Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

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The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Rainbow Bay apartment doubles in price since off the plan sale during pandemic

Regional Markets

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EXPERT OBSERVER

I’ve been telling our customers for the past two years that the outstanding property market in Australia is Regional Victoria.

And multiple data sources continue to support the view that anyone seeking affordable property, good rental yields and in particular great capital growth would be wise to consider Regional Victoria.

There is no other market jurisdiction in Australia that has delivered so many locations with double-digit growth in their median prices in the past 12 months. Equally, Regional Victoria is a national leader on locations with strong long-term capital growth rates.

The regional areas of Victoria were also prominent in the latest Pain and Gain Report from CoreLogic which highlights the number of properties sold for a profit in the September 2019 Quarter.

Why is Regional Victoria doing so well? Partly it’s because Victoria is the No.1 economy in the nation. The latest State of the States report from CommSec confirms Victoria as the leading economic performer in the nation, with New South Wales slipping down the rankings to third.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5559]

And partly it’s because Victoria continues to be the No.1 state for population growth, gaining significantly from both overseas and interstate migration.

Victoria’s ranking as the No.1 economy and population growth state isn’t just about Melbourne – the regions have been major contributors to the state’s success.

Recent data on unemployment showed that Regional Victoria leads the states in jobs growth and has the lowest unemployment rate. ABS data shows that 20,000 people found work in regional Victoria in the three months to November.

Regional Victoria’s jobless rate is 3.7% – the lowest in the nation and well below the average regional rate of 5.1%. In the past five years, regional Victoria’s unemployment rate has decreased by 2.9 percentage points.

This is translating into exceptional performance in real estate.

CoreLogic’s quarterly Pain and Gain report (which compares the prices of properties sold in the September Quarter with their previous sale) found that Hobart was the national leader – 98% of houses sold made a profit.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=27406]

But close behind in second place was Regional Victoria, where 97% of houses sold for a price higher than the vendors paid previously (ahead of Melbourne’s 96% and Sydney’s 92% - and the national average of 90%).

In terms of apartments, Regional Victoria ranked third in the national (94%), well above the national average of 80%, Sydney’s 87% and Melbourne’s 85%.

The out-performance of Regional Victoria locations shows up in price growth data for the past year and also for the past decade.

Dozens of Regional Victorian locations have recorded double-digit growth in their median house prices in the past 12 months.

Ballarat has been particularly outstanding, with Ballarat Central (13%), Brown Hill (20%), Golden Point (18%), Lake Wendouree (11%), Mt Pleasant (21%) and Wendouree (10%) all producing strong price growth.

The City of Greater Geelong also produced multiple growth leaders, including Barwon Heads (12%), Bell Park (12%) and Drysdale (20%).

Other high-growth locations were spread around the state, including Newborough (16%), Wonthaggi (14%), Heathcote in Bendigo (17%), Maldon (17%), Irymple near Mildura (23%), Daylesford (13%) and Mansfield (13%).

This kind of growth in not a one-off event – many Regional Victorian locations have long-term capital growth rates above 7% per year, with some nudging 9% per year – which puts them alongside the best in the nation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=29358]

The City of Greater Geelong, Ballarat and the Macedon Ranges LGA all have multiple locations with capital growth rates between 7% and 9% per year.

Lake Wendouree in Ballarat has averaged 8.9%, while Woodend (Macedon Ranges) and Norlane (Geelong) have both averaged 8.7% per year.

Others with capital growth rates above 8% per year include Beveridge, Daylesford, Maldon, Geelong (the suburb), Kyneton and Herne Hill (Geelong).

TERRY RYDER is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Regional Victoria is Australia's most outstanding property market: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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This is the strongest Regional Queensland market in the six years that Hotspotting has been conducting its quarterly surveys of sales activity and prices. The number of rising markets is the highest recorded, by a considerable margin, and property values are growing.

We have identified 72 locations with rising sales activity, a remarkable result in the year of the pandemic. Locations across the state are benefiting from the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle and/or the improvement in the resources sector. Vacancies are ultra-low in most of these places. 

There are seven regional cities with five or more suburbs with forward momentum in sales activity: the Sunshine Coast, the Gold Coast, Toowoomba, Mackay, Rockhampton, Gladstone and Townsville. These cities, plus smaller regional centres like Gympie, Emerald, Warwick, Kingaroy and Dalby, all have markets trending in the right direction for sustained price growth.

The Sunshine Coast is again the standout location, but other regional markets are emerging, notably the important inland city of Toowoomba. And we are seeing recovery in resources-related centres which have spent several years in downturn, including Gladstone, Mount Isa and Emerald.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=24532]

The exceptions to the trend of upwardly-mobile markets are Cairns and the Fraser Coast, neither of which appear to be experiencing the uplift seen elsewhere. 

The Sunshine Coast continues to be one the nation’s outstanding property markets. There are 14 suburbs with rising sales activity and seven with consistent sales volumes. Neighbouring Noosa has two growth suburbs.

The Sunshine Coast is outperforming the Gold Coast, which is a much larger city but has only seven growth suburbs, as well as 12 consistent ones.

Toowoomba is the new contender, as its economy rises on the back of significant new infrastructure. Eight suburbs have rising sales activity and we expect prices to rise considerably.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6769]

Rockhampton, Gladstone, Mackay and Townsville each has between five and seven suburbs with rising momentum.

Gladstone’s re-emergence as a growth market is notable, after half a dozen years in downturn: vacancies are now low, sales activity is picking up and prices are now responding.

Markets across Regional Queensland are performing well on price growth: almost three-quarters of locations across Regional Queensland have had annual growth in their median house prices and a similar number of towns and suburbs have had uplift in the most recent quarter.

The Sunshine Coast continues to impress as one of the nation’s strongest markets, with price uplift in particular in the top end of the markets. 

Sunshine Beach, the most expensive suburb on the coast, has recorded a 33% annual rise in its median house price, now $1,750,000. The canal-based suburb of Minyama has increased 29% in the past 12 months to $1,190,000. Yandina (median house price $730,000) has increased 30%.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7974]

The market in and around Noosa is a particular standout, with Sunshine Beach up 33%, Sunrise Beach up 17% and Noosaville up 12%. Mooloolaba (median price $900,000) has risen 10% and Moffat Beach (median price $910,000) is up 12%.

The Gold Coast has some notable growth performances also, with Worongary (30%), Runaway Bay (14%), Miami (12%), Arundel (15%) and Burleigh Heads (15%) all recording growth annual growth.

A number of Central Queensland are rising, including Mackay (where Andergrove, Blacks Beach, South Mackay and North Mackay have all recorded double-digit annual growth) and Rockhampton (where Berserker has led the growth with a 27% increase).

Gladstone continues to deliver evidence of recovery from a lengthy downturn, with median house price growth in suburbs such as Calliope (10%), Clinton (12%), West Gladstone (18%) and Tannum Sands (11%). 

Central Queensland resources towns like Moranbah (up 23%) and Clermont (up 10%) are also recovering, albeit from a very low base. Chinchilla on the Western Downs is in a similar position, with its median house price rising 15% in the past year after several years of decline.

TERRY RYDER is the founder of hotspotting.com.au 
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Strongest regional Queensland market in six years: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT INSIGHT

As many parts of rural Australia emerge from long running drought conditions, and the mining sector benefits from higher commodity prices and a lift in investment, many rural areas are recording a surge in housing prices.

Regional housing markets have been at the centre of attention through 2020, due to housing values outpacing their capital city counterparts. Broadly, housing values across regional Australia (+7.9%) increased by more than four times the growth rate recorded across the combined capital city regions (+1.7%) over the twelve months to January 2021.

Most of the reporting on regional areas around the country has focussed on the main population centres outside of the capital cities. These include high profile coastal regions such as Byron and Noosa, or semi-rural markets like the wine regions and hinterland locations close to the major metro regions. This is understandable, given their large populations and popularity. Most of these regions have shown substantial rises in house values over the past year.

However, many of Australia’s in-land rural markets are also showing strong housing market conditions. These areas generally do not provide commuting options back to major working nodes, nor the broad-based lifestyle appeal of coastal markets or hinterland locations. But they do provide a variety of other benefits such as low housing prices, low population densities and a rural lifestyle that may appeal to many. These regions tend to exist within their own economic ecosystem, driven by localised factors including climatic conditions such as drought, as well as local economic drivers like agriculture, mining operations and tourism, infrastructure investment or government services.

The analysis below focuses on the annul change in house values across rural in-land council regions. These areas are all separated from the coastline and are located at least 200km from the GPO of the capital city metro regions. Many of these in- land rural areas of Australia have emerged from long running drought conditions, and others are benefitting from higher commodity prices, which has driven a lift in mining related investment. Some are major service centres that provide essential amenities for surrounding areas.

Council areas with fewer than 20 house sales over the past year have been excluded from the analysis. Many of these markets are moving out of a period of extended decline, mostly due to either drought conditions or the mining downturn.

The rise in values is likely to be a welcome development for long-term home owners in the area. 41 of the 91 council regions analysed recorded house values that remained at least 10% below their historic highs. On the flipside, 32 of the 91 regions had house values tracking at record highs in January 2021.

Council regions where housing values were at record highs were generally skewed towards the largest rural population centres, where economic conditions generally show greater diversity. Seven of the ten largest population centres recorded house values at historical highs. Council regions recording the strongest growth conditions were mixed across Australia’s in-land rural markets, however areas of Central West and North Western Queensland comprised four of the top five regions for the largest rise in house values over the past year.

Winton topped the list where CoreLogic estimates house values surged 40.5% over the twelve months ending January. Only 21 house sales were recorded within the Winton council area over the past year, however that was a 62% lift on sales activity over the prior year, demonstrating a substantial lift in demand, albeit from a small base. Nearby Cloncurry showed a similar result, with values rising 37.1% over the year. This was on the back of sales activity lifting 38.7% to reach 43 house sales last year.

Focussing on the largest in-land rural population centres, the strongest performing market over the past year has been Mount Isa, where house values are up 23.1%. Despite the strong gains, house values remain 39.3% below their 2013 peak at Mount Isa, highlighting the previous weak conditions that have were evident between mid-2013 through to the market finding a floor in August 2019.

<a href="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/lawless_11.jpg" target="_blank"><img alt="" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/lawless_11.jpg" style="width: 849px; height: 450px;"></a>

Thirteen of the twenty largest rural in-land population centres have values tracking at record highs in January 2021, with most of these areas located in New South Wales or Victoria.

The larger rural population centres arguably show less risk in housing market trends due to their more diversified economies, however this is not always the case. Queensland’s Western Downs council is a case in point: despite having the seventh largest in-land rural population base (34,585 residents), the economy is mainly centred on agriculture, and house values remain 28.3% below their 2013 peak. Values are once again rising though, up 6.2% over the past twelve months, as the region emerges from a long running drought.

<a href="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/lawless_2.jpg" target="_blank"><img alt="" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/lawless_2.jpg" style="width: 848px; height: 447px;"></a>

Overall, Australia’s in-land rural markets offer up a diverse array of living options, generally with low price tags. The highest median house value was recorded for houses within the Alpine council area at $520,588 which is about $280,000 less than Greater Melbourne’s median house value and almost $500,000 less than Sydney’s. Median house values range down to less than $90,000 in the council areas of Coonamble ($86,139), Bourke ($89,465), Murweh ($89,569) and Blackall-Tambo ($89,687). Such sheer affordability is likely to be an attraction for some buyers, however prospective city folk interested in relocating to the rural areas of Australia might be better off ‘testing the waters’ by renting before buying... just to make sure the rural lifestyle is really their cup of tea.

TIM LAWLESS is the Research Director at CoreLogic
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As many parts of rural Australia emerge from long running drought conditions alongside other factors many rural areas are recording a surge in housing prices

tlawless

Regional Australian housing market sees price surge: Tim Lawless

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EXPERT INSIGHT

The combination of reopening unleashing pent up demand, an avalanche of government incentives (including stamp duty concessions, various state support measures, HomeBuilder and an expansion of the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme), a further easing in lending standards on the way for early this year (with the removal of responsible lending obligations), record low mortgage rates, the desire to "escape from the city" helped along by ongoing bank payment holidays and Government income support measures averted a sharp fall in prices that would otherwise have followed from higher unemployment and underemployment, weak inner city rental markets and the hit to immigration and brought forward demand from first home buyers and owner occupiers. As a result property prices have turned up far earlier than I had been expecting and there appears to be a bit of FOMO (or the “fear of missing out”) creeping into some markets and pushing them higher.

At the current rate of increase average capital city dwelling prices will surpass their September 2017 record high by March, although this masks a wide divergence with: record highs already in Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra and in average regional home prices; Perth and Darwin remaining well down on their 2014 highs; and Sydney and Melbourne prices having been range bound since 2017.  

Outlook

Australian home prices are likely to continue to rise through 2021 being boosted by record low mortgage rates, government home buyer incentives and with the recovery in the economy expected to offset the phasing down of income support measures and bank payment holidays and some incentives. As a result average capital city home prices are expected to rise by around 5% through the year. While first home buyer incentives are likely to be reduced seeing a decline in first home buyer demand later in the year, investor interest is expected to pick up.

However, the outlook is widely divergent across cities, within cities and across units versus houses.

<img alt="" height="355" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/amp_jan_2.png" width="545">

The downside risks relate to: renewed coronavirus related lockdowns with the latest being in Perth although so far new case numbers seem to be getting kept down and vaccines should help head off this risk entirely later in the year; higher unemployment and underemployment and distressed sales as government income and bank support measures wind down although the risk on this front are rapidly diminishing; falling rents and high vacancy rates in inner city Melbourne and Sydney weighing on investors; a 100,000 per annum reduction in underlying dwelling demand flowing from the hit to immigration; and a pandemic/work from home driven “escape to the suburbs and regions” that is weighing on inner city/unit prices but pushing up outer suburban/house and regional prices.

It remains hard to see that the reversal in net immigration from around 240,000 people per annum to an expected net outflow of people this financial year (of -70,000) and next (of -20,000) won’t have a significant impact. The surge in population growth of around 150,000 people per annum taking it to around 375,000 people per annum due to higher immigration from the middle of the 2000s was the main factor explaining very expensive Australian housing over the last 15 years as the property market became chronically undersupplied. The collapse in population growth which is likely to result in a halving in underlying demand for housing this financial year and next at the same time that governments are intent on supporting housing construction via various initiatives including HomeBuilder is likely to weigh on prices at some point as chronic undersupply gives way to oversupply in some areas. Particularly with rate cuts and incentives pulling demand forward and mortgage rate reductions reaching the end of the road. This is particularly likely to weigh on unit rents and prices along with investor demand in Sydney and Melbourne.

<img alt="" height="376" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/amp_jan_1.png" width="620">

Inner city Melbourne and Sydney are the most vulnerable to the hit to immigration, but this may not become fully apparent for another six months or so. Outer suburban areas and houses in these cities are likely to continue seeing solid price gains reflecting the “escape from the city” phenomenon against a backdrop of very low mortgage rates. On average Sydney and Melbourne price gains are likely to be modest at around 2 to 3% through 2021.

Other cities and regional areas are likely to perform well reflecting lower levels of debt and less exposure to immigration and as such as likely to see rising average prices with record low mortgage rates dominating. Adelaide and Brisbane are playing catch up after years of underperformance compared to Sydney and Melbourne, Canberra is benefitting from strength in public sector employment and Perth and Darwin are starting to recover after bear markets ever since 2014 helped by the recovery in mining investment in WA. Expect average price gains of close to 10% in Adelaide, Brisbane, Perth, Darwin and regional areas and around 5 to 7% in Canberra and Hobart.

Basically, Sydney and Melbourne lead the longer term cycle and the other cities and regional prices follow. Right now, Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart, Canberra and average regional dwelling prices are playing catch up after underperforming Sydney and Melbourne into 2017 and Perth and Darwin home prices are finally recovering from a multi-year bear market that went bust with the end of the mining investment boom. The surge in immigration played a big role in the outperformance of Sydney and Melbourne into 2017 and this is now going into reverse.

Outer suburban houses and dwellings in regional centres are likely to perform better than inner city units in most capital cities as a continuing trend to working from home and a greater focus on lifestyle dominates.

SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital 
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soliver

Regional home prices outpacing the capital cities in 2021: Shane Oliver

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Australia’s regional market has seen significant increase in dwelling values over the year, according to the recent CoreLogic Pain and Gain report.

While coastal regions in commutable distance from the CBD have traditionally seen strong growth rates, some regions farther interstate are also on the uptick.

“Part of this high capital growth across tree change areas may be due to the relative affordability of more remote areas in regional Australia, enhanced by the normalisation of remote work through COVID-19”, the report read.

Ballarat saw the highest growth rate of SA4 markets in regional Victoria over 2020, with values increasing 6.5 per cent in value.

However, Ballarat saw an increase in the rate of loss-making sales, with a marginal 10 basis point increase.

<a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2021-01-19_at_6.47.19_pm.png" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="271" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2021-01-19_at_6.47.19_pm.png?itok=pIpJ0QWR" width="580"></a>

Across the major non-coastal regions, 5.1 per cent of observed resales sold for a nominal loss, down from 5.8 per cent in the previous quarter.

<h2>Coastal regional markets increase the rate of profit-making sales</h2>

Each of the nine major coastal regional markets analysed in the report saw an increase in the rate of profit-making sales over the September quarter.

Over the quarter, six of the regions recorded a rate of profit-making sales over 95 per cent.

These were Geelong, Illawarra, the Mid North Coast, the Newcastle Lake Macquarie region, the Richmond Tweed region and the Sunshine Coast.

“The Sunshine Coast reached a historic level of profitability, with 96.4 per cent of properties selling for a nominal gain compared with the previous sale.” The report stated.

Sunshine Coast saw a median profit of $195,000 over the quarter, based on a relatively low hold period of 6.7 years.

Geelong remained the most profitable of the major regional coastal markets, with 98.6 per cent of properties selling at a profit.

<h2>Here are three regional properties on the market right now</h2>

1. <a href="/buildings/miramar-geelong-18-20-cavendish-street-geelong">Miramar Geelong</a> 
Address: 18-20 Cavendish Street, Geelong VIC 3220

<a href="/buildings/miramar-geelong-18-20-cavendish-street-geelong"><img alt="" height="854" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/miramar-geelong-18-20-cavendish-street-geelong-7ae30a2e629749d48d93296a3e843cb4.jpg" width="1600"></a>

Delivered by Morris Property Group, Miramar offers world-class bay views, outstanding amenity and in-house facilities including a gymnasium, landscaped barbeque area and resident’s lounge. 

Miramar will be Geelong's tallest residential tower, consisting of one, two and three-bedroom homes just metres from the foreshore.  
 

2. <a href="/buildings/highpoint-2-charles-street-charlestown">Highpoint</a>, Charlestown 
Address: 2 Charles Street, Charlestown NSW 2290

<a href="/buildings/highpoint-2-charles-street-charlestown"><img alt="" height="678" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/highpoint-2-charles-street-charlestown-0ff115c5e73c90a662ea4f9845863ce5.jpg" width="1199"></a>

Considered one of the nation’s most consistent markets, Charlestown boasts some of the region’s best medical and financial facilities as well as the region’s biggest shopping and entertainment precincts.

GWH's Highpoint project offers the perfect mix of location, convenience, features, price and design, with apartments in two and three-bedroom configurations still available. The residence features a terrace garden, entertainment and barbeque area on the level three podium.  
 

3. <a href="/buildings/aura-terraces-new-road-caloundra-west" target="_blank">Aura Terraces</a>, Caloundra West 
Address: New Road, Caloundra West QLD 4551 
Three-bedroom townhouses from $433,900

<a href="/buildings/aura-terraces-new-road-caloundra-west"><img alt="" height="900" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/aura-terraces-new-road-caloundra-west-85e021043d2e61f2cf6f094575f8dbaf_0.jpg" width="1200"></a>

Located in a high and expanding employment area, Aura is only a short drive to the beautiful beaches of Caloundra and is set to become the Sunshine Coast's largest employment generator. 

In the next five years, construction will be completed on the city centre and people’s place, with amenities including 10 parks, sports fields, a Southbank style lagoon, dining precinct and major retailers.
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While coastal regions in commutable distance from the CBD have traditionally seen strong growth rates, some regions farther interstate are also on the uptick

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Regional markets see a significant increase in value: CoreLogic

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Investors tend to under-rate regional Australia. Among the many myths that clutter up the minds of typical investors is the one suggesting that capital cities always out-perform regional markets.
There’s plenty of evidence disproving that notion, but it’s a foolish concept anyway because it’s usually based on media reports of generalised data.
The passion of research firms and journalists to reduce growth to a single figure for major cities or indeed the entire nation is a frequent source of misinformation. 
These numbers sometimes suggest that capital cities are growing faster than the regions, but such data is useless information because within a generally unflattering regional overview (dragged down by struggling resources-related towns) may be individual locations which are doing very well.
But right now, the generalised numbers from CoreLogic have the regions outperforming the capital cities on overall growth.
That does not surprise me because most of the standout locations on price growth in the past 12 months are regional areas.
Newcastle has been one of the nation’s outstanding growth markets recently and some of the regional centres close to Melbourne, including Geelong and the towns of Cardinia Shire, are experiencing exceptional growth. Some suburbs and towns in these areas have increased more than 20% - and a few are above 30%.
The only capital city locations that can challenge them are some of the outer-ring areas of Melbourne, like the suburbs of Wyndham City down near Geelong.
Perhaps more important than these short-term results is a look at recent history, which shows that some of the outstanding growth spurts in Australia in the past 20 years have occurred in regional areas.
According to a recent analysis, the single biggest five-year growth spurt for house prices occurred in Regional Western Australia in the five years to 2008 (prices overall rose 121%). This was when regional centres like Port Hedland and Karratha were being pumped up by the massive investment boom in the resources sector.
Also during that period Regional Tasmania grew 89% and Regional Queensland was up almost 70%.
Another of the outstanding growth periods was achieved by Regional NSW in the five years to 2003, when prices grew an average of 84%, better than any of the capital cities during that boom time (the last time Australia had a genuine nationwide boom).
Also at that time, Regional Victoria prices increased 66% on average.
The No.1 growth area in the five years to 2013 was Regional Northern Territory, which rose 38% at a time when price growth was subdued in most parts of the nation.
Most of the regional growth performances mentioned above put Sydney’s recent five-year boom (prices up 64%, according to these figures) in the shade.
There’s enough juice in those numbers to consider that perhaps the regions have something to offer.
And according to Propertyology’s Simon Pressley, one of the best-researched analysts in the nation, regional Australia is likely to lead over the next five years.
“The best performing markets will be throughout regional Australia — there will be some that will perform exceptionally well,” Pressley says. 
He predicts the markets that will rise in the near future are those that he refers to as “regional hubs”. These are areas with a diversified economic base as opposed to one-industry towns — a “mini capital city”.
“There are a number of regional cities that actually play the role of a mini capital city and they service the smaller towns that might have a population of 5,000 to 10,000. There could be half a dozen or a dozen within a region.
“They’ve got all the essential infrastructure that a capital city has got and a diverse economy. It’s just a smaller scale of it, and literally there would be 30 of those locations. They’re in every state.” 
I wholeheartedly agree. Right now the ones I like include Ballarat, the Hunter Region and Townsville, but there are many others.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Newcastle one of nation's strongest growth areas as regional outperforms capitals

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Regional areas are out-performing their capital cities in the eastern states. 
My research for the new Summer edition of The Price Predictor Index finds that Regional NSW has more growth markets than Sydney, Regional Queensland is out-performing Brisbane and Regional Victoria has more upwardly-mobile markets than Melbourne. 
Regional NSW is now the leading market jurisdiction in Australia. It has more growth markets than anywhere else in the nation. The Newcastle region and the Central Coast are the stand-out precincts, but there are strong markets right throughout Regional NSW. 
There are some strong growth markets also in the regional areas of Victoria (led by Geelong and Ballarat) and Queensland (the Sunshine Coast and Cairns).
The significant thing about this is that it highlights the great diversity of property markets around Australia – and that while high-profile markets like Sydney are no longer pumping, there are many other places where sales and prices are strong – and others that are just starting their run.
Economists create confusion for consumers by discussing Australia as a single market. But there are major differences among the various capital cities (the performance of Canberra has been quite different to that of Sydney, while Perth has been opposite to Melbourne). 
Markets move in cycles but there is not always a single situation for a major city. As we have seen with both Sydney and Melbourne in recent years, a boom cycle often starts in the inner-city and over a period of perhaps three years ripples out from the centre. 
Part of the way through the boom phase, the city’s Middle Ring suburbs will be the most active, with the strongest price growth. Late in the cycle it will be the affordable Outer Ring locations that are strongest. 
We are currently as that point with the two biggest cities: the LGAs of Hume and Wyndham City are the leaders in Melbourne, while the Camden LGA in the far south-west is the stand-out market in Sydney. 
In terms of sales volume in Melbourne, upmarket Hawthorn peaked in late 2013/early 2014; middle market areas like Blackburn and Clayton peaked in late 2014/early 2015 while outer ring locations such as Cranbourne and Broadmeadows hit the high points in 2017.
There are not only major variations of performance within individual cities - but a single municipality within a major city can have diversified markets. 
The Price Predictor Index report shows that the Northern Beaches LGA in Sydney has one growth suburb, nine plateau suburbs (sales have levelled off below the peak), one consistency suburb and one danger suburb (serious decline in sales activity). 
The City of Sydney has one rising suburb, eight plateau ones, two consistency ones and five classified as danger markets. 
This also reinforces a central message: that local conditions dictate property markets, not national factors like interest rates or constraints imposed by regulators.
Another highlight of the report is that locations that have previously featured in the Dirty Dozen section (danger markets to avoid) are now showing up as growth markets. 
Primarily these are regional centres strongly impacted by the resources sector. Three striking examples are Dalby in Queensland, Port Hedland in Western Australia and Singleton in NSW.
These markets suffered downturns when a rise in supply coincided with the pause in the resources boom, which impacted on housing demand. Now these places are recovering. 
Singleton and Singleton Heights combined have had quarterly sales of 36, 42, 48, 43, 58, 55, 58 and 93 over the past two years, a pattern that charts the recent recovery.
Other examples of this trend include Emerald, Moranbah and Mackay in Queensland; Muswellbrook and Mudgee in NSW; and Karratha in WA. 
Despite the signs of improvement, investors should remain cautious of such markets because of their volatile and high-risk nature. But it’s worth noting that even the most devastated markets recover eventually and that a long-term view is needed when buying in such places. They’re not for the feeble-hearted.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Outer ring suburbs, the strengthening regions or previously devastated mining towns? Ryder's choice 

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If you listen to people who see real estate through generalised numbers, you would never invest anywhere in regional Australia.
There is no shortage of commentators ready to quote average numbers that, at face value, downgrade regional cities and towns as places unworthy of investor attention.
If the average capital growth for regional Australia is less than the average for the capital cities, it’s taken as evidence that the regions are inferior. That blanket assessment covers all regional locations.
The commentators should know better (some of them do, I’m sure, but don’t care about accuracy or balance) and so should the media.
The average for regional Australia includes every depressed or drought-affected country town on the continent. It includes all those locations impacted by the decline in the resources sector or by the growing use of workers camps to accommodate fly-in-fly-out workers, which has created price decline in specific areas. 
The generalised figure is dragged down by all those negative situations and disguises the locations which don’t fit the apparent norm. Many regional cities are above average and some are exceptional.
Locations like Toowoomba in Queensland, where price growth has been in double digits over the past 2-3 years, or Gosford in New South Wales, where many suburbs have delivered growth higher than Sydney’s.
Investors need to consider the advantages of focusing on regional Australia, which can present a win-win-win situation: lower entry prices, better rental yields and great prospects for capital growth, if they do their research and identify the best places to buy.
Then they need to consider the fundamentals of what makes a good destination for their investment dollars: a large and growing population, a strategic location, economic diversity, good infrastructure, services that attract residents from the wider area, good transport links to key locations like the nearest capital city, affordable prices, low vacancy rates and strong rental yields.
Across the vast continent of Australia, there are many towns that simply don’t fit the criteria.
That’s irrelevant. What matters are the ones that do.
Yesterday Prime Minister (for now, anyway) Malcolm Turnbull made an announcement that’s pertinent to this discussion. He announced a contract for the construction of army vehicles worth over a billion dollars and one that will secure many hundreds of jobs in the Victorian regional city of Bendigo. 
Thales Australia, which will manufacture the new armoured personnel carriers, is one of many major businesses that are based in Bendigo but operate nationally. 
Bendigo is one of those regional cities that tick most of the investment boxes. It’s strong, it’s growing, there’s big spending on new infrastructure, it has great economic diversity and it now has faster connections to Melbourne through the $5 billion regional rail link. 
It offers the affordable prices and attractive rental yields that you usually cannot find in Melbourne and other major capital cities.
But if you looked only at the sweeping generalisations of shallow commentators, you would never consider it.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a> 
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Advantages of regional property investment: Terry Ryder

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Earlier this week I was sitting amid 30-degree heat in South-east Queensland, noting that some parts of Australia had 40 degrees and others had 20, while speaking by phone to a Tasmanian friend who had just lit a fire amid wintry conditions.
Imagine our reaction if a TV weather presenter took an average of weather conditions around the nation and announced that “the temperature in Australia today was 25 degrees”.
Clearly that would be ludicrous. But every day in media, economists and other commentators take that kind of position on residential real estate. They reduce this very large and diverse nation to a single market to be described by a single figure: “Australia house prices rose 8 percent in the past 12 months.”
From that one figure which so inaccurately describes Australian residential property, they will extrapolate myriad conclusions: there’s a national property boom, prices are too high, there’s a real estate bubble in Australia, the nation is vulnerable and young people are being left behind.
The big-name ratings agencies like Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s take it a big stride further. They will access narrow data from a single source, often based on a single month’s alleged price movements, and use that to justify a press statement warning about “Australian house prices” getting out of hand.
Moody’s recently dashed off a media release warning that “resurgent housing prices” in Australia were eroding affordability, because “housing prices had risen 2.7 percent across Australia” in September. But prices hadn’t increased across Australia – the average for the capital cities had risen that much, according to one source, whose figures were contradicted by several other sources – not forgetting the notoriously erratic nature of month-to-month changes which are ignored by credible researchers. 
The lack of expertise and sophistication evident in these statements is quite startling, given the lofty reputations of the big brand-name entities making them. It really is very flimsy analysis and shallow behaviour, based not on a desire to inform but on a need to generate publicity. 
I had a call earlier this week from an ACT-based journalist wanting to discuss the market in Canberra which, he said, was going crazy “like everywhere else in Australia”. We’re entitled to expect people paid to write about real estate to have better knowledge than that. Everywhere is not going crazy in real estate and certainly Canberra is not (annual house price growth averages around 4 percent, according to three major research entities).
But that’s a common assessment I hear from all kinds of people daily. Many Australians really do believe what they read and hear: that there’s a national property boom, that prices are through the roof everywhere and no one can afford to buy.
I fear for consumers making big financial decisions based on such skinny knowledge, while wading through a sea of misinformation.
The different scenarios being played out in the thousands of markets around the country include a small number of strongly rising ones, a far greater number of mediocre ones, some with prices going backwards and a few where the local market has crashed.
Economists clearly believe there’s a national boom because interest rates are at record lows and that, in their minds, means real estate should be rising everywhere. And therefore it is.
But it isn’t. And that reality would suggest to an inquiring mind that the level of interest rates perhaps is not the over-riding factor.
In my view, the most significant factors are the underlying local economic conditions and the level of spending on infrastructure.
It is not coincidence that the No.1 ranked economy is NSW and that the city with the biggest infrastructure spend, by a wide margin, is Sydney. That’s been the case for the past three years, a time during which most markets across metropolitan Sydney have had strong price growth.
The No.2 ranked economy is Victoria, helped by strong population growth, and the infrastructure spend is reasonable, though well below Sydney’s. Not coincidentally, Melbourne has been the second strongest city market on price growth, though at levels well below the genuine boom levels of 2001-02-03.
The economies impacting Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra and Hobart have largely been mediocre and infrastructure spending has been relatively weak in recent years. That’s reflected in the absence of price growth to match Sydney’s.
It is, again, not coincidence that the recent rise of prospects for Hobart real estate has happened alongside an improving state economy and sharply rising spending on infrastructure in Tasmania. 
Adelaide, too, is showing signs of an improving market, supported by solid economic and real estate indicators and significantly rising spending on infrastructure.
Meanwhile, Western Australia now ranks in CommSec’s State of the States report as the worst economy in the land and Perth has the weakest of the city real estate markets. The Northern Territory is also faltering and Darwin’s property market is in a similar condition to Perth’s. Prices in both cities have been going backwards for three years and record low interest rates have not helped them.
Beyond the capital cities, there are multiple different scenarios in the many thousands of different markets.
Some, including regional centres close to Sydney, have had periods of solid price growth. Others, like both the Gold and Sunshine Coasts in Queensland, have had elevated activity without yet delivering major price escalation 
Most regional markets, however, have been walking rather than running – and several, notably those impacted by the resources sector, have experienced significant decline.
We’re a massive nation and the real estate conditions are as diverse as the range of temperatures you’ll see on a weather map on the evening television news.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Most regional markets walking rather than running

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The biggest market trend happening nationally is that smaller capital cities and larger regional centres are rising, while the two biggest cities are trending downwards.
Economists and other commentators who like to generalise keep telling us that the rate of growth in “Australian house prices” is declining and “the property market” generally is losing steam.
But they’re really talking about everyone’s obsession, Sydney, and ignoring the myriad different scenarios playing out in markets across the nation.
Sydney and Melbourne are still prominent in terms of annual price growth, but sales activity confirms that both Sydney and Melbourne are gradually heading south from their peaks, especially Sydney which is ahead of Melbourne in the cycle. 
In terms of the number of individual growth markets, the two biggest cities are being overtaken by some of the smaller state capitals. Both Canberra and Hobart are heading up while the two big cities are trending down.
But the headline trend is that regional markets are becoming dominant. 
If we divide the nation into jurisdictions comprising the capital cities and regional areas of each of the states, the two leading jurisdictions right now (the ones with the most growth locations) are Regional Queensland and Regional New South Wales. 
Regional Victoria also has a growing number of upwardly-mobile markets. In NSW, Victoria and Queensland, the regions now have more growth markets than their capital cities.
Among the rising markets is the Newcastle/Hunter region, which is the stand-out precinct in Regional NSW. The Lake Macquarie LGA on the fringe of Newcastle has five growth suburbs and several other steady ones. Other LGAs close to Newcastle with growth momentum include Port Stephens, Maitland and Cessnock. 
Both Singleton and Muswellbrook, which suffered when the coal downturn coincided with new supply, are continuing to mount comebacks. They form part of another trend in regional Australia, whereby many of the locations worst hit by the end of the resources investment boom are showing increasing signs of revival in their property markets. 
In Western Australia, centres like Port Hedland and Karratha (which had massive reductions in property values in recent years) now have sales activity rising again. 
In Queensland, regional centres like Mackay, Emerald and Dalby are showing signs of recovery. Even coal-mining town Moranbah, the quintessential boom-bust town, now has sales growing again. 
I’m not suggesting investors should be considering buying there – these locations have volatile markets at the high-risk end of the investment spectrum. I simply observe that they’re part of a revival of fortunes in some parts of regional Australia.
They’re also part of my argument that we don’t have a single market in Australia but many different ones – and they’re not all moving in the same direction or at the same speed.
While Sydney is waning, Canberra is starting to rise. Perth, which has been doing the polar opposite of Sydney over the past four years, is continuing the trend by moving into a recovery phase.
In the recent past, I have suggested that the first glimpses of recovery could be seen in Perth. Now the city has a significant number of suburbs with growing sales activity, for the first time in four years. 
So next time you see commentary from someone who discusses Australia as a single market, keep in mind the many different scenarios currently playing out in Sydney, Canberra, Hobart, Perth and the various centres across regional Australia.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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