Developers and apartment buyers have a narrowing window of opportunity before Brisbane's Olympic infrastructure pipeline begins competing directly with residential construction, pushing up costs, tightening labour supply and making new projects increasingly difficult to deliver.

While Brisbane's apartment market continues to benefit from strong population growth and limited housing supply, industry research suggests the years leading up to 2027 could prove to be the most important period for developers looking to secure builders and buyers hoping to purchase before the next wave of price increases.

A new Colliers report, Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games: Creating Solutions, highlights the scale of the challenge. While thousands of new homes are planned across South East Queensland, the Brisbane Olympic Athletes Village alone will deliver more than 10,500 beds during the Games before being converted into around 1,750 to 2,000 apartments. Equivalent to almost two years of typical inner-city apartment supply, the project will also absorb a significant share of the construction workforce and building materials.

The broader construction pipeline paints an even clearer picture.

Construction Skills Queensland's Horizon 2032 report forecasts Queensland's annual construction pipeline will average $69 billion over the coming years before peaking at $75 billion in 2027-28. Demand for construction workers is expected to increase by 17 per cent to almost 150,000 people, with the industry facing an annual shortfall of around 19,000 workers that could blow out to as many as 35,000 during the peak construction period.

The Olympic venues, athletes village and supporting infrastructure will account for billions of dollars worth of work across South East Queensland through to 2032, creating intense competition for labour at a time when Australia's residential construction sector is already under pressure.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=373834]

Colliers Queensland Residential Director Andrew Scriven said the convergence of these projects is creating a clear window of opportunity for both developers and buyers.

"From 2027 onwards, the market will shift dramatically," Scriven said.

"Labour will increasingly be locked into government-led infrastructure and Olympic projects, which means private residential developments will face higher costs and tighter margins. The developers who move now are the ones most likely to get projects off the ground."

Scriven said the same dynamic would also affect buyers, with fewer apartment projects expected to launch once construction capacity tightens.

"If you're looking to change your lifestyle over the next five years, now is your window of opportunity to buy."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150713 project_image_fid=373827]

Developers are already positioning themselves ahead of that window.

Following the success of Monarch at Toowong, Consolidated Properties is preparing to launch two new Brisbane apartment projects in the second half of 2026. They include <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gloriette-30-bedivere-street-yeerongpilly-qld-4105">Gloriette</a> at Yeerongpilly Green, a 25-storey tower within one of Brisbane's key Olympic precincts, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castile-47-skyring-terrace-newstead-qld-4006">Castile</a>, a recently approved 25-storey riverfront development at 47 Skyring Terrace in Newstead.

Hutchinson Builders will deliver both projects, with early works already underway at Yeerongpilly and Newstead expected to commence later this year.

The timing comes as Brisbane's fundamentals continue to strengthen, with strong interstate migration, population growth and vacancy rates remaining below 1.5 per cent.

Colliers Queensland researcher Pragya Sharma said Greater Brisbane is forecast to require around 40,000 new apartments between 2021 and 2031.

"There's a real mismatch emerging between when housing is needed and when it will be feasible to build," Sharma said.

"As a result, the period leading up to 2027 presents a key window of opportunity for developers to secure approvals, funding and construction capacity, while buyers will have greater choice before supply constraints intensify."

Colliers research outlines a critical pre-2027 window to start residential projects before labour squeeze: now is the time to buy

Joel Robinson

Developers, buyers on watch in South East Queensland ahead of construction crunch: Colliers

It's taken less than nine months for developer Sherpa Property Group to sell out all 51 apartments in its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-oasis-palm-beach-7-9-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Oasis</a> development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a>, over a year before its anticipated completion.

&nbsp;

Located at 7-9 Sixth Avenue, the $67 million development has resonated strongly with both local owner-occupiers and downsizers seeking high-quality apartments within walking distance of the beach, dining precincts and everyday amenities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357458]

Christie Leet, Founder of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Group</a>, said the sell-out reflected both the strength of the Palm Beach market and the success of Sherpa's community-first approach to development.

"The sell-out of Oasis is a fantastic outcome and reinforces the strong demand we're seeing for thoughtfully designed apartments in lifestyle locations," Leet said.

"From the outset, our vision was to create a development that genuinely enhanced the Palm Beach community while providing residents with exceptional homes and wellness-focused amenities.

"We've been incredibly encouraged by the level of local support throughout the campaign, 72.5 per cent of buyers are locals, with a significant proportion of purchasers choosing Oasis as their future home rather than an investment."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357463]

Construction is now progressing following development approval, with trusted builder LPS Group delivering the project and completion anticipated in Q3 2027.

Oasis forms part of Sherpa Group's successful Flourish collection, which has become recognised for its focus on wellness, community and elevated coastal living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357469]

Residents will have private access to a rooftop amenity space featuring a pool, gym, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, spa and barbecue facilities.

"The success of Oasis demonstrates that buyers continue to prioritise quality, location and lifestyle," Leet said.

"We are proud to have delivered a project that has resonated so strongly with the market and look forward to bringing Oasis to life for our future residents."

Sherpa recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a>, its third instalment of the Flourish brand in Palm Beach following Flourish Oasis and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151449]

Sherpa sells out Flourish Oasis in booming Palm Beach

Urban Property Group's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-macquarie-park-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a> is leading the next phase of Macquarie Park's residential evolution, with the new apartment development set to become the first of several new apartment projects in the precinct to complete.

The 169-apartment building has now topped out ahead of its scheduled completion in the third quarter of 2026, as new residential investment continues to reshape one of Sydney's largest employment hubs into a true mixed-use precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=368645]

Cox Architecture has designed La Vera to capture the best of its unique positioning on Talavera Road, orienting the building towards Lane Cove National Park.&nbsp;The building features a sculpted northern façade with flowing curves inspired by the surrounding landscape, while its city-facing elevation adopts a more structured architectural expression to maximise skyline views.

"The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park," <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> Director Felipe Miranda said.

"The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=358802]

La Vera offers a diverse mix of one, two, three, and four-bedroom configurations, with prices currently starting from $740,000. Buyers so far have been a mix of Sydney-based investors,&nbsp;metro commuters, owner-occupiers and downsizers from surrounding North Shore suburbs.

Both investors and owner-occupiers have been drawn to La Vera's proximity to Macquarie University, Macquarie University Hospital, Macquarie Centre and the Sydney Metro, infrastructure that supports both strong rental demand and a convenient lifestyle for residents.

The apartments feature full-height glazing, timber flooring throughout living areas, stone kitchen benchtops, SMEG appliances, floor-to-ceiling bathroom tiling and ducted air conditioning.

Residents will have access to a rooftop recreation level featuring a swimming pool, sauna, barbecue facilities and landscaped relaxation areas, complemented by additional communal space at ground level. Many apartments enjoy uninterrupted views across Lane Cove National Park, reinforcing the project's connection to its natural setting.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=364551]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>, a family-owned developer and builder with nearly four decades of experience, holds a 4.5-star iCIRT rating and was Australia's first developer to introduce 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI). La Vera is the first apartment development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/macquarie-park-nsw-2113">Macquarie Park</a> approved to offer the additional insurance protection, alongside a five-year warranty on SMEG appliances.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said the additional protection reflects changing buyer expectations in the off the plan market.

"Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been. Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share," Elias said.

Following completion of the building later this year, buyers will move into their apartments well before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134951]

La Vera closes in on completion as Macquarie Park continues residential transformation

Brisbane developer Red &amp; Co's decision to include dual key apartments in its debut Gold Coast apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/como-varsity-lakes-22-lake-street-varsity-lakes-qld-4227">COMO Varsity Lakes</a>, is proving to be one of the project's biggest drawcards, with buyers quickly snapping up the flexible residences.

More than half of the project's 36 dual key apartments have already sold, helping drive COMO beyond the 50 per cent sold mark within the first month of launch.

The strong response highlights growing demand for apartment designs that can adapt to changing lifestyles, with buyers increasingly looking for homes that accommodate multi-generational living, provide rental income opportunities or simply offer greater flexibility over time.

Located on the shores of Lake Orr, COMO will deliver 156 apartments across 16 levels, with the dual-key residences forming a limited release within the broader development.

Each combines a primary two-bedroom apartment with a fully self-contained studio on a single title, connected by a shared foyer and lockable internal door. The design allows owners to house ageing parents, adult children or guests while maintaining privacy, or lease the secondary residence to generate additional income.

Just 17 of the original 36 dual key apartments remain available.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=367096]

The innovative configuration combines two fully self-contained residences on a single title, typically comprising a primary two-bedroom apartment alongside a separate studio residence, connected via a shared foyer and lockable internal door.&nbsp;

The model is proving particularly attractive to owner occupiers navigating changing family dynamics and the realities of the current housing crisis.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363511]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/npa">NPA</a>&nbsp;CEO Andrew Erwin said dual key living was resonating strongly with modern buyers because it delivered both financial flexibility and practical lifestyle benefits.&nbsp;

“The housing crisis and rising cost of living are fundamentally changing how Australians think about home ownership,” Erwin said.&nbsp;

“Dual key apartments provide a genuine solution for families who want to stay connected while maintaining independence. Parents can help adult children save for a future home, ageing parents can remain nearby without moving into aged care, and owners still retain privacy and flexibility.

“Importantly, buyers are also recognising the financial advantages. It creates the opportunity to generate additional income from part of the home without the holding costs associated with owning a separate investment property.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363509]

Unlike traditional dual occupancy arrangements, the residences operate under a single title, meaning owners only incur one set of body corporate fees, council rates and holding costs.&nbsp;

The secondary residence can also evolve over time - functioning as guest accommodation, a home office, creative studio or private retreat before later becoming an income-producing asset.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/red-co">Red &amp; Co</a>&nbsp;Director and Co-Founder David Laverty said the strong early sales reflected growing buyer urgency and changing priorities within the market.&nbsp;

“Securing more than half of COMO’s residences within such a short timeframe is an outstanding result and a clear endorsement of both the design and location,” Laverty said.&nbsp;

“Buyers are responding to the combination of location, connectivity and amenity, but ultimately it’s value relative to other East Coast markets that is driving enquiry.”&nbsp;

“We’re also seeing strong interest from owner occupiers looking for homes that can adapt with them over time. Flexibility has become one of the most important considerations for buyers in today’s market.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363515]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, COMO features a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom residences with 2.7-metre ceilings and larger-format floorplans aimed at owner occupiers, downsizers and lifestyle-focused buyers.&nbsp;

The development will feature an extensive rooftop recreation and wellness offering including a 25-metre lap pool, sundeck, barbecue and dining areas, gym, sauna, plunge baths, landscaped gardens, wellness spaces and rooftop pickleball and paddleball courts.

The remaining dual key apartments range from 137 sqm to 167 sqm and include generous three-bedroom layouts with separate self-contained studio accommodation and dual parking.&nbsp;

Erwin said the dual key concept represented a broader shift in how Australians would live in the future.

“People want homes that can evolve with their lives,” he said.&nbsp;

“A dual key apartment can suit a family today, support an ageing parent tomorrow, and potentially generate income later on. That adaptability is becoming incredibly valuable in the current environment.”

Prices currently range from $2,115,750 to $2,583,000.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135546]

Inter-generational living drives demand for COMO’s dual key apartments as housing pressures reshape buyer priorities 

Builder-developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ceerose">Ceerose</a> has doubled down on its Leichhardt ambitions, lodging its second State Significant Development Application (SSDA) in the suburb in the last six months.

Their newest proposal seeks to transform a former industrial precinct into a new residential community centred around the adaptive reuse of one of the site's heritage warehouse buildings.

The new project, on a 6,930 sqm block at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/40-76-william-street-leichhardt-nsw-2040">40–76 William Street</a>, will bring more than 200 apartments to a suburb that has seen little to no new supply in recent years. It follows Ceerose's late 2025 SSDA for a mixed-use apartment project on nearby Parramatta Road, signalling the developer's growing investment in Sydney's Inner West.

Ceerose Founder Edward Doueihi told Apartments.com.au the developer’s long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West had given it a strong understanding of how the area has evolved and where its future opportunities lie.

“Ceerose has had a long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West, giving us a unique understanding of the area’s evolution and future potential,” Doueihi said.

“Having delivered projects throughout the region, we have witnessed the suburb’s transformation first-hand and understand the opportunities for its continued growth.”

Doueihi said that understanding also informed the planning process, with a comprehensive Stakeholder Engagement Outcomes Report prepared before the application was lodged.

The report identified the key issues and concerns raised by neighbouring residents and other stakeholders, allowing those matters to be considered and incorporated into the design where appropriate.

He said the delivery of additional housing would also play an important role in supporting the revitalisation of Norton Street and the Italian Forum.

“By increasing the local residential population, the development is expected to strengthen demand for local businesses, encourage further investment, and help restore the vibrancy that made the precinct a thriving destination in the early 2000s.”

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7258c54c-8167-479e-8361-2d5fca9915b4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010B%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%202.jpg?VersionId=S9DQfxu_jpcB5LrAEYFUbyMzg5odW6i5" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, the redevelopment would involve the demolition of four existing industrial buildings while retaining and adaptively reusing the site's most significant warehouse. The retained structure would anchor a new residential precinct comprising five interconnected buildings arranged around a large central landscaped courtyard, with heights stepping from five storeys along the surrounding residential streets to 11 storeys at the William Street corner.

According to the Architecture Design Report by Woods Bagot, the proposal "seeks to create a residential village centred around a generous green heart while celebrating the site's industrial heritage through the adaptive reuse of the existing warehouse building."

The development would comprise 203 apartments, with 188 proposed as build-to-sell residences, alongside 15 affordable housing apartments.

Rather than treating the retained warehouse as a standalone heritage object, Woods Bagot has sought to weave the site's industrial history throughout the masterplan. The proposal retains the north and west facades of the landmark corner warehouse, while new buildings reinterpret the site's brick-and-steel industrial language through their material palette and architectural expression.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9e8c64c2-881b-49e1-8c90-6b6acaaa45b6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010C%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%203.jpg?VersionId=Qm8_8H_Xrg_sc4Mdjc59vlAcKF_5wRTb" />

The design is organised around what Woods Bagot describes as a "green heart", a landscaped communal open space that reinstates the leafy character removed when the site became an industrial storage facility. A new pedestrian laneway running through the site would improve permeability between William, North and Francis streets, linking residents through landscaped public spaces while activating the ground plane.

Residents would have access to communal gardens and shared recreation areas distributed throughout the development. Sustainability has also been prioritised, with the project targeting an average 7.9-star NatHERS rating. Proposed initiatives include rooftop solar generation, rainwater harvesting, passive solar design, naturally ventilated lobbies, extensive cross-ventilation and the reuse of existing building fabric to reduce embodied carbon.

The adaptive reuse strategy became a defining feature of the application after heritage investigations found only one of the site's industrial buildings could feasibly be retained. The Heritage Impact Statement concludes that preserving the key warehouse façades while referencing the site's industrial character throughout the new development provides an appropriate balance between renewal and conservation.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="efffafdb-594f-4e2b-a067-921fd51c05e1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010D%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%204.jpg?VersionId=DPmE4.k16YRt0i27hEZVtJAffarpvUfx" />

"Retention and adaptation of the site buildings has been explored but found not to be feasible except for the tallest building, whose street facades will be retained," the heritage report states.

"The proposed building will interpret the brick and steel character of the subject site, including reuse of some components and construction of a large 'sawtooth' structure in the proposed open space."

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3bfef2b5-83f5-40cd-9cab-767092f34266" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010E%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%205.jpg?VersionId=7asb3i_ql4ybbuJOUb5UHBEIy0Q9t.DF" />

The William Street site is located around 300 metres from Leichhardt North Light Rail station and a short walk to Norton Street's retail, dining and hospitality precinct. The surrounding area has increasingly become a focus for urban renewal given its proximity to public transport and the Parramatta Road corridor.

Doueihi founded Ceerose in 1998 and has grown the business to become one of Sydney's more active apartment developers in recent years, with completed projects including The Alex Collective in Alexandria, Abbie's Lane in Annandale, and the award-winning Munro House in Elizabeth Bay. They are currently delivering Belgravia, 17 luxury apartments in Potts Point.

First look: Ceerose doubles down in Leichhardt with adaptive reuse of former warehouse site

Matthew Hassan

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
After holding relatively steady through most of 2017 and early 2018, Australian housing finance approvals showed a notable pull back in the March month. The total number of owner occupier approvals declined 2.2% to be down 3.5%yr – below market expectations of a 1.5% fall but a touch better than industry figures that had pointed to a 3% decline.
The real weakness was around the value of investor approvals which dropped 9%mth to be down 16.1%yr. Estimates of investor approvals ex refi are down over 26%yr and just over 30% vs their 2016 peak. That puts the 2017-18 slowdown on a par with that seen in response to the macro-prudential tightening in 2015-16.
Combined, the total value of approvals ex refi fell 4.6%mth to be down 6%yr.
The detail on owner-occupiers showed a broad based decline.
The number of owner occupier construction approvals fell 4.4%mth to be down 4.3% on a year ago and 11% over the last two months alone. The number of owner occupier approvals for the purchase of newly built dwellings declined 1.4%mth but is still up over 5% on a year ago.
The number of approvals to first home buyers (FHBs) fell 4.6%mth but is still up 25%yr due to strong demand in NSW and Vic where state governments have increased assistance for first time buyers. The decline suggests the peak of this boost is starting to cycle through.
The state data showed owner occupier approvals ex refi down in most major states, the biggest fall in SA (–9%mth) with more modest declines in NSW (–2.6%), Vic (–1.6%) and Qld (–1.1%). WA (1.2%) and Tas (+1.5%) recorded slight gains. Owner occupier finance approvals ex refi are down on a year ago basis for every major state except Vic (–2.8%). Other, more recent, housing data suggests there has been a slight further softening in auction markets in April-May with price growth continuing to slow, in Melbourne in particular.
Overall, the March update points to a renewed weakening in demand. More slippage looks likely near term as lenders tighten loan criteria and borrowing capacity assessments – with more stringent assessments also potentially slowing loan processing times. Notably, the average value of owner occupier loans rose in the month and over the year to March, suggesting the softening in approvals to date does not reflect a tightening in borrowing capacity (although this may have been a factor in the investor loan decline).
To read the full report, <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2018/May/er20180511BullHousingFinanceMar.pdf" target="_blank">click here.</a>
Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Australian housing finance approvals pull back: Westpac

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 Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan discusses what is troubling the RBA. 
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What troubles the RBA? Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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Interest rates remain a hot button issue for Australian consumers, the mortgage belt in particular.
Most recently, the weakening in sentiment in Jun-Sep last year highlighted once again just how sensitive consumers are to actual and prospective rate moves.
The period coincided with increased rates on investor and ‘interest only’ loans following macro-prudential measures from APRA. It also coincided with increased media speculation about the potential for a rate tightening cycle from the RBA. Headline sentiment slid about 4% through mid 2017, registering its lowest read for the year in Aug, with sentiment amongst consumers with a mortgage sinking to an 18mth low.
Notably, actual consumer spending also stalled flat in the quarter, showing that, against a backdrop of weak income growth, high debt levels and risking risk aversion, this sort of sentiment pull back can have an immediate impact on spending decisions.
Click here <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/Housing_Pulse/Housing_Pulse_Bites/Housing-monthly-charts-2018-02-2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/Housing_Pulse/Housing_Pulse_Bites/Housing-monthly-charts-2018-02-2.jpg" alt="">
We get a specific read on consumer views on interest rates from our biannual question on mortgage rate expectations. The Feb update shows consumers are less hawkish than in Aug last year. The simplest summary measure – the net % expecting rates to rise – declined to 65.1 from 68.2 in Aug, the highest level since Jun 2011, prior to the RBA commencing its current, extended easing cycle. The Feb read is still well above the 43.5 avg since we started running the question in 2010.
Allowing for a clear ‘upward bias’ to consumers’ mortgage rate expectations, history suggests the Feb expectations read is roughly consistent with a 10bp rise in mortgage rates over the next year.
That is a less hawkish view than both current market pricing (+23bps) and the average economist cash rate forecast (+16bps) despite both markets and economists lowering their near term calls on rates. Westpac Economics continues to expect no change in official rates over 2018 and 2019. However, the hawkish tilt to expectations suggests rate concerns will continue to be a dampening influence on consumers' housing market decisions.
Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
 
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Consumers sensitive to actual and prospective rate moves: Westpac's Matt Hassan

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As expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% at its February Board meeting. The Governor’s decision statement indicates that the Bank’s central forecasts for growth and inflation remain unchanged and emphasises that the Board will be patient in assessing progress. Policy is firmly on hold.
The most substantive change is an additional line given prominence in the concluding paragraph stating that: “Further progress in reducing unemployment and having inflation return to target is expected, although this progress is likely to be gradual.” The clear message is that the Bank will not pre-empt things – it is prepared to wait for an improvement in actual conditions to come through before contemplating any changes.
Elsewhere in the statement, the Bank indicates its forecasts are unchanged with growth “to average a bit above 3 per cent” and CPI inflation “to be a bit above 2 per cent in 2018”. Note that the Bank’s current forecasts, from the November Statement on Monetary, have real GDP growth lifting to 3¼% in 2018 and headline CPI inflation lifting to 2¼% (but underlying inflation holding at 1¾%). The Bank will release updated forecasts with the February Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday.
As expected, the Governor’s statement acknowledged the more positive tone from abroad and from some of the domestic data. The global backdrop is now described as a “broad-based pick-up”. China’s growth is described as solid with what seems to be a more positive take on risks (“authorities paying increased attention to the risks in the financial sector and the sustainability of growth”). Global inflation remains low but is now viewed as likely to “increase over the next couple of years”.
On the domestic economy, comments are more mixed with data over the summer viewed as consistent with the Bank’s forecast for growth to pick up but household consumption a “continuing source of uncertainty” given weak growth in household incomes and high debt levels. Commentary around the labour market is largely unchanged from December – strong job gains in 2017 and indicators pointing to solid growth ahead but wages growth low and likely to stay low for a while yet. A new comment that the Bank expects “a further gradual reduction in the unemployment rate” is consistent with its November forecasts but again places the emphasis on shifts being slow to come through.
This slowness is also emphasised in an additional comment on inflation, which is seen as “likely to remain low for some time, reflecting low growth in labour costs and strong competition in retailing”.
Wording on the Australian dollar was unchanged except for a slight qualifier that the view “it remains within the range that it has been in over the past two years” is on a trade-weighted basis. With the AUD/USD cross retracing sharply in recent sessions (currently back to 0.786 USD from well over 0.800 USD) the need to bolster their rhetoric has faded.
Lastly, the Bank again notes that “housing prices are little changed over the past six months” but adds that prices have “recorded falls in some areas” – a slight contrast to the December statement which instead noted “conditions have eased in Sydney” and gave a little less prominence to the observation.
Conclusion
Overall, the February decision and Governor’s statement contained few surprises. The Bank continues to expect a lift in growth and inflation over coming years and, with the improvement expected to be gradual, is signalling that it is prepared to be patient in assessing how conditions are evolving.
The RBA’s ‘patient approach’ ensures policy will remain on hold over the first half of 2018. Westpac continues to see a more challenging year ahead for the Australian consumer and another sub-par year for wider economic growth. As such we continue to expect rates to stay on hold through the remainder of 2018 and in 2019.
Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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RBA's patient approach will see rates on hold through to 2019: Matthew Hassan

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Australian housing finance approvals beat expectations again in November, the number of approvals for owner occupiers up 2.1% vs expectations of a flat result. Approvals ex refi rose 2.4%mth to be up 9.2%yr.
The value of housing finance approvals to investors also posted a rise, up 1.5% but is down –8.3%yr.
The Nov detail showed continued strength in first home buyer loans (+4.5%mth, 36%yr) concentrated in NSW and Vic where state government stamp duty concessions are giving a big boost and activity is coming from a very low starting point.
Construction-related approvals were up 2%mth, 7.6%yr.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/1/18/FINANCE.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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By state, gains in NSW (+1.9%mth), Qld (+4.3%mth) and SA (+2.1%mth) offset falls in Vic (–0.3%mth) and WA (–2.7%mth). Annual growth remains strongest in Vic (+16.8%) and NSW (+10.9%) bearing in mind that this is owner occupier approvals only (ex refi) and that the slowdown in investor activity has had a more material impact in these two states, NSW in particular.
Overall, the total value of finance approvals ex owner occupier refi was up 2.1%mth, and 1.7%yr. That compares to turnover, down around 16%yr, auction clearance rates, down over 13ppts, and an abrupt slowdown in price growth, down from a double digit pace mid-year to a sub-5% annual pace currently.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/1/18/SEGMENT.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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While the pull back in investor finance approvals is broadly consistent with macro-prudential tightening measures impacting this segment, the continued strength in owner-occupier activity has been surprising, particularly given material slowdown in wider housing market activity evident in other measures. Overall, the total value of loan approvals including investor loans and ex refi has firmed over the last year, up 1.7%yr.
The comparison with the previous macro-prudential tightening episode in 2015 is also intriguing. This resulted in a similar slowdown in wider market measures and a sizeable 10%+ decline in the total value of finance approvals.
The differences are puzzling but may be an indication that weaker foreign buyer demand – evident in the wider housing market performance but not captured by finance approvals – may have had a greater hand in the 2017 slowdown.
Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Housing's puzzling strength: Matthew Hassan

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In what is already shaping as a hotly contested retail high season, the early signs are not promising for consumer spending over Christmas 2017. The picture from November's Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment survey is one of income pressures, nervousness about the year ahead and consumers looking to keep Christmas spending on a tight rein. A repeat of 2016's 'tepid' Christmas spend looks likely.
November's Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment survey showed the consumer mood slipping back into slightly pessimistic territory after a brief moment of optimism in October (see <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/Article/29127" target="_blank">Consumer Sentiment Index back below 100)</a>. Responses to our annual question on Christmas spending underscore the lacklustre tone. The question asks if consumers expect to spend less, about the same, or more on Christmas gifts than last year. Just under a third of Australians expect to spend less on gifts this year than last, with 54% expecting to spend about the same and just 11% spending more – the lowest proportion since we began running this question in 2009.
The simplest summary measure of intentions is an index based on the net balance of responses, i.e. 100 + %more – %less. On this basis, the 2017 reading is 78, down 2.3% from 79.9 in 2016. This year's read is comparable to the 2009-13 period which saw five successive years of readings in the 77-79 range . While far from the disastrous, 66 reading in the depths of the GFC, the 2017 index is also a far cry from the most recent peak in 2015 (87.0) and the record high in 2007 (91). Overall, the 78 reading is broadly consistent with flat per capita growth in retail sales. Allowing for population gains, that points to aggregate retail sales growth of around 1.6%yr, in line with the current subdued pace and down on the 2% gain in 2016.
The survey detail offers few redeeming positives. The state responses show consumers in Vic and NSW are a little less inclined to restrain spending and Qlder's are less pessimistic than last year but those in SA and WA are tilting more towards cut backs (the latter a notable weak spot). Sub-group variations were also fairly minor although responses amongst those aged over 55, middle income earners and consumers with a mortgage show bigger pull backs vs a year ago.
The wider picture from Consumer Sentiment is of a similar lead-in to last year. That puts the Christmas 2017 in the 'middle of the pack' by long term historical standards but will clearly come as a disappointment for Australian retailers who have already endured a lacklustre, stop-start year for sales. 
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Matthew Hassan

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