<p>Longstanding Gold Coast and Canberra developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/morris-property-group">Morris Property Group</a> is continuing to roll on with its Glitter Strip apartment pipeline, seeking to return to Mermaid Beach with a new 68-apartment development.</p>

<p>Morris, founded by Barry Morris in 1978 and one of the Gold Coast’s most prolific apartment developers over the past two decades, has filed plans for a 12-storey mixed-use building at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/36-seabeach-avenue-mermaid-beach-qld-4218">34-36 Seabeach Avenue</a>, on the prized eastern side of the Gold Coast Highway.</p>

<p>The 1,227 sqm site occupies a prominent corner position at Seabeach Avenue and the Gold Coast Highway, opposite the Mermaid Plaza retail and office precinct and around 140 metres walking distance from the future Mermaid Beach South light rail station.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser &amp; Partners</a> has designed the project, which will comprise 68 apartments across a mix of 48 two-bedroom and 20 three-bedroom residences.</p>

<p>The building will rise 12 storeys, reaching a maximum height of 36 metres, with the apartments accounting for a total of 156 bedrooms. The development application also seeks approval for short-term accommodation across the 68 apartments, while two office tenancies are proposed at ground level.</p>

<p>The plans show 108 car spaces across the development, with parking accommodated at ground level and within a three-level basement accessed from Seabeach Avenue.</p>

<p><img alt="Seabeach Avenue and the Gold Coast Highway" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c2175c99-12fd-4a3c-9be1-89bbf258a90d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-20%20at%202.59.41%E2%80%AFPM_0.png?VersionId=iNLzWcE6gaAE76rafhEXfHve.4g4Se0p" /></p>

<p>Resident amenity will be concentrated on level two, where Fraser &amp; Partners has designed a recreation deck with a swimming pool, 90 sqm pool terrace, outdoor barbecue area and gym.</p>

<p>The broader communal offering will also incorporate landscaped spaces, with the planning documents noting the amenity has been designed to provide areas for recreation, social interaction and outdoor living.</p>

<p>The proposal would continue the transformation of the Gold Coast Highway corridor through Mermaid Beach ahead of the arrival of the light rail.</p>

<p>The site is zoned Neighbourhood Centre and sits within the Mermaid Beach/Broadbeach Light Rail Corridor neighbourhood plan. While the prescribed building height is 24 metres, the site is identified within an Urban Neighbourhood context providing for a 50 per cent height uplift to 36 metres.</p>

<p>Planning documents describe the stretch of the Gold Coast Highway between Broadbeach and Nobby Beach as increasingly characterised by medium and high-rise development, with the proposed Morris tower joining projects including Ventura, The Alfred, Oceans and Otto.</p>

<p><img alt="Seabeach Avenue and the Gold Coast Highway" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="911f193f-e381-4a55-be08-58be87fcf978" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-20%20at%202.59.48%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=oxVvLJaY.SOXEdXrIcogfyEXDfvCmmpM" /></p>

<p>The development would mark Morris Property Group's latest investment in Mermaid Beach, where it has already delivered two apartment projects.</p>

<p>Otto, at 1 Bondi Avenue on the western side of the Gold Coast Highway, comprises 70 apartments across nine storeys. The project was completed in 2019 and includes a residents' gym, recreation deck and swimming pool.</p>

<p>Morris also developed Oceans at 46 Ocean Street, a nine-storey, 70-apartment build-to-rent development completed in 2019. Oceans was the group's first build-to-rent project and incorporates commercial space at ground level.</p>

<p>The two existing Morris projects sit further north along the same Gold Coast Highway corridor as the proposed Seabeach Avenue development. Fraser &amp; Partners' planning analysis specifically identifies both Otto and Oceans among the established built-form precedents surrounding the site.</p>

<p><img alt="Seabeach Avenue and the Gold Coast Highway" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="14925119-7b71-4812-8149-340317512c7c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-20%20at%203.00.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=aEJqYuw_nTCjcin17BSD0piB1EFotTlj" /></p>

<p>Mermaid Beach represents only part of Morris' considerable Gold Coast footprint.</p>

<p>The family-owned developer has been particularly active in neighbouring Broadbeach, delivering projects including Sierra Grand, Eclipse, Synergy, Qube, Koko, Opus and Malo, while its current pipeline includes Maison and the two-tower Crest development.</p>

<p>Further south, Morris has also developed a string of projects in Burleigh Heads, including Element, Boardwalk and Sandbar, while Essentia expanded its footprint north into Surfers Paradise.</p>

<p>The Seabeach Avenue application has been lodged by PMM Broadbeach Pty Ltd and seeks a development permit for a Material Change of Use for multiple dwellings, short-term accommodation and office uses. Zone Planning Group prepared the planning application, with Fraser &amp; Partners commissioned as architect.</p>

<p>The project comes as the developer continues to expand its Gold Coast pipeline while retaining a significant presence in Canberra. Morris now has more than $2.5 billion of development in its national pipeline and has delivered more than 7,000 homes during its near five-decade history</p>


Joel Robinson

First look: Morris Property Group returns to Mermaid Beach with new Seabeach Avenue apartment development

<p><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/fortis&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1787272340808000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3hvFB2uWTRfEyEcpTSnnK9" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/fortis" target="_blank">Fortis</a>&nbsp;is continuing its stronghold on Sydn​ey’s eastern suburbs apartment market, launching&nbsp;in September&nbsp;its latest boutique&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/double-bay-nsw-2028&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1787272340808000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0GI5S9-wNeiLUnM-d1uYkw" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/double-bay-nsw-2028" target="_blank">Double Bay</a>&nbsp;development,&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-william-double-bay-55-william-street-double-bay-nsw-2028&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1787272340808000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2YNouJQcFjiTTgVHbgDLA-" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-william-double-bay-55-william-street-double-bay-nsw-2028" target="_blank">55 William</a>.</p>

<p>55 William presents&nbsp;just eight north-facing&nbsp;two-bedroom, three-bedroom and full-floor&nbsp;residences to the market, priced from $4.5 million.</p>

<p>The upcoming launch comes just weeks after Fortis secured approval for the $80 million development, its third eastern suburbs approval in two months. Construction is already underway, with completion targeted for 2028.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=152579 project_image_fid=376250]</p>

<p>55 William adds to a growing concentration of Fortis projects in and around Double Bay, a market the developer has become increasingly active in over recent years.</p>

<p>Fortis previously completed the nine-residence Marmont on New South Head Road, while it is currently developing a mixed-use residential and retail project at 12 Cross Street. Its wider Double Bay footprint also extends into commercial and retail development.</p>

<p>The developer's broader Sydney residential pipeline is particularly concentrated across the eastern suburbs, with projects spanning Doub​le Bay, Ro​se Bay, Wo​ollahra, Dar​ling Point, Poi​nt Piper and Eli​zabeth Bay.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=152579 project_image_fid=376253]</p>

<p>At 55 William, Fortis has again turned to MHN Design Union, the architecture practice behind several of its eastern suburbs projects, while London-based 1508 London has been appointed to handle the interiors and Wyer &amp; Co the landscaping.</p>

<p>The six-level building will comprise a combination of two and three-bedroom apartments, including a garden residence, full-floor apartments, a sub-penthouse and penthouse. Each residence will have secure basement parking and private outdoor space.</p>

<p>A rooftop terrace for all residents, along with select apartments, enjoys views across Double Bay Harbour and toward the Sydney skyline.</p>

<p>Ceiling heights will reach up to three metres&nbsp;in select residences, while the kitchens will feature natural stone and integrated Gaggenau appliances.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The boutique nature of the project reflects the type of stock Fortis has increasingly targeted across Sydney's eastern suburbs, where larger apartments and smaller buildings are being pitched primarily toward local owner-occupiers and downsizers.</p>

<p>Fortis Group General Manager Ed Eve said the developer continues to see demand from buyers wanting to remain in the eastern suburbs but move into newer, lower-maintenance housing.</p>

<p>“We're seeing continued demand from local owner-occupiers and downsizers looking for high-quality homes that allow them to remain in the eastern suburbs, close to the lifestyle and community they know,” Eve said.</p>

<p>55 William is also one of the early projects to respond directly to the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing reforms. Fortis had previously secured approval for just two townhouses on the 599 sqm site before revising the scheme to eight apartments following the planning changes.</p>

<p style="text-align:start">Situated one street back from Double Bay's water's edge, the project enjoys an enviable harbourside setting within walking distance of Double Bay Village and the ferry wharf.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=152579 project_image_fid=376252]</p>

<p>Fortis has increasingly made the eastern suburbs a major focus of its Sydney pipeline. Beyond Double Bay, it recently completed the 14-residence Piper in Point Piper and has projects underway or planned across Rose Bay, Woollahra and Darling Point.</p>

<p>The developer recently secured approval for Verano in Rose Bay, a six-level development comprising 21 two, three and four-bedroom apartments, also designed by MHNDU.</p>

<p>55 William&nbsp;is soon to be release to the market with VIP appointments commencing early September,&nbsp;with residences priced from $4.5 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152579]</p>


Fortis continues eastern suburbs push with 55 William launch

<p>UAE-based developer Arada has unveiled plans for a $2 billion twin-tower apartment development in Broadbeach, marking its first move into Queensland as it continues its rapid expansion across Australia.</p>

<p>Arada will develop 952 apartments across two towers on a prominent site opposite the Gold Coast Convention and Exhibition Centre, with the project targeted for completion ahead of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.</p>

<p>The project represents Arada's largest commitment to the Australian market since arriving in the country in 2024 and significantly expands a local pipeline that has now grown to eight projects and more than 5,000 homes.</p>

<p>It will also be the first major Queensland project delivered by Roberts Co since the tier-one contractor was acquired by Arada Group in 2025.</p>

<p>Plus Studio has designed the Broadbeach development, which will comprise one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two towers connected by a landscaped podium.</p>

<p>A significant resident amenity offering will include lagoon and lap pools, a gym, sauna and steam room, alongside a mist room, infrared room and salt scrub facilities. Communal terraces, private dining areas, a library, residents' lounge and work-from-home spaces are also planned. Around 1,200 sqm of retail and hospitality space will occupy the ground floor.</p>

<p>The site puts Arada in one of the Gold Coast's most active apartment markets, directly opposite the convention centre and within walking distance of Pacific Fair, The Star Gold Coast and Broadbeach's dining and retail precinct.</p>

<p>It also has immediate access to the Gold Coast light rail network and sits just a few blocks from the beach.</p>

<p>Arada Group Chief Executive Ahmed Alkhoshaibi said Broadbeach represented an opportunity for the developer to expand beyond its initial NSW pipeline.</p>

<p>“Broadbeach is a world-class address that gives us the canvas to create a community of exceptional design and lifestyle quality that genuinely enriches the daily lives of the people who call it home,” Alkhoshaibi said.</p>

<p>“This is our first development outside New South Wales, and it reflects our growing ambition to grow in key urban markets around the country.”</p>

<p>Alkhoshaibi said bringing Roberts Co into the project would give Arada greater control over the development and construction process.</p>

<p>“Delivering this project through Roberts Co, our own tier-one construction business, means we can bring the quality, pace and accountability that our buyers expect.”</p>

<p>The move into Broadbeach comes as Arada accelerates its Australian expansion following its entry into the market two years ago. The developer has assembled a pipeline of eight projects comprising more than 5,000 homes, while the acquisition of Roberts Co last year gave the group its own Australian construction capability.</p>

<p>Globally, Arada has a development portfolio valued at $50 billion comprising more than 55,000 homes across the UAE, United Kingdom and Australia.</p>

<p>The Gold Coast is emerging as the next major market for the developer, with strong population growth and infrastructure spending ahead of the 2032 Games continuing to underpin significant apartment development across the coastal strip.</p>


Arada plots $2 billion Broadbeach towers in major Queensland move

<p>Sydney’s downsizer market is changing, with a growing cohort of buyers prioritising the right home over simply finding a smaller one.</p>

<p>Coronation Property Head of Sales Cam Porter says the traditional idea of downsizing does not necessarily reflect what many buyers are now looking for, particularly those moving from established family homes across Sydney.</p>

<p>Instead, he says they are increasingly becoming “right-sizers”, seeking lower-maintenance homes without sacrificing the space, amenity or quality they have become accustomed to.</p>

<p>“We are increasingly seeing buyers who are not motivated by the idea of simply moving into a smaller property,” Porter says.</p>

<p>“They are right-sizers. They want a home that is easier to manage and better connected, but they still expect generosity, quality and a floorplan that supports the way they live.”</p>

<p>It is a subtle but important distinction in a market where apartment developers are increasingly targeting established owner-occupiers.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135149 project_image_fid=377495]</p>

<p>For many of these buyers, moving from a house to an apartment is not driven by a desire to dramatically reduce their living space. Instead, the appeal is in removing some of the maintenance associated with a larger home while retaining generous living areas, storage and enough flexibility to accommodate family and friends.</p>

<p>Coronation’s sales team is seeing buyers place particular importance on natural light, practical storage and additional rooms that can be used as guest bedrooms, home offices or secondary living spaces.</p>

<p>Kitchens and dining areas are also playing an increasingly important role, particularly for buyers who regularly entertain or have children and grandchildren visit.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135149 project_image_fid=377494]</p>

<p>“These buyers still want their home to feel generous,” Porter says.</p>

<p>“They may want less maintenance, but they are not looking for less life.”</p>

<p>The challenge for the broader housing market is providing enough of the right stock to encourage that move.</p>

<p>While much of the discussion around Sydney’s housing shortage has centred on the number of homes being delivered, Porter says the diversity of those homes is equally important.</p>

<p>Older homeowners can remain in large family houses for longer when they cannot find an appropriate alternative in the neighbourhoods where they have built their lives.</p>

<p>“The decision is rarely as simple as wanting fewer bedrooms,” Porter says.</p>

<p>“People are weighing up their connection to a neighbourhood, the space they need for family, the quality of the home and whether it will continue to work for them over the long term.”</p>

<p>It also has implications beyond the downsizer market. Providing suitable apartments for smaller households can free up established houses for families who need the additional bedrooms and land, creating greater movement through the housing market.</p>

<h2>Lillian targets the next stage of apartment buyer</h2>

<p>It is a buyer Coronation is targeting at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lillian-erskineville-9-metters-street-erskineville-nsw-2043">Lillian</a>, its new collection of apartments, terraces and penthouses at Erskineville Village.</p>

<p>Designed by Silvester Fuller, Lillian has been shaped around larger living spaces, natural light and flexible floorplans, alongside landscaped areas, wellness amenity and communal spaces for residents.</p>

<p>The development will form part of Coronation’s broader Erskineville Village precinct, which will combine new homes with green space, retail, hospitality and new pedestrian connections.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135149 project_image_fid=377688]</p>

<p>McPherson Park will sit at the centre of the precinct, creating a significant new green space alongside the project’s retail and hospitality offering.</p>

<p>For Porter, the opportunity is to give buyers another housing option without forcing them to leave the part of Sydney they already know.</p>

<p>“People should be able to change the type of home they live in without having to change their entire life,” he says.</p>

<p>“For many buyers, Lillian offers the opportunity to remain connected to the Inner West and the city, while gaining access to a more convenient, walkable and considered way of living.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135149 project_image_fid=377687]</p>

<p>Coronation will explore the changing <a href="https://lillianresidences.com.au/news/lillian-x-space-x-downsizers-event-27-august/">right-sizer market at an event on August 27</a>, bringing together experts across property, design and lifestyle.</p>

<p>Held in partnership with SPACE, Poliform and Downsizer.com.au, the event will include a property market outlook from economist Michael Blythe alongside discussion around the considerations facing buyers planning their next move.</p>

<p>Attendees will also be able to learn more about the residences and amenity planned at Lillian Erskineville.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135149]</p>


From downsizing to right-sizing: What Sydney buyers want from their next home

<p>Family-owned builder and developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/omaya">Omaya</a> is bringing its 27-storey The Maybelle development to market, with the 229-apartment tower rising alongside Ismay Reserve near North Strathfield.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-maybelle-21-parramatta-road-homebush-nsw-2140">The Maybelle</a> will comprise one, two and three-bedroom apartments, with its height providing elevated outlooks towards the Sydney skyline and Harbour Bridge, while other residences will look across neighbouring Ismay Reserve.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/squillace-architects">Squillace Architects</a>, the tower combines its parkside setting with proximity to the established retail, dining and transport amenity around North Strathfield.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134873 project_image_fid=376196]</p>

<p>Residences will feature open-plan living spaces and a choice of two interior schemes, while communal amenity is spread across two elevated levels of the building.</p>

<p>Level 8 will be home to the Garden Pavilion, a full-floor resident space incorporating communal entertaining and breakout areas, seating and recreation spaces. Further up the tower, a landscaped Sky Terrace on Level 14 will provide another communal area with panoramic views towards the Harbour Bridge and Sydney skyline.</p>

<p>At ground level, the development sits directly alongside Ismay Reserve, where lawns, walking paths, children's play areas, picnic spaces and recreational facilities extend the green space available immediately around the project.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134873 project_image_fid=376194]</p>

<p>The Maybelle is also within walking distance of North Strathfield and the Bakehouse Quarter, which provides a mix of cafés, restaurants, shops and everyday services.</p>

<p>Existing rail and bus services provide connections across Sydney, while the future North Strathfield Metro and access to the M4 will add to the transport options available around the precinct. Walking and cycling routes also extend via Powells Creek towards Sydney Olympic Park and its sporting, entertainment and parkland precincts.</p>

<p>Families are also well positioned for access to a broad selection of established schools and education options across Strathfield and the surrounding Inner West.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134873 project_image_fid=376181]</p>

<p>Omaya has operated in Sydney for more than 35 years, managing projects from acquisition and design through to construction and delivery. The family-owned company is both developer and builder of The Maybelle.</p>

<p>Apartments start from $560,000, with the development protected by 10-year Latent Defects Insurance.</p>

<p>Construction is well underway, with completion expected by the end of 2026 and move-in anticipated from Q1 2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134873]</p>


The Maybelle brings 27-storey parkside tower to market near North Strathfield

Investor Lending

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<p><span>A reasonably solid set of </span>Lending Finance<span> numbers were reported for October 2015, with commercial finance fairly flat, down 1% at a seasonally adjusted $45.6 billion (following a 9% jump in September), and total lending tentatively inching up to a new trend high of $73.7 billion. </span></p>
<p><span>Both commercial lending and total lending finance have recently breached 7 year highs.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/12/15/LF1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/12/15/LF1.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>As we saw </span>earlier in the week<span>, owner-occupier lending has increased very sharply, with commitments for the purchase or construction of dwellings up by 23% over the past year on a seasonally adjusted basis.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/12/15/LF2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/12/15/LF2.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<div>Lease finance increased by 17 per cent over the year, but loans for the purchase of blocks of residential land are down by some 25 per cent since one year ago.</div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Investor finance derailed</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>The flip side to the strong home loans data is that the cooling macroprudential measures implemented by APRA have derailed the runaway investor boom, with investor commitments crashing off their respective tracks across every state and territory.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/12/15/LF3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/15/LF3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Demand was fading in Western Australia and the Northern Territory in any case, and now after lending curbs even those who want to source investor finance are struggling to do so. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Prices will almost certainly thus follow rents down in 2016 in Perth and Darwin. The Top End in particular is looking set for a sharp correction, with median detached house rents having declined by around 20% and investor loans now tanking, down by more than 40 per cent over the past year. </div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/12/15/NT.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/15/NT.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Borrowers flipping the script</span></strong><br><br><div>The crimping of investor lending has clearly been enough to bring many property markets back to stall speed, as evidenced by stumbling auction clearance rates. However, there is a bit more to this than meets the eye, and it does not necessarily follow that APRA's measures will lead to declining house prices across the board (it seems unlikely that this was the intention in any case).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>For "Exhibit A" the Reserve Bank's Financial Aggregrates data has already implied that some loans are being switched to or reclassified as owner-occupier products, as borrowers aim to obtain the cheaper mortgage rates now associated with that sector of the market (see <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/12/credit-growth-at-near-7-year-high" target="_blank">here</a> for more).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And now for "Exhibit B", refer to the Housing Finance data for October released this week, which implies exactly the same thing, that borrowers and lenders are flipping the script in order to counter APRA's regulatory intervention. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/15/LF4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/15/LF4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>To date most of the increase in owner-occupier commitments has been focussed upon New South Wales and Victoria, although a fair proportion of that has related to refinancing rather than genuinely new lending.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/15/LF5.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/12/15/LF5.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>The Reserve Bank's Financial Aggregates data for October mirrored these trends closely, the net result being that housing credit growth rose to a fresh cyclical high of 7.5%, although it does seem that the pace of increase is steadying. </div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>There is evidently quite a bit going on in the housing finance space at the moment and not a great deal of clarity surrounding the numbers. In truth some lenders themselves probably have little clarity around the classification of loans beyond their initiation.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>To date it has become clear that the APRA measures have scrambled the market and have stopped the Sydney boom from rolling unchecked into another calendar year, with investor commitments having pulled back sharply right across the board.<br><br>In time, this will be seen to be a worthy step, since many markets had become far too top-heavy with investors. At the peak of the investor market, excluding refinancing, in New South Wales and Victoria investor loans had breached 60 and 50 per cent of the mortgage market respectively. Today the equivalent numbers are down to 50 and 40 percent and falling.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>My experience in the UK suggests to me that caution should be exercised before declaring the unpredictable outcomes of macroprudential measures prematurely. Britain's Mortgage Market Review (MMR), which had the stated goal of curbing irresponsible lending, radically changing mortgage rules with effect from April 2014 and for six months the housing market was gummed up by the paperwork and pen-pushing. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yet as of today UK housing prices are once again rising at a reomping annualised pace of 9 per cent, with the popular markets of the south east tracking in double digit territory to record highs. Unlike the global real estate experts out there I don't pretend to know a great deal about the experiences related to macroprudential measures in New Zealand, but assume similar tales could be told, at least in Auckland. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It will be an interesting start to 2016, which I think will be a more unpredictable year than most, and not only in the housing market space.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

2016 unpredictable for housing after APRA runs interference: Pete Wargent

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<div>Anyone who implies you that they have any genuine clarity around what is happening with Housing Finance data at the moment is telling you porkies, but since the September data was released today, let's at least see what we can deduce!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>At the margin there are evidently blurred lines between loans that are being classified as investor lending, and those which are determined to be owner-occupier approvals. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The figures reported for new investor lending dropped sharply in September to $12.3 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis, having pulled back from a record peak of above $14 billion in April. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As sure as night follows day, however, with Australia's major lenders continuing to target high returns on equity (ROE) there will certainly be a strong push to promote owner-occupier lending (ask for a mortgage discount!), and this was once again in evidence with another 3 per cent seasonally adjusted surge in the value of commitments in September to more than $21 billion.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thus while the monthly value of investor lending is now broadly flat year-on-year, the total value of owner-occupier commitments has leapt more than 23% higher.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/11/12/HF1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Blurred lines</span></strong></div>
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<div>Given the blurred lines in relation to loan classifications and refinancing right now, the most straightforward measure of housing market activity is simply to look at the aggregate value of housing finance. </div>
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<div>There was more than a slight suspicion that the rocketing value of owner-occupier commitments in the preceding month was partly a result of the mis-classification of refinancing as new lending.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While this story remains somewhat unclear for now, the housing finance data showed another very strong month of lending in aggregate at a seasonally adjusted $33.4 billion, taking the trend estimate up to a fresh high.</div>
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<div>Classification issues or no, given that total seasonally adjusted monthly housing finance breached $25 billion for the first time only two years previously in September 2013, a total result of $33.4 billion is a phenomenally high level of activity by any reckoning.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Ultimately, as pointed out by Reserve Bank Governor Stevens recently, borrowers can still source mortgage rates of close to 4 per cent despite the recent tightening on some investor loans, and there is still a good deal of appetite for borrowing where finance can be successfully sought.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Unintended consequences</span></strong><br><div> </div>
<div>Macroprudential measures taken to cool housing markets will inevitably have some unintended consequences, one of which may be that lenders demanding a high ROE target potential borrowers with existing equity, which in a curiously reflexive manner might skew lending towards markets which have already outperformed through the cycle.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That is, cooling measures could accidentally spill fuel onto raging fires, since banks still have a desire to lend even in the face of stricter loan-to-value ratio (LVR) controls. </div>
<div>
<br>Certainly in London we saw the Pommie equivalent Mortgage Market Review (MMR) gum up UK market activity in aggregate, yet by the end of Q2 2014 the London housing market was blowing off in a spectacular starburst of bubbliness, recording its fastest annual rate of price growth in nearly three decades at +26 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Nor has the underlying problem remotely gone away since, with record low mortgage rates helping to thrust the average London house price considerably <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/average-london-house-price-500000" target="_blank">hig</a><span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/average-london-house-price-500000" target="_blank">her still to <span>£</span>500,000</a>, </span>and the latest <a href="https://www.cityam.com/228290/uk-house-prices-london-property-prices-to-rise-a-third-by-2019-as-demand-continues-to-outweigh-supply" target="_blank">forecasts</a> projecting another kamikaze 31 per cent boom in London house prices by 2019. </div>
<div>
<br>Commentary suggesting that Auckland house prices would be curbed by macroprudential measures also proved to be misguided, at least in the near term, with house prices thereafter bubbling up in rampant fashion towards the million dollar mark, although a reversal may at last now be falling due.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Another of the unintended consequences of macroprudential measures may be a premature end to Australia's residential building boom, with loans for the construction of new homes sinking almost right across the board over the past year, and investor loans for the construction of new residential properties having tanked by nearly a quarter.<br><br>Thirdly, tighter lending measures will almost certainly knock more budding first time buyers out of the market, with market share tumbling from 15.8 per cent to 15.4 per cent in the month, and first time investors or "rent-vestors" doubtless befalling a similar fate due to their lack of existing equity.</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Granularity of markets</span></strong></div>
<div>
<br>In this context it will be interesting to see what happens to lending in Sydney and Melbourne over the year ahead, since there exists tentative evidence of similar patterns unfolding.</div>
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<div>Of the 23 per cent boom in the value of monthly owner-occupier commitments over the past year, New South Wales has accounted for nearly two thirds of that increase, and Victoria one third.<br><br>The two most populous states - and home to the two capital cities which have overwhelmingly played host to the housing value growth through this cycle to date - have accounted for almost all of the increase in the value of lending.</div>
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<div>Queensland is home to any number of regional markets which have floundered in contrast to their supposed hotspot status of 2012 - Moranbah, Dysart, Emerald, Bowen, Chinchilla, Roma, and Gladstone, to name but a few - so in this context the relatively moderate uptick in lending commitments at the state level can be no surprise.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed the figures conversely augur well for housing market activity across the Greater Brisbane area given that the original data for Queensland in September showed solid total owner-occupier lending of $3.44 billion, taking lending volumes up to a 67 month high on a 12mMA basis.</div>
<br><div>As for the New South Wales figures in September, there has never been a month of home lending like it in Australia, with the original data busting out a +46.2% year-on-year increase in the value of lending to an astonishing $8.55 billion.</div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Investor lending cools: Pete Wargent

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<p>Lending finance data for August 2015 was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). </p>
<p>The latest data paired with the previously released housing finance commitments data shows that lending to investors has slowed sharply over recent months following the regulatory changes from APRA and the subsequent changes to lending policies from most mortgage lenders.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/13/Chart-13.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/10/13/Chart-13.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>The above chart shows the proportion of new lending to investors across each state and territory in August 2015.  Note that when we say new lending we exclude refinances as they are not associated with a new purchase of property.  New South Wales had the greatest proportion of new lending to investors over the month however, we have seen lending to this segment of the market slow across each state and territory.</span></p>
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<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/13/Chart-22.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
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<p>Mortgage lending to investors peaked in May 2015 prior to most Australian ADI’s implementing changes to lending policies relating to investment mortgages.  At that time, the proportion of new lending to investors was much higher in each state and territory than it is currently.  In each state and territory there has been a significant decline in the value of new lending to investors between May and August of this year.  Across each state and territory the magnitude of the fall in investor lending has been recorded at: -10.5% in NSW, -14.0% in Vic, -15.2% in Qld, -17.0% in SA, -10.1% in WA, -10.0% in Tas, -35.6% in NT and -23.5% in ACT.</p>
<p>While new lending to investors has fallen away over recent months, there has been a rise in new lending to owner occupiers across some states and territories while others have seen falls across owner occupier lending too.  Between May 2015 and August 2015 the changes in the value of new lending to owner occupiers have been recorded at: +22.1% in NSW, +16.5% in Vic, +4.2% in Qld, +4.1% in SA, -2.4% in WA, -8.3% in Tas, -8.1% in NT and -10.8% in ACT.</p>
<p>As investor lending is slowing in NSW and Vic, lending to owner occupiers is generally picking-up which should help offset some of the slowdown in investment loans.  Elsewhere there has been no significant increase in owner occupier lending, or owner occupier lending has fallen; given this the data release may point to ongoing weaker housing market conditions outside of the two most populous states.</p>
<p>It’s important to note that this data only includes mortgage lending domestically.  What is not clear is to what extent the weakness in investor demand domestically over recent months is being offset by an uptick in demand from overseas.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Sharp dip in investor housing demand since May: Cameron Kusher

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<p>Policies seeking to increase home buyers’ purchasing power when supply is insufficient will serve only to drive up prices and reduce housing affordability, according to the Australian Bankers Association Inc (ABA).</p>
<p>"The buying power of most home purchasers is determined ultimately by the amount of money they can borrow. </p>
<p>"The average loan size is now $357,500 or 8.7%higher over the past year, and not surprisingly the highest on record."</p>
<p>Finance providers are maintaining high lending standards, claimed ABA in the submission to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"The proportion of new loan approvals to high LVR borrowers, i.e. LVRs more than 90% has fallen since 2009 for all borrowers and remains below 10% for investor loans.</span></p>
<p>"Low doc loans have fallen to very low levels for both owner-occupiers and investors. The proportion of interest only loans has been gradually rising since 2009, with investors showing a greater propensity to use this form of financing compared with owner-occupiers. The share of housing loans which are impaired has been falling since 2011." </p>
<p>Australia needs to progressively increase its housing stock to shelter its growing population. </p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"Over the year ending September 2014 Australia’s population is estimated to have increased by 354,600.Of this, 150,700 was natural increase and 203,900 was net overseas migration. </span></p>
<p>"There is a danger that policy prescriptions that seek to address issues in particular markets – such as excess demand in Sydney and Melbourne – but which are applied across the nation may have unintended consequences in other areas of Australia where such issues are less pressing or absent." </p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">ABA believes that there is significant opportunity for reform in policies to increase land release for housing construction. </span></p>
<p>"The supply side of the housing industry is now beginning to lift. Approvals to build new dwellings have been trending up since mid-2012 and over the year to April 2015, 214,000 approvals were issued for the construction of dwellings. </p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Building approvals </span></p>
<p>"The close relationship between interest rates and housing construction approvals does not mean that interest rates can be used as a policy tool to address issues of housing shortages. </p>
<p>"Interest rates influence the short term cycles in construction, but do nothing to address the longer term structural imbalance between demand and supply."</p>
<p>In terms of structural issues a persistent complaint is that development is hindered by a shortage of green field sites, reflecting insufficient land release by state governments, and by excessively restrictive council regulations and developer levies. </p>
<p>"Demographia supports the assertion that higher land prices are a major factor and that a key reason for expensive land is inadequate release of new land for development." </p>
<p>Around two thirds of households own or are purchasing their home and about one third are renting. Australia’s home ownership rate is around the middle of many of its peers in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). </p>
<p>"More recent data on housing finance commitments suggests that investors are increasing their share of the housing stock. This is not a uniform trend across Australia but is particularly marked in Sydney and to a lesser extent in Melbourne."</p>
<p>Banks are the predominant suppliers of finance for housing in Australia and housing loans comprise the major part of most banks’ assets. </p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"Loans outstanding for the purchase and construction of houses total $1.46 trillion. Of this, banks lend $1.35 trillion, with the remainder spread among building societies, credit unions and finance companies. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/10/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-10%20at%201.21.51%20PM.png" target="_blank"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="/images/2015/09/10/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-10%20at%201.21.51%20PM.png" alt="" width="533" height="434"> </span></p>
<p>"Housing loans comprise 62 per cent of the total lending assets of banks and about two- thirds are loans to owner-occupiers and the remaining third to investors. </p>
<p>"Over the past two years or so the growth rate [of borrowing for housing] has gradually accelerated and has now reached 7.2 per cent over the year ending April 2015. </p>
<p>"The growth rate over recent months has been the highest since late 2010, but it is well below the average rate of growth in the pre GFC era. The last historical high point was in March 2004 at almost 22 per cent."</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/10/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-10%20at%201.23.32%20PM.png" target="_blank"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="/images/2015/09/10/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-10%20at%201.23.32%20PM.png" alt="" width="421" height="287"> </span></p>
<p>Interest rates on home loans are at multi-generational lows. The average advertised standard variable mortgage rate was 5.45 per cent in May 2015, the lowest since 1968. </p>
<p>"Today’s discounted rate is even lower at less than 5 per cent. These low rates compare to the 17 per cent peak recorded between June 1989 and March 1990.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"These low rates charged to home borrowers are in part a reflection of the intense competitive environment faced by bank and non-bank lenders. Mostly however, they are a product of the globally low interest rate environment. The RBA’s cash rate was reduced to 2.00 per cent in May 2015 - the lowest in a generation. </span></p>
<p>"Interest rates on fixed rate loans are also very low at below 5 per cent. The proportion of loans which are fixed rate is now falling. Around 10 per cent of new loans are fixed rate, which is about half the proportion in 2013. </p>
<p>"Household finances are in good shape. Dwellings are the single largest component of household wealth at $5.1 trillion, with superannuation at $1.9 trillion. </p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"The ratio of housing debt-to-housing assets is around 28 per cent, with every $1 of debt being matched by over $3 in house value."</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Although households are increasing their borrowings for housing, they are also prepaying their loans to a greater degree. As a result of this, households are now on average the equivalent of 28 months, or more than two years, ahead on their mortgage repayments </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">A change in the mix of property taxes away from stamp duty, and with greater emphasis on land tax would likely improve turnover in the housing market, improving the efficiency of the use of the existing stock of housing</span></p>
<p>The ABA supports the recommendation of the Committee (recommendation 9.70) that Treasury should prepare and publish a study on the influence of negative gearing on the housing market.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">ABA also believes there is not enough evidence to support that current CGT arrangements combined with negative gearing encourage speculative investment as deductions are made at the taxpayers’ marginal tax rate, but gains are taxed at half of that rate. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"Removal of stamp duty on housing transactions would simplify taxation arrangements. It would improve efficiency by increasing the level of beneficial transactions and by improving the allocation of resources. </span></p>
<p>"Abolishing stamp duty would result in a more efficient allocation of housing, as it would no longer act as a barrier to downsizing or moving to a more suitable property. It would also cease to act as a barrier to workers seeking to move for better employment opportunities. </p>
<p>"An abolition of stamp duty would be expected to result in an increase in property values, particularly in an environment of constrained supply. </p>
<p>"For banks this would improve (reduce) the LVRs of existing borrowers, with a concomitant reduction in the riskiness of the existing housing book. It would lift the effective available deposits for new borrowers although the effect of this on improved housing affordability may be offset by higher purchase prices. </p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"Land tax is a more efficient form of property tax than stamp duties, particularly when it is broad-based. </span></p>
<p>"Broadening the scope of land taxes provides an opportunity to lower the rate of tax. </p>
<p>The revenue implications of changing the rate of land tax vary markedly depending on its scope. </p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"The only argument in favour of higher rates of land tax is to increase government revenue. Due to the low excess burden of land tax, changing the rate of land tax to increase government revenue would be one of the least distortional methods to boost receipts. </span></p>
<p>"However, a change in rate by itself does not address the issues of complexity or fairness."</p>
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Finance providers maintaining high lending standards: ABA

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p><span>As always, a plethora of information on lending for housing-related purposes. The headline number, which is the value of total lending over July, rose by 1.5%. The detail reveals that loans to owner-occupiers (O-Os) rose by 2.2% and loans to investors were 0.5% higher. </span></p>
<p><span>O-Os: There has been pretty reasonable growth in lending to O-Os over the past year. By value lending is up 14.0% through the year and by number it’s up 3.9%. The difference between the two largely reflects the strong lift in dwelling prices which means that the average loan size has risen quite 5 solidly. Today’s data shows that the average new loan size for an O-O was 365k in July – up 9.8% through the year. Clearly, interest rate cuts have helped contribute to a lift in average loan size because the capacity to borrow rises when borrowing costs fall.</span></p>
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<p><span>Investors: For much of the past two years, lending to investors has been the dominant driver of housing-related lending growth. </span></p>
<p><span>But in the last few months lending to investors has cooled a little. It’s still early days, but there are some tentative signs that some of the measures introduced by a number of banks to slow investor-related lending growth are having the desired impact. A gradual decline in rental yields is also playing its part in moderating the rate of lending growth to investors. We expect this trend to continue over coming months. </span></p>
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<p> </p>
<p><span>Construction: Total lending for dwelling-related construction fell slightly over July to leave annual growth at 12.9%. The solid growth in construction lending mirrors the lift in building approvals and residential construction surge currently underway. This story still has a way to run and the latest building approvals data shows that the pipeline of residential construction to come is deep. Dwelling construction generates jobs and the multiplier effect benefits other sectors of the economy. It will also help to alleviate some of the supply/demand imbalances in the property market, particularly in Sydney where dwelling prices have been running riot. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">States: The data on O-Os by State in July shows that annual growth in the number of loans is strongest in NSW (+11.0%), followed by QLD (+4.3%) and Vic (+3.6%). Unsurprisingly, the capital cities of these States have had the strongest house price growth over the past year. Other State results were Tas (+2.0%), SA (+0.4%) and WA (-6.8%). An update on lending to investors by State will be in Friday’s Lending Finance publication.</span></p>
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<p><span>First home buyers: The number of loans to first home buyers fell by 1.0% in July to be down 1.1% through the year. First home buyers represent just 15.4% of all dwellings financed – close to record lows. </span></p>
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<p><span><em><span>Gareth Aird is e</span><span>conomist at Commonwealth Bank and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/gareth-aird/14/790/905" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></em></span></p>
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Housing-related lending up in July: Gareth Aird

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<div class="column"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">GUEST OBSERVER</span></div>
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<div class="column"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The latest economic data highlights the balancing acts being played out in the Australian economy. Mining is in transition from booming investment activity to the production phase of the cycle. As a result mining profits and sales fell in the latest quarter. But while mining profits are retreating, profits in other parts of the economy are rising, in fact hitting record highs.</span></div>
<div class="column"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></div>
<div class="column"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">There is also the balancing act in the housing sector. Financial authorities want to see less frothy growth in investor housing lending, but at the same time want to maintain lending growth in business and owner-occupier home lending. The good news is that this is also happening.</span></div>
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<div class="column"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">So from the Reserve Bank’s standpoint there is nothing to do but to monitor the transitions to ensure that the process moves as smoothly as possible. </span></div>
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<p style="line-height: 1.3em;"><strong><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">What do the figures show?</span></strong></p>
<p style="line-height: 1.3em;"><strong><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">B</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">usiness indicators</span></strong></p>
<p style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Company operating profits </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">fell for the fifth straight quarter, dropping by 1.9 per cent in the June quarter. Profits fell in 10 of the 15 industry groups. Profits fell by 9.9 per cent in </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Mining, </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">fell by 0.8 per cent in </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Manufacturing </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">and fell by 4.7 per cent in </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Construction. </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">But profits rose by 3.3 per cent in </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Retail Trade.</span></p>
<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">In the year to June (2014/15 year)</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">, profits totalled $255.8 billion, down 5.4 per cent over the year and the biggest annual decline in just over two years. Non-mining profits rose by 2.2 per cent to a record $184.7 billion in 2014/15.</span>
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<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Unincorporated gross operating profits </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">actually rose by 5.1 per cent in the June quarter after rising by 6.8 per cent in the March quarter. </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Business gross operating profits  </span></span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">fell by 0.9 per cent in the June quarter after rising 0.6 per cent in the March quarter. </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Company profits before tax </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">fell by 11.3 per cent in the June quarter after rising 13.7 per cent in the March quarter.</span>
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<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Inventories </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">rose by less than 0.1 per cent in the June quarter after rising by 0.6 per cent in the March quarter. Inventories rose in </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Manufacturing </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">(up 0.9 per cent) and in </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Electricity, gas, water and waste services </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">(up by 2.6 per cent). Inventories fell in </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Mining </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">(down by 0.3 per cent), </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Wholesale Trade </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">(down 0.4 per cent) and in both </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Accommodation &amp; food services </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">and </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Retail Trade </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">(both down by 0.2 per cent).</span>
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<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Sales rose in 8 of the 15 industry sectors in the June quarter</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">. Sales rose the most in </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Transport, postal and warehousing </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">(up 3.1 per cent) followed by </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Rental, hiring and real estate services </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">(up 2.6 per cent). Sales fell most in </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Mining </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">(down 2.5 per cent) and </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Construction </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">(down 0.8 per cent).</span>
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<br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The value of all sales by industry </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">fell for only the first time in nine quarters, down by 0.2 per cent in real terms in the June quarter to be 1.4 per cent higher than a year ago. In the March quarter sales were growing at the fastest pace in 31⁄2 years.</span>
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<br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">In current prices, sales </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">rose in five states and territories in the June quarter: NSW &amp; Queensland (both up 1.5 per cent), Tasmania (up 1.1 per cent) and Victoria &amp; South Australia (both up 1.0 per cent).</span>
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<br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Sales fell </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">in Western Australia (down by 3.7 per cent), ACT (down by 1.1 per cent) and Northern Territory (down 0.4 per cent).</span>
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<br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Wages &amp; salaries </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">rose by 1.1 per cent in the June quarter to be up 1.6 per cent over the year, weaker than the 2.3 per cent annual growth in the Wage Price Index.</span>
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<div class="column"><strong><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Private sector credit</span></strong></div>
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<br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Private sector credit (lending) </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">rose by 0.6 per cent in July after a 0.4 per cent gain in June. Annual credit growth</span><br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">rose from 5.9 per cent to 6.1 per cent.</span>
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<br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Housing credit </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">grew by 0.6 per cent in July after a similar rise in June. Housing credit is up 7.4 per cent on a year ago – the strongest annual growth since October 2010.</span>
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<br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Owner occupier housing </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">credit rose by 0.5 per cent in July to stand 5.3 per cent higher than a year ago – the fastest annual growth since April 2012. </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Investor housing </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">finance lifted 0.6 per cent in July – the slowest growth in almost two years (equal the rate in October 2013). Investor housing credit was up by 10.8 per cent over the year, down from 11.1 per cent annual growth in June.</span>
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<br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Personal credit </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">was unchanged in July after rising 0.3 per cent in June. Personal credit was up 0.9 per cent over the year.</span>
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<br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Business credit </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">rose by 0.7 per cent in July – the biggest rise in six months. Business credit is 4.8 per cent higher than a year ago.</span>
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<br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Term deposits </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">held with banks rose for the first time in six months, up by $4.7 billion in July to $511.3 billion. But term deposits are down 5.0 per cent on a year ago – the sharpest decline in 12 years. Term deposits have been regularly falling in annual terms for 20 months – the longest period in records going back almost 30 years.</span><br><p style="line-height: 1.3em;"><strong>What is the importance of the economic data?</strong></p>
<p><span>The quarterly </span><span>Business Indicators </span><span>publication by the Bureau of Statistics contains measures such as inventories, company profits and income from sales. Higher inventory (stock) levels can be either intentional or unintentional. If stocks are low and sales are expected to rise in the future, businesses will seek to build up stocks. However an unintentional build-up in stocks is where sales fall short of expectations, leaving more goods on the shelves than desired. If profits are increasing then this may point to increased capital spending and employment in the future. Rising profits are also a sign of favourable business conditions. </span></p>
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<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Private sector credit </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">figures are released by the Reserve Bank on the last working day of the month. Credit is separated into three categories – housing, other personal and business. Private sector credit is effectively the amount of loans outstanding in the economy. If growth in lending is strong then it suggests that credit from financial institutions is freely available, underlying demand for assets such as cars and houses is firm and that the price of credit (interest rates) is attractive.</span>
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<br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Housing Industry Association </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">releases data on the </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">sales of new homes </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">each month. The HIA collects the data each month from a sample of Australia's largest 100 home builders. The survey covers around 14 per cent of the home building industry.</span>
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<br><strong><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">New home sales</span></strong>
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<br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">New home sales fell by 0.4 per cent in July. Sales of multi-units fell by 4.2 per cent while detached house sales rose by 0.7 per cent.</span>
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<br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The Housing Industry Association reported: </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">“In the month of July 2015 detached house sales increased by 4.2 per cent in New South Wales. Detached house sales fell by 2.3 per cent in Victoria and by 4.9 per cent in Western Australia. Sales were close to flat for the month in Queensland (-0.6 per cent) and South Australia (-0.2 per cent).</span>
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<br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The annual peak for detached house sales has passed. Over the three months to July this year detached house sales fell by 2.8 per cent to be 3.4 per cent lower when compared to the three months to July 2014.</span>
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<div class="column">'<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Multi-unit’ sales peaked in May this year and fell by 4.2 per cent in July following a decline of 2.9 per cent in June. Over the three months to July this year multi-unit sales increased by 8.3 per cent, but it was the strength of the May result that drove the quarterly outcome.</span>
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<div class="column"><strong><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</span></strong></div>
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<br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The Australian economy is evolving as best as can be expected. There is no need for the Reserve Bank to either lift rates or cut rates in the current environment.</span>
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<div class="column"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Our review of the profit-reporting season showed that Corporate Australia remains in good shape. While profits are understandably down in mining and engineering sectors, they are up in consumer and housing-dependent areas. Bottom-line earnings are generally improving despite the fact that a large number of companies have taken the opportunity of favourable financials to write down the value of assets such as intangibles.</span></div>
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<br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Over the last seven years the Australian economy has experienced the biggest structural swings in a century. Mining investment and prices soared; resource prices retreated; mining investment was completed; mining production has ramped up to record highs; interest rates fell to record lows; and home building approvals hit record highs. Major swings and transitions have already occurred and the process is a long way from over.</span>
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<br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The Reserve Bank can feel justifiably happy about how the process has gone so far. </span>
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<div class="column"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span><em>Craig James</em></span><em> is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</em></span></div>
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Investor home lending slows: Craig James

Banking on housing: APRA's Wayne Byres

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">GUEST OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The minutes of the RBA August board meeting revealed a marginally more positive tone to the commentary. Given that the Board meeting pre-dates the release of the comprehensive Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP), </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">they don’t provide </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">significantly new detail, but </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">the tone suggests that interest rates are firmly on hold.</span></p>
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<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Does this mean the Bank has moved to ‘neutral’? We don’t really think so. </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Whil</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">e the RBA is certainly wishing and hoping that it won’t have to cut rates again, </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">over the next 18 months there is still a greater risk of a further cut in the cash rate than a hike.</span><br><p style="line-height: 1.3em;">The points of interest in the minutes were:</p>
<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The Board noted that downside risks to the outlook for China growth have receded. The improvement in housing markets and stimulatory policy steps taken were noted. Keep in mind though that the meeting pre-dates the release of the patch of very weak data last week (especially for exports) as well as the devaluation of the RMB.</span><br><p style="line-height: 1.3em;">On the domestic economy, the minutes had a decidedly ‘glass half full’ feel about them, despite the fact that the forecasts presented to the board included a downgrade for GDP forecasts. They noted the improvement in labour market outcomes, and were relatively positive about consumption noting that “the most recent data on retail sales and liaison information were consistent with the momentum in consumption growth being sustained”.</p>
<p style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The minutes also noted the improvement in business conditions, but highlighted the fact that the pick-up was concentrated in household and business services, which are generally less capital intensive than goods-related sectors.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">On the currency, the minutes reiterated the points made by Governor Glenn Stevens in a recent speech and the SoMP, that the lower exchange rate was supporting net services exports</span></p>
<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Board members discussed APRA’s measures targeting investor hou</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">sing lending, but noted that it was too early to gauge the impact</span>
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<div class="column"><em><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Felicity Emmett co-head of Australian economics, ANZ Research and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/felicity-emmett/5a/3ba/256" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></em></div>
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The RBA's 'glass half full' outlook: ANZ's Felicity Emmett

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<div>The Lending Finance data released yesterday for the month of June 2015.</div>
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<div>Total lending was once again superficially very strong at a seasonally adjusted $74.7 billion for the month.<br><br>While this was only a moderate increase for the month, on a rolling annual basis total lending has increased to a new high of $857 billion.</div>
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<div>Note that the "commercial loans" category includes property investment loans, so the recovery in credit growth is rather more housing-focused than first it may appear.</div>
<p><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hLjERfYhiNk/VcgOlQzorcI/AAAAAAAAXg4/GdmpPCJx3a4/s1600/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
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<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">nvestor loans - Sydney investor credit explodes</span></strong><br><br></p>
<div>Drilling into the commercial lending figures we can see that the property investment loans by state data is telling. </div>
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<div>Up until the month of June, while the investor loan crackdown by the regulator APRA may have had an impact in aggregate, investor lending in Sydney was still rising fast.</div>
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<div>In fact, New South Wales investor loans accelerated in June to a record $6.55 billion to record a rolling annual total of an astounding $64.9 billion.</div>
<p><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Abb1wPadxP0/VcgOkqurF_I/AAAAAAAAXgs/o7VArJh790s/s1600/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
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<div>Thus while investor lending growth in aggregate had begun to slow by June, Sydney investors are now sitting on deep pools of equity following years of strong capital growth and this equity can often be used as 20 per cent deposits.<br><br>As a result as this stage investor loans may have been more impacted in other capital cities and regional centres where capital growth has been much weaker or in many cases non-existent.</div>
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<div>My information is that we should start to see investor loans slowing in the July and particularly August figures.</div>
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<div>However, as I looked at last week, the housing finance data also shows that owner-occupier commitments in New South Wales have now responded to low interest rates in booming to a record high $6.6 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis in June.</div>
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<div>Housing markets are the sum of their parts and therefore below I have charted the raw unadjusted "Original" data for New South Wales in a stacked columnar format.</div>
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<div>As you can see in the chart below, the month of June was by a significant margin the biggest month of lending on record for any state in Australia's history.<br><br>
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<span>A couple of observations here.</span><br><br><div>Firstly, note that the ABS Lending Finance data series records loans written domestically, suggesting that the boom in Sydney dwelling prices has been primarily driven by domestic investors (and now homebuyers).</div>
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<div>That said, foreign capital is playing its part to some extent too, as I've written here previously, particularly relating to new dwellings.</div>
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<br>Recall that foreign buyers without Australian residency are generally granted permission to buy new residential property.</div>
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<div>Foreign buyers with no Australian residency typically cannot buy established residential property unless they have specific permission to do so from the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB).</div>
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<div>This permission may be granted in some instances, such as for development projects.</div>
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<div>Licensed real estate agents, buyers agents and solicitors have simple procedures in place to ensure that they only deal with legal purchasers of established property.</div>
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<br>As the above chart clearly shows there is more than enough domestic business from Australian residents without needing to seek business from buyers without Australian residency. </div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Around the states</span></strong><br><br><div>As noted above New South Wales investor loans accelerated in June to a new high of $6.5 billion in June. </div>
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<div>On a 12mMA basis investor loans in New South Wales rose to a record high $5.4 billion.</div>
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<br><div>Low interest rates and expectations of future price growth have also impacted investor loans in Victoria. </div>
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<div>It's impossible to call the market peak accurately, but it's my belief that - unlike Sydney - Melbourne has been overbuilding in the unit and apartment market in particular, and this will result in stagnant rents and prices in due course for certain sectors of the market. </div>
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<div>There may be a material price correction in time too, especially for new and off-the-plan builds.</div>
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<br><div>Queensland's resources regions and regional centres may be struggling as the mining investment boom turns to bust, but house prices are now rising in inner Brisbane.</div>
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<div>For my money, Brisbane may well be the best performing capital city housing market in 2016, although asset selection will be important here (there is much high-density building taking place).</div>
<div>The trendline below which records investor loans on a 12mMA basis shows that Queensland investor lending in aggregate is now tracking at their highest level since April 2008.</div>
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<div class="separator">Western Australia's property markets are now demonstrably into their downturn phase, and consequently despite low interest rates investor loans volumes are trending down.</div>
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<div class="separator">Some property experts have painted themselves into a corner with regards to South Australia and will continue to recommend investing there come hell of high water.</div>
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<div class="separator">With very little building activity in the detached housing sector the Adelaide market has certainly been tightening nicely, yields are comparatively strong, and after 7 or 8 years of weak dwelling price growth there is plenty of value of money to be found, even close to the centre of Adelaide.  </div>
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<div class="separator">On a 12mMA basis investor loans in South Australia are now tracking at their highest ever level at $437 million.</div>
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<div class="separator">A word of warning, however,</div>
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<div class="separator">Barely a week passes without further news of redundancies in South Australia, with the unemployment rate having trended up alarmingly from 5.2 per cent in October 2011 to 7.9 per cent today...and rising.</div>
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<div class="separator">In fact, if you have a low budget, my personal belief is that a combination of foreign capital, a n ongoing depreciation of the Aussie dollar, record Chinese tourism spend and a tightening market will see Hobart emerge as the surprise package capital city housing market over the short term.</div>
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<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-52HagQS2jvg/VcgWP183naI/AAAAAAAAXhs/SA2l0ue8a6g/s1600/A8.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-52HagQS2jvg/VcgWP183naI/AAAAAAAAXhs/SA2l0ue8a6g/s1600/A8.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-52HagQS2jvg/VcgWP183naI/AAAAAAAAXhs/SA2l0ue8a6g/s640/A8.jpg" width="640" height="288"></a></div>
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<div class="separator"><span>The longer term economic and demographic fundamentals in Tasmania are admittedly uncertain.</span></div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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