Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Interest Rates

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/66486/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
When Australia’s central bank moves interest rates as part of its monetary policy, it’s not just politicians who stand to lose if banks don’t follow suit. 
Retail lending markets form an integral part of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. If interest rate rises are passed on at a different rate to cuts it can adversely affect the efficacy of expansionary versus contractionary monetary policy.
In August 2016, APRA data showed the big four Australian banks held 83 percent of the home loan market (including both the owner occupier and investment categories). 
At an individual level, the ability and willingness of lenders to pass on the official interest rate cuts to borrowers depends on many factors. These include exposure to overseas funding sources, market power, the funding mix, reserves and the extent of securitisation. But it’s also clear delaying interest rate cuts can significantly impact their bottom line.
According to my analysis, the big four banks can make approximately $A8.6 million per day as a group if they do not fully pass onto borrowers a hypothetical 0.25 percent cut in the RBA’s cash rate. 
<a href="/images/2016/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-06%20at%2011.08.06%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-06%20at%2011.08.06%20AM.png" alt="">
More specifically, if ANZ, CBA, NAB and Westpac manage to postpone lowering their mortgage interest rates say by 10 days, they can potentially make an extra A$16, A$28, A$16 and $A26 million dollars in profits, respectively.
Previous studies on mortgages, small business loans and credit card interest rates have found significant evidence for the “rockets and feathers” hypothesis. That is, when the cash rate increases, various lending rates shoot up like rockets but when the opposite occurs they go down like feathers.
In my research I used monthly data (2000-2012) for 39 bank and non-bank financial institutions including 7 building societies, 15 Australian-owned banks, 3 foreign subsidiary banks, 13 credit unions, and 1 major mortgage broker. The research found the mortgage interest rate spread of all lenders rose after the 2008 global financial crisis, albeit to varying degrees. 
In general, the research shows most building societies and some credit unions can offer more competitive home loans than banks.
There is no significant relationship between lenders’ markups and the level of over the counter customer service since the 2008 financial crisis. This is an important observation as the mortgage spreads of larger lenders are typically higher than those of their smaller non-bank counterparts. This puts lie to the view that the relatively higher mortgage interest rates of the larger banks in Australia are justified by higher overhead costs associated with the running of their large branch networks.
Abbas Valadkhani is professor of economics, Swinburne University of Technology, and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/abbas-valadkhani-177513" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Banks make millions in delaying interest rate cuts

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Borrowers can secure lower interest rates despite the Reserve Bank of Australia keeping its official rate on hold because of the cutthroat competition among lenders, says mortgage broker network 1300HomeLoan.
The RBA maintained its cash rate at a record low of 1.5 per cent earlier this week, but 1300 HomeLoan managing director John Kolenda said due to the intense competition between lenders, borrowers don't need to wait for the RBA to make a move.
“While the RBA's cash rate remains unchanged, variable and fixed interest rates offered by the banks are continuing to tumble,” he said.
“There is a great opportunity in the current lending climate to get a further rate cut independently of an RBA decision and save money.”
Kolenda suggested that variable home loan interest rates should start at three percent and anybody paying more than four per cent, including fixed rates, was paying too much.
He attributed the higher payments due to the repricing over the last six months.
“I suspect many banks are considering future repricing opportunities as they face further pressure from funding costs, additional compliance costs and pressures of return on equity for their shareholders,” he said.
“The good news though for consumers is that any future rate rises will be minimal and they can count on the low interest rate climate to continue for many years.”
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Lower mortgage rates possible despite RBA hold: 1300HomeLoan

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GUEST OBSERVER
Funding markets have shown some stress in recent weeks as investors and borrowers prepare for imminent structural reforms and amid cyclical issues around banks.
We look at the recent moves in single currency and cross-currency basis markets, USD Libor and credit spreads.
With less than two weeks until US money market funds are required to comply with new liquidity and asset rules, we opine on the outlook for funding markets.
Funding markets have seen significant shifts in recent weeks as markets prepare for the upcoming new money market rules in the US. The rules, outlined in US money market reform 2a-7 primer, will come into force on 14 October.
In addition to money market reform, a confluence of factors has increased the cost of funding, namely quarter and year-end as well as concerns around European banks. There has been in recent weeks the usual pickup in funding stresses associated with quarter end – normally because of the need for 3 month funding which rolls over the ‘turn’ of the calendar year (or financial year end for US banks).
With banks now less willing to have significant balance sheet items over their year-end, the cost of USD funds will remain elevated. This quarter end has seen an escalation of this normal arrangement due to the money market reform being implemented at the same time.
Furthermore, as investments shift out of ‘prime’ funds (those who hold credit) to government only funds, the ability of both banks and corporate borrowers who access short-term funding has been diminished. This has forced borrowers out the term curve – or in the case of sectors of the bank market – to simply ‘pay up’ for alternate sources of funding.
<a href="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%205.27.32%20PM.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%205.27.32%20PM.jpg" alt="">
The demand for USD has shown up in the sharp moves in 3 month cross-currency basis swaps (Figure 1) which have lifted the cost of funding sharply in the last week. The JPY basis has been driven by the structural need for Japanese banks to find a new funding source given their large reliance on US MMFs. This issue has not been fully addressed despite an increase in USD funds available from the BoJ. That said, it has led to a wider ‘Japan premium’ (which is the cost of USD 3 month Libor for Japanese banks relative to other members of the Libor panel).
THE BASIS FOR OTHER MOVES
In comparison, the move higher in USD FRA/OIS and Libor/OIS, as well as a gradual but significant rise in 3 and 6 month USD Libor since mid-year, has been gentler. The move in EUR cross-currency basis (see Figure) 1 has come at a time when European banks have been under the spotlight. This unwanted introduction of a systemic threat has augmented the current demand for USD funding.
The basis has moved to the most negative level (highest cost for USD funds) since the European sovereign crisis period in 2012. Both prior to this period and since, central banks have introduced a number of measures to allow for USD liquidity in times of stress.
After a reasonably steady period, the basis has dropped from -25bp to -59bp since mid- September. The spread remains a long way from its historic lows of -210bp in 2008-09 and the -160bp level seen in 2011.
<a href="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%205.27.38%20PM.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%205.27.38%20PM.jpg" alt="">
The demand for USD via the ECB's 1 week funding mechanism has also seen a sharp rise. Last week’s auctions for 1 week USD funding saw just under USD6.4bn awarded to twelve banks. This was the largest amount requested since 2014.
<a href="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%205.27.48%20PM.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%205.27.48%20PM.jpg" alt="">
In the FRA markets, the modest move wider for EUR FRA/OIS has not been matched by the sharper USD move. This suggests that concerns over European banks have not yet shown up in funding for EUR. In fact, the 3 month Euribor/OIS spread is little moved and is at multi-year lows. We believe any stresses are likely to show up in the USD funding markets – rather than in EUR.
<a href="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%205.27.57%20PM.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%205.27.57%20PM.jpg" alt="">
A RISING TIDE
The single currency basis market, at least for USD, has steepened sharply in the last year and has risen significantly higher than the levels seen during the 2012 European crisis. Similarly the USD 3s/1s basis curve has steepened to the highest level since 2009. 3s/1s sits at 25bp, around 3bp higher than what it reached in the European crisis. In the last few weeks, domestic USD basis has stabilised at these elevated levels.
Looking at the forward curves for single currency basis, it would appear that the peak for the 1 year basis has been set and will begin to match the forwards. The risk to this view would be a sustained period of higher USD funding costs and increased market expectations for Fed hikes.
In time, such an outcome should narrow the 1 year 6s/3s and 5 year 6s/3s basis, driven by a rise in the latter.
<a href="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%205.28.08%20PM.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%205.28.08%20PM.jpg" alt="">
OUTLOOK FOR FUNDING POST US MONEY MARKET REFORM
US money market funds now have less than ten days to comply with the new rules governing their operations. As Figure 6 shows, total holdings in prime funds are around USD600bn. While we expect some balance to be retained in the funds that choose to hold credit assets, there is likely to be further reduction in the coming days. This should, all things being equal, push USD Libor and USD Libor/OIS higher and wider.
It is worth noting that while the larger shifts in Libor have reflected a replacement premium for USD bank funding, corporate borrowers are also affected as they will need to source alternate means of funding. These may come via bank revolver credit facilities or through the term market as borrowers.
<a href="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%205.28.15%20PM.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/04/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-04%20at%205.28.15%20PM.jpg" alt="">
After the full implementation on 14 October, we expect markets to stabilise and for the Libor rate to reflect more cyclical news around the banking sector as well as the eventual addition of a premium or reflect market-based expectations of a Fed rate hike in December.
We also expect to see an increase in the issuance of term debt for banks as the ability to use short-term funding comes to an end. This more expensive method of borrowing also comes at a time when other regulatory requirements will be placed on the market.
WHAT TO WATCH
The key variables to watch will be the use of FX USD swap lines at the various central banks (primarily the BoJ and ECB). Domestic USD basis (6s/3s and 3s/1s) and 3 month JPY and EUR cross-currency basis are also important to gauge the demand for USD from non-US counterparties hedging loans, assets, and borrowings.
Bank credit spreads are an important gauge of the market’s perception of asset quality. While these have widened recently, they do not reflect significant concern. The CDS market, once a popular product in financial markets, has become an illiquid and poorly- traded instrument.
Lastly – and perhaps obviously – as the money market reforms are finalised, the USD Libor rate and spread to OIS are expected to rise a little further before stabilising and they represent a more realistic price for USD funding.
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Martin Whetton is senior rates strategist, ANZ. Katie Hill is strategist, ANZ. Both can be contacted <a href="https://www.anz.com/personal/" target="_blank">here.</a>
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What’s up in funding markets? ANZ's Martin Whetton and Katie Hill

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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 percent.
The global economy is continuing to grow, at a lower than average pace. Labour market conditions in the advanced economies have improved over the past year, but growth in global industrial production and trade remains subdued. Actions by Chinese policymakers have been supporting growth, but the underlying pace of growth in China has been moderating. Inflation remains below most central banks' targets.
Commodity prices have risen over recent months, following the very substantial declines over the past few years. The higher commodity prices have supported a rise in Australia's terms of trade, although they remain much lower than they have been in recent years.
Financial markets have continued to function effectively. Funding costs for high-quality borrowers remain low and, globally, monetary policy remains remarkably accommodative. Government bond yields are near their historical lows.
In Australia, the economy is continuing to grow at a moderate rate. The large decline in mining investment is being offset by growth in other areas, including residential construction, public demand and exports. Household consumption has been growing at a reasonable pace, but appears to have slowed a little recently. Measures of household and business sentiment remain above average.
Labour market indicators have been somewhat mixed. The unemployment rate has fallen further, although there is considerable variation in employment growth across the country. Part-time employment has been growing strongly, while growth in full-time employment has been subdued. The forward-looking indicators point to continued expansion in employment in the near term.
Inflation remains quite low. Given very subdued growth in labour costs and very low cost pressures elsewhere in the world, this is expected to remain the case for some time.
Low interest rates have been supporting domestic demand and the lower exchange rate since 2013 has been helping the traded sector. Financial institutions are in a position to lend for worthwhile purposes. These factors are all assisting the economy to make the necessary economic adjustments, though an appreciating exchange rate could complicate this.
Supervisory measures have strengthened lending standards in the housing market. Separately, a number of lenders are also taking a more cautious attitude to lending in certain segments. Growth in lending for housing has slowed over the past year. Turnover in the housing market has declined. The rate of increase in housing prices is lower than it was a year ago, although some markets have strengthened recently. Considerable supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years, particularly in the eastern capital cities. Growth in rents is the slowest for some decades.
Taking account of the available information, and having eased monetary policy at its May and August meetings, the Board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.
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Housing turnover in decline: Governor Philip Lowe October 2016 RBA statement

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The RBA cash rate decision came out at 2.30 today with the decision to hold rates at 1.5 percent.
The board noted supervisory measures have strengthened lending standards in the housing market.
It also noted separately, a number of lenders are also taking a more cautious attitude to lending in certain segments.
"Growth in lending for housing has slowed over the past year.
"Turnover in the housing market has declined.
"The rate of increase in housing prices is lower than it was a year ago, although some markets have strengthened recently.
"Considerable supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years, particularly in the eastern capital cities.
"Growth in rents is the slowest for some decades."
CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said after two rate cuts earlier in the year, the Reserve Bank’s decision to hold the cash rate at their historically low level of 1.5 percent came as no surprise. 
"Housing market conditions were almost certainly one of the topics discussed at the board meeting, as well as the stubbornly high Australian dollar, an inflation rate that is well below the target range of 2-3 percent and a remarkably strong rate of GDP growth released for the June quarter," he said.
"From a housing market perspective, the commentary theme from the RBA has been one of slowing conditions, which has broadly been confirmed by the CoreLogic Hedonic Index which has shown the annual trend rate of growth across the combined capital cities is now well below double digits at 7.1 percent over the year ending September 2016. 
"A year ago capital city dwelling values were rising by 11 percent per annum. Importantly, while growth conditions in the housing market have slowed, Sydney and Melbourne continue to record strong capital gains, albeit substantially lower than a year ago. 
"Sydney dwelling values were up 3.5 percent over the September quarter and the Melbourne values were stronger at 5.0 percent growth over the quarter.  Higher housing supply levels and lower levels of affordability are likely to naturally dampen some of the upwards pressure in housing markets, however investor activity has once again been consistently rising since June and some of the smaller capital city housing markets like Hobart and Canberra have been showing signs of accelerating.
"Clearly, the housing market is diverse and low interest rates are only one factor that is influencing conditions.  
"The RBA is likely to be monitoring the housing market closely, looking for any signs of accelerating capital gains in the larger markets, or a ramp up in speculative investment activity. "
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RBA holds at 1.5 percent at October 2016 meeting

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Market experts and economists widely predicted the outcome of today’s board meeting —to pause the cash rate at 1.5 percent — but investors may lose out if slow rental market growth continues, according to a new survey by finder.com.au.
While all 33 experts and economists from the monthly finder.com.au RBA Survey accurately predicted the cash rate would hold for October 2016, further rate changes will likely be enforced in the coming months. 
One third of experts (11) believe the cash rate will plummet before the year closes out, while 25 percent (8) are forecasting a rate cut in November. Nine percent of experts and economists think the cash rate will fall in December this year. 
A further thirteen economists (39 percent) are predicting a fall within the first six months of 2017, while five (15 percent) are tipping a fall later in the new year. Just nine experts are forecasting a rate rise beyond October 2017. 
The vast majority (69 percent) of experts believe the cash rate won’t fall lower than 1.25 percent this cycle, while seven (24 percent) are expecting it to bottom-out at 1 percent. 
When asked whether home loan providers should start offering competitive, longer term fixed rate mortgages —similar to the 10 and 20-year fixed rate products seen in the United States —over a quarter (27 percent, 7) said lenders should provide longer fixed-term products, with the experts favouring 10 year home loans.
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Graham Cooke, Insights Manager at finder.com.au says many home loan customers value the certainty and security of fixed rate home loans. 
“The ability to lock in a competitive fixed rate for a specified term provides borrowers with the peace of mind in knowing that their repayments will remain unchanged for the duration of the term so they’re protected from interest rate rises,” he says. 
One expert from the finder.com.au RBA Survey —Shane Oliver of AMP —said Australian borrowers have been reluctant to take on short-term fixed rate mortgages in the past. 
“Generally speaking, Australians have been a bit wary of fixed rates even over 3 or 5 years so I suspect there may not be a lot of demand for fixed rate 10 or 20-year mortgages,” he said. 
Additionally, experts offered insight about whether the flat rental market could influence housing prices in Australia, and the implications this may have for investors. Over half (52 percent, 14) of experts believe slow rental market growth could affect housing prices, with many citing falling rental yields as making housing less viable for investors. 
Just five (19 percent) experts believe the housing market won’t be affected by slow growth in the rental market, while the remainder of respondents were indifferent. 
“An increase in housing supply has kept rents down across the country’s capital cities. This could see the housing market become less attractive for investors, but the government’s continued policy of negative gearing could potentially ease this effect by reducing investor risk,” he said. 
Here’s what our experts had to say: 
Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion, Chief Economist (Hold): "We don't think the changing of the guard at the RBA alters in anyway the future path of monetary policy, but the board will be happy to sit tight for now, and monitor incoming data before making a cut in either late 2016 or Q1 2017." 
Shane Oliver, AMP Capital, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist (Hold): 
"Not enough has changed since the last rate cut in August and the RBA is likely waiting until the September quarter CPI release prior to the November meeting before deciding to move again." 
Garry Shilson-Josling, Australian Associated Press, Chief Economist (Hold): "For the RBA, it's a matter of 'so far, so good'. And there [is] obviously increasing scepticism at the RBA of the effectiveness of further cuts: if there's a problem, it's not that interest rates are too high." 
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Darryl Gobbett, Baillieu Holst Ltd, Chief Economist (Hold):"Easing trend still in place with inflation expected to go lower and $A higher than desired but cuts to come in a considered fashion." 
Richard Robinson, BIS Shrapnel Senior, Economic Forecaster (Hold): "No need to cut rates when unemployment rate steady and economic growth currently sufficient to keep it steady. Plus RBA needs to let [the] housing market cool further." 
Michael Blythe, CBA, Chief Economist (Hold): "[The RBA are] waiting for Q3 CPI data at the end of October." 
Savanth Sebastian, CommSec Economist (Hold):"RBA comfortable on the sidelines. Waiting on further data to see how the economy is tracking and also next round of inflation data." 
Dr Andrew Wilson, Domain Group, Chief Economist (Hold):"Wait and see impact following recent cuts – also awaiting September quarter inflation data out next month. Will be also alert to recent sharp house price increases in Sydney and Melbourne." 
Scott Morgan, Greater Bank, CEO (Hold): "Recent RBA commentary suggests that rates will remain low but not necessarily go lower. There is no new data to warrant a further rate cut." 
Mark Brimble, Griffith University, Professor - Finance (Hold): "Bias remains to rate reduction, however the new RBA board will likely want to hold for a few months given the raft of factors in play at the moment." 
Peter Haller, Heritage Bank, Treasurer (Hold):"The RBA will wait to see how the May and August rate cuts will impact on inflation before it considers moving the cash rate again." 
Shane Garrett, Housing Industry Association, Senior Economist (Hold) : "Economic growth is moving in the right direction. The RBA will wait and see how August's rate cut works before another is made." 
Robert Montgomery, Infrastructure Partnerships Australia, Chief Economist &amp; Head of Policy (Hold):"The RBA will hold rates at 1.5% and wait for further signs of change before cutting rates again. The effectiveness of monetary policy to stimulate inflation and broader economic activity is diminishing, so we won't see a rate cut in October, rather we will see growing consensus that the way forward is through fiscal policy measures, such as investment in public infrastructure." 
Michael Witts, ING Bank Treasurer (Hold) :"No significant further information [has been] released to allow the [RBA] to consider a change in the cash rate." 
Alex Joiner, IFM Investors Chief Economist, IFM Investors (Hold) :"There is no catalyst in the data flow domestically or the environment globally that warrants any move." 
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Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons, Managing Director (Hold) : “In the past week alone there’s been reports that the housing market is cooling, and another ranking Sydney among the most at risk globally in terms of a housing bubble. The reality is much less dramatic and we believe leaving interest rates unchanged is the most appropriate course.” 
Lynne Jordan, Liberty, General Manager - Risk (Hold) :"As the RBA holds the official cash rate again this month the public should turn to the government and ask what other form of stimulation can kick start the economy. Whether that is investment in infrastructure, the public sector or incentives for the private sector – the economy needs something more than another rate cut to pick up. Despite the fact that unemployment is at a three year low, and commodity prices are still showing signs of improving, another rate cut will still happen – likely at the start of 2017. " 
Stephen Koukoulas, Market Economics, Managing Director (Hold) :"Rates already stimulatory and recent data have been generally fair. No urgent need to adjust rates." 
Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists, CEO (Hold) : "Interest rates are likely to remain on hold, with our housing markets easing and economic growth remaining in line with expectations." 
Emily Dabbs, Moody's Analytics, Economist (Hold) : "The central bank will likely wait to see how inflation responded to monetary easing earlier in the year before making any decision to ease further." 
Christopher Schade, MyState Bank, Economist (Hold) : "The most likely scenario seems to be one where the RBA remains on hold for at least the remainder of 2016 as it waits for further information around domestic and global developments. The domestic economy is performing in line with expectations, and an anticipated US rate hike in December should help take some heat out of the Australian Dollar. There does not appear to be a compelling reason for further monetary easing at this point." 
Saul Eslake, Economist (Hold) :"RBA is still evaluating the impact of last two rate cuts in May and August." 
Alan Oster, NAB Chief Economist (Hold) :"RBA still looking at the results of recent changes to rates. [The] focus is on low inflation not growth." 
Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer, Editor (Hold) :"There's no prospect the new RBA Governor would make any move at his first meeting in the role." 
Matthew Peter, QIC, Chief Economist (Hold) : "With markets taking the US Fed and Bank of Japan decisions in their stride, the RBA will now remain on hold for the rest of 2016. In the new year, it must weigh up developments in domestic inflation and the exchange in its decision to stay on hold or whether to cut again by 25bps." 
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Noel Whittaker, QUT, Adjunct Professor (Hold) : "The incoming Governor has just stated that dropping rates anymore may be pointless." 
Angus Raine, Raine &amp; Horne, Chairman (Hold) :"[The rate] will most probably lower before Christmas." 
Christine Williams, Smarter Property Investing, Founder (Hold) : "The retail sector has had a boost in spending and the unemployment rate has had a slight reduction." 
Janu Chan, St George Bank, Senior Economist (Hold) : "The RBA has just lowered the cash rate in May and August, and will take a bit more time before moving again. Recent commentary is also suggesting that the RBA is not in a hurry to move rates and it would be likely to wait until key CPI data released in late October." 
Steven Milch, Suncorp Group. Economist (Hold) :"No clear evidence that growth or inflation are undershooting latest RBA forecasts." 
Brian Parker, Sunsuper, Chief Economist (Hold) :"No new news on inflation or wages since last rate cut, and RBA has signalled it's happy with the cash rate where it is." 
Nicki Hutley, Urbis, Director and Chief Economist (Hold) : "The economy is growing at around trend. While inflation is lower than optimal, it is still consistent with a target band of 2% to 3% ‘over time’.” 
Other participants: 
Bill Evans, Chief Economist, Westpac (Hold). 
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No move at October RBA meeting: finder.com.au

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GEUST OBSERVER
When asked whether Australia at risk of running out policy options, the Reserve Bank Governor stated categorically “not at all”.
But the Governor also said that it was “not particularly useful” to keep on cutting interest rates in the hope that it will eventually work to lift growth.  
The Reserve Bank Governor released a number of charts entitled “Major Bank Funding Developments”. The charts help to explain recent interest rate decisions taken by banks on the pricing of assets and liabilities.  
 Governor Lowe says it is “possible” that interest rates could fall further but it will depend on a number of factors such as inflation, the job market, housing and global factors.  Prepared comments  
 Economic assessment: "Overall, the economy is adjusting reasonably well to the unwinding of the biggest mining investment boom in more than a century. This is a significant achievement. We are managing this adjustment partly because of the flexibility of the exchange rate and the flexibility of wages and through the support provided by monetary policy.”  
Income growth: “The story on income growth has been less positive, with growth in nominal GDP being disappointing.”  
 China: faces a “difficult economic transition”. “Overall, the latest available data suggest that there has not been a major interruption to growth, although this is partly because the economy is being supported by fiscal policy, including expenditure on infrastructure.”  
Global monetary policy: “The monetary expansion elsewhere and the low rates on offer overseas have meant that foreign investors have found Australian assets, with their relatively higher returns, attractive. In this way, what is happening elsewhere affects us here in Australia.”
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   Mining: “While mining investment still has some way to fall, our estimate is that around three-quarters of the total decline is now behind us.”</div>
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Non-mining growth: Growth is “fairly widespread”. Reasons for good growth include population growth, the stability of banking system and the remarkable flexibility of our economy.
Lower exchange rate: has boosted growth in tourism as well as led to higher inflows of foreign students. The lower exchange rate has made a “material difference” to inbound and outbound flows of people. A “lower exchange rate would be helpful”. Although it is “understandable” that the Aussie dollar has lifted in recent months.
Employment: The services sector is doing well. Part-time employment is stronger than full-time but that reflects the dependence of services sector on part-time workers. The Governor believes that there is greater “slack” in the job market than indicated by the low jobless rate.
Rate changes by banks: the failure to pass through the last rate cut “wasn’t unexpected”. But the lack of pass- through doesn’t provide extra complications for monetary policy.
The Reserve Bank Governor circulated some charts to explain changes in financial conditions affecting banks such as net interest margin and the return on equity. Banks have had to hold more low yielding assets in recent years. To maintain the return on equity, borrowers have had to absorb more of cost than shareholders.
Infrastructure: The Reserve Bank Governor believes that more could be spent on transport infrastructure in Australian capital cities.
Is the Reserve Bank running out of policy options? “Not at all”. The Reserve Bank Governor said it was very unlikely that we get into a situation of using unconventional monetary policy.
Reserve Bank Governor rejects the notion that Australian living standards have fallen and that inequality has been rising.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The new Reserve Bank Governor has made it clear that interest rates are not on a predefined course. While rates may fall again, a range of factors will be evaluated before that decision is made.  
It is likely that the Reserve Bank Governor will continue to emphasise the limits to monetary policy just as his predecessor did. 
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
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New Reserve Bank Governor sets out his views: CommSec's Craig James

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GUEST OBSERVER
These hearings have become a significant part of our calendar.
They are an important way through which the Reserve Bank is accountable to the public. I, myself, have been attending these hearings for more than a decade in various roles. I look forward now, in my new capacity as Governor, to continuing the tradition of productive engagement between the Committee and the Reserve Bank. You can be assured that I will do my best to answer your questions constructively and I look forward to regular hearings over coming years.
In my opening remarks, I would like to cover three sets of issues. The first is the monetary policy framework. The second is recent economic developments in Australia and elsewhere. And the third is the major projects that the Reserve Bank is currently undertaking.
The Monetary Policy Framework
Earlier this week, the Treasurer and I released an updated Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy. These statements – the first of which was released in 1996 – record the common understanding between the Reserve Bank and the Government on key aspects of Australia's monetary and central banking policy framework. They also set out agreed arrangements that promote the transparency and accountability of the Bank.
Over recent times, there has been quite a lot of public commentary in Australia and elsewhere about monetary policy frameworks. As you would expect, we are always studying the various arguments and have followed the recent debate carefully.
Our view is that a flexible medium-term inflation target remains the right monetary policy framework for Australia. This was reaffirmed in the new Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy, which has also been endorsed by the Reserve Bank Board. The goal remains for CPI inflation to average between 2 and 3 per cent over time.
The current framework was introduced in the early 1990s and has served Australia well. It provides the community with a reasonable degree of certainty about how the average level of prices is likely to change over the medium term. This helps people when making decisions about their savings and investments. Low and stable inflation remains an important precondition for strong and sustainable growth in employment and incomes.
It is worth emphasising that ever since the adoption of the current framework, the Reserve Bank has been a proponent of what is known as flexible inflation targeting. We have not seen our job as always keeping inflation tightly in a narrow range. We have not been what some have called ‘inflation nutters’. We have had a more balanced perspective, recognising that some degree of variability in inflation from year to year is both inevitable and appropriate.
In particular, a flexible medium-term target is the best way for us to deliver low and stable inflation in a way that contributes to our other broad responsibilities, including employment and preserving financial stability. We want to ensure that we deliver an average rate of inflation in Australia of between 2 and 3 per cent over time. It is in the public interest that we do this. It is also in the public interest that we pursue this objective in a way that promotes good employment outcomes for the country and preserves financial stability. In this way, we can best contribute to the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people as required by the Reserve Bank Act.
Our judgement, then, is that a flexible medium-term inflation target remains the right monetary policy framework for Australia. While there are arguments for other types of arrangements, none of them is sufficiently strong to move away from the current framework, which has helped promote stability and confidence in the Australian economy.
So the new Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy represents continuity with the previous Statement. The main drafting change is to make the link between monetary policy and financial stability a little more direct. In the previous Statement, monetary policy and financial stability were dealt with in separate parts of the document. Yet, over the years, financial stability considerations have been a factor in our monetary policy deliberations. Recently, for example, we have considered that a very quick return of inflation to the 2 to 3 per cent range at the cost of a material deterioration in the health of private sector balance sheets was unlikely to be in the public interest. The revised drafting recognises that our inflation target is pursued in the context of the Bank's broader objectives, including financial stability.
Recent Economic Developments
I would now like to turn to the recent economic data.
Our economy continues its transition following the boom in commodity prices and mining investment. According to the latest national account, GDP increased by 3.3 per cent over the year to June. This was a better outcome than was widely expected a year ago. It is also a little above most estimates of trend growth in our economy. Partly reflecting this above-trend growth, the unemployment rate has declined by around ½ percentage point over the past year. Again, this is a better outcome than was thought likely a year ago.
As is always the case, these aggregate outcomes mask significant variation across industries and regions. Those parts of the economy that benefited most from the resources boom are now experiencing difficult conditions, while other areas are doing considerably better. In these other areas, business conditions have improved, employment has increased and there are some signs of a modest pick-up in private investment.
Overall, the economy is adjusting reasonably well to the unwinding of the biggest mining investment boom in more than a century. This is a significant achievement. We are managing this adjustment partly because of the flexibility of the exchange rate and the flexibility of wages and through the support provided by monetary policy.
The story on income growth has been less positive, with growth in nominal GDP being disappointing. Over the past five years, nominal GDP has increased at an average rate of around 3 per cent per year. To put this number in context, between 2000 and 2007, nominal GDP grew at an average rate of 7½ per cent per year. This is quite a change. It goes some way to explaining the sense of disappointment in parts of the community about recent economic outcomes.
The main reason for the weak income growth over recent times is the large fall in the prices received for our exports. Since the September quarter 2011, export prices have fallen by around one-third. This fall, though, does need to be kept in perspective. Export prices remain considerably higher than they were in the 1990s and early 2000s, relative to the price of our imports. And of course, some of the fall in prices is because of increased production from Australia. So while we are receiving lower prices for our exports, we are selling more.
The recent news on commodity prices has been a bit more positive than it has been for a while. Over the past couple of months, the prices of some of our key exports have risen, partly in response to production cutbacks by high-cost producers elsewhere in the world. While it is difficult to predict the future, if these increases were to be sustained then we could look forward to the drag on national income from falling commodity prices coming to an end.
A second factor that has weighed on growth in nominal GDP is the slow rate of wage increases. This is a common experience across most industrialised countries at present, even those with strong employment growth. In Australia, the current rate of wage growth is the slowest in around two decades. It is part of the adjustment following the resources boom. Importantly, it means that many more people have jobs than would otherwise have been the case.
The low wage growth and lower commodity prices have meant that CPI inflation has been quite low over recent times. Inflation has also been held down by increased competition in parts of retailing and cost reductions in some supply chains. Slow growth in rents has also played a role.
The low inflation outcomes have provided scope for monetary policy to provide additional support to demand. The Reserve Bank Board decided to reduce the cash rate by 25 basis points in May and again in August this year. Lending rates have come down as a result. Deposit rates have, of course, also come down. The Board is very conscious that this means lower interest income for savers. Overall though, our judgement is that this easing in monetary policy is supporting jobs and economic activity in Australia, and thus improving the prospects for sustainable growth and inflation outcomes consistent with the medium-term target.
Looking forward, we expect the economy to continue to be supported by low interest rates and the depreciation of the exchange rate since early 2013. Importantly, the drag from the fall in mining investment will also come to an end. While mining investment still has some way to fall, our estimate is that around three-quarters of the total decline is now behind us.
Inflation is expected to remain low for some time, but then to gradually pick up as labour market conditions strengthen further.
One issue that has attracted a lot of attention of late is the housing market. The construction cycle has a bit more momentum than we expected earlier. This is adding to the supply of housing in the country, which partly explains the slow growth in rents. The rate at which established housing prices are increasing has also moderated, although there remain some pockets where prices are increasing briskly. Credit growth and turnover in the housing market are also lower than they were a year ago. Under APRA's guidance, lending standards have also been tightened. Overall, then, the situation is somewhat more comfortable than it was a year ago, although we continue to watch things carefully.
If I could now turn to the international environment.
The overall picture is as it has been for some time. The global economy is continuing to expand, but at a rate a little below average. Growth in global trade and investment is subdued. Inflation is also generally low and below most central bank targets. And interest rates in many countries are still very low.
One issue that continues to attract a lot of attention is the global monetary environment.
As we have talked about on previous occasions, at the global level there has been a very heavy reliance on monetary policy to stimulate growth. Some central banks have taken extraordinary actions, including large-scale money creation and setting negative policy interest rates. This has had global ramifications. While these actions have generally not been taken with the direct intention of influencing exchange rates, they have, inevitably, affected international capital flows and exchange rates. We have seen the effects here in Australia. The monetary expansion elsewhere and the low rates on offer overseas have meant that foreign investors have found Australian assets, with their relatively higher returns, attractive. In this way, what is happening elsewhere affects us here in Australia.
In the past 24 hours, there have been much-anticipated policy meetings by the Bank of Japan and by the Federal Reserve in the United States. These meetings followed a reassessment in markets about the potential for further stimulus from some major central banks, which saw bond yields rise from their historically low levels. In the event, the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve did not make material changes to their policy stances. In both cases, policy remains highly accommodative. The Federal Reserve's statement did note, though, that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate had strengthened.
Another area that continues to be watched closely is the unfolding transition in the economy of our largest trading partner, China.
As we have discussed previously, growth in China has slowed as China too makes a difficult economic transition: in its case, from growth being driven by large investments in industrial capacity and property to a more consumption-focused and service-based economy. China is also dealing with the consequences of a large build-up of debt in the private and state-owned business sectors. Overall, the latest available data suggest that there has not been a major interruption to growth, although this is partly because the economy is being supported by fiscal policy, including expenditure on infrastructure. So the Chinese authorities face a difficult trade-off: measures to address industrial overcapacity and high debt levels are necessary over the longer term, but are not helpful in the short term. We all have a strong interest in them managing this trade-off smoothly.
RBA Projects
Finally, I would like to say a few words about three of the major public-interest projects that the Bank has been working on recently.
You will – I hope – have noticed that a new $5 banknote was issued on 1 September. We are very proud of it. It has innovative security features, including the world's first clear top-to-bottom window. If you have had one in your hands you will have also noticed a tactile feature to assist the vision impaired. We anticipate releasing a new $10 banknote next year and then the banknote in highest circulation – the $50 – after that.
The rationale for introducing new banknotes is that we want to make sure that counterfeiting rates in Australia remain low. Our current banknotes have stood the test of time, but as technology has improved so have counterfeiting capabilities, and there has been some increase in counterfeiting. Our investment in new, high-tech banknotes will help ensure that Australians can continue to have confidence in our banknotes. As part of this project, we are also building a new large vault and a technologically sophisticated, more efficient cash processing facility in Craigieburn in Victoria, as our existing arrangements are running up against capacity constraints.
A second major project is the New Payments Platform. This project has been under the guidance of the Reserve Bank's Payments System Board. It is a cooperative effort between the Bank and the payments industry to modernise key parts of our electronic payments system.
When this work is completed we will all be able to make instantaneous payments to one another, with the money transferring between accounts in a matter of seconds, even if the funds have to move between banks. Addressing will be simplified; an email address or a mobile phone number will be able to be used instead of a payer needing to know an account number and BSB. We will also be able to send a lot more information with payments. The first payments using this new system should be able to be made late next year. As one part of our contribution to this project, the Reserve Bank is building the necessary infrastructure to allow funds to be transferred between financial institutions in real time.
A third major project is the renovation of our banking infrastructure. The Reserve Bank is the main transactional banker for the Australian Government. Like other financial institutions, we need to keep investing in technology so that we can provide a high level of service to our customers. As part of this work, we are developing systems so that the government can use the New Payments Platform to make, and receive, some of its payments.
So it is a busy time at the Reserve Bank.
Further details on these and other projects that we are working on will be available in the Bank's annual report, which will be tabled in parliament and released mid next month.
Philip Lowe is Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. 
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New RBA Governor Philip Lowe's first appearance before the House of Representatives' Standing Committee on Economics

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GUEST OBSERVER
As widely expected following a run of mixed economic data, the US Federal Reserve remained on hold with the Fed Funds rate at 0.25-0.5 percent at its September meeting. 
While the Fed judged that the case for a rate hike has “strengthened” and that the risks to the economic outlook are now “roughly balanced” and there were three dissents in favour a rate hike, the overall impression is that the Fed’s hawkishness is very mild.
It is still waiting for more evidence of progress towards its objectives, Chair Janet Yellen repeated that the Fed can more effectively respond to rising inflation than to falling inflation as a reason to remain cautious, the Fed continues to refer to only “gradual” increases in interest rates and the Fed’s dot plot of Fed meeting participants interest rate expectations continues to decline.
It’s now showing just one hike this year (down from four at the start of the year), only two hikes next year and expectations for the long run natural rate have fallen further to 2.9 percent (from 3 percent in June).
Based on the experience of the last few years it’s understandable that the market is sceptical of Fed rate hike expectations as they have been continuously revised down.
Our base remains for the Fed to hike at its December meeting, but this will require more consistently positive economic data from the US over the next three months. The US money market’s probability of a December hike is 61 percent and this sounds about right.
<a href="/images/2016/09/22/image002.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/22/image002.png" alt="">
Source: US Federal Reserve, AMP Capital
The bottom line is that with US growth running around 2 percent or a bit less and inflationary pressures remaining below target, global risks remaining and the strength in the $US over the last two years and the recent (regulatory driven) rise in US interbank lending rates doing part of the Fed’s job for its, the Fed remains rightly cautious in removing monetary stimulus.
This is likely to remain the case for some time to come.
So for share markets the Fed remains broadly supportive, although volatility will no doubt increase again as we get closer to the December meeting. 
For Australia, the ongoing delays in Fed rate hikes are a mixed bag.
On the one hand a cautious Fed taking account of US and global economic conditions before raising rates is a good thing as it helps sustain global growth and hence demand for Australian exports. But on the other hand the continuous delays in Fed rate hikes are keeping the $A stronger than would otherwise be the case which in turn could dampen the ongoing rebalancing in the Australian economy.
Thanks to the BoJ’s commitment to continue monetary stimulus for a lengthy period and the Fed’s decision to hold, the $A has bounced above $US0.76 again. Ongoing $A strength keeps alive our expectation for another RBA rate cut, even though it’s now a close call thanks to strong Australian economic growth.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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Mixed bag as Fed holds as expected, only mildly hawkish: AMP Capital's Shane Oliver

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The next ‘live’ RBA meeting will be November 1, Bill Evans, Westpac's chief economist suggests.
However he expect rates will be held steady in November as well as October.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on October 4, the first meeting under the new Governor Philip Lowe.
"It is extremely unlikely that there will be any change to rates at that meeting.
"Since the cash rate returned to its historical low of 3 percent in 2013 all six subsequent cuts have occurred at meetings in February, May, August or November when the Bank has a ‘fresh’ print on inflation and is able to communicate any forecast changes in its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy.
"Signs of stability in the real economy point to steady rates being the most appropriate policy.
"Of course there is always the possibility of a shock from the inflation report on October 26 but both our inflation forecasts and our assessment of current high RBA ‘inertia’ around moving again this year point to stability in November," he said.
<a href="/images/2016/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-21%20at%2010.55.55%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-21%20at%2010.55.55%20AM.png" alt="">
 
Evans noted the six month annualised growth rate in the WestpacMelbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose from –0.01 percent in July to +0.20 percent in August.
 
He said the August reading is consistent with a trend that has been building for some months now.
 
"The positive Index growth rate follows 15 consecutive months where growth has been below trend.
 
"It is the first above trend result since early last year and the second strongest since December 2013.
 
"The Leading Index is clearly signalling that the economy is likely to continuing growing around its long run trend rate of about 3 percent a year.
 
"That outlook is consistent with Westpac’s forecast for growth holding steadily around a 3 percent pace over the course of both this year and next."
 
The Leading Index growth rate has lifted sharply over the course of 2016, from a 1.44 percent below trend reading in March to 0.20 percent above trend in August.
 
Almost all components have contributed to the improvement. The biggest lift has come from: commodity prices (+0.64ppts).
 
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