Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Interest Rates

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) announcement to hold the cash rate for April at 2.25 percentage points could ease the increase in house and unit values over the next month. A market slowdown would allow greater purchasing power for first time home buyers in unaffordable housing markets.
The number of first time homebuyers taking out home loans has declined as a result of the recent housing boom, which saw more investors enter the market. This is supported by ABS data, which shows that home loans taken out by first time homebuyers have steadily decreased from 18.8% in 2012 to 14.9% in 2015.
Furthermore, according to ABS data, the size of the average home loan increased 1.07% between December 2014 and January 2015, to $346,600.
The decision to hold rates is partly attributable to Australia’s two-tiered housing market. According to <a href="https://Onthehouse.com.au" target="_blank">Onthehouse.com.au</a> data, at February 2015, Sydney experienced quarterly growth of 3.55% for houses, and 2.83% in units. These are down from the January quarter of 4.10% for houses and 3.04% in units, although they still reflect strong investor demand.
Despite Sydney’s strong performance, other markets, including Melbourne and Brisbane, saw contraction in property values at the end of the February quarter.
On the supply side of the housing market, February housing approvals were almost at a five-year high. In NSW, approvals for February 2014 totalled 4,692 dwellings, approximately 2,600 of which were units. Dwelling commencements in NSW, as last recorded in September 2014, were at a high of 14,063, which is a 43% increase in commencements from the previous quarter, and is 49% higher than the five-year average of commencements.
Dwelling commencements also increased in QLD and VIC, but at a lower rate. Nationwide, commencements hit a record high of 54,436, despite migration currently sitting below the five-year average. A further cut in the cash rate could have seen funds misallocated in a market where migrant and first homebuyer demand is in decline.
Overall, despite the benefits to first time homebuyers, the rate hold decision does come within a tricky economic climate for the RBA, where economic indicators have remained virtually unchanged for the previous period.
Some notable indicators include:
<ul>
<li>The unemployment rate decreased from 6.4% in January to 6.3% in February. However, this was coupled with a decrease in the participation rate from 64.7% to 64.6%, suggesting that the unemployment rate fell as people came out of the labour force, rather than finding work.</li>
<li>Annual wage price growth was at a five year low in the quarter ending December 2014, at just 2.5%. The December quarter also saw low inflation, which was last recorded at 1.7%.</li>
<li>Iron ore is currently at a 10 year low, at $US46.7 a tonne. Iron ore is expected to fall further as competitors amplify supply to win greater market share.</li>
<li>Oil prices seem to be stabilising following a significant decline since July 2014. Oil rose marginally in the latest trading session to $US53 per barrel. While the price is stabilising at approximately half the five-year average, Australians may no longer enjoy further discounts in the oil price. </li>
</ul>
Though the above factors call for a further cut in the cash rate, the hold is more about timing than tightening monetary policy. This month will reveal new quarterly inflation figures and employment data, which would allow more insight into the impact of February rate cuts. 
Eliza Owen is a market analyst at <a href="https://Onthehouse.com.au" target="_blank">Onthehouse.com.au</a>.
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po-LsXgBTHBmX

The RBA April rate hold will benefit first time home buyers: Eliza Owen

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The Reserve Bank of Australia has held the official cash rate at 2.25% for April.
The decision comes after the Reserve Bank dropped the interest rate in February from 2.50% to 2.25%.
The <a href="/expert-insights/finance/most-experts-expect-reserve-bank-will-hold-rates-for-april-finder">majority of experts surveyed</a> by comparison website Finder, including NAB's Alan Oster, anticipated that the Reserve Bank would announce that rates would not change this month.
CoreLogic RP Data's head of research Tim Lawless says a potential rate cut later in the year is likely to see home values continue to rise.
"The Reserve Bank has previously stated that they will be looking towards the regulatory framework to minimise risk in the housing market and it is clear that APRA are vigilant for any deterioration in lending standards across Australia's lenders," says Lawless.
"The buoyant housing market conditions should continue to support growth in housing construction which in turn provides a strong multiplier effect on the Australian economy, with increased housing activity flowing through more spending on items such as building materials, appliances, home furnishings and white goods. 
"More importantly, with population growth slowing and construction increasing the disconnect between housing demand and housing supply is also reducing which may also alleviate some of the increases in home values."
Michelle Hutchison, of comparison website Finder, notes the benefit of the Reserve Bank's decision to first home buyers.
"Today's decision by the Reserve Bank to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.25% is great news for first home buyers, as lower rates have led to higher consumer confidence and increasing property prices," says Hutchison.
"The past year saw the median property price increase by 7.4 percent to $559,000 (CoreLogic RP Data). If first home buyers have to borrow over $38,000 more for an average property – from $520,484 to $559,000 – the higher property price would outweigh the last rate cut."
"In fact, even if there was another cash rate cut, it won't outweigh the extra cost in monthly repayments if you paid $38,000 more for a property," she explains.
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jrichardson-uRX5hFdKfN

Reserve Bank keeps cash rate at 2.25% for April

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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.25%.
Moderate growth in the global economy is expected in 2015, with the US economy continuing to strengthen, even as China's growth slows a little from last year's outcome.
Commodity prices have declined over the past year, in some cases sharply. The price of oil in particular is much lower than it was a year ago. These trends appear to reflect a combination of lower growth in demand and, more importantly, significant increases in supply. The much lower levels of energy prices will act to strengthen global output and temporarily to lower CPI inflation rates. Prices for key Australian exports have also been falling and therefore Australia's terms of trade are continuing to decline.
Financial conditions are very accommodative globally, with long-term borrowing rates for several major sovereigns at all-time lows. Financing costs for creditworthy borrowers remain remarkably low.
In Australia the available information suggests that growth is continuing at a below-trend pace, with overall domestic demand growth quite weak as business capital expenditure falls. As a result, the unemployment rate has gradually moved higher over the past year. The economy is likely to be operating with a degree of spare capacity for some time yet. With growth in labour costs subdued, it appears likely that inflation will remain consistent with the target over the next one to two years, even with a lower exchange rate.
Credit is recording moderate growth overall. Growth in lending to investors in housing assets is stronger than to owner-occupiers, though neither appears to be picking up further at present. Lending to businesses, on the other hand, has been strengthening recently. Dwelling prices continue to rise strongly in Sydney, though trends have been more varied in a number of other cities. The Bank is working with other regulators to assess and contain risks that may arise from the housing market. In other asset markets, prices for equities and commercial property have risen, in part as a result of declining long-term interest rates.
The Australian dollar has declined noticeably against a rising US dollar over the past year, though less so against a basket of currencies. Further depreciation seems likely, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices. A lower exchange rate is likely to be needed to achieve balanced growth in the economy.
At today's meeting the Board judged that it was appropriate to hold interest rates steady for the time being. Further easing of policy may be appropriate over the period ahead, in order to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation consistent with the target. The Board will continue to assess the case for such action at forthcoming meetings.
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Prices varied, though Sydney strong says RBA Governor Glenn Stevens' April statement

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The majority of respondents in Finder's monthly rate prediction survey expect that the Reserve Bank will not change the official cash rate this month.
The cash rate currently sits at 2.25% after a 25 basis point cut in February.
Of the 42 experts surveyed by the mortgage comparison website, just 10 believe that the Reserve Bank will cut the cash rate today. Those predicting a cut include Bill Evans of Westpac and ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan, who said: "The Reserve Bank has signalled they're likely to ease policy further. We still haven't seen any evidence of a sustained pick-up in non-mining business investment and the Australian dollar has been a bit high in previous weeks."
ANZ expects the official cash rate to drop to 2.0%. In today's Morning Focus release, however, the bank's researchers did note that the Reserve Bank's decision "looks to be a close one", observing the results of a recent Bloomberg survey, where 13 of 30 economists predicted a rate cut.
"With iron ore prices continuing to fall and the non-mining economic recovery continuing to disappoint, the decision seems at face-value to be simple one. However, the booming Sydney housing market has policymakers nervous and there is concern that a rate cut won't spur activity as much as is needed at this late stage in the easing cycle," reads ANZ's note.
However, Commonwealth Bank's Michael Blyth and NAB's Alan Oster believe that rates will remain unchanged today.
Most of the survey respondents predict the Reserve Bank will drop the cash rate by June.
Scott Haslem of USB said: "While you couldn't rule out an April cut, we believe the Reserve Bank will wait to see late-April's Q1 Consumer Price Index print, which should be low enough for them."
 
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Most experts expect Reserve Bank will hold rates for April: Finder

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The Australian Financial Review columnist Chris Joye has suggested "the Reserve Bank of Australia's governor Glenn Stevens is trying to unravel a <a href="https://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/239059/Gordian-knot" target="_blank">Gordian knot</a> created by his institution's inconsistencies".
"The RBA is blowing the mother of all housing bubbles to deflate an overvalued exchange rate," Joye wrote today.
He said "it is replacing one asset pricing conundrum with another, arguably more dangerous, one" with "unprecedented monetary policy settings in the form of the cheapest borrowing rates in history to put downward pressure on the Aussie dollar".
Joye suggests "when the RBA cut rates in February it judged the local housing market was cooling".
"Much like it thought rate cuts in 2013 would not fuel an unsustainable housing boom that would force regulators to introduce macro-prudential rules to slow credit growth running at three times the rate of incomes," Joye wrote.
"On all these counts the RBA's forecasts have proven badly wrong.
"It has probably been blindsided by housing dynamics over the last couple of years because it has never confronted these conditions before.
"Back in 1991 the value of housing debt divided by disposable household incomes was just 35%.
"Today it is over 140% - beyond any previous peak.
"And climbing every day."
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

"RBA is blowing the mother of all housing bubbles": Chris Joye

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A CLSA analyst says interest rates in Australia will be less than 1% within two years and could even go to zero.
Christopher Wood, the managing director and chief strategist of the Asian-based equity broking and investment firm, made the forecast in an interview with The Australian Financial Review.
"I think less than 1% within the next two years. They are going to end up a lot lower than people still imagine," said Wood.
The AFR notes the most recent Bloomberg survey of economists indicates an average interest rate forecast of 2% for the end of the year and the first quarter of 2016.
Wood told investors to sell US mortgage securities before the subprime disaster.
"It's not whether interest rates go up, it's whether Australian interest rates go to zero," Wood said.
"When I was in Australia 15 months ago everyone thought that interest rates had bottomed and were going up. But now there is greater awareness among fund managers that it is going to stay lower for longer."
Wood said the drop in gross domestic product means the Reserve Bank of Australia needs to keep cutting interest rates, but it is caught in a difficult position.
"The issue from Australia's central bank standpoint is that it doesn't want to cut interest rates because of the housing market which, from a value point of view, is overextended," he said.
"You do have asset price rises driven by Chinese buying. But the bank is under pressure to cut rates, so I think it will have to come down to macroprudential controls and they are very political."
Wood is in Australia to meet with major fund manager clients. 
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Interest rates to zero forecast for Australia: CLSA's Christopher Wood

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RBA board members have warned that risks had been beginning to build in commercial property markets, including developers of residential as well as non-residential property. 
Prices in several market segments had been rising, even as vacancy rates remained high and leasing conditions weakened.
It was a second warning coming a year after it warned of office market oversupply risks.
 
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RBA again sees emerging commercial property market risks

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
Consumer confidence: The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose by 0.5% in the week to March 15 to a reading of 110.8, mildly below the average level since 2014 of 111.4.
Reserve Bank Board minutes: Members considered cutting rates again at the March meeting but held off due to a range of uncertainties, including doubts on how borrowers and consumers would respond.
The consumer confidence figures have implications for retailers, and other consumer-focussed businesses. The Reserve Bank Board minutes provide insight into central bank thinking on interest rates.
What does it all mean?
The Reserve Bank is peering through the fog, trying to work out where to go from here. And aware that there are immense uncertainties in the current environment and that is no rush to cut rates again, Board members elected to sit quietly at the March rate setting meeting. Simply, Board members are hoping the fog will lift in the period ahead so they know which way to proceed from here.
One salient point from the latest Board minutes is that members are uncertain about the reactions of Aussie consumers and businesses in the current low rate environment. In other words, will rate cuts have a positive effect in boosting spending and investment or will people become worried that interest rates are too low. It is certainly clear so far that the February rate cut hasn’t led to a sustained lift in confidence levels.
Consumers clearly remain nonplussed. The job market improved in the latest month but the Aussie dollar remains soft and petrol prices are well above the lows reached in January. In addition there was no improvement in
Federal politics – politicians still can’t seem to come to agreement on the Budget initiatives being held up in the Senate.
There were no changes of note in the five components of the consumer confidence index.
The disappointment for the Reserve Bank is that the February rate cut has come and gone and consumer sentiment is weaker, not stronger. The Reserve Bank will continue to think long and hard about the benefits of continuing to cut interest rates with no real expectation that it will kick start growth.
What do the figures show?
Consumer sentiment:
The ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose by 0.5% from six-month lows in the week to March 8 to 110.8, mildly below the average since 2014 of 111.4.
Three of the five components of the index rose in the latest week:
<ul>
<li>The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was up from +4 to +6;</li>
<li>The estimate of family finances over the next year was up from +22 to +25;</li>
<li>Economic conditions over the next 12 months was down from -7 to -8;</li>
<li>Economic conditions over the next 5 years was up from 0 to +1;</li>
<li>The measure on whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was down from +32 to +30.</li>
</ul>
Reserve Bank Board minutes:
Minutes of the Reserve Bank Board meeting held on 3 March <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2015/2015-03-03" target="_blank">can be found her</a>e.
The key quotes from the Board minutes:
“Members noted that the current setting of monetary policy had been accommodative for some time and that the recent reduction in the cash rate would provide some further support to the economy. They also acknowledged that a lower exchange rate would help achieve balanced growth in the economy. Nonetheless, on the basis of the current forecasts for growth and inflation, members were of the view that a case to ease monetary policy further might emerge.”
“In considering whether or not to reduce the cash rate further at this meeting, members saw benefit in allowing some time for the structure of interest rates and the economy to adjust to the earlier change. They also saw advantages in receiving more data to indicate whether or not the economy was on the previously forecast path. Further, they noted the greater degree of uncertainty about the behaviour of borrowers and savers in a world of very low interest rates. Taking account of all these factors, members judged it appropriate to hold the cash rate steady for the time being, while recognising that further easing over the period ahead may be appropriate to foster sustainable growth in demand while maintaining inflation consistent with the target.”
“While credit had continued to grow a little faster than incomes, household leverage had not increased significantly and the Bank would continue to work with other regulators to assess and contain risks that might arise from the housing market.”
What is the importance of the economic data?
The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
The Reserve Bank releases minutes of its monthly Board meeting a fortnight after the event. The minutes give a guide to Reserve Bank thinking on interest rate settings.
Each Reserve Bank Board meeting in the next couple of months is a “live” meeting – that is, the Board could decide to cut rates. It is now all about strategy. And that strategy hasn’t been adequately shared with financial markets. Perhaps the Reserve Bank Governor will provide further insights into his thinking in a speech to be delivered on Friday.
Interestingly, the Reserve Bank Board still believes there are potential benefits to be reaped from a rate cut – it depends whether interest rate savings are spent or saved.
 “They noted that the interest payments made by borrowers are significantly larger than the income received by holders of interest-bearing assets and, as a result, the very low level of interest rates was acting, other things equal, to support aggregate disposable income available for consumption. Members noted that the net effect on consumption through this transmission channel was a function of a number of factors, including the distribution of loans and interest-bearing assets across households and the extent to which the consumption behaviour of different households responds to low interest rates.”
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
Each Reserve Bank Board meeting in the next couple of months is a “live” meeting – that is, the Board could decide to cut rates. It is now all about strategy. And that strategy hasn’t been adequately shared with financial markets. Perhaps the Reserve Bank Governor will provide further insights into his thinking in a speech to be delivered on Friday.
Interestingly, the Reserve Bank Board still believes there are potential benefits to be reaped from a rate cut – it depends whether interest rate savings are spent or saved. 
“They noted that the interest payments made by borrowers are significantly larger than the income received by holders of interest-bearing assets and, as a result, the very low level of interest rates was acting, other things equal, to support aggregate disposable income available for consumption. Members noted that the net effect on consumption through this transmission channel was a function of a number of factors, including the distribution of loans and interest-bearing assets across households and the extent to which the consumption behaviour of different households responds to low interest rates.”
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>. 
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RBA still believes  potential benefits to be reaped from a rate cut: Craig James

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Strong, modest and even in decline. That was how the RBA board views the various residential property markets around the country.
A bit like the three bears and their porridge. And they thrown in a commercial property risks warning too.
The central bank advised the current strength of housing construction and the increase in housing prices were expected to provide a measure of support for consumption, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2015/2015-03-03" target="_blank">according to the RBA March minutes</a>.
It noted housing price growth remained strongest in Sydney and to a lesser extent Melbourne, while price rises in other parts of the country had been more modest, while prices had even declined in some cities recently. 
"A range of indicators, including residential building approvals, suggested further strong growth of dwelling investment in the near term," the minutes said.
"Growth in housing credit for owner-occupiers had remained around 6% in six-month-ended annualised terms, while growth in credit for housing investors was noticeably faster, at over 10% measured on the same basis."
The minutes noted activity in the housing market had remained strong. 
"Housing prices had continued to increase strongly in Sydney and at a solid pace in Melbourne. 
"In other capital cities, trends had been more mixed and annual increases in capital city housing prices (excluding Sydney and Melbourne) had averaged about 3 per cent. 
"Growth of dwelling investment was estimated to have picked up in the December quarter and was expected to remain at a high level in the near term. 
"While credit had continued to grow a little faster than incomes, household leverage had not increased significantly and the Bank would continue to work with other regulators to assess and contain risks that might arise from the housing market."
It noted risks in the household sector continued to be centred on housing and mortgage markets. 
"The composition of these markets remained skewed to investor activity, especially in Sydney. 
"Members noted that, at the margin, the recent decline in interest rates could boost the housing market, including prices. 
"The measures announced by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority and Australian Securities and Investments Commission in December were designed to temper the housing market risks faced both by households and lenders, although these risks also needed to be placed in the context of the prevailing low levels of household stress."
The bank made a rare commentary on the commercial property markets.
"Members further noted that risks had been beginning to build in commercial property markets, including developers of residential as well as non-residential property. Prices in several market segments had been rising, even as vacancy rates remained high and leasing conditions weakened," the minutes said.
In conclusion the board minutes noted the current setting of monetary policy had been accommodative for some time and that the recent reduction in the cash rate would provide some further support to the economy. 
"They also acknowledged that a lower exchange rate would help achieve balanced growth in the economy. 
"Nonetheless, on the basis of the current forecasts for growth and inflation, members were of the view that a case to ease monetary policy further might emerge.
 
"In considering whether or not to reduce the cash rate further at this meeting, members saw benefit in allowing some time for the structure of interest rates and the economy to adjust to the earlier change.
"They also saw advantages in receiving more data to indicate whether or not the economy was on the previously forecast path.
"Further, they noted the greater degree of uncertainty about the behaviour of borrowers and savers in a world of very low interest rates.
"Taking account of all these factors, members judged it appropriate to hold the cash rate steady for the time being, while recognising that further easing over the period ahead may be appropriate to foster sustainable growth in demand while maintaining inflation consistent with the target."
 
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Commercial property risks looms as housing credit for investors outstrips owner-occupiers: RBA March meeting minutes

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Macquarie Wealth Research has noted May is the third most popular month for RBA policy changes.
Rates were cut in May twice in the past three years. The post-CPI, Statement on Monetary Policy meeting window offers a prime presentational opportunity for cuts.
<img src="/images/2015/03/11/interest-rates-march-11-one.jpg" alt="">
But the bank thinks the risk lies with the RBA being sidelined through May.
"Perceived popularity challenges for the government mean the fiscal environment is more charged than normal," the bank advised clients.
"The release of the Intergenerational Report means the fiscal policy window starts early.
"Confidence took a hit from the last Budget.
"The leadership landscape is such that there is a risk an RBA policy move could be co-opted as proof, or judgement, of the quality of the Budget or of the leadership.
"A June decision could be similarly tainted.
"The air clears from July, which brings August into the frame."
The bank thinks that an RBA cut in April is also unlikely.
"Having received the capex figures, and the suite of GDP partial components, there is little in the way of top tier domestic data to drive the RBA to hold over a decision until April," the bank said.
"The one catalyst we could envisage would be the release of the semi-annual Financial Stability Review (FSR) on 25 March.
"Given the hyperbole that has followed the February cut, the FSR would provide the RBA with the opportunity to present its assessment of the financial stability risks arising from future rate cuts.
"This is an unlikely scenario for an April decision, but one which can’t be ruled out given the infancy of macro prudential tools in Australia."
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