Mark and Roy Makari are expanding their presence in Sydney’s South West with a second major proposal for Leppington, this time envisioning a 900-dwelling mixed-use development just 850 metres from their previously lodged tower trio on Fifth Avenue.

The latest application seeks approval for a multi-building project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/230-rickard-road-leppington-nsw-2179">230 Rickard Road, Leppington</a>. The proposal seeks to establish a new focal point for the precinct through a high-density, transit-oriented development supported by diverse land uses.

According to the Scoping Report prepared for the Department of Planning, the scheme includes around 900 apartments across multiple towers, including 135 dwellings designated for affordable housing. A mix of market and subsidised apartments will be supported by ground-level activation through retail and office space, a childcare centre, and a hotel, forming a comprehensive urban precinct.

<img alt="Mixed Use Development 230 Rickard Rd Leppington" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="34797362-f3dc-4d84-8235-2657fc5f3bde" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Plan.png?VersionId=Uzckrz9tUpDQl5lX1_WMhjnv16bsr8wG" />

The Design Report by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/studiosc-0">Studio SC</a> notes that the project “intends to deliver a high-quality, high-density built form that supports the vision for the Leppington Town Centre, integrating mixed-use outcomes and public domain upgrades.” The development is expected to be delivered in stages, although a precise timeline is yet to be confirmed.

The project will be assessed through a future State Significant Development Application, with the Scoping Report indicating the team will seek design excellence via a competitive process or through an expert design review panel. Early massing diagrams suggest a series of mid- to high-rise buildings framing a central landscaped spine, with emphasis on pedestrian permeability and public space.

The planning documentation flags a strong sustainability agenda, stating that the development will “respond to the urban heat island effect, incorporate water sensitive urban design, and prioritise active transport”.

<img alt="Mixed Use Development 230 Rickard Rd Leppington" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="369d7b54-1279-4cde-88ec-dcb215594414" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Podium_1.png?VersionId=QArL7B2kkLt63vl5xvL0FNV_ardAlez4" />

The proposal follows in the footsteps of the Makaris’ nearby Fifth Avenue site, where they’ve submitted plans for three towers comprising nearly 500 apartments, with 10 per cent dedicated to affordable housing. That project features commercial podiums, a childcare centre, and a new public park that would occupy more than a third of the site.

Both developments are situated within walking distance of Leppington Train Station and fall under strategic precinct plans promoting higher density housing. The town centre is undergoing substantial transformation, driven by state government planning reforms aimed at fast-tracking housing delivery.

Together, the two projects represent a combined ambition of nearly 1,400 new homes across just under two kilometres of central Leppington.

Staff Writer

First look: 900-home mixed-use precinct planned for Leppington

Leading Australian integrated property development group, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a>, has released the signature penthouses crowning its landmark AURA by Aqualand precinct at 168 Walker Street in North Sydney, unveiling Il Magnate and La Divina as the largest and most luxurious penthouses in the suburb.

With prices anticipated to commence from $15 million, and each accompanied by a new Porsche Carrera 911 valued at over $500K, the residences mark the culmination of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/aura-by-aqualand-north-sydney-168-walker-street-north-sydney-nsw-2060">AURA by Aqualand</a>’s decade-long journey and the beginning of its final sales chapter. 
&nbsp; 
Their release follows more than $850 million in record-breaking residential sales and the building’s completion and occupation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=358868]

The Richards Stanisich-designed 284 sqm Il Magnate and 224 sqm La Divina penthouses, collectively known as The Icons of AURA, are conceived as grand luxury homes rather than apartments, with expansive proportions, elevated materiality and curated identities that reflect their status as one-off residences.&nbsp;

Il Magnate features a grande master suite, complete with substantial walk-in dressing area and ensuite, three other bedrooms, second ensuite and another bathroom, powder room, open plan kitchen, scullery, substantial dining area and generous living room divided by a feature fireplace, and a multifunction wintergarden, which is ideal for a study and adjoining office breakout space. &nbsp;

Meanwhile, the La Divina residence offers the same amenities, sans the powder room, on a slightly smaller alternate floor plan configuration.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=358863]

Each occupies half of AURA by Aqualand’s topmost 28th level, comes with four secure car spaces and pairs sweeping Sydney Harbour panoramas with large-scale living spaces, refined detailing and a level of craftsmanship and amenity rarely offered in the North Shore market.&nbsp;

Penthouse residents will also receive Etymon’s ‘Black Key’ private concierge and lifestyle management service, an invitation only offering providing the ultimate in bespoke personalisation, including a range of everyday discrete services, from dinner party management, grocery deliveries, pet feeding or plants watered, dinners, snacks and coffee deliveries, event ticket sourcing, right up to organising travel visas and international airfares. Rarely seen in Australian properties, the service provides residents the benefits of living in a world-class luxury hotel-style home, akin to The Ritz, or the Waldorf Astoria.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=358862]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>’s Director, Kirsten Stanisich, said the studio set out to craft residences that feel profoundly considered, contemporary and deeply connected to their setting.

“From the outset, we approached these penthouses with the sensibility of a grand Parisian residence - generous in scale, elegant in proportion and designed to feel more like a handcrafted home than an apartment," Stanisich said.

“Their elevated position and sweeping harbour outlook informed every decision, creating a rare connection between urban sophistication and natural calm. We shaped each space with expressive materiality, sculptural forms and bespoke detailing that invite touch and interaction.&nbsp;

“The result is a pair of residences defined by volume, light and an inherent softness - refined, flexible and deeply personal. These penthouses are unlike anything else in North Sydney, offering a sanctuary of true luxury framed by some of the city’s most remarkable views.”

For Aqualand’s Head of Sales &amp; Marketing, Alex Adams, the collaboration with Porsche underscores the shared ethos behind the residences.

“Aqualand’s collaboration with Porsche underpins both brand’s sharing an obsession with craftsmanship, design excellence, and enduring value," Adams said.

“Our penthouses are created for those who appreciate the finer details and expect the extraordinary at every touchpoint. Including a Porsche simply extends that experience beyond the residence - it’s a continuation of the lifestyle our buyers already live.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=292862]

Aqualand’s Managing Director, Jin Lin, said the penthouses represent both the pinnacle of AURA by Aqualand and an important design benchmark for the company’s future pipeline.&nbsp;

“These stunning penthouses reflect the purest expression of Aqualand’s design ambition," Lin said.

“The unparalleled design intent makes them not only the glistening crown of AURA by Aqualand, but the crown of North Sydney itself. They’re essentially a thank you gift to a burgeoning community that deserves this level of quality and architectural consideration.&nbsp;

“We’re leveraging the unrivalled standard set here as the foundation for what comes next, including our upcoming Anderson Street, Chatswood; 15 Blue Street, North Sydney and Central Barangaroo projects. Purchasers of these penthouses will essentially be living inside the blueprint of Aqualand’s future.

“These landmark residences demonstrate how far North Sydney has evolved and the strength of demand for highly curated, bespoke luxury homes. They’re more than penthouses, they’re legacy residences.&nbsp;

“With AURA by Aqualand now a thriving new precinct with residents well and truly settled, and our in-house world-class lifestyle amenity activated, Il Magnate and La Divina represent a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to secure an extraordinary piece of North Sydney’s future.”

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=30959]

Joel Robinson

Aqualand launches North Sydney penthouses with free Porsche Carrera 911

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/bokarina-qld-4575">Bokarina</a> Beach has quietly evolved into one of the Sunshine Coast’s most complete coastal lifestyle precincts, defined not just by proximity to the ocean, but by how residential living, local retail and everyday amenity are stitched together.&nbsp;

Gardner Vaughan Group’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bask-bokarina-38-bokarina-boulevard-bokarina-qld-4575">Bask Bokarina</a> now represents the final residential chapter in that transformation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=333360]

Over recent years, the Bokarina Beach precinct has taken shape as a walkable, community-oriented neighbourhood, anchored by beachfront access, Lake Kawana to the west, and a growing mix of cafés, specialty retail and public open space.&nbsp;

With Zinc Bokarina already delivered next door by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a> (GVG), Bask is the last opportunity to buy a brand new apartment within the precinct, effectively rounding out a fully formed coastal village.

GVG has positioned Bask to strengthen that lifestyle framework. Nine ground-floor retail spaces are planned beneath the residences, extending Bokarina Boulevard’s existing activity and reinforcing the area’s everyday convenience, from casual dining and coffee to local services, within a short walk of the beach.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=333359]

The residential component comprises 135 apartments across two buildings, Mydas and Caretta, with a clear shift toward larger three- and four-bedroom layouts and penthouses. That mix reflects a maturing buyer profile in Bokarina, where demand is increasingly led by owner-occupiers and active downsizers seeking space, permanence, and connection to place rather than short-term coastal accommodation.

Design and amenity have followed the same logic. Residents will have access to a heated plunge pool, gym, private dining room with a full kitchen, landscaped communal gardens with barbecues and a firepit, and a shared herb and vegetable garden, facilities intended to support daily use rather than resort-style turnover. Pet-friendly features, including a dog wash bay, acknowledge both buyer expectations and the area’s dog-friendly beach, located around 250 metres from the site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=333366]

“Bokarina has become one of the Sunshine Coast’s most desirable beachside communities, and Bask represents the very last chance to buy new in this location,” GVG Director Sam Gardner said.&nbsp;

“Our focus has been to create spacious, functional apartments that meet the needs of locals who want to downsize without compromise, as well as those seeking a full-time coastal retreat.”

Positioned between the Pacific Ocean and Lake Kawana, Bask apartments have been oriented to capture outlooks toward the water or the Glass House Mountains, reinforcing the project’s connection to its natural surroundings. With parks, beachfront paths, hospitals, retail and public transport already in place, Bask arrives at a point where the broader precinct is no longer emerging, but established.

Construction is expected to complete in Q3 this year, with apartments ready to move into this Spring.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=141609]

Bask to complete Bokarina’s Sunshine Coast lifestyle precinct as final apartments are released

Property development giant <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/avid-property-group">AVID Property Group</a> is approaching completion, and sell-out, of its Surry Hills apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-rathbone-23-47-flinders-street-surry-hills-nsw-2010">The Rathbone</a>.

The Flinders St project has sold well over half of its 32 apartments, which will sit above two retail spaces.

Now hitting the market are the final 14 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, which start from $1.15 million. AVID is targeting a mid-2026 completion.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5947 project_image_fid=51208]

AVID General Manager New South Wales Danny Boubli said as more apartments are introduced to increase housing options in inner-city areas, homebuyers are searching for a &nbsp;sense of belonging in addition to location, convenience and value.&nbsp;

“There are very few opportunities for new developments in Surry Hills, and since acquiring the site, we’ve even seen one early purchaser merge two apartments plans together, reflecting the demand for a spacious, premium offering in a prime location,” Boubli said.&nbsp;

“Demand has been strong since we launched to market – we don’t see these final apartments staying on the market for long.”&nbsp;

Architectural firm Studio SC has designed the building which pays homage to the former 1900s Rathbone Terraces that once sat on the 990 sqm island site.

Boubil said the team has made every effort to create "truly liveable apartments", through&nbsp;functional floor plans, security, storage, and the inclusion of quality fittings.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5947 project_image_fid=51207]

&nbsp;

Sustainable design has also been implemented throughout the development, with natural light flooding each apartment, ventilation throughout, extensive landscaping and where possible, materials with a high level of recycled content and low volatile organic compound paints have been used. &nbsp;

Apartments range in size from 57 sqm for the one-bedrooms to the large-scale 165 sqm three-beds which are priced at $2,575,000.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5947]

AVID launches final apartments at The Rathbone, Surry Hills

A wave of investment, renewal and precinct growth continues to shape the northern edge of Macquarie Park, where daily life is supported by a rare combination of university activity, corporate employment, major retail, and expansive green corridors. It’s this convergence of amenity and connectivity underpins the setting for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a>, which has now topped out and is tracking toward completion in mid-2026.

Within this pocket of the precinct, residents move easily between the area’s key anchors. Macquarie Centre, home to more than 360 retailers, fresh food offerings, dining and entertainment, sits at the heart of local convenience and functions as a major transport interchange. The Metro, T1 rail line and extensive bus network place much of Sydney within quick reach, while surrounding arterial links support direct access to neighbouring districts.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=5829]

Green space remains a defining feature of the immediate environment. Lane Cove National Park stretches along the northern boundary of the precinct, offering bushland trails, cycling routes and quiet riverfront pockets. Shrimptons Creek and the campus grounds of Macquarie University extend these recreational networks, softening the urban setting and creating a daily connection to nature that informs the project’s architectural response.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> have shaped La Vera around these contrasts. The building’s northern elevation adopts an organic, curvilinear form that mirrors the natural topography of the national park. Three sculpted forms soften the tower’s profile and encourage a stronger transition between indoor living areas, balconies and the broader landscape.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=223737]

Cox Director Felipe Miranda says the building’s outlook played a central role in the design process.

“The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park… The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies,” Felipe Miranda of Cox Architecture said.

Toward the city-facing side, the design shifts to a more urban expression. A gridded facade and extensive glazing capture CBD views, creating a dual strategy that blends ecological outlooks with metropolitan orientation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=5827]

La Vera delivers 169 residences across one- to four-bedroom layouts, reflecting the needs of young families, downsizers, first-home buyers and investors seeking long-term certainty within a high-amenity location. From the project, residents can walk to Macquarie University, Macquarie Hospital and nearby corporate offices, reach national park trails within minutes, and enjoy retail and dining without relying on a car.

The project is delivered by Urban Property Group, a 4.5-star iCIRT-rated developer-builder with more than three decades of experience. The company has become a leader in adopting 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI), first introduced on its Parq Bexley development and now embedded into its pipeline.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=223727]

La Vera is the first development in Macquarie Park approved to offer this 10-year LDI policy, adding another layer of protection for purchasers and reinforcing the transparency of the construction process.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias says this assurance has become increasingly important for buyers navigating the off-the-plan market.

“Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been… Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share,” Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said.

Urban Property Group's in-house construction team is forecasting a mid-2026 completion, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/home789">HOME789</a> appointed as the project marketer.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134951]

La Vera delivers a nature-connected address within Macquarie Park’s core

Housing Downturn

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Although the official statistics suggest something slightly different, by my reckoning Sydney's housing market has now entered its third year of downturn.
<div>From a purely psychological point of view, this makes for a testing time for owners, and some may now choose to sell.  </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>I'm interested in opportunities, but one of the challenges facing bargain-hunters - at least in the areas that are typically of most interest - is that Sydney's regional unemployment rates are as close to zero as you'll ever see. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click <a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zQj8VeqmxnU/XHhf4Egzx6I/AAAAAAAAuw4/_7pp0VW2TYcFLt_g8Pi1qPhoEz_JtIb6gCLcBGAs/s640/UE.jpg" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zQj8VeqmxnU/XHhf4Egzx6I/AAAAAAAAuw4/_7pp0VW2TYcFLt_g8Pi1qPhoEz_JtIb6gCLcBGAs/s640/UE.jpg" width="640" height="368" data-original-height="795" data-original-width="1381"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The cash rate setting is also at the lowest ever level, so there's little in the way of mortgage stress to report in inner Sydney, although tighter access to credit and the interest-only mortgage reset could smoke out some portfolio investors. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And despite record levels of construction in recent years, Sydney doesn't really have a structural oversupply.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>What it does have, though, is a few concentrated gluts of apartment completions and projects hitting the market at the same time, which might give rise to some distressed sales or failed apartment projects. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Pockets of pain</div>
<div>
 My experience in Britain has taught me that sharp price falls are sometimes seen when the economy really turns bad, leading to rising unemployment and forced sellers - hardly a widespread problem facing Sydney at this point in time - and sometimes in the most supply-responsive areas.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I spent a long time last week looking for bargains in the Sydney market, and in the east I couldn't find anything - I mean, not a single thing - that you might term a bargain, or anything even approximating to a bargain. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I don't really know enough about Homebush, Parramatta, Blacktown, or Western Sydney to comment in any meaningful way.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The best examples I could find of significant price declines, at least within 20 kilometres of the City, were mostly in areas zoned for higher-density housing or construction hotspots.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Epping was a standout example, where scores of apartments were sold off the plan around 2014, and it's not too hard in that area to find examples of units for sale at well below the 'as new' price (although, interestingly, some have been advertised 'almost as new').</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Resale prices in some developments look likely to be up to 15 to 20 per cent lower than the off-the-plan price after an assumption for discounting is factored in.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>A high proportion of such apartments was bought by non-residents, and jt's probably fair to say that total return might not have been absolutely front of mind for some off the plan buyers. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Locations around Epping and parts of the Hills District have experienced a huge surge in apartment completions in recent years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Finding a tenant would be hard work right now for landlords, which might encourage more sellers in 2019.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. </div>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Where are the Sydney property bargains? Pete Wargent

soliver-smf6LQXgW9

Capital city home prices up, what happened to the downturn? Shane Oliver

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
The July CoreLogic index results show the Melbourne property market is the worst capital city performer since the onset of COVID-19. June marked the third consecutive month of value falls across the city. This sees values down -2.3% from the previous quarter, when the market hit a record high. 
The results may be surprising, particularly when considering that the Sydney growth rate, which often moves quite closely with Melbourne property, was less than half this rate in the same period (at -0.8%). Several factors may explain why Melbourne in particular has experienced a more rapid decline.
Melbourne has sometimes ‘led’ cycles, and has often been more volatile
Data suggests that the Melbourne market has experienced a turn in its market before others. This was evident in the most recent upswing, where Sydney and Melbourne saw peak growth rates around November 2019, while other capital cities continued to see a more moderate but accelerating growth rate.
A longer-term view suggests it is not uncommon for Melbourne to outpace capital growth in Sydney, or to see deeper rates of decline.
The divergence is particularly evident through the 2010-2012 downturn, following a substantial over-performance from Melbourne during the post-GFC stimulus fuelled growth phase.
The most recent upswing before COVID-19 also saw Melbourne growth rates peak higher than in Sydney. The Melbourne quarterly growth rate peaked at 6.4%, compared with 6.2% across Sydney.
Cyclically then, it is not unreasonable to see Melbourne values slip at a greater rate than other capital cities.
Research also suggests that property markets where incomes are higher, households are more indebted and investor activity is higher can also be more sensitive to changes in economic conditions. This has been consistently evident in the upper quartile of values across the Melbourne market, which had the strongest value increases amid the last upswing, and are currently showing the largest falls.
High levels of investment are also evident in the Melbourne market, which may be contributing to volatility, though this is present in Sydney too.
ABS finance data shows investor lending has comprised an average 32.3% of total mortgage lending across Victoria for the past 5 years.
This is higher than most other states and territories.
Given that Melbourne has also experienced higher growth rates before the onset of COVID, and may be approaching a trough more quickly, Melbourne may not be the ‘worst performer’ over the entire cycle, but just based on a snapshot view of the past couple of months.
However, there are some key structural factors creating added downward pressure on Melbourne property prices.
ELIZA OWEN is the Head of Research Australia at CoreLogic
</body></html>

pchatterjee-seVgoiQgz5

Why is Melbourne property leading the downswing? CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

<html><body>
The RBA deputy governor Guy Debelle has noted that the housing market downturn seems to have come to an end.
Debelle, who was the keynote speaker at the 14th Annual Risk Australia Conference in Sydney on Thursday, said there is evidence the decline has reached his conclusion.
"If this is the case, the drag from declining wealth and turnover will dissipate," Debelle said.
"Housing market conditions may even start to support consumption growth again in the period ahead."
Debelle suggested the dynamics of the housing markets have affected the consumption outlook.
"Overlaid on the slow growth in household income has been the effect of the decline in housing prices," Debelle said
"Some part of that effect comes through a wealth effect: as housing prices fall, homeowners' wealth declines, which reduces their spending.
"Some part of the effect comes through the lower housing turnover that has accompanied the decline in housing prices.
"Housing turnover is around its lowest level in more than 20 years. When people move house, they spend more on things like household furniture."
Debelle suggests households are benefitting, in aggregate, from the effect of lower interest rates.
"While the income of households with deposits is lower, the household sector as a whole has around twice as much debt as deposits. Hence the cash flow boost from lower mortgage payments outweighs that of lower deposit rates.
"Again, there is uncertainty about how much of that cash flow boost will be spent or saved, including in the form of paying down mortgages faster.
"If households use the additional cash flow to pay down their mortgages, it does bring closer the date that they will be more comfortable with their balance sheets and return to more regular spending habits.
Debelle says the RBA are expecting the GDP growth outcomes to strengthen after a run of disappointing numbers.
"This outlook is supported by a number of developments including: lower interest rates, the recent tax cuts, a depreciation of the Australian dollar, a brighter outlook for investment in the resources sector, some stabilisation of the housing market and ongoing high levels of investment in infrastructure," Debelle added.
</body></html>

wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

Evidence decline in house prices has reached an end: RBA's deputy governor Guy Debelle

<html><body>
Over the month of June, house prices in both Sydney and Melbourne didn't record losses for the first time in nearly two years, according to CoreLogic.
The end of the housing downturn in the two major capital city markets has been forecasted since the Coalition won parliamentary honours over Labor in May.
The declines slowed down drastically since.
The month of May saw Sydney houses dropping just 0.4 percent and Melbourne 0.6 percent.
The latest figures from CoreLogic, who analyse the housing markets every month, saw Sydney house prices unmoved in June, with Melbourne scoring a 0.1% increase.
Nationally dwelling values are down just 0.2%, with house values down 0.1% and unit values up 0.2%.
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/1/Capital%20City%20markets%20June%20CoreLogic.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/Capital%20City%20markets%20June%20CoreLogic.jpg" alt="">
Hobart's cooling off period only lasted a few months, with house values increasing by 0.1% in June.
The biggest house value declines were felt in Darwin (-1.7%) and Canberra (-0.9%).
Perth saw its house values drop 0.7%, followed by Brisbane 0.6% decline and Adelaide at 0.5%
CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless believes that the June housing market results provide further evidence that the downturn is running out of steam.
<div class="page" title="Page 3">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
“The improvement in housing market conditions over the first five months of the year has largely been organic, however since mid-May there has been a raft of announcements that should provide a further positive flow through to housing demand", Lawless said. 
“Stability within the federal government, along with the removal of uncertainty surrounding changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts, has brought about increased certainty and boosted confidence in the housing market.
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/1/CoreLogic%20June%2030%20Capital%20City.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/CoreLogic%20June%2030%20Capital%20City.jpg" alt="">
“Aided by the housing downturn, we have also seen an improvement around housing affordability, although dwelling values remain high relative to household incomes in Sydney and Melbourne.
"Add to this lower mortgage rates and the high likelihood that interest rate serviceability tests are set to improve.”
The last time Sydney and Melbourne houses didn't record losses in the same month was August 2017 when Sydney's housing downturn began, some six months before Melbourne started declining.
 
 
 
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Sydney and Melbourne housing downturn weakening to a halt

<html><body>
Not too many surprises in the Treasurer's 2019 Federal Budget, then.
Tax cuts for households were effectively doubled from around $150 billion to about $300 billion, in rounded numbers. 
Quite a substantial saving of tax for households was mooted to be released in stages, and more Aussies eventually set to be paying tax at 30%.
There were some more immediate handouts, something of a boost to infrastructure spending, and a broadening of the scope for business asset write-offs.
Nothing too unexpected nor dramatic, but an expansionary Budget nonetheless. 
Rentals tightening ex-Sydney
Assuming the Opposition wins the election, as is widely expected, there may be changes to tax policy for housing. 
But although this hasn't showed up in official data yet, the squeeze on property investors is now quietly beginning to hurt some of the people Labor's policy is designed to help, most notably renters.
I'd suspected this might happen, but had no worthwhile evidence for it until this week.
I've been in Melbourne for a few days, and agents are now reporting queues and multiple applications on some rental properties, and offers being made above asking rents prior to settlement for entrant landlords.
This is mainly taking place in the landlocked inner- and middle ring suburbs of Melbourne.
And granted it's far more so the case for trendy terraces and family homes than it is for apartments. 
But it's the first hard evidence that a reduced supply of rental stock will eventually lead to an accommodation shortage and a spike in rents, with or without Labor's proposed changes. 
The construction pipeline is also now shrinking after a record cycle for housing starts. 
Fixed rates falling
Affordability in cities such as Sydney has improved over more than two years since the first quarter of 2017, with transactions taking place at a level about 15% lower than at the heady peak, on average, while incomes are also up modestly by about 5% over the past couple of years. 
Unemployment rates in the two most populous cities and states have fallen to multi-decade lows at about 4 to 5%. 
Funding costs have eased suddenly and sharply, globally the upwards pressure on interest rates has quickly reversed, and fixed mortgage rates in Australia are now falling. 
Yesterday the Reserve Bank took a "surprising and significant step" towards a formal or explicit easing bias after a couple of years in a more balanced position, through amending the closing sentence of its monetary policy decision to a more dovish stance. 
That paves the way for an interest rate cut some time between May and August, with another to follow later (markets are pricing about a three in 10 chance of a cut as soon as next month). 
We aren't quite there yet, but the end of the downturn in housing market sentiment appears to be closer.
An official cash rate heading towards 1% will do that, of course, even when banks don't pass on the full 50 basis points. 
Perhaps more important than all of the above is that there are some tentative signs of lending to investors picking up.
And if leading indicators are our thing, all industry participants I've spoken over the past week or two have reported a noticeable lift in activity of late...especially on the 'buy side'. 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. 
</body></html>

End of housing downturn draws closer: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
With the housing market weakening over the past few years, most capital cities have experienced dwelling value falls with a more significant correction experienced in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and Darwin.
Although the past few decades have been characterised by increasing property values, that doesn’t mean there haven’t been periods when property values have reversed; in fact the housing market is highly cyclical with upswings generally followed by a period of falling values.
At a national level, since 1980 there have been eight separate housing market downturns (as highlighted in the first chart).
The current downturn which commenced after October 2017, has seen values fall by -6.8%. Although that may not seem like a substantial downturn, since the early 80s there have only been two downturns which were larger, 2008-09 and 1982-83.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%201.JPG" alt="">
 
National housing market downturns have also been generally fairly short-lived with the current downturn of 16 months already the second longest with the 2010-12 decline running two months longer than the current downturn.
The decline in values throughout the current downturn has been larger across the combined capital cities, with values now -8.6% lower.
By next month, assuming the falls continue, this will be the largest downturn in the combined capital city index any time since 1980.
The current downturn is also closing in on being the longest.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%202.JPG" alt="">
 
With values having peaked in September 2017, they have now been falling for 17 months with the previous longest period of decline coinciding with the last recession, running for 20 months between 1989 and 1991.
Since peaking in July 2017, Sydney dwelling values have fallen by -13.2% to February 2019.
Not only is this now the deepest period of decline it is also one of the longest. With little sign that the falls will abate over the coming months, this current downturn may end up being the deepest and longest in modern times.
This downturn is also very different to other downturns which have generally been driven by an economic contraction or higher interest rates.
This downturn is more closely linked to a significant tightening of credit conditions at a time in which the economy continues to grow and interest rates are unchanged (despite some moderate increases for owner occupiers and larger rises for investors).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%203.JPG" alt="">
 
The housing market in Melbourne peaked in November 2017 and up until the end of February 2019 dwelling values across the city have fallen by -9.6%.
Interestingly, comparing the downturn in Melbourne to Sydney, 15 months into Melbourne’s downturn values have fallen -9.6% compared to a decline of -8.2% 15 months into Sydney’s downturn.
The downturn in Melbourne’s housing market is closing in on its largest downturn of -10% between 1989 and 1992 while the downturn (so far) has been much shorter than the 36 month period in 1989-92.
 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%204.JPG" alt="">
While Sydney and Melbourne have recorded substantial increases in dwelling values over recent years and are now seeing large falls, Brisbane never saw anywhere near the magnitude of value growth during the upswing.
Despite more moderate growth in recent years, values in Brisbane are now falling on an annual basis, albeit quite moderately.
Brisbane dwelling values peaked in April 2018 and they have now declined by -1.0% to February 2019. To date the fall is moderate however, with housing market weakness entrenched values are expected to move slightly lower or, at best hold firm, over the coming months.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%205.JPG" alt="">
Much like Brisbane, value growth in Adelaide has been moderate over recent years however, that has not stopped values from starting to decline over recent months.
Values peaked in December of 2018 and have fallen over each of the past two months to be -0.3% lower at the end of February 2019.
While there have been previous periods of value falls in Adelaide, they have tended to be more moderate than those recorded across the other capital cities.
To-date the decline has been short and moderate and it will be interesting to see over the coming months whether values continue to fall.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%206.JPG" alt="">
The Perth housing market has been in an extended downturn over recent years with values having now fallen by -17.8% since their June 2014 peak.
The current downturn has run substantially longer than previous downturns and it is also a much deeper value fall than recorded across previous downturns.
In late 2017/early 2018 it was looking as if the falls were coming to an end however, the market has weakened further in line with weaker labour market and economic conditions as well as tighter credit conditions.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%207.JPG" alt="">
Hobart is the only capital city in which dwelling values are continuing to rise.
Although they are still rising, the annual rate of growth in February 2019 was recorded at 7.2% which was its slowest rate of growth since October 2016.
Housing affordability has been a big driver of growth over recent years however, housing affordability has been eroded and there is a likelihood that the rate of growth will continue to ease over coming months.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%208.JPG" alt="">
Darwin housing data commences from 1999 and over that time there have only been two downturns. The current downturn which commenced from May 2014 has now seen values in Darwin fall by -27.0%.
The downturn is significantly longer and deeper than the previous downturn and the deepest downturn recorded for any capital city over recent decades.
With weak labour market and economic conditions persisting, there is a high likelihood of further declines this year.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%209.JPG" alt="">
Canberra dwelling values fell by -0.2% in February 2019. Although there is no evidence of a negative trend, the rate of annual growth has been consistently slowing and it is clear that some heat has exited the Canberra housing market.
Although values may edge lower, the outlook for Canberra’s housing market is likely to be relatively steady conditions.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%2010.JPG" alt="">
With values now falling across most capital cities the question of course becomes when do the falls stop.
No one really knows the answer to that question, our models show, at least for the short-term, that values are likely to continue trending lower, with the rate of decline easing later this year and into 2020.
The other main question is once markets reach a trough, how quickly will the market recover?
Historically, market recoveries from their trough have generally been fairly rapid however, the recoveries have generally been driven by lower interest rates or a mix of stimulus such as the first home buyers grant boost.
Although there is an expectation that interest rates may move lower, we probably won’t see the entire rates cuts passed through to mortgage rates and the much tighter credit conditions are likely to limit any rebound in the housing market, particularly given borrowers are being assessed on their ability to repay a mortgage at a much higher rate (above 7%).
CAMERON KUSHER is a Senior Analyst for CoreLogic
</body></html>

ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

House value downturn still spreading: Cameron Kusher

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
The housing cycle and house prices always incite high interest in Australia. Until recently it was all about surging prices and poor affordability – particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. Over the last year it’s turned into how far prices will fall and what’s the impact on the economy.
Global issues and the election aside, the housing downturn is likely to be the main issue for Australia in 2019.
 How far have home prices fallen?
According to CoreLogic data, up until December capital city dwelling prices are down 7% from their September 2017 high. This masks a wide range though with Sydney down 11% from its July 2017 high, Melbourne down 7% from its November 2017 high, Perth down 16% and Darwin down 25% from their mid 2014 mining investment boom highs but other cities continuing to trend up to varying degrees. Recently the declines have been led by Sydney and Melbourne. House prices are on average down more than unit prices and prices in regional centres have generally held up better than capital cities.
What is driving the falls?
The fall in property prices comes after a boom – most recently over the five years to 2017 that in particular saw Sydney prices rise 72% and Melbourne prices gain 56%. This, on top of gains since the mid-1990s, saw a sharp deterioration in affordability, prices become overvalued relative to income, rents and their long-term trend and reach expensive levels by global standards. The surge in home prices went hand in hand with a surge in debt that has seen the ratio of household debt to income go from the low end of OECD countries to the top end. High prices and high debt left Australian housing very vulnerable.
What has changed in the last two years is that:
<ul>
<li>It’s become harder to get a loan as regulators forced banks to tighten lending standards and the Royal Commission seems to have made banks even more cautious. </li>
<li>A big pool of interest only borrowers are switching to principal and interest driving higher debt servicing costs. </li>
<li>Banks have cut lending to SMSF funds to invest in property. </li>
<li>The supply of units has surged to record levels. </li>
<li>Foreign demand has fallen sharply. </li>
<li>As rising prices fed on themselves by driving expectations for more price gains (FOMO - fear of missing out), falling prices are driving reduced price expectations and leading to reduced demand and FONGO (fear of not getting out). </li>
<li>Investors are starting to factor in less favourable negative gearing and capital gains tax arrangements if there is a change of government. </li>
<li>Problems regarding the Lacrosse and Opal buildings have dented confidence around building standards. </li>
<li>It's unlikely interest rate cuts will quickly end this property cycle downturn as occurred in the 2008 and 2010-12 downswings. Rates are already low &amp; debt is much higher.</li>
</ul>
What will be the impact of tax changes?
The Australian Labor Party’s policy since the last election has been to limit negative gearing to new property and double capital gains tax on investments held for more than 12 months. This is aimed at improving housing affordability which means lower prices. Put simply, such changes would make it less attractive for investors to invest in residential property which would be negative for prices.
A study by Riskwise Property Research and Wargent Advisory found that this would lower property prices ranging from 2 to 3% in Tasmania to around 9% in Sydney. While the tax changes are proposed to be grandfathered, it’s likely it’s already reducing investor demand as investors worry that when it comes time to sell their property if the tax changes occur then there will be less demand.
How far will home prices fall?
For Sydney and Melbourne our base case has been that prices would have a top to bottom fall of around 20% out to 2020. However, the further plunge in auction clearance rates and acceleration in price falls late last year suggest a deeper fall possibly of around 25% (although it’s impossible to be precise). This suggests around another 15% fall in Sydney and more in Melbourne. A 25% top to bottom drop would take prices back to where they were in late 2014/early 2015.
While prices in other cities are being affected by credit tightening they were less speculative and so are less vulnerable. Perth and Darwin have already seen prices fall back to decade ago levels. Other capital cities and regional centres generally didn’t have a boom and so are unlikely to have a bust. So for the rest of Australia flat prices to modest gains are likely. Taken together this suggests a top to bottom fall in national average prices of 10 to 15%, with another 5 to 10% this year.
Will home prices crash?
This is a bit of an unhelpful question like the “are we in a property bubble” questions of a few years ago as it’s hard to define and implies a degree of inevitability in terms of the implications. A 25% plunge in Sydney and Melbourne may seem like a crash but given the extent of the prior gains it’s arguably not. But a 25% national average fall would probably be interpreted as a crash.
Our assessment is that this is unlikely unless we see much higher interest rates or unemployment (neither of which are expected) driving a sharp rise in defaults and forced property sales or a collapse in immigration (which would collapse demand). Strong population growth is still driving strong underlying demand for housing. While mortgage stress is a risk, it tends to be overstated, and is unlikely to be a generalised issue unless interest rates or unemployment shoot higher. And, while Sydney and Melbourne are at risk, other cities have not seen the same boom &amp; so are unlikely to crash.
Although many like to make comparisons to the US at the time of the GFC, there are two big differences. Australia has not seen the surge in sub-prime loans where money was lent to home owners who often had “no income, no job, no asset” (NINJA loans). Secondly, our mortgages are full recourse meaning we won’t see “jingle mail”, where home owners can send back the keys just because the house value falls below their debt, which then saw the bank put the property back on the market pushing home prices even lower.
However, the risk of a crash cannot be ignored given the danger that banks may become too tight and that investors decide to exit in the face of falling returns.
Have home prices fallen before?
A common property myth is that prices only ever go up and never fall. But a simple look at history tells us this is not so. Real house prices (ie prices after the impact of inflation) in Sydney fell 36% in 1934-35, 32% in 1937-41, 41% in 1942-43, 12% in 1947-48, 14% in 1951-53, 12% in 1961-62 and 22% in 1974-77.
In nominal terms based on CoreLogic data Sydney dwelling prices fell 25% in 1980-83, 10% in 1989-91, 8% in 2004-06 and 7% in 2008-09. So a 25% fall this time around would be similar to that seen in the early 1980s.
What will be the impact on the economy? The housing downturn will affect the broader economy via slowing dwelling construction, negative wealth effects on consumer spending (ie, our wealth goes down, we feel poorer, we spend less than otherwise) and if rising defaults drive a further slowing in bank lending. The first two will detract 1 to 1.5 percentage points from economic growth. Growth in infrastructure spending and business investment should help keep the economy growing but its likely to be constrained to around 2.7% which in turn will keep wages and inflation low.
What is the impact on banks?
The main risk for banks is that the property downturn drives a rise in defaults. However, full recourse loans mean that just because home prices fall resulting in negative equity, defaults won’t necessarily rise. In the absence of much higher interest rates or unemployment making it harder for people to service their loans, a big rise in defaults is unlikely.
However, it’s still a risk and the housing downturn will likely mean slower bank lending which will constrain bank profits.
What will it mean for interest rates?
Constrained growth due to the housing downturn resulting in lower for longer inflation will likely drive the RBA to cut interest rates this year, with two cuts taking the cash rate to 1% by year end. Our base case is that this will occur in August and November (giving the RBA chance to assess the election and tax cuts), but soft data could see it come earlier.
Tax cuts from July are unlikely to be big enough (the Government is allowing for just $3bn pa in tax cuts which is just 0.1% of GDP) to head off the need for rate cuts.
Is the house price downturn good or bad?
This depends on who you are. For baby boomers who got in years ago, have paid off their debt and saw the value of their home rise to levels they never believed sustainable, a fall back to 2014/15 levels may be no big deal.
For those who got in more recently and have a big mortgage price falls are more of a downer and its this group for whom negative wealth effects will be greatest.
For millennials trying to get in its great news – assuming the housing downturn is not so great that it knocks the economy for six and they lose their jobs. For investors…
What does it mean for investors?
Over the very long-term, residential property adjusted for costs has similar returns to Australian shares. So, there is a role for it in investors’ portfolios. However, right now the slump in property prices in some cities is bad news for investors given that rental yields are often just 1-2% after costs.
Falling rents in Sydney are a double whammy. Add to this uncertainty about tax and it’s not a great time for a property investor. That said, other cities and regional centres offer more attractive rental yields than Sydney and Melbourne and falling prices in Sydney and Melbourne will throw up opportunities at some point.
Dr Shane Oliver is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist for AMP Capital.
</body></html>

How bad will the housing downturn get? Shane Oliver answers the burning questions

<html><body>
Sydney’s current house price downturn is the sharpest in more than two decades, although the duration is yet to surpass the 2004-06 slump, according to Domain's latest House Price Report.
The report found that for the second time since Domain records began in 1993, house prices have fallen for four consecutive quarters, the only other period this occurred was in 2008. 
House prices fell 3.2% over the quarter and 9.9% over the year to $1,062,619. 
Unit prices fell 3.3% over the quarter and 5.8% over the year to $702,012.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/1/Strip%20ad%20keep%20up%20in%202019.jpg" alt=""></a>
Domain Senior Research Analyst, Dr Nicola Powell said: "Despite the consistent quarterly moderations, the depth of the falls have not gained significant momentum. The pullback in price was anticipated given the stellar run of growth that lasted almost six years. Homeowners reaped an unprecedented gain of 89% over this period.
“Historical performance proves unit prices have a tendency to hold firmer than houses, with slumps being of shorter duration and intensity. Similar to houses, unit prices have also fallen for four consecutive quarters. The latest annual decline the steepest in more than 20 years, taking unit prices back to mid-2016 levels.
“Since changes to macroprudential policies began in late 2014, obtaining a home loan has become increasingly challenging. Although this has resulted in fewer buyers, it has removed the loans written on thin grounds. Having met more stringent lending standards, those who are active in the market are ready to transact.
"Astute investors, who are able to secure finance, may start to look to Sydney as they hunt for the right opportunity to purchase under softer market conditions. Educated investors will continue to take a careful approach, even with the 30% growth cap on interest-only loans lifted.
“Affordability is improving in the harbour city. First home buyers have fewer investors to compete against, greater choice and a wider window to make their purchase. This also provides opportunity for the upsize buyer. It may mean selling at a lower price point compared to the boom, but if buying and selling under the same market conditions, it is likely to be offset by a more affordable upsize purchase.”
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/23/Domain%20Q4%20Syd.JPG" alt="">
</body></html>

Housing Downturn

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

The latest real estate & off the plan properties & news, delivered to your inbox.

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

The latest real estate & off the plan properties & news, delivered to your inbox.

Housing Downturn

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

The latest real estate & off the plan properties & news, delivered to your inbox.

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

The latest real estate & off the plan properties & news, delivered to your inbox.