<article data-scroll-anchor="true" data-testid="conversation-turn-2" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:177aabf5-72ef-476e-8c5a-366295e4030a-0" dir="auto" tabindex="-1">
<p data-end="186" data-start="59">Developer JL Place is ensuring buyers at its Veil Brighton project have all the right ingredients to make a confident purchase.</p>

<p data-end="636" data-start="188">To instil confidence in the market, the development was launched when construction was already well underway, helping to alleviate any concerns about the project proceeding. For a limited time, JL Place is now offering buyers the opportunity to secure a townhouse with a five per cent deposit. The initiative aims to assist those who may not have enough savings for a 10 per cent deposit but have sufficient funds to meet bank lending requirements at completion.</p>

<p data-end="746" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="638">Several of the nine two- and three-bedroom townhouses, tucked away off the tree-lined Rooding Street, have already been snapped up, a sign of demand for&nbsp;low-maintenance, owner-occupier-focused housing in Brighton, which continues to outpace supply, particularly for homes that retain scale, privacy, and outdoor space.</p>
</article>

<p>Townhouses account for a relatively small share of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/brighton-vic-3186">Brighton</a>’s housing mix, yet they have become increasingly sought after by downsizers and local buyers seeking to remain in the suburb without the upkeep of a standalone home. At Veil, each residence is arranged across two levels and anchored by a generous private courtyard, allowing natural light to penetrate deep into the interiors while maintaining a strong sense of separation from the street.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7877 project_image_fid=355754]</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/schmidt-pang-architects">Schmidt &amp; Pang</a>, the architecture has been intentionally restrained, presenting as a single, cohesive residence from Rooding Street rather than a conventional multi-dwelling development. Clean lines and robust materiality are softened by layered landscaping by John Patrick Landscape Architects, reinforcing the project’s emphasis on privacy and integration within its residential context.</p>

<p>Interiors favour a neutral, durable palette suited to long-term living, with oak flooring, grey-toned tiles, natural stone surfaces, and brushed nickel finishes throughout. Kitchens are equipped with Miele appliances and stone benchtops, while several homes include a ground-floor bedroom or flexible study, supporting accessibility and adaptability over time.</p>

<p>Sustainability has been embedded into the design, with each townhouse targeting a 6-star energy rating supported by double glazing, natural ventilation, high-grade insulation, LED lighting, and water-efficient fittings. Secure basement parking, bicycle storage, water tanks, and NBN readiness further position the homes for contemporary, lower-impact living.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7877 project_image_fid=355771]</p>

<p>The introduction of the five per cent deposit structure aims to improve buyer financial flexibility while securing a foothold in Brighton ahead of completion, which is scheduled for late 2026. With prices starting from $1.529 million, the development has already recorded early sales momentum, with two residences secured prior to formal marketing.</p>

<p>Veil Brighton adds to JL PLACE’s growing portfolio of low-scale, architecturally driven residential projects, delivered in collaboration with builder <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/jeniton">JENITON</a>, whose involvement brings a further layer of delivery confidence to the project as construction continues on site.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7877]</p>


Joel Robinson

JL Place offers five per cent deposits at Veil Brighton townhouses

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lindsay-bennelong-developments">Lindsay Bennelong Developments</a> has reached a key milestone at Delano Crows Nest, with the boutique residential project now officially complete following strata plan registration and the issuing of the occupation certificate.</p>

<p>The completion marks the delivery of 81 residences at 41 Falcon Street, concluding a carefully scaled infill project designed to bridge <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/crows-nest-nsw-2065">Crows Nest</a>’s lively village centre with its surrounding heritage streets.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ajc-architects">AJC Architects</a>, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/delano-crows-nest-27-57-falcon-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Delano</a> is arranged across three low-rise buildings, incorporating a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom apartments alongside a limited number of townhomes addressing Hayberry Lane. The architectural approach draws on the area’s Art Deco lineage, reinterpreted through contemporary detailing and framed by landscaped communal gardens.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134072 project_image_fid=357194]</p>

<p>Peter Campbell, Managing Director of Lindsay Bennelong Developments, said the project’s completion reflected a long-held focus on delivering housing that sits comfortably within its local context.</p>

<p>“Reaching completion at Delano is an important moment for our team and for the purchasers who will soon take ownership of their homes,” Campbell said. “From the outset, the priority was to deliver a building that respects the character of Crows Nest while offering residents a high-quality, considered place to live.”</p>

<p>The development steps down in height from a central seven-storey apartment building to lower-scale forms along Falcon Street, with townhomes reinforcing the established residential grain. Internally, residences feature herringbone engineered timber flooring, natural stone benchtops paired with integrated Miele appliances, and double-glazed windows throughout.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134072 project_image_fid=3331]</p>

<p>Sustainability and liveability were embedded throughout the design, with cross-ventilation incorporated across apartments, energy-efficient fixtures specified, and water-harvesting systems supporting landscaped areas. Shared amenities include a residents’ gym, an electric vehicle for communal use, and a central lawn with barbecue and seating zones .</p>

<p>Delano’s location places residents approximately 450 metres from the Crows Nest Metro Station, which has significantly improved connectivity to Sydney’s CBD and wider metropolitan network. Everyday amenity is also close at hand, with Woolworths, cafés, dining, and local retail clustered within a short walk, reinforcing the suburb’s village appeal.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134072 project_image_fid=357191]</p>

<p>“Our focus has always been on securing premium sites, so we were excited by the opportunity to reimagine this significant location,” said Campbell. “With the new Crows Nest Metro Station now operational, this sought-after locale is firmly in the spotlight."&nbsp;</p>

<p>Campbell said collaboration with the local community and consultant team was central to the project’s delivery.</p>

<p>"We worked closely with the community throughout the planning process to ensure the design respected and enhanced the neighbourhood's character,” he said. "I’m confident that we have collaboratively achieved a place to live poised to become an important part of Crows Nest's rich and diverse architectural fabric."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134072]</p>


Delano Crows Nest reaches completion as Lindsay Bennelong prepares for resident handover

<p data-end="347" data-start="141">Australia's leading visionary placemakers,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/walker-corporation">Walker&nbsp;Corporation</a>, has unveiled an exclusive collection of four dual-level penthouses at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/sol-by-walker-maroochydore-first-avenue-maroochydore-qld-4558">SOL by Walker</a>, redefining luxury living within the heart of the vibrant Maroochydore City Centre.</p>

<p data-end="767" data-start="349">Positioned atop the precinct’s tallest residential tower, The Penthouse Collection crowns SOL’s first stage and comprises four three and four-bedroom + MPR residences designed to capture uninterrupted views across the Coral Sea, Maroochy River, Point Cartwright and the Sunshine Coast Hinterland.</p>

<p data-end="767" data-start="349">[smartcode_project:default project_id=147777 project_image_fid=358857]</p>

<p>Each penthouse is arranged across two levels, with upper-level multi-purpose spaces opening to expansive wraparound terraces and private rooftop plunge pools, a rare configuration in the local market that blends apartment convenience with the scale and privacy more typically associated with standalone homes. Private lift access and generous internal areas further reinforce the collection’s owner-occupier focus.</p>

<p>Interiors have been curated by Melbourne-based studio <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a>, with material palettes drawing directly from the Sunshine Coast’s coastal and hinterland landscapes. Founder Miriam Fanning said the design approach was grounded in a sense of place and longevity.</p>

<p>“Our approach aimed to capture the essence of the Sunshine Coast and the enviable ease of coastal life,” Fanning said. “The material palette draws from the changing tones of the landscape, layered with brushed metals, textured ceramic tiles and natural timber to create a sense of warmth and permanence.”</p>

<p data-end="1718" data-start="1494">[smartcode_project:default project_id=147777 project_image_fid=358858]</p>

<p>Across the residences, kitchens are appointed with Onde Rossa marble benchtops, Verde Atlantis marble accents and premium Miele and Sub-Zero appliances, while bathrooms are finished in limestone with mosaic detailing. Terracotta marble defines entry spaces and private wine cellars, underscoring the bespoke nature of the interiors.</p>

<p>Walker Corporation Group Executive of Development Peter Saba said the exclusive collection reflects shifting demand for high-quality, low-maintenance homes that do not compromise on space, privacy or outlook.</p>

<p>“Our Penthouse Collection perfectly captures the essence of Maroochydore’s coastal beauty and lifestyle, setting a new benchmark for luxury city living on the Sunshine Coast with panoramic views of the region,” Saba said.</p>

<p data-end="2134" data-start="2066">[smartcode_project:default project_id=147777 project_image_fid=3393]</p>

<p>“These residences cater to the growing mix of people choosing to live and invest on the Sunshine Coast, adding to the diversity of high-quality homes available at SOL by Walker. The strong waitlist and near sell-out of the first SOL tower reinforce confidence in the region’s transformation into a modern, connected coastal city.”</p>

<p>SOL by Walker forms part of the broader Maroochydore City Centre project, being delivered by Walker in partnership with Sunshine Coast Council and SunCentral. Once complete, the precinct will introduce new residential, commercial and retail offerings to the city centre, supported by major public investment ahead of the 2032 Olympic Games.</p>

<p>Construction of SOL’s first tower is well underway, with completion targeted for late 2027, while Tower 2 is expected to follow in early 2028.</p>

<p data-end="2618" data-start="2569">[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=147777]</p>


Rare new Maroochydore penthouses revealed at SOL by Walker

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mirvac">Mirvac</a> has been developing residential property across Australia for more than five decades. Over the past 10 years, the ASX-listed developer has placed a strong emphasis on sustainability, championed through its This Changes Everything initiative, while more recently diversifying its portfolio with an expansion into the build-to-rent sector.</p>

<p>Central to Mirvac’s approach in recent years has been a focus on how residents will not only enjoy their apartments, but how well each development supports day-to-day lifestyle needs. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/trielle-at-yarra-s-edge-docklands-16-point-park-crescent-docklands-vic-3008">Trielle</a>, Mirvac’s latest instalment within its Yarra’s Edge precinct on the Docklands waterfront, is arguably the developer’s most amenity-rich project to date.</p>

<p>With extensive facilities designed for both work and leisure, residents could technically spend an entire day within the tower without needing to leave. Two dedicated spaces cater specifically to working from home: The Biblioteca and The Mills Place Work From Home Pods.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=114216 project_image_fid=3781]</p>

<p>The Biblioteca, a library designed for quiet work and reading, occupies a peaceful corner of Trielle overlooking the Promenade Grove and Point Park. The Mills Place Work From Home Pods, located on the ground floor, offer bookable office spaces and work pods available for short sessions or full-day use.</p>

<p>With the working day covered, the building’s amenity extends seamlessly into leisure and downtime, just a lift ride away.</p>

<p>One of the most striking inclusions in Trielle’s extensive amenity offering is The Oasis Wellness Club, a verdant urban rainforest complete with a stream-inspired water feature, located seven storeys above the Yarra’s Edge promenade. Designed in collaboration with luxury spa expert Naomi Gregory, The Oasis delivers a Scandinavian-inspired wellness experience, offering residents a tranquil, resort-like setting designed to accommodate spa-style treatments and contrast hydrotherapy as part of daily rituals.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=114216 project_image_fid=360958]</p>

<p>The wellness offering also includes a biophilic gym equipped with state-of-the-art equipment, along with a yoga and Pilates studio, sauna, hot magnesium pool, cold plunge, 25-metre indoor pool and a spa.</p>

<p>Trielle also places a strong emphasis on socialising. Among the most indulgent spaces is The Salone Piano Bar, an intimate lounge featuring richly textured interiors and north-facing river views. Positioned just 14 metres from the river’s edge, the space invites residents to unwind to the sounds of a self-playing piano.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=114216 project_image_fid=3777]</p>

<p>Adjacent to the piano bar is the Chef’s Table dining room, designed for private dinner parties and featuring a striking natural stone table and an impressive wine fridge. Residents can book the space via the building’s dedicated concierge service or through the integrated building app.</p>

<p>Additional amenities include a cinema room, games room with adjoining teppanyaki barbecue and alfresco space, golf simulator, sunken fire pit, and even a dedicated dog wash bay. Mirvac’s in-house construction arm is tracking toward a mid-2027 completion, delivering what is set to be one of Melbourne’s most comprehensive and impressive residential amenity offerings.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=114216 project_image_fid=361041]</p>

<p>The strong response from buyers to Trielle’s facilities has influenced Mirvac’s broader Melbourne pipeline. At its nearby development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-albertine-by-mirvac-melbourne-31-queens-lane-melbourne-vic-3004">The Albertine</a>, located just off St Kilda Road opposite Albert Park Lake, the Mirvac Design team has again placed a strong emphasis on lifestyle amenity, carefully scaled to suit the building’s density.</p>

<p>At The Albertine, health and wellness take centre stage through The Circadian Club, a suite of well-being-focused facilities including a swimming pool, magnesium spa, sauna, cutting-edge gymnasium, and yoga studio, all designed to support residents’ physical and mental health.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=138659 project_image_fid=361042]</p>

<p>Residents of The Albertine are offered an elevated experience with The Elysian Room, a private dining room located on Level 10. Flowing seamlessly onto The Terrace, this outdoor retreat captures panoramic Melbourne views and is wrapped in lush, ASPECT Studios–designed landscaping of native plants and ferns, forming a serene garden oasis above the city.</p>

<p>Mirvac topped out The Albertine in late 2025 and is targeting completion of the 98-apartment development in mid-2026.</p>


Mirvac’s amenity-first approach reshapes apartment living in Melbourne

<p>The first tranche of residents has moved into <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/highett-common-37-graham-road-highett-vic-3190">Highett Common</a>, Victoria’s first medium-density, Net Zero-targeted masterplanned community in the heart of Bayside.</p>

<p>Developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sunkin-property-group">Sunkin Property Group</a> has completed the first two buildings, North Lane and Park House, within the landmark 9.3-hectare precinct. Four hectares of the well-connected site have been reserved for public parkland, including one hectare dedicated to a children’s playground and social spaces, and a further three hectares retained as a conservation reserve to protect native species and enhance the local environment.</p>

<p>Sunkin’s construction arm, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/sk-construction">SK Construction</a>, is now progressing the next stage of residences as part of the Mews Collection, as the team prepares to launch the most boutique building within the neighbourhood. The latest release, Habitat, comprises just 57 one, two, and three-bedroom apartments, with pricing starting from under $600,000. Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/clarke-hopkins-clarke">Clarke Hopkins Clarke</a>, Habitat has been conceived as a refined expression of bayside living, placing nature, community and design longevity at its core.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108019 project_image_fid=351719]</p>

<p>“Habitat at Highett Common is an exclusive offering meticulously designed to reflect the character of the local Bayside area,” said Scott Jessop, Head of Sales &amp; Marketing at Sunkin Property Group. “It’s a highly considered release within a precinct that continues to gain momentum on every front.”</p>

<p>Connection to nature has guided the architectural response, with apartments oriented to maximise natural light, outlooks and indoor–outdoor flow. Balconies and terraces extend living spaces into the surrounding landscape, reinforcing the project’s strong relationship with its parkland setting.</p>

<p>“Apartments have been designed to maximise this connection to nature from indoor to outdoor spaces through adjacent balconies and terraces, and proximity to public parks and open spaces,” said Clarke Hopkins Clarke Partner Toby Lachlan. “Highett Common as a whole was designed to maximise connection to nature and a Bayside lifestyle, and Habitat is really at the heart of that.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108019 project_image_fid=331187]</p>

<p>Habitat also occupies a central social position within the precinct, directly connected to Highett Common’s new library and café. These community amenities have been designed to encourage daily interaction and foster a genuine neighbourhood feel.</p>

<p>Interiors continue the theme of warmth and longevity, with light-filled layouts, timber detailing and carefully selected materials. Buyers can personalise their homes through a range of customisation options, while kitchens act as the centrepiece of each apartment. Options include sculptural or freestanding island benches, paired with Bosch appliances and induction cooktops.</p>

<p>Clarke Hopkins Clarke Associate Interior Designer Michelle Cavicchiolo said the interiors were designed with a timeless sensibility. “The materials, fixtures and fittings have been selected for longevity,” she said. “All of these features, along with functional apartment layouts, contribute to a premium aesthetic.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108019 project_image_fid=300055]</p>

<p>Beyond Habitat, residents will enjoy access to a growing suite of shared amenities across Highett Common, including indoor and outdoor pools, a gym, wellness areas, cinema and resident lounge. Highett Station is just two minutes away, providing easy access to Melbourne’s CBD, while the cafés, shops and dining along Highett Road add everyday convenience.</p>

<p>For prospective buyers, the timing is compelling. Off-the-plan purchasers may be eligible for stamp duty savings of up to $85,000, while changes to the First Home Owners Guarantee Scheme from October 2025, including higher price thresholds and the removal of income caps, are expected to broaden access to Bayside living.</p>

<p>“There’s never been a better time to take advantage of our newest stage,” Jessop said. “With a wealth of customisation available, buyers can truly create the home of their dreams in one of Melbourne’s most desirable middle-ring Bayside suburbs.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108019 project_image_fid=300066]</p>

<p>The arrival of the first residents has been timed to coincide with the launch of the Highett Common Connect app, reinforcing the precinct’s strong focus on connection and community from day one. Designed to simplify daily life, the app brings building information, shared amenities and community activity into one easy-to-use platform. From booking facilities and receiving building updates to accessing move-in guides, safety procedures and appliance manuals, residents have everything they need at their fingertips.</p>

<p>The app also supports social connection, allowing residents to view and join community events, organise interest groups, and engage through a community hub and marketplace. Practical features such as maintenance reporting, real-time notifications and a shared calendar help streamline everyday living and support a more connected community.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108019]</p>


Highett Common takes shape as first residents move in

Property Crash

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<p>RBA liaison believes it can see through the downturn in construction to the other side.</p>
<p>Below Scutty reports on the latest AiG construction index gauge:</p>
<p class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XgQZzrxcIIM/XenLm_8jMII/AAAAAAAAzOk/ysAVnkMDPoMCnM41cdRqrZxiiHZVAFM9QCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/AIG1.jpg" width="640" height="136" data-original-height="142" data-original-width="663"></p>
<p class="separator">Apartments (37), engineering (33.3) and commercial (43.7) all came in with very contractionary readings. </p>
<p class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-l136Sd1V4sw/XenLm0vwVNI/AAAAAAAAzOo/L8SgToObOWQzHb4nrfOYEQtYB-oLGwlpACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/AIG2.jpg" width="640" height="204" data-original-height="513" data-original-width="1600"></p>
<p class="separator">Perhaps house building is due to lift soon, but otherwise, it's another stinker.</p>
<p class="separator"><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. </em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Construction continues crashing: Pete Wargent

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<p>It’s hard to read a paper at the moment without finding an array of negative headlines about Sydney’s declining property market.  While media reports paint an overwhelming gloomy picture for the market, a closer look at the data tells a more nuanced story.</p>
<h2>Sydney’s top end dragging down the averages</h2>
<p>The Sydney residential property market as a whole recorded negative growth in the first quarter and for the year to April 2018.</p>
<p>However, the latest data from CoreLogic shows this result was largely driven by the premium end of the market.</p>
<p>The most affordable 20% of dwelling values recorded gains in these periods.</p>
<p>In fact, the more affordable half of Sydney dwelling values recorded an uptick in prices when averaged out over the year to April 2018. However, a pullback at the more expensive end caused the overall average to be weighed down.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/08/shutterstock_343792502.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The top end of Sydney dwelling values ($1.4m-$1.8m+) experienced the most significant decline. These properties suffered a substantial 7.2% decline over the 12 months to April 2018 which dragged the average down to -3.4% for the market overall.</p>
<p>Affordable property at the medium-low price ranges (under $875K) has been far more resilient.</p>
<p>“We often tell our investors to read the numbers, and understand the data, not the sensational headlines, and this is a typical case in point,” said Ironfish Head of Property, William Mitchell.</p>
<p>“Sydney has been an incredibly hot market so we do expect the overall market to trend sideways for a period. However, as the data demonstrates, there are sub-markets which can outperform the wider market, and these are the markets that we are looking for when it comes to selecting property to recommend to our investors.</p>
<p>“Though there will be a pullback in prices in pockets of Sydney, owners need to remember the market has increased significantly since the boom began in 2011, so a small adjustment is not a ‘bust’.”</p>
<h2>Melbourne property market continues to perform</h2>
<p>Like Sydney, the headlines for Melbourne property have focussed on the negative; specifically, Melbourne’s marginal decline (-0.7%) in residential property values for the first quarter of 2018.</p>
<p>Yet the data reveals that the Melbourne market has continued to perform, with the vast majority of price points recording positive growth over the 12 months to April 2018.</p>
<p>The affordable end of the market again recorded the largest gains. Properties priced $803K and under recorded an average gain of 9.87% in the year to April 2018 – a very strong result.</p>
<p>Only the most expensive dwellings (i.e. the top 10% of prices) recorded a negative gain in Q1.</p>
<h4>The return of first home buyers </h4>
<div id="ig-8773e3f7-dd3f-1231-f65f-9208c80a9c5b" class="infogram-embed" data-id="8d184527-937a-4799-b7df-1c93ee767c42" data-type="interactive" data-title="First Home Buyers, All States " data-processed="1"> <iframe title="First Home Buyers, All States " src="https://e.infogram.com/8d184527-937a-4799-b7df-1c93ee767c42?src=embed#async_embed" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" width="320" height="240"></iframe>
</div>
<p>The outperformance of more affordable product has been much attributed to more first home buyers returning to the market. This is a trend we’ve seen not just in Sydney and Melbourne, but also across all the 5 major capital cities.</p>
<h4><strong>First Home Buyer mortgages on the rise</strong></h4>
<p>In Melbourne, strong population growth coupled with the increasing appeal of apartment living has further underpinned demand for the affordable end of the market.</p>
<p>Melbourne apartments recorded the strongest capital growth (6.8%) compared to apartments in any of the other 5 major capital cities for the year to April 2018.</p>
<p>Given Melbourne house prices have increased up to 70% since mid-2013, apartments continue to offer a significantly more affordable alternative to buyers.  At current median values, a Melbourne apartment is about 33.9% cheaper than purchasing a standalone house – providing a very strong incentive.</p>
<p>“With the tighter lending environment at the moment, affordability is definitely the flavour of the month. As a result, we are seeing more buyers turning to apartments and this market is expected to perform well in the medium term,” Mr Mitchell said.</p>
<p><span> </span></p>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Is the property market crashing? 

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<p>Professor Steve Keen is back predicting that Australian house prices will fall by 40%.</p>
<p>Asked by Peter Swizter how long before house prices fall 40%, Keen says five years.</p>
<p>After the GFC he was tipping a similar housing outcome.</p>
<p>He says that day is nearing, as house prices in Sydney are down 14.5% from their July 2017 high, which is their worst fall since the early 1980s recession.</p>
<p>Melbourne prices are down 10.9% from their November 2017 highs, which also is their worst fall in the period since 1980.</p>
<p>Keen, who now resides in Amsterdam after teaching at the University of Kingston in London until recently, maintains that house prices are bound to fall 40%.</p>
<p>He blames the Reserve Bank, claiming it’s the most “brain dead central bank on the planet", and says APRA and the Royal Commission's restrictive bank lending impact will be behind the fall.</p>
<p>Keen says it will be a nightmare for house prices on nationally given household debt compared to our total production of goods and services (or gross domestic product - GDP) is the second highest in the world, only behind Switzerland. </p>
<p>Household debt compared to GDP is at 200% - the highest ever for Australia.</p>
<p>“The RBA and mainstream economists don’t understand the role of credit,” Keen said.</p>
<p>He compares us to the USA which, as a consequence of the GFC of 2008, where there was 39.8% fall in house prices.</p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Professor Steve Keen says Australian house prices will fall 40% within five years

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<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/9/10/ebook-optimal1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Economists and property experts were tipping price growth across nearly all of Australia's capital cities heading into 2018.</p>
<p>Then as Autumn markets disappointed vendors, the expects thought they should alter their predictions.</p>
<p>With falling house prices, out of cycle home loan rate rises, there's plenty to talk about in property circles this spring.</p>
<p>Enjoy our free e-book on what you need to know about the property market and what's yet to come.</p>
<p>{rsform 99}</p>
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Free eBook: Soft landing or crash? What next for house prices?

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<div>Douglas Driscoll CEO of Starr Partners estimates there are likely further fall in property prices, as some areas cool, but firmly believes the market will not crash.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>He has been seeing a slowdown in the market in some areas as is to be expected, but other areas are still doing extremely well, and he believes reports of a crash are being blow out of proportion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Mr Driscoll said that “There has been talk of the market slowing, but 4.4 per cent over 12 months isn’t much and if I were being cynical, it’s not inconceivable that property prices might fall another 10 per cent."</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"The ingredients just aren’t there for a market crash, Whether they’re buying or selling, owner occupiers shouldn’t necessarily hold off."</div>
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<div>"Fearmongering certainly doesn’t help and ultimately creates a wait-and-see mentality”, commented Mr Driscoll.</div>
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<div>Douglas says that a crash simply wont happen because of a number of factors.</div>
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<div>Housing stock levels are strong, interest rates are low, and it is only a matter of time before they rise.</div>
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<div>APRA has relaxed measures for investors, immigration levels are high and the skilled workers that are arriving will want to get their foot on the property ladder.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>He added that he believes the current fear-mongering is more about the potential lack of profits that property might deliver over the next few years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>John McGrath agrees the <a href="/news/sydney-and-melbourne-property-markets-wont-crash-in-2018-john-mcgrath">Sydney and Melbourne property markets won't crash in 2018</a>.</div>
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Douglas Driscoll, real estate CEO says property market is not headed for a crash

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<p>Expert observer</p>
<p>Australian capital city home prices fell 0.2% in March, their fifth monthly fall in a row. This has brought annual growth down to 0.8% from 11.4% in May last year. Most of the recent weakness relates to Sydney and to a less extent Melbourne.</p>
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<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/10/slowing.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a></p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/10/slowing.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
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<p>This is unusual in that property price downturns are usually preceded by significant interest rate increases. Consistent with the fall in Sydney and Melbourne property prices, auction clearance rates and home sales have also fallen.</p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/10/clearance.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
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<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/10/clearance.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span>How far will prices will drop? Will the weakness spread to other cities? And what will it mean for the broader economy? </span></p>
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<p><span>Australia’s Achilles heel – the risk of a crash </span></p>
<p><span>With prices falling in Sydney and Melbourne some see this as the start of a crash. There is good reason to be concerned: </span></p>
<p><span>• </span><span>Real capital city house prices are 27% above their long-term trend (see the next chart) and are at the high end of OECD countries in terms of the ratio of prices to income and rents. </span></p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/10/trend.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/10/trend.jpg" alt=""></p>
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<p><span>The surge in prices relative to income since the mid-1990s has gone hand in hand with a surge in the ratio of household debt to income that has taken it to the top end of OECD countries. </span></p>
<p><span>• </span><span>With a long period of strong prices and low mortgage rates has come some deterioration in lending standards with the share of new interest only loans reaching around 45% in 2015 and concerns about the reliability of borrowers’ income and living expense assessments when they take out loans. </span></p>
<p><span>• </span><span>Finally, there has been a surge in the supply of apartments, notably in Sydney evident in the high number of residential cranes in use, raising concerns about oversupply. </span></p>
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<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/10/crane.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/10/crane.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span>However, a crash remains unlikely </span></p>
<p><span>While crash calls and stories of mortgage stress are common, they have been repeated endlessly over the last 15 years. But, a crash (say a 20% national average price fall) remains unlikely: </span></p>
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<p><span>First, the real driver of high home prices and their persistence has been that, thanks to tight development controls and lagging infrastructure, the supply of dwellings has not kept pace with population driven demand. Over the last decade annual population growth has averaged about 150,000 above what it was over the decade to the mid-2000s, which would require roughly an extra 50,000 new homes per year. But it’s only recently that supply has caught up with the pick-up in population growth. And population growth remains very strong. </span></p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/10/construction.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/10/construction.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span>Consistent with this average capital city vacancy rates are at or below their long-term averages, notably in Sydney. Secondly, while </span>mortgage stress is a risk: there has been a sharp reduction in interest only loans since APRA strengthened lending standards; debt servicing payments as a share of income have actually fallen slightly over the last decade and Census data shows that the share of owner occupier households with a mortgage for which debt servicing is above 30% of income has fallen from 28% in 2011 to around 20%; a significant number of households with a mortgage are ahead on their repayments; and banks non-performing loans remain low. While there has been some deterioration in lending standards it does not appear to be anything like that seen with NINJA (no income, no job, no assets) loans in the US prior to the GFC.</p>
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<p><span>Finally, it is dangerous to generalise. Property prices have surged in Sydney and Melbourne but have fallen in Perth and Darwin and have seen only moderate growth in other capitals. </span></p>
<p><span>To see a property crash we probably need much higher interest rates or unemployment (neither of which are expected) or a continuation of recent high construction for several years (which is unlikely as approvals have cooled from their 2016 highs). </span></p>
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<p><span>Outlook </span></p>
<p><span>A further tightening in lending standards as banks get tougher on borrowers’ income and living expense levels along with rising supply and more realistic capital growth expectations by home buyers will see Sydney and Melbourne property prices </span>fall another 5% or so this year with further falls likely next year. </p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/10/downturn.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
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<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/10/downturn.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span>Adelaide and Canberra, but it may pick up a bit in Brisbane thanks to stronger population growth and the boom in Hobart has a way to go yet. </span></p>
<p><span>Regional centres are likely to provide relatively faster capital growth reflecting weaker supply and offering more attractive rental yields (around 1.5 percentage points higher than in cities). Units are at greater risk given surging supply, but so far house prices have slowed more in Sydney and Melbourne. </span></p>
<p><span>The property cycle and the economy </span></p>
<p><span>A slowdown in the housing cycle can affect the broader economy via slowing dwelling construction, negative wealth effects on consumer spending and via the banks if mortgage defaults rise. However, as things currently stand the drag from housing construction is likely to be minimal – building approvals don’t point to a collapse in new construction (see the next chart) and it looks like alterations and additions will rise, negative wealth effects will weigh on consumers but not dramatically if we are right, and in the absence of a property price crash the impact on the banks will be manageable. Finally, other sectors of the economy are taking over from housing, eg business investment and state capital works, as being growth drivers. </span></p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/10/appr.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a></p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/10/appr.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span>Implications for investors </span></p>
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<p>There are several implications for investors:</p>
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<p><span>• </span><span>Firstly, over the very long term residential property adjusted </span>for costs has had a similar return to Australian shares (see next chart). Its low correlation with shares, lower volatility but lower liquidity makes it a good portfolio diversifier. So, there is clearly a role for property in investors’ portfolios. </p>
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<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/10/assets.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a></p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/10/assets.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span>Secondly, there remains a case to be cautious regarding housing as an investment destination for now. It is expensive on all metrics and offers very low income (rental) yields compared to other growth assets. This means a housing investor is more dependent on capital growth. </span></p>
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<p><span>Thirdly, these comments refer to Australian housing overall but it’s dangerous to generalise. Other cities and regional property are far more attractive than Sydney &amp; Melbourne. </span></p>
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<p><span> <span class="s1"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author"><em>SHANE OLIVER</em></a></span><span class="s2"><em> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at </em><a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home"><span class="s1"><em>AMP Capital</em></span></a><em> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.</em></span></span></p>
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soliver-smf6LQXgW9

Falling prices in Sydney and Melbourne - is this the crash?

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<p>A record number of new apartments set to hit the market this year in capital cities was unlikely to trigger a property price collapse, Bank of America-Merill Lynch economists say.</p>
<p>The already moderating property market will instead lead to fewer housing starts which will mean there was a prospect of an undersupply by 2020.</p>
<p>"The stage is being set for the next property cycle," BAML economists Tony Morriss and Alexandra Veroude suggested in a recent research note.</p>
<p>"Forget oversupply," they write, urging their clients to look beyond this year's headlines.</p>
<p>There are "risks of undersupply brewing" with building approvals having peaked in 2015.</p>
<p>The current assumed abundance of new housing will flip to scarcity by 2020, the BAML economists advised according to a report in The Australian Financial Review.</p>
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<p>"With population growth expected to keep underlying housing demand robust, we see underlying demand outpacing supply in Australia's largest housing markets, New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, from 2020," they wrote.</p>
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<p>"Laws of supply and demand suggest that house price pressures would be expected to build from this time."</p>
<p>"Our analysis supports our view that any oversupply now, with Brisbane of greatest concern, should not create large imbalances over an extended period and present as a risk to financial stability."</p>
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<p>"To date, settlement defaults remain low and, given our analysis, we do not expect settlement defaults to rise significantly - particularly in an environment where the economic outlook is strengthening and the labour market is tightening," they wrote.</p>
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Assumed apartment abundance could turn to undersupply, but Brisbane a worry: BAML

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<p>Melbourne and Sydney housing prices face a one-in-five risk of price correction, with JP Morgan saying there's little chance of a correction in the next five years.</p>
<p>It ranks as 19% for Melbourne and 18% for Sydney, JP Morgan economist Henry St John said after prices have been rising faster against wages.</p>
<p>The chance of steep price falls in Brisbane or Adelaide is rated at 8%, while the odds of a further 15%-plus slide in Perth prices is 7%.</p>
<p>The ABC advised St John arrived at his estimates by examining not only absolute price growth but also price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios to calculate how far out of whack the current real estate market is with historical averages.</p>
<p>"The fact that those valuation ratios in Melbourne haven't ever really had a deep pull-back means price gains have persistently dominated income and rental rate growth for a very long history," St John said.</p>
<p>This time last year the JP Morgan team forecast "major risks" for the listed property companies in Brisbane and Melbourne apartment settlements during 2017, which did not happen.</p>
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