ANZ believes the Reserve Bank is in no rush to move again.

Following the release of the May Monetary Policy Board Minutes, ANZ has taken the view that the RBA is now firmly in a holding pattern, with the cumulative impact of previous rate hikes giving the Board scope to assess how the economy evolves from here.

That positioning, in ANZ’s view, makes a June rate hike unlikely.

The bank continues to expect the cash rate to remain unchanged at 4.35 per cent for an extended period, with the RBA adopting what is effectively a wait-and-see approach.

The Minutes point to a Board that sees financial conditions as already restrictive, but without a clear read on just how restrictive they are. That uncertainty has shifted the focus away from immediate policy action and toward monitoring both domestic conditions and global developments, particularly the conflict in the Middle East.

As ANZ interprets it, the Board is deliberately avoiding strong forward guidance.

Instead, it is allowing itself flexibility, acknowledging that monetary policy has limited ability to influence the near-term trajectory of inflation, while also recognising that economic growth is likely to remain below potential for some time.

Despite that pause in momentum, ANZ notes that the Board still carries a tightening bias.

The Minutes reveal that, in weighing up its decision, the Board seriously considered another 25 basis point increase. The key debate centred on the trade-off between inflation and activity, particularly in the context of global uncertainty.

Ultimately, most members leaned toward the inflation side of that equation.

Underlying inflation is still expected to remain above target for an extended period, regardless of how external risks evolve. That has led to a view within the Board that the risks to its inflation objective have increased, and that the current cash rate may not be sufficiently restrictive to fully contain those pressures.

That’s important.

While the decision, for now, is to hold, the underlying tone of the Minutes suggests the door to further tightening has not been closed.

ANZ also points to commentary from Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter, who highlighted the risk that inflation could pass through the economy more quickly and broadly than in previous cycles. Both Hunter and a majority of the Board expressed concern that inflation expectations could become less anchored after such a prolonged period above target.

That combination, persistent inflation and the risk of expectations shifting, is what continues to underpin the RBA’s cautious stance.

However, where ANZ diverges from the RBA is on the outlook for activity.

The Board appears relatively comfortable with current spending patterns, effectively downplaying recent declines in business and consumer sentiment. It notes that sentiment has historically been only weakly correlated with actual spending, and that feedback from its liaison program has not yet pointed to a meaningful slowdown in consumption.

ANZ is less convinced.

The bank believes the link between household disposable income, sentiment and spending is more direct than the RBA is currently acknowledging. With inflation continuing to erode real incomes, ANZ expects household spending to soften more materially than the central bank is forecasting.

That divergence matters because it shifts the balance of risk.

If activity weakens more than expected, the trade-off between inflation and growth changes. In ANZ’s view, that would reduce the need for further tightening and reinforce the case for the RBA to remain on hold.

It also suggests that the current policy setting may already be doing more work than the Board fully appreciates.

The broader takeaway from ANZ’s interpretation is that the RBA is walking a narrow path.

On one side sits the risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected. On the other is the growing pressure on households and the potential for a sharper slowdown in activity.

For now, the Board is choosing to wait.

But it is a pause that still carries an underlying tightening bias, rather than a clear pivot toward easing.

In practical terms, that leaves the cash rate anchored at 4.35 per cent for the foreseeable future, with the next move still uncertain.

For borrowers, it reinforces the reality that relief is not imminent.

And for the broader economy, it highlights the delicate balance the RBA is trying to strike, between bringing inflation back to target and avoiding an unnecessarily sharp slowdown in growth.

According to ANZ, it is a balance that is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain.

Joel Robinson

RBA to hold rates for "prolonged period" rather than hikes: ANZ

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/venturecrowd-property-projects">VentureCrowd</a> is down to the final Canopy Villa release at Cumulus Grand Villas in Carrara, as construction continues on the 59-residence gated community positioned above 100 hectares of natural savanna on the Gold Coast.

The remaining Canopy Villa forms part of one of four collections within the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>-designed community and has attracted interest from buyers seeking larger-format homes that combine privacy, security and low-maintenance living. Positioned within a private cul-de-sac and facing a protected black she oak forest, the four-bedroom villa includes a large private outdoor area suited to pet owners and families wanting more flexible space.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/cumulus-grand-villas-carrara-17-baltimore-court-carrara-qld-4211">Cumulus Grand Villas</a>, located at 17 Baltimore Court, comprises a mix of three and four-bedroom villas across the Skyline, Canopy, Savanna and Broadview collections. Prices currently range from $1.455 million to $1.895 million, with the final Canopy Villa priced from $1.825 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360477]

The Canopy Collection villas offer four bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and approximately 245 sqm of internal space, alongside double garages and landscaped private areas. Expansive glazing, open-plan living spaces and private balconies have been designed to maximise natural light and outlooks toward the surrounding savanna landscape.

Construction is now underway across the fully funded development, which VentureCrowd says has become an increasingly important consideration for buyers assessing off-the-plan opportunities on the Gold Coast. The project is being delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/devcon">Devcon Property Group</a>, which has operated in South East Queensland since 1993 and delivered more than 1,000 homes across the region.

VentureCrowd Director of Property David Whitting previously said the project responds to changing buyer priorities in the prestige Gold Coast market.

“Flexible floorplans have proven particularly relevant for purchasers aged between 40 and 65, including next home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Whitting said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360505]

The buyer profile at Cumulus has reflected that shift toward owner-occupier-driven demand. Stuart Towns and Tracey Loynes recently purchased a Canopy Villa, drawn to both the lifestyle offering and the flexibility the home provided for their next stage of living together.

The couple, who met three years ago, sold their Robina home earlier this year after identifying what they saw as strong long-term investment potential at Cumulus while remaining within the same Gold Coast market. The villa’s private backyard was a major drawcard for their dog Luna, while proximity to golf courses including Emerald Lakes also aligned with their lifestyle interests.

Beyond the residences themselves, the community has been planned around shared lifestyle and recreation amenities. The Infinity Terrace will include a 20-metre heated pool, barbecue facilities, alfresco dining spaces and elevated retreat areas overlooking the surrounding landscape. Walking trails, a private nature reserve, orchard and herb garden are also integrated into the masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360473]

BDA Architecture Director Darren Greenaway said the design approach was heavily influenced by the site’s outlook and secluded setting.

The practice sought to create what Greenaway described as a “little piece of paradise,” drawing inspiration from the elevated views, surrounding greenery and quiet location.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/carrara-qld-4211">Carrara</a> continues to attract buyers seeking larger homes within proximity to the coast but without direct beachfront pricing. Cumulus sits within easy reach of Broadbeach, Pacific Fair, Robina Town Centre and the M1, providing connections north to Brisbane and south toward the Gold Coast Airport and northern New South Wales.

The first stage of Cumulus Grand Villas is targeting completion in 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135663]

VentureCrowd nears sell-out of Canopy Collection at Cumulus Grand Villas in Carrara

Waverley Council has made a call that many councils have been reluctant to make publicly. Growth is coming, regardless of who controls it.

The release of the Bondi Junction Vision and Master Plan is less about whether the Eastern Suburbs’ primary centre will change, and more about how that change is shaped, funded, and ultimately experienced on the ground. Waverley Council has released a 100-page plan which is effectively the first comprehensive blueprint for Bondi Junction in over two decades, and in doing so, signals a clear shift in how councils are positioning themselves in the current planning environment.

For the past 18 months, the conversation across New South Wales has been dominated by the State Government’s Low and Mid-Rise Housing reforms and the emergence of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway. Both have created faster, more centralised avenues for development approvals, particularly in well-located, infrastructure-rich areas like Bondi Junction.

Waverley Council’s response has been to move early, and decisively.

Rather than react to individual proposals as they come through the HDA or broader State-led reforms, Council has sought to establish a clear, place-based framework that sets the terms for how Bondi Junction evolves. The underlying position is relatively straightforward: if densification is inevitable, it should be tied to infrastructure, public domain improvements, and a cohesive vision for the centre, not delivered piecemeal through ad hoc applications.

<img alt="bondi junction" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7f1f729c-ed99-4c6c-bf87-ffbce6991941" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-19%20at%209.58.16%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=ULX4OlXKjeJ5BvNCNGL86evgXCjCfMih" />

At its core, the document is attempting to reposition Bondi Junction from what it largely functions as today, a transport interchange anchored by a major retail centre, into something far more layered. The ambition is to transform it into what the plan describes as the “civic and cultural heart of Sydney’s East,” a place that is active beyond commuting hours and capable of supporting a broader mix of uses, experiences and communities.

That repositioning is built around four key ambitions.

The first is to create a true destination. Bondi Junction already attracts significant foot traffic, with more than 86,000 daily transport users and millions of annual retail visits, but much of that activity is transient. People pass through, rather than stay.

The Master Plan seeks to change that dynamic. It leans heavily into the idea of an “18-hour economy,” extending activity well beyond traditional retail hours through dining, cultural programming, events, and a more active night-time offering. This is not just about adding more hospitality venues, but about fundamentally shifting how the centre operates, from a daytime shopping destination to a place that functions across the full span of the day and into the evening.

Oxford Street Mall sits at the centre of that shift.

Long seen as underperforming relative to its potential, the Mall is identified as one of the key catalyst projects in the plan. It is to be reimagined as a day-to-night spine, combining retail, dining, wellness and cultural uses in a way that creates a continuous flow of activity. Outdoor dining, rooftop venues, laneway activation and a curated events program are all part of the strategy, alongside significant public domain upgrades that aim to improve comfort, safety and usability.

&nbsp;

The second ambition is to transform Bondi Junction into a world-class interchange.

Despite being one of the most heavily used transport nodes in Sydney, the current experience is fragmented. Connections between the station, Westfield, Oxford Street Mall and surrounding streets are often unclear, and major roads create physical barriers that disrupt pedestrian movement.

The Master Plan proposes a more seamless, people-focused network. That includes clearer pedestrian links, improved wayfinding, better integration between transport modes, and a rethinking of how arrival into the centre is experienced. The aim is to shift the perception of Bondi Junction from a place people move through, to a place they arrive in.

The third ambition focuses on greening and open space.

One of the more consistent pieces of community feedback throughout the Vision phase was the need for more greenery, better public spaces, and a more comfortable urban environment. Despite being surrounded by major parks, Bondi Junction itself has relatively limited accessible open space, with much of the public realm dominated by hard surfaces and traffic infrastructure.

The plan responds with a network of new and upgraded public spaces, increased tree canopy, and what it terms the “Parkline,” a green link connecting Waverley Park through to Centennial Park. This is not just about aesthetics. It is about addressing heat, improving liveability, and ensuring that increased density is matched by access to high-quality outdoor space.

The fourth ambition is perhaps the most important from a development perspective: growth that gives back.

Bondi Junction is already the primary location for new housing supply in the Waverley LGA, and that is expected to continue. The area carries a target of 2,400 new dwellings by 2029, with further growth projected beyond that as demand for well-located housing continues to rise. The Master Plan does not seek to limit that growth. Instead, it attempts to shape it.

New housing is to be concentrated around transport, with stepped building heights designed to protect the character of surrounding neighbourhoods. At the same time, the plan introduces a more explicit link between development uplift and public benefit. This is where value capture becomes central.

The document outlines a framework where increased development potential is tied to contributions that fund public domain improvements, community infrastructure, open space, and affordable housing. It is an approach that recognises that much of the transformation of Bondi Junction will be delivered by the private sector, but seeks to ensure that the benefits of that growth are shared more broadly. The Civic Precinct is a key part of that equation.

Leveraging Council-owned land, the plan proposes a consolidated civic and cultural hub centred around Ebley Street. This would include new community facilities, cultural spaces, and potentially a new Council Chambers, creating a focal point for civic life that currently does not exist in Bondi Junction at scale.

It is one of several catalyst projects identified in the Master Plan, alongside the Oxford Street Mall transformation. These projects are intended to anchor change, acting as early interventions that unlock broader investment across the precinct.

Importantly, the Master Plan is not just a design document. It includes a delivery framework that sets out how these ambitions are intended to be realised.

Council is explicit in acknowledging that it cannot deliver the transformation alone. Implementation will require coordination between State agencies, private developers, landowners and the community, with a mix of planning agreements, infrastructure contributions and direct delivery mechanisms used to fund and stage improvements over time.

The plan outlines a mix of short-term, medium-term and long-term actions, from immediate public domain upgrades and planning controls, through to larger-scale projects that will unfold over the next decade or more. In practical terms, the next 12 to 24 months will be the most important.

This is when the Master Plan will move through exhibition, refinement and eventual adoption. It is also the period in which Council will seek to embed the framework into its planning controls, giving it weight in the assessment of future development applications.

Council officers have indicated that once the Master Plan is in place, it could be used as a benchmark when assessing Housing Delivery Authority proposals, and potentially reduce the need for further HDA declarations within Bondi Junction. In effect, it is an attempt to bring planning control back to the local level, while still aligning with State housing targets.

That tension between State-led reform and local planning control is not unique to Waverley. It is playing out across Sydney.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

If delivered as intended, Bondi Junction will become denser, more active, and more complex. It will support more residents, more workers, and a wider range of uses, extending beyond its current retail core into a more layered urban environment.

“The civic and cultural heart of Sydney’s East”: Bondi Junction masterplan revealed

Toorak's dress circle St Georges Road, home to some of the city's priciest homes, is set for a rare new apartment development.

Blood Diamond Group, an entity tied to Tina Brandi, wife of David Brandi who has been a prolific bidder on The Block over the years, has filed plans for an ultra-exclusive development across an amalgamated 3,662 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/104-106-st-georges-road-toorak-vic-3142">104 and 106 St Georges Road</a>.

The proposal would replace two existing homes on the riverfront site with a five-level apartment building cascading down the steeply sloping land toward the Yarra River. Designed by Charles Wright Architects, the development has been carefully shaped around the site’s topography and river environs, with the upper levels stepping back to reduce visual bulk from both St Georges Road and the Yarra corridor.

Planning documents describe the proposal as “a site layout and building typology that is consistent with the emerging character of the area and which provides exceptional amenity for future residents without compromising that of neighbouring properties.”&nbsp;

<img alt="First look: Blood Diamond Group unveils riverfront apartment plans for Toorak Pavilion" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ea19a17e-7528-4fa8-b727-05f2f7c025e5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Toorak%20pavilion%20a_0.png?VersionId=rZ2IjdoUL_UrRl1sZ4wZHnQXbYUaEmUQ" />

The scheme comprises 12 apartments, including 10 three-bedroom residences, one one-bedroom apartment, and a substantial split-level five-bedroom penthouse. A 624 sqm communal rooftop terrace will crown the building, while three undercroft levels embedded into the hillside will accommodate apartments and basement parking.

The design leverages the site’s dramatic northern outlook across the Yarra River, with living areas and balconies oriented toward the water. A central atrium running the full height of the building is intended to draw natural light deep into the residences and improve internal amenity.

Landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo Design &amp; Landscape</a> will play a major role in softening the built form, particularly along the river edge where significant setbacks have been introduced. The proposal includes a minimum 30-metre setback from the Yarra River boundary, preserving a substantial landscaped buffer between the development and the waterway.

While a mature English Oak near the front of the site is proposed for removal, the plans retain a large English Elm closer to the riverfront, alongside other established vegetation in the lower section of the property.

<img alt="First look: Blood Diamond Group unveils riverfront apartment plans for Toorak Pavilion" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ed3bf19b-5bc7-482f-bde7-41f709a13c3a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Toorak%20pavilion%20b.png?VersionId=SG_kBGu4rOaSPY8FtVcmPJfSCrstuOfg" />

Architecturally, the building adopts strong horizontal forms with expansive glazing and curved balcony edges facing the river. Planning documents note the upper levels “adopt a receding form” to ensure the building responds appropriately to the Yarra River environs overlay controls.&nbsp;

The surrounding streetscape is characterised by large contemporary homes embedded into the hillside, many presenting as modest one or two-storey forms to the street before expanding toward the river frontage below. The planning report notes this established pattern heavily influenced the massing strategy for Toorak Pavilion.&nbsp;

Until the recent sale of the landmark Clendon Road mansion Coonac for around $130 million, St Georges Road held the state's most expensive home, the $80,000,088 derelict "Ghost House" mansion that was bought by crypto king Ed Craven.&nbsp;

Blair House, also on St Georges Road, sold for $74.5 million in 2022.

First look: Toorak Pavilions slated for dress circle St Georges Road

Six months after a development site on Kangaroo Point’s Shafston Avenue sold for $6.55 million, plans have been lodged for a 23-storey apartment tower.

A company named JMT Mega Capital, understood to be interstate investors when the 1,222 sqm double block traded late last year through Patona Property, is proposing an 84-apartment development in place of the existing low-rise buildings.

The slender tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/212-220-shafston-avenue-east-brisbane-qld-4169">212–220 Shafston Avenue</a>, overlooking the Brisbane River, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/aplus-design-group">Aplus Design Group</a>. It will comprise a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments above six basement levels, topped by rooftop resident amenities.

<img alt="First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7e17ba9e-553e-42ef-92b6-22081671521a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/podium_3.png?VersionId=hlVUf99vrOjUs.vhQs0qV0DhOncUy9T8" />

The development has been designed as a vertically articulated tower with recessed balconies, curved façades and planted edges intended to soften its scale within the evolving Shafston Avenue skyline. In the submitted Urban Design Report, Aplus Design Group said the tower had been “shaped with a slender vertical expression, articulated façades, recessed balcony zones, integrated planting and a clearly defined podium relationship, helping to reduce perceived bulk and create a more elegant contribution to the Shafston Avenue streetscape and broader Kangaroo Point skyline.”

The scheme comprises 84 apartments, including 25 one-bedroom units, 34 two-bedroom apartments and 25 three-bedroom residences. A total of 104 car spaces are proposed across six basement levels, including resident, visitor and accessible parking.

Residents will have access to rooftop communal open space and shared amenities, while the development also incorporates deep planting zones and subtropical landscaping throughout the podium and tower levels. The project includes 35 per cent communal space coverage across the site and a 17.5 per cent deep soil zone allocation to support urban greening outcomes.

The application exceeds the mapped building height under the Kangaroo Point Peninsula Neighbourhood Plan and is being assessed under Brisbane City Council’s impact assessment pathway. The design team argues the additional height is supported by the site’s strategic inner-city location, existing high-density zoning, and proximity to transport and employment hubs.

“The design has been developed to make better use of a well-serviced urban site within an established high-density residential setting, while improving the street presentation and overall quality of the public realm interface,” the report states.

<img alt="First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1ab44b1e-ff45-4bf3-8da8-8aa0cd79db33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_10.png?VersionId=tSxeGekZOqj1e9g3PEn_yFoC3taKDp3U" />

The proposal adds to a growing pipeline of apartment developments reshaping Kangaroo Point ahead of the 2032 Brisbane Olympic Games, with demand continuing to strengthen for new housing supply in well-connected inner-city precincts.

Mosaic has nearly sold out its under-construction <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-bedford-by-mosaic-16-30-prospect-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Bedford by Mosaic</a>&nbsp;and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-carter-by-mosaic-77-linton-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Carter</a>,&nbsp;while Pikos recently completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/skye-residences-by-pikos-kangaroo-point-8-river-terrace-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Skye Residences</a> nearby. Pikos is also delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gaia-kangaroo-point-108-lambert-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Gaia</a>, over 230 three- and four-bedroom apartments on Lambert Street.

First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point apartment tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct

Housing Value

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Pinned to the wall beside my computer is a report I wrote in June 2015 entitled “Top 20 worst predictions about Australian property markets”.
It contains a stunning line-up of doomed forecasts from the previous six or seven years about our property markets. They all have two things in common: they all predicted massive price decline, and none of them was correct.
But they’re still out there and media never tires of them. Forecasts of price collapse are a dime a dozen in mainstream media. 
In many cases, I suspect, the forecasters don’t really believe their own statements. The objective is to generate publicity, truth notwithstanding. Apart from anything else, no one (apart from me) ever checks to see how the forecasts of the past have turned out, so the fallout for false prophets is zero.
So if American spruiker Harry S Dent pops up in Australia next year and predicts a 50 percent collapse in property values, he’ll get masses of free publicity for his seminar tour or book launch, despite having made that prediction twice before (in 2011 and 2014) and been proven wrong by subsequent events.
Predictions of real estate Armageddon in Australia have become common. One of the most recent was widely reported around Australia in early September. This headline appeared in The Australian: “Australia six weeks from a housing collapse, US report warns.” Time is well and truly up on that forecast and we do not appear to have a housing collapse.
The Washington-based International Strategic Studies Association said: “We estimate that Australia has about six weeks or so to turn this situation around, otherwise there would be a massive hit on property valuations and the building trades.”
Its president delivered quite a rant on the subject. You have to wonder why serious newspapers would report such nonsense, particularly given the failure of other similar predictions since the start of the century.
Here’s another example: in October 2015 the Sydney Morning Herald made a huge front-page splash with this headline: “7.5 percent - house prices tipped to slump.” The 7.5 percent was in huge type and dominated the page.
The article said “Australian house prices” would fall 7.5 percent in 2016 and the decline risked causing a recession. It quoted reports from several investment banks – Macquarie, Credit Suisse and Bank of America Merrill Lynch – which all made dire forecasts.
One said property investment in Australia was “riskier than the equity market”, especially in Sydney. Another said the RBA would be forced to lift interest rates in 2016 to tackle high inflation. How wrong did they get that?
When will media ever learn that economists are not real estate specialists and seldom get it right when they drift outside their comfort zones (getting it wrong on the economy) and delve into property prognostication? They regard Australia as a single property market and their understanding of the different market dynamics around Australia could be written on the back of a postage stamp – in crayon.
Other media outlets made big of the same material. The news.com.au website ran this headline: “Five months until property bubble bursts”. The article began: “FIVE months. That’s how long before house prices start to fall, according to the latest major investment bank to call the peak in Australia’s housing cycle. ‘Credit growth, auction clearance rates, house prices, settlement volumes and the dollar value of settlements are all showing signs of slowing, albeit from lofty levels,’ analysts from investment bank Macquarie said in a note today, The Australian reports.”
In November last year the Australian Financial Review ran a major article based on the forecasts of ANZ economists, who predicted that Australian house prices would fall in 2016 by “less than 10 percent”. There, again, we had that fatal formula for failed forecasts: economists, a perspective that Australia is a single market and a gloomy outlook based on a misreading of the signals.
Around the same time, the clown prince of failed forecasting Professor Steve Keen was at it again, still predicting a property crash – as he famously did in 2008 and every year since – and once gain getting it wrong.
Also around the same time, Smart Property Investment ran this headline: “Outer suburb markets could halve in value”, referring to the outer ring suburbs of Sydney. A year later, it’s pretty clear than suburban values have not dropped 50 percent.
In January this year the same magazine reported more dodgy predictions from economists under the headline “Investors warned about looming price declines”. Leading that particular charge was the man with worst record of all in real estate forecasting, AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver.
Oliver is probably the only guy who has made negative forecasts about housing prices than Steve Keen, and with an equivalent track record of success. It was Oliver who famously declared in 2005 that there would be no growth in Australian property prices any time in the next 10 years. Oh dear.
He’s made many similar statements over the years, with the same level of success. But he was back for more in January this year, stating that the Sydney market had become so stretched that prices were likely to fall. 
Also mentioned in that SPI article was Fitch Ratings, which claimed that “house price growth is set to decline significantly in 2016, with the possibility of entering negative territory …”
According to Fitch Ratings Australia managing director Ben McCarthy, the downturn would be caused by “reduced demand in Sydney and Melbourne as population growth declines and the market reaches limits of affordability and investor demand and interest recedes".
If there’s a group that has even less success at calling property market outcomes than bank economists, it’s the ratings agencies whose track record is just dismal – and whose motivations are particularly shallow.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Forecasts of housing price collapse are a dime a dozen

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<div>New figures from SQM Research predict an acceleration in dwelling price rises in Sydney and Melbourne for the 2017 calendar year.</div>
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 SQM's Boom and Bust Report said the housing market is currently at its second most overvalued point on record, driven by a combination of factors including loose monetary policy, strong population growth and booming local economies, especially in New South Wales and Victoria.</div>
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<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2016/11/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-11%20at%209.46.04%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2016/11/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-11%20at%209.46.04%20AM.png" alt=""></div>
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<div>SQM managing director Louis Christopher said the capital city average forecast is for dwelling prices to rise 6 percent to 10 percent. </div>
  "SQM Research forecasts an acceleration of dwelling price rises in Sydney and Melbourne with Sydney dwelling prices forecasted to rise 11 percent to 16 percent for the 2017 calendar year, while Melbourne is forecasted to rise by 10 percent to 15 percent," he said.  </div>
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"The forecasts assume a stable interest rate environment, a stable exchange rate and no further home lending restrictions by APRA. If lending rates are cut again by the RBA, Sydney and Melbourne prices could rise by up to 18 percent for the year as forecasted by SQM’s “Scenario 2 outlook”. </div>
<div> "But the end of 2017 will see both Sydney and Melbourne markets dangerously overvalued, paving the way for a possible correction in 2018."</div>
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Dwelling price rises to ramp up in Sydney, Melbourne in 2017: SQM

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GUEST OBSERVER
The solution to Sydney’s affordable housing problems is contained in the existing legislation and recommendations of the Affordable Housing Taskforce as outlined on the Department of Planning’s website.
The Affordable Housing Taskforce report to the Coalition Government in 2012 clearly stated that the private sector will not enter the affordable housing market without incentives (Action 5).
The Affordable Housing Taskforce report said ‘These incentives have been particularly attractive where the bonus represents significant value’(Cl 4.12). 
The Taskforce report supported the principle of the Affordable Rental Housing State Environmental Planning Policy (SEPP) as a good way to generate affordable housing.
The Urban Taskforce, representing property developers, has presented to the NSW Government a clear strategy to produce 40,000 affordable homes over a 10 year period by slightly changing the NSW Government’s current incentive in the Affordable Rental Housing SEPP.
The current Affordable Rental Housing SEPP is based on rental housing being for a period of 10 years through ‘a restriction on the occupation certificate against the title of the property’ (Cl17) and the Urban Taskforce proposal uses exactly the same definition.
Since the Affordable Rental Housing SEPP was introduced a relatively small number of affordable homes have been produced because the incentives have been too low. With a lifting in the incentives thousands of affordable housing homes can be built in metropolitan Sydney.
The Coalition Government’s Taskforce raised concerns that inclusionary zoning would only work where land value was high. ‘Inclusionary zone policies have been shown to work most effectively in high value land locations and have limited application in lower cost markets.’ (Cl 4.14). The Urban Taskforce approach is an incentive that is adjusted to all suburbs irrespective of land value.
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It seems that the approach now preferred by the Greater Sydney Commission is to force inclusionary zoning as a tax on new housing development. While this may work where land value is high, like Vaucluse, it is unlikely that the suburbs that really need affordable housing will benefit.
The Urban Taskforce is keen to work with the NSW Government to generate thousands of new affordable homes across Sydney. To simply force a new tax on the development industry in Sydney will act as a disincentive on the private sector to provide homes. By default it will be the NSW Government who will need to provide massive numbers of affordable homes.
Chris Johnson is chief executive officer of property development industry group Urban Taskforce and can be contacted <a href="https://www.urbantaskforce.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&amp;view=article&amp;id=97&amp;Itemid=126#.Vdaart55dFI" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Affordable housing solution for Sydney is contained in Planning Department Policies: Chris Johnson

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House values continue to increase faster than units but the gap in capital gain has closed over the last few months, according to CoreLogic RP Data's Hedonic Home Value Index for February.
Over the year, house values increased 7.8 percent, units 6.2 percent. According to CoreLogic RP Data head of research Tim Lawless, over the current growth phase, house values have increased by a total of 33.3% compared to a 22.8% total rise in unit values.
“The CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics forecasts for 2016 indicate the pace of appreciation in Melbourne home values is likely to remain more resilient to a slowdown this year, while cities like Brisbane, Hobart and Canberra are set to see an improvement in the growth trend.
"The forecast seems to be evident so far in these numbers.
“Overall, the latest results provide further evidence of a controlled moderation in the pace of home value appreciation.”
House values continued to increase at a faster annual pace than unit values, however the gap in capital gain performance has narrowed over recent months. 
 
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po-LsXgBTHBmX

House, unit capital gain gap closes: CoreLogic RP Data

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<div class="stream-item-header">The latest housing finance figures are out and CoreLogic RP Data's senior research analyst Cameron Kusher has tweeted the value of housing commitments by components.
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Cameron quickly highlighted the growth in the investors six month average on his twitter page <a href="https://twitter.com/cmkusher" target="_blank">@cmkusher</a>
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<div class="stream-item-header">Property Observer will be covering it all in greater detail as the commentary flows.</div>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Tweet of the day: Cameron Kusher talks housing figures 

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The Australian Residential Market September 2015 report from Propell has found land subdivisions are adversely affected by new lending criteria, rental vacancy rates are increasing in most cities and foreign investment in housing will strengthen due to lower AUD.
It noted 2016 may witness a combination of slowing economic growth and rising interest rates, bringing the threat of a recession if non-mining sectors do not respond sufficiently to a lower exchange rate.
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"In 2016, the RBA may find itself in the position of having to start increasing the cash rate, suggesting that we are now at, or close to, the bottom of the cycle," the report said.
"The long term outlook is for rates to start increasing. As far as property investors are concerned, there has already been a de facto increase, as banks stop discounting investment home loans and start requiring more equity."
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mick.cee-iDmgDDAmu8

Long term outlook to increase interest rates: Propell

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Geoff Baldwin of RE/MAX Lighthouse Realty Western Australia suggests the time is right for opportunistic buyers in Western Australia looking to secure value.
As the real estate market moves into the annual Spring/Summer resurgence there remains a window of opportunity to take advantage of some great buys, especially in the middle to upper price ranges with the Northern suburbs standing out according to RE/MAX WA managing director, Geoff Baldwin.
“Homes in suburbs like Ocean Reef, Connolly, Iluka, Currambine, Burns Beach and Jindalee are all selling well below what they would cost to buy land and build and the added bonus is that the owners of these properties have invariably added extra value by way of pools, pergolas, solar boosters, etc that they tend to discount at sale time”, he said.
“It is also a fact that people selling lower priced properties are not having to drop their prices by near the percentage that is happening further up the market and this means they have a window of opportunity to upgrade that will only remain open for a limited time.
“Properties along the coast that were selling for over a million dollars are now going for high eight hundreds to early nine hundreds and buyers are now really beginning to recognise this value.
“Upgraders should not hesitate to consider making offers subject to the sale of their present property provided the owners of the one they are buying are willing to give them time to sell however this will always depend on how saleable their current home is made.
“This irregularity in the market is primed for upgraders to take action however it will not exist for a long period because, as the weather heats up so too will the market with the result that stock levels will reduce and prices will bounce back quickly”, Mr Baldwin said.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Price drop opportunity in Western Australia

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Capital city home values increased 2.8% in July with national home values 11.1% higher now compared to the same period last year.
According to the CoreLogic RP Data July Home Value Indices 2015 the total aggregated value of Australian housing has increased by just over half a trillion dollars over the past twelve months. 
Over the three months to July, Melbourne home values increased 6.1%, although Melbourne houses suffered the lowest rental yields of 3% and units 4.1%
CoreLogic RP Data’s head of research Tim Lawless said the strongest growth conditions outside of Sydney and Melbourne have been in Brisbane where dwelling values were 3.9% higher over the year.  
“While Sydney and Melbourne values continue to boom, the next best performing city, Brisbane, has seen dwelling values rise by just 3.9% over the past twelve months. Based on the median dwelling price, Sydney prices are now 72% higher than Brisbane’s and Melbourne’s are 24% higher,” Mr Lawless said.  
“Across every capital city except Hobart and Darwin, we are seeing detached housing outperform units for capital gain, with house values up 11.6% compared with a 7.2% increase in unit values over the past year. The differential is most pronounced in Melbourne where house values have surged 12.3% higher over the year compared with a 4.8% rise in unit values. 
"With value growth once again accelerating across Sydney and Melbourne, the market evolution in mortgage lending policies will will provide a timely test for housing demand, particularly from investors. The combined effect of tighter lending parameters with more focus on serviceability and low LVR’s, potentially higher mortgage rates for investment loans as well as limitations on the pace of investment lending imposed by APRA on Australia’s banks should conspire to slow investor demand in the market." 
Sydney's 3.3% rise in dwelling value for the month, delivered an 18.4% rise for the year - the highest rate of growth in the city since 2002, according to Tim Lawless.
"The Sydney dwelling value is now 40% higher than its previous peak," he noted.
 
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