<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/consolidated-properties">Consolidated Properties Group</a> (CPG) is approaching the launch of its latest Brisbane riverfront development, Castile, on the dress circle Skyring Terrace in Newstead.</p>

<p>VIP buyers are now being engaged, with a full public sales launch coming later this year.</p>

<p>Positioned as the final opportunity to secure a new absolute riverfront residence on the East bank of Newstead, Teneriffe or New Farm, Castile at 47 Skyring Terrace has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> as a timeless addition to the Brisbane skyline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=371113]</p>

<p>The name Castile draws on themes of permanence, sophistication and legacy, reflecting a broader vision centred on enduring architecture and timelessness in the rarest of riverfront positions.&nbsp;</p>

<p>CPG Chairman and CEO Don O’Rorke said the project had been envisioned as a future Brisbane icon.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“With 47 metres of direct river frontage and never to be built out views, 47 Skyring Terrace is the definitive address on the Brisbane River,” O’Rorke said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=371114]</p>

<p>“Rather than following trend-based apartment design, Castile draws inspiration from Brisbane’s great heritage buildings, reinterpreting classical architecture into a contemporary riverfront landmark designed to stand proudly for the next 100 years,” he said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The approved development will comprise 227 apartments across a 25-storey tower alongside a boutique six-storey riverfront building of just 12 residences.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Construction is scheduled to commence in September 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150489]</p>


Joel Robinson

CPG unveils Castile Newstead ahead of upcoming sales launch

<p>Australia’s online shopping habits have shifted dramatically over the last decade. As eCommerce volumes surged, so too did the frustrations that came with traditional parcel delivery: missed deliveries, long Post Office queues, parcel theft and the challenge of being home during business hours.</p>

<p>Australia Post’s Parcel Lockers emerged as one of the more practical responses to that changing consumer behaviour.</p>

<p>What started as a relatively niche delivery option has evolved into a nationwide network of more than 1,400 self-service Parcel Lockers positioned at train stations, shopping centres, supermarkets and Post Offices across the country. The system allows Australians to send, collect and return parcels 24 hours a day, fundamentally changing how many people interact with deliveries.</p>

<p>The appeal is relatively straightforward: flexibility.</p>

<p>Instead of waiting at home for a delivery driver or rushing to a Post Office before closing time, users can direct eligible parcels to a Parcel Locker location of their choice. Once the parcel arrives, Australia Post sends a notification with a collection code or QR access through the AusPost app, allowing customers to retrieve their package at any time within the collection window.</p>

<p>For apartment residents in particular, the system has become increasingly valuable.</p>

<p>Higher-density living has created logistical challenges around deliveries, especially in buildings without concierge services or secure parcel rooms. Missed deliveries are common, while parcel theft has become an increasing concern as online shopping volumes continue to rise.</p>

<p>Australia Post itself has repeatedly highlighted the growing issue of “porch pirates” during peak shopping periods, encouraging customers to use Parcel Lockers as a safer alternative to unattended home deliveries.</p>

<p>That security aspect is one of the key reasons the Australia Post Parcel Locker network has grown so rapidly.</p>

<p>Parcel Lockers are positioned as secure, monitored collection points that reduce the risk of theft while also improving delivery efficiency for Australia Post. Instead of multiple redelivery attempts, parcels can be consolidated into a single secure destination.</p>

<p>The Parcel Lockers themselves are free to use through a MyPost account and support a range of parcel sizes up to 16 kilograms and dimensions of approximately 35 x 44 x 61 centimetres.</p>

<p>Beyond receiving parcels, the system has increasingly become integrated into the broader eCommerce ecosystem.</p>

<p>Customers can now use Parcel Lockers to return online purchases, while retailers have embraced the model as a way to improve delivery success rates and reduce friction in the shopping process. Australia Post has actively expanded partnerships with major retailers and promoted Parcel Lockers as part of a broader out-of-home strategy.</p>

<p>The timing of that expansion aligns with broader changes in Australian shopping behaviour.</p>

<p>The acceleration of online retail during and after the pandemic placed enormous pressure on delivery infrastructure. Parcel volumes reached record highs, particularly during Black Friday and Christmas periods, with Australia Post delivering more than 100 million parcels during peak festive seasons.</p>

<p>That growth forced logistics providers to rethink the “last mile” of delivery, widely regarded as the most expensive and operationally difficult stage of the process.</p>

<p>Parcel Locker systems have increasingly been viewed as part of the long-term solution.</p>

<p>The concept itself is not unique to Australia. Parcel Locker networks have become common globally, particularly across Europe and Asia, where dense urban environments and apartment living create similar logistical challenges. But Australia’s geography and suburban sprawl made adoption slower initially.</p>

<p>Now, however, the convenience factor is driving mainstream usage.</p>

<p>For commuters, Parcel Lockers near train stations allow parcels to be collected on the way home from work. For apartment dwellers, they remove the uncertainty around access and missed deliveries.</p>

<p>The rise of the AusPost app has also streamlined the experience, centralising notifications, tracking and Parcel Locker access into a single platform. Australia Post has increasingly pushed customers toward app-based delivery management, partly as a way to combat phishing scams and fake delivery notifications, which have become more sophisticated in recent years.</p>

<p>The Parcel Locker model is also beginning to influence property development itself.</p>

<p>Parcel management has become a growing consideration in apartment building design, particularly as online shopping becomes embedded in everyday life. Many new residential developments are now incorporating dedicated parcel rooms or Parcel Locker systems into foyers and communal spaces.</p>

<p>For developers, parcel management is increasingly viewed as part of the broader resident amenity offering, alongside gyms, wellness spaces and communal work areas.</p>

<p>That reflects a wider evolution in how residential buildings are designed.</p>

<p>Apartment buyers are placing greater emphasis on convenience, security and operational functionality, particularly in higher-density urban environments. Parcel delivery, once considered a minor operational detail, has become an increasingly important part of that equation.</p>

<p>Australia Post’s Parcel Locker network sits at the centre of that behavioural shift.</p>

<p>What began as a simple alternative delivery option has evolved into a key piece of infrastructure supporting Australia’s growing eCommerce economy and changing urban lifestyles.</p>

<p>And as online shopping continues to expand, the role of Parcel Lockers is likely to become even more embedded in how Australians live, shop and receive goods.</p>


How Australia Post Parcel Lockers changed parcel delivery convenience in Australia

<p>Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.</p>

<p>Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]</p>

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

<p>Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;</p>

<p>At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]</p>

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

<p>Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.</p>

<p>David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.</p>

<p>“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]</p>

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

<p>While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.</p>

<p>Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;</p>


Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.</p>

<p>The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.</p>

<p>Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.</p>

<p>“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" /></p>

<p>Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.</p>

<p>The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.</p>

<p>“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" /></p>

<p>Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.</p>

<p>“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.</p>

<p>The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.</p>

<p>“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”</p>

<p>The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.</p>

<p>The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.</p>


Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

<p>Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.</p>

<p>Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.</p>

<p>The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.</p>

<p>“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.</p>

<p>“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”</p>

<p>The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.</p>

<p>“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”</p>

<p>From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.</p>

<p>“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”</p>

<p>The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.</p>

<p>“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.</p>

<p>“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.</p>

<p>“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”</p>

<p>The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.</p>

<p>“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property Crash

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<p>RBA liaison believes it can see through the downturn in construction to the other side.</p>
<p>Below Scutty reports on the latest AiG construction index gauge:</p>
<p class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XgQZzrxcIIM/XenLm_8jMII/AAAAAAAAzOk/ysAVnkMDPoMCnM41cdRqrZxiiHZVAFM9QCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/AIG1.jpg" width="640" height="136" data-original-height="142" data-original-width="663"></p>
<p class="separator">Apartments (37), engineering (33.3) and commercial (43.7) all came in with very contractionary readings. </p>
<p class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-l136Sd1V4sw/XenLm0vwVNI/AAAAAAAAzOo/L8SgToObOWQzHb4nrfOYEQtYB-oLGwlpACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/AIG2.jpg" width="640" height="204" data-original-height="513" data-original-width="1600"></p>
<p class="separator">Perhaps house building is due to lift soon, but otherwise, it's another stinker.</p>
<p class="separator"><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. </em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Construction continues crashing: Pete Wargent

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<p>It’s hard to read a paper at the moment without finding an array of negative headlines about Sydney’s declining property market.  While media reports paint an overwhelming gloomy picture for the market, a closer look at the data tells a more nuanced story.</p>
<h2>Sydney’s top end dragging down the averages</h2>
<p>The Sydney residential property market as a whole recorded negative growth in the first quarter and for the year to April 2018.</p>
<p>However, the latest data from CoreLogic shows this result was largely driven by the premium end of the market.</p>
<p>The most affordable 20% of dwelling values recorded gains in these periods.</p>
<p>In fact, the more affordable half of Sydney dwelling values recorded an uptick in prices when averaged out over the year to April 2018. However, a pullback at the more expensive end caused the overall average to be weighed down.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/08/shutterstock_343792502.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The top end of Sydney dwelling values ($1.4m-$1.8m+) experienced the most significant decline. These properties suffered a substantial 7.2% decline over the 12 months to April 2018 which dragged the average down to -3.4% for the market overall.</p>
<p>Affordable property at the medium-low price ranges (under $875K) has been far more resilient.</p>
<p>“We often tell our investors to read the numbers, and understand the data, not the sensational headlines, and this is a typical case in point,” said Ironfish Head of Property, William Mitchell.</p>
<p>“Sydney has been an incredibly hot market so we do expect the overall market to trend sideways for a period. However, as the data demonstrates, there are sub-markets which can outperform the wider market, and these are the markets that we are looking for when it comes to selecting property to recommend to our investors.</p>
<p>“Though there will be a pullback in prices in pockets of Sydney, owners need to remember the market has increased significantly since the boom began in 2011, so a small adjustment is not a ‘bust’.”</p>
<h2>Melbourne property market continues to perform</h2>
<p>Like Sydney, the headlines for Melbourne property have focussed on the negative; specifically, Melbourne’s marginal decline (-0.7%) in residential property values for the first quarter of 2018.</p>
<p>Yet the data reveals that the Melbourne market has continued to perform, with the vast majority of price points recording positive growth over the 12 months to April 2018.</p>
<p>The affordable end of the market again recorded the largest gains. Properties priced $803K and under recorded an average gain of 9.87% in the year to April 2018 – a very strong result.</p>
<p>Only the most expensive dwellings (i.e. the top 10% of prices) recorded a negative gain in Q1.</p>
<h4>The return of first home buyers </h4>
<div id="ig-8773e3f7-dd3f-1231-f65f-9208c80a9c5b" class="infogram-embed" data-id="8d184527-937a-4799-b7df-1c93ee767c42" data-type="interactive" data-title="First Home Buyers, All States " data-processed="1"> <iframe title="First Home Buyers, All States " src="https://e.infogram.com/8d184527-937a-4799-b7df-1c93ee767c42?src=embed#async_embed" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" width="320" height="240"></iframe>
</div>
<p>The outperformance of more affordable product has been much attributed to more first home buyers returning to the market. This is a trend we’ve seen not just in Sydney and Melbourne, but also across all the 5 major capital cities.</p>
<h4><strong>First Home Buyer mortgages on the rise</strong></h4>
<p>In Melbourne, strong population growth coupled with the increasing appeal of apartment living has further underpinned demand for the affordable end of the market.</p>
<p>Melbourne apartments recorded the strongest capital growth (6.8%) compared to apartments in any of the other 5 major capital cities for the year to April 2018.</p>
<p>Given Melbourne house prices have increased up to 70% since mid-2013, apartments continue to offer a significantly more affordable alternative to buyers.  At current median values, a Melbourne apartment is about 33.9% cheaper than purchasing a standalone house – providing a very strong incentive.</p>
<p>“With the tighter lending environment at the moment, affordability is definitely the flavour of the month. As a result, we are seeing more buyers turning to apartments and this market is expected to perform well in the medium term,” Mr Mitchell said.</p>
<p><span> </span></p>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Is the property market crashing? 

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<p>Professor Steve Keen is back predicting that Australian house prices will fall by 40%.</p>
<p>Asked by Peter Swizter how long before house prices fall 40%, Keen says five years.</p>
<p>After the GFC he was tipping a similar housing outcome.</p>
<p>He says that day is nearing, as house prices in Sydney are down 14.5% from their July 2017 high, which is their worst fall since the early 1980s recession.</p>
<p>Melbourne prices are down 10.9% from their November 2017 highs, which also is their worst fall in the period since 1980.</p>
<p>Keen, who now resides in Amsterdam after teaching at the University of Kingston in London until recently, maintains that house prices are bound to fall 40%.</p>
<p>He blames the Reserve Bank, claiming it’s the most “brain dead central bank on the planet", and says APRA and the Royal Commission's restrictive bank lending impact will be behind the fall.</p>
<p>Keen says it will be a nightmare for house prices on nationally given household debt compared to our total production of goods and services (or gross domestic product - GDP) is the second highest in the world, only behind Switzerland. </p>
<p>Household debt compared to GDP is at 200% - the highest ever for Australia.</p>
<p>“The RBA and mainstream economists don’t understand the role of credit,” Keen said.</p>
<p>He compares us to the USA which, as a consequence of the GFC of 2008, where there was 39.8% fall in house prices.</p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Professor Steve Keen says Australian house prices will fall 40% within five years

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<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/10/ebook-optimal1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Economists and property experts were tipping price growth across nearly all of Australia's capital cities heading into 2018.</p>
<p>Then as Autumn markets disappointed vendors, the expects thought they should alter their predictions.</p>
<p>With falling house prices, out of cycle home loan rate rises, there's plenty to talk about in property circles this spring.</p>
<p>Enjoy our free e-book on what you need to know about the property market and what's yet to come.</p>
<p>{rsform 99}</p>
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Free eBook: Soft landing or crash? What next for house prices?

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<div>Douglas Driscoll CEO of Starr Partners estimates there are likely further fall in property prices, as some areas cool, but firmly believes the market will not crash.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>He has been seeing a slowdown in the market in some areas as is to be expected, but other areas are still doing extremely well, and he believes reports of a crash are being blow out of proportion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Mr Driscoll said that “There has been talk of the market slowing, but 4.4 per cent over 12 months isn’t much and if I were being cynical, it’s not inconceivable that property prices might fall another 10 per cent."</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"The ingredients just aren’t there for a market crash, Whether they’re buying or selling, owner occupiers shouldn’t necessarily hold off."</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Fearmongering certainly doesn’t help and ultimately creates a wait-and-see mentality”, commented Mr Driscoll.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Douglas says that a crash simply wont happen because of a number of factors.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Housing stock levels are strong, interest rates are low, and it is only a matter of time before they rise.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>APRA has relaxed measures for investors, immigration levels are high and the skilled workers that are arriving will want to get their foot on the property ladder.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>He added that he believes the current fear-mongering is more about the potential lack of profits that property might deliver over the next few years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>John McGrath agrees the <a href="/news/sydney-and-melbourne-property-markets-wont-crash-in-2018-john-mcgrath">Sydney and Melbourne property markets won't crash in 2018</a>.</div>
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Douglas Driscoll, real estate CEO says property market is not headed for a crash

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<p>Expert observer</p>
<p>Australian capital city home prices fell 0.2% in March, their fifth monthly fall in a row. This has brought annual growth down to 0.8% from 11.4% in May last year. Most of the recent weakness relates to Sydney and to a less extent Melbourne.</p>
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<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/10/slowing.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a></p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/10/slowing.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
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<p>This is unusual in that property price downturns are usually preceded by significant interest rate increases. Consistent with the fall in Sydney and Melbourne property prices, auction clearance rates and home sales have also fallen.</p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/10/clearance.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
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<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/10/clearance.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span>How far will prices will drop? Will the weakness spread to other cities? And what will it mean for the broader economy? </span></p>
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<p><span>Australia’s Achilles heel – the risk of a crash </span></p>
<p><span>With prices falling in Sydney and Melbourne some see this as the start of a crash. There is good reason to be concerned: </span></p>
<p><span>• </span><span>Real capital city house prices are 27% above their long-term trend (see the next chart) and are at the high end of OECD countries in terms of the ratio of prices to income and rents. </span></p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/10/trend.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/10/trend.jpg" alt=""></p>
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<p><span>The surge in prices relative to income since the mid-1990s has gone hand in hand with a surge in the ratio of household debt to income that has taken it to the top end of OECD countries. </span></p>
<p><span>• </span><span>With a long period of strong prices and low mortgage rates has come some deterioration in lending standards with the share of new interest only loans reaching around 45% in 2015 and concerns about the reliability of borrowers’ income and living expense assessments when they take out loans. </span></p>
<p><span>• </span><span>Finally, there has been a surge in the supply of apartments, notably in Sydney evident in the high number of residential cranes in use, raising concerns about oversupply. </span></p>
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<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/10/crane.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/10/crane.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span>However, a crash remains unlikely </span></p>
<p><span>While crash calls and stories of mortgage stress are common, they have been repeated endlessly over the last 15 years. But, a crash (say a 20% national average price fall) remains unlikely: </span></p>
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<p><span>First, the real driver of high home prices and their persistence has been that, thanks to tight development controls and lagging infrastructure, the supply of dwellings has not kept pace with population driven demand. Over the last decade annual population growth has averaged about 150,000 above what it was over the decade to the mid-2000s, which would require roughly an extra 50,000 new homes per year. But it’s only recently that supply has caught up with the pick-up in population growth. And population growth remains very strong. </span></p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/10/construction.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/10/construction.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span>Consistent with this average capital city vacancy rates are at or below their long-term averages, notably in Sydney. Secondly, while </span>mortgage stress is a risk: there has been a sharp reduction in interest only loans since APRA strengthened lending standards; debt servicing payments as a share of income have actually fallen slightly over the last decade and Census data shows that the share of owner occupier households with a mortgage for which debt servicing is above 30% of income has fallen from 28% in 2011 to around 20%; a significant number of households with a mortgage are ahead on their repayments; and banks non-performing loans remain low. While there has been some deterioration in lending standards it does not appear to be anything like that seen with NINJA (no income, no job, no assets) loans in the US prior to the GFC.</p>
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<p><span>Finally, it is dangerous to generalise. Property prices have surged in Sydney and Melbourne but have fallen in Perth and Darwin and have seen only moderate growth in other capitals. </span></p>
<p><span>To see a property crash we probably need much higher interest rates or unemployment (neither of which are expected) or a continuation of recent high construction for several years (which is unlikely as approvals have cooled from their 2016 highs). </span></p>
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<p><span>Outlook </span></p>
<p><span>A further tightening in lending standards as banks get tougher on borrowers’ income and living expense levels along with rising supply and more realistic capital growth expectations by home buyers will see Sydney and Melbourne property prices </span>fall another 5% or so this year with further falls likely next year. </p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/10/downturn.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
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<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/10/downturn.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span>Adelaide and Canberra, but it may pick up a bit in Brisbane thanks to stronger population growth and the boom in Hobart has a way to go yet. </span></p>
<p><span>Regional centres are likely to provide relatively faster capital growth reflecting weaker supply and offering more attractive rental yields (around 1.5 percentage points higher than in cities). Units are at greater risk given surging supply, but so far house prices have slowed more in Sydney and Melbourne. </span></p>
<p><span>The property cycle and the economy </span></p>
<p><span>A slowdown in the housing cycle can affect the broader economy via slowing dwelling construction, negative wealth effects on consumer spending and via the banks if mortgage defaults rise. However, as things currently stand the drag from housing construction is likely to be minimal – building approvals don’t point to a collapse in new construction (see the next chart) and it looks like alterations and additions will rise, negative wealth effects will weigh on consumers but not dramatically if we are right, and in the absence of a property price crash the impact on the banks will be manageable. Finally, other sectors of the economy are taking over from housing, eg business investment and state capital works, as being growth drivers. </span></p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/10/appr.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a></p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/10/appr.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span>Implications for investors </span></p>
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<p>There are several implications for investors:</p>
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<p><span>• </span><span>Firstly, over the very long term residential property adjusted </span>for costs has had a similar return to Australian shares (see next chart). Its low correlation with shares, lower volatility but lower liquidity makes it a good portfolio diversifier. So, there is clearly a role for property in investors’ portfolios. </p>
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<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/10/assets.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a></p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/10/assets.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span>Secondly, there remains a case to be cautious regarding housing as an investment destination for now. It is expensive on all metrics and offers very low income (rental) yields compared to other growth assets. This means a housing investor is more dependent on capital growth. </span></p>
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<p><span>Thirdly, these comments refer to Australian housing overall but it’s dangerous to generalise. Other cities and regional property are far more attractive than Sydney &amp; Melbourne. </span></p>
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<p><span> <span class="s1"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author"><em>SHANE OLIVER</em></a></span><span class="s2"><em> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at </em><a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home"><span class="s1"><em>AMP Capital</em></span></a><em> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.</em></span></span></p>
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soliver-smf6LQXgW9

Falling prices in Sydney and Melbourne - is this the crash?

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<p>A record number of new apartments set to hit the market this year in capital cities was unlikely to trigger a property price collapse, Bank of America-Merill Lynch economists say.</p>
<p>The already moderating property market will instead lead to fewer housing starts which will mean there was a prospect of an undersupply by 2020.</p>
<p>"The stage is being set for the next property cycle," BAML economists Tony Morriss and Alexandra Veroude suggested in a recent research note.</p>
<p>"Forget oversupply," they write, urging their clients to look beyond this year's headlines.</p>
<p>There are "risks of undersupply brewing" with building approvals having peaked in 2015.</p>
<p>The current assumed abundance of new housing will flip to scarcity by 2020, the BAML economists advised according to a report in The Australian Financial Review.</p>
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<p>"With population growth expected to keep underlying housing demand robust, we see underlying demand outpacing supply in Australia's largest housing markets, New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, from 2020," they wrote.</p>
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<p>"Laws of supply and demand suggest that house price pressures would be expected to build from this time."</p>
<p>"Our analysis supports our view that any oversupply now, with Brisbane of greatest concern, should not create large imbalances over an extended period and present as a risk to financial stability."</p>
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<p>"To date, settlement defaults remain low and, given our analysis, we do not expect settlement defaults to rise significantly - particularly in an environment where the economic outlook is strengthening and the labour market is tightening," they wrote.</p>
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Assumed apartment abundance could turn to undersupply, but Brisbane a worry: BAML

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<p>Melbourne and Sydney housing prices face a one-in-five risk of price correction, with JP Morgan saying there's little chance of a correction in the next five years.</p>
<p>It ranks as 19% for Melbourne and 18% for Sydney, JP Morgan economist Henry St John said after prices have been rising faster against wages.</p>
<p>The chance of steep price falls in Brisbane or Adelaide is rated at 8%, while the odds of a further 15%-plus slide in Perth prices is 7%.</p>
<p>The ABC advised St John arrived at his estimates by examining not only absolute price growth but also price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios to calculate how far out of whack the current real estate market is with historical averages.</p>
<p>"The fact that those valuation ratios in Melbourne haven't ever really had a deep pull-back means price gains have persistently dominated income and rental rate growth for a very long history," St John said.</p>
<p>This time last year the JP Morgan team forecast "major risks" for the listed property companies in Brisbane and Melbourne apartment settlements during 2017, which did not happen.</p>
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