<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/jwland-development">JWLand</a>’s De Burgh, the final residential release within the Northbourne Village precinct in Lyneham, is nearing completion just as the Federal Government’s Home Guarantee Scheme prepares for its most significant expansion to date.&nbsp;

From October 2025, the scheme will allow first home buyers to enter the market with just a five per cent deposit and no lenders mortgage insurance (LMI), removing some of the most common barriers to ownership.

With <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/de-burgh-at-northbourne-village-40-de-burgh-street-lyneham-act-2602">De Burgh</a> on track for residents to move in by late spring 2025, the timing creates a strong opportunity for first home buyers seeking brand-new apartments in Canberra’s sought-after Inner North.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=139989 project_image_fid=212888]

The project delivers 350 residences across two buildings, with layouts ranging from compact studios through to one, two, and three-bedroom apartments.

JWLand has tailored the development for long-term liveability, integrating natural light, privacy and outdoor space into each home. Ground-floor residences feature private courtyards, while upper levels benefit from generous balconies.

Kitchens are fitted with Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, and all apartments include ducted reverse-cycle air conditioning with smartphone app control for lighting and climate.&nbsp;

Shared resident facilities include a rooftop garden, gym, lounge and parcel lockers, alongside landscaped green space within the precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=139989 project_image_fid=267376]

For buyers, the expanded Home Guarantee Scheme removes income caps and introduces unlimited places, making it more accessible than ever. With most De Burgh apartments priced under $1 million, they fall well within the updated eligibility thresholds.

The policy changes provide first home buyers with greater certainty and a smoother path to finance. Combined with the quality and location of De Burgh, the expanded scheme is expected to draw a new wave of buyers to Canberra’s Inner North.

Residents will benefit from the project’s central setting, just 600 metres from the light rail and three kilometres from Canberra’s CBD. The precinct is bordered by the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/lyneham-act-2602">Lyneham</a> wetlands and sits within easy reach of cafes, restaurants, schools and the ANU.

With completion scheduled for late 2025, De Burgh is set to be among the first major apartment projects to meet the expanded scheme head-on, offering first-time buyers a realistic pathway to ownership in one of Canberra’s most connected neighbourhoods.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=139989]

Joel Robinson

JWLand’s De Burgh aligns with expanded Homebuyer Scheme, opening doors for first home buyers in Canberra’s Inner North

A subtropical pair of residential towers are in planning for a key South Brisbane site neighbouring the iconic Expo ’88 Skyneedle, with new documents revealing a vertically layered vision designed to respond to the precinct’s evolving high-density character.

The proposal has been lodged by&nbsp;Darveniza Group, which is also is behind the 400-apartment Station Quarter precinct in Alderley.

Darveniza Group, led by Jane Darveniza, the Brisbane-based investor and Queensland rich-lister and widow of the late property magnate Bojan Darveniza, is seeking approval for a mixed-use project encompassing 204 apartments, ground-level retail, food and drink tenancies, and office space across two architecturally integrated towers at 37–39 Manning Street.

Occupying an 1,822 sqm site, the proposed towers would rise above a sculptural podium base, with a recessed landscaped centre, rooftop communal areas, and a total of 220 car parks and 256 bicycle bays. The apartment mix spans one- to five-bedroom dwellings, with a design emphasis on generous balconies, cross-ventilation, and climate-responsive materials.

<img alt="First look: Twin towers proposed for Manning Street site beside Skyneedle" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="42c1f501-2afd-440b-af49-67c257123ea7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Manning%20podium.png?VersionId=KFlksfWzmDRD.VIYxd_1q3VAel.nN3TH" />

“The development is conceived as two slender twin buildings that meet at a lushly landscaped central recess,” the Finegrain design report states. “The façade is highly articulated with the plan form stepping back and forth to reduce visual bulk and maximise internal occupants’ access to natural light and air”.

A hallmark of the proposal is its integration of greenery, both visually and functionally. Around 77 per cent of the site’s green plot ratio is delivered through vertical planting spines, a green podium wall, and rooftop amenity. Ground-level deep planting and landscaped communal zones aim to create a shaded, walkable interface along Manning Street.

“The stepped plan form introduces variation in balcony setbacks and enclosed apartment areas, enriching both the façade expression and the resident experience,” the design team notes. “At ground and podium levels, this stepping also enhances permeability, maximising pedestrian view lines to the neighbouring Skyneedle and reinforcing a strong sense of local identity”.

<img alt="First look: Twin towers proposed for Manning Street site beside Skyneedle" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b3f26dfc-6b93-465c-9ffb-0a2530372a23" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Manning%20site.png?VersionId=JflvKdqDxcaHTFbb9HL5TwoiRgeQ2LqA" />

The site directly adjoins the heritage-listed Skyneedle at 35 Manning Street, an enduring legacy of World Expo ’88. The accompanying heritage impact report by Pendergast Architects contends that the proposal has been carefully conceived to protect the cultural significance and landmark visibility of the structure.

“The design provides setbacks, tower separation and podium articulation to maintain the visibility and landmark role of the adjoining Skyneedle,” the report states. “The significance of the Skyneedle lies principally in its landmark visibility and cultural symbolism, rather than in detailed fabric or architectural setting”.

The proposal sits within the Kurilpa Sustainable Growth Precinct, under Brisbane’s TLPI 02/2023, where revised planning controls support high-density, mixed-use development integrated with subtropical design and increased public realm contributions.

Finegrain’s design reflects this intent, drawing cues from the site's adjacency to Musgrave Park, the subtropical landscape of South Brisbane, and cultural landmarks such as QPAC and South Bank.

Twin green towers proposed for Manning Street, South Brisbane site beside Skyneedle

A first-of-its-kind culinary precinct is coming to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a>, inspired by global street-food flavours and best-in-class restaurants and entertainment.

Deicorp’s emerging mid-city precinct, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/melrose-central-melrose-park-33-hope-street-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Central</a>, will become the go-to precinct within the wider Melrose Park community, and at its heart, a first-of-its-kind culinary precinct that brings the buzz of Asia’s most iconic food streets to life.

Spanning more than 4,700 sqm, Melrose Central street food precinct is inspired by the energy and vibrant flavours of street-food neighbourhoods from Hong Kong and Tokyo to Seoul and Singapore.

This new destination will be over three times the size of existing offerings like Burwood Chinatown or Westfield Chatswood’s Hawker Lane, positioning Melrose Central as a must-visit dining hub for all of Sydney.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134220 project_image_fid=289878]

Designed by Anthony Ho of Basalt Studio, this street food concept blurs the lines between culinary theatre, art, and entertainment, offering an immersive experience. Neon-lit laneways thread between open kitchens and live grill stations, while murals, interactive displays, and light installations will bring the precinct to life, trading until late, a first for the area.

“We’ve imagined our street food concept as a graduated evolution of everything people love about Burwood Chinatown, East Village and Regent Place, elevated by the immersive artistry creating a city-style dining offer,” said Bilinda Turner, Head of Retail at Deicorp.

“By curating the very best tenants from across Australia, we’re creating a fit-for-purpose town centre for 2025 and beyond. It’s something that people truly haven’t seen before."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134220 project_image_fid=352610]

Melrose Central is far more than a food precinct. Spanning 30,000 sqm across four levels, the shopping centre will be home to approximately 100 retailers, providing a total lifestyle offering from morning until late evening.

Fresh food offerings span a brand new Coles Supermarket, Local Grocer, Korean Supermarket, Bakery and boutique fresh food, as well as a Dan Murphy's, while health needs are covered from a pharmacy, medical centre and allied health. Fitness and wellbeing take centre stage from a dedicated wellbeing hub that includes pilates, recovery, Infrared saunas and a gym, to name a few.

Variety stores will feature throughout, as well as personal care offerings from nail salons to hairdressers, as well as a dedicated early-learning centre on level 1.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134220 project_image_fid=289888]

Situated above the retail precinct will be 495 Turner Studio-designed apartments that open onto 6,000 sqm of lush podium gardens and rooftop terraces.

Located just six kilometres east of Parramatta’s CBD and 15km from Sydney CBD, Melrose Central forms the retail and lifestyle heart of Melrose Park, an urban-renewal precinct that is set to deliver more than 11,000 homes, 22,000 new residents, and 50,000 sqm of park and open space.

A dedicated stop on Parramatta Light Rail Stage 2 will arrive at the precinct’s Hope Street entrance, and the forthcoming Parramatta Gateway Bridge will link directly to Sydney Olympic Park and Wentworth Point.&nbsp;

Supported by a 10-minute drive, this growing catchment of 200,000 people, which is projected to grow to 279,000 by 2026, and an average household income above the Greater Sydney average, Melrose Central embodies Deicorp’s vision for transport-oriented, community-focused placemaking.&nbsp;

Melrose Central street food precinct and the wider Melrose Central retail town centre are both slated to open in mid-2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134220]

Melrose Central: First-of-its-kind culinary precinct coming to Sydney’s West

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a> has unveiled the fifth and final stage of its $1 billion Norwest community, The Orchards.

The final stage, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/zeste-at-the-orchards-norwest-104-fairway-drive-norwest-nsw-2153">Zeste</a>, will deliver 209 apartments across two distinctive buildings, Essence and Eden. The 135 apartments in Essence will be the first to be released to the market, which will bring to an end the decade-long vision to create a&nbsp;neighbourhood defined by design excellence, sustainability, and community engagement.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150510 project_image_fid=351878]

David Lee, Sales Manager at Sekisui House Australia said, Zeste's oversized living spaces and diverse apartment mix, which includes the introduction of&nbsp;Breezeway Sky Homes for the first time, deliver a unique lifestyle offering.

Early purchasers will benefit from exclusive VIP pricing as well as the choice of one premium upgrade, which Lee says is a "thank you" for their commitment to the project.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150510 project_image_fid=351876]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, Zeste embodies Sekisui House’s global design philosophy of creating harmony between people, homes and nature. Principal Ben Pomroy explained that Zeste is about living within the landscape.

“With two large courtyards, the lagoon pool precinct for the wider community and a central courtyard with pavilion exclusively for Zeste residents, the architecture frames an experience of living in a park," Pomroy said.

“Over 50 per cent of the site is landscaped, ensuring a deep connection to nature at every stage of daily life. The buildings are designed as a collection of smaller, finer-grain forms, with over 85% of apartments enjoying dual aspects.

“The focus on natural ventilation, generous layouts and communal interaction creates a residential environment that is both sustainable and socially connected.”

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150510 project_image_fid=351886]

Natalie Shalala, a member of Rothelowman’s interiors team said they reimagined the former site’s Orchard homestead with a contemporary twist. &nbsp;

“The design draws on the nostalgia of the past orchard – timber floors, the warmth of a fireplace, the rituals of the homestead and reinvents them for modern apartment living,"&nbsp;Shalala said.

“We have created two tonal palettes, one with pale honey undertones and another with a soft blush inspired by nectar. A highlight feature is the cathedral glass light box, a bespoke design element that re-interprets the classic lantern. It is both beautiful and functional, tying kitchen and bathroom spaces together in a way that feels entirely unique."

Shalala said the&nbsp;day-to-day liveability has been carefully considered, with abundant storage solutions, butler’s pantries, bike storage and joinery designed to simplify routines and enhance comfort.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150510 project_image_fid=352090]

Apartments in Zeste start from $715,000 for one-bedrooms and extend through to expansive three-bedroom Sky Homes priced from $2.25 million. Floorplans range from 59 sqm to 144sqm.

The mix in Essence comprises 41 one-bedroom, seven one-bedroom + Max space, 39 two-bedroom, 40 two-bedroom Breezeway Sky Homes (24 of which include additional Max spaces), and eight three-bedroom residences.&nbsp;

Max spaces are integrated into select residences, offering a flexible room that can be tailored to individual needs, ideal as a home office, children’s play area, or additional storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150510 project_image_fid=351881]

Zeste continues Sekisui House Australia’s partnership with Altogether Group, providing sustainable water, power and data services to residents. Passive design strategies include cross-ventilation, deep landscaping and water features that encourage evaporative cooling, aligning with The Orchards long-term environmental goals.&nbsp;

Construction is set to commence on the Zeste buildings in early 2026, with completion anticipated in late 2027 to early 2028.&nbsp;

More than 850 apartments have been sold across the masterplan, contributing to The Orchards community of 1,300 apartments when complete.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150510]

Sekisui House Australia launches Zeste, the final stage of its $1 billion Norwest masterplan

A significant addition to the Bella Vista Station Precinct is in the pipeline, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/landen-property">Landen</a> formally lodging a State Significant Development Application for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/40-memorial-avenue-bella-vista-40-memorial-avenue-nsw-2153">new apartment community on Memorial Avenue</a>.

Positioned beside the Elizabeth Macarthur Creek corridor, the project is among the first major transit-oriented residential proposals within the Metro precinct.

The masterplan, designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/turner-studio">Turner Architects</a>,&nbsp;outlines a four-stage delivery, comprising four buildings between four and fifteen storeys, and includes a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, alongside a limited selection of four-bedroom penthouses and terraces.

The project places a strong emphasis on housing diversity and liveability, with apartment sizes ranging from 50 to 180 sqm. The first stage will deliver 213 dwellings, followed by 231 in the second stage. Construction is expected to commence in 2026, pending approvals.

<img alt="Bella Vista Apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="bb3d84b1-d2df-4e26-915a-31b27faf9b1a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/View02_01-scaled.jpg?VersionId=Gb0AUtZ3VXsLxrqUaw_AwT_vcBwQ_FJu" />

As the first transit-oriented development (TOD) in the precinct, Landen’s Bella Vista community has been designed to align closely with the surrounding Metro infrastructure. The proposal integrates new pedestrian and cycling paths, a new bridge over Elizabeth Macarthur Creek, and direct access to Bella Vista Metro Station.

Lush communal amenities are also central to the design. 'The Grove' and the 'Garden Link' will create landscaped community areas that reflect the area's agricultural heritage and provide direct access to the creekside.&nbsp;

The ‘Garden Patio’ is conceived as a multi-use indoor-outdoor facility offering a gym, study nooks, and communal lounge spaces.&nbsp;Rooftop terraces across the buildings will offer views to the Blue Mountains and Parramatta skyline.

<img alt="Bella Vista Apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="778da409-d5cf-4e7d-9ba9-0c36990bf0b4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/landen-bella-property-image.jpg?VersionId=ukPpmVcHF71xRc7U3MUT5rtGwOsntMMz" />

Landen’s Head of Property, Shane Harding, said the proposal highlights the developer’s precinct-scale ambition.

“As the first TOD proposal in Bella Vista, it highlights Landen’s ability to pioneer precinct-scale projects, integrate housing with infrastructure, and deliver outcomes that align with government priorities,” Harding told the Daily Telegraph.

The project arrives at a time of rapid growth in Western Sydney, with Bella Vista alone forecast to more than double in population by 2046. The development’s location, between the Bella Vista and Kellyville Metro stations, positions it as a connected lifestyle hub for families, professionals and downsizers seeking access to transport, schools, and employment centres.

Pending approval, the development is slated for completion in 2028.

Landen plans 444-apartment community in Bella Vista Metro zone

Property Forecast 2020

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Most talking heads, when asked to predict the coming year in real estate, look at the recent past and extrapolate that to the near future. So most commentators have been predicting the recent past. And therefore 2020 is all about Sydney and Melbourne.
More thoughtful forecasters have suggested the growth spurt in the biggest cities in late 2019 will not translate into another price boom in 2020. Some, including Westpac, expect relatively moderate growth in Melbourne and Sydney, with Brisbane leading on price escalation.
Very few ever discuss regional markets – which is unfortunate, because that’s where investors will find some of the best options for 2020, if it occurs to them to look beyond the big cities.
In NSW, I would suggest the best possibilities will be found outside of Sydney. And those who undertake research beyond absorbing headlines and sound bites will be surprised to find the best performers recently have been regional.
When Sydney was going through its post-boom correction in 2018 and the first half of 2019, regional areas of NSW were a notable contrast. Locations throughout the state continued to show growth in sales activity and prices.
The regions outside of Sydney have many examples of win-win-win situation provided by regional centres: affordable buy-in prices, much better rental yields than the big cities and good prospects for steady growth.
Many of these have long-term growth rates (the average annual increase in median house prices over 10 years) of 6% , 7% or more.
Regional centres with those kinds of strong long-term growth rates include Orange, Dubbo, Goulburn, Bowral, Mitttagong, Wyong, Terrigal and many others.
Goulburn near Canberra and Wyong on the Central Coast both have long-term capital growth rates of 7% per year while Bowral in the Southern Highlands averages close to 8% per year, which is competitive with anywhere in Australia.
Many locations throughout Regional NSW have recorded double-digit growth in their median house prices over the past 12 months.
These growth markets are spread widely across the state. Kingscliff in the north near the Queensland border, has risen 12% in the past year and now has a median house price above $1 million. Nearby Tweed Heads has grown its median house price 11% to $790,000.
In the far south of the state, Lake Albert (which is part of the Wagga Wagga market) has risen 13% to $400,000. Another sector of the Wagga market, Tatton, has grown 14% to $556,000, while central Wagga Wagga increased 9%.
Suffolk Park, which is part of the high-profile Byron Bay market, has increased 12% to reach $1.17 million.
Jindabyne in the Snowy River region has delivered a 14% rise in its median house price to reach $715,000, while Gulgong in the Mid Western Region is up 14% to $330,000. Gloucester in the Mid Coast region has increased 17% to $315,000.
Other locations in Regional NSW to record annual growth in the 7% to 10% range include Bathurst, Broken Hill, Cooma, Cootamundra, Cowra, Griffith, Maclean, Merimbula, Mudgee, Singleton, Tumut and Kempsey.
This strong price performance has occurred at a time when the Sydney market has generally been struggling for growth (prior to the revival in prices which occurred in latter part of 2019).
It provides compelling evidence that investors can find good investments with appealing prospects for long-term growth in regional areas.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Look beyond Sydney for NSW real estate in 2020: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Canberra is set for its strongest growth market in years, following a recent surge in demand in the housing markets across the national capital.
Our latest analysis of sales activity and prices shows that the number of suburbs with rising demand is the highest in the five years we have been conducting our quarterly surveys.
Our two previous reports both found 18 suburbs with rising demand, but this new survey has identified 32 growth suburbs. The previous best was the 26 growth suburbs in the Autumn 2019 survey.
Our research also reveals good price performance, with two-thirds of Canberra suburbs delivering growth in their median house prices in the past 12months. Of the 41 Canberra suburbs with growing house prices, 24 have increased more than 5% in annual terms.
This reinforces a point I regularly make: that the generalised price data published in mainstream media (one figure to describe an entire city market) often fails to tell the full story. In the case of Canberra, most suburbs are achieving price growth well above the generalised figures quoted by research firms (mostly 3-4% for Canberra in the past year).
The overall outcome is a departure from the usual status of the national capital’s real estate market, which is one of steady, consistent performance. The surge in the number of locations where sales activity is rising suggests 2020 will be a year of above-average price performance.
Canberra’s property market continues to be underpinned by a strong ACT economy. The ACT ranked fourth among the states and territories in the State of the States report published by CommSec in January 2020, ahead of Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia – and was ranked No.1 on housing finance and employment, and No.2 on equipment investment.
The ACT consistently has the highest average incomes and the lowest unemployment rate in the nation.
Three Canberra precincts stand out for the number of suburbs with rising sales activity: Belconnen (eight growth suburbs), Gungahlin (six) and Tuggeranong (seven). The Inner North precinct also features prominently, with four suburbs with upwardly mobile markets.
With Belconnen, Gungahlin and the Inner North featuring strongly, it reinforces (yet again) that the strongest part of the Canberra market is in the north of the city.
The Belconnen District is a real standout, with eight growth suburbs and 10 others with steady sales performance. Rising markets include Dunlop, Florey, Giralang, Higgins, Holt and Melba.
It also has several of the suburbs where median house prices have grown more than 5% in the past 12 months, including Melba (11%), Macquarie (8%), Macgregor (7%) and Latham (8%).
Leading Gungahlin District suburbs for price growth include Crace (up 10%), while the suburb of Gungahlin is one of the leaders among Canberra’s apartment markets (median unit price up 14%). In the Inner North precinct, the suburb of O’Connor was Canberra’s No.1 suburb for annual price growth (median house price up 20% to $1.26 million).
While many of the top performing precincts are in the northern part of Canberra, the Tuggeranong District in the far south is an emerging market worth tracking.
With seven growth suburbs and seven others with consistent sales activity, it’s close behind the Belconnen District in terms of buyer demand. The rising markets include Banks, Bonython, Conder, Fadden, Kambah, Monash and Theodore.
Numerous suburbs in the Tuggeranong District have had solid price growth in the past 12 months, including Calwell (5%), Chishom (6%), Conder (8%), Fadden (7%), Kambah (7%) and Theodore (7%).
TERRY RYDER is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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Canberra real estate set for its strongest growth in years: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
A Shakespearean character suggested (Henry VI, Part 2, Act IV, Scene 2), as a great way to improve the country: “First thing we do: let’s kill all the lawyers.”
While the idea has merit in 21st Century Australia, I think a better strategy would be to get rid of all the economists. A good method of dispatch would be to push them off a cliff, similar to the September cliff they’re all predicting as the next catastrophe to afflict Australia’s economy.
If there’s a more pointless and over-rated profession anywhere in society, I don’t know about it. These people continue to get paid, and they continue to feature daily in major media with their incessant “warnings”, despite their staggering ability to be wrong with most of their forecasts.
For many of our chattering economists, the meaning of life is their picture in the paper or a short grab on the evening television news. Some exhibit a need for daily exposure. How best to achieve that? Say something sensationally negative – the truth is optional and you can be sure that no journalist will ever check on your track record of getting things right, so credibility is unimportant. Just describing yourself as an economist is enough.
So when the impacts of Covid-19 first became apparent in February and March, the nation’s gaggle of chattering economists began predicting a collapse in real estate prices.
The people I call “the usual suspects”, the economists and independent ranters who always talk down property, began tipping house prices would fall at least 20% and some suggested even 30% or 40%.
Journalists, being the shallow creatures that they are, lapped it all up and rushed to print with sensationally negative headlines, without applying any scrutiny to the forecasters and their motives.
Four months later, some of those forecasters are retracting their earlier predictions. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital, always eager to be a real estate pessimist, recently recanted his 20% decline tip and suggested a more moderate outcome.
The boffins at UBS, who seldom see anything positive in real estate, recently admitted they’d got in wrong and that housing markets were holding up a lot better than they thought.
The latest data from both CoreLogic and SQM Research indicates that most of the markets across Australia still have house prices higher than they were at the start of 2020, in defiance of those dire forecasts.
But now the diehard doomsdayers have found a new catastrophe to obsess over: the September cliff.
The theory is that come the end of September, the banks and the federal government will flick a switch and stop supporting Australia.
The trigger here is that JobKeeper is scheduled to run until then and the banks have put a similar deadline on their extension of mortgage payment holidays to borrowers. So, when the government and banks suddenly stop caring about the nation, and themselves, and switch off their support, everything will fall off a cliff. Theoretically.
It’s a convenient scenario for pessimistic economists (is there any other type?) and journalists with a negative mindset (there is definitely no other type).
But there are serious flaws in the theory and I feel confident in suggesting that is simply won’t happen. There will be no cliff for prices to fall off at the end of September.
Here’s what’s wrong with the “September cliff” theory:-
· It assumes that everything depends on JobKeeper and mortgage holidays. It doesn’t – there’s a whole lot more in the mix.
· It assumes the Federal Government will suddenly stop caring about the national economy and simply switch off support in September. They won’t.
· It assumes banks will shoot themselves in the foot by abandoning their customers. They haven’t come this far in supporting their borrower customers to abandon them later.
· It assumes that nothing will change with business and employment between now and 30 September. But a lot is changing already, with restrictions easing, businesses re-opening and jobs re-appearing.
· It overlooks the extraordinary level of stimulus measures in play. Multiple booster measures from all levels of government have been activated and there is more to come. A $72 billion spend on infrastructure provides a prime example of the measures that will generate economic activity and jobs. The $25,000 grant for people to build homes is generating activity that has surpassed all expectations and the economic multiplier effect of residential construction is the second biggest of any industry sector in Australia.
· It overlooks the impact of the ongoing easing of restrictions. Before we get to the doomsday deadline, state borders will be open (most are already, notwithstanding the Victoria situation) and tourism will be pumping again. Australia are revelling in the new freedoms and this will help revive economies. The latest ABS data shows that retail spending is rising again, with a 17% increase in May.
· It overlooks the news that people who sought mortgage holidays are rapidly moving back to making mortgage payments. ANZ said in mid-June that a third of the customers who sought a holiday are already back making payments. The numbers of borrowers resuming payments is growing every week.
· It ignores the extraordinary resilience of real estate markets, which have a history of not only resisting economic downturns but leading national economic recovery. Real estate markets revel in defying the most dire forecasts of the chattering economists.
· It forgets the natural boost to real estate markets from the Spring selling season.
The “September cliff” theory will be forgotten even before we get to September. The people who made those forecasts will have forgotten they made them. For most of the talking heads, it’s nothing more than a soundbite, a publicity opportunity. Some of them don’t even believe their public statements.
It will join an already-long list of predictions that have been proven false since February. Every statistic that has been published to date – whether it be property prices, auction clearances rates, vacancy rates, retail spending, unemployment figures and GDP numbers – has been less dramatic than the media forecasts.
It’s time we stopped listening to the attention-seeking economists whose only objective is to gain media profile by feeding the 24-hour news cycle, with little regard to the consequences.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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The 'September Cliff' is just the latest property economic nonsense: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The key message for property investors right now is that there are many growth markets across Australia.
There’s a tendency in mainstream media to extrapolate the situations in Sydney and Melbourne to the whole nation. If the big cities are in decline, then Australian real estate is in decline, according to news media.
This is seldom true – and it’s certainly not the case right now. Some of our smaller capital cities are pumping strongly and, in particular, regional Australia has many growth markets.
Last week I made this comment: “Regional Queensland has achieved something that few jurisdictions across Australia have managed: it has maintained its previous high levels of well-performing markets in defiance of Covid-19.”
I wrote that I rated the Sunshine Coast one of the strongest economic and real estate stories in the nation and that it continues to produce solid results in its property markets.
The anecdotal evidence from people at the coalface of the Sunshine Coast property industry is that sales are happening, vacancies remain low and there’s no evidence of values falling.
The latest data on prices and vacancy rates confirms that – with evidence of notable growth pockets.
Most of the postcodes across the Sunshine Coast region, including Noosa (which is a separate local government area), have vacancy rates between 1% and 2%. While some of the capital city CBDs and tourism-dominated locations like Surfers Paradise have had big blowouts in their vacancies, the Sunshine Coast has resisted this trend.
Although tourism is an important industry to the Sunshine Coast, its economy is insulated by the ongoing massive spend on infrastructure, including the evolving medical precinct, the new CBD now under construction, the billion-dollar highway improvements, the upgrade of the local airport to international status and the subsea internet cable link to Asia – among other projects.
And this is bolstering the local property market.
The top end of the market in particular has been boosted, thanks in part of the influx of well-paid medical specialists working in the new medical precinct, based around the $2 billion university hospital.
The two most expensive suburbs in the region, Sunshine Beach and Minyama, have both experienced notable uplift in prices recently. The median house price for Sunshine Beach, just outside Noosa, has risen 16% in the latest quarter and 27% in annual terms, to reach $1.8 million. Minyama is up 7% in the most recent quarter and 23% annually – and typical houses are now above $1.1 million.
The median house price for Noosa Heads has risen 8% in the past year, including 1.4% in the most recent quarter.
Other locations throughout the Sunshine Coast region, including Mooloolaba, Maroochydore, Coolum and Pelican Waters, have recorded more moderate growth, but nevertheless have achieved price uplift in both the past 12 months and the most recent quarter – and a time when the big cities are feeling the negative impacts of Covid-19.
Keep that in mind the next time you hear one of our chattering economists telling us that “Australian property prices” are falling.
The Sunshine Coast is a standout example among many thriving regional markets.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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Sunshine Coast remains a standout market during COVID-19: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Three major housing-related measures were highlighted in Treasurer Frydenberg’s budget address on the 6th of October: an extension of the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme (FHLDS), additional low-cost financing for affordable housing through NHFIC, and additional funding for the Indigenous Home Ownership Program.
Other measures detailed in the budget papers included a proposed capital gains exemption for granny flats for eligible persons from July next year, and a continuation of funding for state social housing services.
The papers also note that the expansion of the first home loan deposit scheme will be complemented by announced changes to ease credit regulations, which would boost credit availability.
Funnelling new demand into new property
First home owners have previously been a target of demand-side housing stimulus during economic downturns. Currently, Australia may be in a demographic ‘sweet spot’ for first home buyer demand.
The relatively large millennial generation is now estimated to be aged around 26 to 37 years old. According to ABS data, this puts millennials into the most common first home buyer age groups.
Alongside the typical barriers to entry for hopeful first home buyers, this may be one of the reasons the first home loan deposit scheme has been so well-subscribed since its introduction in January this year.
The extension to the FHLDS will see an additional 10,000 places available between the 6th of October and the 30th of June 2021, adding to the 20,000 places made available since the scheme started in January 2020.
However, these additional places are for construction or purchase of newly-built homes. The price thresholds have also been increased for newly built homes, which would potentially further incentivise a pivot away from the established housing market. The change in purchasing thresholds by region are summarised below.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/10/8/Eliza%20Owen%20Budget.PNG" alt="">
It will be interesting to see if these conditions create as rapid an uptake as the places for established housing. In 2008, the temporary boost to the first home owner grant provided added incentives for new builds, yet 85% of its uptake was directed at established housing₁. However, incentives limited to new home builds could still help soften the blow to dwelling construction through COVID-19.
Since the introduction of the HomeBuilder scheme, new home sales have been boosted across Western Australia, South Australia and Queensland. CoreLogic data shows valuations ordered for the purpose of construction loans have seen a boost above pre-COVID levels since the introduction of the HomeBuilder scheme.
In terms of the impact these schemes would have on the established market, the increased incentive for new home builds could reduce established home prices if demand is diverted from this sector. However, the price of newly built homes may rise up to the threshold cut-off. It is worth noting that despite the rhetoric employed around the extension of the scheme supporting the construction sector, the budget papers highlight that this will not be enough to offset a decline in new dwelling investment.
At August, dwelling approvals for units had fallen -18.4% year-on-year. The budget papers forecast an 11% decline in dwelling investment over 2020-21, before rising 7% in 2021-22. Indirect Impacts on Housing With much of this year’s budget focused on the labour market, infrastructure construction and tax cuts, one could be forgiven for thinking housing reform and stimulus took a back seat in this year’s budget. However, some of the budget highlights will also have implications for housing.
These include: 
<ol>
<li>The JobMaker hiring credit and JobTrainer fund. These initiatives may help re-absorption of young people into the labour force following the initial pandemic-induced shock. This reflects the disproportionate job loss of young people throughout COVID-19, where around 40% of job losses between March and August were among those aged 24 and under. Job loss among younger Australians may present less direct risk to the housing market due to their lower likelihood of holding mortgage debt. However, support for youth employment may create more buoyancy in the rental market, where inner-city markets in particular have seen rental income declines since the onset of COVID-19. </li>
<li>A boost to infrastructure spending. Depending on the nature of infrastructure projects, surrounding housing markets could see a rise or fall in demand. Much of this year’s infrastructure allocation is in roadworks, which can have positive impacts on nearby housing by increasing accessibility to an area, but devalue properties with exposure to high traffic intensity, construction and noise pollution.</li>
</ol>
Support for regional Australia
The budget outlines $350 million in support for regional tourism to attract domestic visitation, and seeks to strengthen regional industry through concessional loans to farmers and access for exporters to global supply chains. This may further generate interest in regional dwelling markets, beyond what has resulted from COVID-19 and the normalisation of remote work. However, it worth noting this budget allocated little to fossil fuel alternatives, with climate change presenting on ongoing challenge to the liveability of some regional markets.
 Beyond the Budget
Further to the budget, there have been many institutional interventions which have likely played a role in stabilising housing market conditions since COVID-19.
These include, but are not limited to: 
<ul>
<li>A comprehensive monetary easing package from the RBA, which saw a reduction of the cash rate to 0.25%, bond yield targeting and the establishment of a term funding facility which has been extended to June next year; </li>
<li>Early access to $10,000 of superannuation in 2019/20 and 2020/21; </li>
<li>The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) changed capital ratio expectations for the banking sector in March, facilitated home loan deferrals and later extended the availability of deferrals to March 2021;</li>
<li>The availability of JobKeeper and a boost to JobSeeker, which were made available from March, and extended to March 2021, albeit in a tapered form; and, </li>
<li>A mix of state-based incentives for home buyers, such as the Building Bonus grant in WA, the Home Improvement Scheme in the NT, and temporary stamp duty discounts in NSW.</li>
</ul>
These events remind us that housing does not operate in a vacuum. Many different factors are currently supporting housing demand. This has created a turn in housing market sentiment, which is seeing prices rise across the small capital cities, and a softening of price declines across Sydney and Melbourne.
Looking forward, there may still be more tailwinds to come. The RBA left the cash rate on hold in October ahead of the budget, but hinted in the final sentence of the statement on the decision that “additional monetary easing” was possible.
A recent address by Deputy Governor Guy Debelle carried the same messaging. Lower interest rates, together with easier access to housing credit could create further housing market demand, given prices have historically increased against a lower cost of debt and greater availability of housing finance options.
ELIZA OWEN is the Head of Research Australia at CoreLogic
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What does the budget mean for the housing market? CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The past few weeks have shown signs of a positive turn in the housing market. There has been a strong rebound in consumer sentiment, and outside of Melbourne, auction clearance rates and volumes are rising.
More recently, CoreLogic listings data has shown that in some cities, vendors are also more willing to test the market by listing their property for sale.
Across the capital cities, ‘new’ listings, which are properties freshly added to the market over a period, increased 0.7% in the four weeks to the 20th of September.
This was driven by a particularly strong jump in new listings across Sydney, up by 382 listings over the period, followed by Perth, where new listings increased by 286.
The combined capital cities chart shows a subdued start to the spring selling season, which is now gradually gathering pace.
However, new listings volumes are still down 35% on the previous four-year average.
The capital city breakdown reveals Sydney and Perth as leading the new listings volume, while new listings across Melbourne fell by 935 listings.
While this is a large drop in new listings, the decline has eased from the previous four week period, where the count of new listings fell by 2,976 in the four weeks to August 23rd.
All but two of the capital cities recorded an increase in listings. This signifies that vendors may be more confident in selling their property.
The exceptions were Melbourne, where transaction activity is understandably constrained by stage 4 restrictions, and Darwin, where listing numbers are generally lower and more volatile CoreLogic valuation data suggests that there is so far little indication that these increases in listings may be a result of distressed sales.
Potential in the Perth market
While transaction activity is gradually improving across the country, Perth stands out as a market primed for recovery.
For the four weeks ending 20th of September, Perth and regional WA were the only dwelling markets where new listings volumes exceeded the numbers in the equivalent four week period of the previous year.
Listings is not the only transaction data suggesting more confidence in the Perth dwelling market. This is shown in the chart below, which capered capital city sales numbers in August, with a 6-month average of pre-COVID sales volumes.
Perth is the only capital city where sales numbers where above the pre-COVID average. These higher levels of transaction activity are also showing up in mild value increases across the Perth dwelling market. In the 28- days to September 23rd, the Perth home value index increased 0.6%
. While a positive turn in Perth dwellings may be surprising during a recession, the WA economy has been supported by a 4.8% increase in mining investment over the year.
ABS payroll data suggests since the start of the pandemic, payroll jobs across WA fell less than 1%, compared with national declines of 4.5%.
Perth dwelling values are also relatively affordable, sitting 22.2% below the record dwelling value in June 2014, and there is a strong mix of state and federal first home buyer incentives in place, which may be encouraging demand as well.
A consistent upswing in Perth property values will depend on the resilience of the market through the end of mortgage repayment deferrals, whether there are further reductions in the cash rate, and how successfully COVID-19 can be contained.
ELIZA OWEN is the Head of Research Australia at CoreLogic
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Surprising data shows Perth is bouncing back: CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Anyone who has been paying attention will know that there are plenty of solid to strong property markets around Australia.
The collapse in prices that attention-seeking economists forecast in March and regularly since then simply hasn’t happened. Of the 15 major market jurisdictions in Australia (eight capital cities and seven state regional markets), 11 have house prices higher than at the start of the year.
First-home buyers, boosted by government assistance, are very busy and other types of owner-occupiers are active also. Investors are starting to get off the fence and follow the trends that are pointing to growth in key areas.
So where are those prime targets, which currently have the ingredients for growth? I recently explored that subject with buyers’ agent Philip Robison as a guest on his podcast series. Under the topic heading of “Game-changing trends supercharging markets,” we discussed the key trends currently driving markets:
1. The cities with the virus under control have higher confidence, more activity, lower vacancies and busier markets.
2. The Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle, well under way before the pandemic, has been exacerbated by the virus shutdown periods.
3. First-home buyers are the most active cohort in the market at present, driven by high levels of govt assistance and low interest rates.
4. Vacancies are very low in many markets, which means rising rents - and history shows that prices tend to follow.
So which locations are positively impacted by these key trends?
1. Adelaide, Perth, Brisbane, Darwin, Canberra and Hobart all have few pandemic issues and they have busy property markets. Adelaide has one of the most competitive markets in the nation, Perth has been a huge increase in sales activity in recent months, Brisbane markets are rising steadily and Canberra is a standout because it has delivered price growth every month since March.
2. The Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle is mostly about regional Australia: the rising jurisdictions include regional Victoria near Melbourne, Regional NSW near Sydney and Regional Qld near Brisbane. Brisbane itself is also getting momentum from the Exodus trend, particularly from people vacating Sydney and looking for a city less congested and more affordable.
3. First-home buyers are busy in the outer-ring suburbs of most capital cities, but particularly in places like Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide. They’re also targeting regional cities and towns, especially those within striking distance of the big cities - so Regional Victoria near Melbourne, Regional NSW near Sydney, Regional Qld near Brisbane.
4. Vacancies are particularly low in Adelaide, Perth, Brisbane, Darwin, Canberra and Hobart, and in most key regional markets across Australia. It’s not uncommon to find locations where vacancies are below 1%. Agencies across the country are crying out for rental listings.
So, where does that point us? Well, some locations are being boosted by all of those four trends.
Therefore, the locations benefiting most from all of these dominant trends are ...
<ul>
<li>Adelaide,</li>
<li>Brisbane,</li>
<li>Regional Victoria near Melbourne,</li>
<li>Regional NSW near Sydney,</li>
<li>Regional Qld near Brisbane.</li>
</ul>
They’re not the only markets that are pumping strongly, but they are the standouts.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au ryder@hotspotting.com.au twitter.com/hotspotting
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