<p>Longstanding Gold Coast and Canberra developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/morris-property-group">Morris Property Group</a> is continuing to roll on with its Glitter Strip apartment pipeline, seeking to return to Mermaid Beach with a new 68-apartment development.</p>

<p>Morris, founded by Barry Morris in 1978 and one of the Gold Coast’s most prolific apartment developers over the past two decades, has filed plans for a 12-storey mixed-use building at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/36-seabeach-avenue-mermaid-beach-qld-4218">34-36 Seabeach Avenue</a>, on the prized eastern side of the Gold Coast Highway.</p>

<p>The 1,227 sqm site occupies a prominent corner position at Seabeach Avenue and the Gold Coast Highway, opposite the Mermaid Plaza retail and office precinct and around 140 metres walking distance from the future Mermaid Beach South light rail station.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fraser-partners-0">Fraser &amp; Partners</a> has designed the project, which will comprise 68 apartments across a mix of 48 two-bedroom and 20 three-bedroom residences.</p>

<p>The building will rise 12 storeys, reaching a maximum height of 36 metres, with the apartments accounting for a total of 156 bedrooms. The development application also seeks approval for short-term accommodation across the 68 apartments, while two office tenancies are proposed at ground level.</p>

<p>The plans show 108 car spaces across the development, with parking accommodated at ground level and within a three-level basement accessed from Seabeach Avenue.</p>

<p><img alt="Seabeach Avenue and the Gold Coast Highway" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c2175c99-12fd-4a3c-9be1-89bbf258a90d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-20%20at%202.59.41%E2%80%AFPM_0.png?VersionId=iNLzWcE6gaAE76rafhEXfHve.4g4Se0p" /></p>

<p>Resident amenity will be concentrated on level two, where Fraser &amp; Partners has designed a recreation deck with a swimming pool, 90 sqm pool terrace, outdoor barbecue area and gym.</p>

<p>The broader communal offering will also incorporate landscaped spaces, with the planning documents noting the amenity has been designed to provide areas for recreation, social interaction and outdoor living.</p>

<p>The proposal would continue the transformation of the Gold Coast Highway corridor through Mermaid Beach ahead of the arrival of the light rail.</p>

<p>The site is zoned Neighbourhood Centre and sits within the Mermaid Beach/Broadbeach Light Rail Corridor neighbourhood plan. While the prescribed building height is 24 metres, the site is identified within an Urban Neighbourhood context providing for a 50 per cent height uplift to 36 metres.</p>

<p>Planning documents describe the stretch of the Gold Coast Highway between Broadbeach and Nobby Beach as increasingly characterised by medium and high-rise development, with the proposed Morris tower joining projects including Ventura, The Alfred, Oceans and Otto.</p>

<p><img alt="Seabeach Avenue and the Gold Coast Highway" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="911f193f-e381-4a55-be08-58be87fcf978" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-20%20at%202.59.48%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=oxVvLJaY.SOXEdXrIcogfyEXDfvCmmpM" /></p>

<p>The development would mark Morris Property Group's latest investment in Mermaid Beach, where it has already delivered two apartment projects.</p>

<p>Otto, at 1 Bondi Avenue on the western side of the Gold Coast Highway, comprises 70 apartments across nine storeys. The project was completed in 2019 and includes a residents' gym, recreation deck and swimming pool.</p>

<p>Morris also developed Oceans at 46 Ocean Street, a nine-storey, 70-apartment build-to-rent development completed in 2019. Oceans was the group's first build-to-rent project and incorporates commercial space at ground level.</p>

<p>The two existing Morris projects sit further north along the same Gold Coast Highway corridor as the proposed Seabeach Avenue development. Fraser &amp; Partners' planning analysis specifically identifies both Otto and Oceans among the established built-form precedents surrounding the site.</p>

<p><img alt="Seabeach Avenue and the Gold Coast Highway" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="14925119-7b71-4812-8149-340317512c7c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-20%20at%203.00.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=aEJqYuw_nTCjcin17BSD0piB1EFotTlj" /></p>

<p>Mermaid Beach represents only part of Morris' considerable Gold Coast footprint.</p>

<p>The family-owned developer has been particularly active in neighbouring Broadbeach, delivering projects including Sierra Grand, Eclipse, Synergy, Qube, Koko, Opus and Malo, while its current pipeline includes Maison and the two-tower Crest development.</p>

<p>Further south, Morris has also developed a string of projects in Burleigh Heads, including Element, Boardwalk and Sandbar, while Essentia expanded its footprint north into Surfers Paradise.</p>

<p>The Seabeach Avenue application has been lodged by PMM Broadbeach Pty Ltd and seeks a development permit for a Material Change of Use for multiple dwellings, short-term accommodation and office uses. Zone Planning Group prepared the planning application, with Fraser &amp; Partners commissioned as architect.</p>

<p>The project comes as the developer continues to expand its Gold Coast pipeline while retaining a significant presence in Canberra. Morris now has more than $2.5 billion of development in its national pipeline and has delivered more than 7,000 homes during its near five-decade history</p>


Joel Robinson

First look: Morris Property Group returns to Mermaid Beach with new Seabeach Avenue apartment development

<p><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/fortis&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1787272340808000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3hvFB2uWTRfEyEcpTSnnK9" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/fortis" target="_blank">Fortis</a>&nbsp;is continuing its stronghold on Sydn​ey’s eastern suburbs apartment market, launching&nbsp;in September&nbsp;its latest boutique&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/double-bay-nsw-2028&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1787272340808000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0GI5S9-wNeiLUnM-d1uYkw" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/double-bay-nsw-2028" target="_blank">Double Bay</a>&nbsp;development,&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-william-double-bay-55-william-street-double-bay-nsw-2028&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1787272340808000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2YNouJQcFjiTTgVHbgDLA-" href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-william-double-bay-55-william-street-double-bay-nsw-2028" target="_blank">55 William</a>.</p>

<p>55 William presents&nbsp;just eight north-facing&nbsp;two-bedroom, three-bedroom and full-floor&nbsp;residences to the market, priced from $4.5 million.</p>

<p>The upcoming launch comes just weeks after Fortis secured approval for the $80 million development, its third eastern suburbs approval in two months. Construction is already underway, with completion targeted for 2028.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=152579 project_image_fid=376250]</p>

<p>55 William adds to a growing concentration of Fortis projects in and around Double Bay, a market the developer has become increasingly active in over recent years.</p>

<p>Fortis previously completed the nine-residence Marmont on New South Head Road, while it is currently developing a mixed-use residential and retail project at 12 Cross Street. Its wider Double Bay footprint also extends into commercial and retail development.</p>

<p>The developer's broader Sydney residential pipeline is particularly concentrated across the eastern suburbs, with projects spanning Doub​le Bay, Ro​se Bay, Wo​ollahra, Dar​ling Point, Poi​nt Piper and Eli​zabeth Bay.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=152579 project_image_fid=376253]</p>

<p>At 55 William, Fortis has again turned to MHN Design Union, the architecture practice behind several of its eastern suburbs projects, while London-based 1508 London has been appointed to handle the interiors and Wyer &amp; Co the landscaping.</p>

<p>The six-level building will comprise a combination of two and three-bedroom apartments, including a garden residence, full-floor apartments, a sub-penthouse and penthouse. Each residence will have secure basement parking and private outdoor space.</p>

<p>A rooftop terrace for all residents, along with select apartments, enjoys views across Double Bay Harbour and toward the Sydney skyline.</p>

<p>Ceiling heights will reach up to three metres&nbsp;in select residences, while the kitchens will feature natural stone and integrated Gaggenau appliances.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The boutique nature of the project reflects the type of stock Fortis has increasingly targeted across Sydney's eastern suburbs, where larger apartments and smaller buildings are being pitched primarily toward local owner-occupiers and downsizers.</p>

<p>Fortis Group General Manager Ed Eve said the developer continues to see demand from buyers wanting to remain in the eastern suburbs but move into newer, lower-maintenance housing.</p>

<p>“We're seeing continued demand from local owner-occupiers and downsizers looking for high-quality homes that allow them to remain in the eastern suburbs, close to the lifestyle and community they know,” Eve said.</p>

<p>55 William is also one of the early projects to respond directly to the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing reforms. Fortis had previously secured approval for just two townhouses on the 599 sqm site before revising the scheme to eight apartments following the planning changes.</p>

<p style="text-align:start">Situated one street back from Double Bay's water's edge, the project enjoys an enviable harbourside setting within walking distance of Double Bay Village and the ferry wharf.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=152579 project_image_fid=376252]</p>

<p>Fortis has increasingly made the eastern suburbs a major focus of its Sydney pipeline. Beyond Double Bay, it recently completed the 14-residence Piper in Point Piper and has projects underway or planned across Rose Bay, Woollahra and Darling Point.</p>

<p>The developer recently secured approval for Verano in Rose Bay, a six-level development comprising 21 two, three and four-bedroom apartments, also designed by MHNDU.</p>

<p>55 William&nbsp;is soon to be release to the market with VIP appointments commencing early September,&nbsp;with residences priced from $4.5 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152579]</p>


Fortis continues eastern suburbs push with 55 William launch

<p>UAE-based developer Arada has unveiled plans for a $2 billion twin-tower apartment development in Broadbeach, marking its first move into Queensland as it continues its rapid expansion across Australia.</p>

<p>Arada will develop 952 apartments across two towers on a prominent site opposite the Gold Coast Convention and Exhibition Centre, with the project targeted for completion ahead of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.</p>

<p>The project represents Arada's largest commitment to the Australian market since arriving in the country in 2024 and significantly expands a local pipeline that has now grown to eight projects and more than 5,000 homes.</p>

<p>It will also be the first major Queensland project delivered by Roberts Co since the tier-one contractor was acquired by Arada Group in 2025.</p>

<p>Plus Studio has designed the Broadbeach development, which will comprise one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two towers connected by a landscaped podium.</p>

<p>A significant resident amenity offering will include lagoon and lap pools, a gym, sauna and steam room, alongside a mist room, infrared room and salt scrub facilities. Communal terraces, private dining areas, a library, residents' lounge and work-from-home spaces are also planned. Around 1,200 sqm of retail and hospitality space will occupy the ground floor.</p>

<p>The site puts Arada in one of the Gold Coast's most active apartment markets, directly opposite the convention centre and within walking distance of Pacific Fair, The Star Gold Coast and Broadbeach's dining and retail precinct.</p>

<p>It also has immediate access to the Gold Coast light rail network and sits just a few blocks from the beach.</p>

<p>Arada Group Chief Executive Ahmed Alkhoshaibi said Broadbeach represented an opportunity for the developer to expand beyond its initial NSW pipeline.</p>

<p>“Broadbeach is a world-class address that gives us the canvas to create a community of exceptional design and lifestyle quality that genuinely enriches the daily lives of the people who call it home,” Alkhoshaibi said.</p>

<p>“This is our first development outside New South Wales, and it reflects our growing ambition to grow in key urban markets around the country.”</p>

<p>Alkhoshaibi said bringing Roberts Co into the project would give Arada greater control over the development and construction process.</p>

<p>“Delivering this project through Roberts Co, our own tier-one construction business, means we can bring the quality, pace and accountability that our buyers expect.”</p>

<p>The move into Broadbeach comes as Arada accelerates its Australian expansion following its entry into the market two years ago. The developer has assembled a pipeline of eight projects comprising more than 5,000 homes, while the acquisition of Roberts Co last year gave the group its own Australian construction capability.</p>

<p>Globally, Arada has a development portfolio valued at $50 billion comprising more than 55,000 homes across the UAE, United Kingdom and Australia.</p>

<p>The Gold Coast is emerging as the next major market for the developer, with strong population growth and infrastructure spending ahead of the 2032 Games continuing to underpin significant apartment development across the coastal strip.</p>


Arada plots $2 billion Broadbeach towers in major Queensland move

<p>Sydney’s downsizer market is changing, with a growing cohort of buyers prioritising the right home over simply finding a smaller one.</p>

<p>Coronation Property Head of Sales Cam Porter says the traditional idea of downsizing does not necessarily reflect what many buyers are now looking for, particularly those moving from established family homes across Sydney.</p>

<p>Instead, he says they are increasingly becoming “right-sizers”, seeking lower-maintenance homes without sacrificing the space, amenity or quality they have become accustomed to.</p>

<p>“We are increasingly seeing buyers who are not motivated by the idea of simply moving into a smaller property,” Porter says.</p>

<p>“They are right-sizers. They want a home that is easier to manage and better connected, but they still expect generosity, quality and a floorplan that supports the way they live.”</p>

<p>It is a subtle but important distinction in a market where apartment developers are increasingly targeting established owner-occupiers.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135149 project_image_fid=377495]</p>

<p>For many of these buyers, moving from a house to an apartment is not driven by a desire to dramatically reduce their living space. Instead, the appeal is in removing some of the maintenance associated with a larger home while retaining generous living areas, storage and enough flexibility to accommodate family and friends.</p>

<p>Coronation’s sales team is seeing buyers place particular importance on natural light, practical storage and additional rooms that can be used as guest bedrooms, home offices or secondary living spaces.</p>

<p>Kitchens and dining areas are also playing an increasingly important role, particularly for buyers who regularly entertain or have children and grandchildren visit.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135149 project_image_fid=377494]</p>

<p>“These buyers still want their home to feel generous,” Porter says.</p>

<p>“They may want less maintenance, but they are not looking for less life.”</p>

<p>The challenge for the broader housing market is providing enough of the right stock to encourage that move.</p>

<p>While much of the discussion around Sydney’s housing shortage has centred on the number of homes being delivered, Porter says the diversity of those homes is equally important.</p>

<p>Older homeowners can remain in large family houses for longer when they cannot find an appropriate alternative in the neighbourhoods where they have built their lives.</p>

<p>“The decision is rarely as simple as wanting fewer bedrooms,” Porter says.</p>

<p>“People are weighing up their connection to a neighbourhood, the space they need for family, the quality of the home and whether it will continue to work for them over the long term.”</p>

<p>It also has implications beyond the downsizer market. Providing suitable apartments for smaller households can free up established houses for families who need the additional bedrooms and land, creating greater movement through the housing market.</p>

<h2>Lillian targets the next stage of apartment buyer</h2>

<p>It is a buyer Coronation is targeting at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lillian-erskineville-9-metters-street-erskineville-nsw-2043">Lillian</a>, its new collection of apartments, terraces and penthouses at Erskineville Village.</p>

<p>Designed by Silvester Fuller, Lillian has been shaped around larger living spaces, natural light and flexible floorplans, alongside landscaped areas, wellness amenity and communal spaces for residents.</p>

<p>The development will form part of Coronation’s broader Erskineville Village precinct, which will combine new homes with green space, retail, hospitality and new pedestrian connections.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135149 project_image_fid=377688]</p>

<p>McPherson Park will sit at the centre of the precinct, creating a significant new green space alongside the project’s retail and hospitality offering.</p>

<p>For Porter, the opportunity is to give buyers another housing option without forcing them to leave the part of Sydney they already know.</p>

<p>“People should be able to change the type of home they live in without having to change their entire life,” he says.</p>

<p>“For many buyers, Lillian offers the opportunity to remain connected to the Inner West and the city, while gaining access to a more convenient, walkable and considered way of living.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135149 project_image_fid=377687]</p>

<p>Coronation will explore the changing <a href="https://lillianresidences.com.au/news/lillian-x-space-x-downsizers-event-27-august/">right-sizer market at an event on August 27</a>, bringing together experts across property, design and lifestyle.</p>

<p>Held in partnership with SPACE, Poliform and Downsizer.com.au, the event will include a property market outlook from economist Michael Blythe alongside discussion around the considerations facing buyers planning their next move.</p>

<p>Attendees will also be able to learn more about the residences and amenity planned at Lillian Erskineville.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135149]</p>


From downsizing to right-sizing: What Sydney buyers want from their next home

<p>Family-owned builder and developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/omaya">Omaya</a> is bringing its 27-storey The Maybelle development to market, with the 229-apartment tower rising alongside Ismay Reserve near North Strathfield.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-maybelle-21-parramatta-road-homebush-nsw-2140">The Maybelle</a> will comprise one, two and three-bedroom apartments, with its height providing elevated outlooks towards the Sydney skyline and Harbour Bridge, while other residences will look across neighbouring Ismay Reserve.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/squillace-architects">Squillace Architects</a>, the tower combines its parkside setting with proximity to the established retail, dining and transport amenity around North Strathfield.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134873 project_image_fid=376196]</p>

<p>Residences will feature open-plan living spaces and a choice of two interior schemes, while communal amenity is spread across two elevated levels of the building.</p>

<p>Level 8 will be home to the Garden Pavilion, a full-floor resident space incorporating communal entertaining and breakout areas, seating and recreation spaces. Further up the tower, a landscaped Sky Terrace on Level 14 will provide another communal area with panoramic views towards the Harbour Bridge and Sydney skyline.</p>

<p>At ground level, the development sits directly alongside Ismay Reserve, where lawns, walking paths, children's play areas, picnic spaces and recreational facilities extend the green space available immediately around the project.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134873 project_image_fid=376194]</p>

<p>The Maybelle is also within walking distance of North Strathfield and the Bakehouse Quarter, which provides a mix of cafés, restaurants, shops and everyday services.</p>

<p>Existing rail and bus services provide connections across Sydney, while the future North Strathfield Metro and access to the M4 will add to the transport options available around the precinct. Walking and cycling routes also extend via Powells Creek towards Sydney Olympic Park and its sporting, entertainment and parkland precincts.</p>

<p>Families are also well positioned for access to a broad selection of established schools and education options across Strathfield and the surrounding Inner West.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134873 project_image_fid=376181]</p>

<p>Omaya has operated in Sydney for more than 35 years, managing projects from acquisition and design through to construction and delivery. The family-owned company is both developer and builder of The Maybelle.</p>

<p>Apartments start from $560,000, with the development protected by 10-year Latent Defects Insurance.</p>

<p>Construction is well underway, with completion expected by the end of 2026 and move-in anticipated from Q1 2027.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134873]</p>


The Maybelle brings 27-storey parkside tower to market near North Strathfield

Investor Lending

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<p class="p1"> </p>
<p>In the first quarter of 2016 the Australian Labor Party (ALP) announced as part of its 'positive policies' manifesto that if elected it planned to wind back certain tax benefits for property investors.  </p>
<p class="p1"> </p>
<p>At that point, investor housing finance was down 22 percent year-on-year at just $10.8 billion, following on from APRA's cooling measures. </p>
<p class="p1"> </p>
<p>Predictably enough, since that time, to the extent that at $13.8 billion total monthly investor loans are now 28 percent higher than a year earlier. </p>
<p class="p3"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/14/A1.jpg" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 12.16px;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p class="p3"><span style="font-size: 12.16px;"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/14/A1.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">Tax was far from the only factor in play, of course.</span><span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">Experiences in the UK showed that when new lending rules are implemented, borrowers can take a little time to get to grips with the new criteria, before adjusting course accordingly. </span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">And then there was the interest rate cut on May 4, with borrowers - correctly as it turned out - anticipating that interest rate cuts are rarely delivered as a lone wolf. </span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">Another cut followed on August 3 and then investor loans were really off to the races.</span><span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s2"><strong>Further measures</strong></span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">It's tempting to argue that the market should just be left to sort itself out, and in some areas it already has.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">When there are more rentals than willing tenants, then in time rents fall, vacancy rates rise, and owning an investment property naturally becomes are less than attractive proposition. </span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">But while it's common to see a high level of investor interest in the inner capital cities where rental demand is high, even far out into the suburbs and the traditional homebuyer heartlands there seems to be an unnaturally high number of investors perusing the market, which is both unhealthy and unsustainable. </span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">There is presently some talk of the incumbent Coalition making changes to the capital gains tax (CGT) legislation, but overall the government doesn't seem to be planning much in the way of cooling the housing market.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">Meanwhile, the economy generally isn't in sound enough condition for markets to believe that the Reserve Bank will be hiking the cash rate any time soon.</span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1">It seems most likely that further measures will come via the regulator as 2017 rolls on, and will perhaps be manifested in higher mortgage rates for investors, or tougher qualifying criteria for investor loans, or both. </span></p>
<p class="p3"><span class="s1"> </span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Investor lending has come storming back: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>It seems that lenders were already scaling back their appetite for investment lending as early as January this year, with the value of housing finance commitments for investment purposes falling by almost 6 percent in February; the largest fall in lending for investment purposes since September 2015. </p>
<p>While this is only one month of data, it is likely that investment lending has moved, or is moving through the peak of the cycle.</p>
<p>The February 2017 housing finance data which was released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). </p>
<p>The data showed that in February 2017 there was $32.9 billion worth of housing finance commitments which was -2.7 percent lower over the month but 3.5 percent higher compared to the value in February 2016. </p>
<p>To highlight how much lending is going to housing it is interesting to note that five years earlier, $20.4 billion worth of housing finance commitments was recorded in February 2012.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/12/chart-1-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/12/chart-1-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The $32.9 billion of housing finance commitments in February 2017 consisted of $20.0 billion to owner occupiers and $12.9 billion to investors. </p>
<p>The value of lending to owner occupiers has changed very little over the past eight months and was -0.5 percent lower over the month and -2.3 percent lower year-on-year. </p>
<p>The value of lending to investors fell by -5.9 percent in February but is still 14.0 percent higher year-on-year. </p>
<p>The -5.9 percent monthly fall in the value of lending to investors was the largest monthly fall since September 2015 and is a dramatic change in direction for investment lending which has been trending higher since January 2016.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/12/chart-2-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/12/chart-2-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Owner occupier housing finance commitments are split into four types: construction of dwellings ($1.8 billion), purchase of new dwellings ($1.0 billion), refinancing of established dwellings ($6.2 billion) and purchase of established dwellings ($11.0 billion).  Construction of dwellings and purchase of new dwellings rose over the month and were also the only commitment types higher year-on-year. </p>
<p>Lending for refinances in particular have been in a steady decline since December 2015, at that time there were $7.3 billion in commitments over the month with the $6.2 billion in February 2017 tracking -15.6 percent lower. </p>
<p>This does seem a little counter-intuitive given that since December 2015 there has been substantial repricing of mortgage rates since that time and investors have returned to the market which could have involved refinancing of their owner-occupied properties to fund the investment.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/12/chart-3-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/12/chart-3-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Lending to investors slowed markedly in February 2017 with the two components: new construction ($1.0 billion) and established dwellings ($11.9 billion) each recording a fall over the month. </p>
<p>Lending for construction was -13.6 percent lower in February while lending for established dwellings fell by -5.2 percent. </p>
<p>The decline in housing finance commitments predates the new policy announcement from APRA to lenders a week ago notifying them of changes to lending policies, in particular for interest-only lending which is popular amongst investors. </p>
<p>Although the letter was only recently published, the discussions about the lending policy changes have probably been ongoing with lenders for a number of months and may help to explain the fall in investor lending in February. </p>
<p>Over the next few months it will be interesting to see the direction of lending to investors, if it falls like it did after April 2015, it could lead to a slowdown in the rate of value growth in the housing market although there is little evidence of this occurring as yet.</p>
<p>Click to enlarge</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/12/chart-4-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The above chart shows the value of lending for new housing compared to the value for existing housing, note that refinances are excluded from this data.  New housing is defined as: owner occupier construction of dwellings, owner occupier purchase of new dwellings and investment construction of dwellings which totalled $3.9 billion in February 2017 compared to $22.9 billion for existing housing. </p>
<p>New housing accounted for 14.5 percent of total housing finance commitments over the month. Even though we are in the midst of a housing construction boom there has been no substantial increase in the value of finance commitments for new housing over recent years. Keep in mind though that there are substantially more established properties than new with the 9.8 million dwellings nationally only increasing by 1.8 percent over the past year.</p>
<p>The next few months of housing finance commitments data will be interesting to follow to see if the softness in investor demand continues.  Also with many lenders repricing mortgage rates since February there may be an increase in refinance activity which has been slowing since the end of 2015. </p>
<p>Overall the nature of the mortgage market is changing with higher interest rates and a fresh round of macroprudential controls recently implemented. The next few months should provide insight into whether these tools can ultimately slow some of the current exuberance being shown by investors.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him </em><a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2"><em>here</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Investor lending slows in February before the APRA crackdown was announced

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<p>Crowdfunding platform DomaCom have announced HALO Investment, a subsidiary of HALO Technologies, as a new investor.</p>
<p>They've subscribed to a placement for $500,000 and has subscribed to a further $700,000 worth of shares at ¢7.42 to take their investment to $1.2 million.</p>
<p>The placement puts HALO's investment at 16,172,507 shares.</p>
<p><a href="https://domacom.com.au" target="_blank">DomaCom</a> and HALO have also reached an in-principle agreement for a proposed capital raising.</p>
<p>There's a proposed further placement to HALO for further shares to a maximum of $1.8 million which would take them to over 24 million shares.</p>
<p>On the table is a proposed fully-underwritten non-renounceable rights issue to raise a further $3 million in November 2019 at an issue price of seven cents. The rights issue is proposed to be fully underwritten by Ascot Securities Pty Ltd.</p>
<p>The proposed capital-raisings are subject to execution of binding agreements with HALO and Ascot, which is expected to occur on or around Monday 30 September 2019. </p>
<p>The total amount to be raised by DomaCom during this recapitalisation process is expected to be approximately $6 million and will be used to fund DomaCom’s continued growth including investment in its platform, growing sales in the accumulation and retirement markets via its innovative products and general working capital requirements.</p>
<p> Arthur Naoumidis, DomaCom CEO, said that following the completion of the proposed capital raisings, DomaCom will be able to focus on building revenue by growing their funds under management.</p>
<p>"This has occurred at a pivotal time for our business as all our key products are now operational after 7 years of development," Naoumidis said.</p>
<p>“In addition to helping address our balance sheet, DomaCom has also secured a well-known financial services B2C channel for its fractional property product using the DomaCom Platform and this includes appointing HALO Technologies as Prime Broker exclusively for our secondary market.”</p>
<p>On completion of the capital raising transactions, DomaCom proposes to appoint HALO’s CEO Matthew Roberts and George Paxton to the board of DomaCom Limited as non-executive directors.</p>
<p>“We are very excited to be able to partner with this very innovative business and to be able to use our extensive investor distribution and tech capability to accelerate DomaCom’s growth and achieve a mutually beneficial outcome”, Roberts said.</p>
<p>“With over $2bn in Funds Under Advice in client portfolios uploaded on to the HALO platform and ownership of the MacroVue platform, through our many synergies, we believe that we are well positioned to drive the B2C and B2B distribution of both DomaCom’s secondary market and property syndications.”</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
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wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

DomaCom secures HALO Technologies as cornerstone investor

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<p>The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) announced plans today to remove the investor loan growth benchmark which was introduced in late 2014.</p>
<p>It intends to replace it with more permanent measures which it suggests with continue strengthened lending standards.</p>
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<p><span>The benchmark on interest-only lending, established in March 2017, will continue to apply until further notice. </span></p>
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<p>The 10 per cent benchmark on investor loan growth was a temporary measure, introduced in 2014 as part of a range of actions to reduce higher risk lending and improve practices.</p>
<p>Since then APRA said authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) have taken steps to improve the quality of lending, raise standards and increase capital resilience.</p>
<p>APRA has written to ADIs today to advise that it is now prepared to remove the investor growth benchmark, where the board of an ADI is able to provide assurance on the strength of their lending standards.</p>
<p>But any return to more rapid rates of investor loan growth would raise concerns.</p>
<p>"Such an environment could lead APRA to consider the need to apply the counter-cyclical capital buffer or some other industry-wide measure," it warned lenders. </p>
<p>For the 10 per cent benchmark to no longer apply, lenders will be expected to confirm that:</p>
<ul>
<li>lending has been below the investor loan growth benchmark for at least the past 6 months;</li>
<li>lending policies meet APRA’s guidance on serviceability; and</li>
<li>lending practices will be strengthened where necessary.</li>
</ul>
<p>As with previous housing-related measures, this approach has been taken in close consultation with the other members of the Council of Financial Regulators. With risks in the environment remaining heightened, it will be important for ADIs to maintain prudent standards and close any remaining gaps in lending practices.</p>
<p>APRA Chairman Wayne Byres said that while the announcement reflects improvements that ADIs have made to lending standards, there is more to do to strengthen the assessment of borrower expenses and existing debt commitments, and the oversight of lending outside of policy. </p>
<p>"The temporary benchmark on investor loan growth has served its purpose. Lending growth has moderated, standards have been lifted and oversight has improved. However, the environment remains one of heightened risk and there are still some practices that need to be further strengthened. APRA is therefore seeking assurances from ADI Boards that they will maintain a firm grip on the prudence of both policies and practices." </p>
<p>For ADIs that do not provide the required commitments to APRA, the investor loan growth benchmark will continue to apply.</p>
<p>As part of these measures, APRA also expects ADIs to develop internal portfolio limits on the proportion of new lending at very high debt-to-income levels, and policy limits on maximum debt-to-income levels for individual borrowers. This provides a simple backstop to complement the more complex and detailed serviceability calculation for individual borrowers, and takes into account the total borrowings of an applicant, rather than just the specific loan being applied for.</p>
<p>"In the current environment, APRA supervisors will continue to closely monitor any changes in lending standards.</p>
<p>"The benchmark on interest-only lending will also continue to apply. APRA will consider the need for further changes to its approach as conditions evolve, in consultation with the other members of the Council of Financial Regulators," Mr Byres said.</p>
<p> </p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

APRA moves to ease 10% lender growth restrictions

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<p>Slower investor demand as a result of APRA’s macro-prudential policy measures is having an impact on all major capital city apartment markets, but so too are other state and federal imposts on foreign buyers, according to JLL’s Apartment Market report for 4Q 2017. </p>
<p>But despite the slower demand, markets are still weathering the recent strong new supply additions "relatively well".</p>
<p>According to JLL, tight development finance conditions and slower pre-sale rates are seeing a self-regulation of supply pipelines and far less projects move into construction.</p>
<p>The amount of stock under construction across the five major capital city markets (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide) at the end of 3Q17 fell to 39,760 apartments, which has shrunk by around 10,000 apartments over the last two quarters.</p>
<p>JLL said the peak in supply was in 2017.</p>
<p>They expect around 25 percent less stock to be delivered in 2018 ensuring that the major markets do not move far into over-supply and that it is a relatively soft landing for the apartment market.</p>
<p>JLL’s Head of Residential Research, Leigh Warner said APRA’s intention in clamping down on investor lending was always to slow the housing market down, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p>"This has been successful, but the risk we are now facing is that the added imposts imposed by state governments and the Federal Government on foreign investors in residential property is slowing this important portion of demand by much more than intended.</p>
<p>“It appears that foreign investors that have already invested are still settling sales at present, albeit often over a longer than normal period. However, it is also clear new offshore demand has fallen sharply and this is particularly impacting some larger CBD projects and projects by foreign developers.”</p>
<p>Warner believes the markets are still showing "remarkable resilience" noting Melbourne continues to operate at low levels of rental vacancy and is seeing rental growth, while apartment prices were still growing in late 2017.</p>
<p>“Sydney too is holding up relatively well in the face of significantly slower Chinese demand than it has enjoyed over recent years.</p>
<p>"Apartment prices have flattened off and are falling in some locations where supply is particularly concentrated, but the rental market is still tight and the market still appears relatively balanced after years of under-supply.”</p>
<p> </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/1/31/NATIONAL.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><em> </em>Warner noted while the large Sydney and Melbourne markets are slowing and driving overall national trends, other markets remain at very different points in the cycle. </p>
<p>Adelaide and Canberra are less mature apartment markets, but both have seen much stronger apartment development and are slightly less progressed in the cycle than Sydney or Melbourne.</p>
<p>Perth and Brisbane are more advanced in the cycle and, after a very challenging 2017, both markets appear to be edging towards the trough in the cycle.</p>
<p>For Brisbane, JLL said the issue has been very much about supply levels, with a considerable amount built over the past two years.</p>
<p>However, Brisbane’s supply peak was in 2016 and a particularly tough development-financing environment will mean the pipeline will drop sharply from 2018 onwards.</p>
<p>Brisbane’s population growth is also picking up after several weak years following the end of the mining boom, which should also help soak up surplus supply.</p>
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Curtailed supply ensures soft landing for resilient apartment market: JLL

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<p>The latest data on property exposures of Australia’s authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADI) show that the perceived riskier areas of new mortgage lending continue to slow.  This is indicative of the macroprudential measures which have been implemented by APRA taking effect and slowing higher loan to valuation ratio (LVR) lending as well as the more recent crackdown on both investor and interest-only mortgage lending.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-12/2017-12-11-blogimg1.png" alt="2017-12-11--annualchangeinthevalueofnewoweneroccuperandivestorlending" width="570" height="198"></p>
<p> <br>The latest quarterly property exposures data released by APRA for the September 2017 quarter shows that ADIs provided mortgages worth $98.211 billion which was 3.3% higher than the value of lending over the same quarter last year.  These new mortgages were split between $67.217 billion for owner occupiers and $30.994 billion for investors.  The value of lending to investors was actually the lowest it has been since the March 2016 quarter.  The value of lending to investors fell by -9.1% over the quarter and is -6.6% lower year-on-year.  After most recently peaking over the December 2016 quarter at $35.572 billion in investor commitments, the value has fallen by -12.9% to September 2017.  While investor demand has fallen, the value of owner occupier mortgage commitments continues to rise to its highest quarterly value since December 2015.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-12/2017-12-11-blogimg2.png" alt="2017-12-11--quarterlyproportionofnewmortgagelendingforinterestonlypurposes" width="570" height="198"></p>
<p><br> The total value of interest-only lending over the September 2017 quarter was $16.603 billion which was -44.8% lower than the value over the June 2017 quarter and -52.8% lower than it was a year ago.  We have recently seen the implementation on the cap of new interest-only lending, limiting it to 30% of new mortgages.  Over the September 2017 quarter, interest-only mortgages accounted for 16.9% of new mortgage lending which was the lowest proportion on record and well down on the 30.5% the previous quarter.  It is a little surprising to see the proportion of lending to investors fall so much over the quarter, especially considering that the cap is 30%.  This potentially indicates that the higher mortgage rates being incurred by interest-only borrowers are actually curtailing demand more so than the cap.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-12/2017-12-11-blogimg3.png" alt="2017-12-11--proportionofquarterlynewmortagelendingbylvrband" width="570" height="198"></p>
<p>The changes to macroprudential policies has resulted in (not-surprisingly) more prudent borrowing.  As a result there has been an ongoing decline in new mortgages being written on high loan to valuation ratios (LVRs).  Over the quarter, $6.676 billion in mortgages were for LVRs above 90%.  Based on this figure, the value of mortgages on LVRs above 90% was -2.3% lower over the quarter, -13.3% lower over the year and it was the lowest quarterly value of mortgages greater than 90% LVR since March 2011.  Over the quarter, the value of mortgages with an LVR of between 80% and 90% was $13.547 billion which was -4.1% lower over the quarter but 3.6% higher year-on-year.  Over the September 2017 quarter, an historic low 20.6% of new mortgages had an LVR greater than 80%.</p>
<p>This latest data highlights that there appears to be a much more prudent approach being taken towards investment and interest-only mortgage lending.  Of course, the macroprudential policies implemented by APRA were specifically targeting these segments of lending which suggests that they are being successful.  Over the coming quarters the most interesting developments to watch will be whether investor lending continues to decline, which we suspect it will.  It will also be interesting to see whether interest-only lending rebounds back to levels closer to the 30% limit or if they continue to languish at much lower levels. If it is the former it indicates that potentially lenders tightened too hard and that there remains demand for this product.  Meanwhile, if it is the latter it suggests that demand for interest-only lending has reduced.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2">here</span></a>.</em></p>
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IO loans hit record low: Cameron Kusher

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<div>If anyone doubted APRA's commitment or ability to quell interest-only lending, then they definitely shouldn't any more.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>New interest-only loans have been smashed to smithereens, down from 45.6 per cent of the market at the 2015 peak to just 16.9 per cent.</div>
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<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zswlpvzps3E/WigMRNV_yAI/AAAAAAAAnVU/lHVGM4KBkwwiIzu2Db1M_Wu_ZRql-JL3QCLcBGAs/s1600/IO.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zswlpvzps3E/WigMRNV_yAI/AAAAAAAAnVU/lHVGM4KBkwwiIzu2Db1M_Wu_ZRql-JL3QCLcBGAs/s640/IO.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="828" data-original-width="1375"></a></div>
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<div>Banks continue to wind back high loan-to-value ratio (LVR) lending, continuing a trend that has been underway for 4 years now. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Property buyers will not only need to pay back principal, they'll need to have a decent deposit too.</div>
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<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/---2itDzQ4n0/WigMRKZLz0I/AAAAAAAAnVY/1Zi2PyTRlrwptGVf9ipTWhgRF6OfBmvEQCLcBGAs/s1600/APRA1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/---2itDzQ4n0/WigMRKZLz0I/AAAAAAAAnVY/1Zi2PyTRlrwptGVf9ipTWhgRF6OfBmvEQCLcBGAs/s640/APRA1.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1381"></a></div>
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<div>Despite this, the total value of residential mortgages on ADI books rose by +6.9 per cent over the year to September, as the pendulum swings from investors to homebuyers.</div>
<div> </div>
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<div>A seismic shift in the market then, as more borrowers will now be compelled to pay back some debt.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With interest-only lending peaking in 2015, the greatest volume of rollovers will occur in 2020 - <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/p-cliff" target="_blank">see here</a> for my thoughts on what might happen then. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Uid2rCJIsEs/WigSMe3FNOI/AAAAAAAAnVo/gXeo4S5y4DUBHMnxjtL28IR_T3Sf-dbAwCLcBGAs/s1600/lightning-1082080_1920.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Uid2rCJIsEs/WigSMe3FNOI/AAAAAAAAnVo/gXeo4S5y4DUBHMnxjtL28IR_T3Sf-dbAwCLcBGAs/s640/lightning-1082080_1920.jpg" width="640" height="422" data-original-height="1060" data-original-width="1600"></a>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p><span class="s1"> </span></p>
</div>
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APRA strikes back to quell IO lending

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<p>The trend in housing finance eased a bit, to a total of around $33 billion in September.</p>
<div>The value of investor loans was possibly pumped up a little in the preceding month by refinancing activity, but the monthly trend remains steadily down to about $12 billion, as tweaks to lending standards continue to lean against activity. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The $33 billion result and the related easing in investor loans were variously described as a "walloping fall", "down the gurgler", a "staggering drop", and even plain old "grim".<br><br>A grim $33 billion it is!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Recall that this result comes precisely one month after investor loans had "bounced back", "spiked", "staged a comeback", and all the rest of it. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I guess that goes with the territory when you have to find something new and exciting to say every month. Anyhoo, here's the chart, in all of its walloping grimness!</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-RXhTal2egbw/WgQcDjdlLJI/AAAAAAAAm8A/EM7c07RsGmoFcpckUpApGUc1EcdbgYz4QCEwYBhgL/s1600/FHB4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-RXhTal2egbw/WgQcDjdlLJI/AAAAAAAAm8A/EM7c07RsGmoFcpckUpApGUc1EcdbgYz4QCEwYBhgL/s1600/FHB4.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-RXhTal2egbw/WgQcDjdlLJI/AAAAAAAAm8A/EM7c07RsGmoFcpckUpApGUc1EcdbgYz4QCEwYBhgL/s640/FHB4.jpg" width="640" height="384" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1379"></a></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Owner-occupiers continue to settle on the near-record levels of new stock, with commitments for new dwellings continuing to surge to the highest level since 1978. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-p0iwcb5foU8/WgQcFwi3dZI/AAAAAAAAm8M/HVd6wMYM5dMTHv3NJwZH0HUNR1ci7Q_WgCEwYBhgL/s1600/FHB5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-p0iwcb5foU8/WgQcFwi3dZI/AAAAAAAAm8M/HVd6wMYM5dMTHv3NJwZH0HUNR1ci7Q_WgCEwYBhgL/s1600/FHB5.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-p0iwcb5foU8/WgQcFwi3dZI/AAAAAAAAm8M/HVd6wMYM5dMTHv3NJwZH0HUNR1ci7Q_WgCEwYBhgL/s640/FHB5.jpg" width="640" height="394" data-original-height="833" data-original-width="1353"></a></div>
<p><br><span>Homebuyer demand still looks to be strongest in Victoria, mirroring demographic trends.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-WFHGj0lnfLk/WgQuyfhqm-I/AAAAAAAAm8s/eUVWSyM-6qoVp5cURmis0RSPxhfrt3uKQCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
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<p> </p>
<div>The trend number of owner-occupier commitments in Western Australia has been edging slightly higher for the past 5 months, suggesting moderately improving conditions. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">First homebuyers return</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>September is a shorter month than August, as well as playing host to a public holiday and a Grand Final.  </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Not surprisingly, then, i<span>n original terms the number of first homebuyer loans pulled back slightly from a 93-month high.</span>
</div>
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<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-iGuLSAW2avw/WgQcEy-2ExI/AAAAAAAAm8E/7Vs7i_LKCcIiZoLwxGBNm3vONtHvif2OgCLcBGAs/s1600/FHB2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
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<div class="separator">As a share of housing finance commitments, however, first homebuyer loans rose again, now levitating from 17.2 per cent to 17.4 per cent, to notch a 4½-year high. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The return of the first homebuyer has largely been driven by incentives in New South Wales and Victoria.  </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Despite the reported monthly decline, in truth first homebuyer numbers were markedly higher over the third quarter in both NSW (58 per cent) and VIC (32 per cent) - it all depends on the preferred narrative, though the figures should be watched closely for revisions.</div>
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<div class="separator">On average, first homebuyers are borrowing a little less than a year earlier, perhaps implying that, at the margin, the incentives have encouraged more wavering buyers onto the ladder.</div>
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<div class="separator">For non-first homebuyers loan sizes are now rising again, however, as they are wont to do once markets get to grips with new lending rules. </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Centralising demand</span></strong></div>
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<div>Nothing particularly unexpected to see here, with investor loans declining in response to tighter lending criteria, trending down to sit about 8 per cent lower than at the end of last year, in turn leading to a fairly steady result overall. </div>
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<div>The headline numbers suggest housing finance is flattening, as demanded by market commentators and regulators alike. </div>
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<div>This suggests it will become more challenging over the next few years for investors to find outperforming markets, following a very easy ride over the past decade, when simply buying properties in Sydney resulted in jackpot returns. </div>
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<div>Where to look?</div>
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<div>Outstanding 2016 Census research from Terry Rawnsley at SGE Economics &amp; Planning showed that the capital cities created 900,000 new jobs over the five years to 2016, while the whole of regional Australia combined created close to zero. Zip.</div>
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<div>Sydney alone created nearly 500,000 jobs jet over the past decade, with the inner suburbs accounting for a disproportionately high share of the employment growth.</div>
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<div>Between 2011 and 2016, total Sydney employment boomed by 342,000, while employment in regional New South Wales went backwards, falling by 17,000. </div>
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<div>Drilling down a level, Rawnsley found that employment growth has become more heavily focused on the inner cities of the largest metropolises, especially Sydney and Melbourne. </div>
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<div>It's worth remembering that these figures comprise a period where resources construction declined, so the contrast over the next five years may not be quite so stark. </div>
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<div>Still, with employment growth exploding in the inner cities and investor loans being tightened, upwards pressure returning on rents seems likely in 2018. </div>
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Finding something exciting to say every month on home loan financing: Pete Wargent

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<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its Financial Aggregates figures for the month of September 2017, which revealed a softer month for credit growth ex-housing, with total credit growth still tracking at +5.4% over the year. </p>
<p>Annual business credit growth is no more than ticking along (+4.3%), while personal credit remains in negative territory. </p>
<p>Housing credit expanded by +6.6% over the year to September, actually a little faster than the +6.4% pace seen a year earlier, contrary to what you might think.</p>
<p>However, a closer inspection shows that the monthly rate of growth was +0.48% in seasonally adjusted terms, the slowest increase since March 2016, so lending constraints are gradually taking effect.</p>
<p>Total housing credit is now sitting at a tick under $1.7 trillion.</p>
<p>Still powering along for now then, although there has been a concerted push to get borrowers off interest-only products lately. </p>
<p><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VyrolIM2qwM/WfiUErmafEI/AAAAAAAAmzQ/qJxnfgl2pGsGhtlVvAkW5Mc1SrihyYiVwCEwYBhgL/s1600/RBA.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VyrolIM2qwM/WfiUErmafEI/AAAAAAAAmzQ/qJxnfgl2pGsGhtlVvAkW5Mc1SrihyYiVwCEwYBhgL/s640/RBA.jpg" width="640" height="380" data-original-height="833" data-original-width="1400"></a></p>
<p>The purpose of some $59 billion of loans has now been switched from investor to owner-occupier since July 2015.</p>
<p>The RBA data showed that after accounting for loan switching, the growth in investor credit slowed to +7.2%, with further declines almost certain to follow. </p>
<p><strong>Watch your speed</strong></p>
<p>APRA also released its monthly ADI figures, which showed investor credit growth slowing to a crawl - implying that the non-banks have picked up some market share in this sector - with the total value of owner-occupier loans up by +0.48% in the month. </p>
<p>None of the major banks is now even remotely close the 10% 'speed limit' or regulatory threshold for investment lending, with only Westpac of the main players still pushing this sector along. </p>
<p><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Q1KGns0a0u4/Wfjbk122nmI/AAAAAAAAmzw/wMne730nv6QKoU4k3kOGWmAuv6DoPzvZQCLcBGAs/s1600/APRA.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Q1KGns0a0u4/Wfjbk122nmI/AAAAAAAAmzw/wMne730nv6QKoU4k3kOGWmAuv6DoPzvZQCLcBGAs/s640/APRA.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="827" data-original-width="1368"></a></p>
<p>A number of the second-tier lenders, including Suncorp, Macquarie, and others, have significantly cut back their investment mortgage exposure, perhaps suggesting some regulatory pressure. </p>
<p><strong>The wrap</strong></p>
<p>While total housing credit is still rising at a solid pace, investor lending is clearly being snipped back sharply.</p>
<p>With population growth now tracking at historically high levels <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/09/population-growth" target="_blank">as I looked at here</a>, it remains to be seen whether rents begin to rise sharply in the two largest cities in 2018 (personally, I believe that this is likely, especially in Melbourne, though few appear to agree with me at this juncture). </p>
<p>The major banks are now growing their investment loan books at way below the arbitrary 10% cap, so theoretically at least investor loans could begin to feature more prominently again next year, but this may need the regulator to remove its foot from lenders' throats.</p>
<p><strong>New home sales plunge </strong></p>
<p>In other news, new home sales continued the decline begun in 2015 with another -6.1% drop in September 2017, according to Housing Industry Association (HIA) figures.</p>
<p><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sgUUszsRNUI/Wfjb5Uoa7AI/AAAAAAAAmz0/hivavx8-7-k1Cv8pYtl358qVwZSnONLdQCLcBGAs/s1600/HIA.jpg"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sgUUszsRNUI/Wfjb5Uoa7AI/AAAAAAAAmz0/hivavx8-7-k1Cv8pYtl358qVwZSnONLdQCLcBGAs/s640/HIA.jpg" width="640" height="404" data-original-height="461" data-original-width="727"></a></p>
<p>The drop was driven by a significant -16.7% drop in multi-unit sales.</p>
<p>New home sales are a leading indicator for building approvals, and following the longest ever upturn in building there now comes the dwelling construction downturn. </p>
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RBA data shows the brakes on lending: Pete Wargent

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<p>AFG's latest Mortgage Index results released today shows that major structural change in the Australian lending landscape is continuing. </p>
<p>“Today’s results paint a very different picture from this time last year,” said AFG CEO <a href="https://www.afgonline.com.au/corporate/board-of-directors/david-bailey-ceo/">David Bailey</a>.</p>
<p>“Regulator-led tightening of investor lending has led to a further drop in investor volume and they are now sitting at an all time low of 29% of the market.</p>
<p>The shift in lender appetite from investors to upgraders is also evident in average loan size. “The national average home loan is now sitting at an all time high of $491,000,” said Mr Bailey. “This increase can be explained by the fact that people generally spend more for their primary place of residence than they do for an investment property.</p>
<p>The number of people looking to refinance has dropped to 25%, whilst those keen to upgrade their living situation is increasing with upgraders now representing 41% of the market. “This is also likely to be a reflection of the lack of lending options on the table for investors wanting to refinance, as lenders pull back from the investor market to meet regulator demands,” said Mr Bailey.</p>
<p>The major lenders’ share of the market is also down to a post-GFC low of 64.4% as borrowers continue to explore alternatives outside of the major bank owned brands.</p>
<p>Looking at loan type, fixed rates are now at 26.3% of all loans which confirms many Australians are anticipating that the next interest rate move will be up,” said Mr Bailey.</p>
<p>First home buyers are enjoying their third consecutive quarter in double digits since the beginning of 2014. “National market share for first home buyers has lifted to 13% across the last quarter, helped in part by new stamp duty concessions kicking in on July 1 for this segment of the market in Victoria and New South Wales.”</p>
<p>Victoria continues to set the pace with lodgement volumes in that state up 27% on the first quarter of last year whilst every other state has lost momentum to varying degrees. The strength of the Victorian home market is also evidenced in the average loan size for that state, which is 5% higher than it was at the same time last year.</p>
<p><a class="image_link fancybox image" href="https://www.afgonline.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/mortgage-index-financial-year-2018-quarter-1.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-19646" src="https://www.afgonline.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/mortgage-index-financial-year-2018-quarter-1-1024x438.png" alt="" width="1024" height="438"></a></p>
<p class="p3">“Overall, volumes are up on the previous two quarters, however, compared to the same time last year they are flat. This translates into the view that regulator-led changes are being felt everywhere except Victoria,” concluded Mr Bailey.</p>
<p class="p3">To download the full report <a href="https://www.afgonline.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/afg-mortgage-index-october-quarter-2017.pdf" target="_blank">click here.</a></p>
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