Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Interest Rates

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate at a record low of 1.50 percent for the ninth straight month (eighth meeting).
The Reserve Bank has maintained its “neutral stance” – meaning that rate hikes are as likely as rate cuts in the period ahead.
What does it all mean?
The Reserve Bank Board was seemingly a little downbeat on the economy at the April meeting. Not so at the May meeting.
The Reserve Bank has confirmed that economic growth will strengthen over the next couple of years to above 3 percent – faster than the “speed limit” of just under 3 percent. And inflation will increase as the economy strengthens. In short, don’t expect a cut in official rates.
But while rate cuts are off the agenda, the Reserve Bank is by no means flagging rate hikes. The Reserve Bank Board could have highlighted a lift in “upstream” business inflation, but it stayed silent. So for now the Reserve Bank is happy with where the economy is, and where it is going. 
There also seems a quiet confidence about the outlook for home prices, with the Reserve Bank of the view that the additional supply of apartments coming on stream will rebalance supply with demand in eastern capital cities.
Perspectives on interest rates
The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate at 1.50 percent. The previous move was a rate cut in August 2016 (25 basis points). There have now been 12 rate cuts since November 2011, with the Reserve Bank cutting rates from 4.75 percent to 1.50 percent.
The Reserve Bank had previously lifted rates seven times from October 2009 to November 2010 – a total of 1.75 percentage points, from 3.00 percent to 4.75 percent.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/02/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-03%20at%208.00.11%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/02/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-03%20at%208.00.11%20AM.png" alt="">
What are the implications of today’s decision?
The next move in interest rates is more likely to be a rate hike than a rate cut. But in our view, policy settings are unlikely to change over 2017, so any rate hike is still some way off. The Reserve Bank believes inflation will consolidate in the 2-3 per cent target band. And economic growth is expected to lift over the year.
The forecasts are updated on Friday. Add in the fact that growth rates of home prices are still firm in many capital cities and it is clear that rate cuts are off the agenda.
Then there is the global environment. Global economic growth continues to improve and deflationary risks have receded. The US is lifting interest rates. And there are early signs that the Euro zone will reduce stimulus later this year. So the global environment supports the domestic policy leaning.
The Reserve Bank is expected to maintain its neutral policy stance for now. Inflation is still low, economic indicators are more mixed and the higher Australian dollar is acting as a modest cap on economic growth. 
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx">CommSec</a>.
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cjames-5S2v74qSNK

Reserve Bank expects stronger growth and prices: Craig James

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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5 percent.
Conditions in the housing market continue to vary considerably around the country, the board noted.
"Prices have been rising briskly in some markets and declining in others.
"In the eastern capital cities, a considerable additional supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years.
"Rent increases are the slowest for two decades.
"Growth in housing debt has outpaced the slow growth in household incomes.
"The recently announced supervisory measures should help address the risks associated with high and rising levels of indebtedness."
Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.
Tim Lawless, head of research, CoreLogic said the decision was widely expected. 
"While a broad range of economic factors would have been discussed at the meeting, the housing market would have been front and centre in the conversation," he said.
"Capital city dwelling values have increased by almost 10 percent since the latest round of rate cuts in May and August last year, led by gains of around 13 percent in Sydney and Melbourne. 
"Since the latest round of rate cuts, inflation has edged higher, with headline inflation moving back into the RBA’s target range of 2 percent to 3 percent for the first time since the September 2014 quarter.
"However inflation increases were driven largely by forces that are exogenous to domestic demand, including a 6 percent increase in the price of fuel, and a 2.5 percent administered increase in electricity prices.
"Coupled with continued low wage growth, this indicates that private and household demand may still be weak despite the higher inflation figures, warranting the maintenance of a low cash rate.
"Meanwhile, the surge in housing prices and rebound in investment related credit growth has caused some concern. 
"Importantly, CoreLogic’s home value indices showed capital city dwelling values were virtually flat over the month of April; a stark change from the previously strong growth trend and perhaps hinting that the housing market could be moving through its peak rate of growth. 
"The softer housing market result comes after mortgage rates have been rising since September last year, despite the stable cash rate setting. 
"According to the latest RBA data, the average discounted variable mortgage rate for investor loans has shifted 25 basis points higher since August last year, which is equivalent to a typical RBA rate hike. 
"The three year fixed rate for investor loans is 30 basis points higher and discounted variable rates for owner occupiers have also shifted 10 basis points higher since August. 
"Further rises in mortgage rates are a potential outcome, considering the renewed focus from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) on curbing interest only lending, and maintaining their 10 percent speed limit on investment credit growth.
"With household debt levels at record highs, and the large majority of this debt related to housing, higher mortgage rates have the potential to take some heat out of the market, particularly from the investor segment. 
"A housing market slowdown would relieve one of the key concerns the RBA has relating to financial stability, however the Reserve Bank would likely be seeking confirmation of a slowdown from a longer trend of slower capital gains and lower credit growth."
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Steady for 8th meeting, RBA holds at May 2017 meeting

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Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.
There has been a broad-based pick-up in the global economy since last year. Labour markets have tightened further in many countries and forecasts for global growth have been revised up. Above-trend growth is expected in a number of advanced economies, although uncertainties remain. In China, growth is being supported by increased spending on infrastructure and property construction, with the high level of debt continuing to present a medium-term risk. The improvement in the global economy has contributed to higher commodity prices, which are providing a significant boost to Australia’s national income. Australia’s terms of trade have increased, although some reversal of this is occurring.
Headline inflation rates have moved higher in most countries, partly reflecting the higher commodity prices. Core inflation remains low. Long-term bond yields are higher than last year, although in a historical context they remain low. Interest rates have increased in the United States and there is no longer an expectation of additional monetary easing in other major economies. Financial markets have been functioning effectively.
The Bank’s forecasts for the Australian economy are little changed. Growth is expected to increase gradually over the next couple of years to a little above 3 per cent. The economy is continuing its transition following the end of the mining investment boom, with the drag from the decline in mining investment coming to an end and exports of resources picking up. Growth in consumption is expected to remain moderate and broadly in line with incomes. Non-mining investment remains low as a share of GDP and a stronger pick-up would be welcome.
Indicators of the labour market remain mixed. The unemployment rate has moved a little higher over recent months, but employment growth has been a little stronger. The various forward-looking indicators still point to continued growth in employment over the period ahead. The unemployment rate is expected to decline gradually over time. Wage growth remains slow and this is likely to remain the case for a while yet.
The outlook continues to be supported by the low level of interest rates. Lenders have announced increases in mortgage rates, particularly those paid by investors and on interest-only loans. The depreciation of the exchange rate since 2013 has also assisted the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom. An appreciating exchange rate would complicate this adjustment.
Inflation picked up to above 2 per cent in the March quarter in line with the Bank’s expectations. In underlying terms, inflation is running at around 1¾ per cent, a little higher than last year. A gradual further increase in underlying inflation is expected as the economy strengthens.
Conditions in the housing market continue to vary considerably around the country. Prices have been rising briskly in some markets and declining in others. In the eastern capital cities, a considerable additional supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years. Rent increases are the slowest for two decades. Growth in housing debt has outpaced the slow growth in household incomes. The recently announced supervisory measures should help address the risks associated with high and rising levels of indebtedness.
Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Watch the additional east coast capital city apartment supply: RBA Governor Philip Lowe's May 2017 statement

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Creating more housing could make property more accessible to first home buyers, while the official cash rate is likely to remain unchanged at today's RBA board meeting, according to finder.com.au.  
The survey shows all 34 experts and economists are expecting the Reserve Bank to hold the cash rate at 1.5 percent for May 2017.  
Graham Cooke, Insights Manager at finder.com.au, says despite the survey results, rate changes have not been uncommon at this time of year.  
“In the last seven years, the Reserve Bank has cut rates five times in May. By this time of year, inflation and GDP data is released and the Bank has enough confidence to make a move. However, economists are universal in expecting no movement tomorrow,” he said. 
 "When providing cash rate forecasts, the majority of panelists surveyed (78 percent, 25) expect the next move to be a rise. This is a slightly down compared to last month (86 percent), but it still indicates strong sentiment for a future increase."
<div><button class="_at_6 o365button" type="button"><img src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/K07Klxsp0kNbmbbDThi3IhSWcMPeoAxpR6TDkdNTKTvCpXT19Iean6oJ2RkiUGu-OYVTjIMxuIkKqMPQbFrhnqvEBJwXaD4JFvTHSwYiHsWUejWhAWmUkg_aDhXWWrw_xYYoUyI" alt="rise2.jpg" width="434" height="206"></button></div>
 Of the experts and economists predicting a rate rise, the vast majority (81 percent, 22) believe the rise won’t happen until 2018, with most of this group (15) not expecting a rise until April 2018 at the earliest. Given the current economic climate, panelists were asked if locking in a fixed-rate home loan for the next five years was a good idea. The responses were largely affirmative with 72 percent of respondents indicating it was a good time to fix. Mr Cooke says fixing mortgage rates now could be a wise move. “Fixed home loans provide certainty, and there are some competitive rates available on the market today, despite some lenders <a href="https://www.finder.com.au/home-loan-interest-rate-changes-for-april-2017?utm_source=pr_pressrelease_internal&amp;utm_campaign=4cd5cd00dd-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_28&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_5921dab448-4cd5cd00dd-295349757" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">increasing fixed rates recently</a>.  “The expectation across the board is that rates will rise in the next year, so locking in a low rate now could help you manage your repayments both now and into the future,” he says. Of the minority (7) who believe a rate cut is on the horizon, all bar one economist predict the cash rate will go no lower than 1.0%. The exception is Jordan Eliseo of ABC Bullion who expects an eventual low of 0.75%. With respect to improving housing affordability for first home buyers, creating more supply is the most favoured solution, supported by 97% (29) of the panelists. Mr Cooke says creating more housing should put downward pressure on property prices. “If the government works to establish more housing supply, this could remove heat from the property market as dwelling prices fall. For first home buyers, this could mean that saving for a deposit and committing to a purchase will become more attainable.  “Having said that, the most recent data indicates that growth in values may be slowing in cities such as Sydney, so any new supply will need to be carefully monitored,” he says. Eleven (37%) experts and economists recommended getting rid of or reducing negative gearing, while eight (27%) said eliminating or <a href="https://www.finder.com.au/stamp-duty?utm_source=pr_pressrelease_internal&amp;utm_campaign=4cd5cd00dd-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_28&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_5921dab448-4cd5cd00dd-295349757" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reducing stamp duty</a>could make housing more affordable.  Interestingly, five panelists (17%) cited increasing the first home buyer grant and allowing property purchases through superannuation as measures to improve Australia’s housing affordability issue. Here’s what our experts had to say: Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion (Hold): "The RBA remains in no rush to cut interest rates, despite the fact that most economic data has been soft, and inflation remains well controlled. Financial stability concerns are still a factor, though we remain of the view that there is more downside to come for rates in the next 12 months." Shane Oliver, AMP Capital (Hold): "Worries about excessive home prices and debt growth prevent a cut, but low underlying inflation and wages growth prevent a hike and meanwhile growth is okay." Alison Booth, ANU (Hold): "Key indicators suggest this." John Hewson, ANU (Hold): "[We are] waiting on budget." Darryl Gobbett, Baillieu Holst Ltd (Hold): "The RBA would see Australian inflation as moving in line with its longer term view, particularly with the signs of rising inflation, albeit from a very low base, overseas. In addition, the RBA would still see the potential systemic risks from increased household debt of cutting rates as being higher than any potential benefits." Kishti Sen, BIS Oxford Economics (Hold): "Domestic demand remains weak." Paul Dales, Capital Economics (Hold): "The rise in underlying inflation in the first quarter has reduced the need to cut interest rates further, especially when lower rates would boost the still hot housing market. " Michael Blythe, CBA (Hold): "Low inflation says no need to raise rates. Hot housing markets says don't cut rates." Savanth Sebastian, CommSec (Hold): "The Reserve Bank doesn’t need to cut rates again with inflation trending higher, rather than lower. And there are doubts that rate cuts would actually do much in terms of driving the economy higher and lifting inflation. But similarly rate hikes are off the agenda. Given the slow growth in wages and range-trading in global oil prices, it is unlikely to result in a change to the domestic inflation landscape." Dr Andrew Wilson, Domain Group (Hold): "Although momentum building for a rate cut, no clear case yet. RBA increasingly pincered between its narrative of high house price growth, a clearly weakening economy and independently higher mortgage rates." Saul Eslake, Economist (Hold): "Both current and prospective conditions remain much as they have been at recent meetings - 'underlying' inflation below target but heading in the right direction; unemployment and other indicators of 'spare capacity' in the labour market higher than the RBA wants - so no case for raising rates; but also too much risk of fuelling further house price inflation to warrant cutting rates any further." Mark Brimble, Griffith Uni (Hold): "While broad economic indicators suggest the economy needs further support, the concerns re certain elements of the credit and housing markets is likely to keep the RBA on the bench." Shane Garrett, Housing Industry Association (Hold): "No particular advantage in changing rates one way or the other at this stage." Alex Joiner, IFM Investors (Hold): "No justification to move - inflation data for Q1 was inline with the RBA's forecasts" Michael Witts, ING Bank (Hold): "The broader economy is progressing in line with the RBA's expectations. The recent increases in housing loan rates especially for investors will slow this segment of the market." Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons (Hold): "Again, there are insufficient drivers to force the Reserve Bank to adjust rates at this time. While recent inflation figures appear to suggest the economy is moving in the right direction, concerns around demand for employment remain, and the forthcoming Federal budget is yet to go under analysts' microscopes. Against this background, we believe the prudent course is for the Reserve Bank to hold." Nicholas John Gruen, Lateral Economics (Hold): "They're not sure of what to do." Matthew Tiller, LJ Hooker (Hold): "Despite the recent rise in inflation, ongoing strong property price growth should ensure the RBA holds steady over the short term." Stephen Koukoulas, Market Economics (Hold): "RBA continues to misread inflation, unemployment, wagers and growth. It should cut but it won't." Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists (Hold): "The recently released inflation figures, while moving into the RBA's target range, are on the low side. Until job numbers improve it would be safe to assume the RBA won’t be hiking interest rates to slow the property markets down. On the other hand they can't afford to drop rates and fuel our property markets." Mark Crosby, Monash University (Hold): "The RBA will wait another month or two to evaluate global developments and assess the probability of a new US rate rise before considering raising." Emily Dabbs, Moody's Analytics (Hold): "Inflation pressures are strengthening, full-time employment has improved, and high household debt continues to pose a risk to financial stability" Jessica Darnbrough, Mortgage Choice (Hold): "The latest economic data suggests the Australian economy is tracking along quite nicely at the moment. Inflation has bounced slightly higher, the unemployment rate remains relatively low, and consumer confidence continues to sit around the point where optimists and pessimists are in equal number. With that said, I don't think there is anything out of the ordinary happening at the moment that would force the Reserve Bank to adjust its stance on monetary policy. " Christopher Schade, MyState Bank (Hold): "The hurdle for another cut is high. While inflation remains subdued and the outlook for economic growth over the next couple of years is slightly below trend, interest rate settings in Australia are very accommodative and remain appropriate at their current level. The RBA appears particularly reluctant to deliver further cuts in light of the very buoyant housing market in certain regions." Alan Oster, NAB (Hold): "[The] RBA [is] stuck between cutting for the broader economy and house price pressures" Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer (Hold): "All the numbers are settling into place nicely." Matthew Peter, QIC (Hold): "Housing market risks constrain any attempt to lower the cash rate. Growth and inflation remain tepid constraining any thought of a rate hike." Noel Whittaker, QUT (Hold): "No reason to move either way." Christine Williams, Smarter Property Investing (Hold): "Even though the major banks have chosen to increase, for the most part our resources, unemployment rates and retail sectors have not seen an increase." Steven Milch, Suncorp (Hold): "Growth and inflation [are] gradually firming but not yet warranting higher rates." Brian Parker, Sunsuper (Hold): "Inflation figures provide no great reason for RBA to change their views." Clement Tisdell, UQ-School of Economics (Hold): "No reason to change." Nicki Hutley, Urbis (Hold): "Growth and inflation remain well-behaved" Bill Evans, Westpac (Hold)
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Finder.com.au predict the RBA will hold

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GUEST OBSERVER
Australian inflation is back in the RBA’s target range.
Employment has increased, and so have house and share prices. Internationally, President Trump’s first 100 days in office continue to raise eyebrows and put policy makers and economists on edge.
Domestically, the federal budget takes centre stage. In an attempt to balance all these competing forces, the RBA Shadow Board remains convinced that the cash rate should remain at its current level. It attaches a 57 percent probability that this is the appropriate setting. The confidence attached to a required rate cut equals 3%, while the confidence in a required rate hike equals 40 percent.
Inflation in the March quarter rose to 2.1 percent, back within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s official target range of 2-3 percent.
Worryingly, Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remains at 5.9 percent, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. However, full-time employment rose by nearly 75,000 and the labour force participation rate edged up from 64.56 percent to 64.78 percent.
There is no new data on wages growth, which remains subdued. The Aussie dollar, relative to the US dollar, continues to be range-bound, most recently trading around 75 US¢ mark. Yields on Australian 10-year government bonds dropped slightly, from 2.7 percent to 2.58 percent. Domestic share prices followed global stock markets upward.
International news is dominated by electoral uncertainty and geostrategic posturing. In particular, the sabre-rattling by the leaders of North Korea and US are cause for concern. An intensification of this conflict will likely unsettle global financial markets, with implications for the Australian market also.
Domestically, the housing crisis is attracting increasing attention, with the Treasurer acknowledging that the crisis extends not only to mortgagees but also to renters.
The big unknown is this month’s budget. It will likely include a housing package yet big reforms such as changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions are off the table. The government’s announcement to fast-track last year’s $50 billion infrastructure plan will generate a sizeable fiscal stimulus.
The Shadow Board’s preference to keep the interest rate on hold has strengthened slightly, from 54 percent in April to 57 percent. It attaches an unchanged probability of 3 percent that a rate cut is appropriate and a 40 percent probability (43 percent in April) that a rate rise, to 1.75 percent or higher, is appropriate.
The probabilities at longer horizons are as follows: 6 months out, the estimated probability that the cash rate should remain at 1.50 percent equals 23 percent, three percentage points up from the previous round.
The estimated need for an interest rate decrease has fallen for the second time in a row, from 6 percent to 4 percent, while the probability attached to a required increase equals 73 percent (74 percent in April).
A year out, the Shadow Board members’ confidence that the cash rate should be held steady equals 17 percent (16 percent in the previous month), while the confidence in a required cash rate decrease remains unchanged at 4 percent and in a required cash rate increase dropped 81 percent to 79 percent.
For more information <a href="https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au" target="_blank">click here.</a>
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No need for pre-budget rate change: Shadow RBA

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ANZ bank has reported a $3.4 billion cash profit for the six months to March 31 and lifted interest rates on home loan deals.
The profit figure is down from previous expectations of $3.5 billion.
ANZ's move to lift interest rates on home loan deals follows the Commonwealth Bank and Westpac, who increased interest rates on both owner occupier and investor loans.
Owner occupiers and investors with interest-only fixed rate deals may be hit with increases of 0.4 percent on 2, 4, and 5 year fixed owner occupier interest-only loans the rates will rise on the bank’s Breakfree products.
Three-year owner occupier interest-only loans will rise by 0.3 percent to 4.49 percent.
For investors on a three-year fixed-rate interest-only Breakfree deal the rate will rise 0.3 percent 4.69 percent.
The three-year fixed rate owner occupier principal and interest deal will fall by 0.2 percent to 3.99 percent.
On a three-year fixed rate investor principal and interest deal the rate will fall by 0.1 per cent to 4.44 percent.
Mozo spokeswoman Kirsty Lamont said the increases by ANZ are a result of the financial regulator, the Australian Prudential and Regulation Authority limiting their interest-only lending.
“With the Federal Reserve jacking up rates in the US and inflation just scraping within the Reserve Bank target, we expect a cash rate increase in the next 12 months which means these fixed rates are unlikely to be around for a long time,” she said.
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ANZ six month profit down, lifts some interest rates

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/75859/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Solving the affordable housing crisis is a high priority for state governments around Australia.
This is understandable given the hyper-inflated property markets in many Australian capital cities. Rising concerns that interest rates will increase over coming years also fuel the unaffordability fires.
Proposed solutions to this crisis often focus on opening up new greenfield areas of land in the outer suburbs to develop lower-cost housing. Hence the solution to the affordable housing process is often thought to lie in creating housing with a low purchase price. This approach incentivises developers and housing suppliers to keep the price of new housing stock as low as possible.
This leads to houses that are more costly to own and maintain. Construction savings on features such as insulation, passive solar design, and heating and cooling systems mean such houses have high energy demands. That, in turn, means ongoing living costs such as the cost of air conditioning remain high for the life of the house.
Such houses are also constructed to the minimum standards dictated by the building codes. Poorer design and lower-quality materials can lead to large deferred maintenance costs and lower resilience to natural hazards.
In addition, housing in the outer suburbs has poorer prospects for capital growth, effectively trapping poorer households on the fringes of our cities. The residents of these suburbs also generally face higher transport costs to get to work and services.
Exposed to future risks
We are, in effect, encouraging new home owners to take on larger future risks and costs just so they can buy a house. This keeps government happy by increasing the number of new home owners – a proxy for affordable housing.
But this approach ignores the issue that home owners increasingly cannot afford to continue to own a home, not just buy one.
Increasingly, the first cost-saving action for struggling home owners is to be uninsured or underinsured. About 14% per cent of people have no home or contents insurance whatsoever.
Of those who are insured, many know they are not adequately covered. Back in 2012 it was identified that around one-quarter of home owners and renters had no insurance cover for house contents. Other estimates suggest that nearly one-third of households in Australia remain uninsured. Other studies more recently concluded that 41% of tenants do not have contents insurance.
Events like the recent Cyclone Debbie remind us just how exposed many families are to natural hazards, including physical damage to assets and the associated emotional hardship.
In many cases, families have been financially wiped out as a result of their lack of insurance coverage. These families then go back onto the long waiting list for affordable social housing.
Therefore, by defining affordable housing in terms of only purchase price of housing and number of new home owners, we are dramatically understating the problem of housing affordability.
By facilitating families to invest in houses that require high energy demands to be liveable, and which are located in areas increasingly exposed to natural hazards while households are uninsured or underinsured, we are simply mismanaging the affordable housing challenge.
Reframing affordability
A key action that can be taken is to frame housing affordability in terms of whole-of-ownership-life costs. This means we move away from defining affordable housing in terms of the initial capital cost and instead consider the total cost of owning a house over the term of ownership.
This approach explicitly encapsulates the risks of under-insurance and higher interest rates.
This is the approach used when funding infrastructure and major utilities assets. When planning major infrastructure, cost-benefit analyses must now consider the whole-of-life costs. This is to account for enthusiastic infrastructure advocates deferring costs through to increased maintenance obligations so the capital costs remains low, and hence the project becomes more attractive.
It’s the same for housing development. Therefore, the same approach needs to be adopted for home ownership.
Mark Gibbs is chair, Green Cross Australia, Queensland University of Technology and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mark-gibbs-199704" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Affordable housing is not just about the purchase price

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GUEST OBSERVER
This will be the traditional Board meeting being held one week before the Commonwealth Budget on May 9.
The Board is certain to hold rates steady.
In fact Westpac has argued consistently since May last year that, after an expected cut in August 2016, rates would be held steady for the remainder of 2016 and 2017.
Earlier this year we extended that view with the expectation that the Bank would also hold rates steady through 2018. 
In the minutes to the April Board meeting the Bank surprised somewhat by emphasising the importance of the major competing forces on rates: “The Board judged that developments in the labour and housing markets warranted careful monitoring over coming months.”
Since that statement key news items have been around the employment report and the inflation report.
The employment report for March printed much stronger than expected – 60,900 jobs added including a 74,500 rise in full time jobs. However the unemployment rate remained at 5.9 percent – well above the 5.0 percent level accepted as 'full employment'.
That theme of excess capacity was prominent in the March inflation report. The report was highlighted by falling prices for clothing &amp; footwear; household contents &amp; services; cars; audio visual &amp; computing; and international travel. Underlying inflation rose just 0.4 percent for an annual pace of 1.8 percent.
Overall, while the employment report may have been somewhat welcome to the spectre of spare capacity in the economy weighing on inflation; labour markets and wages would still be a concern for the authorities.
The situation around housing markets is more unclear with uncertainty around the impact of new macro prudential policies – a 30 percent cap on the proportion of new loans that are 'interest only' (currently 62 percent of investor loans and 23 percent of owner occupier loans are interest only).
The last time macro prudential policies were adopted, in 2015, they were very successful in slowing house price growth. These earlier measures included slowing annual growth in investor housing credit to a 10 percent target and were complemented by an effective increase in the mortgage rate of 27bps. Sydney dwelling price inflation slowed from 20 percent to 0 percent (on a 6mth annualised basis) while Melbourne prices slowed from 14 percent to 5 percent. This impact was curtailed by the May and August rate cuts in 2016.
Arguably the Board might regret those cuts given the resurgence in house price growth through the second half of 2016 and 2017.
Our call for steady rates assumes the persistence of the excess capacity in goods; services; and labour markets as exemplified in recent data releases without any threatening collapse in house prices – rather a gradual slow down through the remainder of 2017 and 2018. A sharp retraction along the lines of 2016 is still highly unlikely to draw further rate cuts from the Bank given the experience of 2016/17.
Our major interest will be in the growth and inflation forecasts along with some more colour to the risks.
Key growth forecasts in the February SoMP were: GDP growth in calendar 2017: 2.5 percent -3.5 percent; GDP growth in calendar 2018: 2.75 percent- 3.75 percent.
We believe the Bank will see growth prospects as unchanged since February although there may be a 'one off' adjustment for the impact of cyclone Debbie in the June quarter (some official estimates of a 0.25 percent 'hit' have been mentioned).
Of more importance will be the 3.25 percent (mid- point) forecast for 2018. Westpac is surprised at the Bank's persistent optimism. We expect the housing construction cycle to have clearly 'rolled over' by then with the terms of trade also in retreat. We expect growth in 2018 of around 2.5 percent.
Other factors that are also likely to weigh on growth in 2018 are the impact on business and household balance sheets of high energy prices, and intensifying political uncertainty. A lower AUD will contribute a welcome offset (USD 0.65 'target' in 2018).
The IMF recently released upward revised growth forecasts for Australia – 3 percent in 2017 and 3 percent in 2018 (year average measures). The 2017 forecast is higher than the RBA’s year average forecast of 2.5 percent but we expect the Bank to hold its forecasts steady. 
We do, however, expect that the Government will adopt a higher growth forecast in the May 9 Budget, raising the 2017-18 financial year number from 2.75 percent to 3 percent, in line with the IMF.
Inflation forecasts are also expected to be unchanged: current underlying inflation is running at 1.8 percent annual. RBA forecasts are 1.5-2.5 percent in both 2017 and 2018. These forecasts are 0.5 percent below the target 2-3 percent but not sufficiently awry to demand a policy change, particularly since the forecast to June 2019 indicates a return to the 2-3 percent target band.
Underlying assumptions around the AUD are also unlikely to warrant any forecast changes with the February forecasts using USD 0.76 compared to the likely USD 0.75 in the May forecasts. 
In the February SoMP the discussion on 'housing risks' centred on the downside: "history shows that sentiment can turn quickly.” Of course prices have continued to boom in the interim – we expect ongoing nervousness in the May SoMP emphasising the risks associated with a further intensification of macro prudential controls.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>. 
 
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bevans-rYk9SxEa4r

Expect ongoing emphasis on housing risks: Westpac's BIll Evans

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<div>GUEST OBSERVER</div>
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<div>Australian consumer prices rose by 0.5 percent in the March quarter and annual growth in prices rose to 2.1 percent - a little bit below market expectations (of a 0.6 percent lift over the quarter).</div>
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<div>The groups that recorded the most significant prices rises were as expected – higher fuel and electricity prices, a lift in some broader housing-cost measures and health prices (seasonal impact of changes in the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme). Price falls were based in international holiday travel (a seasonal effect), fruit and furniture (post-Christmas sales).</div>
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<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) underlying  measure of inflation (the average of the trimmed mean and weighted median) which takes out extreme price fluctuations was up by 0.4 percent in the March quarter (also a little below expectations of a 0.5 percent lift) but annual growth lifted to 1.8 percent (from 1.5 percent in the previous quarter). The RBA targets inflation of 2-3 percent over time (see chart below), so the latest upward move in underlying inflation would certainly be welcomed by the central bank given that the RBA rate cuts in 2016 were largely in response to very low inflation readings.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The rise in both headline and underlying inflation are also consistent with the RBA’s own inflation forecasts (which see headline inflation of 2% and underlying inflation of 1.75 percent by the June quarter).</div>
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<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/27/image009.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/04/27/image009.png" alt=""></div>
<div>Source: ABS, AMP Capital</div>
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<div>However, it is noteworthy that outside of volatile items like petrol prices (up 5.7%qoq) and government influenced prices like health (2%qoq), tobacco (+1%qoq), utility charges (up 2.2%qoq) and education (up 3.1%qoq), pricing power in the economy remains very weak. This is evident in prices for “market goods and services excluding volatile items” being flat in the quarter and up just 1% year on year and underlying price weakness in areas like rents (up just 0.1%qoq), clothing (down 1.4%qoq), furnishing and household equipment (down 1%qoq) and holiday travel and accommodation (down 1.9%qoq).</div>
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<div>Implications</div>
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<div>While the March quarter inflation result slightly disappointed expectations, the RBA would be happy that inflation is moving in the right direction (into its 2-3% target band). But, underlying inflation is still too low and will probably remain below the RBA’s target band for the majority of 2017. Wages growth still remains around record lows, the economy is running below-trend which indicates that spare capacity exists and the $A remains too high all which will keep a lid on underlying inflation. </div>
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<div>There are some near-term upward pressures to headline  inflation over the next few months including higher electricity prices and the impacts of Cyclone Debbie in Queensland (which should only add around 0.2 percentage points to headline inflation). But, besides these disruptions, we still see underlying inflation remaining weak for some time. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Our base case is that with inflation moving in the right direction and given the RBA’s increased emphasis on an inflated Sydney and Melbourne housing market and rising household debt the RBA is unlikely to make any adjustments to interest rates any time soon and we expect it to keep the cash rate at 1.50% for the next year at least. However, low underlying inflation pressures mean that there is still more chance of a rate cut this year than a rate hike.</div>
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<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.</div>
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