Just a few months after acquiring a prime Broadbeach site on the corner of First Avenue and Surf Parade, family-run developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/raptis">Raptis</a> has filed fresh plans for a new apartment development.

Raptis is seeking to deliver a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/17-19-first-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4217">29-storey tower with 73 apartments</a> on the 818 sqm site. It will be the developer's seventh project in the suburb, as they are approaching completion of The Sterling on George Avenue.

There will be a pool, barbecue and outdoor dining area, residents lounge and dining, sauna and steam room, gym, and a Yoga and Pilates studio.

<img alt="Raptis" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b554da3f-7344-49aa-b1c9-44cf459af0d7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-05%20at%2010.41.45%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=zzjWu1iO1wnuYv4EV4fyOyf5nSXjGYut" />

Raptis Joint Managing Director, Evan Raptis, says they remain&nbsp;committed to developing quality infill sites across the Gold Coast in the lead-up to the 2032 Brisbane Olympics.

"This project continues our long track record of delivery in Broadbeach, and we look forward to bringing another premium development to this thriving precinct."

The announcement follows strong delivery momentum for Raptis, with The Sterling Broadbeach nearing completion and construction well underway on the final stage of the Waterpoint community adjacent to Harbour Town. The developer's continued investment in the Gold Coast reflects confidence in the region's apartment market fundamentals, underpinned by sustained Southeast Queensland population growth.&nbsp;

The outlook for the region is further bolstered by infrastructure investment tied to the Brisbane 2032 Olympic Games, which is expected to drive continued economic and population growth across the SEQ corridor.&nbsp;

Subject to a favourable response from Gold Coast City Council, construction on the new First Avenue tower is targeted to commence before the end of 2026.&nbsp;

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/it-s-all-in-the-family-four-decades-later-raptis-continues-to-shape-the-gold-coast-skyline">It’s all in the family: Four decades later, Raptis continues to shape the Gold Coast skyline</a>

Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/raptis-secures-prime-surf-parade-site-for-next-broadbeach-apartment-development">Raptis secures prime Surf Parade site for next Broadbeach apartment development</a> 
&nbsp;

Gold Coast developer brings seventh Broadbeach project to market, targeting construction commencement before year end

Joel Robinson

First look: Raptis lodges plans for new 29-storey Broadbeach tower 

Brisbane development veteran Kevin Seymour's Seymour Group is set to deepen its presence on one of Brisbane's most tightly held riverfront addresses, lodging revised plans for a luxury apartment development on Oxlade, just a few doors down from The Oxlade, which it completed in 2024.

The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/70-72-oxlade-drive-new-farm-qld-4005">new project at 70-72 Oxlade Drive</a>, directly north of The Oxlade, will have 27 apartments across a seven-storey building&nbsp;overlooking the Brisbane River and Merthyr Park. It's a revision from a 2021-approved design.

Designed by bureau^proberts, the project has evolved from the previously approved 26-apartment scheme, introducing an additional penthouse level while maintaining a low-density, boutique character. The development will comprise 26 three-bedroom apartments and a single four-bedroom penthouse, supported by two basement levels with 86 car spaces and 34 bicycle spaces.

The architectural response is centred around two distinct building forms separated by a landscaped open-air atrium.&nbsp;"This dual composition captures and embraces Brisbane’s subtropical environment whilst breaking down built form and scale," the submission to the Brisbane City Council noted.

<img alt="First look: Seymour Group returns to Oxlade Drive with revised riverfront apartment plans in New Farm" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c12d84d0-bc11-4067-b46f-5bd2d786a34d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/new%20farm%20landscape.png?VersionId=YEPc2k5CAdh6aAPlu4uVpgZadh4MEfRd" />

A defining feature of the design is a deep landscaped void running through the centre of the building, creating what bureau^proberts describes as a "natural ravine" that enhances airflow, daylight penetration and resident amenity. The design report notes that the separation of the two building volumes is intended to maximise natural light, cross-ventilation and outlook while strengthening connections to the surrounding riverfront setting.

Curved balcony edges, integrated planting and extensive landscaping throughout the façade reinforce the subtropical design approach. The building's façade is softened by elevated gardens and planter beds, creating a green edge that complements the established landscape character of Oxlade Drive and neighbouring Merthyr Park.

New Farm has become one of Brisbane's most sought-after suburbs for developers delivering premium downsizer-focused apartments.

GRAYA has been particularly active in the precinct, completing both Chalk and York in recent years, while construction of Moray House, being delivered for Spyre, is now nearing completion. Architect-turned-developer Joe Adsett recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/arcilla-new-farm-by-joe-adsett-28-maxwell-street-new-farm-qld-4005">Arcilla on Maxwell Street</a>, an exclusive collection of just nine apartments.

First look: Seymour Group returns to New Farm's Oxlade Drive with riverfront apartment plans

A new residential tower will be the first piece of a broader mixed-use precinct set to reshape a prominent Newcastle West site, with local developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> bringing its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/cambridge-quarter-newcastle-west-12-denison-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Cambridge Quarter</a> vision to market.

The first release, Tempo, will introduce 87 apartments across a 24-storey tower, marking Stage 1 of the residential component of a larger urban regeneration project planned for the western end of Newcastle's city centre, encompassing the former Cambridge Hotel site.

Positioned on Denison Street, Tempo has been designed as the inaugural building within Cambridge Quarter, a precinct that will ultimately combine apartments, retail activation and revitalised public spaces including the revamping of the Cambridge Hotel.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135876 project_image_fid=368853]

The tower will comprise a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, including layouts with multipurpose rooms, catering to a broad cross-section of owner-occupiers. Apartment sizes range from around 60 sqm to 192 sqm, with a number of residences oriented to capture views across Newcastle Harbour, the city skyline and coastline.

GWH has emphasised liveability in the design, with open-plan layouts extending to generous balconies and terraces. Residents will have a choice of two interior palettes, while specifications include engineered stone benchtops, SMEG appliances, full-height bathroom tiling and secure building access. Premium upgrade packages will also be available.

Multiple rooftop resident retreats will provide communal outdoor space overlooking the harbour and city, offering an elevated amenity layer above the activity of the precinct below.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135876 project_image_fid=368851]

The broader Cambridge Quarter vision extends beyond the residential tower itself. Ground-level retail activation and landscaped public areas are planned throughout the precinct, creating a walkable neighbourhood environment connected to the surrounding renewal of Newcastle West. The Cambridge Hotel is also earmarked for future redevelopment into a family-friendly hospitality venue integrated with the new precinct.

The project is strategically positioned within walking distance of Newcastle Interchange, providing access to light rail, regional rail services and direct connections to Sydney. Residents will also be close to Honeysuckle, Newcastle Harbour and the city's beaches and coastal walkways.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135876 project_image_fid=368852]

For GWH, Cambridge Quarter represents one of its most significant Newcastle developments to date. The locally based developer, which has operated in the Hunter region since 1995, describes the project as a new chapter in the ongoing transformation of Newcastle West.

GWH Executive Director Jonathan Craig said the project had been shaped by a focus on creating lasting community connections.

"We take pride in creating places that last. Spaces where people feel connected, comfortable and a genuine sense of belonging," Craig said.

"Cambridge Quarter is something we are truly proud of, a place shaped by local knowledge, built with care and designed to be part of Newcastle's next chapter."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135876]

GWH unveils first release at landmark Cambridge Quarter precinct in Newcastle West

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ss-projects">S&amp;S Projects</a>,&nbsp;Rainbow Bay's busiest developer,&nbsp;has officially lodged plans for the largest development in its booming local portfolio, seeking approval for a further 88 apartments on Boundary Street.

The proposal&nbsp;at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">209–213 Boundary Street, Coolangatta</a>,&nbsp;marks the next chapter in the developer's transformation of the southern Gold Coast beachside precinct. It will be its fifth in the area, having already delivered Flow, Awaken and Esprit, while construction continues on the 38-apartment Radia. The new project would rise 57 metres above a consolidated 1,518 sqm site, on the same street as Radia and Esprit.

&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker</a>, the proposed development comprises 88 two and three-bedroom apartments across a contemporary podium-and-tower form that integrates extensive landscaping from street level through to the rooftop.

The tower would be delivered above a basement and multi-level podium accommodating resident and visitor parking, with the residential component commencing from level three. The design incorporates cascading planting throughout the façade, landscaped podium edges, and deep planting zones along the Boundary Street frontage.

<img alt="First look: S&amp;S Projects lodges plans for 88-apartment wellness tower at Coolangatta's Boundary Street" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="677e6615-b5c0-4b6c-b4f9-efb14fcde1a6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ss%20da%20pers.png?VersionId=YOnPKQm7IFXv0M5H326djEpxk80500Hi" />

A key feature of the development is its expansive rooftop wellness and recreation precinct. Plans reveal a resort-style pool deck, gymnasium, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, rooftop terraces, barbecue areas and landscaped relaxation spaces positioned to capture views across the southern Gold Coast coastline.

The rooftop wellness focus builds on the vision S&amp;S Projects first outlined when it acquired the site for $20.25 million last year.

"We are taking every advantage to create a truly unique rooftop wellness experience with a natural feel for residents, offering stone features throughout and an underlying theme that emulates a botanical garden," S&amp;S Projects founder and director Paul Gedoun said at the time.

The proposal seeks a 57-metre building height, representing a 50 per cent uplift on the site's mapped 38-metre height limit. Planning documents argue the additional height is consistent with recently approved and emerging towers in the immediate Boundary Street and Rainbow Bay precinct.

Urbis, acting as planning consultant, said the development would provide "88 dwellings, comprising a mix of two and three-bedroom apartments, contributing to housing choice and supply within an established medium to high-rise coastal urban neighbourhood."

The scheme has undergone extensive pre-lodgement consultation with the City of Gold Coast, with the design refined following feedback relating to architectural expression, landscaping, traffic access and podium treatment.

<img alt="S&amp;S" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0a2d70fd-62ac-4b83-97c6-b798fc1243dd" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-05%20at%209.16.31%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=yHmghUwKM3IVGpBktQU1mE.0Lpf3WimG" />

The architectural team is led by Brisbane-based Cottee Parker, one of Australia's most active residential design studios, with landscape architecture by Dunn + Moran. The consultant team also includes ADG Engineers, Windtech and Acoustic Works.

S&amp;S Projects has become one of the most influential private developers operating on the southern Gold Coast. Since entering Rainbow Bay in 2022, the company has assembled a portfolio exceeding $1 billion in end value, establishing itself as a key player in the area's evolution into a premium apartment destination. Pezet Matheson will again handle the sales for S&amp;S.

Coolangatta is entering another wave of apartment development, following the delivery of several prominent residential projects in recent years.

John Kearney's Immerse Projects will launch&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kaiya-kirra-beach-5-haig-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Kaiya on Haig Street</a>&nbsp;soon, meanwhile, Palm Beach-based Sherpa Property Group is preparing to bring its debut Coolangatta development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-viver-87-griffith-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Flourish Viveré</a>, to market later this year, subject to approvals.

First look: S&S Projects proposes 88-apartment wellness tower at Coolangatta's Boundary Street

A landmark former orphanage site in Surrey Hills could be transformed into a new residential community under plans lodged by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/antipodean-land-developments">Antipodean Land Developments</a> that would deliver 76 apartments and townhouses while restoring some of the suburb's most significant heritage buildings.

The burgeoninng Melbourne-based developer has submitted plans for the 9,158 sqm site at 1 Kent Road and 24 Durham Road, home to the former St Joseph's Home for Destitute Children, a historic institutional complex dating back to the late 19th century. The proposal seeks to adaptively reuse several heritage buildings while introducing two new four-storey residential buildings set within extensive landscaped grounds.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> and Kerstin Thompson Architects, the project has been conceived as a contemporary residential village embedded within a restored heritage precinct. The development team describes the design approach as "The Village in the Garden," with new buildings positioned among mature landscaping by OCULUS and significant heritage structures.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="44ec8c1b-c0b6-44ae-859e-5811b3e6a023" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%281%29.png?VersionId=p.p1_KFh4iQoV4nisdnPfQBAsWNi7m79" />

The proposal would deliver 76 dwellings comprising a mix of apartments and duplex-style residences, significantly increasing housing supply on one of the largest privately held residential landholdings in Surrey Hills. The development includes 127 car spaces, 24 bicycle spaces and more than 1,000 sqm of communal amenity, with the existing chapel building earmarked for conversion into resident facilities.

According to the planning submission, the project centres on the restoration and adaptive reuse of the site's most significant heritage assets, including the original c.1889 St Joseph's building, the chapel designed by architect Augustus Andrew Fritsch, and the historic brick perimeter walls and entry gates. The proposal also incorporates the retention of other contributory buildings including the former infirmary and school building.

Tract Consultants, in the planning report accompanying the application, said the scheme had been shaped through extensive heritage analysis and design development.

"The shared vision for the Site by the project team has culminated in a scheme which successfully breathes life back into a historic site while delivering upon the objectives of Victoria's Housing Statement in a carefully curated and contextually responsive manner."

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7263b7d8-95ea-400f-9531-6ca7d22c3c33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%282%29.png?VersionId=4cR1tiWOsDpgxEOwZi5vVFcyvvOsYkIE" />

The proposal is being assessed under Victoria's Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway. As part of the application, three per cent of the project's residential development cost would be contributed to the Social Housing Growth Fund. The development would also provide a diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom residences targeting a broader range of buyers than typically found in Surrey Hills' detached housing market.

Sustainability initiatives include an anticipated 66 per cent BESS score, natural cross-ventilation to 80 per cent of apartments, 28 per cent deep soil landscaping and a canopy cover outcome exceeding local planning requirements. The proposal also sets aside more than 1,083 sqm for communal indoor and outdoor resident amenity spaces.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="33fad46f-fe26-4d0a-acfd-6b776e1c6a3d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design.png?VersionId=D9F6WVSyYCtGvSUmith35LRp6R7PQkw_" />

Planning documents describe the property as one of the largest underutilised residential sites in Surrey Hills, arguing it presents a rare opportunity to introduce "missing middle" housing in an established inner-eastern suburb while preserving and revitalising a significant heritage precinct.

Antipodean Land Developments has built a reputation for design-focused residential projects across Melbourne, particularly in the medium-density sector. Previous developments include Neighbourhood in Brunswick East, delivered with Breathe Architecture, and Balfe Park Lane, designed by Kerstin Thompson Architects.

They've been very active in site acquisition as they build out their future development pipeline. They recently launched Thornubury House, 45 apartments above a mix of commercial, retail, and food and beverage tenancies, and have plans for a boutique project in Fitzroy and another <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/antipodean-plan-apartments-for-deepdenes-missing-middle-on-whitehorse-road">"missing middle" project</a> on Deepdene's Whitehorse Road.

First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills

Mining Investment

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It may be the biggest mistake property investors make: once they have bought something, they stop researching.
There’s a common mentality among real estate consumers that the need to stay informed disappears once you’ve fulfilled your buying criteria.
Prior to purchase, some (not all) will spend some time and/or money on research and advice. But they won’t make the same effort, or any effort, to stay informed beyond acquisition. 
I recently hosted a webinar in which Melbourne buyers’ agent and author Miriam Sandkuhler was the guest presenter. One of the key points she impressed upon her audience was the importance of a regular review of your property portfolio and your overall goals and strategies.
Most Australians don’t do that. Set and forget seems to be the overriding philosophy. And many with that approach get caught in bad situations.
Hotspotting receives a lot of distress calls from investors who bought in locations where property values have fallen subsequently.
Sometimes they’ve bought in locations that were never going to perform. But often they’ve bought in an area that delivers growth initially, until something fundamental changes. That causes a downturn in the market – but investor owners often find out too late.
Queensland boom-bust industrial city Gladstone provides a case study. Five or six years ago, this looked like a good place to invest, with three gas projects worth a combined $60 billion (bringing tens of thousands of jobs) poised to start construction. And, for a couple of years, that promise was borne out by results. Rents and prices rose strongly.
But then big changes occurred in that market. One was that developers had flocked in large numbers to that market and too much new product was being built. The problem was exacerbated by the second fundamental shift, which was the decision by the resources companies to use primarily FIFO workforces with personnel staying in temporary accommodation camps, rather than buying or renting local dwellings.
We wrote extensively about the shift in that market and the likely consequences. The message was: stay out of that market – or, if you already own there, now might be a good time to sell before the market drops.
But many of those who had already bought in Gladstone had tuned out. They no longer had their finger on the pulse. By the time many owners realised the tide had turned against them, it was too late to sell without taking a loss.
Anyone who bought in coal-mining town Moranbah in the early part of the century would have enjoyed a decade of the most spectacular capital growth in Australian history. If they’d sold at any point before 2013, they would have made lots of money.
Then the market turned for reasons that are similar to those for Gladstone, with the added element of the big downturn in coal prices. What followed by the polar opposite of the previous spectacular growth. 
Similar, though less dramatic, scenarios are being played out regularly in markets around Australia. Two or three years ago the middle-market suburbs on Brisbane’s northside were market leaders for sales activity and price growth. Small to medium sized developers saw an opportunity and suddenly these areas are awash with development of new units and townhouses. Vacancies have risen to unacceptable levels in some suburbs. 
If you bought something in that precinct two years ago and then focused on other things, you’re probably not aware of the change in the market.
The message again and again is: you can’t stop the research process just because you’ve filled your current buying criteria. You need to stay up to date. And you need to conduct that regular review of your investment situation suggested by Miriam Sandkuhler.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Property price slides in mining towns Gladstone, Moranbah playing out around Australia

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The Australian property market generally performed well in the June quarter, according to the Residex research group.
The Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane markets saw strong gains over the June quarter, with the exception of Brisbane units.
The resource markets in WA and NT continued their decline, however the pace of the declines has slowed. 
Table 1: June 2016 Summary
<a href="/images/2016/08/04/700_table_1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/08/04/700_table_1.jpg" alt="">
Source: Residex
Australia wide, the median house increased in value by a very modest 0.03 percent during the June quarter, while units increased by 2.58 percent.
However, the strong growth in the unit market follows a 1 percent decline in the previous quarter. Graph 1 shows quarterly growth over the last 10 years.
Graph 1: Quarterly Growth in Australian Houses &amp; Units
<a href="/images/2016/08/04/Graph_1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/08/04/Graph_1.jpg" alt="">
Source: Residex
"Recent divergence between the performances of the different dwelling types may be partially explained by the growth cycles of houses and units being unsynchronised," Eliza Owen, market analyst for Onthehouse.com.au/Residex said.
"At times, the unit market appears to have led the house market.
"This can be seen in Graph 1 in the upswing of 2009 and again in 2012-2013.
"As property has become increasingly used for investment purposes, and units become popular amongst investors, unit investment from speculators may provide first movement in the market.
"This early signal may then flow through to other segments of the market, adding to momentum and overall demand," she said.
Other explanations for the divergence may be the relative affordability of units, or units becoming an increasingly preferred dwelling for locations in cities.
"In Sydney, the house market saw strong growth of almost 3% in the June quarter – largely driven by capital gains in June," Eliza Owen said.
Sydney houses grew 8.02% in the 12 months to June, increasing the median value by $55,000. However, this annual growth rate is down from a peak in the growth cycle of 21.95% in September 2015 when the median Sydney house increased $172,000 over the year. Growth in Sydney may ease further as dollar rents are stagnating in units and falling in houses.
A similar surge in the June quarter occurred in Brisbane houses, which had the strongest quarterly capital growth rate at 2.95%.
Quarterly growth in Hobart houses began to subside, with values falling 1.34% over the June quarter.
In Darwin, median values continue to fall with houses losing 5.16% over the year to June while units declined in value by 6.23%. However, the data suggests that the pace of losses have started to ease as the dwelling growth cycle may have entered a cyclical trough. In the short term, growth may come into a cyclical upswing, though this is somewhat dependent on the amount of investment and interest in the Northern Territory.
Graph 2: Quarterly Growth in Darwin Houses &amp; Units
<a href="/images/2016/08/04/Graph_2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/08/04/Graph_2.jpg" alt="">
Source: Residex
"There was a cyclical trough in growth reached in early 2011 and again in early 2016.
"The growth patterns show that a trough does not signify the end of a downward trend in these dwellings.
"With completion of the Ichthys project expected in early 2017, as well as ongoing declines in rental rates and transaction numbers, it is uncertain whether this market has fully corrected," Eliza Owen, market analyst for Onthehouse.com.au said.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Mining dependent WA and NT pace of price decline has slowed: Residex

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GUEST OBSERVER
The rotation in economic activity towards the non-mining states is continuing, while conditions in mining states have become more challenging as commodity prices have fallen further.
• In terms of domestic demand, NSW and Victoria will be the most solid performers, with growth gradually improving. 
Both will receive less impetus from housing activity and prices in FY 2016-17. 
Notwithstanding this, our central case remains for solid (though unspectacular) employment growth and lower petrol prices to sufficiently support household incomes and consumption (despite ongoing subdued wages growth). 
• The AUD is acting as a stabiliser, although the troubled global backdrop presents downside risk to all states and territories. 
Further depreciation of the AUD to USD66c will continue to improve the competitiveness of export-oriented and import-competing firms to varying degrees. 
This will be particularly helpful for services sectors, including those benefiting from tourism and international student arrivals such as hospitality, retail and education. 
States for which tourism-related activity makes up a large proportion of the economy such as Tasmania and Queensland will be particularly supported. 
Tourism and education are also bright spots for NSW, Victoria, South Australia and the NT. 
While not our core view, a sharper global slowdown could lower demand for travel to Australia, education exports and Australian property, particularly if the household sectors in China and East Asia come under stress. 
Queensland and the Northern Territory will outperform in terms of overall gross state product in coming years as LNG export volumes ramp up.
However the outlook for associated income and government revenue has deteriorated as commodity prices have dropped further, and any residual mining-related investment in the pipeline is unlikely to proceed. 
Western Australia is more advanced into the mining investment downturn, with broad-ranging effects to continue across the states’ economy in 2015-16, before LNG export volumes come through in subsequent years, but to a lesser extent than previously forecast. 
A restrained approach towards non-mining business investment is likely to persist across all states in coming years.
Recent equity market volatility and uncertainty about future taxation arrangements are likely to add to this air of caution, particularly given firms continue to demand a restrictively high rate of return on investment. 
 
• An overview of the outlook for each state and territory is in the attached document. Links to individual handbooks for each state and territory are available at the links below. 
• <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/NSW_Jan16.pdf">New South Wales</a> will remain the standout in terms of domestic demand. Robust employment growth will be supportive of household spending, while business conditions and capacity utilisation remain elevated, particularly across services sectors. The challenge for NSW will be maintaining robust growth as momentum from the housing sector begins to fade through 2016.
• <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/VIC_Jan16.pdf">Victoria</a> will also continue to experience solid domestic demand growth, and is also well positioned to take advantage of the lower AUD in its tourism and education sectors. Strong employment growth will support consumer spending, although there will be less impetus from the housing sector through 2016. 
• In <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/QLD_Jan16.pdf">Queensland</a> , the sharp decline in mining investment will be offset by exports, although lower LNG and coal prices will reduce the export earnings, profitability and government revenue. Meanwhile, key tourist destinations are benefiting from the lower AUD (with interstate visitor arrivals particularly strong). Domestic demand growth is slowly improving. More attractive rental yields and housing affordability than in NSW and Victoria are driving dwelling investment in Brisbane.
• <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/WA_-Jan16.pdf">Western Australia</a> is well into the throes of the mining investment downturn, which is having a dramatic impact across many segments of the economy. Offsets from stronger mineral export volumes helped to prop up Gross State Product (GSP) growth in 2014-15, but big declines in state final demand have had a major impact on the state’s labour market and asset prices. These trends are expected to continue given the lack of momentum in non-mining sectors. A ramping-up in LNG exports in subsequent years should see growth lift, but by less than previously forecast.
• <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/SA_Jan16.pdf">South Australia</a> continues to underperform, challenged by unfavourable demographics and the structural decline of its manufacturing base. Business conditions remain weak, with the retail sector and some improvement in tourism rare bright spots.
• <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/TAS_Jan16.pdf">Tasmania</a> – while the outlook has improved over the last year, thanks in large part to a pick-up in business investment and strong domestic tourism, recent data suggest that the recovery may be losing a little steam. 
• <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/ACT_Jan16.pdf">Australian Capital Territory</a> – the economy is gradually recovering from the recent fiscal tightening and public sector job cuts. The labour market has shown promising signs of improvement, and together with a modest pick up in population growth will support household consumption and dwelling investment. 
• <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/NT_Jan16.pdf">Northern Territory</a> - Growth will remain strong in coming years as the Icthys LNG project commences export. Medium-term the economy will struggle to replace this source of income and employment, despite the lower AUD supporting tourism.
 
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A delicate re-balancing act: NAB's Alan Oster

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Commercial property markets in the Newcastle and Hunter region have improved, however the market is suffering in the mining sectors of the region.
Valuation firm Herron Todd White suggests that the industrial market is relatively robust in strong and well sought after locations such as Beresfield and Thornton.
"While there is certainly downward pressure on market vales, we haven’t really seen solid market evidence of capital value decreases.
"Current rents have reduced slightly from the soft peak of two to three years ago," the report says.
The HTW month in review suggests however the market is suffering significantly north of Hunter Valley where mining takes over from Newcastle's city and port.
"We’ve noted hard evidence during the year of both capital and rental value diminution in the Rutherford market where activity has been very limited.
"Further up the valley to areas even more heavily mining sector reliant such as Singleton (McDougalls Hill) and Mount Thorley, local agents indicate that buyer enquiry is essentially at a standstill," the report says
Herron Todd White said that they are aware of numerous indiustrial properties built in the last five years that the occupier has had to vacate.
"One of these properties has been on the market for sale and lease since construction in 2011 with only minor subleasing of office components occurring," says the November review.
Despite the negative figures posted north of Hunter the selling activity in small start titled industrial units closer to Newcastle remains relatively strong, with the sales activity being dominated by owner occupiers generally buying the property through superannuation funds, the report indicates.
"This trend remains unchanged throughout the year and has intensified marginally given the potential tax savings available under this scenario.
"The industrial market in 2015 has most definitely been affected by reductions in mining sector activity and spending cutbacks which directly influences the requirement for mining services companies in the Hunter Valley.
"We expect this trend to continue in 2016 and if mortgage stress takes hold with any increase in interest rates, the potential for further value reductions in the Hunter Valley is high."
 
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Commercial property in Newcastle improving: HTW

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GUEST OBSERVER
Based on current indicators, Australia appears to be about 30% of the way through the mining capex decline. The remaining downturn in mining investment will make a significant detraction from the economy, from a GDP perspective, but also from the impact on the labour market. The labour‑intensive nature of the mining investment upturn means that a major risk from declining investment resides in the potential job losses.
To date, the labour market has held up reasonably well.  While the unemployment rate has increased by 0.1ppts over the past year (as the participation rate has increased by 0.3ppts), annual employment growth is running at a solid 2.1% (or 220K).  This outcome is a noticeable step up from the 1%pa employment growth a year ago.  Job gains in construction areas (related to the residential construction upturn) along with parts of the services industry (health, professional services, tourism) are more than offsetting mining‑related job losses. 
<a href="/images/2015/08/13/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-13%20at%2012.47.46%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/08/13/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-13%20at%2012.47.46%20PM.png" alt="">
The questions now are how many more mining‑related job losses will flow through the labour market? And will the labour market be strong enough to absorb these potential job losses?
Resource construction versus resource production employment
One of the offsets to declining resource construction jobs is the pick up in production/extraction jobs created as the mining boom enters the final (or third and operational) phase of the mining boom cycle.  But, the operational stage of the mining process requires much fewer jobs compared to the workforce required in the construction phase.  
<a href="/images/2015/08/13/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-13%20at%2012.49.18%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/08/13/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-13%20at%2012.49.18%20PM.png" alt="">
RBA research indicates that the ratio of construction to operational workers is:
·         2‑3:1 for coal and iron ore mines (8% of capex);
·         10:1 for WA LNG projects (around 51% of capex) and;
·         5:1 for QLD LNG (as per our research).  QLD LNG accounts for around 32% of capex.  
QLD LNG is based on coal seam gas and requires an ongoing investment in drilling wells and pipeline construction, therefore requiring an ongoing construction‑related upstream workforce.
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Diana Mousina is economist for CommonWealth Bank of Australia. You can follow her on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/dianamousina" target="_blank">here</a>.
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