Preliminary data by research giant Charter Keck Cramer reveals a 54 per cent decline in Build to Sell apartments across Australia's capital cities, while the Build to Rent boom continues with a 378 per cent increase over the last five years.

Charter Keck Cramer's upcoming National State of the Market Report - Key Metropolitan Areas, scheduled for release in September, will reveal&nbsp;a dramatic transformation in apartment supply patterns across Australia's capital cities between FY2016-2020 and FY2021-2025.

The Build to Sell (BTS) apartment sector has experienced a substantial contraction, with total supply falling by 54 per cent compared to the previous five-year period. The decline represents a reduction of 149,200 apartments across all capital cities.

<img alt="BTS Charter Keck Cramer" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3db2ddf3-e7c0-481f-b8b9-63efb365cb80" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-08-20%20at%2011.26.34%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=bsQl8inhZA7FeiPamnGvw1tse0obBdSd" />

Sydney led the downturn with a decrease of 73,600 apartments, followed by Melbourne (-42,800) and Brisbane (-26,800). Perth and Adelaide also recorded significant declines of 6,400 and 2,400 apartments respectively. Only Gold Coast and Canberra bucked the trend, with modest increases of 500 and 2,300 apartments.

In stark contrast, the Build to Rent (BTR) sector has emerged as a major force in the apartment market, recording a remarkable 378% increase in supply. This growth added 8,590 apartments across the capital cities during FY2021-2025. Melbourne dominated BTR growth with 6,160 additional apartments, while Sydney contributed 2,100 units. Brisbane and Canberra also recorded growth of 800 and 330 apartments respectively. Gold Coast and Perth recorded minor declines, while Adelaide maintained steady levels.

<img alt="BTR CKC" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ca13ffd4-ab93-4828-afd2-4c3dccbd2b51" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-08-20%20at%2011.28.54%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=SXNnpcJuFD36ViWOwF6izBBqcQc3NWao" />

“These preliminary findings indicate a fundamental shift in Australia's apartment development landscape, with traditional Build to Sell models giving way to institutional Build to Rent developments,” said Richard Temlett, Charter Keck Cramer’s National Executive Director of Research.

"This transition reflects changing investor preferences, regulatory environments and housing affordability challenges across major metropolitan areas.”

The complete Charter Keck Cramer National State of the Market Report – Key Metropolitan Areas will provide comprehensive analysis of these trends, their underlying drivers and implications for developers, investors and policymakers when released in September.

Joel Robinson

Build to Sell apartment supply drops 54% in five years across Australian capital cities

Verso Development Group is seeking to bring over 1,100 apartments to the heart of Brisbane's Toowong, with plans filed for a $1 billion, triple tower development known as Toowong Central.

The landmark urban regeneration project "aims to reshape the core of Brisbane’s inner-west riverside suburb."

Covering over 1.4-hectares across&nbsp;Sherwood Road, High Street, and Jephson Street, Toowong Central has been designed by KHA and will comprise three towers rising 49, 55, and 58 levels.

<img alt="Toowong Central" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="48611e3d-7123-4b99-b2cb-bfa4bc98024f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/amenities.png?VersionId=yKBexB.BgCkq4OET8fHDkWs0d3DjxOKJ" />

According to the Urban Context Report prepared by Urbis, Toowong Central is positioned as a “city-defining precinct reclaiming Toowong as ‘the best destination in the west’,” with a vision to deliver density differently, strengthen Toowong’s identity, and lead subtropical urban design.

There will be a wide range of apartment configurations, from one-bedrooms to five-bedroom penthouses, as well as short-term accomodation offerings. The design prioritises pedestrian permeability, with an activated public realm featuring a central civic plaza, laneways, and street-level retail and dining.

“The central square’s structure, programming, scale and location creates a social anchor - shaped by its edges, flexible for use, and animated by a diversity of experiences throughout the day and into the evening,” the Urban Context Report noted, reinforcing the project's ambition to become a vibrant community destination.

Design excellence was pursued through an international design competition, attracting entries from renowned practices such as UNStudio and BIG. KHA’s winning design distinguished itself with a ceremonial approach to the public realm, integrating terraces, tiered seating, and green infrastructure to promote social interaction and resilience.

The development builds upon two existing approvals: the 25- and 20-storey towers of the Aviary Toowong proposal, and a separate 25- and 24-storey approval at 88 Jephson Street. Consolidation of these fragmented landholdings under a precinct-wide approach allows for increased community value and cohesive urban integration.

Urbis Director Nicholas Stevenson said Toowong Central will bridge the gap in Toowong's current experience, unlocking the potential of the wider precinct.

"Overcoming experiential constraints and leveraging contextual advantages – Toowong Central will redefine Brisbane's inner west.”

<img alt="Toowong Central" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73f7a702-625d-452d-9df2-30a0863ac1e8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/master.png?VersionId=TZdh6wxGC_8IIroXpdkZfuhlS8mFZnea" />

Toowong Central’s ambition extends beyond residential and commercial outcomes. Uses under consideration include a world-class hotel, university facilities, a museum, and health and wellness services, reflecting its role as a western gateway to Brisbane’s growing innovation corridor between the CBD and the University of Queensland.

Urbis Managing Partner James Tuma said Brisbane has no greater opportunity to showcase the future of urban living than Toowong – a sustainable, economically vibrant, and people-centric place that embodies the best of Brisbane.

[The plans] gives us a glimpse into our future as a globally relevant, youthful, entrepreneurial, and distinctly subtropical city.”

$1 billion Toowong Central to deliver 1,100 apartments to undersupplied Brisbane market

In <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/runaway-bay-qld-4216">Runaway Bay</a>, new townhouse-scale waterfront residences are rare - but ones built to the standards found on Sovereign Island are almost unheard of.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/ocean-suites-on-jennifer-10-12-jennifer-avenue-runaway-bay-qld-4216">Ocean Suites on Jennifer</a>&nbsp;changes that, delivering a calibre of construction and detailing that places its seven villas well above the typical market offering in this northern Gold Coast pocket.

Ocean Suites on Jennifer will be move-in ready before Christmas this year, giving buyers the chance to spend the summer on the water in one of Runaway Bay’s rare new waterfront residences.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138718 project_image_fid=214444]

The development is a collaboration between <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/stuart-osman">Stuart Osman Design</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sand-side-developments">Sand Side Developments</a>, with construction by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/alroe-constructions">Alroe Constructions</a>.

Architect Stuart Osman says the intent from the outset was to create a home people would be drawn to. “When you build anything, the design is to make you want to go hang out in this house,” he says.&nbsp;

Ocean Suites on Jennifer’s design features a front façade softened with planter boxes, rear pool areas, and rooftop decks looking over the water.&nbsp;

Inside, voids and high skylights bring daylight deep into the centre of each home, while ceiling heights of 2.85 metres maintain a strong sense of volume.

Each four-level residence spans 345 to 388 sqm, with layouts accommodating multi-generational living - a ground-floor bedroom suite for older family members and upper levels for the rest of the household. A lift connects all floors.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138718 project_image_fid=214435]

For Andrew Erwin, Director at NPA, the project’s appeal lies in both its location and the detail in execution.&nbsp;

"At Ocean Suites, you’ve got a canal-front setting with direct Broadwater access and a level of finish you’d normally only see in the city’s most prestigious addresses. The four-level layouts, the glass-framed living areas, the private pools, even the extended kitchens, every part of it has been designed with the buyer in mind,” he says.

Those buyers have so far been a mix of Gold Coast locals and interstate purchasers, many seeking a lock-up-and-leave holiday home or a downsized residence without sacrificing space for visiting family.&nbsp;

Older households with teenage children are a recurring profile, drawn to layouts that support multi-generational living and the ability to host extended stays.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138718 project_image_fid=214432]

Material selection reinforces the project’s quality-first ethos, with every home appointed to a premium standard. Kitchens and ensuites feature engineered stone surfaces, complemented by prestige oak engineered timber floors, Victorian ash hardwood staircases, and soft loop-pile carpet.

Premium lighting, statement pendants, ceiling fans, and Fujitsu ducted air conditioning elevate both comfort and design. Each residence also includes a suite of high-end appliances as standard - Fisher &amp; Paykel integrated fridges, Bosch ovens, induction cooktops and dishwashers, Vintec wine fridges, and Franke sinks.

Beyond the interiors, residents enjoy an enviable lifestyle with rooftop terraces, private plunge pools, fire pit areas, outdoor showers, smart home automation, laundry chutes, and private pontoons.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138718 project_image_fid=214452]

With no additional upgrade costs, Sand Side Developments underscores its no-shortcuts approach, delivering homes where luxury and amenity come as standard.

Osman adds that the kitchen has been designed as “the main hub of the house” with six metres high skylights above a galley-style layout that “makes it feel bigger, brighter, whiter” and “brings light into the centre of the home.”

Both architect and builder emphasise a shared commitment to delivering the intended design without compromise. “Working with Alroe’s structural team and their construction team, it’s been great to make sure that the look and feel that was originally intended is the result achieved at the end of the project,” Osman says.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138718 project_image_fid=214453]

Outdoor living has been given equal consideration, with rooftop terraces designed for entertaining with a fire pit and bar, and spacious undercover patios featuring private plunge pools.

The marine access is as carefully executed as the homes themselves. An eight-metre gangway leads to a six-metre private pontoon capable of mooring vessels up to 30 feet, just 300 metres by water from the Broadwater.&nbsp;

Even the orientation of each villa has been optimised to capture long views down the canal, across the Broadwater, and south to Main Beach.

With construction in its final stages, just three of the seven villas remain, priced from $3.365 million to $3.695 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=138718]

Sovereign Island standards come to Runaway Bay with Ocean Suites on Jennifer

Without local developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a>, it could be argued that the small suburb of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/nundah-qld-4012">Nundah</a> would be left behind when it comes to both new housing and retail opportunities.

Gardner Vaughan, one of South East Queensland’s most reputable builder-developers, has been based in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/nundah-qld-4012">Nundah</a> for the last decade. They plan to maintain their presence in the northern <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/brisbane-qld">Brisbane</a> suburb, just seven kilometres from Brisbane Airport and nine kilometres from the city, with the development of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/danby-lane-nundah-village-5-danby-lane-nundah-qld-4012">Danby Lane</a>, the first major project in several years in the heart of the town centre.

GVG will retain one of the commercial spaces in the new mixed-use building for their office headquarters. It will be located in the commercial podium, alongside several other new office spaces. Below will be a street-level retail precinct designed to reinvigorate the local economy, and above, 84 brand-new apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112531 project_image_fid=320114]

Over 60 percent of the apartments have already been snapped up, with buyers eager to secure one of the rare new apartments in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/nundah-qld-4012">Nundah</a>, as well as to benefit from Gardner Vaughan’s solid reputation and long-standing presence in the local community.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112531 project_image_fid=320117]

Gardner Vaughan identified the site at the corner of Buckland Road and Danby Lane for its proximity to key amenities. Within 400 metres of the development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/nundah-qld-4012">Nundah</a> Village offers a variety of cafes, restaurants, and pubs. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/nundah-qld-4012">Nundah</a> Train Station, just 400 metres away, provides a quick 20-minute train ride into Roma Street.

The development has also attracted young families, drawn to the proximity of not one, but twelve parks, with Boyd Park and Oxenham Park being the most notable. Established families have shown interest due to the close proximity of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/nundah-qld-4012">Nundah</a> State School and Mary MacKillop College.

The one- and two-bedroom apartments in the building have already been snapped up, while the larger three- and four-bedroom apartments—ranging from a generous 117 sqm to nearly 200 sqm—remain highly sought after. There are also just three exclusive luxury penthouses left to sell.

With its in-house construction capability, Gardner Vaughan has already commenced construction on-site and expects to complete the building by March 2027. It's hard to see another opportunity to buy brand new in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/nundah-qld-4012">Nundah</a>, where creating a site anywhere near the scale of the Danby Lane is becoming more and more difficult.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112531]

Why Danby Lane is the focal point for change in Brisbane's Nundah

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/metro-property-group">Metro Property Group</a>’s flagship townhouse development, Citrine Townhomes in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/rochedale-qld-4123">Rochedale</a>, has reached another key construction milestone, with the first stage of townhouses now in the defects phase.

All building works for Stage 1 are complete, with the internal roads asphalted, line marking finished, and the bin store slab poured.&nbsp;All essential services, including permanent power, sewer, gas, and water, are now connected and operational.

The defects process is expected to continue until late-August.

<img alt="Citrine Townhomes, Rochedale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f48ad1d8-7bb2-424a-a378-2caa4d34c27d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/017%20-%20%20ROLLEY%20PHOTO%20MEDIA%20%20%20-24072025.jpg?VersionId=o5BC3LgYTwxcufsjldO8mkPww3gix1NC" />

Stage 2 is also moving forward steadily, with all townhouses sheeted, the first coat of paint applied, and joinery installed throughout. Tiling has been completed on six of the seven blocks, and the pool is scheduled to be pebblecreted by the end of August.

Stage 3 continues to gather momentum, with external cladding completed on three of the eight blocks. All townhouses have been fully roughed-in for electrical, plumbing, and air conditioning, and the first two blocks have now progressed to internal sheeting.

Stage 1 and 2 are 100 per cent sold and there are now just 10 four-bedroom townhomes left in Stage 3, priced from $1,125,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136295 project_image_fid=211]

Residents at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/citrine-townhomes-rochedale-311-gardner-road-rochedale-qld-4123">Citrine Townhomes</a> can also look forward to high-quality shared amenities. The residents' facility will feature a pool, landscaped areas, and a BBQ space, contributing to a lifestyle-focused community environment.

Metro’s fully furnished display home has generated strong interest locally, reinforcing the market’s confidence in the project. Stage 1 and 2 are completely sold out and Stage 3 has officially launched and is selling fast. Just 10 townhouses remain for sale in the development.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136295 project_image_fid=273134]

The broader Citrine development comprises 90 three and four-bedroom townhomes designed across two to three levels, offering a contemporary contrast to Rochedale’s surrounding single-family homes.

Located just 17 km from Brisbane CBD, Citrine is within walking distance to schools, parks, and the popular Rochedale Village, home to Coles, medical services, and dining options.

Metro Property Group remains on track for project completion, with settlements forecast for Stage 1 in October/November 2025, Stage 2 in November/December 2025, and Stage 3 in January/February 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=136295]

First stage of townhouses at Citrine Rochedale reaches completion milestone

The RBA halted their aggressive cash rate increases at the April meeting, opting to not hike rates for an 11th consecutive time.

They left the cash rate unchanged at 3.6 per cent.

Below is the RBA statement by RBA Governor Philip Lowe.

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 3.60&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent and the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances unchanged at 3.50&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent.

This decision follows a cumulative increase in interest rates of 3½&nbsp;percentage points since May last year. The Board recognises that monetary policy operates with a lag and that the full effect of this substantial increase in interest rates is yet to be felt. The Board took the decision to hold interest rates steady this month to provide additional time to assess the impact of the increase in interest rates to date and the economic outlook.

Global inflation remains very high. In headline terms it is moderating, although services price inflation remains high in many economies. The outlook for the global economy remains subdued, with below-average growth expected this year and next. The recent banking system problems in the United States and Switzerland have resulted in volatility in financial markets and a reassessment of the outlook for global interest rates. These problems are also expected to lead to tighter financial conditions, which would be an additional headwind for the global economy.

The Australian banking system is strong, well capitalised and highly liquid. It is well placed to provide the credit that the economy needs.

A range of information, including the monthly CPI indicator, suggests that inflation has peaked in Australia. Goods price inflation is expected to moderate over the months ahead due to global developments and softer demand in Australia. Meanwhile, rents are increasing at the fastest rate in some years, with vacancy rates low in many parts of the country. The prices of utilities are also rising quickly. The central forecast is for inflation to decline this year and next, to around 3&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent in mid-2025. Medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored, and it is important that this remains the case.

Growth in the Australian economy has slowed, with growth over the next couple of years expected to be below trend. There is further evidence that the combination of higher interest rates, cost-of-living pressures and a decline in housing prices is leading to a substantial slowing in household spending. While some households have substantial savings buffers, others are experiencing a painful squeeze on their finances.

The labour market remains very tight. The unemployment rate is at a near 50-year low and underemployment is also low. Many firms continue to experience difficulty hiring workers, although some report an easing in labour shortages and the number of vacancies has declined a little. As economic growth slows, unemployment is expected to increase.

Wages growth is continuing to increase in response to the tight labour market and higher inflation. At the aggregate level, wages growth is still consistent with the inflation target, provided that productivity growth picks up. The Board remains alert to the risk of a prices-wages spiral, given the limited spare capacity in the economy and the historically low rate of unemployment. Accordingly, it will continue to pay close attention to both the evolution of labour costs and the price-setting behaviour of firms.

The Board’s priority is to return inflation to target. High inflation makes life difficult for people and damages the functioning of the economy. And if high inflation were to become entrenched in people’s expectations, it would be very costly to reduce later, involving even higher interest rates and a larger rise in unemployment. The Board is seeking to return inflation to the&nbsp;2–3&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent target range while keeping the economy on an even keel, but the path to achieving a soft landing remains a narrow one.

The Board expects that some further tightening of monetary policy may well be needed to ensure that inflation returns to target. The decision to hold interest rates steady this month provides the Board with more time to assess the state of the economy and the outlook, in an environment of considerable uncertainty. In assessing when and how much further interest rates need to increase, the Board will be paying close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in household spending and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that.

The RBA halted their aggressive cash rate increases at the April meeting, opting to not hike rates for an 11th consecutive time.

RBA holds official cash rate at April meeting

RBA Governor Statement

The economic recovery in Australia has been stronger than was earlier expected. The recent outbreaks of the virus are, however, interrupting the recovery and GDP is expected to decline in the September quarter. The experience to date has been that once virus outbreaks are contained, the economy bounces back quickly. Prior to the current virus outbreaks, the Australian economy had considerable momentum and it is still expected to grow strongly again next year. The economy is benefiting from significant additional policy support and the vaccination program will also assist with the recovery.

The economic outlook for the coming months is uncertain and depends upon the evolution of the health situation and the containment measures. Beyond that, the Bank&#39;s central scenario is for the economy to grow by a little over 4&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent over 2022 and by around 2&frac12; per&nbsp;cent over 2023. This scenario is based on a significant share of the population being vaccinated by the end of this year and a gradual opening up of the international border from the middle of 2022. The Board also considered a range of other scenarios, with the main source of uncertainty being the health situation.

The labour market has recovered faster than expected, with the unemployment rate declining further to 4.9&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent in June. Job vacancies have remained at a high level and there are reports of labour shortages in parts of the economy. Some increase in the unemployment rate is expected in the near term due to the current lockdowns, but most of the adjustment in the labour market is likely to take place through a reduction in hours worked and in participation. In the central scenario, the unemployment rate continues to trend lower next year, to be around 4&frac14; per&nbsp;cent at the end of 2022 and 4&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent at the end of 2023.

The CPI inflation rate spiked to 3.8&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent for the year to the June quarter, largely reflecting the unwinding of some earlier&nbsp;COVID-19-related price declines. In underlying terms, inflation remains low, at around 1&frac34; per&nbsp;cent.

Looking forward, a pick-up in both wages growth and underlying inflation is expected, but this pick-up is likely to be only gradual. In the Bank&#39;s central scenario, it takes some years for the stronger economy to feed through into wage and price increases that are consistent with the inflation target. In underlying terms, inflation is expected to be 1&frac34; per&nbsp;cent over 2022 and 2&frac14; per&nbsp;cent over 2023. One source of uncertainty is the behaviour of wages and prices at the low levels of forecast unemployment, including because it is some decades since Australia has sustained an unemployment rate around 4&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent.

Housing markets have continued to strengthen, with prices rising in all major markets. Housing credit growth has picked up, with strong demand from owner-occupiers, including first-home buyers. There has also been increased borrowing by investors. Given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the Bank is monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.

Domestic financial conditions remain very accommodative, sovereign bond yields have declined and the exchange rate has depreciated to around its lowest level this year, despite elevated levels of commodity prices. The recent fiscal responses by the Australian Government and the state and territory governments are also providing welcome support to the economy at a time of significant short-term disruption.

The Board remains committed to maintaining highly accommodative monetary conditions to support a return to full employment in Australia and inflation consistent with the target. Together, the low level of the cash rate, the bond purchase program, the yield target and the ongoing funding that has been provided under the Term Funding Facility are providing substantial support to the Australian economy in the face of lockdowns in parts of the country and the expected resumption of the economic expansion.

The Board will maintain its flexible approach to the rate of bond purchases. The program will continue to be reviewed in light of economic conditions and the health situation, and their implications for the expected progress towards full employment and the inflation target. The Board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2&nbsp;to 3&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent target range. The central scenario for the economy is that this condition will not be met before 2024. Meeting this condition will require the labour market to be tight enough to generate wages growth that is materially higher than it is currently.

RBA hold rates, notes investor lending increase: RBA Governor Philip Lowe's August 2021 meeting statement

The RBA has noted that housing prices had increased significantly in recent months.&nbsp;

&quot;Growth in housing prices had been especially strong for detached housing, particularly in outer metropolitan and regional areas,&quot; according to the RBA.

&quot;This had partly reflected strong demand from first-home buyers and owner-occupiers seeking more space.&quot;

&quot;The momentum in housing price increases had broadened recently to include the largest capital cities and the more expensive segments of these markets, although the increase in overall housing prices in Australia during the pandemic had been more modest than in a number of other countries.&quot;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=95292 project_image_fid=156359]

The minutes did not only single out New Zealand.

The minutes did note cross-country differences in population growth stemming from international border closures.&nbsp;

&quot;In some countries, including Canada, which had experienced high and rising rates of immigration in the years prior to the pandemic, population growth had slowed substantially.&quot;

&quot;In New Zealand, some of the slowdown in population growth had been mitigated by the return of expatriate New Zealand citizens during the pandemic; in turn, it was likely that this had contributed to the increase in housing demand in New Zealand.&quot;

The minutes noted the decline in population growth in Australia had been particularly steep relative to other countries; in the 3 months to September, the Australian population had declined for the first time in several decades as a result of a reversal in net overseas migration.&nbsp;

&quot;However, in countries where net migration had contributed less to population growth in the years before the pandemic, including the United States, population trends had been little changed in recent quarters.&quot;

The minutes also noted that globally, asset prices had been increasing given the low levels of interest rates.&nbsp;

&quot;Housing prices, in particular, had increased strongly in a number of countries in the latter part of 2020 and early 2021.&quot;

&quot;Growth in housing credit had increased in a number of these countries, but it generally remained slower than growth in housing prices.&quot;

It noted that in Australia growth in both housing credit and housing prices had picked up, &quot;but to a lesser extent.&quot;

Annualised growth in housing credit had been around 4&frac12; per cent over the 6 months to February, driven by demand from owner-occupiers.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=3494 project_image_fid=90814]

The minutes noted demand for new housing finance had been strong, and the high level of loan commitments indicated that housing credit growth was likely to increase in the months ahead.&nbsp;

&quot;However, there was no notable evidence of a deterioration in housing lending standards.&nbsp;

&quot;The share of loans with higher loan-to-valuation ratios had increased, but this was in part explained by the larger share of first-home buyers.&quot;

&quot;The share of loans with high debt-to-income ratios had been relatively stable.&quot;

&quot;Members agreed that it would be important to watch carefully for increased risk-taking by lenders and any deterioration in lending standards and larger shares of higher-risk loans.&quot;

The members noted that low interest rates had been one of the factors contributing to the increase in demand for housing, alongside other policies such as government grants.&nbsp;

The latest minutes noted advertised rents had also picked up in a number of capital cities recently, although, as in other countries, housing prices had increased by more than rents.

&quot;Rents and overall conditions in the apartment market in Melbourne, and to a lesser extent in Sydney, remained subdued as the reduction in net overseas migration was still lowering demand,&quot; it noted.

The RBA says the increase in overall housing prices in Australia during the pandemic had been more modest than in a number of other countries

jchancellor

Australia's housing price rises more modest than overseas: RBA

<html><body>
EXPERT INSIGHT

The Reserve Bank’s Financial Stability Review (FSR) has taken a balanced approach to the risks for the Australian economy associated with rising house prices.

On the one hand it points out that: “In an environment of accommodative financial conditions with rising asset prices it is particularly important that there is not excessive risk-taking by the financial sector ... increasing the debt-related risks to the economy and financial system from a fall in asset prices and borrowers’ income.”

The Bank describes these risks as: “looser lending standards for individual loan assessments, or a relaxation of internal limits on the share of riskier loans ... [or from] increased risk-taking by optimistic borrowers which could see a deterioration in the average quality of new lending”.

This last style of risk appears to be with investors in mind.

To date, however, the Bank describes lending standards as largely unchanged and remaining robust: “the share of high LVR lending increased over the second half of 2020 but remains low by historical standards.”

Furthermore: “credit growth has increased but remains modest and has mostly been driven by lending to owner occupiers" although “investor loan commitments have started to rise.”

Our own analysis of loan approvals points to investor commitments rising by 31% in the last six months compared to gains of 24% for 'upgraders' and 30% for first home buyers.

However the loan approvals to investors account for around 32% of the total housing loans (including all owner occupiers) compared to 65% in 2017 when APRA introduced a range of controls aimed at curtailing investor activity.

On the other hand the Bank points out the solid starting point that will support the resilience of the system to the potential “increased risk-taking by optimistic borrowers”. It highlights the improved quality of household balance sheets in the wake of higher house prices (“the share of loans for which the value of the loan exceeds the value of the property has fallen to around 1.25% down from 3% a year ago”).

Household balance sheets also remain in good shape from the perspective of repayment buffers ("Around half of all mortgages have prepayment buffers equivalent to more than 3 months' worth of repayments and, 
for more than one-quarter of loans the buffer exceeds 2 years' worth of repayments" while "the share of loans with prepayment buffers of only one month ... remains close to its pre pandemic level of 40%” and “most loans with low prepayments do not represent large risks to lenders”).

Around two thirds of those with low prepayment buffers are held by investors and/or fixed- rate borrowers with the remaining group of relatively 'risky' borrowers having declined to around 10% of all loans from 15% a year ago.

Other specific risks have also eased. In particular, housing loans on prepayment deferrals have declined to 0.7% of all housing loans from a peak of 11% in May 2020.

House price movements to date are also put into perspective – Sydney and Melbourne prices are now a little above their historical peaks in 2017/18, having risen by 5% over the year compared to the 11% increase in regional areas.

Westpac has forecast national dwelling prices to rise by around 20% over the course of 2021 and 2022. That would put Sydney and Melbourne prices 12–15% above their 2017 peaks by end 2022 – an annual rate of increase of 2–3%, hardly worthy of being described in the emotional vernacular as a 'bubble'.

While the FSR sketches out the risks to the economy of lending excesses associated with rising house prices, current observations point to lenders remaining well disciplined while, at the same time, household balance sheets have strengthened.

The overall impression from the Review is that authorities are some way from seeing the need to adopt any direct controls on lenders to address risks associated with rising house prices.

Westpac continues to expect no significant containment measures in 2021.

The FSR also highlights risks around the outlook for business insolvencies and commercial property.

1. Business insolvencies

Businesses in the arts and recreation, accommodation and food, and transport sectors have continued to receive significant support from the government. Firms in these sectors also tend to be more highly geared and have low levels of liquidity.

The highest risks in these areas are around SMEs (although the share of SMEs with deferred repayments has fallen to just over 1%).

Notwithstanding this, the Review expects insolvencies to rise further for some months although some factors are likely to help moderate the rise – cash supports that allowed businesses to wind down operations without entering into insolvency.

Changes to the insolvency framework and the recently announced SME Recovery Loan Scheme are expected to assist SMEs.

2. Commercial Property – Offices

The FSR notes: “impairment rates on commercial property remain low, consistent with relatively low LVRs and strong debt covenants”.

However these impairments are expected to rise in the CBD office markets where vacancy rates in Sydney and Melbourne have reached 20 year highs.

The low number of sales transactions increases the uncertainty about recent price trends.

3. Commercial Property – Retail

Rents and valuations have declined by 6 and 15% respectively since 2019 – particularly challenged by the rise of online shopping.

However the dominance of the large real estate investment trusts in this sector significantly reduces contagion risks. Nearly all REIT securities are held by institutions. They entered the pandemic in good financial health with low gearing and were well-placed to absorb the earnings reductions from rent waivers.

Bill Evans is the Chief Economist a Westpac
</body></html>

The Reserve Bank's Financial Stability Review has taken a balanced approach to the risks for the Australian economy associated with rising house prices.

bevans

RBA's Financial Stability Review notes risks but no immediate alarms around housing: Bill Evans

<html><body>
The Reserve Bank has warned there was a risk that low interest rates could lead to "over-exuberence" with asset prices, including in the housing market.

The RBA suggested Australian banks' lending standards remained prudent and that households, businesses and banks were well-placed to deal with any weakening economic conditions.

But the central bank warned of a risk that assets could be pushed beyond their fundamental value.

"A sustained period of rising asset prices may lead to over-exuberance ... with increased risk-taking and leverage in an environment of accommodative financial conditions," it noted in its biannual financial stability review, released on Friday

“A correction in asset prices, if borrowers’ income were to fall and so they defaulted on debt repayments, would expose lenders to large losses on the increased debt, particularly if the quality of that debt had been eroded.”

The review also noted households and businesses that derive their incomes from sectors most heavily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic face an elevated risk of repayment difficulties "if their buffers prove to be insufficient.” 

The RBA said these risks were greatest for leveraged assets, including housing, which thereby meant it was crucial banks did not cut credit standards.

"[In this environment] it is particularly important that there is no excessive risk-taking by the financial sector," the RBA said.

"Even if lenders do not weaken their own settings, increased risk-taking by optimistic borrowers could see a deterioration in the average quality of new lending."

"This would weaken the resilience of businesses and households, and so the financial system, to future shocks," the RBA concluded.
</body></html>

The RBA suggested that Australian banks' lending standards remained prudent

RBA warns on "over exuberance" in home buying

<html><body>The RBA will need to be careful not to be too heavy handed when it comes to any measures to limit the real estate boom, Westpac economist Bill Evans has said.

"A repeat of the experience of 2018–2019 when Sydney (–15%) and Melbourne (–11%) dwelling prices deteriorated sharply with the unintended consequence of slowing the economy overall will need to be avoided," Evans said.

"For Australia, a period of very low official rates will always risk financial instability in the housing market," he noted

"The RBA Governor, with good reason, currently sounds relaxed. 

"The emphasis is on housing credit growth where he notes, “investor and business credit growth remain weak.” 

"But the warning that “Lending standards remain sound and it is important that they remain so.” is an addition to earlier statements and really summarises the Board’s approach to the current housing boom," Evans noted after the latest RBA minutes were released.

"The RBA has successfully slowed housing markets in both 2015 and 2017 using these “various tools” without needing to raise rates.

"It seems reasonable that another round of such policies can be expected sometime in 2022 but the authorities will need to be careful not to be too heavy handed," Evans said.
</body></html>

The RBA has successfully slowed housing markets in 2015 and 2017, Bill Evans noted

RBA should not be "too heavy handed" towards real estate market: Bill Evans

<html><body>
The RBA has noted that unusual population trends during the pandemic had materially affected national housing market conditions and other parts of the economy, and would continue to do so for some time. 

The latest minuted noted net overseas migration was expected to be negative into 2022, mostly because of the projected sharp decline in the number of foreign students and other temporary residents. 

"As temporary residents typically live in the larger cities, their absence had especially dampened demand for apartments in Sydney and Melbourne."

The RBA also noted data on domestic migration in Australia showing that the population flow from capital cities to regional areas had picked up. 

"Net domestic migration to Melbourne had also turned sharply negative as fewer people moved there during the pandemic. 

"The members agreed that developments in net overseas and domestic migration would continue to affect conditions in the housing market and the economy more broadly for a considerable period."

The minutes also noted the outlook for the global economy had improved over prior months, but "was likely to remain bumpy and uneven" with better prospects for a sustained recovery. 

"An important near-term issue was how households and businesses would adjust to the tapering of some fiscal support measures. 

"Members noted that there may be a temporary pause in the pace of improvement in the labour market, as many firms had already adjusted the size of their workforces."

The members also discussed the effect that low interest rates have on financial and macroeconomic stability.

"They acknowledged the risks inherent in investors searching for yield in a low interest rate environment, including risks linked to higher leverage and asset prices, particularly in the housing market. 

"Members noted that lending standards remained sound and that it was important that they remain so in an environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates. 

"The Board concluded that there were greater benefits for financial stability from a stronger economy, while acknowledging the importance of closely monitoring risks in asset markets."

The board affirmed that the cash rate would be maintained at 10 basis points for as long as necessary and viewed a negative policy rate "as extraordinarily unlikely."

The board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range. 

"For this to occur, wages growth would need to be materially higher than it is currently. 

"This would require significant gains in employment and a return to a tight labour market. 

"The Board does not expect these conditions to be met until 2024 at the earliest."

<h2>Recently listed properties:</h2>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=24323]

[smartcode_project:default project_id=3783]

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7633]
</body></html>

The Reserve Bank Board reaffirmed the existing policy settings, including the cash rate remaining at 0.1 per cent

RBA notes "dampened demand" for Sydney and Melbourne apartments

<html><body>The Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has warned that "history suggests that shifts in population growth can have large effects on the housing market."

It was his bluntest warning yet about the dangers of the current house price boom across most of the country.

The RBA boss affirmed the financial regulators were "watching carefully" to see if home lending restrictions were necessary while giving a speech at the Australian Financial Review's Business Summit.

"There are many moving parts at present," he noted.

"Record low interest rates; a shift in preferences towards houses and away from apartments; strong demand for housing outside our largest cities; large government incentives for first-home buyers and home builders; and the slowest population growth in a century," he observed.

"Time will tell as to how these various factors ultimately balance out, but history suggests that shifts in population growth can have large effects on the housing market."

"At its recent meetings, the board has discussed developments in the housing market, including the rising housing prices across most of the country.

"Looser standards would increase medium-term risks and add to the upward pressure on prices, so would be of concern," he advised.

Lowe said he recognised that low interest rates were one of the factors contributing to higher housing prices "and that high and rising housing prices raise concerns for many people."

"I would like to reiterate that the RBA does not target housing prices, nor would it make sense to do so. 

"I recognise that low interest rates are one of the factors contributing to higher housing prices and that high and rising housing prices raise concerns for many people. 

"There are various tools, other than higher interest rates, to address these concerns, leaving monetary policy to maintain its strong focus on the recovery in the economy, jobs and wages," he noted.</body></html>

The RBA governor Philip Lowe noted "history suggests that shifts in population growth can have large effects on the housing market."

RBA boss Dr Philip Lowe warns on low population growth impact on housing

<html><body>
EXPERT INSIGHT

After years of repeatedly <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-yet-another-year-of-steady-rates-whats-the-point-of-the-rba-inflation-target-110574">missing its inflation target</a> through too timid monetary policy, in the past week the Reserve Bank has decided to get tough.

Not only did it hold its closely watched <a href="https://rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/">cash rate</a> target steady at 0.10% at Tuesday’s board meeting, it ramped up its efforts to defend its separate 0.10% target for the three-year government bond rate in the face of a mini-revolt by bond traders.

A few weeks back, some of the traders in Australia and elsewhere got it into their heads that big borrowing by governments would force up bond rates - a relationship that was once thought to be clear cut but hasn’t held for some time.

The traders sold government bonds issued by Australia and other nations, which in the case of the bond market, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/bonds/07/price_yield.asp">forces up the bond interest rate</a>.

Then other traders piled on, partly because economic outlooks are improving and they thought governments might soon be issuing fewer bonds, and partly because they thought other traders might agree with the traders.

That’s right: “thought other traders might agree with the traders”.

<h2>Beauty contests can make markets mad</h2>

In financial markets you don’t make money by correctly guessing what will happen, you make it by correctly guessing what other traders think will happen.

One of the founders of modern economics, John Maynard Keynes, described it as a beauty contest in which judges are rewarded not for picking the most beautiful face, but for picking the face <a href="https://www.zeninvestor.org/keynesian-beauty-contest/">other judges</a> will think is the most beautiful.

It’s like the rules in <a href="https://www.liveabout.com/family-feud-brief-overview-1396911">Family Feud</a>.

The yield on Australian Commonwealth 10-year bonds climbed from 0.98% at the start of the year to 1.11% a month later, to an extraordinary 1.87% a month after that - a near-doubling in a matter of weeks.

Even the yield on three-year bonds, which the Reserve Bank has pledged to keep at <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-the-reserve-bank-is-going-to-bat-for-australia-like-never-before-149311">0.10%</a> crept up to 0.13%.

Last Friday, the Reserve Bank fought back.

It bought extra bonds a day after completing its usual purchases on Thursday.

This Tuesday, in its statement after its monthly board meeting, it added nine words to its usual acknowledgement that “<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2021/mr-21-01">wage and price pressures remain subdued</a>”.

Those words were: “<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2021/mr-21-03">and are expected to remain so for some years</a>”.

And then it released a <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/mkt-operations/announcements/rba-purchases-of-government-securities-2021-03">separate statement</a> reiterating that when its A$100 billion program of buying $5 billion of government bonds each week expires in May it will launch another $100 billion program, taking the scheduled bond buying through to November.

Since the program began last November, the bank has bought $74 billion of bonds. Its message was that if traders thought it was within $26 billion of running out of ammunition, it had another $100 billion. It doubled <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-M8e1YYiQg">the size of its knife</a>.

The bank can’t afford to lose

Keeping control of rates is a fight the Reserve Bank has to win. When it announces a change in an interest rate, usually the <a href="https://rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/">cash rate</a>, it uses words along the lines of “<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2020/mr-20-06">the board decided to lower the cash rate</a>,” implying that it can.

The more accurate words it <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2001/mr-01-17">used to use</a> were “the bank will be operating in the money market this morning to reduce the cash rate,” an admission that it could only try to move the cash rate, by trading in financial instruments.

So effective have its pronouncements become that in recent years it hasn’t needed to do much trading to move the cash rate - it has just announced the move knowing that traders will fall into line because it could buy or sell financial instruments if it wanted to.

If it loses a battle with traders over rates, what it says will have much less force.

It has the resources it needs to win

The bank will win whatever battle it chooses to fight because it has unlimited resources. Unlike traders, it can <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/unconventional-monetary-policy">create</a> as many Australian dollars as it needs in order to buy as many bonds as it needs.

So far it has chosen to defend its ground on the cash rate and the three-year bond rate. It wants both at 0.1%.

It said on Tuesday it would “not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3% target range”.

It added that for that to occur, wage growth will have to be “materially higher”, which would require significant gains in employment and a return to a tight labour market.

And then the killer sentence, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2021/mr-21-03">the last</a>, aimed directly at the traders: “The Board does not expect these conditions to be met until 2024 at the earliest.”

Although it released the statement one day before Wednesday’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/gdp-is-v-shaped-but-not-yet-good-these-three-graphs-tell-the-story-156372">national accounts</a> that showed the economic recovery continuing, it would have been aware of what they were likely to show.

It remains resolute.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156410/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" t1tcsswdv="" width="1">

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414">UNSW</a>

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-in-the-battle-over-interest-rates-itd-be-unwise-to-bet-against-the-rba-156410">original article</a>.
</body></html>

In the battle over interest rates, it'd be unwise to bet against the RBA: Richard Holden

<html><body>
Amid ongoing uncertainty in the global markets due to COVID-19 it remains low rates as usual for the RBA, who kept the official cash rate at 0.10 percent for another month.

Their recently released chart pack, which details figures from the world economy to Australia's financial figures, yielded interesting information about the Australian property situation

Private residential building approvals has continued to soar, up once again in February as seen below.

<img alt="" height="339" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/rba_chart_1.jpg" width="407">

This trend continues to be driven by growth in the detached housing sector which can be attributed to the HomeBuilder grant among other government initiatives

<img alt="" height="357" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/rba_chart_2.jpg" width="396">

There continues to be a gap between household consumption and disposable income.

A household's disposable income hadn't been higher than its consumption since 2014.

This is in sharp contrast to the current Covid-19 effected situation.

Housing price growth can be seen to have come out of a dip with APM recording the smallest falls as seen below. 

<img alt="" height="313" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/rba_chart_3.jpg" width="401">

Residex and CoreLogic data showed that for the year to February home price growth near zeroed out.

Housing loan commitments continue to soar to new record highs, levels well beyond the 2015 and 2017 highs.

<img alt="" height="353" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/rba_chart_4.jpg" width="393">

This trend is similarly driven by government initiatives with owner-occupiers rocking this trend up to $20 billion in commitments.

Investor's have also been investing further although clearly not to a similar level as many lack incentive in this current low supply, high demand market.
</body></html>

Data showed that for the year to February home price growth near zeroed out, however a growth spike seems to be on the horizon

Rba

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

The latest real estate & off the plan properties & news, delivered to your inbox.

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

The latest real estate & off the plan properties & news, delivered to your inbox.

Rba

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

The latest real estate & off the plan properties & news, delivered to your inbox.

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

The latest real estate & off the plan properties & news, delivered to your inbox.