<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/jwland-development">JWLand</a>’s De Burgh, the final residential release within the Northbourne Village precinct in Lyneham, is nearing completion just as the Federal Government’s Home Guarantee Scheme prepares for its most significant expansion to date.&nbsp;</p>

<p>From October 2025, the scheme will allow first home buyers to enter the market with just a five per cent deposit and no lenders mortgage insurance (LMI), removing some of the most common barriers to ownership.</p>

<p>With <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/de-burgh-at-northbourne-village-40-de-burgh-street-lyneham-act-2602">De Burgh</a> on track for residents to move in by late spring 2025, the timing creates a strong opportunity for first home buyers seeking brand-new apartments in Canberra’s sought-after Inner North.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=139989 project_image_fid=212888]</p>

<p>The project delivers 350 residences across two buildings, with layouts ranging from compact studios through to one, two, and three-bedroom apartments.</p>

<p>JWLand has tailored the development for long-term liveability, integrating natural light, privacy and outdoor space into each home. Ground-floor residences feature private courtyards, while upper levels benefit from generous balconies.</p>

<p>Kitchens are fitted with Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, and all apartments include ducted reverse-cycle air conditioning with smartphone app control for lighting and climate.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Shared resident facilities include a rooftop garden, gym, lounge and parcel lockers, alongside landscaped green space within the precinct.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=139989 project_image_fid=267376]</p>

<p>For buyers, the expanded Home Guarantee Scheme removes income caps and introduces unlimited places, making it more accessible than ever. With most De Burgh apartments priced under $1 million, they fall well within the updated eligibility thresholds.</p>

<p>The policy changes provide first home buyers with greater certainty and a smoother path to finance. Combined with the quality and location of De Burgh, the expanded scheme is expected to draw a new wave of buyers to Canberra’s Inner North.</p>

<p>Residents will benefit from the project’s central setting, just 600 metres from the light rail and three kilometres from Canberra’s CBD. The precinct is bordered by the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/lyneham-act-2602">Lyneham</a> wetlands and sits within easy reach of cafes, restaurants, schools and the ANU.</p>

<p>With completion scheduled for late 2025, De Burgh is set to be among the first major apartment projects to meet the expanded scheme head-on, offering first-time buyers a realistic pathway to ownership in one of Canberra’s most connected neighbourhoods.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=139989]</p>


Joel Robinson

JWLand’s De Burgh aligns with expanded Homebuyer Scheme, opening doors for first home buyers in Canberra’s Inner North

<p>A subtropical pair of residential towers are in planning for a key South Brisbane site neighbouring the iconic Expo ’88 Skyneedle, with new documents revealing a vertically layered vision designed to respond to the precinct’s evolving high-density character.</p>

<p>The proposal has been lodged by&nbsp;Darveniza Group, which is also is behind the 400-apartment Station Quarter precinct in Alderley.</p>

<p>Darveniza Group, led by Jane Darveniza, the Brisbane-based investor and Queensland rich-lister and widow of the late property magnate Bojan Darveniza, is seeking approval for a mixed-use project encompassing 204 apartments, ground-level retail, food and drink tenancies, and office space across two architecturally integrated towers at 37–39 Manning Street.</p>

<p>Occupying an 1,822 sqm site, the proposed towers would rise above a sculptural podium base, with a recessed landscaped centre, rooftop communal areas, and a total of 220 car parks and 256 bicycle bays. The apartment mix spans one- to five-bedroom dwellings, with a design emphasis on generous balconies, cross-ventilation, and climate-responsive materials.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Twin towers proposed for Manning Street site beside Skyneedle" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="42c1f501-2afd-440b-af49-67c257123ea7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Manning%20podium.png?VersionId=KFlksfWzmDRD.VIYxd_1q3VAel.nN3TH" /></p>

<p>“The development is conceived as two slender twin buildings that meet at a lushly landscaped central recess,” the Finegrain design report states. “The façade is highly articulated with the plan form stepping back and forth to reduce visual bulk and maximise internal occupants’ access to natural light and air”.</p>

<p>A hallmark of the proposal is its integration of greenery, both visually and functionally. Around 77 per cent of the site’s green plot ratio is delivered through vertical planting spines, a green podium wall, and rooftop amenity. Ground-level deep planting and landscaped communal zones aim to create a shaded, walkable interface along Manning Street.</p>

<p>“The stepped plan form introduces variation in balcony setbacks and enclosed apartment areas, enriching both the façade expression and the resident experience,” the design team notes. “At ground and podium levels, this stepping also enhances permeability, maximising pedestrian view lines to the neighbouring Skyneedle and reinforcing a strong sense of local identity”.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Twin towers proposed for Manning Street site beside Skyneedle" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b3f26dfc-6b93-465c-9ffb-0a2530372a23" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Manning%20site.png?VersionId=JflvKdqDxcaHTFbb9HL5TwoiRgeQ2LqA" /></p>

<p>The site directly adjoins the heritage-listed Skyneedle at 35 Manning Street, an enduring legacy of World Expo ’88. The accompanying heritage impact report by Pendergast Architects contends that the proposal has been carefully conceived to protect the cultural significance and landmark visibility of the structure.</p>

<p>“The design provides setbacks, tower separation and podium articulation to maintain the visibility and landmark role of the adjoining Skyneedle,” the report states. “The significance of the Skyneedle lies principally in its landmark visibility and cultural symbolism, rather than in detailed fabric or architectural setting”.</p>

<p>The proposal sits within the Kurilpa Sustainable Growth Precinct, under Brisbane’s TLPI 02/2023, where revised planning controls support high-density, mixed-use development integrated with subtropical design and increased public realm contributions.</p>

<p>Finegrain’s design reflects this intent, drawing cues from the site's adjacency to Musgrave Park, the subtropical landscape of South Brisbane, and cultural landmarks such as QPAC and South Bank.</p>


Twin green towers proposed for Manning Street, South Brisbane site beside Skyneedle

<p>A first-of-its-kind culinary precinct is coming to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a>, inspired by global street-food flavours and best-in-class restaurants and entertainment.</p>

<p>Deicorp’s emerging mid-city precinct, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/melrose-central-melrose-park-33-hope-street-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Central</a>, will become the go-to precinct within the wider Melrose Park community, and at its heart, a first-of-its-kind culinary precinct that brings the buzz of Asia’s most iconic food streets to life.</p>

<p>Spanning more than 4,700 sqm, Melrose Central street food precinct is inspired by the energy and vibrant flavours of street-food neighbourhoods from Hong Kong and Tokyo to Seoul and Singapore.</p>

<p>This new destination will be over three times the size of existing offerings like Burwood Chinatown or Westfield Chatswood’s Hawker Lane, positioning Melrose Central as a must-visit dining hub for all of Sydney.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134220 project_image_fid=289878]</p>

<p>Designed by Anthony Ho of Basalt Studio, this street food concept blurs the lines between culinary theatre, art, and entertainment, offering an immersive experience. Neon-lit laneways thread between open kitchens and live grill stations, while murals, interactive displays, and light installations will bring the precinct to life, trading until late, a first for the area.</p>

<p>“We’ve imagined our street food concept as a graduated evolution of everything people love about Burwood Chinatown, East Village and Regent Place, elevated by the immersive artistry creating a city-style dining offer,” said Bilinda Turner, Head of Retail at Deicorp.</p>

<p>“By curating the very best tenants from across Australia, we’re creating a fit-for-purpose town centre for 2025 and beyond. It’s something that people truly haven’t seen before."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134220 project_image_fid=352610]</p>

<p>Melrose Central is far more than a food precinct. Spanning 30,000 sqm across four levels, the shopping centre will be home to approximately 100 retailers, providing a total lifestyle offering from morning until late evening.</p>

<p>Fresh food offerings span a brand new Coles Supermarket, Local Grocer, Korean Supermarket, Bakery and boutique fresh food, as well as a Dan Murphy's, while health needs are covered from a pharmacy, medical centre and allied health. Fitness and wellbeing take centre stage from a dedicated wellbeing hub that includes pilates, recovery, Infrared saunas and a gym, to name a few.</p>

<p>Variety stores will feature throughout, as well as personal care offerings from nail salons to hairdressers, as well as a dedicated early-learning centre on level 1.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134220 project_image_fid=289888]</p>

<p>Situated above the retail precinct will be 495 Turner Studio-designed apartments that open onto 6,000 sqm of lush podium gardens and rooftop terraces.</p>

<p>Located just six kilometres east of Parramatta’s CBD and 15km from Sydney CBD, Melrose Central forms the retail and lifestyle heart of Melrose Park, an urban-renewal precinct that is set to deliver more than 11,000 homes, 22,000 new residents, and 50,000 sqm of park and open space.</p>

<p>A dedicated stop on Parramatta Light Rail Stage 2 will arrive at the precinct’s Hope Street entrance, and the forthcoming Parramatta Gateway Bridge will link directly to Sydney Olympic Park and Wentworth Point.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Supported by a 10-minute drive, this growing catchment of 200,000 people, which is projected to grow to 279,000 by 2026, and an average household income above the Greater Sydney average, Melrose Central embodies Deicorp’s vision for transport-oriented, community-focused placemaking.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Melrose Central street food precinct and the wider Melrose Central retail town centre are both slated to open in mid-2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134220]</p>


Melrose Central: First-of-its-kind culinary precinct coming to Sydney’s West

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a> has unveiled the fifth and final stage of its $1 billion Norwest community, The Orchards.</p>

<p>The final stage, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/zeste-at-the-orchards-norwest-104-fairway-drive-norwest-nsw-2153">Zeste</a>, will deliver 209 apartments across two distinctive buildings, Essence and Eden. The 135 apartments in Essence will be the first to be released to the market, which will bring to an end the decade-long vision to create a&nbsp;neighbourhood defined by design excellence, sustainability, and community engagement.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150510 project_image_fid=351878]</p>

<p>David Lee, Sales Manager at Sekisui House Australia said, Zeste's oversized living spaces and diverse apartment mix, which includes the introduction of&nbsp;Breezeway Sky Homes for the first time, deliver a unique lifestyle offering.</p>

<p>Early purchasers will benefit from exclusive VIP pricing as well as the choice of one premium upgrade, which Lee says is a "thank you" for their commitment to the project.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150510 project_image_fid=351876]</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>, Zeste embodies Sekisui House’s global design philosophy of creating harmony between people, homes and nature. Principal Ben Pomroy explained that Zeste is about living within the landscape.</p>

<p>“With two large courtyards, the lagoon pool precinct for the wider community and a central courtyard with pavilion exclusively for Zeste residents, the architecture frames an experience of living in a park," Pomroy said.</p>

<p>“Over 50 per cent of the site is landscaped, ensuring a deep connection to nature at every stage of daily life. The buildings are designed as a collection of smaller, finer-grain forms, with over 85% of apartments enjoying dual aspects.</p>

<p>“The focus on natural ventilation, generous layouts and communal interaction creates a residential environment that is both sustainable and socially connected.”</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150510 project_image_fid=351886]</p>

<p>Natalie Shalala, a member of Rothelowman’s interiors team said they reimagined the former site’s Orchard homestead with a contemporary twist. &nbsp;</p>

<p>“The design draws on the nostalgia of the past orchard – timber floors, the warmth of a fireplace, the rituals of the homestead and reinvents them for modern apartment living,"&nbsp;Shalala said.</p>

<p>“We have created two tonal palettes, one with pale honey undertones and another with a soft blush inspired by nectar. A highlight feature is the cathedral glass light box, a bespoke design element that re-interprets the classic lantern. It is both beautiful and functional, tying kitchen and bathroom spaces together in a way that feels entirely unique."</p>

<p>Shalala said the&nbsp;day-to-day liveability has been carefully considered, with abundant storage solutions, butler’s pantries, bike storage and joinery designed to simplify routines and enhance comfort.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150510 project_image_fid=352090]</p>

<p>Apartments in Zeste start from $715,000 for one-bedrooms and extend through to expansive three-bedroom Sky Homes priced from $2.25 million. Floorplans range from 59 sqm to 144sqm.</p>

<p>The mix in Essence comprises 41 one-bedroom, seven one-bedroom + Max space, 39 two-bedroom, 40 two-bedroom Breezeway Sky Homes (24 of which include additional Max spaces), and eight three-bedroom residences.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Max spaces are integrated into select residences, offering a flexible room that can be tailored to individual needs, ideal as a home office, children’s play area, or additional storage.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150510 project_image_fid=351881]</p>

<p>Zeste continues Sekisui House Australia’s partnership with Altogether Group, providing sustainable water, power and data services to residents. Passive design strategies include cross-ventilation, deep landscaping and water features that encourage evaporative cooling, aligning with The Orchards long-term environmental goals.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Construction is set to commence on the Zeste buildings in early 2026, with completion anticipated in late 2027 to early 2028.&nbsp;</p>

<p>More than 850 apartments have been sold across the masterplan, contributing to The Orchards community of 1,300 apartments when complete.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150510]</p>


Sekisui House Australia launches Zeste, the final stage of its $1 billion Norwest masterplan

<p>A significant addition to the Bella Vista Station Precinct is in the pipeline, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/landen-property">Landen</a> formally lodging a State Significant Development Application for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/40-memorial-avenue-bella-vista-40-memorial-avenue-nsw-2153">new apartment community on Memorial Avenue</a>.</p>

<p>Positioned beside the Elizabeth Macarthur Creek corridor, the project is among the first major transit-oriented residential proposals within the Metro precinct.</p>

<p>The masterplan, designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/turner-studio">Turner Architects</a>,&nbsp;outlines a four-stage delivery, comprising four buildings between four and fifteen storeys, and includes a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, alongside a limited selection of four-bedroom penthouses and terraces.</p>

<p>The project places a strong emphasis on housing diversity and liveability, with apartment sizes ranging from 50 to 180 sqm. The first stage will deliver 213 dwellings, followed by 231 in the second stage. Construction is expected to commence in 2026, pending approvals.</p>

<p><img alt="Bella Vista Apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="bb3d84b1-d2df-4e26-915a-31b27faf9b1a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/View02_01-scaled.jpg?VersionId=Gb0AUtZ3VXsLxrqUaw_AwT_vcBwQ_FJu" /></p>

<p>As the first transit-oriented development (TOD) in the precinct, Landen’s Bella Vista community has been designed to align closely with the surrounding Metro infrastructure. The proposal integrates new pedestrian and cycling paths, a new bridge over Elizabeth Macarthur Creek, and direct access to Bella Vista Metro Station.</p>

<p>Lush communal amenities are also central to the design. 'The Grove' and the 'Garden Link' will create landscaped community areas that reflect the area's agricultural heritage and provide direct access to the creekside.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The ‘Garden Patio’ is conceived as a multi-use indoor-outdoor facility offering a gym, study nooks, and communal lounge spaces.&nbsp;Rooftop terraces across the buildings will offer views to the Blue Mountains and Parramatta skyline.</p>

<p><img alt="Bella Vista Apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="778da409-d5cf-4e7d-9ba9-0c36990bf0b4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/landen-bella-property-image.jpg?VersionId=ukPpmVcHF71xRc7U3MUT5rtGwOsntMMz" /></p>

<p>Landen’s Head of Property, Shane Harding, said the proposal highlights the developer’s precinct-scale ambition.</p>

<p>“As the first TOD proposal in Bella Vista, it highlights Landen’s ability to pioneer precinct-scale projects, integrate housing with infrastructure, and deliver outcomes that align with government priorities,” Harding told the Daily Telegraph.</p>

<p>The project arrives at a time of rapid growth in Western Sydney, with Bella Vista alone forecast to more than double in population by 2046. The development’s location, between the Bella Vista and Kellyville Metro stations, positions it as a connected lifestyle hub for families, professionals and downsizers seeking access to transport, schools, and employment centres.</p>

<p>Pending approval, the development is slated for completion in 2028.</p>


Landen plans 444-apartment community in Bella Vista Metro zone

Labour Force

<html><body>
<p><span>Australia's favoured share market index, the ASX 200 ("XJO"), continues to meander along, now miserably hovering below 5,500, having previously once again threatened 6,000.</span></p>
<p><span>It's a monster day ahead for news with the Labour Force figures out at 11.30am.</span></p>
<div id="post-body-5375889496668172470" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>After a somewhat downcast speech from Reserve Bank Governor Stevens yesterday, analysts will be awaiting these latest figures with bated breath.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Before we move on to look at the employment figures in detail, a quick look at why the residential construction boom has plenty of gas left in its tank yet.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">New home finance up</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>The <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5609.0" target="_blank">Housing Finance</a> figures for April showed a moderate increase in the seasonally adjusted number of new dwelling commitments to 2,766 in the month.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While this was an improvement on the March figure, smoothing the data on a 4mMA basis, shows that the trend looks to have passed its peak.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/06/11/HF5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>In terms of the value of loans written for new dwellings, the data recorded a record high of $1.03 billion in April, reflective of the expensive nature of new housing stock in Australia.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Investors both domestically and from offshore pay a hefty premium to buy new, and this has taken rolling annual new dwellings finance its highest ever level at $11.6 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/06/11/HF1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Despite the trend in new dwelling commitments looking decidedly toppy, this overlooks that a sizeable percentage of new dwelling sales are made to foreign investors, particularly in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and elsewhere.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Naturally enough, these offshore sales are not picked up in our domestic housing finance figures.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Most other indicators, including record high building approvals and forecast dwelling starts, point towards an industry which is now at or approaching its full capacity.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Typically skills and materials shortages at this stage in the construction cycle will lead to rapid inflation in the build cost of new dwellings, and there are already some indicators of this dynamic.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In particular, the Reserve Bank's liaison work has noted a shortage of bricklayers and project managers in the residential space, despite the widespread availability of construction workers as the mining investment boom dies its long, slow death.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Construction loans</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unsurprisingly most buyers continue to seek finance to buy established property, although if you look closely, construction finance is rising steadily.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/06/11/HF2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Drilling into this a little further, the rolling annual value of construction loans to owner occupiers appears to have peaked out at a record $22 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, rolling 12 monthly construction finance commitments to investors continue to rise, now up to $9.1 billion of loans written, which is also a record high.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/06/11/HF3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Renovations</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>If there is one genuine bubble in the Australian economy, it is surely in the irrationally exuberant number of renovation TV shows advertised on the television (I've never actually watched one, I should disclose...not my thing).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Alas, outside Sydney, where renovations activity is both robust and rising, nobody seems to be undertaking any renovation projects themselves! </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sure this was only the first month of the quarter, but the contribution to GDP growth from major alterations and additions in the second quarter of the year already looks likely like to be nil.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/06/11/HF6.jpg" alt=""></div>
</div>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<br><span>Meh.</span><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br><div>Some survey indices have lately pointed to a contraction in apartment and attached dwelling construction.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>These indices are surely broken!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Just a few days wandering around the capital cities and major regional centres would tell you as much.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The residential construction boom continues, fuelled largely by sales to offshore buyers, and for this reason, the data on new dwelling commitments domestically doesn't give us the full picture.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The construction loans data charted above - combined with record high building approvals and a strapping number of dwelling starts - imply that the next two years will see a sustained high level of activity in home building.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<em><span>PETE WARGENT</span> is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br><p><em>His book '<a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>' is out now.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Residential construction boom to continue: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>The ABS released its Detailed Labour Force figures for October 2015 which provided further detail on the extraordinary rate of job gains in New South Wales, where employment has grown at an electric pace over the past year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney recorded another strong month of gains and has created +85,000 positions over the year to October. Interestingly after a fairly dismal four years, the rest of the state has also created +51,000 new roles. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of Australia's other major labour markets Melbourne (+78,000) and lately the improving Greater Brisbane region (+43,000) have accounted for the bulk of new positions.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/20/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/20/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>By contrast over the past five years since October 2010 total employment in Adelaide has declined by 5,500.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Unemployment divergence</span></strong><br><br><div>Looking at capital city unemployment rates on a rolling annual basis shows that while unemployment rates are rising in Perth and Adelaide, elsewhere they have been declining.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/20/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/20/A2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Sydney has been the king of employment gains in recent times, and as such recorded an unemployment rate for October of just 4.7 per cent across the Greater Sydney region.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the past year some of the consistently lowest unemployment rates in Australia have been seen in Sydney's Northern Beaches (2.5 per cent), Eastern Suburbs (3.2 per cent), North Sydney &amp; Hornsby (3.7 per cent) and Inner West (4.3 per cent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/20/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/20/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>At the other end of the scale the unemployment rate in Adelaide continues to trend up to well above 7 per cent, with further jobs losses subsequently reported in the month of November in the struggling state of South Australia.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/20/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/11/20/A4.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>After a lift in unemployment as the resources capital expenditure boom passed its peak, Greater Brisbane has seen a pleasing improvement in its local economy.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Employment gains have picked up to a solid pace and the rolling annual unemployment rate has trended down from 6.3 per cent to 5.9 per cent through this calendar year to date.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/11/20/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/11/20/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Mining regions suffer</span></strong><br><em><br></em><em>Commsec</em> put out a usueful reseach note which reported that mining regions - and coal mining regions in particular - have suffered, with jobless rates in the Hunter Valley and Mackay having broadly doubled.<br><br>This in itself comes as no great surprise - I predicted as much here on this blog 14 months ago.<br><br>Other regions with elevated levels of unemployment have included Wide Bay, Logan-Beaudesert, Adelaide North, Townsville, and Cairns.<br><br>The news for regional Australia is far from all bad, however.</div>
<div>
<br>While there is no doubt that many parts of regional Queensland are doing it very tough, there have been improvements in unemployment rates in the Wide Bay region, the Hunter Valley, Newcastle &amp; Lake Macquarie, and Geelong (and possibly several other regions, subject to the vagaries of sampling variability).<br><br>Indeed, after some ugly results early in the year the figures reported for regional unemployment have generally improved of late, so perhaps some of the mining fallout is now in the rear view mirror, as contractors migrate back to their respective capital cities.<br><br>That said, total regional employment growth outside New South Wales (and to some extent Queensland) has been weak, while new roles may also be lower paid than those which they replaced.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

Mining regions struggle: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>As expected, the Reserve Bank Board decided to keep the cash rate unchanged at 0.75%.</p>
<p>It is noteworthy that the Board has also not adjusted its growth forecasts for 2020 and 2021 holding them at 2.75% and 3% respectively. The discussion around the two recent shocks to growth – bushfires and coronavirus – emphasises the likely temporary impact of both although the statement does appropriately point out that “it is too early to determine how long lasting the impact [of the coronavirus] will be”.</p>
<p>Further emphasising this tentative approach to coronavirus developments, the description around the world economy has changed: “global growth is expected to be a little stronger this year and next than it was last year.” That compares to the December statement which only referred to: “the outlook for the global economy remains reasonable” – a surprising modest lift in confidence around the world economy given the current recent market developments.</p>
<p>On the other hand the fall in the unemployment rate since the last Board meeting, from 5.3% to 5.1% has been taken on board and the new forecast for the unemployment rate in 2020 appears to be 5.1% down from 5.25% at the December Board meeting. For 2021 the expectation that the unemployment rate will fall slightly below 5% is maintained.</p>
<p>It is of some interest that the statement does not repeat the description “gentle turning point” although the arguments pointing to an improving growth outlook – the low level of interest rates; tax refunds; ongoing spending on infrastructure; a brighter outlook for resources – is now supplemented by a more confident outlook for the residential construction cycle where the statement points to an expected recovery later this year.</p>
<p>It is important that the sentiment in the December statement that “the Australian economy can sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment” has been repeated. This emphasises the desirability, from the Board’s perspective, of further falls in the unemployment rate.</p>
<p>The recent weakness in the Australian dollar is recognised with the AUD being described as “around its lowest level over recent times”. That compares with the previous description of “at the lower end of its range in recent times”. There may be some inconsistency in this observation given that if, as the growth forecasts imply, the economy bounces back from the short term shocks, a recovery in the AUD is almost certainly going to be an outcome.</p>
<p>In the final paragraph, the statement repeats the sentiment of the December statement emphasising: 1) the long and variable lags in the transmission of monetary policy; and 2) the Board is prepared to ease policy further if needed. The third point used in December, that “[the Board] continues to monitor developments, including in the labour market” has been modified to “The Board will continue to monitor developments carefully, including in the labour market”. Arguably this final difference can be interpreted as the Board being more uncertain about future developments and therefore wanting to emphasise its strong duty of care.</p>
<p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p>
<p>We have been surprised that the Board has retained its growth forecast for 2020 at 2.75% (around trend) given the weaker momentum which was apparent from the September quarter national accounts and developing questions around the global economy. It is also somewhat brave, given a range of leading indicators around the labour market, to assume that the recent surprise fall in the unemployment rate over the last two months, from 5.3% to 5.1%, will be sustained. Westpac’s forecast is for the unemployment rate to drift upwards over the first half of 2020.</p>
<p>The uncertainty around the coronavirus poses substantial risks to economic forecasts but certainly the impact of the virus over the course of the first quarter both globally and domestically has to be quite damaging. It seems unlikely that subsequent stimulus policies will be able to fully offset the short term damage done to confidence and activity implying a realistic downward revision to growth forecasts, both globally and domestically.</p>
<p>Westpac continues to expect that a combination of a more moderate growth outlook and an unexpected (by the RBA) deterioration in the labour market will require a further policy response. Our forecast is that the next rate cut will occur in April followed by a further cut in August.</p>
<p><strong>BILL EVANS </strong><em>is the Chief Economist at Westpac</em></p>
</body></html>

bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

RBA remain optimistic but cash rate cuts ahead

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>The July Labour Force Survey was a robust update on employment (+41.1k) but with participation hitting a new record high at the same time, unemployment remained sticky at 5.2%. Given this strength in participation, even if employment growth continued to outperform expectations from here, it is hard to see unemployment getting down to 5% any time soon, let alone getting down to the RBA’s natural rate of 4.5%.</p>
<p>This matters for wages, even more so given that the underemployment rate (those who are working who desire and are able to work more hours) didn’t improve as much as unemployment did through 2018. Underemployment was trending higher earlier this year compared to unemployment until the surprise drop in June. But in July, underemployment bumped higher to 8.4%, still better than 8.6% in May but this lift did lock in a trend drift higher.</p>
<p>Given rising participation and rising underemployment, we were not surprised to see another soft wages update from the June quarter Wage Price Index (WPI). In the June quarter the WPI lifted 0.6% vs market expectations for a 0.5% rise and up slightly from the 0.5% rise in the March quarter. This held the annual rate flat at 2.3%yr which is a modest lift from the low of 1.9% in 2017 but can hardly be described as a breakneck pace.</p>
<p>The June quarter wage print was 0.61% at two decimal places with a 0.54% rise in private sector wage rates and a very solid 0.82% rise in public sector wages, the largest quarterly rise in public sector wages since Q1 2014. But this followed the smallest quarterly rise in public sector wages since March 2000 of 0.45% in the March quarter, highlighting greater than normal volatility in this series.</p>
<p>The ABS noted that in the June survey, the most significant contribution to wage growth in the public sector component came from health care and social assistance, with Victoria reporting a number of large increases as employees there had their pay adjusted to ensure wage parity with other states.</p>
<p>Victorian public sector wages grew 1.5%, there was a more average rise in Queensland of 0.5% while NSW reported a below average increase of 0.2%. In the year to June, public sector wages have been growing at 2.6%yr.</p>
<p>Contrast the lift in public wages against the flattening pace in private sector wages. Private sector wages printed a rise of 0.54% in each of the last two quarters seeing the annual pace ease back to 2.3%yr from 2.4%yr in March which was the fastest pace since December 2014.</p>
<p>Overall, we have to admit the pace of growth in private sector wages has been very disappointing. We have found that private sector wages have a good relationship with underutilisation (unemployment plus underutilisation) with a lag of around two quarters.</p>
<p>Which then leads to an ongoing conundrum: why are wages growing so slowly in NSW, the state that previously had underutilsation that was well below the national average (thus the tightest labour market) since the second half of 2015?</p>
<p>Contrast this with WA, the state that has had the highest rate of underutilisation and is now experiencing well below average wage outcomes. Yet wages in the state of Victoria have been more responsive to changes in labour market conditions.</p>
<p>The recent modest acceleration in the pace of wages growth in Victoria to 2.9% maps nicely against the decline in underutilisation from late 2016 to early 2018. Since the second half of 2018 underutilisation has started to drift higher again suggesting the acceleration in wage inflation should moderate in Victoria (excluding any effect from public sector wage equalisation) as we move through 2019.</p>
<p>It is a puzzle as to why NSW wages have underperformed the tightness in labour market conditions, so we can't be confident how far labour market tightness in Victoria will lift wages. We also have to take care when considering how much of the Victorian pressure on wages will be passed onto other states.</p>
<p><em>Read the full report: <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/August/er20190819BullLabourForce.pdf" target="_blank">'Australian July Labour Force' (PDF 179kb)</a></em></p>
<p><em><strong>JUSTIN SMIRK</strong> is ‎a senior economist for Westpac </em></p>
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Employment remains robust but unemployment and wages are unmoved: Justin Smirk

<html><body>
<p><strong>EXPERT OBSERVATION</strong></p>
<p>A robust update but participation hit a new record high at the same time. So while the employment growth continues to outperform expectations the unemployment rate is very sticky around 5.2%.  As such, it is hard to see unemployment getting below 5% any time soon, let alone getting down the RBA’s natural rate of 4.5%.</p>
<p>Westpac is forecasting the unemployment rate to rise from here on the back of a soft patch in employment.</p>
<p>In the past year the largest share of employment gains have been for full-time females, male full-time employment has grown slower than total employment, suggesting employment gains remain focused in the services industries that are rich in female employment.</p>
<p>This update gives us comfort that the RBA will opt to wait-and-see at the September Board meeting and leave the cash rate unchanged.</p>
<p>The July Labour Force Survey reported a 41.1k gain in employment. As we head into the second half of the year, employment remains quite robust with a three month average gain of 28k in July, unchanged from June and slightly down from 35k in May.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/westpac%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
<p> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/westpac%201.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>The May survey reported a strong +45.2k gain in employment with participation surging to a new record high of 66.1%, boosting the labour force and therefore holding unemployment flat at 5.2% despite the strong gain in employment. </span></p>
<p><span>Since then, while the month to month employment gains have been volatile, the trend remains robust and unemployment has been flat at 5.2%.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/westpac%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
<p><span><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/westpac%202.jpg" alt=""> </span></p>
<p><span><span>In the year to July, employment has grown 333k or 2.6%. The pace of employment growth has eased back from 2.9%yr in May but it is still stronger than the 2.2%yr at the end of 2018, while the six month annualised pace has was flat at 2.4%yr. </span></span></p>
<p><span><span>Our Jobs Index suggests employment should be growing around 2.4%yr currently before slowing to 2.1%yr through Q4.</span></span></p>
<p><span><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/westpac%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: </span></p>
<p> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/westpac%203.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>We think it is worth noting that June employment was revised to –2.3k from +0.5k with June now recording the first negative print on employment in three years. </p>
<p>In July, unemployment was flat at 5.2% (5.23% at two decimal places - it was 5.24% in June) with participation rising to a new record high of 66.1% (66.06% at two decimal places from 65.96% in June) the labour force grew a very solid 41.9k.</p>
<p>We had expected that a soft employment print would have been associated with a moderation in participation so we are not surprised that a robust employment gain is matched by a lift in participation.</p>
<p>Today’s update is further confirmation of a robust upward trend in participation, but there was a shift on which state is in the driving seat.</p>
<p>NSW hit a record high of participation of 66.2% in May and has since eased back a bit as has Victoria, which leaves Qld supporting the more recent gains in participation.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/westpac%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:</p>
<p> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/westpac%204.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>In June we were surprised by the drop in underemployment (those employed who are willing and able to work more hours) which fell 0.4ppts to 8.2%. </span></p>
<p><span>Underemployment did not improve as much as unemployment through 2018 and had recently been trending higher compared to the unemployment rate. But in July, underemployment bumped back up to 8.4%, still down on the 8.6% in May but it did help to lock in a stronger trend.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/westpac%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: </p>
<p><span> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/westpac%205.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p>Underemployment lifted in both NSW and Victoria (from 7.5% to 7.9% and 7.9% to 8.5% respectively) while it fell in Queensland and WA (from 8.6% to 8.5% and 9.6% to 9.4% respectively).</p>
<p>We note how high underemployment is in Victoria compared to unemployment — unemployment is well below the national average (4.8% vs. 5.2% nationally) whereas the underemployment rate of 8.5% is higher than the national average of 8.2%.</p>
<p>In the last year to July, the gains in employment have mostly been full-time (255.6k/3.0%yr) and with females gaining slightly more than males (153.8k/4.9%yr for females, 101.8k/1.9%yr for males).</p>
<p>The mix is interesting as female full-time employment has lifted 153.8k (4.9%yr) in the year while male fulltime rose 101.8k (1.9%yr).</p>
<p>In contrast male part-time employment has lifted 59.2k in the year (4.8%) while female part-time grew just 17.8k (0.6%yr).</p>
<p>It does appear that employment gains continued to be focused in the services sectors that are rich in female full-time employment positions.  </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/westpac%206.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: </p>
<p> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/westpac%206.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Employment growth has held together and has been quite robust so far in 2019 with the July update suggesting the pace of growth may be picking up — somewhat unexpectedly given the softening leading indicators.</p>
<p>Unemployment is flat around 5.2% but underemployment is drifting higher as the employment to population ratio has held around 62.5% to 62.6% since April highlighting that the gains in employment have only been pacing the gains in working age population.</p>
<p>In the year to July, employment has grown 161.4/4.0%yr in NSW compared to 97.8k/3.0%yr gain in Victoria. Employment grew more modestly in Queensland (57.8k/2.3%yr) and just 6.9k/0.8%yr in SA and slight better in WA with 19.5k/1.5%yr in WA.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/8/15/westpac%207.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: </p>
<p> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/8/15/westpac%207.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Since December the unemployment rate has risen 0.1ppt in NSW to 4.4% (the national low), +0.6ppt in Victoria to 4.8% with a smaller 0.3ppt in Queensland at 6.4% but a solid 0.9ppt lift in SA to 6.9%, the highest unemployment rate in Australia.</p>
<p>The only state to record a decline in unemployment from December is WA where it fell –0.4ppt to 5.9% which is still above the national average.</p>
<p>For complete chart pack <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/August/JulyLabour-FI_chart_pack.pdf" target="_blank"><strong>July Labour Force Chart Pack (pdf </strong><strong>334kb)</strong></a></p>
<p><em>JUSTIN SMIRK is ‎a senior economist for Westpac</em></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
</body></html>

Labour force data will leave the RBA on the sidelines next month: Justin Smirk

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION </p>
<p>The minutes of the April monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board have provided the clearest signal yet that the Bank would be prepared to cut the cash rate.</p>
<p>Firstly, the final section “Considerations for Monetary Policy” states “a lower level of interest rates could still be expected to support the economy through a depreciation of the exchange rate and via reducing required interest payments on borrowing, freeing up cash for other expenditure”.</p>
<p>The Board even sets out the conditions for a rate cut, “members also discussed the scenario where inflation did not move any higher and unemployment trended up, noting that a decrease in the cash rate would likely be appropriate in these circumstances”.</p>
<p>Recently the latest quarterly breakdown of employment by industry printed for the year to February.</p>
<p>We have considered this industry breakdown to try to find some insights into the RBA’s “tension” between the GDP and Employment Reports.</p>
<p>For a start it is reasonable to separate out the employment data into “cyclical” and “non-cyclical” sectors.</p>
<p>We have looked at “non-cyclical” covering: public administration; education and training; health care; and utilities.</p>
<p>Cyclical sectors are considered to be the other thirteen including: construction; manufacturing; retail and wholesale trade; accommodation; transport; finance; mining; real estate; recreation; and media.</p>
<p>The “non-cyclical “group has increased as a proportion of total employment from 27.9% in February 2008 to 31.9% in February 2019. That 4% increase in share represents 510,000 jobs in today’s workforce.</p>
<p>The cyclical group has fallen as a proportion of the workforce from 64.6% in February 2008 to 59.4% in February 2019.</p>
<p>It is important to note that “public administration” has increased by 18% over the last year but we assess that a considerable part of that increase has been due to reclassification of health and education workers from “private” to “public”.</p>
<p>Because we are including public; education; and health in the noncyclical category the reclassification does not distort the results.</p>
<p>Finally we have one remaining category – “professional services”.</p>
<p>This group represents 8.7% of total employment covering: management consulting; computer system design; accounting services; legal services; and engineers.</p>
<p>This category represents 8.7% of total employment having increased from 7.4% in February 2008.</p>
<p>Consider Table 1 to assess whether there has been any evidence of the impact of the slowdown in growth in the economy on employment.</p>
<p>The table uses the six month annualised growth rate for jobs in the three categories (using a two quarter average to smooth the series).</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/19/New%20Project%207.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The following observations are relevant:</p>
<ul>
<li>As noted by the RBA, overall momentum in the jobs market has held fairly steady over the last 18 months despite the slowdown in economic growth (2.6% in the six months to February 2018 to 2.2% in the last six months).</li>
<li>However, momentum in the “cyclical” sectors has slowed markedly from 2.9% in the six months to February 2018 to –0.4% in the six months to February 2019.</li>
<li>Momentum in the “non-cyclical” sectors has lifted considerably from 1.5% to 5.6% over the same period.</li>
<li>The professional services sector has been booming. So the “puzzle” about the labour market is not as opaque as might be expected.</li>
</ul>
<p>Non-cyclical jobs (dominated by government) have been strong and this sector is increasing as a proportion of total employment.</p>
<p>Cyclical sectors are slowing markedly and are falling as a proportion of total employment.</p>
<p>Given the lags and the cautious outlook for growth, employment in these sectors is likely to continue to slow.</p>
<p>It is not clear whether the “professional services” sector best fits in the cyclical or the non-cyclical categories.</p>
<p>Certainly, strong government spending in the infrastructure space is likely to explain a considerable part of the success of this category; the sharp lift in government regulations is also supporting this sector.</p>
<p>Furthermore, there is also likely to be a structural element to the success of this sector as companies embrace technology to boost productivity and substitute labour.</p>
<p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p>
<p>The Board of the RBA has nominated the labour market as the key for the policy outlook.</p>
<p>We are disappointed that ongoing low inflation and the persistent need to lower growth forecasts seems to be out-weighed by the employment “story”.</p>
<p>Our analysis points to a marked slowdown in jobs growth already being well underway in the cyclical sectors of the economy.</p>
<p>We expect that eventual recognition of these facts will keep the RBA on track for our expected first rate cut in August.</p>
<p><em><strong>Bill Evans</strong> is Chief Economist at Westpac.</em></p>
</body></html>

Cyclical jobs are slowing, complicating the RBA’s employment puzzle: Bill Evans

<html><body>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The February Labour Force Survey was a disappointing update on the Australian labour market reporting a fall in total employment along with unemployment rising to its highest level in 15 months.</p>
<p>So far in 2017 the labour market has been quite a bit softer than we had anticipated.</p>
<p>In February total employment declined 6.4k and the annual was flat at 0.9 percent/yr holding well under the pace that our Jobs Index suggests it should be – circa 1¾ percent/yr and accelerating to around 2¼ percent/yr by late 2017.</p>
<p>The ABS notes that in the February survey sample rotation may explain some of the weakness in the month. In March if the sample rolling in is more like the average  of the total sample then this would result a bit of a positive bump. But sample volatility does not explain the weakness seen over the last three months.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/13/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-13%20at%208.33.47%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/13/Screen%20Shot%202017-04-13%20at%208.33.47%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Our 20k forecast for March holds the annual pace at 0.9 percent/yr but we note that changing seasonality increases the risk to this forecast.</p>
<p>In February, the rise in full-time employment was not a positive sign as it did not broken the recent trend for a greater focus on part-time employment. In addition the weakening in hours worked further emphasised that labour demand is somewhat weaker than what the business surveys suggest.</p>
<p>The –6.4k decline in employment in February was reported with a 19.5k jump in the labour force due to a flat participation rate of 64.6. This is why the unemployment rate jumped 0.2ppt to 5.9 percent (5.87 percent unrounded).</p>
<p>In March, if participation holds steady, a 20k gain in employment will be enough to hold unemployment rate steady at 5.9 percent.</p>
<p>Weak hours worked in late 2015 were something of an early warning of the soft patch in employment. In January we had found it very promising that hours worked per employee lifted 0.8 percent in the two months to Jan. Since then hours worked have pulled back so we are again closely watching to see if this is presaging a further slowdown in employment.</p>
<p>We also note a small lift in employees who expect to lose their job due to their employer closing. This series can lead changes in the unemployment rate. </p>
<p><em>Justin Smirk is ‎senior economist, Westpac Group and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/westpac-group/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Looking for signs of stability in the labour market: Westpac's Justin Smirk

<html><body>
<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/68802/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Over the last few years, we’ve seen a massive shift in the way we work.</p>
<p>Thousands of Australians have abandoned the traditional 40-hour work week to work fewer hours or take on ad-hoc work, such as driving for Uber or doing odd jobs on Airtasker. </p>
<p>But the way we measure the labour market has not kept up. We still rely on the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ labour force survey, a survey from the 1960s conducted according to international conventions that is no longer appropriate for today’s labour market.</p>
<p>Today’s economy – one of independent contractors, ad-hoc work, irregular and flexible hours – needs a new form of measurement. </p>
<h2>How the government measures the workforce</h2>
<p>Every month the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) surveys about 0.32% of the civilian population aged over 15 years about their employment status.</p>
<p>In short, you’re counted as employed if you completed at least one hour of paid work in the week before the survey.</p>
<p>But this doesn’t sound quite right. Clearly, one hour of paid work per week doesn’t fit most people’s idea of employment.</p>
<p>In fact, over one million workers are counted as “underemployed”, meaning they would work more hours if they could. This raises the question of whether these people should really be considered “employed”. The answer depends on what policy question you are trying to address.</p>
<h2>Is our unemployment rate right?</h2>
<p>Let’s get right into how our unemployment rate is calculated.</p>
<p>If respondents haven’t done any paid work in the last week, they are asked two further questions – first, have they actively sought work in the last four weeks, and second, are they currently available to start work? They are only considered unemployed if they answer yes to both of these questions. Otherwise, they’re not counted as part of the labour force. </p>
<p>This means full-time homemakers, carers, the ill and non-working retirees aren’t considered unemployed.</p>
<p>The labour force is the sum of the employed and the unemployed. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labour force who are unemployed. </p>
<p>Lastly, the participation rate is the percentage of the population aged 15 and older who are in the labour force. According to the latest ABS trend estimates, the participation rate stood at 64.5% in November, no change from October.</p>
<p>The participation rate has been consistently trending upwards over time for women and falling for men. This does not mean women are increasingly doing more work but that over time they have switched from unpaid to paid work. One of the main reasons for falling participation among men is that unskilled manual jobs for older men have been declining over several decades and many men have been reclassified as unemployed, disabled or retired. </p>
<h2>More issues with the survey</h2>
<p>The Labour Force Survey only provides a measure of employment and not the number of jobs. For example, a person might work 20 hours per week at a supermarket and 10 hours per week as an Uber driver. Employment is always classified according to the “main job”, so the ABS deems them as one person employed part-time (working fewer than 35 hours) in the retail industry. </p>
<p>If that person worked five more hours as an Uber driver the next week, they would be classified as full-time (35 hours) but the supermarket job would still determine the industry in which they are employed.</p>
<p>The crucial problem here is that there are two jobs being done, but the ABS employment estimate only counts one. So be wary of commentators and politicians making statements like “the economy gained/lost 10,000 jobs last month”! What jobs are they measuring?</p>
<p>The labour force survey also fails to make distinctions between different types of workers. About two million Australians work as independent contractors like construction workers or other business operators such as hairdressers working from home. However, in the figures they are not distinguished from regular employees.</p>
<p>Whereas it might be relatively easy for an employee to know if they did any paid work in the week before the survey, it might not be so obvious for a non-employee. For instance, an author might work 50 hours on their book one week and three hours the next. Most of their work is basic research rather than writing. They receive a royalty payment twice a year. How would they answer the question of whether they did any paid work in the last week?</p>
<p>For non-employees the question of whether they are prepared to start work and have been actively looking for work can also be complex. Someone doing consultancy work might not actively look for work because clients seek them out instead.</p>
<h2>We need something new</h2>
<p>The ABS has tried tackling some of these issues by conducting some different surveys, including the Characteristics of Employment Surveywhich presents information on all employed persons according to their status of employment. However, the framework classifies jobholders by their main job. That is, only the job in which they usually worked the most hours. This doesn’t capture many of the issues of concern in, say, the “sharing” or “gig” economy </p>
<p>The ABS has also attempted to compare the number of filled jobs to the amount of employed people, using estimates in the labour force survey. This can reveal interesting information about the labour market. For instance, in February 2013 there were 11,628,300 employed people in Australia, but an estimated 12,287,200 filled jobs. That is, there were 658,900 more filled jobs than there were employed people. </p>
<p>But even then, the estimates still use the conventional definition of a job. </p>
<p>The ABS is still working on an Australian Labour Market Account, based on International Labor Organisation (ILO) methodology, which may address some of the issues discussed here. But this will still be based on traditional definitions of jobs, employment, and unemployment.</p>
<p>Our conventional employment measures are no longer equipped to inform us about important aspects of our labour force and a reliance on them could lead to inappropriate policy. We need labour force numbers than can capture the nuances of a modern economy.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name">Phil Lewis is p</span>rofessor of economics, University of Canberra and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/phil-lewis-8714" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

Finding new ways to measure the Australian labour force

<html><body>
<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/68802/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Over the last few years, we’ve seen a massive shift in the way we work.</p>
<p>Thousands of Australians have abandoned the traditional 40-hour work week to work fewer hours or take on ad-hoc work, such as driving for Uber or doing odd jobs on Airtasker. </p>
<p>But the way we measure the labour market has not kept up. We still rely on the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ labour force survey, a survey from the 1960s conducted according to international conventions that is no longer appropriate for today’s labour market.</p>
<p>Today’s economy – one of independent contractors, ad-hoc work, irregular and flexible hours – needs a new form of measurement. </p>
<h2>How the government measures the workforce</h2>
<p>Every month the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) surveys about 0.32% of the civilian population aged over 15 years about their employment status.</p>
<p>In short, you’re counted as employed if you completed at least one hour of paid work in the week before the survey.</p>
<p>But this doesn’t sound quite right. Clearly, one hour of paid work per week doesn’t fit most people’s idea of employment.</p>
<p>In fact, over one million workers are counted as “underemployed”, meaning they would work more hours if they could. This raises the question of whether these people should really be considered “employed”. The answer depends on what policy question you are trying to address.</p>
<h2>Is our unemployment rate right?</h2>
<p>Let’s get right into how our unemployment rate is calculated.</p>
<p>If respondents haven’t done any paid work in the last week, they are asked two further questions – first, have they actively sought work in the last four weeks, and second, are they currently available to start work? They are only considered unemployed if they answer yes to both of these questions. Otherwise, they’re not counted as part of the labour force. </p>
<p>This means full-time homemakers, carers, the ill and non-working retirees aren’t considered unemployed.</p>
<p>The labour force is the sum of the employed and the unemployed. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labour force who are unemployed. </p>
<p>Lastly, the participation rate is the percentage of the population aged 15 and older who are in the labour force. According to the latest ABS trend estimates, the participation rate stood at 64.5% in November, no change from October.</p>
<p>The participation rate has been consistently trending upwards over time for women and falling for men. This does not mean women are increasingly doing more work but that over time they have switched from unpaid to paid work. One of the main reasons for falling participation among men is that unskilled manual jobs for older men have been declining over several decades and many men have been reclassified as unemployed, disabled or retired. </p>
<h2>More issues with the survey</h2>
<p>The Labour Force Survey only provides a measure of employment and not the number of jobs. For example, a person might work 20 hours per week at a supermarket and 10 hours per week as an Uber driver. Employment is always classified according to the “main job”, so the ABS deems them as one person employed part-time (working fewer than 35 hours) in the retail industry. </p>
<p>If that person worked five more hours as an Uber driver the next week, they would be classified as full-time (35 hours) but the supermarket job would still determine the industry in which they are employed.</p>
<p>The crucial problem here is that there are two jobs being done, but the ABS employment estimate only counts one. So be wary of commentators and politicians making statements like “the economy gained/lost 10,000 jobs last month”! What jobs are they measuring?</p>
<p>The labour force survey also fails to make distinctions between different types of workers. About two million Australians work as independent contractors like construction workers or other business operators such as hairdressers working from home. However, in the figures they are not distinguished from regular employees.</p>
<p>Whereas it might be relatively easy for an employee to know if they did any paid work in the week before the survey, it might not be so obvious for a non-employee. For instance, an author might work 50 hours on their book one week and three hours the next. Most of their work is basic research rather than writing. They receive a royalty payment twice a year. How would they answer the question of whether they did any paid work in the last week?</p>
<p>For non-employees the question of whether they are prepared to start work and have been actively looking for work can also be complex. Someone doing consultancy work might not actively look for work because clients seek them out instead.</p>
<h2>We need something new</h2>
<p>The ABS has tried tackling some of these issues by conducting some different surveys, including the Characteristics of Employment Surveywhich presents information on all employed persons according to their status of employment. However, the framework classifies jobholders by their main job. That is, only the job in which they usually worked the most hours. This doesn’t capture many of the issues of concern in, say, the “sharing” or “gig” economy </p>
<p>The ABS has also attempted to compare the number of filled jobs to the amount of employed people, using estimates in the labour force survey. This can reveal interesting information about the labour market. For instance, in February 2013 there were 11,628,300 employed people in Australia, but an estimated 12,287,200 filled jobs. That is, there were 658,900 more filled jobs than there were employed people. </p>
<p>But even then, the estimates still use the conventional definition of a job. </p>
<p>The ABS is still working on an Australian Labour Market Account, based on International Labor Organisation (ILO) methodology, which may address some of the issues discussed here. But this will still be based on traditional definitions of jobs, employment, and unemployment.</p>
<p>Our conventional employment measures are no longer equipped to inform us about important aspects of our labour force and a reliance on them could lead to inappropriate policy. We need labour force numbers than can capture the nuances of a modern economy.</p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name">Phil Lewis is p</span>rofessor of economics, University of Canberra and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/phil-lewis-8714" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

mick.cee-iDmgDDAmu8

We need to find new ways to measure the Australian labour force

<html><body>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Today's jobs numbers were weaker than expected, with broadly flat jobs in February (market had +14k).</p>
<p>However, at the same time, the unemployment rate outperformed by falling to 5.8 percent (market had 6.0 percent), due to an unexpected sharp decline in the participation rate. Measurement issues have pervaded this survey making it difficult to get a clear reading. This is the third consecutive month of weak jobs growth, but this partly reflects pay-back for very strong numbers late last year.</p>
<p>Cutting through the noise, the trend measures show the unemployment rate is still below its peak, suggesting gradual labour market improvement. However, unemployment is still well above its full employment level, which is likely to continue to weigh on wages growth and domestic inflation, leaving the RBA with scope to cut further.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/17/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-17%20at%202.58.35%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/17/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-17%20at%202.58.35%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p><br> <br>Facts<br> <br>Employment was broadly flat (up by just 300 jobs) in February (market expected +13.5k, HSBC expected +10k). Over the past six months, employment growth has averaged +20k a month. Annual employment growth has eased to 2.1 percent, down from a peak of 2.9 percent in November.<br> <br>The participation rate fell by 0.3ppts to 64.9 percent, the lowest rate since June 2015.<br> <br>Because of the drop in participation, the unemployment rate fell from 6.0 percent to 5.8 percent (the market and HSBC expected 6.0 percent).<br> <br>- The employment-to-population ratio fell from 61.2 percent to 61.1 percent, the lowest level since October 2015.<br> <br>Total hours worked fell by 0.1 percent m-o-m in seasonally-adjusted terms, and were up 2.2 percent y-o-y. Trend growth in hours worked slowed from 2.6 percent to 2.4 percent y-o-y.<br> <br>Implications<br> <br>Australia's official labour force survey is still suffering from measurement issues that make it complicated to interpret the results. Jobs were broadly flat in February, following falls in the previous two months, but this was after very strong growth in employment in October and November last year. A large part of the recent weakness appears to be 'payback' for the over-stated strength last year. However, it is not easy to separate the signal from the noise.<br> <br>One way to do this is to look at the trend measures within the official survey. These are showing gradual improvement in the labour market. The trend measure of the unemployment rate is at 5.8 percent, down from a peak of 6.3 percent in late 2014.</p>
<p>Another way to do this is to look at the collection of other indicators of the labour market, including job advertisements, job vacancies and hiring intentions in the business surveys. These are showing a more modest improvement in the labour market than is implied by the official numbers (see Figure 4 below).<br> <br>The other key issue is that although the range of indicators suggests that there has been a trend improvement in the labour market, the pick-up has not been enough to absorb sufficient spare capacity to put upward pressure on wages growth and domestic inflation.</p>
<p>Combine this with underlying inflation that is already at the bottom edge of the target band, weak global inflation and a climbing AUD, and it is likely that inflation will remain low. We expect underlying inflation to fall below the bottom edge of the RBA's 2-3 percent target band in H1 2016. Our central case has the RBA easing by a further 25bps around the middle of this year.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/03/17/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-17%20at%203.00.14%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/03/17/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-17%20at%203.00.14%20PM.png" alt="" width="1256" height="562"></p>
<p><em>Paul Bloxham is chief economist (ANZ) for HSBC . Daniel Smith is economist. They can be contacted <a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

Labour Force

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

The latest real estate & off the plan properties & news, delivered to your inbox.

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

The latest real estate & off the plan properties & news, delivered to your inbox.

Labour Force

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

The latest real estate & off the plan properties & news, delivered to your inbox.

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

The latest real estate & off the plan properties & news, delivered to your inbox.