A landmark former orphanage site in Surrey Hills could be transformed into a new residential community under plans lodged by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/antipodean-land-developments">Antipodean Land Developments</a> that would deliver 76 apartments and townhouses while restoring some of the suburb's most significant heritage buildings.

The burgeoninng Melbourne-based developer has submitted plans for the 9,158 sqm site at 1 Kent Road and 24 Durham Road, home to the former St Joseph's Home for Destitute Children, a historic institutional complex dating back to the late 19th century. The proposal seeks to adaptively reuse several heritage buildings while introducing two new four-storey residential buildings set within extensive landscaped grounds.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a> and Kerstin Thompson Architects, the project has been conceived as a contemporary residential village embedded within a restored heritage precinct. The development team describes the design approach as "The Village in the Garden," with new buildings positioned among mature landscaping by OCULUS and significant heritage structures.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="44ec8c1b-c0b6-44ae-859e-5811b3e6a023" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%281%29.png?VersionId=p.p1_KFh4iQoV4nisdnPfQBAsWNi7m79" />

The proposal would deliver 76 dwellings comprising a mix of apartments and duplex-style residences, significantly increasing housing supply on one of the largest privately held residential landholdings in Surrey Hills. The development includes 127 car spaces, 24 bicycle spaces and more than 1,000 sqm of communal amenity, with the existing chapel building earmarked for conversion into resident facilities.

According to the planning submission, the project centres on the restoration and adaptive reuse of the site's most significant heritage assets, including the original c.1889 St Joseph's building, the chapel designed by architect Augustus Andrew Fritsch, and the historic brick perimeter walls and entry gates. The proposal also incorporates the retention of other contributory buildings including the former infirmary and school building.

Tract Consultants, in the planning report accompanying the application, said the scheme had been shaped through extensive heritage analysis and design development.

"The shared vision for the Site by the project team has culminated in a scheme which successfully breathes life back into a historic site while delivering upon the objectives of Victoria's Housing Statement in a carefully curated and contextually responsive manner."

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7263b7d8-95ea-400f-9531-6ca7d22c3c33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design%20%282%29.png?VersionId=4cR1tiWOsDpgxEOwZi5vVFcyvvOsYkIE" />

The proposal is being assessed under Victoria's Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway. As part of the application, three per cent of the project's residential development cost would be contributed to the Social Housing Growth Fund. The development would also provide a diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom residences targeting a broader range of buyers than typically found in Surrey Hills' detached housing market.

Sustainability initiatives include an anticipated 66 per cent BESS score, natural cross-ventilation to 80 per cent of apartments, 28 per cent deep soil landscaping and a canopy cover outcome exceeding local planning requirements. The proposal also sets aside more than 1,083 sqm for communal indoor and outdoor resident amenity spaces.

<img alt="First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="33fad46f-fe26-4d0a-acfd-6b776e1c6a3d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Untitled%20design.png?VersionId=D9F6WVSyYCtGvSUmith35LRp6R7PQkw_" />

Planning documents describe the property as one of the largest underutilised residential sites in Surrey Hills, arguing it presents a rare opportunity to introduce "missing middle" housing in an established inner-eastern suburb while preserving and revitalising a significant heritage precinct.

Antipodean Land Developments has built a reputation for design-focused residential projects across Melbourne, particularly in the medium-density sector. Previous developments include Neighbourhood in Brunswick East, delivered with Breathe Architecture, and Balfe Park Lane, designed by Kerstin Thompson Architects.

They've been very active in site acquisition as they build out their future development pipeline. They recently launched Thornubury House, 45 apartments above a mix of commercial, retail, and food and beverage tenancies, and have plans for a boutique project in Fitzroy and another <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/antipodean-plan-apartments-for-deepdenes-missing-middle-on-whitehorse-road">"missing middle" project</a> on Deepdene's Whitehorse Road.

Joel Robinson

First look: Antipodean Land Developments plans heritage-led apartment community in Surrey Hills

Developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/auyin-property-development">Auyin</a> is the latest to turn to the Victorian Government's Development Facilitation Program in an effort to secure approval for its long-planned, mixed-use project in Elsternwick.

In 2018, Auyin lodged plans with Glen Eira City Council for a 14-storey building, however Council approved a reduced eight-storey scheme. A subsequent VCAT appeal in 2019 upheld the eight-storey height limit.

The project was later amended to nine storeys, but Auyin is now seeking to revive something closer to its original vision. The developer argues that the planning context has evolved significantly over the past decade, particularly within the Elsternwick Activity Centre, where higher-density development has increasingly been encouraged along Glen Huntly Road.

The proposal would transform the 1,239 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/7-12-horne-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">7-15 Horne Street</a>, opposite Elsternwick Railway Station, into a 13-storey residential and retail development designed by CBG Architects, with 40 apartments

The site currently comprises three commercial properties.

<img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5f465dd4-509b-4082-a669-0253b313914b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20podium.png?VersionId=72frWi0SmQ5AVJ3ARRhX5ILUYObhTm7x" />

The proposed apartment mix comprises 25 two-bedroom and 15 three-bedroom residences above 200 sqm of retail space at ground level. Residents would have access to a 90 sqm wellness facility, a 351 sqm communal indoor and outdoor terrace on the third level, and extensive landscaped areas throughout the development. A publicly accessible 135 sqm plaza would be created on the north-east corner of the site, providing seating, landscaping, and a new gathering space adjoining Horne Street.

The design adopts a four-storey podium that references the finer-grain character of the surrounding streetscape, with the upper tower recessed behind generous setbacks on all boundaries.

<img alt="First look: 13-storey mixed-use tower planned for Elsternwick activity centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e637e763-2abc-4c34-a0aa-5c7ad36fae18" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/elsternwick%20open.png?VersionId=J1AoOpZgTyaF.KeeFSX6lMjEScX8KKRi" />

A key element of the proposal is the reconfiguration and widening of the surrounding laneways. Vehicle access would be retained from Lois Lane, with upgraded pedestrian connections linking Ross Street and Horne Street. The development would provide 58 residential car spaces, two retail car spaces, and 52 bicycle spaces across two basement levels and ground-floor facilities.

Architecturally, the building draws inspiration from the established character of Elsternwick Village. The façade combines dark charcoal brickwork, textured concrete, bronze-toned metal detailing, and extensive planting integrated into podium and tower levels. The design also incorporates a chamfered corner treatment and publicly accessible plaza intended to strengthen pedestrian activity around the station precinct.

Elsternwick's last new development completion was&nbsp;EVA Elsternwick by Pitard late last year. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/milieu-property">Milieu</a> is working away on its nature-led neighbourhood, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/elsternwick-gardens-by-milieu-8-gordon-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">Elsternwick Gardens</a>, on Gordon Street, with its first stage expected to complete next year.

First look: Auyin seeks mixed-use apartment project in growing Elsternwick Activity Centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/otium-parkdale-123-125-como-parade-east-parkdale-vic-3195">Otium Parkdale</a>, the 13-residence boutique development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/huxtable-property">Huxtable Property</a>, has entered its final stages of delivery, with completion expected within the coming month and more than half of the residences sold.

The Como Parade East project is nearing the finish line at a time when opportunities to purchase new apartments in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parkdale-vic-3195">Parkdale</a> remain exceptionally limited. Fewer than 10 per cent of dwellings in the bayside suburb are apartments, making developments like Otium a relatively rare addition to a market traditionally dominated by detached housing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5427]

The three-level development comprises 13 residences, including ten two-bedroom apartments and three larger three-bedroom homes, all positioned above a secure basement car park.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/almeida-architects">Almeida Architects</a> with a strong connection to its coastal surroundings, Otium combines red brick, exposed concrete and dark metal detailing with integrated landscaping and greenery. Expansive glazing, generous balconies and terraces have been incorporated throughout the design to maximise natural light and reinforce indoor-outdoor living.

Inside, the residences feature engineered European oak flooring, natural and reconstituted stone benchtops, Bosch kitchen appliances, ducted heating and cooling, lift access and secure entry systems. The larger three-bedroom residences on the upper level have been designed with house-like proportions, while the two-bedroom apartments prioritise functionality, flexibility and low-maintenance living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134974 project_image_fid=5421]

The project is now in its final stages, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/labco">Labco</a> completing the remaining landscaping and external finishing works following the completion of the residences' interiors.

Otium's location within the heart of Parkdale continues to underpin its appeal. Residents will be just steps from local cafés, restaurants, shops and the newly elevated Parkdale Station, while the beach is less than a kilometre away.

With the project tracking ahead of schedule, buyers can currently secure a residence with a five per cent deposit and benefit from settlement terms of up to eight months. The advanced stage of construction also provides buyers with the opportunity to walk through the near-complete residences and experience the quality and finishes firsthand ahead of completion.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134974]

Otium Parkdale enters final month before completion as rare apartment opportunity nears sellout

A new boutique apartment development is entering the market in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chermside-qld-4032">Chermside</a>, with Brisbane-based developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ausdev">Ausdev</a> bringing 33 residences to a well-connected pocket of Brisbane's north.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/parkdrive-apartments-chermside-25-sammells-drive-chermside-qld-4032">Parkdrive Apartments</a>, at 25 Sammells Drive, will comprise a mix of one- and two-bedroom residences positioned within walking distance of Westfield Chermside, The Prince Charles Hospital, and Bradbury Park.

Established in 1989, Ausdev has a long-standing presence across both development and construction, with Parkdrive Apartments representing its latest residential project in Brisbane's northern suburbs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363778]

The development has been designed around open-plan living and natural light, with residences featuring stone benchtops, timber cabinetry, BOSCH appliances, and private balconies that extend the living areas outdoors.

Kitchens are positioned as the centrepiece of the homes, incorporating natural material palettes and integrated appliances, while bathrooms have been designed with a focus on functionality and understated finishes.

Residents will have access to a communal barbecue and entertaining area on Level 3, providing shared outdoor space within the development. Secure parking and lift access are also incorporated into the building.

The project will deliver a limited collection of 33 apartments, with one-bedroom residences priced from $749,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152125 project_image_fid=363782]

Beyond the building itself, the location places residents within easy reach of several of Chermside's key amenities. Bradbury Park is around 350 metres away, while Westfield Chermside is approximately 1.3 kilometres from the site. The Prince Charles Hospital is located within 750 metres, and the Chermside Bus Interchange is around 1.5 kilometres away, providing connections across Brisbane.

Parkdrive Apartments adds to the growing residential pipeline in Chermside, a suburb that continues to evolve as a major retail, healthcare, and transport hub for Brisbane's north.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152125]

Ausdev introduces boutique Parkdrive Apartments to Chermside's growing centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/skymark-group">Skymark</a>'s boutique Cronulla development Solis has secured a 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy through Resilience Insurance, providing buyers of the 16-residence building on Ewos Parade with structural and waterproofing protection that extends a decade beyond the building's completion.

Currently under construction and due for completion in late 2027, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/solis-cronulla-8-ewos-parade-cronulla-nsw-2230">Solis</a> is one of a small number of new developments in the Sutherland Shire to carry Resilience LDI coverage, a distinction that carries increasing weight as buyer confidence in the off-the-plan sector continues to be shaped by how developers stand behind their product.

Latent Defects Insurance, which entered the Australian market in 2022 when Resilience Insurance was approved to offer the cover, protects buyers against major structural or waterproofing defects for ten years post-completion. Unlike traditional statutory warranties, it operates as a first-resort policy, if a covered defect arises, the insurer responds directly, without the buyer needing to pursue the builder or developer through a lengthy claims process.

Resilience Insurance CEO Corey Nugent has noted that the product addresses something fundamental to the new apartment market.

"The overarching feedback from prospective buyers in the new development space is that they want more confidence and assurances around the quality of the build," Nugent says.

"Resilience Insurance Latent Defects Insurance not only gives them complete peace of mind for 10 years, but it shows the developer they are buying from is standing by their product."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370898]

For Solis, the Resilience LDI policy adds a meaningful layer of accountability to an already considered project. The development comprises nine two-bedroom and seven three-bedroom residences, including one dual-level three-bedroom apartment, across a five-storey building on Ewos Parade, positioned between Shelly Beach and South Cronulla.

Garden apartments connect directly to private landscaped courtyards, while upper-level homes capture beach views to the east from level four and above.&nbsp;

All 16 residences include at least one balcony or courtyard, and select apartments on the upper floors feature bar areas and secondary flexible living spaces.

Hiba Sander, Managing Director of Skymark, says Solis offers a rare balance, nestled between the quiet beauty of secluded beaches and the lively charm of South Cronulla's esplanade.

"It's a place to choose your pace and live gracefully, seaside'," Sander says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370900]

The architecture, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ida-design-group">IDA Design Group</a>'s Michael Trinh, draws from the natural erosion patterns of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/cronulla-nsw-2230">Cronulla</a>'s sandstone headlands, translating the organic forms of the coastline into soft curves, pavilion-style massing, and a material palette chosen for longevity in a salt-tinged environment.&nbsp;

Textured natural stone, soft renders, and timber-look battens reference the tones of the surrounding cliffs, while the building has been oriented to maximise natural light and passive ventilation, with primary living spaces facing north and east to capture morning sun and sea breezes.

"At Solis, our aim was to create architecture that feels quietly confident, grounded in natural materials like stone and timber, and elevated by light and landscape," Trinh says.&nbsp;

"The buildings are designed to sit gently within their coastal surrounds, with expansive glazing and abundant greenery creating a seamless dialogue between inside and out."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370897]

Interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hot-black">Hot Black</a> carry the same material language through to every room. Kitchens feature integrated Gaggenau appliances, sculpted stone benchtops, and Lo &amp; Co joinery, while bathrooms feature natural stone, timber, and brushed metal finishes.&nbsp;

Hot Black Founder and Design Director Sophie Safrin describes the intent as one of considered restraint: "At Solis, every detail has been thoughtfully considered to create a timeless coastal retreat, calm, refined, and effortlessly liveable. From natural finishes to seamless indoor-outdoor flow, Solis offers a quiet elegance that's deeply connected to its surroundings.

The landscape, designed by Julian Brady of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/sitedesignstudios">Site Design Studios</a>, treats green space as an integral part of the resident experience rather than an afterthought.&nbsp;

"Gentle curves and layered native plantings mirror the ebb and flow of the ocean," Julian Brady says, "creating a serene connection between architecture and place."&nbsp;

Coco Republic has provided bespoke furniture packages tailored to the project's coastal palette.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150499 project_image_fid=370899]

Skymark has an established track record in the Sutherland Shire, with a portfolio spanning Cronulla, Woolooware and Burraneer that includes Isla, Sylva, Bask, Shells, Sula and Mist. Securing LDI on Solis reflects a broader shift in how the developer is positioning its buildings to buyers, at a time when Resilience Insurance expects the policy to become mandatory in New South Wales by 2028.

Sales at Solis are launching soon through Ray White Projects, with an official event scheduled for 11 June. Enquire for more information.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150499]

Skymark takes out 10-year Resilience Insurance LDI at Solis Cronulla

Housing Supply

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Rental rates fell across the combined capital cities over August with the exception of Melbourne, Darwin and Canberra according to CoreLogic's latest Rent Review. 
The combined capital city drop was 0.3 percent month on month
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Cameron Kusher, CoreLogic research analyst said weaker rental market conditions are expected to continue as overall housing supply grows.
"Over the past year rental rates have fallen by -0.5 percent and are now -1.4 percent lower than when they peaked back in May 2015," he said.
"In contrast, we saw capital city rental rates increase by 0.7 percent at this time last year. 
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“As long as wages growth continues to stagnate, coupled with historically high levels of new dwelling construction and slowing population growth, landlords won’t have much scope to increase rents. On the flipside, renters are now in a much better position to negotiate.
"There is the potential for a flight of tenant demand towards higher quality tenancy options in newer buildings. 
“It may be more difficult for owners of older units with fewer amenities to compete with better located and facilitated new unit stock, particularly if there is little pricing differential."
Over the past 12 months, rental rates have increased in Melbourne (+2.9 percent), Hobart (+6.8 percent) and Canberra (+2.6 percent). Rental rates are unchanged over the year in Sydney and have fallen in Brisbane (-1.1 percent), Adelaide (-0.3 percent), Perth (-9.4 percent) and Darwin (-14.1 percent). Melbourne, Hobart and Canberra have each recorded stronger rental growth over the past year compared to the previous year.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Rental rates across Australia’s combined capital cities drop in August

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Housing Industry Association urges the Federal Government and Opposition to commit to actions targeting housing supply constraints in their election platforms. 
Providing affordable homes to house our growing, ageing and increasingly diverse population requires more than one line references about increasing supply.
Providing affordable homes that cater for families large and small, in capital cities and regional centres, in city centres and their suburbs requires vision and planning.
We don’t have a national housing plan.
Successive Federal Governments have failed to coalesce the roles, responsibilities and endeavours of state, territory and local governments. Governments at all levels, and their well-intentioned agencies, work outside of a national housing strategy. They don’t act in unison, towards a national goal.
It’s like attempting to piece together a jigsaw puzzle without knowing the image or landscape.
With an ageing workforce and mounting pressure on publicly funded services, the Federal Government cannot simply dismiss housing affordability as a supply problem for the states to solve.
An incoming Federal Government must do better. It needs to provide national leadership and vision, and the resources to support better targeted initiatives to increase the supply of both private and public housing.
Committing to a dedicated Federal Minister for Housing, within Cabinet, and establishing a national land planning council to provide national monitoring and reporting of land supply across each stage of the supply pipeline are high on the HIA’s list of imperatives. 
Instigating a holistic inquiry into the added cost of housing caused by taxes, excessive regulations and delays in planning assessments is also a priority for the housing industry. 
Graham Wolfe is chief executive industry policy and media, HIA and can be contacted <a href="https://hia.com.au/en/about.aspx" target="_blank">here</a>. 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

New housing fuels affordability: HIA's Graham Wolfe

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The national shortage of housing in Australia is nearly 250,000 dwellings, lower than previously estimated, but still a long way from being in structural surplus, according to ANZ Research's latest Economic Insight.
The study forecasts that housing construction and underlying housing demand will see a modest unwinding of the current housing shortage in coming years. This easing will, however, challenge the short-term support to dwelling sales and price growth from the underlying supply-demand imbalance in some markets.
Underlying housing imbalances don’t tend to be important in explaining short-term changes in dwelling prices. A strong increase in the national underlying housing shortage, however, has provided fundamental support to dwelling prices over the past decade, it says.
Foreign investment in Australian housing has increased sharply in recent years, providing a boost to new housing construction. However, the net impact of foreign investment on the supply of housing, and the housing market balance, is difficult to quantify due to limited reliable information about the number of unoccupied foreign investor dwellings.
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Housing construction booming; population growth slowing
Australian housing construction is booming but population growth has slowed, prompting speculation by some commentators that Australia’s housing market has, or will soon, have a surplus of housing. The market and media are flooded with views on the state of ‘balance’ in the Australian housing market. These views conclude that housing is either in surplus, balance or shortage depending on whether ‘the market’ refers to: the mortgage/sales market; annual population and housing construction flows; or long-term housing requirements and housing construction, in other words, what we estimate as the underlying housing market balance.
Analysis of demographics and housing construction shows that in the 20 years to 2005 Australia’s annual population growth fluctuated modestly around 218,000 people (1¼% y/y on average). Between 2006 and 2008, however, annual population growth increased sharply, to a peak of 460,000 people (2.2% y/y) in December 2008. This was largely because of very strong net overseas immigration. Over the past ten years, Australia’s population has increased, on average, by around 360,000 people per year (1.65% y/y).
Dwelling construction has struggled to keep up with Australia’s housing requirements (Figure 2). Only recently has housing construction broken away from a long-term cyclical reversion to annual housing completions of approximately 145,000 dwellings. This has reflected a surge in construction of high-rise apartments, particularly in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.
<img src="/images/2016/03/23/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-23%20at%203.08.01%20PM.png" alt="" width="499" height="283">
Consequently, until recently almost a decade of underbuilding has driven a sharp run-up in Australia’s underlying housing shortage. Assuming that the housing market was in long-term cyclical balance – that is, the market wasn’t maintaining a long-term cyclical surplus for a 20-year period to 2005 – housing construction levels have only recently ‘caught up’ to annual housing construction requirements. That is, the surge in higher-density housing construction has driven housing construction levels to match annual underlying housing demand for the first time since 1995.
Based on our expectations of housing construction levels easing moderately from recent all-time highs in the coming years (from 220,000 dwelling starts in 2015 to 205,000 in 2016 and 198,000 in 2017) and slowing population growth (from 1.35% in 2015 to 1.30% in 2016), Australia’s underlying housing market balance should moderate in 2016 and 2017 (Figure 3).
<img src="/images/2016/03/23/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-23%20at%203.11.40%20PM.png" alt="" width="450" height="274">
 
What does the market balance mean for Australian House Prices?
An underlying shortage of housing has little explanatory power for short-term price growth, which is largely a reflection of: housing affordability (ie house prices compared to household income and mortgage rates); housing market sentiment; home buyer preferences; and housing market policy/regulation.
For example, the underlying shortage of housing in NSW continued to increase strongly through the recent periods of falling house prices in 2008-09 and 2011-12. However, an underlying housing market shortage (or existence of pent-up unsatisfied housing demand) does provide significant support to the long-term level of house prices, offsetting the downside risk to prices from short-term/cyclical factors (Figure 1). Looking ahead, markets with significant unsatisfied housing demand, particularly Sydney, have limited downside risks to prices absent unexpected shocks to household incomes.
That said, short-term/cyclical factors that drive house prices lower are likely to have more amplified and longer-term impacts in housing markets with weaker supply-demand balance fundamentals. That is, housing markets currently experiencing strong growth in new housing completions (ie inner-CBD Melbourne apartments, Western Sydney housing) and/or sharply weaker population growth (ie WA and Queensland mining regions) are likely to be more exposed to cyclical price falls than other markets.
In addition, house prices in markets that are considered more-or-less ‘in balance’, such as Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra, have much softer fundamental support and are more exposed to regional economic conditions.
What's changed: Why is the housing market shortage lower?
The Australian housing market has experienced some significant changes in recent years, including an increasing gap between home deposit and mortgage servicing affordability, stronger consumer preferences for higher-density dwellings and a strong appetite for housing as an investment asset.
How do these changes impact on our estimation of the housing market balance? The main assumptions that have been impacted by these changes are household formation rates and demolition rates – both of which have lowered our estimates of underlying demand for housing.
Household formation rates: to reflect subdued first home buyer activity and difficult home deposit affordability we have revised our historical and projected household formation rates lower (ie increasing the notional number of persons per household) 
Demolition rates: the issue of urban congestion, or concentrated population growth in the major capital cities, has increased housing demolition rates. This has been reflected by a strong increase in higher-density dwelling (apartment and townhouse) construction in inner-city locations in recent years. 
Foreign investors and Australia's housing market balance
Foreign investment in Australian housing has increased sharply in recent years, raising some concerns about the impact of foreign purchases on domestic housing market conditions. Most notably, these concerns have centred on the impact this has had on price growth. A lack of reliable and timely data1 on foreign investor purchases of
Australian housing makes it difficult to draw evidence-based conclusions on the net impact of recent activity on house prices, with most views based on anecdotal information.
However, assuming that the majority of foreign purchases are compliant with existing policy (ie. each purchase adds at least one new dwelling to the housing stock) it is fair to conclude that foreign investment has provided a boost to the supply of new housing and likely had little direct impact on underlying demand (depending on the motivation for the foreign investor purchase).
While the net impact of foreign investment is likely to provide limited direct support to demand for housing through household formation and population growth, it could add to underlying demand through a higher proportion of vacant or unoccupied dwellings. Similarly, there is little reliable data on this impact, with some data indicating a strong prevalence of ‘ghost towers’ and some apartment developers of the view that most foreign investors are tenanting apartment purchases for rental yield as well as capital security.
Consequently, we haven’t built any assumptions about the impact of growth in foreign investment to the proportion of vacant new dwelling completions. However, the 2016 ABS Census will be an important source of current information on the impact of foreign investment on underlying housing demand and Australia’s housing market balance.
Our overall view though is that foreign investment is likely to have eased underlying market balance pressure in the major capital cities.
 
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Is there still a housing shortage in Australia? ANZ Research says about 250,000 dwellings

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The Century 21 Australia chairman Charles Tarbey has warned the market could be hit with an oversupply of new properties.
“Then all of a sudden people get a bit frightened and concerned about settling," he told the REB website.
"They’d rather just lose their deposit and walk away or find a way out than to go ahead with purchasing an investment property.”
Mr Tarbey said there will be people who have put deposits on two or three properties.
“They’re not major investors, they are mums and dads that are starting out.
"There will be a few of them, and they are going to have to sit there and question whether or not they can come up with the extra cash if the valuations don’t meet the contract price that the properties are sold at.
“That’s the greatest risk.”
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Off the plan settlement risk coming: Charles Tarbey

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RBA Governor Glenn Stevens made his semi‑annual appearance before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics today. 
Prepared opening remarks from the Governor were followed by a lengthy Q&amp;A session. 
Glenn Stevens gave his predictions for the Sydney and Melbourne property market.
He expects home prices “to take a bit of a breather for a while”.
Stevens says a slowdown in Sydney &amp; Melbourne prices would be “quite welcome.”
“I think we have seen prices fall in some parts of Sydney," he said.
As for housing oversupply, he believes that there may be oversupply in some pockets, but he has ruled out prospects for housing oversupply in Sydney.
Glenn Steven's opening statement can be read here.
 
 
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Glenn Stevens gives his 2016 predictions for Sydney and Melbourne property

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Sydney has 2.4 months of supply left on the market, according to CoreLogic RP Data's senior research analyst Cameron Kusher.
He said the figure has increased from 2.2 months over each of the past two years and despite the rise, it is still the shortest month of supply for each capital city.
"Across the combined capital cities, there is currently 3.4 months of supply on the market," he said.
"This figure has increased from a recent low of 2.9 months in March."
 
<a href="/images/2015/10/28/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-28%20at%2010.02.03%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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Vendor offerings equal 2.4 months of supply on the Sydney market: CoreLogic RP Data

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Three vacant government land sites north of Sydney are being auctioned off with the potential for development into 100 dwellings.
The three residential sites, a high density residential development site at 2 Burley Street, Lane Cove North, a medium density residential development site at 460 Willoughby Road, Willoughby and seven lots in Kerela Avenue, Muttama Street and The Broadway, Wahroonga, will be offered online 5 November through Frank Knight.
Government Property NSW chief executive officer Brett Newman, said proceeds from these sales will be reinvested back into government agencies. 
“These sales reflect the Government’s approach to divesting latent property assets which are not core to service delivery," he said.
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NSW Government land sales announced for Sydney's north

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GUEST OBSERVER
Allowing first homebuyers to cash out their super to buy a home is a seductive idea with a long history. Like the nine-headed Hydra, which replaced each severed head with two more, each time the idea is cut down it seems to return even stronger.
Both sides of federal politics took proposals to the 1993 election to let Australians draw down their super. After re-election, then Prime Minister Paul Keating scrapped it amid widespread criticism. Former Treasurer Joe Hockey raised the idea again in March and was roundly criticised by academics and the media. This month the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA) has again resurrected the idea.
House prices have skyrocketed again over the past two years, particularly in Sydney. So politicians are attracted to any policy that appears to help first homebuyers to build a deposit. Unlike the various first homebuyers’ grants that cost billions each year, letting first homebuyers cash out their super would not hurt the budget bottom line – at least, not in the short term. But the change would worsen housing affordability, leave many people with less to retire on, and cost taxpayers in the long run.
It is a bad idea for five reasons.
First, measures to boost demand for housing, without addressing the well-documented restrictions on supply, do not make housing more affordable. Giving prospective first homebuyers access to their superannuation will help them build a house deposit, but it would worsen affordability for buyers overall. Unless supply increases, more people with deposits would simply bid up the price of existing homes, and the biggest winners would be the people who own them already.
Second, the proposal fails the test of superannuation being used solely to fund an adequate living standard in retirement. The government puts tax concessions on super to help workers provide their own retirement incomes. In return, workers can’t access their superannuation until they reach a certain age without incurring tax penalties.
While paying down a home is an investment, owner-occupiers also benefit from having somewhere to live without paying rent. These benefits that a house provides to the owner-occupier – which economists call housing services – are big, accounting for a sixth of total household consumption in Australia. Using super to buy a home they live in would allow people to consume a significant portion of the value of their superannuation savings as housing services well before they reach retirement.
Third, most first homebuyers who cash out their super would end up with lower overall retirement savings, even after accounting for any extra housing assets. Owner-occupiers give up the rent on their investment. With average gross rental yields sitting between 3% and 5% across major Australian cities, the impact on end retirement savings can be very large. Consequently, owner-occupiers will tend to have lower overall lifetime retirement savings than if the funds were left to compound in a superannuation fund.
Frugal homebuyers might maintain the value of their retirement savings if they save all the income they no longer have to pay as rent. In reality, few will have such self-discipline. Compulsory savings through superannuation have led many people to save more than they would otherwise. A recent Reserve Bank study found that each dollar of compulsory super savings added between 70 and 90 cents to total household wealth. If first homebuyers can cash out their super savings early to buy a home that they would have saved for anyway, then many will save less overall.
Fourth, the proposal would hurt government budgets in the long run. Superannuation fund balances are included in the Age Pension assets test. The family home is not. If people funnel some of their super savings into the family home, gaining more home equity but reducing their super fund balance, the government will pay more in pensions in the long-term.
Government would be spared this cost if any home purchased using super were included in the Age Pension assets test, but that would be very hard to implement. For example, do you only include the proportion of the home financed by superannuation? Or would the whole home, including principal repayments made from post-tax income, be included in the assets test? The problems go away if all housing were included in the pension assets test, but this would be a very difficult political reform.
Fifth, early access to super for first homebuyers could make the superannuation system even more unequal than it is today. Many first homebuyers are high-income earners. Allowing them to fund home purchases from concessionally-taxed super would simply add to the many tax mitigation strategies that already abound.
Consider the case of a prospective homebuyer earning A$200,000. Their concessional super contributions are taxed at 15%, rather than at their marginal tax rate of 47%. Once they buy a home, any capital gains that accrue as it appreciates are tax-free, as are the stream of housing services that it provides. Such attractive tax treatment of an investment – more generous than the already highly concessional tax treatment of either superannuation or owner occupied housing – would be prone to massive rorting by high-income earners keen to lower their income tax bills.
What, then, should the federal government do to make housing more affordable?
<h2>Helping fix our cities</h2>
Above all, new federal Minister for Cities Jamie Briggs should support policies to boost housing supply, especially in the inner and middle ring suburbs of major cities where most people want to live, and which have much better access to the centre of cities where most of the new jobs are being created. The federal government has little control over planning rules, which are administered by state and local governments. But it can use transparent performance reporting, rewards and incentives to stimulate state government action, using the same model as the National Competition Policy reforms of the 1990s.
Other reforms, such as reducing the 50% discount on capital gains tax and tightening negative gearing, would also reduce pressure on house prices and could be implemented straight away. Such favourable tax treatment drives up house prices because it increases the after-tax returns to housing investors. The number of negatively geared individuals doubled in the 10 years after the capital gains tax discount was introduced in 1999. More than 1.2 million Australian taxpayers own a negatively geared property, and they claimed A$14 billion in net rental losses in 2011-12.
There are no quick fixes to housing affordability in Australia. Yet any government that can solve the problem by boosting housing supply in inner and middle suburbs, while refraining from further measures to boost demand, will almost certainly find itself rewarded, by voters and by history.
Brendan Coates is senior associate, Grattan Institute and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brendan-coates-154644" target="_blank">here</a>.
John Daley<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-daley-1870" rel="author"> </a>is chief executive officer, Grattan Institute and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-daley-1870" target="_blank">here</a>.
Both are authors for The Conversation.
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Five reasons the Turnbull government shouldn’t let us spend super on a home

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<div>Now the construction sector is expanding again per AIG.</div>
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<div>Some good analysis from AIG that is well worth a read - apartment construction is an obvious strong point, which makes the drag on second quarter GDP by dwelling construction something of a mystery.</div>
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<div>Perhaps the residential construction industry is operating at or close to its full capacity?</div>
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<div>In any case, I expect dwelling construction to contribute to the economic growth in the third quarter.</div>
<a href="/images/2015/09/09/PCI.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/09/09/PCI.jpg" alt="">
 
All three of AIG's Performance Indices are now in expansion territory - manufacturing, construction and services.
<a href="/images/2015/09/09/AIG.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/09/09/AIG.jpg" alt="">
Source: AIG
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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Construction expands in August: Pete Wargent

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The public and VIP CBRE launch of the $140 million residential complex Macquarie Green is slated for next month with construction expected to begin late this year.
Designed by Marchese Partners, and developed by TOGA and Gresham Property, Macquarie Green’s gated community features 164 one, two and three bedroom apartments and townhouses across four low-rise buildings.
Two design features are available - Sanctuary, with timber undertones and white joinery and Oasis, offering grey oak floors with silver elm and antique white cabinetry. Smeg appliances, custom cabinetry, exquisite joinery, stone benches and timber floors are also included.
The development nears the Sydney Metro Northwest line and The Macquarie Centre upgrade (Herring Road Precinct).
Construction on Macquarie Green will begin in late 2015 with completion proposed for mid-2017.
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