Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Interest Rates

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Home loan lender, ME, has announced a range of interest rate cuts across variable and fixed rate products.
It included introducing a variable rate below 4 percent for new owner occupier with a maximum LVR of 80 percent. The variable rate for new owner occupier loans has been discounted by 6 basis points to 3.95 percent. This is an 88 basis point discount off the reference rate for the life of the loan. The variable rate on its investment Flexible Home Loan with Member Package has been reduced by 9 basis points to 4.15 percent. This is a 68 basis point discount off the reference rate. The non-major has also cut its one and two-year fixed rates by 30 basis points on its Flexible Home Loan for owner occupiers to 3.99 percent.
The four and five-year fixed rates have been cut by 10 basis points to 4.49 percent. For investors, the Flexible Home Loan has been discounted by 20 basis points on its one and two-year fixed rates, to 4.09 percent, effective yesterday.
For more information, <a href="https://www.mebank.com.au" target="_blank">click here</a>.
Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to cut the cash rate in May, demand for variable rate mortgages has risen, according to Mortgage Choice’s latest national home loan approval data.
Variable rate home loans accounted for 76% of all loans written in May – up from 75% the month prior.   “After the Reserve Bank’s decision to cut the cash rate at its May Board meeting, three of the four majors passed on the full rate cut – trimming their variable rates by 25 basis points,” Mortgage Choice chief executive officer John Flavell said.   “With that in mind, it was hardly surprising to see a lift in demand for variable rate products this month. Borrowers are clearly looking to take advantage of the historically low rate environment.   “And, with many economists predicting at least one more rate cut this calendar year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see demand for variable rate products remaining strong for the foreseeable future.”   Across the country, demand for variable rate products was highest in Victoria, with this type of product accounting for 86% of all loans written in May.   Variable rate demand was lowest in New South Wales, with this type of product accounting for 71.47% of all loans written.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

ME drops variable home loan rate to below 4 percent

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GUEST OBSERVER
Cash interest rates are at 1.75 percent - a historic low in Australia. This low rate means that it is an opportune time to invest in property and the number of investments acquirable is maximised.
However, interest rates are an issue of contention in popular media. There has been much speculation about why they are so low, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to reduce them for this month, and whether interest rates are likely to go up or down next. 
A common question that we are asked is how will an increased interest rate affect my investment property? To understand this, it’s vital to understand what drives interest rates to rise and fall. In short, interest rates respond to a growth, or decline, in the economy. 
For example, a number of investors that I speak to are afraid of history repeating itself, and I’m often reminded of the late eighties, when interest rates were up at 17 per cent. 
This is a significantly higher rate than what we are seeing today, however the median house price grew 50 per cent when interest rates were at that level (between 1987-1989). 
This was a time of extreme inflation and economic growth for Australia, pushing up property prices, but also wages. 
Applying this to 2016, the RBA explains their choice to leave interest rates at historic lows using a few different points. 
It is suggested by the RBA that the global economy is growing at a slower pace than predicted, commodity prices have declined, financial markets remain volatile, and inflation is low. 
These conditions lead to the RBA to their decision, stating that monetary policy must remain accommodative, and low interest rates support demand. 
As demonstrated, the national and global economy has a direct effect on interest rates in Australia, but what happens to your investment if they go up? Investors are often concerned that an increase in interest rates will mean that they will no longer be able to afford to hold their investment property. 
Fortunately, this is not true. As mentioned, interest rates typically move in response to a growth in the economy. This leads to an increase of property values, wages, and rental income. 
Further to this, higher interest rates lead to more advantageous tax benefits becoming available. If the value of your investment property grows significantly, substantial equity is created, in turn increasing your borrowing capacity and number of properties acquirable. 
It is difficult to predict what will happen next, however a fear of increasing interest rates should not deter you from investing in a property. If you’ve been thinking about investing for some time, today’s low interest rates are likely to maximise your success. 
Michael Beresford is director, OpenCorp and can be contacted <a href="https://www.opencorp.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
  
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Ambiguous interest rates and their effect on your investments

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Fixed, split or variable? Home buyers are always faced with the dilemma as to which is the best mortgage for their needs.
Interest rates being fickle, bank loan approvals usually take into account rate rises to make sure the repayment is still affordable, though in the end it still boils down to an individual's capacity to repay. 
The current low interest rate environment has translated to a growth in fixed loans. 
Let's look at each type of mortgage:
Fixed
The biggest advantage of fixed-rate loans is the predictability that comes with it, giving you some peace of mind as you are largely insulated from interest rate fluctuations. 
ASX-listed Mortgage Choice reported earlier this year that the demand for fixed rate home loans hit its highest level in more than 12 months, citing national home loan approval data, with fixed rate home loans accounting for 23.62 percent of all loans written in January, up from 19.44 percent in the previous month. 
But while considering fixed-rate loans, you must carefully consider the time period over which you would be comfortable with paying fixed payments.  
If interest rates drop during this period, you might end up paying more. Obviously, how much lower is the question. Because at present, RBA's cash rate of 1.75 percent is already at record lows.
The best aspect of fixed rate, however, is that it allows you to plan ahead as you already know how much to set aside for the mortgage payment each month.
The popular fixed rate products are usually around three to five years. 
Property Observer went looking for the cheapest fixed home loans on <a href="https://mozo.com.au/home-loans/fixed-rate" target="_blank">mozo.com.au</a> and found that Illawarra Credit Union with an interest rate of 3.5 percent for the first year of mortgage was the one with the lowest rate. It was followed by Greater Bank at 3.79 percent, Illawarra Credit Union with 3.85 percent (for two years), loans.com.au at 3.99 percent and last Hunter United Credit Union at 3.98 percent. 
Fixed-rate loans come with a caveat. If you try to pay off your fixed-rate loan, fixed rate break costs and discharge fees apply.
If your home loan is fixed or if it was setup before July 2011, the exit fees can be significant.
So it may be worth considering a variable rate if your plan is to sell the property after some quickly realised gains. 
Some fixed rate loans include redraw facilities, and some have more flexible terms around repayments allowing you to pay extra up to a certain amount.
Variable
When it comes to variable rate loans, flexibility is the buzz word.
Variable interest rates tend to be lower than fixed rate products, and will have more features as well. However, they do come with an added risk, that of rising interest rates increasing your mortgage payments. So you need to be covered when interest rates rise.
If you’re borrowing less than you can handle, then you may decide that a variable rate is a good option in the immediate term – you can always fix later if necessary.
As of May 17, 2016, the top variable rates offered by lenders varied from 3.63 percent to 4.20 percent, according to mozo.com.au.
Independent lender <a href="https://offers.mortgagehouse.com.au/autumn-special/?campaignid=22150&amp;sourceid=45&amp;gclid=CIXG1-q-4swCFVcnvQodjnoJow" target="_blank">www.mortgagehouse.com.au</a> is offering a variable rate of 3.52% for the first six months, which then reverts to 4.02%. The lender also claims that it doesn't have expensive overheads unlike banks, which allows it to better customise its products and offer lower rates to customers.
Another advantage of variable interest rate home loans is that paying lump sums is easier with fewer associated costs than fixed rate loans.
If you know you cannot increase your repayments significantly, and there's a sudden vacancy in an investment property, then a rate rise can impact you. On the other hand, a rate cut will mean you could find yourself with a bit of extra cash on hand or paying off your mortgage sooner. 
Split
A 'split loan' is a comfortable compromise between the pros and cons of fixed and variable interest rate loans, according to a blog on the website of Suncorp Bank. A split mortgage allows you to reap the benefits of both the security of fixed rate loan and the flexibility of a variable interest rate loan. 
How it works is that you can allocate a portion of your loan amount to attract a variable interest rate, and another portion to a fixed rate, thus you have the security and the flexibility. The split may not necessarily be 50/50, it can be what you are comfortable with.
This provides you partial protection from future interest rate changes.
This may be a good option if you plan to pay off your loan earlier. The extra repayments you make can be solely done on the variable component of the loan.
However, you may have to pay the costs should you wish to break the fixed portion as that part is considered a fixed mortgage. 
As always, these are just rough guidelines and one should always consult a loan specialist to figure out which product is best suited to your needs.
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How to decide: Fixed, split and variable home loan interest rates

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GUEST OBSERVER
If Reserve Bank Board members had to be “persuaded” to cut rates, it is clear that there was a variety of views.
It also seems clear that there was some reluctance to cut rates. And that is understandable. Ordinarily you cut rates if the economy is weakening and needs and extra kick along. But that is certainly not the case. The issue is solely inflation, more specifically, the outlook for inflation.
Inflation is tipped to remain low and that means that the economy could grow a little faster. Board members also had to be comfortable (“persuaded?) that a rate cut wouldn’t cause the housing market to become over-inflated.
<a href="/images/2016/05/17/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-17%20at%202.56.54%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/05/17/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-17%20at%202.56.54%20PM.png" alt="">
It is important to remember that there is no formal vote at Reserve Bank Board meetings. Decisions are arrived at by consensus (a “collegiate approach”). Reserve Bank Board members are no doubt a touch sceptical that rate cuts still work to lift growth and inflation at low nominal levels.
Some economists and strategists have pushed for another rate cut in June. This is now far from likely. The “rate cut school” are failing to properly understand the position of Reserve Bank Board members. The Reserve Bank Board will wait for the next inflation data at the end of July. There is no rush. And Board members may have to again be convinced that a rate cut is a useful thing to do.
Another rate cut may occur in August but it all depends on inflation. If the economy continues to out-perform and the housing market remains bubbly then the Board will remain firmly on the sidelines. A key question is whether a rate cut would actually do anything – it could up being counter-productive – causing people to fret that the economy is in some form of trouble.   What do the figures show? Reserve Bank Board minutes
The key quotes from the Board minutes:
Summary: “Members discussed the merits of adjusting policy at this meeting or awaiting further information before acting. On balance, members were persuaded that prospects for sustainable growth in the economy, with inflation returning to target over time, would be improved by easing monetary policy at this meeting.”
Summary: “In coming to their policy decision, members noted that developments over recent months had not led to a material change in the outlook for economic activity or the unemployment rate, but the outlook for inflation had been revised lower. At the same time, they took careful note of developments in the housing market, which indicated that supervisory measures were strengthening lending standards and that the potential risks of lowering interest rates therefore were less than they had been a year earlier.”
Australian dollar: “The exchange rate depreciation since early 2013 was assisting with growth and the economic adjustment process, although an appreciating exchange rate could complicate this.”
<a href="/images/2016/05/17/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-17%20at%203.09.11%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/05/17/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-17%20at%203.09.11%20PM.png" alt="">
Inflation: “…the CPI data had indicated that weakness in domestic cost pressures had been broadly based. Non-tradables inflation had declined further in March to around its lowest year-ended rate since the late 1990s, reflecting low growth in labour costs and a range of other factors, including heightened retail competition, a moderation in conditions in housing rental and construction markets, and declines in the cost of business inputs such as fuel and utilities.”
Wages: “…information from the Bank's business liaison suggested that firms generally had been unwilling to make offers of wage growth below 2 per cent. But if inflation was to be persistently lower than previously forecast, it was possible that, in time, this could be reflected in lower wage growth.
Consumer spending: “Information from the Bank's liaison with retailers suggested some moderation in trading conditions in 2016, although conditions had remained generally positive.”
Consumer confidence
The ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose by 1.1 per cent to 115.1 in the week to May 15.
Confidence is up 0.4 percent over the year and above the average of 112.1 since 2014. Two of the five components of the index rose in the latest week:
The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was  down from +5 to +4; The estimate of family finances over the next year was  down from +26 to +25; Economic conditions over the next 12 months was  up from -3 to +3; Economic conditions over the next 5 years was  up from +7 to +10; The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was down from +34 points to +33 points.
New car sales:
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) new vehicle sales fell by 2.5 per cent in April after rising by 2.2 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms in March. Passenger car sales fell by 1.2 per cent, while sales of sports utility vehicles fell by 2.6 per cent and sales of “other” vehicles (includes utilities, panel vans, cab chassis, goods carrying vans, rigid trucks, prime movers, non-freight carrying trucks, and buses) fell by 4.8 per cent.
New vehicles sales were up by 2.4 percent over the year. Passenger car sales in April were up by 0.6 percent over the year while SUVs sales were up by 1.6 percent and “other vehicles” were up by 7.8 percent.
Sales across the country in April: NSW (-1.5 per cent); Victoria (+0.1 per cent); Queensland (-7.7 per cent); South Australia (-4.5 per cent); Western Australia (-1.3 per cent); Tasmania (+0.9 per cent); Northern Territory (-6.7 per cent); ACT (-1.8 per cent).
In rolling annual terms, a record 1,169,057 new vehicles were sold over the year to April. Sales of SUVs (423,744) hit record highs in annual terms, while annual sales of “other” vehicles stood at a 32-month high of 238,309.
Sales of passenger vehicles lifted from a near 19-year low of 505,348 to 507,004 in the year to April.
SUVs accounted for a record 45.53 per cent of combined  passenger car and SUV sales in the year to April.
What is the importance of the economic data?
The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence  closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics  provides seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of industry data. The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries  releases estimates of car sales  on the third business day of the month. The figures highlight the strength of consumer spending as well as conditions facing auto &amp; components companies.
The Reserve Bank releases minutes of its monthly Board meeting  a fortnight after the event. The minutes give a guide to Reserve Bank thinking on interest rate settings. What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
Future rate cuts are wholly dependent on inflation. If the next inflation figures are even slightly above RBA and market forecasts, then the Reserve Bank Board members will stay on the interest rate sidelines.
Australia is probably the only country in the world where rate cuts aren’t prompted by weakness in the economy.
Twice the Reserve Bank mentioned “heightened retail competition”. Global tech-led disruption is driving down costs, prices, wages and, in turn, interest rates.
Consumer confidence is remarkably positive despite the election now being in full swing and despite a weaker Aussie dollar.
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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Reserve Bank Board reluctant to cut rates: CommSec's Craig James

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GUEST OBSERVER
The minutes of the May monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board provide only one additional insights to the Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) which printed on May 6.
This insight is in the final paragraph of the “Considerations” section where it emphasised the closeness of the decision to cut the overnight cash rate using the qualification, ”members discussed the merits of adjusting policy at this meeting or awaiting further information before acting.” This wording which may be interpreted as a truism is, nevertheless, not always used and would therefore cast considerable doubt on prospects for a follow up move before our preferred date of August when further information on inflation will be available.
In the SOMP and repeated in these minutes the following key observation was made: “Members noted that developments over recent months had not led to a material change in the outlook for economic activity or the unemployment rate but the outlook for inflation had been revised lower.” The Board also noted that developments in the housing market represented less risk of overstimulating with a further rate cut.
The discussion on inflation highlighted the following points – “weakness in domestic cost pressures had been broadly based reflecting low growth in labour costs and a range of other factors including heightened retail competition, a moderation in conditions in housing rental and construction markets and declines in the cost of business inputs such as fuel and utilities”. It was also noted that low wage growth and heightened retail competition appeared to have limited the extent to which importers were passing on higher import prices to retail prices.
Particular emphasis is given to subdued growth in labour costs (a bit weaker over 2015 than expected). It is important to note that the Bank’s forecasts embody the expectation that growth in the wage price index will stabilise around current rates before gradually picking up later in the forecast period. Bank liaison suggested that firms had been unwilling to make offers of wage growth below 2%. In this regard the next wage price index which prints tomorrow will be closely watched. Westpac expects a 0.4% print down from 0.5% last quarter and 0.6%’s in previous quarters – if correct this result will certainly unnerve the authorities although, in our view, not sufficiently to trigger a rate cut before our current timing of August by which time the Bank will have received the full picture on price developments from the June quarter inflation report.
As discussed above the inflation outlook was the only real change from previous assessments. Employment is expected to continue to grow at a slower pace than had been evident over the previous year and the unemployment rate was expected to remain around 5¾% over the next year or so before gradually declining. This outlook is broadly in line with that set out in February and from our perspective is somewhat cautious. For example, Westpac expects the unemployment rate to have edged down to 5.4% by mid next year.
Consistent with the Bank retaining its 3% growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017 in the May SoMP the commentary around the overall real economy is broadly unchanged. Further strong growth in dwelling investment is expected; house prices are expected to grow moderately; indicators of business investment intentions remain weak with non-mining investment only forecast to gradually pick up later in the forecast period and the magnitude of mining investment was expected to diminish over the next couple of years.
At the time of the May Board meeting the AUD was around USD 0.76 and TWI 63.3 prompting the following observation in the minutes: “the exchange rate depreciation since early 2013 was assisting with growth and the economic adjustment process, although an appreciating exchange rate could complicate this.” That compares with USD 0.73 and TWI 61.4 today, providing the Board with considerable comfort around the impact of the AUD on Australia’s growth prospects.
As discussed in the SoMP the Bank appears to be increasingly nervous about China. While recognising the short term impact of more stimulatory policy settings the minutes conclude that these actions might adversely affect financial stability and the economic outlook in China more broadly in the medium term.
There would also appear to be a scaling back in the RBA’s expectations for US Federal Reserve policy. Rather than refer to the Fed’s tightening cycle the minutes now choose to quote market pricing which implies at most one 25bp increase in the Federal Funds rate during 2016.
Conclusion
It is difficult to see any significant additional insights in these minutes relative to the more comprehensive Statement on Monetary Policy.
With reasonable prospects for ongoing above-trend growth we expect that the Bank will be satisfied that its next rate cut in August will provide further support for its current forecast that underlying inflation will be back near the bottom of the target zone in 2017. However, clearly with the evidence of today’s minutes emphasising the importance of the inflation outlook, risks to our current forecast must remain to the downside.
Bill Evans is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
 
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RBA minutes show importance of inflation to rate cut decision: Westpac's Bill Evans

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GUEST OBSERVER
Today's RBA minutes, which record the deliberations that led to the 3 May cut in the cash rate, showed that the central bank had discussed both the possibility of cutting rates at that meeting or 'awaiting further information before acting'. 
The minutes note that the board had an extensive discussion about the Q1 CPI figures and the outlook for inflation given the dynamics of the labour market and current weak wages growth. The apparent hesitancy to cut, relayed in the minutes, supports our view that the RBA will probably choose to wait for the Q2 CPI print, due on 27 July, before cutting further. Our central case sees the RBA cutting to 1.50% in August and holding steady at that level over the subsequent quarters.
Facts
The RBA published the minutes for its 3 May board meeting at which the central bank decided to cut its cash rate by 25bp to 1.75%. A cut was only 45:55 priced going into the meeting and 12 of 27 economists in the Bloomberg survey expected a cut (HSBC expected a cut).
Implications
Today's minutes revealed that the 3 May board meeting, in which the RBA cut its cash rate by 25bp to 1.75%, was a fairly close call. As the minutes noted, the board had 'discussed the merits of adjusting policy at [that] meeting or awaiting further information before acting'.
The minutes report that the board spent a considerable amount of time discussing the Q1 CPI numbers and the outlook for inflation. The key question was the extent to which the new CPI numbers, which had surprised significantly to the downside, provided a signal about the on-going trend in inflation and to what extent the weaker inflation print was temporary or due to measurement error.
In the end, the board determined that the new information did materially change the inflation outlook and they delivered a 25bp cut in the cash rate to 1.75% (as we had expected).
However, the degree of hesitancy revealed in the minutes suggests that the RBA is likely to be reluctant to follow-up with a further cut without further clear information on the disinflationary trend. To us, this suggests that the RBA is unlikely to cut further until after the next CPI print, which is due to be published on 27 July.
Despite making no changes to the RBA's growth forecasts, the central bank did make a significant downward revision to its inflation forecasts. Underlying inflation had previously been expected to run near the bottom edge of the 2-3% target band, but the new forecasts showed that it was expected to remain around 1-2% over 2016 and to pick up to 1.5-2.5% by mid-2018.
This adjustment to the forecasts seemingly reflects much more than just the downside surprise to the Q1 CPI print. Rather, it is significant shift in the way the RBA sees the interaction of growth, the labour market, wages growth and inflation.
We also see a significant part of the downward adjustment to the underlying inflation forecasts as tactical. In our view, the RBA now wanted a set of inflation forecasts where the chances of a downside surprise are very low. Further downside surprises to the inflation numbers could put the credibility of the inflation targeting regime at risk. They also wanted the inflation forecasts to bolster the easing bias, despite the cut that was delivered, and in doing so, put further downward pressure on the AUD. The sharp fall in the AUD since the board meeting suggests that this tactic has worked.
We see the RBA as likely to cut further. Our central case has another 25bp cut in the cash rate to 1.50%, delivered in August, just after the Q2 CPI print. We then expect that, over time, underlying inflation may very well be a touch stronger than the RBA is forecasting, allowing the central bank to hold steady and point out that, although underlying inflation is below target, it is moving in the right direction and ahead of the forecasts. In doing this, the RBA would make use of the flexibility that is explicit in its inflation targeting regime. We see the forecasts themselves as a device that the RBA is using to loosen financial conditions.
<a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC.
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RBA likely to wait until August to cut again: HSBC's Paul Bloxham

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Stabilising house prices: May monetary Reserve Bank board minutes

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The former head of the property division of Macquarie Group Bill Moss has said property prices could see a 30 percent price reduction should negative gearing change under the property Labor opposition plans.
Speaking to Macquarie Radio broadcaster, Ross Greenwood on Money News yesterday, Moss said it will be like a brand new car and a second hand car.
"It's going to be like buying a brand new car, as soon as you take it on the road the value drops," he said.
"It'll be the same in real estate.
"What's the difference going to be?
"Well its going to depend on interest rates, the economy at the time, it could be 30 percent, it could be more," he said.
Moss said that negative gearing just seems to work and like other commentators clearly feels it shouldn't be tampered with.
"We've seen it have a bit of oversupply, a bit of undersupply, but ultimately there are plenty of people out there putting their own equity into buy real estate so others can rent.
"If you start playing with it you can have some major consequences," he said.
"You can see property moving outwards and I think you could possibly even see a lot of people say 'well look I'm not going to be in that sector of investment'".
Moss said that if you play with negative gearing and reduce it there will be less houses being built, which has a number of effects.
"Number one there will be less jobs in the construction industry," he said.
"We're going to see a major downturn in growth in the economy, a lot more people unemployed."
"Ultimately, if you take it away people aren't going to invest in real estate, it's as simple as that."
To listed to the full interview <a href="https://www.2gb.com/article/former-macquarie-bank-executive-and-founder-fshd-global-research-foundation-bill-moss" target="_blank">click here.</a>
Aussie John Symond has warned of a potential recession if Labor's plan to limit negative gearing to freshly constructed dwellings goes ahead, calling it "frightening" in an appearance on Seven's Sunrise program on Sunday. 
"Who knows? I don't know whether prices will drop 10 percent, 20 percent or more," he said.
The property tycoon and founder of Aussie Home Loans predicted a slide in home prices under Labor.
"It is frightening and it will frighten others . . . and it creates this stampede. And that's my concern that there could be a glut of properties come on the market, force the prices down, and then all of a sudden it could be Armageddon with the housing industry that's propped up the Australian economy the last four years."
Symond joins another industry leader, Stockland boss who expressed a similiar recession fear last week. 
Mark Steinert, chief executive of Australia's largest residential property developer, Stockland, believes Labor's housing policy has "the potential to destabilise the entire economy" – to the extent of "risking a recession".
"At the end of the day, house prices are unlikely to adjust so much that it would really change that affordability equation anyway," Steinert told the Australian Financial Review.
"And if they do, believe me it won't be a recession. It will be a depression."
Steinert told columnist Jennifer Hewitt property is such a major force driving Australian growth and activity, that even a small change in the market and in sentiment flows through the entire economy. 
"Housing represents $6.5 trillion of the Australian people's wealth," he told The Australian Financial Review.  
{mijopolls 142}
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Bill Moss predicts up to 30 percent price reduction under Labor's negative gearing, like old versus new car

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GUEST OBSERVER
For economists and others who ‘grew up’ being challenged to achieve low and stable inflation against the background of high and volatile inflation rates that emerged in Western countries in the 1970s (and persisted in Australia through the 1980s), the possibility inflation could be ‘too low’ can seem like something from another universe.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2-3% inflation target was more-or-less unilaterally promulgated by Bernie Fraser (who was RBA Governor from 1989 until 2006).
In a speech just after the 1993 election (at which the Liberal Opposition had advocated the introduction of a 0-2 percent inflation target, similar to that which had been adopted in New Zealand in 1989), Fraser suggested that:
“If the rate of inflation in underlying terms could be held to an average of 2-3 percent over a period of years, that would be a good outcome. Such a rate would be unlikely to materially affect business and consumer decisions, and it would avoid the unnecessary costs entailed in pursuing a lower rate.”
Although Bernie Fraser was initially “rather wary of inflation targets”, he explicitly couched the series of interest rate hikes he implemented during the second half of 1994 as being undertaken in order to maintain inflation within the 2-3 percent range.
The target was formally embodied in a Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy agreed between newly-installed Treasurer Peter Costello and newly-appointed RBA Governor Ian Macfarlane shortly after the 1996 election, and has been re-iterated after each change of government and upon each appointment of a new RBA Governor ever since.
Australia’s approach to inflation targeting differs from that of most other countries which have inflation targets in two important respects. First, it does not stem from a government directive, nor is it enshrined in legislation. As former Governor Ian Macfarlane has said, “the government didn’t introduce it, we introduced it”.
The Reserve Bank does not have to “explain itself” to politicians if it “misses” its target for some reason. Second, the target is intentionally and explicitly flexible. It is expressed as a range, to be achieved “on average” and “over the course of the business cycle” (a term which is not anywhere defined), rather than at all times and in all places, as it were.
This means that the Reserve Bank can “tolerate” inflation being either above or below the target for a temporary period if it has good reason to believe that the deviation is only temporary, or is the result of some one-off factor whose influence will soon pass, without needing to take monetary policy actions to push it back into the target range more quickly but which would, in the RBA’s judgement, not otherwise be necessary.
This “flexible inflation targeting regime” has served Australia well over the past two-and-a-bit decades. The target is widely perceived to be “credible” – that is, it is widely recognised and understood that the Reserve Bank will do what it needs to do in order to ensure that it is achieved (as it demonstrated, for example, in 1994 and in 2007).
As a result, it has served to “anchor” inflationary expectations – that is, to give participants in the economy (businesses, consumers, union officials, governments and others) a sound basis for expecting that inflation will average somewhere between 2 and 3% over the medium-to-longer term – as it was intended to do.
And it has allowed the RBA to keep interest rates more stable than would have been the case if it had been required to chase after inflation on each and every occasion on which it temporarily departed from the target range.
With the annual “headline” rate of inflation having been below the bottom end of the 2-3% target range since the December quarter of 2014, and more recently the annual “underlying” inflation rate also having dropped below 2 percent, some have suggested that the inflation target should itself be lowered.
This would allow the central bank more room to accommodate unusually low inflation without having to cut rates to levels which might risk triggering unsustainable rates of credit growth and/or an asset price bubble.
Ironically, the opposite proposition was put during the resources boom of 2010-12, when some suggested that the RBA should increase its inflation target so as not to have to raise interest rates as much in the face of the inflationary pressures which it was feared that boom might engender.
The RBA resisted such calls on that occasion, and should do so on this. As it is formulated, the RBA’s flexible inflation target gives it latitude to determine how dogmatic it needs to be in pursuit of “low and stable” inflation.
If it were to change its target every time it appeared as though inflation might be either above or below the target range for an extended period, the target would eventually lose whatever role it has as an “anchor” for inflation expectations, increasing the chance that inflation would – as a result of the well-documented propensity of inflation expectations to become self-fulfilling – remain above or below the target for even longer, and perhaps by even wider margins.
Australia’s inflation targeting regime has served the country well, and the challenges it faces at this time are not so great as to warrant altering it.
Saul Eslake is Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, University of Tasmania and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/saul-eslake-665" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Why the Reserve Bank should resist calls to alter its inflation range: Saul Eslake

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Greater Bank has cut fixed home loan rates (owner occupier and investment) by up to 0.25 percent and announced a 5 year fixed home loan rate under 4 percent.
The 5 year Ultimate Home Loan will be 3.99 percent from Monday May 16.  
The rate applies to owner occupier loans worth more than $150,000 where the loan to value ratio does not exceed 85 percent. 
The comparison rate is 4.48 percent. The three and four year rates are also 3.99 percent (comparison rates 4.51 percent and 4.49 percent respectively).
Greater Bank also cut all variable home loan rates by 0.25 percent this month.
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