Brisbane-based <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/red-co">Red &amp; Co Developments</a> has officially launched its $250million COMO apartment development in Varsity Lakes, while simultaneously commencing construction.&nbsp;

Building work is now underway at COMO following the appointment of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/5point-projects">5Point Projects</a> as contractor to deliver the boutique development which will rise on a 2857 sqm site overlooking Lake Orr at 22 Lake Street.

When completed, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/como-varsity-lakes-22-lake-street-varsity-lakes-qld-4227">COMO</a> will comprise 156 apartments across 16 levels located in the heart of Varsity Lakes.

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The project, which will sit alongside Bond University, will deliver a diverse array of apartment designs comprising one-, two- and three-bedroom residences that have already attracted interest from local and interstate investors as well as an array of owner occupiers looking to gain a foothold in the precinct.

Red &amp; Co, which has largely focused on the Brisbane market in recent years where it has delivered more than 500 apartments and townhouses across 26 projects, has designed COMO to combine tranquil, lakeside living with the vibrant urban convenience of the vibrant Varsity Lakes village.

“We’re thrilled to announce a start to construction of COMO in conjunction with the official launch of the project, our first for the Gold Coast,” said Red &amp; Co Director and Co-Founder David Laverty.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363509]

“COMO is superbly positioned to capture the essence of the Varsity Lakes village lifestyle and its thriving café and dining precinct, while delivering a much-needed diverse supply of premium residences for the local market.

“Pre-launch inquiries have been strong among both local and interstate investors and owner-occupiers, including downsizers and upgraders who appreciate the value proposition that COMO represents.”

Prices at COMO start from $1,000,050.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363511]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, the COMO development incorporates an extensive range of amenities for residents including a 25-metre rooftop lap pool, sundeck, barbecue and dining areas, as well as multiple rooftop pickleball and paddleball courts, a wellness and activity centre, gym, sauna, plunge baths and landscaped gardens.

“COMO presents a rare opportunity to secure a stylish, lifestyle-focused home in one of the Gold Coast’s most sought-after neighbourhoods,” added Laverty.

“The rooftop will be the epicentre of fun for residents with an array of amenities for residents that are quite unique for a boutique project such as this, all while offering spectacular vistas across the Gold Coast as far north as Southport and south to Burleigh.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363514]

&nbsp;

Red &amp; Co has chosen the Varsity Lakes site for its proximity to top-tier schools, major shopping hubs, such as Robina Town Centre and its CBD offering, as well as key Gold Coast transport links, including Varsity Lakes Train Station.

COMO will be located just a short walk to shops, cafes and restaurants in Varsity Lakes and just a 10-minute drive to the Burleigh Heads beachfront.

With construction currently underway, Red &amp; Co anticipates COMO will be completed in 2028.

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Joel Robinson

Red & Co to launch debut Gold Coast development Como Varsity Lakes as construction commences

Longstanding Gold Coast developer Raptis has acquired a prime development site on Surf Parade for its next Broadbeach apartment project.

Progressing towards completion of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-sterling-broadbeach-6-8-george-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">The Sterling Broadbeach</a>, 90 apartments on nearby George Avenue, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/raptis">Raptis</a>, led by second-generation family man Evan Raptis, has picked up a block on the corner of Surf Parade and First Avenue.

The site had been earmarked for a luxury apartment project with 33 full-floor apartments across a 37-storey tower. Raptis will go back to the drawing board and create a building more appropriate for the site. The development application will be lodged later this month.

Evan Raptis told Apartments.com.au the site ticks all the boxes.

"Broadbeach is a suburb we've developed several buildings over the years. Surf Parade ticks all the boxes for the type of apartment development we want to deliver."

Raptis had several pre-lodgement meetings with council to ensure they are aligned in the development.

<img alt="Raptis" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f0d58573-07a4-47a8-9f5e-fbf35fb03dc3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-03-05%20at%204.58.23%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=iczZEd_4_o4UL0PHMPJGfy_q3tv96J5i" />

Surf Parade has emerged in recent years as one of the most popular streets in Broadbeach for development.

South East Queensland developer Mosaic Property Group kicked it off with Marella by Mosaic. Bassar Group sold out Infinity on the street, while for its&nbsp;first Gold Coast development, Polycell grabbed a Surf Parade site for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-rochester-broadbeach-143-surf-parade-broadbeach-qld-4218">The Rochester</a>, which is nearly sold out.

Melbourne-based developer Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched its fourth Gold Coast project on the exclusive strip. The Eveleigh Broadbeach will have 100 apartments across a 31-storey building designed by Rothelowman.

GV Property Group site development specialists Antonio Mercuri and Luke Reaby, who both amalgamate sites and sell shovel-ready sites to developers up and down the Gold Coast, sold Surf Parade to Raptis.

Raptis secures prime Surf Parade site for next Broadbeach apartment development

Less than two years after breaking ground, Gardner Vaughan Group is celebrating the topping out of Bask, its second development in the exclusive coastal enclave of Bokarina on Queensland’s Sunshine Coast.&nbsp;

Located only minutes from the beachfront, the two seven-storey luxury apartment towers, known individually as Mydas and Caretta, offer a selection of one-to-four-bedroom residences with views of Lake Kawana, the Glasshouse Mountains, and Bokarina Beach.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=333359]

Gardner Vaughan Group Commercial Director Sam Gardner said the milestone marks the home stretch for construction, with first residents expected to be able to move in from Spring 2026.&nbsp;

“This is a significant milestone in bringing this development to life and represents our confidence in this region’s long-term growth and appeal,” Gardner said.&nbsp;

“With 85 per cent of apartments already sold, buyers are joining an established, coastal village that offers the very best of the Sunshine Coast – seasonally patrolled surf beaches, renowned restaurants, and links to established health and retail.&nbsp;

“The final collection of three- and four- bedroom apartments range in size from 127sqm to 300sqm, each with two or three secure car parks and storage, and with construction fast approaching completion we don’t expect the last few apartments to remain on the market for long.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=333362]

Local restaurateur Luke Stringer, who co-owns and manages the award-winning Bocca Italian and Playa Mexican restaurants in Bokarina, has lived in the beachside suburb for 18 months and worked there for more than three years, and said the beachside suburb was thriving.&nbsp;

“It’s fair to say Bokarina is finally stepping into the sun and there’s a lot to love about the place,"&nbsp;Stringer said.

"It’s such a great community, where you see the same smiling faces every morning and everything’s within easy reach – it’s the perfect hub in the middle of the Sunshine Coast.

“When we first opened Bocca Italian, we were the lone restaurant, but it’s been amazing to see how the area has grown. The more venues that open, the busier it gets for everyone. When Playa Mexican opened its first Saturday night, Bocca had a record night and Playa was packed too, which blew us away how everyone is thriving.&nbsp;

“There’s a great energy around the place now, and people are really embracing Bokarina as a food and lifestyle destination.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=363368]

Stringer joined other buyers at Bask Bokarina and the Gardner Vaughan Group team to celebrate the topping out at a special event in February.&nbsp;

Located in Kawana Waters, midway between Caloundra and Maroochydore, Bokarina locals enjoy scenic walking paths around Lake Kawana, playgrounds, beachfront boardwalk and parklands, alongside all the convenience of a masterplanned beachside community.&nbsp;

“You see people jogging or swimming in the morning, then grabbing coffee at the cafes, people are really embracing the area and all this growth is bringing more people to Bokarina,” Stringer added.&nbsp;

To take advantage of the vistas, each of the 135 apartments at Bask is designed with full size windows and high ceilings that provide an abundance of natural light.&nbsp;

Prices for the remaining three-bedroom apartments start at $1,599,000 and four-bedroom apartments start at $3,149,000.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=363369]

The mixed-use development also features ground-level retail space for cafés, dining options and boutiques, including the soon-to-be-opened ‘Corner Shop’, by the team behind Noosa’s well known ‘Organika’.

Sam Gardner said Gardner Vaughan Group’s 37-year history building and developing across South East Queensland has contributed to the success of its second development in Bokarina, which follows the recently completed Zinc Apartments.&nbsp;

“We care how people live and this is reflected in the way we approach the design and delivery of every development,” he said. “Furthermore, as a builder-developer we have full control over the construction program and our 100 per cent completion rate is something people can draw confidence from.”&nbsp;

Founded by civil engineers Guy Gardner and Darryl Vaughan in 1989, the family-owned business has evolved from a consultancy firm to an award-winning builder-developer, with projects across the Sunshine Coast, Moreton Bay, Brisbane and the Gold Coast.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=141609]

Gardner Vaughan Group tops out Bask Bokarina apartments

Prolific Melbourne developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hirsch-faigen">Hirsch &amp; Faigen</a> has launched its fourth new Gold Coast development in as many years.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hirsch-faigen">Hirsch &amp; Faigen</a>, led by Daniel Faigen and backed by Eddie Hirsch, co-founder of United Petroleum, has unveiled The Eveleigh, on a prime 1,100 sqm site at 7-9 Surf Parade in the heart of Broadbeach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-eveleigh-broadbeach-7-9-surf-parade-broadbeach-qld-4218">The Eveleigh</a> will deliver 100 apartments across 31 levels, making it the company’s largest Gold Coast project to date. It builds on the success of its three earlier developments, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/hemingway-1267-1273-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach">The Hemingway in Palm Beach</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/emerson-kirra-100-musgrave-street-coolangatta">The Emerson at Kirra</a>, both completed, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/yves-mermaid-beach-7-9-mermaid-avenue-mermaid-beach">Yves Mermaid Beach</a>, which is nearing completion.

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The announcement of The Eveleigh affirms the company’s sustained confidence in the Gold Coast market which continues to remain undersupplied. It also increases the value of Hirsch &amp; Fa​igen’s Gold Coast development portfolio to more than $700 million since the company first entered the market in 2021 with Hemingway.

The company has enlisted its preferred architecture firm Rothelowman to design The Eveleigh, which will offer a thoughtfully curated lifestyle, including a substantial wellness precinct, communal recreation areas, children’s play spaces, work-from-home facilities, and shared lounge and dining areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360965]

Designed for the prime market demographic of downsizers and interstate lifestyle investors in mind, The Eveleigh has been crafted to offer an increasingly rare blend of affordable luxury in a tightly held market. Uniquely positioned in the heart of the Gold Coast’s most sought-after lifestyle suburb of Broadbeach, the project will also boast uninterrupted beach and hinterland views.

The Surf Parade site is just a short walk to the bustling Broadbeach dining and retail precinct, Pacific Fair, The Star Gold Coast and convention centre, and an easy stroll to Kurrawa Beach and the recreational amenity of Pratten Park on the Broadbeach foreshore.

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“We’re excited to be proceeding with our fourth project on the Gold Coast in what is certain to become the new luxury precinct in Broadbeach,” says Anthony Bueti, the CFO of Hirsch &amp;a​mp; Faigen and a shareholder of the group.

“With the likes of Mosa​ic and Abedian &amp;a​mp; Co also launching quality projects in the area, the transformation will cement Broadbeach as the premier lifestyle and amenity suburb on the Gold Coast.

"After four years in the Gold Coast market, and with three successful projects completed, The Eveleigh is the product of everything we have learned to love about the Gold Coast and it will be an incredible addition to our growing portfolio in one of the most vibrant property markets in the country. We continue to remain very confident in the high-end Gold Coast property market.”

Urban Activation Director Matt George is handling sales for The Eveleigh, having sold out The Emerson, The Hemingway, and Yves, all before construction was completed.

Melbourne builder MAXCON has already commenced construction on The Eveleigh. They are forecasting a mid-2028 completion.

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Hirsch & Faigen unveils The Eveleigh in Broadbeach

Two years after securing development approval for the final stage of its award-winning Thornton Precinct on the doorstep of Penrith Station, Urban Property Group is set to launch <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/mayfair-on-penrith-172-lord-sheffield-circuit-penrith-nsw-2750">Mayfair on Penrith</a>, around 400 apartments designed to reflect two of Sydney’s most iconic structures.

The builder-developer has continued refining the design plans for the two-building development on a significant 8,280 sqm site on Sheffield Circuit, recognising the importance of the prime parcel as one of the closest developable sites to the station.

UPG enlisted architecture firm SJB to design the project. The team said they drew inspiration from both the General Post Office in Martin Place and East Circular Quay to help shape the design. The two-level colonnade, in particular, reflects the famous GPO building, which dates back to the 1860s.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136726 project_image_fid=362014]

There will be one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments on offer, with interiors by Cox Architecture. Residences will sit above a retail podium featuring hospitality and lifestyle operators such as One Playground and Volcano’s Steakhouse, contributing to an activated ground plane within the broader Thornton precinct.

A communal rooftop with a pool and views towards the Blue Mountains will provide shared open space for residents. The development is positioned between Ron Mulock Oval and Westfield Penrith, with the Nepean River and Great River Walk also nearby, placing daily amenity and green space within walking distance.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136726 project_image_fid=362015]

Mayfair is being delivered by Urban Property Group, a family-owned developer and builder with nearly 40 years’ experience across Sydney. The project will be the first in Penrith to be offered with Resilience Insurance’s 10-year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI) policy, which Urban Property Group has adopted across a number of its recent developments. The developer also has a 4.5-star iCIRT rating, one of the best ratings in market providing further confidence to buyers.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said providing additional assurance to off-the-plan buyers has become increasingly important.

“Anything we can do to give confidence in our product is a plus,” Elias told Apartments.com.au.

“Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been. They’re making their single large investment, which is their home, and providing confidence is something that we feel is paramount.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136726 project_image_fid=362020]

The LDI policy provides a 10-year warranty covering structural defects, with independent inspections carried out during construction and protection for owners if defects arise post-completion.

Mayfair represents Urban Property Group’s sixth and final development within Thornton, consolidating the masterplanned precinct immediately east of the station.

The developer, which builds its own projects, has already commenced construction. SRM Residential is handling the sales campaign.

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Urban Property Group to close the curtain on award-winning Thornton precinct with Mayfair on Penrith release

Housing Sentiment

As national house prices continue to climb, consumers are not convinced that now is a good time to buy property, according to new research by Finder, Australia&rsquo;s most visited comparison site. &nbsp;

Finder&rsquo;s Property Positivity Index shows that the proportion of Australians who think now is a &ldquo;good time to buy&rdquo; is at its lowest ebb since lockdowns started last year.

As of May 2021, the index is sitting at 49% &ndash; only a few points higher than the pessimistic low of 42% in April 2020.&nbsp;

In December 2020, a record-high number of people (67%) said it was a good time to buy, however this figure has since dropped by 18 points.&nbsp;

Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said that Australians&rsquo; property optimism has yoyoed throughout the past 12 months.&nbsp;

&ldquo;As lockdowns rolled out across Australia and open house inspections declined, Finder&rsquo;s Property Positivity Index nosedived only to recover again as the housing market sprang back to life.&nbsp;

&ldquo;Both the rock-bottom cash rate and FOMO have turbo-charged prices but fears of a property bubble are making many Aussies pessimistic that now is the time to buy,&rdquo; he said.&nbsp;

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Property positivity toward prices spikes

Despite fewer people thinking now is a good time to buy, approximately 74% feel that property prices in their area will continue to rise over the next 12 months &ndash; up from a low of 24% in April 2020.&nbsp;

When asked about whether prospective first-time buyers with a deposit saved may miss an affordability window if they do not purchase within the next year, Finder&rsquo;s RBA panelists were divided.&nbsp;

In total, 9 experts said they would miss out (64%), while the remaining 7 (36%) said they wouldn&rsquo;t.

Dale Gillham, stock market analyst from Wealth Within said buyers would not be missing a window.

&ldquo;This situation has been talked about since Adam was a boy and it will continue to be into the future. I have never seen a time when we thought property was cheap for anyone let alone first-time buyers,&rdquo; he said.&nbsp;

Rebecca Cassells of Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre said buyers may miss a window if they don&rsquo;t buy.

&ldquo;Increased house prices driven by significant stimulus and low interest rate environment has the potential to lock out future first home buyers by making it even harder to come up with the deposit needed to enter the market.&rdquo;

Cooke said that window of opportunity or not, there&rsquo;s been a significant turnaround in property price expectations over the past year.&nbsp;

&ldquo;The last 6 months resulted in the largest amount borrowed to buy housing in any 6-month period in Australian history. The property market really is surging back into life,&rdquo; Cooke said.&nbsp;

Finder’s Property Positivity Index shows that the proportion of Australians who think now is a “good time to buy” is at its lowest ebb since lockdowns started last year.

jordan_55689

Consumers increasingly unconvinced to buy property: Finder Survey

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EXPERT OBSERVER
There has been a turnaround in housing sentiment post-election. 
<div><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2O6ydv5d_yc/XVni9mLphDI/AAAAAAAAxY4/Wqb10jHOMQ8QStGBIlxAYxOTafNm1xwugCLcBGAs/s1600/C8117FDD-B268-4C8B-A681-0065B5FC871E%2B%25282%2529.jpeg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2O6ydv5d_yc/XVni9mLphDI/AAAAAAAAxY4/Wqb10jHOMQ8QStGBIlxAYxOTafNm1xwugCLcBGAs/s640/C8117FDD-B268-4C8B-A681-0065B5FC871E%2B%25282%2529.jpeg" width="640" height="468" data-original-height="607" data-original-width="828"></a></div>
Source: CoreLogic
<div>There have been other factors, of course, including two rate cuts.</div>
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<div>The second rate cut was only delivered six weeks or so ago, and there can be a long lag effect - the full impacts many not be felt for up to 18 months</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>In addition, there were very strong auction results reported for the inner suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne by agents and media alike this weekend, especially for properties located within 15 minutes commute of the Central Business District. CoreLogic found that every single apartment in Sydney's city or inner south taken to auction this weekend sold under the hammer, which is remarkable. For freestanding inner-suburban houses, it was a bit of a frenzy. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. 
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

The post-election housing sentiment bounce: Pete Wargent

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The ANZ-Property Council Survey for the September quarter showed a modest improvement in sentiment across Australia’s property sectors, although it remains deep in negative territory as COVID-19 and the associated shutdown of economic activity cuts across the economy.
The impact of COVID-19 is immense. Nationwide, almost all respondents report being negatively hit.
Encouragingly, 60% of businesses expect the impact to improve over the coming quarter, however keep in mind that this survey closed on 1 July, before Melbourne’s shutdown was announced.
In the residential sector, overall sentiment remains negative across all states and territories.
Price expectations fell further into negative territory, while the employment outlook remains challenging. The outlook for construction and forward orders, however, are both now positive and improving, clearly helped by the HomeBuilder scheme.
In a special question on the Commonwealth Government’s HomeBuilder program, respondents within the residential sector were broadly positive about the scheme, with 60% reporting that it would have a positive impact on their business.
In commercial property, sentiment remains deeply negative across all sectors except industrial, where confidence is now back in positive territory. Sentiment in the office sector declined and was broadly flat in the tourism sector where confidence is the weakest.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Coronavirus continues to weigh on property sentiment: ANZ

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Sydney’s outlook on housing dipped further in May, despite the easing of pandemic restrictions, according to the UDIA Urbis Home Purchaser Sentiment Survey.
The poll - carried out between May 7 and 12 - found that the proportion of residents feeling ‘very positive’ about the property market dropped six percentage points (to 21 per cent) compared with this time last year.
Overall, homeowners had a more pessimistic outlook than renters.
The proportion of homeowners who were positive about the market fell seven percentage points to 54 per cent over the year.
This was compared with just a two-percentage point drop among renters (down to 50%).
"The report shows a downward shift in sentiment since the last survey, with increased pessimism around purchasing property in the next 12 months," associate director of Urbis Kylie Newcombe said.
"The softening in sentiment was, however, relatively moderate, suggesting cautious optimism by prospective purchasers in the medium-term fundamentals of the Sydney property market.
Almost half of all Sydney residents also believe that house prices will drop in the next six months – more than double the number from a year ago.
Just over one in four believe prices will drop over the next 12 months – a seven percentage points rise compared with a year ago.
The city, and Sydney's east, saw the residents who were the most negative about the prospect of home prices, with 55 per cent expecting prices to drop over the next six months.
More than two-thirds said they were unlikely to buy a property in the next 12 months – a seven percentage points increase from July last year.
And 72 per cent said they were unlikely to buy in the next six months.
In more bad news for apartment developers, 61 per cent said they preferred free-standing houses compared with units or apartments.
However, the report noted that "it is not possible to conclude a relationship between COVID-19 and preferences.”
There was also a strong support for stamp duty reform as a tool to improve confidence among home owners and some renters.
Fifty-four per cent of renters said policies targeting first home buyers would have a positive effect on their confidence.
Given a choice, Sydney residents would like to live in Parramatta, Castle Hill, Chatswood, Blacktown and Balmain.
The poll surveyed 531 Sydney residents.
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Sydney housing sentiment slumps further in May: UDIA Urbis Home Purchaser Sentiment Survey

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In the wake of the coronavirus outbreak and the associated shutdown of economic activity, sentiment towards residential property and all sectors of commercial property declined sharply, according to the ANZ.
In their June Quarter ANZ property council survey in answer to new questions, specially set for this survey, they found that expectations of a negative impact from the coronavirus were broadly based and similar across the states. Nationwide, virtually all respondents expect to be negatively impacted by the pandemic, with all states recording similar responses.
10% of businesses report that the impact is already so serious it is affecting their viability. A large majority of firms reported that the virus was already impacting current construction schedules. Firms expect the impact of the virus to be largest on the tourism sector. 
In the residential sector, price expectations have turned around sharply and a net 36% of respondents now expect house prices to decline over the next year.
Employment in the sector is also expected to decline, but the outlook for construction activity is more balanced. The outlook for the residential sector is negative across all states and territories. 
In commercial property, across all sectors and states sentiment declined sharply. Confidence in the tourism and retail sectors was the weakest, but sentiment also declined sharply in the office and industrial sectors.
ANZ Senior Economist Felicity Emmett said, "after recovering through much of 2019, property sentiment has taken a hit from the coronavirus and the shutdown measures put in place by the federal and state governments to contain it."
"Just as the lockdown measures have been broadly-based, the deterioration in sentiment has been equally widespread. Sentiment across the residential, office, industrial, retail and tourism sectors have all been sharply impacted."
"Not surprisingly, the tourism sector has been the hardest hit."
"Across all sectors, price expectations have turned around sharply, employment prospects have deteriorated and the construction outlook has turned down."
"The construction sector is not subject to a shut-down at present, but the downturn in the outlook is concerning, and suggests that the impact of the virus may be more long lasting on the property sector. With long lags associated with construction approvals, commencements and completions, a quick rebound once the lockdown is eased seems unlikely"
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Coronavirus infecting property sentiment: ANZ

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The NAB Residential Property Index has ticked in to positive territory for the first time since mid-2018 as the rebound in the capital city housing markets continues to gather steam.
The Index, a measure of housing market sentiment based on the expectations of property professionals for both capital growth and rents, rose 26 points in the September quarter to an above average +18.
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The average survey expectation for national house prices for the next 12 months is positive for the first time since Q1 2018.
 “The results suggest the Australian housing market is on the way to recovery.” NAB chief economist Alan Oster said.
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<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/24/NAB%20Residential%20Propery%20Index.jpg" alt="">
The average survey expectation for national house prices for the next 12 months is also positive for the first time since the first quarter of 2018, with prices expected to strengthen moving into 2021. 
Property professionals in all states except WA expect to see positive gains in the next year, with Victoria and NSW leading the way.
“This marks a sharp reversal from the previous survey where Victoria and NSW were expected to be the weakest states for price growth and the only states where prices were tipped to fall” Oster said.<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/24/NAB%20residential%20index%20by%20state.jpg" alt="">
Sentiment improved sharply among property professionals in VIC, with the state index climbing steeply by 48 points to +40 to record the best result in the country by some margin.
Only Western Australia saw its sentiment decline.
Following the resurgence in house values, NAB have amended their forecasts for 2020, now predicting <a href="/news/sydney-and-melbourne-house-values-to-rise-over-seven-percent-in-2020-nab">7.4 per cent gains in both Sydney and Melbourne</a>.
They <a href="http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/forward-planning/investment-strategy/property-news-and-insights/105652-melbourne-apartments-to-outperform-sydney-in-2020-nab" target="_blank">expect Melbourne to outdo Sydney in the apartment ranks</a>, with 7.4 per cent gains in the unit market compared to Sydney's 4.3 per cent.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

NAB residential property index ticks into positive for first time since mid-2018

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Housing-related sentiment has improved but part of the gain looks to be based on an expected further lowering in rates.
Our <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/August/WestpacHousingPulseAugust2019.pdf" target="_blank">latest Housing Pulse report</a> finds sentiment-based measures giving the most positive signal in over five years. However, a sustained lift in demand has yet to be confirmed and there remain important caveats. In particular much of the lift looks to be based on an expected further improvement in affordability that may not materialise if prices start rising again or if the RBA disappoints on expected rate cuts.
Interest rate expectations have seen a big shift over the last year. Back in Aug 2018 most consumers expected rates to be higher by now. That hawkishness evaporated in Feb following a clear signal from the RBA that rates were more likely to fall than rise. The Bank followed up with two 25bp cuts in June and July, indicating that it is prepared to cut further “if needed”. Accordingly, most consumers now expect rates to be the same or lower in a year’s time with markets and economists expecting rates to be about 50bps lower.
Our August update of an additional question on consumer expectations for mortgage rates. The simplest summary measure – the net % expecting rates to rise – declined to 9.8 from 38.7 in Feb, 50.4 in Aug last year and a peak of 68.2 in Aug 2017. The latest read is a touch below the 9.9 in Aug 2016 and the least hawkish/most dovish since late 2011.
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The history of this question, which has been run since 2010, shows a clear ‘upward bias’. Adjusting for this the latest reading looks to be consistent with about a 45bp decline in rates over the next year. That would place the consumer reading as slightly less dovish than current market pricing which has 60bps in RBA cuts priced in by this time next year but more in line with that of economists. For the record, Westpac expects the RBA to cut rates by 50bps over the next year, with two moves likely coming in Oct and Feb (see <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/July/er20190724BullRBACashRate.pdf">here</a> for more).
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist for Westpac
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Housing sentiment at its most positive in over 5 years: Matthew Hassan

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Australians are feeling more optimistic about purchasing a home, according to new research from Westpac.
Just over half of all participants suggested that they felt more confident about the housing market than they did 12 months ago, while 53% stated they were eager to take advantage of record low interest rates.
Those who already owned at least one home were the most optimistic demographic, with almost three quarters (71%) feeling more confident about the market than last year, and two thirds (66%) believing now is a good time to purchase their next home.
The primary motivations for those signally an intention to invest in the current housing market were (1) low interest rates (20%), (2) falling house prices (18%), and (3) the desire to live in a new area (17%).
The study also indicates that Australians are significantly more likely to be looking to buy a new home to live in themselves (37%), particularly for the sake of upsizing (24%) – these figures have more than doubled since 2018.
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“Record low interest rates have created a positive environment for home owners to not only get ahead on their mortgage repayments, but to also purchase their next home,” said Will Ranken, the general manager of home ownership at Westpac.
The findings showed relief might be on the way with Australian home owners now 50% more likely to sell their home compared to last year, with one in ten (10%) intending to sell in the next 12 months.
“We’ve seen a recent rise in auction clearance rates, so it could be an opportune time for sellers to capitalise on growing demand, particularly in the lead up to spring; the time of year when house hunters tend to be the most active,” said Ranken.
A limitation of investment options was the primary concern of participants in the study, with almost one in five (18%) next home buyers feeling challenged by a lack of property supply listed on the market.
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Australians are feeling more optimistic about the housing market: Westpac

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The ANZ-Property Council Survey for the June quarter shows a further decline in sentiment in Australia’s property sector. 
Confidence has hit a new low and is now at the lowest level since the survey began in 2011.
Residential property continues to lead the fall in overall sentiment.
Nearly all the key residential indicators declined further in the June quarter, with sentiment, prices and construction all reaching fresh lows. 
"Importantly though, the outlook for credit availability improved, tentatively suggesting that the housing sector is reaching an inflexion point," it noted.
The largest decline in confidence came in New South Wales, which is consistent with the fact that Sydney has seen the most marked weakness in house prices.
 Not far behind was Victoria, while Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia saw more moderate declines. 
But ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented that the most important aspect of the latest ANZ-PCA property survey could be the improvement in the availability of finance.
"It was a modest improvement in this part of the survey in mid-2017 that signalled greater stability in the housing market later that year and in early 2018.
"Finance availability then deteriorated sharply, continuing to fall through the rest of 2018 and into 2019.
"We think this deterioration was the trigger for the renewed house price weakness in Sydney and Melbourne from that point.
"The turn in finance availability captured in this survey could signal a turn in the market.
"Certainly it suggests we may be past the worst of the downturn in building approvals.
"We need to be cautious, though, about the outlook."
He added finance is still difficult to get, and sentiment in the residential property space is very negative.
"This primarily reflects the price outlook, which has fallen further in New South Wales and Victoria.
"Sentiment does tend to lead rather than follow prices, however, certainly over the past few years.
"We think the continued downturn in price sentiment reflects recent developments rather than indicating a deterioration in the outlook.
"The shift in expectations with regard to interest rates may help the outlook.
"Still, we expect further declines in house prices this year."
Outside residential, sentiment is much better. It has, however, declined from its recent peak across most sectors. Sentiment in the retail sector is especiallysoft, which is not surprising.”
Sentiment declined in the commercial space as well, although it remains much more positive than is the case for residential. 
Declines in confidence were seen in all segments (retail, tourism, office) except industrial. 
It noted forward work schedules have declined, but remain elevated, reflecting the fact that the amount of work in the pipeline remains substantial but is past the peak. Consistent with the decline in the construction outlook, hiring intentions have also come down.
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