<p data-end="587" data-start="368">Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.</p>

<p data-end="778" data-start="589">The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.</p>

<p data-end="907" data-start="780"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.</p>

<p data-end="1052" data-start="909">The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.</p>

<p data-end="1311" data-start="1054">The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.</p>

<p data-end="1451" data-start="1313">The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.</p>

<p data-end="1676" data-start="1453">MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.</p>

<p data-end="1908" data-start="1678">Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910">The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.</p>

<p data-end="2142" data-start="1910"><img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" /></p>

<p data-end="2308" data-start="2144">MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="2648" data-start="2310">"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.</p>

<p data-end="2797" data-start="2650">"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."</p>

<p data-end="2938" data-start="2799">The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.</p>

<p data-end="3216" data-start="2940">Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.</p>

<p data-end="3325" data-start="3218">Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.</p>

<p data-end="3442" data-start="3327">"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.</p>

<p data-end="3662" data-start="3444">"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."</p>

<p data-end="3818" data-start="3664">MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.</p>

<p data-end="4076" data-start="3820">"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.</p>

<p data-end="4375" data-start="4078">"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."</p>

<p data-end="4503" data-start="4377">Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.</p>

<p data-end="4741" data-start="4505">"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."</p>

<p data-end="4910" data-start="4743">The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.</p>

<p data-end="4951" data-start="4912">MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

<main data-perf-region="main">
<p data-end="600" data-start="394">Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.</p>

<p data-end="733" data-start="602">But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.</p>

<p data-end="970" data-start="735">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]</p>

<p data-end="1159" data-start="972">The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.</p>

<p data-end="1357" data-start="1161">It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.</p>

<p data-end="1664" data-start="1517">Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.</p>

<p data-end="1826" data-start="1666">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]</p>

<p data-end="2045" data-start="1828">Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2269" data-start="2047">"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.</p>

<p data-end="2430" data-start="2271">A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.</p>

<p data-end="2606" data-start="2432">It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.</p>

<p data-end="2724" data-start="2608">At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.</p>

<p data-end="2892" data-start="2726">[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]</p>

<p data-end="3004" data-start="2894">Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.</p>

<p data-end="3214" data-start="3006">"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.</p>

<p data-end="3400" data-start="3216">More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3670" data-start="3538">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]</p>

<h3 data-end="3697" data-section-id="q3n5ak" data-start="3672">&nbsp;</h3>
</main>


Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

<p>A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.</p>

<p>Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.</p>

<p>Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]</p>

<p>The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.</p>

<p>Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.</p>

<p>Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]</p>

<p>Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.</p>

<p>The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.</p>

<p>“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]</p>

<p>“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”</p>

<p>The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]</p>


Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

<p data-end="535" data-start="324">Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.</p>

<p data-end="717" data-start="537">The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.</p>

<p data-end="918" data-start="719">The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920">PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.</p>

<p data-end="1131" data-start="920"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" /></p>

<p data-end="1318" data-start="1133">Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.</p>

<p data-end="1433" data-start="1320">The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.</p>

<p data-end="1658" data-start="1591">A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.</p>

<p data-end="1864" data-start="1660">More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866">The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.</p>

<p data-end="2011" data-start="1866"><img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" /></p>

<p data-end="2191" data-start="2013">The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.</p>

<p data-end="2365" data-start="2193">PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.</p>

<p data-end="2473" data-start="2367">“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.</p>

<p data-end="2775" data-start="2475">“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”</p>

<p data-end="2943" data-start="2777">The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.</p>

<p data-end="3145" data-start="3001">PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.</p>


PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

<p>Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.</p>

<p>The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.</p>

<p>That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.</p>

<p>The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.</p>

<p>A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.</p>

<p>Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.</p>

<p>While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.</p>


First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Rba Insights

jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Minutes of August 2018 Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board

Minutes of July 2018 Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board

<html><body>
<p>In the July meeting minutes, the RBA discussed the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets decline.</p>
<p>The minutes suggested house prices had fallen by almost five percent in Sydney over the preceding year after its significant increases in previous years.</p>
<p>"Members observed that prices in Sydney and Melbourne had fallen the most for more expensive properties, while prices of lower-priced properties had been little changed, consistent with the typical pattern of larger fluctuations in prices at the higher end of the market," the minutes read.</p>
<p>"In the other state capitals, housing prices had been fairly steady, with the exception of Hobart, where prices had picked up markedly given strong demand and supply constraints."</p>
<p>The members noted that data from the national accounts suggested dwelling investment had peaked in late 2016, although residential construction cycles had differed significantly across the states.</p>
<p>"In New South Wales, dwelling investment in higher-density projects had remained at a high level since the beginning of 2016," the minutes read.</p>
<p>They said liaison contacts had suggested there were capacity constraints in Sydney, which meant that, given the large amount of work in the pipeline in New South Wales, construction activity was likely to remain at a high level for some time.</p>
<p>The minutes noted that dwelling investment in Victoria was also likely to remain at a high level for some time.</p>
<p>"Members noted that more of this activity had been in detached dwellings and that ‘greenfield’ land sites had generally been more readily available in Victoria.</p>
<p>"By contrast, the construction cycle for apartments had clearly passed its peak in Queensland, while detached housing construction in Western Australia might have reached a trough.</p>
<p>Growth in household income had remained low compared with the average of the preceding 20 years, the members suggested, with household income remaining subdued over the most recent couple of years.</p>
<p>Growth in labour income had increased to its highest rate since 2012, in line with solid growth in employment.</p>
<p>Wages growth remained low, consistent with ongoing spare capacity in the labour market and some structural forces that had also been evident in other economies.</p>
<p>To read the <a href="/expert-insights/finance/minutes-of-july-2018-monetary-policy-meeting-of-the-reserve-bank-board">full minutes click here.</a></p>
<p> </p>
</body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Top end prices in Sydney and Melbourne fall the most, while little change for lower-priced properties: RBA minutes

<html><body>
<p id="the-housing-market-in-the-illawarra-region">An outlook on the Illawarra housing market was provided by the RBA this week which highlighted the region had experienced some population growth.</p>
<p>Some of this has come from overseas students attending the University of Wollongong, and some has come from people migrating to the Illawarra region from Sydney.</p>
<p>As a result, the region still has a large working-age population, according to the RBA and ABS.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph11.gif" alt="Graph 11: Age Distribution"></p>
<p>The increase was partly because its geographic proximity and transport infrastructure allow people living in Wollongong and the Illawarra region to commute to Sydney.</p>
<p>Around 20% of Wollongong workers commute at least 50 kilometres to work. </p>
<p>Illawarra residents are also well placed to benefit from the projects taking place in Sydney's south and south-west, including the proposed “aerotropolis” around the new airport at Badgery's Creek.</p>
<p>Access to these growth areas will be enhanced if some of the recently announced transport infrastructure plans come to fruition, the RBA study suggested.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph12.gif" alt="Graph 12: Distance to Work 50+ km in NSW"></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Labour market conditions in the Illawarra region itself have also been strong recently, according to the RBA with these factors meaning that there has been strong employment growth in the Illawarra region over the past five years and the unemployment rate sat close to the average for New South Wales.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph13.gif" alt="Graph 13: Labour Market"></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Strong population growth and economic outlook have led to rising housing prices in the Illawarra region. </p>
<p>It has also lead to increased investment in residential construction.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph14.gif" alt="Graph 14: Median House Prices"></p>
<p>Alexandra Heath <span class="rss-speech-position">Head of the RBA's Economic Analysis Department stated that</span> the data showed that population trends and housing market developments in the Illawarra region are closely linked to those in Sydney.</p>
<p>This was partly because the transport infrastructure allows people to live in the Illawarra region and commute to Sydney and future transport infrastructure plans and the development associated with the Badgery's Creek airport are likely to strengthen these ties.</p>
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Illawarra housing market gets a boost from population growth: RBA

<html><body>
<p class="title"><strong>Alexandra Heath, the RBA's head of economic analysis, was speaking at the Urban Development Institute of Australia, Wollongong</strong></p>
<p>It is a great pleasure to be here today to talk to members of the UDIA in Wollongong. To start, I'm going to give an overview of how the Australian economy has been travelling and how the drivers of growth have been evolving. In particular, I'm going to highlight the growth in non-mining business investment and the fact that dwelling investment is no longer contributing, although it is likely to remain at a high level for some time. Then I am going to turn to the outlook for housing markets across states, focusing on differences in the drivers of demand and how they relate to demographic changes. Finally, I will take this process of disaggregation one step further to look at some of the factors that have been driving demand for housing in Wollongong and the Illawarra region. Clearly, the close proximity to Sydney, which is only likely to strengthen with improvements to transport infrastructure, is an important factor.</p>
<h2 id="the-macroeconomic-outlook">The Macroeconomic Outlook</h2>
<p>GDP growth in Australia has averaged around 2½ per cent over the past five years or so (Graph 1). This is a little bit below our estimates of trend growth, so you would say that growth has been decent, but not really enough to make significant inroads into the spare capacity in the economy. Low and stable wage pressures and consumer price inflation are also consistent with this general picture.</p>
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 1</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph1.gif" alt="Graph 1: GDP Growth">
</div>
<p>GDP growth picked up over the year to the March quarter to around 3 per cent, and more recent data have been positive. Our central forecast is for growth to be at or above 3 per cent over 2018 and 2019. This should lead to a further gradual reduction in spare capacity and a gradual increase in wage and inflationary pressures.</p>
<p>To understand this central forecast, it is necessary to look at how the composition of growth has been changing (Graph 2). The drag on growth from falling mining investment has diminished. This has played out largely as expected and we anticipate that most of its effect will be done by early next year. The contribution to growth from the public sector has also increased. The other two points I want to highlight are that there has been a significant pick-up in the contribution of investment by non-mining firms, but that dwelling investment is no longer contributing to growth.</p>
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 2</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph2.gif" alt="Graph 2: GDP Growth, year ended">
</div>
<p>The pick-up in non-mining business investment matters because it is hard to imagine a sustainable pick-up in growth without investment being a part of the story. New investment is required to replace depreciated capital and it is one of the ways new technology gets embedded into the way goods and services are delivered. So, long periods of weak investment growth can create concerns that the foundations are being laid for weak productivity growth in the future.</p>
<p>It is fair to say that we are now more confident about a sustainable pick-up in non-mining business investment. In 2015, our discussion of the risks around our forecasts highlighted the weakness in non-mining business investment and noted that indicators of investment intentions provided very little evidence that a recovery was imminent. This was despite the fact that many of the preconditions for a recovery, such as reports of above-average business conditions, were in place. We spent a considerable amount of effort trying to understand why investment outside the mining sector was low.<span class="footnote-reference"><a id="r1" href="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/sp-so-2018-07-05#fn1">[1]</a></span></p>
<p>Rolling forward, non-mining business investment grew by 10 per cent in year-ended terms in the most recent national accounts (Graph 3). A lot of the pick-up in non-mining business investment over recent years has been from the non-residential construction category, which includes a range of things like hotels and office blocks. The ‘other’ category, which includes investment in areas like computer software and research &amp; development, has also been adding noticeably to growth. Liaison suggests that many firms have been more willing to spend on IT, particularly software, to become more productive, reduce costs and improve their service quality.</p>
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 3</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph3.gif" alt="Graph 3: Private Non-Mining Business Investment">
</div>
<p>Machinery &amp; equipment investment has become increasingly important to the non-mining business investment growth story. The pick-up in public infrastructure work being done by the private sector is a part of this story (Graph 4). Our liaison contacts have reported that the recent increase in the flow of public infrastructure work, and expectations of further infrastructure spending based on both state and federal government commitments, have encouraged contractors in the construction industry to commit to investments in new construction equipment.</p>
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 4</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph4.gif" alt="Graph 4: Public Infrastructure">
</div>
<h2 id="the-outlook-for-housing">The Outlook for Housing</h2>
<p>As already noted, dwelling investment has gone from making a positive contribution to growth two years ago to being roughly flat over the year to March. In terms of our forecasts, dwelling investment is not expected to contribute much to growth over the next couple of years, but is expected to remain at a high level.</p>
<p>To understand the outlook, it is helpful to recognise that there isn't a single national housing market. At the state level, there have been some similarities in the evolution of dwelling investment, but there have also been distinct differences (Graph 5).</p>
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 5</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph5.gif" alt="Graph 5: Real Dwelling Investment">
</div>
<p>One point of similarity is that the construction of higher-density apartments has been much more important than in the past, especially in the east-coast capitals. We have used our liaison program quite extensively to understand how to adapt our forecasting processes to take into account that the time taken for a building approval to progress to construction and the period of construction is longer and more variable for high-density projects than for detached dwellings. The liaison program, which includes organisations such as the UDIA and its members, has also allowed us to gain deeper insights into specific local factors, such as differences in planning rules and the emergence of capacity constraints in the housing construction sector.</p>
<p>One point of difference across states has been the timing of dwelling investment cycles. For New South Wales and Victoria, the level of dwelling investment has been broadly stable at a high level since 2016. In contrast there has been a decline in higher-density construction in Queensland since early 2017. In Western Australia, residential construction peaked in mid 2015, which was well after the end of the mining boom. These differences highlight the fact that there are different demand and supply forces at work across the states. Given time constraints, I am going to focus my attention on the demand side of the market.</p>
<p>An important driver of housing demand over the long run is the rate at which new households are being formed. This depends on population growth and changes in the average number of people who are living in each household. Household size declined steadily in Australia between 1960 and 2000 before levelling out, alongside declines in marriage and fertility rates and population aging. The natural increase in the Australian population has also declined over time due to demographic factors. In particular, lower fertility rates have offset increased life expectancy (Graph 6). Having said that, the rate of natural increase in Australia's population remains higher than in most other advanced economies.</p>
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 6</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph6.gif" alt="Graph 6: Population Growth">
</div>
<p>Immigration has also been a feature of the population growth story and it has certainly been the dominant influence on the swings in population growth over the past decade. The largest single category of net overseas migration has been people on temporary student visas (Graph 7). Prior to the financial crisis, a large share of these students were coming to Australia for vocational training courses. Following changes to visa requirements, student visa numbers initially dropped, but have picked up again in recent years, mostly due to an increase in students attending university. To put this into perspective, education now accounts for around 10 per cent of Australia's total exports, which is in the same ball park as our rural exports. From the perspective of demand for housing, the important point is that most of these students have gone to Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 7</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph7.gif" alt="Graph 7: Net Overseas Migration">
</div>
<p>Another interesting category is skilled workers. The net inflow of people on skill visas increased in response to demand for workers during the mining boom. Most of these workers went to Western Australia and Queensland. At the same time, net migration to Western Australia and Queensland from other states and New Zealand also increased. As the mining sector transitioned from the construction to the production phase of the mining boom, the demand for labour fell. The number of people on skilled visas fell and the inflow of people from New Zealand and other Australian states turned to an outflow.</p>
<p>As a consequence, there have been quite large differences in population growth at the state level, which have had direct effects on the demand for housing (Graph 8). Population growth is expected to remain strong, particularly in Victoria and New South Wales, and the net overseas migration component of this is expected to be driven by people on student visas.</p>
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 8</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph8.gif" alt="Graph 8: Population Increase and Dwelling Investment">
</div>
<p>On the supply side, the pipeline of residential construction that has been approved, but not completed remains high in New South Wales and Victoria (Graph 9). There is also a reasonable pipeline of work in Queensland, although it has already started to decline. Based on recent approvals data and expected demand conditions, this suggests that dwelling investment in New South Wales and Victoria will remain at a high level for a number of years. Liaison contacts have suggested to us that capacity constraints in the construction industry, particularly in New South Wales, will make it difficult for construction activity to increase.</p>
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 9</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph9.gif" alt="Graph 9: Residential Dwelling Pipeline">
</div>
<p>Of course household formation and population growth are not the only drivers of housing demand. For example, interest rates and changes in lending standards can also influence how much households are willing and able to spend on housing. Another way to gauge the current balance of housing supply and demand is to look at housing price growth.</p>
<p>Over the past five years, housing price growth has been subdued in Brisbane and Perth (Graph 10). This is consistent with the fall in population growth coinciding with an increase in the supply of housing. In contrast, housing price growth has been strong until recently in Sydney and Melbourne, where population growth has been strong. Given that housing accounts for around 55 per cent of total household assets, we are paying close attention to these developments.</p>
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 10</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph10.gif" alt="Graph 10: Housing Price Growth">
</div>
<h2 id="the-housing-market-in-the-illawarra-region">The Housing Market in the Illawarra Region</h2>
<p>From a demand perspective, the Illawarra region has experienced a pick-up in population growth. Some of this has come from overseas students attending the University of Wollongong, and some has come from people migrating to the Illawarra region from Sydney. Although the Illawarra region is a little older, on average, than the rest of Australia and Sydney, it still has a large working-age population (Graph 11).</p>
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 11</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph11.gif" alt="Graph 11: Age Distribution">
</div>
<p>This is partly because its geographic proximity and transport infrastructure allow people living in Wollongong and the Illawarra region to commute to Sydney. Around 20 per cent of Wollongong workers commute at least 50 kilometres to work (Graph 12). This is one of the highest rates in the state. Unsurprisingly, five of the seven areas with higher shares of people commuting more than 50 kilometres are also within commuting distance of Sydney. Illawarra residents are also well placed to benefit from the fact that some of the fastest growing areas of Sydney are in south and south-west, including the proposed “aerotropolis” around the new airport at Badgery's Creek. Access to these growth areas will be enhanced if some of the recently announced transport infrastructure plans are realised.</p>
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 12</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph12.gif" alt="Graph 12: Distance to Work 50+ km in NSW">
</div>
<p>Although people from the Illawarra region can and do commute to Sydney, labour market conditions in the Illawarra region itself have also been strong recently (Graph 13). In combination, these factors mean that there has been strong employment growth for those living in the Illawarra region over the past five years and the unemployment rate is close to the average for New South Wales, which is, in turn, lower than the Australian unemployment rate.</p>
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 13</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph13.gif" alt="Graph 13: Labour Market">
</div>
<p>Strong population growth and the economic prosperity associated with strong labour market outcomes have led to higher housing prices in the Illawarra region (Graph 14). Just as in Sydney, developers have responded to the higher prices, and dwelling investment in the region has increased. Also similarly to Sydney, there has been a debate about whether the infrastructure has been growing fast enough to accommodate the needs of an expanding population and the increase in construction that goes with that.</p>
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 14</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph14.gif" alt="Graph 14: Median House Prices">
</div>
<h2 id="conclusion">Conclusion</h2>
<p>In summary, over the past couple of years, non-mining business investment has become a more important driver of growth in the Australian economy. This is a good thing because investment of this kind is necessary to ensure future productivity growth, which is ultimately what contributes to the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people. Infrastructure investment has been a part of this story.</p>
<p>At the same time, dwelling investment growth has eased off. Although dwelling investment is still expected to remain at a high level, particularly in New South Wales and Victoria, it is not likely to contribute much to growth over the next couple of years. Demand for housing remains strong because population growth is expected to stay strong. However, the housing story is different across states and across regions within states, partly because population trends differ. The effects of the mining investment cycle on population trends and housing markets in Western Australia is a clear-cut illustration of this point.</p>
<p>The data show that population trends and housing market developments in the Illawarra region are closely linked to those in Sydney, partly because the transport infrastructure allows people to live in the Illawarra region and commute to Sydney. Future transport infrastructure plans and the development associated with the Badgery's Creek airport are likely to strengthen these ties. As always, the key to effective urban development is high-quality, transparent cost-benefit analysis of potential infrastructure projects informed by local knowledge. The UDIA has an important role to play here. The UDIA and its members, in Wollongong and elsewhere, also have an important role to play in macroeconomic policy by informing the Bank's understanding of the factors at play in different housing markets through our liaison program.</p>
<div class="footnotes"> </div>
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The outlook for the housing market: RBA

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<p>The RBA have released their chart pack for the July cash rate decision.</p>
<p>We focus on the key charts which will have helped the institution come to its decision to hold rates at 1.5 percent for the 21st consecutive meeting. </p>
<p>Australia's GDP growth continues to rise to the highest point in the last three years.</p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/7/4/GDP-Growth.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/7/4/GDP-Growth.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Consumer price inflation stuttered after bouncing back from its record low in 2016.</p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/7/4/CPI-RBA.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/7/4/CPI-RBA.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Consumer sentiment continues to hover just above average.</p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/7/4/sentiment.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/7/4/sentiment.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>House prices continue to decline, however there's no slowing down of household debt which continues to climb, although at a slower rate.</p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/7/4/price%20and%20debt.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/7/4/price%20and%20debt.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Housing loan approvals continue to fall as the banks tighten their lending criteria.</p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/7/4/approvals.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/7/4/approvals.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>To see the <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/pdf/chart-pack.pdf?v=2018-07-04-11-34-08" target="_blank">full chart pack click here.</a></p>
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

RBA's July chart pack that helped make its cash rate hold

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<p>The sixth meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia for 2018 saw no change in the official cash rate.</p>
<p>The central bank's last move saw it go to 1.5 percent at the August 2016 meeting, so rates have been held steady for 21 meetings.</p>
<p>It was 22 meetings ago that they last came down. </p>
<p>Almost every economist predicted another hold.</p>
<p>CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless said it's looking more and more likely the cash rate will hold throughout 2019.</p>
<p>"Economic conditions remain reasonably stable, housing market growth continues to slow, household debt is at record highs, and inflation remains around the lower end of the RBA target range," Lawless said.</p>
<p>"With this scenario as a backdrop, the hold decision today from the RBA was widely anticipated. </p>
<p>"It is looking increasingly as if the cash rate will hold at record lows throughout 2019; this is the view of financial markets where the ASX cash rate yield curve indicates the cash rate will remain on hold until at least November 2019."</p>
<p>He said focus is now moving to mortgage rates.</p>
<p>"We are increasingly seeing upwards pressure from overseas funding costs.</p>
<p>"Already, smaller banks and non-banks, who are generally more exposed to wholesale debt costs, are pushing interest rates higher for select mortgage products.</p>
<p>"Larger banks, who are more reliant on domestic deposits to fund their home loans, have less exposure to higher funding costs.</p>
<p>"However it is likely margin pressures are becoming evident across the big end of town as well. </p>
<p>"Despite these early signs of some upwards pressure on mortgage rates, average variable rates remain almost 120 basis points below their decade average of 6.4%.</p>
<p>"Borrowers, particularly owner occupiers with principal and interest loans, should continue to expect a low mortgage rate over the medium term.</p>
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RBA keeps rates on hold for record 21st consecutive meeting

RBA continue to study 'risky' Bitcoin and its implications

<html><body>
<p><span>EXPERT OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>Broad themes and tone of the Minutes are consistent with earlier statements by the RBA. </span></p>
<p><span>The RBA still anticipates that the next move in rates is likely to be up, as stated by the Governor on June 13, but this phrase has been omitted from these Minutes.</span></p>
<p>The broad themes and tone of the Minutes of the June Board meeting were consistent with earlier statements from the RBA.</p>
<p>The final paragraph in the Considerations for Monetary Policy section was along the lines of the corresponding paragraph in the Decision Statement by the Governor following the June meeting. The key sentence is: “Further progress in the period ahead in reducing unemployment and returning inflation to the target was therefore expected, although this progress was likely to be gradual”.</p>
<p>We note that this differs from the Minutes for April and May, which instead included the statements that “members agreed that it was more likely that the next move in the cash rate would be up rather than down … members also agreed that there was not a strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy”.</p>
<p>We interpret this as a prudent tactic, omitting these statements from the Minutes now to avoid them becoming a key focus for markets. The RBA Governor in his speech of June 13 restated the line “it is likely that the next move in interest rates will be up, not down”, confirming that this remains the RBA’s central case view.</p>
<p>On the global economy, the Minutes note greater uncertainties, including: political developments in Italy; developments in some emerging markets; and the ongoing trade tensions. There is an acknowledgment that “growth in the major advanced economies had eased a little in the first quarter of 2018” but the view remains that “the underlying momentum in these economies had still been consistent with above trend growth”. Importantly, wage pressures are seen as increasing and it is noted that central banks are withdrawing some monetary stimulus.</p>
<p>On the domestic economy, the RBA’s central case view and forecasts are unchanged, “members noted that recent data had been consistent with the Bank’s central case forecast for GDP growth to pick up to be above 3% by the end of 2018”.</p>
<p>The June RBA Board meeting was held the day before the release of the March quarter National Accounts. The Minutes suggest that annual GDP growth was expected to pick up to at least 2.75%. As it turned out, the National Accounts surprised to the high side, with annual GDP growth printing at an above trend 3.1% and non-farm GDP growth a well above trend 3.6%.</p>
<p>For the RBA and other forecasters, the outlook for consumer spending remains a key uncertainty, at a time of high debt levels and weak wages growth. On jobs growth, the RBA expects the current slowdown to be temporary, with the Minutes pointing to the positive forward indicators, which would, in the view of the RBA, suggest a gradual decline in the unemployment rate and, in time, a gradual lift in wages growth.</p>
<p>Lastly, comments on housing were along the lines of earlier statements. In short, the sector is cooling and APRA’s supervisory measures and tighter lending standards are view by the RBA as being helpful in containing the build-up of risks on household balance sheets. As previously, there is also an acknowledgement that “there might be some further tightening of lending standards in the period ahead”, while at the same stating “the average mortgage interest rate on outstanding loans had declined over the previous year”.</p>
<p>We remain of the view that the RBA will be on hold throughout 2018 and 2019. We continue to expect annual GDP growth to be a trend 2.7% for December 2018, moderating to a below trend 2.5% in 2019 as wages growth remains sluggish, the downturn in home building activity accelerates and as global commodity prices ease from current levels, denting national income growth. </p>
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Next cash rate hike forecast missing from RBA minutes: Westpac's Andrew Hanlan

<html><body>
<div>The Reserve Bank released its Board Meeting Minutes today for June 2018. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I noted the other day that there was an addition in June relating to declining mortgage rates on outstanding loans. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It was interesting to note that in today's release the wording was given a little tweak to add a bit more clarity, suggesting that mortgage rates on new housing are no longer falling. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XUa5IBHKl30/Wyi8hJGD8LI/AAAAAAAAqqQ/uOGb4cMNgIYJvLI3hzpxqcC0W1ZQETVaQCLcBGAs/s400/RBA%2BTweak.jpg" width="392" height="400" data-original-height="713" data-original-width="704"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>There was a bit of discussion about the positive impacts of immigration on the ageing population.<br><br>Australia has experienced strong population growth over the past decade.<br><br>Thanks to young migrants, notably the median age had declined in New South Wales and Victoria.<br><br>There was a murmur of excitement due to there being no direct reference to the next move in rates being up.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Not sure I'd read too much into that personally, although currency markets flickered a little!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There was also a reference to wages being 'low and stable' which isn't wording that exactly screams imminent tightening, although there is reportedly some evidence of wage pressures in parts of the economy. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In any event, reality is dawning on financial markets, with RBA meeting overnight indexed swaps looking increasingly skinny and now not pricing in a hike until 2020. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-DKhJxLca4W0/Wyi8IWgEHSI/AAAAAAAAqqI/S7QL7LzI-4kS9hTrJTk-Uw1HH1ntXiVTQCLcBGAs/s640/OIS.jpg" width="640" height="406" data-original-height="787" data-original-width="1240"></div>
<p> </p>
<div><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source: Martin Whetton, ANZ</span></em></div>
<p><br><span>And a lot might change between now and 2020 - including the government.</span><br><br><span>As you were.</span></p>
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