<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/capital-corporation">Capital Corporation</a> has announced that its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/lovedale-farm-1054-1184-wine-country-drive-lovedale-nsw-2325">Lovedale Farm</a> residential, resort and golf project has secured $24.6 million in sales in just three weeks since the opening of its display home, underscoring the appetite for premium lifestyle property in the Hunter Valley countryside.

The sales milestone has been driven by a diverse mix of buyers, including owner-occupiers and investors from Sydney, Newcastle and the local Hunter region, purchasing both land-only lots and house and land packages across the development.

<img alt="Lovedale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e173edc9-e60e-4f19-a060-9dc4421a3233" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/LovedaleFarm_20250215-1.jpg?VersionId=1LY6CvOaD.Dzrt8tWpWxXtPyfchixNIo" />

&nbsp;

The result builds on the momentum generated at the display home opening on 22 March, which attracted more than 460 attendees.

With house and land pricing from $1.14 million, Lovedale Farm continues to attract strong interest from buyers seeking a premium lifestyle offering at a compelling price point. The development’s vision, a championship golf course, future epicurean village and access to the Hunter Valley’s celebrated wine country, has resonated with a broad buyer profile, from first-time investors to those looking to make the move and call the Hunter Valley home.

<img alt="Lovedale Farm records $21.4 million in sales in three weeks" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b358e789-e1eb-40ed-8105-ed5c8297136f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/20260321LovedaleFarmDisplayHomeOpening--6.jpg?VersionId=6GUO8TNnxuELONrsM6n9imDB6oc82Bor" />

Jim Hunter, Managing Director of Capital Corporation said the response since opening the display home has been encouraging.

"To reach $24.6 million in sales in just three weeks speaks to the genuine demand for a lifestyle community of this calibre in the Hunter Valley," Hunter says.

"We’re seeing buyers from across the region and beyond, including investors who recognise the long-term value, and owner-occupiers who simply want to live somewhere truly special.

“Lovedale Farm is two decades in the making, and the market’s response is everything we hoped for. We’re excited to see these first buyers become part of the Lovedale Farm story from the very beginning."

<img alt="Lovedale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="54d985cf-2ac2-400b-ac02-4401f3421ac7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/20260321LovedaleFarmDisplayHomeOpening--5.jpg?VersionId=3866bPoqpLZsm.3ACg9EafAr1W3miC_f" />

&nbsp;

Spanning 240 hectares on Wine Country Drive in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/lovedale-nsw-2325">Lovedale</a>, the $1 billion development is expected to deliver around 1,250 jobs during construction and inject more than $300 million into the local economy. The first 200 homes and championship 18-hole golf course are anticipated for completion in late 2027.

Capital Corporation has also lodged development plans for the Lovedale Farm clubhouse, set to become a vibrant hub for residents and the wider Hunter Valley community. Further releases are planned for later this year.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=14476]

Joel Robinson

Lovedale Farm display home opening triggers $24.6 million in sales in three weeks

Prominent Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/osk-property">OSK Property</a> has unveiled <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aura-at-melbourne-square-7-hoff-boulevard-southbank-vic-3006">Aura</a>, the next stage of its $3.5 billion Melbourne Square precinct in Southbank, continuing its push into wellness-led, amenity-rich apartment living.

The $800 million tower, planned for 7 Hoff Boulevard, will rise 67 storeys and deliver 673 apartments, with COX Architecture drawing on both Japanese design principles and Australia’s natural landscape to shape the building’s identity. A rectangular grid aesthetic defines the building’s exterior, with COX drawing design cues from New York high-rises and Tokyo’s skyline.

Aura builds on a growing trend in high-density living, where wellness is no longer an add-on but central to the product. The development is structured around four key pillars, combining calm, minimalist residences with layered communal spaces, landscaped gardens, and a suite of wellness amenities designed to support both physical and mental wellbeing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151921 project_image_fid=367465]

At the core of the project is what OSK describes as a vertical wellness ecosystem, a multi-level approach to amenity that integrates health, lifestyle, and social spaces throughout the building rather than confining them to a single level.

The main resident hub, the Aura Club on level seven, will include a pool, cold plunge, spa, gym, Pilates and yoga studios, alongside more lifestyle-driven inclusions like a golf simulator, music rooms, library, and work-from-home spaces. Above, a series of higher-level amenity zones, including the Meridian Club and Cumulus Club, introduce more refined, social and retreat-style environments, with private dining, lounges, and premium wellness spaces positioned to take advantage of city views.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151921 project_image_fid=367467]

The residences themselves will largely include balconies, a key design move in a market increasingly focused on natural light, airflow, and connection to the outdoors. Views will extend across the CBD, the Arts Precinct, Royal Botanic Gardens, and beyond.

Aura also introduces approximately 1,600 sqm of retail across the lower levels, further activating the Melbourne Square precinct, which already includes Kennedy Park, a Woolworths, childcare, and a growing mix of hospitality operators.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151921 project_image_fid=367474]

“Aura stands tall as an exemplar of holistic wellness – its focus on social, physical and mental health culminate in a building that is calming, restorative and relaxing, where residents will have their own sanctuary within the well-connected and sought-after <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/southbank-vic-3006">Southbank</a>," says&nbsp;OSK Property CEO Chong Boon Woon.

“We have been very encouraged by the market’s response to the BLVD offering, and we know there is a strong demand for the level of amenity, service and design that the Melbourne Square precinct is known for.

“Complemented by work-from-home lounges for professionals, family friendly outdoor garden spaces, and state-of-the-art fitness and wellness facilities, Aura will continue our focus on maximising physical, emotional, and mental wellbeing,” he said.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151921 project_image_fid=367475]

The project follows the strong performance of BLVD, which is now around 80 per cent sold, and reinforces OSK Property’s long-term commitment to Melbourne Square as a fully integrated, mixed-use precinct.

Construction is expected to commence in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151921]

OSK unveils AURA, the latest stage in Southbank's $3.5 billion Melbourne Square precinct

National developer Time &amp; Place appears to have settled on a design for its long-anticipated Potts Point project.

After several years of back and forth with local council and the NSW Government, the developer, which has spent seven years targeting the former The Chimes site on Macleay Street, has now progressed its plans.

Following a concept design submission last year by SJB, Time &amp; Place has lodged a full State Significant Development Application with the NSW Government, this time for a scheme designed by Kerry Hill Architects.

<img alt="Time &amp; Place" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="504d2a27-d65f-4227-8189-1e35e3376e62" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-20%20at%209.38.24%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=_XqFKATYHF30KnVByPxhaI9UBzmkmfn7" />

The 16-storey proposal includes 44 apartments, 21 of which will be build-to-sell. These will comprise 19 three-bedroom apartments and two four-bedroom units.

More than 50 per cent of the development will be dedicated to affordable housing, with 23 studio apartments to be delivered in line with the NSW Government’s Housing SEPP.

Kerry Hill Architects said the proposal is driven by a strong response to place.

“Our proposal for a new residential building for Potts Point in Sydney is driven by a deep consideration of place,” the practice said in its submission.

“This operates on multiple levels, including a landscape approach that reinstates endemic flora of the Sydney peninsula and provides a ground-floor garden for residents, reconnecting the site to its pre-European history. A brick podium further strengthens this relationship to context, integrating planting and fine bronze detailing that references the predominant material language of Macleay Street.”

The three-level podium will be topped by a communal resident space, featuring a covered pool designed to receive direct afternoon sun in winter, a neighbouring reflection pool, dining and event areas oriented to maximise sunset views, and an outdoor exercise zone.

<img alt="Time &amp; Place" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8d3eedc1-babb-44a3-bd96-d8a42f3adf1f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-20%20at%209.37.48%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Ii7.4dvqNatu5GQi6bhqNjAswrMB998." />

The design also incorporates highly crafted shopfronts and a clearly defined residential entry to activate the street. Juliette balconies to the podium residences will provide passive surveillance and a strong sense of habitation.

Above, the larger apartments are housed within a light-coloured masonry and bronze tower.

“The tower steps back in a series of gently curved volumes that reference the rich Art Deco context of Macleay Street,” the architects said. “Carefully calibrated vertical fins frame the views while providing privacy and a sense of refuge.”

<img alt="Time &amp; Place" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6fab60f4-3140-4469-b47a-48c781e0a30b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-04-20%20at%209.28.44%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=e5XxrM3kzdASdKlcIACHAHbOSZhSKC9O" />

Time &amp; Place has been one of the most active developers nationally in the last 12 to 24 months. Late last year they completed&nbsp;The Queensbridge in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/southbank-vic-3006">Southbank</a>, a mixed-use tower with 353 apartments and a hotel. They are currently selling Park Modern, 246 apartments near the famous Botanic Gardens in South Melbourne.

The developer has approval for The Burke, a mixed-use project in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/glen-iris-vic-3146">Glen Iris</a>&nbsp;being delivered in partnership with Woolworths. The 60 apartments, positioned above a new Woolworths supermarket, are expected to launch in the coming months. Time &amp; Place is also progressing plans for the redevelopment of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/northcote-vic-3070">Northcote</a>&nbsp;Plaza, and have recently submitted plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/time-place-unveils-plans-22-storey-south-melbourne-tower">22-storey tower</a>, another in South Melbourne.

In&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/sydney-nsw">Sydney</a>, the developer has two projects in Manly: Two Tides, which is currently under construction, and an ultra high-end building on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/shoreline-manly-beach-89-90-north-steyne-manly">North Steyne</a>, fronting the beach. It is also continuing to work through the redevelopment of The Chimes building on Macleay Street in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/potts-point-nsw-2011">Potts Point</a>, as well as Marlborough House, the redevelopment of the original David Jones warehouse building in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/surry-hills-nsw-2010">Surry Hills</a>.

First look: Time & Place settles on design for The Chimes, Potts Point redevelopment

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/develotek">Develotek</a> is joining the likes of TOGA, Deicorp, and One Global Capital, betting on a boom in Five Dock ahead of the 2032 mooted opening of the Five Dock Metro Station.

Develotek, which is currently developing Bianca on the Drummoyne waterfront and has plans approved for a tower in Chatswood, has filed a State Significant Development Application for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/79-81-queens-road-five-dock-nsw-2046">two-building project in the evolving Kings Bay precinct</a>.

The buildings, one more boutique just five storeys and the other 26 storeys, will rise from an 3,158 sqm site across&nbsp;79–81 Queens Road and 2–8 Spencer Street, will home 134 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, above ground-floor retail and five basement levels of parking.

A key component of the proposal is the inclusion of 15 per cent of residential floor space as in-fill affordable housing, unlocking additional height and density under the Housing SEPP.

<img alt="First Look: Develotek lodges State Significant shop top housing project in Five Dock precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3ee31bf7-75ba-4bc5-b190-49885193219f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/podium_2.png?VersionId=730UbrduuwK3C1sO28RHjiLPUPqXqjkh" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a>, the scheme adopts a podium-and-tower configuration, with a five-storey street wall along Queens Road transitioning to a 26-storey tower set deeper into the site. The ground plane prioritises activation and permeability, with retail frontages and a new through-site link connecting Queens Road to Spencer Street.

At the upper levels, the tower façade has been conceived using a modular system to support prefabrication and reduce construction waste, while improving build efficiency. The splayed form draws on the geometry of surrounding industrial rooftops, reinterpreting the area’s heritage in a contemporary expression while also helping to reduce solar heat gain to east and west-facing apartments.

“This project aspires to transform a former industrial site into a connected, resilient and people-focused urban community, grounded in Country, shaped by history, and designed to enrich everyday life within the evolving Kings Bay Precinct,” said John Walsh, Principal at Plus Studio.

The proposal reflects the broader transformation of the Kings Bay Precinct under the Parramatta Road Corridor Urban Transformation Strategy, marking a shift from its industrial past to a higher-density, mixed-use urban neighbourhood.

<img alt="First Look: Develotek lodges State Significant shop top housing project in Five Dock precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="abde734c-1e31-4a97-a1d2-fa9bcf31c380" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/building%20podium.png?VersionId=fNUupP6u146yEytQT31kKVRxwtACgPpP" />

Develotek is emerging as an active participant in the state’s affordable housing-led uplift pathway. The developer recently secured approval for a 34-storey mixed-use tower in Chatswood, where it similarly leveraged the in-fill affordable housing provisions to increase scale and deliver a 101-unit scheme with dedicated affordable apartments.

Their entry into Five Dock places them alongside a growing list of developers targeting the suburb ahead of its anticipated transport uplift, with Sydney Metro set to extend into the area. Major players including TOGA, Deicorp, and One Global Capital are all progressing large-scale precinct-style developments nearby, collectively reshaping the low-rise industrial fabric into a higher-density mixed-use corridor.

The Five Dock site sits within the Kings Bay Precinct, a key renewal area under the Parramatta Road Corridor Urban Transformation Strategy, where planning controls support significant uplift tied to affordable housing delivery. The consolidated 3,158 sqm site is currently occupied by low-rise industrial uses, including warehouses and vehicle workshops, earmarked for transition.

First Look: Develotek joins in Five Dock apartment boom

Ascot’s Racecourse Road continues to be a hive of activity for Brisbane developers.

Following Fortis and GRAYA, which are both preparing new projects along the key strip connecting Kingsford Smith Drive and Eagle Farm Racecourse, local developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/skyhold">Skyhold</a> is the latest to lodge plans for its own development.

The group is proposing One One Two Residences, a boutique project comprising just seven apartments, named after its address at 112 Racecourse Road.

The proposal outlines a five-storey building on an 810 sqm site. The built form slightly exceeds the four-storey expectation under the neighbourhood plan, aligning instead with the emerging character of the strip. As the planning report notes, “the locality is characterised by a transition toward medium-rise residential development, with a number of recent developments… above the stipulated height limits.”

<img alt="First Look: Skyhold lodges plans for boutique Ascot apartments as Racecourse Road revival gathers pace" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ec577631-8c51-4163-960e-e7b3a77d655b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Ascot.png?VersionId=iAzQ46D4Uu1UqiS0mVnlcy9jeFKBpJIj" />

Designed by 111 with landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/paul-bangay-garden-design">Paul Bangay Studio</a>, the scheme adopts a layered architectural approach with strong articulation and a subtropical response. Deep balconies, integrated planters, and a mix of masonry and textured finishes define the façade, while upper-level setbacks reduce perceived bulk. The architectural statement describes “a series of horizontally expressed layers, defined by deep balconies and a consistent robust material palette,” aimed at delivering a refined streetscape presence.

Apartments are configured as large-format residences, including multiple three-bedroom layouts and a full-floor penthouse, supported by ground-level parking. A rooftop terrace will provide communal amenities including a pool and landscaped recreation areas. The design prioritises privacy, natural ventilation, and greenery, with planting integrated across all levels to soften the building form and contribute to the public realm.

<img alt="First Look: Skyhold lodges plans for boutique Ascot apartments as Racecourse Road revival gathers pace" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1e1219bd-b45a-4d7f-bbc7-7207d7b2fc94" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Ascot%20entry.png?VersionId=JIoUOLMgQ5xWpEF0etEI3ffIoIVjD7gO" />

The proposal sits within the Racecourse Road precinct, a key mixed-use spine in Ascot that continues to attract renewed development interest.

Later this year national developer Fortis will launch its own boutique development, which, pending council approvals, will be 16 apartments designed by Koichi Takada Architects, just down the street.

“Racecourse Road is going through a massive revitalisation and we’re proud to be a part of that transformation,” said Fortis's QLD General Manager, Dan Boman.

Nearby, GRAYA is advancing its larger-scale The Gallery, a mixed-use shop-top housing project designed to act as a “catalytic project for Racecourse Road.”

First Look: Racecourse Road, Hamilton revitalization to continue as Skyhold joins the party

Price Decline

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The overwhelming weight of expert commentary has rubbished Macquarie Bank’s forecast of major price decline in the next 12 months. 
Some media has presented Macquarie’s simplistic analysis, based on Australian as a single property market with a very specific price prediction, as the gospel according to irrefutable economists. But most coverage has been a counter-attack from credible commentators presenting more considered and realistic views of next year’s markets.
Aussie Home Loans chief John Symond said "there's buckley's chance of a price correction." As Property Observer reported on 22 October, Symond told a Sydney investment conference that Sydney's market was nearing its peak, <a href="/news/sydneys-booming-residential-property-market-was-nearing-peak-john-symond">with “steam coming out of the market and sanity coming in”</a>, and predicted a more flat market – but no across-the-board decreases.
And he observed, quite correctly, that there would be differences from one area to the next. "Hot areas will still see a 7-9% gain, in other areas you might see 3-4% and in some other areas a 5% drop," he said. "You have to do your homework." 
Yes, indeed. That is a far more reasoned assessment of the near future than Macquarie’s prediction of a blanket 7.5% decline, apparently everywhere.
Louis Christopher of SQM Research has predicted house price growth in 2016 but at a slower pace than recent years. As an experienced analyst, he knows better than to make a generalised forecast that covers the whole nation as a single market. He has different forecasts for each city and includes three different forecast scenarios in each case, dependent on key events including economic growth, interest rates and the value of the Australian dollar.
In the latest edition of Housing Boom and Bust Report from SQM Research, he predicted Sydney prices will rise between 4% and 9% next year. Melbourne is forecast to overtake Sydney and be the best-performing capital city in 2016 with a rise of between 8% and 13%. 
Christopher said the market overall is unlikely to see price decline for a number of reasons, including the Australian dollar, which is tipped to stay at current low levels or fall further, providing a buffer to the economy and the housing market. 
Raine &amp; Horne executive chairman Angus Raine believes the Macquarie prediction is difficult to substantiate given the current performance of major property markets. He said the level of demand for property and the depth to the market do not indicate a major correction.
Veronica Morgan, the principal of Good Deeds Property Buyers based in Sydney’s inner west, quite rightly criticised the bank for broadcasting the prediction without considering markets on a micro scale.
“It really annoys me when bank PR people get hold of some economic data and suddenly an impending drop in the property market is front-page news,” she said. “Why can I say that this latest prediction will not come true? Because there is really no such thing as an Australian property market. Look at any national property data and you will see that no two capital cities perform in the same way. 
“And then there are regional markets that all have their own cycles to consider. So how can anybody make a claim that the entire country is over-priced or ready for a fall? Even within Sydney there are dozens, probably hundreds, of micro markets."
Business commentator Peter Switzer said the bank forecast "bordered on being stupid", while Andrew Wilson, the senior economist at Domain's Australian Property Monitors, said it was “unbelievably unlikely”.
Wilson noted that, in the past decade, there had not been any national annual drops of more than 5%. “Even in periods where we had prices falling, such as during 2008 when it was the global financial crisis, the national house price fell by just under 4%,” Wilson said. 
Stockland chief Mark Steinert expects house prices to continue to rise next year. His forecast is 3% to 5%.
"There has been quite a lot of talk going on for quite a long time now about the imminent downturn in housing, but no one has mentioned that it hasn't actually eventuated," Steinert told a Property Council lunch in Melbourne. 
"The reality is the economy in Australia is growing at a moderate level of around 2.5%. We have a low Australian dollar, continued population growth (albeit at a slower rate) and metro housing markets that are generally under-supplied. These are not the pre-conditions for some sort of general correction in housing."
There have numerous other commentators on the issue and the general theme is that there will be price growth in 2016 - but, in the case of Sydney especially, the rate of growth will be less.
An alternative view has come from accident-prone Shane Oliver, AMP Capital’s chief economist, who is predicting price decline but not until 2017.
Oliver has probably the worst track record of any economist in predicting real estate events. I could fill several pages with examples, but basically he believes housing is “over-valued” and has been predicting a significant correction for most of the past 10 years.
He clearly is one of those, not unlike another failed forecaster Steve Keen, who believes that if you keep making the same prediction year after year, you’ll eventually get it right.
So Shameless Shane was out there in the media again recently expounding his bubble theories, with claims of over-valuation of housing and predictions that property prices would fall “between 5% and 10%” - which might happen “around 2017”.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Experts rubbish Macquarie Bank's price decline forecast: Terry Ryder

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Forecaster BIS Shrapnel this week used apartment oversupply as part of the justification for predicting (minor) price decline in some of our major cities over the next three years.
While I certainly share their concerns about over-building of high-rise apartments, I don’t agree that this means prices generally will fall in those cities.
Does a unit over-supply in inner-city Adelaide or Brisbane prevent house prices from growing in housing markets in the middle-ring and outer suburbs?
On the Gold Coast, past oversupply has resulted in key locations like Surfers Paradise having pricing levels lower than 10 years ago. But it hasn’t prevented inland housing suburbs from delivering price growth averaging 4-5 percent per year over the past decade.
So I expect price growth in housing markets in Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra and Hobart – as well as the Gold Coast – regardless of the over-supply issue in the high-rise areas of those cities. I’m not expecting much from Sydney or Melbourne in the next few years, because those markets have passed their peaks and sales levels have fallen away dramatically, leading to price stagnation or minor decline.
The unit oversupply is a separate issue – and a serious one. It’s significant that lenders are including high-rise areas on blacklists, that developers are deferring planned projects and that vacancy rates are rising in key areas.
This week I updated vacancy rates for Brisbane inner-city suburbs for a seminar presentation. There has been a market blow-out in vacancies in all six suburbs I reference in that presentation. Most now have vacancies in the 5-6 percent range, according to SQM Research figures. 
In the space of three months, the vacancy rate for the Brisbane CBD has increased from 4.4 percent to 5 percent, while Woolloongabba is up from 4.8 to 5.5 percent and New Farm has increased from 5.3 to 6.1 percent.
These statistics will worsen as projects now under construction are completed and their apartments join the rental pool – because very few of the sales are being made to owner-occupiers.
Apartment markets with current or looming surpluses of stock make up half of the 10 markets highlighted in my No Go Zones report (the only half being regional areas impacted by the resources sector).
This really is one of the core issues facing the property industry. While the developer lobby keeps running the party line about dwelling shortages – despite two years of record building approvals pumped up by apartment projects – the big issue is the opposite problem of surplus.
It’s inevitable that, in some markets, vacancies will rise, rents will fall and values will be impacted.
As BIS Shrapnel senior director Angie Zigomanis says: “Nearly all capital cities are building apartments at record rates on the back of the recent strength in investor demand. As these projects are progressively completed, it is likely that there will not be enough tenants in a number of cities to support rents and consequently values upon completion.”
I’m amazed at how many people are still buying apartments in Surfers Paradise, inner-city Melbourne and inner-city Brisbane, and by the number of new projects seeking approval in oversupplied markets like Perth, Brisbane and Melbourne.
Across the key high-rise suburbs of the Gold Coast, Melbourne and Brisbane, 8,242 people have bought apartments in the past 12 months, including 1,588 in Surfers Paradise and 1,501 in the Melbourne CBD. 
Do these people not read? Don’t they have access to the Internet? The warnings from analysts, commentators, lenders and the Reserve Bank over the past 12-18 months add up to a deafening roar.
If you’re ignoring all that and still buying high-rise units off-the-plan in these markets - or if you’re oblivious to it because you haven’t done even the most basic research - you deserve to lose money.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="mailto:hotspotting@gmail.com">hotspotting@gmail.com</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
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Apartment over-building doesn't mean prices will fall: Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Headline: House prices fell in May. Alternative headline: House prices rose in May. 
Which is right? Actually, both. Or, more correctly, it depends on whose figures you believe.
CoreLogic records a 0.4% reduction in house prices (overall, the average across the nation) during May, but Louis Christopher’s SQM Research reports a 1.1% rise in house prices over the same period.
And when the latest figures from Domain and the ABS become available, they’ll have different numbers as well.
We could spend hours discussing why different sources produce different (and sometimes conflicting) results on what’s happening with property prices. But suffice to say that they all have their own methodologies and parameters – and what they’re attempting, to distil tens of thousands of sales in myriad locations into a single growth figure, is a tad challenging.
But, ultimately, it’s doesn’t matter whether CoreLogic is right or SQM is right. Essentially, they’re saying the same thing: property prices are remarkably stubborn in the face of major negative forces. As they so often are.
House prices continue to defy the doomsday forecasters, many of them economists who refuse to let go of their flawed theories about how property prices SHOULD behave – and others among them opportunists who see potential to generate free publicity.
Here are some headlines:
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1">“House prices to drop 20%: AMP Capital” – The Australian, 19 March.</li>
<li class="li1">“House prices could drop by up to 20%, says UBS” – Financial Review, 18 March</li>
<li class="li1">“Prices to plunge 30% as clearance rates fall off a cliff” – The Age, 8 April</li>
<li class="li1">“House prices will collapse, says UBS” – Financial Review, 2 April</li>
<li class="li1">“Can’t rule out 30% fall in house prices, says SQM” – Financial Review, 7 April</li>
<li class="li1">“House prices could dive 30%” – The Age, 27 April</li>
</ul>
For those who declare “but it’s early days”, it isn’t.
This pandemic shemozzle, in terms of its impact on Australian life, declared itself on 20 February when the share market had its first meltdown. We’ve already been through the worst of the health impacts and the toughest of the restrictions and now we’re emerging steadily from lockdown towards increasing levels of normality.
When the price data for March (showing growth in most markets) was published, many in mainstream media said: “Yeah, but wait to we get the April figures, then we’ll see the true impact of Covid-19.”
When the April figures came out (again showing minor growth in most markets), we got the same reaction: “Yeah, but May will see prices nosediving.”
Well, that didn’t happen either. The CoreLogic data showed that in May there was growth or no change in house prices in nine of the 15 market jurisdictions (eight capital cities and seven state regional markets), with an overall result of -0.4%, while SQM reported a national rise of 1.1% and a capital city rise of 0.5%, with increases in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Adelaide and Canberra.
So, now the standard line from failed forecasters seeking to justify their negative stance on property markets is this: “Yeah, prices are stable for now but in September when the stimulus runs out everything will fall off a cliff.”
This comes direct from the kindergarten of real estate forecasting. It assumes that nothing will change over the next 3-4 months and that governments and lenders will recklessly turn off the tap without any regard to consequences. 
It also assumes that it’s all about JobKeeper and mortgage holidays, and overlooks the importance of infrastructure spending, loans and grants to businesses, support measures for renters, ongoing government stimulus measures like the $25,000 grant to home builders and renovators, and a whole lot more.
Australia has done well in this crisis and continues to do so. And the future belongs to those who see opportunity rather than calamity.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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How true are real estate price fall headlines? Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Residential property prices fell -1.8 per cent in the June quarter 2020, according to the latest figures released today by the ABS.
Melbourne (-2.3 per cent) and Sydney (-2.2 per cent), were the nation's worst performers over the quarter, but all capitals apart from Canberra saw declines.
Over the 12 months however to the June quarter 2020, property prices across the country jumped 6.2 per cent.
Only Perth and Darwin didn't record a rise.
According to the ABS Melbourne led the way with 8.8 per cent gains, followed by Sydney's 8.1 per cent rise.
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/9/17/Price%20indexes.png" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/9/17/Price%20indexes.png" alt="">
The ABS advised that the total value of Australia’s 10.5 million residential dwellings fell by $98.2 billion to $7,138.2 billion in the June quarter 2020. 
The mean price of residential dwellings in Australia in the June quarter 2020 was $678,500. 
Sydney's decline over the June quarter was driven by houses, which saw declines of -2.6 per cent, back from its March quarter gains of 2.6 per cent.
The ABS say the falls in Sydney's housing market were most evident in the middle to upper market segments, which they calculate at $940,000 and above.
Houses prices are 9.2 per cent higher over the last 12 months.
Units fell back -1.4 per cent, after a 0.8 per cent gain in the March quarter. Over the 12 months unit values are up 6.1 per cent.
The larger declines were in the middle to upper market bracket, $670,000 and above.
It was a similar story in Melbourne with houses the hardest hit in the June quarter. Prices were down -2.8 per cent following a 2.3 per cent March quarter gain.
The ABS say price falls were most evident in the middle to upper segment of the market, which they calculate is $8100,000 and above.
Melbourne's house values are up 8.9 per cent over the last 12 months, just shy of Sydney.
Unit prices over the June quarter dropped one per cent, from a 1.5 per cent gain in the March quarter.
Price falls were most evident in the upper segment of the market, which the ABS say is $670,000 and above.
 
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Melbourne and Sydney lead 1.8 per cent June quarter decline: ABS

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Melbourne has joined Sydney as a declining housing market, according to the latest national property clock from valuation firm Herron Todd White.
Last month HTW had Melbourne houses starting to decline, with Sydney already deemed a declining market.
There was worse news to come from Sydney's Central Coast, whose housing market last month was at the bottom of the market.
Now HTW believe there's still further to go for the region, now joining Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Ipswich as a declining market.
Good news for Sydney's other popular weekender hotspot, the Southern Highlands, whose housing market is starting to rise.
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/9/9/HTW%20house%20clock%20September.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/9/9/HTW%20house%20clock%20September.jpg" alt="">
Hobart continued to look strong, with houses at the peak of the market. Launceston and the Burnie/Devenport area too joined in the good times.
The housing markets in Darwin, Broome and Bundaberg are at the bottom, joining Alice Springs and the Southern Tablelands.
With COVID-19 impacting real estate markets nationally, and even globally, valuers at Herron Todd White are asking “Will Spring spring in 2020?”
"Spring has always been considered an excellent time to sell, particularly if you have a detached dwelling with a garden; the blooming plants and warmer climate make an attractive prospect for buyers", Herron Todd White's monthly report advises.
"With the effects of COVID-19 still playing out, we feel that properties that offer landscaped gardens and study rooms will further attract keen buyers as people continue to spend more time at home, either working or relaxing."
 
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Melbourne joins Sydney as declining housing market: HTW National Property Clock

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National dwelling values continued to trend lower over August, the fourth consecutive month of declines, according to CoreLogic's home value index.
Declines are softening however, with values recording a -0.4 per cent decline in August, better than the -0.6 per cent decline over July and -0.7 per cent over June.
Melbourne's -1.2 per cent dwelling value decline drastically skewed the overall national decline.
Sydney and Brisbane were the only other two capitals to record declines, with values contracting -0.5 per cent and -0.1 per cent respectively.
Darwin was the best performer, with dwelling values up one per cent, following by Canberra's 0.5 per cent gain.
Hobart's values rose 0.1 per cent, while Adelaide and Perth remained unchanged.
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/9/1/CL%20August%20dwelling%20index.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/9/1/CL%20August%20dwelling%20index.jpg" alt="">
CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless highlighted the Melbourne market dragging the headline results.
“Following a similar decline in July, Melbourne home values fell by 1.2% in August, the largest fall recorded amongst the capital cities, demonstrating the impact of a worse viral outbreak relative to other cities, along with a larger demand side impact from stalled overseas migration", Lawless said.
"Through the COVID period to date, Melbourne home values have fallen by 4.6%.”
<h1>Houses and Units</h1>
Houses are still driving the decline across Melbourne and Sydney.
Melbourne's houses scaled back another -1.4 per cent, following on from another -1.4 per cent over July to be -4 per cent down for the quarter.
Sydney's house value declines softened over August, down -0.5 per cent, after a -1 per cent decline over July. They are now -2.4 per cent down on the quarter.
Sydney units were down -0.3 per cent over August, also better than the -0.7 per cent declines in July.
Melbourne units suffered as COVID-19 continues to lockdown the city. They contracted -0.8 per cent, from 0.7 per cent July falls.
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/9/1/CL%20dwelling%20index%20full.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/9/1/CL%20dwelling%20index%20full.jpg" alt="">
Brisbane's houses recovered to see no value falls over August, with units (-0.3 per cent) dragging their dwelling value decline in to the negative over the last month.
The biggest contrast of house and unit performance was in Hobart. Houses were up 0.3 per cent, but units down -0.7 per cent over August.
Darwin's bumper one per cent gains were primarily driven by houses, up 1.1 per cent, and held by units, up 0.7 per cent.
Darwin now have the only housing and unit market in the country with gains over the last quarter.
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“Looking forward we are likely to see a diverse outcome for housing markets around Australia, depending on how well the virus is contained and the regions exposure to other factors such as its reliance on overseas migration as a source of housing demand," Lawless added. 
 
 
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Sydney value decline slows as Melbourne worsens: CoreLogic's September Index

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July saw a third consecutive month of declines for property values across the country, with the national index dropping a further 0.6 per cent over the month, according to property data firm CoreLogic.
The decline however was slightly less than the -0.7 per cent declines posted over June.
Canberra (+0.6 per cent) and Adelaide (+0.1 per cent), were the only capitals to buck the trend.
Sydney and Melbourne led the way in declines, with the Victorian capital, now in lockdown again, seeing a -1.2 per cent decline, and the harbour capital with values scaling back -0.9 per cent.
Melbourne's quicker decline has seen its annual returns drop below 10 per cent for the first time since March.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/8/3/CL%20dwelling%20index%20August.jpg" alt=""> 
CoreLogic's head of research Tim Lawless says housing markets have remained relatively resilient through the COVID period so far.
“The impact from COVID-19 on housing values has been orderly to-date, with CoreLogic’s national index falling only 1.6% since the recent high in April and housing turnover has recovered quickly after it’s sharp fall in late March and April.”
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“Record low interest rates, government support and loan repayment holidays for distressed borrowers have helped to insulate the housing market from a more significant downturn. 
"Advertised supply levels have remained tight, with the total number of properties for sale falling a further 4.3% in the 4 weeks to July 27th, sitting 15.2% below where they were this time last year. 
"Additionally, increased demand driven by housing specific incentives from both federal and state governments, especially for first home buyers, have become more substantial.”
<h1>Houses and Units</h1>
It was another mixed bag for the housing and unit market across July, with the unit market holding up slightly better than the housing market across most capitals.
Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart all saw units outperform houses, while Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Darwin and Canberra all saw a stronger month for housing.
It was again the housing market that dragged Melbourne and Sydney to the top of the worst performers.
Melbourne's housing market saw a further -1.4 per cent declines, following on from -1.3 per cent declines in June, while Sydney's one per cent contraction across July was slightly worse than its -0.9 per cent last month.
Both of the country's major capital city markets saw their units scale back -0.7 per cent.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/8/3/CL%20value%20index%20August.jpg" alt="">
Tim Lawless says the medium term outlook remains skewed to the downside across the country with the government's fiscal support set to taper from October. 
“Urgent sales are likely to become more common as we approach these milestones, which will test the market’s resilience", Lawless suggests.
"Similarly, the recent concerns of a second wave of the virus and the potential for renewed border closures and stricter social distancing polices are likely to further push consumer sentiment down.
"This is likely to weigh on both home buying and selling activity more broadly.”
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Melbourne real estate values continue decline through July: CoreLogic

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Australia's eastern states continue to drive the residential dwelling value decline across the country, with a second consecutive month of falls nationally.
CoreLogic's Home Value Index recorded a -0.7 per cent decline in values over June, following on from a -0.4 per cent decline over May.
And again it's been Sydney and Melbourne the two main drivers, the Victorian capital the joint worst performer across the country, down -1.1 per cent and matching Perth's decline.
Sydney posted -0.8 per cent dwelling declines, having seen -0.4 per cent declines over May.
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/7/1/CL%20index%20June.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/7/1/CL%20index%20June.jpg" alt="">
There were smaller declines in Brisbane and Adelaide, while Hobart, Canberra and Darwin all bucked the downward trend.
Despite June's value decline, market activity estimates were encouraging, showing a 29.5 per cent surge in home sales. Over May sales activity had been up 21.5 per cent.
CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said the downwards pressure on home values has remained mild to-date, with capital city dwelling values falling a cumulative 1.3% over the past two months. 
"A variety of factors have helped to protect home values from more significant declines, including persistently low advertised stock levels and significant government stimulus", Lawless suggested.
"Additionally, low interest rates and forbearance policies from lenders have helped to keep urgent sales off the market, providing further insulation to housing values.”
<h2>Houses and Units</h2>
The housing market across the country performed slightly worse than units over the month, with -0.7 per cent declines compared to units -0.6 per cent.
And it was the housing market that dragged down Sydney and Melbourne.
Sydney's house values dropped -0.9 per cent, compared to the -0.6 per cent decline in unit values.
There was a bigger difference in Melbourne where they saw house values scale back -1.3 per cent compared to units -0.7 per cent.
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/7/1/CL%20full%20index%20June.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/7/1/CL%20full%20index%20June.jpg" alt="">
The unit markets however in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth all underperformed compared to housing.
Darwin and Canberra were the only capital's to see gains in both the housing and unit markets.
<h2>Where are prices falling?</h2>
In that nation's two biggest real estate markets, values are down the most in the upper quartile.
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“Higher value markets tend to be more reactive to changes in the environment, having led both the upswing and the downturn over previous cycles", Lawless said.
"The past three months has seen this trend playing out, with upper quartile values down 1.7% across the combined capital city index over the past three months, while lower quartile values have fallen by only 0.3%."
Lawless says the capital city trend is driven mostly by Sydney and Melbourne, while the smaller cities have shown a mixed result across the valuation cohorts.
"In Sydney the upper quartile is down 1.3% over the past three months, while lower quartile values are up 0.2%.
"Similarly, over the same period in Melbourne, upper quartile values are down 3.7% while lower quartile values have declined a more modest 0.5%.
"Importantly, the upper quartile also recorded the most significant run-up in values throughout the second half of last year."
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Melbourne leads east coast residential June price declines: CoreLogic

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Nearly six in 10 experts in Finder.com.au's RBA Cash Rate Survey say now is not a good time to buy property.
Experts and economists have predicted nationwide price falls, with Sydney and Hobart being the hardest hit, both declining over 10 per cent.
Darwin and Melbourne will both see over nine per cent declines, while over eight per cent drops will be felt in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide.
Canberra is predicted to weather the storm the most, with 6.4 per cent declines forecast.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/5/6/Finder%20price%20dip%20experts.jpg" alt="">
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said with increasing unemployment and growing economic uncertainty house prices will slide over the rest of the year. 
“Both househunter and seller demand has weakened in the last month as Australians hunker down to help stop the spread of coronavirus," Cooke said.
“It’s not just experts, we’ve also seen consumer sentiment about whether it is a ‘good time to buy’ drop from a peak of 60% in July 2019 to just 42% in April."
Unemployment is a key reasons for the envisaged price falls.
John Rolfe, head of Elders Home Loans expects unemployment to go as high as 18%. Noel Whittaker, executive in residence and adjunct professor at QUT Business School said the full impact of COVID-19 is yet to be understood. “This recession will be far worse than the government imagines...they can't close down so many businesses and not expect a severe hangover.  “As for real estate, it's never a bad time to buy a bargain,” Whittaker said. 
Susan Mitchell at Mortgage Choice said social distancing measures had "knocked the wind out of the sails of the property market."
"Time will tell if this will translate to declining dwelling values," she said.
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