<p>Iwan Sunito's vision for a landmark mixed-use precinct in Sydney's Inner West has taken a major step forward, with approval granted for the $1.9 billion Five Dock development first unveiled earlier this year.</p>

<p>The approved scheme by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/one-global-capital">One Global Capital</a> will deliver an 80,500 sqm mixed-use precinct comprising 840 apartments, integrated hotel accommodation, commercial and retail space, alongside publicly accessible open space designed to create a new destination for the growing suburb.</p>

<p>"This is a significant milestone for One Global Capital and for the future of housing delivery in Sydney," Sunito said.</p>

<p>"The Housing Delivery Authority was established to identify major housing projects capable of delivering meaningful supply more efficiently, and we are delighted that Spencer Street has been recognised as one of those projects.”</p>

<p>He said the declaration reflected the rapid progress achieved since acquiring control of the site.</p>

<p>"In less than seven months we have progressed from taking control of the site to securing entry into one of the NSW Government's most important planning pathways. It reflects the experience of our team, the strength of our consultant group led by Urbis, and our long-term commitment to delivering transformational projects that contribute to Sydney's future."</p>

<p>When the project was revealed earlier this year, Sunito described the opportunity as one of the strongest development sites he had worked on.</p>

<p>"I probably hadn't appreciated the uniqueness of the site until more recently when putting together the concept plans," Sunito said.</p>

<p>"The proximity to the water, and the golf course opposite, is unlike any other part of Parramatta Road. We have a unique position and view corridors over the water that makes this one of the best sites I've worked on."</p>

<p>The development has evolved since its initial announcement, with the approved plans increasing the residential component from the originally proposed 750 apartments to 840 homes while retaining the project's focus on creating an integrated neighbourhood rather than a standalone residential development.</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/a-city-within-a-city-iwan-sunito-flags-1-5-billion-mixed-use-precinct-in-five-dock">"A city within a city": Iwan Sunito flags $1.5 billion mixed-use precinct in Five Dock</a></em></p>

<p>The precinct will combine apartments with hotel accommodation, commercial workplaces, retail offerings and public spaces, creating a mixed-use environment intended to serve both residents and the broader Five Dock community. The proposal also continues the collaboration between One Global Capital and internationally recognised architect <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/koichi-takada-architects">Koichi Takada</a>, whose previous work with Sunito includes Infinity, Arc and Skye North Sydney.</p>

<p>Takada previously said the design was driven by a philosophy of integrating nature into the built environment.</p>

<p>"The concept for this development is born from our design approach to naturalising architecture," Takada said.</p>

<p>"The public realm benefits from biophilic design that integrates generous landscaping, and the development is optimised for natural daylight, airflow and water views to foster wellbeing, sustainability and spaces that foster community interaction."</p>

<p>Sunito has consistently described the project as a "city within a city", with a strong emphasis on creating a destination that extends beyond housing.</p>

<p>"We want to create a development that's not only to be seen, but to be experienced by the whole local community," he said.</p>

<p>The approval comes as Five Dock continues its transformation ahead of the opening of the Sydney Metro West line, with the new Five Dock station set to significantly improve connections between the Inner West, Parramatta and the Sydney CBD.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The precinct will also benefit from its proximity to the Parramatta Road corridor, nearby waterfront parklands and established retail and dining offerings that have made Five Dock one of Sydney's most tightly held Inner West suburbs.</p>


Joel Robinson

Iwan Sunito secures approval for $1.9 billion Five Dock mixed-use precinct

<p>The new <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/yarraville-green-42-stephen-street-yarraville-vic-3013">Yarraville Green</a> development in Melbourne's inner west is showing that landscaping can be just as influential as architecture, with buyers responding strongly to the garden-first approach adopted from the outset by developer Excelon Projects and the project's design team.</p>

<p>Excelon appointed Six Degrees Architects and landscape architects SBLA to work collaboratively on the development, with a brief to create "a sustainable, design-led building with a focus on community."</p>

<p>That approach has resonated with buyers. According to Next Chapter Director Tom Hirini, who is leading the sales campaign, the landscaped communal garden has become one of the project's defining features, alongside its boutique scale and European-inspired cluster housing concept.</p>

<p>Local downsizers, right-sizers and established families already living in Yarraville and surrounding suburbs have accounted for the majority of purchasers.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297740]</p>

<p>Yarraville Green will comprise 53 homes, including apartments and townhomes, arranged around the shared central garden to maximise connections to the landscaped open space. Parking has been moved underground, allowing the ground plane to be dedicated to greenery, pedestrian movement and communal spaces.</p>

<p>The landscape extends well beyond passive planting. Productive garden beds, a pergola, communal gathering spaces, garden sheds and a pet wash have all been integrated into the masterplan, creating spaces designed to encourage everyday interaction between residents.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297741]</p>

<p>The interiors continue Excelon's focus on craftsmanship, incorporating bespoke elements by Melbourne artisans including leadlight detailing by Adadaz, hand-turned timber hardware by Auburn Woodturning and blown-glass lighting by Ruth Allen.</p>

<p>Sustainability has also been embedded throughout the project, with Yarraville Green targeting an average 7-star NatHERS energy rating through passive design principles, rooftop solar servicing common areas and rainwater harvesting for landscape irrigation.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297735]</p>

<p>Construction continues to progress at Yarraville Green, with structural works well underway and framing works approaching completion under builder Balmain &amp; Co. The project remains on track for completion in mid-2027.</p>

<p>Apartments at Yarraville Green are currently priced from $625,000, while townhomes start from $1.4 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144913]</p>


Garden-led design drives buyer demand at Yarraville Green

<p>National diversified developer Fortis has officially launched Crest &amp; Walker, its latest Brisbane apartment development, with construction now underway on the 20-storey Newstead project.</p>

<p>Award-winning builder BINAH has commenced construction on the Bureau^Proberts-designed building, which will deliver a limited collection of 65 two and three-bedroom apartments on Kyabra Street.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373556]</p>

<p>The project marks Fortis' fourth active residential development in Brisbane, following River House, which is nearing completion, alongside projects in New Farm and Hamilton as the national developer continues to expand its South East Queensland pipeline.</p>

<p>Fortis General Manager – Development Queensland Dan Boman said Crest &amp; Walker reflects the developer's long-term commitment to delivering design-led residential projects in Brisbane's established inner-city suburbs.</p>

<p>"We're proud to be strengthening our presence in Brisbane with Crest &amp; Walker, particularly in such a sought-after lifestyle destination as Newstead," Boman said.</p>

<p>"Every Fortis project is shaped by its context, and we approach each one with the respect and care it deserves.</p>

<p>"Our focus is always on creating places that feel connected to their neighbourhood and elevate the everyday experience for residents. Newstead continues to evolve as one of Brisbane's most sought-after urban communities, and Crest &amp; Walker reflects our ambition to contribute meaningfully to that story."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373559]</p>

<p>Positioned between Gasworks Plaza and James Street, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crest-walker-newstead-12-kyabra-street-newstead-qld-4006">Crest &amp; Walker</a> has been designed as a boutique residential address offering privacy and generous living spaces within one of Brisbane's most established lifestyle precincts.</p>

<p>The building features a contemporary brick podium softened by integrated landscaping, while the upper levels are characterised by restrained architecture and enduring materiality. Interiors have been designed to maximise natural light, acoustic performance and long-term liveability.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373583]</p>

<p>Residences comprise spacious two and three-bedroom floorplans, with two-bedroom apartments priced from $1.55 million and three-bedroom, half-floor residences from $3.95 million.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a wellness-focused rooftop featuring a swimming pool, sauna, steam room, landscaped dining spaces and outdoor lounge areas overlooking Newstead and the Brisbane CBD.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373571]</p>

<p>Sales are being managed by Slaite Projects, with Fortis expecting strong demand from owner-occupiers seeking a high-quality, design-focused apartment in one of Brisbane's most tightly held inner-city suburbs.</p>

<p>Completion of Crest &amp; Walker is slated for late 2028.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145922]</p>


Fortis expands Brisbane pipeline with launch of Crest & Walker in Newstead

<p>The enormity of delivering a true skyscraper in Australia's new development market is often overlooked.</p>

<p>It has taken the best part of a decade since plans for Chevron One were first unveiled, but the 41-storey tower is now complete, with residents collecting their keys and moving into what has become one of the Gold Coast's most recognisable new landmarks.</p>

<p>Rising 127 metres above Chevron Island, Chevron One stands almost twice as high as any other building on the island. Its scale places it alongside the trio of towers at Jewel, arguably the last truly significant addition to the central Gold Coast skyline when they were completed around six years ago.</p>

<p>While there are several developments underway around a similar height to Chevron One, they are more concentrated within clusters of the highest towers in the city. The fact Chevron One sits within a developing precinct, looking back at the other high-rise developments in Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach, makes it a different proposition altogether. It will certainly become a reference point on the Gold Coast skyline.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68833]</p>

<p>Developer Bensons Property Group is behind the 41-storey tower, which has 229 apartments, along with an exhaustive list of resident amenity spread across what is the largest development site ever assembled on Chevron Island.</p>

<p>The tower has been the talk of the town for years, says Ray White Projects Gold Coast agent Caitlin Rosenboom, who is selling the remaining apartments.</p>

<p>"People have been watching Chevron One go up for years," Rosenboom says, adding that many prospective buyers have been surprised by the scale of the views once they step inside.</p>

<p>"It's only when they walk through a completed apartment that they truly understand the position of the building," Rosenboom says.</p>

<p>"The views are jaw-dropping. Whether you're looking east over the ocean, across Surfers Paradise, along the river systems or out to the hinterland, every level offers something different but equally impressive."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=360215]</p>

<p>One of Chevron One's defining advantages is its location on the eastern side of Chevron Island on Stanhill Drive, a position which protects the views forever.</p>

<p>"There's only one row of houses between Chevron One and the water, and the height restrictions along the river means views from Chevron One can never be built out,"&nbsp;Rosenboom says.</p>

<p>While new apartment developments continue to emerge across the Gold Coast, Rosenboom says opportunities to secure a completed apartment with this level of outlook are becoming increasingly rare.</p>

<p>"The size of the site is something that would be incredibly difficult to replicate today," she says.</p>

<p>"That's allowed Chevron One to deliver the sort of amenity, open space and resident facilities that very few projects can offer. There are not many completed apartment buildings on the Gold Coast right now that can compete with the combination of scale, quality and amenity."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68839]</p>

<p>There's around 2,000 sqm of amenity solely for the use of residents of Chevron One. Club One features a uniquely shaped swimming pool that mirrors the footprint of the building itself, set within a extensively landscaped gardens. There's also an indoor pool and spa, a fully equipped gym with a Pilates room, a yoga garden, a bookable private dining area and lounge that can host up to 30 people, and a 24-hour concierge service.</p>

<p>As for the buyers, Rosenboom is fielding enquiry from everywhere: Sydneysiders and Melburnians looking at the new and off-the-plan market following the changes in the Federal Budget, as well as those looking to relocate, through to South East Queenslanders seeking either a permanent home or a weekender bolthole.</p>

<p>"The Gold Coast lifestyle continues to resonate with people relocating from the southern states, and when they see the views and the quality of what's been delivered at Chevron One, it becomes very easy for them to understand the appeal," Rosenboom says.</p>

<p>A diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments remain available, with each offering "something a little different", be it the orientation and views, configuration, or level, to suit a wide variety of buyers.</p>

<p>The remaining apartments are ready to inspect in person, by appointment.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6515]</p>


A decade in the making: Residents to move into Chevron One as construction wraps up

<p>A general rule of thumb in new apartment developments is that the penthouses get the rooftop.</p>

<p>It's a formula that's become commonplace across Australia's apartment market. Residents might have access to a pool, gym or barbecue facilities on a dedicated lower level, but the most desirable outdoor spaces are typically reserved for the highest-priced homes at the top of the building.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Property Group</a> has taken the opposite approach.</p>

<p>Rather than dedicating the rooftop to a handful of buyers, the Gold Coast developer has made it the centrepiece of its Flourish collection, creating expansive shared spaces from the best vantage point in the building.</p>

<p>The philosophy has reached its most ambitious expression at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> in Palm Beach, where two rooftop precincts connected by a skybridge will deliver one of the most extensive lifestyle offerings seen in a residential apartment project on the Gold Coast.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374053]</p>

<p>"We're seeing a clear move toward developments that offer more than just an apartment," Sherpa Group founder Christie Leet said.</p>

<p>"People want spaces that support how they actually live, whether that's working from home, staying active, or spending time with family and friends.</p>

<p>"That's where amenity becomes critical. It's not just about what's included, but how those spaces are designed to be used every day."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374052]</p>

<p>The breadth of amenity has already attracted buyers across multiple demographics. Younger first home buyers have been drawn to Soleira's one-bedroom apartments, a product rarely delivered in Palm Beach, while families have responded to practical inclusions such as the shallow children's pool adjoining the main lap pool and the extensive communal recreation areas.</p>

<p>Instead of a single rooftop, Soleira delivers two distinct lifestyle zones.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=372547]</p>

<p>The southern rooftop has been dedicated to wellness, featuring a gym, yoga and Pilates studio, work-from-home facilities, a wellness centre, spa, and hot and cold plunge pools.</p>

<p>The northern rooftop focuses on recreation and entertaining, incorporating a heated resort-style pool, private dining rooms, pizza ovens, barbecues, a golf simulator, children's recreation areas, and what is expected to be the Gold Coast's first rooftop basketball court, which will also double as a squash court.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374054]</p>

<p>Beyond the rooftops, Soleira will introduce 1,500 sqm of curated retail beneath the towers, creating one of Palm Beach's first genuinely mixed-use lifestyle precincts where cafés, restaurants and convenience retail become part of residents' everyday lives.</p>

<p>Sherpa has also retained management rights across the development, allowing it to oversee the long-term operation of the building through a 24-hour concierge model. The developer is also exploring additional revenue streams within the precinct aimed at helping offset ongoing body corporate costs for residents.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370962]</p>

<p>While Soleira is the largest project Sherpa has delivered, the rooftop-first philosophy has been evolving for several years.</p>

<p>It began with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>, the first project released under the Flourish brand. Rather than competing at the ultra-luxury end of the market with oversized half-floor and full-floor residences, Sherpa focused on creating lifestyle-driven apartments supported by resort-style shared spaces.</p>

<p>Amargo introduced more than 800 sqm of rooftop amenity, combining wellness facilities, heated pools, entertaining areas, cabanas, pizza ovens and private dining spaces into what was designed as an extension of residents' homes rather than a facility used only occasionally.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=366550]</p>

<p>That approach continued with Flourish Oasis, where the same amenity-led philosophy was refined into a more boutique development. Strong demand from Sherpa's growing VIP database saw much of the project sold before it reached the broader market, reinforcing buyer appetite for apartment communities centred around shared lifestyle experiences.</p>

<p>Flourish Amargo is slated for completion mid-way-through next year, with Oasis to be delivered by late 2027. Flourish Soleira is expected to complete in 2030.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]</p>


Sherpa takes amenity to the sky as Flourish Soleira captures booming Palm Beach demand

Inflation

<p>Australia&#39;s inflation, a key metric in the RBA&#39;s future interest rate calls, rose 0.6 per cent over the March quarter, according to data released by the ABS.</p>

<p>The consumer price index (CPI)&nbsp;came in materially lower than what was forecasted across markets and broadly in line with the RBA&#39;s below market expectation.</p>

<p>Westpac was forecasting a one per cent lift in the CPI, with AMP Capital forecasting a 0.9 per cent rise.</p>

<p>The RBA&nbsp;say they will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the two to three per cent range.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=27728]</p>

<p>For this to occur, wages growth will have to be materially higher than it is currently, which&nbsp;will require significant gains in employment and a return to a tight labour market, the RBA noted at its April board meeting.</p>

<p>The latest results will unlikely change the RBA&#39;s thinking that rates won&#39;t move until 2024 at the earliest.</p>

<p>CPI was 1.1 per cent up annually, compared to the forecasted 1.4 per cent.</p>

<p>New dwelling prices declined 0.1 per cent over the quarter, namely due to the impact of the Federal Government&#39;s HomeBuilder grant and similar grants by Western Australian and Tasmania state governments.</p>

<p>&quot;Without the offset from these grants, the price of new dwelling would have risen, reflecting increases in materials and labour prices in response to strong demand&quot;, head of prices statistics at the&nbsp;ABS&nbsp;Michelle&nbsp;Marquardt said.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


The consumer price index (CPI) came in materially lower than what was forecasted across markets



RBA unlikely to advance interest rate moves after lower than expected inflation figures

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>

<p>The ABS reported a 0.9% lift in the December quarter CPI which was greater than Westpac’s (and the market median) forecast of 0.7%. At two decimal places the CPI lifted 0.86% with the annual pace lifting a touch from 0.7%yr to 0.9%yr.</p>

<p>The core measures were around expectations with the trimmed mean lifting 0.4%qtr (WBC forecast 0.3%/market median 0.4%) while the weighted median gained 0.5%. Excluding the imputed series had little impact on the core measures.</p>

<p>The CPI is still being influenced by government taxes and subsidies which have been pushing and pulling on the data. However, outside of dwelling prices we found little to suggests more broad based inflationary pressures.</p>

<p>The main surprise compared to our forecast was how the surge in housing demand lifting dwelling prices to swamp the benefit of the Home Builders Grants. In many capital cities developers were able to lift prices in excess of the value of the grants, even in Perth and Hobart were the Federal Grant ($25,000) was supplemented by state government grants ($20,000).  </p>

<p>In our preview we had expected that the know rise in childcare would be offset by falling housing costs but rising underlying dwelling prices swamped the discounts. Prices fell in Sydney (-0.3%), Adelaide (-0.5%), Darwin (-2.3%) and Canberra (-0.5%) but lifted in Melbourne (0.9%), Brisbane (2.0%), Perth (2.2%) and Hobart (1.1%). The large rise in Perth and Hobart is somewhat very surprising given the lower level of house prices in those capital cities and the almost doubling of the size of the grants in those cities.</p>

<p>It is also worth noting that rents rose 0.1%, while modest it was stronger than the expected fall -0.3%. Electricity prices fell -7.5% due to a $600 in WA which saw electricity prices fall -66.7% in Perth.  </p>

<p>There was the expected rise in two key components; the 33.7% lift in childcare and the 10.9% rise in tobacco prices.</p>

<p>The ABS informed us earlier of the magnitude of the rise in child care due to the ending of free child care in Victoria. Overall, household equipment and services rose 3.4% (WBC forecast 3.5%). Excluding child care this group would have fallen -0.7%.</p>

<p>Tobacco prices rise every December quarter due to the re-indexing of the excise to the CPI.</p>

<p>Unlike the NZ CPI it was harder to find any broader inflationary pressures from the COVID induced changes in demand. Holiday travel cost did rise bit more than expected but household contents were close to expectations while clothing fell more than expected.</p>

<p>However, dwelling prices are running well ahead of our expectations and even rents have turned positive. These factors can have a meaningful impact on estimates of core inflation, something we will be looking more deeply at for our monthly update.</p>

<p>Justin Smirk is an economist at Westpac.</p>
</body></html>

The main surprise compared to our forecast was how the surge in housing demand lifting dwelling prices to swamp the benefit of the Home Builders Grants

Q4 CPI above expectations as dwelling prices surge: Westpac

<html><body>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the December 2015 quarter.</p>
<p>The data showed that inflationary pressures remain very low with headline inflation rising 1.7% over the year and core inflation (underlying inflation) increasing by 2.0% over the past year, which is right at the lower end of the Reserve Bank’s (RBA) target range for inflation of 2% to 3%. Of course across most developed nations there are very few inflationary pressures currently despite record low interest rates.</p>
<p>As a follower of the residential housing market I always like to have a look at the impact of inflation on Australian capital city home values by adjusting the CoreLogic RP Data Home Value Index for the impact of inflation. </p>
<p>As you’d expect with inflation so low it is having minimal impact however, over the longer term it has had an impact on the real increase in capital city home values.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/29/Chart-1-2-580x209.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/01/29/Chart-1-2-580x209.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>With nominal home values increasing by 7.8% in 2015 across the combined capitals, when adjusted for inflation growth is somewhat lower at 6.0% over the year.  In terms of the individual capital city performances the four cities which recorded nominal value increases have still seen values rise in real terms albeit the rate of growth is lower.  Alternatively, the cities which recorded value falls have seen larger value falls in real terms.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/29/Chart-2-2-580x206.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/01/29/Chart-2-2-580x206.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The trends across the capital city housing markets have shifted substantially since the financial crisis after home values declined during 2008.  Since the financial crisis home value growth has surged in Sydney and Melbourne, while elsewhere the rate of value growth has generally been comparatively modest. </p>
<p>The chart above shows nominal and real home value changes over the seven years from December 2008 to December 2015.  While Hobart was the only capital city to record a nominal value fall over that time, in real terms values are lower over the past seven years in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth while they have barely moved in Darwin and Canberra.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/01/29/Chart-3-1-580x210.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/01/29/Chart-3-1-580x210.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>To further highlight the previous point, the above chart shows the change in real home values across each capital city since their previous cyclical peak.  Sydney and Melbourne are the only two capital cities in which home values are higher than their previous peak. </p>
<p>After Sydney home values hit a previous peak in March 2004 they are currently 21.1%, in Melbourne home values peaked in September 2010 and are currently 6.5% higher.  Elsewhere home values are -11.0% lower than the March 2008 peak in Brisbane, -9.8% lower than their June 2010 peak in Adelaide, -13.5% lower than their September 2007 peak in Perth, -21.8%  lower than their December 2007 peak in Hobart, -19.3% lower than their September 2010 peak in Darwin, and -8.5% lower than their June 2010 peak in Canberra. </p>
<p>Despite historic low mortgage rates over recent years, home value growth in real terms over recent years has been soft.</p>
<p>Of course most people don’t think about the ‘real’ growth in home values, we tend to operate in a nominal world.  We see the value of our assets rising and we are generally quite happy with that however, it is important to at times consider the impact of inflation and if our asset values are rising at a faster pace than prices more broadly.</p>
<p>The data shows that even with historic low mortgage rates, real home value growth has failed to show any substantial or sustainable pick-up outside of Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p>This suggests that other economic factors are impacting on demand for housing. Furthermore, the drivers of housing demand in Sydney and Melbourne are somewhat different to the rest of the country. Some suggestions as to what these factors are would be the rise in demand from overseas purchasers, greater demand due to better jobs growth and employment prospects as well as the fact that these cities already have more than 4 million people compared to our next largest city at around 2 million people.</p>
<p>The much higher population results in substantially more housing demand than elsewhere in the country.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Sydney and Melbourne are the only capital cities with any significant increase after inflation: Cameron Kusher

<html><body>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The consumer price index (CPI) for June 2017 was released earlier this week showed that over the quarter headline inflation was recorded at 0.2% which took inflation to just 1.9% over the year to June 2017. </p>
<p>Although annual headline CPI was temporarily within the Reserve Bank (RBA) target range of 2% to 3% over the March 2017, it has been below target for 10 of the past 11 quarters.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/chart-1-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/chart-1-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Adjusting dwelling value growth for inflation provides valuable insight into the housing market’s performance.  With inflation currently at such a low level, adjusting for it is not resulting in any additional capital cities seeing value decline however, over the longer term it does highlight the significant under performance in terms of value growth for certain cities.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/chart-2-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/chart-2-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>While in nominal terms capital city dwelling values declined in 2008 and then again in 2011-12, in real terms the declines were larger over these two periods and values also declined in 2004-05.  In nominal terms, values fell by -6.1% between March and December of 2008 and by -6.4% between September 2010 and June 2012.  In real terms, values fell by -2.6% between March 2004 and December 2005, by -8.3% between March and December 2008 and by -10.8% between September 2010 and December 2012.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/chart-3-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/chart-3-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Since the value declines ceased at the end of 2008, only Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra have actually recorded real growth in dwelling values.  In all other cities, real dwelling values are currently lower than they were at the end of 2008 which is now almost nine years ago.  This data really highlights the uneven nature of growth across the capital city housing markets since the end of the financial crisis. It also shows that low mortgage rates alone are not the driver of the much stronger growth in Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/chart-4-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/chart-4-1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The above chart shows the change in real dwelling values across each capital city relative to their most recent market peaks.  The chart again shows that values are only above their previous peak in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra.  Brisbane values are -9.3% lower than their peak in March 2008, Adelaide values peaked in June 2010 and are still -6.3% lower.  In Perth, the market peak was September 2007 and values are still -20.0% off their peak and in Hobart values are -11.2% lower than their peak which occurred in December 2007.  Finally, Darwin has seen the largest fall in real dwelling values, down -26.7% from its peak with the peak having occurred in September 2010.</p>
<p>The regularly reported nominal value data is valuable however, it is important and interesting to consider the impact of inflation on dwelling values from time-to-time.  As the data shows, outside of Sydney and Melbourne and to a lesser degree Canberra, dwelling value growth has been extremely weak for a number of years now.</p>
<p><span><span>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him </span><a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a><span>.</span> </span></p>
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Since 2008, only Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra have seen ‘real’ growth in dwelling values

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<div>Whoa, there! It seems that inflation has disappeared into a puff of dust!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Nothing like an outlying result to shake things up a bit, and today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) or inflation result for the March quarter was an absolute ripper!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Headline inflation printed negative at -0.2 percent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This was miles below expectations and the second weakest reading in nearly two decades, taking the annual result all the way down to 1.3 percent (which is well below the target inflation range to 2 to 3 percent).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The falls were broad based, with six out of the eleven CPI groups recording declines.</div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/28/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/28/A6.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<div>More importantly, the "core" analytical series, which strips out outlying readings, notched an extraordinarily soft set of numbers to take the respective annual readings to a record low. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I've diced the data up below to four decimal places, but all you really need to know is that the incredibly weak trimmed mean (0.2 per cent) and weighted median (0.1 per cent) inflation for the quarter have taken the annual readings down to exceptionally low levels at 1.7 per cent and only 1.4 per cent respectively.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/28/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/28/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Non-tradables inflation, which is taken to be a reasonable proxy for domestic price pressures, fell to its lowest annual reading since some seventeen years ago in June 1999. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/28/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/28/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<p> </p>
<div>In the normal course of things this sort of result would make an interest rate cut a no-brainer.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While markets are suddenly pricing a cut as soon as next week on Budget day as an each-way bet, it would nevertheless still be quite a surprise to see such a change of narrative from the Reserve Bank so soon. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said many analysts will now see June and August as potentially live meetings for rate cuts, which could take the cash rate down to a record low of just 1.50 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Generally it is said that easy monetary policy brings inflation in time, but if a lack of investment is the underlying problem then it is questionable whether more rate cuts alone will bring this to the party.</div>
<p><br><span>Anyway, what a result, and a game-changer, indeed!</span></p>
<div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Rental growth slowest since 1994</span></strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There isn't space here to run through all of the positive (education, medical services, pharmaceuticals) and negative (fuel, transport, holidays) contributors to inflation this quarter in detail, but we can see that rental growth has slowed to its lowest level since 1994. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As you can see depicted in the chart below, the periods when investors were spooked out of the market (1985 to 1987, and 2008) were also precisely the periods when rents spiked.</div>
<div>
<br>Correspondingly the record surge in investor activity since 2012 in response to low interest rates - which Blind Freddy could have predicted - has led to near-record low levels of rental growth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Rampant investor lending has now been successfully stymied so equilibrium should return in due course, as the construction boom also passes its peak. It's always interesting and strangely satisfying when markets work just as they should. </div>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/28/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/28/A2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<div>Rents have continued to rise modestly in most cities through this cycle, but Darwin (-4.4 per cent) and Perth (-4.4 per cent) are in significantly negative territory year-on-year. On the other hand rents kept rising in Sydney by another +2.3 per cent over the year to March.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/28/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/04/28/A4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Looking instead at annual rental growth we can see how Perth has gone from star pupil straight into detention, and now must work through its elevated vacancy rates before annual rental growth reverts to the mean.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/04/28/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/28/A3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Rental growth was also negative in Canberra over the year to March (-0.6 per cent) but looks to be heading back into positive territory in the national's capital, while annual rental growth in Hobart increased to 1.4 per cent in the first quarter.</div>
<p><strong style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<div>Well, well. A stunningly low inflation result which wrong-footed markets and puts interest rate cuts right back into the frame. Game on.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Inflation show stopper: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released quarterly Consumer Price Index data for September 2015. The data showed that headline inflation was recorded at 0.5% for the quarter and was 1.5% higher over the year.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-14.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-14.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>As the above chart shows, at 1.5%, headline inflation is below the Reserve Bank’s target range of between 2.0% and 3.0% per annum.  While the headline figure is important, the RBA also likes to look at measures of underlying inflation which exclude some of the more volatile items.  Both measures of underlying inflation; the trimmed mean and the weighted median were recorded at a lower 0.3% over the quarter and have increased by 2.1% and 2.2% respectively over the past year.  These annual increases place underlying inflation within the lower band of the RBA’s target range, it would also indicate that if the RBA felt it necessary they have scope to reduce official interest rates.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-23.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-23.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>The effects of inflation are also an important factor to consider for housing markets.  Although we generally talk about home value growth in nominal terms, real or inflation-adjusted home value changes are also important to consider.  Over the 12 months to September 2015, combined capital city home values have increased by a nominal rate of 11.0% however, in real terms that figure drops to 9.4%.  The above chart shows the annual rate of value change across the individual capital cities in both nominal and real terms.  It highlights once again the significant difference in value growth conditions in Sydney and Melbourne relative to the other capital cities.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-32.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-32.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>In real terms home values have only increased over the past five years in Sydney and Melbourne.  On a compound annual basis, falls have been recorded at -1.7%pa in Brisbane, -2.0%pa in Adelaide, -1.5%pa in Perth, -3.5%pa in Hobart, -3.9%pa in Darwin and -1.4%pa in Canberra.  Real home values have increased at a rate of 4.9%pa over the past five years in Sydney and 1.7%pa in Melbourne.  Over the past decade, real home values have fallen in Hobart and have risen at a rate of less than 2%pa in Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-4.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-4.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>To further highlight the differences across the cities it is valuable to have a look at nominal and real value growth across the capital cities since 2008.  Between March and December of 2008 combined capital city home values fell by a nominal -6.1% or a real -8.3%.  On the back of aggressive interest rate cuts and stimulus in the form of the Boost to the First Home Owners Grant, values began to rise from that point.  Although combined capital city home values have increased since 2008, this is largely by virtue of strong value growth in Sydney and Melbourne.  In fact, real home values are currently lower in Brisbane (-5.2%), Adelaide (-5.4%), Perth (-3.0%) and Hobart (-16.1%) than they were at the end of 2008, almost eight years of no real value growth in these cities.  Real value rises have been moderate since 2008 in Darwin (5.0%) and Canberra (4.1%) and substantially greater in Sydney (51.4%) and Melbourne (41.9%).</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/10/28/Chart-5.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The above chart looks at the change in real home values on a quarterly basis since their previous peak.  What is immediately noticeable is that Sydney (+24.3%) and Melbourne (+8.9%) are the only cities in which values are now higher than their previous peaks.  The journey to get back above their peaks was somewhat different, Sydney took 41 quarters to eclipse its March 2004 peak while Melbourne took 19 quarters to eclipse its September 2010 peak.  Across each remaining capital city, real home values are below their previous peaks, the figures for each city are: -11.8% in Brisbane, -10.0% in Adelaide, -13.0% in Perth, -21.3% in Hobart, -17.9% in Darwin and -8.1% in Canberra.  For Brisbane, Perth and Hobart in particular the journey back to the previous peak has proven to be long with these markets previously peaking in March 2008, September 2007 and December 2007 respectively.</p>
<p>As values continue to rise in Sydney and Melbourne and show falls or moderate nominal growth in other capital cities, the affordability gap will continue to widen.  At some point these other capital city markets will once again become attractive to buyers.  Importantly this won’t be driven by affordability factors alone; employment opportunities, amenity and local infrastructure, amongst other factors, will be important factors.  The data also highlights that long periods of value falls do happen in the Australian housing market and clearly housing is not a one-way bet.  The broader statistics do tend to be overshadowed by the impact of the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets who are substantially bigger than all other capital cities.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Real home values remain below previous peak: Cameron Kusher

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<div>Delving into the detail behind the Consumer Price Index figures for the third quarter reveals that annual rental price growth in Australia is now tracking at its lowest level since June 1995, with rents up nationally by just +1.5% over the year to September 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The data series captured at the capital city level shows the cylical nature of property prices and rents.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The national level figures show the marked contrast beteween rental price inflation in periods when investors and housing starts were knocked out of the market (1985-1987) and those where investors have flooded the market with rentals and construction has boomed (2012-date).</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/30/Rents1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/30/Rents1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>Naturally significant variances are evident across the capital cities.</span><br><br><div>Annual rental growth remained steady in Sydney (+2.5 per cent), but was softer in Melbourne (+2.2 per cent) and Brisbane (+1.1 per cent), while Perth has now slipped into negative territory on this series (-1.6 per cent) after a big run-up through the resources boom. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/30/Rents4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/30/Rents4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Looking at the annualised data reveals the softening trend, particularly in Perth.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/30/Rents2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/30/Rents2.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>In the smaller capital cities, Hobart appears likely to play host to a level of rental growth over the year ahead with </span>vacancy rates in the Tasmanian capital having tightened sharply<span>.</span><br><br><span>On the other hand Darwin has the </span>opposite problem<span> and has now sunk into negative territory, joining Canberra where annual rents have been negative since the first quarter of calendar year 2014.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Click to enlarge</span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/30/Rents3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Finally, a look at rental growth across 5 and 10 year time periods by capital city shows how the resources capitals enjoyed the bulk of rental growth until the end of the resources boom.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/10/30/Rents5.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/30/Rents5.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
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Rental inflation soft: Pete Wargent

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<div>There are two very interesting data releases due out on Tuesday.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Firstly the regional population growth figures, which shed more light on where people have been migrating from and to in Australia, which is always very informative. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And then there is the big one: <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">inflation!</span></strong><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong>I <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/01/rate-hikes-are-not-on-cards" target="_blank">looked here</a> at the last round of inflation numbers, released in January. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is clearly going to be a vital data series because it shows whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is on target to get inflation back up to its mandated target. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>With housing market activity now easing, it will be very interesting to see whether inflation is still on course to rise towards the target over the next couple of years, or whether there will be further downward pressure on interest rates. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The rhetoric from the RBA has been very clear: it doesn't want to cut rates further under any circumstances, unless it absolutely has to. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the year to December, underlying inflation rose +1.87 per cent, which was yet again under the 2 to 3 per cent target range.<br><br>Very soft inflation has been a feature of the economy since the end of 2015.<br><br>There doesn't seem to be a whole lot of pressure on rents at the moment, which is one contributory factor.<br><br>Some of the sources of the inflation that has been in evidence have been in fuel costs, energy, education, and 'sin taxes' on alcohol and tobacco.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Market forecasts</span></strong><br><br>
</div>
<div>Bloomberg released its survey of 20 economists for the March 2018 quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It showed a market median consensus for a quarterly result of +0.5 per cent, which would put annual underlying inflation at about the same level at +1.85 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, some forecasts see a bit of downside risk, most notably AMP.</div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VdEOo5MB2xY/WtnSxc0xgmI/AAAAAAAApf0/evOQx1tXAzYuYi-6vdRTInHVX4jeP3uvgCLcBGAs/s1600/ABS%2BCPI.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VdEOo5MB2xY/WtnSxc0xgmI/AAAAAAAApf0/evOQx1tXAzYuYi-6vdRTInHVX4jeP3uvgCLcBGAs/s640/ABS%2BCPI.jpg" width="640" height="378" data-original-height="408" data-original-width="689"></a></div>
<div>Stay tuned for that, and more analysis here on this blog, from 11.30am on Tuesday.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If you like investment property or continued low mortgage rates, say to yourself a silent prayer for a benign print!</div>
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Inflation data will shape future interest rate direction: Pete Wargent

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<p>The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 1.9 per cent in the June 2020 quarter, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.</p>
<p>"This was the largest quarterly fall in the 72 year history of the CPI,” chief economist for the ABS Bruce Hockman said.<span style="font-size: 12.16px;"> </span></p>
<p>The annual inflation rate was -0.3 per cent in the year to the June 2020 quarter.</p>
<p>"Since 1949, this was only the third time annual inflation has been negative. The previous times were in 1962 and 1997-98,” Hockman added.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6401.0Media%20Release1June%202020/%24File/CPI_July_2020.svg" target="_blank"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/7/29/CPI%20image.png" alt=""></a></p>
<p><span>The June quarter fall was mainly the result of free child care (-95 per cent), a significant fall in the price of automotive fuel (-19.3 per cent) and a fall in pre-school and primary education (-16.2 per cent), with free pre-school being provided in NSW, Victoria and Queensland.</span></p>
<p><span>"Excluding these three components, the CPI would have risen 0.1 per cent in the June quarter", Hockman said.</span></p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Consumer Price Index falls 1.9% in June: Australian Bureau of Statistics

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Australians as a whole expect prices to increase by only 3.9% annually over the next two years, according to Roy Morgan surveys conducted in January. This is a slight decrease of 0.1% on December, but down 0.3% on a year ago.</p>
<p>This is the lowest expectation of future price increases to start a year since the series began in 2010 and compares to price expectations of 6.6% annually over the next two years in January 2011.</p>
<p>Comparing price expectations by Federal voting intention shows the highest price expectations are held by those voting for Independents/Others at 4.4% annually over the next two years equal to those who can’t say who they would vote for – also 4.4%.</p>
<p>In terms of supporters of the major parties ALP supporters expect annual price increases of 4.1% over the next two years which is slightly higher than the national average of 3.9% and significantly higher than both L-NP supporters on 3.5% and also Greens supporters on 3.7%.</p>
<p>Roy Morgan’s Inflation Expectations Index measures what Australians believe the future trajectory of prices will be over the next two years. Every Australian brings a unique perspective to the anticipated movement in prices, including which prices are important to them in particular – whether that be food and drink prices, the price at the pump, prices for clothing and footwear, the cost of going to the footy, or prices for financial products, education, housing or transport.</p>
<p>Price expectations in January have dropped to only 3.9% and are now below the record low yearly average of 4% in 2019. Importantly, there are clear differences in perceptions of price increases between supporters of different parties. ALP supporters are the only major party supporters with price expectations above the national average at 4.1% whereas there are significantly lower price expectations for both Greens supporters (3.7%) and L-NP supporters (3.5%) that provide a significant drag on the overall index.</p>
<p><strong>Inflation Expectations by Voting Intention: January 2020</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://meltwater-apps-production.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/images/57312c304f003481ed1f1231/image_4679910221582605124165_1582605127519.png" width="525" height="342" data-imagetype="External"></p>
<p><em>Source: Roy Morgan Single Source: January 2020, n=4,052. Base: Australians 14+.</em></p>
<p>Price expectations again highest in Queensland and Tasmania, lowest in WA and NSW</p>
<p>There are significant regional differences for price expectations over the next two years. Those in both Tasmania (5.4%) and Queensland (4.4%) continue to have far higher price expectations than anywhere else.</p>
<p>Price expectations in South Australia (4.0%) are marginally above the national average whilst they are slightly below the national average in Victoria (3.8%), NSW (3.7%) and WA (3.7%). </p>
<p><strong>Inflation Expectations Index long-term trend – Expected Annual Inflation in next 2 years</strong></p>
<p>Click <a href="https://meltwater-apps-production.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/images/57312c304f003481ed1f1231/image_76785245631582605124167_1582605127842.png">here </a>to enlarge:</p>
<p><img src="https://meltwater-apps-production.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/images/57312c304f003481ed1f1231/image_76785245631582605124167_1582605127842.png" width="690" height="420" data-imagetype="External"></p>
<p><em>Source: Roy Morgan Single Source: Interviews an average of 4,000 Australians per month aged 14+ (Apr. 2010 – Jan. 2020).</em></p>
<p>January Inflation Expectations are based on personal interviews with a nationally representative sample of 4,052 Australians aged 14+. Price expectations in 2019 averaged a record low 4% across the year slightly beneath the previous low of 4.1% averaged throughout 2016 and the mark of 3.9% for January represents the lowest price expectations to start a year since the series began in April 2010.</p>
<p><strong>MICHELE</strong> <strong>LEVINE</strong> <em>is the CEO of Roy Morgan</em></p>
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