A landmark former orphanage site in Surrey Hills could be transformed into a new residential community under plans lodged by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/antipodean-land-developments">Antipodean Land Developments</a> that would deliver 76 apartments and townhouses while restoring some of the suburb's most significant heritage buildings.

The burgeoninng Melbourne-based developer has submitted plans for the 9,158 sqm site at 1 Kent Road and 24 Durham Road, home to the former St Joseph's Home for Destitute Children, a historic institutional complex dating back to the late 19th century. The proposal seeks to adaptively reuse several heritage buildings while introducing two new four-storey residential buildings set within extensive landscaped grounds.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> and Kerstin Thompson Architects, the project has been conceived as a contemporary residential village embedded within a restored heritage precinct. The development team describes the design approach as "The Village in the Garden," with new buildings positioned among mature landscaping by OCULUS and significant heritage structures.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="44ec8c1b-c0b6-44ae-859e-5811b3e6a023" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%281%29.png?VersionId=p.p1_KFh4iQoV4nisdnPfQBAsWNi7m79" />

The proposal would deliver 76 dwellings comprising a mix of apartments and duplex-style residences, significantly increasing housing supply on one of the largest privately held residential landholdings in Surrey Hills. The development includes 127 car spaces, 24 bicycle spaces and more than 1,000 sqm of communal amenity, with the existing chapel building earmarked for conversion into resident facilities.

According to the planning submission, the project centres on the restoration and adaptive reuse of the site's most significant heritage assets, including the original c.1889 St Joseph's building, the chapel designed by architect Augustus Andrew Fritsch, and the historic brick perimeter walls and entry gates. The proposal also incorporates the retention of other contributory buildings including the former infirmary and school building.

Tract Consultants, in the planning report accompanying the application, said the scheme had been shaped through extensive heritage analysis and design development.

"The shared vision for the Site by the project team has culminated in a scheme which successfully breathes life back into a historic site while delivering upon the objectives of Victoria's Housing Statement in a carefully curated and contextually responsive manner."

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7263b7d8-95ea-400f-9531-6ca7d22c3c33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%282%29.png?VersionId=4cR1tiWOsDpgxEOwZi5vVFcyvvOsYkIE" />

The proposal is being assessed under Victoria's Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway. As part of the application, three per cent of the project's residential development cost would be contributed to the Social Housing Growth Fund. The development would also provide a diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom residences targeting a broader range of buyers than typically found in Surrey Hills' detached housing market.

Sustainability initiatives include an anticipated 66 per cent BESS score, natural cross-ventilation to 80 per cent of apartments, 28 per cent deep soil landscaping and a canopy cover outcome exceeding local planning requirements. The proposal also sets aside more than 1,083 sqm for communal indoor and outdoor resident amenity spaces.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="33fad46f-fe26-4d0a-acfd-6b776e1c6a3d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design.png?VersionId=D9F6WVSyYCtGvSUmith35LRp6R7PQkw_" />

Planning documents describe the property as one of the largest underutilised residential sites in Surrey Hills, arguing it presents a rare opportunity to introduce "missing middle" housing in an established inner-eastern suburb while preserving and revitalising a significant heritage precinct.

Antipodean Land Developments has built a reputation for design-focused residential projects across Melbourne, particularly in the medium-density sector. Previous developments include Neighbourhood in Brunswick East, delivered with Breathe Architecture, and Balfe Park Lane, designed by Kerstin Thompson Architects.

They've been very active in site acquisition as they build out their future development pipeline. They recently launched Thornubury House, 45 apartments above a mix of commercial, retail, and food and beverage tenancies, and have plans for a boutique project in Fitzroy and another <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/antipodean-plan-apartments-for-deepdenes-missing-middle-on-whitehorse-road">"missing middle" project</a> on Deepdene's Whitehorse Road.

Joel Robinson

First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills

Developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/auyin-property-development">Auyin</a> is the latest to turn to the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program in an effort to secure approval for its long-planned, mixed-use project in Elsternwick.

In 2018, Auyin lodged plans with Glen Eira City Council for a 14-storey building, however Council approved a reduced eight-storey scheme. A subsequent VCAT appeal in 2019 upheld the eight-storey height limit.

The project was later amended to nine storeys, but Auyin is now seeking to revive something closer to its original vision. The developer argues that the planning context has evolved significantly over the past decade, particularly within the Elsternwick Activity Centre, where higher-density development has increasingly been encouraged along Glen Huntly Road.

The proposal would transform the 1,239 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/7-12-horne-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">7-15 Horne Street</a>, opposite Elsternwick Railway Station, into a 13-storey residential and retail development designed by CBG Architects, with 40 apartments

The site currently comprises three commercial properties.

<img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5f465dd4-509b-4082-a669-0253b313914b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20podium.png?VersionId=72frWi0SmQ5AVJ3ARRhX5ILUYObhTm7x" />

The proposed apartment mix comprises 25 two-bedroom and 15 three-bedroom residences above 200 sqm of retail space at ground level. Residents would have access to a 90 sqm wellness facility, a 351 sqm communal indoor and outdoor terrace on the third level, and extensive landscaped areas throughout the development. A publicly accessible 135 sqm plaza would be created on the north-east corner of the site, providing seating, landscaping, and a new gathering space adjoining Horne Street.

The design adopts a four-storey podium that references the finer-grain character of the surrounding streetscape, with the upper tower recessed behind generous setbacks on all boundaries.

<img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e637e763-2abc-4c34-a0aa-5c7ad36fae18" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20open.png?VersionId=J1AoOpZgTyaF.KeeFSX6lMjEScX8KKRi" />

A key element of the proposal is the reconfiguration and widening of the surrounding laneways. Vehicle access would be retained from Lois Lane, with upgraded pedestrian connections linking Ross Street and Horne Street. The development would provide 58 residential car spaces, two retail car spaces, and 52 bicycle spaces across two basement levels and ground-floor facilities.

Architecturally, the building draws inspiration from the established character of Elsternwick Village. The façade combines dark charcoal brickwork, textured concrete, bronze-toned metal detailing, and extensive planting integrated into podium and tower levels. The design also incorporates a chamfered corner treatment and publicly accessible plaza intended to strengthen pedestrian activity around the station precinct.

Elsternwick's last new development completion was&nbsp;EVA Elsternwick by Pitard late last year. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/milieu-property">Milieu</a> is working away on its nature-led neighbourhood, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/elsternwick-gardens-by-milieu-8-gordon-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">Elsternwick Gardens</a>, on Gordon Street, with its first stage expected to complete next year.

First look: Auyin seeks mixed-use apartment project in growing Elsternwick Activity Centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/otium-parkdale-123-125-como-parade-east-parkdale-vic-3195">Otium Parkdale</a>, the 13-residence boutique development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/huxtable-property">Huxtable Property</a>, has entered its final stages of delivery, with completion expected within the coming month and more than half of the residences sold.

The Como Parade East project is nearing the finish line at a time when opportunities to purchase new apartments in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parkdale-vic-3195">Parkdale</a> remain exceptionally limited. Fewer than 10 per cent of dwellings in the bayside suburb are apartments, making developments like Otium a relatively rare addition to a market traditionally dominated by detached housing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5427]

The three-level development comprises 13 residences, including ten two-bedroom apartments and three larger three-bedroom homes, all positioned above a secure basement car park.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/almeida-architects">Almeida Architects</a> with a strong connection to its coastal surroundings, Otium combines red brick, exposed concrete and dark metal detailing with integrated landscaping and greenery. Expansive glazing, generous balconies and terraces have been incorporated throughout the design to maximise natural light and reinforce indoor-outdoor living.

Inside, the residences feature engineered European oak flooring, natural and reconstituted stone benchtops, Bosch kitchen appliances, ducted heating and cooling, lift access and secure entry systems. The larger three-bedroom residences on the upper level have been designed with house-like proportions, while the two-bedroom apartments prioritise functionality, flexibility and low-maintenance living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5421]

The project is now in its final stages, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/labco">Labco</a> completing the remaining landscaping and external finishing works following the completion of the residences' interiors.

Otium's location within the heart of Parkdale continues to underpin its appeal. Residents will be just steps from local cafés, restaurants, shops and the newly elevated Parkdale Station, while the beach is less than a kilometre away.

With the project tracking ahead of schedule, buyers can currently secure a residence with a five per cent deposit and benefit from settlement terms of up to eight months. The advanced stage of construction also provides buyers with the opportunity to walk through the near-complete residences and experience the quality and finishes firsthand ahead of completion.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134974]

Otium Parkdale enters final month before completion as rare apartment opportunity nears sellout

A new boutique apartment development is entering the market in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chermside-qld-4032">Chermside</a>, with Brisbane-based developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ausdev">Ausdev</a> bringing 33 residences to a well-connected pocket of Brisbane's north.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/parkdrive-apartments-chermside-25-sammells-drive-chermside-qld-4032">Parkdrive Apartments</a>, at 25 Sammells Drive, will comprise a mix of one- and two-bedroom residences positioned within walking distance of Westfield Chermside, The Prince Charles Hospital, and Bradbury Park.

Established in 1989, Ausdev has a long-standing presence across both development and construction, with Parkdrive Apartments representing its latest residential project in Brisbane's northern suburbs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363778]

The development has been designed around open-plan living and natural light, with residences featuring stone benchtops, timber cabinetry, BOSCH appliances, and private balconies that extend the living areas outdoors.

Kitchens are positioned as the centrepiece of the homes, incorporating natural material palettes and integrated appliances, while bathrooms have been designed with a focus on functionality and understated finishes.

Residents will have access to a communal barbecue and entertaining area on Level 3, providing shared outdoor space within the development. Secure parking and lift access are also incorporated into the building.

The project will deliver a limited collection of 33 apartments, with one-bedroom residences priced from $749,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363782]

Beyond the building itself, the location places residents within easy reach of several of Chermside's key amenities. Bradbury Park is around 350 metres away, while Westfield Chermside is approximately 1.3 kilometres from the site. The Prince Charles Hospital is located within 750 metres, and the Chermside Bus Interchange is around 1.5 kilometres away, providing connections across Brisbane.

Parkdrive Apartments adds to the growing residential pipeline in Chermside, a suburb that continues to evolve as a major retail, healthcare, and transport hub for Brisbane's north.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152125]

Ausdev introduces boutique Parkdrive Apartments to Chermside's growing centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/skymark-group">Skymark</a>'s boutique Cronulla development Solis has secured a 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy through Resilience Insurance, providing buyers of the 16-residence building on Ewos Parade with structural and waterproofing protection that extends a decade beyond the building's completion.

Currently under construction and due for completion in late 2027, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/solis-cronulla-8-ewos-parade-cronulla-nsw-2230">Solis</a> is one of a small number of new developments in the Sutherland Shire to carry Resilience LDI coverage, a distinction that carries increasing weight as buyer confidence in the off-the-plan sector continues to be shaped by how developers stand behind their product.

Latent Defects Insurance, which entered the Australian market in 2022 when Resilience Insurance was approved to offer the cover, protects buyers against major structural or waterproofing defects for ten years post-completion. Unlike traditional statutory warranties, it operates as a first-resort policy, if a covered defect arises, the insurer responds directly, without the buyer needing to pursue the builder or developer through a lengthy claims process.

Resilience Insurance CEO Corey Nugent has noted that the product addresses something fundamental to the new apartment market.

"The overarching feedback from prospective buyers in the new development space is that they want more confidence and assurances around the quality of the build," Nugent says.

"Resilience Insurance Latent Defects Insurance not only gives them complete peace of mind for 10 years, but it shows the developer they are buying from is standing by their product."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370898]

For Solis, the Resilience LDI policy adds a meaningful layer of accountability to an already considered project. The development comprises nine two-bedroom and seven three-bedroom residences, including one dual-level three-bedroom apartment, across a five-storey building on Ewos Parade, positioned between Shelly Beach and South Cronulla.

Garden apartments connect directly to private landscaped courtyards, while upper-level homes capture beach views to the east from level four and above.&nbsp;

All 16 residences include at least one balcony or courtyard, and select apartments on the upper floors feature bar areas and secondary flexible living spaces.

Hiba Sander, Managing Director of Skymark, says Solis offers a rare balance, nestled between the quiet beauty of secluded beaches and the lively charm of South Cronulla's esplanade.

"It's a place to choose your pace and live gracefully, seaside'," Sander says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370900]

The architecture, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ida-design-group">IDA Design Group</a>'s Michael Trinh, draws from the natural erosion patterns of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/cronulla-nsw-2230">Cronulla</a>'s sandstone headlands, translating the organic forms of the coastline into soft curves, pavilion-style massing, and a material palette chosen for longevity in a salt-tinged environment.&nbsp;

Textured natural stone, soft renders, and timber-look battens reference the tones of the surrounding cliffs, while the building has been oriented to maximise natural light and passive ventilation, with primary living spaces facing north and east to capture morning sun and sea breezes.

"At Solis, our aim was to create architecture that feels quietly confident, grounded in natural materials like stone and timber, and elevated by light and landscape," Trinh says.&nbsp;

"The buildings are designed to sit gently within their coastal surrounds, with expansive glazing and abundant greenery creating a seamless dialogue between inside and out."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370897]

Interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hot-black">Hot Black</a> carry the same material language through to every room. Kitchens feature integrated Gaggenau appliances, sculpted stone benchtops, and Lo &amp; Co joinery, while bathrooms feature natural stone, timber, and brushed metal finishes.&nbsp;

Hot Black Founder and Design Director Sophie Safrin describes the intent as one of considered restraint: "At Solis, every detail has been thoughtfully considered to create a timeless coastal retreat, calm, refined, and effortlessly liveable. From natural finishes to seamless indoor-outdoor flow, Solis offers a quiet elegance that's deeply connected to its surroundings.

The landscape, designed by Julian Brady of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/sitedesignstudios">Site Design Studios</a>, treats green space as an integral part of the resident experience rather than an afterthought.&nbsp;

"Gentle curves and layered native plantings mirror the ebb and flow of the ocean," Julian Brady says, "creating a serene connection between architecture and place."&nbsp;

Coco Republic has provided bespoke furniture packages tailored to the project's coastal palette.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370899]

Skymark has an established track record in the Sutherland Shire, with a portfolio spanning Cronulla, Woolooware and Burraneer that includes Isla, Sylva, Bask, Shells, Sula and Mist. Securing LDI on Solis reflects a broader shift in how the developer is positioning its buildings to buyers, at a time when Resilience Insurance expects the policy to become mandatory in New South Wales by 2028.

Sales at Solis are launching soon through Ray White Projects, with an official event scheduled for 11 June. Enquire for more information.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150499]

Skymark takes out 10-year Resilience Insurance LDI at Solis Cronulla

International Students

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The university sector faces cumulative losses of up to A$19 billion over the next three years due to lost international student revenue.
Modelling from the <a href="http://www.mitchellinstitute.org.au/higher-education-funding-report-final-april-2020/">Mitchell Institute</a> shows the next big hit will come mid-year when $2 billion in annual tuition fees is wiped from the sector as international students are unable to travel to Australia to start their courses for second semester.
Such losses are not just a university problem. <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/5368.0.55.0032017-18?OpenDocument">ABS data show</a> for every $1 lost in university tuition fees, there is another $1.15 lost in the broader economy due to international student spending.
This means the Australian economy could lose more than $40 billion by 2023 because of reduced numbers of higher education international students.
We estimate each six-monthly intake missed due to closed borders will deliver an annual economic blow comparable to when Australia’s <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/automotive/report">auto manufacturing industry shut down</a> (worth around $5 billion), or the loss of Australia’s $4.1 billion <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/7503.0">annual vegetable crop</a>.
Our modelling shows there will be no quick return to pre-coronavirus normality either, or “<a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/why-morrison-dropped-the-snap-back-strategy-20200408-p54i3t">snapback</a>” as Prime Minister Scott Morrison described it.
Missed intakes disrupt the pipeline of international students – who usually study for two to three years – so lost revenue continues to impact budgets for several years.
Forecasts tell a disturbing story
We looked at <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/finance-publication">university finance data</a> and <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/International-Student-Data/Pages/default_annual.aspx">enrolment trends</a>. We modelled two scenarios: one with a relatively quick recovery of international student enrolments beginning in 2021, and the other with an extended travel ban that meant no new international students until 2022.
Both scenarios were disastrous for the higher education sector.
The first showed the university sector losing about $10 billion, though international student revenue would largely return to normal by 2023.
But the second scenario, incorporating extended travel bans, had a longer-lasting effect. With the government announcing the borders are likely to remain closed for “<a href="https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/australians-may-not-be-able-to-travel-overseas-until-2021-due-to-coronavirus/news-story/5b29c380cef922d256fec79b85b261ab">quite some time to come</a>” the worst-case scenario seems more likely.
<hr>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328319/original/file-20200416-192762-ts99nc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328319/original/file-20200416-192762-ts99nc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
<hr>
Over the Easter weekend, the government <a href="https://www.dese.gov.au/covid-19/higher-education/higher-education-faq">announced a package</a> that guarantees funding for the estimated enrolments of domestic students in 2020, despite whether the actual enrolments are fewer than estimated. The package includes about <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-12/government-announces-coronavirus-higher-education-relief-package/12142752">$100 million</a> in waived regulatory fees and funding for an additional 20,000 short online courses in national priority areas such as nursing and IT.
This will fall well short of plugging the gap international students will leave behind.
Based on historical funding rates per student, the government would need to fund another 1.9 million short courses, and universities find the same number of students to enrol, to make up for the projected losses in international student revenue.
Financial position of universities
This modelling was part of the Mitchell Institute’s more in-depth <a href="http://www.mitchellinstitute.org.au/higher-education-funding-report-final-april-2020/">investigation into higher education funding</a>. Our analysis shows total university revenue from international students grew by 137% over the past decade. More than 40% of the sector’s annual student revenue now comes from international students.
International students delivered almost $9 billion in annual revenue to universities in 2018, accounting for around 58% of student revenue at two of Australia’s most prestigious universities, the University of Melbourne and the University of Sydney.
Despite the revenue windfall, growth has been uneven. Group of Eight universities experienced the biggest growth in international students, tripling their international student revenue over the past decade. For other universities, particularly smaller and regional universities, revenue grew at a much slower rate.
Even though some balance sheets are healthy, there is limited ability to weather a protracted downturn. University surpluses were only A$1.5 billion across the whole sector in 2018. The sudden and steep decline in international student enrolments is a significant economic challenge for universities.
The outlook for universities
Australia’s universities have <a href="https://meanjin.com.au/essays/the-australian-idea-of-a-university">relied on international students</a> as a source of growth for a long time. While the amount the universities receive per domestic student has been virtually flat in real terms over the past decade, fees each international student pays have increased by over 50%.
With this revenue stream suddenly threatened, the education experience of domestic students will suffer. Universities will need to make <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/12/australian-universities-warn-covid-19-relief-package-not-enough-to-stop-21000-jobs-losses">deep cuts to staff</a> and courses without further assistance.
This will come at a time when Australia will need its higher education sector as part of any COVID-19 recovery. It is likely demand from domestic students for university places will rise because of workers looking to re-skill and up-skill.
University enrolments from domestic students have increased <a href="https://andrewnorton.net.au/2020/03/25/predicting-student-numbers-during-the-covid-19-recession-2021-could-be-an-unexpected-peak-year/">during previous recessions</a> and the federal education minister has encouraged those who are out of work to undertake study.
Also, one quarter of school leavers usually take a gap year to work or travel. With those plans looking unlikely, there may be an increase in school leavers wanting to study.
But despite the extra funding for 20,000 short courses, universities are unable to respond fully to <a href="https://theconversation.com/demand-driven-funding-for-universities-is-frozen-what-does-this-mean-and-should-the-policy-be-restored-116060">any changes in demand</a>. Caps introduced in 2017 still remain that effectively limit the number of places universities can offer.
Increasing capacity in the tertiary sector by removing the caps on university places would assist universities to deal with the coronavirus crisis.
Universities play an important role in our society, and they will bring future revenue into the economy when international student numbers eventually recover. Australia will need to make further decisions about how much we want to support our universities during this crisis.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136251/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-hurley-342847">Peter Hurley</a>, Policy Fellow, Mitchell Institute, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/victoria-university-1175">Victoria University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-universities-could-lose-19-billion-in-the-next-3-years-our-economy-will-suffer-with-them-136251">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Australian universities could lose $19 billion in the next 3 years.

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EXPERT OBSERVER
<div>Net permanent and long-term arrivals sat at +299,670 over the year to October 2019, pointing towards strong ongoing population growth. </div>
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EoVcdJyQ2XA/XfHkL_dhFYI/AAAAAAAAzVo/9GUyowwMG4A1DQCcZWrdwf39145Je7XWQCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="374" data-original-height="824" data-original-width="1408">
Short-term visitors
Short-term visitors from China and India have resumed their upwards trend.
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-S7qFu0ddQ2o/XfHkL86i2nI/AAAAAAAAzVs/Cd8rwjftgcwYecBVKAWoeGc8RvnFiPRSwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="356" data-original-height="811" data-original-width="1450"></div>
And, as previously noted here, study is a big drawcard, with a record number of temporary visas on issue for international students. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tQvbHQFrvd8/XfHkMCCN9pI/AAAAAAAAzVw/4gdtFxjyrPgc0tzsu45ayYLUmnpJPj3igCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="366" data-original-height="791" data-original-width="1378">
I've been watching with interest to see whether there's been more action from Hong Kong, but if there is it's not evident in short-term visitor figures. 
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wAXic8jXbrk/XfHlU0qq3yI/AAAAAAAAzWY/do9_wdhBCr0oYKVQ9c0e3cYfJ1ZQqTv-gCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/A4.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="813" data-original-width="1405">
The main beneficiary of the student trend looks likely to be Victoria.
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Not much new here, except confirmation that more student visitors from Asia continue to come in record numbers, and that population growth looks likely to remain at around +1.6 per cent or thereabouts.
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. 
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International student surge ramps up: Pete Wargent

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Sydney’s Macquarie University <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/zero-growth-enrolment-troubles-force-university-to-make-budget-cuts-20191101-p536mc" target="_blank">announced budget cuts</a> in recent days, due to “zero growth” in enrolments next year.
Vice-Chancellor Bruce Dowton reportedly wrote a letter to staff announcing the cuts, which included a hiring freeze. The letter said:
"Enrolment growth domestically and internationally has slowed significantly at a time when our base operating costs continue to rise […] Current projections are that there will be zero growth in load [full-time student numbers] in 2020."
This <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/unis-risk-catastrophic-hit-due-to-reliance-on-china-20190820-p52ivu" target="_blank">comes a few months</a> after a report from the Centre for Independent Studies warned Australia’s universities were in for a “catastrophic” financial hit due to their over-reliance on international students from China.
Macquarie has been hit harder than most other universities, but many universities are finding it more difficult to recruit students than they did a few years ago. New domestic enrolments are in a mild recession. And although international student numbers are still growing, demand from Chinese international students has stabilised.
No increase in school leavers wanting university
In 2018, the number of students starting a bachelor degree <a href="http://highereducationstatistics.education.gov.au/" target="_blank">fell for the first time since 2003</a>. Of Australia’s 37 public universities, 23 took fewer new bachelor-degree students in 2018 than 2017.
Enrolments are expected to be down again in 2019, following a drop <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/undergraduate-applications-offers-and-acceptances-publications" target="_blank">in applications</a>. Commencing domestic postgraduate student numbers peaked several years ago.
In a sector used to growth, a downturn causes problems.
Since a Commonwealth <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/universities-warned-against-regional-cuts-as-turnbull-government-strips-22-billion-from-budget-20171218-h06i24" target="_blank">funding freeze announced in late 2017</a>, universities have not had strong financial incentives to enrol additional students. But this is not the main reason for falling enrolments. The issue is weak demand more than reluctant supply.
Demand for higher education is influenced by the population of potential applicants. Recent school leavers are the biggest bachelor-degree market. The number of year 12 school students fell slightly in 2018, mostly due to a downward trend in babies born 17 years previously.
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Birth and forecast population trends suggest year 12 student numbers will increase by only 1-2% in the next couple of years. So domestic demand for higher education from school leavers should stay close to current levels.
Mature-age students also affect enrolments
To date, <a href="https://andrewnorton.net.au/2019/10/29/has-the-university-funding-freeze-caused-commencing-enrolments-to-fall/" target="_blank">mature-age students are the principal cause</a> of falling commencing bachelor-degree enrolments. But the number of non-year 12 applicants new to higher education is not trending down. For the last few years their applications have fluctuated in a narrow range.
The drop in demand is driven by people who have been to university before. Possibly, <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-wants-to-restore-demand-driven-funding-to-universities-what-does-this-mean-116060" target="_blank">more student places under demand-driven funding</a> triggered a boom in course switching and former students returning, which has now subsided.
Former students are also affecting the domestic postgraduate market. The number of people who already have a degree, which makes them eligible for postgraduate study, <a href="https://andrewnorton.net.au/2019/09/12/migration-has-outpaced-demand-driven-funding-as-a-source-of-additional-graduates/" target="_blank">is at record levels</a>. But domestic postgraduate coursework commencements peaked in 2014 <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://twitter.com/andrewjnorton/status/1188684271843606529/photo/1" target="_blank">and have declined since</a>.
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This is not an isolated trend. All types of structured education for <a href="https://andrewnorton.net.au/2019/10/18/the-changing-nature-of-work-training-further-evidence-and-puzzles/" target="_blank">people already in the workforce are in</a> <a href="https://andrewnorton.net.au/2019/09/26/contrary-to-expectations-reskilling-and-retraining-seem-to-be-in-decline/">decline</a>. It’s likely <a href="https://andrewnorton.net.au/2019/10/15/the-popularity-of-online-self-education/" target="_blank">online self-education is taking market share</a>.
What about international enrolments?
The story is very different in the international-student postgraduate market, which is growing rapidly. In 2018, for the first time ever, more international students <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://twitter.com/andrewjnorton/status/1188676824387051520/photo/1" target="_blank">started a postgraduate than an undergraduate course</a> in Australia.
Despite some soft international markets, the overall trend is up. The <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/International-Student-Data/Pages/InternationalStudentData2019.aspx" target="_blank">most recent data</a>, which take us to August 2019 and cover all levels of higher education, show commencing enrolments are 7% higher than at the same time in the previous year.
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<a href="https://data.gov.au/dataset/ds-dga-324aa4f7-46bb-4d56-bc2d-772333a2317e/details?q=student%20visa" target="_blank">Student visa applications</a>, which go up to September this year, suggest overall demand continues to increase modestly. But we should wait until later in the year before drawing firm conclusions.
A key cause of enrolment increases is India’s rapid rise. Commencing Indian student enrolments have <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/International-Student-Data/Pages/InternationalStudentData2019.aspx" target="_blank">more than doubled since 2016</a>. Although China remains the largest source of international students, new Chinese enrolments have stabilised this year.
International student issues could cause numbers to fall
Given enrolment and visa trends, total international student enrolments will increase in the short term. But there are many concerns about this industry, including <a href="https://andrewnorton.net.au/2019/09/18/how-bad-is-the-international-student-english-language-problem/" target="_blank">English language standards</a>, <a href="https://www-tandfonline-com.ezp.lib.unimelb.edu.au/doi/full/10.1080/03075079.2018.1462788" target="_blank">cheating</a>, <a href="https://issuu.com/nteu/docs/sotus_2017_report_1_overview" target="_blank">soft marking</a>, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/red-flags/11601456" target="_blank">Chinese political interference</a>, university financial <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/auditors-general-warn-again-over-reliance-on-international-students-20190602-p51tnh" target="_blank">over-reliance on international students</a>, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/tackling-the-exploitation-of-international-student-workers-20150818-gj1ge3" target="_blank">labour market exploitation of students</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-temporary-graduate-visa-attracts-international-students-but-many-find-it-hard-to-get-work-in-their-field-123997" target="_blank">poor graduate outcomes</a>.
There are also broader issues of <a href="https://tapri.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Overseas-students-are-driving-NOM-final-18-April-2019.pdf" target="_blank">international students driving up migration numbers</a>, as well as questions of whether we want a large proportion of the population living with <a href="https://www.textpublishing.com.au/books/not-quite-australian" target="_blank">limited political and welfare rights</a>.
<a href="https://www.stawelltimes.com.au/story/5964043/pm-morrison-hits-pause-on-migrant-intake/" target="_blank">Population issues</a> contributed to a <a href="https://campusmorningmail.com.au/news/the-international-education-regional-visa-scheme-is-working" target="_blank">rule change</a> to attract international students away from congested big cities to regional and minor city locations. I expect further regulatory changes and market reactions to international education issues to eventually cause a decline in numbers.
University luck might be about to run out
For universities addicted to international student dollars any enrolment decline is bad news. But universities have a history of luck. As international student numbers dropped a decade ago, domestic enrolments boomed. And as domestic numbers flattened in recent years, the international market took off.
As the domestic demography chart above suggests, there is potential for big increases in Australian undergraduates in the mid-2020s, as the mid-2000s baby boom children reach university age.
There is, however, a major obstacle to that scenario: with the end of demand-driven funding, there will be <a href="https://andrewnorton.net.au/2019/08/27/will-the-number-of-commonwealth-supported-student-places-fall/" target="_blank">no money to pay for those extra students</a>. Federal Education Minister Dan Tehan has <a href="https://ministers.education.gov.au/tehan/afr-higher-education-summit" target="_blank">acknowledged the problem</a> but so far has no solution.
Without one, the future contains major risks. Universities could have falling enrolments for both domestic and international students. This will mean staff cuts and less money for research.
And the people born in the mid-2000s could be part of an unlucky generation in which <a href="https://andrewnorton.net.au/2019/04/29/young-people-were-less-likely-to-enter-higher-education-in-the-years-after-whitlam-than-before-demography-and-deficits-were-against-them/" target="_blank">population growth collides with budget constraint</a>. Their chances of finding a university place will be lower than for people born in earlier decades.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126342/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Andrew Norton, Honorary fellow, University of Melbourne.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/enrolments-flatlining-australian-unis-financial-strife-in-three-charts-126342" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Enrolments flatlining: Australian unis’ financial strife in three charts

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Australia has been ranked as one of the top destinations to study internationally. The <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.topuniversities.com/city-rankings/2019" target="_blank">QS Best Student Cities Ranking</a> released yesterday, which incorporates feedback from more than 87,000 current and prospective international students, ranked Melbourne as the third-best city to study. Sydney came in ninth.
London and Tokyo were number 1 and 2 respectively out of the world’s 120 top student cities. Melbourne and Sydney were joined in the top 50 globally by Brisbane (22), Canberra (23), Adelaide (26, up 15 places from last year) and Perth (41).
These results are rigorous and evidence-based, drawing on a variety of indexes (such as livability and affordability) and the student survey. When it came to the quality of life index (known as desirability), QS director of research Ben Sowter said: "Six of the world’s 30 highest-performing cities for our Desirability indicator are Australian: a record bettered by no other nation."
These results are highly influential and clearly drive education decision-making. We know students wishing to study overseas take serious account of universities that score well on <a href="https://www.internationalstudentsurvey.com/" target="_blank">independent rankings</a>, for instance, and there’s no reason why these should be any different.
So the performance of Melbourne and Sydney on this international platform speaks volumes for the position of the country as a study destination.
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What makes a good student city?
QS uses six metric groups to compile the ratings:
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desirability: will students enjoy a high quality of life here? Do students want to study in this city?
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university rankings: how many top-ranked universities are in the city?
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employer activity: will a chosen city have job opportunities after graduation?
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student mix: what proportion of a city’s population is made up of students? How diverse is that student population?
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affordability: can students afford to study here?
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student voice: what do students studying in this city think of it?
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So, how should we read this?
In assessing quality of life the QS looks to measures such as the Economist Intelligence Unit’s <a href="http://www.eiu.com/Handlers/WhitepaperHandler.ashx?fi=The_Global_Liveability_index_2018.pdf&amp;mode=wp&amp;campaignid=Liveability2018" target="_blank">Global Liveability Index</a> where in 2018 Melbourne, Sydney and Adelaide were in the top ten of the 140 cities surveyed.
Melbourne held the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-most-liveable-city-title-isnt-a-measure-of-the-things-most-of-us-actually-care-about-101525">top spot</a> for seven consecutive years, only this year being edged out by Vienna by 0.7 of a percentage point.
Ben Sowter said: "This year’s edition of the QS Best Student Cities Ranking indicates that one of the primary incentives for any prospective international student to study in Australia is the high quality of life on offer there."
Quality of life includes a range of elements such as recreation facilities, public services and transport, housing and the natural environment. According to <a href="https://mobilityexchange.mercer.com/Insights/quality-of-living-rankings" target="_blank">Mercer’s 2019 Quality of Living City Rankings</a>, Melbourne and Sydney are in the top 20 worldwide.
And then there is safety.
There have been some recent challenges for Australian universities in the area of <a href="https://theconversation.com/recent-campus-attacks-show-universities-need-to-do-more-to-protect-international-students-120082" target="_blank">student safety</a>, including <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7096241/International-students-Australian-university-robbed-bashed-recent-attacks" target="_blank">robberies and attacks</a> on international students at a Melbourne university.
No destination can completely guarantee the personal safety of its residents and visitors. But looking at a <a href="https://www.numbeo.com/crime/rankings.jsp">variety of sources</a> and the <a href="https://thepienews.com/news/students-in-australia-feel-safe-worry-about-work/">comments of students themselves</a>, the evidence suggests Melbourne and Sydney in particular are very safe cities overall, ranking in the top 12 worldwide for <a href="https://dkf1ato8y5dsg.cloudfront.net/uploads/5/82/safe-cities-index-eng-web.pdf" target="_blank">digital, health, infrastructure and personal security</a>.
When it comes to the student mix indicator, the QS ranking puts Melbourne as the world’s best city. This is a measure that includes tolerance and inclusion, reflecting the importance for many international students of choosing a study environment that is likely to be hospitable to their own cultural background, lifestyle and identity.
While there are admittedly periodic reports in the media about <a href="http://www.southasiatimes.com.au/news/?p=1028" target="_blank">racist behaviour</a> in Melbourne, and the government is <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/government-to-consider-ways-to-protect-international-students-on-and-off-campus" target="_blank">well aware of this</a>, Melbourne is widely recognised as culturally diverse, tolerant and welcoming. On these measures we can trust the QS ranking.
Melbourne came third in the student voice, which accounts for the experience and study destination preferences of more than 87,000 students.
Sydney ranked second on student mix and ninth on employer activity, obtaining a job at the end of their studies being a <a href="https://www.internationalstudentsurvey.com/" target="_blank">very important consideration</a> for international students.
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The QS results are in keeping with the high levels of international student satisfaction reported for Australian higher education, especially for <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/research-papers/Documents/ED19-0047%20International%20Student%20Survey%20HIGHER%20EDUCATION%20Infographic_ACC-03.pdf" target="_blank">safety, living, learning and support.</a>
Where we can improve?
The 2019 QS ranking shows Australian universities are at a slight global disadvantage on measures of affordability. This is an observation previously made in The Times Higher Education <a href="https://www.timeshighereducation.com/student/advice/cost-studying-university-australia" target="_blank">World University Rankings</a>.
Australian costs are generally <a href="https://www.slideshare.net/meetuniversity/average-cost-of-studying-abroad-breakdown-country-comparison" target="_blank">comparable</a> to those of the US and the UK, but far higher than Japan, Spain, Germany or Russia, which are all serious competitors in the international student market.
But cost is not the only consideration. A <a href="http://www.cais.ca/uploaded/CAIS_Connect/Boarding_Program/the-value-of-education.pdf" target="_blank">benchmark HSBC report</a> of 4,592 parents in 15 countries around the world said they would consider sending their child abroad for a better university education.
And this is where Australia has a competitive advantage.
We make up for cost when it comes to education quality. The QS results endorse government initiatives such as <a href="https://www.studymelbourne.vic.gov.au/">Study Melbourne</a> and <a href="https://www.study.sydney/">Study Sydney</a> that provide international students with employment assistance, career guidance and day-to-day living support – all of which contribute to a positive international student experience.
While the results are commendable we, shouldn’t be complacent. We know the <a href="https://www.internationalstudentsurvey.com/" target="_blank">biggest concerns</a> for prospective students relate to everyday life rather than their studies.
Issues around the cost of living, finding accommodation and employment, and safety rank among the greatest concerns. In the Australian context dealing with racism needs to be <a href="https://umsu.unimelb.edu.au/stopping-racism-starting-at-melbourne/" target="_blank">urgently addressed</a>.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121238/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Jeff Wilks, Adjunct Professor, Southern Cross University
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/international-students-rank-melbourne-and-sydney-in-worlds-top-cities-but-we-can-make-them-feel-safer-121238" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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International students rank Melbourne and Sydney in world’s top cities – but we can make them feel safer

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The Department of Home Affairs released the latest temporary entrants visa holders which are always worth a squint. 
The number of bridging visas continued its apparently endless increase to record highs, representing the surge in temporary migrants looking to extend their stays on another visa type. 
But the most striking move year-on-year was the +77,000 increase in international student visas to a stock total of 613,000.
Student visas have increased by +48% or +200,000 over the past five years, adding substantially to the capital city populations.
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An interesting sub-plot is the steady but determined increase in the number of students obtaining graduate visas, granting them permission to join the labour force for two to three years (many of these will then surely become permanent residents in due course). 
Over the past year the number of temporary entrant visa holders increased by +92,000 to a record high of 2,322,000.
And over the past five years the increase has been a thumping +430,000 or +23%. 
Australia's estimated resident population has ballooned to 25,386,400.
It's always worth considering that some temporary visa holders might be inclined to depart in the event of severe downturn in economic fortunes.
On the other hand Kiwis may be inclined to remain in situ, depending upon what's playing out across the Tasman, students would presumably keep studying, and a lower Aussie dollar might also boost demand for visitor visas, so it's not quite as clear cut as it first appears.
In the end, there is just a helluva lot of demand for Australia Inc. and over the years this has been consistently reflected in surging visa numbers and massive growth in the estimated resident population. 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. 
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Big surge in student visas: Pete Wargent

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Purpose built student accomodation (PBSA) is being driven by the influx in international students, according to Savills Australia Student Accomodation Q1 2019 Report.
International students increased by 94,630 over the past five years.
There were 10,850 new PBSA beds enter the market in time for the 2019 academic year. Nationally there are now over 87,000 purpose built student accomodation beds.
Savills pipeline predicts there will be around 115,000 beds by 2020. 46% of the future pipeline is through Melbourne. Victoria's <a href="/expert-insights/investing/population-gap-to-narrow-between-nsw-and-victoria">general population is set to close</a> on New South Wales by 2022.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/16/Bed-Supply.jpg" alt="">
By 2022, the full-time international student to all bed ratio is projected to measure 3.75, significantly higher than more mature global markets such as the UK.
Compound annual growth in full time students across Australia’s Greater Capital Cities recorded 4.3% over the past five years, and 4.5% over the 10 year period. 
The growth in full-time students has been driven predominantly in Sydney, Melbourne, Darwin and Canberra.
Click here to enlarge.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/4/16/Student-Growth.jpg" alt="">
Paul Savitz, the director of student accomodation at Savills Australia said the expansion of the student accomodation sector is playing catch-up in order to support demographic changes
Savitz, who wrote the Australian Student Accomodation Q1 Report, added that by the start of the first semester of 2019 there were 87,052 PBSA beds varying by quality, price, location and amenity across the eight capitals.
“Our projections show there could be 114,755 operational beds by the end of 2022, a 32% uplift to today’s number," Savitz said.
"Peak delivery will be 2021 when an estimated 11,800 beds will enter the market, 57% to be completed across the Melbourne market.
Conal Newland, director of student accommodation at Savills Australia, said international student growth has been even stronger, recording a compound annual growth rate of 7.1% since 2012, and 5.7% over 10 years. 
“Between 2012 and 2017, Australia’s full time international student presence grew by 41%.," Newland said.
"With Melbourne and Sydney the premier destination for international students, growth has been significant across these two capital cities recording an annual increase of 8.7% (Melbourne) and 11.3% (Sydney) over the past five years” he said.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

International students continue to flock to Australia: Savills Student Accomodation Q1 2019 Report

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GUEST OBSERVER
In the first seven months of this year, a staggering 685,000 international students came to Australia to study. About half headed to university to study for undergraduate and postgraduate degrees, most often following on from an intensive English-language course. That’s 82,000 more students than the same time last year – a 15% increase. In stock market parlance, that’s a bull market.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) recently calculated the economic impact of this influx of students was A$28bn in 2016-17. This was a A$4.4bn boost on its earlier estimation, thanks to a change in methodology that included interviews with departing students in airport lounges which better captured their spending patterns and visits from family and friends.
Enrolments are concentrated in big cities
Australia should be justifiably proud of the fact it is the third largest destination for international students after the US and Britain. It has by far the largest proportion of overseas students enrolled in its universities – nearly 20%. That’s an average of one in five enrolments.
However, enrolment patterns are not evenly spread. While it’s boom time for the small numbers of public universities and private colleges able to capitalise on the incoming tide of newly middle-class students from China and India, others struggle to keep their heads above water.
Federal government data neatly paints the picture: in 2015, the Ballarat-based Federation University had the highest proportion of international student enrolments, sitting at 42.5%. However, almost all of them study in high-rise glass campuses in the Melbourne CBD. There were another six universities with international enrolments exceeding 25%. All were in inner city Melbourne and Sydney. Only 10% of inbound students go to regional areas, while Sydney and Melbourne between them attract 65% of all international students.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/10/qe1.jpg" alt="">
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Earlier this year, the Committee for Perth published a report bemoaning the fact that Western Australia was failing to capitalise on the boom, and had even witnessed a decline in enrolments over the past 15 years. To compound matters, half of all WA’s international students were enrolled in offshore campuses, particularly those in Malaysia, Dubai and Singapore run by Curtin University.
But why? Surely WA has time zone, cost and lifestyle advantages compared to other states. Reasons for a lack of interest in studying in WA are unclear. Chinese students are particularly disinterested in Perth and surrounds. They may make up one third of all the students heading into Australia for study purposes, but the Chinese account for a relatively low 13.8% of WA’s international student cohort.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/10/qe3.jpg" alt="">
Concentration has real impacts on infrastructure and housing
One concern is that the concentration of international students in inner city Sydney and Melbourne is clogging infrastructure, adding to house and rental prices and causing ghettoisation in some residential areas.
To make matters worse, regional universities keen to get their slice of the action have started establishing high-rise glass tower campuses in the inner cities adding to rising pressures.
A recent report from property analytics company CoreLogic found that 65% of Melbourne CBD residents were not Australian citizens. In Sydney’s Haymarket the percentage was 54%, while in Clayton and Carlton in Melbourne the figure hovered around the 50% mark. A total of 17 other suburbs in Sydney and Melbourne, along with a smattering in Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide and Canberra postcodes, all had transient populations in which non-Australians, namely international students, comprised over 35% of the residents.
The question is why. Accommodation in our inner cities is exceptionally expensive even by world standards, giving unscrupulous landlords license to exploit the unaware.
A 2016 University of Technology Sydney report for the City of Sydney agreed. It also pointed to expensive public transport, the fact jobs are hard to come by (and international students are limited to 20 hours a week) and cultural naivety, which leaves many vulnerable to exploitation. There is little, if any, integration with locals. The report cites alcohol abuse, gambling, sexual and mental health issues, which often go unreported, as barriers for well-being.
On the upside, our inner cities are regarded as safe, despite spates of attacks on international students, such as those in Melbourne in 2008-09 and again in 2016.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86394/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">The challenge now is to ensure the boom in student numbers isn’t undermined by bad experiences and lack of capacity. Marketing and messaging is important for attracting international students to Australia, but we need to encourage them to look beyond the two main cities. The glamour of tourism tends to catch politicians’ attention, but international education is largely left to fend for itself, despite the economic flow on impacts. What is needed is a real, coordinated, practical, focused and strategic oversight of this enormously important sector to ensure its reputation and financial health into the future.
Julie Hare, Honorary Senior Fellow, University of Melbourne.
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-need-to-make-sure-the-international-student-boom-is-sustainable-86394" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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We need to make sure the international student boom is sustainable: Julie Hare

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Australia remains the third most popular country for international students, as the overseas student population continues to increase in both universities and other education sectors, says a recent Savills report.
Australia has a strong reliance on international students from a number of South East Asian countries, it says.
China (28%), India (11%), Republic of Korea (4%), Thailand (4%) and Vietnam (4%) are the top five countries of origin for international students studying in Australia, according to The Australian Student Accommodation Market Report by Savills.
The latest demographic information available indicates that international student growth is stronger as evidenced by enrolments in higher education courses with student visas growing by 11% from 2015 to 2016. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/29/StudentNationalities.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/29/StudentNationalities.png" alt="">
In 2016, the strongest growth in international student numbers in Australia came from Brazil (20%), Malaysia (18%), Nepal (16%), Hong Kong (10%) and Colombia (22%).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/29/StudentNationalities.png">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/29/StudenEnrolments.png" alt="">
According to the report, universities across Australia also continue to be significant participants within the market, with 71,645 beds of Purpose Built Student Accommodation (PBSA) in the eight Australian capital cities. The existing supply in each city is less than 11% of the full-time student population with the exception of Canberra (28%).
Over the first three quarters of 2017, consistent with market activity throughout 2016, the key focus for the major developers in this sector has been the continued acquisition of sites and the construction and delivery of new Purpose Built Student Accommodation (PBSA).
“In Sydney, the University of Sydney, UNSW and Macquarie University are currently active in improving / extending existing residential portfolios,” said Conal Newland, director of Student Accommodation at Savills Australia.
“The University of Melbourne has been active with a number of projects in the last 12 months as have Deakin and Monash Universities. In Brisbane, the University of Queensland and QUT have also considered new projects.”
Newland added that there were only two institutional off-campus transactions in Australia in the first three quarters of 2017, though it was consistent with transaction volumes over the last five years. 
In contrast, the more mature markets in the United States and the UK have been at near record volumes, he said.
Net initial yields in Australia have remained relatively static over the last 12 months, primarily due to the limited number of transactions.
Australia’s student population continues to grow at a steady rate, with total student enrolments increasing by 2.7% from 2014 to 2015, a rise of 36,903 students. 
International student numbers increased by just less than 4.5% in 2015. All of this growth is attributed to full-time international students which increased by almost 5.5%. Part-time international student numbers fell by 0.8% in 2015.
Among the states, New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland showed the greatest number of student enrolments. Victoria achieving the largest increase in enrolment numbers year on year, with an increase of 4.4% compared to 2014. Of all the states, Tasmania saw the largest increase of 9.9% growth in 2015 with multi-state higher education providers increasing by 6.7%.
“The number of international students enrolled in Higher Education courses and utilising study visas in Australia has grown by 10.9% from 2015 to 2016, a marginally higher increase than the year previous” he said.
There were 554,179 international students studying on a student visa in Australia in 2016 which represents an 11.3% increase over 2015 figures (498,155 student visas). The top five nationalities are China, India, Republic of Korea, Thailand and Vietnam. China is the largest international student country of origin which contributed over 27% of the total number of international students in Australia in 2016. The country with the highest percentage of growth is Columbia with growth rate of 22.4% from 2015 to 2016.
Sydney is biggest drawcard for investment into the student accommodation sector. The significant supply and demand imbalance, world class universities and status as a global city are contributing factors, according to the Savills report. The total development pipeline in Sydney has increased from 3,665 beds in 2016 to 5,435 beds in 2017.
In Melbourne, the pipeline for delivery of new student accommodation has increased significantly in the last 12 months. 
Savills 2016 research indicated a total pipeline of 9,651 beds, which has increased to 16,295 beds in 2017. This has been driven by the availability of development sites and the University of Melbourne's 2020 strategy to increase the pipeline of student accommodation bedrooms to 6,000.
After a period of two years when the PBSA development pipeline in Brisbane increased significantly, the activity has slowed in the first three quarters of 2017. There was a minor acceleration towards 30 June 2017, the date that Brisbane City Council’s infrastructure levy reductions ceased, and these projects must commence construction by the end of October 2017 to receive the concession. Analysis indicates that the total combined PBSA pipeline has increased from 8,930 beds in 2016 to 10,682 in 2017.
The development pipeline in Adelaide has grown to 2,159 in 2017 from 1,480 in 2016. In 2018, three projects are programmed for delivery including developments by Blue Sky, Kyren Group and Urbanest. In 2019 a further 380 beds are programmed for delivery.
There has been significant interest in the Perth student accommodation market in the last 12 months. The total development pipeline has increased to 3,621 beds from 2,000 in early 2016. This includes projects being promoted by Stirling Capital and Cedar Pacific. The development pipeline also incorporates the first stage of the Curtin University procurement – a mixed use project incorporating student accommodation.
It is clear when comparing both the existing supply and development pipeline across the major Australian capital cities, with the comparative cities in the UK that in general Australia has a much lower base of supply.
However, according to Rachel Coates, associate director of Student Accommodation at Savills Australia, one critical difference between the Australian and UK market is the propensity of domestic students in the UK to move away from home for university education – and therefore demanding PBSA.
“Australian domestic students are much more likely to live at their parent’s home while studying at university. Cultural drivers and specialisation of course offerings from UK universities has led to much higher rates of students leaving home and travelling to attend university studies,” she said.
It is interesting to note that the record level of UK transactions contributed to global student accommodation investment of over USD $14 billion in 2015. The US market also achieved record levels of USD $5.5 billion for the year and Western Europe USD $2 billion, again a record.
“The US and Western Europe continued to break records in 2016, with the UK having a slower year transaction wise, before being projected to reach close to 2015 levels in 2017. Sales activity in the first quarter of 2017 has been somewhat more subdued with a total of USD $1.95 billion of transactions,” Coates said.
“Analysis of recent transactional activity within the UK demonstrates how the Australian transaction market is still at an early stage, both in terms of the volume of stock that has been traded analysed in terms of the number of beds, and the total value of transactions. There is a substantial amount of trading in the UK forecast for the fourth quarter of 2017, indicating that transaction volumes could total close to £5 billion for the year.”
Coates went on to say that political reform of the Australian Higher Education Sector remains on the agenda, as continued government funding of the Australian university sector seems less likely, and competition between universities is set to increase.
“Savills expect that the provision of high quality purpose built accommodation will become an important consideration for a number of Australian universities. The levels of development activity among universities is already increasing,” she said.
“Sydney will continue to be the most attractive, but the most difficult market to access. Despite a rapid rise in the number of projects over the last 12 months, Melbourne continues to attract a number of new pipeline projects.” 
Debt funding for new development led projects has affected a number of property asset classes through the first three quarters of 2017, including student accommodation. Accessing debt finance for new projects is anticipated to remain challenging.
Record numbers of investors are looking to access the Australian student accommodation market. However, whether development led or investment led, opportunities are at this stage limited.
“Looking to the start of 2018, the delivery of new pipeline accommodation, particularly in Melbourne and Brisbane is going to be closely watched by market participants and observers in terms of the occupancy uptake and stabilisation of new assets, particularly towards the top end of the rental price range. And accessing debt finance for new projects is anticipated to remain challenging.
“Savills anticipate at least one new developer entering the market either late 2017 or early 2018. We also see an opportunity for more competition in the independent third party management of student accommodation” said Newland.
 
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Australia third most popular country for overseas students: Savills 

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English-speaking countries like the UK, US and Australia will take the lion’s share of the international student market but will face increased competition from European institutions, according to recent research from Savills.
The firm's latest <a href="https://pdf.euro.savills.co.uk/global-research/spotlight-world-student-housing-2016-2017.pdf">World Student Housing Spotlight</a> says that as the world's student population becomes increasingly mobile and education becomes globalised, international student populations will continue to rise.
Australia had largest proportion of of international students compared to domestic students within a country, with 26% of all students coming from overseas.
European institutions are actively trying to increase their international appeal, according to Savills. A large part of this appeal has been the increase of courses taught in English. 
English is an important language in the international business space, particularly with prospective employers, therefore tuition in this language has carried significant weight with prospective students.
"Attracting international students is important to a city's local economy as well as the bottom line and diversity of a university," the report said.
"These students often pay higher fees, spend more on both accommodation and living, and bring new insights and cultural perspectives to a country.
"The first case study of the success of this tactic came from the Netherlands, who were one of the earliest European countries to move towards English language tuition at scale."
The Netherlands now boasts the largest numbers of enrolled students on English taught programs (ETPs) making up 7.2% of their total student body, the report said.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/20/March22CommPropChart.png" target="_blank">Click to open chart in new window</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/20/March22CommPropChart.png" alt="">
"In Denmark, while they don't have as large a number of students enrolled in ETPs, the students that are enrolled make up 12.4% of the total student body," the report said.
"Germany, on the other hand, while they have a large number of international students overall, do not have nearly as many of them studying ETPs, and those that do make up just 1% of their total student population.
"With considerably lower living costs than their counterparts in the US, UK and Australia, and many universities appearing in top global rankings, European institutions are a very attractive proposition for international students."
Savills said this rise in the international student market is creating opportunities for housing developers.
"A growing, internationally-mobile student population has fuelled demand for purpose-built student accommodation across the world.
"Investors may do well to watch for countries and cities that benefit from a diverse international demand base, or particular fast-growing outbound markets."
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Australia to face increased competition from Europe for overseas students: Savills

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Australia’s popularity among international students is here to stay, with enrolments in higher education courses with student visas growing by 9 .7 percent from 2014 to 2015, according to the 2016 Australian Student Accommodation Market Report from Savills international.
The undersupply of Purpose Built Student Accommodation (PBSA) in many capital cities, high occupancy levels for stabilised operational properties, robust revenue growth and attractive yield pricing in comparison to the globally established student accommodation markets, all contribute to student accommodation being an attractive investment, says the report.
There are currently 67,695 beds of PBSA in the eight Australian capital cities. All cities have an existing supply of less than 12 percent per full-time student with the exception of Canberra (27.8 percent), but compared to the existing supply and proposed pipeline in several UK cities, all of the Australian cities supply are at low levels.
Melbourne and Brisbane have the largest development pipelines of 9,651 beds (4 percent FT students) and 8,930 beds (6 percent FT students) respectively, but Sydney has a limited pipeline in place over the next four years with a total pipeline of 3,665 beds (2 percent FT students).
Also evident is the extent of pipeline supply across the UK cities, including substantial pipelines in Durham and Liverpool where the existing supply equates to over 40 percent of full-time students.
Savills research indicates that more than $2 billion has been invested into development projects across Australia since the start of 2015. The following chart provides a summary of the existing supply of PBSA and the proposed development pipeline in each of Australia’s capital cities and a selection of UK cities, with the cities sorted by the total provision of accommodation including pipeline.
<a href="/images/2016/06/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-23%20at%201.10.54%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-23%20at%201.10.54%20PM.png" alt="">
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