Developers and apartment buyers have a narrowing window of opportunity before Brisbane's Olympic infrastructure pipeline begins competing directly with residential construction, pushing up costs, tightening labour supply and making new projects increasingly difficult to deliver.

While Brisbane's apartment market continues to benefit from strong population growth and limited housing supply, industry research suggests the years leading up to 2027 could prove to be the most important period for developers looking to secure builders and buyers hoping to purchase before the next wave of price increases.

A new Colliers report, Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games: Creating Solutions, highlights the scale of the challenge. While thousands of new homes are planned across South East Queensland, the Brisbane Olympic Athletes Village alone will deliver more than 10,500 beds during the Games before being converted into around 1,750 to 2,000 apartments. Equivalent to almost two years of typical inner-city apartment supply, the project will also absorb a significant share of the construction workforce and building materials.

The broader construction pipeline paints an even clearer picture.

Construction Skills Queensland's Horizon 2032 report forecasts Queensland's annual construction pipeline will average $69 billion over the coming years before peaking at $75 billion in 2027-28. Demand for construction workers is expected to increase by 17 per cent to almost 150,000 people, with the industry facing an annual shortfall of around 19,000 workers that could blow out to as many as 35,000 during the peak construction period.

The Olympic venues, athletes village and supporting infrastructure will account for billions of dollars worth of work across South East Queensland through to 2032, creating intense competition for labour at a time when Australia's residential construction sector is already under pressure.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=373834]

Colliers Queensland Residential Director Andrew Scriven said the convergence of these projects is creating a clear window of opportunity for both developers and buyers.

"From 2027 onwards, the market will shift dramatically," Scriven said.

"Labour will increasingly be locked into government-led infrastructure and Olympic projects, which means private residential developments will face higher costs and tighter margins. The developers who move now are the ones most likely to get projects off the ground."

Scriven said the same dynamic would also affect buyers, with fewer apartment projects expected to launch once construction capacity tightens.

"If you're looking to change your lifestyle over the next five years, now is your window of opportunity to buy."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150713 project_image_fid=373827]

Developers are already positioning themselves ahead of that window.

Following the success of Monarch at Toowong, Consolidated Properties is preparing to launch two new Brisbane apartment projects in the second half of 2026. They include <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gloriette-30-bedivere-street-yeerongpilly-qld-4105">Gloriette</a> at Yeerongpilly Green, a 25-storey tower within one of Brisbane's key Olympic precincts, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castile-47-skyring-terrace-newstead-qld-4006">Castile</a>, a recently approved 25-storey riverfront development at 47 Skyring Terrace in Newstead.

Hutchinson Builders will deliver both projects, with early works already underway at Yeerongpilly and Newstead expected to commence later this year.

The timing comes as Brisbane's fundamentals continue to strengthen, with strong interstate migration, population growth and vacancy rates remaining below 1.5 per cent.

Colliers Queensland researcher Pragya Sharma said Greater Brisbane is forecast to require around 40,000 new apartments between 2021 and 2031.

"There's a real mismatch emerging between when housing is needed and when it will be feasible to build," Sharma said.

"As a result, the period leading up to 2027 presents a key window of opportunity for developers to secure approvals, funding and construction capacity, while buyers will have greater choice before supply constraints intensify."

Colliers research outlines a critical pre-2027 window to start residential projects before labour squeeze: now is the time to buy

Joel Robinson

Developers, buyers on watch in South East Queensland ahead of construction crunch: Colliers

It's taken less than nine months for developer Sherpa Property Group to sell out all 51 apartments in its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-oasis-palm-beach-7-9-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Oasis</a> development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a>, over a year before its anticipated completion.

&nbsp;

Located at 7-9 Sixth Avenue, the $67 million development has resonated strongly with both local owner-occupiers and downsizers seeking high-quality apartments within walking distance of the beach, dining precincts and everyday amenities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357458]

Christie Leet, Founder of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Group</a>, said the sell-out reflected both the strength of the Palm Beach market and the success of Sherpa's community-first approach to development.

"The sell-out of Oasis is a fantastic outcome and reinforces the strong demand we're seeing for thoughtfully designed apartments in lifestyle locations," Leet said.

"From the outset, our vision was to create a development that genuinely enhanced the Palm Beach community while providing residents with exceptional homes and wellness-focused amenities.

"We've been incredibly encouraged by the level of local support throughout the campaign, 72.5 per cent of buyers are locals, with a significant proportion of purchasers choosing Oasis as their future home rather than an investment."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357463]

Construction is now progressing following development approval, with trusted builder LPS Group delivering the project and completion anticipated in Q3 2027.

Oasis forms part of Sherpa Group's successful Flourish collection, which has become recognised for its focus on wellness, community and elevated coastal living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357469]

Residents will have private access to a rooftop amenity space featuring a pool, gym, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, spa and barbecue facilities.

"The success of Oasis demonstrates that buyers continue to prioritise quality, location and lifestyle," Leet said.

"We are proud to have delivered a project that has resonated so strongly with the market and look forward to bringing Oasis to life for our future residents."

Sherpa recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a>, its third instalment of the Flourish brand in Palm Beach following Flourish Oasis and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151449]

Sherpa sells out Flourish Oasis in booming Palm Beach

Urban Property Group's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-macquarie-park-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a> is leading the next phase of Macquarie Park's residential evolution, with the new apartment development set to become the first of several new apartment projects in the precinct to complete.

The 169-apartment building has now topped out ahead of its scheduled completion in the third quarter of 2026, as new residential investment continues to reshape one of Sydney's largest employment hubs into a true mixed-use precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=368645]

Cox Architecture has designed La Vera to capture the best of its unique positioning on Talavera Road, orienting the building towards Lane Cove National Park.&nbsp;The building features a sculpted northern façade with flowing curves inspired by the surrounding landscape, while its city-facing elevation adopts a more structured architectural expression to maximise skyline views.

"The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park," <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> Director Felipe Miranda said.

"The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=358802]

La Vera offers a diverse mix of one, two, three, and four-bedroom configurations, with prices currently starting from $740,000. Buyers so far have been a mix of Sydney-based investors,&nbsp;metro commuters, owner-occupiers and downsizers from surrounding North Shore suburbs.

Both investors and owner-occupiers have been drawn to La Vera's proximity to Macquarie University, Macquarie University Hospital, Macquarie Centre and the Sydney Metro, infrastructure that supports both strong rental demand and a convenient lifestyle for residents.

The apartments feature full-height glazing, timber flooring throughout living areas, stone kitchen benchtops, SMEG appliances, floor-to-ceiling bathroom tiling and ducted air conditioning.

Residents will have access to a rooftop recreation level featuring a swimming pool, sauna, barbecue facilities and landscaped relaxation areas, complemented by additional communal space at ground level. Many apartments enjoy uninterrupted views across Lane Cove National Park, reinforcing the project's connection to its natural setting.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=364551]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>, a family-owned developer and builder with nearly four decades of experience, holds a 4.5-star iCIRT rating and was Australia's first developer to introduce 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI). La Vera is the first apartment development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/macquarie-park-nsw-2113">Macquarie Park</a> approved to offer the additional insurance protection, alongside a five-year warranty on SMEG appliances.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said the additional protection reflects changing buyer expectations in the off the plan market.

"Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been. Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share," Elias said.

Following completion of the building later this year, buyers will move into their apartments well before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134951]

La Vera closes in on completion as Macquarie Park continues residential transformation

Brisbane developer Red &amp; Co's decision to include dual key apartments in its debut Gold Coast apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/como-varsity-lakes-22-lake-street-varsity-lakes-qld-4227">COMO Varsity Lakes</a>, is proving to be one of the project's biggest drawcards, with buyers quickly snapping up the flexible residences.

More than half of the project's 36 dual key apartments have already sold, helping drive COMO beyond the 50 per cent sold mark within the first month of launch.

The strong response highlights growing demand for apartment designs that can adapt to changing lifestyles, with buyers increasingly looking for homes that accommodate multi-generational living, provide rental income opportunities or simply offer greater flexibility over time.

Located on the shores of Lake Orr, COMO will deliver 156 apartments across 16 levels, with the dual-key residences forming a limited release within the broader development.

Each combines a primary two-bedroom apartment with a fully self-contained studio on a single title, connected by a shared foyer and lockable internal door. The design allows owners to house ageing parents, adult children or guests while maintaining privacy, or lease the secondary residence to generate additional income.

Just 17 of the original 36 dual key apartments remain available.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=367096]

The innovative configuration combines two fully self-contained residences on a single title, typically comprising a primary two-bedroom apartment alongside a separate studio residence, connected via a shared foyer and lockable internal door.&nbsp;

The model is proving particularly attractive to owner occupiers navigating changing family dynamics and the realities of the current housing crisis.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363511]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/npa">NPA</a>&nbsp;CEO Andrew Erwin said dual key living was resonating strongly with modern buyers because it delivered both financial flexibility and practical lifestyle benefits.&nbsp;

“The housing crisis and rising cost of living are fundamentally changing how Australians think about home ownership,” Erwin said.&nbsp;

“Dual key apartments provide a genuine solution for families who want to stay connected while maintaining independence. Parents can help adult children save for a future home, ageing parents can remain nearby without moving into aged care, and owners still retain privacy and flexibility.

“Importantly, buyers are also recognising the financial advantages. It creates the opportunity to generate additional income from part of the home without the holding costs associated with owning a separate investment property.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363509]

Unlike traditional dual occupancy arrangements, the residences operate under a single title, meaning owners only incur one set of body corporate fees, council rates and holding costs.&nbsp;

The secondary residence can also evolve over time - functioning as guest accommodation, a home office, creative studio or private retreat before later becoming an income-producing asset.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/red-co">Red &amp; Co</a>&nbsp;Director and Co-Founder David Laverty said the strong early sales reflected growing buyer urgency and changing priorities within the market.&nbsp;

“Securing more than half of COMO’s residences within such a short timeframe is an outstanding result and a clear endorsement of both the design and location,” Laverty said.&nbsp;

“Buyers are responding to the combination of location, connectivity and amenity, but ultimately it’s value relative to other East Coast markets that is driving enquiry.”&nbsp;

“We’re also seeing strong interest from owner occupiers looking for homes that can adapt with them over time. Flexibility has become one of the most important considerations for buyers in today’s market.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363515]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, COMO features a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom residences with 2.7-metre ceilings and larger-format floorplans aimed at owner occupiers, downsizers and lifestyle-focused buyers.&nbsp;

The development will feature an extensive rooftop recreation and wellness offering including a 25-metre lap pool, sundeck, barbecue and dining areas, gym, sauna, plunge baths, landscaped gardens, wellness spaces and rooftop pickleball and paddleball courts.

The remaining dual key apartments range from 137 sqm to 167 sqm and include generous three-bedroom layouts with separate self-contained studio accommodation and dual parking.&nbsp;

Erwin said the dual key concept represented a broader shift in how Australians would live in the future.

“People want homes that can evolve with their lives,” he said.&nbsp;

“A dual key apartment can suit a family today, support an ageing parent tomorrow, and potentially generate income later on. That adaptability is becoming incredibly valuable in the current environment.”

Prices currently range from $2,115,750 to $2,583,000.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135546]

Inter-generational living drives demand for COMO’s dual key apartments as housing pressures reshape buyer priorities 

Builder-developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ceerose">Ceerose</a> has doubled down on its Leichhardt ambitions, lodging its second State Significant Development Application (SSDA) in the suburb in the last six months.

Their newest proposal seeks to transform a former industrial precinct into a new residential community centred around the adaptive reuse of one of the site's heritage warehouse buildings.

The new project, on a 6,930 sqm block at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/40-76-william-street-leichhardt-nsw-2040">40–76 William Street</a>, will bring more than 200 apartments to a suburb that has seen little to no new supply in recent years. It follows Ceerose's late 2025 SSDA for a mixed-use apartment project on nearby Parramatta Road, signalling the developer's growing investment in Sydney's Inner West.

Ceerose Founder Edward Doueihi told Apartments.com.au the developer’s long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West had given it a strong understanding of how the area has evolved and where its future opportunities lie.

“Ceerose has had a long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West, giving us a unique understanding of the area’s evolution and future potential,” Doueihi said.

“Having delivered projects throughout the region, we have witnessed the suburb’s transformation first-hand and understand the opportunities for its continued growth.”

Doueihi said that understanding also informed the planning process, with a comprehensive Stakeholder Engagement Outcomes Report prepared before the application was lodged.

The report identified the key issues and concerns raised by neighbouring residents and other stakeholders, allowing those matters to be considered and incorporated into the design where appropriate.

He said the delivery of additional housing would also play an important role in supporting the revitalisation of Norton Street and the Italian Forum.

“By increasing the local residential population, the development is expected to strengthen demand for local businesses, encourage further investment, and help restore the vibrancy that made the precinct a thriving destination in the early 2000s.”

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7258c54c-8167-479e-8361-2d5fca9915b4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010B%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%202.jpg?VersionId=S9DQfxu_jpcB5LrAEYFUbyMzg5odW6i5" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, the redevelopment would involve the demolition of four existing industrial buildings while retaining and adaptively reusing the site's most significant warehouse. The retained structure would anchor a new residential precinct comprising five interconnected buildings arranged around a large central landscaped courtyard, with heights stepping from five storeys along the surrounding residential streets to 11 storeys at the William Street corner.

According to the Architecture Design Report by Woods Bagot, the proposal "seeks to create a residential village centred around a generous green heart while celebrating the site's industrial heritage through the adaptive reuse of the existing warehouse building."

The development would comprise 203 apartments, with 188 proposed as build-to-sell residences, alongside 15 affordable housing apartments.

Rather than treating the retained warehouse as a standalone heritage object, Woods Bagot has sought to weave the site's industrial history throughout the masterplan. The proposal retains the north and west facades of the landmark corner warehouse, while new buildings reinterpret the site's brick-and-steel industrial language through their material palette and architectural expression.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9e8c64c2-881b-49e1-8c90-6b6acaaa45b6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010C%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%203.jpg?VersionId=Qm8_8H_Xrg_sc4Mdjc59vlAcKF_5wRTb" />

The design is organised around what Woods Bagot describes as a "green heart", a landscaped communal open space that reinstates the leafy character removed when the site became an industrial storage facility. A new pedestrian laneway running through the site would improve permeability between William, North and Francis streets, linking residents through landscaped public spaces while activating the ground plane.

Residents would have access to communal gardens and shared recreation areas distributed throughout the development. Sustainability has also been prioritised, with the project targeting an average 7.9-star NatHERS rating. Proposed initiatives include rooftop solar generation, rainwater harvesting, passive solar design, naturally ventilated lobbies, extensive cross-ventilation and the reuse of existing building fabric to reduce embodied carbon.

The adaptive reuse strategy became a defining feature of the application after heritage investigations found only one of the site's industrial buildings could feasibly be retained. The Heritage Impact Statement concludes that preserving the key warehouse façades while referencing the site's industrial character throughout the new development provides an appropriate balance between renewal and conservation.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="efffafdb-594f-4e2b-a067-921fd51c05e1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010D%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%204.jpg?VersionId=DPmE4.k16YRt0i27hEZVtJAffarpvUfx" />

"Retention and adaptation of the site buildings has been explored but found not to be feasible except for the tallest building, whose street facades will be retained," the heritage report states.

"The proposed building will interpret the brick and steel character of the subject site, including reuse of some components and construction of a large 'sawtooth' structure in the proposed open space."

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3bfef2b5-83f5-40cd-9cab-767092f34266" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010E%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%205.jpg?VersionId=7asb3i_ql4ybbuJOUb5UHBEIy0Q9t.DF" />

The William Street site is located around 300 metres from Leichhardt North Light Rail station and a short walk to Norton Street's retail, dining and hospitality precinct. The surrounding area has increasingly become a focus for urban renewal given its proximity to public transport and the Parramatta Road corridor.

Doueihi founded Ceerose in 1998 and has grown the business to become one of Sydney's more active apartment developers in recent years, with completed projects including The Alex Collective in Alexandria, Abbie's Lane in Annandale, and the award-winning Munro House in Elizabeth Bay. They are currently delivering Belgravia, 17 luxury apartments in Potts Point.

First look: Ceerose doubles down in Leichhardt with adaptive reuse of former warehouse site

Online Retail

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Retail turnover missed expectations of a 0.3 per cent increase in October, instead recording a decline (although the result rounded to 0.0 per cent, after an increase of just 0.2 per cent in September). 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fRlgDvETnfo/XejDNMrF7SI/AAAAAAAAzM4/WdfpBKe6ADcoogB09uIFwHT1xSL6eyW7wCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/RT1.jpg" width="640" height="352" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="1481">
The annual turnover increase continued to decline to a 2-year low of just 2.1 per cent.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-owUayf-hqCY/XejDMgYWAiI/AAAAAAAAzMw/yePFAgvBZn4gsu6pVNgHFLv0eGDSuVrBQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/RT2.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="811" data-original-width="1386">
The monthly decline was driven by clothing and footwear (-0.8 per cent), department stores (-0.8 per cent), and household goods (-0.2 per cent). 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-poYDqyXkXWk/XejDMwanRrI/AAAAAAAAzM0/s0QdBarf6ecabeAK-Cpx53yWn3DnvjE0ACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/RT3.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="791" data-original-width="1403">
At the state level there were monthly declines in New South Wales and Victoria, as well as in South Australia, perhaps in line with the asymmetric wealth effect thesis. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-I7RSCOh_YSg/XejDNa4522I/AAAAAAAAzM8/fFi9dFRtJOAW0QML8-TaElQCA8I2PLCvACNcBGAsYHQ/s640/RT4.jpg" width="640" height="360" data-original-height="785" data-original-width="1394">
For excellent analysis of online retail sales from data king James Foster, see here:
'Meanwhile, online retail spending lifted by a healthy 8.5% in October to $1.930bn according to the ABS's estimates to be up by 13.9% over the year. 
At 6.5% of total retail turnover, the online segment seems poised to rise to a record high next month on the back of Black Friday sales promotions.'
Overall, though, this was frankly another terrible result, with the only potential (if dubious) 'silver lining' argument being that some savings were being held back for Black Friday and Xmas shopping. 
Occam's Razor, but...
This calendar year began with the RBA still talking of the next move in interest rates being up, despite years of below-target inflation.
The experiment could have worked, but now that the central bank forecasts are being shredded the baying mob is growing increasingly restless.
Recent national accounts figures showed a healthy rise in government spending, but private demand sinking into the abyss. 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. 
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Retail turnover declines are woeful: Pete Wargent

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After two solid months of growth in August and September, online retail sales weakened in October, according to the latest NAB Online Retail Sales Index data.
Transactions went back -1.4 per cent over October, however year on year were up over seven percent despite slowing growth.
The largest sales category, homewares and appliances, recorded a significant monthly contraction in sales, and was a key contributor to the headline result. 
There was further improvement in sales growth for the second largest sales category, grocery and liquor.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/Online%20retail%20sales%20mom%20NAB.jpg" alt="">
This category was significantly impacted by the mid-year sales weakness, so much so, that its share of the online index has dropped from around 28% a year ago to about 26% now.
The smallest sales category, takeaway food, has been the most volatile in terms of sales growth; through this volatility, this category’s sales are up 80% when compared to the monthly sales of October 2018, and is almost 50% larger in the 12-months-to October 2019. 
 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/12/4/NAB%20MOM%20retail%20sales.jpg" alt="">
Alan Oster said, Chief Economist, NAB said, "The three most populous states represent just over 80% of all online sales, slightly above their share of the population. Of these large sales states, Victoria leads in year-on-year growth, with ACT and NT leading the smaller sales regions."
"On average, online sales growth in Victoria has been higher than NSW over the past couple of years. Consequently, the gap in spend share between the two is narrowing."
"Representing about two-thirds of all online sales, metropolitan areas recorded a bigger contraction in sales growth in October, relative to regional areas."
"This generally followed across all states except WA, where regional sales growth contraction was larger than metro areas. In addition, regional online retail continued to grow in NSW and SA, indicating that the headline contraction for these states was driven by metro areas."
"By merchant location, international retailers (+1.0%) grew strongly in the month, while domestic (-1.6%) retailers contracted."
"While key domestic categories of grocery and liquor, and personal and recreational continued to grow, it was insufficient to offset weakness in the sales categories of homewares and appliances, media, fashion, and department stores."
"Fashion, games and toys, and small sales category takeaway food contributed to the continued growth for international merchants, he concluded.
<address> </address>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Online retail sales weakens after strong growth: NAB

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Retail sales rose 0.1% in January, a disappointing result compared to consensus expectations of a 0.3% gain. Retail was coming off a 0.4% fall in the final month of 2018, so the muted January rise speaks to continued weakness carrying into early 2019.
Annual sales growth has slowed to 2.7%yr with the trend pace over the last six months closer to 2%yr.
The detail showed gains were confined to food sub-categories – both basic food and cafes &amp; restaurants up 0.3%mth – with non food categories down 0.1%mth on a combined basis. Within the latter: department stores booked another sizeable decline (–2.1%mth following –1.3% in Dec and a muted 0.4% gain in Nov); clothing was down 0.3% coming off a 3% fall in Dec but a strong 4.4% gain over Oct-Nov; and household goods retail was flat, coming off 0.8% gains in Nov and Dec. The 'other retail' category - mainly 'small ticket' discretionary items – posted a 0.7% gain.
The picture by state did have one slight positive with a solid 0.7% rise in NSW. The state had shown a much weaker finish to 2018, raising concerns that wealth effect drags were starting to bite harder. The Jan gain pares that weakness back a bit although trend sales are still weaker, flat lining vs slight 0.2% a month gains in most other states.
Looking by channel, online sales look to have posted a 2-3% gain for the month, with retail ex online down slightly (–0.1%mth).
By retailer size, small retailers reported a 0.6% fall with non food retailers driving the monthly gain amongst larger retailers. Despite this, large food retailers have still seen the best growth over the last year, sales up 4.9%yr on a combined basis, some of which relates to firmer pricing.
Separate data on vehicle sales have been mixed in early 2019. Our estimates suggest monthly seasonally adjusted sales rose in Jan but slipped back a touch in Feb. Seasonal adjustment is more problematic around this time of year so these moves should be treated with caution. Sales are still down about 10%yr. The Q4 national accounts detail showed a 1.5%qtr decline in consumer vehicle purchases, tracking a 6% annual pace of declines over the last three quarters of 2018.
Overall the slight gain in January retail sales indicates that the soft spending conditions over the second half of 2018 have extended into 2019. While sales may not be contracting in nominal terms they are likely to be down in volume terms once price changes are excluded.
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist for Westpac
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Matthew_Hassan-HHWHptmrw4

Australian retail sales tick up, just: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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Australian retail turnover fell 0.4 percent in December 2018, according to the latest Retail Trade figures from the ABS.
The Christmas decline follows a 0.5 percent rise in November 2018.
Online retail turnover contributed 5.6 per cent to total retail turnover in original terms in December 2018, down from 6.6 per cent in November 2018, highlighting the increasing importance of the November month for online sales.
In December 2017 online retail turnover contributed 4.8 per cent to total retail.
Westpac's Matthew Hassan said the results underscore weakness already apparent in the Q3 national accounts and point to disappointing momentum heading into 2019.
"The 0.4% dip in monthly sales was against market expectations of a flat finish," Hassan noted.
"The rising popularity of ‘Black Friday’ sales is drawing more retail sales into Oct-Nov.
Hassan said at 2.8% a year, annual growth in nominal retail sales is sluggish at best with the six month annualised pace below 2%. 
"Overall this was a weak update, slightly weaker than we had been anticipating and highlighting downside risks to the December quarter GDP.
"For the RBA it comes on top of a Q3 national accounts update that already showed disappointing conditions across the consumer and confirms that the weakness is sustained rather than part of the choppy quarter to quarter profile that has featured over the previous two years."
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/2/5/Retail1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/2/5/Retail1.jpg" alt=""> Source: ABS
The declines in December were the highest for household goods (-2.8 per cent) and clothing and footwear (-2.4 per cent).
There were also falls in Department stores (-1.1 per cent) and other retailing (-0.1 per cent).
The falls were partially offset by rises in food retailing (0.5 per cent) and cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (1.1 per cent).
In seasonally adjusted terms, there were falls in New South Wales (-0.6 per cent), Victoria (-0.5 per cent), the Australian Capital Territory (-1.8 per cent), Queensland (-0.1 per cent), South Australia (-0.3 per cent), the Northern Territory (-0.3 per cent), and Tasmania (-0.2 per cent.). 
The only state to have a rise in December 2018 was Western Australia (0.1 per cent).  The trend estimate for Australian retail turnover rose 0.2 per cent in December 2018, following a rise of 0.2 per cent in November 2018. Compared to December 2017, the trend estimate rose 3.2 per cent.
 
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Online December sales dip along with bricks and mortar retail sales

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Online retail sales accelerated over 2018 but were slower over the month of November, according to the latest data from NAB's Online Retail Sales Index (NORSI).
ABS data on traditional retailers showed month on month seasonally adjusted sales rose (0.3%) in October 2018, outpaced by NORSI which grew 0.9% in that month.
NAB estimates put Australian online spend at around $28.86 billion over the 12 months to November 2018, which is equivalent to 9.0% of spending at traditional bricks &amp; mortar retailers, as measured by the ABS.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/10/NAB%20online%20retail.JPG" alt="">
The fastest growth in online retail sales over the year was recorded by department stores whose sales accelerated 10.6%.
Online grocery and liquor sales was again the second fastest category, growing 19.1% over the year to October.
Online sales in the personal and recreational category grew 12.4%, while media sales grew 14.6%, fashion grew 15.5%, and games and toys grew 55.5%.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/Subscriber%20strip%20ad.jpg" alt=""></a>
Food catering grew 6.7% and the and the smallest spend share category, daily deals grew 5.7%.
The largest sales category, homewares and appliances contracted slightly.
SME merchants represent over 35% of all online sales. 
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Australian online spending equaled 9% of spending at brick and mortar stores: NAB

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Last week, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City held its much anticipated annual central banking conference in Jackson Hole. This year’s topic “Changing Market Structures and Implications for Monetary Policy” garnered even more attention than usual.
This was in no small part because it highlighted that macroeconomists and central bankers now care a lot about what used to be the province of other fields of economics – what firms are doing. As a result, part of the mystery of why advanced economies have had a decade of low inflation and low wage growth is being unlocked.
One of the most interesting papers went right to this issue. Alberto Cavallo of Harvard Business School examined how online retailing – involving easily discoverable prices that are often determined by algorithms – can change the pricing behaviour of more traditional retailers and, it turn, impact inflation overall.
Could it be that the new economy has fundamentally changed how prices are set across the economy, thereby changing inflation dynamics and what our Reserve Bank is prepared to permit? If so it could have a significant effect on the so-called “real economy”.
The short answer is – quite possibly. But the details are both fascinating and important.
Cavallo makes use of data from the Billion Prices Project, which he co-founded with Roberto Rigobon, which scrapes price data from the internet. It contains more than 15 million daily prices, from 1000 retailers, across 60 countries, since 2008 (disclosure: Rigobon and I were colleagues at MIT). Cavallo adds country of origin data from Walmart products and product descriptions from Amazon to construct a proxy for online competition of each good. His data go down to the zip-code level so he can look at how prices vary within the US.
Cavallo shows that price changes have been happening more frequently. Multi-channel retailers – who sell both online and in “bricks-and-mortar” stores – have gone from changing prices once every 6.7 months in 2008–2010 to every 3.7 months in 2014–2017. Often these changes are cuts. This “rapid change effect” is strongest in categories like electronics and household goods, where online retailers have high market share.
The clear conclusion is that online competition is intense due to the easy availability of information about competitors’ pricing, and the ability to change prices cheaply, quickly, and often even algorithmically. Added to this is that charging different prices in different locations seems, from the data, to be harder than before because consumers can find out.
As one might expect, this also facilitates the rapid passthrough of shocks to prices that come from movements in exchange rates or fuel prices.
All of this means that there is more of a lid on prices than in the past – so lower average inflation – this is the “Amazon effect”. This would help explain why the US has 3.9% unemployment but no sign yet of runaway inflation.
The other implication is that retail prices are less insulated from macroeconomic shocks than in the past. This makes it harder to central banks to glean how the economy is travelling. In essence, prices contain more noise and less signal.
For Australia and the Reserve Bank the implications are similar, if a little more muted than in the US. Online retailing is not yet as widespread. But in many ways it doesn’t need to be widespread to discipline prices. The mere possibility that goods can be purchased online is enough to discipline traditional retailers.
As game theorists like to say, “out-of-equilibrium threats matter”. This could be a leading explanation for why inflation is low in Australia despite low interest rates and relatively low unemployment.
Because the Australian dollar is fairly volatile and we do import goods worth about 20% of GDP the “noise-to-signal” effect could be particularly strong in Australia – making things harder for the Reserve Bank.
The new economy has changed the overall economy in a host of ways from casualisation and the gig-economy to lower prices and new products. It will probably lead to a new era of monetary policy, but we don’t know what. As Reserve governor Phil Lowe is fond of saying: “time will tell”.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102338/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Richard Holden, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, UNSW
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-online-retailing-is-changing-our-lives-whether-we-use-it-or-not-102338" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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rh-YsoTT2xMuQ

Online retailing is changing our lives, whether we use it or not: Richard Holden

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Australians once lax expectations concerning retail delivery times are changing and service providers must adjust, a new survey suggests.
The retail goal posts are shifting, and as a result, businesses need to transform entirely.
CBRE has released a research report about the "Omni-Channel Revolution" the rise of and the importance of melding of shopping, advertising, delivery and payment into one unified buying experience in an increasingly online world.
A shopper’s journey now spans across bricks and mortar stores, social media, apps, desktops and other mobile devices. Constant digital connectivity is a driving force behind evolving customer experience and fulfilment expectations and over 80% of all Australians own a smart phone the newest tool for online shopping.
Online spending in Australia currently accounts for approximately 9% of all retail trade, with this expected to rise to 12% by 2022 accounting for roughly AU$24.4 billion to AU$43.1 billion.
It is estimated that by 2020, a third of in-store retail sales will be in some way influenced by the web. This growth in e-commerce sales will generate demand for an additional 350,000 square metres of distribution space annually. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/6/6/Omni%20Figure%201.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/6/6/Omni%20Figure%201.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/6/6/Omni%20Figure%201.png" alt=""></a>
In CBRE’s Asia Pacific Millennial Survey, online shopping was selected as the most frequent method of purchasing goods, with respondents shopping online an average 4.9 days in Australia. However, millennials frequent bricks and mortar stores more than other generations preferring to make a final transaction in-store. This demonstrates the necessity of an omni-channel strategy to attract shoppers.
Retailers benefit from incorporating omni-channel operations into their business with successful omni-channel operations shown to improve loyalty, and repeat visitation to the retailer’s stores increasing up to 23% after strong omni-channel engagement.
Omni-channel engagement provides tailored analytics and by analysing customer data, retailers can more easily target a specific market through the most successful channel.
Greater choice in products and services is also dictating where individuals spend money, as a result shoppers are not as brand-loyal as they used to be so positive experiences for customers are vital for repeat sales and the ability to offer personalised services will prove crucial for both attracting business and building customer loyalty.
A McKinsey study showed that 25% of consumers were willing to pay extra for same day or instant delivery and this is expected to increase in coming years as just over 30% of millennial customers are more likely to choose same-day and instant delivery.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/6/6/Omni%20Figure%202.png" alt="">
However reverse supply chain operations are equally important, with growing costs on both retailers and the environment as the volume of returns results in roughly two billion kilograms of goods being sent straight to landfill each year in the US alone because the cost of processing the return exceeds the cost of disposing of it.
Strong returns policies create customer loyalty and if a returns process is not easy, cheap and efficient, shoppers are not likely to use that retailer again, whereas if it is, 92% of consumers would consider making another purchase through that retailer.
It is estimated that approximately 30% of all goods sold online are returned, and 30% of these returned products never find their way on to a secondary consumer, when observing returns of clothing and apparel is 40%, which in 2017 means $2.32 billion of goods were sent back to retailers costing them 10-20% of their profits. 
Research found that 19% of the Top 250 retailers profitably fulfil omni-channel demand and that 28%. Total transportation cost is in the last kilometre meaning there is a growing competition for companies to secure warehousing and short term storage closer and closer to domestic centres. Particularly as Australian cities are built around ports meaning that industrial sites in these areas will be hotly contested as significant amounts of new logistics space will be required. 
Omni-channel retail and logistics in Australia is still evolving, and the cost of implementing last-kilometre delivery solutions for retailers, combined with Australia’s low population density, means same-day delivery and fulfilment is still a work in progress with the average delivery time in Australia being 3-10 business days, however despite this the convergence of retail and logistics is well underway.
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Retail purchasing facing omni-channel revolution: CBRE

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Online retail giant Amazon’s decision to block Australian shoppers from its US website has prompted an outpouring of anger from its customers. However, economic statistics indicate the actual value of online purchased products entering Australia from international marketplaces is relatively low. While some shoppers will be disappointed by Amazon’s decision, others will simply find ways around the geoblock.
The federal government has been <a href="https://www.2gb.com/gst-on-online-shopping-should-have-happened-ten-years-ago-gerry-harvey-says/" target="_blank">under pressure from legacy retailers like Gerry Harvey</a>, who have called for an end to the GST exemption on overseas online purchases worth less than A$1,000.
Federal Treasurer Scott Morrison last year <a href="http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansardr%2F345ee0b5-7f9d-47ea-a37c-53d1b10edff0%2F0030%22" target="_blank">introduced legislation</a> for this measure, arguing it will “establish a level playing field for our domestic retailers”. From July 1, 2018, GST will apply to all overseas online purchases.
The Australian Retailers Association has proposed a “<a href="https://www.retail.org.au/mediacentre/ara-calls-productivity-commission-widen-net-gst/" target="_blank">vendor collection model</a>” under which foreign retailers would collect the GST at the time of purchase and then pay it to the Australian Taxation Office.
But the fact is that these measures won’t level the playing field. Overseas online prices for many items are so low that that even if GST were added, they would still be <a href="https://www.choice.com.au/shopping/online-shopping/buying-online/articles/buying-cheaper-clothing-online" target="_blank">far cheaper than they are in Australia</a>. For example, a recent search showed Levi’s 510 jeans for A$115 at Myer, compared with A$74.85 in the United States; and a Uniqlo Women’s ultralight down jacket for A$200 here, versus A$154.10 over there.
In 2017 Australians spent an estimated <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/NORSI-DEC-2017.pdf" target="_blank">A$24.2 billion online</a>. Yet this is just 7.8% of the amount spent at bricks-and-mortar shops. And more than 80% of online spending was through domestic retailers, which are subject to GST.
With only A$4.84 billion spent via overseas retailers, a quick calculation indicates that adding 10% GST to those purchases would have added A$484 million to the government’s coffers last year.
<h2>Why has Amazon blocked Australia?</h2>
Amazon has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2018/05/31/world/asia/ap-as-australia-amazon" target="_blank">blamed the new GST rules</a> for its decision to bar Australian shoppers, arguing that the vendor collection model would create significant operational difficulties:
<blockquote>
While we regret any inconvenience this may cause customers, we have had to assess the workability of the legislation as a global business with multiple international sites.
</blockquote>
Yet rival online seller eBay seems to have managed to <a href="https://sellercentre.ebay.com.au/content/gst-fees-ebaycomau" target="_blank">implement the vendor collection model</a> without undue trouble. It looks as if Amazon, which generated <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/266282/annual-net-revenue-of-amazoncom/" target="_blank">almost US$180 billion in sales last year</a>, views the Australian market as just too small to justify the hassle. In fact, one study has estimated that Amazon will only gain a <a href="https://www.macquarie.com/au/advisers/expertise/market-insights/is-amazon-the-end-of-australian-retail-as-we-know-it/" target="_blank">16% share of Australian online retail sales by 2025</a>.
Amazon’s view on Australia’s red tape may well be right. Modelling by Australia Post suggests that if the postal service were tasked with assessing and collecting the GST on international deliveries, it would cost almost A$900 million to collect A$300 million in revenue.
<h2>Who are the winners and losers?</h2>
As mentioned above, Amazon probably won’t suffer much from cutting loose its relatively small Australian customer base. But what about the customers themselves, and Amazon’s competitors?
When <a href="https://www.amazon.com.au/" target="_blank">Amazon Australia</a> (not to be confused with the now geoblocked US site) launched in December 2017, just in time for the Christmas rush, <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/industries/retail/amazon-australia-3-8-million-aussies-december" target="_blank">3.8 million Australians visited the site</a> during that month alone. But this is well short of the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/does-amazon-australias-retail-launch-spell-the-end-of-ebay-20171205-gzywck" target="_blank">11 million Australian shoppers</a> who visit eBay each month.
Amazon’s withdrawal will undoubtedly benefit eBay and other sites such as <a href="https://www.alibaba.com/countrysearch/AU/australia" target="_blank">Alibaba</a>, which look set to attract shoppers who are still hungry for an international bargain.
While some dedicated fans of Amazon’s US site are <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/we-regret-any-inconvenience-this-may-cause-amazon-to-stop-shipping-to-australia-from-july-1/news-story/f90d87e59d29cc589ea9c184f3f5f40b" target="_blank">understandably annoyed</a>, most customers simply won’t notice the difference. Customers will be automatically directed to Amazon’s domestic offering, which claims to stock more than 60 million products.
For Australia’s traditional retailers, the playing field still isn’t really “level”, even without access to Amazon US. Don’t expect everyone to suddenly start banging down Harvey Norman’s doors come July 1. In reality the impact will be minimal.
<h2>How to get around the geoblock</h2>
For the very determined shopper who demands access to Amazon US, there are naturally ways around geoblocking technology, such as re-shipping services, freight forwarders, and <a href="https://www.choice.com.au/electronics-and-technology/internet/internet-privacy-and-safety/articles/bypass-geo-blocking" target="_blank">VPNs</a>.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/97612/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">But given that the <a href="https://gopages.neto.com.au/rs/618-SCT-255/images/The%20State%20of%20Ecommerce%20Guide%202017.pdf" target="_blank">average online shopping basket</a> was worth A$145 in 2017, it seems like a lot of trouble to go to just to avoid paying A$14.50.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gary-mortimer-1322" target="_blank">Gary Mortimer</a>, Associate Professor in Marketing and International Business, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/queensland-university-of-technology-847" target="_blank">Queensland University of Technology</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/fear-not-shoppers-amazons-australian-geoblock-wont-cramp-your-style-97612" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Online overseas shopping not prevalent before Amazon geoblock

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The Amazon effect has clearly set in.
Long before the online retail giant stepped into Australia, there was nervousness among retailers here.
Now, with Amazon officially launching its marketplace, Myers and Woolworths are among those who are preparing for the increased competition. So are other leading retailers such as JB Hifi and Harvey Norman, among others.
Myer has come up with The Myer Market, which launched recently and is a marketplace that allows third parties to sell their wares, similar to eBay.
At Woolworth's annual general meeting, its Chairman Gordon Cairns said the supermarket chain was ramping up its online offering in response to Amazon’s entry.
Meanwhile, at Mirvac's annual meeting in November, its chief executive Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz said she was looking forward to Amazon’s arrival.
"Our view is that the fear is far worse than the reality's going to be," Lloyd-Hurwitz told The Australian Financial Review after the AGM.
Mirvac’s portfolio includes the country's most productive mall, the Broadway, in uptown Sydney.
Mirvac's specialty sales growth, a key indicator, is also rising. In the September quarter, specialty sales growth hit 6 per cent among Mirvac's malls, unlike many other malls 
As online shopping surges, it has also had another effect.
Real estate developers are investing record sums of money into new warehouse space, building bigger, taller structures to meet the needs of e-commerce - and the robots that help it along, Bloomberg reported.
Builders spent $US2.7 billion on US warehouse construction in October, the most since the census started keeping track in 1993.
The size of the average warehouse completed this year was 188,000 square feet, more than double the size in 2001, according to a CBRE report cited by Bloomberg.
"It's the notion of the endless aisle," said Joe Dunlap, a managing director at CBRE.
A retailer stocking 30,000 items in its stores might offer 10 times as many items for sale online. More stock means larger footprints. Higher ceilings accommodate mezzanine levels, letting operators cram more shelves into a building.
Amazon recently bought more than 2 hectares of land in Sydney’s southwest, next to a warehouse it has a lease for. It paid $7 million for the land, according to News.com.au.
Earlier this year, Amazon secured its first distribution centre in Melbourne's outer south eastern suburbs (picture above).
The online retail giant had earlier missed its widely anticipated launch on Black Friday.
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