<p data-end="186" data-start="128">ANZ believes the Reserve Bank is in no rush to move again.</p>

<p data-end="441" data-start="188">Following the release of the May Monetary Policy Board Minutes, ANZ has taken the view that the RBA is now firmly in a holding pattern, with the cumulative impact of previous rate hikes giving the Board scope to assess how the economy evolves from here.</p>

<p data-end="508" data-start="443">That positioning, in ANZ’s view, makes a June rate hike unlikely.</p>

<p data-end="680" data-start="510">The bank continues to expect the cash rate to remain unchanged at 4.35 per cent for an extended period, with the RBA adopting what is effectively a wait-and-see approach.</p>

<p data-end="1015" data-start="682">The Minutes point to a Board that sees financial conditions as already restrictive, but without a clear read on just how restrictive they are. That uncertainty has shifted the focus away from immediate policy action and toward monitoring both domestic conditions and global developments, particularly the conflict in the Middle East.</p>

<p data-end="1098" data-start="1017">As ANZ interprets it, the Board is deliberately avoiding strong forward guidance.</p>

<p data-end="1345" data-start="1100">Instead, it is allowing itself flexibility, acknowledging that monetary policy has limited ability to influence the near-term trajectory of inflation, while also recognising that economic growth is likely to remain below potential for some time.</p>

<p data-end="1436" data-start="1347">Despite that pause in momentum, ANZ notes that the Board still carries a tightening bias.</p>

<p data-end="1678" data-start="1438">The Minutes reveal that, in weighing up its decision, the Board seriously considered another 25 basis point increase. The key debate centred on the trade-off between inflation and activity, particularly in the context of global uncertainty.</p>

<p data-end="1755" data-start="1680">Ultimately, most members leaned toward the inflation side of that equation.</p>

<p data-end="2082" data-start="1757">Underlying inflation is still expected to remain above target for an extended period, regardless of how external risks evolve. That has led to a view within the Board that the risks to its inflation objective have increased, and that the current cash rate may not be sufficiently restrictive to fully contain those pressures.</p>

<p data-end="2101" data-start="2084">That’s important.</p>

<p data-end="2239" data-start="2103">While the decision, for now, is to hold, the underlying tone of the Minutes suggests the door to further tightening has not been closed.</p>

<p data-end="2597" data-start="2241">ANZ also points to commentary from Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter, who highlighted the risk that inflation could pass through the economy more quickly and broadly than in previous cycles. Both Hunter and a majority of the Board expressed concern that inflation expectations could become less anchored after such a prolonged period above target.</p>

<p data-end="2733" data-start="2599">That combination, persistent inflation and the risk of expectations shifting, is what continues to underpin the RBA’s cautious stance.</p>

<p data-end="2807" data-start="2735">However, where ANZ diverges from the RBA is on the outlook for activity.</p>

<p data-end="3152" data-start="2809">The Board appears relatively comfortable with current spending patterns, effectively downplaying recent declines in business and consumer sentiment. It notes that sentiment has historically been only weakly correlated with actual spending, and that feedback from its liaison program has not yet pointed to a meaningful slowdown in consumption.</p>

<p data-end="3176" data-start="3154">ANZ is less convinced.</p>

<p data-end="3464" data-start="3178">The bank believes the link between household disposable income, sentiment and spending is more direct than the RBA is currently acknowledging. With inflation continuing to erode real incomes, ANZ expects household spending to soften more materially than the central bank is forecasting.</p>

<p data-end="3528" data-start="3466">That divergence matters because it shifts the balance of risk.</p>

<p data-end="3740" data-start="3530">If activity weakens more than expected, the trade-off between inflation and growth changes. In ANZ’s view, that would reduce the need for further tightening and reinforce the case for the RBA to remain on hold.</p>

<p data-end="3855" data-start="3742">It also suggests that the current policy setting may already be doing more work than the Board fully appreciates.</p>

<p data-end="3945" data-start="3857">The broader takeaway from ANZ’s interpretation is that the RBA is walking a narrow path.</p>

<p data-end="4135" data-start="3947">On one side sits the risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected. On the other is the growing pressure on households and the potential for a sharper slowdown in activity.</p>

<p data-end="4176" data-start="4137">For now, the Board is choosing to wait.</p>

<p data-end="4286" data-start="4178">But it is a pause that still carries an underlying tightening bias, rather than a clear pivot toward easing.</p>

<p data-end="4423" data-start="4288">In practical terms, that leaves the cash rate anchored at 4.35 per cent for the foreseeable future, with the next move still uncertain.</p>

<p data-end="4494" data-start="4425">For borrowers, it reinforces the reality that relief is not imminent.</p>

<p data-end="4686" data-start="4496">And for the broader economy, it highlights the delicate balance the RBA is trying to strike, between bringing inflation back to target and avoiding an unnecessarily sharp slowdown in growth.</p>

<p data-end="4774" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="4688">According to ANZ, it is a balance that is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain.</p>


Joel Robinson

RBA to hold rates for "prolonged period" rather than hikes: ANZ

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/venturecrowd-property-projects">VentureCrowd</a> is down to the final Canopy Villa release at Cumulus Grand Villas in Carrara, as construction continues on the 59-residence gated community positioned above 100 hectares of natural savanna on the Gold Coast.</p>

<p>The remaining Canopy Villa forms part of one of four collections within the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>-designed community and has attracted interest from buyers seeking larger-format homes that combine privacy, security and low-maintenance living. Positioned within a private cul-de-sac and facing a protected black she oak forest, the four-bedroom villa includes a large private outdoor area suited to pet owners and families wanting more flexible space.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/cumulus-grand-villas-carrara-17-baltimore-court-carrara-qld-4211">Cumulus Grand Villas</a>, located at 17 Baltimore Court, comprises a mix of three and four-bedroom villas across the Skyline, Canopy, Savanna and Broadview collections. Prices currently range from $1.455 million to $1.895 million, with the final Canopy Villa priced from $1.825 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360477]</p>

<p>The Canopy Collection villas offer four bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and approximately 245 sqm of internal space, alongside double garages and landscaped private areas. Expansive glazing, open-plan living spaces and private balconies have been designed to maximise natural light and outlooks toward the surrounding savanna landscape.</p>

<p>Construction is now underway across the fully funded development, which VentureCrowd says has become an increasingly important consideration for buyers assessing off-the-plan opportunities on the Gold Coast. The project is being delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/devcon">Devcon Property Group</a>, which has operated in South East Queensland since 1993 and delivered more than 1,000 homes across the region.</p>

<p>VentureCrowd Director of Property David Whitting previously said the project responds to changing buyer priorities in the prestige Gold Coast market.</p>

<p>“Flexible floorplans have proven particularly relevant for purchasers aged between 40 and 65, including next home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Whitting said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360505]</p>

<p>The buyer profile at Cumulus has reflected that shift toward owner-occupier-driven demand. Stuart Towns and Tracey Loynes recently purchased a Canopy Villa, drawn to both the lifestyle offering and the flexibility the home provided for their next stage of living together.</p>

<p>The couple, who met three years ago, sold their Robina home earlier this year after identifying what they saw as strong long-term investment potential at Cumulus while remaining within the same Gold Coast market. The villa’s private backyard was a major drawcard for their dog Luna, while proximity to golf courses including Emerald Lakes also aligned with their lifestyle interests.</p>

<p>Beyond the residences themselves, the community has been planned around shared lifestyle and recreation amenities. The Infinity Terrace will include a 20-metre heated pool, barbecue facilities, alfresco dining spaces and elevated retreat areas overlooking the surrounding landscape. Walking trails, a private nature reserve, orchard and herb garden are also integrated into the masterplan.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360473]</p>

<p>BDA Architecture Director Darren Greenaway said the design approach was heavily influenced by the site’s outlook and secluded setting.</p>

<p>The practice sought to create what Greenaway described as a “little piece of paradise,” drawing inspiration from the elevated views, surrounding greenery and quiet location.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/carrara-qld-4211">Carrara</a> continues to attract buyers seeking larger homes within proximity to the coast but without direct beachfront pricing. Cumulus sits within easy reach of Broadbeach, Pacific Fair, Robina Town Centre and the M1, providing connections north to Brisbane and south toward the Gold Coast Airport and northern New South Wales.</p>

<p>The first stage of Cumulus Grand Villas is targeting completion in 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135663]</p>


VentureCrowd nears sell-out of Canopy Collection at Cumulus Grand Villas in Carrara

<p data-end="89" data-start="0">Waverley Council has made a call that many councils have been reluctant to make publicly. Growth is coming, regardless of who controls it.</p>

<p data-end="659" data-start="141">The release of the Bondi Junction Vision and Master Plan is less about whether the Eastern Suburbs’ primary centre will change, and more about how that change is shaped, funded, and ultimately experienced on the ground. Waverley Council has released a 100-page plan which is effectively the first comprehensive blueprint for Bondi Junction in over two decades, and in doing so, signals a clear shift in how councils are positioning themselves in the current planning environment.</p>

<p data-end="1018" data-start="661">For the past 18 months, the conversation across New South Wales has been dominated by the State Government’s Low and Mid-Rise Housing reforms and the emergence of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway. Both have created faster, more centralised avenues for development approvals, particularly in well-located, infrastructure-rich areas like Bondi Junction.</p>

<p data-end="1087" data-start="1020">Waverley Council’s response has been to move early, and decisively.</p>

<p data-end="1547" data-start="1089">Rather than react to individual proposals as they come through the HDA or broader State-led reforms, Council has sought to establish a clear, place-based framework that sets the terms for how Bondi Junction evolves. The underlying position is relatively straightforward: if densification is inevitable, it should be tied to infrastructure, public domain improvements, and a cohesive vision for the centre, not delivered piecemeal through ad hoc applications.</p>

<p data-end="1547" data-start="1089"><img alt="bondi junction" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7f1f729c-ed99-4c6c-bf87-ffbce6991941" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-19%20at%209.58.16%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=ULX4OlXKjeJ5BvNCNGL86evgXCjCfMih" /></p>

<p data-end="2067" data-start="1591">At its core, the document is attempting to reposition Bondi Junction from what it largely functions as today, a transport interchange anchored by a major retail centre, into something far more layered. The ambition is to transform it into what the plan describes as the “civic and cultural heart of Sydney’s East,” a place that is active beyond commuting hours and capable of supporting a broader mix of uses, experiences and communities.</p>

<p data-end="2123" data-start="2069">That repositioning is built around four key ambitions.</p>

<p data-end="2424" data-start="2125">The first is to create a true destination. Bondi Junction already attracts significant foot traffic, with more than 86,000 daily transport users and millions of annual retail visits, but much of that activity is transient. People pass through, rather than stay.</p>

<p data-end="2897" data-start="2426">The Master Plan seeks to change that dynamic. It leans heavily into the idea of an “18-hour economy,” extending activity well beyond traditional retail hours through dining, cultural programming, events, and a more active night-time offering. This is not just about adding more hospitality venues, but about fundamentally shifting how the centre operates, from a daytime shopping destination to a place that functions across the full span of the day and into the evening.</p>

<p data-end="2951" data-start="2899">Oxford Street Mall sits at the centre of that shift.</p>

<p data-end="3478" data-start="2953">Long seen as underperforming relative to its potential, the Mall is identified as one of the key catalyst projects in the plan. It is to be reimagined as a day-to-night spine, combining retail, dining, wellness and cultural uses in a way that creates a continuous flow of activity. Outdoor dining, rooftop venues, laneway activation and a curated events program are all part of the strategy, alongside significant public domain upgrades that aim to improve comfort, safety and usability.</p>

<p data-end="3478" data-start="2953">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3562" data-start="3480">The second ambition is to transform Bondi Junction into a world-class interchange.</p>

<p data-end="3890" data-start="3564">Despite being one of the most heavily used transport nodes in Sydney, the current experience is fragmented. Connections between the station, Westfield, Oxford Street Mall and surrounding streets are often unclear, and major roads create physical barriers that disrupt pedestrian movement.</p>

<p data-end="4240" data-start="3892">The Master Plan proposes a more seamless, people-focused network. That includes clearer pedestrian links, improved wayfinding, better integration between transport modes, and a rethinking of how arrival into the centre is experienced. The aim is to shift the perception of Bondi Junction from a place people move through, to a place they arrive in.</p>

<p data-end="4296" data-start="4242">The third ambition focuses on greening and open space.</p>

<p data-end="4709" data-start="4298">One of the more consistent pieces of community feedback throughout the Vision phase was the need for more greenery, better public spaces, and a more comfortable urban environment. Despite being surrounded by major parks, Bondi Junction itself has relatively limited accessible open space, with much of the public realm dominated by hard surfaces and traffic infrastructure.</p>

<p data-end="5076" data-start="4711">The plan responds with a network of new and upgraded public spaces, increased tree canopy, and what it terms the “Parkline,” a green link connecting Waverley Park through to Centennial Park. This is not just about aesthetics. It is about addressing heat, improving liveability, and ensuring that increased density is matched by access to high-quality outdoor space.</p>

<p data-end="5183" data-start="5078">The fourth ambition is perhaps the most important from a development perspective: growth that gives back.</p>

<p data-end="5501" data-start="5185">Bondi Junction is already the primary location for new housing supply in the Waverley LGA, and that is expected to continue. The area carries a target of 2,400 new dwellings by 2029, with further growth projected beyond that as demand for well-located housing continues to rise. The Master Plan does not seek to limit that growth. Instead, it attempts to shape it.</p>

<p data-end="5842" data-start="5590">New housing is to be concentrated around transport, with stepped building heights designed to protect the character of surrounding neighbourhoods. At the same time, the plan introduces a more explicit link between development uplift and public benefit. This is where value capture becomes central.</p>

<p data-end="6327" data-start="5890">The document outlines a framework where increased development potential is tied to contributions that fund public domain improvements, community infrastructure, open space, and affordable housing. It is an approach that recognises that much of the transformation of Bondi Junction will be delivered by the private sector, but seeks to ensure that the benefits of that growth are shared more broadly. The Civic Precinct is a key part of that equation.</p>

<p data-end="6732" data-start="6381">Leveraging Council-owned land, the plan proposes a consolidated civic and cultural hub centred around Ebley Street. This would include new community facilities, cultural spaces, and potentially a new Council Chambers, creating a focal point for civic life that currently does not exist in Bondi Junction at scale.</p>

<p data-end="6980" data-start="6734">It is one of several catalyst projects identified in the Master Plan, alongside the Oxford Street Mall transformation. These projects are intended to anchor change, acting as early interventions that unlock broader investment across the precinct.</p>

<p data-end="7137" data-start="6982">Importantly, the Master Plan is not just a design document. It includes a delivery framework that sets out how these ambitions are intended to be realised.</p>

<p data-end="7519" data-start="7139">Council is explicit in acknowledging that it cannot deliver the transformation alone. Implementation will require coordination between State agencies, private developers, landowners and the community, with a mix of planning agreements, infrastructure contributions and direct delivery mechanisms used to fund and stage improvements over time.</p>

<p data-end="7843" data-start="7556">The plan outlines a mix of short-term, medium-term and long-term actions, from immediate public domain upgrades and planning controls, through to larger-scale projects that will unfold over the next decade or more. In practical terms, the next 12 to 24 months will be the most important.</p>

<p data-end="8108" data-start="7845">This is when the Master Plan will move through exhibition, refinement and eventual adoption. It is also the period in which Council will seek to embed the framework into its planning controls, giving it weight in the assessment of future development applications.</p>

<p data-end="8528" data-start="8161">Council officers have indicated that once the Master Plan is in place, it could be used as a benchmark when assessing Housing Delivery Authority proposals, and potentially reduce the need for further HDA declarations within Bondi Junction. In effect, it is an attempt to bring planning control back to the local level, while still aligning with State housing targets.</p>

<p data-end="8654" data-start="8530">That tension between State-led reform and local planning control is not unique to Waverley. It is playing out across Sydney.</p>

<p data-end="8710" data-start="8656">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="8710" data-start="8656">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="9626" data-start="9587">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="10207" data-start="9884">If delivered as intended, Bondi Junction will become denser, more active, and more complex. It will support more residents, more workers, and a wider range of uses, extending beyond its current retail core into a more layered urban environment.</p>


“The civic and cultural heart of Sydney’s East”: Bondi Junction masterplan revealed

<p>Toorak's dress circle St Georges Road, home to some of the city's priciest homes, is set for a rare new apartment development.</p>

<p>Blood Diamond Group, an entity tied to Tina Brandi, wife of David Brandi who has been a prolific bidder on The Block over the years, has filed plans for an ultra-exclusive development across an amalgamated 3,662 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/104-106-st-georges-road-toorak-vic-3142">104 and 106 St Georges Road</a>.</p>

<p>The proposal would replace two existing homes on the riverfront site with a five-level apartment building cascading down the steeply sloping land toward the Yarra River. Designed by Charles Wright Architects, the development has been carefully shaped around the site’s topography and river environs, with the upper levels stepping back to reduce visual bulk from both St Georges Road and the Yarra corridor.</p>

<p>Planning documents describe the proposal as “a site layout and building typology that is consistent with the emerging character of the area and which provides exceptional amenity for future residents without compromising that of neighbouring properties.”&nbsp;</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Blood Diamond Group unveils riverfront apartment plans for Toorak Pavilion" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ea19a17e-7528-4fa8-b727-05f2f7c025e5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Toorak%20pavilion%20a_0.png?VersionId=rZ2IjdoUL_UrRl1sZ4wZHnQXbYUaEmUQ" /></p>

<p>The scheme comprises 12 apartments, including 10 three-bedroom residences, one one-bedroom apartment, and a substantial split-level five-bedroom penthouse. A 624 sqm communal rooftop terrace will crown the building, while three undercroft levels embedded into the hillside will accommodate apartments and basement parking.</p>

<p>The design leverages the site’s dramatic northern outlook across the Yarra River, with living areas and balconies oriented toward the water. A central atrium running the full height of the building is intended to draw natural light deep into the residences and improve internal amenity.</p>

<p>Landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo Design &amp; Landscape</a> will play a major role in softening the built form, particularly along the river edge where significant setbacks have been introduced. The proposal includes a minimum 30-metre setback from the Yarra River boundary, preserving a substantial landscaped buffer between the development and the waterway.</p>

<p>While a mature English Oak near the front of the site is proposed for removal, the plans retain a large English Elm closer to the riverfront, alongside other established vegetation in the lower section of the property.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Blood Diamond Group unveils riverfront apartment plans for Toorak Pavilion" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ed3bf19b-5bc7-482f-bde7-41f709a13c3a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Toorak%20pavilion%20b.png?VersionId=SG_kBGu4rOaSPY8FtVcmPJfSCrstuOfg" /></p>

<p>Architecturally, the building adopts strong horizontal forms with expansive glazing and curved balcony edges facing the river. Planning documents note the upper levels “adopt a receding form” to ensure the building responds appropriately to the Yarra River environs overlay controls.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The surrounding streetscape is characterised by large contemporary homes embedded into the hillside, many presenting as modest one or two-storey forms to the street before expanding toward the river frontage below. The planning report notes this established pattern heavily influenced the massing strategy for Toorak Pavilion.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Until the recent sale of the landmark Clendon Road mansion Coonac for around $130 million, St Georges Road held the state's most expensive home, the $80,000,088 derelict "Ghost House" mansion that was bought by crypto king Ed Craven.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Blair House, also on St Georges Road, sold for $74.5 million in 2022.</p>


First look: Toorak Pavilions slated for dress circle St Georges Road

<p data-end="205" data-start="54">Six months after a development site on Kangaroo Point’s Shafston Avenue sold for $6.55 million, plans have been lodged for a 23-storey apartment tower.</p>

<p data-end="443" data-start="207">A company named JMT Mega Capital, understood to be interstate investors when the 1,222 sqm double block traded late last year through Patona Property, is proposing an 84-apartment development in place of the existing low-rise buildings.</p>

<p data-end="694" data-start="445">The slender tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/212-220-shafston-avenue-east-brisbane-qld-4169">212–220 Shafston Avenue</a>, overlooking the Brisbane River, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/aplus-design-group">Aplus Design Group</a>. It will comprise a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments above six basement levels, topped by rooftop resident amenities.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7e17ba9e-553e-42ef-92b6-22081671521a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/podium_3.png?VersionId=hlVUf99vrOjUs.vhQs0qV0DhOncUy9T8" /></p>

<p>The development has been designed as a vertically articulated tower with recessed balconies, curved façades and planted edges intended to soften its scale within the evolving Shafston Avenue skyline. In the submitted Urban Design Report, Aplus Design Group said the tower had been “shaped with a slender vertical expression, articulated façades, recessed balcony zones, integrated planting and a clearly defined podium relationship, helping to reduce perceived bulk and create a more elegant contribution to the Shafston Avenue streetscape and broader Kangaroo Point skyline.”</p>

<p>The scheme comprises 84 apartments, including 25 one-bedroom units, 34 two-bedroom apartments and 25 three-bedroom residences. A total of 104 car spaces are proposed across six basement levels, including resident, visitor and accessible parking.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to rooftop communal open space and shared amenities, while the development also incorporates deep planting zones and subtropical landscaping throughout the podium and tower levels. The project includes 35 per cent communal space coverage across the site and a 17.5 per cent deep soil zone allocation to support urban greening outcomes.</p>

<p>The application exceeds the mapped building height under the Kangaroo Point Peninsula Neighbourhood Plan and is being assessed under Brisbane City Council’s impact assessment pathway. The design team argues the additional height is supported by the site’s strategic inner-city location, existing high-density zoning, and proximity to transport and employment hubs.</p>

<p>“The design has been developed to make better use of a well-serviced urban site within an established high-density residential setting, while improving the street presentation and overall quality of the public realm interface,” the report states.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1ab44b1e-ff45-4bf3-8da8-8aa0cd79db33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_10.png?VersionId=tSxeGekZOqj1e9g3PEn_yFoC3taKDp3U" /></p>

<p>The proposal adds to a growing pipeline of apartment developments reshaping Kangaroo Point ahead of the 2032 Brisbane Olympic Games, with demand continuing to strengthen for new housing supply in well-connected inner-city precincts.</p>

<p>Mosaic has nearly sold out its under-construction <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-bedford-by-mosaic-16-30-prospect-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Bedford by Mosaic</a>&nbsp;and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-carter-by-mosaic-77-linton-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Carter</a>,&nbsp;while Pikos recently completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/skye-residences-by-pikos-kangaroo-point-8-river-terrace-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Skye Residences</a> nearby. Pikos is also delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gaia-kangaroo-point-108-lambert-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Gaia</a>, over 230 three- and four-bedroom apartments on Lambert Street.</p>


First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point apartment tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct

Migration

<html><body>
<p> It's been suggested that trends in migration from Australia towards Australia might bode ill for our economy, a kind of pseudo-recession indicator if you will.</p>
<p>Certainly, there had been a significant increase in those migrating permanently of for the long term across the Tasman - many of whom were originally Kiwis returning home.</p>
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<br><div>It's not too hard to see why these trends developed.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>New Zealand had been running a much higher unemployment rate than Australia while we were still enjoying the spoils of a heady resources construction boom.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But then as the mining construction boom passed its peak in Australia, opportunities for employment here declined, and the unemployment rate ticked higher - just as NZ was being anointed with its "rock star economy" status.</div>
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<div>Unfortunately New Zealand's one-time rock star economy rather seems to have rocked itself out.<br><br>In fact, NZ now has a higher unemployment rate than Australia, after an odd-looking blip last in the quarter before last.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Now there isn't all that much to pick between either economy.<br><br>Both have indicators of under-employment, under-utilisation and weakened commodity prices (here it's mainly bulk commodities, over there, dairy).<br><br>And both countries are looking to tourism and international student migration to paper over the cracks.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It looks as though the trend in net migration having tilted sharply in favour of New Zealand has now reached something approaching equilibrium. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact in April there was a small seasonally adjusted net flow back in favour Australia. </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/06/28/NZ2-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/06/28/NZ2-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>In truth, whether 100 or so people decide to head this way or that will have little bearing on the health or otherwise of Australia's economy going forward.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>About 60 per cent of permanent migrants to Australia now hail from Asia.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And with our international student visa rules to be relaxed significantly from 1 July this trend will be reinforced, with a high share of the new applicants expected to be from China and India.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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About 60 percent of permanent migrants to Australia now hail from Asia: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>As at June 2018, an estimated 17,650,130 residents of Australia were born in Australia.</p>
<p>While this might seem like a high number, it shows that 29.4% of residents were born overseas. Based on data from the ABS, which dates back to 1996, this is the highest share of residents born overseas on record.</p>
<p>It also shows that over 2017-18, Australian born residents increased by 1.1%, overseas born residents increased in population by a much larger 2.8%. While that figure is high, it was down from 3.3% over the previous year.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/11/CL%20PP%20Population%201.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p>Harking back to colonial times, England remains the largest source of residents that were born overseas. In fact, almost 1 million residents were born in England, which accounts for 13.5% of all Australian residents that were born overseas. The top 10 countries of birth accounted for 54.8% of all residents that were born overseas as at June 2018.</p>
<p>Another interesting point of note is that migration from certain countries has clearly slowed.</p>
<p>The number of persons born in England peaked at 1,012,780 persons in 2013, consistently falling to its current level. The number of persons born in New Zealand also peaked in 2013 at 585,390, as did persons born in Scotland (142,360) and persons born in Italy (200,670).</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/11/CL%20PP%20Population%202.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<p>While we have seen fewer residents born in in these countries over the past five years, there has been a significant rise in persons born in China (432,400 in 2013) and India (378,480) over the same five-year period.</p>
<p>Twenty years ago, the top 10 countries of birth for residents born overseas accounted for 56.0% of all residents born overseas. Keep in mind that in 1998, a much lower number of residents were born overseas.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/11/CL%20PP%20Population%203.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<p>The makeup of the CoreLogic top 10 list 20 years ago is quite different to how it currently looks. China is now the second largest source of residents while 20 years ago it was the seventh largest.</p>
<p>India, which is now the third largest source of residents was the 12th largest source, Malaysia is now the ninth largest source and was the 13th largest source 2 decades ago and South Africa is now the seventh largest source of residents compared to 17th 20 years ago.</p>
<p>20 years ago, Greece was the sixth largest source of residents born overseas compared to 15th now, Germany was the eighth largest source compared to being 14th now and Netherlands was the 10th largest source compared to 25th now.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/11/CL%20PP%20Population%204.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Although the Federal Government has recently announced that they are set to reduce the migration intake going forward, Australia is still set to be a very multicultural country.</p>
<p>Furthermore, demand for our education services, particularly from the world’s two most populous countries (China and India) is anticipated to remain high. As a result, expect even more residents of Chinese and Indian heritage to find their way to our shores over the coming years.</p>
<p>Similarly, those countries such as Scotland and Italy will likely see themselves fall out of the top 10 list over coming years with new countries of origin finding their way to the top 10 list.</p>
<p><em>CAMERON KUSHER is <span>head of research for the <em>Australian branch of</em></span> CoreLogic</em></p>
<p><em>Mr Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/taxonomy/corelogic-people/cameron-kusher" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.</em></p>
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Increasing numbers of overseas migrants: CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<p>Annual migration to New Zealand hit its highest annual level on record in November 2016 at 70,400. </p>
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<p>Australia saw a net loss of permanent and long term 1,830 departures to NZ over the year - mainly Kiwis returning home - although over the last six years the cumulative gain to Australia has been more than 116,000. </p>
<div id="post-body-8831991451369549932" class="post-body entry-content"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/17/NZ1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<br><div class="separator">Although it's tempting to think that Australia is losing population to New Zealand, in reality the opposite is true.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">In fact, an extra 16,000 Kiwis came to Australia on 444 visas on a net basis over the year, taking the total storming past 677,000. </div>
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<div class="separator">The big drivers of migration to NZ are now China and South Africa. </div>
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<br>NZ still has a lower unemployment rate than Australia, which is very much helping its cause.</div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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NZ migration highest on record: Pete Wargent

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<p>Interstate migration to Queensland is picking up again as expected as folks head north from crowded and pricey Sydney, but it was the record interstate migration to Victoria which really shot the lights out over the year to September. </p>
<p>The driver of this is clear, since Victoria alone has been creating almost all of Australia's jobs lately.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/24/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<div id="post-body-1155932946791358378" class="post-body entry-content">
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<br>Net overseas migration also accelerated into Sydney, Melbourne, and south east Queensland.</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<br><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/24/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/24/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>As a result the most populous states are mopping up a huge share of population growth, with New South Wales and Victoria alone accounting for 68 percent of the population increase, and Queensland a further 19 percent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/24/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/24/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Absolute population growth increased to 67,700 in Queensland and a massive 109,600 in New South Wales - mainly into Greater Sydney - but Victoria is breaking demographic records not seen since the gold rush, with the total population exploding 127,500 higher over the year to September. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/24/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
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<br><div>Here are those same numbers looked at over the past three years, with South Australia and Western Australia losing momentum, and the largest capital cities gaining population growth at their expense. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/24/A7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div>The massive headcount growth into Melbourne in particular explains why residential housing vacancy rates have been falling, close to a decade low at the last count.<br><br>
</div>
<div>Despite many new tower blocks adorning the skyline, a record supply of small apartments has only partially absorbed a vast surge in migration to the Victorian capital.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Melbourne crowned king of jobs and growth

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<p>Sydney’s fast pace population growth is set to come to an abrupt halt. The recent closing of borders and after the restrictions that will follow the COVID-19 pandemic will stop most of it.</p>
<p>For the past half century demand for housing and the accompanying property price growth has been driven in part by population growth.</p>
<p>The latest government estimates suggest the key driver is going to fall sharply over the next year or so.</p>
<p>The disruption will show up in many ways.</p>
<p>Short term tourists have disappeared, but will return.</p>
<p>The weakness in short-term tourist arrivals will hit the domestic tourism industry, though will likely be offset in part by more Australians travelling at home when domestic travel restrictions are lifted in stage two.</p>
<p>Large numbers of temporary residents from overseas have departed, but only a trickle will return any time soon. Ditto temporary working visas.</p>
<p>The fall in numbers of international students on visas will likely not see a return to recent levels anytime over the coming year.</p>
<p>The downward pressure on rental price growth that landlords have seen in recent weeks will likely be extended unless Australia’s sustained comparative advantage as an education and tourism destination returns quickly.</p>
<p>The Government estimates long-term migration arrivals could fall by around 300,000 over the next 18 months, with a drop of 72,000 in the first half of this calendar year and another 204,000 in the 2020/21 financial year.</p>
<p>According to UBS Australia's population growth is forecast to slow to just 0.5 percent in 2020.</p>
<p>This is the slowest pace since 1916, according to economists.</p>
<p>The recent average has been between 1.5 percent to 2 percent per year.</p>
<p>Scott Haslem at <span>Cretonne Wealth Management says a</span>t the positive end a temporary pullback in migration flows could provide some time for infrastructure works to "catch up" over the next 18 months.</p>
<p>But for residential housing, the weakness in migration is a significant headwind.</p>
<p>UBS estimates there will be a fall in underlying annual housing demand from around 200,000 to only around 130,000 in the near term - before recovering towards 190,000 by the end of 2022.</p>
<p>This drop in dwelling commencements will mean fewer tradies in work which spells wider problems for the economy.</p>
<p>Construction has continued during the shutdown so employment has not yet been impacted like many other industries.</p>
<p>Lower population growth, from fewer arrivals from overseas, will be accompanied by an emerging drop in the nation's fertility rate currently averaging 1.7 children per couple.</p>
<p>Births falling by 2 per cent to 91,376 in NSW last year.</p>
<p class="selectionShareable">We are set to enter an ongoing debate especially on the role of <span>temporary migration.</span></p>
<p class="selectionShareable"><span>Temporary migration is certain to look different over the next few years than it has over past few. </span></p>
<p class="selectionShareable"><span>That’s its purpose – to adapt to changing circumstances, Monash academic <span class="fn author-name">Gabriela D'Souza recently noted</span></span>.</p>
<p class="selectionShareable">But the Investec fund manager Graeme Katz recently warned pushing back against immigration as a “seriously short sighted view”.</p>
<p class="selectionShareable">“Our country needs to send a signal that we’re open for people, we’re open for capital, and we’re open for business, and provide the productive environment for job creation and growth,” he said.</p>
<p class="selectionShareable">“Only growth will provide the environment for job security, which in turn creates a confidence of consumers to spend and the multiplier flow on ... will provide a tax base to support a well-balanced economy and society,” he said.</p>
<p class="selectionShareable"><em>This article first appeared in </em>The Daily Telegraph</p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Sydney's population growth set for abrupt Covid-19 induced halt

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<p class="legacy">Australians are among the most mobile populations in the world. More than 40% of us change address every five years, about twice the global average. Yet the level of internal migration – moving within Australia – has gone down over the past four decades.</p>
<p>The proportion of Australians changing state of residence <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7EPopulation%20Shift:%20Understanding%20Internal%20Migration%20in%20Australia%7E69" target="_blank">fell by 20%</a> between 1981 and 2016, particularly after 1991. Their movement between regions within states – between, say, Brisbane and Mackay – <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7EPopulation%20Shift:%20Understanding%20Internal%20Migration%20in%20Australia%7E69" target="_blank">dropped by a whopping 25%</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323130/original/file-20200326-168918-jmxrg6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</p>
<p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323130/original/file-20200326-168918-jmxrg6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323130/original/file-20200326-168918-jmxrg6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a></p>
<p><span class="attribution"><span class="source">Data: ABS Census of Population and Housing, 1981-2016</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></p>
<p>The decline in migration is a feature of a number of <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.routledge.com/Internal-Migration-in-the-Developed-World-Are-we-becoming-less-mobile/Champion-Cooke-Shuttleworth/p/book/9781472478061" target="_blank">advanced economies</a>, including the United States. Policymakers have been concerned this trend heralds a less flexible economy where workers do not move to regions with jobs. If that’s the case, it could prolong recessions and reduce growth.</p>
<p>So why are Australians moving less? Several factors might help explain it.</p>
<h2>Australia is getting older</h2>
<p>Population ageing is one of the main explanations because older people move less than young people. It’s enough to account for 20-30% of the decline in internal migration in Australia.</p>
<p>However, the increase in the share of mobile groups – such as renters, tertiary-educated people and recently arrived immigrants – has <a href="https://qcpr.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/qcpr_working-paper_kalemba-et-al-2020.pdf" target="_blank">fully compensated</a> the downward effect of population ageing. This means the net effect on migration levels of changes in the composition of the Australian population is close to null.</p>
<p>So the decline is not the result of overall changes in population composition. It is the result of deeper behavioural changes. People in their 20s, 30s and 40s are simply moving less today than in the past.</p>
<h2>Working arrangements have changed</h2>
<p>Information and communication technology and the changes in working arrangements brought by the internet are often thought to have contributed to lower migration levels. But, the proportion of individuals who telework remains small. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Aude_Bernard/publication/339899498_Decline_in_internal_migration_levels_in_Australia_Compositional_or_behavioural_effect/links/5e6b3077a6fdccf321d93834/Decline-in-internal-migration-levels-in-Australia-Compositional-or-behavioural-effect.pdf" target="_blank">Only 5%</a> of the Australian workforce worked from home at the 2016 census.</p>
<p>Perhaps more significant is the increase in dual-income households. They now account for two-thirds of couples compared with 56% in 2001. Because these couples find it more challenging to jointly relocate than traditional male-breadwinner families, this shift <a href="https://qcpr.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/qcpr_working-paper_kalemba-et-al-2020.pdf" target="_blank">explains about 10%</a> of the decline in interstate migration in Australia.</p>
<p>Despite these transformations, the mix of reasons for moving hasn’t changed over the past 15 years. Australians still move mainly for family and work reasons.</p>
<p>So, what is going on?</p>
<p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323142/original/file-20200326-168889-xy3fj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</p>
<p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323142/original/file-20200326-168889-xy3fj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323142/original/file-20200326-168889-xy3fj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a></p>
<p><span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors’ calculations using Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey data</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></p>
<h2>Place attachment plays a part</h2>
<p>In the United States, this downward trend has been linked to “<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/psp.670" target="_blank">rootedness</a>”, the idea that individuals have become more attached their families and communities and are therefore less inclined to relocate.</p>
<p>Such concepts are difficult to measure and quantify. Yet a <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/psp.2225" target="_blank">2019 study</a> showed that Australians with strong place attachment and social networks are less likely to migrate, particularly over long distances. But it is not clear how place attachment has changed over time and whether it has contributed to the decline in internal migration.</p>
<h2>Young people are staying put</h2>
<p>We know young people are moving less than they used to. In 2017, <a href="https://theconversation.com/over-50-of-young-australian-adults-still-live-with-their-parents-and-the-numbers-are-climbing-faster-for-women-120587" target="_blank">56% of Australians below the age of 30</a> were still living at home compared with 47% in 2001. Explanations for this trend include increasing housing costs and delayed union formation.</p>
<p>The consequences not only bring down current migration levels but also in the future. This is because <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/psp.2286" target="_blank">migration is self-reinforcing</a>: having moved in the past increases the chances of moving again. So, young adults who are staying put now are less likely to move later because they have not been exposed early in life to the challenges of relocating.</p>
<p>This means the level of migration in Australia is likely to remain low, but this downward trend may level off as we have seen in the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437119316875" target="_blank">United States</a>.</p>
<h2>Is this new low a problem?</h2>
<p>There is no evidence Australians are less willing to relocate for their jobs, so this downward trend should not have major impacts on the economy.</p>
<p>What is more concerning is <a href="https://qcpr.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/qcpr_working-paper_kalemba-et-al-2020.pdf" target="_blank">some groups have been affected</a> more than others, particularly those in part-time work and in low-paid sectors such as retail and trade. These workers are less mobile than in the past and their share in the workforce has increased.</p>
<p>Individuals with limited resources face <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://digital.lib.washington.edu/researchworks/handle/1773/38220" target="_blank">greater difficulties</a> in being mobile, particularly when faced with rising housing costs and stagnant wages. We need to ensure Australia does not evolve toward a two-tier migration system, in which some can afford to move and others are “trapped”. This could, in the long term, reinforce socio-economic inequalities.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133767/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/aude-bernard-316886" target="_blank">Aude Bernard</a>, Lecturer, Queensland Centre for Population Research, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-queensland-805" target="_blank">The University of Queensland</a></em> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sunganani-v-kalemba-997197" target="_blank">Sunganani V. Kalemba</a>, PhD candidate, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-queensland-805" target="_blank">The University of Queensland</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australians-are-moving-home-less-why-and-does-it-matter-133767" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
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Australians are moving home less. Why? And does it matter?

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<p>GUEST OBSERVATION</p>
<p>According to the United Nations, more people live in a <a href="https://www.un.org/en/sections/issues-depth/migration/index" target="_blank">country other than their place of birth</a> today than ever before.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/publications/migrationreport/docs/MigrationReport2017_Highlights.pdf" target="_blank">2017 migration statistics</a> show that about 34 people out of every 1,000 lived away from their place of birth. This number was over 31 in 2010, and 28 in 2000.</p>
<p>Although the <a href="https://refugeesmigrants.un.org/migration-compact" target="_blank">number of migrants is expected to grow</a>, a clear understanding of contemporary migration remains a challenge.</p>
<p><strong>Defining who is a migrant</strong></p>
<p>This challenge was on display at <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/south-asian-media-we-need-to-talk-more-with-refugees-and-not-just-report-about-them/a-48356819" target="_blank">a recent meeting</a> where a group of South Asian journalists, academics and activists gathered to address the core issue of migration.</p>
<p>Officially, the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/sections/issues-depth/migration/index" target="_blank">number of migrants</a> globally reached 258 million in 2017, compared to about 173 million in 2000, which represents an increase of 49%. But it remains difficult to determine with reasonable clarity who is a migrant and who is not. The multiple identities of people on the move complicate migration statistics and generate controversy.</p>
<p>One of the speakers, Chris Lowenstein-Lom from the International Organisation of Migration (<a href="https://www.iom.int/" target="_blank">IOM</a>), presented an overview of migration scenarios in South Asia to highlight the sheer number of migrants in the region, both internally and internationally. Many participants questioned the validity of the figures.</p>
<p>Journalists raised questions about the migration data gathered by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (<a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/" target="_blank">UN DESA</a>) and IOM. The figures either contradicted their lived experience (for example, the number of Indian-origin people living in Pakistan, and vice versa) or overlooked the historical context of certain migrants (for example those of Bangladeshi-origin in India).</p>
<p>The IOM representative’s insistence on his organisation’s goal of “safe, regular and orderly” movement of people across borders resonated with other participants. They emphasised that improving data quality is important for achieving safe passage of migrants.</p>
<p><strong>Difficulties with migration data</strong></p>
<p>Concerns about accuracy and clarity of migration statistics were raised concerning both data collection methods and interpretation. For example, the ranking of countries by the number of migrants shifts dramatically with a change in definition.</p>
<p>The highest number of immigrants (over 48 million) live in the United States, which constitutes 15% of the country’s population. However, the highest proportion of immigrants to a population (87%) live in the United Arab Emirates, which is only eight million in number. The highest number of migrants (nearly 16 million) originate from India, which is only 1.2% of the country’s population. But the highest proportion of migrants to a country’s population (45.6%) is in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is only two million.</p>
<p>Any statistical generalisation about migrants requires significant qualification. Political perspectives on who is or is not a bona fide migrant vary significantly between countries. As a result, the figures produced to represent certain sections of the migrant population can become cloudy or even opaque.</p>
<p>For example, many Indian politicians label the Bangla-speaking Muslim population in northeast India as migrants from Bangladesh. But from the Bangladeshi perspective, most of these people can hardly be considered as such because they had lived in their current location since well before the state of Bangladesh was created in 1971.</p>
<p>Similarly, in the early stage of the 2017 influx of Rohingya people to Bangladesh, this definitional opacity created confusion about their status. Were they returnees, refugees or infiltrators? This lack of clarity in legal status has the potential to render a <a href="https://odihpn.org/magazine/statelessness-identity-rohingya-refugee-crisis/" target="_blank">vast number of people stateless</a>.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the refugee status of the Afghani people in Pakistan has been relatively clear to many sides, even though the identity of a specific individual can still be problematic.</p>
<p><strong>Challenge to report on migration</strong></p>
<p>These differences create a challenge for South Asian journalists to report accurately on migration issues.</p>
<p>Consider the following figures: According to the <a href="/news">UN DESA 2017 estimate</a>, 33.5 million people moved out of five South Asian countries (Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) while 11.7 million people lived in these countries as migrants.</p>
<p>The largest number of migrants in South Asia were from neighbouring countries, such as from Myanmar to Bangladesh (42% of the total 2.2 million immigrants in the country), from Afghanistan to Pakistan (1.4 million out of the total 3.4 million), and from Pakistan and Bangladesh to India (together, 81% of the total 5.2 million immigrants).</p>
<p>According to this estimate, about 60% of the 5.2 million migrants in India were from Bangladesh. But this estimate was based mainly on population data produced by India. Bangladeshi officials and experts had reservations about this figure because, they claimed, the historical dimension mentioned above had been overlooked in its calculation.</p>
<p><strong>Consequences of data opacity</strong></p>
<p>One can easily imagine the difficulties faced by journalists in busy newsrooms with limited resources. They need to report on complex migration issues and are expected to report them accurately, without a clear definition about who is and is not a migrant. Would you label Rohingya people in Bangladesh as “returnees”, following the Myanmar authorities? Or would you use the “infiltrator” description, as Bangladeshi officials initially identified them?</p>
<p>Some of this confusion may be clarified over time, but others continue to bug journalists and other commentators. The lack of a clear definition exists not only in South Asia.</p>
<p>Despite the <a href="https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/why-global-migration-statistics-do-not-add-up-a-1090736" target="_blank">well-founded criticisms</a> levelled against the <a href="/news">UN data on migration</a>, they remain the most widely used set of figures globally. Other organisations and mechanisms of data distribution, such as IOM or the Migration Data Portal also use them.</p>
<p>An important characteristic of the data set is its origin. They are mainly produced through official <a href="/news">population censuses</a> by the respective member states, using public money. Everyone has a stake in improving the quality of these data for a better understanding of the complexity of South Asian and global migration.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114443/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><em><strong>Akhteruz Zaman</strong>, Lecturer, Massey University</em></p>
<p><em><strong>Jahnnabi Das</strong>, , University of Technology Sydney</em></p>
<p><em>This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/migration-is-a-growing-issue-but-it-remains-a-challenge-to-define-who-actually-is-a-migrant-114443" target="_blank">original article</a>.</em></p>
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Migration is a growing issue, but it remains a challenge to define who actually is a migrant

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>More people are deciding to call Australia home – if not permanently, at least for longer than a year. The lift in permanent and long-term arrivals reflects a perception of Australia as a great place to live and work – a country with a high standard of living and great opportunities.</p>
<p>Over 115,000 foreigners came to Australia as a “permanent or long-term arrival” in February. While February is seasonally a peak time for migrant inflows, the annual total of 844,800 is also a record high and up 11.4% on a year ago – the strongest growth in 20 months. </p>
<p>In February there were also 40,740 Aussies deciding to move overseas either permanently or for more than year – the lowest level in four months. Over the year to February the net number (arrivals less departures) of permanent and long-term arrivals hit a five-year high of almost 300,000 people. While studying, working or travelling, the ‘new Aussies’ will contribute to spending and demand for accommodation. </p>
<p>The new migrants boost employment in the short-term but provide the strongest contribution to economic output the longer that they are in their positions (as the case of all new employees). This highlights the fallacy of the recent ‘per capita’ discussion – more a reflection of a timing gap. </p>
<p><strong>Tourism</strong></p>
<p>Tourist arrivals rose by 0.9% in February, the strongest gain in five months. Aussie tourist departures fell by 3.3%, the biggest fall in almost two years. </p>
<p>Over the year, arrivals were up by 4% and departures were up by 3.7%. In February, tourists from Greater China (China and Hong Kong) totalled 141,800 (mainland China 115,600; Hong Kong 26,200), ahead of New Zealand (124,800). </p>
<p>China is the largest source of tourists to Australia. Over the past year a record 1,451,600 tourists came to Australia from China, up by 3.9%. </p>
<p>Tourists from New Zealand totalled 1,400,200 visitors over the past year, up by 3.0%. A record 364,300 Indian tourists travelled to Australia over the year to February, up by 16.7% on a year ago.</p>
<p>In February, there were record tourist inflows from New Zealand and India. And in the month a record number of Aussies travelled to India.</p>
<p><strong>Migration</strong> </p>
<p>In February there were 115,100 permanent and long-term arrivals in Australia. The annual number of permanent and long-term overseas arrivals rose to a record high of 844,800 in February, up by 7.3% over the year. </p>
<p>In February there were 40,740 permanent and long-term departures from Australia. The annual number of permanent and long-term overseas departures fell from 546,310 to 545,610 in February but were still up by 5.2% over the year. </p>
<p>Net permanent and long-term arrivals stood at a five-year high of 299,100 in the year to February, up 11.4% on the year.</p>
<p><strong>Chinese inflation</strong></p>
<p>Consumer prices rose by 2.3% in the year to March (forecast: +2.4%), after lifting by 1.5% in the year to February. It was the highest annual rate for consumer prices in five months </p>
<p>Consumer prices fell by 0.4% in March after rising 1.0% in February. Food prices fell by 0.9% to stand 4.1% higher than a year ago. Non-food prices fell by 0.2% to stand 1.8% higher than a year ago. </p>
<p>Producer prices rose by 0.4% in the year to March (forecast +0.4%), up from 0.1% in year to February.</p>
<p><strong>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</strong> </p>
<p>Australia is rightly regarded as a great place for study, work and travel. The continued growth of short and longer term arrivals is good news for a raft of industries such as retailing, tourism and higher education. </p>
<p>The lift in Chinese inflation is encouraging as a weak economy would be more likely to have deflation issues. Chinese consumer price inflation is near a 2% annual rate, like a raft of economies at present.</p>
<p>CommSec expects the cash rate to remain unchanged for the foreseeable future.</p>
<p><em><strong>CRAIG JAMES</strong> is the Chief Economist of CommSec</em></p>
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