Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Interest Rates

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Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep interest rates at a record low 2.5% for the 16th consecutive month.
This is the longest time interest rates have remained on hold since 1996 when there was a 19-month period of stability.
The official cash rate has fallen 225 basis points since November 2011, with the RBA cutting interest rates twice in 2013, in May and August.
The steady period of interest rates seems set to continue; CommSec expects interest rates to remain stable until the second half of 2015.
Overall the RBA’s decision has left home loan customers happy. The RateCity database shows that over 1,000 home loans have had rates cut out-of-cycle since July.
But despite record low interest rates helping boost the new home building sector, more needs to be done to ensure demand is met, argues Housing Industry Association’s (HIA) chief economist, Harley Dale.
“Super low interest rates have unleashed substantial pent-up demand for new housing to the benefit of many parts of Australia’s domestic economy beyond residential construction,” said Dale.
“There is a lack of titled residential land, excessive planning delays and restrictions, and a plethora of taxes and charges which combine to make new housing one of the most heavily taxed sectors of the Australian economy.” 
This is a problem which cannot be solved solely through through keeping interest rates low, warns Dale. 
“A lack of policy action... robs the Australian economy of a further burst of growth in new housing supply,” he said.
The RBA will next meet on Tuesday, 2 December 2014. 
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Low interest rates a good start, but not enough to meet new housing demand: HIA

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Today’s Reserve Bank meeting, on Melbourne Cup day, revealed no surprises as the Bank opted to keep rates at a record low 2.5%.
With rates on hold, the question on everyone’s lips now is ‘for how long?’
RP Data’s research director Tim Lawless said that the Reserve Bank is more concerned with the level of investment in housing, rather than the pace of capital gains.
“In fact, the rolling annual change in capital city dwelling values has been moderating since April this year, suggesting that some heat is coming out of the market,” he said.
“Rather than pushing interest rates higher, which would have a detrimental effect on many aspects of the economy, it is looking more likely that APRA and the RBA will aim to cool investor demand by tweaking the risk appetite for bank lending to investors.”
He’s expecting that interest rates will track low until “well into 2015” and that dwelling values will continue to increase.
However, he did not that each city is showing different trends. Notably, Perth and Canberra are “already well through the peak of their cycles,” according to Lawless.
ME Bank's general manager markets John Caelli was also expecting rates to remain on hold.
“With inflation still well behaved and the dollar still higher than the RBA would like, the Bank can afford to wait until there is more clarity on global movements and developments in China,” he said. “The next cash rate change will likely be upwards and occur in the second quarter of 2015.”
LJ Hooker chief executive offer, Grant Herrod, however thought that the stable rates today will cause encouraged sellers to list their properties before the inevitable Christmas slowdown.
“Spring brings with it a seasonal lift in listings, but that lift was a bit delayed this year,” Harrod said.
He said people wanted to buy their new property before listing their old one because of competition.
“The increase in stock levels we’ve seen over the past month combined with the continued historic low cash-rate should motivate those who have been sitting back waiting to take action over the next two to three weeks,” Harrod said.
Finder.com.au’s money expert, Michelle Hutchison, said that borrowers with a variable rate home loan are now celebrating the cash rate pause as they won’t be paying more before Christmas. If a change is made next month, which is unexpected, it won’t filter through until January.
"All 33 experts in Australia’s biggest Reserve Bank Survey by finder.com.au bet the cash rate would hold today, with an average of all forecasts suggesting a rate rise in August 2015,” Hutchison said.
“The odds were stacked against mortgage holders today, with cash rate changes announced on six of the past 10 Melbourne Cup day Reserve Bank meetings.”
She said that interest rates look set to rise “soon” but that fixed home loans at good rates are available.
“For instance, we have seen 58 fixed home loans from six lenders fall in the past month alone, by as much as 0.61%. The average three-year fixed rate – which is the most popular fixed term – has dropped slightly from 5.04% at the start of October to 5.00% now. One-year fixed rates have also fallen from 4.85% to 4.81% in the same period,” she said.
Photo courtesy of Newtown grafitti/<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/" target="_blank">Creative Commons</a>.
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RBA keeps rates on hold, but for how long?

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RBA Governor Glenn Stevens' November statement:
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.5 per cent.
Growth in the global economy is continuing at a moderate pace. China's growth has generally been in line with policymakers' objectives, though weakening property markets there present a challenge in the near term. Commodity prices in historical terms remain high, but some of those important to Australia have declined further in recent months.
Volatility in some financial markets has picked up over the past couple of months. Overall, however, financial conditions remain very accommodative. Long-term interest rates and risk spreads remain very low. Markets still appear to be attaching a low probability to any rise in global interest rates or other adverse event over the period ahead.
In Australia, most data are consistent with moderate growth in the economy. Resources sector investment spending is starting to decline significantly, while some other areas of private demand are seeing expansion, at varying rates. Public spending is scheduled to be subdued. Overall, the Bank still expects growth to be a little below trend for the next several quarters.
Recent data on prices confirmed that inflation is running between 2 and 3 per cent, as expected, and this is likely to continue. Although some forward indicators of employment have been firming this year, the labour market has a degree of spare capacity and it will probably be some time yet before unemployment declines consistently. Hence, growth in wages is expected to remain relatively modest over the period ahead, which should keep inflation consistent with the target even with lower levels of the exchange rate.
Monetary policy remains accommodative. Interest rates are very low and have continued to edge lower over the past year or so as competition to lend has increased. Investors continue to look for higher returns in response to low rates on safe instruments. Credit growth is moderate overall, but with a further pick-up in recent months in lending to investors in housing assets. Dwelling prices have continued to rise.
The exchange rate has traded at lower levels recently, in large part reflecting the strengthening US dollar. But the Australian dollar remains above most estimates of its fundamental value, particularly given the further declines in key commodity prices in recent months. It is offering less assistance than would normally be expected in achieving balanced growth in the economy.
Looking ahead, continued accommodative monetary policy should provide support to demand and help growth to strengthen over time. Inflation is expected to be consistent with the 2–3 per cent target over the next two years.
In the Board's judgement, monetary policy is appropriately configured to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target. On present indications, the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates.
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Dwelling prices continue to climb: Governor Glenn Stevens' November statement

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Paul Bloxham, the chief economist, Australia and New Zealand at the HSBC Bank Australia Limited, sees three key issues for the RBA.
<ul>
<li>Low rates are supporting a house price and construction boom, but could also risk inflating a housing bubble</li>
<li>The prudential regulator has already been working to tighten lending standards and the RBA has been ‘jawboning’ to temper conditions in the housing market</li>
<li>Tighter lending standards or so-called ‘macro-prudential’ tools could see the RBA willing to leave rates low for longer</li>
</ul>
Bloxham argues that after a long period in which Australia was building mines and too few houses, there was now a strong pipeline of housing construction. But he suggests these forces are "slowly" permeating the rest of the economy, with broader business conditions lifting modestly.
"Overall demand has been sufficient to keep inflation at around its target (the CPI print showed underlying inflation at 2.6% year on year in Q3) and to see the unemployment rate showing signs of stabilising.
"As yet, though, demand has not been strong enough to lift inflation or to drive the unemployment rate lower, which would be needed to see the RBA start to lift rates back towards neutral.
"But low interest rates also carry some costs.
"The longer interest rates stay at very low levels, the greater the chance that some asset prices could become misaligned with fundamentals.
"This is clearest in the housing market.
"Although national housing price growth of 10% a year should not be unexpected for now, persistent double-digit growth would be a worry and 15% annual price growth in Sydney is already concerning."
<img src="/images/2014/11/04/rba-nov-4-one.jpg" alt="">
Source: HSBC Global Research
He says the so-called ‘macro-prudential’ tools, to try to further manage the housing boom, would be incremental, rather than revolutionary, and more akin to adjustments to current prudential tools than a ‘macro-prudential’ overhaul. 
Trends in the Sydney property market were particularly concerning, according to Bloxham noting housing prices continuing to rise at around 15% over the past year.
"A key part of the concern is that the pick-up in housing prices is being increasingly driven by investors.
"Investors account for an increasing share of housing loan approvals and are particularly prominent in the Sydney market, where the investor share of loans is at a new record high of 44%.
"Although the RBA does not seem concerned about the riskiness of investor borrowing per se, they are concerned that the rise in investor interest is a signal that a speculative element has started to drive the housing market.
"The RBA still sees the risks to financial stability from current trends as low, given that investors tend to be higher-income households with larger mortgage deposits.
"But increased investor involvement could lead to a larger rise in housing prices, which could see a bigger fall some time down the track, exacerbating the economic cycle."
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Sydney property investors the key to the three big issues for the RBA: Paul Bloxham

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While the majority of experts predict the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will begin to raise interest rates from next year, the senior economist for Domain Group's Australian Property Monitors, Andrew Wilson, is expecting one more cut.
Every expert in the latest Reserve Bank Survey from Finder, including Wilson, predicted rates to remain on hold today. Of these experts, <a href="/expert-insights/finance/rates-tipped-to-start-rising-in-2015-but-how-long-will-the-cycle-continue">91% expected rates to start rising in 2015</a>, with two expecting hikes from 2016.
Wilson, however, predicts the next cash rate movement to be down, cutting the current 2.5% to a new record low.
He further expects the peak of the next rate cycle to be 3.5% during 2018, with rates to start falling again from 2019.
“Mixed signals remain although bias now turning to the downside,” Wilson explained.
He said that the Reserve Bank is waiting for the general economic climate to crystalise.
With house prices now falling, inflation low, unemployment, a high dollar, a weaker share market and rising concerns over the global economic outlook, Wilson's believes this may push the RBA to make one more cut.
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Domain Group's Andrew Wilson predicts RBA will cut rates further

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All 33 experts and economists in Finder's Reserve Bank Survery have tipped the Reserve Bank to keep rates at a record low of 2.5% tomorrow.
However, a lacklustre economy, high unemployment, the Australian dollar, global uncertainty in the Middle East and Europe, house price pressure and inflation on target, makes it likely that rate hikes will begin in 2015.
Melbourne Cup day has traditionally been a day of cash rate movements – with nine changes on this day in the past 20 years.
Of those surveyed by Finder, 91% are expecting rises in 2015. Two expect rises in 2016.
The general expectation is for rates increases to start increasing in August 2015 before coming to an easing cycle two to three years later.
Finder’s money expert Michelle Hutchison said that rate rises won’t last for long when they do occur.
"Our economy is under pressure to perform better, and all 33 experts in the Finder Reserve Bank Survey believe that the cash rate won’t rise for very long before it will start to fall again,” she said.
“The survey found that the cash rate is likely to peak at 4% in 2017 according to the average forecast.”
However, expectations about when the next interest rate cycle will peak varied significantly– certainly a tough ask this early on.
The majority, 60%, expected the next peak to be in 2017, while a further 27% expected 2016 would mark the peak. A further 13% tipped the top of the next rate cycle to be in 2018.
“One expert – David de Ferranti, Market Analyst at Forex Capital Markets – is forecasting the highest peak, with the cash rate to hit 5.5%. One in three (33%) are expecting the cash rate to hit 4.5% to 5%, a further one in three (33%) expect the peak to hit 4% to 4.25% while the remaining 30% are expecting a peak of between 2.75% and 3.75%,” she said.
“It’s also clear that most experts believe the cash rate won’t hit the high levels we’ve seen in the past. And regardless of when the peak will be reached, it’s likely to start falling soon after.”
Almost 50% of the respondents suggested rate drops in 2018.
“This is great news for borrowers or those planning to enter the property market this mortgage season, as they can prepare for around two years of rising interest rates before they will likely come down again,” she said.
"Borrowers need a buffer of at least $300 per month for an average $300,000 loan if the cash rate hits 4%.”
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Rates tipped to start rising in 2015, but how long will the cycle continue?

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Flemington isn't the only location with a important meet scheduled for Tuesday 4 November; The Reserve Bank Board will also assemble to discuss any potential movements in the official cash rate.
While November has been a remarkably popular month for the bank to move rates, Westpac's Bill Evans says there is no chance of a November move.
Westpac expect the statement to repeat key phrases: “the exchange rate... remains high by historical standards”; and “the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates”.
Evans recalls that in the first six years of RBA Governor Glenn Stevens’ tenure (2006-2011), November proved to be a month of moving interest rates. In 2012 the Bank was certainly ‘in play’ with moves occurring in both October and December while, arguably, the Bank was also ‘in play’ in November last year.
On recent house price inflation, Evans suggests the recent slowing from its late-2013 pace might be easing the bank's concerns around the property market. 
"There is still likely to be some RBA/APRA package of initiatives announced before year’s end but, given the authorities do not appear to be inclined towards ‘heavy handed’ actions and the flexibility of Australia’s financial system, particularly around an active non-bank sector, it seems unlikely that these moves will have a marked effect on the availability of credit overall," he advised.
Westpac is expecting 50 basic points of hikes in the latter half of 2015 and a further 100 basic points in 2016.
"Back in March we were quite out of step with the economics community. 
"We did not expect the RBA to begin hiking until August 2015, whereas 60% of forecasters expected rate hikes by the March quarter and 15% expected rate cuts. 
"All those rate hawks have been forced to revise their views. 
"The latest survey indicates that 85% of economics forecasters are still predicting higher rates by end 2015 (with 50% expecting hikes to begin in the June quarter – but expect that proportion to dwindle by year’s end). Only 15% (four forecasters) are pushing the market’s line. 
"Unusually we find ourselves buried in the economists’ consensus."
Bill Evans, the chief economist also delved into The Melbourne Cup.
"Some will be aware that we have picked the winner of the Melbourne Cup in two of the last three years," he said.
"This year we are reasonably confident that we can find yet another winner in Admire Rakti.
"This Japanese horse ran by far the best trial for the race with its storming win in the most reliable lead up race for the Cup – the Caulfield Cup.
"Arguably, Japan produces the best stayers in the world – even ahead of their Irish counterparts.
"Who can forget the last time Japanese horses ran in the Cup?
"That was in 2006 when the Japanese horse Delta Blues beat his Japanese compatriot Pop Rock by the narrowest margin (just half a head) with a massive four and a half lengths to the next horse.
"However, Admire Rakti has other history going against him. He is likely to be around 5:1 odds on the day. That will make him favourite.
"No favourite has won the race since Makybe Diva in 2005 and no horse has won the Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup double since Ethereal in 2001.
"He will also have to carry 58.5 kilos (top weight) – average weight of the winner in the last decade has been 54 kilos. No horse has won with such a weight since the 1970s.
"There are also unofficial reports that the horse is not considered to be in the top 20 horses in Japan.
"Other contenders are: Protectionist (the German champion) and Lucia Valentina (beaten favourite behind Admire Rakti in the Caulfield Cup).
"The English ‘raiders’ headed by Red Cadeaux look to be an ordinary lot this year.
"In fact the clear danger from my perspective is Fawkner, surprisingly an Australian horse, who ran a mighty 2nd in our other key lead up race – the W S Cox Plate (Fiorente, last year’s winner ran third last year).
"As always, the usual disclaimers apply – “this does not constitute investment advice ... etc etc” (see pages 12-13 for more).
"But good luck and at least be consoled by the fact that your study will not be disturbed by any surprises out of the Reserve Bank which announces its decision 30 minutes before the big event!"
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Admire Rakti or Fawkner, but no RBA Cup Day movement: Westpac's Bill Evans

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The Real Estate Institute of New South Wales has called on the Reserve Bank of Australia to avoid restricting the property market by pushing up interest rates and expressed their disappointment at RBA governor Glenn Stevens’ property warnings.
REINSW president Malcolm Gunning said that six months ago Stevens was encouraging investment in real estate.
“Now that the public is buying properties with confidence the RBA has changed its mind and is being critical, giving warnings about investing in an over inflated market,” Gunning said.
“We are very disappointed that RBA Governor Glenn Stevens is trying to restrict investment in property by sending out warnings about buying property.”
He said that they are not only disappointed that the RBA is providing this advice, but also that they have “singled out” property.
“The fact is that investors are more confident about putting their money in Australian property compared to the uncertainty of the share market and the underlying mistrust of this sector following on from the GFC,” he said.
Gunning said that they admit that low LVRs of 95% are dangerous, but notes that the practice should be curbed by asking banks to be more responsible with their lending, rather than turning to interest rates to restrict the market.
“Using a broad tool such as interest rates to affect one sector of the market is unjust on all areas of the market and is inappropriate,” he said, noting they’ve regularly been used as a quick fix.
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REINSW admits 95% LVRs are dangerous, but warns off inappropriate RBA rate hikes

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Glenn Stevens' statement on interest rates was bland but holds important reminders for property investors.
It's probably a sign of how stable our economy is that we wait for the slightest change in wording when the Reserve Bank (RBA) decides on the cash rate.
Last Tuesday the RBA board met and decided to keep the official interest rate at 2.5% – not only a historically low rate compared with the 5.2% average since 1990, but also a rate that's been kept the same since August 2013.
But it was the way RBA governor Glenn Stevens expressed himself on property prices and the Australian dollar that is worth looking at during the remainder of the year and into 2015.
For more than a month we've heard strong commentary from economists about unhealthy price inflation in the property market, driven by low interest rates. Some of that comment has predicted an end to negative gearing. I haven't joined this discussion because lenders' figures don't suggest a problem in the property market, and the Bureau of Statistics' House Price Index series shows we are just slightly above the index average since 2002.
However, the RBA governor in his statement did mention investment property: "Credit growth is moderate overall, but with a further pick-up in recent months in lending to investors in housing assets."
I think Stevens was right to address the property market with a bland statement like this. If nothing else, it's a reminder to property investors that they must do their homework and invest wisely regardless of what official interest rates are doing.
With an investment property, you are interested in a good location and access to infrastructure such as schools, shops, railway stations and playing parks. And you are also interested in average rentals and some historical data on rental yields.
But the first step in a good investment is buying well. This means not just paying a good price for the year, but a good price for the 10 to 20 years you want to generate income from this property. If you pay too much you'll lose on capital appreciation and it will take longer to generate clear funds from the rent.
It's one thing to get carried away at an auction and pay too much for the house you love, but an investment property is a business that must earn income and capital growth for many years.
So keep a cool head.
The other element mentioned by the RBA – that they expect the Aussie dollar to fall further against the US – is something that might give a boost to our economy. When our dollar was at parity with the US, Aussie exports were expensive and local manufacturers found it hard to compete in foreign markets.
Now that our dollar is at 85 US cents – and expected to fall further – our non-mining economy has a chance to pick up, expand operations and create jobs.
So don't be alarmed at the lack of big headlines from the Reserve Bank this month. A steady economy is a great thing when you consider the alternative.
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Do your homework, whatever the interest rate

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I've always liked the saying "can't see the forest for the trees".
It appropriately sums up so much of the distorted self-indoctrinated bias of opinion pertaining to real estate in Australia.
The debate has never been so fierce – especially when it comes to the definition of that 'bubble'. I am of the firm belief that it is those who are actual historians of the Australian property markets who are the ones with the greatest ability to call the exact path and outcomes.
If you want to end the 'bubble' debate simply ask the question: "So when do you see this bubble bursting?"
It's always the fastest way to draw the debate to a fast halt. History has shown when you closely analyse the property market machinations through the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) – Cash Rate Target interest rate changes only then can we see the significant market changes.
That being when the RBA increases the cash rate twice (not once) we are starting to see a new course being charted. Then it takes another two to four years for the affects to be seen given that is when households start to come out of their fixed mortgage periods into the higher mortgage agreements.
Given we are the best part of at least 12 months away from the first cash rate increase – which should send the alarm bells ringing – then depending on the next increase we won't start seeing any noticeable market price corrections until 2016 to 2019.
We also need to bear in mind that when the cash rate increases so does the exchange rate as that goes up in unison, which is the last thing the RBA wants to see given it's presently trying to get the exchange rate down.
We should consider that the RBA is well down the track to introducing its new macroprudential tools as well as waiting to receive (then implement) the findings from the Murray Financial System Inquiry.
No doubt the RBA would be very much looking forward to tinkering the markets with these tools so that (for the very first time) other than increasing the cash rate  it may just be able to manipulate the markets in a way never seen before. For the first time ever (as many would not be aware) we are witnessing history with these new real estate market initiatives.
Again, history will show whether or not they were effective. However, it will be fascinating to watch the outcomes.
So back to those fools on the hill who following this week's RBA decision to leave the cash rate on hold at 2.50% – they even managed to get that wrong. No it was not a record (as some declared). Even though 14 straight months is getting up there, the actual record is 17, not 16 as some would believe. Furthermore, you can only apply consecutive meetings as the RBA doesn't meet in January.
Having said that, when you go back through the history of the cash rate movements at the RBA we start to see fascinating stories evolve.
I have conducted my research on instances where the cash rate remained on hold for 10 or more consecutive meetings:
The first period of RBA cash rate holds started on 30 July 1993 when the cash rate was moved from 5.25% to 4.75%, where it remained until 27 July 1994 – in total 12 holds. Then on 17 August it was bumped up 1.25% to 5.50%.
The next run of holds, which is the equal record 17 holds, happened on 14 December 1994 when the cash rate increased from 6.50% to 7.50%, where it remained until 3 July 1996.
Then it fell to 7.00%. So we are seeing long holds followed by increases and decreases.
On 30 July 1997 we saw another 16 consecutive holds at 5.00%, to then see it drop to 4.75%.
On 5 June 2002 we saw 16 holds at 4.75%, to then see it increased to 5.25% in November 2003.
On 4 February 2004 we saw thirteen holds at 5.25%. When the cash rate was increased to 5.50% in March 2005, that was followed by another twelve holds that was followed by an increase to 5.75%.
Then on 8 December 2011 we had another ten holds at 4.75%, then saw the rate dropped to 4.25%.
We are now in the current hold pattern after fourteen meetings, so based on history it's anyone's guess what or when the next movement might be. I predict the current rate will be set for the longest period in RBA history as it will go well into the twenty something meetings.
So when you see the arguments mounting that many commentators were disappointed that the RBA hardly mentioned that ''bubble" following this week's decision – history clearly shows that the board members may not be that concerned about that "bubble".
Maybe they are more concerned as to why investors have steered clear of the stock market which, by the way, had a few massive corrections this week – although, wait a minute, nothing much was written about that either.
It all depends on what you are looking at – the forest or the trees?
As to be expected stock levels increased significantly this week – so now we finally get to see firsthand just how strong the markets really are.
Watching these numbers will be telling over the period leading up to Christmas, although I don't believe we will see anything that even resembles that imaginary 'bubble'. Time will tell!
 
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