish Street, Geelong VIC 3220

<a href="/buildings/miramar-geelong-18-20-cavendish-street-geelong"><img alt="" height="854" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/miramar-geelong-18-20-cavendish-street-geelong-7ae30a2e629749d48d93296a3e843cb4.jpg" width="1600"></a>

Delivered by Morris Property Group, Miramar offers world-class bay views, outstanding amenity and in-house facilities including a gymnasium, landscaped barbeque area and resident’s lounge. 

Miramar will be Geelong's tallest residential tower, consisting of one, two and three-bedroom homes just metres from the foreshore.  
 

2. <a href="/buildings/highpoint-2-charles-street-charlestown">Highpoint</a>, Charlestown 
Address: 2 Charles Street, Charlestown NSW 2290

<a href="/buildings/highpoint-2-charles-street-charlestown"><img alt="" height="678" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/highpoint-2-charles-street-charlestown-0ff115c5e73c90a662ea4f9845863ce5.jpg" width="1199"></a>

Considered one of the nation’s most consistent markets, Charlestown boasts some of the region’s best medical and financial facilities as well as the region’s biggest shopping and entertainment precincts.

GWH's Highpoint project offers the perfect mix of location, convenience, features, price and design, with apartments in two and three-bedroom configurations still available. The residence features a terrace garden, entertainment and barbeque area on the level three podium.  
 

3. <a href="/buildings/aura-terraces-new-road-caloundra-west" target="_blank">Aura Terraces</a>, Caloundra West 
Address: New Road, Caloundra West QLD 4551 
Three-bedroom townhouses from $433,900

<a href="/buildings/aura-terraces-new-road-caloundra-west"><img alt="" height="900" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/aura-terraces-new-road-caloundra-west-85e021043d2e61f2cf6f094575f8dbaf_0.jpg" width="1200"></a>

Located in a high and expanding employment area, Aura is only a short drive to the beautiful beaches of Caloundra and is set to become the Sunshine Coast's largest employment generator. 

In the next five years, construction will be completed on the city centre and people’s place, with amenities including 10 parks, sports fields, a Southbank style lagoon, dining precinct and major retailers.
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While coastal regions in commutable distance from the CBD have traditionally seen strong growth rates, some regions farther interstate are also on the uptick

max.kwok_55688

Regional markets see a significant increase in value: CoreLogic

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Investors tend to under-rate regional Australia. Among the many myths that clutter up the minds of typical investors is the one suggesting that capital cities always out-perform regional markets.
There’s plenty of evidence disproving that notion, but it’s a foolish concept anyway because it’s usually based on media reports of generalised data.
The passion of research firms and journalists to reduce growth to a single figure for major cities or indeed the entire nation is a frequent source of misinformation. 
These numbers sometimes suggest that capital cities are growing faster than the regions, but such data is useless information because within a generally unflattering regional overview (dragged down by struggling resources-related towns) may be individual locations which are doing very well.
But right now, the generalised numbers from CoreLogic have the regions outperforming the capital cities on overall growth.
That does not surprise me because most of the standout locations on price growth in the past 12 months are regional areas.
Newcastle has been one of the nation’s outstanding growth markets recently and some of the regional centres close to Melbourne, including Geelong and the towns of Cardinia Shire, are experiencing exceptional growth. Some suburbs and towns in these areas have increased more than 20% - and a few are above 30%.
The only capital city locations that can challenge them are some of the outer-ring areas of Melbourne, like the suburbs of Wyndham City down near Geelong.
Perhaps more important than these short-term results is a look at recent history, which shows that some of the outstanding growth spurts in Australia in the past 20 years have occurred in regional areas.
According to a recent analysis, the single biggest five-year growth spurt for house prices occurred in Regional Western Australia in the five years to 2008 (prices overall rose 121%). This was when regional centres like Port Hedland and Karratha were being pumped up by the massive investment boom in the resources sector.
Also during that period Regional Tasmania grew 89% and Regional Queensland was up almost 70%.
Another of the outstanding growth periods was achieved by Regional NSW in the five years to 2003, when prices grew an average of 84%, better than any of the capital cities during that boom time (the last time Australia had a genuine nationwide boom).
Also at that time, Regional Victoria prices increased 66% on average.
The No.1 growth area in the five years to 2013 was Regional Northern Territory, which rose 38% at a time when price growth was subdued in most parts of the nation.
Most of the regional growth performances mentioned above put Sydney’s recent five-year boom (prices up 64%, according to these figures) in the shade.
There’s enough juice in those numbers to consider that perhaps the regions have something to offer.
And according to Propertyology’s Simon Pressley, one of the best-researched analysts in the nation, regional Australia is likely to lead over the next five years.
“The best performing markets will be throughout regional Australia — there will be some that will perform exceptionally well,” Pressley says. 
He predicts the markets that will rise in the near future are those that he refers to as “regional hubs”. These are areas with a diversified economic base as opposed to one-industry towns — a “mini capital city”.
“There are a number of regional cities that actually play the role of a mini capital city and they service the smaller towns that might have a population of 5,000 to 10,000. There could be half a dozen or a dozen within a region.
“They’ve got all the essential infrastructure that a capital city has got and a diverse economy. It’s just a smaller scale of it, and literally there would be 30 of those locations. They’re in every state.” 
I wholeheartedly agree. Right now the ones I like include Ballarat, the Hunter Region and Townsville, but there are many others.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Newcastle one of nation's strongest growth areas as regional outperforms capitals

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Regional areas are out-performing their capital cities in the eastern states. 
My research for the new Summer edition of The Price Predictor Index finds that Regional NSW has more growth markets than Sydney, Regional Queensland is out-performing Brisbane and Regional Victoria has more upwardly-mobile markets than Melbourne. 
Regional NSW is now the leading market jurisdiction in Australia. It has more growth markets than anywhere else in the nation. The Newcastle region and the Central Coast are the stand-out precincts, but there are strong markets right throughout Regional NSW. 
There are some strong growth markets also in the regional areas of Victoria (led by Geelong and Ballarat) and Queensland (the Sunshine Coast and Cairns).
The significant thing about this is that it highlights the great diversity of property markets around Australia – and that while high-profile markets like Sydney are no longer pumping, there are many other places where sales and prices are strong – and others that are just starting their run.
Economists create confusion for consumers by discussing Australia as a single market. But there are major differences among the various capital cities (the performance of Canberra has been quite different to that of Sydney, while Perth has been opposite to Melbourne). 
Markets move in cycles but there is not always a single situation for a major city. As we have seen with both Sydney and Melbourne in recent years, a boom cycle often starts in the inner-city and over a period of perhaps three years ripples out from the centre. 
Part of the way through the boom phase, the city’s Middle Ring suburbs will be the most active, with the strongest price growth. Late in the cycle it will be the affordable Outer Ring locations that are strongest. 
We are currently as that point with the two biggest cities: the LGAs of Hume and Wyndham City are the leaders in Melbourne, while the Camden LGA in the far south-west is the stand-out market in Sydney. 
In terms of sales volume in Melbourne, upmarket Hawthorn peaked in late 2013/early 2014; middle market areas like Blackburn and Clayton peaked in late 2014/early 2015 while outer ring locations such as Cranbourne and Broadmeadows hit the high points in 2017.
There are not only major variations of performance within individual cities - but a single municipality within a major city can have diversified markets. 
The Price Predictor Index report shows that the Northern Beaches LGA in Sydney has one growth suburb, nine plateau suburbs (sales have levelled off below the peak), one consistency suburb and one danger suburb (serious decline in sales activity). 
The City of Sydney has one rising suburb, eight plateau ones, two consistency ones and five classified as danger markets. 
This also reinforces a central message: that local conditions dictate property markets, not national factors like interest rates or constraints imposed by regulators.
Another highlight of the report is that locations that have previously featured in the Dirty Dozen section (danger markets to avoid) are now showing up as growth markets. 
Primarily these are regional centres strongly impacted by the resources sector. Three striking examples are Dalby in Queensland, Port Hedland in Western Australia and Singleton in NSW.
These markets suffered downturns when a rise in supply coincided with the pause in the resources boom, which impacted on housing demand. Now these places are recovering. 
Singleton and Singleton Heights combined have had quarterly sales of 36, 42, 48, 43, 58, 55, 58 and 93 over the past two years, a pattern that charts the recent recovery.
Other examples of this trend include Emerald, Moranbah and Mackay in Queensland; Muswellbrook and Mudgee in NSW; and Karratha in WA. 
Despite the signs of improvement, investors should remain cautious of such markets because of their volatile and high-risk nature. But it’s worth noting that even the most devastated markets recover eventually and that a long-term view is needed when buying in such places. They’re not for the feeble-hearted.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Outer ring suburbs, the strengthening regions or previously devastated mining towns? Ryder's choice 

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If you listen to people who see real estate through generalised numbers, you would never invest anywhere in regional Australia.
There is no shortage of commentators ready to quote average numbers that, at face value, downgrade regional cities and towns as places unworthy of investor attention.
If the average capital growth for regional Australia is less than the average for the capital cities, it’s taken as evidence that the regions are inferior. That blanket assessment covers all regional locations.
The commentators should know better (some of them do, I’m sure, but don’t care about accuracy or balance) and so should the media.
The average for regional Australia includes every depressed or drought-affected country town on the continent. It includes all those locations impacted by the decline in the resources sector or by the growing use of workers camps to accommodate fly-in-fly-out workers, which has created price decline in specific areas. 
The generalised figure is dragged down by all those negative situations and disguises the locations which don’t fit the apparent norm. Many regional cities are above average and some are exceptional.
Locations like Toowoomba in Queensland, where price growth has been in double digits over the past 2-3 years, or Gosford in New South Wales, where many suburbs have delivered growth higher than Sydney’s.
Investors need to consider the advantages of focusing on regional Australia, which can present a win-win-win situation: lower entry prices, better rental yields and great prospects for capital growth, if they do their research and identify the best places to buy.
Then they need to consider the fundamentals of what makes a good destination for their investment dollars: a large and growing population, a strategic location, economic diversity, good infrastructure, services that attract residents from the wider area, good transport links to key locations like the nearest capital city, affordable prices, low vacancy rates and strong rental yields.
Across the vast continent of Australia, there are many towns that simply don’t fit the criteria.
That’s irrelevant. What matters are the ones that do.
Yesterday Prime Minister (for now, anyway) Malcolm Turnbull made an announcement that’s pertinent to this discussion. He announced a contract for the construction of army vehicles worth over a billion dollars and one that will secure many hundreds of jobs in the Victorian regional city of Bendigo. 
Thales Australia, which will manufacture the new armoured personnel carriers, is one of many major businesses that are based in Bendigo but operate nationally. 
Bendigo is one of those regional cities that tick most of the investment boxes. It’s strong, it’s growing, there’s big spending on new infrastructure, it has great economic diversity and it now has faster connections to Melbourne through the $5 billion regional rail link. 
It offers the affordable prices and attractive rental yields that you usually cannot find in Melbourne and other major capital cities.
But if you looked only at the sweeping generalisations of shallow commentators, you would never consider it.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a> 
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Advantages of regional property investment: Terry Ryder

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Earlier this week I was sitting amid 30-degree heat in South-east Queensland, noting that some parts of Australia had 40 degrees and others had 20, while speaking by phone to a Tasmanian friend who had just lit a fire amid wintry conditions.
Imagine our reaction if a TV weather presenter took an average of weather conditions around the nation and announced that “the temperature in Australia today was 25 degrees”.
Clearly that would be ludicrous. But every day in media, economists and other commentators take that kind of position on residential real estate. They reduce this very large and diverse nation to a single market to be described by a single figure: “Australia house prices rose 8 percent in the past 12 months.”
From that one figure which so inaccurately describes Australian residential property, they will extrapolate myriad conclusions: there’s a national property boom, prices are too high, there’s a real estate bubble in Australia, the nation is vulnerable and young people are being left behind.
The big-name ratings agencies like Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s take it a big stride further. They will access narrow data from a single source, often based on a single month’s alleged price movements, and use that to justify a press statement warning about “Australian house prices” getting out of hand.
Moody’s recently dashed off a media release warning that “resurgent housing prices” in Australia were eroding affordability, because “housing prices had risen 2.7 percent across Australia” in September. But prices hadn’t increased across Australia – the average for the capital cities had risen that much, according to one source, whose figures were contradicted by several other sources – not forgetting the notoriously erratic nature of month-to-month changes which are ignored by credible researchers. 
The lack of expertise and sophistication evident in these statements is quite startling, given the lofty reputations of the big brand-name entities making them. It really is very flimsy analysis and shallow behaviour, based not on a desire to inform but on a need to generate publicity. 
I had a call earlier this week from an ACT-based journalist wanting to discuss the market in Canberra which, he said, was going crazy “like everywhere else in Australia”. We’re entitled to expect people paid to write about real estate to have better knowledge than that. Everywhere is not going crazy in real estate and certainly Canberra is not (annual house price growth averages around 4 percent, according to three major research entities).
But that’s a common assessment I hear from all kinds of people daily. Many Australians really do believe what they read and hear: that there’s a national property boom, that prices are through the roof everywhere and no one can afford to buy.
I fear for consumers making big financial decisions based on such skinny knowledge, while wading through a sea of misinformation.
The different scenarios being played out in the thousands of markets around the country include a small number of strongly rising ones, a far greater number of mediocre ones, some with prices going backwards and a few where the local market has crashed.
Economists clearly believe there’s a national boom because interest rates are at record lows and that, in their minds, means real estate should be rising everywhere. And therefore it is.
But it isn’t. And that reality would suggest to an inquiring mind that the level of interest rates perhaps is not the over-riding factor.
In my view, the most significant factors are the underlying local economic conditions and the level of spending on infrastructure.
It is not coincidence that the No.1 ranked economy is NSW and that the city with the biggest infrastructure spend, by a wide margin, is Sydney. That’s been the case for the past three years, a time during which most markets across metropolitan Sydney have had strong price growth.
The No.2 ranked economy is Victoria, helped by strong population growth, and the infrastructure spend is reasonable, though well below Sydney’s. Not coincidentally, Melbourne has been the second strongest city market on price growth, though at levels well below the genuine boom levels of 2001-02-03.
The economies impacting Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra and Hobart have largely been mediocre and infrastructure spending has been relatively weak in recent years. That’s reflected in the absence of price growth to match Sydney’s.
It is, again, not coincidence that the recent rise of prospects for Hobart real estate has happened alongside an improving state economy and sharply rising spending on infrastructure in Tasmania. 
Adelaide, too, is showing signs of an improving market, supported by solid economic and real estate indicators and significantly rising spending on infrastructure.
Meanwhile, Western Australia now ranks in CommSec’s State of the States report as the worst economy in the land and Perth has the weakest of the city real estate markets. The Northern Territory is also faltering and Darwin’s property market is in a similar condition to Perth’s. Prices in both cities have been going backwards for three years and record low interest rates have not helped them.
Beyond the capital cities, there are multiple different scenarios in the many thousands of different markets.
Some, including regional centres close to Sydney, have had periods of solid price growth. Others, like both the Gold and Sunshine Coasts in Queensland, have had elevated activity without yet delivering major price escalation 
Most regional markets, however, have been walking rather than running – and several, notably those impacted by the resources sector, have experienced significant decline.
We’re a massive nation and the real estate conditions are as diverse as the range of temperatures you’ll see on a weather map on the evening television news.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Most regional markets walking rather than running

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The biggest market trend happening nationally is that smaller capital cities and larger regional centres are rising, while the two biggest cities are trending downwards.
Economists and other commentators who like to generalise keep telling us that the rate of growth in “Australian house prices” is declining and “the property market” generally is losing steam.
But they’re really talking about everyone’s obsession, Sydney, and ignoring the myriad different scenarios playing out in markets across the nation.
Sydney and Melbourne are still prominent in terms of annual price growth, but sales activity confirms that both Sydney and Melbourne are gradually heading south from their peaks, especially Sydney which is ahead of Melbourne in the cycle. 
In terms of the number of individual growth markets, the two biggest cities are being overtaken by some of the smaller state capitals. Both Canberra and Hobart are heading up while the two big cities are trending down.
But the headline trend is that regional markets are becoming dominant. 
If we divide the nation into jurisdictions comprising the capital cities and regional areas of each of the states, the two leading jurisdictions right now (the ones with the most growth locations) are Regional Queensland and Regional New South Wales. 
Regional Victoria also has a growing number of upwardly-mobile markets. In NSW, Victoria and Queensland, the regions now have more growth markets than their capital cities.
Among the rising markets is the Newcastle/Hunter region, which is the stand-out precinct in Regional NSW. The Lake Macquarie LGA on the fringe of Newcastle has five growth suburbs and several other steady ones. Other LGAs close to Newcastle with growth momentum include Port Stephens, Maitland and Cessnock. 
Both Singleton and Muswellbrook, which suffered when the coal downturn coincided with new supply, are continuing to mount comebacks. They form part of another trend in regional Australia, whereby many of the locations worst hit by the end of the resources investment boom are showing increasing signs of revival in their property markets. 
In Western Australia, centres like Port Hedland and Karratha (which had massive reductions in property values in recent years) now have sales activity rising again. 
In Queensland, regional centres like Mackay, Emerald and Dalby are showing signs of recovery. Even coal-mining town Moranbah, the quintessential boom-bust town, now has sales growing again. 
I’m not suggesting investors should be considering buying there – these locations have volatile markets at the high-risk end of the investment spectrum. I simply observe that they’re part of a revival of fortunes in some parts of regional Australia.
They’re also part of my argument that we don’t have a single market in Australia but many different ones – and they’re not all moving in the same direction or at the same speed.
While Sydney is waning, Canberra is starting to rise. Perth, which has been doing the polar opposite of Sydney over the past four years, is continuing the trend by moving into a recovery phase.
In the recent past, I have suggested that the first glimpses of recovery could be seen in Perth. Now the city has a significant number of suburbs with growing sales activity, for the first time in four years. 
So next time you see commentary from someone who discusses Australia as a single market, keep in mind the many different scenarios currently playing out in Sydney, Canberra, Hobart, Perth and the various centres across regional Australia.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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