<p>Construction has commenced&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kew-palm-house-bellevue-hill-88-birriga-road-bellevue-hill-nsw-2023">Kew Palm House</a>, marking a significant milestone for the boutique Bellevue Hill apartment project on one of the suburb's best streets.</p>

<p>Developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/kew">KEW</a> recently hosted the traditional ground-breaking ceremony, joined by key project partners, officially turning the soil on what will become one of Bellevue Hill's most impressive new developments in one of&nbsp;Sydney’s most tightly held residential markets.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=133966 project_image_fid=352214]</p>

<p>Set across two low-rise buildings on the dress circle Birriga Road, Kew Palm House will deliver a mix of 16 two-, three-, and four-bedroom residences, including whole-floor homes and penthouses, responding to sustained demand from downsizers and owner-occupiers seeking high-quality apartment living without leaving the suburb.</p>

<p>The project occupies an amalgamated 3,000 sqm site bordering the Royal Sydney Golf Club, a rarity for new apartment development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/bellevue-hill-nsw-2023">Bellevue Hill</a>.</p>

<p>Architecture by Woods Bagot takes a townhome-inspired approach, with finely detailed façades and layered massing designed to sit comfortably within the established streetscape.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=133966 project_image_fid=352216]</p>

<p>The buildings are surrounded by landscaped gardens by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/dangar-barin-smith">Dangar Barin Smith</a>, with communal pathways leading to a pool house and shared alfresco spaces intended to support a quieter, more residential form of apartment living.</p>

<p>Interiors will feature natural materials including travertine, stone and engineered timber, alongside V-ZUG kitchen appliances, with layouts prioritising generous proportions, privacy and indoor-outdoor connection.</p>

<p>Each residence has been designed to maximise natural light while maintaining separation from neighbouring homes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=133966 project_image_fid=352222]</p>

<p>Kew Palm House forms part of KEW’s growing Eastern Suburbs portfolio under the Positive Investment Enterprise group. It follows the completion of Kew Bondi on Bondi Road, with Kew Hillcrest in Rose Bay also currently under construction. Palm House reflects the developer’s longer-term commitment to Bellevue Hill, where opportunities for new, design-led apartment projects remain limited.</p>

<p>Kew Palm House is targeting completion in late 2027, with construction to be delivered by Harvestland Construction. KEW also has Kew Hillcrest in Rose Bay under construction, just five luxury apartments near the beach.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=133966]</p>


Staff Writer

Construction commences at Kew Palm House in Bellevue Hill

<p>Brisbane-based <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/spyre-group">Spyre Group</a> is continuing to bolster its impress SEQ development pipeline with one of its most ambitious projects to date.</p>

<p>The developer, led by Daniel Laruccia and Andrew Malouf, is planning just over 300 apartments across three towers on the prized beachfront side of Main Beach Parade in Main Beach.</p>

<p>The prized 3,344 sqm site at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/3640-main-beach-parade-main-beach-qld-4217">3640-3642 Main Beach Parade</a> also fronts Stafford and Montgomery Avenue and will offer street-level hospitality.</p>

<p><img alt="3640 Main Beach Parade, MAIN BEACH QLD 4217" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="18bfcdb3-b958-4b20-a85b-c61e3dbf81b9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Spyre%20DA%20pers.png?VersionId=QvGNOHg6KDoScJZw2nAkvbun0DT2gUn1" /></p>

<p>The project has been designed by New Zealand-based architecture firm Monk Mackenzie, whose scheme references the fluidity of coastal forces. The smallest tower will be 37 storeys, with the other two topping out at 41 storeys. The sculptural form intends to "resonate with the site's unique peninsular position between the Coral Sea and the Broadwater."</p>

<p>The southernmost tower will have just 59 four-bedroom apartments, above two food and drinks venues. Towers two and three, the tallest, will have 125 two- and three-bedroom apartments in each.</p>

<p>“The towers stand not in opposition to the dynamic coastal landscape, but in dialogue with it,” the architects wrote in their Design Report.</p>

<p>“Like tide posts embedded in sand, they register change. The movements of water, light, air, and human circulation gather and disperse around them”.</p>

<p><img alt="3640 Main Beach Parade, MAIN BEACH QLD 4217" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="cb2f3eb7-c517-47e5-afc8-01685c658a82" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/spyre%20podium.png?VersionId=hYe0w7UBEVNY7LPcoK9PnO9myEGn_xES" /></p>

<p>The podiums of each tower will feature landscaped communal open spaces, pools, and active wellness zones with spas, saunas and gyms with outdoor areas, as well a cinema and dining spaces.</p>

<p>Spyre's application describes the site as “uniquely positioned” to accommodate such scale, noting its separation from other towers, underutilised status, and alignment with the Gold Coast’s Light Rail Urban Renewal overlay. The staging strategy allows the towers to be delivered independently. Before it's amalgamation to make it a larger site, Spyre had approved plans for MARI, a 19-storey building with 15 apartments</p>

<p><img alt="3640 Main Beach Parade, MAIN BEACH QLD 4217" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ef40ca57-1c77-4568-a8aa-91c742334bef" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/spyre%20amenities.png?VersionId=BcaHvU4UeLkabtNlqydmvkuTEyuYmpft" /></p>

<p data-end="365" data-start="88">Spyre’s wide-ranging portfolio includes Watts &amp; Wright in Bulimba, Moray House in New Farm, and ARC Residences in Toowong, all of which are approaching completion. It also includes Hampden Ltd in Melbourne’s Bayside, marking the company’s first project in Victoria’s capital.</p>

<p data-end="629" data-start="372">Spyre has previously achieved significant success on the Gold Coast, setting region-breaking records at Glass House by Spyre in Burleigh Heads, where apartments sold for $24 million and $24.54 million. Cala Dei in Coolangatta also sold out in record time.</p>

<p data-end="726" data-start="636">Spyre will soon launch Echo by Spyre, a boutique development of just nine villas in Tugun.</p>


Joel Robinson

Spyre's three-tower beachfront plans for Main Beach

<p>IPM Property is progressing plans for its third development in Mona Vale in Sydney's Northern Beaches, and its latest will be the biggest yet.</p>

<p>IPM, led by Steven Sroba and Chris Webster, has filed a State Significant Development Application to the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority for 82 apartments on a prime 6,122 sqm site stretching across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/159-167-darley-street-west-mona-vale-nsw-2103">159-167 Darley Street West</a>, opposite Bayview Golf Course and just under 800m from Mona Vale town centre.</p>

<p>They've had <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> draw up the plans for the three-building development which will offer a mix of 26 two-bedroom units and 56 three-beds with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a>.</p>

<p>According to the Design Report by PBD, the built form "responds to the site’s natural fall, solar orientation, and established vegetation, creating a layered architectural expression that balances scale, materiality, and landscape”.</p>

<p><img alt="159-167 Darley Street West, Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="44040ed2-13c6-4f18-8326-a51467cb8532" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Mona%20vale%20pers.png?VersionId=4H1gEiyyCX2yT_fYV6kAdWaaVlCttC6P" /></p>

<p>The proposal aims to maximise passive design outcomes, with the site’s northern orientation supporting solar access and cross-ventilation. Building footprints have been shaped to preserve high-retention trees and accommodate an overland flow path, which runs diagonally through the rear of the site.</p>

<p>The development includes several sustainability initiatives, such as full electrification, EV charging provisions, and generous communal open spaces integrated across the ground and rooftop levels. As outlined in the planning documents, the buildings have been stepped in both plan and elevation to reduce bulk and provide separation to adjacent dwellings, in line with the Apartment Design Guide and local controls.</p>

<p data-end="240" data-start="66">The project site falls just within the 800-metre radius covered by the NSW Government’s Low and Mid-Rise Housing Reforms, which entered their second stage in February 2025. These reforms introduce specific planning controls that significantly increase the potential for medium-density housing growth within 800 metres of the Mona Vale town centre.</p>

<p><img alt="159-167 Darley Street West, Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5df61e6d-0696-4c1e-81c2-8d3535228878" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_9.png?VersionId=vWjI2oCZhAkCPKv4xMEVLdVNkn.keD6_" /></p>

<p data-end="449" data-start="73">IPM has been active in the local market for several years. Its recent projects include Maya on Bungan Street near the town centre, a 33-apartment development completed in late 2024, and Iluka on beachfront Golf Avenue, a boutique project of just 14 apartments. Iluka set a local record in 2021 when a full-floor, three-bedroom apartment sold off the plan for $4.775 million.</p>

<p data-end="727" data-start="456">Nearby in Palm Beach, IPM is also delivering Snappermans, a collection of just five luxury apartments designed by Koichi Takada Architects, located steps from Pittwater. The developer has also recently completed Como Coogee, a 20-apartment development on Carrington Road.</p>


First look: IPM plans third Mona Vale project

<p>With demand for high-quality family homes in the inner west continuing to rise, young families are increasingly turning to new forms of multi-generational living.</p>

<p>At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/ashbury-terraces-ashbury-165-171-milton-street-ashbury-nsw-2193">Ashbury Terraces</a>, Nikki Pham and Danny Lai are among the growing number of residents choosing the precinct for its space, design integrity and strong sense of community.</p>

<p>For Nikki and Danny, purchasing a three-storey terrace was about securing a long-term home for their young family. Having spent most of their lives in the inner west, they first discovered the project while it was under construction.</p>

<p>“We walked past and had a look during the build and instantly felt the vibe. It had everything we were looking for,” said Nikki.</p>

<p>A return to green, open spaces was a major drawcard after living closer to the CBD.</p>

<p>“We like going for walks, and here it feels like a mini oasis while still being central to everything we need,” she said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112253 project_image_fid=354944]</p>

<p>Inside, the couple were immediately drawn to the craftsmanship.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“I love the Calacatta marble and timber detailing. If I’d designed it myself, these are exactly the fittings and fixtures I would have picked,” Nikki said. “There’s actually very little I’d change.</p>

<p>“We’ve found the craftsmanship has been great and I believe the beautiful arches and curves, including on our stunning staircase, are all made by hand.”</p>

<p>Since moving in with their seven-month-old baby in mid-August, the family has been making the most of the amenities, especially the pool.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“We love using the shallow area with the baby. It’s great for kids, and the sunbeds are perfect when it’s not too hot,” Danny said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112253 project_image_fid=354939]</p>

<p>The home features kitchen, living and dining areas on the ground floor with courtyard access to the pool, two bedrooms and a study on the middle level, and a master suite on the top floor. The proximity to local parks, childcare, and schools also made it an easy choice.</p>

<p>Nikki has noticed the project is sparking interest from the extended families of new residents.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Several of our neighbour’s parents have now bought here too. It’s ideal for multi-generational living because everyone has their own space but you’re still close by.”</p>

<h2>A growing trend in the inner west</h2>

<p>Aras Labutis, Head of Urban Transformations at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/coronation-property">Coronation Property</a>, said families like Nikki and Danny’s reflect a broader shift.</p>

<p>“Ashbury Terraces was designed for families at different life stages who want to stay connected to the inner west, including multi-generational households," Labutis said.</p>

<p>"Some terraces even include lifts, which make them ideal for older residents who want to remain independent while living close to children or grandchildren."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112253 project_image_fid=354936]</p>

<p>Recent ABS data shows around one in five Australian households is now multigenerational, following a 22 per cent rise in the five years to 2021.</p>

<p>“The demand we’re seeing aligns with broader national data showing ongoing growth in multi-generational living as families look for practical, long-term solutions in well-connected suburbs.”</p>

<h2>Milton Estate launches as the precinct’s next chapter</h2>

<p>Following this strong response, Coronation is now registering expressions of interest for Milton Estate, the next evolution of the precinct. Strong sales and sustained interest in family-focused inner west homes have underpinned the decision to bring this next stage to market sooner than anticipated.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=112253 project_image_fid=358839]</p>

<p>The new collection continues the same design principles, quality materials, heritage sensitivity and family-focused layouts, and its launch reflects demand from both local buyers and extended families who want to remain part of the growing community at Ashbury Terraces.</p>

<h2>A new neighbourhood taking shape</h2>

<p>Designed by award-winning architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, and brought to life with landscaping by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/360-degrees-landscape">360 Degrees</a>, Ashbury Terraces comprises 136 residences across five low-rise buildings, supported by amenities including a pool, gym and landscaped communal spaces.</p>

<p>For Nikki and Danny, it already feels like a place to grow for years to come.</p>

<p>“We’ve found great childcare nearby, and Ashbury Primary and Trinity Grammar are within easy reach. There are other excellent public and private school options too,” Nikki said.</p>

<p>“It’s hard to find something like this in the Inner West,” she added. “It’s certainly unique in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/ashbury-nsw-2193">Ashbury</a>. We’ve got everything we need here and it already feels like home.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112253]</p>


Ashbury Terraces proves a perfect fit for growing families and multi-generational living

<p>An exclusive collection of luxury Sky Homes featuring sweeping water views, each with their own private rooftop terrace and marina berth, are part of the latest release at Lewis Land’s visionary <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> masterplanned community.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The Sky Homes, which sit within the Signature Collection, have been designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;feature contemporary light-filled coastal interiors, accented by natural textures of timber and stone. The homes range from 282 sqm to 367sqm and offer three bedrooms, three bathrooms, multiple living zones, three car parks, large private balconies, and their own rooftop terraces. &nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=359204]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lewis-land-group">Lewis Land</a> Head of Development Michael Long said the three double-storey Sky Homes occupying the &nbsp;upper levels of The Waterline apartment building formed part of the masterplan’s Signature Collection of &nbsp;luxury residences. &nbsp;</p>

<p>“The exclusive Sky Homes are more than penthouses, they are double-storey homes featuring expansive living spaces and outdoor terraces,” Mr Long said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Located on levels five and six of The Waterline, each Sky Home includes its own private marina berth with direct Broadwater access and carefully curated high-end finishes throughout.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=359206]</p>

<p>The launch of The Signature Collection coincides with the milestone topping out of The Waterline, the first of three residential collections being delivered in the first stage of Harbour Shores.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Residents will also have access to a private pool and other resident-only amenities including a large &nbsp;lagoon pool, social clubhouse, tennis court, gym, yoga and sauna facilities. &nbsp;</p>

<p>Prices for the Sky Homes start from $3.65 million. &nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=290031]</p>

<p>The Signature Collection also features The Residences, an exclusive release of six premium waterfront villas, positioned directly on the 1.2km waterfront boardwalk.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The Residences offer more than 350 sqm of contemporary living with premium finishes throughout and &nbsp;dining spaces that flow seamlessly to the outdoor entertaining area on the ground floor. Each have their own private plunge pool overlooking the water, and a private marina berth.</p>

<p>All villas include two secure car parks and residents have access to the extensive amenities within the broader precinct. Prices start from $3.05 million. &nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=290030]</p>

<p>Harbour Shores is a resort-style community focused on lifestyle and wellness where neighbourhoods &nbsp;are connected by extensive landscaping, green spaces and pedestrian networks, including a 1.2- kilometre waterfront boardwalk.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Boasting a 6 Star Green Star Communities V1.1 rating, the highest level of sustainability of any project &nbsp;on the Gold Coast, Harbour Shores will deliver more than 2,000 homes over the next decade.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Colliers is marketing Harbour Shores, and has seen significant demand from local owner-occupiers.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]</p>


Lewis Land unveils Harbour Shores’ double-storey sky homes with private marina berths

Inflation

<p>Australia&#39;s inflation, a key metric in the RBA&#39;s future interest rate calls, rose 0.6 per cent over the March quarter, according to data released by the ABS.</p>

<p>The consumer price index (CPI)&nbsp;came in materially lower than what was forecasted across markets and broadly in line with the RBA&#39;s below market expectation.</p>

<p>Westpac was forecasting a one per cent lift in the CPI, with AMP Capital forecasting a 0.9 per cent rise.</p>

<p>The RBA&nbsp;say they will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the two to three per cent range.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=27728]</p>

<p>For this to occur, wages growth will have to be materially higher than it is currently, which&nbsp;will require significant gains in employment and a return to a tight labour market, the RBA noted at its April board meeting.</p>

<p>The latest results will unlikely change the RBA&#39;s thinking that rates won&#39;t move until 2024 at the earliest.</p>

<p>CPI was 1.1 per cent up annually, compared to the forecasted 1.4 per cent.</p>

<p>New dwelling prices declined 0.1 per cent over the quarter, namely due to the impact of the Federal Government&#39;s HomeBuilder grant and similar grants by Western Australian and Tasmania state governments.</p>

<p>&quot;Without the offset from these grants, the price of new dwelling would have risen, reflecting increases in materials and labour prices in response to strong demand&quot;, head of prices statistics at the&nbsp;ABS&nbsp;Michelle&nbsp;Marquardt said.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


The consumer price index (CPI) came in materially lower than what was forecasted across markets



RBA unlikely to advance interest rate moves after lower than expected inflation figures

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>

<p>The ABS reported a 0.9% lift in the December quarter CPI which was greater than Westpac’s (and the market median) forecast of 0.7%. At two decimal places the CPI lifted 0.86% with the annual pace lifting a touch from 0.7%yr to 0.9%yr.</p>

<p>The core measures were around expectations with the trimmed mean lifting 0.4%qtr (WBC forecast 0.3%/market median 0.4%) while the weighted median gained 0.5%. Excluding the imputed series had little impact on the core measures.</p>

<p>The CPI is still being influenced by government taxes and subsidies which have been pushing and pulling on the data. However, outside of dwelling prices we found little to suggests more broad based inflationary pressures.</p>

<p>The main surprise compared to our forecast was how the surge in housing demand lifting dwelling prices to swamp the benefit of the Home Builders Grants. In many capital cities developers were able to lift prices in excess of the value of the grants, even in Perth and Hobart were the Federal Grant ($25,000) was supplemented by state government grants ($20,000).  </p>

<p>In our preview we had expected that the know rise in childcare would be offset by falling housing costs but rising underlying dwelling prices swamped the discounts. Prices fell in Sydney (-0.3%), Adelaide (-0.5%), Darwin (-2.3%) and Canberra (-0.5%) but lifted in Melbourne (0.9%), Brisbane (2.0%), Perth (2.2%) and Hobart (1.1%). The large rise in Perth and Hobart is somewhat very surprising given the lower level of house prices in those capital cities and the almost doubling of the size of the grants in those cities.</p>

<p>It is also worth noting that rents rose 0.1%, while modest it was stronger than the expected fall -0.3%. Electricity prices fell -7.5% due to a $600 in WA which saw electricity prices fall -66.7% in Perth.  </p>

<p>There was the expected rise in two key components; the 33.7% lift in childcare and the 10.9% rise in tobacco prices.</p>

<p>The ABS informed us earlier of the magnitude of the rise in child care due to the ending of free child care in Victoria. Overall, household equipment and services rose 3.4% (WBC forecast 3.5%). Excluding child care this group would have fallen -0.7%.</p>

<p>Tobacco prices rise every December quarter due to the re-indexing of the excise to the CPI.</p>

<p>Unlike the NZ CPI it was harder to find any broader inflationary pressures from the COVID induced changes in demand. Holiday travel cost did rise bit more than expected but household contents were close to expectations while clothing fell more than expected.</p>

<p>However, dwelling prices are running well ahead of our expectations and even rents have turned positive. These factors can have a meaningful impact on estimates of core inflation, something we will be looking more deeply at for our monthly update.</p>

<p>Justin Smirk is an economist at Westpac.</p>
</body></html>

The main surprise compared to our forecast was how the surge in housing demand lifting dwelling prices to swamp the benefit of the Home Builders Grants

Q4 CPI above expectations as dwelling prices surge: Westpac

<html><body>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the December 2015 quarter.</p>
<p>The data showed that inflationary pressures remain very low with headline inflation rising 1.7% over the year and core inflation (underlying inflation) increasing by 2.0% over the past year, which is right at the lower end of the Reserve Bank’s (RBA) target range for inflation of 2% to 3%. Of course across most developed nations there are very few inflationary pressures currently despite record low interest rates.</p>
<p>As a follower of the residential housing market I always like to have a look at the impact of inflation on Australian capital city home values by adjusting the CoreLogic RP Data Home Value Index for the impact of inflation. </p>
<p>As you’d expect with inflation so low it is having minimal impact however, over the longer term it has had an impact on the real increase in capital city home values.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/29/Chart-1-2-580x209.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/01/29/Chart-1-2-580x209.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>With nominal home values increasing by 7.8% in 2015 across the combined capitals, when adjusted for inflation growth is somewhat lower at 6.0% over the year.  In terms of the individual capital city performances the four cities which recorded nominal value increases have still seen values rise in real terms albeit the rate of growth is lower.  Alternatively, the cities which recorded value falls have seen larger value falls in real terms.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/29/Chart-2-2-580x206.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/01/29/Chart-2-2-580x206.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The trends across the capital city housing markets have shifted substantially since the financial crisis after home values declined during 2008.  Since the financial crisis home value growth has surged in Sydney and Melbourne, while elsewhere the rate of value growth has generally been comparatively modest. </p>
<p>The chart above shows nominal and real home value changes over the seven years from December 2008 to December 2015.  While Hobart was the only capital city to record a nominal value fall over that time, in real terms values are lower over the past seven years in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth while they have barely moved in Darwin and Canberra.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/29/Chart-3-1-580x210.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/01/29/Chart-3-1-580x210.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>To further highlight the previous point, the above chart shows the change in real home values across each capital city since their previous cyclical peak.  Sydney and Melbourne are the only two capital cities in which home values are higher than their previous peak. </p>
<p>After Sydney home values hit a previous peak in March 2004 they are currently 21.1%, in Melbourne home values peaked in September 2010 and are currently 6.5% higher.  Elsewhere home values are -11.0% lower than the March 2008 peak in Brisbane, -9.8% lower than their June 2010 peak in Adelaide, -13.5% lower than their September 2007 peak in Perth, -21.8%  lower than their December 2007 peak in Hobart, -19.3% lower than their September 2010 peak in Darwin, and -8.5% lower than their June 2010 peak in Canberra. </p>
<p>Despite historic low mortgage rates over recent years, home value growth in real terms over recent years has been soft.</p>
<p>Of course most people don’t think about the ‘real’ growth in home values, we tend to operate in a nominal world.  We see the value of our assets rising and we are generally quite happy with that however, it is important to at times consider the impact of inflation and if our asset values are rising at a faster pace than prices more broadly.</p>
<p>The data shows that even with historic low mortgage rates, real home value growth has failed to show any substantial or sustainable pick-up outside of Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p>This suggests that other economic factors are impacting on demand for housing. Furthermore, the drivers of housing demand in Sydney and Melbourne are somewhat different to the rest of the country. Some suggestions as to what these factors are would be the rise in demand from overseas purchasers, greater demand due to better jobs growth and employment prospects as well as the fact that these cities already have more than 4 million people compared to our next largest city at around 2 million people.</p>
<p>The much higher population results in substantially more housing demand than elsewhere in the country.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Sydney and Melbourne are the only capital cities with any significant increase after inflation: Cameron Kusher

<html><body>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The consumer price index (CPI) for June 2017 was released earlier this week showed that over the quarter headline inflation was recorded at 0.2% which took inflation to just 1.9% over the year to June 2017. </p>
<p>Although annual headline CPI was temporarily within the Reserve Bank (RBA) target range of 2% to 3% over the March 2017, it has been below target for 10 of the past 11 quarters.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/chart-1-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/chart-1-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Adjusting dwelling value growth for inflation provides valuable insight into the housing market’s performance.  With inflation currently at such a low level, adjusting for it is not resulting in any additional capital cities seeing value decline however, over the longer term it does highlight the significant under performance in terms of value growth for certain cities.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/chart-2-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/chart-2-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>While in nominal terms capital city dwelling values declined in 2008 and then again in 2011-12, in real terms the declines were larger over these two periods and values also declined in 2004-05.  In nominal terms, values fell by -6.1% between March and December of 2008 and by -6.4% between September 2010 and June 2012.  In real terms, values fell by -2.6% between March 2004 and December 2005, by -8.3% between March and December 2008 and by -10.8% between September 2010 and December 2012.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/chart-3-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/chart-3-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Since the value declines ceased at the end of 2008, only Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra have actually recorded real growth in dwelling values.  In all other cities, real dwelling values are currently lower than they were at the end of 2008 which is now almost nine years ago.  This data really highlights the uneven nature of growth across the capital city housing markets since the end of the financial crisis. It also shows that low mortgage rates alone are not the driver of the much stronger growth in Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/chart-4-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/chart-4-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The above chart shows the change in real dwelling values across each capital city relative to their most recent market peaks.  The chart again shows that values are only above their previous peak in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra.  Brisbane values are -9.3% lower than their peak in March 2008, Adelaide values peaked in June 2010 and are still -6.3% lower.  In Perth, the market peak was September 2007 and values are still -20.0% off their peak and in Hobart values are -11.2% lower than their peak which occurred in December 2007.  Finally, Darwin has seen the largest fall in real dwelling values, down -26.7% from its peak with the peak having occurred in September 2010.</p>
<p>The regularly reported nominal value data is valuable however, it is important and interesting to consider the impact of inflation on dwelling values from time-to-time.  As the data shows, outside of Sydney and Melbourne and to a lesser degree Canberra, dwelling value growth has been extremely weak for a number of years now.</p>
<p><span><span>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him </span><a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a><span>.</span> </span></p>
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Since 2008, only Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra have seen ‘real’ growth in dwelling values

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<div>Whoa, there! It seems that inflation has disappeared into a puff of dust!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Nothing like an outlying result to shake things up a bit, and today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) or inflation result for the March quarter was an absolute ripper!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Headline inflation printed negative at -0.2 percent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This was miles below expectations and the second weakest reading in nearly two decades, taking the annual result all the way down to 1.3 percent (which is well below the target inflation range to 2 to 3 percent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The falls were broad based, with six out of the eleven CPI groups recording declines.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/28/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/28/A6.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<div>More importantly, the "core" analytical series, which strips out outlying readings, notched an extraordinarily soft set of numbers to take the respective annual readings to a record low. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I've diced the data up below to four decimal places, but all you really need to know is that the incredibly weak trimmed mean (0.2 per cent) and weighted median (0.1 per cent) inflation for the quarter have taken the annual readings down to exceptionally low levels at 1.7 per cent and only 1.4 per cent respectively.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/28/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/28/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Non-tradables inflation, which is taken to be a reasonable proxy for domestic price pressures, fell to its lowest annual reading since some seventeen years ago in June 1999. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/28/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/28/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>In the normal course of things this sort of result would make an interest rate cut a no-brainer.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While markets are suddenly pricing a cut as soon as next week on Budget day as an each-way bet, it would nevertheless still be quite a surprise to see such a change of narrative from the Reserve Bank so soon. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said many analysts will now see June and August as potentially live meetings for rate cuts, which could take the cash rate down to a record low of just 1.50 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Generally it is said that easy monetary policy brings inflation in time, but if a lack of investment is the underlying problem then it is questionable whether more rate cuts alone will bring this to the party.</div>
<p><br><span>Anyway, what a result, and a game-changer, indeed!</span></p>
<div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Rental growth slowest since 1994</span></strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There isn't space here to run through all of the positive (education, medical services, pharmaceuticals) and negative (fuel, transport, holidays) contributors to inflation this quarter in detail, but we can see that rental growth has slowed to its lowest level since 1994. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As you can see depicted in the chart below, the periods when investors were spooked out of the market (1985 to 1987, and 2008) were also precisely the periods when rents spiked.</div>
<div>
<br>Correspondingly the record surge in investor activity since 2012 in response to low interest rates - which Blind Freddy could have predicted - has led to near-record low levels of rental growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Rampant investor lending has now been successfully stymied so equilibrium should return in due course, as the construction boom also passes its peak. It's always interesting and strangely satisfying when markets work just as they should. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/28/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/28/A2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<div>Rents have continued to rise modestly in most cities through this cycle, but Darwin (-4.4 per cent) and Perth (-4.4 per cent) are in significantly negative territory year-on-year. On the other hand rents kept rising in Sydney by another +2.3 per cent over the year to March.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/28/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/28/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Looking instead at annual rental growth we can see how Perth has gone from star pupil straight into detention, and now must work through its elevated vacancy rates before annual rental growth reverts to the mean.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/28/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/28/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Rental growth was also negative in Canberra over the year to March (-0.6 per cent) but looks to be heading back into positive territory in the national's capital, while annual rental growth in Hobart increased to 1.4 per cent in the first quarter.</div>
<p><strong style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<div>Well, well. A stunningly low inflation result which wrong-footed markets and puts interest rate cuts right back into the frame. Game on.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Inflation show stopper: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released quarterly Consumer Price Index data for September 2015. The data showed that headline inflation was recorded at 0.5% for the quarter and was 1.5% higher over the year.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-14.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-14.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>As the above chart shows, at 1.5%, headline inflation is below the Reserve Bank’s target range of between 2.0% and 3.0% per annum.  While the headline figure is important, the RBA also likes to look at measures of underlying inflation which exclude some of the more volatile items.  Both measures of underlying inflation; the trimmed mean and the weighted median were recorded at a lower 0.3% over the quarter and have increased by 2.1% and 2.2% respectively over the past year.  These annual increases place underlying inflation within the lower band of the RBA’s target range, it would also indicate that if the RBA felt it necessary they have scope to reduce official interest rates.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-23.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-23.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>The effects of inflation are also an important factor to consider for housing markets.  Although we generally talk about home value growth in nominal terms, real or inflation-adjusted home value changes are also important to consider.  Over the 12 months to September 2015, combined capital city home values have increased by a nominal rate of 11.0% however, in real terms that figure drops to 9.4%.  The above chart shows the annual rate of value change across the individual capital cities in both nominal and real terms.  It highlights once again the significant difference in value growth conditions in Sydney and Melbourne relative to the other capital cities.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-32.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-32.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>In real terms home values have only increased over the past five years in Sydney and Melbourne.  On a compound annual basis, falls have been recorded at -1.7%pa in Brisbane, -2.0%pa in Adelaide, -1.5%pa in Perth, -3.5%pa in Hobart, -3.9%pa in Darwin and -1.4%pa in Canberra.  Real home values have increased at a rate of 4.9%pa over the past five years in Sydney and 1.7%pa in Melbourne.  Over the past decade, real home values have fallen in Hobart and have risen at a rate of less than 2%pa in Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-4.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-4.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>To further highlight the differences across the cities it is valuable to have a look at nominal and real value growth across the capital cities since 2008.  Between March and December of 2008 combined capital city home values fell by a nominal -6.1% or a real -8.3%.  On the back of aggressive interest rate cuts and stimulus in the form of the Boost to the First Home Owners Grant, values began to rise from that point.  Although combined capital city home values have increased since 2008, this is largely by virtue of strong value growth in Sydney and Melbourne.  In fact, real home values are currently lower in Brisbane (-5.2%), Adelaide (-5.4%), Perth (-3.0%) and Hobart (-16.1%) than they were at the end of 2008, almost eight years of no real value growth in these cities.  Real value rises have been moderate since 2008 in Darwin (5.0%) and Canberra (4.1%) and substantially greater in Sydney (51.4%) and Melbourne (41.9%).</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-5.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The above chart looks at the change in real home values on a quarterly basis since their previous peak.  What is immediately noticeable is that Sydney (+24.3%) and Melbourne (+8.9%) are the only cities in which values are now higher than their previous peaks.  The journey to get back above their peaks was somewhat different, Sydney took 41 quarters to eclipse its March 2004 peak while Melbourne took 19 quarters to eclipse its September 2010 peak.  Across each remaining capital city, real home values are below their previous peaks, the figures for each city are: -11.8% in Brisbane, -10.0% in Adelaide, -13.0% in Perth, -21.3% in Hobart, -17.9% in Darwin and -8.1% in Canberra.  For Brisbane, Perth and Hobart in particular the journey back to the previous peak has proven to be long with these markets previously peaking in March 2008, September 2007 and December 2007 respectively.</p>
<p>As values continue to rise in Sydney and Melbourne and show falls or moderate nominal growth in other capital cities, the affordability gap will continue to widen.  At some point these other capital city markets will once again become attractive to buyers.  Importantly this won’t be driven by affordability factors alone; employment opportunities, amenity and local infrastructure, amongst other factors, will be important factors.  The data also highlights that long periods of value falls do happen in the Australian housing market and clearly housing is not a one-way bet.  The broader statistics do tend to be overshadowed by the impact of the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets who are substantially bigger than all other capital cities.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Real home values remain below previous peak: Cameron Kusher

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<div>Delving into the detail behind the Consumer Price Index figures for the third quarter reveals that annual rental price growth in Australia is now tracking at its lowest level since June 1995, with rents up nationally by just +1.5% over the year to September 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The data series captured at the capital city level shows the cylical nature of property prices and rents.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The national level figures show the marked contrast beteween rental price inflation in periods when investors and housing starts were knocked out of the market (1985-1987) and those where investors have flooded the market with rentals and construction has boomed (2012-date).</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/30/Rents1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/30/Rents1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>Naturally significant variances are evident across the capital cities.</span><br><br><div>Annual rental growth remained steady in Sydney (+2.5 per cent), but was softer in Melbourne (+2.2 per cent) and Brisbane (+1.1 per cent), while Perth has now slipped into negative territory on this series (-1.6 per cent) after a big run-up through the resources boom. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/30/Rents4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/30/Rents4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Looking at the annualised data reveals the softening trend, particularly in Perth.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/30/Rents2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/30/Rents2.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>In the smaller capital cities, Hobart appears likely to play host to a level of rental growth over the year ahead with </span>vacancy rates in the Tasmanian capital having tightened sharply<span>.</span><br><br><span>On the other hand Darwin has the </span>opposite problem<span> and has now sunk into negative territory, joining Canberra where annual rents have been negative since the first quarter of calendar year 2014.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Click to enlarge</span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/30/Rents3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Finally, a look at rental growth across 5 and 10 year time periods by capital city shows how the resources capitals enjoyed the bulk of rental growth until the end of the resources boom.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/30/Rents5.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/30/Rents5.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
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Rental inflation soft: Pete Wargent

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<div>There are two very interesting data releases due out on Tuesday.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Firstly the regional population growth figures, which shed more light on where people have been migrating from and to in Australia, which is always very informative. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And then there is the big one: <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">inflation!</span></strong><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>I <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/01/rate-hikes-are-not-on-cards" target="_blank">looked here</a> at the last round of inflation numbers, released in January. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is clearly going to be a vital data series because it shows whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is on target to get inflation back up to its mandated target. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With housing market activity now easing, it will be very interesting to see whether inflation is still on course to rise towards the target over the next couple of years, or whether there will be further downward pressure on interest rates. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The rhetoric from the RBA has been very clear: it doesn't want to cut rates further under any circumstances, unless it absolutely has to. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the year to December, underlying inflation rose +1.87 per cent, which was yet again under the 2 to 3 per cent target range.<br><br>Very soft inflation has been a feature of the economy since the end of 2015.<br><br>There doesn't seem to be a whole lot of pressure on rents at the moment, which is one contributory factor.<br><br>Some of the sources of the inflation that has been in evidence have been in fuel costs, energy, education, and 'sin taxes' on alcohol and tobacco.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Market forecasts</span></strong><br><br>
</div>
<div>Bloomberg released its survey of 20 economists for the March 2018 quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It showed a market median consensus for a quarterly result of +0.5 per cent, which would put annual underlying inflation at about the same level at +1.85 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, some forecasts see a bit of downside risk, most notably AMP.</div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VdEOo5MB2xY/WtnSxc0xgmI/AAAAAAAApf0/evOQx1tXAzYuYi-6vdRTInHVX4jeP3uvgCLcBGAs/s1600/ABS%2BCPI.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VdEOo5MB2xY/WtnSxc0xgmI/AAAAAAAApf0/evOQx1tXAzYuYi-6vdRTInHVX4jeP3uvgCLcBGAs/s640/ABS%2BCPI.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="408" data-original-width="689"></a></div>
<div>Stay tuned for that, and more analysis here on this blog, from 11.30am on Tuesday.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If you like investment property or continued low mortgage rates, say to yourself a silent prayer for a benign print!</div>
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Inflation data will shape future interest rate direction: Pete Wargent

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<p>The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 1.9 per cent in the June 2020 quarter, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.</p>
<p>"This was the largest quarterly fall in the 72 year history of the CPI,” chief economist for the ABS Bruce Hockman said.<span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<p>The annual inflation rate was -0.3 per cent in the year to the June 2020 quarter.</p>
<p>"Since 1949, this was only the third time annual inflation has been negative. The previous times were in 1962 and 1997-98,” Hockman added.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6401.0Media%20Release1June%202020/%24File/CPI_July_2020.svg" target="_blank"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/7/29/CPI%20image.png" alt=""></a></p>
<p><span>The June quarter fall was mainly the result of free child care (-95 per cent), a significant fall in the price of automotive fuel (-19.3 per cent) and a fall in pre-school and primary education (-16.2 per cent), with free pre-school being provided in NSW, Victoria and Queensland.</span></p>
<p><span>"Excluding these three components, the CPI would have risen 0.1 per cent in the June quarter", Hockman said.</span></p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Consumer Price Index falls 1.9% in June: Australian Bureau of Statistics

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Australians as a whole expect prices to increase by only 3.9% annually over the next two years, according to Roy Morgan surveys conducted in January. This is a slight decrease of 0.1% on December, but down 0.3% on a year ago.</p>
<p>This is the lowest expectation of future price increases to start a year since the series began in 2010 and compares to price expectations of 6.6% annually over the next two years in January 2011.</p>
<p>Comparing price expectations by Federal voting intention shows the highest price expectations are held by those voting for Independents/Others at 4.4% annually over the next two years equal to those who can’t say who they would vote for – also 4.4%.</p>
<p>In terms of supporters of the major parties ALP supporters expect annual price increases of 4.1% over the next two years which is slightly higher than the national average of 3.9% and significantly higher than both L-NP supporters on 3.5% and also Greens supporters on 3.7%.</p>
<p>Roy Morgan’s Inflation Expectations Index measures what Australians believe the future trajectory of prices will be over the next two years. Every Australian brings a unique perspective to the anticipated movement in prices, including which prices are important to them in particular – whether that be food and drink prices, the price at the pump, prices for clothing and footwear, the cost of going to the footy, or prices for financial products, education, housing or transport.</p>
<p>Price expectations in January have dropped to only 3.9% and are now below the record low yearly average of 4% in 2019. Importantly, there are clear differences in perceptions of price increases between supporters of different parties. ALP supporters are the only major party supporters with price expectations above the national average at 4.1% whereas there are significantly lower price expectations for both Greens supporters (3.7%) and L-NP supporters (3.5%) that provide a significant drag on the overall index.</p>
<p><strong>Inflation Expectations by Voting Intention: January 2020</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://meltwater-apps-production.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/images/57312c304f003481ed1f1231/image_4679910221582605124165_1582605127519.png" width="525" height="342" data-imagetype="External"></p>
<p><em>Source: Roy Morgan Single Source: January 2020, n=4,052. Base: Australians 14+.</em></p>
<p>Price expectations again highest in Queensland and Tasmania, lowest in WA and NSW</p>
<p>There are significant regional differences for price expectations over the next two years. Those in both Tasmania (5.4%) and Queensland (4.4%) continue to have far higher price expectations than anywhere else.</p>
<p>Price expectations in South Australia (4.0%) are marginally above the national average whilst they are slightly below the national average in Victoria (3.8%), NSW (3.7%) and WA (3.7%). </p>
<p><strong>Inflation Expectations Index long-term trend – Expected Annual Inflation in next 2 years</strong></p>
<p>Click <a href="https://meltwater-apps-production.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/images/57312c304f003481ed1f1231/image_76785245631582605124167_1582605127842.png">here </a>to enlarge:</p>
<p><img src="https://meltwater-apps-production.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/images/57312c304f003481ed1f1231/image_76785245631582605124167_1582605127842.png" width="690" height="420" data-imagetype="External"></p>
<p><em>Source: Roy Morgan Single Source: Interviews an average of 4,000 Australians per month aged 14+ (Apr. 2010 – Jan. 2020).</em></p>
<p>January Inflation Expectations are based on personal interviews with a nationally representative sample of 4,052 Australians aged 14+. Price expectations in 2019 averaged a record low 4% across the year slightly beneath the previous low of 4.1% averaged throughout 2016 and the mark of 3.9% for January represents the lowest price expectations to start a year since the series began in April 2010.</p>
<p><strong>MICHELE</strong> <strong>LEVINE</strong> <em>is the CEO of Roy Morgan</em></p>
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