One of North Sydney's best-known commercial buildings could become hundreds of new homes, with insurance giant Zurich Australia lodging a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) to transform 5 Blue Street into a mixed-use residential development above North Sydney Station.

Rather than demolishing the existing building and starting again, Zurich is proposing an adaptive reuse project that would convert the landmark office building into a 15-level residential development delivering 62 apartments, 86 affordable co-living dwellings, activated retail and significant upgrades to the Blue Street Plaza.

The proposal reflects a growing trend of commercial property owners repositioning ageing office assets into residential housing as Sydney grapples with housing supply shortages and changing workplace demand.

<img alt="Zurich" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0bba7d12-06dc-4375-aad7-238c94b21ac5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%2010.42.05%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=NJl5oLAEBDGuPmY3RnyliKODjMc8lvRh" />

Located directly above North Sydney Metro and train station, the 3,051 sqm site occupies one of the most strategically positioned parcels of land on Sydney's Lower North Shore.

Designed by fjcstudio, the proposal seeks to retain and adapt much of the existing structure while creating a contemporary residential address that better connects with the public domain surrounding North Sydney Station.

The application proposes two basement levels, ground floor retail, affordable co-living accommodation across the podium levels, and apartments above, while preserving and enhancing the publicly accessible Blue Street Plaza.

Rather than pursuing maximum apartment numbers, Zurich has opted for a housing mix heavily weighted towards larger owner-occupier residences.

The proposal includes 62 build-to-sell apartments comprising 12 one-bedroom, 19 two-bedroom, 29 three-bedroom apartments and two premium penthouses. It also incorporates 86 affordable co-living dwellings, which would be managed in perpetuity by a Community Housing Provider.

That balance between traditional apartments and affordable housing reflects the NSW Government's push to increase housing diversity around major transport infrastructure.

The proposal has been lodged concurrently with a rezoning application, with Zurich arguing the site is ideally positioned to support additional housing given its immediate proximity to public transport, employment and services.

"The proposal aims to respond to the housing challenges facing Sydney through the delivery of diverse housing types in a highly accessible location," the design report by fjcstudio states. It also seeks to improve pedestrian amenity through upgrades to Blue Street Plaza while creating a high-performing residential building that responds to the surrounding context.

<img alt="Zurich" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36082e15-c636-4481-bb68-5a5f6443fe39" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%2010.41.36%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=5P6VD.fvmqjQfIG3TWWMRXxQWiQBjeFB" />

Rather than replacing the commercial building, fjcstudio has developed a design that works with the existing structural framework above the rail corridor, an approach that significantly reduces demolition while allowing the site to be repositioned as a mixed-use residential precinct.

The existing structural constraints have informed much of the building's design, including its relationship with Blue Street and surrounding public spaces.

The building has been designed as a slender tower rising above a clearly defined podium, with vertically expressed façades intended to reduce the perceived bulk while reinforcing North Sydney's emerging skyline.

According to fjcstudio, the architectural language responds directly to the surrounding commercial towers while maintaining a finer grain expression more closely aligned with the neighbouring Lavender Bay streetscape.

The tower incorporates articulated façade elements, landscaped podium edges and recessed upper levels to soften its appearance and improve pedestrian amenity below.

A significant component of the proposal is the revitalisation of Blue Street Plaza.

The existing public space has long served as one of the primary pedestrian connections between North Sydney Station, Greenwood Plaza and Blue Street, yet its role is expected to become even more important following the opening of Sydney Metro.

Zurich's proposal seeks to strengthen that role by improving landscaping, introducing new retail frontages, enhancing pedestrian permeability and creating more active edges throughout the day and evening.

Ground floor retail would wrap the plaza, while separate residential and co-living entries have been designed to improve wayfinding without reducing street activation.

Landscape design has been integrated throughout the podium and public realm, softening what is currently one of the most heavily urbanised parts of North Sydney.

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fjcstudio has carefully oriented apartments towards Sydney Harbour and the CBD while using privacy blades and articulated façades to minimise overlooking between neighbouring buildings.

Large framed openings along the western elevation maximise harbour outlooks, while the eastern apartments have been angled towards the south-east to improve privacy from neighbouring development.

The project forms part of the continuing transformation of North Sydney from a predominantly commercial CBD into a genuine mixed-use city centre.

Since the completion of Victoria Cross Metro Station, developers have increasingly shifted their attention towards residential projects capable of leveraging the area's unparalleled transport connectivity.

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FiveX recently lodged plans for a 61-storey, 490-apartment tower that would become one of the tallest residential buildings in North Sydney if approved.

Aqualand continues to expand its Lower North Shore presence following the completion of AURA on Walker Street and its recent St Leonards and Roseville proposals.

Developers are also progressing projects throughout Walker Street, Miller Street and the Victoria Cross precinct as demand for well-located owner-occupier apartments continues to strengthen.

Joel Robinson

First look: Zurich targets North Sydney office conversion with 148-unit proposal above Metro station

Busy developer Aqualand Prestige has formally taken the next step in its expansion across Sydney's Lower North Shore, lodging a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) for its long-held Archer Street site in Chatswood.

The application covers <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/51-55-archer-street-chatswood-nsw-2067">51-55 Archer Street</a>, a 1,767 sqm amalgamated site on the eastern edge of the Chatswood CBD, where the developer is seeking approval for a 45-level mixed-use tower delivering 114 apartments, including a significant affordable housing component, alongside retail, commercial space and six basement levels of parking.

The SSDA marks the latest milestone for a project Aqualand has been quietly progressing over the past two years. The developer first secured the site for its Aqualand Prestige platform before undertaking an alternative design excellence process with PTW Architects, ultimately avoiding a formal design competition through the Housing Delivery Authority pathway.

The proposal has evolved considerably from Aqualand's original concept. The revised scheme has been designed around larger owner-occupier product, with an unusually high proportion of three and four-bedroom apartments, targeting the more affluent buyer profile, and downsizer, emerging across the North Shore.

<img alt="Archer St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0171204c-5811-41b5-9b09-2335d1b7c3d0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-22%20at%208.52.48%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=6YTuxfq.puZo7k2wbfgemcO5K3QfXYGQ" />

The 114-apartment mix comprises six studios, 27 one-bedroom apartments, 18 two-bedroom apartments, 50 three-bedroom residences and 13 four-bedroom homes. A quarter of the building will be dedicated to affordable housing, well above the mandated 15 per cent&nbsp;

PTW has structured the building vertically, with affordable housing across levels one to six, premium apartments through levels seven to 31, duplex skyhomes on klevels 32 to 43, a penthouse on level 44, and a rooftop plant level above. Six basement levels will provide resident parking and servicing.

The tower is proposed to reach approximately 154 metres, placing it among a growing collection of residential high-rises transforming Chatswood's skyline.

Rather than competing purely on height, PTW says the design has been driven by creating a slimmer tower capable of delivering significantly larger apartments.

"The primary objective of this project was to create a distinctive building that stands out from the recently approved or built structures in the Chatswood area," the design report states, noting the structural efficiency allows greater investment into apartment quality and resident amenity.

Residents would have access to more than 450 sqm of communal open space including landscaped gardens, swimming pool, rooftop entertaining areas, fitness spaces, community gardens, children's play areas and barbecue facilities.

A major focus of the design has been the public domain.

The ground plane has been opened up through landscaped terraces inspired by Willoughby's sandstone ridges, with native planting, public seating, artwork, retail activation and a series of gathering spaces intended to soften what has traditionally been a hard commercial streetscape.

The landscape strategy references Blue Gum forests once common throughout the area, while incorporating Indigenous storytelling, public art and lighting installations to strengthen the connection to Country.

Chatswood has been one of Sydney's busiest apartment markets over the past 12 months, with a steady pipeline of both new project launches and fresh development applications.

Hyecorp recently launched Celine, a 122-apartment development just along Archer Street, while Changfa and Huirong Group are progressing The Anderson, an 84-apartment project on Anderson Street.

Develotek recently secured approval for a 101-apartment tower on Pacific Highway, while Tian An LFD received the green light for Hammond Greens, its apartment development on the edge of the Chatswood Bowling Club.

Commercial property developer FiveX is also making its move into the residential market. Last month it lodged plans for a 61-storey tower with 490 apartments, which, if approved, would become one of the tallest residential buildings in Chatswood.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-fivex-targets-chatswood-skyline-with-61-storey-tower-after-north-sydney-plans">First look: FiveX targets Chatswood skyline with 61-storey tower after North Sydney plans</a>

Aqualand is also expanding its development pipeline following the launch of its luxury residential brand, Aqualand Prestige. The developer has delivered a string of high-end apartment projects across Sydney's affluent suburbs over the past decade, most recently AURA by Aqualand on Walker Street in North Sydney.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=292863]

It has since quietly assembled its next wave of projects.

Earlier this year Aqualand launched Boronia in Roseville, a boutique 111-apartment development on Larkin Street. The project is one of the first significant apartment developments to launch in the suburb ahead of what is expected to become one of Sydney's most active new housing precincts under the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing reforms, which allow greater density around train stations.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152095 project_image_fid=373685]

The developer has also lodged plans for a two-tower, 413-apartment development on Herbert Street in nearby St Leonards, further strengthening its presence across the Lower North Shore.

Beyond that, Aqualand remains behind the final stage of Barangaroo, where plans will deliver a five-hectare mixed-use precinct comprising new homes, retail, hospitality and community facilities, alongside a new Metro entrance and more than two hectares of public open space, completing the Barangaroo precinct.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/central-barangaroo-development-takes-big-step-with-concept-proposal-approval">Central Barangaroo development takes big step with concept proposal approval</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-aqualand-joins-st-leonards-apartment-party">First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party</a> 
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First look: Aqualand pushes ahead with Chatswood apartment tower as SSDA lodged for Archer Street

Mass timber is becoming an increasingly popular construction material in apartment developments, but Adelaide developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/otello">Otello</a> is taking the approach a step further.

At its new <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flowe-bowden-18-gibson-street-bowden-sa-5007">Flowe Bowden</a> development, the exposed cross-laminated timber (CLT) structure isn't just about reducing the building's environmental footprint. It also forms the foundation of a broader wellness strategy, influencing everything from indoor air quality and natural materials to the way residents move through and experience the building.

The 115-apartment mixed-use development, designed by Melbourne-based architecture practice Fieldwork, will occupy a prominent island site opposite Bowden Village Reserve, combining one, two and three-bedroom apartments with retail and a dedicated wellness destination.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375528]

Wellness isn't confined to a gym or shared resident facility at Flowe. Instead, Fieldwork embedded the concept into the building itself.

The development has been split into two residential wings connected by a naturally ventilated central breezeway, replacing traditional enclosed corridors with open-air walkways that improve natural light, encourage cross ventilation and create more opportunities for neighbourly interaction.

"Rather than treating wellness as something that only happens on the ground floor, our response integrates it throughout the building, which led us to ask what it really means to design a healthy building," Fieldwork Director Quino Holland said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375531]

The building's architecture also reflects Bowden's industrial heritage. The lower podium references the area's historic brick and sandstone buildings, while the upper levels transition to exposed CLT, allowing the timber structure to become a defining feature throughout the apartments and shared spaces.

The use of mass timber sits alongside a range of sustainability initiatives, including a fully electric, gas-free design, rooftop solar and a targeted 5 Star Green Star rating.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375524]

Inside the residences, the focus remains on natural, durable materials. Blackbutt engineered timber flooring, exposed CLT ceilings, porcelain surfaces and warm timber joinery create a calming interior palette, while low-VOC finishes and responsibly sourced materials have been selected to improve indoor air quality.

Kitchens have been designed as the centrepiece of each apartment, featuring porcelain island benchtops, timber-look cabinetry and brushed steel tapware, with layouts that maximise natural light and ventilation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152022 project_image_fid=375530]

The more traditional interpretation of wellness comes in the form of Level Eleven, a two-storey wellness club spanning the ground floor, mezzanine and first floor.

The facility will include a gym, yoga and reformer Pilates studios, Finnish and infrared saunas, magnesium hot and cold plunge pools, and dedicated recovery spaces. Unlike many residential wellness facilities, Level Eleven will also operate commercially, allowing the broader Bowden community to access the venue while giving residents exclusive membership benefits.

The ground floor has also been designed around everyday living. A café overlooking Bowden Village Reserve will activate the street frontage, while a bike workshop with tool storage, co-working space and dog wash has been incorporated to support daily routines and encourage interaction between residents.

"Flowe brings together my two biggest passions, creating places and creating healthier lives," Otello founder Daniel Harris said.

"We wanted to create something Adelaide hasn't seen before, a genuinely healthy building, where the way you live is lifted without even trying."

Flowe is positioned directly opposite Bowden Village Reserve and within walking distance of Bowden Railway Station and the Adelaide Entertainment Centre, placing future residents just minutes from the Adelaide CBD while remaining connected to one of the city's most established urban renewal precincts.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152022]

Otello launches wellness-focused Flowe Bowden with Adelaide-first mass timber apartment design

Not all apartment amenities are immediately visible.

Swimming pools, gyms, rooftop terraces and residents' lounges have long featured on buyers' wishlists, but as the way Australians live has changed, so too have the features that make apartment living more convenient.

Increasingly, buyers are placing value on the practical aspects of day-to-day life. Fast internet, EV charging, secure bike storage, flexible workspaces and parcel management are becoming just as relevant as lifestyle amenities, reflecting changing habits and expectations.

Online shopping has been one of the biggest drivers of that shift.

Australians spent a record $82.6 billion shopping online in 2025, with almost one in every four retail dollars now spent digitally, making parcel deliveries a routine part of everyday life rather than an occasional convenience.

For apartment residents, however, receiving those deliveries isn't always straightforward.

Without someone home to accept a parcel, deliveries can be redirected to a nearby Post Office, left in building foyers or common areas, or require building management to temporarily store packages. As apartment living continues to grow across Australia's cities, parcel management has become an increasingly important consideration for both residents and developers.

Australia Post's Parcel Locker network is one response to that shift.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KPZ9j5FRdsQ?si=Qztc1dNP3ZvEIUhb" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

Rather than relying on home delivery, eligible parcels can be directed to a nominated Parcel Locker, where they're securely stored until collected. Once a parcel arrives, residents receive a notification through the AusPost app or SMS and can retrieve it using a one-time code or QR code at a time that suits them.

The network has expanded to more than 1,500 locations nationwide, with Parcel Lockers positioned at Post Offices, shopping centres, supermarkets, transport hubs and, increasingly, within or alongside residential developments.

That growing presence reflects a broader change in how apartment buildings are being planned.

Developers are increasingly considering the operational side of apartment living alongside traditional lifestyle amenities. Just as secure mailrooms, bicycle storage and EV charging have become more common inclusions, parcel management is emerging as another feature that supports everyday convenience.

It also helps preserve the arrival experience within a building. Carefully designed lobbies and communal spaces can quickly become cluttered when deliveries accumulate, while secure parcel solutions reduce the likelihood of missed deliveries or parcels being left unattended.

For buyers comparing apartments, these everyday details are becoming part of the decision-making process.

Location, floorplans and finishes remain fundamental, but the features that simplify daily life are carrying greater weight than they once did. As online shopping continues to shape consumer behaviour, secure parcel delivery is increasingly becoming another amenity worth looking for.

Parcel delivery is joining the apartment amenity checklist

Inca Property Group has lodged a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) for Dawn, a 53-apartment oceanfront development overlooking Mona Vale Beach.

The proposal, at 35-39 Darley Street East, would replace an existing 18-apartment strata building with a new owner-occupier-focused development comprising 53 two and three-bedroom apartments, including nine affordable built-to-rent residences delivered under the State's infill affordable housing scheme.

Positioned on a 2,679 sqm elevated site around 280 metres from Mona Vale Beach, the development has been designed to maximise panoramic ocean views while responding to the site's sloping topography.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/inca-property-group">Inca Property Group</a> Managing Director Josh Thompson said the State Significant pathway provided greater certainty for projects of this scale.

"This State Significant pathway gives the team real certainty to progress <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/dawn-35-39-darley-street-east-mona-vale-nsw-2103">Dawn</a> through to completion," Thompson said.

"It allows us to acquire a one-off site, design it carefully and deliver the right offering for the suburb, assessed by the NSW Government's planning department."

The project is one of the first developments in the area to be assessed under the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing policy, with the site sitting on the edge of the policy's designated inner area.

The proposal includes three basement levels providing 124 car spaces, alongside a range of resident amenities including a swimming pool, gym, sauna, wellness facilities and private plunge pools for selected ground-floor and penthouse apartments.

<img alt="Dawn" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fc1a1daf-0ce4-4f12-9076-b1fa553c7a91" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-21%20at%208.42.11%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=4GZ9h.gpNkTljbxyAET8Jfhv51XUamDm" />

Thompson said Dawn had been designed specifically for owner-occupiers and downsizers, a buyer profile that has driven demand across Inca's recent Upper North Shore developments.

"The majority of buyers in our recent North Shore projects have been downsizers, and we are learning exactly what this market is looking for. Beyond the location itself, we have included resort-style amenities to deliver a genuine lifestyle offering," Thompson said.

Located within walking distance of Mona Vale Beach, the town centre, Mona Vale Golf Club and the Royal Motor Yacht Club, Dawn represents Inca's first Northern Beaches project following the sell-out of Tara on Park in Waitara and Ellis Residences, currently under construction in St Ives.

Construction will be undertaken by Inca's in-house construction arm, GOP Constructions.

Dawn is the latest major apartment proposal for Mona Vale, with the suburb emerging as one of the key beneficiaries of the NSW Government's new Low and Mid-Rise Housing policy.

New developer One Living, led by industry veteran Joseph Scuderi, recently secured a site on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, where it is planning around 140 apartments.

IPM is also planning its third project in Mona Vale, significantly increasing the scale of its previous developments with an 82-apartment proposal at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/159-167-darley-street-west-mona-vale-nsw-2103">159-167 Darley Street West</a>, opposite Bayview Golf Course and less than 800 metres from Mona Vale town centre.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/one-living-enters-sydneys-new-apartment-market-with-northern-beaches-site-acquisition">One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition</a>

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-ipm-plans-third-mona-vale-project">First look: IPM plans third Mona Vale project</a>

First look: Inca eyes Mona Vale with State Significant DA for Dawn apartments

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Perth’s median house price grew by 18% over the three years to December 2014, underpinned by record net overseas and interstate migration inflows, according to QBE's latest housing report. But the good times aren't set to last, the report predicts. 
This resulted in tight vacancy rates and significant rental growth. Demand was driven by strong economic conditions brought on by booming mining investment and significantly improved affordability as interest rates were lowered.
But mining investment is now retreating rapidly and economic conditions have weakened considerably.
New engineering construction has tapered off as projects adding additional mining capacity are progressively completed.
Diminished employment opportunity has led to a substantial fall in net migration. In 2014/15, net overseas migration fell below 15,000 persons for the first time since 2004.
Interstate migration has also become a net outflow for the first time since 2003. State unemployment has increased above 6% in the first half of 2016; above the national level of 5.7%.
While mining output has increased, the production phase is less labour intensive than the investment phase. Western Australia’s unemployment rate is likely to continue to rise and remain elevated in the medium term, QBE predict. Net migration inflows are likely to remain soft for now.
After peaking in December 2014, Perth’s median house price fell by 2% in the six months to June 2015, and this has accelerated to a decline of 5.6% in 2015/16. The decline was greatest in the inner Perth suburbs (–7.2%) while both Middle and Outer ring suburbs fell 5.2% in 2015/16.
The higher priced inner suburbs are likely to be feeling the largest impact from the weakness in the higher income resource sector jobs.
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Weakening owner occupier demand has seen the number of loans to both first home buyers and upgraders/ downsizers decline by 15% and 10% respectively in 2015/16. The decline in investor demand has been more dramatic, with the value of loans to investors falling by 32% in 2015/16.
Rising new dwelling building approvals through the upturn in prices is being reflected in new dwelling completions continuing to rise in 2016.
This contrasts with a sharp decline in the rate of population growth and consequently underlying demand. The Western Australian market has moved into oversupply, which is reflected in vacancy rates of close to 5%; far above the balanced market rate of 3%, say QBE.
With underlying demand likely to continue to weaken, and further dwellings under construction working their way to completion, there is little to place upward pressure on rents and prices through to 2018/19.
Overall, the Perth market is expected to weaken across both house and unit markets. The impact of a rising stock surplus and a slowing state economy is forecast to result in a further decline in Perth’s median house price of 3% to June 2018.
Low interest rates should mitigate a deeper fall in the median house price, which is expected to stabilise in 2018/19, and potentially show a minimal rise, with mining investment bottoming out and interest rates forecast to be cut further in 2018. The forecast median house price of $540,000 at June 2019 is forecast to be 10% below its December 2014 peak.
However, Perth’s median house price in real terms is forecast to be 24% below its peak in March 2007 set during the first mining boom through the middle of the decade.
<img src="/images/2016/10/14/Chart%2028.jpg" alt="">
The unit market has seen rising completions across Perth over the last three years. However, units remain just a third of all new dwelling approvals; well below the other capitals of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.
Much of the strong migration into Perth has been temporary in nature with the unit market consequently expected to see a greater fall in rents and higher vacancy rates. Temporary residents tend to favour the unit market over the house market given the short term nature of their stay.
Downward rent and price pressures are therefore forecast to be greater in the unit market than the house market. Median unit rents have weakened significantly and Perth’s median unit price has begun to decline, falling by 6.5% in the year to June 2016 to $403,100. Further declines totalling 6% are forecast in 2016/17 and 2017/18, before unit prices bottom out over 2018/19 to be $380,000 at June 2019.
Regional centres in Western Australia have borne the brunt of the impact of the downturn in resource sector investment.
These towns typically have a narrow industry profile and are susceptible to local economic events. Median house prices climbed rapidly through the early boom period as the influx of mining investment led to job creation, population growth and demand for housing.
As the mining investment wound down, median house prices fell sharply while unemployment rates grew rapidly and population left.
• Karratha LGA in the Pilbara region saw earlier price growth as a result of the mid 2000s boom in mining investment, with the median house price already elevated after the GFC in 2009. The median house prices grew 21% to peak at $850,000 from their 2009 level. Since the peak, the median house price has fallen 64% to $304,000 in June quarter 2016. The unemployment rate has risen from 1.8% to 2.3% over the three years to March 2016.
• Port Hedland LGA saw its median house prices rising by 127% between June 2007 and March 2013, reaching a peak of $1.1 million. However, the median house price has since collapsed by 72% to $305,000 at June 2016, while the unemployment rate has risen from 3.3% to 5.0% in the three years to March 2016. It is likely that the unemployment rate in these centres is relatively low as those that are not employed are likely to have left.
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Sales volumes in Port Hedland and Karratha in 2015/16 are also well down on previous levels. The lower sales volumes suggests that many owners are retaining their property rather than accepting a loss on sale.
Those that are sold are more likely to be forced sales, which would be helping to drive the median sale price down.
Movements in population and demand have had a big impact on prices in the smaller regional centres, in contrast with Perth, where the median house price has only declined by 4% from its peak.
Perth also experienced a more moderate cycle in prices in the most recent boom in mining investment, with the median house price rising by 32% between December 2008 and September 2014. The larger size of the residential market and more diversified economic base of Perth has helped to support prices.
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Perth house prices heading towards 24% decline from boomtime peak: QBE Housing Outlook

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The median house price in Adelaide has shown steady growth since 2012/13 as lower interest rates and prices at a relatively low base resulted in a period of improved affordability, according to QBE's latest housing report.
Employment drivers at the time, in the form of public infrastructure projects, also spurred migration inflows propping up underlying demand. The median house prices at June 2016 was $461,000, up 3.2% on a year earlier.
Inner Adelaide median house prices have grown 26.7% on a year earlier. However, the inner region covers a small sample area and is a tightly held market with low transactional activity increasing volatility in the median price measurement. The Middle and Outer ring medians have shown much more moderate growth at 2.7% and 2.1% respectively.
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The South Australian economy is forecast to face some significant economic headwinds with the manufacturing sector suffering from the relatively high Australian dollar compared to lower cost competitors overseas. Several public engineering construction projects have also been completed such as the Noarlunga Line Electrification, the South Road Superway and the Southern Expressway Duplication.
With the completion of these projects, public investment will decline significantly with few projects to fill the void in employment growth. Additionally, the scheduled closure of the Holden manufacturing plant in Elizabeth in 2017 is expected to further drag on the economy.
Some job creation should come from increased ship and submarine building, but with few other large employment drivers, the state economy is expected to struggle for growth.
Dwelling construction activity has also peaked in 2015/16 as price growth and low borrowing costs has driven commencements. Underlying demand has not kept pace and an excess in dwellings is forecast to have emerged in Adelaide in 2015/16.
This surplus is expected to accelerate over the forecast period as underlying demand remains weak brought on by softening economic conditions. This is expected to put pressure on vacancy rates, already climbing above the balanced rate in June 2016 at 3.3%.
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As rental yields fall and competition increases for tenants, investor demand is expected to contract leading to limited house price growth.
The low interest rate environment with potential cuts over the next year, is expected to result in affordability improving. The ratio of mortgage repayments on a median priced house is forecast to be around 21%, which is the lower end of its range over the past 20 years.
This will prevent major falls in house prices and median house price growth of 0.9% is expected in 2017/18, before the rising surplus and slowing economic activity result in a 2.2% decline in prices in 2017/18.
A total decline of 1.3% is expected for median house prices over the forecast period, taking the median house price to $455,000 at June 2019.
Compared with the east coast capital cities, Adelaide does not experience the same level of new unit or apartment development activity and the unit market is consequently forecast to move in line with the forecast for house prices. However, much like the other state capitals, investor purchasers are more prevalent in the unit market.
Tighter restrictions on investor lending is seeing a decline in investor demand and as a result median unit prices are forecast to remain relatively flat over the three years to 2019, declining an aggregate 0.6% over this period to $340,000 at June 2019.
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Adelaide economy to struggle but major house price falls will be prevented: QBE Housing Outlook

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Darwin has the highest residential rental vacancy rates with Perth following closely behind, according to QBE’s latest housing report.
The vacancy rate is calculated as the number of unoccupied rental dwellings as a percentage of the total rental stock and is sourced from a survey of state Real Estate Institute members.
The vacancy rate in each city is a measure of the balance of rental demand and rental supply. A vacancy rate of 3% in a market is considered balanced, where rents on average will rise broadly in line with inflation.
• In Sydney, since 2006 there has been a considerable deficiency of residential dwelling stock after an extended period of low new dwelling construction. Given the extent of the dwelling shortage, vacancy rates have remained tight at 1.8% in June quarter 2016, and the return to a balanced rental vacancy rate is unlikely to occur until beyond 2018/19.
• In Melbourne, vacancy rates were below the balanced market level of 3% in 2013/14 and 2014/15. However, with record dwelling completions vacancy levels are now closer to balance at 2.7% in June quarter 2016. With dwelling completions on track to increase further in 2016/17, vacancy rates in Melbourne are expected to move above 3% over the year.
• Brisbane vacancy rates increased marginally to 2.8% at June 2016; still close to the balanced market rate. In Adelaide, vacancy rates have risen to 3.3% in the same period. Vacancy rates in both cities are anticipated to continue to trend upwards. In Brisbane, the forecast is due to upcoming dwelling completions outpacing demand, and in Adelaide the excess of dwelling stock may rise further due to weak population growth.
• Perth (6.0%) and Darwin (6.4%) recorded the highest vacancy rates among all capital cities at June 2016. Rising new dwelling completions, rapidly slowing net overseas migration inflows and falling interstate migration levels, as a result of the collapse in mining investment are causing an exit from rental properties. As a result, the pace of new rental tenants coming to the market is failing to keep up with the pace of new additions to the rental stock.
• In Hobart, vacancy rates remain at the upper end of the 2–3% band. Elevated dwelling completions relative to population growth are keeping the market around balance.
• In the Australian Capital Territory, declines in rents appear to be attracting new tenants with its vacancy rate falling to 2.5% in June 2016.
With both states estimated to experience a rising dwelling surplus, the downward trend in vacancy rates is not expected to continue.
Rental growth, as calculated from the rental component of the Consumer Price Index, was strong in the latter half of the 2000s after a period of underperformance in the first half of the decade. In recent years, rental growth has generally been moderate, despite vacancy rates remaining tight in all capital cities up to 2013. This suggests there may be some rental affordability constraints preventing stronger rises.
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• With a deficiency of dwellings in place and low vacancy rates, New South Wales had the highest level of rental growth of 2.2% in 2015/16. In Hobart, a lower vacancy rate of 2.8% assisted the second highest level of rental growth of 2% in 2015/16. Melbourne and Adelaide, with rental growth of 1.4% and 1% respectively, experienced minimal rental growth as their respective vacancy rates rose above the balanced market rate over the year.
• Brisbane and Canberra rents stayed fairly static in 2015/16, despite a low vacancy rate in Canberra. Canberra recorded a 0.5% decline in rents, which is an improvement on its 2.7% decline in 2014/15.
• In Darwin and Perth, rents declined by 6.4% and 5.2% respectively in 2015/16.This reflects the high level of vacancy rates in each capital city. In both states, while new dwelling supply continues to rise, falling resource investment spending is leading to significant reductions in migration and subsequent weaker tenant demand.
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Darwin has the highest vacancy rates while NSW records highest rental growth: QBE Housing Outlook

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Since bottoming out in 2011 and 2012 in all states, upgrader demand has strengthened over the last four years and continues to rise, according to QBE's latest housing report.
Upgraders and downsizers have historically represented the largest component of residential demand, being 43% of total residential lending activity in the past 15 years.
This represents two to three times the size of the first home buyer market.
In the year to June 2016, growth in the number of loans to upgraders was 7.1% nationally.
However, upgrader demand varies by state.
Victoria, New South Wales, South Australia, Australian Capital Territory, Queensland and Tasmania saw growth in loans to upgraders during 2015/16.
In contrast, in Western Australia and the Northern Territory the number of loans to upgraders declined in 2015/16, following on from declines in the previous year. Similarly, upgrader loans declined in Tasmania in 2015/16, although this was after growth in 2014/15.
In Western Australia, there was a less significant decline in loans in June quarter 2016, suggesting that the pace of decline is slowing and the market will soon bottom out, whereas in the Northern Territory the number of loans to upgraders experienced a greater annual decline in June quarter 2016.
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The ABS provides data on residential investment in terms of the value of total loans rather than the number of loans. As a result, changes in the value of loans over time reflect a change in values for property and purchaser volumes.
All states reported double digit decreases in lending for residential investment in 2015/16 after strong annual rises up to the peak in 2014/15. Year on year declines were still being recorded in June quarter 2016.
Investment lending in Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania recorded the smallest annual decline in investment loans in 2015/16.
The Northern Territory and South Australia recorded the highest decline in lending for residential investment during 2015/16.
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Upgraders dominating residential lending activity: QBE Housing Outlook

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The expiry of Tasmania's first home buyer incentives for purchasers of established dwellings in 2014 saw first home buyer demand decline, according to QBE’s latest housing report.
First home buyer demand in the state has since bottomed out and is now in a recovery phase, the report said.
Loans to first home buyers increased by an annual 6% in 2015/16 and the rising trend has been accelerating, with loans to first home buyers in June quarter 2016 being 24% higher than the same period a year earlier.
It is likely that some of this demand stems from increased interstate migration. In contrast, purchase activity by upgraders and downsizers has been easing, with loans to non–first home buyers having fallen by 4% in 2015/16.
Demand from investors has also been decreasing, with the total value of loans to investors having fallen by an annual 13% in 2015/16. As with the other states, tightened lending policy by the banks is containing investor demand, although the decline in 2015/16 has been lower than the national decline.
Rental growth has been largely flat and vacancy rates are close to balance at just under 3% through 2015/16.
House prices in Hobart were flat in 2014/15, but picked up in 2015/16, with the median house price increasing by 5.2%. Tasmania’s net interstate migration outflow has been steadily declining since peaking in 2011/12, and interstate migration is on track to record a net inflow in 2015/16.
Part of the driver of this recovery is likely to be increased “tree changers” downsizing from the more expensive mainland capitals, while there are also likely to be many returnees from the mining states who contributed to the higher net interstate migration outflows of recent years.
House price growth has been unevenly spread across the Local Government Areas of Hobart. Median house price growth has been particularly strong in Hobart (10.1%), Clarence (8.4%) and Kingborough (6.9%). Glenorchy (1.1%) and Brighton (2.8%) saw more moderate house price growth while Sorell (–3.3%) experienced a decline in its median house price. The overall Greater Hobart median grew 5.2% over 2015/16.
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The Tasmanian economy has been weak in recent years. A high Australian dollar and slow population growth have added to general economic weakness. However, improved household spending, non–residential building activity and improving exports suggest a stronger economic recovery.
The weakening Australian dollar should support growth in tourism while the agricultural and mining industries should also benefit. The state unemployment rate fell from 7.8% at March 2014 to 6.6% at March 2016. Greater Hobart has a lower unemployment rate than the rest of the state, having fallen from 6.7% to 6.1% over the same period.
Greater Hobart has also been the main destination for migrants from overseas, interstate and the rest of Tasmania, with its population rising by 0.8% in 2014/15 while the population of the rest of Tasmania was flat.
On the supply side, completions at the state level have continued to rise while underlying demand has been slow. This has seen Tasmania’s dwelling surplus climb from 4,800 dwellings to an estimated 5,300 dwellings at June 2016. Given the disparity between population growth, it is likely that the oversupply is greater in regional Tasmania.
Reflecting lower income levels and fewer drivers of employment, Hobart has the lowest median house price compared to the other state capitals. Its relative affordability compared to other capital cities is a significant driver of demand as interstate migrants seek a more affordable market.
The current low interest rate environment is expected to improve affordability and spur purchaser demand, the QBE report said. Poor affordability in Melbourne and Sydney is expected to fuel further migration to Tasmanian cities, a trend already evident with the net interstate inflow forecast to increase further to 1,000 persons in 2016/17 and 2017/18.
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Overall, the gradual recovery in the local economy and interstate migration is expected to underpin price growth, while the presence of an excess dwelling stock at the state level will likely limit price growth to more moderate levels. Hobart’s median house price is forecast to rise from $377,900 at June 2016 to $425,000 by June 2019, reflecting growth of around 4% per annum or a cumulative 12.5%.
With a significantly smaller unit market, and thus a smaller sample of sales volumes to measure the median, movement in the median unit price in Hobart can be much more volatile from quarter to quarter. Overall, however, median unit prices have been in a gradual decline since its peak median price of $420,000 in June 2011.
With falling investor demand, the unit market could experience the greatest impact as investor purchasers have traditionally been more prevalent buying units.
This softness is expected to continue to dampen demand, limiting median unit price growth to a forecast 1%–2% per annum through to 2018/19. This is forecast by QBE to push the median unit price to $315,000 at June 2019; a cumulative growth of 4.5% over the forecast period.
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Hobart first home buyers in recovery stage: QBE Housing Outlook

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First home buyer demands have remain unchanged compared to two years ago while investor demands have declined by 20 percent, according to QBE's latest housing outlook report.
This is illustrated in the change in moving annual turnover of residential loans to first home buyers, non–first home buyers (i.e. upgraders and downsizers, as illustrated in chart 4 which include all purchases made for owner occupation and where the buyer has previously owned another dwelling) and investors.
The chart represents trends for Australia, which masks some differences across the states, as outlined later in this report.
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First home buyer demand has been declining since the end of calendar 2014. In 2015/16 the number of first home buyer loans was 1.8% below the year prior. Loans to non–first home buyers rose by 7.1% in 2015/16, after recording an annual 0.9% rise in 2014/15.
Growth in loans to investors peaked in 2014 and has steadily slowed before recording a decline in 2015/16. Monthly loans to investors have been below the same month a year earlier since August 2015, which has corresponded with the timing of tightening bank lending policy toward investors. The total annual decline in the value of loans to investors in 2015/16 was 16.8%.
First home buyer demand is important because it creates demand for entry–level properties, facilitating broader demand by encouraging current occupiers to upgrade through the value chain. As a result, incentives have often been put in place to promote first home buyer demand during times of market weakness.
Table 3 shows existing state and federal government incentives offered to first home buyers. It refers to grants available specifically to first home buyers and not broader grants and incentives first home buyers can also access. Where stamp duty concessions are offered, the maximum concession is indicated. It should be noted there are some purchase price limits for grant eligibility which vary by state.
Over the past five years there have been progressive changes in first home buyer incentives across all states to favour purchasers of new homes over existing homes. The long–term impact will be a shift of first home buyer demand that would have otherwise been for established homes into the new home market, thereby adding to supply.
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The short–term impacts on the market as a result of the progressive removal of incentives for the purchase of established dwellings are:
• Future first home buyer demand was brought forward to take advantage of the grants before they expire, leaving a vacuum of first home buyers in the established market immediately afterwards.
• A delay in the next round of first home buyers who then have to accumulate a larger deposit to compensate for the lack of financial assistance. In periods where prices are rising, this delay could take longer as the deposit hurdle progressively increases.
With first home owner demand being fixed (i.e. households are first home buyers only once), incentives do not create or diminish demand but rather serve to shift existing demand through time. Once the impacts of the changes to incentives are worked through, first home buyer demand should return to long–term averages.
This is likely to be the case in the coming years with first home buyer incentives now being relatively stable.
Tasmania and South Australia removed the first home buyer incentives for existing dwellings in July 2014 and have accordingly shown higher first home buyer activity in 2015/16 as they progressively recover to long–term levels.
Victoria experienced 5.6% growth in first home buyer loans in 2015/16, with the 9.3% year–on–year growth in June quarter 2016 suggesting that first home buyer activity is strengthening.
In Queensland first home buyer loans have been stable in recent years with little to no change in the number of loans over 2014/15 and 2015/16.
New South Wales has been similarly flat, recording recent marginal declines in loans, but the average annual number of loans in New South Wales in the five years to 2015/16 is down 32% on the average over the six years to 2010/11.
Western Australia experienced a decline in first home buyer loans in 2015/16, caused by a deteriorating economy, and the fact that first home buyer demand had held up strongly between 2011/12 and 2014/15.
The Northern Territory removed the incentives for existing dwellings in January 2015 and accordingly first home buyer activity was significantly lower in 2015/16, although the pace of decline was beginning to slow by June quarter 2016.
The Australian Capital Territory has also shown declining numbers of loans to first home buyers after a peak in activity in 2014/15.
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data on loans to first home buyers are derived from returns submitted by financial institutions to APRA at the time of the loan approval.
A first home buyer is defined as “a borrower entering the home ownership market for the first time”. The definition includes all first home buyers obtaining a loan (and not just those eligible for grants) but excludes first home buyers who are investors as the data relates to loans for owner occupied properties.
There is some evidence to suggest that an increasing percentage of first home buyers, particularly in the higher priced cities of Sydney and Melbourne, are purchasing an investment property as their first home as a stepping stone into the market.
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