National diversified developer Fortis has officially launched Crest &amp; Walker, its latest Brisbane apartment development, with construction now underway on the 20-storey Newstead project.

Award-winning builder BINAH has commenced construction on the Bureau^Proberts-designed building, which will deliver a limited collection of 65 two and three-bedroom apartments on Kyabra Street.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373556]

The project marks Fortis' fourth active residential development in Brisbane, following River House, which is nearing completion, alongside projects in New Farm and Hamilton as the national developer continues to expand its South East Queensland pipeline.

Fortis General Manager – Development Queensland Dan Boman said Crest &amp; Walker reflects the developer's long-term commitment to delivering design-led residential projects in Brisbane's established inner-city suburbs.

"We're proud to be strengthening our presence in Brisbane with Crest &amp; Walker, particularly in such a sought-after lifestyle destination as Newstead," Boman said.

"Every Fortis project is shaped by its context, and we approach each one with the respect and care it deserves.

"Our focus is always on creating places that feel connected to their neighbourhood and elevate the everyday experience for residents. Newstead continues to evolve as one of Brisbane's most sought-after urban communities, and Crest &amp; Walker reflects our ambition to contribute meaningfully to that story."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373559]

Positioned between Gasworks Plaza and James Street, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crest-walker-newstead-12-kyabra-street-newstead-qld-4006">Crest &amp; Walker</a> has been designed as a boutique residential address offering privacy and generous living spaces within one of Brisbane's most established lifestyle precincts.

The building features a contemporary brick podium softened by integrated landscaping, while the upper levels are characterised by restrained architecture and enduring materiality. Interiors have been designed to maximise natural light, acoustic performance and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373583]

Residences comprise spacious two and three-bedroom floorplans, with two-bedroom apartments priced from $1.55 million and three-bedroom, half-floor residences from $3.95 million.

Residents will have access to a wellness-focused rooftop featuring a swimming pool, sauna, steam room, landscaped dining spaces and outdoor lounge areas overlooking Newstead and the Brisbane CBD.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373571]

Sales are being managed by Slaite Projects, with Fortis expecting strong demand from owner-occupiers seeking a high-quality, design-focused apartment in one of Brisbane's most tightly held inner-city suburbs.

Completion of Crest &amp; Walker is slated for late 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145922]

Joel Robinson

Fortis expands Brisbane pipeline with launch of Crest & Walker in Newstead

The enormity of delivering a true skyscraper in Australia's new development market is often overlooked.

It has taken the best part of a decade since plans for Chevron One were first unveiled, but the 52-storey tower is now complete, with residents collecting their keys and moving into what has become one of the Gold Coast's most recognisable new landmarks.

Rising 127 metres above Chevron Island, Chevron One stands almost twice as high as any other building on the island. Its scale places it alongside the trio of towers at Jewel, arguably the last truly significant addition to the central Gold Coast skyline when they were completed around six years ago.

While there are several developments underway around a similar height to Chevron One, they are more concentrated within clusters of the highest towers in the city. The fact Chevron One sits within a developing precinct, looking back at the other high-rise developments in Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach, makes it a different proposition altogether. It will certainly become a reference point on the Gold Coast skyline.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68833]

Developer Bensons Property Group is behind the 52-storey tower, which has just shy of 250 apartments, along with an exhaustive list of resident amenity spread across what is the largest development site ever assembled on Chevron Island.

The tower has been the talk of the town for years, says Ray White Projects Gold Coast agent Caitlin Rosenboom, who is selling the remaining apartments.

"People have been watching Chevron One go up for years," Rosenboom says, adding that many prospective buyers have been surprised by the scale of the views once they step inside.

"It's only when they walk through a completed apartment that they truly understand the position of the building," Rosenboom says.

"The views are jaw-dropping. Whether you're looking east over the ocean, across Surfers Paradise, along the river systems or out to the hinterland, every level offers something different but equally impressive."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=360215]

One of Chevron One's defining advantages is its location on the eastern side of Chevron Island on Stanhill Drive, a position which protects the views forever.

"There's only one row of houses between Chevron One and the water, and the height restrictions along the river means views from Chevron One can never be built out,"&nbsp;Rosenboom says.

While new apartment developments continue to emerge across the Gold Coast, Rosenboom says opportunities to secure a completed apartment with this level of outlook are becoming increasingly rare.

"The size of the site is something that would be incredibly difficult to replicate today," she says.

"That's allowed Chevron One to deliver the sort of amenity, open space and resident facilities that very few projects can offer. There are not many completed apartment buildings on the Gold Coast right now that can compete with the combination of scale, quality and amenity."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68839]

There's around 2,000 sqm of amenity solely for the use of residents of Chevron One. Club One features a uniquely shaped swimming pool that mirrors the footprint of the building itself, set within a extensively landscaped gardens. There's also an indoor pool and spa, a fully equipped gym with a Pilates room, a yoga garden, a bookable private dining area and lounge that can host up to 30 people, and a 24-hour concierge service.

As for the buyers, Rosenboom is fielding enquiry from everywhere: Sydneysiders and Melburnians looking at the new and off-the-plan market following the changes in the Federal Budget, as well as those looking to relocate, through to South East Queenslanders seeking either a permanent home or a weekender bolthole.

"The Gold Coast lifestyle continues to resonate with people relocating from the southern states, and when they see the views and the quality of what's been delivered at Chevron One, it becomes very easy for them to understand the appeal," Rosenboom says.

A diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments remain available, with each offering "something a little different", be it the orientation and views, configuration, or level, to suit a wide variety of buyers.

The remaining apartments are ready to inspect in person, by appointment.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6515]

A decade in the making: Residents to move into Chevron One as construction wraps up

A general rule of thumb in new apartment developments is that the penthouses get the rooftop.

It's a formula that's become commonplace across Australia's apartment market. Residents might have access to a pool, gym or barbecue facilities on a dedicated lower level, but the most desirable outdoor spaces are typically reserved for the highest-priced homes at the top of the building.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Property Group</a> has taken the opposite approach.

Rather than dedicating the rooftop to a handful of buyers, the Gold Coast developer has made it the centrepiece of its Flourish collection, creating expansive shared spaces from the best vantage point in the building.

The philosophy has reached its most ambitious expression at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> in Palm Beach, where two rooftop precincts connected by a skybridge will deliver one of the most extensive lifestyle offerings seen in a residential apartment project on the Gold Coast.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374053]

"We're seeing a clear move toward developments that offer more than just an apartment," Sherpa Group founder Christie Leet said.

"People want spaces that support how they actually live, whether that's working from home, staying active, or spending time with family and friends.

"That's where amenity becomes critical. It's not just about what's included, but how those spaces are designed to be used every day."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374052]

The breadth of amenity has already attracted buyers across multiple demographics. Younger first home buyers have been drawn to Soleira's one-bedroom apartments, a product rarely delivered in Palm Beach, while families have responded to practical inclusions such as the shallow children's pool adjoining the main lap pool and the extensive communal recreation areas.

Instead of a single rooftop, Soleira delivers two distinct lifestyle zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=372547]

The southern rooftop has been dedicated to wellness, featuring a gym, yoga and Pilates studio, work-from-home facilities, a wellness centre, spa, and hot and cold plunge pools.

The northern rooftop focuses on recreation and entertaining, incorporating a heated resort-style pool, private dining rooms, pizza ovens, barbecues, a golf simulator, children's recreation areas, and what is expected to be the Gold Coast's first rooftop basketball court, which will also double as a squash court.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374054]

Beyond the rooftops, Soleira will introduce 1,500 sqm of curated retail beneath the towers, creating one of Palm Beach's first genuinely mixed-use lifestyle precincts where cafés, restaurants and convenience retail become part of residents' everyday lives.

Sherpa has also retained management rights across the development, allowing it to oversee the long-term operation of the building through a 24-hour concierge model. The developer is also exploring additional revenue streams within the precinct aimed at helping offset ongoing body corporate costs for residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370962]

While Soleira is the largest project Sherpa has delivered, the rooftop-first philosophy has been evolving for several years.

It began with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>, the first project released under the Flourish brand. Rather than competing at the ultra-luxury end of the market with oversized half-floor and full-floor residences, Sherpa focused on creating lifestyle-driven apartments supported by resort-style shared spaces.

Amargo introduced more than 800 sqm of rooftop amenity, combining wellness facilities, heated pools, entertaining areas, cabanas, pizza ovens and private dining spaces into what was designed as an extension of residents' homes rather than a facility used only occasionally.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=366550]

That approach continued with Flourish Oasis, where the same amenity-led philosophy was refined into a more boutique development. Strong demand from Sherpa's growing VIP database saw much of the project sold before it reached the broader market, reinforcing buyer appetite for apartment communities centred around shared lifestyle experiences.

Flourish Amargo is slated for completion mid-way-through next year, with Oasis to be delivered by late 2027. Flourish Soleira is expected to complete in 2030.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa takes amenity to the sky as Flourish Soleira captures booming Palm Beach demand

As apartment living continues to evolve across Sydney's growth corridors, the quality and distribution of shared spaces is increasingly shaping how residents experience home. Rather than functioning as add-ons, amenities are being embedded into the daily rhythm of a building, supporting everything from quiet retreat to social interaction, often within a single vertical community.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aeris-melrose-park-nursery-street-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Aeris</a> in Melrose Park, this approach is resolved through a layered amenity offering that unfolds from ground level through to its upper podium. Developed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a> in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties, the project introduces 468 apartments across two towers and a mid-rise building, positioned at the highest point of the broader masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=359199]

The amenity experience begins at street level, where two courtyards sit within a landscaped setting that connects residents to the wider network of parks and green spaces. These green spaces are not isolated pockets but part of a wider pedestrian network that links Aeris to the surrounding <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a> precinct, including Central Park, future schools, and the Town Centre opening in July 2026. The result is a transition that moves from public to private without abrupt boundaries, allowing residents to pass through shaded, tree-lined environments before reaching the building itself.

Moving upward, the focus shifts to the level five podium, where the primary communal facilities are concentrated. This space brings together a 16-metre swimming pool, outdoor seating areas, and a communal BBQ zone arranged to take advantage of elevated outlooks. Seating is positioned beneath pergolas, creating pockets of shade that extend the usability of the space throughout the day. The pool edge aligns with views toward the wider district, reinforcing the sense of elevation that defines the project’s positioning.

In the adjacent building, this is complemented by quieter, more contemplative spaces, including an outdoor cinema set within the same level. Positioned to operate primarily in the evening, it introduces a different tempo to the shared environment, shifting from daytime activity to after-hours use without requiring separate zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360299]

The podium also accommodates an intimate private resident gym. Located on the lower levels, it gives residents convenient access to fitness facilities without leaving the building.

Above, the elevated podium sky deck extends the amenity offering, providing additional open-air spaces with elevated outlooks across the surrounding landscape. While more restrained in program, this upper level reinforces the project’s vertical progression, from ground-level greenery to elevated outlook, allowing residents to move between distinct spatial conditions within a single address.

This distribution of amenities reflects a deliberate response to how residents use space across the day. Sekisui House Australia Sales and Marketing Director Peter Kalaf points to the role these shared areas play in shaping buyer demand. Aeris has been conceived as more than a collection of apartments, with the podium pool, gym and outdoor cinema forming part of a broader lifestyle offering that extends the home beyond each individual residence.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360300]

What distinguishes Aeris is not the inclusion of these elements individually, but how they are arranged in relation to one another. Active, social, and passive spaces are layered vertically rather than separated, allowing residents to choose between them without leaving the building or moving far from their apartment. This proximity supports both routine use, such as a morning swim or evening workout, and more occasional gatherings, whether around the BBQ area or within the cinema setting.

The amenity design also sits within a broader framework of connectivity across Melrose Park. The Melrose Park Town Centre, anchored by Coles and Dan Murphys, features a mix of retail, dining, health and lifestyle offerings, bringing everyday convenience closer to residents. By the end of the year, more than five hectares of parks and open space, equivalent to around seven football fields of green space on residents' doorstep, will further enhance the precinct, allowing the internal facilities at Aeris to operate as an extension of the wider neighbourhood rather than a substitute for it.

Construction at Aeris continues to gather momentum, with ground floor slabs expected to be completed in late 2026 before the first sections of the buildings begin to rise above ground.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=426]

Elevated amenity anchors daily life at Aeris, Melrose Park

Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tsioMLcnjas?si=zq-ys3JuWpfa5hFv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Rba Insights

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Minutes of August 2018 Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board

Minutes of July 2018 Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board

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In the July meeting minutes, the RBA discussed the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets decline.
The minutes suggested house prices had fallen by almost five percent in Sydney over the preceding year after its significant increases in previous years.
"Members observed that prices in Sydney and Melbourne had fallen the most for more expensive properties, while prices of lower-priced properties had been little changed, consistent with the typical pattern of larger fluctuations in prices at the higher end of the market," the minutes read.
"In the other state capitals, housing prices had been fairly steady, with the exception of Hobart, where prices had picked up markedly given strong demand and supply constraints."
The members noted that data from the national accounts suggested dwelling investment had peaked in late 2016, although residential construction cycles had differed significantly across the states.
"In New South Wales, dwelling investment in higher-density projects had remained at a high level since the beginning of 2016," the minutes read.
They said liaison contacts had suggested there were capacity constraints in Sydney, which meant that, given the large amount of work in the pipeline in New South Wales, construction activity was likely to remain at a high level for some time.
The minutes noted that dwelling investment in Victoria was also likely to remain at a high level for some time.
"Members noted that more of this activity had been in detached dwellings and that ‘greenfield’ land sites had generally been more readily available in Victoria.
"By contrast, the construction cycle for apartments had clearly passed its peak in Queensland, while detached housing construction in Western Australia might have reached a trough.
Growth in household income had remained low compared with the average of the preceding 20 years, the members suggested, with household income remaining subdued over the most recent couple of years.
Growth in labour income had increased to its highest rate since 2012, in line with solid growth in employment.
Wages growth remained low, consistent with ongoing spare capacity in the labour market and some structural forces that had also been evident in other economies.
To read the <a href="/expert-insights/finance/minutes-of-july-2018-monetary-policy-meeting-of-the-reserve-bank-board">full minutes click here.</a>
 
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Top end prices in Sydney and Melbourne fall the most, while little change for lower-priced properties: RBA minutes

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An outlook on the Illawarra housing market was provided by the RBA this week which highlighted the region had experienced some population growth.
Some of this has come from overseas students attending the University of Wollongong, and some has come from people migrating to the Illawarra region from Sydney.
As a result, the region still has a large working-age population, according to the RBA and ABS.
<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph11.gif" alt="Graph 11: Age Distribution">
The increase was partly because its geographic proximity and transport infrastructure allow people living in Wollongong and the Illawarra region to commute to Sydney.
Around 20% of Wollongong workers commute at least 50 kilometres to work. 
Illawarra residents are also well placed to benefit from the projects taking place in Sydney's south and south-west, including the proposed “aerotropolis” around the new airport at Badgery's Creek.
Access to these growth areas will be enhanced if some of the recently announced transport infrastructure plans come to fruition, the RBA study suggested.
<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph12.gif" alt="Graph 12: Distance to Work 50+ km in NSW">
 
Labour market conditions in the Illawarra region itself have also been strong recently, according to the RBA with these factors meaning that there has been strong employment growth in the Illawarra region over the past five years and the unemployment rate sat close to the average for New South Wales.
<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph13.gif" alt="Graph 13: Labour Market">
 
Strong population growth and economic outlook have led to rising housing prices in the Illawarra region. 
It has also lead to increased investment in residential construction.
<img src="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph14.gif" alt="Graph 14: Median House Prices">
Alexandra Heath Head of the RBA's Economic Analysis Department stated that the data showed that population trends and housing market developments in the Illawarra region are closely linked to those in Sydney.
This was partly because the transport infrastructure allows people to live in the Illawarra region and commute to Sydney and future transport infrastructure plans and the development associated with the Badgery's Creek airport are likely to strengthen these ties.
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Illawarra housing market gets a boost from population growth: RBA

<html><body>
Alexandra Heath, the RBA's head of economic analysis, was speaking at the Urban Development Institute of Australia, Wollongong
It is a great pleasure to be here today to talk to members of the UDIA in Wollongong. To start, I'm going to give an overview of how the Australian economy has been travelling and how the drivers of growth have been evolving. In particular, I'm going to highlight the growth in non-mining business investment and the fact that dwelling investment is no longer contributing, although it is likely to remain at a high level for some time. Then I am going to turn to the outlook for housing markets across states, focusing on differences in the drivers of demand and how they relate to demographic changes. Finally, I will take this process of disaggregation one step further to look at some of the factors that have been driving demand for housing in Wollongong and the Illawarra region. Clearly, the close proximity to Sydney, which is only likely to strengthen with improvements to transport infrastructure, is an important factor.
<h2 id="the-macroeconomic-outlook">The Macroeconomic Outlook</h2>
GDP growth in Australia has averaged around 2½ per cent over the past five years or so (Graph 1). This is a little bit below our estimates of trend growth, so you would say that growth has been decent, but not really enough to make significant inroads into the spare capacity in the economy. Low and stable wage pressures and consumer price inflation are also consistent with this general picture.
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 1</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph1.gif" alt="Graph 1: GDP Growth">
</div>
GDP growth picked up over the year to the March quarter to around 3 per cent, and more recent data have been positive. Our central forecast is for growth to be at or above 3 per cent over 2018 and 2019. This should lead to a further gradual reduction in spare capacity and a gradual increase in wage and inflationary pressures.
To understand this central forecast, it is necessary to look at how the composition of growth has been changing (Graph 2). The drag on growth from falling mining investment has diminished. This has played out largely as expected and we anticipate that most of its effect will be done by early next year. The contribution to growth from the public sector has also increased. The other two points I want to highlight are that there has been a significant pick-up in the contribution of investment by non-mining firms, but that dwelling investment is no longer contributing to growth.
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 2</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph2.gif" alt="Graph 2: GDP Growth, year ended">
</div>
The pick-up in non-mining business investment matters because it is hard to imagine a sustainable pick-up in growth without investment being a part of the story. New investment is required to replace depreciated capital and it is one of the ways new technology gets embedded into the way goods and services are delivered. So, long periods of weak investment growth can create concerns that the foundations are being laid for weak productivity growth in the future.
It is fair to say that we are now more confident about a sustainable pick-up in non-mining business investment. In 2015, our discussion of the risks around our forecasts highlighted the weakness in non-mining business investment and noted that indicators of investment intentions provided very little evidence that a recovery was imminent. This was despite the fact that many of the preconditions for a recovery, such as reports of above-average business conditions, were in place. We spent a considerable amount of effort trying to understand why investment outside the mining sector was low.<a id="r1" href="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/sp-so-2018-07-05#fn1">[1]</a>
Rolling forward, non-mining business investment grew by 10 per cent in year-ended terms in the most recent national accounts (Graph 3). A lot of the pick-up in non-mining business investment over recent years has been from the non-residential construction category, which includes a range of things like hotels and office blocks. The ‘other’ category, which includes investment in areas like computer software and research &amp; development, has also been adding noticeably to growth. Liaison suggests that many firms have been more willing to spend on IT, particularly software, to become more productive, reduce costs and improve their service quality.
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 3</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph3.gif" alt="Graph 3: Private Non-Mining Business Investment">
</div>
Machinery &amp; equipment investment has become increasingly important to the non-mining business investment growth story. The pick-up in public infrastructure work being done by the private sector is a part of this story (Graph 4). Our liaison contacts have reported that the recent increase in the flow of public infrastructure work, and expectations of further infrastructure spending based on both state and federal government commitments, have encouraged contractors in the construction industry to commit to investments in new construction equipment.
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 4</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph4.gif" alt="Graph 4: Public Infrastructure">
</div>
<h2 id="the-outlook-for-housing">The Outlook for Housing</h2>
As already noted, dwelling investment has gone from making a positive contribution to growth two years ago to being roughly flat over the year to March. In terms of our forecasts, dwelling investment is not expected to contribute much to growth over the next couple of years, but is expected to remain at a high level.
To understand the outlook, it is helpful to recognise that there isn't a single national housing market. At the state level, there have been some similarities in the evolution of dwelling investment, but there have also been distinct differences (Graph 5).
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 5</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph5.gif" alt="Graph 5: Real Dwelling Investment">
</div>
One point of similarity is that the construction of higher-density apartments has been much more important than in the past, especially in the east-coast capitals. We have used our liaison program quite extensively to understand how to adapt our forecasting processes to take into account that the time taken for a building approval to progress to construction and the period of construction is longer and more variable for high-density projects than for detached dwellings. The liaison program, which includes organisations such as the UDIA and its members, has also allowed us to gain deeper insights into specific local factors, such as differences in planning rules and the emergence of capacity constraints in the housing construction sector.
One point of difference across states has been the timing of dwelling investment cycles. For New South Wales and Victoria, the level of dwelling investment has been broadly stable at a high level since 2016. In contrast there has been a decline in higher-density construction in Queensland since early 2017. In Western Australia, residential construction peaked in mid 2015, which was well after the end of the mining boom. These differences highlight the fact that there are different demand and supply forces at work across the states. Given time constraints, I am going to focus my attention on the demand side of the market.
An important driver of housing demand over the long run is the rate at which new households are being formed. This depends on population growth and changes in the average number of people who are living in each household. Household size declined steadily in Australia between 1960 and 2000 before levelling out, alongside declines in marriage and fertility rates and population aging. The natural increase in the Australian population has also declined over time due to demographic factors. In particular, lower fertility rates have offset increased life expectancy (Graph 6). Having said that, the rate of natural increase in Australia's population remains higher than in most other advanced economies.
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 6</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph6.gif" alt="Graph 6: Population Growth">
</div>
Immigration has also been a feature of the population growth story and it has certainly been the dominant influence on the swings in population growth over the past decade. The largest single category of net overseas migration has been people on temporary student visas (Graph 7). Prior to the financial crisis, a large share of these students were coming to Australia for vocational training courses. Following changes to visa requirements, student visa numbers initially dropped, but have picked up again in recent years, mostly due to an increase in students attending university. To put this into perspective, education now accounts for around 10 per cent of Australia's total exports, which is in the same ball park as our rural exports. From the perspective of demand for housing, the important point is that most of these students have gone to Sydney and Melbourne.
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 7</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph7.gif" alt="Graph 7: Net Overseas Migration">
</div>
Another interesting category is skilled workers. The net inflow of people on skill visas increased in response to demand for workers during the mining boom. Most of these workers went to Western Australia and Queensland. At the same time, net migration to Western Australia and Queensland from other states and New Zealand also increased. As the mining sector transitioned from the construction to the production phase of the mining boom, the demand for labour fell. The number of people on skilled visas fell and the inflow of people from New Zealand and other Australian states turned to an outflow.
As a consequence, there have been quite large differences in population growth at the state level, which have had direct effects on the demand for housing (Graph 8). Population growth is expected to remain strong, particularly in Victoria and New South Wales, and the net overseas migration component of this is expected to be driven by people on student visas.
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 8</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph8.gif" alt="Graph 8: Population Increase and Dwelling Investment">
</div>
On the supply side, the pipeline of residential construction that has been approved, but not completed remains high in New South Wales and Victoria (Graph 9). There is also a reasonable pipeline of work in Queensland, although it has already started to decline. Based on recent approvals data and expected demand conditions, this suggests that dwelling investment in New South Wales and Victoria will remain at a high level for a number of years. Liaison contacts have suggested to us that capacity constraints in the construction industry, particularly in New South Wales, will make it difficult for construction activity to increase.
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 9</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph9.gif" alt="Graph 9: Residential Dwelling Pipeline">
</div>
Of course household formation and population growth are not the only drivers of housing demand. For example, interest rates and changes in lending standards can also influence how much households are willing and able to spend on housing. Another way to gauge the current balance of housing supply and demand is to look at housing price growth.
Over the past five years, housing price growth has been subdued in Brisbane and Perth (Graph 10). This is consistent with the fall in population growth coinciding with an increase in the supply of housing. In contrast, housing price growth has been strong until recently in Sydney and Melbourne, where population growth has been strong. Given that housing accounts for around 55 per cent of total household assets, we are paying close attention to these developments.
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 10</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph10.gif" alt="Graph 10: Housing Price Growth">
</div>
<h2 id="the-housing-market-in-the-illawarra-region">The Housing Market in the Illawarra Region</h2>
From a demand perspective, the Illawarra region has experienced a pick-up in population growth. Some of this has come from overseas students attending the University of Wollongong, and some has come from people migrating to the Illawarra region from Sydney. Although the Illawarra region is a little older, on average, than the rest of Australia and Sydney, it still has a large working-age population (Graph 11).
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 11</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph11.gif" alt="Graph 11: Age Distribution">
</div>
This is partly because its geographic proximity and transport infrastructure allow people living in Wollongong and the Illawarra region to commute to Sydney. Around 20 per cent of Wollongong workers commute at least 50 kilometres to work (Graph 12). This is one of the highest rates in the state. Unsurprisingly, five of the seven areas with higher shares of people commuting more than 50 kilometres are also within commuting distance of Sydney. Illawarra residents are also well placed to benefit from the fact that some of the fastest growing areas of Sydney are in south and south-west, including the proposed “aerotropolis” around the new airport at Badgery's Creek. Access to these growth areas will be enhanced if some of the recently announced transport infrastructure plans are realised.
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 12</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph12.gif" alt="Graph 12: Distance to Work 50+ km in NSW">
</div>
Although people from the Illawarra region can and do commute to Sydney, labour market conditions in the Illawarra region itself have also been strong recently (Graph 13). In combination, these factors mean that there has been strong employment growth for those living in the Illawarra region over the past five years and the unemployment rate is close to the average for New South Wales, which is, in turn, lower than the Australian unemployment rate.
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 13</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph13.gif" alt="Graph 13: Labour Market">
</div>
Strong population growth and the economic prosperity associated with strong labour market outcomes have led to higher housing prices in the Illawarra region (Graph 14). Just as in Sydney, developers have responded to the higher prices, and dwelling investment in the region has increased. Also similarly to Sydney, there has been a debate about whether the infrastructure has been growing fast enough to accommodate the needs of an expanding population and the increase in construction that goes with that.
<div class="image-graph">
<div class="title">Graph 14</div>
<img src="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2018/images/sp-so-2018-07-05-graph14.gif" alt="Graph 14: Median House Prices">
</div>
<h2 id="conclusion">Conclusion</h2>
In summary, over the past couple of years, non-mining business investment has become a more important driver of growth in the Australian economy. This is a good thing because investment of this kind is necessary to ensure future productivity growth, which is ultimately what contributes to the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people. Infrastructure investment has been a part of this story.
At the same time, dwelling investment growth has eased off. Although dwelling investment is still expected to remain at a high level, particularly in New South Wales and Victoria, it is not likely to contribute much to growth over the next couple of years. Demand for housing remains strong because population growth is expected to stay strong. However, the housing story is different across states and across regions within states, partly because population trends differ. The effects of the mining investment cycle on population trends and housing markets in Western Australia is a clear-cut illustration of this point.
The data show that population trends and housing market developments in the Illawarra region are closely linked to those in Sydney, partly because the transport infrastructure allows people to live in the Illawarra region and commute to Sydney. Future transport infrastructure plans and the development associated with the Badgery's Creek airport are likely to strengthen these ties. As always, the key to effective urban development is high-quality, transparent cost-benefit analysis of potential infrastructure projects informed by local knowledge. The UDIA has an important role to play here. The UDIA and its members, in Wollongong and elsewhere, also have an important role to play in macroeconomic policy by informing the Bank's understanding of the factors at play in different housing markets through our liaison program.
<div class="footnotes"> </div>
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The outlook for the housing market: RBA

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The RBA have released their chart pack for the July cash rate decision.
We focus on the key charts which will have helped the institution come to its decision to hold rates at 1.5 percent for the 21st consecutive meeting. 
Australia's GDP growth continues to rise to the highest point in the last three years.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/7/4/GDP-Growth.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/7/4/GDP-Growth.jpg" alt="">
Consumer price inflation stuttered after bouncing back from its record low in 2016.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/7/4/CPI-RBA.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/7/4/CPI-RBA.jpg" alt="">
Consumer sentiment continues to hover just above average.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/7/4/sentiment.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/7/4/sentiment.jpg" alt="">
House prices continue to decline, however there's no slowing down of household debt which continues to climb, although at a slower rate.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/7/4/price%20and%20debt.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/7/4/price%20and%20debt.jpg" alt="">
Housing loan approvals continue to fall as the banks tighten their lending criteria.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/7/4/approvals.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/7/4/approvals.jpg" alt="">
To see the <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/pdf/chart-pack.pdf?v=2018-07-04-11-34-08" target="_blank">full chart pack click here.</a>
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

RBA's July chart pack that helped make its cash rate hold

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The sixth meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia for 2018 saw no change in the official cash rate.
The central bank's last move saw it go to 1.5 percent at the August 2016 meeting, so rates have been held steady for 21 meetings.
It was 22 meetings ago that they last came down. 
Almost every economist predicted another hold.
CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless said it's looking more and more likely the cash rate will hold throughout 2019.
"Economic conditions remain reasonably stable, housing market growth continues to slow, household debt is at record highs, and inflation remains around the lower end of the RBA target range," Lawless said.
"With this scenario as a backdrop, the hold decision today from the RBA was widely anticipated. 
"It is looking increasingly as if the cash rate will hold at record lows throughout 2019; this is the view of financial markets where the ASX cash rate yield curve indicates the cash rate will remain on hold until at least November 2019."
He said focus is now moving to mortgage rates.
"We are increasingly seeing upwards pressure from overseas funding costs.
"Already, smaller banks and non-banks, who are generally more exposed to wholesale debt costs, are pushing interest rates higher for select mortgage products.
"Larger banks, who are more reliant on domestic deposits to fund their home loans, have less exposure to higher funding costs.
"However it is likely margin pressures are becoming evident across the big end of town as well. 
"Despite these early signs of some upwards pressure on mortgage rates, average variable rates remain almost 120 basis points below their decade average of 6.4%.
"Borrowers, particularly owner occupiers with principal and interest loans, should continue to expect a low mortgage rate over the medium term.
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RBA keeps rates on hold for record 21st consecutive meeting

RBA continue to study 'risky' Bitcoin and its implications

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Broad themes and tone of the Minutes are consistent with earlier statements by the RBA. 
The RBA still anticipates that the next move in rates is likely to be up, as stated by the Governor on June 13, but this phrase has been omitted from these Minutes.
The broad themes and tone of the Minutes of the June Board meeting were consistent with earlier statements from the RBA.
The final paragraph in the Considerations for Monetary Policy section was along the lines of the corresponding paragraph in the Decision Statement by the Governor following the June meeting. The key sentence is: “Further progress in the period ahead in reducing unemployment and returning inflation to the target was therefore expected, although this progress was likely to be gradual”.
We note that this differs from the Minutes for April and May, which instead included the statements that “members agreed that it was more likely that the next move in the cash rate would be up rather than down … members also agreed that there was not a strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy”.
We interpret this as a prudent tactic, omitting these statements from the Minutes now to avoid them becoming a key focus for markets. The RBA Governor in his speech of June 13 restated the line “it is likely that the next move in interest rates will be up, not down”, confirming that this remains the RBA’s central case view.
On the global economy, the Minutes note greater uncertainties, including: political developments in Italy; developments in some emerging markets; and the ongoing trade tensions. There is an acknowledgment that “growth in the major advanced economies had eased a little in the first quarter of 2018” but the view remains that “the underlying momentum in these economies had still been consistent with above trend growth”. Importantly, wage pressures are seen as increasing and it is noted that central banks are withdrawing some monetary stimulus.
On the domestic economy, the RBA’s central case view and forecasts are unchanged, “members noted that recent data had been consistent with the Bank’s central case forecast for GDP growth to pick up to be above 3% by the end of 2018”.
The June RBA Board meeting was held the day before the release of the March quarter National Accounts. The Minutes suggest that annual GDP growth was expected to pick up to at least 2.75%. As it turned out, the National Accounts surprised to the high side, with annual GDP growth printing at an above trend 3.1% and non-farm GDP growth a well above trend 3.6%.
For the RBA and other forecasters, the outlook for consumer spending remains a key uncertainty, at a time of high debt levels and weak wages growth. On jobs growth, the RBA expects the current slowdown to be temporary, with the Minutes pointing to the positive forward indicators, which would, in the view of the RBA, suggest a gradual decline in the unemployment rate and, in time, a gradual lift in wages growth.
Lastly, comments on housing were along the lines of earlier statements. In short, the sector is cooling and APRA’s supervisory measures and tighter lending standards are view by the RBA as being helpful in containing the build-up of risks on household balance sheets. As previously, there is also an acknowledgement that “there might be some further tightening of lending standards in the period ahead”, while at the same stating “the average mortgage interest rate on outstanding loans had declined over the previous year”.
We remain of the view that the RBA will be on hold throughout 2018 and 2019. We continue to expect annual GDP growth to be a trend 2.7% for December 2018, moderating to a below trend 2.5% in 2019 as wages growth remains sluggish, the downturn in home building activity accelerates and as global commodity prices ease from current levels, denting national income growth. 
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Next cash rate hike forecast missing from RBA minutes: Westpac's Andrew Hanlan

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<div>The Reserve Bank released its Board Meeting Minutes today for June 2018. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I noted the other day that there was an addition in June relating to declining mortgage rates on outstanding loans. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It was interesting to note that in today's release the wording was given a little tweak to add a bit more clarity, suggesting that mortgage rates on new housing are no longer falling. </div>
 
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XUa5IBHKl30/Wyi8hJGD8LI/AAAAAAAAqqQ/uOGb4cMNgIYJvLI3hzpxqcC0W1ZQETVaQCLcBGAs/s400/RBA%2BTweak.jpg" width="392" height="400" data-original-height="713" data-original-width="704"></div>
 
<div>There was a bit of discussion about the positive impacts of immigration on the ageing population. Australia has experienced strong population growth over the past decade. Thanks to young migrants, notably the median age had declined in New South Wales and Victoria. There was a murmur of excitement due to there being no direct reference to the next move in rates being up.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Not sure I'd read too much into that personally, although currency markets flickered a little!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There was also a reference to wages being 'low and stable' which isn't wording that exactly screams imminent tightening, although there is reportedly some evidence of wage pressures in parts of the economy. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In any event, reality is dawning on financial markets, with RBA meeting overnight indexed swaps looking increasingly skinny and now not pricing in a hike until 2020. </div>
 
<div class="separator"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-DKhJxLca4W0/Wyi8IWgEHSI/AAAAAAAAqqI/S7QL7LzI-4kS9hTrJTk-Uw1HH1ntXiVTQCLcBGAs/s640/OIS.jpg" width="640" height="406" data-original-height="787" data-original-width="1240"></div>
 
<div>Source: Martin Whetton, ANZ</div>
 And a lot might change between now and 2020 - including the government. As you were.
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