Adding to Chatswood’s growing skyline, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-anderson-chatswood-54-56-anderson-street-chatswood-nsw-2067">The Anderson</a> is grounded in a simple principle: apartment living in a major centre does not have to come at the expense of space and outlook.

Set on Anderson Street in the heart of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chatswood-nsw-2067">Chatswood</a>, the new residential tower, a collaboration between developers <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/changfa-group">Changfa Group</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/huirong-group">Huirong Group</a> with architecture and interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ajc-architects">AJC Architects</a>, will introduce 122 apartments that prioritise generous proportions, considered orientation, and a strong connection to the surrounding heritage precinct.

The design originated from a Design Excellence Competition, where AJC proposed a building that combines suburban-style apartment scale with the density expected in a transport-rich centre. The development will include more than 1,800 square metres of retail and commercial space at street level, landscaped communal roof terraces, and a ground-floor pocket park framed by canopy trees. Together these elements aim to create a building that integrates with Chatswood’s evolving streetscape while maintaining a strong residential focus.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151353 project_image_fid=353250]

A key driver behind the architecture was the desire to deliver family-sized apartments rarely seen in the Chatswood market. The Anderson includes a mix of one to four-bedroom apartments, with around 35 per cent of the residences configured as three or four-bedroom homes. At the top of the building, two double-storey penthouses span approximately 200 square metres each, reinforcing the project’s emphasis on scale and long-term liveability for both downsizers and intergenerational households.

Orientation and outlook were central to the planning of the building. The apartments are positioned to maximise views to the north and east across Chatswood’s heritage precinct, with upper levels capturing glimpses of the Pacific Ocean. South-facing apartments gain distant views toward the Sydney CBD and Harbour Bridge, while the building’s configuration intentionally reduces western exposure at lower levels to minimise overlooking toward the nearby railway corridor.

The external design references the character of the surrounding conservation area without replicating it directly. A brick podium anchors the building to the street and introduces a series of architectural portals that draw inspiration from the nearby Chatswood Presbyterian Church. Above this base, the tower shifts to a lighter, more open expression defined by horizontal lines and carefully detailed balconies that balance privacy with outward views.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151353 project_image_fid=353254]

Toward the top of the tower, AJC introduces a distinctive lantern-like element formed by sliding screens. These screens provide both solar shading and privacy while also creating a visual marker for the building within the Chatswood skyline. The feature reinforces the architectural intent of the project, a structure that is visually refined while still responding to the practical requirements of apartment living.

Inside the residences, interior architecture by Hayball focuses on clear spatial flow and practical everyday use. Open-plan living areas connect directly to large balconies, extending the internal living spaces outward and allowing natural light to move deeper into the apartments. Kitchens are designed as central working spaces with premium appliances and carefully selected materials, positioned to serve both daily living and entertaining.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151353 project_image_fid=353256]

Bathrooms follow a similarly restrained design language, using refined fixtures and materials to create calm, functional spaces, while wardrobe areas adopt a gallery-style layout with integrated lighting and generous storage. These elements reflect a broader design approach that prioritises clarity, functionality, and durability over decorative gestures.

Positioned just a short walk from Chatswood Interchange, residents will have direct access to rail, metro, retail, and dining. The Metro extension allows travel from Chatswood to Martin Place in approximately 11 minutes, placing the CBD within easy reach for residents while maintaining the convenience of a walkable North Shore neighbourhood.

One-bedroom apartments at The Anderson start from $1,022,000.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151353]

Joel Robinson

How AJC designed The Anderson to bring oversized apartment living to Chatswood

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/bridgewell-development">Bridgewell Capital</a> has lodged plans for a major mixed-use apartment development in the heart of Maroubra, seeking a significant uplift in height and density controls to deliver 120 apartments and a 120-place childcare centre near Maroubra Junction.

The State Significant Development application, filed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, covers a 3,270 sqm amalgamated site at 251-257 Maroubra Road and 133-135 Garden Street. The proposal includes a concurrent rezoning that would increase the maximum building height from 12 metres to 35.6 metres and lift the floor space ratio to 4.02:1.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bka-architecture">BKA Architecture</a>, the project would replace a mechanic’s workshop and several detached homes with a 10-storey residential building above four basement levels.

The scheme comprises 120 apartments, including 27 affordable housing units to be managed by a community housing provider for 15 years, alongside 203 basement car spaces and 92 bicycle spaces. A childcare centre occupying nearly 900 sqm of floor area would sit at ground level and be capable of accommodating 120 children and 22 staff.

<img alt="First look: Bridgewell plots 120 apartments and childcare centre in Maroubra town centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="038a0639-f9e4-4303-8fcc-d43e73fa480f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Bridgewell%20pers.png?VersionId=eGBElxmNqJW.YF3JFYgHTnPgAstdyXR3" />

According to the Design Report, the project has been conceived as a “gateway proposal” that responds to Maroubra’s evolving urban character and its proximity to the town centre.

“Designed to complement the character of Maroubra’s town centre, this gateway proposal features a building scale that matches its surroundings,” the report stated.

“It integrates residential units above a ground-level childcare centre, fulfilling the strategic objectives of the Randwick City Council Masterplan.”

The apartment mix is weighted toward larger residences aimed at families and downsizers, reflecting changing demographics in the Randwick LGA and increasing demand for medium-density housing close to transport and amenity.

BKA Architecture said the proposal seeks to reinforce Maroubra Road as a civic spine while improving the pedestrian experience around the site through landscaping and upgraded public interfaces.

“The design capitalises on the following site opportunities: reinforcement of Maroubra Road as a civic spine, enhancement of pedestrian pathways and the public interface via new landscaping, and strong market demand for two and three-bedroom apartments to support families and down-sizers,” the Design Report noted.

<img alt="First look: Bridgewell plots 120 apartments and childcare centre in Maroubra town centre" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ee509779-3c7e-4918-b03d-761c785459d0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Bridgewell%20site.png?VersionId=eZC4Ruyn.C7O.Qwfr1SVeP5.ds1c5.66" />

The building has been designed with setbacks and articulation intended to transition between the commercial intensity of Maroubra Junction and the surrounding lower-scale residential neighbourhoods. Communal open space is proposed on level one, while upper-level apartments would secure views towards Port Botany, Maroubra Beach and Sydney’s eastern suburbs.

The development sits around 200 metres east of the Maroubra Junction intersection of Anzac Parade and Maroubra Road, within one of Randwick’s identified strategic centres. The site is close to Pacific Square Shopping Centre, major bus routes, schools, parks and future cycling infrastructure proposed under the Maroubra Junction Masterplan.

The Maroubra proposal aligns with broader NSW Government initiatives encouraging higher-density housing near established centres and transport corridors, particularly where affordable housing is incorporated.

Bridgewell is also working on a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/goldfields-sets-the-stage-as-quartet-milton-launches">new 55-unit project in Killara</a>.

First look: Bridgewell plots 120 apartments and childcare centre in Maroubra town centre

National diversified developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/goldfields-group">Goldfields</a> has launched its latest Brisbane apartment project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/quartet-milton-33-manning-street-milton-qld-4064">Quartet Milton</a>, marking its entry into the sought-after inner-city suburb just two kilometres from the CBD.

The circa $100 million development will rise 18 storeys and deliver 131 apartments, offering a mix of one, two-, and three-bedroom residences.

Ideally located on Manning Street, Quartet residents will be within 300 metres of Milton Station, 500 metres from the Milton Ferry Wharf, and a short walk to Milton Markets, the iconic Park Road, as well as a range of breweries and cafés.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108736 project_image_fid=367993]

Designed by architecture firm <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> and brought to life by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a>, the building features a simple, gridded façade paired with generous glazing to enhance views, maximise aspect, and capture both sunrises and sunsets from within the apartments and their generously sized balconies.

Residents will have access to a 1,000 sqm rooftop, curated to balance wellness and entertaining, in response to increasing demand for wellness-focused shared spaces.

"We've approached Quartet Milton as a complete lifestyle offering, not just apartments, but a place where the design, amenities, and location all work together in a meaningful way," says Goldfields Managing Director Lachlan Thompson.

"Buyers are looking for that sense of confidence, knowing the vision has been carefully thought through not just by us as developers, but by all our consultants appointed to bring this together, and that it will be delivered to the standard they expect."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108736 project_image_fid=368000]

Cera Stribley Co-Founder and Managing Principal Domenic Cerantonio said the rooftop is designed to feel like a place "you'd genuinely use every day."

"A 25-metre pool framed by city and mountain views, wellness areas, and private dining spaces for evenings with friends create a setting designed for year-round comfort and effortless Brisbane living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108736 project_image_fid=367999]

In addition to the 25-metre pool, the rooftop will include a sauna, cold plunge, fully equipped gym, and zen gardens, all complemented by panoramic views of the city and river.

While the building is expected to appeal predominantly to owner-occupiers, Goldfields anticipates interest from investors seeking strong rental returns, driven by the project's design, location, and the city's projected capital growth in the lead-up to the 2032 Brisbane Olympics.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108736 project_image_fid=367991]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/milton-qld-4064">Milton</a>, widely regarded as one of Brisbane's most desirable inner-ring suburbs due to its lifestyle offering and proximity to the CBD, has experienced a shortage of new apartment supply in recent years.

Goldfields is already active in the Brisbane residential market through its Ripley Valley masterplanned community, Hayfield. The 109-hectare neighbourhood is already home to more than 300 families and features a large community park.

Plans for the precinct include a 4 km running track, future schools, and retail and commercial amenities, all within a 35-minute drive of the Brisbane CBD.

Goldfields also plans to deliver a new mixed-use tower at 88 Robertson Street in Fortitude Valley, within the James Street precinct. The project will include 16,000 sqm of boutique commercial space, a level of wellness facilities, and a rooftop restaurant and event space, akin to Goldfields House in South Yarra, its flagship mixed-use development on Chapel Street, which is crowned by the Beverly Rooftop bar, one of Melbourne’s best-known venues.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108736]

Goldfields sets the stage as Quartet Milton launches

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/stockland">Stockland</a> and Homes NSW have taken the next major step in the transformation of Waterloo Estate, lodging a Concept State Significant Development Application and concurrent rezoning proposal for the renewal of Waterloo South.

The proposal, now on public exhibition, outlines plans for around 3,300 new homes across the 12.3-hectare precinct. A minimum 30 per cent of residential gross floor area will be delivered as social housing, approximately 20 per cent as affordable housing, and a maximum 50 per cent as market housing. The redevelopment would more than quadruple the number of homes currently on the site and more than double the existing supply of social and affordable housing.

The renewal of Waterloo South forms the first stage of the broader Waterloo Estate transformation and is set to unfold over the next 10 to 15 years. The estate currently contains 750 social housing dwellings and 120 private homes.

<img alt="First look: Stockland and Homes NSW unveil plans for 3,300-home Waterloo South renewal" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ba2da34b-171b-4ff1-b0c7-4baf0bce97f2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Waterloo%20public.png?VersionId=S5apPKOqjPHJhk_SzCvdVPxsEBYs300o" />

The proposal, prepared by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a> and Beam Planning, spans 10 street blocks bounded by Cope, Raglan, George, Wellington, Gibson, Kellick, Pitt and McEvoy Streets, directly adjoining the Waterloo Metro Station precinct and within walking distance of Redfern and Green Square stations.

Under the masterplan, building heights would range from two to 33 storeys, delivering approximately 282,485 sqm of residential floor space alongside at least 10,000 sqm of non-residential uses and a minimum 5,000 sqm of community space. The planning framework has been specifically structured to support the mixed-tenure outcome, with the residential gross floor area capped at a maximum 50 per cent market housing allocation.&nbsp;

The Urban Design Report describes the vision as creating “a unique and vibrant mixed-tenure housing precinct that supports the needs of the community and delivers much needed housing in response to National and State Government priorities.”&nbsp;

<img alt="First look: Stockland and Homes NSW unveil plans for 3,300-home Waterloo South renewal" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6e1a6d8b-0626-4fa7-94fc-aa91c0af86dc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/waterloo%20per.png?VersionId=duyiJTFOeezTNdM22leI3SoHuqnW6ZaY" />

A major focus of the revised proposal has been increasing the social and affordable housing component. The Minns Government increased the affordable and public housing allocation from 35 per cent to 50 per cent after coming to office in 2023.

Minister for Housing and Homelessness Rose Jackson said the changes were critical to maintaining Waterloo’s social diversity.

“When we came to government, we immediately reviewed the plans for the Waterloo renewal and boosted the number of public and affordable homes from 35 to 50 per cent,” Jackson said.

“This was a crucial step to ensure Waterloo remains a welcoming place for people from all walks of life to call home now and into the future.”&nbsp;

Minister for Planning and Public Spaces Paul Scully said the project would reshape the precinct for generations.

“This concept DA brings thousands of new public, affordable and market homes on the doorstep of the Waterloo Metro station another step closer to reality,” Scully said.

“Importantly, alongside the new homes the plan also proposes new open space where residents and the broader community can gather, relax and play.”&nbsp;

<img alt="First look: Stockland and Homes NSW unveil plans for 3,300-home Waterloo South renewal" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="867520cb-6e07-4204-885e-53793ac88066" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Waterloo%20public%20a.png?VersionId=lgSI85Q23xBLYLC9NcWKuWZY2HfP4zQ3" />

Stockland Managing Director and CEO Tarun Gupta said the project had been shaped around long-term liveability and community infrastructure.

“As delivery partner, Stockland is proud to be working with the NSW Government on the renewal of Waterloo South – a significant project with community at its heart,” Gupta said.&nbsp;

The planning documents place strong emphasis on “Designing with Country,” recognising the site’s location on Gadigal land. The masterplan incorporates new east-west pedestrian links, activated streetscapes, rooftop communal spaces, retail frontages, and landscaped public areas intended to improve permeability and community connection throughout the estate.&nbsp;

The proposal also seeks to establish a more flexible planning framework for future detailed SSDAs, including updated provisions for educational uses, creative industries, rooftop communal areas, and active frontages. A minimum seven per cent of residential floor space will be delivered as affordable housing managed in perpetuity by community housing provider City West Housing.&nbsp;

The Social Impact Assessment prepared by Urbis describes the renewal as one of Australia’s most significant public housing transformations, identifying substantial long-term positive impacts associated with housing supply, accessibility, public domain improvements, and community infrastructure.&nbsp;

Stockland and Homes NSW have already commenced the first stage of resident relocations, with some tenants moved into newly completed homes at Waterloo Metro Quarter and the Boronia development nearby.

First look: Stockland, NSW Gov, unveils plans for 3,300-home Waterloo South renewal

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/smith-by-valli-collingwood-224-228-smith-street-collingwood-vic-3066">Smith Collingwood</a> is a new boutique apartment development bringing a refined, design-led approach to one of Melbourne’s most established inner-city neighbourhoods.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pandolfini-architects">Pandolfini Architects</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/lisa-buxton-interiors">Lisa Buxton</a>, Smith by Valli sits on iconic Smith Street and comprises just 22 residences tailored toward owner-occupiers seeking a more considered style of apartment living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=140747 project_image_fid=367540]

The design of Smith focuses on a north-facing orientation across all residences, a relatively uncommon feature in dense inner-Melbourne settings. Each apartment has been planned to maximise natural light and outlook, alongside a material palette defined by warm tones, custom joinery, and a full suite of Gaggenau appliances.

The development comprises a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom apartments, with pricing currently ranging from just under $1 million to around $4.85 million for the premium penthouse-level residences, reflecting growing demand for luxury owner-occupier product in Melbourne’s inner urban market.

Residents will also have access to a private rooftop garden designed as an elevated retreat above the city, &nbsp;featuring curated landscaping, veggie boxes, intimate seating areas and spaces for relaxed gatherings. Sustainability has also been integrated into the project through a 7-star energy rating and two secure bicycle facilities for every residence.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=140747 project_image_fid=367529]

Smith by Valli sits in the heart of one of Melbourne’s most established retail and hospitality strips, within walking distance of venues such as Falco Bakery, Carnation Canteen and Alimentari, alongside parks and everyday services. With a Walk Score of 99, the location reinforces the project’s positioning toward buyers prioritising walkability and access over car dependency.

With only a limited number of residences, Smith reflects growing demand for smaller, highly curated apartment developments that prioritise design quality, liveability, and connection to neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=140747]

Smith by Valli delivers design-led apartments to Melbourne’s inner north

Housing Downturn

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Although the official statistics suggest something slightly different, by my reckoning Sydney's housing market has now entered its third year of downturn.
<div>From a purely psychological point of view, this makes for a testing time for owners, and some may now choose to sell.  </div>
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<div>I'm interested in opportunities, but one of the challenges facing bargain-hunters - at least in the areas that are typically of most interest - is that Sydney's regional unemployment rates are as close to zero as you'll ever see. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click <a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zQj8VeqmxnU/XHhf4Egzx6I/AAAAAAAAuw4/_7pp0VW2TYcFLt_g8Pi1qPhoEz_JtIb6gCLcBGAs/s640/UE.jpg" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zQj8VeqmxnU/XHhf4Egzx6I/AAAAAAAAuw4/_7pp0VW2TYcFLt_g8Pi1qPhoEz_JtIb6gCLcBGAs/s640/UE.jpg" width="640" height="368" data-original-height="795" data-original-width="1381"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The cash rate setting is also at the lowest ever level, so there's little in the way of mortgage stress to report in inner Sydney, although tighter access to credit and the interest-only mortgage reset could smoke out some portfolio investors. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And despite record levels of construction in recent years, Sydney doesn't really have a structural oversupply.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>What it does have, though, is a few concentrated gluts of apartment completions and projects hitting the market at the same time, which might give rise to some distressed sales or failed apartment projects. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Pockets of pain</div>
<div>
 My experience in Britain has taught me that sharp price falls are sometimes seen when the economy really turns bad, leading to rising unemployment and forced sellers - hardly a widespread problem facing Sydney at this point in time - and sometimes in the most supply-responsive areas.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I spent a long time last week looking for bargains in the Sydney market, and in the east I couldn't find anything - I mean, not a single thing - that you might term a bargain, or anything even approximating to a bargain. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I don't really know enough about Homebush, Parramatta, Blacktown, or Western Sydney to comment in any meaningful way.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The best examples I could find of significant price declines, at least within 20 kilometres of the City, were mostly in areas zoned for higher-density housing or construction hotspots.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Epping was a standout example, where scores of apartments were sold off the plan around 2014, and it's not too hard in that area to find examples of units for sale at well below the 'as new' price (although, interestingly, some have been advertised 'almost as new').</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Resale prices in some developments look likely to be up to 15 to 20 per cent lower than the off-the-plan price after an assumption for discounting is factored in.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>A high proportion of such apartments was bought by non-residents, and jt's probably fair to say that total return might not have been absolutely front of mind for some off the plan buyers. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Locations around Epping and parts of the Hills District have experienced a huge surge in apartment completions in recent years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Finding a tenant would be hard work right now for landlords, which might encourage more sellers in 2019.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. </div>
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Where are the Sydney property bargains? Pete Wargent

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Capital city home prices up, what happened to the downturn? Shane Oliver

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The July CoreLogic index results show the Melbourne property market is the worst capital city performer since the onset of COVID-19. June marked the third consecutive month of value falls across the city. This sees values down -2.3% from the previous quarter, when the market hit a record high. 
The results may be surprising, particularly when considering that the Sydney growth rate, which often moves quite closely with Melbourne property, was less than half this rate in the same period (at -0.8%). Several factors may explain why Melbourne in particular has experienced a more rapid decline.
Melbourne has sometimes ‘led’ cycles, and has often been more volatile
Data suggests that the Melbourne market has experienced a turn in its market before others. This was evident in the most recent upswing, where Sydney and Melbourne saw peak growth rates around November 2019, while other capital cities continued to see a more moderate but accelerating growth rate.
A longer-term view suggests it is not uncommon for Melbourne to outpace capital growth in Sydney, or to see deeper rates of decline.
The divergence is particularly evident through the 2010-2012 downturn, following a substantial over-performance from Melbourne during the post-GFC stimulus fuelled growth phase.
The most recent upswing before COVID-19 also saw Melbourne growth rates peak higher than in Sydney. The Melbourne quarterly growth rate peaked at 6.4%, compared with 6.2% across Sydney.
Cyclically then, it is not unreasonable to see Melbourne values slip at a greater rate than other capital cities.
Research also suggests that property markets where incomes are higher, households are more indebted and investor activity is higher can also be more sensitive to changes in economic conditions. This has been consistently evident in the upper quartile of values across the Melbourne market, which had the strongest value increases amid the last upswing, and are currently showing the largest falls.
High levels of investment are also evident in the Melbourne market, which may be contributing to volatility, though this is present in Sydney too.
ABS finance data shows investor lending has comprised an average 32.3% of total mortgage lending across Victoria for the past 5 years.
This is higher than most other states and territories.
Given that Melbourne has also experienced higher growth rates before the onset of COVID, and may be approaching a trough more quickly, Melbourne may not be the ‘worst performer’ over the entire cycle, but just based on a snapshot view of the past couple of months.
However, there are some key structural factors creating added downward pressure on Melbourne property prices.
ELIZA OWEN is the Head of Research Australia at CoreLogic
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Why is Melbourne property leading the downswing? CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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The RBA deputy governor Guy Debelle has noted that the housing market downturn seems to have come to an end.
Debelle, who was the keynote speaker at the 14th Annual Risk Australia Conference in Sydney on Thursday, said there is evidence the decline has reached his conclusion.
"If this is the case, the drag from declining wealth and turnover will dissipate," Debelle said.
"Housing market conditions may even start to support consumption growth again in the period ahead."
Debelle suggested the dynamics of the housing markets have affected the consumption outlook.
"Overlaid on the slow growth in household income has been the effect of the decline in housing prices," Debelle said
"Some part of that effect comes through a wealth effect: as housing prices fall, homeowners' wealth declines, which reduces their spending.
"Some part of the effect comes through the lower housing turnover that has accompanied the decline in housing prices.
"Housing turnover is around its lowest level in more than 20 years. When people move house, they spend more on things like household furniture."
Debelle suggests households are benefitting, in aggregate, from the effect of lower interest rates.
"While the income of households with deposits is lower, the household sector as a whole has around twice as much debt as deposits. Hence the cash flow boost from lower mortgage payments outweighs that of lower deposit rates.
"Again, there is uncertainty about how much of that cash flow boost will be spent or saved, including in the form of paying down mortgages faster.
"If households use the additional cash flow to pay down their mortgages, it does bring closer the date that they will be more comfortable with their balance sheets and return to more regular spending habits.
Debelle says the RBA are expecting the GDP growth outcomes to strengthen after a run of disappointing numbers.
"This outlook is supported by a number of developments including: lower interest rates, the recent tax cuts, a depreciation of the Australian dollar, a brighter outlook for investment in the resources sector, some stabilisation of the housing market and ongoing high levels of investment in infrastructure," Debelle added.
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Evidence decline in house prices has reached an end: RBA's deputy governor Guy Debelle

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Over the month of June, house prices in both Sydney and Melbourne didn't record losses for the first time in nearly two years, according to CoreLogic.
The end of the housing downturn in the two major capital city markets has been forecasted since the Coalition won parliamentary honours over Labor in May.
The declines slowed down drastically since.
The month of May saw Sydney houses dropping just 0.4 percent and Melbourne 0.6 percent.
The latest figures from CoreLogic, who analyse the housing markets every month, saw Sydney house prices unmoved in June, with Melbourne scoring a 0.1% increase.
Nationally dwelling values are down just 0.2%, with house values down 0.1% and unit values up 0.2%.
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/1/Capital%20City%20markets%20June%20CoreLogic.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/Capital%20City%20markets%20June%20CoreLogic.jpg" alt="">
Hobart's cooling off period only lasted a few months, with house values increasing by 0.1% in June.
The biggest house value declines were felt in Darwin (-1.7%) and Canberra (-0.9%).
Perth saw its house values drop 0.7%, followed by Brisbane 0.6% decline and Adelaide at 0.5%
CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless believes that the June housing market results provide further evidence that the downturn is running out of steam.
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“The improvement in housing market conditions over the first five months of the year has largely been organic, however since mid-May there has been a raft of announcements that should provide a further positive flow through to housing demand", Lawless said. 
“Stability within the federal government, along with the removal of uncertainty surrounding changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts, has brought about increased certainty and boosted confidence in the housing market.
To enlarge, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/1/CoreLogic%20June%2030%20Capital%20City.jpg" target="_blank">click here</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/1/CoreLogic%20June%2030%20Capital%20City.jpg" alt="">
“Aided by the housing downturn, we have also seen an improvement around housing affordability, although dwelling values remain high relative to household incomes in Sydney and Melbourne.
"Add to this lower mortgage rates and the high likelihood that interest rate serviceability tests are set to improve.”
The last time Sydney and Melbourne houses didn't record losses in the same month was August 2017 when Sydney's housing downturn began, some six months before Melbourne started declining.
 
 
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Sydney and Melbourne housing downturn weakening to a halt

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Not too many surprises in the Treasurer's 2019 Federal Budget, then.
Tax cuts for households were effectively doubled from around $150 billion to about $300 billion, in rounded numbers. 
Quite a substantial saving of tax for households was mooted to be released in stages, and more Aussies eventually set to be paying tax at 30%.
There were some more immediate handouts, something of a boost to infrastructure spending, and a broadening of the scope for business asset write-offs.
Nothing too unexpected nor dramatic, but an expansionary Budget nonetheless. 
Rentals tightening ex-Sydney
Assuming the Opposition wins the election, as is widely expected, there may be changes to tax policy for housing. 
But although this hasn't showed up in official data yet, the squeeze on property investors is now quietly beginning to hurt some of the people Labor's policy is designed to help, most notably renters.
I'd suspected this might happen, but had no worthwhile evidence for it until this week.
I've been in Melbourne for a few days, and agents are now reporting queues and multiple applications on some rental properties, and offers being made above asking rents prior to settlement for entrant landlords.
This is mainly taking place in the landlocked inner- and middle ring suburbs of Melbourne.
And granted it's far more so the case for trendy terraces and family homes than it is for apartments. 
But it's the first hard evidence that a reduced supply of rental stock will eventually lead to an accommodation shortage and a spike in rents, with or without Labor's proposed changes. 
The construction pipeline is also now shrinking after a record cycle for housing starts. 
Fixed rates falling
Affordability in cities such as Sydney has improved over more than two years since the first quarter of 2017, with transactions taking place at a level about 15% lower than at the heady peak, on average, while incomes are also up modestly by about 5% over the past couple of years. 
Unemployment rates in the two most populous cities and states have fallen to multi-decade lows at about 4 to 5%. 
Funding costs have eased suddenly and sharply, globally the upwards pressure on interest rates has quickly reversed, and fixed mortgage rates in Australia are now falling. 
Yesterday the Reserve Bank took a "surprising and significant step" towards a formal or explicit easing bias after a couple of years in a more balanced position, through amending the closing sentence of its monetary policy decision to a more dovish stance. 
That paves the way for an interest rate cut some time between May and August, with another to follow later (markets are pricing about a three in 10 chance of a cut as soon as next month). 
We aren't quite there yet, but the end of the downturn in housing market sentiment appears to be closer.
An official cash rate heading towards 1% will do that, of course, even when banks don't pass on the full 50 basis points. 
Perhaps more important than all of the above is that there are some tentative signs of lending to investors picking up.
And if leading indicators are our thing, all industry participants I've spoken over the past week or two have reported a noticeable lift in activity of late...especially on the 'buy side'. 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. 
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End of housing downturn draws closer: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
With the housing market weakening over the past few years, most capital cities have experienced dwelling value falls with a more significant correction experienced in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and Darwin.
Although the past few decades have been characterised by increasing property values, that doesn’t mean there haven’t been periods when property values have reversed; in fact the housing market is highly cyclical with upswings generally followed by a period of falling values.
At a national level, since 1980 there have been eight separate housing market downturns (as highlighted in the first chart).
The current downturn which commenced after October 2017, has seen values fall by -6.8%. Although that may not seem like a substantial downturn, since the early 80s there have only been two downturns which were larger, 2008-09 and 1982-83.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%201.JPG" alt="">
 
National housing market downturns have also been generally fairly short-lived with the current downturn of 16 months already the second longest with the 2010-12 decline running two months longer than the current downturn.
The decline in values throughout the current downturn has been larger across the combined capital cities, with values now -8.6% lower.
By next month, assuming the falls continue, this will be the largest downturn in the combined capital city index any time since 1980.
The current downturn is also closing in on being the longest.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%202.JPG" alt="">
 
With values having peaked in September 2017, they have now been falling for 17 months with the previous longest period of decline coinciding with the last recession, running for 20 months between 1989 and 1991.
Since peaking in July 2017, Sydney dwelling values have fallen by -13.2% to February 2019.
Not only is this now the deepest period of decline it is also one of the longest. With little sign that the falls will abate over the coming months, this current downturn may end up being the deepest and longest in modern times.
This downturn is also very different to other downturns which have generally been driven by an economic contraction or higher interest rates.
This downturn is more closely linked to a significant tightening of credit conditions at a time in which the economy continues to grow and interest rates are unchanged (despite some moderate increases for owner occupiers and larger rises for investors).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%203.JPG" alt="">
 
The housing market in Melbourne peaked in November 2017 and up until the end of February 2019 dwelling values across the city have fallen by -9.6%.
Interestingly, comparing the downturn in Melbourne to Sydney, 15 months into Melbourne’s downturn values have fallen -9.6% compared to a decline of -8.2% 15 months into Sydney’s downturn.
The downturn in Melbourne’s housing market is closing in on its largest downturn of -10% between 1989 and 1992 while the downturn (so far) has been much shorter than the 36 month period in 1989-92.
 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%204.JPG" alt="">
While Sydney and Melbourne have recorded substantial increases in dwelling values over recent years and are now seeing large falls, Brisbane never saw anywhere near the magnitude of value growth during the upswing.
Despite more moderate growth in recent years, values in Brisbane are now falling on an annual basis, albeit quite moderately.
Brisbane dwelling values peaked in April 2018 and they have now declined by -1.0% to February 2019. To date the fall is moderate however, with housing market weakness entrenched values are expected to move slightly lower or, at best hold firm, over the coming months.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%205.JPG" alt="">
Much like Brisbane, value growth in Adelaide has been moderate over recent years however, that has not stopped values from starting to decline over recent months.
Values peaked in December of 2018 and have fallen over each of the past two months to be -0.3% lower at the end of February 2019.
While there have been previous periods of value falls in Adelaide, they have tended to be more moderate than those recorded across the other capital cities.
To-date the decline has been short and moderate and it will be interesting to see over the coming months whether values continue to fall.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%206.JPG" alt="">
The Perth housing market has been in an extended downturn over recent years with values having now fallen by -17.8% since their June 2014 peak.
The current downturn has run substantially longer than previous downturns and it is also a much deeper value fall than recorded across previous downturns.
In late 2017/early 2018 it was looking as if the falls were coming to an end however, the market has weakened further in line with weaker labour market and economic conditions as well as tighter credit conditions.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%207.JPG" alt="">
Hobart is the only capital city in which dwelling values are continuing to rise.
Although they are still rising, the annual rate of growth in February 2019 was recorded at 7.2% which was its slowest rate of growth since October 2016.
Housing affordability has been a big driver of growth over recent years however, housing affordability has been eroded and there is a likelihood that the rate of growth will continue to ease over coming months.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%208.JPG" alt="">
Darwin housing data commences from 1999 and over that time there have only been two downturns. The current downturn which commenced from May 2014 has now seen values in Darwin fall by -27.0%.
The downturn is significantly longer and deeper than the previous downturn and the deepest downturn recorded for any capital city over recent decades.
With weak labour market and economic conditions persisting, there is a high likelihood of further declines this year.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%209.JPG" alt="">
Canberra dwelling values fell by -0.2% in February 2019. Although there is no evidence of a negative trend, the rate of annual growth has been consistently slowing and it is clear that some heat has exited the Canberra housing market.
Although values may edge lower, the outlook for Canberra’s housing market is likely to be relatively steady conditions.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/3/14/Widespread%2010.JPG" alt="">
With values now falling across most capital cities the question of course becomes when do the falls stop.
No one really knows the answer to that question, our models show, at least for the short-term, that values are likely to continue trending lower, with the rate of decline easing later this year and into 2020.
The other main question is once markets reach a trough, how quickly will the market recover?
Historically, market recoveries from their trough have generally been fairly rapid however, the recoveries have generally been driven by lower interest rates or a mix of stimulus such as the first home buyers grant boost.
Although there is an expectation that interest rates may move lower, we probably won’t see the entire rates cuts passed through to mortgage rates and the much tighter credit conditions are likely to limit any rebound in the housing market, particularly given borrowers are being assessed on their ability to repay a mortgage at a much higher rate (above 7%).
CAMERON KUSHER is a Senior Analyst for CoreLogic
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

House value downturn still spreading: Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The housing cycle and house prices always incite high interest in Australia. Until recently it was all about surging prices and poor affordability – particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. Over the last year it’s turned into how far prices will fall and what’s the impact on the economy.
Global issues and the election aside, the housing downturn is likely to be the main issue for Australia in 2019.
 How far have home prices fallen?
According to CoreLogic data, up until December capital city dwelling prices are down 7% from their September 2017 high. This masks a wide range though with Sydney down 11% from its July 2017 high, Melbourne down 7% from its November 2017 high, Perth down 16% and Darwin down 25% from their mid 2014 mining investment boom highs but other cities continuing to trend up to varying degrees. Recently the declines have been led by Sydney and Melbourne. House prices are on average down more than unit prices and prices in regional centres have generally held up better than capital cities.
What is driving the falls?
The fall in property prices comes after a boom – most recently over the five years to 2017 that in particular saw Sydney prices rise 72% and Melbourne prices gain 56%. This, on top of gains since the mid-1990s, saw a sharp deterioration in affordability, prices become overvalued relative to income, rents and their long-term trend and reach expensive levels by global standards. The surge in home prices went hand in hand with a surge in debt that has seen the ratio of household debt to income go from the low end of OECD countries to the top end. High prices and high debt left Australian housing very vulnerable.
What has changed in the last two years is that:
<ul>
<li>It’s become harder to get a loan as regulators forced banks to tighten lending standards and the Royal Commission seems to have made banks even more cautious. </li>
<li>A big pool of interest only borrowers are switching to principal and interest driving higher debt servicing costs. </li>
<li>Banks have cut lending to SMSF funds to invest in property. </li>
<li>The supply of units has surged to record levels. </li>
<li>Foreign demand has fallen sharply. </li>
<li>As rising prices fed on themselves by driving expectations for more price gains (FOMO - fear of missing out), falling prices are driving reduced price expectations and leading to reduced demand and FONGO (fear of not getting out). </li>
<li>Investors are starting to factor in less favourable negative gearing and capital gains tax arrangements if there is a change of government. </li>
<li>Problems regarding the Lacrosse and Opal buildings have dented confidence around building standards. </li>
<li>It's unlikely interest rate cuts will quickly end this property cycle downturn as occurred in the 2008 and 2010-12 downswings. Rates are already low &amp; debt is much higher.</li>
</ul>
What will be the impact of tax changes?
The Australian Labor Party’s policy since the last election has been to limit negative gearing to new property and double capital gains tax on investments held for more than 12 months. This is aimed at improving housing affordability which means lower prices. Put simply, such changes would make it less attractive for investors to invest in residential property which would be negative for prices.
A study by Riskwise Property Research and Wargent Advisory found that this would lower property prices ranging from 2 to 3% in Tasmania to around 9% in Sydney. While the tax changes are proposed to be grandfathered, it’s likely it’s already reducing investor demand as investors worry that when it comes time to sell their property if the tax changes occur then there will be less demand.
How far will home prices fall?
For Sydney and Melbourne our base case has been that prices would have a top to bottom fall of around 20% out to 2020. However, the further plunge in auction clearance rates and acceleration in price falls late last year suggest a deeper fall possibly of around 25% (although it’s impossible to be precise). This suggests around another 15% fall in Sydney and more in Melbourne. A 25% top to bottom drop would take prices back to where they were in late 2014/early 2015.
While prices in other cities are being affected by credit tightening they were less speculative and so are less vulnerable. Perth and Darwin have already seen prices fall back to decade ago levels. Other capital cities and regional centres generally didn’t have a boom and so are unlikely to have a bust. So for the rest of Australia flat prices to modest gains are likely. Taken together this suggests a top to bottom fall in national average prices of 10 to 15%, with another 5 to 10% this year.
Will home prices crash?
This is a bit of an unhelpful question like the “are we in a property bubble” questions of a few years ago as it’s hard to define and implies a degree of inevitability in terms of the implications. A 25% plunge in Sydney and Melbourne may seem like a crash but given the extent of the prior gains it’s arguably not. But a 25% national average fall would probably be interpreted as a crash.
Our assessment is that this is unlikely unless we see much higher interest rates or unemployment (neither of which are expected) driving a sharp rise in defaults and forced property sales or a collapse in immigration (which would collapse demand). Strong population growth is still driving strong underlying demand for housing. While mortgage stress is a risk, it tends to be overstated, and is unlikely to be a generalised issue unless interest rates or unemployment shoot higher. And, while Sydney and Melbourne are at risk, other cities have not seen the same boom &amp; so are unlikely to crash.
Although many like to make comparisons to the US at the time of the GFC, there are two big differences. Australia has not seen the surge in sub-prime loans where money was lent to home owners who often had “no income, no job, no asset” (NINJA loans). Secondly, our mortgages are full recourse meaning we won’t see “jingle mail”, where home owners can send back the keys just because the house value falls below their debt, which then saw the bank put the property back on the market pushing home prices even lower.
However, the risk of a crash cannot be ignored given the danger that banks may become too tight and that investors decide to exit in the face of falling returns.
Have home prices fallen before?
A common property myth is that prices only ever go up and never fall. But a simple look at history tells us this is not so. Real house prices (ie prices after the impact of inflation) in Sydney fell 36% in 1934-35, 32% in 1937-41, 41% in 1942-43, 12% in 1947-48, 14% in 1951-53, 12% in 1961-62 and 22% in 1974-77.
In nominal terms based on CoreLogic data Sydney dwelling prices fell 25% in 1980-83, 10% in 1989-91, 8% in 2004-06 and 7% in 2008-09. So a 25% fall this time around would be similar to that seen in the early 1980s.
What will be the impact on the economy? The housing downturn will affect the broader economy via slowing dwelling construction, negative wealth effects on consumer spending (ie, our wealth goes down, we feel poorer, we spend less than otherwise) and if rising defaults drive a further slowing in bank lending. The first two will detract 1 to 1.5 percentage points from economic growth. Growth in infrastructure spending and business investment should help keep the economy growing but its likely to be constrained to around 2.7% which in turn will keep wages and inflation low.
What is the impact on banks?
The main risk for banks is that the property downturn drives a rise in defaults. However, full recourse loans mean that just because home prices fall resulting in negative equity, defaults won’t necessarily rise. In the absence of much higher interest rates or unemployment making it harder for people to service their loans, a big rise in defaults is unlikely.
However, it’s still a risk and the housing downturn will likely mean slower bank lending which will constrain bank profits.
What will it mean for interest rates?
Constrained growth due to the housing downturn resulting in lower for longer inflation will likely drive the RBA to cut interest rates this year, with two cuts taking the cash rate to 1% by year end. Our base case is that this will occur in August and November (giving the RBA chance to assess the election and tax cuts), but soft data could see it come earlier.
Tax cuts from July are unlikely to be big enough (the Government is allowing for just $3bn pa in tax cuts which is just 0.1% of GDP) to head off the need for rate cuts.
Is the house price downturn good or bad?
This depends on who you are. For baby boomers who got in years ago, have paid off their debt and saw the value of their home rise to levels they never believed sustainable, a fall back to 2014/15 levels may be no big deal.
For those who got in more recently and have a big mortgage price falls are more of a downer and its this group for whom negative wealth effects will be greatest.
For millennials trying to get in its great news – assuming the housing downturn is not so great that it knocks the economy for six and they lose their jobs. For investors…
What does it mean for investors?
Over the very long-term, residential property adjusted for costs has similar returns to Australian shares. So, there is a role for it in investors’ portfolios. However, right now the slump in property prices in some cities is bad news for investors given that rental yields are often just 1-2% after costs.
Falling rents in Sydney are a double whammy. Add to this uncertainty about tax and it’s not a great time for a property investor. That said, other cities and regional centres offer more attractive rental yields than Sydney and Melbourne and falling prices in Sydney and Melbourne will throw up opportunities at some point.
Dr Shane Oliver is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist for AMP Capital.
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How bad will the housing downturn get? Shane Oliver answers the burning questions

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Sydney’s current house price downturn is the sharpest in more than two decades, although the duration is yet to surpass the 2004-06 slump, according to Domain's latest House Price Report.
The report found that for the second time since Domain records began in 1993, house prices have fallen for four consecutive quarters, the only other period this occurred was in 2008. 
House prices fell 3.2% over the quarter and 9.9% over the year to $1,062,619. 
Unit prices fell 3.3% over the quarter and 5.8% over the year to $702,012.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/1/Strip%20ad%20keep%20up%20in%202019.jpg" alt=""></a>
Domain Senior Research Analyst, Dr Nicola Powell said: "Despite the consistent quarterly moderations, the depth of the falls have not gained significant momentum. The pullback in price was anticipated given the stellar run of growth that lasted almost six years. Homeowners reaped an unprecedented gain of 89% over this period.
“Historical performance proves unit prices have a tendency to hold firmer than houses, with slumps being of shorter duration and intensity. Similar to houses, unit prices have also fallen for four consecutive quarters. The latest annual decline the steepest in more than 20 years, taking unit prices back to mid-2016 levels.
“Since changes to macroprudential policies began in late 2014, obtaining a home loan has become increasingly challenging. Although this has resulted in fewer buyers, it has removed the loans written on thin grounds. Having met more stringent lending standards, those who are active in the market are ready to transact.
"Astute investors, who are able to secure finance, may start to look to Sydney as they hunt for the right opportunity to purchase under softer market conditions. Educated investors will continue to take a careful approach, even with the 30% growth cap on interest-only loans lifted.
“Affordability is improving in the harbour city. First home buyers have fewer investors to compete against, greater choice and a wider window to make their purchase. This also provides opportunity for the upsize buyer. It may mean selling at a lower price point compared to the boom, but if buying and selling under the same market conditions, it is likely to be offset by a more affordable upsize purchase.”
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/1/23/Domain%20Q4%20Syd.JPG" alt="">
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