<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-2" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:9894702f-d5ab-4186-930d-8f794421c3c4-0" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:9894702f-d5ab-4186-930d-8f794421c3c4-0" dir="auto">
<p data-end="437" data-start="182"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/doma-group">DOMA Group</a> has unveiled plans for Newcastle Quay, a major waterfront precinct set to reshape Newcastle’s harbourfront and further cement the city’s evolution into one of Australia’s fastest-growing urban destinations.</p>

<p data-end="707" data-start="439">Positioned on a prominent site within the Honeysuckle Precinct, Newcastle Quay will span both sides of Honeysuckle Drive, connecting directly to the Foreshore Promenade and sitting within walking distance of Newcastle Interchange.</p>

<p data-end="1068" data-start="709">The mixed-use precinct is planned to include around 1,000 apartments, more than 28,000 sqm of commercial office space, 6,000 sqm of retail, and a 180-room hotel anchored by a 500-seat conference and exhibition centre, a move expected to significantly lift Newcastle’s ability to attract major business and tourism events.</p>
</section>

<p><img alt="DOMA Group unveil Newcastle’s future with transformative Newcastle Quay Precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0642ca09-67cc-4920-8a7e-d18df9729b4e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/%3D.png?VersionId=CnDmZxQnOV5LN0ePu7jaFBXC9tPGTrWm" /></p>

<p data-end="1381" data-start="1070">The proposal builds on DOMA’s growing Newcastle pipeline, where the developer has already delivered 866 apartments and more than 19,000 sqm of commercial and retail space since entering the market in 2013. A further $2 billion pipeline is also in the works across the city.</p>

<p data-end="1756" data-start="1383">The masterplan and executive architecture are led by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, with building concepts developed alongside Stewart Architecture, Architecture AND and Curious Practice, and landscape design by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/turf-design">Turf Design Studio</a>. More than 11,000 sqm of open space is planned, including a new waterfront park known as Honeysuckle Green, upgrades to Tree of Knowledge Park, and new pedestrian and cycling links throughout the precinct.</p>

<p data-end="2022" data-start="1758">At the centre of the development will be the heritage-listed Wickham School of Arts, which DOMA plans to reposition as the civic and cultural heart of the precinct through restaurants, bars, events and public gathering spaces.</p>

<p data-end="2254" data-start="2024">The broader vision is to create a genuine day-to-night precinct, blending residential, hospitality, retail, commercial and cultural uses in a way Newcastle has yet to experience at this scale.</p>

<p data-end="2407" data-start="2256">DOMA Group Managing Director Jure Domazet said the aim was to create a precinct that becomes synonymous with Newcastle itself.</p>

<p data-end="2644" data-start="2409">“Our vision is to create a precinct that not only delivers high-quality commercial, residential, and cultural spaces, but also defines Newcastle’s waterfront for generations to come,” Domazet said.</p>

<p data-end="2752" data-start="2646">DOMA’s Chris Farrington said the project would fundamentally change how Newcastle is perceived nationally.</p>

<p data-end="2868" data-start="2754">“Newcastle Quay is more than a waterfront precinct, it is a national announcement for this city,” Farrington said.</p>

<p data-end="3111" data-start="2870">“A world-class Conference and Exhibition Centre will open Newcastle and the Hunter Region to a national and international audience for the first time, delivering something this city has long deserved.”</p>

<p data-end="3360" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="3113">The project is expected to generate more than 4,000 full-time equivalent jobs and act as a major economic driver for the Hunter region through tourism, business events, hospitality and commercial investment.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Minister for Planning and Public Spaces Paul Scully said the final parcel of harbourfront land will be a "true mixed-use precinct destination that includes housing, hospitality and entertainment, commercial spaces, retail, economic and social outcomes."</p>


Joel Robinson

DOMA Group unveils 1,000-apartment Newcastle Quay precinct

<p data-end="262" data-start="143">ASX-listed developer Stockland is continuing to ramp up its return to the apartment market.</p>

<p data-end="451" data-start="264">In late 2024, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/stockland">Stockland</a> announced it would resume apartment development after a 13-year absence, launching with Stanton Place in Rosebery, a 144-apartment project now under construction.</p>

<p data-end="560" data-start="453">Last week, the developer unveiled plans alongside the NSW Government for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-nsw-gov-unveils-plans-for-3-300-home-waterloo-south-renewal">3,300-home precinct in Waterloo</a>.</p>

<p data-end="797" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="562">Now, Stockland has shifted its focus in St Leonards, lodging a State Significant Development Application (SSDA) to replace an approved 42-storey office tower with a 52-storey residential development comprising more than 500 apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="Stockland" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8979095e-9072-432b-a7da-58b180cf994d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-20%20at%204.27.36%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=_jbRXYOafCSHjwsz.yQCNIymMyCj8zkF" /></p>

<p>An existing 14-storey commercial office building would make way for a 264.5-metre tower designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bates-smart">Bates Smart</a>. The project would deliver 538 apartments, including 30 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses at the podium and ground plane.</p>

<p>It will rise from&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">601 Pacific Highway</a>, a prominent 2,844 sqm triangular site adjoining Mitchell Plaza and fronting Pacific Highway.</p>

<p>The development is being pursued under the Housing Delivery Authority pathway after Stockland’s proposal was declared State Significant Development earlier this year.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Stockland plans 52-storey mixed-use tower with 538 apartments in St Leonards" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="67f40f35-0458-47ab-80c0-a4e98a31838a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/stockland%201.png?VersionId=rxXe3njr.auuGDuiR0k42uI8Zr4K.gZA" /></p>

<p>The apartment mix includes 217 one-bedroom apartments, 191 two-bedroom apartments, 122 three-bedroom apartments, and eight four-bedroom residences. Six basement levels would accommodate 300 car spaces, bicycle parking, loading areas, and building services.</p>

<p>Bates Smart said the project has been shaped around a series of urban design principles intended to improve the pedestrian experience and respond to the evolving character of St Leonards.</p>

<p>“With a boundary length of almost 75m along Pacific Highway and 70m along Atchison Street to the north, complying simply with the LEP envelope and required setbacks would result in a very wide tower form on the skyline,” the architects noted in the Design Report.</p>

<p>“We propose breaking the tower form into two defined volumes rather than a singular form.”</p>

<p>The podium has similarly been articulated into separate forms to reduce perceived bulk and create a finer-grain response to Mitchell Plaza and Atchison Street. Retail tenancies would activate the lower levels, while commercial space is proposed across the podium floors.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Stockland plans 52-storey mixed-use tower with 538 apartments in St Leonards" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="90149990-0551-40d2-bd48-14b69a015d12" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/stockland%202.png?VersionId=MJC2KIIWFvU9FPGr3IVq09gkRN_gX3m8" /></p>

<p>The design also places a significant emphasis on communal amenity and environmental performance. Residents would have access to landscaped terraces, wellness areas, flexible workspaces, and rooftop communal facilities, while the all-electric building is targeting an average 7-star NatHERS rating. Bates Smart said the project incorporates passive design measures including natural ventilation, integrated shading, and lightweight façade systems.</p>

<p>Planning documents note the site is around 350 metres from St Leonards Station and 400 metres from the metro entrance, placing it within one of Sydney’s most connected emerging residential precincts.</p>

<p>The project arrives amid a wave of large-scale redevelopment proposals reshaping the St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline. Several nearby sites have recently been approved, lodged, or declared under the Housing Delivery Authority pathway as the precinct absorbs significant residential density uplift tied to transit-oriented development policies.</p>

<p><img alt="Stockland" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7805bd7c-dfd7-4b35-8e15-ec4a8bf8e61b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-20%20at%204.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=iY12K2m2bQ6EeDnshqfZC9rbLx_oEugP" /></p>

<p>Bates Smart’s report describes St Leonards as transitioning away from its historical commercial identity toward a more mixed-use urban environment.</p>

<p>“In recent years, the character of St Leonards has started to evolve, driven by new development trends along the Pacific Highway corridor,” the report said.</p>

<p>“These projects have increasingly focused on residential accommodation, marking a shift from its purely commercial roots.”</p>

<p>Sekisui House Australia is currently selling Waterstone down near Newlands Park, in a pocket being branded "St Leonards South." Hyecorp recently completed Audrey in the same pocket.</p>


First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower

<p data-end="186" data-start="128">ANZ believes the Reserve Bank is in no rush to move again.</p>

<p data-end="441" data-start="188">Following the release of the May Monetary Policy Board Minutes, ANZ has taken the view that the RBA is now firmly in a holding pattern, with the cumulative impact of previous rate hikes giving the Board scope to assess how the economy evolves from here.</p>

<p data-end="508" data-start="443">That positioning, in ANZ’s view, makes a June rate hike unlikely.</p>

<p data-end="680" data-start="510">The bank continues to expect the cash rate to remain unchanged at 4.35 per cent for an extended period, with the RBA adopting what is effectively a wait-and-see approach.</p>

<p data-end="1015" data-start="682">The Minutes point to a Board that sees financial conditions as already restrictive, but without a clear read on just how restrictive they are. That uncertainty has shifted the focus away from immediate policy action and toward monitoring both domestic conditions and global developments, particularly the conflict in the Middle East.</p>

<p data-end="1098" data-start="1017">As ANZ interprets it, the Board is deliberately avoiding strong forward guidance.</p>

<p data-end="1345" data-start="1100">Instead, it is allowing itself flexibility, acknowledging that monetary policy has limited ability to influence the near-term trajectory of inflation, while also recognising that economic growth is likely to remain below potential for some time.</p>

<p data-end="1436" data-start="1347">Despite that pause in momentum, ANZ notes that the Board still carries a tightening bias.</p>

<p data-end="1678" data-start="1438">The Minutes reveal that, in weighing up its decision, the Board seriously considered another 25 basis point increase. The key debate centred on the trade-off between inflation and activity, particularly in the context of global uncertainty.</p>

<p data-end="1755" data-start="1680">Ultimately, most members leaned toward the inflation side of that equation.</p>

<p data-end="2082" data-start="1757">Underlying inflation is still expected to remain above target for an extended period, regardless of how external risks evolve. That has led to a view within the Board that the risks to its inflation objective have increased, and that the current cash rate may not be sufficiently restrictive to fully contain those pressures.</p>

<p data-end="2101" data-start="2084">That’s important.</p>

<p data-end="2239" data-start="2103">While the decision, for now, is to hold, the underlying tone of the Minutes suggests the door to further tightening has not been closed.</p>

<p data-end="2597" data-start="2241">ANZ also points to commentary from Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter, who highlighted the risk that inflation could pass through the economy more quickly and broadly than in previous cycles. Both Hunter and a majority of the Board expressed concern that inflation expectations could become less anchored after such a prolonged period above target.</p>

<p data-end="2733" data-start="2599">That combination, persistent inflation and the risk of expectations shifting, is what continues to underpin the RBA’s cautious stance.</p>

<p data-end="2807" data-start="2735">However, where ANZ diverges from the RBA is on the outlook for activity.</p>

<p data-end="3152" data-start="2809">The Board appears relatively comfortable with current spending patterns, effectively downplaying recent declines in business and consumer sentiment. It notes that sentiment has historically been only weakly correlated with actual spending, and that feedback from its liaison program has not yet pointed to a meaningful slowdown in consumption.</p>

<p data-end="3176" data-start="3154">ANZ is less convinced.</p>

<p data-end="3464" data-start="3178">The bank believes the link between household disposable income, sentiment and spending is more direct than the RBA is currently acknowledging. With inflation continuing to erode real incomes, ANZ expects household spending to soften more materially than the central bank is forecasting.</p>

<p data-end="3528" data-start="3466">That divergence matters because it shifts the balance of risk.</p>

<p data-end="3740" data-start="3530">If activity weakens more than expected, the trade-off between inflation and growth changes. In ANZ’s view, that would reduce the need for further tightening and reinforce the case for the RBA to remain on hold.</p>

<p data-end="3855" data-start="3742">It also suggests that the current policy setting may already be doing more work than the Board fully appreciates.</p>

<p data-end="3945" data-start="3857">The broader takeaway from ANZ’s interpretation is that the RBA is walking a narrow path.</p>

<p data-end="4135" data-start="3947">On one side sits the risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected. On the other is the growing pressure on households and the potential for a sharper slowdown in activity.</p>

<p data-end="4176" data-start="4137">For now, the Board is choosing to wait.</p>

<p data-end="4286" data-start="4178">But it is a pause that still carries an underlying tightening bias, rather than a clear pivot toward easing.</p>

<p data-end="4423" data-start="4288">In practical terms, that leaves the cash rate anchored at 4.35 per cent for the foreseeable future, with the next move still uncertain.</p>

<p data-end="4494" data-start="4425">For borrowers, it reinforces the reality that relief is not imminent.</p>

<p data-end="4686" data-start="4496">And for the broader economy, it highlights the delicate balance the RBA is trying to strike, between bringing inflation back to target and avoiding an unnecessarily sharp slowdown in growth.</p>

<p data-end="4774" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="4688">According to ANZ, it is a balance that is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain.</p>


RBA to hold rates for "prolonged period" rather than hikes: ANZ

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/venturecrowd-property-projects">VentureCrowd</a> is down to the final Canopy Villa release at Cumulus Grand Villas in Carrara, as construction continues on the 59-residence gated community positioned above 100 hectares of natural savanna on the Gold Coast.</p>

<p>The remaining Canopy Villa forms part of one of four collections within the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>-designed community and has attracted interest from buyers seeking larger-format homes that combine privacy, security and low-maintenance living. Positioned within a private cul-de-sac and facing a protected black she oak forest, the four-bedroom villa includes a large private outdoor area suited to pet owners and families wanting more flexible space.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/cumulus-grand-villas-carrara-17-baltimore-court-carrara-qld-4211">Cumulus Grand Villas</a>, located at 17 Baltimore Court, comprises a mix of three and four-bedroom villas across the Skyline, Canopy, Savanna and Broadview collections. Prices currently range from $1.455 million to $1.895 million, with the final Canopy Villa priced from $1.825 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360477]</p>

<p>The Canopy Collection villas offer four bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and approximately 245 sqm of internal space, alongside double garages and landscaped private areas. Expansive glazing, open-plan living spaces and private balconies have been designed to maximise natural light and outlooks toward the surrounding savanna landscape.</p>

<p>Construction is now underway across the fully funded development, which VentureCrowd says has become an increasingly important consideration for buyers assessing off-the-plan opportunities on the Gold Coast. The project is being delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/devcon">Devcon Property Group</a>, which has operated in South East Queensland since 1993 and delivered more than 1,000 homes across the region.</p>

<p>VentureCrowd Director of Property David Whitting previously said the project responds to changing buyer priorities in the prestige Gold Coast market.</p>

<p>“Flexible floorplans have proven particularly relevant for purchasers aged between 40 and 65, including next home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Whitting said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360505]</p>

<p>The buyer profile at Cumulus has reflected that shift toward owner-occupier-driven demand. Stuart Towns and Tracey Loynes recently purchased a Canopy Villa, drawn to both the lifestyle offering and the flexibility the home provided for their next stage of living together.</p>

<p>The couple, who met three years ago, sold their Robina home earlier this year after identifying what they saw as strong long-term investment potential at Cumulus while remaining within the same Gold Coast market. The villa’s private backyard was a major drawcard for their dog Luna, while proximity to golf courses including Emerald Lakes also aligned with their lifestyle interests.</p>

<p>Beyond the residences themselves, the community has been planned around shared lifestyle and recreation amenities. The Infinity Terrace will include a 20-metre heated pool, barbecue facilities, alfresco dining spaces and elevated retreat areas overlooking the surrounding landscape. Walking trails, a private nature reserve, orchard and herb garden are also integrated into the masterplan.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360473]</p>

<p>BDA Architecture Director Darren Greenaway said the design approach was heavily influenced by the site’s outlook and secluded setting.</p>

<p>The practice sought to create what Greenaway described as a “little piece of paradise,” drawing inspiration from the elevated views, surrounding greenery and quiet location.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/carrara-qld-4211">Carrara</a> continues to attract buyers seeking larger homes within proximity to the coast but without direct beachfront pricing. Cumulus sits within easy reach of Broadbeach, Pacific Fair, Robina Town Centre and the M1, providing connections north to Brisbane and south toward the Gold Coast Airport and northern New South Wales.</p>

<p>The first stage of Cumulus Grand Villas is targeting completion in 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135663]</p>


VentureCrowd nears sell-out of Canopy Collection at Cumulus Grand Villas in Carrara

<p data-end="89" data-start="0">Waverley Council has made a call that many councils have been reluctant to make publicly. Growth is coming, regardless of who controls it.</p>

<p data-end="659" data-start="141">The release of the Bondi Junction Vision and Master Plan is less about whether the Eastern Suburbs’ primary centre will change, and more about how that change is shaped, funded, and ultimately experienced on the ground. Waverley Council has released a 100-page plan which is effectively the first comprehensive blueprint for Bondi Junction in over two decades, and in doing so, signals a clear shift in how councils are positioning themselves in the current planning environment.</p>

<p data-end="1018" data-start="661">For the past 18 months, the conversation across New South Wales has been dominated by the State Government’s Low and Mid-Rise Housing reforms and the emergence of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway. Both have created faster, more centralised avenues for development approvals, particularly in well-located, infrastructure-rich areas like Bondi Junction.</p>

<p data-end="1087" data-start="1020">Waverley Council’s response has been to move early, and decisively.</p>

<p data-end="1547" data-start="1089">Rather than react to individual proposals as they come through the HDA or broader State-led reforms, Council has sought to establish a clear, place-based framework that sets the terms for how Bondi Junction evolves. The underlying position is relatively straightforward: if densification is inevitable, it should be tied to infrastructure, public domain improvements, and a cohesive vision for the centre, not delivered piecemeal through ad hoc applications.</p>

<p data-end="1547" data-start="1089"><img alt="bondi junction" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7f1f729c-ed99-4c6c-bf87-ffbce6991941" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-19%20at%209.58.16%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=ULX4OlXKjeJ5BvNCNGL86evgXCjCfMih" /></p>

<p data-end="2067" data-start="1591">At its core, the document is attempting to reposition Bondi Junction from what it largely functions as today, a transport interchange anchored by a major retail centre, into something far more layered. The ambition is to transform it into what the plan describes as the “civic and cultural heart of Sydney’s East,” a place that is active beyond commuting hours and capable of supporting a broader mix of uses, experiences and communities.</p>

<p data-end="2123" data-start="2069">That repositioning is built around four key ambitions.</p>

<p data-end="2424" data-start="2125">The first is to create a true destination. Bondi Junction already attracts significant foot traffic, with more than 86,000 daily transport users and millions of annual retail visits, but much of that activity is transient. People pass through, rather than stay.</p>

<p data-end="2897" data-start="2426">The Master Plan seeks to change that dynamic. It leans heavily into the idea of an “18-hour economy,” extending activity well beyond traditional retail hours through dining, cultural programming, events, and a more active night-time offering. This is not just about adding more hospitality venues, but about fundamentally shifting how the centre operates, from a daytime shopping destination to a place that functions across the full span of the day and into the evening.</p>

<p data-end="2951" data-start="2899">Oxford Street Mall sits at the centre of that shift.</p>

<p data-end="3478" data-start="2953">Long seen as underperforming relative to its potential, the Mall is identified as one of the key catalyst projects in the plan. It is to be reimagined as a day-to-night spine, combining retail, dining, wellness and cultural uses in a way that creates a continuous flow of activity. Outdoor dining, rooftop venues, laneway activation and a curated events program are all part of the strategy, alongside significant public domain upgrades that aim to improve comfort, safety and usability.</p>

<p data-end="3478" data-start="2953">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3562" data-start="3480">The second ambition is to transform Bondi Junction into a world-class interchange.</p>

<p data-end="3890" data-start="3564">Despite being one of the most heavily used transport nodes in Sydney, the current experience is fragmented. Connections between the station, Westfield, Oxford Street Mall and surrounding streets are often unclear, and major roads create physical barriers that disrupt pedestrian movement.</p>

<p data-end="4240" data-start="3892">The Master Plan proposes a more seamless, people-focused network. That includes clearer pedestrian links, improved wayfinding, better integration between transport modes, and a rethinking of how arrival into the centre is experienced. The aim is to shift the perception of Bondi Junction from a place people move through, to a place they arrive in.</p>

<p data-end="4296" data-start="4242">The third ambition focuses on greening and open space.</p>

<p data-end="4709" data-start="4298">One of the more consistent pieces of community feedback throughout the Vision phase was the need for more greenery, better public spaces, and a more comfortable urban environment. Despite being surrounded by major parks, Bondi Junction itself has relatively limited accessible open space, with much of the public realm dominated by hard surfaces and traffic infrastructure.</p>

<p data-end="5076" data-start="4711">The plan responds with a network of new and upgraded public spaces, increased tree canopy, and what it terms the “Parkline,” a green link connecting Waverley Park through to Centennial Park. This is not just about aesthetics. It is about addressing heat, improving liveability, and ensuring that increased density is matched by access to high-quality outdoor space.</p>

<p data-end="5183" data-start="5078">The fourth ambition is perhaps the most important from a development perspective: growth that gives back.</p>

<p data-end="5501" data-start="5185">Bondi Junction is already the primary location for new housing supply in the Waverley LGA, and that is expected to continue. The area carries a target of 2,400 new dwellings by 2029, with further growth projected beyond that as demand for well-located housing continues to rise. The Master Plan does not seek to limit that growth. Instead, it attempts to shape it.</p>

<p data-end="5842" data-start="5590">New housing is to be concentrated around transport, with stepped building heights designed to protect the character of surrounding neighbourhoods. At the same time, the plan introduces a more explicit link between development uplift and public benefit. This is where value capture becomes central.</p>

<p data-end="6327" data-start="5890">The document outlines a framework where increased development potential is tied to contributions that fund public domain improvements, community infrastructure, open space, and affordable housing. It is an approach that recognises that much of the transformation of Bondi Junction will be delivered by the private sector, but seeks to ensure that the benefits of that growth are shared more broadly. The Civic Precinct is a key part of that equation.</p>

<p data-end="6732" data-start="6381">Leveraging Council-owned land, the plan proposes a consolidated civic and cultural hub centred around Ebley Street. This would include new community facilities, cultural spaces, and potentially a new Council Chambers, creating a focal point for civic life that currently does not exist in Bondi Junction at scale.</p>

<p data-end="6980" data-start="6734">It is one of several catalyst projects identified in the Master Plan, alongside the Oxford Street Mall transformation. These projects are intended to anchor change, acting as early interventions that unlock broader investment across the precinct.</p>

<p data-end="7137" data-start="6982">Importantly, the Master Plan is not just a design document. It includes a delivery framework that sets out how these ambitions are intended to be realised.</p>

<p data-end="7519" data-start="7139">Council is explicit in acknowledging that it cannot deliver the transformation alone. Implementation will require coordination between State agencies, private developers, landowners and the community, with a mix of planning agreements, infrastructure contributions and direct delivery mechanisms used to fund and stage improvements over time.</p>

<p data-end="7843" data-start="7556">The plan outlines a mix of short-term, medium-term and long-term actions, from immediate public domain upgrades and planning controls, through to larger-scale projects that will unfold over the next decade or more. In practical terms, the next 12 to 24 months will be the most important.</p>

<p data-end="8108" data-start="7845">This is when the Master Plan will move through exhibition, refinement and eventual adoption. It is also the period in which Council will seek to embed the framework into its planning controls, giving it weight in the assessment of future development applications.</p>

<p data-end="8528" data-start="8161">Council officers have indicated that once the Master Plan is in place, it could be used as a benchmark when assessing Housing Delivery Authority proposals, and potentially reduce the need for further HDA declarations within Bondi Junction. In effect, it is an attempt to bring planning control back to the local level, while still aligning with State housing targets.</p>

<p data-end="8654" data-start="8530">That tension between State-led reform and local planning control is not unique to Waverley. It is playing out across Sydney.</p>

<p data-end="8710" data-start="8656">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="8710" data-start="8656">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="9626" data-start="9587">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="10207" data-start="9884">If delivered as intended, Bondi Junction will become denser, more active, and more complex. It will support more residents, more workers, and a wider range of uses, extending beyond its current retail core into a more layered urban environment.</p>


“The civic and cultural heart of Sydney’s East”: Bondi Junction masterplan revealed

Investor Lending

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<p class="p1"> </p>
<p>In the first quarter of 2016 the Australian Labor Party (ALP) announced as part of its 'positive policies' manifesto that if elected it planned to wind back certain tax benefits for property investors.  </p>
<p class="p1"> </p>
<p>At that point, investor housing finance was down 22 percent year-on-year at just $10.8 billion, following on from APRA's cooling measures. </p>
<p class="p1"> </p>
<p>Predictably enough, since that time, to the extent that at $13.8 billion total monthly investor loans are now 28 percent higher than a year earlier. </p>
<p class="p3"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/14/A1.jpg" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p class="p3"><span style="font-size: 12.16px;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/14/A1.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">Tax was far from the only factor in play, of course.</span><span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">Experiences in the UK showed that when new lending rules are implemented, borrowers can take a little time to get to grips with the new criteria, before adjusting course accordingly. </span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">And then there was the interest rate cut on May 4, with borrowers - correctly as it turned out - anticipating that interest rate cuts are rarely delivered as a lone wolf. </span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">Another cut followed on August 3 and then investor loans were really off to the races.</span><span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s2"><strong>Further measures</strong></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">It's tempting to argue that the market should just be left to sort itself out, and in some areas it already has.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">When there are more rentals than willing tenants, then in time rents fall, vacancy rates rise, and owning an investment property naturally becomes are less than attractive proposition. </span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">But while it's common to see a high level of investor interest in the inner capital cities where rental demand is high, even far out into the suburbs and the traditional homebuyer heartlands there seems to be an unnaturally high number of investors perusing the market, which is both unhealthy and unsustainable. </span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">There is presently some talk of the incumbent Coalition making changes to the capital gains tax (CGT) legislation, but overall the government doesn't seem to be planning much in the way of cooling the housing market.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">Meanwhile, the economy generally isn't in sound enough condition for markets to believe that the Reserve Bank will be hiking the cash rate any time soon.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">It seems most likely that further measures will come via the regulator as 2017 rolls on, and will perhaps be manifested in higher mortgage rates for investors, or tougher qualifying criteria for investor loans, or both. </span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1"> </span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Investor lending has come storming back: Pete Wargent

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>It seems that lenders were already scaling back their appetite for investment lending as early as January this year, with the value of housing finance commitments for investment purposes falling by almost 6 percent in February; the largest fall in lending for investment purposes since September 2015. </p>
<p>While this is only one month of data, it is likely that investment lending has moved, or is moving through the peak of the cycle.</p>
<p>The February 2017 housing finance data which was released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). </p>
<p>The data showed that in February 2017 there was $32.9 billion worth of housing finance commitments which was -2.7 percent lower over the month but 3.5 percent higher compared to the value in February 2016. </p>
<p>To highlight how much lending is going to housing it is interesting to note that five years earlier, $20.4 billion worth of housing finance commitments was recorded in February 2012.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/12/chart-1-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/12/chart-1-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The $32.9 billion of housing finance commitments in February 2017 consisted of $20.0 billion to owner occupiers and $12.9 billion to investors. </p>
<p>The value of lending to owner occupiers has changed very little over the past eight months and was -0.5 percent lower over the month and -2.3 percent lower year-on-year. </p>
<p>The value of lending to investors fell by -5.9 percent in February but is still 14.0 percent higher year-on-year. </p>
<p>The -5.9 percent monthly fall in the value of lending to investors was the largest monthly fall since September 2015 and is a dramatic change in direction for investment lending which has been trending higher since January 2016.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/12/chart-2-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/12/chart-2-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Owner occupier housing finance commitments are split into four types: construction of dwellings ($1.8 billion), purchase of new dwellings ($1.0 billion), refinancing of established dwellings ($6.2 billion) and purchase of established dwellings ($11.0 billion).  Construction of dwellings and purchase of new dwellings rose over the month and were also the only commitment types higher year-on-year. </p>
<p>Lending for refinances in particular have been in a steady decline since December 2015, at that time there were $7.3 billion in commitments over the month with the $6.2 billion in February 2017 tracking -15.6 percent lower. </p>
<p>This does seem a little counter-intuitive given that since December 2015 there has been substantial repricing of mortgage rates since that time and investors have returned to the market which could have involved refinancing of their owner-occupied properties to fund the investment.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/12/chart-3-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/12/chart-3-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Lending to investors slowed markedly in February 2017 with the two components: new construction ($1.0 billion) and established dwellings ($11.9 billion) each recording a fall over the month. </p>
<p>Lending for construction was -13.6 percent lower in February while lending for established dwellings fell by -5.2 percent. </p>
<p>The decline in housing finance commitments predates the new policy announcement from APRA to lenders a week ago notifying them of changes to lending policies, in particular for interest-only lending which is popular amongst investors. </p>
<p>Although the letter was only recently published, the discussions about the lending policy changes have probably been ongoing with lenders for a number of months and may help to explain the fall in investor lending in February. </p>
<p>Over the next few months it will be interesting to see the direction of lending to investors, if it falls like it did after April 2015, it could lead to a slowdown in the rate of value growth in the housing market although there is little evidence of this occurring as yet.</p>
<p>Click to enlarge</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/12/chart-4-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The above chart shows the value of lending for new housing compared to the value for existing housing, note that refinances are excluded from this data.  New housing is defined as: owner occupier construction of dwellings, owner occupier purchase of new dwellings and investment construction of dwellings which totalled $3.9 billion in February 2017 compared to $22.9 billion for existing housing. </p>
<p>New housing accounted for 14.5 percent of total housing finance commitments over the month. Even though we are in the midst of a housing construction boom there has been no substantial increase in the value of finance commitments for new housing over recent years. Keep in mind though that there are substantially more established properties than new with the 9.8 million dwellings nationally only increasing by 1.8 percent over the past year.</p>
<p>The next few months of housing finance commitments data will be interesting to follow to see if the softness in investor demand continues.  Also with many lenders repricing mortgage rates since February there may be an increase in refinance activity which has been slowing since the end of 2015. </p>
<p>Overall the nature of the mortgage market is changing with higher interest rates and a fresh round of macroprudential controls recently implemented. The next few months should provide insight into whether these tools can ultimately slow some of the current exuberance being shown by investors.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him </em><a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2"><em>here</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Investor lending slows in February before the APRA crackdown was announced

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<p>Crowdfunding platform DomaCom have announced HALO Investment, a subsidiary of HALO Technologies, as a new investor.</p>
<p>They've subscribed to a placement for $500,000 and has subscribed to a further $700,000 worth of shares at ¢7.42 to take their investment to $1.2 million.</p>
<p>The placement puts HALO's investment at 16,172,507 shares.</p>
<p><a href="https://domacom.com.au" target="_blank">DomaCom</a> and HALO have also reached an in-principle agreement for a proposed capital raising.</p>
<p>There's a proposed further placement to HALO for further shares to a maximum of $1.8 million which would take them to over 24 million shares.</p>
<p>On the table is a proposed fully-underwritten non-renounceable rights issue to raise a further $3 million in November 2019 at an issue price of seven cents. The rights issue is proposed to be fully underwritten by Ascot Securities Pty Ltd.</p>
<p>The proposed capital-raisings are subject to execution of binding agreements with HALO and Ascot, which is expected to occur on or around Monday 30 September 2019. </p>
<p>The total amount to be raised by DomaCom during this recapitalisation process is expected to be approximately $6 million and will be used to fund DomaCom’s continued growth including investment in its platform, growing sales in the accumulation and retirement markets via its innovative products and general working capital requirements.</p>
<p> Arthur Naoumidis, DomaCom CEO, said that following the completion of the proposed capital raisings, DomaCom will be able to focus on building revenue by growing their funds under management.</p>
<p>"This has occurred at a pivotal time for our business as all our key products are now operational after 7 years of development," Naoumidis said.</p>
<p>“In addition to helping address our balance sheet, DomaCom has also secured a well-known financial services B2C channel for its fractional property product using the DomaCom Platform and this includes appointing HALO Technologies as Prime Broker exclusively for our secondary market.”</p>
<p>On completion of the capital raising transactions, DomaCom proposes to appoint HALO’s CEO Matthew Roberts and George Paxton to the board of DomaCom Limited as non-executive directors.</p>
<p>“We are very excited to be able to partner with this very innovative business and to be able to use our extensive investor distribution and tech capability to accelerate DomaCom’s growth and achieve a mutually beneficial outcome”, Roberts said.</p>
<p>“With over $2bn in Funds Under Advice in client portfolios uploaded on to the HALO platform and ownership of the MacroVue platform, through our many synergies, we believe that we are well positioned to drive the B2C and B2B distribution of both DomaCom’s secondary market and property syndications.”</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
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wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

DomaCom secures HALO Technologies as cornerstone investor

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<p>The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) announced plans today to remove the investor loan growth benchmark which was introduced in late 2014.</p>
<p>It intends to replace it with more permanent measures which it suggests with continue strengthened lending standards.</p>
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<div class="section">
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<p><span>The benchmark on interest-only lending, established in March 2017, will continue to apply until further notice. </span></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p>The 10 per cent benchmark on investor loan growth was a temporary measure, introduced in 2014 as part of a range of actions to reduce higher risk lending and improve practices.</p>
<p>Since then APRA said authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) have taken steps to improve the quality of lending, raise standards and increase capital resilience.</p>
<p>APRA has written to ADIs today to advise that it is now prepared to remove the investor growth benchmark, where the board of an ADI is able to provide assurance on the strength of their lending standards.</p>
<p>But any return to more rapid rates of investor loan growth would raise concerns.</p>
<p>"Such an environment could lead APRA to consider the need to apply the counter-cyclical capital buffer or some other industry-wide measure," it warned lenders. </p>
<p>For the 10 per cent benchmark to no longer apply, lenders will be expected to confirm that:</p>
<ul>
<li>lending has been below the investor loan growth benchmark for at least the past 6 months;</li>
<li>lending policies meet APRA’s guidance on serviceability; and</li>
<li>lending practices will be strengthened where necessary.</li>
</ul>
<p>As with previous housing-related measures, this approach has been taken in close consultation with the other members of the Council of Financial Regulators. With risks in the environment remaining heightened, it will be important for ADIs to maintain prudent standards and close any remaining gaps in lending practices.</p>
<p>APRA Chairman Wayne Byres said that while the announcement reflects improvements that ADIs have made to lending standards, there is more to do to strengthen the assessment of borrower expenses and existing debt commitments, and the oversight of lending outside of policy. </p>
<p>"The temporary benchmark on investor loan growth has served its purpose. Lending growth has moderated, standards have been lifted and oversight has improved. However, the environment remains one of heightened risk and there are still some practices that need to be further strengthened. APRA is therefore seeking assurances from ADI Boards that they will maintain a firm grip on the prudence of both policies and practices." </p>
<p>For ADIs that do not provide the required commitments to APRA, the investor loan growth benchmark will continue to apply.</p>
<p>As part of these measures, APRA also expects ADIs to develop internal portfolio limits on the proportion of new lending at very high debt-to-income levels, and policy limits on maximum debt-to-income levels for individual borrowers. This provides a simple backstop to complement the more complex and detailed serviceability calculation for individual borrowers, and takes into account the total borrowings of an applicant, rather than just the specific loan being applied for.</p>
<p>"In the current environment, APRA supervisors will continue to closely monitor any changes in lending standards.</p>
<p>"The benchmark on interest-only lending will also continue to apply. APRA will consider the need for further changes to its approach as conditions evolve, in consultation with the other members of the Council of Financial Regulators," Mr Byres said.</p>
<p> </p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

APRA moves to ease 10% lender growth restrictions

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<p>Slower investor demand as a result of APRA’s macro-prudential policy measures is having an impact on all major capital city apartment markets, but so too are other state and federal imposts on foreign buyers, according to JLL’s Apartment Market report for 4Q 2017. </p>
<p>But despite the slower demand, markets are still weathering the recent strong new supply additions "relatively well".</p>
<p>According to JLL, tight development finance conditions and slower pre-sale rates are seeing a self-regulation of supply pipelines and far less projects move into construction.</p>
<p>The amount of stock under construction across the five major capital city markets (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide) at the end of 3Q17 fell to 39,760 apartments, which has shrunk by around 10,000 apartments over the last two quarters.</p>
<p>JLL said the peak in supply was in 2017.</p>
<p>They expect around 25 percent less stock to be delivered in 2018 ensuring that the major markets do not move far into over-supply and that it is a relatively soft landing for the apartment market.</p>
<p>JLL’s Head of Residential Research, Leigh Warner said APRA’s intention in clamping down on investor lending was always to slow the housing market down, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p>"This has been successful, but the risk we are now facing is that the added imposts imposed by state governments and the Federal Government on foreign investors in residential property is slowing this important portion of demand by much more than intended.</p>
<p>“It appears that foreign investors that have already invested are still settling sales at present, albeit often over a longer than normal period. However, it is also clear new offshore demand has fallen sharply and this is particularly impacting some larger CBD projects and projects by foreign developers.”</p>
<p>Warner believes the markets are still showing "remarkable resilience" noting Melbourne continues to operate at low levels of rental vacancy and is seeing rental growth, while apartment prices were still growing in late 2017.</p>
<p>“Sydney too is holding up relatively well in the face of significantly slower Chinese demand than it has enjoyed over recent years.</p>
<p>"Apartment prices have flattened off and are falling in some locations where supply is particularly concentrated, but the rental market is still tight and the market still appears relatively balanced after years of under-supply.”</p>
<p> </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/1/31/NATIONAL.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><em> </em>Warner noted while the large Sydney and Melbourne markets are slowing and driving overall national trends, other markets remain at very different points in the cycle. </p>
<p>Adelaide and Canberra are less mature apartment markets, but both have seen much stronger apartment development and are slightly less progressed in the cycle than Sydney or Melbourne.</p>
<p>Perth and Brisbane are more advanced in the cycle and, after a very challenging 2017, both markets appear to be edging towards the trough in the cycle.</p>
<p>For Brisbane, JLL said the issue has been very much about supply levels, with a considerable amount built over the past two years.</p>
<p>However, Brisbane’s supply peak was in 2016 and a particularly tough development-financing environment will mean the pipeline will drop sharply from 2018 onwards.</p>
<p>Brisbane’s population growth is also picking up after several weak years following the end of the mining boom, which should also help soak up surplus supply.</p>
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Curtailed supply ensures soft landing for resilient apartment market: JLL

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<p>The latest data on property exposures of Australia’s authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADI) show that the perceived riskier areas of new mortgage lending continue to slow.  This is indicative of the macroprudential measures which have been implemented by APRA taking effect and slowing higher loan to valuation ratio (LVR) lending as well as the more recent crackdown on both investor and interest-only mortgage lending.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-12/2017-12-11-blogimg1.png" alt="2017-12-11--annualchangeinthevalueofnewoweneroccuperandivestorlending" width="570" height="198"></p>
<p> <br>The latest quarterly property exposures data released by APRA for the September 2017 quarter shows that ADIs provided mortgages worth $98.211 billion which was 3.3% higher than the value of lending over the same quarter last year.  These new mortgages were split between $67.217 billion for owner occupiers and $30.994 billion for investors.  The value of lending to investors was actually the lowest it has been since the March 2016 quarter.  The value of lending to investors fell by -9.1% over the quarter and is -6.6% lower year-on-year.  After most recently peaking over the December 2016 quarter at $35.572 billion in investor commitments, the value has fallen by -12.9% to September 2017.  While investor demand has fallen, the value of owner occupier mortgage commitments continues to rise to its highest quarterly value since December 2015.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-12/2017-12-11-blogimg2.png" alt="2017-12-11--quarterlyproportionofnewmortgagelendingforinterestonlypurposes" width="570" height="198"></p>
<p><br> The total value of interest-only lending over the September 2017 quarter was $16.603 billion which was -44.8% lower than the value over the June 2017 quarter and -52.8% lower than it was a year ago.  We have recently seen the implementation on the cap of new interest-only lending, limiting it to 30% of new mortgages.  Over the September 2017 quarter, interest-only mortgages accounted for 16.9% of new mortgage lending which was the lowest proportion on record and well down on the 30.5% the previous quarter.  It is a little surprising to see the proportion of lending to investors fall so much over the quarter, especially considering that the cap is 30%.  This potentially indicates that the higher mortgage rates being incurred by interest-only borrowers are actually curtailing demand more so than the cap.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-12/2017-12-11-blogimg3.png" alt="2017-12-11--proportionofquarterlynewmortagelendingbylvrband" width="570" height="198"></p>
<p>The changes to macroprudential policies has resulted in (not-surprisingly) more prudent borrowing.  As a result there has been an ongoing decline in new mortgages being written on high loan to valuation ratios (LVRs).  Over the quarter, $6.676 billion in mortgages were for LVRs above 90%.  Based on this figure, the value of mortgages on LVRs above 90% was -2.3% lower over the quarter, -13.3% lower over the year and it was the lowest quarterly value of mortgages greater than 90% LVR since March 2011.  Over the quarter, the value of mortgages with an LVR of between 80% and 90% was $13.547 billion which was -4.1% lower over the quarter but 3.6% higher year-on-year.  Over the September 2017 quarter, an historic low 20.6% of new mortgages had an LVR greater than 80%.</p>
<p>This latest data highlights that there appears to be a much more prudent approach being taken towards investment and interest-only mortgage lending.  Of course, the macroprudential policies implemented by APRA were specifically targeting these segments of lending which suggests that they are being successful.  Over the coming quarters the most interesting developments to watch will be whether investor lending continues to decline, which we suspect it will.  It will also be interesting to see whether interest-only lending rebounds back to levels closer to the 30% limit or if they continue to languish at much lower levels. If it is the former it indicates that potentially lenders tightened too hard and that there remains demand for this product.  Meanwhile, if it is the latter it suggests that demand for interest-only lending has reduced.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2">here</span></a>.</em></p>
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IO loans hit record low: Cameron Kusher

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<div>If anyone doubted APRA's commitment or ability to quell interest-only lending, then they definitely shouldn't any more.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>New interest-only loans have been smashed to smithereens, down from 45.6 per cent of the market at the 2015 peak to just 16.9 per cent.</div>
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<div>Banks continue to wind back high loan-to-value ratio (LVR) lending, continuing a trend that has been underway for 4 years now. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Property buyers will not only need to pay back principal, they'll need to have a decent deposit too.</div>
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<div>Despite this, the total value of residential mortgages on ADI books rose by +6.9 per cent over the year to September, as the pendulum swings from investors to homebuyers.</div>
<div> </div>
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<div>A seismic shift in the market then, as more borrowers will now be compelled to pay back some debt.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With interest-only lending peaking in 2015, the greatest volume of rollovers will occur in 2020 - <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/p-cliff" target="_blank">see here</a> for my thoughts on what might happen then. </div>
<div> </div>
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<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p><span class="s1"> </span></p>
</div>
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APRA strikes back to quell IO lending

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<p>The trend in housing finance eased a bit, to a total of around $33 billion in September.</p>
<div>The value of investor loans was possibly pumped up a little in the preceding month by refinancing activity, but the monthly trend remains steadily down to about $12 billion, as tweaks to lending standards continue to lean against activity. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The $33 billion result and the related easing in investor loans were variously described as a "walloping fall", "down the gurgler", a "staggering drop", and even plain old "grim".<br><br>A grim $33 billion it is!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Recall that this result comes precisely one month after investor loans had "bounced back", "spiked", "staged a comeback", and all the rest of it. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I guess that goes with the territory when you have to find something new and exciting to say every month. Anyhoo, here's the chart, in all of its walloping grimness!</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-RXhTal2egbw/WgQcDjdlLJI/AAAAAAAAm8A/EM7c07RsGmoFcpckUpApGUc1EcdbgYz4QCEwYBhgL/s1600/FHB4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-RXhTal2egbw/WgQcDjdlLJI/AAAAAAAAm8A/EM7c07RsGmoFcpckUpApGUc1EcdbgYz4QCEwYBhgL/s1600/FHB4.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-RXhTal2egbw/WgQcDjdlLJI/AAAAAAAAm8A/EM7c07RsGmoFcpckUpApGUc1EcdbgYz4QCEwYBhgL/s640/FHB4.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1379"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Owner-occupiers continue to settle on the near-record levels of new stock, with commitments for new dwellings continuing to surge to the highest level since 1978. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-p0iwcb5foU8/WgQcFwi3dZI/AAAAAAAAm8M/HVd6wMYM5dMTHv3NJwZH0HUNR1ci7Q_WgCEwYBhgL/s1600/FHB5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-p0iwcb5foU8/WgQcFwi3dZI/AAAAAAAAm8M/HVd6wMYM5dMTHv3NJwZH0HUNR1ci7Q_WgCEwYBhgL/s1600/FHB5.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-p0iwcb5foU8/WgQcFwi3dZI/AAAAAAAAm8M/HVd6wMYM5dMTHv3NJwZH0HUNR1ci7Q_WgCEwYBhgL/s640/FHB5.jpg" width="640" height="394" data-original-height="833" data-original-width="1353"></a></div>
<p><br><span>Homebuyer demand still looks to be strongest in Victoria, mirroring demographic trends.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-WFHGj0lnfLk/WgQuyfhqm-I/AAAAAAAAm8s/eUVWSyM-6qoVp5cURmis0RSPxhfrt3uKQCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-WFHGj0lnfLk/WgQuyfhqm-I/AAAAAAAAm8s/eUVWSyM-6qoVp5cURmis0RSPxhfrt3uKQCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-WFHGj0lnfLk/WgQuyfhqm-I/AAAAAAAAm8s/eUVWSyM-6qoVp5cURmis0RSPxhfrt3uKQCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="390" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1360"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>The trend number of owner-occupier commitments in Western Australia has been edging slightly higher for the past 5 months, suggesting moderately improving conditions. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">First homebuyers return</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>September is a shorter month than August, as well as playing host to a public holiday and a Grand Final.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Not surprisingly, then, i<span>n original terms the number of first homebuyer loans pulled back slightly from a 93-month high.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-iGuLSAW2avw/WgQcEy-2ExI/AAAAAAAAm8E/7Vs7i_LKCcIiZoLwxGBNm3vONtHvif2OgCLcBGAs/s1600/FHB2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-iGuLSAW2avw/WgQcEy-2ExI/AAAAAAAAm8E/7Vs7i_LKCcIiZoLwxGBNm3vONtHvif2OgCLcBGAs/s1600/FHB2.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-iGuLSAW2avw/WgQcEy-2ExI/AAAAAAAAm8E/7Vs7i_LKCcIiZoLwxGBNm3vONtHvif2OgCLcBGAs/s640/FHB2.jpg" width="640" height="390" data-original-height="827" data-original-width="1356"></a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">As a share of housing finance commitments, however, first homebuyer loans rose again, now levitating from 17.2 per cent to 17.4 per cent, to notch a 4½-year high. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The return of the first homebuyer has largely been driven by incentives in New South Wales and Victoria.  </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Despite the reported monthly decline, in truth first homebuyer numbers were markedly higher over the third quarter in both NSW (58 per cent) and VIC (32 per cent) - it all depends on the preferred narrative, though the figures should be watched closely for revisions.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-itQLd4N_Xj0/WgQcGz760NI/AAAAAAAAm8Q/ghbWaaCBstMlaljGfM-IToewHC9EHG6PACEwYBhgL/s1600/FHBs.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-itQLd4N_Xj0/WgQcGz760NI/AAAAAAAAm8Q/ghbWaaCBstMlaljGfM-IToewHC9EHG6PACEwYBhgL/s1600/FHBs.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-itQLd4N_Xj0/WgQcGz760NI/AAAAAAAAm8Q/ghbWaaCBstMlaljGfM-IToewHC9EHG6PACEwYBhgL/s640/FHBs.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="829" data-original-width="1364"></a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">On average, first homebuyers are borrowing a little less than a year earlier, perhaps implying that, at the margin, the incentives have encouraged more wavering buyers onto the ladder.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">For non-first homebuyers loan sizes are now rising again, however, as they are wont to do once markets get to grips with new lending rules. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FYkwrY3i2kM/WgQcE1I8AiI/AAAAAAAAm8I/RM2-YbC_sjgmYzbdhgYw6TAMSXC20Hk0gCLcBGAs/s1600/FHB3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FYkwrY3i2kM/WgQcE1I8AiI/AAAAAAAAm8I/RM2-YbC_sjgmYzbdhgYw6TAMSXC20Hk0gCLcBGAs/s1600/FHB3.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FYkwrY3i2kM/WgQcE1I8AiI/AAAAAAAAm8I/RM2-YbC_sjgmYzbdhgYw6TAMSXC20Hk0gCLcBGAs/s640/FHB3.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="828" data-original-width="1387"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Centralising demand</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Nothing particularly unexpected to see here, with investor loans declining in response to tighter lending criteria, trending down to sit about 8 per cent lower than at the end of last year, in turn leading to a fairly steady result overall. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The headline numbers suggest housing finance is flattening, as demanded by market commentators and regulators alike. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This suggests it will become more challenging over the next few years for investors to find outperforming markets, following a very easy ride over the past decade, when simply buying properties in Sydney resulted in jackpot returns. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Where to look?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Outstanding 2016 Census research from Terry Rawnsley at SGE Economics &amp; Planning showed that the capital cities created 900,000 new jobs over the five years to 2016, while the whole of regional Australia combined created close to zero. Zip.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney alone created nearly 500,000 jobs jet over the past decade, with the inner suburbs accounting for a disproportionately high share of the employment growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Between 2011 and 2016, total Sydney employment boomed by 342,000, while employment in regional New South Wales went backwards, falling by 17,000. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Drilling down a level, Rawnsley found that employment growth has become more heavily focused on the inner cities of the largest metropolises, especially Sydney and Melbourne. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's worth remembering that these figures comprise a period where resources construction declined, so the contrast over the next five years may not be quite so stark. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Still, with employment growth exploding in the inner cities and investor loans being tightened, upwards pressure returning on rents seems likely in 2018. </div>
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Finding something exciting to say every month on home loan financing: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its Financial Aggregates figures for the month of September 2017, which revealed a softer month for credit growth ex-housing, with total credit growth still tracking at +5.4% over the year. </p>
<p>Annual business credit growth is no more than ticking along (+4.3%), while personal credit remains in negative territory. </p>
<p>Housing credit expanded by +6.6% over the year to September, actually a little faster than the +6.4% pace seen a year earlier, contrary to what you might think.</p>
<p>However, a closer inspection shows that the monthly rate of growth was +0.48% in seasonally adjusted terms, the slowest increase since March 2016, so lending constraints are gradually taking effect.</p>
<p>Total housing credit is now sitting at a tick under $1.7 trillion.</p>
<p>Still powering along for now then, although there has been a concerted push to get borrowers off interest-only products lately. </p>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VyrolIM2qwM/WfiUErmafEI/AAAAAAAAmzQ/qJxnfgl2pGsGhtlVvAkW5Mc1SrihyYiVwCEwYBhgL/s1600/RBA.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VyrolIM2qwM/WfiUErmafEI/AAAAAAAAmzQ/qJxnfgl2pGsGhtlVvAkW5Mc1SrihyYiVwCEwYBhgL/s640/RBA.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="833" data-original-width="1400"></a></p>
<p>The purpose of some $59 billion of loans has now been switched from investor to owner-occupier since July 2015.</p>
<p>The RBA data showed that after accounting for loan switching, the growth in investor credit slowed to +7.2%, with further declines almost certain to follow. </p>
<p><strong>Watch your speed</strong></p>
<p>APRA also released its monthly ADI figures, which showed investor credit growth slowing to a crawl - implying that the non-banks have picked up some market share in this sector - with the total value of owner-occupier loans up by +0.48% in the month. </p>
<p>None of the major banks is now even remotely close the 10% 'speed limit' or regulatory threshold for investment lending, with only Westpac of the main players still pushing this sector along. </p>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Q1KGns0a0u4/Wfjbk122nmI/AAAAAAAAmzw/wMne730nv6QKoU4k3kOGWmAuv6DoPzvZQCLcBGAs/s1600/APRA.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Q1KGns0a0u4/Wfjbk122nmI/AAAAAAAAmzw/wMne730nv6QKoU4k3kOGWmAuv6DoPzvZQCLcBGAs/s640/APRA.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="827" data-original-width="1368"></a></p>
<p>A number of the second-tier lenders, including Suncorp, Macquarie, and others, have significantly cut back their investment mortgage exposure, perhaps suggesting some regulatory pressure. </p>
<p><strong>The wrap</strong></p>
<p>While total housing credit is still rising at a solid pace, investor lending is clearly being snipped back sharply.</p>
<p>With population growth now tracking at historically high levels <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/09/population-growth" target="_blank">as I looked at here</a>, it remains to be seen whether rents begin to rise sharply in the two largest cities in 2018 (personally, I believe that this is likely, especially in Melbourne, though few appear to agree with me at this juncture). </p>
<p>The major banks are now growing their investment loan books at way below the arbitrary 10% cap, so theoretically at least investor loans could begin to feature more prominently again next year, but this may need the regulator to remove its foot from lenders' throats.</p>
<p><strong>New home sales plunge </strong></p>
<p>In other news, new home sales continued the decline begun in 2015 with another -6.1% drop in September 2017, according to Housing Industry Association (HIA) figures.</p>
<p><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sgUUszsRNUI/Wfjb5Uoa7AI/AAAAAAAAmz0/hivavx8-7-k1Cv8pYtl358qVwZSnONLdQCLcBGAs/s1600/HIA.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sgUUszsRNUI/Wfjb5Uoa7AI/AAAAAAAAmz0/hivavx8-7-k1Cv8pYtl358qVwZSnONLdQCLcBGAs/s640/HIA.jpg" width="640" height="404" data-original-height="461" data-original-width="727"></a></p>
<p>The drop was driven by a significant -16.7% drop in multi-unit sales.</p>
<p>New home sales are a leading indicator for building approvals, and following the longest ever upturn in building there now comes the dwelling construction downturn. </p>
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RBA data shows the brakes on lending: Pete Wargent

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<p>AFG's latest Mortgage Index results released today shows that major structural change in the Australian lending landscape is continuing. </p>
<p>“Today’s results paint a very different picture from this time last year,” said AFG CEO <a href="https://www.afgonline.com.au/corporate/board-of-directors/david-bailey-ceo/">David Bailey</a>.</p>
<p>“Regulator-led tightening of investor lending has led to a further drop in investor volume and they are now sitting at an all time low of 29% of the market.</p>
<p>The shift in lender appetite from investors to upgraders is also evident in average loan size. “The national average home loan is now sitting at an all time high of $491,000,” said Mr Bailey. “This increase can be explained by the fact that people generally spend more for their primary place of residence than they do for an investment property.</p>
<p>The number of people looking to refinance has dropped to 25%, whilst those keen to upgrade their living situation is increasing with upgraders now representing 41% of the market. “This is also likely to be a reflection of the lack of lending options on the table for investors wanting to refinance, as lenders pull back from the investor market to meet regulator demands,” said Mr Bailey.</p>
<p>The major lenders’ share of the market is also down to a post-GFC low of 64.4% as borrowers continue to explore alternatives outside of the major bank owned brands.</p>
<p>Looking at loan type, fixed rates are now at 26.3% of all loans which confirms many Australians are anticipating that the next interest rate move will be up,” said Mr Bailey.</p>
<p>First home buyers are enjoying their third consecutive quarter in double digits since the beginning of 2014. “National market share for first home buyers has lifted to 13% across the last quarter, helped in part by new stamp duty concessions kicking in on July 1 for this segment of the market in Victoria and New South Wales.”</p>
<p>Victoria continues to set the pace with lodgement volumes in that state up 27% on the first quarter of last year whilst every other state has lost momentum to varying degrees. The strength of the Victorian home market is also evidenced in the average loan size for that state, which is 5% higher than it was at the same time last year.</p>
<p><a class="image_link fancybox image" href="https://www.afgonline.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/mortgage-index-financial-year-2018-quarter-1.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-19646" src="https://www.afgonline.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/mortgage-index-financial-year-2018-quarter-1-1024x438.png" alt="" width="1024" height="438"></a></p>
<p class="p3">“Overall, volumes are up on the previous two quarters, however, compared to the same time last year they are flat. This translates into the view that regulator-led changes are being felt everywhere except Victoria,” concluded Mr Bailey.</p>
<p class="p3">To download the full report <a href="https://www.afgonline.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/afg-mortgage-index-october-quarter-2017.pdf" target="_blank">click here.</a></p>
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