<p>A landmark former orphanage site in Surrey Hills could be transformed into a new residential community under plans lodged by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/antipodean-land-developments">Antipodean Land Developments</a> that would deliver 76 apartments and townhouses while restoring some of the suburb's most significant heritage buildings.</p>

<p>The burgeoninng Melbourne-based developer has submitted plans for the 9,158 sqm site at 1 Kent Road and 24 Durham Road, home to the former St Joseph's Home for Destitute Children, a historic institutional complex dating back to the late 19th century. The proposal seeks to adaptively reuse several heritage buildings while introducing two new four-storey residential buildings set within extensive landscaped grounds.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> and Kerstin Thompson Architects, the project has been conceived as a contemporary residential village embedded within a restored heritage precinct. The development team describes the design approach as "The Village in the Garden," with new buildings positioned among mature landscaping by OCULUS and significant heritage structures.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="44ec8c1b-c0b6-44ae-859e-5811b3e6a023" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%281%29.png?VersionId=p.p1_KFh4iQoV4nisdnPfQBAsWNi7m79" /></p>

<p>The proposal would deliver 76 dwellings comprising a mix of apartments and duplex-style residences, significantly increasing housing supply on one of the largest privately held residential landholdings in Surrey Hills. The development includes 127 car spaces, 24 bicycle spaces and more than 1,000 sqm of communal amenity, with the existing chapel building earmarked for conversion into resident facilities.</p>

<p>According to the planning submission, the project centres on the restoration and adaptive reuse of the site's most significant heritage assets, including the original c.1889 St Joseph's building, the chapel designed by architect Augustus Andrew Fritsch, and the historic brick perimeter walls and entry gates. The proposal also incorporates the retention of other contributory buildings including the former infirmary and school building.</p>

<p>Tract Consultants, in the planning report accompanying the application, said the scheme had been shaped through extensive heritage analysis and design development.</p>

<p>"The shared vision for the Site by the project team has culminated in a scheme which successfully breathes life back into a historic site while delivering upon the objectives of Victoria's Housing Statement in a carefully curated and contextually responsive manner."</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7263b7d8-95ea-400f-9531-6ca7d22c3c33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%282%29.png?VersionId=4cR1tiWOsDpgxEOwZi5vVFcyvvOsYkIE" /></p>

<p>The proposal is being assessed under Victoria's Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway. As part of the application, three per cent of the project's residential development cost would be contributed to the Social Housing Growth Fund. The development would also provide a diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom residences targeting a broader range of buyers than typically found in Surrey Hills' detached housing market.</p>

<p>Sustainability initiatives include an anticipated 66 per cent BESS score, natural cross-ventilation to 80 per cent of apartments, 28 per cent deep soil landscaping and a canopy cover outcome exceeding local planning requirements. The proposal also sets aside more than 1,083 sqm for communal indoor and outdoor resident amenity spaces.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="33fad46f-fe26-4d0a-acfd-6b776e1c6a3d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design.png?VersionId=D9F6WVSyYCtGvSUmith35LRp6R7PQkw_" /></p>

<p>Planning documents describe the property as one of the largest underutilised residential sites in Surrey Hills, arguing it presents a rare opportunity to introduce "missing middle" housing in an established inner-eastern suburb while preserving and revitalising a significant heritage precinct.</p>

<p>Antipodean Land Developments has built a reputation for design-focused residential projects across Melbourne, particularly in the medium-density sector. Previous developments include Neighbourhood in Brunswick East, delivered with Breathe Architecture, and Balfe Park Lane, designed by Kerstin Thompson Architects.</p>

<p>They've been very active in site acquisition as they build out their future development pipeline. They recently launched Thornubury House, 45 apartments above a mix of commercial, retail, and food and beverage tenancies, and have plans for a boutique project in Fitzroy and another <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/antipodean-plan-apartments-for-deepdenes-missing-middle-on-whitehorse-road">"missing middle" project</a> on Deepdene's Whitehorse Road.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills

<p>Developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/auyin-property-development">Auyin</a> is the latest to turn to the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program in an effort to secure approval for its long-planned, mixed-use project in Elsternwick.</p>

<p>In 2018, Auyin lodged plans with Glen Eira City Council for a 14-storey building, however Council approved a reduced eight-storey scheme. A subsequent VCAT appeal in 2019 upheld the eight-storey height limit.</p>

<p>The project was later amended to nine storeys, but Auyin is now seeking to revive something closer to its original vision. The developer argues that the planning context has evolved significantly over the past decade, particularly within the Elsternwick Activity Centre, where higher-density development has increasingly been encouraged along Glen Huntly Road.</p>

<p>The proposal would transform the 1,239 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/7-12-horne-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">7-15 Horne Street</a>, opposite Elsternwick Railway Station, into a 13-storey residential and retail development designed by CBG Architects, with 40 apartments</p>

<p>The site currently comprises three commercial properties.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5f465dd4-509b-4082-a669-0253b313914b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20podium.png?VersionId=72frWi0SmQ5AVJ3ARRhX5ILUYObhTm7x" /></p>

<p>The proposed apartment mix comprises 25 two-bedroom and 15 three-bedroom residences above 200 sqm of retail space at ground level. Residents would have access to a 90 sqm wellness facility, a 351 sqm communal indoor and outdoor terrace on the third level, and extensive landscaped areas throughout the development. A publicly accessible 135 sqm plaza would be created on the north-east corner of the site, providing seating, landscaping, and a new gathering space adjoining Horne Street.</p>

<p>The design adopts a four-storey podium that references the finer-grain character of the surrounding streetscape, with the upper tower recessed behind generous setbacks on all boundaries.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e637e763-2abc-4c34-a0aa-5c7ad36fae18" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20open.png?VersionId=J1AoOpZgTyaF.KeeFSX6lMjEScX8KKRi" /></p>

<p>A key element of the proposal is the reconfiguration and widening of the surrounding laneways. Vehicle access would be retained from Lois Lane, with upgraded pedestrian connections linking Ross Street and Horne Street. The development would provide 58 residential car spaces, two retail car spaces, and 52 bicycle spaces across two basement levels and ground-floor facilities.</p>

<p>Architecturally, the building draws inspiration from the established character of Elsternwick Village. The façade combines dark charcoal brickwork, textured concrete, bronze-toned metal detailing, and extensive planting integrated into podium and tower levels. The design also incorporates a chamfered corner treatment and publicly accessible plaza intended to strengthen pedestrian activity around the station precinct.</p>

<p>Elsternwick's last new development completion was&nbsp;EVA Elsternwick by Pitard late last year. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/milieu-property">Milieu</a> is working away on its nature-led neighbourhood, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/elsternwick-gardens-by-milieu-8-gordon-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">Elsternwick Gardens</a>, on Gordon Street, with its first stage expected to complete next year.</p>


First look: Auyin seeks mixed-use apartment project in growing Elsternwick Activity Centre

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/otium-parkdale-123-125-como-parade-east-parkdale-vic-3195">Otium Parkdale</a>, the 13-residence boutique development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/huxtable-property">Huxtable Property</a>, has entered its final stages of delivery, with completion expected within the coming month and more than half of the residences sold.</p>

<p>The Como Parade East project is nearing the finish line at a time when opportunities to purchase new apartments in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parkdale-vic-3195">Parkdale</a> remain exceptionally limited. Fewer than 10 per cent of dwellings in the bayside suburb are apartments, making developments like Otium a relatively rare addition to a market traditionally dominated by detached housing.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5427]</p>

<p>The three-level development comprises 13 residences, including ten two-bedroom apartments and three larger three-bedroom homes, all positioned above a secure basement car park.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/almeida-architects">Almeida Architects</a> with a strong connection to its coastal surroundings, Otium combines red brick, exposed concrete and dark metal detailing with integrated landscaping and greenery. Expansive glazing, generous balconies and terraces have been incorporated throughout the design to maximise natural light and reinforce indoor-outdoor living.</p>

<p>Inside, the residences feature engineered European oak flooring, natural and reconstituted stone benchtops, Bosch kitchen appliances, ducted heating and cooling, lift access and secure entry systems. The larger three-bedroom residences on the upper level have been designed with house-like proportions, while the two-bedroom apartments prioritise functionality, flexibility and low-maintenance living.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5421]</p>

<p>The project is now in its final stages, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/labco">Labco</a> completing the remaining landscaping and external finishing works following the completion of the residences' interiors.</p>

<p>Otium's location within the heart of Parkdale continues to underpin its appeal. Residents will be just steps from local cafés, restaurants, shops and the newly elevated Parkdale Station, while the beach is less than a kilometre away.</p>

<p>With the project tracking ahead of schedule, buyers can currently secure a residence with a five per cent deposit and benefit from settlement terms of up to eight months. The advanced stage of construction also provides buyers with the opportunity to walk through the near-complete residences and experience the quality and finishes firsthand ahead of completion.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134974]</p>


Otium Parkdale enters final month before completion as rare apartment opportunity nears sellout

<p>A new boutique apartment development is entering the market in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chermside-qld-4032">Chermside</a>, with Brisbane-based developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ausdev">Ausdev</a> bringing 33 residences to a well-connected pocket of Brisbane's north.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/parkdrive-apartments-chermside-25-sammells-drive-chermside-qld-4032">Parkdrive Apartments</a>, at 25 Sammells Drive, will comprise a mix of one- and two-bedroom residences positioned within walking distance of Westfield Chermside, The Prince Charles Hospital, and Bradbury Park.</p>

<p>Established in 1989, Ausdev has a long-standing presence across both development and construction, with Parkdrive Apartments representing its latest residential project in Brisbane's northern suburbs.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363778]</p>

<p>The development has been designed around open-plan living and natural light, with residences featuring stone benchtops, timber cabinetry, BOSCH appliances, and private balconies that extend the living areas outdoors.</p>

<p>Kitchens are positioned as the centrepiece of the homes, incorporating natural material palettes and integrated appliances, while bathrooms have been designed with a focus on functionality and understated finishes.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a communal barbecue and entertaining area on Level 3, providing shared outdoor space within the development. Secure parking and lift access are also incorporated into the building.</p>

<p>The project will deliver a limited collection of 33 apartments, with one-bedroom residences priced from $749,000.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363782]</p>

<p>Beyond the building itself, the location places residents within easy reach of several of Chermside's key amenities. Bradbury Park is around 350 metres away, while Westfield Chermside is approximately 1.3 kilometres from the site. The Prince Charles Hospital is located within 750 metres, and the Chermside Bus Interchange is around 1.5 kilometres away, providing connections across Brisbane.</p>

<p>Parkdrive Apartments adds to the growing residential pipeline in Chermside, a suburb that continues to evolve as a major retail, healthcare, and transport hub for Brisbane's north.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152125]</p>


Ausdev introduces boutique Parkdrive Apartments to Chermside's growing centre

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/skymark-group">Skymark</a>'s boutique Cronulla development Solis has secured a 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy through Resilience Insurance, providing buyers of the 16-residence building on Ewos Parade with structural and waterproofing protection that extends a decade beyond the building's completion.</p>

<p>Currently under construction and due for completion in late 2027, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/solis-cronulla-8-ewos-parade-cronulla-nsw-2230">Solis</a> is one of a small number of new developments in the Sutherland Shire to carry Resilience LDI coverage, a distinction that carries increasing weight as buyer confidence in the off-the-plan sector continues to be shaped by how developers stand behind their product.</p>

<p>Latent Defects Insurance, which entered the Australian market in 2022 when Resilience Insurance was approved to offer the cover, protects buyers against major structural or waterproofing defects for ten years post-completion. Unlike traditional statutory warranties, it operates as a first-resort policy, if a covered defect arises, the insurer responds directly, without the buyer needing to pursue the builder or developer through a lengthy claims process.</p>

<p>Resilience Insurance CEO Corey Nugent has noted that the product addresses something fundamental to the new apartment market.</p>

<p>"The overarching feedback from prospective buyers in the new development space is that they want more confidence and assurances around the quality of the build," Nugent says.</p>

<p>"Resilience Insurance Latent Defects Insurance not only gives them complete peace of mind for 10 years, but it shows the developer they are buying from is standing by their product."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370898]</p>

<p>For Solis, the Resilience LDI policy adds a meaningful layer of accountability to an already considered project. The development comprises nine two-bedroom and seven three-bedroom residences, including one dual-level three-bedroom apartment, across a five-storey building on Ewos Parade, positioned between Shelly Beach and South Cronulla.</p>

<p>Garden apartments connect directly to private landscaped courtyards, while upper-level homes capture beach views to the east from level four and above.&nbsp;</p>

<p>All 16 residences include at least one balcony or courtyard, and select apartments on the upper floors feature bar areas and secondary flexible living spaces.</p>

<p>Hiba Sander, Managing Director of Skymark, says Solis offers a rare balance, nestled between the quiet beauty of secluded beaches and the lively charm of South Cronulla's esplanade.</p>

<p>"It's a place to choose your pace and live gracefully, seaside'," Sander says.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370900]</p>

<p>The architecture, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ida-design-group">IDA Design Group</a>'s Michael Trinh, draws from the natural erosion patterns of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/cronulla-nsw-2230">Cronulla</a>'s sandstone headlands, translating the organic forms of the coastline into soft curves, pavilion-style massing, and a material palette chosen for longevity in a salt-tinged environment.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Textured natural stone, soft renders, and timber-look battens reference the tones of the surrounding cliffs, while the building has been oriented to maximise natural light and passive ventilation, with primary living spaces facing north and east to capture morning sun and sea breezes.</p>

<p>"At Solis, our aim was to create architecture that feels quietly confident, grounded in natural materials like stone and timber, and elevated by light and landscape," Trinh says.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"The buildings are designed to sit gently within their coastal surrounds, with expansive glazing and abundant greenery creating a seamless dialogue between inside and out."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370897]</p>

<p>Interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hot-black">Hot Black</a> carry the same material language through to every room. Kitchens feature integrated Gaggenau appliances, sculpted stone benchtops, and Lo &amp; Co joinery, while bathrooms feature natural stone, timber, and brushed metal finishes.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Hot Black Founder and Design Director Sophie Safrin describes the intent as one of considered restraint: "At Solis, every detail has been thoughtfully considered to create a timeless coastal retreat, calm, refined, and effortlessly liveable. From natural finishes to seamless indoor-outdoor flow, Solis offers a quiet elegance that's deeply connected to its surroundings.</p>

<p>The landscape, designed by Julian Brady of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/sitedesignstudios">Site Design Studios</a>, treats green space as an integral part of the resident experience rather than an afterthought.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Gentle curves and layered native plantings mirror the ebb and flow of the ocean," Julian Brady says, "creating a serene connection between architecture and place."&nbsp;</p>

<p>Coco Republic has provided bespoke furniture packages tailored to the project's coastal palette.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370899]</p>

<p>Skymark has an established track record in the Sutherland Shire, with a portfolio spanning Cronulla, Woolooware and Burraneer that includes Isla, Sylva, Bask, Shells, Sula and Mist. Securing LDI on Solis reflects a broader shift in how the developer is positioning its buildings to buyers, at a time when Resilience Insurance expects the policy to become mandatory in New South Wales by 2028.</p>

<p>Sales at Solis are launching soon through Ray White Projects, with an official event scheduled for 11 June. Enquire for more information.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150499]</p>


Skymark takes out 10-year Resilience Insurance LDI at Solis Cronulla

Melbourne Property

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<p>Melbourne still has strong numbers for price growth, but its up-cycle is nearing the end.</p>
<p>Sales activity, while still solid, is falling steadily and the number of growth markets is close the lowest levels since the up-market started.</p>
<p>The other clue pointing to the end of the cycle is that all the precincts that still have multiple growth suburbs are at the lower end of the market - most are outer-ring suburban areas. It’s now difficult to find inner-ring or middle-ring precincts with growth suburbs.</p>
<p>To demonstrate the steady decline in sales, a comparison of numbers in successive March Quarters shows this pattern: 33,109 (2015); 28,899 (2016) and 28,948. Sales in the June Quarters have been 38,031 (2015), 34,115 (2016) and 32,300 (2017).</p>
<p>In Hotspotting’s research for The Price Predictor Index, the total number of suburbs with growing sales activity has dropped from 96 in the Autumn report, to 60 in Winter edition and further to just 35 in the Spring survey.</p>
<p>These trends confirm a steady diminution in the strength of the market. And in terms of annual price growth, the latest data from CoreLogic has Melbourne ranked third on dwelling price growth behind Hobart and Sydney.</p>
<p>The remaining growth locations are in the cheaper areas, such as the LGAs of Brimbank and Melton (west); Hume and Whittlesea (north); Wyndham (far south-west;) and Frankston and Mornington Peninsula (far south/south-east).</p>
<p>But even these affordable markets are gradually declining in terms of the number of growth suburbs.</p>
<p>The leading precincts are Whittlesea and Wyndham LGAs. Whittlesea is consistently one of the city’s strongest markets, driven by affordability, infrastructure and jobs nodes.</p>
<p>We have identified four suburbs with growing sales momentum, down from six in the Winter survey. The suburb of Epping is one of the remaining strong markets, with sales moving from 115 to 145 to 135 to 160 to 172 in recent quarters. </p>
<p>In neighbouring Hume, growth suburbs include Broadmeadows, Roxburgh Park and Meadow Heights (where sales have lifted from 27 to 29 to 34 to 45 to 51 to 54 in the past six quarters).</p>
<p>Wyndham in the south-west is the other stand-out, led by Hoppers Crossing, Tarneit, Williams Landing and Werribee.</p>
<p>The Brimbank LGA has been one of the Melbourne’s most outstanding markets for the past 2-3 years. It still has three suburbs with rising sales momentum but a greater number of Plateau markets – further evidence of the wind-down in the market.</p>
<p>Cheaper markets in the far south/south-east, including the LGAs of Frankston, Casey and Mornington Peninsula, still have growth suburbs but, they are outnumbered by suburbs with Plateau-ing sales activity.</p>
<p>Upmarket and Middle Melbourne areas remain solid but most are dominated now by Plateau markets: they include the LGAs of Whitehorse, Moreland and Kingston. Very few growth suburbs remain.</p>
<p>There are also many suburbs where sales activity has dropped considerably, compared to 2014-2015 levels. They include Box Hill, Brighton, Brunswick East, Caulfield North, Chadstone, Clayton, Doncaster, Footscray, Glen Waverley, Hawthorn, Kew, Richmond, Rowville, South Yarra, West Melbourne and Windsor.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy">The worst performers are the inner-city unit precincts. We rank the CBD, Southbank and Docklands as Danger markets, as well as Carlton and Collingwood.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy"><span>Terry Ryder is the founder of </span><a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a><span>. You can </span><a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'" target="_blank">email him</a><span> or follow him on </span><a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></p>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Melbourne CBD, Southbank and Docklands labelled danger markets

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<p>BIS Oxford Economics has reversed its forecast that Melbourne will suffer a surplus of apartments.</p>
<p>Faster-than-expected population growth now meant the city would be in balance or potentially face an undersupply as recent census figures showed the state had 109,000 more people than previously expected.</p>
<p>"If you translate that into households, it's close to 35,000 extra households in Melbourne," BIS managing director Robert Mellor told The Australian Financial Review.  </p>
<p>"We thought it would get to a 20,000 excess [of apartments] in Victoria by 2018. We're now saying in 2018 the market has still got an undersupply of about 2000 dwellings. We're talking a 20,000 turnaround."</p>
<p>The findings reflect other census figures showing the proportion of students rose to 27 per cent of demand for inner city apartments in 2016, up from 20 per cent five years earlier, Mr Mellor said.</p>
<p>BIS forecasts apartment commencements in Victoria have shrunk from its 2015 peak of nearly 19,800 to a likely 2021 trough of 7200. </p>
<p>"It'll start picking up more significantly from 2021-22 and beyond," Mr Mellor said.</p>
<p>"At this stage, we're not predicting the next boom will be as big as the current boom."</p>
<p>BIS says Sydney and Brisbane will also suffer a decline in new housing starts, but that Sydney's reduction would be less severe in relative terms and Brisbane was already in a position of oversupply that would take some years to absorb. </p>
<p>New high-rise housing starts in NSW were likely to near-halve from its estimated 2017 peak of nearly 32,000 to just over 16,000 in 2020.</p>
<p>Queensland would see commencements drop by more than two-thirds from more than 15,000 in 2016 to just over 4,000 by 2020, BIS forecasts.</p>
<p>The lack of new supply down the track would push rents higher and provide more of an incentive for institutional investors to back the built-to-rent sector, Mr Mellor said.</p>
<p>BIS Oxford Economics had warned of a 15,000-apartment glut in the Victorian capital two and a half years ago.</p>
<p>It repeated the warning last year.</p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

BIS now forecasts no Melbourne apartment oversupply

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<div>It seems that Melbournites are not waiting to buy land...they are opting buy land and wait.<br><br>At least for now.<br><br>Melbourne has accelerated to record monstrous population growth in recent years, while the regions of Victoria have largely flatlined ex-Geelong.<br><br>You can make your own assessment of whether high population growth is impacting the Melbourne housing market, but the land sales figures look pretty damning. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The pressure appears to be starting to tell, as vacant land sales are being gobbled up at the fastest pace ever recorded, according to Oliver Hume's quarterly data.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/24/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/24/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Model of a modern Valuer-General</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Rising land values have been a key input into rising house prices in Melbourne.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Median vacant land prices in metropolitan Melbourne increased by +3.7 per cent in calendar year 2016, according to the Valuer-General, rising from $219,000 to $227,000.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Median house prices in metro Melbourne rose for a fourth consecutive calendar year from $600,000 in 2015 to $635,000 in 2016.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Median unit values increased far more steadily over the year, up from $487,000 to $494,000.</div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-PwOPlS6xpus/WZlT3UEHAmI/AAAAAAAAltM/NQqU2fnmXAoMP4yOetW8GAK5KgUYsa9EgCLcBGAs/s1600/A2.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-PwOPlS6xpus/WZlT3UEHAmI/AAAAAAAAltM/NQqU2fnmXAoMP4yOetW8GAK5KgUYsa9EgCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1389"></a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>The ratio of land prices to house prices on this data series hasn't changed a great deal over more than three decades, to some extent reflecting what is actually being measured, with the vacant land sales often located in fringe or secondary locations.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perhaps this is the subject for a longer blog post another time, but the Valuer-General report always cautions about too many generalisation being drawn from the headline numbers. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>House and land prices in regional Victoria have lagged Melbourne substantially over the past 10 years to 2016, at least in aggregate.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Metro Melbourne median house prices have now more than doubled over the past dozen years, and have quadrupled since 1998. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In 2016, regional house prices rose by +2.6 per cent to $320,000.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This represents an increase of $100,000 or +45 per cent over 10 years, before accounting for stamp duty and repairs, maintenance, and other holding costs. </div>
<p> </p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Melbourne land sales figures look pretty damning

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<p>Melbourne’s property market is tipped to ease in 2018 with the correction hitting harder in the detached housing market rather than apartments.</p>
<p>The CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australian Home Value Index Forecast, 2017Q1 said although the rise of housing supply has been more prolific in apartments—for every house, 1.23 apartments were approved between 2013 and the end of 2016—detached-home values have grown significantly more than unit values.</p>
<p>"House values in the city have increased 47 percent over the past four years, while apartment values have risen a relatively muted 23 percent," it said.</p>
<p>"Home values in Melbourne remain buoyant; prices rose 12.8 percent from January 2016 to January 2017.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/11/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-11%20at%2010.13.23%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/11/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-11%20at%2010.13.23%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>"However, unit prices rose 2.8 percent during the same period. </span></p>
<p><span>"This situation suggests that the coming supply of apartments has already dampened value growth. </span></p>
<p><span>"Apartment values will rise 3.4 percent in 2017, and a period of stagnation will follow through to 2020. </span></p>
<p><span>"Detached-home values are expected to rise 7 percent in 2017, followed by a steady decline through to 2020."</span></p>
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