<p>Investor appetite for Queenstown apartments is strengthening as supply constraints and four-season tourism continue to underpin demand across the alpine region.</p>

<p>In Frankton’s masterplanned Remarkables Park precinct,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>’s 141-apartment Mountain Oak development is attracting repeat and yield-focused buyers seeking exposure to that market dynamic.</p>

<p>Brandon, who specifically targeted Queenstown as an investment location, said the combination of price point and limited new supply made Mountain Oak stand out.</p>

<p>“It is a quality product in a location that struggles to densify,” he said, referencing Queenstown’s land-locked geography and development limitations.</p>

<p><img alt="From slopes to markets: Mountain Oak connects residents to the best of Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/658d4f_48c3ec1ae5df4a2cab7d23c07c7f51b3~mv2.jpg?VersionId=27K8oQ4ExDN8Yu70VHDa9Olq59XU36m3" /></p>

<p>Having spent significant time in the region, Brandon pointed to its global reputation and consistent visitation as key fundamentals.</p>

<p>“Queenstown is a known destination from people all over the world. The place is land locked and there are issues building there. It’s also busy all year round.”</p>

<p>That four-season economy, driven by skiing and snowboarding in winter and hiking, cycling and water-based tourism in summer, was also central to Sherry’s decision to invest.</p>

<p>“I believe the four-season tourism has major appeal as it would ensure that the property will not remain empty, unlike other areas in NZ,” she said.</p>

<p><img alt="From slopes to markets: Mountain Oak connects residents to the best of Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Living_WEB.jpg?VersionId=3LglY20Jp_MAzQYdvwODRWvtjL.cZcqI" /></p>

<p>Mountain Oak has been structured to respond to that sustained demand, with 365-day visitor accommodation consent underpinning a mix of one-bedroom, flexi, two-bedroom and dual-key configurations that can operate as either short-term visitor accommodation or long-term rental housing. Dual-key apartments comprise two self-contained residences on one title, allowing owners to generate dual income streams or occupy one side while leasing the other.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Under Safari Group’s optional visitor accommodation management model, owners receive 60 per cent of the annual income generated by their apartment, with 24/7 on-site management, guest services and listing exposure included. Independent appraisal modelling suggests gross yields of up to 15 per cent for certain two-bedroom configurations, based on estimated nightly rates and occupancy assumptions.</p>

<p>For Brandon, that flexibility aligned with his broader investment strategy.</p>

<p>“It helps to know that I can have it managed either way,” he said. “My focus is on purchasing high yield cashflow properties.”</p>

<p><img alt="Investors back Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments as Queenstown’s four-season economy drives demand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c786ba7f-f974-4ce3-9833-1bcd9f2938d6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/658d4f_ae3c049f388f4c13bf801649d91cbb4a~mv2%20%281%29.jpg?VersionId=J25uvzGdvtFaXGzuwz28ewJ9wWzbtvur" /></p>

<p>He selected a one-bedroom flexi configuration, citing both yield and adaptability.</p>

<p>“I work remotely and can travel to most places and work. I enjoy making spaces that work for the lifestyle that I live and it seems that others also enjoy it.”</p>

<p>Ranging from 54 to 57 square metres, the one-bedroom flexi incorporates a separate multipurpose room suited to a home office, additional storage, or accommodation for ski gear and seasonal equipment, an increasingly relevant inclusion for buyers balancing remote work and alpine travel.</p>

<p>Interiors feature underfloor heating in bathrooms and a heat pump in the main living area, supporting year-round comfort. Upper-level apartments are positioned to maximise natural light, with sliding windows and balustrades in select residences enhancing outlook and ventilation. Units are available in both light and dark interior schemes.</p>

<p><img alt="Investors back Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments as Queenstown’s four-season economy drives demand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8f9492e9-8ee0-4aae-856c-8996ed9d9a06" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/658d4f_7d066f5200024c1aa472d01e2dc776ed~mv2.jpg?VersionId=MLR5xn6fLqPdBi7vxyRT.1zhQX3Ln0Ev" /></p>

<p>Sherry, a repeat Safari Group buyer, said her previous experience with the developer provided confidence to secure another apartment.</p>

<p>“Their developments have always finished on time, the quality has been high, and I didn't feel that my investment may be at risk,” she said. “Knowledge of the developer and our two existing Safari apartments gave us the confidence to proceed with this one.”</p>

<p>Safari Group has delivered more than 2,000 hotel units and residential apartments nationally and is now undertaking its fifth Queenstown development, reinforcing buyer confidence in delivery capability.</p>

<p>Although Sherry was not initially targeting Queenstown due to its price profile, prior visits reshaped her view of the market.</p>

<p>“I absolutely love this region and believe it is a major tourist attraction, which led me to the decision to invest.”</p>

<p><img alt="How Mountain Oak Apartments draws holiday home buyers to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" /></p>

<p>Construction commenced in June 2025, with completion anticipated by mid-2027. Apartments are priced from NZ$639,000, and the development carries Overseas Investment Office exemption approval, allowing non-residents to purchase.</p>

<p>For both investors, the purchase represents a balance of income generation and long-term portfolio positioning in a tightly held alpine market.</p>

<p>“I firmly believe my investments in Safari developments are a combination of all these elements,” Sherry said. “The location of this project enabled me to diversify.”</p>

<p>As Queenstown continues to attract year-round visitation alongside constrained housing supply, Mountain Oak’s dual-key flexibility, optional on-site management structure and established developer track record are resonating with investors seeking exposure to the region’s resilient tourism economy.</p>


Joel Robinson

Investors back Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments as Queenstown’s four-season economy drives demand

<p>The Minns Labor Government is today unveiling a game-changing new precinct at Bays West – delivering up to 8,500 well-located homes, including a minimum of 10 per cent affordable and essential worker homes - directly above the new Bays West Metro Station currently under construction.</p>

<p>The landmark transformation will convert underutilised government-owned port land on the Harbour into Sydney’s newest suburb, while retaining important deep-water port facilities to support Sydney’s working harbour.</p>

<p>Located just minutes from the Sydney CBD and connected to a world-class metro, ferry, walking and cycling links, the Bays West precinct will rebalance housing growth towards well-serviced inner-city locations and help tackle the state’s housing crisis.</p>

<p><img alt="Bays West" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c5f01d10-0b6b-49de-8033-d3ef2728cb6d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-03-04%20at%204.06.12%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=UA6_r._1jYROJ5tFNXMHqjNYLKYWIN.Y" /></p>

<p>Affordable housing will be embedded from the outset, including dedicated homes for essential workers such as nurses, teachers, paramedics, firefighters and police so they can live closer to the communities they serve.</p>

<p>The precinct will combine new housing with public open space, opening public access to the waterfront for the first time in more than 100 years.</p>

<p>Night-time entertainment and creative industries will be anchored by the revitalisation of the historic White Bay Power Station as a cultural and community destination, connected to the harbour across a new expansive public forecourt.</p>

<p>Planning of the area will prioritise connectivity, including active transport links to neighbouring communities such as Rozelle, Balmain and Glebe, improved pedestrian access to the waterfront, and connections to the CBD, including an active transport link across the Glebe Island Bridge.</p>

<p>The Government will lead a master planning process that will include an international design competition to guide development across the precinct, ensuring homes, essential infrastructure, jobs, public spaces and transport links are delivered together.</p>

<p>It will be led by a new delivery agency to be established over the coming weeks, which will report to Minister Kamper who already has oversight of major precinct renewal projects including at Blackwattle Bay and Barangaroo. Once established, the publicly owned land in the precinct will be transferred to the new agency.</p>

<p>This is the first new suburb that has been built in inner Sydney in decades, it will see homes built alongside the Bays West Metro Station ensuring young people, families and downsizers are only minutes away from the CBD. As part of the transformation of the Bays West precinct, bulk port operations – including cement, gypsum and sugar handling – will cease on Glebe Island by no later than 2030.</p>

<p><img alt="Glebe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="46ef3c23-2ce1-4912-b8ba-5247de19d7b9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-03-04%20at%204.02.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=I5xKa7hLNlsueMsltA2dsYrRYtZCKvZz" /></p>

<p>The Government will work closely with industry to minimise impacts and ensure the continuity of supply. This includes a commitment of $270 million to improve road connections around the port at Port Kembla and to investigate increased rail freight capacity.</p>

<p>Working harbour operations across the precinct will be consolidated, mostly into White Bay, ensuring the precinct will continue to provide critical services for the harbour, including boat maintenance and marine construction and as a base for tug boats and for emergency services.</p>

<p>A new staging area will be established in White Bay, securing the future of the New Year’s Eve fireworks, Vivid and other major events for decades to come.</p>

<p><img alt="Glebe island" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0554b153-b225-445b-a633-75aecea7dec9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-03-04%20at%204.06.17%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=P45ABy8KLuwjzVf04APWfeC4aOMA1Ngx" /></p>

<p>The cruise terminal will be retained in its current location, meaning tourists arriving in Sydney will be welcomed by the new precinct, with new shore-power facilities currently being installed that will reduce noise and emissions. The Sydney Heritage Fleet will also be offered new premises in White Bay.</p>

<p>Deep-water berths will be retained to preserve Sydney Harbour’s strategic operational capability, and the removal of the existing 1970s industrial silos, currently used as a billboard, as well as to store cement and sugar, will unlock new opportunities for public space and future housing.</p>

<p>“Right above a new metro station and minutes from the CBD, we’re delivering thousands of homes where people actually need them - close to work, close to services and close to transport,"&nbsp;Premier of New South Wales Chris Minns said.</p>

<p>“Importantly, this precinct will include affordable and essential worker housing from day one, so nurses, teachers, paramedics and police can live closer to the communities they serve.</p>

<p>“We understand that not everyone will welcome change, but cities don’t stand still. If Sydney is going to remain a place young people and families can afford to live in, we have to use well-located land better and plan for the future.”</p>


Glebe Island to accomodate 8,500 new homes near new Bays Metro Station

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Group</a> has unveiled its exclusive penthouse collection at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Amargo</a>, its new apartment development in Palm Beach.</p>

<p>There are just four penthouses as part of the collection, however only three remain for sale, with a Palm Beach local already snapping up one of the apartments prior to its launch.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>“We are thrilled to unveil the debut penthouses within the Flourish story,” said Christie Leet, founder of Sherpa Group.</p>

<p>“The penthouses epitomise unparalleled luxury and contemporary elegance, offering an exclusive experience in modern living.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=362273]</p>

<p>Located at 6-12 Sixth Avenue, the penthouses will crown Amargo, which will rise 18 levels and offer a diverse product mix of one, two, and three-bedroom apartments, attracting a wide demographic of buyers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Creating a multigenerational community is core for us at Sherpa," Leet added.</p>

<p>"Amargo embodies this ethos, welcoming first-home buyers, families and right-sizers alike – ensuring everyone has the opportunity to thrive.”</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=362271]</p>

<p>The penthouses, which range in price from just over $3 million to $4.6 million, each have three bedrooms, three bathrooms, and extensive balconies. Select penthouses will have&nbsp;dedicated media rooms. They have four-metre-high ceilings, Gaggenau appliances, and natural stone materials.</p>

<p>Flourish is crowned by an&nbsp;800 sqm rooftop retreat with a&nbsp;pool, pool deck cabanas and day beds, private outdoor barbecues and pizza oven, an internal private dining space, as well as a gym, yoga zones, steam rooms, and hot and cold magnesium pools.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=306037]</p>

<p>“We’re really excited about what we’re delivering here- Flourish is more than just apartments; it’s about creating a place where people feel truly at home,” Leet said.</p>

<p>Construction is already well underway on Amargo, with residents expected to move in by Q2 2027. The project is around 85 per cent sold.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=146527]</p>


A first look inside Flourish penthouse collection at Palm Beach

<p>Builder-developer Urban Property Group (UPG) is continuing to expand into new markets. UPG is heading to the Hills District, where it is planning a 40-storey mixed use building near Castle Hill Metro Station.</p>

<p>They've gone down the favoured developer route of a State Significant Development Application, which should see developments approved within the space of nine months.</p>

<p>The tower will comprise 371 apartments, 42 of which will be affordable housing, above a ground-floor retail precinct at 16-20 Old Castle Hill Road, on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and within walking distance of Castle Hill Metro Station, an area identified for higher density under both local and state strategic planning frameworks.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/studiosc">Studio SC</a>, the tower would rise from a brick podium base, accommodating one retail tenancy and communal open space, before transitioning to a slender glazed residential form above. Six basement levels are proposed beneath the building to house parking and services.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Urban Property unveils 40-storey mixed-use tower in Castle Hill with 371 homes and affordable housing component" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="08dc82f9-b826-4e18-8c60-4c90f7472317" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%20G%20%28b%29%20-%20Ground%20level%20render.jpg?VersionId=EOv1ly45k_Bc1F73C0hdwXSG4FVSTETt" /></p>

<p>“Castle Hill is undergoing a significant transformation, evolving from a traditionally low-rise suburban centre into a true metropolitan destination anchored by the Sydney Metro Northwest," the Architectural Design Report prepared by Studio SC noted.</p>

<p>The majority of apartments (194) will be two-bedrooms. 90 one-bedroom apartments are planned, 83 three-beds, and four four-bedroom apartments.</p>

<p>Studio SC’s design adopts a podium-and-tower composition, with warm-toned masonry at the lower levels intended to anchor the building within its streetscape context.</p>

<p>"At the podium, the architecture is anchored through solid brickwork in warm, earthy tones, reflecting the local sandstone formations and the natural colour palette of the surrounding hills," Studio SC added.</p>

<p>Above, the tower transitions to a lighter glass expression, articulated with fins and tonal variation to reduce visual bulk and respond to changing light conditions.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Urban Property unveils 40-storey mixed-use tower in Castle Hill with 371 homes and affordable housing component" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f13cb2ee-ebfc-4204-9aba-e2dbd9e5d4bd" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%20G%20%28a%29%20-%20Pool%20view.jpg?VersionId=Dnpusa.b5d6Nkx2clPlzWosDdh_1QW2V" /></p>

<p>Urban Property Group is one of Sydney's most active developers. They have projects currently under construction in Little Bay, Penrith, and Macquarie Park, with future projects earmarked for Wollongong.</p>

<p>Castle Hill has been one of the most popular suburbs for development across Sydney in the last five years, as developers scramble for land around the newly extended Sydney Metro.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Kassis Homes kicked it all off with Grand Reve, along with Deicorp who has delivered over 1,000 apartments in the area and continues to develop. The likes of Dubai-backed developer Arada will take to market their project in the coming months, while Masscon has just launched Avenue on Cadman Crescent.</p>


First Look: Urban Property Group unveils 40-storey mixed-use tower in Castle Hill

<p>One of the Gold Coast’s ‘bridesmaid suburbs’ is experiencing a wave of local suitors, with the latest sales figures from <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> revealing over two thirds of buyers will be relocating from within a 5km average radius of the 16-hectare masterplan.&nbsp;</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lewis-land-group">Lewis Land</a> Head of Development Michael Long said the figures underlined a powerful shift for Biggera Waters that would reshape it into a thriving force behind the region’s growth corridor.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“We’ve seen a huge wave of interest from residents of Arundel, Paradise Point and Runaway Bay who recognise the urban transformation that is well underway here and want to be part of it,” Long said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Interestingly, 25 per cent of our Gold Coast buyers are also coming from the city’s southern hotspots, including Burleigh and Palm Beach.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/biggera-waters-qld-4216">Biggera Waters</a>, and Harbour Shores in particular, has all the advantages of waterfront living with the benefits of resort-style amenity, for greater value than the southern beachfront suburbs.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=290031]</p>

<p>Long said half of the purchasers at Harbour Shores were under the age of 55.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“When locals choose to stay local, it creates a genuine community, turning the most sustainable master planned community in the Gold Coast’s history into a diverse and vibrant ‘village of villages’.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=336743]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/colliers">Colliers</a> Gold Coast Sales Director David Higgins said the hyper-local market demand was unique to Harbour Shores when compared to other projects in the region.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“We are seeing as much as 60 per cent of new apartment sales on other projects go to interstate or international buyers, but Harbour Shores is bucking this trend and attracting a larger proportion of the local market,” Higgins said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Only 13 per cent of Harbour Shores’ existing purchasers are interstate. There has been a resounding endorsement from local buyers and that validates the project’s vision and investment in design, lifestyle and liveability.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=4579]</p>

<p>Harbour Shores is 16ha visionary masterplan dedicated to wellness and an active, healthy lifestyle. Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, Harbour Shores embeds extensive green connections and more than 2.5km in pedestrian networks – including a 1.2km boardwalk along the water’s edge.</p>

<p>Harbour Shores was recently recognised by the BETTER FUTURE World Design Awards 2026 as a silver winner in the category of environmental sustainability. Boasting a 6 Star Green Star Communities V1.1 rating, Harbour Shores will deliver more than 2,000 homes over the next ten years.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The first stage will deliver three residential collections including luxury three and four-bedroom waterfront villas at The Residences, as well as apartments in The Waterline and Palm House, surrounded by resort-style amenities.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]</p>


Biggera Waters no longer a 'bridesmaid suburb' as Gold Coast locals jump to Harbour Shores

Labour Force

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<p><span>Australia's favoured share market index, the ASX 200 ("XJO"), continues to meander along, now miserably hovering below 5,500, having previously once again threatened 6,000.</span></p>
<p><span>It's a monster day ahead for news with the Labour Force figures out at 11.30am.</span></p>
<div id="post-body-5375889496668172470" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>After a somewhat downcast speech from Reserve Bank Governor Stevens yesterday, analysts will be awaiting these latest figures with bated breath.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Before we move on to look at the employment figures in detail, a quick look at why the residential construction boom has plenty of gas left in its tank yet.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">New home finance up</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>The <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5609.0" target="_blank">Housing Finance</a> figures for April showed a moderate increase in the seasonally adjusted number of new dwelling commitments to 2,766 in the month.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While this was an improvement on the March figure, smoothing the data on a 4mMA basis, shows that the trend looks to have passed its peak.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/06/11/HF5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>In terms of the value of loans written for new dwellings, the data recorded a record high of $1.03 billion in April, reflective of the expensive nature of new housing stock in Australia.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Investors both domestically and from offshore pay a hefty premium to buy new, and this has taken rolling annual new dwellings finance its highest ever level at $11.6 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/06/11/HF1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Despite the trend in new dwelling commitments looking decidedly toppy, this overlooks that a sizeable percentage of new dwelling sales are made to foreign investors, particularly in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and elsewhere.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Naturally enough, these offshore sales are not picked up in our domestic housing finance figures.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Most other indicators, including record high building approvals and forecast dwelling starts, point towards an industry which is now at or approaching its full capacity.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Typically skills and materials shortages at this stage in the construction cycle will lead to rapid inflation in the build cost of new dwellings, and there are already some indicators of this dynamic.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In particular, the Reserve Bank's liaison work has noted a shortage of bricklayers and project managers in the residential space, despite the widespread availability of construction workers as the mining investment boom dies its long, slow death.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Construction loans</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unsurprisingly most buyers continue to seek finance to buy established property, although if you look closely, construction finance is rising steadily.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/06/11/HF2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Drilling into this a little further, the rolling annual value of construction loans to owner occupiers appears to have peaked out at a record $22 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, rolling 12 monthly construction finance commitments to investors continue to rise, now up to $9.1 billion of loans written, which is also a record high.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/06/11/HF3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Renovations</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>If there is one genuine bubble in the Australian economy, it is surely in the irrationally exuberant number of renovation TV shows advertised on the television (I've never actually watched one, I should disclose...not my thing).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Alas, outside Sydney, where renovations activity is both robust and rising, nobody seems to be undertaking any renovation projects themselves! </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sure this was only the first month of the quarter, but the contribution to GDP growth from major alterations and additions in the second quarter of the year already looks likely like to be nil.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/06/11/HF6.jpg" alt=""></div>
</div>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<br><span>Meh.</span><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br><div>Some survey indices have lately pointed to a contraction in apartment and attached dwelling construction.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>These indices are surely broken!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Just a few days wandering around the capital cities and major regional centres would tell you as much.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The residential construction boom continues, fuelled largely by sales to offshore buyers, and for this reason, the data on new dwelling commitments domestically doesn't give us the full picture.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The construction loans data charted above - combined with record high building approvals and a strapping number of dwelling starts - imply that the next two years will see a sustained high level of activity in home building.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<em><span>PETE WARGENT</span> is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br><p><em>His book '<a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>' is out now.</em></p>
</div>
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Residential construction boom to continue: Pete Wargent

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<div>The ABS released its Detailed Labour Force figures for October 2015 which provided further detail on the extraordinary rate of job gains in New South Wales, where employment has grown at an electric pace over the past year. </div>
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<div>Sydney recorded another strong month of gains and has created +85,000 positions over the year to October. Interestingly after a fairly dismal four years, the rest of the state has also created +51,000 new roles. </div>
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<div>Of Australia's other major labour markets Melbourne (+78,000) and lately the improving Greater Brisbane region (+43,000) have accounted for the bulk of new positions.</div>
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<div>By contrast over the past five years since October 2010 total employment in Adelaide has declined by 5,500.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Unemployment divergence</span></strong><br><br><div>Looking at capital city unemployment rates on a rolling annual basis shows that while unemployment rates are rising in Perth and Adelaide, elsewhere they have been declining.</div>
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<div>Sydney has been the king of employment gains in recent times, and as such recorded an unemployment rate for October of just 4.7 per cent across the Greater Sydney region.</div>
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<div>Over the past year some of the consistently lowest unemployment rates in Australia have been seen in Sydney's Northern Beaches (2.5 per cent), Eastern Suburbs (3.2 per cent), North Sydney &amp; Hornsby (3.7 per cent) and Inner West (4.3 per cent).</div>
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<div><span>At the other end of the scale the unemployment rate in Adelaide continues to trend up to well above 7 per cent, with further jobs losses subsequently reported in the month of November in the struggling state of South Australia.</span></div>
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<div>After a lift in unemployment as the resources capital expenditure boom passed its peak, Greater Brisbane has seen a pleasing improvement in its local economy.</div>
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<div>Employment gains have picked up to a solid pace and the rolling annual unemployment rate has trended down from 6.3 per cent to 5.9 per cent through this calendar year to date.</div>
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<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Mining regions suffer</span></strong><br><em><br></em><em>Commsec</em> put out a usueful reseach note which reported that mining regions - and coal mining regions in particular - have suffered, with jobless rates in the Hunter Valley and Mackay having broadly doubled.<br><br>This in itself comes as no great surprise - I predicted as much here on this blog 14 months ago.<br><br>Other regions with elevated levels of unemployment have included Wide Bay, Logan-Beaudesert, Adelaide North, Townsville, and Cairns.<br><br>The news for regional Australia is far from all bad, however.</div>
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<br>While there is no doubt that many parts of regional Queensland are doing it very tough, there have been improvements in unemployment rates in the Wide Bay region, the Hunter Valley, Newcastle &amp; Lake Macquarie, and Geelong (and possibly several other regions, subject to the vagaries of sampling variability).<br><br>Indeed, after some ugly results early in the year the figures reported for regional unemployment have generally improved of late, so perhaps some of the mining fallout is now in the rear view mirror, as contractors migrate back to their respective capital cities.<br><br>That said, total regional employment growth outside New South Wales (and to some extent Queensland) has been weak, while new roles may also be lower paid than those which they replaced.</div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Mining regions struggle: Pete Wargent

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>As expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to keep the cash rate unchanged at 0.75%.</p>
<p>It is noteworthy that the Board has also not adjusted its growth forecasts for 2020 and 2021 holding them at 2.75% and 3% respectively. The discussion around the two recent shocks to growth – bushfires and coronavirus – emphasises the likely temporary impact of both although the statement does appropriately point out that “it is too early to determine how long lasting the impact [of the coronavirus] will be”.</p>
<p>Further emphasising this tentative approach to coronavirus developments, the description around the world economy has changed: “global growth is expected to be a little stronger this year and next than it was last year.” That compares to the December statement which only referred to: “the outlook for the global economy remains reasonable” – a surprising modest lift in confidence around the world economy given the current recent market developments.</p>
<p>On the other hand the fall in the unemployment rate since the last Board meeting, from 5.3% to 5.1% has been taken on board and the new forecast for the unemployment rate in 2020 appears to be 5.1% down from 5.25% at the December Board meeting. For 2021 the expectation that the unemployment rate will fall slightly below 5% is maintained.</p>
<p>It is of some interest that the statement does not repeat the description “gentle turning point” although the arguments pointing to an improving growth outlook – the low level of interest rates; tax refunds; ongoing spending on infrastructure; a brighter outlook for resources – is now supplemented by a more confident outlook for the residential construction cycle where the statement points to an expected recovery later this year.</p>
<p>It is important that the sentiment in the December statement that “the Australian economy can sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment” has been repeated. This emphasises the desirability, from the Board’s perspective, of further falls in the unemployment rate.</p>
<p>The recent weakness in the Australian dollar is recognised with the AUD being described as “around its lowest level over recent times”. That compares with the previous description of “at the lower end of its range in recent times”. There may be some inconsistency in this observation given that if, as the growth forecasts imply, the economy bounces back from the short term shocks, a recovery in the AUD is almost certainly going to be an outcome.</p>
<p>In the final paragraph, the statement repeats the sentiment of the December statement emphasising: 1) the long and variable lags in the transmission of monetary policy; and 2) the Board is prepared to ease policy further if needed. The third point used in December, that “[the Board] continues to monitor developments, including in the labour market” has been modified to “The Board will continue to monitor developments carefully, including in the labour market”. Arguably this final difference can be interpreted as the Board being more uncertain about future developments and therefore wanting to emphasise its strong duty of care.</p>
<p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p>
<p>We have been surprised that the Board has retained its growth forecast for 2020 at 2.75% (around trend) given the weaker momentum which was apparent from the September quarter national accounts and developing questions around the global economy. It is also somewhat brave, given a range of leading indicators around the labour market, to assume that the recent surprise fall in the unemployment rate over the last two months, from 5.3% to 5.1%, will be sustained. Westpac’s forecast is for the unemployment rate to drift upwards over the first half of 2020.</p>
<p>The uncertainty around the coronavirus poses substantial risks to economic forecasts but certainly the impact of the virus over the course of the first quarter both globally and domestically has to be quite damaging. It seems unlikely that subsequent stimulus policies will be able to fully offset the short term damage done to confidence and activity implying a realistic downward revision to growth forecasts, both globally and domestically.</p>
<p>Westpac continues to expect that a combination of a more moderate growth outlook and an unexpected (by the RBA) deterioration in the labour market will require a further policy response. Our forecast is that the next rate cut will occur in April followed by a further cut in August.</p>
<p><strong>BILL EVANS </strong><em>is the Chief Economist at Westpac</em></p>
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RBA remain optimistic but cash rate cuts ahead

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>The July Labour Force Survey was a robust update on employment (+41.1k) but with participation hitting a new record high at the same time, unemployment remained sticky at 5.2%. Given this strength in participation, even if employment growth continued to outperform expectations from here, it is hard to see unemployment getting down to 5% any time soon, let alone getting down to the RBA’s natural rate of 4.5%.</p>
<p>This matters for wages, even more so given that the underemployment rate (those who are working who desire and are able to work more hours) didn’t improve as much as unemployment did through 2018. Underemployment was trending higher earlier this year compared to unemployment until the surprise drop in June. But in July, underemployment bumped higher to 8.4%, still better than 8.6% in May but this lift did lock in a trend drift higher.</p>
<p>Given rising participation and rising underemployment, we were not surprised to see another soft wages update from the June quarter Wage Price Index (WPI). In the June quarter the WPI lifted 0.6% vs market expectations for a 0.5% rise and up slightly from the 0.5% rise in the March quarter. This held the annual rate flat at 2.3%yr which is a modest lift from the low of 1.9% in 2017 but can hardly be described as a breakneck pace.</p>
<p>The June quarter wage print was 0.61% at two decimal places with a 0.54% rise in private sector wage rates and a very solid 0.82% rise in public sector wages, the largest quarterly rise in public sector wages since Q1 2014. But this followed the smallest quarterly rise in public sector wages since March 2000 of 0.45% in the March quarter, highlighting greater than normal volatility in this series.</p>
<p>The ABS noted that in the June survey, the most significant contribution to wage growth in the public sector component came from health care and social assistance, with Victoria reporting a number of large increases as employees there had their pay adjusted to ensure wage parity with other states.</p>
<p>Victorian public sector wages grew 1.5%, there was a more average rise in Queensland of 0.5% while NSW reported a below average increase of 0.2%. In the year to June, public sector wages have been growing at 2.6%yr.</p>
<p>Contrast the lift in public wages against the flattening pace in private sector wages. Private sector wages printed a rise of 0.54% in each of the last two quarters seeing the annual pace ease back to 2.3%yr from 2.4%yr in March which was the fastest pace since December 2014.</p>
<p>Overall, we have to admit the pace of growth in private sector wages has been very disappointing. We have found that private sector wages have a good relationship with underutilisation (unemployment plus underutilisation) with a lag of around two quarters.</p>
<p>Which then leads to an ongoing conundrum: why are wages growing so slowly in NSW, the state that previously had underutilsation that was well below the national average (thus the tightest labour market) since the second half of 2015?</p>
<p>Contrast this with WA, the state that has had the highest rate of underutilisation and is now experiencing well below average wage outcomes. Yet wages in the state of Victoria have been more responsive to changes in labour market conditions.</p>
<p>The recent modest acceleration in the pace of wages growth in Victoria to 2.9% maps nicely against the decline in underutilisation from late 2016 to early 2018. Since the second half of 2018 underutilisation has started to drift higher again suggesting the acceleration in wage inflation should moderate in Victoria (excluding any effect from public sector wage equalisation) as we move through 2019.</p>
<p>It is a puzzle as to why NSW wages have underperformed the tightness in labour market conditions, so we can't be confident how far labour market tightness in Victoria will lift wages. We also have to take care when considering how much of the Victorian pressure on wages will be passed onto other states.</p>
<p><em>Read the full report: <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/August/er20190819BullLabourForce.pdf" target="_blank">'Australian July Labour Force' (PDF 179kb)</a></em></p>
<p><em><strong>JUSTIN SMIRK</strong> is ‎a senior economist for Westpac </em></p>
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Employment remains robust but unemployment and wages are unmoved: Justin Smirk

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<p><strong>EXPERT OBSERVATION</strong></p>
<p>A robust update but participation hit a new record high at the same time. So while the employment growth continues to outperform expectations the unemployment rate is very sticky around 5.2%.  As such, it is hard to see unemployment getting below 5% any time soon, let alone getting down the RBA’s natural rate of 4.5%.</p>
<p>Westpac is forecasting the unemployment rate to rise from here on the back of a soft patch in employment.</p>
<p>In the past year the largest share of employment gains have been for full-time females, male full-time employment has grown slower than total employment, suggesting employment gains remain focused in the services industries that are rich in female employment.</p>
<p>This update gives us comfort that the RBA will opt to wait-and-see at the September Board meeting and leave the cash rate unchanged.</p>
<p>The July Labour Force Survey reported a 41.1k gain in employment. As we head into the second half of the year, employment remains quite robust with a three month average gain of 28k in July, unchanged from June and slightly down from 35k in May.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/westpac%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
<p> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/westpac%201.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>The May survey reported a strong +45.2k gain in employment with participation surging to a new record high of 66.1%, boosting the labour force and therefore holding unemployment flat at 5.2% despite the strong gain in employment. </span></p>
<p><span>Since then, while the month to month employment gains have been volatile, the trend remains robust and unemployment has been flat at 5.2%.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/westpac%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/westpac%202.jpg" alt=""> </span></p>
<p><span><span>In the year to July, employment has grown 333k or 2.6%. The pace of employment growth has eased back from 2.9%yr in May but it is still stronger than the 2.2%yr at the end of 2018, while the six month annualised pace has was flat at 2.4%yr. </span></span></p>
<p><span><span>Our Jobs Index suggests employment should be growing around 2.4%yr currently before slowing to 2.1%yr through Q4.</span></span></p>
<p><span><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/westpac%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: </span></p>
<p> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/westpac%203.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>We think it is worth noting that June employment was revised to –2.3k from +0.5k with June now recording the first negative print on employment in three years. </p>
<p>In July, unemployment was flat at 5.2% (5.23% at two decimal places - it was 5.24% in June) with participation rising to a new record high of 66.1% (66.06% at two decimal places from 65.96% in June) the labour force grew a very solid 41.9k.</p>
<p>We had expected that a soft employment print would have been associated with a moderation in participation so we are not surprised that a robust employment gain is matched by a lift in participation.</p>
<p>Today’s update is further confirmation of a robust upward trend in participation, but there was a shift on which state is in the driving seat.</p>
<p>NSW hit a record high of participation of 66.2% in May and has since eased back a bit as has Victoria, which leaves Qld supporting the more recent gains in participation.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/westpac%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:</p>
<p> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/westpac%204.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>In June we were surprised by the drop in underemployment (those employed who are willing and able to work more hours) which fell 0.4ppts to 8.2%. </span></p>
<p><span>Underemployment did not improve as much as unemployment through 2018 and had recently been trending higher compared to the unemployment rate. But in July, underemployment bumped back up to 8.4%, still down on the 8.6% in May but it did help to lock in a stronger trend.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/westpac%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
<p><span> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/westpac%205.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p>Underemployment lifted in both NSW and Victoria (from 7.5% to 7.9% and 7.9% to 8.5% respectively) while it fell in Queensland and WA (from 8.6% to 8.5% and 9.6% to 9.4% respectively).</p>
<p>We note how high underemployment is in Victoria compared to unemployment — unemployment is well below the national average (4.8% vs. 5.2% nationally) whereas the underemployment rate of 8.5% is higher than the national average of 8.2%.</p>
<p>In the last year to July, the gains in employment have mostly been full-time (255.6k/3.0%yr) and with females gaining slightly more than males (153.8k/4.9%yr for females, 101.8k/1.9%yr for males).</p>
<p>The mix is interesting as female full-time employment has lifted 153.8k (4.9%yr) in the year while male fulltime rose 101.8k (1.9%yr).</p>
<p>In contrast male part-time employment has lifted 59.2k in the year (4.8%) while female part-time grew just 17.8k (0.6%yr).</p>
<p>It does appear that employment gains continued to be focused in the services sectors that are rich in female full-time employment positions.  </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/westpac%206.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: </p>
<p> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/westpac%206.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Employment growth has held together and has been quite robust so far in 2019 with the July update suggesting the pace of growth may be picking up — somewhat unexpectedly given the softening leading indicators.</p>
<p>Unemployment is flat around 5.2% but underemployment is drifting higher as the employment to population ratio has held around 62.5% to 62.6% since April highlighting that the gains in employment have only been pacing the gains in working age population.</p>
<p>In the year to July, employment has grown 161.4/4.0%yr in NSW compared to 97.8k/3.0%yr gain in Victoria. Employment grew more modestly in Queensland (57.8k/2.3%yr) and just 6.9k/0.8%yr in SA and slight better in WA with 19.5k/1.5%yr in WA.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/westpac%207.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: </p>
<p> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/westpac%207.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Since December the unemployment rate has risen 0.1ppt in NSW to 4.4% (the national low), +0.6ppt in Victoria to 4.8% with a smaller 0.3ppt in Queensland at 6.4% but a solid 0.9ppt lift in SA to 6.9%, the highest unemployment rate in Australia.</p>
<p>The only state to record a decline in unemployment from December is WA where it fell –0.4ppt to 5.9% which is still above the national average.</p>
<p>For complete chart pack <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/August/JulyLabour-FI_chart_pack.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>July Labour Force Chart Pack (pdf </strong><strong>334kb)</strong></a></p>
<p><em>JUSTIN SMIRK is ‎a senior economist for Westpac</em></p>
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Labour force data will leave the RBA on the sidelines next month: Justin Smirk

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION </p>
<p>The minutes of the April monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board have provided the clearest signal yet that the Bank would be prepared to cut the cash rate.</p>
<p>Firstly, the final section “Considerations for Monetary Policy” states “a lower level of interest rates could still be expected to support the economy through a depreciation of the exchange rate and via reducing required interest payments on borrowing, freeing up cash for other expenditure”.</p>
<p>The Board even sets out the conditions for a rate cut, “members also discussed the scenario where inflation did not move any higher and unemployment trended up, noting that a decrease in the cash rate would likely be appropriate in these circumstances”.</p>
<p>Recently the latest quarterly breakdown of employment by industry printed for the year to February.</p>
<p>We have considered this industry breakdown to try to find some insights into the RBA’s “tension” between the GDP and Employment Reports.</p>
<p>For a start it is reasonable to separate out the employment data into “cyclical” and “non-cyclical” sectors.</p>
<p>We have looked at “non-cyclical” covering: public administration; education and training; health care; and utilities.</p>
<p>Cyclical sectors are considered to be the other thirteen including: construction; manufacturing; retail and wholesale trade; accommodation; transport; finance; mining; real estate; recreation; and media.</p>
<p>The “non-cyclical “group has increased as a proportion of total employment from 27.9% in February 2008 to 31.9% in February 2019. That 4% increase in share represents 510,000 jobs in today’s workforce.</p>
<p>The cyclical group has fallen as a proportion of the workforce from 64.6% in February 2008 to 59.4% in February 2019.</p>
<p>It is important to note that “public administration” has increased by 18% over the last year but we assess that a considerable part of that increase has been due to reclassification of health and education workers from “private” to “public”.</p>
<p>Because we are including public; education; and health in the noncyclical category the reclassification does not distort the results.</p>
<p>Finally we have one remaining category – “professional services”.</p>
<p>This group represents 8.7% of total employment covering: management consulting; computer system design; accounting services; legal services; and engineers.</p>
<p>This category represents 8.7% of total employment having increased from 7.4% in February 2008.</p>
<p>Consider Table 1 to assess whether there has been any evidence of the impact of the slowdown in growth in the economy on employment.</p>
<p>The table uses the six month annualised growth rate for jobs in the three categories (using a two quarter average to smooth the series).</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/19/New%20Project%207.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The following observations are relevant:</p>
<ul>
<li>As noted by the RBA, overall momentum in the jobs market has held fairly steady over the last 18 months despite the slowdown in economic growth (2.6% in the six months to February 2018 to 2.2% in the last six months).</li>
<li>However, momentum in the “cyclical” sectors has slowed markedly from 2.9% in the six months to February 2018 to –0.4% in the six months to February 2019.</li>
<li>Momentum in the “non-cyclical” sectors has lifted considerably from 1.5% to 5.6% over the same period.</li>
<li>The professional services sector has been booming. So the “puzzle” about the labour market is not as opaque as might be expected.</li>
</ul>
<p>Non-cyclical jobs (dominated by government) have been strong and this sector is increasing as a proportion of total employment.</p>
<p>Cyclical sectors are slowing markedly and are falling as a proportion of total employment.</p>
<p>Given the lags and the cautious outlook for growth, employment in these sectors is likely to continue to slow.</p>
<p>It is not clear whether the “professional services” sector best fits in the cyclical or the non-cyclical categories.</p>
<p>Certainly, strong government spending in the infrastructure space is likely to explain a considerable part of the success of this category; the sharp lift in government regulations is also supporting this sector.</p>
<p>Furthermore, there is also likely to be a structural element to the success of this sector as companies embrace technology to boost productivity and substitute labour.</p>
<p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p>
<p>The Board of the RBA has nominated the labour market as the key for the policy outlook.</p>
<p>We are disappointed that ongoing low inflation and the persistent need to lower growth forecasts seems to be out-weighed by the employment “story”.</p>
<p>Our analysis points to a marked slowdown in jobs growth already being well underway in the cyclical sectors of the economy.</p>
<p>We expect that eventual recognition of these facts will keep the RBA on track for our expected first rate cut in August.</p>
<p><em><strong>Bill Evans</strong> is Chief Economist at Westpac.</em></p>
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Cyclical jobs are slowing, complicating the RBA’s employment puzzle: Bill Evans

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The February Labour Force Survey was a disappointing update on the Australian labour market reporting a fall in total employment along with unemployment rising to its highest level in 15 months.</p>
<p>So far in 2017 the labour market has been quite a bit softer than we had anticipated.</p>
<p>In February total employment declined 6.4k and the annual was flat at 0.9 percent/yr holding well under the pace that our Jobs Index suggests it should be – circa 1¾ percent/yr and accelerating to around 2¼ percent/yr by late 2017.</p>
<p>The ABS notes that in the February survey sample rotation may explain some of the weakness in the month. In March if the sample rolling in is more like the average  of the total sample then this would result a bit of a positive bump. But sample volatility does not explain the weakness seen over the last three months.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/13/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-13%20at%208.33.47%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/13/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-13%20at%208.33.47%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Our 20k forecast for March holds the annual pace at 0.9 percent/yr but we note that changing seasonality increases the risk to this forecast.</p>
<p>In February, the rise in full-time employment was not a positive sign as it did not broken the recent trend for a greater focus on part-time employment. In addition the weakening in hours worked further emphasised that labour demand is somewhat weaker than what the business surveys suggest.</p>
<p>The –6.4k decline in employment in February was reported with a 19.5k jump in the labour force due to a flat participation rate of 64.6. This is why the unemployment rate jumped 0.2ppt to 5.9 percent (5.87 percent unrounded).</p>
<p>In March, if participation holds steady, a 20k gain in employment will be enough to hold unemployment rate steady at 5.9 percent.</p>
<p>Weak hours worked in late 2015 were something of an early warning of the soft patch in employment. In January we had found it very promising that hours worked per employee lifted 0.8 percent in the two months to Jan. Since then hours worked have pulled back so we are again closely watching to see if this is presaging a further slowdown in employment.</p>
<p>We also note a small lift in employees who expect to lose their job due to their employer closing. This series can lead changes in the unemployment rate. </p>
<p><em>Justin Smirk is ‎senior economist, Westpac Group and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/westpac-group/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Looking for signs of stability in the labour market: Westpac's Justin Smirk

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<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/68802/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Over the last few years, we’ve seen a massive shift in the way we work.</p>
<p>Thousands of Australians have abandoned the traditional 40-hour work week to work fewer hours or take on ad-hoc work, such as driving for Uber or doing odd jobs on Airtasker. </p>
<p>But the way we measure the labour market has not kept up. We still rely on the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ labour force survey, a survey from the 1960s conducted according to international conventions that is no longer appropriate for today’s labour market.</p>
<p>Today’s economy – one of independent contractors, ad-hoc work, irregular and flexible hours – needs a new form of measurement. </p>
<h2>How the government measures the workforce</h2>
<p>Every month the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) surveys about 0.32% of the civilian population aged over 15 years about their employment status.</p>
<p>In short, you’re counted as employed if you completed at least one hour of paid work in the week before the survey.</p>
<p>But this doesn’t sound quite right. Clearly, one hour of paid work per week doesn’t fit most people’s idea of employment.</p>
<p>In fact, over one million workers are counted as “underemployed”, meaning they would work more hours if they could. This raises the question of whether these people should really be considered “employed”. The answer depends on what policy question you are trying to address.</p>
<h2>Is our unemployment rate right?</h2>
<p>Let’s get right into how our unemployment rate is calculated.</p>
<p>If respondents haven’t done any paid work in the last week, they are asked two further questions – first, have they actively sought work in the last four weeks, and second, are they currently available to start work? They are only considered unemployed if they answer yes to both of these questions. Otherwise, they’re not counted as part of the labour force. </p>
<p>This means full-time homemakers, carers, the ill and non-working retirees aren’t considered unemployed.</p>
<p>The labour force is the sum of the employed and the unemployed. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labour force who are unemployed. </p>
<p>Lastly, the participation rate is the percentage of the population aged 15 and older who are in the labour force. According to the latest ABS trend estimates, the participation rate stood at 64.5% in November, no change from October.</p>
<p>The participation rate has been consistently trending upwards over time for women and falling for men. This does not mean women are increasingly doing more work but that over time they have switched from unpaid to paid work. One of the main reasons for falling participation among men is that unskilled manual jobs for older men have been declining over several decades and many men have been reclassified as unemployed, disabled or retired. </p>
<h2>More issues with the survey</h2>
<p>The Labour Force Survey only provides a measure of employment and not the number of jobs. For example, a person might work 20 hours per week at a supermarket and 10 hours per week as an Uber driver. Employment is always classified according to the “main job”, so the ABS deems them as one person employed part-time (working fewer than 35 hours) in the retail industry. </p>
<p>If that person worked five more hours as an Uber driver the next week, they would be classified as full-time (35 hours) but the supermarket job would still determine the industry in which they are employed.</p>
<p>The crucial problem here is that there are two jobs being done, but the ABS employment estimate only counts one. So be wary of commentators and politicians making statements like “the economy gained/lost 10,000 jobs last month”! What jobs are they measuring?</p>
<p>The labour force survey also fails to make distinctions between different types of workers. About two million Australians work as independent contractors like construction workers or other business operators such as hairdressers working from home. However, in the figures they are not distinguished from regular employees.</p>
<p>Whereas it might be relatively easy for an employee to know if they did any paid work in the week before the survey, it might not be so obvious for a non-employee. For instance, an author might work 50 hours on their book one week and three hours the next. Most of their work is basic research rather than writing. They receive a royalty payment twice a year. How would they answer the question of whether they did any paid work in the last week?</p>
<p>For non-employees the question of whether they are prepared to start work and have been actively looking for work can also be complex. Someone doing consultancy work might not actively look for work because clients seek them out instead.</p>
<h2>We need something new</h2>
<p>The ABS has tried tackling some of these issues by conducting some different surveys, including the Characteristics of Employment Surveywhich presents information on all employed persons according to their status of employment. However, the framework classifies jobholders by their main job. That is, only the job in which they usually worked the most hours. This doesn’t capture many of the issues of concern in, say, the “sharing” or “gig” economy </p>
<p>The ABS has also attempted to compare the number of filled jobs to the amount of employed people, using estimates in the labour force survey. This can reveal interesting information about the labour market. For instance, in February 2013 there were 11,628,300 employed people in Australia, but an estimated 12,287,200 filled jobs. That is, there were 658,900 more filled jobs than there were employed people. </p>
<p>But even then, the estimates still use the conventional definition of a job. </p>
<p>The ABS is still working on an Australian Labour Market Account, based on International Labor Organisation (ILO) methodology, which may address some of the issues discussed here. But this will still be based on traditional definitions of jobs, employment, and unemployment.</p>
<p>Our conventional employment measures are no longer equipped to inform us about important aspects of our labour force and a reliance on them could lead to inappropriate policy. We need labour force numbers than can capture the nuances of a modern economy.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name">Phil Lewis is p</span>rofessor of economics, University of Canberra and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/phil-lewis-8714" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Finding new ways to measure the Australian labour force

<html><body>
<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/68802/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Over the last few years, we’ve seen a massive shift in the way we work.</p>
<p>Thousands of Australians have abandoned the traditional 40-hour work week to work fewer hours or take on ad-hoc work, such as driving for Uber or doing odd jobs on Airtasker. </p>
<p>But the way we measure the labour market has not kept up. We still rely on the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ labour force survey, a survey from the 1960s conducted according to international conventions that is no longer appropriate for today’s labour market.</p>
<p>Today’s economy – one of independent contractors, ad-hoc work, irregular and flexible hours – needs a new form of measurement. </p>
<h2>How the government measures the workforce</h2>
<p>Every month the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) surveys about 0.32% of the civilian population aged over 15 years about their employment status.</p>
<p>In short, you’re counted as employed if you completed at least one hour of paid work in the week before the survey.</p>
<p>But this doesn’t sound quite right. Clearly, one hour of paid work per week doesn’t fit most people’s idea of employment.</p>
<p>In fact, over one million workers are counted as “underemployed”, meaning they would work more hours if they could. This raises the question of whether these people should really be considered “employed”. The answer depends on what policy question you are trying to address.</p>
<h2>Is our unemployment rate right?</h2>
<p>Let’s get right into how our unemployment rate is calculated.</p>
<p>If respondents haven’t done any paid work in the last week, they are asked two further questions – first, have they actively sought work in the last four weeks, and second, are they currently available to start work? They are only considered unemployed if they answer yes to both of these questions. Otherwise, they’re not counted as part of the labour force. </p>
<p>This means full-time homemakers, carers, the ill and non-working retirees aren’t considered unemployed.</p>
<p>The labour force is the sum of the employed and the unemployed. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labour force who are unemployed. </p>
<p>Lastly, the participation rate is the percentage of the population aged 15 and older who are in the labour force. According to the latest ABS trend estimates, the participation rate stood at 64.5% in November, no change from October.</p>
<p>The participation rate has been consistently trending upwards over time for women and falling for men. This does not mean women are increasingly doing more work but that over time they have switched from unpaid to paid work. One of the main reasons for falling participation among men is that unskilled manual jobs for older men have been declining over several decades and many men have been reclassified as unemployed, disabled or retired. </p>
<h2>More issues with the survey</h2>
<p>The Labour Force Survey only provides a measure of employment and not the number of jobs. For example, a person might work 20 hours per week at a supermarket and 10 hours per week as an Uber driver. Employment is always classified according to the “main job”, so the ABS deems them as one person employed part-time (working fewer than 35 hours) in the retail industry. </p>
<p>If that person worked five more hours as an Uber driver the next week, they would be classified as full-time (35 hours) but the supermarket job would still determine the industry in which they are employed.</p>
<p>The crucial problem here is that there are two jobs being done, but the ABS employment estimate only counts one. So be wary of commentators and politicians making statements like “the economy gained/lost 10,000 jobs last month”! What jobs are they measuring?</p>
<p>The labour force survey also fails to make distinctions between different types of workers. About two million Australians work as independent contractors like construction workers or other business operators such as hairdressers working from home. However, in the figures they are not distinguished from regular employees.</p>
<p>Whereas it might be relatively easy for an employee to know if they did any paid work in the week before the survey, it might not be so obvious for a non-employee. For instance, an author might work 50 hours on their book one week and three hours the next. Most of their work is basic research rather than writing. They receive a royalty payment twice a year. How would they answer the question of whether they did any paid work in the last week?</p>
<p>For non-employees the question of whether they are prepared to start work and have been actively looking for work can also be complex. Someone doing consultancy work might not actively look for work because clients seek them out instead.</p>
<h2>We need something new</h2>
<p>The ABS has tried tackling some of these issues by conducting some different surveys, including the Characteristics of Employment Surveywhich presents information on all employed persons according to their status of employment. However, the framework classifies jobholders by their main job. That is, only the job in which they usually worked the most hours. This doesn’t capture many of the issues of concern in, say, the “sharing” or “gig” economy </p>
<p>The ABS has also attempted to compare the number of filled jobs to the amount of employed people, using estimates in the labour force survey. This can reveal interesting information about the labour market. For instance, in February 2013 there were 11,628,300 employed people in Australia, but an estimated 12,287,200 filled jobs. That is, there were 658,900 more filled jobs than there were employed people. </p>
<p>But even then, the estimates still use the conventional definition of a job. </p>
<p>The ABS is still working on an Australian Labour Market Account, based on International Labor Organisation (ILO) methodology, which may address some of the issues discussed here. But this will still be based on traditional definitions of jobs, employment, and unemployment.</p>
<p>Our conventional employment measures are no longer equipped to inform us about important aspects of our labour force and a reliance on them could lead to inappropriate policy. We need labour force numbers than can capture the nuances of a modern economy.</p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name">Phil Lewis is p</span>rofessor of economics, University of Canberra and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/phil-lewis-8714" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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mick.cee-iDmgDDAmu8

We need to find new ways to measure the Australian labour force

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Today's jobs numbers were weaker than expected, with broadly flat jobs in February (market had +14k).</p>
<p>However, at the same time, the unemployment rate outperformed by falling to 5.8 percent (market had 6.0 percent), due to an unexpected sharp decline in the participation rate. Measurement issues have pervaded this survey making it difficult to get a clear reading. This is the third consecutive month of weak jobs growth, but this partly reflects pay-back for very strong numbers late last year.</p>
<p>Cutting through the noise, the trend measures show the unemployment rate is still below its peak, suggesting gradual labour market improvement. However, unemployment is still well above its full employment level, which is likely to continue to weigh on wages growth and domestic inflation, leaving the RBA with scope to cut further.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/17/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-17%20at%202.58.35%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/17/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-17%20at%202.58.35%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p><br> <br>Facts<br> <br>Employment was broadly flat (up by just 300 jobs) in February (market expected +13.5k, HSBC expected +10k). Over the past six months, employment growth has averaged +20k a month. Annual employment growth has eased to 2.1 percent, down from a peak of 2.9 percent in November.<br> <br>The participation rate fell by 0.3ppts to 64.9 percent, the lowest rate since June 2015.<br> <br>Because of the drop in participation, the unemployment rate fell from 6.0 percent to 5.8 percent (the market and HSBC expected 6.0 percent).<br> <br>- The employment-to-population ratio fell from 61.2 percent to 61.1 percent, the lowest level since October 2015.<br> <br>Total hours worked fell by 0.1 percent m-o-m in seasonally-adjusted terms, and were up 2.2 percent y-o-y. Trend growth in hours worked slowed from 2.6 percent to 2.4 percent y-o-y.<br> <br>Implications<br> <br>Australia's official labour force survey is still suffering from measurement issues that make it complicated to interpret the results. Jobs were broadly flat in February, following falls in the previous two months, but this was after very strong growth in employment in October and November last year. A large part of the recent weakness appears to be 'payback' for the over-stated strength last year. However, it is not easy to separate the signal from the noise.<br> <br>One way to do this is to look at the trend measures within the official survey. These are showing gradual improvement in the labour market. The trend measure of the unemployment rate is at 5.8 percent, down from a peak of 6.3 percent in late 2014.</p>
<p>Another way to do this is to look at the collection of other indicators of the labour market, including job advertisements, job vacancies and hiring intentions in the business surveys. These are showing a more modest improvement in the labour market than is implied by the official numbers (see Figure 4 below).<br> <br>The other key issue is that although the range of indicators suggests that there has been a trend improvement in the labour market, the pick-up has not been enough to absorb sufficient spare capacity to put upward pressure on wages growth and domestic inflation.</p>
<p>Combine this with underlying inflation that is already at the bottom edge of the target band, weak global inflation and a climbing AUD, and it is likely that inflation will remain low. We expect underlying inflation to fall below the bottom edge of the RBA's 2-3 percent target band in H1 2016. Our central case has the RBA easing by a further 25bps around the middle of this year.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/17/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-17%20at%203.00.14%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/17/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-17%20at%203.00.14%20PM.png" alt="" width="1256" height="562"></p>
<p><em>Paul Bloxham is chief economist (ANZ) for HSBC . Daniel Smith is economist. They can be contacted <a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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