<p data-end="186" data-start="128">ANZ believes the Reserve Bank is in no rush to move again.</p>

<p data-end="441" data-start="188">Following the release of the May Monetary Policy Board Minutes, ANZ has taken the view that the RBA is now firmly in a holding pattern, with the cumulative impact of previous rate hikes giving the Board scope to assess how the economy evolves from here.</p>

<p data-end="508" data-start="443">That positioning, in ANZ’s view, makes a June rate hike unlikely.</p>

<p data-end="680" data-start="510">The bank continues to expect the cash rate to remain unchanged at 4.35 per cent for an extended period, with the RBA adopting what is effectively a wait-and-see approach.</p>

<p data-end="1015" data-start="682">The Minutes point to a Board that sees financial conditions as already restrictive, but without a clear read on just how restrictive they are. That uncertainty has shifted the focus away from immediate policy action and toward monitoring both domestic conditions and global developments, particularly the conflict in the Middle East.</p>

<p data-end="1098" data-start="1017">As ANZ interprets it, the Board is deliberately avoiding strong forward guidance.</p>

<p data-end="1345" data-start="1100">Instead, it is allowing itself flexibility, acknowledging that monetary policy has limited ability to influence the near-term trajectory of inflation, while also recognising that economic growth is likely to remain below potential for some time.</p>

<p data-end="1436" data-start="1347">Despite that pause in momentum, ANZ notes that the Board still carries a tightening bias.</p>

<p data-end="1678" data-start="1438">The Minutes reveal that, in weighing up its decision, the Board seriously considered another 25 basis point increase. The key debate centred on the trade-off between inflation and activity, particularly in the context of global uncertainty.</p>

<p data-end="1755" data-start="1680">Ultimately, most members leaned toward the inflation side of that equation.</p>

<p data-end="2082" data-start="1757">Underlying inflation is still expected to remain above target for an extended period, regardless of how external risks evolve. That has led to a view within the Board that the risks to its inflation objective have increased, and that the current cash rate may not be sufficiently restrictive to fully contain those pressures.</p>

<p data-end="2101" data-start="2084">That’s important.</p>

<p data-end="2239" data-start="2103">While the decision, for now, is to hold, the underlying tone of the Minutes suggests the door to further tightening has not been closed.</p>

<p data-end="2597" data-start="2241">ANZ also points to commentary from Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter, who highlighted the risk that inflation could pass through the economy more quickly and broadly than in previous cycles. Both Hunter and a majority of the Board expressed concern that inflation expectations could become less anchored after such a prolonged period above target.</p>

<p data-end="2733" data-start="2599">That combination, persistent inflation and the risk of expectations shifting, is what continues to underpin the RBA’s cautious stance.</p>

<p data-end="2807" data-start="2735">However, where ANZ diverges from the RBA is on the outlook for activity.</p>

<p data-end="3152" data-start="2809">The Board appears relatively comfortable with current spending patterns, effectively downplaying recent declines in business and consumer sentiment. It notes that sentiment has historically been only weakly correlated with actual spending, and that feedback from its liaison program has not yet pointed to a meaningful slowdown in consumption.</p>

<p data-end="3176" data-start="3154">ANZ is less convinced.</p>

<p data-end="3464" data-start="3178">The bank believes the link between household disposable income, sentiment and spending is more direct than the RBA is currently acknowledging. With inflation continuing to erode real incomes, ANZ expects household spending to soften more materially than the central bank is forecasting.</p>

<p data-end="3528" data-start="3466">That divergence matters because it shifts the balance of risk.</p>

<p data-end="3740" data-start="3530">If activity weakens more than expected, the trade-off between inflation and growth changes. In ANZ’s view, that would reduce the need for further tightening and reinforce the case for the RBA to remain on hold.</p>

<p data-end="3855" data-start="3742">It also suggests that the current policy setting may already be doing more work than the Board fully appreciates.</p>

<p data-end="3945" data-start="3857">The broader takeaway from ANZ’s interpretation is that the RBA is walking a narrow path.</p>

<p data-end="4135" data-start="3947">On one side sits the risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected. On the other is the growing pressure on households and the potential for a sharper slowdown in activity.</p>

<p data-end="4176" data-start="4137">For now, the Board is choosing to wait.</p>

<p data-end="4286" data-start="4178">But it is a pause that still carries an underlying tightening bias, rather than a clear pivot toward easing.</p>

<p data-end="4423" data-start="4288">In practical terms, that leaves the cash rate anchored at 4.35 per cent for the foreseeable future, with the next move still uncertain.</p>

<p data-end="4494" data-start="4425">For borrowers, it reinforces the reality that relief is not imminent.</p>

<p data-end="4686" data-start="4496">And for the broader economy, it highlights the delicate balance the RBA is trying to strike, between bringing inflation back to target and avoiding an unnecessarily sharp slowdown in growth.</p>

<p data-end="4774" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="4688">According to ANZ, it is a balance that is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain.</p>


Joel Robinson

RBA to hold rates for "prolonged period" rather than hikes: ANZ

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/venturecrowd-property-projects">VentureCrowd</a> is down to the final Canopy Villa release at Cumulus Grand Villas in Carrara, as construction continues on the 59-residence gated community positioned above 100 hectares of natural savanna on the Gold Coast.</p>

<p>The remaining Canopy Villa forms part of one of four collections within the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>-designed community and has attracted interest from buyers seeking larger-format homes that combine privacy, security and low-maintenance living. Positioned within a private cul-de-sac and facing a protected black she oak forest, the four-bedroom villa includes a large private outdoor area suited to pet owners and families wanting more flexible space.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/cumulus-grand-villas-carrara-17-baltimore-court-carrara-qld-4211">Cumulus Grand Villas</a>, located at 17 Baltimore Court, comprises a mix of three and four-bedroom villas across the Skyline, Canopy, Savanna and Broadview collections. Prices currently range from $1.455 million to $1.895 million, with the final Canopy Villa priced from $1.825 million.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360477]</p>

<p>The Canopy Collection villas offer four bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and approximately 245 sqm of internal space, alongside double garages and landscaped private areas. Expansive glazing, open-plan living spaces and private balconies have been designed to maximise natural light and outlooks toward the surrounding savanna landscape.</p>

<p>Construction is now underway across the fully funded development, which VentureCrowd says has become an increasingly important consideration for buyers assessing off-the-plan opportunities on the Gold Coast. The project is being delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/devcon">Devcon Property Group</a>, which has operated in South East Queensland since 1993 and delivered more than 1,000 homes across the region.</p>

<p>VentureCrowd Director of Property David Whitting previously said the project responds to changing buyer priorities in the prestige Gold Coast market.</p>

<p>“Flexible floorplans have proven particularly relevant for purchasers aged between 40 and 65, including next home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Whitting said.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360505]</p>

<p>The buyer profile at Cumulus has reflected that shift toward owner-occupier-driven demand. Stuart Towns and Tracey Loynes recently purchased a Canopy Villa, drawn to both the lifestyle offering and the flexibility the home provided for their next stage of living together.</p>

<p>The couple, who met three years ago, sold their Robina home earlier this year after identifying what they saw as strong long-term investment potential at Cumulus while remaining within the same Gold Coast market. The villa’s private backyard was a major drawcard for their dog Luna, while proximity to golf courses including Emerald Lakes also aligned with their lifestyle interests.</p>

<p>Beyond the residences themselves, the community has been planned around shared lifestyle and recreation amenities. The Infinity Terrace will include a 20-metre heated pool, barbecue facilities, alfresco dining spaces and elevated retreat areas overlooking the surrounding landscape. Walking trails, a private nature reserve, orchard and herb garden are also integrated into the masterplan.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360473]</p>

<p>BDA Architecture Director Darren Greenaway said the design approach was heavily influenced by the site’s outlook and secluded setting.</p>

<p>The practice sought to create what Greenaway described as a “little piece of paradise,” drawing inspiration from the elevated views, surrounding greenery and quiet location.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/carrara-qld-4211">Carrara</a> continues to attract buyers seeking larger homes within proximity to the coast but without direct beachfront pricing. Cumulus sits within easy reach of Broadbeach, Pacific Fair, Robina Town Centre and the M1, providing connections north to Brisbane and south toward the Gold Coast Airport and northern New South Wales.</p>

<p>The first stage of Cumulus Grand Villas is targeting completion in 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135663]</p>


VentureCrowd nears sell-out of Canopy Collection at Cumulus Grand Villas in Carrara

<p data-end="89" data-start="0">Waverley Council has made a call that many councils have been reluctant to make publicly. Growth is coming, regardless of who controls it.</p>

<p data-end="659" data-start="141">The release of the Bondi Junction Vision and Master Plan is less about whether the Eastern Suburbs’ primary centre will change, and more about how that change is shaped, funded, and ultimately experienced on the ground. Waverley Council has released a 100-page plan which is effectively the first comprehensive blueprint for Bondi Junction in over two decades, and in doing so, signals a clear shift in how councils are positioning themselves in the current planning environment.</p>

<p data-end="1018" data-start="661">For the past 18 months, the conversation across New South Wales has been dominated by the State Government’s Low and Mid-Rise Housing reforms and the emergence of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway. Both have created faster, more centralised avenues for development approvals, particularly in well-located, infrastructure-rich areas like Bondi Junction.</p>

<p data-end="1087" data-start="1020">Waverley Council’s response has been to move early, and decisively.</p>

<p data-end="1547" data-start="1089">Rather than react to individual proposals as they come through the HDA or broader State-led reforms, Council has sought to establish a clear, place-based framework that sets the terms for how Bondi Junction evolves. The underlying position is relatively straightforward: if densification is inevitable, it should be tied to infrastructure, public domain improvements, and a cohesive vision for the centre, not delivered piecemeal through ad hoc applications.</p>

<p data-end="1547" data-start="1089"><img alt="bondi junction" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7f1f729c-ed99-4c6c-bf87-ffbce6991941" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-19%20at%209.58.16%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=ULX4OlXKjeJ5BvNCNGL86evgXCjCfMih" /></p>

<p data-end="2067" data-start="1591">At its core, the document is attempting to reposition Bondi Junction from what it largely functions as today, a transport interchange anchored by a major retail centre, into something far more layered. The ambition is to transform it into what the plan describes as the “civic and cultural heart of Sydney’s East,” a place that is active beyond commuting hours and capable of supporting a broader mix of uses, experiences and communities.</p>

<p data-end="2123" data-start="2069">That repositioning is built around four key ambitions.</p>

<p data-end="2424" data-start="2125">The first is to create a true destination. Bondi Junction already attracts significant foot traffic, with more than 86,000 daily transport users and millions of annual retail visits, but much of that activity is transient. People pass through, rather than stay.</p>

<p data-end="2897" data-start="2426">The Master Plan seeks to change that dynamic. It leans heavily into the idea of an “18-hour economy,” extending activity well beyond traditional retail hours through dining, cultural programming, events, and a more active night-time offering. This is not just about adding more hospitality venues, but about fundamentally shifting how the centre operates, from a daytime shopping destination to a place that functions across the full span of the day and into the evening.</p>

<p data-end="2951" data-start="2899">Oxford Street Mall sits at the centre of that shift.</p>

<p data-end="3478" data-start="2953">Long seen as underperforming relative to its potential, the Mall is identified as one of the key catalyst projects in the plan. It is to be reimagined as a day-to-night spine, combining retail, dining, wellness and cultural uses in a way that creates a continuous flow of activity. Outdoor dining, rooftop venues, laneway activation and a curated events program are all part of the strategy, alongside significant public domain upgrades that aim to improve comfort, safety and usability.</p>

<p data-end="3478" data-start="2953">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="3562" data-start="3480">The second ambition is to transform Bondi Junction into a world-class interchange.</p>

<p data-end="3890" data-start="3564">Despite being one of the most heavily used transport nodes in Sydney, the current experience is fragmented. Connections between the station, Westfield, Oxford Street Mall and surrounding streets are often unclear, and major roads create physical barriers that disrupt pedestrian movement.</p>

<p data-end="4240" data-start="3892">The Master Plan proposes a more seamless, people-focused network. That includes clearer pedestrian links, improved wayfinding, better integration between transport modes, and a rethinking of how arrival into the centre is experienced. The aim is to shift the perception of Bondi Junction from a place people move through, to a place they arrive in.</p>

<p data-end="4296" data-start="4242">The third ambition focuses on greening and open space.</p>

<p data-end="4709" data-start="4298">One of the more consistent pieces of community feedback throughout the Vision phase was the need for more greenery, better public spaces, and a more comfortable urban environment. Despite being surrounded by major parks, Bondi Junction itself has relatively limited accessible open space, with much of the public realm dominated by hard surfaces and traffic infrastructure.</p>

<p data-end="5076" data-start="4711">The plan responds with a network of new and upgraded public spaces, increased tree canopy, and what it terms the “Parkline,” a green link connecting Waverley Park through to Centennial Park. This is not just about aesthetics. It is about addressing heat, improving liveability, and ensuring that increased density is matched by access to high-quality outdoor space.</p>

<p data-end="5183" data-start="5078">The fourth ambition is perhaps the most important from a development perspective: growth that gives back.</p>

<p data-end="5501" data-start="5185">Bondi Junction is already the primary location for new housing supply in the Waverley LGA, and that is expected to continue. The area carries a target of 2,400 new dwellings by 2029, with further growth projected beyond that as demand for well-located housing continues to rise. The Master Plan does not seek to limit that growth. Instead, it attempts to shape it.</p>

<p data-end="5842" data-start="5590">New housing is to be concentrated around transport, with stepped building heights designed to protect the character of surrounding neighbourhoods. At the same time, the plan introduces a more explicit link between development uplift and public benefit. This is where value capture becomes central.</p>

<p data-end="6327" data-start="5890">The document outlines a framework where increased development potential is tied to contributions that fund public domain improvements, community infrastructure, open space, and affordable housing. It is an approach that recognises that much of the transformation of Bondi Junction will be delivered by the private sector, but seeks to ensure that the benefits of that growth are shared more broadly. The Civic Precinct is a key part of that equation.</p>

<p data-end="6732" data-start="6381">Leveraging Council-owned land, the plan proposes a consolidated civic and cultural hub centred around Ebley Street. This would include new community facilities, cultural spaces, and potentially a new Council Chambers, creating a focal point for civic life that currently does not exist in Bondi Junction at scale.</p>

<p data-end="6980" data-start="6734">It is one of several catalyst projects identified in the Master Plan, alongside the Oxford Street Mall transformation. These projects are intended to anchor change, acting as early interventions that unlock broader investment across the precinct.</p>

<p data-end="7137" data-start="6982">Importantly, the Master Plan is not just a design document. It includes a delivery framework that sets out how these ambitions are intended to be realised.</p>

<p data-end="7519" data-start="7139">Council is explicit in acknowledging that it cannot deliver the transformation alone. Implementation will require coordination between State agencies, private developers, landowners and the community, with a mix of planning agreements, infrastructure contributions and direct delivery mechanisms used to fund and stage improvements over time.</p>

<p data-end="7843" data-start="7556">The plan outlines a mix of short-term, medium-term and long-term actions, from immediate public domain upgrades and planning controls, through to larger-scale projects that will unfold over the next decade or more. In practical terms, the next 12 to 24 months will be the most important.</p>

<p data-end="8108" data-start="7845">This is when the Master Plan will move through exhibition, refinement and eventual adoption. It is also the period in which Council will seek to embed the framework into its planning controls, giving it weight in the assessment of future development applications.</p>

<p data-end="8528" data-start="8161">Council officers have indicated that once the Master Plan is in place, it could be used as a benchmark when assessing Housing Delivery Authority proposals, and potentially reduce the need for further HDA declarations within Bondi Junction. In effect, it is an attempt to bring planning control back to the local level, while still aligning with State housing targets.</p>

<p data-end="8654" data-start="8530">That tension between State-led reform and local planning control is not unique to Waverley. It is playing out across Sydney.</p>

<p data-end="8710" data-start="8656">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="8710" data-start="8656">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="9626" data-start="9587">&nbsp;</p>

<p data-end="10207" data-start="9884">If delivered as intended, Bondi Junction will become denser, more active, and more complex. It will support more residents, more workers, and a wider range of uses, extending beyond its current retail core into a more layered urban environment.</p>


“The civic and cultural heart of Sydney’s East”: Bondi Junction masterplan revealed

<p>Toorak's dress circle St Georges Road, home to some of the city's priciest homes, is set for a rare new apartment development.</p>

<p>Blood Diamond Group, an entity tied to Tina Brandi, wife of David Brandi who has been a prolific bidder on The Block over the years, has filed plans for an ultra-exclusive development across an amalgamated 3,662 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/104-106-st-georges-road-toorak-vic-3142">104 and 106 St Georges Road</a>.</p>

<p>The proposal would replace two existing homes on the riverfront site with a five-level apartment building cascading down the steeply sloping land toward the Yarra River. Designed by Charles Wright Architects, the development has been carefully shaped around the site’s topography and river environs, with the upper levels stepping back to reduce visual bulk from both St Georges Road and the Yarra corridor.</p>

<p>Planning documents describe the proposal as “a site layout and building typology that is consistent with the emerging character of the area and which provides exceptional amenity for future residents without compromising that of neighbouring properties.”&nbsp;</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Blood Diamond Group unveils riverfront apartment plans for Toorak Pavilion" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ea19a17e-7528-4fa8-b727-05f2f7c025e5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Toorak%20pavilion%20a_0.png?VersionId=rZ2IjdoUL_UrRl1sZ4wZHnQXbYUaEmUQ" /></p>

<p>The scheme comprises 12 apartments, including 10 three-bedroom residences, one one-bedroom apartment, and a substantial split-level five-bedroom penthouse. A 624 sqm communal rooftop terrace will crown the building, while three undercroft levels embedded into the hillside will accommodate apartments and basement parking.</p>

<p>The design leverages the site’s dramatic northern outlook across the Yarra River, with living areas and balconies oriented toward the water. A central atrium running the full height of the building is intended to draw natural light deep into the residences and improve internal amenity.</p>

<p>Landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo Design &amp; Landscape</a> will play a major role in softening the built form, particularly along the river edge where significant setbacks have been introduced. The proposal includes a minimum 30-metre setback from the Yarra River boundary, preserving a substantial landscaped buffer between the development and the waterway.</p>

<p>While a mature English Oak near the front of the site is proposed for removal, the plans retain a large English Elm closer to the riverfront, alongside other established vegetation in the lower section of the property.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Blood Diamond Group unveils riverfront apartment plans for Toorak Pavilion" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ed3bf19b-5bc7-482f-bde7-41f709a13c3a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Toorak%20pavilion%20b.png?VersionId=SG_kBGu4rOaSPY8FtVcmPJfSCrstuOfg" /></p>

<p>Architecturally, the building adopts strong horizontal forms with expansive glazing and curved balcony edges facing the river. Planning documents note the upper levels “adopt a receding form” to ensure the building responds appropriately to the Yarra River environs overlay controls.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The surrounding streetscape is characterised by large contemporary homes embedded into the hillside, many presenting as modest one or two-storey forms to the street before expanding toward the river frontage below. The planning report notes this established pattern heavily influenced the massing strategy for Toorak Pavilion.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Until the recent sale of the landmark Clendon Road mansion Coonac for around $130 million, St Georges Road held the state's most expensive home, the $80,000,088 derelict "Ghost House" mansion that was bought by crypto king Ed Craven.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Blair House, also on St Georges Road, sold for $74.5 million in 2022.</p>


First look: Toorak Pavilions slated for dress circle St Georges Road

<p data-end="205" data-start="54">Six months after a development site on Kangaroo Point’s Shafston Avenue sold for $6.55 million, plans have been lodged for a 23-storey apartment tower.</p>

<p data-end="443" data-start="207">A company named JMT Mega Capital, understood to be interstate investors when the 1,222 sqm double block traded late last year through Patona Property, is proposing an 84-apartment development in place of the existing low-rise buildings.</p>

<p data-end="694" data-start="445">The slender tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/212-220-shafston-avenue-east-brisbane-qld-4169">212–220 Shafston Avenue</a>, overlooking the Brisbane River, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/aplus-design-group">Aplus Design Group</a>. It will comprise a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments above six basement levels, topped by rooftop resident amenities.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7e17ba9e-553e-42ef-92b6-22081671521a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/podium_3.png?VersionId=hlVUf99vrOjUs.vhQs0qV0DhOncUy9T8" /></p>

<p>The development has been designed as a vertically articulated tower with recessed balconies, curved façades and planted edges intended to soften its scale within the evolving Shafston Avenue skyline. In the submitted Urban Design Report, Aplus Design Group said the tower had been “shaped with a slender vertical expression, articulated façades, recessed balcony zones, integrated planting and a clearly defined podium relationship, helping to reduce perceived bulk and create a more elegant contribution to the Shafston Avenue streetscape and broader Kangaroo Point skyline.”</p>

<p>The scheme comprises 84 apartments, including 25 one-bedroom units, 34 two-bedroom apartments and 25 three-bedroom residences. A total of 104 car spaces are proposed across six basement levels, including resident, visitor and accessible parking.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to rooftop communal open space and shared amenities, while the development also incorporates deep planting zones and subtropical landscaping throughout the podium and tower levels. The project includes 35 per cent communal space coverage across the site and a 17.5 per cent deep soil zone allocation to support urban greening outcomes.</p>

<p>The application exceeds the mapped building height under the Kangaroo Point Peninsula Neighbourhood Plan and is being assessed under Brisbane City Council’s impact assessment pathway. The design team argues the additional height is supported by the site’s strategic inner-city location, existing high-density zoning, and proximity to transport and employment hubs.</p>

<p>“The design has been developed to make better use of a well-serviced urban site within an established high-density residential setting, while improving the street presentation and overall quality of the public realm interface,” the report states.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1ab44b1e-ff45-4bf3-8da8-8aa0cd79db33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_10.png?VersionId=tSxeGekZOqj1e9g3PEn_yFoC3taKDp3U" /></p>

<p>The proposal adds to a growing pipeline of apartment developments reshaping Kangaroo Point ahead of the 2032 Brisbane Olympic Games, with demand continuing to strengthen for new housing supply in well-connected inner-city precincts.</p>

<p>Mosaic has nearly sold out its under-construction <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-bedford-by-mosaic-16-30-prospect-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Bedford by Mosaic</a>&nbsp;and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-carter-by-mosaic-77-linton-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Carter</a>,&nbsp;while Pikos recently completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/skye-residences-by-pikos-kangaroo-point-8-river-terrace-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Skye Residences</a> nearby. Pikos is also delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gaia-kangaroo-point-108-lambert-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Gaia</a>, over 230 three- and four-bedroom apartments on Lambert Street.</p>


First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point apartment tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct

Housing Loans

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<div class="column">GUEST OBSERVER</div>
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<div class="column">The number of loans (commitments) for budding home owners (owner-occupiers) rose by 0.9 percent in November after falling by 0.6 percent in October. It was only the second rise in lending in five months. </div>
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<div class="column">The value of loans rose by 2.2 percent in November with owner loans up 0.4 percent and investor loans up 4.9 percent.</div>
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<br>The ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating eased from four-month highs, falling by 0.7 per cent to 119.3 in the week to January 15. Confidence is up 4.6 per cent over the year and well above the average of 113.1 since 2014.</div>
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<br>The inflation expectation 2 years ahead was at 4.6 per cent, a 13-month high. Inflation expectations has now held above 4 per cent for the past 5 months.</div>
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<br>The Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that new vehicle sales rose by 0.3 per cent in December. The CommSec Luxury Vehicle index hit record highs in 2016 with sales of 17 luxury marques up 12.1 percent on a year ago. </div>
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<p>On its own, the lift in home loans doesn’t look overly concerning – especially given it was only the second rise in the past five months. But couple it with the lift in home prices in the latter part of last year and it suggests that the housing landscape may continue to cause policymakers a little bit of angst over 2017. Even more so when you delve a bit deeper into the data and realise that the lift in the value of loans was largely driven by investors.</p>
<p>The value of loans by investors surged by 4.9 per cent in November to be up 21.4 over the year – the strongest annual growth in 19 months.</p>
<p>If home prices continue to lift, with growth largely driven by investor loans, regulators may look at further restrictions to curb lending.</p>
<p>Household confidence remains just shy of recent four month highs. And more importantly confidence is holding well above longer-term averages. In particular, the measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item lifted to the highest levels in five months. No doubt the discounts offered by retailers post-Christmas are enticing households to spend a little bit more freely. </p>
<p>Interestingly the inflation expectation 2 years ahead was at 4.6 per cent in the past week - a 13-month high. Inflation expectations have now held above 4 per cent for the past 5 months. There is no doubt that inflationary pressures have bottomed out and are likely to start lifting.</p>
<p>Annual new vehicle sales are just shy of recent record highs, suggestive of underlying strength in business and consumer sentiment and finances. But the trends aren’t uniform with sales of sports utility vehicles consistently setting new highs while passenger car sales have now fallen to 20- year lows in rolling annual terms. </p>
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<div class="column">What do the figures show?</div>
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<div class="column">Housing finance - number</div>
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<div class="column">The number of loans (commitments) for budding home owners (owner-occupiers) rose by 0.9 per cent in November after falling by 0.6 per cent in October. It was only the second rise in lending in five months. Excluding the refinancing of dwellings, the number of loans was up by 2.1 per cent.<br><ul>
<li>  The number of new home loans was down by 2.6 per cent on a year ago.</li>
<li>  Loans by owner-occupiers for the construction of homes rose by 2.3 per cent in November.</li>
<li>  Loans to buy newly-erected dwellings rose by 3.3 per cent.</li>
<li>  Loans for the purchase of established dwellings (excluding refinancing) rose by 2.0 per cent.</li>
<li>  The number of refinancing transactions fell by 1.2 per cent.</li>
</ul>
<p>Lending across states/territories in November: NSW (+1.5 per cent); Victoria (+0.8 per cent); Queensland (+2.4 per cent); South Australia (-1.3 per cent), Western Australia (-0.7 per cent); Tasmania (-1.0 per cent); Northern Territory (+2.7 per cent); ACT (+0.2 per cent).</p>
<p>Housing finance - value</p>
The value of new housing commitments (owner occupier and investment) rose by 2.2 per cent in November after rising by 0.5 per cent in October. Owner-occupier loans rose by 0.4 per cent but investment loans rose by 4.9 per cent.<br><p>The value of loans by owner-occupiers and investors to build new homes rose by 14.2 per cent in November after falling by 1.7 per cent in October. The value of loans to build new homes rose to an 8-month high of $3.07 billion in November.</p>
<p>Housing finance – other statistics</p>
<p>The proportion of first-time buyers in the home loan market rose from 13.7 per cent to 13.8 per cent in November (long-term average 19.4 per cent).</p>
The proportion of fixed rate loans eased from 12.8 per cent to 12.5 per cent in November. And the average home loan across Australia stood at $376,600 in November, up 3.6 per cent in the month but down 1.6 per cent on a year ago.</div>
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<p><span>Consumer confidence </span></p>
<p>The ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating eased from four-month highs, falling by 0.7 per cent to 119.3 in the week to January 15. Confidence is up 4.6 per cent over the year and well above the average of 113.1 since 2014. Two of the five components of the index rose in the latest week:</p>
<ul>
<li>  The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was down from +13 to +8;</li>
<li>  The estimate of family finances over the next year was down from +33 to +32;</li>
<li>  Economic conditions over the next 12 months was unchanged at +2;</li>
<li>  Economic conditions over the next 5 years was up from +11 to +12;</li>
<li>  The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up from +41 to +43 – the strongest reading in 5 months.</li>
</ul>
<p>In addition the inflation expectation 2 years ahead was at 4.6 per cent, a 13-month high. Inflation expectations has now held above 4 per cent for the past 5 months.</p>
<p>New car sales:</p>
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) new vehicle sales rose by 0.3 per cent in December after falling by 0.7 per cent in November. Passenger car sales rose by 3.6 per cent, while sales of sports utility vehicles fell by 3.3 per cent and sales of “other” vehicles (includes utilities, panel vans, cab chassis, goods carrying vans, rigid trucks, prime movers, non-freight carrying trucks, and buses) rose by 0.7 per cent.</div>
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<br>New vehicles sales were up by 0.2 per cent over the year. Passenger car sales in December were down by 4.2 per cent over the year, while SUVs sales were unchanged and “other vehicles” were up by 10 per cent.<br><p>In rolling annual terms, 1,178,133 new vehicles were sold over the 2016 calendar year. Sales of SUVs (441,023) eased from record highs in annual terms, while annual sales of “other” vehicles stood at a record high of 250,853. Sales of passenger vehicles fell to a 20-year low of 486,257 in the year to December.</p>
<p>CommSec Luxury Vehicle index</p>
The CommSec Luxury vehicle index hit record highs in 2016. Sales of 17 luxury marques totalled a record 106,658 units in 2016, up 12.1 per cent on a year ago. Luxury vehicles now account for 9.17 per cent of total vehicle sales and a record 11.50 per cent of passenger cars and SUVs alone.</div>
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<br>The CommSec Luxury vehicle index includes Audi, Aston Martin, BMW, Bentley, Ferrari, Hummer, Jaguar, Lamborghini, Lexus, Lotus, Maserati, Maybach, Mercedes-Benz, Mclaren, Porsche and Rolls Royce.</div>
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<br>In 2016 record sales were recorded by Audi, BMW, Ferrari, Jaguar, Lamborghini and McLaren.<br><p>Luxury auto sales have been running at a double-digit annual rate for almost four years.</p>
<p>What is the importance of the economic data?</p>
Housing Finance data is produced monthly by the Bureau of Statistics and shows commitments by lenders, such as banks, to provide finance for housing purposes. The lending figures relate to those looking to buy or build homes to live in as well as those seeking to buy or build homes for investment purposes. Generally people get their finance organised first, so the figures are regarded as a leading indicator on the housing market.</div>
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<br>The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.<br><p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics provides seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of industry data. The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries releases estimates of car sales on the third business day of the month. The figures highlight the strength of consumer spending as well as conditions facing auto &amp; components companies.</p>
<p>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</p>
<p> Looking forward, policymakers will keep a close eye on how the rebalancing of the domestic economy (away from mining investment) is keeping pace. Inflation and housing activity are likely to be closely watched over 2017. </p>
<p><em>Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a></em></p>
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Investor loans soar, inflation makes a comeback: CommSec's Savanth Sebastian

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<p>National Australia Bank has expanded its list of postcodes across Australia where lending to property buyers will be capped due to potential risks in the housing market.</p>
<p>The loan-to-valuation ratio, or the percentage of a property's purchase price a bank will lend, will be capped at 70 percent in some areas where NAB sees a higher risk, while the other blacklisted ones (called Group B), will see an 80 percent cap. </p>
<p>The second category includes inner city areas of Australia’s capital cities, according to a recent post on <a href="https://www.domain.com.au" target="_blank">www.domain.com.au</a> citing an article in the Australian Financial Review.</p>
<p>Among the expanded list, NAB has added plenty of Queensland suburbs in the Group A category where buyers will need a 30 percent deposit for a home loan. Some of the new ones in Queensland are Auburn, Mt Pleasant, Fraser Island and Apple Tree Creek.  </p>
<p>Western Australia still has a large list, with two new entrants such as Eighty Mile Beach and St George Ranges. South Australia and Northern Territory too have more postcodes blacklisted.</p>
<p>The B list, where buyers will need a 20 per cent deposit, includes inner city suburbs in Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth.</p>
<p>The list for Sydney sees a few dropouts from the blacklist category such as Macquarie Park, East and North Ryde (2113), while there are some additions too such as The Ponds (postcode 2769).</p>
<p>Melbourne’s list remains the same such as the CBD, St Kilda’s and Docklands. Brisbane has more suburbs blacklisted in the second group such as Bowen Hills, Fortitude Valley and Woolloongabba.</p>
<p>“NAB takes into account a range of economic factors, and regularly monitors the performance of local markets to ensure we continue to lend responsibly and sustainably,” the article said citing a bank spokesman. </p>
<p>“We recognise that no two suburbs are the same, and there are some geographic areas across Australia which have been impacted by local economic conditions. As a responsible lender, we adopt strategies in these geographic areas that seek to reduce the risk to our customers and our business.” </p>
<p>The bank is still lending to borrowers in the named suburbs.</p>
<p>NAB’s expanded list comes soon after CEO Andrew Thorburn told a parliamentary inquiry into banking that net interest margins are being squeezed at a time when banks are facing higher capital requirements.</p>
<p>Lenders have also responded to pressure from the Reserve Bank of Australia, ASIC and APRA to reduce lending to higher risk investment borrowers, particularly for apartment markets in central Melbourne and Sydney, by cutting back on interest-only loans and increasing deposits to about 40 per cent of the asking price.</p>
<p>NAB, which has about five million customers, has previously warned it has 50 high-risk postcodes.</p>
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Where NAB expanded its blacklisted 600 suburb list for home loans

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<p>The number of prime Australian housing loans in arrears has risen for the fifth consecutive month, figures according to the Standard &amp; Poor’s Performance Index (SPIN) show.</p>
<p>Not by much as 1.13 percent of prime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) were in arrears during March – up from 1.11 percent in February.</p>
<p>“While a decline in outstanding loan balances during the month would have affected this movement, the dollar value of loans in arrears increased, resulting in prime arrears being up overall,” S&amp;P noted.</p>
<p>The proportion of full-doc loans rose to 1.09 per ent in March from 1.07 percent a month earlier.</p>
<p>According to S&amp;P, the SPIN for low-documentation loans meanwhile fell 14 basis points in March to 4.41 percent, with part of the decline reflecting a rise of around 2 percent in outstanding loan balances,” the agency said.</p>
<p>“Low-doc loans represent around 1.3 percent of total loans outstanding that underlie prime RMBS transactions – down from a peak of 13.2 percent in January 2008.”</p>
<p>Regional banks experienced the largest decline in arrears of all loan originator types – down 13 basis points to 2.02 percent – while the major banks’ SPIN rose 7 basis points to 1.01 percent.</p>
<p>Arrears remain below their decade-long average of 1.25 percent, S&amp;P advised.</p>
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Mortgage arrears continue slight upward trend

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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">GUEST OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Lending: Total new loans (personal, business, housing &amp; lease) rose by 0.7 percent in March after a 3 per</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">cent rise in February. Lending was just 3.9 percent shy of the 7½-year high recorded in November 2015.</span></p>
<p>Total lending is up 1.6 percent on a year ago.</p>
<p>Within personal fixed finance commitments, loans for new cars were up by 20.4 percent on a year earlier <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">while loans for used cars were up 15.5 percent. Loans for residential blocks of land were up by 9.1 per</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">cent on a year ago.</span></p>
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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="/images/2016/05/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-13%20at%2012.53.10%20PM.png" alt=""> </span></p>
<p>The lending figures have implications for finance providers, retailers, and companies dependent on consumer and business <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">spending.</span></p>
<p>What does it all mean?</p>
<p>Similar to the housing finance data early this week, the lending statistics is essentially old news – pre Reserve B<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">ank interest rate cut. In fact the shift in Reserve Bank commentary to a lower inflation profile suggests that </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">further interest rate cuts are on the cards. And in that context very likely to support further lending not just in </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">housing but across the business sector as well.</span></p>
<p>The lift in borrowing across the economy in March is encouraging coming of the back of solid gains in February.</p>
<p>Overall, total lending is just shy of 7½-year highs recorded in late 2015. While lending remains healthy the hope <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">would be that business borrowings lift from here - driving investment and supporting medium term growth.</span></p>
<p>The generational low interest rates will be supportive of further borrowing – but there is no guarantee. While <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Reserve Bank policymakers would be hoping that the latest rate cut spurs another round of activity, they would be </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">well aware that borrowers are cautious about taking on more debt. And lower interest rates compress bank </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">margins, affecting profits and potentially investment, employment and shareholder returns.</span></p>
<p>Unfortunately elections cause consumers and businesses to hold back on spending, employment and investment <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">plans, and that is the risk to the positive momentum that has built up in recent months. CommSec expects that the </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">low inflation outlook will result in further cuts to the cash rate. Rate cuts have been pencilled in for August and </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">November.</span></p>
<p>What do the figures show?</p>
<p>Lending Finance</p>
<p>Total new loans  (personal, business, housing &amp; lease) rose by 0.7 percent in March after a 3 percent rise in <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">February. Lending was just 3.9 percent shy of the 7½-year high recorded in November. Total lending is up 1.6 </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">percent on a year ago.</span></p>
<p>Housing finance:  The seasonally adjusted measure of construction and new purchases fell by 1.2 percent in <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">March while alterations &amp; additions rose by 0.4 per cent. Home loans are up 11.9 percent on a year.</span></p>
<p>Commercial finance : The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total commercial finance commitments rose <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">by 0.9 percent in March after rising by 4.8 per cent in February. Revolving credit commitments rose by 2.3 per</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">cent. Fixed lending commitments rose by 0.4 percent. Business loans are down 2.2 percent over the year.</span></p>
<p>Personal finance : The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total personal finance commitments rose by <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">6.3 percent in March after falling by 2.9 percent in February. Revolving credit commitments rose by 11.9 percent </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">and fixed lending commitments rose by 3 per cent. Personal loans are down 1.9 percent over the year.</span></p>
<p>Within personal fixed finance commitments, loans for new cars were up by 20.4 percent on a year earlier <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">while loans for used cars were up 15.5 percent. Loans for residential blocks of land were up by 9.1 percent on a </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">year ago.</span></p>
<p>Lease finance : Lending fell by 7.7 percent in March and was up 0.8 percent over the year.</p>
<p>What is the importance of the economic data?</p>
<p>Lending Finance  is released monthly by the Bureau of Statistics and contains figures on new housing, personal, <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">commercial and lease finance commitments. The importance of the data lies in what it reveals about the </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">appropriateness of interest rate settings, confidence and spending levels in the economy.</span></p>
<p>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</p>
<p>At present the national economy is tracking ok. Economic growth is healthy and more encouragingly <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">unemployment is at a 2½-year low. However the concern for policymakers is that the deflationary environment </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">becomes more firmly entrenched in coming quarters. A sustained super low inflation landscape will lead to low </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">inflationary expectations over time and in turn a shift in asset allocation.</span></p>
<p>The bottom line is that underlying inflation is undershooting the 2-3 percent target band and that suggests little <span style="line-height: 1.3em;">risk in cutting rates a little further. CommSec believes there is a strong chance the Reserve Bank will cut interest </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">rates twice more this year, taking the cash rate to a historical low of 1.25 percent by in November.</span></p>
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<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><em>Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</em></span></p>
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Personal loans drive lift in lending: CommSec's Savanth Sebastian

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<div class="column"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">GUEST OBSERVER</span></div>
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<div class="column"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The latest lending statistics show a mild consolidation in July, although the result is not a cause for concern – especially given that lending is holding just 4% shy of the seven-year highs reached in April. </span></div>
<div class="column"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></div>
<div class="column"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The real driver of lending over the past year has been the housing sector and in that context it is investor housing that has driven the strength. However the tighter bank lending standards are starting to have an impact in terms of the housing finance data - loans for construction of new dwellings has now fallen for three consecutive months.</span></div>
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<br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">It is important to realise while housing activity will continue to be the backbone of the economy over the coming year, it is starting to show signs of starting to cool – especially when it comes to irrational exuberance. If there is an anticipated pullback in home lending policymakers would be hoping that activity amongst the business sector lifts from here.</span>
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<br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">There would be mild disappointment in the fall in business loans in July. Commercial loans are now down 5% on a year ago. Business conditions are healthy, however businesses are still rather tentative about borrowing. The key driver of future lending will be an ongoing improvement in labour market conditions, rise in </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">business hiring intentions and lift in consumer confidence. </span>
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<div class="column"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The Reserve Bank will dominate headlines next week with a number of releases and speeches. However the focus will be squarely on the Reserve Bank Governor, when he testifies in front of the House of Representatives Economics Committee on Friday. It will be interesting to see the Governors views when it comes to the non- mining business investment and how the housing sector is likely to evolve with the tighter lending standards. CommSec expects no change in interest rates over the next year.</span></div>
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<p><span>What do the figures show? </span></p>
<p><span>Lending finance </span></p>
<p><span>Total new lending commitments (housing, personal, commercial and lease finance) fell by 0.1% in August to $74.1 billion after a 1.3% rise in June. New loans are down 1.1% over the year.</span></p>
<p><span>Housing finance: The seasonally adjusted measure of construction and new purchases rose by 2.2% in July while alterations &amp; additions rose by 0.9%. Home loans are up 13.4% on a year.</span></p>
<p><span>Commercial finance: The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total commercial finance commitments fell by 2.7% in July. Revolving credit commitments fell by 13% while fixed lending commitments fell by 0.9%. Business loans are down 5% over the year.</span></p>
<p><span>Personal finance: The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total personal finance commitments fell by 2.6% in July after rising by 0.9% in June. Revolving credit commitments rose by 2.6% and fixed lending commitments fell by 5.8%. Personal loans are down 12.7% over the year. Within personal fixed finance commitments, finance for used cars was down 2.3% on a year earlier while loans for new cars were up by 8.8%.</span></p>
<p><span>Lease finance: Lending rose by 60.2% in July. Lease finance rose by 68.9% over the year. What is the importance of the economic data?</span></p>
<p><span>Lending Finance is released monthly by the Bureau of Statistics and contains figures on new housing, personal, commercial and lease finance commitments. The importance of the data lies in what it reveals about the appropriateness of interest rate settings, confidence and spending levels in the economy.</span></p>
<p><span>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</span></p>
<p><span>The Reserve Bank would be comfortable about the mix of borrowings: Aussie businesses are tentatively borrowing - in a measured way. Still, the Reserve Bank would be watching the recent drop in consumer confidence a lot more closely.</span></p>
<p><span>The weaker Aussie dollar is providing solid stimulus to the economy at present and the Reserve Bank will continue to assess the impact on the economy over the next few months. CommSec expects no change to interest rates over the coming year. </span></p>
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<p><em><span>Savanth Sebastian is an economist for CommSec. You can follow him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/commsec" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></em></p>
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Tighter bank lending standards showing impact: Savanth Sebastian

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<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">APRA </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">released</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> its latest property exposures figures for the June 2015 quarter today, which confirmed an ongoing surge in new housing loans. </span>
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<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>As at June 2015 the total of residential term loans to households held by all institutions (ADIs) was $1.33 trillion. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>In total this represented an increase of +$31.8 billion (+2.4%) from the prior quarter, and a solid increase of +$97.1 billion (+7.9%) over the year to June.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>There were a total of 5.4 million loans outstanding, with an average balance of $243,000.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Investment loans surging higher</span></strong></span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Investment loans totalled $518.3 billion, an increase of +$17.7 billion (+3.5%) from the March quarter and massive +$81.1 billion (+18.6%) from one year ago.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>That's huge, and well ahead of the rate that the regulator would or should be comfortable with.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Interestingly while loans held by the major banks increased by +7.5% over the past year to $1,076 billion, loans held by other domestic banks increased by a much faster +18.8% pace to $155 billion.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>The major banks still accounted for close to 80 per cent of the domestic new housing loan market, however, with the remainder of the market comprising other banks, credit unions and particularly building societies.</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<span>It should be noted that there have been a few issues relating to the reclassification of loans between owner-occupied and investment loans, with material revisions (&gt;10%) pushed through for the September 2014 to March 2015 quarters relating to ANZ and National Australia Bank.</span><br><span><br></span><span>You can see the jump in the chart below. </span><br><span><br></span><span>This has had the impact of accentuating the rate of increase in investment loans while dampening the growth in owner-occupier loans. </span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>In any case the trend in <strong>total </strong>loans outstanding since March 2008 has been more than clear, with total residential term loan exposures captured by this data more than doubling over that time.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>This is at least partly because the investor segment of the market often opts to amass new debt rather than paying loan balances down, particularly because Australia has prevailing tax legislation which encourages this behaviour.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/26/APRA1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/08/26/APRA1.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>The data revealed that the overwhelming majority of new housing loans in the quarter at 89.3 per cent of new loans were of a loan to value ratio (LVR) of 90 per cent or lower. </div>
<br><div>As denoted by the pink area in the chart below there has been a surge in the number of borrowers using 20 to 40% deposits, now accounting for more than half of new housing loans in the last quarter.<br><br>This may imply that "cashed up" property owners with deep pools of equity are buying investment property at the expense of first time buyers who must save their deposits. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>More than one fifth of new loans in the quarter had a very low loan to value ratio of just 60% or lower.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/08/26/APRA2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/08/26/APRA2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Higher risk "low doc" loans continued to represent only a tiny fraction of the Australian mortgage market in the June quarter at 0.4 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Market risks</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>With very few low doc loans written and the overwhelming majority of loans being written with deposits ranging from 10 to 40 per cent, where lies the risk?</div>
<div> </div>
<div>After all, it is hardly as though the market is highly leveraged in aggregate with aro<span>und <span>~</span>$1.4 trill</span>ion of debt sitting against a stonking $6 trillion residential housing market.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>For my money, in terms of the residential mortgage market the answer is that the risk lies in the very high percentage and concentration of interest only loans, whereby typically no repayments are made against the principal in the first five years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It is true that loans with offset facilities are continuing to flourish, but nevertheless a whopping 45.8% of new housing loans written in the June 2015 quarter were of the interest only variety.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although only 4% of new housing loans in the June quarter were written outside serviceability, it would not be a surprise to see APRA looking more closely at the elevated percentage of interest only loans with renewed interest.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
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