<p>Construction is now underway at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/cumulus-grand-villas-carrara-17-baltimore-court-carrara-qld-4211">Cumulus Grand Villas</a> in Carrara, with all stages fully funded as <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/venturecrowd-property-projects">VentureCrowd</a> progresses its 59-residence gated community on an elevated ridgeline overlooking 100 hectares of natural savanna.</p>

<p>The commencement marks a key milestone for the Gold Coast project, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a> and being delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/devcon">Devcon Property Group</a>, at a time when buyers are placing greater emphasis on delivery certainty and builder track record.</p>

<p>With Devcon active in South East Queensland since 1993 and having delivered more than 1,000 homes, the team is positioning Cumulus as a fully financed, under-construction offering in a market where risk mitigation has become a central consideration for off-the-plan purchasers.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360496]</p>

<p>Located at 17 Baltimore Court, Cumulus Grand Villas comprises 59 three- and four-bedroom villas across four collections, Skyline, Canopy, Savanna and Broadview. Pricing starts from $1,455,000, with completion of the first stage targeted for Q4 2026.</p>

<p>Across the four collections, each design represents an expansive and thoughtfully considered offering. The Broadview provides additional flexibility within its floorplan, incorporating a multipurpose room or optional additional bedroom, and is priced from $1,895,000.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Configured across two levels, the four-bedroom villas feature two master bedrooms with private ensuites, as well as a multipurpose room (MPR), supporting intergenerational living, guest accommodation, or the creation of a dedicated retreat space.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360497]</p>

<p>The main living areas are positioned on the ground floor, while the bedrooms are located upstairs, a configuration that promotes both family separation and connected living. All villas include a second master suite on the ground floor, reinforcing the project’s focus on flexibility and long-term adaptability.</p>

<p>That adaptability was central to BDA Architecture’s design approach. The team sought to create a sophisticated, low-maintenance product that makes the most of the site’s elevation and outlook while responding to evolving household needs. Expansive glazing, open-plan interiors and private outdoor areas draw in natural light and frame views towards the savanna, hinterland and Broadbeach skyline.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360470]</p>

<p>VentureCrowd Director of Property David Whitting said the project responds to a growing group of buyers reassessing what premium living on the Gold Coast looks like.</p>

<p>Flexible floorplans have proven particularly relevant for purchasers aged between 40 and 65, including next home buyers, downsizers and investors. The inclusion of dual master suites in the Broadview design, along with options for a downstairs MPR or guest bedroom, allows homes to adapt as family dynamics shift, whether accommodating older parents, adult children, or extended stays.</p>

<p>Across the community, villas are specified with European appliances and premium fixtures and fittings, alongside double garages and landscaped private areas. The gated enclave includes number plate recognition entry, reinforcing a focus on security and exclusivity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360474]</p>

<p>Lifestyle amenity is anchored by the Infinity Terrace, an elevated communal space incorporating a 20m heated pool, alfresco zones and barbecue facilities, designed as a shared retreat within the neighbourhood. A two-acre private nature reserve with walking trails and rehabilitated bushland further integrates the development with its savanna-edge setting, reflecting a broader masterplan initiative to restore native vegetation and habitat corridors.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/carrara-qld-4211">Carrara</a>’s positioning continues to attract attention from prestige buyers seeking proximity to the coast without beachfront pricing. The suburb offers access to major retail centres including Pacific Fair and Robina Town Centre, is around 15 minutes from Broadbeach, and benefits from connectivity via the M1 to Brisbane and the Gold Coast Airport.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135663]</p>


Joel Robinson

VentureCrowd’s Cumulus Grand Villas in Carrara advances with construction underway

<p>Joint venture partners <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/abadeen">Abadeen</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">PERIFA</a> are officially launching the third and final residential stage at their landmark $350 million harbourfront precinct, Putney Wharf, with The Residences representing the final opportunity to secure a new home within this rare waterfront destination.</p>

<p>Strong demand has already been established across the earlier stages of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/putney-wharf-residences-20-waterview-street-putney-nsw-2112">Putney Wharf</a>, with more than 50 per cent sold ahead of this final release. The Residences will introduce a selection of the precinct’s most premium apartments, many of which were deliberately reserved for this concluding stage.</p>

<p>Located at 20 Waterview Street, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/putney-nsw-2112">Putney</a> NSW, the completed precinct will comprise 67 residences, including 18 terraces and 49 apartments, alongside five retail tenancies and a 36-berth marina.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=13962 project_image_fid=1338]</p>

<p>Developed alongside partners Phoenix Property Investors and Mitsubishi Estate Asia, Putney Wharf occupies a prized 300-metre stretch of absolute waterfront and incorporates the historic former Halvorsen’s Boatshed. The precinct connects directly to surrounding parklands via a landscaped foreshore walkway and a large, landscaped podium linking both sides of the development to the adjoining foreshore parklands.</p>

<p>The Residences comprise two newly built, three-storey apartment buildings delivering a boutique collection of 30 generously proportioned waterfront apartments. Designed to capture harbour outlooks, natural light and cooling breezes, The Residences balance architectural refinement with relaxed, low-maintenance living.</p>

<p>Architecturally designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the apartments continue the cohesive design language seen across the broader precinct. A refined palette of light and dark materials, softer-toned stone and neutral, earthy finishes reflect the surrounding landscape and harbour setting. Interiors feature painted timber veneers, tactile joinery, timber flooring to living spaces and 100 per cent natural wool carpets in bedrooms, creating warm and sophisticated homes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=13962 project_image_fid=362525]</p>

<p>Justin Brown, Executive Chairman and Founder of Abadeen, said the release of the final residential stage marks an important milestone for the project.</p>

<p>“Putney Wharf brings together everything we’ve learned over more than 25 years of development,” Mr Brown said. “It respects the site’s extraordinary maritime history while delivering contemporary homes that connect people directly to the harbour.</p>

<p>The Residences offer the rare combination of low-maintenance apartment living, waterfront outlooks with beautiful sunset views, and the convenience of retail and amenity at your doorstep. For boating enthusiasts, the opportunity to secure a private marina berth completes a truly unique Sydney harbourfront lifestyle.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=13962 project_image_fid=291197]</p>

<p>PERIFA Managing Director and Co-Founder Fabrizio Perilli added that the diversity of housing across the precinct has been central to the project’s success.</p>

<p>“Whether it’s the heritage Halvorsen’s apartments, the Waterview Terraces or now The Residences, Putney Wharf offers a range of homes that respond to different lifestyles, all united by an unrivalled harbourfront setting,” Perilli said. “This is a precinct that will add lasting value to the Putney community.”</p>

<p>Managing project marketing and sales, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">SRM Residential</a> Partner Tim Rees said the final release has already attracted strong demand reflecting the project’s unique harbourfront position and the success of earlier stages.</p>

<p>“Following the strong response to both the Halvorsen’s Boatshed residences and the Waterview Terraces, The Residences represent the final chance to secure a new home within this tightly held waterfront precinct,” Rees said. “Buyers are drawn to the rare combination of absolute harbour frontage, parkside living and genuine architectural quality.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=13962 project_image_fid=362240]</p>

<p>Putney Wharf is a one-of-a-kind mixed-use destination, delivering an exclusive residential offering alongside waterfront dining, retail and a 36-berth marina designed to the latest Australian Standards, accommodating vessels up to 18 metres and helping address Sydney Harbour’s ongoing marina shortage.</p>

<p>The precinct will include five retail tenancies and a prominent waterfront jetty area fronting the retail village, creating an activated harbourfront destination for residents and visitors alike.</p>

<p>Residents will enjoy direct access to lush harbourfront parklands, a public foreshore walkway and landscaped podium gardens connecting the development to the surrounding waterfront reserve. Construction across the Putney Wharf precinct is expected to be completed by Q2 2027.</p>

<p>Sales of The Residences officially launch this weekend, with the display suite open Saturday and Sunday from 10am to 12pm at Putney Wharf. Visitors are invited to enjoy a complimentary coffee while touring The Residences and experiencing the Putney Wharf lifestyle firsthand.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=13962]</p>


Final Harbourfront release in Putney Wharf launches this weekend

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/draycon">Draycon Building</a> is nearing completion of Boutique Chevron Island, a 42-apartment development on the northern end of Chevron Island at 17–19 Parneno Street, with a limited-time offer of fully furnished apartments available.</p>

<p>Now more than 90 per cent complete, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/boutique-chevron-island-17-19-parneno-chevron-island-qld-4217">Boutique</a> has been shaped by one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held island addresses, where riverfront outlooks and walkable access to Surfers Paradise converge.</p>

<p>For Draycon Building Managing Director Howard Dabit, the appeal of the site was immediate.</p>

<p>“I knew it was a good site as soon as I saw it,” Dabit said.</p>

<p>“The position and location on the north end of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chevron-island-qld-4217">Chevron Island</a>, the way the river swirls around the site basically from the north to the east, it feels like the site is surrounded by the water. The height that we’ve got and the aspect looking north is beautiful. Eighty per cent of the apartments are looking north so they get that drenching sunlight coming in.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=89709 project_image_fid=360922]</p>

<p>That northern orientation places the development within a stretch of Chevron Island defined by open river aspects and skyline views, while remaining embedded in the suburb’s established village setting.</p>

<p>Chevron Island has increasingly drawn owner-occupiers seeking centrality without the intensity of high-rise beachfront living. Positioned at the geographical centre of the Gold Coast, the island offers direct access to both the beach and key cultural infrastructure while retaining a neighbourhood-scale character.</p>

<p>Connected by bridge to Surfers Paradise, Chevron Island offers walkable access to beaches, riverfront parklands and a revitalised foreshore boulevard animated by walkers and cyclists throughout the day. The Pacific Ocean is only minutes away, reinforcing the suburb’s dual river-and-surf identity.</p>

<p>At the same time, Thomas Drive forms the spine of the island’s village life, delivering cafés, wine bars, casual dining and everyday services within easy reach. Independent grocers, wellness operators and neighbourhood retailers contribute to a community atmosphere that remains distinct from the vertical scale of the beachfront.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=89709 project_image_fid=360915]</p>

<p>In the opposite direction, the Green Bridge links directly to HOTA – Home of the Arts – placing galleries, performance venues and parklands within walking distance. Weekly markets and major exhibitions draw visitors from across the region, while residents return to a quieter residential pocket at day’s end.</p>

<p>Public transport, including nearby bus routes and the G:link light rail corridor along the coastal spine, strengthens connectivity north and south. Griffith University, the Gold Coast University Hospital precinct and established private schools such as The Southport School are all within a short drive.</p>

<p>Ongoing investment across Surfers Paradise, HOTA and the broader Southport corridor has elevated amenity while preserving Chevron Island’s comparatively low-rise residential character. It is this balance, walkable village atmosphere paired with metropolitan-scale infrastructure, that continues to differentiate the suburb from higher-density beachfront precincts.</p>

<p>Boutique comprises just 42 residences, designed to maximise river and skyline outlooks within this tightly held island setting.</p>

<p>Boutique Chevron Island is slated for completion in April 2026, with prices starting from $1,220,000.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=89709]</p>


Draycon Building’s Boutique Chevron Island places 42 residences at the heart of the Gold Coast

<p>Sydney developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/deicorp">Deicorp</a> has secured planning approval for a $300 million residential development in Lindfield, marking the company’s second project on Sydney’s North Shore and its first on the Upper North Shore.</p>

<p>Located on Beaconsfield Parade and designed by DKO Architecture, the state significant development comprises three buildings of up to 10 storeys and will include 399 residences, including 59 affordable homes and 40 adaptable homes.</p>

<p>Residences will range in size from one, two and three bedrooms, with two-bedroom apartments accounting for over 60 per cent of the product make-up. Residents will have access to a broad suite of amenities, including a wellness area, indoor and outdoor recreational spaces, a pool, a gym, a community room and a golf simulator.</p>

<p>In line with Deicorp’s long-standing focus on creating transit-oriented communities, the project is located just 260 metres from the Lindfield Train Station, reinforcing its role in delivering well-connected housing close to established infrastructure, retail and local services.</p>

<p>The inclusion of affordable and adaptable housing supports greater diversity within the local market, while the mix of apartment types responds to demand from downsizers, young professionals and families seeking access to the Upper North Shore.</p>

<p>Deicorp Founder Fouad Deiri OAM said the approval represents an important milestone for both the company and the suburb</p>

<p>“This approval allows us to deliver well-designed homes in a location that is already supported by strong transport and community infrastructure," Deiri said.</p>

<p>"Our focus is on creating places that integrate into their surroundings and provide long-term value for residents, and the broader Lindfield community. Being within walking distance of the station ensures this project supports sustainable growth in the right locations."</p>

<p>Across its portfolio, Deicorp currently has 4,703 apartments under construction, playing a leading role in shaping connected, liveable communities across Sydney.</p>

<p>Its expanding portfolio of Metro-linked developments includes Tallawong Village, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kings-bay-village-five-dock-53-75-queens-road-five-dock-nsw-2046">Kings Bay Village</a> in Five Dock, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/hyde-metropolitan-sydney-133-141-liverpool-street-sydney-nsw-2000">Hyde Metropolitan</a> in Sydney CBD, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/falcon-alexander-crows-nest-8-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Falcon &amp; Alexander</a> in Crows Nest and Showground Village, Castle Hill.</p>

<p>Deicorp purchased the Beaconsfield Paradise site last year. Construction is scheduled to commence in Q2 of 2026 and will be completed in 2029.</p>


Deicorp expands portfolio to nearly 5,000 apartments with Lindfield project

<p>In a joint venture with The Trump Organization, Australia developer Altus Property Group has announced plans to bring a Trump International Hotel &amp; Tower to the Gold Coast, marking the first Trump-branded project in Australia.</p>

<p>"Trump International Hotel &amp; Tower, Gold Coast is our first official project in Australia and reflects our unwavering commitment to delivering world-class luxury experiences in iconic locations around the world," Eric Trump, Executive Vice President of The Trump Organization, said.</p>

<p>"This development exemplifies the Trump brand’s dedication to quality, sophistication, and unmatched service, and we are thrilled to bring this vision to the vibrant Gold Coast community."</p>

<p>The 91-storey building, which will become the tallest in Australia at 335 metres, will feature a&nbsp;285-room luxury hotel bearing the trademark Trump logo. It will also include 272 luxury residential apartments, a three-level podium with an exclusive Beach Club, and over 3,400 sqm of premium commercial, retail, and dining space, revitalizing the central Surfers Paradise precinct.</p>

<p>“Trump International Hotel &amp; Tower, Gold Coast will be a truly unique offering in the Australian market, bringing the prestige and allure of a world-class luxury brand,"&nbsp;Altus founder and chief executive David Young said.</p>

<p>"Altus Property Group is proud of its track record in delivering landmark developments across Australia, and our expertise ensures this project will be an outstanding success."</p>


Trump Hotel heads for the Gold Coast to become Australia's tallest building

Inflation

<p>Australia&#39;s inflation, a key metric in the RBA&#39;s future interest rate calls, rose 0.6 per cent over the March quarter, according to data released by the ABS.</p>

<p>The consumer price index (CPI)&nbsp;came in materially lower than what was forecasted across markets and broadly in line with the RBA&#39;s below market expectation.</p>

<p>Westpac was forecasting a one per cent lift in the CPI, with AMP Capital forecasting a 0.9 per cent rise.</p>

<p>The RBA&nbsp;say they will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the two to three per cent range.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=27728]</p>

<p>For this to occur, wages growth will have to be materially higher than it is currently, which&nbsp;will require significant gains in employment and a return to a tight labour market, the RBA noted at its April board meeting.</p>

<p>The latest results will unlikely change the RBA&#39;s thinking that rates won&#39;t move until 2024 at the earliest.</p>

<p>CPI was 1.1 per cent up annually, compared to the forecasted 1.4 per cent.</p>

<p>New dwelling prices declined 0.1 per cent over the quarter, namely due to the impact of the Federal Government&#39;s HomeBuilder grant and similar grants by Western Australian and Tasmania state governments.</p>

<p>&quot;Without the offset from these grants, the price of new dwelling would have risen, reflecting increases in materials and labour prices in response to strong demand&quot;, head of prices statistics at the&nbsp;ABS&nbsp;Michelle&nbsp;Marquardt said.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


The consumer price index (CPI) came in materially lower than what was forecasted across markets



RBA unlikely to advance interest rate moves after lower than expected inflation figures

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>

<p>The ABS reported a 0.9% lift in the December quarter CPI which was greater than Westpac’s (and the market median) forecast of 0.7%. At two decimal places the CPI lifted 0.86% with the annual pace lifting a touch from 0.7%yr to 0.9%yr.</p>

<p>The core measures were around expectations with the trimmed mean lifting 0.4%qtr (WBC forecast 0.3%/market median 0.4%) while the weighted median gained 0.5%. Excluding the imputed series had little impact on the core measures.</p>

<p>The CPI is still being influenced by government taxes and subsidies which have been pushing and pulling on the data. However, outside of dwelling prices we found little to suggests more broad based inflationary pressures.</p>

<p>The main surprise compared to our forecast was how the surge in housing demand lifting dwelling prices to swamp the benefit of the Home Builders Grants. In many capital cities developers were able to lift prices in excess of the value of the grants, even in Perth and Hobart were the Federal Grant ($25,000) was supplemented by state government grants ($20,000).  </p>

<p>In our preview we had expected that the know rise in childcare would be offset by falling housing costs but rising underlying dwelling prices swamped the discounts. Prices fell in Sydney (-0.3%), Adelaide (-0.5%), Darwin (-2.3%) and Canberra (-0.5%) but lifted in Melbourne (0.9%), Brisbane (2.0%), Perth (2.2%) and Hobart (1.1%). The large rise in Perth and Hobart is somewhat very surprising given the lower level of house prices in those capital cities and the almost doubling of the size of the grants in those cities.</p>

<p>It is also worth noting that rents rose 0.1%, while modest it was stronger than the expected fall -0.3%. Electricity prices fell -7.5% due to a $600 in WA which saw electricity prices fall -66.7% in Perth.  </p>

<p>There was the expected rise in two key components; the 33.7% lift in childcare and the 10.9% rise in tobacco prices.</p>

<p>The ABS informed us earlier of the magnitude of the rise in child care due to the ending of free child care in Victoria. Overall, household equipment and services rose 3.4% (WBC forecast 3.5%). Excluding child care this group would have fallen -0.7%.</p>

<p>Tobacco prices rise every December quarter due to the re-indexing of the excise to the CPI.</p>

<p>Unlike the NZ CPI it was harder to find any broader inflationary pressures from the COVID induced changes in demand. Holiday travel cost did rise bit more than expected but household contents were close to expectations while clothing fell more than expected.</p>

<p>However, dwelling prices are running well ahead of our expectations and even rents have turned positive. These factors can have a meaningful impact on estimates of core inflation, something we will be looking more deeply at for our monthly update.</p>

<p>Justin Smirk is an economist at Westpac.</p>
</body></html>

The main surprise compared to our forecast was how the surge in housing demand lifting dwelling prices to swamp the benefit of the Home Builders Grants

Q4 CPI above expectations as dwelling prices surge: Westpac

<html><body>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the December 2015 quarter.</p>
<p>The data showed that inflationary pressures remain very low with headline inflation rising 1.7% over the year and core inflation (underlying inflation) increasing by 2.0% over the past year, which is right at the lower end of the Reserve Bank’s (RBA) target range for inflation of 2% to 3%. Of course across most developed nations there are very few inflationary pressures currently despite record low interest rates.</p>
<p>As a follower of the residential housing market I always like to have a look at the impact of inflation on Australian capital city home values by adjusting the CoreLogic RP Data Home Value Index for the impact of inflation. </p>
<p>As you’d expect with inflation so low it is having minimal impact however, over the longer term it has had an impact on the real increase in capital city home values.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/29/Chart-1-2-580x209.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/01/29/Chart-1-2-580x209.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>With nominal home values increasing by 7.8% in 2015 across the combined capitals, when adjusted for inflation growth is somewhat lower at 6.0% over the year.  In terms of the individual capital city performances the four cities which recorded nominal value increases have still seen values rise in real terms albeit the rate of growth is lower.  Alternatively, the cities which recorded value falls have seen larger value falls in real terms.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/29/Chart-2-2-580x206.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/01/29/Chart-2-2-580x206.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The trends across the capital city housing markets have shifted substantially since the financial crisis after home values declined during 2008.  Since the financial crisis home value growth has surged in Sydney and Melbourne, while elsewhere the rate of value growth has generally been comparatively modest. </p>
<p>The chart above shows nominal and real home value changes over the seven years from December 2008 to December 2015.  While Hobart was the only capital city to record a nominal value fall over that time, in real terms values are lower over the past seven years in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth while they have barely moved in Darwin and Canberra.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/29/Chart-3-1-580x210.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/01/29/Chart-3-1-580x210.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>To further highlight the previous point, the above chart shows the change in real home values across each capital city since their previous cyclical peak.  Sydney and Melbourne are the only two capital cities in which home values are higher than their previous peak. </p>
<p>After Sydney home values hit a previous peak in March 2004 they are currently 21.1%, in Melbourne home values peaked in September 2010 and are currently 6.5% higher.  Elsewhere home values are -11.0% lower than the March 2008 peak in Brisbane, -9.8% lower than their June 2010 peak in Adelaide, -13.5% lower than their September 2007 peak in Perth, -21.8%  lower than their December 2007 peak in Hobart, -19.3% lower than their September 2010 peak in Darwin, and -8.5% lower than their June 2010 peak in Canberra. </p>
<p>Despite historic low mortgage rates over recent years, home value growth in real terms over recent years has been soft.</p>
<p>Of course most people don’t think about the ‘real’ growth in home values, we tend to operate in a nominal world.  We see the value of our assets rising and we are generally quite happy with that however, it is important to at times consider the impact of inflation and if our asset values are rising at a faster pace than prices more broadly.</p>
<p>The data shows that even with historic low mortgage rates, real home value growth has failed to show any substantial or sustainable pick-up outside of Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p>This suggests that other economic factors are impacting on demand for housing. Furthermore, the drivers of housing demand in Sydney and Melbourne are somewhat different to the rest of the country. Some suggestions as to what these factors are would be the rise in demand from overseas purchasers, greater demand due to better jobs growth and employment prospects as well as the fact that these cities already have more than 4 million people compared to our next largest city at around 2 million people.</p>
<p>The much higher population results in substantially more housing demand than elsewhere in the country.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Sydney and Melbourne are the only capital cities with any significant increase after inflation: Cameron Kusher

<html><body>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The consumer price index (CPI) for June 2017 was released earlier this week showed that over the quarter headline inflation was recorded at 0.2% which took inflation to just 1.9% over the year to June 2017. </p>
<p>Although annual headline CPI was temporarily within the Reserve Bank (RBA) target range of 2% to 3% over the March 2017, it has been below target for 10 of the past 11 quarters.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/chart-1-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/chart-1-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Adjusting dwelling value growth for inflation provides valuable insight into the housing market’s performance.  With inflation currently at such a low level, adjusting for it is not resulting in any additional capital cities seeing value decline however, over the longer term it does highlight the significant under performance in terms of value growth for certain cities.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/chart-2-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/chart-2-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>While in nominal terms capital city dwelling values declined in 2008 and then again in 2011-12, in real terms the declines were larger over these two periods and values also declined in 2004-05.  In nominal terms, values fell by -6.1% between March and December of 2008 and by -6.4% between September 2010 and June 2012.  In real terms, values fell by -2.6% between March 2004 and December 2005, by -8.3% between March and December 2008 and by -10.8% between September 2010 and December 2012.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/chart-3-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/chart-3-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Since the value declines ceased at the end of 2008, only Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra have actually recorded real growth in dwelling values.  In all other cities, real dwelling values are currently lower than they were at the end of 2008 which is now almost nine years ago.  This data really highlights the uneven nature of growth across the capital city housing markets since the end of the financial crisis. It also shows that low mortgage rates alone are not the driver of the much stronger growth in Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/chart-4-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/chart-4-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The above chart shows the change in real dwelling values across each capital city relative to their most recent market peaks.  The chart again shows that values are only above their previous peak in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra.  Brisbane values are -9.3% lower than their peak in March 2008, Adelaide values peaked in June 2010 and are still -6.3% lower.  In Perth, the market peak was September 2007 and values are still -20.0% off their peak and in Hobart values are -11.2% lower than their peak which occurred in December 2007.  Finally, Darwin has seen the largest fall in real dwelling values, down -26.7% from its peak with the peak having occurred in September 2010.</p>
<p>The regularly reported nominal value data is valuable however, it is important and interesting to consider the impact of inflation on dwelling values from time-to-time.  As the data shows, outside of Sydney and Melbourne and to a lesser degree Canberra, dwelling value growth has been extremely weak for a number of years now.</p>
<p><span><span>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him </span><a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a><span>.</span> </span></p>
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Since 2008, only Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra have seen ‘real’ growth in dwelling values

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<div>Whoa, there! It seems that inflation has disappeared into a puff of dust!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Nothing like an outlying result to shake things up a bit, and today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) or inflation result for the March quarter was an absolute ripper!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Headline inflation printed negative at -0.2 percent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This was miles below expectations and the second weakest reading in nearly two decades, taking the annual result all the way down to 1.3 percent (which is well below the target inflation range to 2 to 3 percent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The falls were broad based, with six out of the eleven CPI groups recording declines.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/28/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/28/A6.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<div>More importantly, the "core" analytical series, which strips out outlying readings, notched an extraordinarily soft set of numbers to take the respective annual readings to a record low. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I've diced the data up below to four decimal places, but all you really need to know is that the incredibly weak trimmed mean (0.2 per cent) and weighted median (0.1 per cent) inflation for the quarter have taken the annual readings down to exceptionally low levels at 1.7 per cent and only 1.4 per cent respectively.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/28/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/28/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Non-tradables inflation, which is taken to be a reasonable proxy for domestic price pressures, fell to its lowest annual reading since some seventeen years ago in June 1999. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/28/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/28/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>In the normal course of things this sort of result would make an interest rate cut a no-brainer.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While markets are suddenly pricing a cut as soon as next week on Budget day as an each-way bet, it would nevertheless still be quite a surprise to see such a change of narrative from the Reserve Bank so soon. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said many analysts will now see June and August as potentially live meetings for rate cuts, which could take the cash rate down to a record low of just 1.50 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Generally it is said that easy monetary policy brings inflation in time, but if a lack of investment is the underlying problem then it is questionable whether more rate cuts alone will bring this to the party.</div>
<p><br><span>Anyway, what a result, and a game-changer, indeed!</span></p>
<div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Rental growth slowest since 1994</span></strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There isn't space here to run through all of the positive (education, medical services, pharmaceuticals) and negative (fuel, transport, holidays) contributors to inflation this quarter in detail, but we can see that rental growth has slowed to its lowest level since 1994. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As you can see depicted in the chart below, the periods when investors were spooked out of the market (1985 to 1987, and 2008) were also precisely the periods when rents spiked.</div>
<div>
<br>Correspondingly the record surge in investor activity since 2012 in response to low interest rates - which Blind Freddy could have predicted - has led to near-record low levels of rental growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Rampant investor lending has now been successfully stymied so equilibrium should return in due course, as the construction boom also passes its peak. It's always interesting and strangely satisfying when markets work just as they should. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/28/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/28/A2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<div>Rents have continued to rise modestly in most cities through this cycle, but Darwin (-4.4 per cent) and Perth (-4.4 per cent) are in significantly negative territory year-on-year. On the other hand rents kept rising in Sydney by another +2.3 per cent over the year to March.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/28/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/28/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Looking instead at annual rental growth we can see how Perth has gone from star pupil straight into detention, and now must work through its elevated vacancy rates before annual rental growth reverts to the mean.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/28/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/28/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Rental growth was also negative in Canberra over the year to March (-0.6 per cent) but looks to be heading back into positive territory in the national's capital, while annual rental growth in Hobart increased to 1.4 per cent in the first quarter.</div>
<p><strong style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<div>Well, well. A stunningly low inflation result which wrong-footed markets and puts interest rate cuts right back into the frame. Game on.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Inflation show stopper: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released quarterly Consumer Price Index data for September 2015. The data showed that headline inflation was recorded at 0.5% for the quarter and was 1.5% higher over the year.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-14.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-14.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>As the above chart shows, at 1.5%, headline inflation is below the Reserve Bank’s target range of between 2.0% and 3.0% per annum.  While the headline figure is important, the RBA also likes to look at measures of underlying inflation which exclude some of the more volatile items.  Both measures of underlying inflation; the trimmed mean and the weighted median were recorded at a lower 0.3% over the quarter and have increased by 2.1% and 2.2% respectively over the past year.  These annual increases place underlying inflation within the lower band of the RBA’s target range, it would also indicate that if the RBA felt it necessary they have scope to reduce official interest rates.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-23.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-23.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>The effects of inflation are also an important factor to consider for housing markets.  Although we generally talk about home value growth in nominal terms, real or inflation-adjusted home value changes are also important to consider.  Over the 12 months to September 2015, combined capital city home values have increased by a nominal rate of 11.0% however, in real terms that figure drops to 9.4%.  The above chart shows the annual rate of value change across the individual capital cities in both nominal and real terms.  It highlights once again the significant difference in value growth conditions in Sydney and Melbourne relative to the other capital cities.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-32.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-32.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>In real terms home values have only increased over the past five years in Sydney and Melbourne.  On a compound annual basis, falls have been recorded at -1.7%pa in Brisbane, -2.0%pa in Adelaide, -1.5%pa in Perth, -3.5%pa in Hobart, -3.9%pa in Darwin and -1.4%pa in Canberra.  Real home values have increased at a rate of 4.9%pa over the past five years in Sydney and 1.7%pa in Melbourne.  Over the past decade, real home values have fallen in Hobart and have risen at a rate of less than 2%pa in Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-4.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-4.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>To further highlight the differences across the cities it is valuable to have a look at nominal and real value growth across the capital cities since 2008.  Between March and December of 2008 combined capital city home values fell by a nominal -6.1% or a real -8.3%.  On the back of aggressive interest rate cuts and stimulus in the form of the Boost to the First Home Owners Grant, values began to rise from that point.  Although combined capital city home values have increased since 2008, this is largely by virtue of strong value growth in Sydney and Melbourne.  In fact, real home values are currently lower in Brisbane (-5.2%), Adelaide (-5.4%), Perth (-3.0%) and Hobart (-16.1%) than they were at the end of 2008, almost eight years of no real value growth in these cities.  Real value rises have been moderate since 2008 in Darwin (5.0%) and Canberra (4.1%) and substantially greater in Sydney (51.4%) and Melbourne (41.9%).</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-5.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The above chart looks at the change in real home values on a quarterly basis since their previous peak.  What is immediately noticeable is that Sydney (+24.3%) and Melbourne (+8.9%) are the only cities in which values are now higher than their previous peaks.  The journey to get back above their peaks was somewhat different, Sydney took 41 quarters to eclipse its March 2004 peak while Melbourne took 19 quarters to eclipse its September 2010 peak.  Across each remaining capital city, real home values are below their previous peaks, the figures for each city are: -11.8% in Brisbane, -10.0% in Adelaide, -13.0% in Perth, -21.3% in Hobart, -17.9% in Darwin and -8.1% in Canberra.  For Brisbane, Perth and Hobart in particular the journey back to the previous peak has proven to be long with these markets previously peaking in March 2008, September 2007 and December 2007 respectively.</p>
<p>As values continue to rise in Sydney and Melbourne and show falls or moderate nominal growth in other capital cities, the affordability gap will continue to widen.  At some point these other capital city markets will once again become attractive to buyers.  Importantly this won’t be driven by affordability factors alone; employment opportunities, amenity and local infrastructure, amongst other factors, will be important factors.  The data also highlights that long periods of value falls do happen in the Australian housing market and clearly housing is not a one-way bet.  The broader statistics do tend to be overshadowed by the impact of the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets who are substantially bigger than all other capital cities.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Real home values remain below previous peak: Cameron Kusher

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<div>Delving into the detail behind the Consumer Price Index figures for the third quarter reveals that annual rental price growth in Australia is now tracking at its lowest level since June 1995, with rents up nationally by just +1.5% over the year to September 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The data series captured at the capital city level shows the cylical nature of property prices and rents.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The national level figures show the marked contrast beteween rental price inflation in periods when investors and housing starts were knocked out of the market (1985-1987) and those where investors have flooded the market with rentals and construction has boomed (2012-date).</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/30/Rents1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/30/Rents1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>Naturally significant variances are evident across the capital cities.</span><br><br><div>Annual rental growth remained steady in Sydney (+2.5 per cent), but was softer in Melbourne (+2.2 per cent) and Brisbane (+1.1 per cent), while Perth has now slipped into negative territory on this series (-1.6 per cent) after a big run-up through the resources boom. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/30/Rents4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/30/Rents4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Looking at the annualised data reveals the softening trend, particularly in Perth.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/30/Rents2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/30/Rents2.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>In the smaller capital cities, Hobart appears likely to play host to a level of rental growth over the year ahead with </span>vacancy rates in the Tasmanian capital having tightened sharply<span>.</span><br><br><span>On the other hand Darwin has the </span>opposite problem<span> and has now sunk into negative territory, joining Canberra where annual rents have been negative since the first quarter of calendar year 2014.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Click to enlarge</span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/30/Rents3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Finally, a look at rental growth across 5 and 10 year time periods by capital city shows how the resources capitals enjoyed the bulk of rental growth until the end of the resources boom.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/30/Rents5.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/30/Rents5.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
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Rental inflation soft: Pete Wargent

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<div>There are two very interesting data releases due out on Tuesday.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Firstly the regional population growth figures, which shed more light on where people have been migrating from and to in Australia, which is always very informative. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And then there is the big one: <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">inflation!</span></strong><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>I <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/01/rate-hikes-are-not-on-cards" target="_blank">looked here</a> at the last round of inflation numbers, released in January. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is clearly going to be a vital data series because it shows whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is on target to get inflation back up to its mandated target. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With housing market activity now easing, it will be very interesting to see whether inflation is still on course to rise towards the target over the next couple of years, or whether there will be further downward pressure on interest rates. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The rhetoric from the RBA has been very clear: it doesn't want to cut rates further under any circumstances, unless it absolutely has to. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the year to December, underlying inflation rose +1.87 per cent, which was yet again under the 2 to 3 per cent target range.<br><br>Very soft inflation has been a feature of the economy since the end of 2015.<br><br>There doesn't seem to be a whole lot of pressure on rents at the moment, which is one contributory factor.<br><br>Some of the sources of the inflation that has been in evidence have been in fuel costs, energy, education, and 'sin taxes' on alcohol and tobacco.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Market forecasts</span></strong><br><br>
</div>
<div>Bloomberg released its survey of 20 economists for the March 2018 quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It showed a market median consensus for a quarterly result of +0.5 per cent, which would put annual underlying inflation at about the same level at +1.85 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, some forecasts see a bit of downside risk, most notably AMP.</div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VdEOo5MB2xY/WtnSxc0xgmI/AAAAAAAApf0/evOQx1tXAzYuYi-6vdRTInHVX4jeP3uvgCLcBGAs/s1600/ABS%2BCPI.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VdEOo5MB2xY/WtnSxc0xgmI/AAAAAAAApf0/evOQx1tXAzYuYi-6vdRTInHVX4jeP3uvgCLcBGAs/s640/ABS%2BCPI.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="408" data-original-width="689"></a></div>
<div>Stay tuned for that, and more analysis here on this blog, from 11.30am on Tuesday.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If you like investment property or continued low mortgage rates, say to yourself a silent prayer for a benign print!</div>
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Inflation data will shape future interest rate direction: Pete Wargent

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<p>The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 1.9 per cent in the June 2020 quarter, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.</p>
<p>"This was the largest quarterly fall in the 72 year history of the CPI,” chief economist for the ABS Bruce Hockman said.<span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<p>The annual inflation rate was -0.3 per cent in the year to the June 2020 quarter.</p>
<p>"Since 1949, this was only the third time annual inflation has been negative. The previous times were in 1962 and 1997-98,” Hockman added.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6401.0Media%20Release1June%202020/%24File/CPI_July_2020.svg" target="_blank"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/7/29/CPI%20image.png" alt=""></a></p>
<p><span>The June quarter fall was mainly the result of free child care (-95 per cent), a significant fall in the price of automotive fuel (-19.3 per cent) and a fall in pre-school and primary education (-16.2 per cent), with free pre-school being provided in NSW, Victoria and Queensland.</span></p>
<p><span>"Excluding these three components, the CPI would have risen 0.1 per cent in the June quarter", Hockman said.</span></p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Consumer Price Index falls 1.9% in June: Australian Bureau of Statistics

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Australians as a whole expect prices to increase by only 3.9% annually over the next two years, according to Roy Morgan surveys conducted in January. This is a slight decrease of 0.1% on December, but down 0.3% on a year ago.</p>
<p>This is the lowest expectation of future price increases to start a year since the series began in 2010 and compares to price expectations of 6.6% annually over the next two years in January 2011.</p>
<p>Comparing price expectations by Federal voting intention shows the highest price expectations are held by those voting for Independents/Others at 4.4% annually over the next two years equal to those who can’t say who they would vote for – also 4.4%.</p>
<p>In terms of supporters of the major parties ALP supporters expect annual price increases of 4.1% over the next two years which is slightly higher than the national average of 3.9% and significantly higher than both L-NP supporters on 3.5% and also Greens supporters on 3.7%.</p>
<p>Roy Morgan’s Inflation Expectations Index measures what Australians believe the future trajectory of prices will be over the next two years. Every Australian brings a unique perspective to the anticipated movement in prices, including which prices are important to them in particular – whether that be food and drink prices, the price at the pump, prices for clothing and footwear, the cost of going to the footy, or prices for financial products, education, housing or transport.</p>
<p>Price expectations in January have dropped to only 3.9% and are now below the record low yearly average of 4% in 2019. Importantly, there are clear differences in perceptions of price increases between supporters of different parties. ALP supporters are the only major party supporters with price expectations above the national average at 4.1% whereas there are significantly lower price expectations for both Greens supporters (3.7%) and L-NP supporters (3.5%) that provide a significant drag on the overall index.</p>
<p><strong>Inflation Expectations by Voting Intention: January 2020</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://meltwater-apps-production.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/images/57312c304f003481ed1f1231/image_4679910221582605124165_1582605127519.png" width="525" height="342" data-imagetype="External"></p>
<p><em>Source: Roy Morgan Single Source: January 2020, n=4,052. Base: Australians 14+.</em></p>
<p>Price expectations again highest in Queensland and Tasmania, lowest in WA and NSW</p>
<p>There are significant regional differences for price expectations over the next two years. Those in both Tasmania (5.4%) and Queensland (4.4%) continue to have far higher price expectations than anywhere else.</p>
<p>Price expectations in South Australia (4.0%) are marginally above the national average whilst they are slightly below the national average in Victoria (3.8%), NSW (3.7%) and WA (3.7%). </p>
<p><strong>Inflation Expectations Index long-term trend – Expected Annual Inflation in next 2 years</strong></p>
<p>Click <a href="https://meltwater-apps-production.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/images/57312c304f003481ed1f1231/image_76785245631582605124167_1582605127842.png">here </a>to enlarge:</p>
<p><img src="https://meltwater-apps-production.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/images/57312c304f003481ed1f1231/image_76785245631582605124167_1582605127842.png" width="690" height="420" data-imagetype="External"></p>
<p><em>Source: Roy Morgan Single Source: Interviews an average of 4,000 Australians per month aged 14+ (Apr. 2010 – Jan. 2020).</em></p>
<p>January Inflation Expectations are based on personal interviews with a nationally representative sample of 4,052 Australians aged 14+. Price expectations in 2019 averaged a record low 4% across the year slightly beneath the previous low of 4.1% averaged throughout 2016 and the mark of 3.9% for January represents the lowest price expectations to start a year since the series began in April 2010.</p>
<p><strong>MICHELE</strong> <strong>LEVINE</strong> <em>is the CEO of Roy Morgan</em></p>
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