Developers and apartment buyers have a narrowing window of opportunity before Brisbane's Olympic infrastructure pipeline begins competing directly with residential construction, pushing up costs, tightening labour supply and making new projects increasingly difficult to deliver.

While Brisbane's apartment market continues to benefit from strong population growth and limited housing supply, industry research suggests the years leading up to 2027 could prove to be the most important period for developers looking to secure builders and buyers hoping to purchase before the next wave of price increases.

A new Colliers report, Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games: Creating Solutions, highlights the scale of the challenge. While thousands of new homes are planned across South East Queensland, the Brisbane Olympic Athletes Village alone will deliver more than 10,500 beds during the Games before being converted into around 1,750 to 2,000 apartments. Equivalent to almost two years of typical inner-city apartment supply, the project will also absorb a significant share of the construction workforce and building materials.

The broader construction pipeline paints an even clearer picture.

Construction Skills Queensland's Horizon 2032 report forecasts Queensland's annual construction pipeline will average $69 billion over the coming years before peaking at $75 billion in 2027-28. Demand for construction workers is expected to increase by 17 per cent to almost 150,000 people, with the industry facing an annual shortfall of around 19,000 workers that could blow out to as many as 35,000 during the peak construction period.

The Olympic venues, athletes village and supporting infrastructure will account for billions of dollars worth of work across South East Queensland through to 2032, creating intense competition for labour at a time when Australia's residential construction sector is already under pressure.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=373834]

Colliers Queensland Residential Director Andrew Scriven said the convergence of these projects is creating a clear window of opportunity for both developers and buyers.

"From 2027 onwards, the market will shift dramatically," Scriven said.

"Labour will increasingly be locked into government-led infrastructure and Olympic projects, which means private residential developments will face higher costs and tighter margins. The developers who move now are the ones most likely to get projects off the ground."

Scriven said the same dynamic would also affect buyers, with fewer apartment projects expected to launch once construction capacity tightens.

"If you're looking to change your lifestyle over the next five years, now is your window of opportunity to buy."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150713 project_image_fid=373827]

Developers are already positioning themselves ahead of that window.

Following the success of Monarch at Toowong, Consolidated Properties is preparing to launch two new Brisbane apartment projects in the second half of 2026. They include <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gloriette-30-bedivere-street-yeerongpilly-qld-4105">Gloriette</a> at Yeerongpilly Green, a 25-storey tower within one of Brisbane's key Olympic precincts, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castile-47-skyring-terrace-newstead-qld-4006">Castile</a>, a recently approved 25-storey riverfront development at 47 Skyring Terrace in Newstead.

Hutchinson Builders will deliver both projects, with early works already underway at Yeerongpilly and Newstead expected to commence later this year.

The timing comes as Brisbane's fundamentals continue to strengthen, with strong interstate migration, population growth and vacancy rates remaining below 1.5 per cent.

Colliers Queensland researcher Pragya Sharma said Greater Brisbane is forecast to require around 40,000 new apartments between 2021 and 2031.

"There's a real mismatch emerging between when housing is needed and when it will be feasible to build," Sharma said.

"As a result, the period leading up to 2027 presents a key window of opportunity for developers to secure approvals, funding and construction capacity, while buyers will have greater choice before supply constraints intensify."

Colliers research outlines a critical pre-2027 window to start residential projects before labour squeeze: now is the time to buy

Joel Robinson

Developers, buyers on watch in South East Queensland ahead of construction crunch: Colliers

It's taken less than nine months for developer Sherpa Property Group to sell out all 51 apartments in its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-oasis-palm-beach-7-9-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Oasis</a> development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a>, over a year before its anticipated completion.

&nbsp;

Located at 7-9 Sixth Avenue, the $67 million development has resonated strongly with both local owner-occupiers and downsizers seeking high-quality apartments within walking distance of the beach, dining precincts and everyday amenities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357458]

Christie Leet, Founder of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Group</a>, said the sell-out reflected both the strength of the Palm Beach market and the success of Sherpa's community-first approach to development.

"The sell-out of Oasis is a fantastic outcome and reinforces the strong demand we're seeing for thoughtfully designed apartments in lifestyle locations," Leet said.

"From the outset, our vision was to create a development that genuinely enhanced the Palm Beach community while providing residents with exceptional homes and wellness-focused amenities.

"We've been incredibly encouraged by the level of local support throughout the campaign, 72.5 per cent of buyers are locals, with a significant proportion of purchasers choosing Oasis as their future home rather than an investment."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357463]

Construction is now progressing following development approval, with trusted builder LPS Group delivering the project and completion anticipated in Q3 2027.

Oasis forms part of Sherpa Group's successful Flourish collection, which has become recognised for its focus on wellness, community and elevated coastal living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357469]

Residents will have private access to a rooftop amenity space featuring a pool, gym, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, spa and barbecue facilities.

"The success of Oasis demonstrates that buyers continue to prioritise quality, location and lifestyle," Leet said.

"We are proud to have delivered a project that has resonated so strongly with the market and look forward to bringing Oasis to life for our future residents."

Sherpa recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a>, its third instalment of the Flourish brand in Palm Beach following Flourish Oasis and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151449]

Sherpa sells out Flourish Oasis in booming Palm Beach

Urban Property Group's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-macquarie-park-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a> is leading the next phase of Macquarie Park's residential evolution, with the new apartment development set to become the first of several new apartment projects in the precinct to complete.

The 169-apartment building has now topped out ahead of its scheduled completion in the third quarter of 2026, as new residential investment continues to reshape one of Sydney's largest employment hubs into a true mixed-use precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=368645]

Cox Architecture has designed La Vera to capture the best of its unique positioning on Talavera Road, orienting the building towards Lane Cove National Park.&nbsp;The building features a sculpted northern façade with flowing curves inspired by the surrounding landscape, while its city-facing elevation adopts a more structured architectural expression to maximise skyline views.

"The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park," <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> Director Felipe Miranda said.

"The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=358802]

La Vera offers a diverse mix of one, two, three, and four-bedroom configurations, with prices currently starting from $740,000. Buyers so far have been a mix of Sydney-based investors,&nbsp;metro commuters, owner-occupiers and downsizers from surrounding North Shore suburbs.

Both investors and owner-occupiers have been drawn to La Vera's proximity to Macquarie University, Macquarie University Hospital, Macquarie Centre and the Sydney Metro, infrastructure that supports both strong rental demand and a convenient lifestyle for residents.

The apartments feature full-height glazing, timber flooring throughout living areas, stone kitchen benchtops, SMEG appliances, floor-to-ceiling bathroom tiling and ducted air conditioning.

Residents will have access to a rooftop recreation level featuring a swimming pool, sauna, barbecue facilities and landscaped relaxation areas, complemented by additional communal space at ground level. Many apartments enjoy uninterrupted views across Lane Cove National Park, reinforcing the project's connection to its natural setting.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=364551]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>, a family-owned developer and builder with nearly four decades of experience, holds a 4.5-star iCIRT rating and was Australia's first developer to introduce 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI). La Vera is the first apartment development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/macquarie-park-nsw-2113">Macquarie Park</a> approved to offer the additional insurance protection, alongside a five-year warranty on SMEG appliances.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said the additional protection reflects changing buyer expectations in the off the plan market.

"Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been. Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share," Elias said.

Following completion of the building later this year, buyers will move into their apartments well before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134951]

La Vera closes in on completion as Macquarie Park continues residential transformation

Brisbane developer Red &amp; Co's decision to include dual key apartments in its debut Gold Coast apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/como-varsity-lakes-22-lake-street-varsity-lakes-qld-4227">COMO Varsity Lakes</a>, is proving to be one of the project's biggest drawcards, with buyers quickly snapping up the flexible residences.

More than half of the project's 36 dual key apartments have already sold, helping drive COMO beyond the 50 per cent sold mark within the first month of launch.

The strong response highlights growing demand for apartment designs that can adapt to changing lifestyles, with buyers increasingly looking for homes that accommodate multi-generational living, provide rental income opportunities or simply offer greater flexibility over time.

Located on the shores of Lake Orr, COMO will deliver 156 apartments across 16 levels, with the dual-key residences forming a limited release within the broader development.

Each combines a primary two-bedroom apartment with a fully self-contained studio on a single title, connected by a shared foyer and lockable internal door. The design allows owners to house ageing parents, adult children or guests while maintaining privacy, or lease the secondary residence to generate additional income.

Just 17 of the original 36 dual key apartments remain available.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=367096]

The innovative configuration combines two fully self-contained residences on a single title, typically comprising a primary two-bedroom apartment alongside a separate studio residence, connected via a shared foyer and lockable internal door.&nbsp;

The model is proving particularly attractive to owner occupiers navigating changing family dynamics and the realities of the current housing crisis.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363511]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/npa">NPA</a>&nbsp;CEO Andrew Erwin said dual key living was resonating strongly with modern buyers because it delivered both financial flexibility and practical lifestyle benefits.&nbsp;

“The housing crisis and rising cost of living are fundamentally changing how Australians think about home ownership,” Erwin said.&nbsp;

“Dual key apartments provide a genuine solution for families who want to stay connected while maintaining independence. Parents can help adult children save for a future home, ageing parents can remain nearby without moving into aged care, and owners still retain privacy and flexibility.

“Importantly, buyers are also recognising the financial advantages. It creates the opportunity to generate additional income from part of the home without the holding costs associated with owning a separate investment property.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363509]

Unlike traditional dual occupancy arrangements, the residences operate under a single title, meaning owners only incur one set of body corporate fees, council rates and holding costs.&nbsp;

The secondary residence can also evolve over time - functioning as guest accommodation, a home office, creative studio or private retreat before later becoming an income-producing asset.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/red-co">Red &amp; Co</a>&nbsp;Director and Co-Founder David Laverty said the strong early sales reflected growing buyer urgency and changing priorities within the market.&nbsp;

“Securing more than half of COMO’s residences within such a short timeframe is an outstanding result and a clear endorsement of both the design and location,” Laverty said.&nbsp;

“Buyers are responding to the combination of location, connectivity and amenity, but ultimately it’s value relative to other East Coast markets that is driving enquiry.”&nbsp;

“We’re also seeing strong interest from owner occupiers looking for homes that can adapt with them over time. Flexibility has become one of the most important considerations for buyers in today’s market.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363515]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, COMO features a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom residences with 2.7-metre ceilings and larger-format floorplans aimed at owner occupiers, downsizers and lifestyle-focused buyers.&nbsp;

The development will feature an extensive rooftop recreation and wellness offering including a 25-metre lap pool, sundeck, barbecue and dining areas, gym, sauna, plunge baths, landscaped gardens, wellness spaces and rooftop pickleball and paddleball courts.

The remaining dual key apartments range from 137 sqm to 167 sqm and include generous three-bedroom layouts with separate self-contained studio accommodation and dual parking.&nbsp;

Erwin said the dual key concept represented a broader shift in how Australians would live in the future.

“People want homes that can evolve with their lives,” he said.&nbsp;

“A dual key apartment can suit a family today, support an ageing parent tomorrow, and potentially generate income later on. That adaptability is becoming incredibly valuable in the current environment.”

Prices currently range from $2,115,750 to $2,583,000.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135546]

Inter-generational living drives demand for COMO’s dual key apartments as housing pressures reshape buyer priorities 

Builder-developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ceerose">Ceerose</a> has doubled down on its Leichhardt ambitions, lodging its second State Significant Development Application (SSDA) in the suburb in the last six months.

Their newest proposal seeks to transform a former industrial precinct into a new residential community centred around the adaptive reuse of one of the site's heritage warehouse buildings.

The new project, on a 6,930 sqm block at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/40-76-william-street-leichhardt-nsw-2040">40–76 William Street</a>, will bring more than 200 apartments to a suburb that has seen little to no new supply in recent years. It follows Ceerose's late 2025 SSDA for a mixed-use apartment project on nearby Parramatta Road, signalling the developer's growing investment in Sydney's Inner West.

Ceerose Founder Edward Doueihi told Apartments.com.au the developer’s long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West had given it a strong understanding of how the area has evolved and where its future opportunities lie.

“Ceerose has had a long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West, giving us a unique understanding of the area’s evolution and future potential,” Doueihi said.

“Having delivered projects throughout the region, we have witnessed the suburb’s transformation first-hand and understand the opportunities for its continued growth.”

Doueihi said that understanding also informed the planning process, with a comprehensive Stakeholder Engagement Outcomes Report prepared before the application was lodged.

The report identified the key issues and concerns raised by neighbouring residents and other stakeholders, allowing those matters to be considered and incorporated into the design where appropriate.

He said the delivery of additional housing would also play an important role in supporting the revitalisation of Norton Street and the Italian Forum.

“By increasing the local residential population, the development is expected to strengthen demand for local businesses, encourage further investment, and help restore the vibrancy that made the precinct a thriving destination in the early 2000s.”

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7258c54c-8167-479e-8361-2d5fca9915b4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010B%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%202.jpg?VersionId=S9DQfxu_jpcB5LrAEYFUbyMzg5odW6i5" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, the redevelopment would involve the demolition of four existing industrial buildings while retaining and adaptively reusing the site's most significant warehouse. The retained structure would anchor a new residential precinct comprising five interconnected buildings arranged around a large central landscaped courtyard, with heights stepping from five storeys along the surrounding residential streets to 11 storeys at the William Street corner.

According to the Architecture Design Report by Woods Bagot, the proposal "seeks to create a residential village centred around a generous green heart while celebrating the site's industrial heritage through the adaptive reuse of the existing warehouse building."

The development would comprise 203 apartments, with 188 proposed as build-to-sell residences, alongside 15 affordable housing apartments.

Rather than treating the retained warehouse as a standalone heritage object, Woods Bagot has sought to weave the site's industrial history throughout the masterplan. The proposal retains the north and west facades of the landmark corner warehouse, while new buildings reinterpret the site's brick-and-steel industrial language through their material palette and architectural expression.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9e8c64c2-881b-49e1-8c90-6b6acaaa45b6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010C%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%203.jpg?VersionId=Qm8_8H_Xrg_sc4Mdjc59vlAcKF_5wRTb" />

The design is organised around what Woods Bagot describes as a "green heart", a landscaped communal open space that reinstates the leafy character removed when the site became an industrial storage facility. A new pedestrian laneway running through the site would improve permeability between William, North and Francis streets, linking residents through landscaped public spaces while activating the ground plane.

Residents would have access to communal gardens and shared recreation areas distributed throughout the development. Sustainability has also been prioritised, with the project targeting an average 7.9-star NatHERS rating. Proposed initiatives include rooftop solar generation, rainwater harvesting, passive solar design, naturally ventilated lobbies, extensive cross-ventilation and the reuse of existing building fabric to reduce embodied carbon.

The adaptive reuse strategy became a defining feature of the application after heritage investigations found only one of the site's industrial buildings could feasibly be retained. The Heritage Impact Statement concludes that preserving the key warehouse façades while referencing the site's industrial character throughout the new development provides an appropriate balance between renewal and conservation.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="efffafdb-594f-4e2b-a067-921fd51c05e1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010D%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%204.jpg?VersionId=DPmE4.k16YRt0i27hEZVtJAffarpvUfx" />

"Retention and adaptation of the site buildings has been explored but found not to be feasible except for the tallest building, whose street facades will be retained," the heritage report states.

"The proposed building will interpret the brick and steel character of the subject site, including reuse of some components and construction of a large 'sawtooth' structure in the proposed open space."

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3bfef2b5-83f5-40cd-9cab-767092f34266" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010E%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%205.jpg?VersionId=7asb3i_ql4ybbuJOUb5UHBEIy0Q9t.DF" />

The William Street site is located around 300 metres from Leichhardt North Light Rail station and a short walk to Norton Street's retail, dining and hospitality precinct. The surrounding area has increasingly become a focus for urban renewal given its proximity to public transport and the Parramatta Road corridor.

Doueihi founded Ceerose in 1998 and has grown the business to become one of Sydney's more active apartment developers in recent years, with completed projects including The Alex Collective in Alexandria, Abbie's Lane in Annandale, and the award-winning Munro House in Elizabeth Bay. They are currently delivering Belgravia, 17 luxury apartments in Potts Point.

First look: Ceerose doubles down in Leichhardt with adaptive reuse of former warehouse site

Infrastructure Development

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GUEST OBSERVER
Australian governments have stepped into the market at critical times since the late 19th century to encourage and channel investment in affordable housing. With rising housing stress in Sydney, Melbourne and other areas, the Australian government has now done just that.
On Friday, Assistant Treasurer Michael Sukkar slipped into the National Housing Conference in Sydney to announce a government guarantee on investment in affordable housing.
The announcement went largely unreported, but it was significant. The guarantee is a crucial piece of the affordable housing policy architecture, complementing the “bond aggregator” (or intermediary) mechanism announced in the budget. Treasurer Scott Morrison and Treasury officials have been working on this intermediary, a National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation, over the past 18 months.
These combined measures should create an efficient private investment pathway into social and affordable housing for super funds, insurance companies and other entities hungry for low-risk returns.
The government’s Affordable Housing Working Group outlined this approach, drawing on a number of our reports commissioned through the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI). These assembled powerful evidence from a range of countries of the proven record of government-backed financial intermediaries and debt guarantees in affordable housing finance systems.
Judging from responses to the Treasury consultation paper, the guarantee enjoys strong industry and political support.
This development could also catalyse efforts to build a national housing accord backed by industry, civil society and welfare groups to expand affordable housing for the growing number of Australians in need. A campaign in support of this, Everybody’s Home, was foreshadowed at last week’s conference.
New model based on an old principle
A government guarantee to back bonds issued by the new NHFIC marks a welcome return to the Commonwealth’s former role of actively enabling investment in housing for low and moderate-income households. Historically, this involved reshaping circuits of investment to increase supply, improve quality, deliver better-planned suburbs, ensure returning soldiers were housed, broaden access to home ownership and provide security for households not served by a failing market.
The government support for investment will guarantee access to cost-effective private finance for community housing providers. It will be backed by a secure cash flow from rental income supported by Commonwealth Rent Assistance.
Affordable housing includes not only rental housing geared to income but also below-market-rate rental housing and home ownership. This offers a refuge for households unable to afford housing at market rates.
Coupled with dedicated public funding, the guarantee could turn what has been a trickle of short-term and costly bank debt into a hugely increased flow of longer-term and lower-risk investment.
Why invest in social housing?
Our AHURI-funded international research has found that long-term and patient capital makes an ideal partner for affordable rental housing. Instead of capital gains from sales, the steady cash flows from rent revenue offer secure returns. This is what makes it attractive to pension funds.
Combined with public co-investment and not-for-profit management, secure affordable housing outcomes are more assured.
This investment ultimately saves us all money. Too many Australian households are one step from homelessness, which is devastating for any family. The costs of homelessness to the nation are also huge.
But it’s not just a matter of cost. Homelessness is an affront to the Australian values of compassion and a fair go, often underestimated by political leaders.
Lessons from overseas are clear
The government’s re-engagement with efforts to boost affordable rental housing is in tune with moves in other similar countries.
Just last month Canada released its first national housing strategy, highlighting housing as a human right. The aim is to increase the supply of moderate rent and supportive housing by at least 100,000 homes over 11 years. A National Housing Co-investment Fund will provide A$16.5 billion to repair and expand the affordable housing stock.
Also last month, the UK government announced a new round of debt guarantees for “build to rent” development, alongside A$15.7 billion in direct investment and increased borrowing caps for social housing.
It is true the most effective affordable housing policy levers available to governments are land supply and direct public investment. This was the approach taken in early postwar Australia.
But since the 1990s Australian governments have shown no inclination to re-adopt this model. As an alternative, international best practice combines the most cost-effective long-term investment with strategic public investment in well-regulated not-for-profit landlords.
Finland offers an example. In a country one-fifth the size of Australia, 9,000 social housing dwellings are built each year. This is financed by low-cost government-guaranteed loans via a public intermediary, with interest subsidies and conditional grants to not-for-profit providers.
Finland has the lowest rate of homelessness in Europe. Young Finns leave their parental home and become independent earlier than anywhere else in the European Union. It’s a clever housing system, not based on the luck of the market or family fortune.
Now to tackle the public funding gap
Australian governments have long talked the talk of decent homes for all. But they have struggled to align policy on land development, property taxation and social security accordingly. Our political leaders have simply failed to reform our planning and tax systems to favour affordable housing.
The social housing investment guarantee represents an important return by the Commonwealth to leadership in housing policy and investment. It will bring in a large and willing industry super sector, delivering not only returns for policy holders but also real gains for society at large.
However, enabling more cost-effective private finance can narrow but not eliminate the shortfall in funding for social and affordable housing so that the books balance. As the government’s own advisory body made clear, this policy framework can realise its potential only when government commits the funding needed to bridge this gap.
Julie Lawson, Honorary Associate Professor, RMIT University.
Hal Pawson, Associate Director - City Futures - Urban Policy and Strategy, City Futures Research Centre, Housing Policy and Practice, UNSW.
Vivienne Milligan, Senior Visiting Fellow - City Futures Research Centre, Housing Policy and Practice, UNSW.
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/government-guarantee-opens-investment-highway-to-affordable-housing-88549" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Government guarantee opens investment highway to affordable housing: UNSW

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Large scale infrastructure is inflating activity taking place across the construction industry according to the CoreLogic October Construction Monthly report.  
CoreLogic captured 2,018 development applications and proposals flowing into the construction pipeline across Australia in the month of September.
While 15.4% lower than the number of development applications captured in the previous month, it is above the five year average of 1,775.  
The total value of development applications was $11.2 billion over the month.
Again, this construction value is above the 5 year average of AU$9.3 billion, and was partially driven by the development proposal for a component of the Cross River Rail Line in Brisbane, a project which was first reported by CoreLogic in 2002.  
The Cross River Rail project reached a milestone, following Deputy Premier Jackie Trad's announcement that 5.9 km of tunnelling, four new underground stations and associated work, will be carried out under a pubic private partnership.
(Note: Tenders were called for a $2.5 million tunnel, stations and development package as of the 22nd of September)  
This is the third consecutive month where the value of construction work entering the pipeline has been inflated by a large civil engineering project.
While development applications remain buoyant, CoreLogic captured just 658 projects moving into the construction stages in September. This is far lower than the 5 year average of 1,041 projects per month, and is 27.9% less than moved into construction in the previous month.  
The combined value of projects that moved into construction over September fell by 36.8% on the previous month, to AU$3.5 billion. While all segments outside of commercial building saw a decline, the largest by far was in civil engineering. The value of civil engineering projects commencing was $722 million, down from $1 billion in the previous month.  
While far fewer projects are currently moving into construction, the resilience of the pipeline may see higher levels of construction commencing over the next 6-12 months.
CoreLogic commercial research analyst <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.corelogic.com.au/taxonomy/term/56" target="_blank">Eliza Owen</a>.
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pchatterjee-seVgoiQgz5

Queensland state government joins east coast push for infrastructure 

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Changes to infrastructure charges by the NSW government are expected to be a hurdle for developers planning new projects because of the uncapped nature of the charges. 
The NSW government's changes to Section 94 of the Environmental Planning and Assessment Act, which allows local councils to levy contributions for public amenities and services because of new development, will now be uncapped.
This would mean that feasibility studies of new projects become too uncertain.
At a meeting in Sydney with Minister for Planning and Housing, Anthony Roberts, Urban Development Institute of Australia's NSW chief executive Steve Mann said the uncapped component had already sent reverberations through the development industry, reported The Australian Financial Review.
Mann said its members, including some major developers, had said they were not likely to make any acquisitions until there was more clarity on the infrastructure charges.
"There is now a serious concern about prospective acquisitions," Mann said.
"The uncapping of Section 94 contributions and making more areas liable to pay state infrastructure contributions without any transparency as to what this cost will be, will directly impact on investment confidence," he said.
He drew similarities with the 2003-04 boom when excessive taxation, of up to 50 percent of the value of a home, led to a supply drought.
The way infrastructure charges will be devised is currently being reviewed by the Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal, the AFR reported.
Mann said he suspected this review could take as long as another 12 months, hurting the delivery of affordable housing in the state.
The NSW government will allow councils to borrow more money for infrastructure spending at a reduced interest rate. It will support up to $500 million in additional borrowing by councils by halving the cost of borrowing for eligible projects.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Uncapped infrastructure charges through Section 94 changes could halt property purchases: UDIA

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GUEST OBSERVER
The need for more affordable housing close to public transport and services is acute in Melbourne.
Inner Melbourne has experienced a 74 percent increase in rough sleeping <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/victoria/shocking-record-numbers-of-homeless-people-sleeping-on-melbournes-streets-20160609-gpf1wk">in </a>the past two years. This is perhaps the most visible outcome of the lack of affordable housing options. Only 1 percent of advertised rental properties in the metropolitan area are affordable for households reliant on government assistance.
Buying or renting in the well-serviced inner and middle suburbs is increasingly out of reach for households on low and moderate incomes. A month ago, one of us wrote an article in The Conversation bemoaning the lack of government leadership on this issue. In the 15 months since its election, the Victorian government had not delivered promised revisions to the Plan Melbourne metropolitan strategy or an affordable housing strategy.
What a difference a month makes. It is almost as if some government leaders read the article. Every week (or to be more precise, weekend) since then has delivered a major policy announcement.
Now that Plan Melbourne and Homes For Victorians have been delivered, it is only fair that we provide a preliminary evaluation of how well these strategies meet the housing needs of Victorians on moderate, low and very low incomes.
These documents remain vague about the definition of “affordable housing”. They also do not designate various income groups. We have taken the liberty of defining these groups based on median income brackets.
Moderate-income households
We define moderate income as 80-120% of area median income – about A$68,500-$102,500 a year. In this group, first home buyers appear to be the biggest winners in Plan Melbourne and Homes For Victorians.
The Victorian government will waive stamp duty for first home buyers on homes worth up to $600,000 and taper stamp duty concessions on homes above that price. This is set to cost the government $851 million over four years and save the average buyer $8,000.
However, if previous first home buyer incentives have taught us anything, this is likely to inflate the cost of cheaper dwellings without delivering affordability benefits.
The government is also offering a shared equity program. This allows first home buyers to co-purchase their home with the government. The initiative is intended to support households that qualify for a bank loan but need help saving a deposit. Western Australia has a similar program, which has helped more than 1,500 households buy homes to date.
Low-income households
This group earns 50 percent-80 prcent of area median income, in the range of $42,500-$68,500 a year.
As exciting as the above options are for some first home buyers, they are out of reach for low-income households that earn between $800 and $1,300 per week. These households are unlikely to qualify for social housing but struggle to afford market rent and purchase prices.
This group, which includes many service and trades workers and their families, need a steady stream of new, appropriately sized and affordable market rental options. However, neither the Housing for Victorians nor Plan Melbourne talks specifically about a new scheme to replace the National Rental Affordability Scheme, which the current federal government abandoned in 2013.
It is absolutely true, as the affordable housing strategy states, that federal policies like capital gains tax exemptions and negative gearing favour investors over first-time and other resident homebuyers. However, state government policies can have an impact on scaling up a rental housing market.
In other cities with similar housing affordability crises, such as Vancouver, New York and London, a combination of expedited approvals, development levy abatements, inclusionary zoning and other mechanisms have helped develop new below-market rental units. Located near public transport and services, these are usually provided at particular price points and kept affordable in perpetuity.
Very-low-income households
These households have income of less than 50 percent of the area median, or under $42,500. They are likely to be the primary beneficiaries of significant new social housing funding and development.
The Victorian government has set up a $1 billion fund to support new social housing. The government will work with community housing providers to deliver social housing through new construction and rental subsidies. This is estimated to deliver up to 2,200 new housing units over the next five years.
This funding injection is badly needed: Victoria has the lowest proportion of social housing stock in Australia.
The state government is also increasing funding, or providing new funding, for a Family Violence Housing Blitz, support for transitions out of homelessness, and rooming house renovation.
A new $1 billion loan guarantee fund for social housing providers will be linked to a shared social housing rent registry. This will make life a little easier for the 33,000 households on the public housing waiting list. They currently have to separately register with up to a dozen other community housing providers.
Plan Melbourne has identified a policy direction to use surplus government land to develop social and affordable housing. Launch Housing and VicRoad’s proposal for Ballarat Road in Maribyrnong offer an example of how these partnerships might work. Plan Melbourne also focuses on increasing the supply of social housing through regeneration and intensification of existing public housing sites.
However, the strategy does not recommend a level of social housing as a proportion of total existing and new housing stock. To provide for all households now eligible for social housing, Victoria would require 76,000 more social housing units. By 2051, that figure is projected to increase to 140,000
Furthermore, Plan Melbourne projects a need for 1.6 million new homes in the next 30 years. That’s over 50,000 new homes a year. Of these, 5,000 would be required to meet the needs of low-income seniors, people with intellectual and physical disabilities, female-headed households escaping family violence, and others who simply cannot compete in the private rental market.
Now to make these plans work
 
 
The Andrews government has new housing and planning strategies, but has more to do to ensure they work. Tracey Nearmy/AAP
Plan Melbourne and Homes For Victorians provide several directions that could benefit all Victorians. Welcome aspects include greater emphasis on public transport networks, greater diversity of housing options, 20-minute neighbourhoods and practical mechanisms to get more housing closer to public transport and services.
The plans also make very encouraging noises about strengthening the role of planning in helping to deliver social and affordable housing. This includes overcoming the legislative and definitional barriers to the effectiveness of mechanisms like density bonuses or inclusionary housing.
The continuing lack of formal definition of affordable housing is a fundamental flaw in Victorian affordable housing policy that remains unsolved by Homes For Victorians and Plan Melbourne.
Plan Melbourne and Homes for Victorians together provide some welcome directions towards more well-located and affordable housing. But the previous Victorian planning strategy, Melbourne 2030, foundered in implementation.
Victoria will have to link infrastructure improvements to specific affordable housing targets in well-serviced areas. And the government should continue its work on value capture and development contributions to nail down implementation of its long-awaited affordable housing strategy.
Katrina Raynor is postdoctoral research fellow, Transforming Housing Project, University of Melbourne and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/katrina-raynor-255374" target="_blank">here</a>.
Carolyn Whitzman is professor of Urban Planning, University of Melbourne and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/carolyn-whitzman-9944" target="_blank">here</a>.
Both are authors for The Conversation.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

What a difference a month makes, but Victoria can still do more to get housing and planning right

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Many factors play a part in growth property markets, but the biggest single element is infrastructure.
Good places to invest are places with excellent infrastructure, including the nuts-and-bolts elements such as schools, shops and public transport.
And the markets most likely to grow in future are those where there’s big spending on new infrastructure - with transport facilities the most influential (although medical and educational infrastructure are also big).
Sydney’s recent price boom was created by three key factors - the strongest economy in the nation, pent-up demand after a decade of under-performance, and big, big spending on infrastructure, especially road and rail links.
Sydney’s economy and its property markets turned around when there was a change of state government in 2011.
After more than a decade of stagnation, with little spent on infrastructure, improved governance caused an upturn in the economy and big spending on new projects. Currently there are facilities worth tens of billions of dollars being built, including massive road and rail ventures.
Projects like these create economic activity and jobs, as well as improving accessibility.
One of the factors underpinning the revival in the Tasmanian economy and the rise of the Hobart property market has been a significant rise in spending on infrastructure.
Similar to the NSW experience, the turnaround in Tasmania has evolved from a change in state government, with an emphasis on infrastructure improvements and encouragement of construction projects.
Prices and rents have grown in Hobart on the back of these changes and the Tasmanian capital is expected to be a price growth leader among the capital cities in 2017, boosted by its low prices, tight vacancies and relatively high rental yields.
Against that background it’s good news that road infrastructure, according to a new study, is forecast to be the No.1 growth industry sector in Australia this year.
Research firm IBISWorld sees road infrastructure building as the fastest-growing industry this year, with revenue growth tipped to rise 27.2% to a tick over $20 billion in FY2017 - ahead of the sugar manufacturing and oil/gas extraction sectors.
Several giant transport infrastructure projects are currently driving accelerated expansion in the road &amp; bridge construction industry. “Much of the current robust growth has been due to the early construction phases of the NorthConnex M1 to M2 link and WestConnex projects in Sydney,” it says. “These private-public funded projects are set to dominate the road construction landscape for several years.”
Meanwhile, a report from commercial real estate consultancy Savills says that Australian cities which provide the most efficient transport infrastructure, on top of essential social infrastructure, will place themselves in the best position to deliver sound economic performance.
They will become the preferred home for the best and most skilled workers and the hi-tech industries that employ them over the next decade.
“And those cities will be at the centre of property development and investment opportunities as they grow to accommodate vastly increased populations”, it says.
Savills Australian Head of Research, Tony Crabb, says many academic studies have pointed to the preference among skilled workers for ‘liveability’ over financial rewards including a 2016 Savills UK study What Workers Want, which found workers wanted their life contained within a half-hour radius.
“We expect skilled or knowledge workers to be doubly attracted to places where they can achieve both a high degree of liveability and financial rewards, but transport infrastructure is the critical element with work, rest and play accessible in 30 minutes by car, public transport, walking, or cycling, the key determinant,” he says.
“Major transport infrastructure provides the backbone of investment opportunities and it is generally around such infrastructure that industries agglomerate, but light rail, tram, bus, cycling and street networks are equally important in delivering liveability.”
Other facilities such as medical and educational infrastructure are also vitally important.
Crabb says that while Melbourne and Sydney are likely to attract a growing number of skilled workers with population forecasts of up to 10 million by 2050, two other cities - Adelaide and Perth – were nominated (along with Melbourne) by the London based Economist Intelligence Unit  among the world’s Top 10 most liveable.
Melbourne ranked No.1 on this list ahead of Vienna and Vancouver, with Adelaide No.6 and Perth No.7.
Melbourne and Victoria continue to lead the nation on population growth, with a 2.07% increase in FY2016, ahead of New South Wales with 1.39% and Queensland with 1.35%.
But Melbourne has not delivered house price growth as high as Sydney’s over the past 3-4 years because it has not matched Sydney’s infrastructure spend or its overall economic performance.
Melbourne does, however, have some big-ticket projects in planning, including the Melbourne Metro Rail Project and the North East link road project. Both are expected to cost over $10 billion.
Brisbane has many factors in its favour but spending on infrastructure has largely ground to a halt and economic performance has been lukewarm.
Part of the problem is a state government suffering from paralysis by analysis. It was reported recently that the Queensland Government has initiated 120 reviews and inquiries since winning office in January 2015, with the under Anna Palaszczuk dubbed the “do-nothing Premier”.
What is starkly absent is clear decision-making and, in particular, much-needed spending on infrastructure.
This is hope that this will change. Brisbane is awaiting a start on eight significant projects, which entail investment totalling over $12 billion. They include inner-city rail projects, highway upgrades, big spending at Brisbane Airport and major tourism-focused inner-city developments such as the $3 billion Queens Wharf Casino and the $800 million Brisbane Quarter project.
 Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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