<p>An entity directed by HSN's Rafi Assouline and Rebel Property's Allen Linz has filed plans for an impressive new precinct in Woolloomooloo.</p>

<p>The major mixed-use development would transform a prominent William Street site into a new residential village anchored by affordable housing and a large public park.</p>

<p>The proposal, submitted as a State Significant Development Application, covers 164-172 and 174-194 William Street, a 6,398 sqm site between Forbes Street and Dowling Street on the southern edge of Woolloomooloo.</p>

<p>Designed by fjcstudio in collaboration with Bangawarra, Studio Bright and Tribe Studio Architects, the scheme would deliver 227 apartments across four residential buildings ranging in height up to 18 storeys, alongside retail space, public domain improvements and a new publicly accessible park.</p>

<p><img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0eb59b7c-914a-4a5c-b849-3a56749f5e93" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.18.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=mxM6EEqeoLjrCiTlCzTKTvzpKuh6kSkH" /></p>

<p>It's another design scheme for Rebel, who took <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-rebel-property-group-takes-woolloomooloo-precinct-to-nsw-government">concept plans to the NSW Gov late last year</a>.</p>

<p>The latest plans will be a mix of 167 build-to-sell apartments and 60 affordable apartments, with the affordable housing component representing 15 per cent of the project's gross floor area. The apartment mix includes 12 one-bedroom, 53 two-bedroom, 89 three-bedroom apartments and 13 penthouses, while the affordable housing component would comprise 42 one-bedroom and 18 two-bedroom apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3b3d4553-8a8c-4af5-aa8c-519ffb1e28c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.12%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=_Yb6ibN7eDnOtQjCNDK2eviORa4qzgv." /></p>

<p>Rebel Property is seeking to take advantage of the NSW Government's infill affordable housing bonus provisions under the Housing SEPP, which provide additional floor space and height in exchange for the delivery of affordable housing for a minimum of 15 years. The planning pathway allows a 30 per cent increase in floor space ratio and building height where 15 per cent of the development is dedicated to affordable housing.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>At the centre of the development is a 1,356 sqm sunlit public park designed to become a new community gathering space at the gateway to Woolloomooloo. The park would be complemented by a network of pedestrian laneways connecting William Street with the surrounding streets, improving permeability through what is currently a largely impermeable block.</p>

<p><img alt="Rebel" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="257af931-a393-4007-8c6d-7219796df58d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-12%20at%2011.20.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=KAHy94GrhaReFsWTGDKfy39EDJ8gEEv4" /></p>

<p>The design team says the public domain has been heavily influenced by the site's topography and Aboriginal cultural heritage, drawing on the escarpments, gullies and landscape characteristics that historically defined the area before urbanisation. The landscape design has been developed in partnership with First Nations consultancy Bangawarra.</p>

<p>The project would be delivered across four separate buildings. The William Street East and William Street West buildings, designed by fjcstudio, would contain the majority of the apartments. Melbourne-based Studio Bright has designed the Forbes Street building, while Tribe Studio Architects is responsible for the Dowling Street building.</p>

<p>Rebel had secured approval for the concept plans late last year.</p>


Joel Robinson

First look: HSN, Rebel, advances Woolloomooloo precinct plans

<p>A locally heritage-listed furniture showroom on Water Street is set to become the centrepiece of a new mixed-use residential development as local developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/keylin-group">Keylin</a> seeks approval for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lotus-on-water-street-290-water-street-fortitude-valley-qld-4006">Lotus on Water Street</a>, a 15-storey project on the Fortitude Valley side of Spring Hill.</p>

<p>The proposal spans 290 Water Street and 137-141 Warry Street, combining several properties into a 2,869 sqm site that sits between Fortitude Valley, Spring Hill and the rapidly evolving Victoria Park precinct. Keylin's plans would deliver 132 apartments alongside new retail, hospitality and commercial space, while retaining and repurposing the historic Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom that fronts Water Street.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/jackson-teece">Jackson Teece</a>, Lotus on Water Street comprises a 12-storey residential tower rising above a three-storey podium and communal rooftop terrace. The development includes 76 apartments classified as multiple dwellings and a further 56 units proposed as short-term accommodation, designed to be flexibly used as either accommodation or permanent residences. The apartment mix comprises six one-bedroom, 54 two-bedroom and 16 three-bedroom homes.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9822bb79-6c49-49c9-95ba-319e8c8d81c3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20front.png?VersionId=ioW8zbN4UVebbLetTFuv92t.HkdgfR5e" /></p>

<p>Residents would have access to an extensive rooftop recreation level spanning more than 1,200 sqm of communal open space. Plans include a pool, gym, sauna, infrared sauna, yoga area, library, private dining room, barbecue facilities and landscaped entertainment spaces, making the rooftop the project's largest shared amenity offering.</p>

<p>At street level, the proposal focuses on the adaptive reuse of the heritage buildings along Water Street, where 518 sqm of retail and commercial space is planned across shop, office and food and drink outlet uses. A permeable residential lobby would be positioned between the retained heritage buildings, creating a pedestrian connection between the historic streetscape and the new tower behind.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="269cf3e0-7d13-48bf-a318-05a00deb5c10" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20podium.png?VersionId=DLXmTCLsp6GOcLpQ0h.0z7wKCw59EhN_" /></p>

<p>The heritage retention strategy is central to the scheme. The development application notes that the Brunswick Home Furnishers Showroom and adjoining heritage buildings will remain, with only non-significant structures on the site earmarked for removal under a previously issued Heritage Exemption Certificate. Levels one and two of the new podium are recessed behind the heritage façades to maintain their prominence within the streetscape.</p>

<p>Jackson Teece has drawn inspiration from the site's manufacturing history when designing the podium. The planning documents state that the façade incorporates perforated metal screening that references the woven and rattan furniture historically produced on the site. Cascading and climbing plants are integrated throughout the podium to soften the building's presentation and screen parking levels behind. The landscape strategy also informs the project's name, Lotus on Water Street, drawing on the historic Spring Hollow waterholes that once ran through Spring Hill and the blue water lilies associated with Meeanjin, Brisbane's traditional name.</p>

<p>The proposal also incorporates the neighbouring property at 141 Warry Street, currently occupied by a healthcare service. The existing building would remain, with nine dedicated parking spaces allocated within the new development to support its ongoing operation. In total, Lotus on Water Street proposes 117 car spaces, including 110 resident spaces and seven visitor bays, alongside 100 bicycle spaces.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Keylin unveils heritage-led Lotus on Water Street tower in Fortitude Valley" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="70cf07bc-4fd8-4e70-92dd-be8b21c4e4f0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/fortitude%20valley%20site.png?VersionId=txlxrJImM0Sm_vTzHVKh5DDUkyL_CiiA" /></p>

<p>The site sits within the Spring Hill East Precinct of the Spring Hill Neighbourhood Plan and is positioned around 650 metres from both Fortitude Valley Station and Exhibition Station. It is also within walking distance of the King Street precinct, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Herston Quarter and Victoria Park, which is earmarked to become a major venue precinct ahead of the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.</p>

<p>Planning documents describe the location as a key gateway between Spring Hill and Fortitude Valley and highlight the area's increasing importance as new transport infrastructure and Olympic-related investment reshape Brisbane's inner north. The development team argues the project will contribute additional housing supply while activating a section of Water Street that has historically received less investment than other parts of the Valley.</p>

<p>Keylin has become increasingly active across Brisbane and southeast Queensland, assembling sites in strategic inner-city locations. They are currently selling and delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/oria-spring-hill-447-gregory-terrace-spring-hill-qld-4000">Oria Spring Hill</a>, just over 140 apartments due for completion in 2027.</p>


Keylin plans heritage-led Lotus on Water Street apartment development in Fortitude Valley

<p>Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.</p>

<p>The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.</p>

<p>One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.</p>

<p>"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.</p>

<p>"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]</p>

<p>The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.</p>

<p>PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.</p>

<p>"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]</p>

<p>Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.</p>

<p>Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.</p>

<p>The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.</p>

<p>"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.</p>

<p>"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]</p>

<p>Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.</p>

<p>Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]</p>


Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

<p>Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.</p>

<p>The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]</p>

<p>“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.</p>

<p>The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]</p>

<p>“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.</p>

<p>“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]</p>

<p>Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.</p>

<p>Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.</p>

<p>The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.</p>

<p>LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.</p>

<p>Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]</p>


Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

<p>Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?</p>

<p>Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.</p>

<p>NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.</p>

<p>“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.</p>

<p>"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.</p>

<p>Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.</p>

<p>“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”</p>

<p>Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.</p>

<p>“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”</p>

<p>She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.</p>

<p>“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”</p>


Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

Housing

<p>The Property Council of Australia has announced the important role the property industry will play in achieving net zero as NSW decarbonises its economy.</p>

<p>NSW director Luke Achterstraat said as NSW invests $4.8 million in speeding up the transformation of the state&rsquo;s built environment towards net zero emissions, buildings can provide some of the least cost abatement opportunities in the economy.&nbsp;</p>

<blockquote>
<p><strong>&ldquo;Accelerating Australia&rsquo;s transition to sustainable housing could both protect the home building sector, as well as spur growth in delivering more than half a billion dollars of additional investment in the construction industry by 2030 and create over 7,000 new jobs,&rdquo; Achterstraat said.</strong></p>
</blockquote>

<p>Effectively, this would also save Australians $600 million on their energy bills.&nbsp;</p>

<p>According to the Property Council, upgrading the energy efficiency of Australia&rsquo;s commercial buildings would not only stimulate economic activity through inputs of local labour, it would also deliver an estimated $12 billion in energy savings between 2016 and 2030.</p>

<p>&ldquo;Since efficient buildings are also healthier and more productive, gains in staff productivity are likely to dwarf the benefits in energy savings.&rdquo;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7149 project_image_fid=175541]</p>

<p>According to the <a href="https://arena.gov.au/renewable-energy/renewables-in-buildings/">Australian Renewable Energy Agency</a> (ARENA), buildings account for more than half of the nation&rsquo;s electricity consumption and are a major driver of &lsquo;peak demand&rsquo;.</p>

<p>An additional 2019 study revealed that the construction, operation and maintenance of buildings account for almost a <a href="https://theconversation.com/buildings-produce-25-of-australias-emissions-what-will-it-take-to-make-them-green-and-wholl-pay-105652">quarter of greenhouse gas emissions</a> in Australia.</p>

<p>&ldquo;We encourage the NSW State Government to leverage the unique opportunity the built environment offers to dramatically reduce carbon emissions in highly cost effective ways that will also stimulate the economy,&rdquo; Achterstraat said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&ldquo;As Australia heads towards a low emissions economy, governments must provide a clear pathway of policies that give certainty to industry and create economic opportunities for Australian businesses.&rdquo;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=7758 project_image_fid=150461]</p>

<p>Other key industry bodies, including the&nbsp;Green Building Council of Australia (GBCA), are also encouraging the government to make use of the largely untapped emissions reduction opportunities available within the sector.&nbsp;</p>

<p>GBCA CEO Davina Rooney&nbsp;Australia&rsquo;s property sector is already&nbsp;leading the way in carbon reduction&nbsp;and making commitments at COP26 can help the Australian Government build on this work.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Facilitating the transition of Australia&rsquo;s building sector towards an economy for the future is critical in improving and sustaining the future liveability, productivity and sustainability of our communities and cities.</p>

<p>Achterstraat concluded: &ldquo;With the right policy frameworks in place, we can minimise the costs of a transition&nbsp;to net zero emissions and create economic opportunities across all parts of industry, from sole traders and homeowners to large businesses.&rdquo;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>


Buildings account for more than half of the nation’s electricity consumption and are a major driver of ‘peak demand’

max.kwok_55688

Property industry to play a pivotal role in the race to net zero, says Property Council

<html><body>
<p>Tony Abbott is absolutely right. There’s something I never imagined I would ever say, but the Prime Minister is spot on with his comments this week about house prices. He said on Monday he thought rising house prices were a good thing.</p>
<p>He sought to make his comments as a home-owner at Forestville in the northern beaches area of Sydney, as well as the nation’s Prime Minister.</p>
<p>The Federal Government has got a lot wrong on real estate, with its pointless inquiries and its equally pointless targeting of foreign investors in a sabre-rattling attempt to be seen to be taking strong action.</p>
<p>But Abbott was right on the mark about house prices. It’s long overdue for someone in authority to make the point that for people who own homes, which means the vast majority of Australian households, rising property values are a good thing. </p>
<p>They’re also a good thing for the nation.</p>
<p>For way too long, mainstream media has characterised any rise in house prices as a national crisis. It’s been the dominant tone in newspapers since the start of the century, which began with a genuine national property boom from 2001 to 2003, and it’s reached the point of absurdity more recently with coverage of the Claytons boom centred on Sydney.</p>
<p>Media has also lost all sense of balance with its treatment of the affordability issue. They’ve turned first-home buyers into a kind of protected species, to be fussed over to the exclusion of everyone else, including the seven out of 10 households who own their homes and want their values to rise.</p>
<p>Here’s what the Prime Minister said on Monday: “This government is trying to make housing more available, we’ve tried to make housing more affordable, and the best way to make housing more affordable is to keep interest rates low and stable and that’s exactly what’s happening and trying to make sure the economy is strong.</p>
<p>“As someone who, along with a bank, owns a house in Sydney I do hope that our housing prices are increasing. I do want housing to be affordable, but nevertheless I also want house prices to be modestly increasing."</p>
<p>That’s probably the only time in his reign that Abbott has spoken on behalf of most Australians.</p>
<p>Notwithstanding the misinformation that often describes our housing as the most expensive in the world - and the fuzzy logic that has turned the current up-cycle in Sydney into a national bubble - Australia continues to have one of the world’s highest home ownership rates. Most home-owners with mortgages are ahead on their repayments, while mortgage delinquencies are at record lows. These facts suggest a market that’s healthy and sustainable.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>Most of us want property values to rise – and so does the nation. We’re all tasked with the challenge of providing for our retirement years amid a rapidly ageing population and a fragile Budget.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p>That demands that we invest and grow our assets. For many, the cornerstone of the process is the family home and its value.</p>
<p>So the Prime Minister leads the nation in wanting prices to rise across Australia. The problem is, they’re not.</p>
<p>The latest research figures suggest house values are going backwards in Darwin and Hobart, stagnating in Perth and rising only marginally in Canberra, Brisbane and Adelaide. Sydney, up 16%, has the only boom housing market.</p>
<p>Apartments markets are falling in Perth, Hobart, Canberra and Darwin, and there’s no meaningful growth in Brisbane or Adelaide. Melbourne is up only 3%. Even Sydney’s rise of 8.8% is quite moderate.</p>
<p>There’s nothing in those figures to support the notion of a bubble, nor the bleating of those who claim an affordability crisis, in contradiction of the situation described by the affordability indexes.</p>
<p>It says something about the state of journalism in Australia when the Prime Minister can generate a media storm by commenting that rising property values are a good thing.</p>
<p><em>TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
<p>Terry is presenting a free webinar with Property Observer editor at large Jonathan Chancellor on Tuesday June 16 at 12.30pm titled on why research is the key to successful property investing in 2015. Sign up here.</p>
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Tony Abbott is absolutely right on house prices: Terry Ryder

<html><body>
<p>That pesky property bubble is mainly contained to the investors chasing yields and taking advantage of a chronic under-supply which is driving up rents – well it was however, we are now starting to see rents flat lining given supply has significantly increased.</p>
<p>New lending initiatives are quickly changing the investor landscape where I suspect it will be a very long time before we see lenders offering 90 per cent loans as we are now seeing lending ratios sitting more around the 70% mark. <a href="/expert-insights/overseas-buyers-will-support-sydney-house-prices-during-apra-crackdown-nab">Overseas buyers will support Sydney house prices during APRA crackdown: NAB</a>; it is fair to say that the federal government won’t be tweaking the foreign buyer ratios (presently at 100 per cent) anytime soon.</p>
<p>There is a reason for this; Australia’s population is set to hit 40 million people by 2056. In order to meet this demand we will see the greatest infrastructure spending in Australia’s history given it’s been calculated that by 2056 Australia will need a further 1,100,000 apartments. Across Australia that means an additional 27,000 apartments each year for the next 41 years, it is expected Sydney and Melbourne will do the majority of the heavy lifting. This also plainly identifies why the Baird government wants to amalgamate the councils to ensure that these new developments keep getting approved.</p>
<p>The message is quite clear that if you want to reside in close proximity to the CBD you will have to live with an avalanche of high density developments.</p>
<p>This week the residential data from the 34th Property Directions Survey was released which is an industry based group comprising property experts – Valuers, Fund Managers, Property Analysts and Property Financiers.</p>
<ul>
<li>58% of respondents stated that Sydney residential property was in or entering a bubble, while 53%t of the respondents believe that the Melbourne property market is in the same position. Seventy per cent of the survey respondents do not believe that the Brisbane residential market was in a bubble.</li>
<li>The majority of the respondents also believe residential property prices will continue to rise for 6 to 12 months. Fifty – three per cent of respondents believe that Sydney residential property prices will continue to rise for either 6 or 12 months with 26% stating 18 months. Respondents are more certain in their predictions for Melbourne residential property with 76%seeing prices continuing to rise for 6 to 12 months.</li>
<li>In 2016, Sydney residential property is seen as reaching the top of the property cycle and moving past the top in 2017. In 2016 respondents see Melbourne residential property having passed the top of the cycle but remaining close to the top through to 2017. Brisbane residential property is seen to be just nearing the top of the cycle.</li>
<li>All respondents to the Property Directions Survey see low interest rates as either a significant or very significant driver of demand for residential property in Sydney, while 95% also point to foreign investment being significant or very significant.</li>
<li>Respondents list a number of other factors they also believe play a role in increasing demand in Sydney, such as population growth, low supply over the past decade and the trend towards smaller households.</li>
<li>The major drivers are considered to be similar for the Melbourne residential property market however 94% see foreign investment as a significant or very significant driver and 87% sight low interest rates as significant to very significant.</li>
<li>A large majority of respondents see low interest rates as the main driver of demand and prices for Brisbane and Perth residential property; however this view is not as strong as it is for Sydney and Melbourne. The majority of survey respondents do not view foreign investment as a significant or very significant factor in driving demand in Brisbane or Perth, but believe negative gearing plays a bigger role.</li>
<li>Most respondents believe both interest rates and inflation will remain similar for next year, while moving higher in the next three years.</li>
<li>It’s a different story with foreign investment, with a small majority of respondents believing levels will remain similar for the next six months. Respondents are less certain over the next 12 months, but most see foreign investment at similar or higher levels. Respondents are even more uncertain about the outlook for 2018,</li>
<li>Some respondents listed current or emerging factors which they believe may have an impact on the Australian property market. Factors listed include a slowing Chinese economy, any increase in the unemployment rate and potential changes to foreign investment or immigration rules.</li>
</ul>
<p>So the eastern seaboard is where we will see the majority of the new developments with NSW leading the way. This again will be investor led although it would be reasonable to suggest that with such a huge apartment platform the house prices will continue to rise with less single residential housing being built.</p>
<p>With that in mind it’s scary to think where prices will go for houses within a 15 kilometre radius of the Sydney CBD. Through the roof springs to mind.</p>
<p>As for that pesky property bubble – it won’t be doing any damage when the vast majority of suburbs across Sydney are posting record low stock levels. When markets are booming (or bubbling along) you see record stock levels which is the complete opposite to what we are seeing across Sydney at the present.</p>
<h4>MOSMAN – 2088</h4>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 85</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 55</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 46</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 63</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 41</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 43</p>
<h4>CREMORNE – 2090</h4>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 8</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 7</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 2</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 9</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 11</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 8</p>
<h4><span style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.3em;">NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</span></h4>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 9</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 3</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 2</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 42</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 29</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 30</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em><span>ROBERT SIMEON</span> is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. <br>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000. </em></p>
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Living with an avalanche of high density development: Robert Simeon

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<p>Investor activity has surged over recent years and now shows that in March 2015, investors committed to $12.9 billion in housing finance.</p>
<p>By comparison, investment mortgage commitments reached a recent low of $6.3 billion in April 2011.</p>
<p>The recent rise to $12.9 billion has seen the value of commitments rise 105% in less than 4 years.</p>
<p>While state data is seasonally adjusted, these markets tend to be a little more volatile. Nevertheless, it shows $13.5 billion worth of commitments in March 2015.</p>
<p>A state by state breakdown shows that nationally, NSW accounted for 46.0% of all investor mortgage commitments. The value of commitments in NSW was greater than the value of all states and territories combined except for WA. Of particular note is the fact that this data largely reflects what is happening in Sydney which experienced a significant rise in investment lending over the past 3 years.</p>
<p>Across all states the recent low in investment lending has been in either January or February of certain years and we’ve found that this time of year is a seasonally slower period for mortgage lending.</p>
<p>After APRA wrote to Australian banks, credit unions and building societies late last year re-affirming sound residential mortgage policies we have recently started to see many banks change their lending policies.</p>
<p>A large focus of these changes has been around investment mortgages and over the coming months we should eventually see investment lending start to slow.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/06/04/700_Statebreakout.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/06/04/700_Statebreakout.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/06/04/700_lending.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><span> </span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/06/04/700_lending.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p><span>NSW </span>– in March 2015, investors committed to $6.2 billion in mortgages, a year-on-year increase of 37.2%. Over the past 3 years the value of investment mortgage commitments has increased by 155%. If you remove refinances, investors accounted for 60.0% of all new lending in NSW in March 2015.</p>
<p><span>Vic </span>– investors committed to $3.1 billion in mortgages in March, a 17.1% year-on-year rise. Investors accounted for 48.6% of new lending in March and the value of commitments is 70% higher over the past 3 years.</p>
<p><span>Qld </span>– at $2.2 billion in March, investor lending has risen by 43.1% year-on-year and is 69% higher over the past 3 years. Investors accounted for 47.2% of new lending over the month.</p>
<p><span>SA </span>– investment lending has increased by 28.3% year-on-year to March 2015 to $508.8 million and has increased by 32% over the past 3 years. Investors accounted for 43.0% of new lending in March 2015.</p>
<p><span>WA </span>– investors accounted for 39.0% of new mortgage lending over the month with $1.1 billion in commitments. Investor mortgage commitments have increased by 4.5% year-on-year and by 31% over the past 3 years.</p>
<p><span>Tas </span>– investors currently account for 30.5% of new mortgage lending <span>$</span>with a total of $70.8 million. The value of investment commitments is 21.3% higher over the year and has increased by 41% over the past 3 years.</p>
<p><span>NT </span>– at $103.5 million in March 2015, investment lending is -1.1% lower over the year. Investment lending has increased by 14% over the past 3 years and investors currently account for 55.3% of all new mortgage lending.</p>
<p><span>ACT </span>– at $168.3 million in March 2015, investment lending is 2.9% higher over the year. Investment lending has increased by 8% over the past 3 years and investors currently make-up 41.8% of all new mortgage lending.</p>
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Investment lending set to slow: Cameron Kusher

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<p><span>Talk in the industry is about whether or not house prices are in a bubble, if so have we been in one for some time and is it expensive bubble or a seriously expensive one?</span></p>
<p><span>One quote I read recently in relation to the current housing market was "One thing seems clear: If we’re having a discussion about whether or not house prices are in a bubble (as we have been for some time now), house prices do not represent good value at the current level. The debate is about whether they are expensive, or seriously expensive."</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Now, of course we're all guilty of making sweeping comments - and myself more than most given my tendency towards a macro focus on this blog - but this snippet gives the full broom treatment to Australia's property markets.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The last time I checked in at the back end of 2014 there were 9,448,300 dwellings in Australia, a figure that will be approaching 9.5 million or so today. </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em; font-weight: bold;"> </span></p>
<div id="post-body-4846812275271867441" class="post-body entry-content">
<div><img src="/images/2015/05/22/Waregent1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Are some of those dwellings expensive? Indeed, and some of them are extraordinarily so in the present and persistent low interest rate climate.</span></div>
<div>
<div> </div>
<div>But equally, aren't some house prices very cheap? Very much so - in outer suburban Adelaide and Hobart, for example, and in any number of regional centres - although of course, "cheap" does not been good value ("cheap today is cheap tomorrow" as the old real estate mantra goes).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The same holds true of share prices and indices, for that matter.<br><br>Are some share indices and stocks trading at high valuations? Yes. In fact, globally some markets are romping ahead to dizzying heights as I looked at only earlier this week.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That does not mean that some individual stocks don't offer great value, though, particularly for those investors with the requisite skills in fundamental analysis.<br><br>With the benefit of hindsight, although not my favourite sector due to being capital intensive and reliant on the sale of commodities, 1999 was a great time to buy resources stocks. 2009 was an amazing time to load up on bank shares.  Today, health care and materials companies are worthy of consideration.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/05/22/wargent2.gif" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Of course, this doesn't mean all companies in a sector are worth buying, or even any of them. There is no "one size fits all."</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>Focus</strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>This was one of a raft of pieces of late referencing popping property bubbles, property speculators, the end of the property boom, shares now being due to outperform property, and so on.</div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/05/22/monty.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
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<div><img src="/images/2015/05/22/monty2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>All fair enough, although the truth is that ex-Sydney (and to a lesser extent Melbourne) there hasn't actually been a property boom to date in this cycle, rather a protracted period of relatively flat prices in real terms, and correspondingly there is no "Australian property bubble".<br><br>Resources influenced Perth and Darwin are seeing declining rents, the polar opposite of frothy conditions, while a number of mining towns have already capitulated. Canberra's property markets seem similarly uninspired.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Why so much angst from equities-only investors then, one wonders, apart from the wider ramifications for the Australian economy and share markets of a genuine and material property correction?</div>
<br><div>An obvious point from a fundie perspective is that more funds under management equals more fees, so naturally enough does make sense to point out from time to time the benefits of a diversified share portfolio over the risks of holding a specific investment property or portfolio of properties.<br><br>I'm not sure whether it makes a great deal of difference, though. In my experience there exists a fair proportion of investors who are simply "shares people" or "real estate" people, and they won't ever be budged either way!<br><br><strong>Stock valuations decline</strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perhaps another of the reasons for the angst is that the Australian share markets (generally!) have been on the receiving end of a bit of a shellacking over the past month, which naturally the financial media reports unfailingly on a daily basis.</div>
<br><div>Since threatening to crunch through 6,000 on March 18 the market has tanked, paring all the way back down to 5,600.<br><br>6,000 now seems like a distant dream once again, although the recent dovish Board Minutes from the Reserve Bank reinstated a moderate easing bias, which may help to fire markets up again.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Now as intelligent people both you and I know that such short term movements don't mean a great deal for stock market investors with a long term mindset.<br><br>In fact, cheaper market prices equates to a greater array of buying opportunities for those with an appropriately disciplined investment approach.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But it's funny what daily media headlines can do to folk, particularly when Sydney house prices are suddenly once again rising at an annualised pace of somewhere north of 15%. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The XJO (ASX 200) chart shows that this index has pulled back to the same level as the beginning of March 2007, well over eight years ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/05/22/ASX.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>While experienced investors are well aware that accumulated returns inclusive of dividends have been robust, a good proportion of Mum and Dad investors tend to like to see capital gains, preferably of the fast buck variety.<br><br><strong>Sydney property leads cycle</strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>What seemed to be a highly unlikely outcome for much of the past decade is now once again becoming a reality - Sydney houses selling for double what they did during their last cyclical low around 2005.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Granted I have only come across a few such examples to date, all of them houses rather than apartments, and usually in popular beachside suburbs such as Bondi, but I expect this will become an increasingly common occurrence over the year ahead.</div>
<div>
<br>Of course, the main advantage that property investors have over share market investors is the use of leverage which can magnify gains...and losses.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>An investment which doubles in value can see the dollars invested increased 10 or 20 fold before transaction and holding costs - for those who get it right and are prepared to hold through the lean periods of the cycle.</div>
<div>
<br>Dare we even mention it, some folk even used 100 per cent leverage in the period leading up the the financial crisis, making the returns on "investment" extraordinarily high.<br><br><strong>Risks to the downside</strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There is an old saying in investment that if something sounds too good to be true then it probably is.<br><br>So, what's the catch? </div>
<div> </div>
<div>One such catch is that most people just aren't very good at investing in property. The stats show that most don't achieve their goals, owning only one or two properties, with many selling within the first early years of ownership.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's not always entirely their fault, mind - property advisers have recommended some desperate choices over the last decade, including mining towns and any number of far-flung locations which haven't fared anything like as well as Sydney has. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It was popular for a while to say that capital city investors were singing the same old tune from years ago and had failed to move with the times, though I haven't heard anyone saying that of late as the Sydney market continues to take off.<br><br>Inner ring Brisbane is now seeing prices rising again too, though not for all property types and suburbs it must be said, and I believe that generic apartments will struggle through this cycle.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong>Spruikfest</strong></div>
<br><div>You only had to set foot in the <em>Sydney Homebuyer Show</em> this year to see that the property forum was packed to the rafters with the flocking crowds far outweighing the numbers at the share trading and investing event.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is what always happens when house prices are rising, of course.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Unfortunately so too were the self managed superannuation fund (SMSF) property spruikers out in force, barking orders about setting up trust structures to buy property to anyone who would listen - and anyone who wasn't listening as well, come to think of it.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The thing to remember is that property and shares are not really directly comparable investments for any number of reasons which I don't have the space or inclination to repeat here.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Equities are a far "cleaner" and more liquid asset class, very well suited to retirees of the right mindset contrary to popular opinion, particularly given the favourable tax treatment of franked dividend income in Australia.<br><br>No tenants or related headaches. No repairs and maintenance bills, Quick and easy to sell parcels of shares. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Property investment suits many long term Mum and Dad investors, despite its illiquidity, and the leverage can see them magnify gains (or losses) at a greater rate, provided they invest well (or badly).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>For reasons I never really got my head around some property advisers have recommended investing in towns where there is acres of land around and thus no scarcity. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The key to long term successful property investment is finding an asset which is in extremely high demand.<br><br>This generally means the larger capital cities, near jobs and where people want and need to live - and is scarce in supply, which ideally means a dwelling with a land value content, and in a land-locked suburban location.<br><br>The long run data shows that even most average capital city property has generally done well through the cycles, beating inflation over time.<br><br>It won't be long before the Sydney median house price has doubled again since 2003, soon thereafter to be threatening the $1 million level.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/05/22/Property.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><em><span>PETE WARGENT </span>is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>His book '<a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>' is out now.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Blowing bubbles (again): Pete Wargent

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<p><span>Australia's four most populous states accounted for a thumping 93.4% of Australia's </span>population growth<span> over the year to Q1 2015, with New South Wales (its total population increasing to 7,597,000), Victoria (5,915,000), Queensland (4,767,000) and Western Australia (2,587,000) being the four states in question.</span><br><br><span>You could more or less chuck a soggy beach towel over the rest. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/25/B1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/25/B1.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>The greatest gains in headcount across the most recent 12 month reporting period were seen in New South Wales (+101,200), Victoria (+97,500) and Queensland (+61,100), and as we've already seen that the recent "births" figures are almost certainly materially </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/population-growth-surprise" target="_blank">understated</a><span> for the two most populous states. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/25/b2.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/25/b2.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<div>Population growth rates have slowed dramatically in the resources states and territories, including in Queensland (+1.3 per cent), and particularly in Western Australia (+1.4 per cent).<br><br>Meanwhile population growth in the Northern Territory has dried up almost completely (+0.2 per cent), and with net interstate migration away from the Top End reaching its most rapid level on record (-3,400) population 'growth' is set to turn negative in due course. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Population growth has also slowed in another state which is suffering from a "brain drain" - South Australia - where net interstate migration of negative -3,000 has helped to pull the rate of population growth down to just +0.8 per cent, though it still needs to slow further.<br><br>The 'Festival State' has not created a single full time job on a net basis since 2007 and the result has been a horribly increasing rate of unemployment.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/25/b2-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/25/b2-1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Components of growth</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Net overseas migration remains very strong in New South Wales (+67,000) and Victoria (+55,000), but has clearly slowed in the resources states as the mining construction boom begins to fade into the rear view mirror.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/25/B5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/25/B5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>The most interesting trend for me over the last few years has been to note just how few people have been choosing to leave Sydney and Melbourne for cheaper or warmer climes (refer to the net interstate migration chart below), instead opting to stay put for the relative security of their capital city employment.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said, I do know more than a few people - including myself, in fact - who have recently decided to relocate from Sydney to Brisbane.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Brisbane is not only comparatively inexpensive, it also has a warmer climate and is considerably less crowded - and thus if the jobs market is creating the requisite employment it should be a no-brainer from my perspective!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The data below shows that the trickle of Sydneysiders moving to Queensland <em>has </em>only been a trickle through this cycle to date, and most certainly not a flood.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said, net interstate migration for the March quarter into Queensland (+1,300) was plenty stronger than we saw in the prior corresponding period (+700) taking annual net interstate migration into the Sunshine State back up to +6,200 from its recent nadir.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/25/B4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/25/B4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Totting that little lot up we can see in the chart below that population growth has slowed significantly in Western Australia (+35,300) and Queensland (+61,100), and has slowed further in South Australia (+13,900).</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/25/B3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/09/25/B3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>On the other hand annual population growth remains supremely strong in New South Wales (+101,200) and Victoria (+97,500) despite the under-reporting of births over the past six months.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Housing supply</span></strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On an obliquely related note, although I can't remember exactly where I read it, somewhere this week was a piece which suggested that the construction of 10,000 apartments over four years at Sydney's Green Square would form part of a "tsunami" of oversupply in Sydney.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I'm not sure if this was some kind of gee-up, but as you can see the in the figures above with the state population having increased by close to +400,000 over the past four years alone...I dunno, but I reckon someone's having a giraffe.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Whatever the case, New South Wales has an existing stock of close to <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/nsw-dwelling-stock-value-explodes" target="_blank">3 million dwellings</a>, and to my knowledge there has not been any recorded example of such a tiny fraction of additional construction having a material impact on a capital city property market.<br><br>Like London, Sydney is a city which is increasingly constrained in terms of its land supply in desirable locations, and is a city which is more or less permanently in a position of requiring new supply.<br><br>Now granted we're presently constructing proportionately far too many of those "shoebox" type developments - no arguments there - but as the Greater Sydney population continues to mushroom over time any such localised examples of oversupply will only ever be temporary in nature. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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State population trends: Pete Wargent

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<p class="Body"><span class="Body__Char">Commentary on the affordability issue has become so twisted that media is quoting Sydney’s median house price as a relevant topic.</span></p>
<p class="Body"><span class="Body__Char">We recently had the <em><span class="Body__Char">Australian Financial Review</span></em>, which should know better, writing about the level of income needed by a first-home buyer to afford the median Sydney dwelling, as well as the median-priced dwelling in the other capital cities.</span></p>
<p class="Body"><span class="Body__Char">My question is: how is this in any way relevant to the issue of affordability?</span></p>
<p class="Body"><span class="Body__Char">First-home buyers don’t buy at the median price, not in Sydney, nor in Melbourne, nor anywhere else in Australia. First-home buyers buy below the median, indeed well below it. Always have done – and, I dare say, always will.</span></p>
<p class="Body"><span class="Body__Char">The median price for dwellings in the major cities at the moment are $750,000 in Sydney, $570,000 in Melbourne, $465,000 in Brisbane and $510,000 in Perth. According to CoreLogic RP Data, the median across the eight state and territory capital cities is $570,000.</span></p>
<p class="Body"><span class="Body__Char">But the average first-home-buyer loan at present is $334,800, according to the latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Assuming the typical first-timer has a 10% deposit, this means the median dwelling price for a first-home buyer is around $370,000.</span></p>
<p class="Body"><span class="Body__Char">Given that 25% of all residential sales are being made to first-time buyers, there’s are a lot of novice buyers out there acquiring properties at the lower end of the market. In the past year, around 120,000 Australians have made a first-time purchase.</span></p>
<p class="Body"><span class="Body__Char">Those numbers are relevant to the discussion. The median price in our most expensive city is not.</span></p>
<p class="Body"><span class="Body__Char">The Real Estate Institute of Western Australia published some numbers this week that also have some relevance to the topic. Good to see those people putting out material that’s actually useful to a sensible debate, unlike some of their recent talk-down-the-market nonsense.</span></p>
<p class="Normal">REIWA president David Airey said, quite rightly, that it was important not to use the median price as the guide for the costs of getting into the market for first-home buyers and others.</p>
<p class="Normal">Airey said the median was the middle point in the market and that half of all sales were under it. This means buyers don’t need to be able to afford the median-priced dwelling to enter the market.</p>
<p class="Normal">I think it’s sad that anyone needs to make this point, which is so obvious it should be a given in the debate. But the media coverage of the issue has become so irrational that industry people have to go back to kindergarten levels to try inject some balance.</p>
<p class="Normal">“It’s also important to recognise that first-home buyers, in particular, usually purchase homes well under the median price, with Office of State Revenue data for May showing the median point for entry-level buyers being $450,000 in Perth and $366,000 in the WA regions,” Airey said.</p>
<p class="Normal">“Even the median purchase price for first-home buyers means that half of all entry-level buyers are paying under these city and country median prices for their demographic.”</p>
<p class="Normal">Airey said it was more useful for first-home buyers to look at the lower quartile, or bottom 25%, of the more affordable homes in an area to get a better perspective of what was available at more accessible prices.</p>
<p class="Normal">REIWA data for the year to March shows that the south-east sub-region of Perth through Gosnells, Armadale and Serpentine-Jarrahdale had the most affordable lower quartile, with  houses selling around $370,000.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Normal">Apartments and land were most affordable in the south-west sub-region through Cockburn, Kwinana and Rockingham.</p>
<p class="Normal">Airey said even within the various sub-regions around Perth there were individual suburbs which were under the lower quartile for their local area.</p>
<p class="Normal">“For example, the central sub-region has a lower quartile of $550,000, but it’s possible to find houses in Balga priced at around $385,000.</p>
<p class="Normal">“Similarly, while the median price for units in the south-west sub-region is $277,000, you can find them in Orelia at around $196,000.”</p>
<p class="Normal">Airey said that buyers should not be put off by the median price for a region or suburb, and look to the lower quartile for opportunities in areas they might initially think are out of their price range based on the overall median.</p>
<p class="Normal">So true, so bleeding obvious and so sad that anyone needs to stand up and say it.<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p class="Body"> </p>
<p><em>TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a> </em></p>
<p>Terry was recently joined by <em>Property Observer</em> editor at large Jonathan Chancellor for a webinar on why research is the key to successful property investing in 2015. You can download slides and audio from the webinar here.</p>
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Just stand up and say it: Terry Ryder

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<p>With each passing week, the rhetoric on housing issues becomes less and less rational. On topics such as affordability and negative gearing, we have something akin to a form of mass hysteria. Apparently sensible people are making statements which, years from now, will cause them great embarrassment when they look back.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">With the media we have in Australia, it’s almost impossible to have a rational debate on any subject. Media runs with its pre-conceived story lines and the only people who get heard are those willing to make outlandish comments that fit the ordained theme – such as, the Great Australian Dream is dead or negative-geared property owners are all rich bastards being subsidised by the taxation system or there’s a bubble, whatever that means.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Attention-seekers like economists know how to grab a bit of limelight – pander to media’s obsession with its pre-determined headlines, all of them based around Sydney’s property prices.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The great peculiarity of this “debate”, for lack of a better word, is that it’s happening when we don’t have a property boom or a national affordability problem. We have only one major city with boom-time price growth (although tame relative to 2002-2003). </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">If that one city was Perth or Adelaide, we wouldn’t be having this discussion. Media is all agog about it because the one elevated city market is Sydney and we have a hopelessly Sydney-centric media.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Around 20 million Australians live outside Sydney and they’re all watching this runaway hysteria about real estate with mounting bemusement. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">It’s difficult for people in Perth and Hobart, where markets are going backwards, to relate to the notion that they need to accept lending restrictions because Sydney allegedly has a problem. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">In Darwin, where vacancies are high, rents have dropped 5% in the past year and apartment prices are down 4%, people are wondering what the fuss is all about.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">And in Canberra, which is producing similar statistics to Darwin, they must be scratching their heads at the panic that’s driving commentary three hours up the road in Sydney.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">One of the absurdities of the affordability “debate” is that people keep referring to the Sydney median price and how first-time buyers can’t afford it. Sydney’s median is too high for a first-home buyer, therefore Australia has an affordability crisis. </span></p>
<p>The latest is serial publicity seeker and failed politician Graham Richardson, who is sadly typical of electronic media celebrities – a big ego, a loud voice and zero knowledge of important subjects. </p>
<p>His real estate rant on Sky News this week was a cacophony of misinformation. He said “the mean” dwelling in Sydney cost “a million dollars”, when the true figure is $752,000. He said this was “completely and utterly out of the reach of the new player”. But first-time buyers don’t buy at the median price – they buy below the median price, in Sydney and everywhere else. </p>
<p>A median price of $752,000 means half of all sales are below that figure – and in many Sydney locations it’s a lot below that figure. The No.1 most popular suburb in Sydney for buyers of dwellings is Blacktown (the suburb) – close to 1,000 homes changed hands there in the past 12 months, at a median price for $385,000 for apartments and $535,000 for houses (which means half of all sales were lower than those figures). Blacktown (the municipality) is also the No.1 LGA in NSW for population growth and the No.1 venue for first-home buyers. </p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">There are hundreds of similar examples across the Sydney metropolitan area. So Richardson’s throwaway line that “it’s a grim future” for buyers in Sydney is nothing more than sound-byte generation from a pointless talking head. </span></p>
<p>He did mention that it wasn’t so bad elsewhere in Australia (a brief acknowledgment there is life in Australia beyond Sydney) and he mentioned Brisbane. He said prices were okay there because “there’s been no increase for years.” Again, wrong. But, then, being wrong in a loud voice is how “Richo” makes his way in the world. Sad.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, some attention-seeking behaviour of The Greens has added to the morass that is real estate coverage.</p>
<p>The Greens can be competent advocates of important issues like environment (though less so since Bob Brown retired) but they will never be serious contenders for government while they remain economically illiterate. Their latest clanger is the claim that scrapping negative gearing would raise $42 billion for government over 10 years. It would do nothing of the sort. </p>
<p>They’ve misunderstood the budget impacts, even without considering the fact that state and federal budgets would be losers if negative gearing was scrapped and people stopped buying investment properties, because of the lost revenue in stamp duty, capital gains tax and land tax. </p>
<p>The impact on rentals, for people who are unable to buy homes, would be alarming, as it was in the 1980s when negative gearing was (briefly) disallowed. </p>
<p>But the nation overall and the federal budget long-term would be the biggest losers, because if people aren’t investing to fund their retirement years, the nation has to fund them with pensions – and with our ageing population and the fragile state of the federal budget, that’s not sustainable. </p>
<p>The Greens have characterised negative gearing as low-income taxpayers subsidizing rich people – and that is simply dishonest. Three-quarters of people who own investment properties are average income earners who own just one property. </p>
<p>Most of them believe that investing for their retirement is doing the right thing by the nation. In condemning them with this poorly-considered and downright deceitful announcement, the Greens are making a serious error of judgment.</p>
<p><em>TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
<p>Terry is presenting a free webinar with Property Observer editor at large Jonathan Chancellor on Tuesday June 16 at 12.30pm titled on why research is the key to successful property investing in 2015. Sign up here.</p>
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Housing rhetoric becoming less rational: Terry Ryder

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<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released demographic data for the March 2015 quarter earlier today. The data showed that despite a quarterly bounce in population growth, the rate of growth continues to trend lower.</p>
<p>The national population increased by 1.35% over the 12 months to March 2015 which was the lowest annual rate of growth in nine years. Although growth slowed it should still be noted that Australia’s population increased by 315,952 persons over the past year. Although population growth has slowed it remains well above the long term average of 256,801 per annum.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/25/Chart-13.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/09/25/Chart-13.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Over the March 2015 quarter, the national population increased by 93,942 persons, substantially higher than what was recorded over the December 2014 quarter when the nationally population recorded an increase of 64,010 persons.  Over the 12 months to March 2015, the national population increased by 315,952 persons which is the lowest annual increase in population since the 12 month period ending June 2011 when the nation recorded population growth of 308,274 persons.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/25/Chart-23.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/25/Chart-23.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p><span>At a national level there are two components of population growth, natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration. Each of these measures recorded a bounce over the past quarter however, both components continue to trend lower on an annual basis. Over the 12 months to March 2015 natural increase was recorded at 142,898 persons and net overseas migration was recorded at 173,054. Natural increase was -9.7% lower over the year while net overseas migration was -16.0% lower, its largest annual fall since March 2011.  </span></p>
<p><span>While the decrease in the rate of natural increase implies a sharp rise in deaths or slowdown in births, it is important that the ABS has noted that there are problems with the preliminary natural increase estimates due to a lag in registering births in both NSW and Vic.  We are likely to an upwards correction to this data over the coming quarters which will lift the rate of population growth.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/25/Chart-32.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/09/25/Chart-32.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p>Across the states and territories the rate of annual population growth is lower compared to the same time a year ago across the board. Although population growth is slowing, the sharpest slowdown in population growth is being felt in WA and NT. In WA the rate of population growth has slowed to 1.4% over the year to March 2015 from 3.5% two years earlier.  Similarly, annual population growth in the NT was 3.0% two years ago and the latest data shows it at just 0.2% over the past year.</p>
<p>Looking at the components of population growth we will ignore natural increase at this juncture because the ABS have highlighted some issues with the data for NSW and Vic. The two other drivers of population growth at a state and territory level are overseas migration and interstate migration.  NSW and Vic are the major benefactors of net overseas migration to Australia while Vic and Qld are the only benefactors of interstate migration.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/25/Chart-4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/09/25/Chart-4.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Over the 12 months to March 2015, net overseas migration to Australia was recorded at 173,054 persons. More than two thirds of net overseas migration flowed to NSW (38.9%) and Vic (31.6%). If you add in Qld (12.1%), the three most populous states accounted for 82.6% of net overseas migration. Although net overseas migration is trending lower, the impact of the end of the mining boom is very clear. In March 2013, annual net overseas migration was recorded at 41,745 persons in Qld, 53,834 persons in WA and 5,173 persons in NT. Over the past year, annual net overseas migration had slowed to 20,857 persons in Qld, 15,383 persons in WA and 1,041 persons in NT.  </span></p>
<p><span>Conversely in NSW where mining is a smaller part of the overall economy, net overseas migration has actually increased from 63,661 persons in March 2013 to 67,272 persons in March 2015. Similarly in Vic net overseas migration has been much stronger over the past 2 years, falling slightly from 55,562 persons to 54,745 persons. Of course while most of the overseas migration is coming to NSW and Vic, most of that is flowing into Sydney and Melbourne fuelling more demand for housing and helping to explain why home value growth in those two cities has been so strong.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/09/25/Chart-5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/09/25/Chart-5.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>At a national level net interstate migration cancels itself out and does not add to population growth however, at a state level it can greatly impact on population growth. Over the past 12 months, only Vic (9,774 persons) and Qld (6,195 persons) have seen a positive inflow of residents from other states. In fact, net interstate migration into Vic is currently at its strongest level on record. Qld has recorded a slight rebound in net interstate migration however, it continues to hover around its lowest level on record. For the length of this data series (since 1981) NSW has consistently lost residents to other states and that remains the case losing 6,195 residents over the year. </p>
<p>The outflow of residents from NSW is hovering at around record low levels. WA has typically been a benefactor of interstate migration however, it lost a net -1,269 residents last year; its greatest loss since June 2003. Again we can see the impact of the slowing of the resources sector. In March 2013, net interstate migration was recorded at a higher 9,026 persons in Qld and 9,691 persons in WA. Conversely, net interstate migration at that time was recorded at -15,513 persons in NSW and 3,454 persons in Vic.</p>
<p>The trends in overseas and interstate migration in particular show that the population growth tide has turned away from the mining states and is now firmly focussed on NSW and Vic which have relatively little mining sector exposure. These states are also creating more employment opportunities and are subsequently attracting both people migrating from overseas and interstate. Higher population growth means more demand for housing, which is one of the drivers pushing dwelling values higher in Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p>The more up-to-date overseas arrivals and departures data from the ABS indicates that permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia have continued to trend lower since March 2015. This indicates that net overseas migration is expected to continue to trend lower over the coming quarters. It is also likely to result in more of these migrants wanting to move to NSW and Vic due to the fact that these are the states where more jobs are being created.</p>
<p>This is of course despite the fact that the two capital cities in these two states recording home value growth which is well in excess of growth elsewhere.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Population growth slumps to its slowest rate in nine years: Cameron Kusher

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<p>I’m struggling to find a time when the bureaucrats and politicians struggled as much as they presently are when trying to define what exactly is happening to the Sydney property markets – please note that I have used plural as against the popular and misrepresented singular definition.</p>
<p>Australia’s head cashier Joe Hockey is having an absolute shocker given he hails from a family that has a rich real estate heritage. For example, last week he stated that more houses were needed to fix the home affordability issue. “I like many others, if you have a home, if you’re already there with a mortgage; you wonder how your children are going to get into it.” Well Joe, for starters I would immediately slash the foreign buying policy where you allow 100% of all new housing developments to be sold offshore to foreign buyers.</p>
<p>Then one week later announced that he “totally understands” housing in Sydney and Melbourne is expensive and advised first home buyers to “get a good job that pays good money. ”If you go back 10 years first home buyers represented 10% of the overall market – today they are struggling to record a 5% market participation. The Sydney and Melbourne property markets are overwhelmingly being driven by property investors and foreign buyers.</p>
<p>The real truth of the matter is that the Coalition and ALP don’t care about the buyers, or where they come from for that matter, this is all about strengthening the economy where real estate is now doing all the heavy lifting. The crux of the matter is that the property sector now contributes more to Australian gross domestic product (GDP) than mining. The property sector is estimated to generate 11.5% of GDP, employs 1.1 million Australians and pays $72.1 billion in state, federal and local real estate taxes each year.</p>
<p>Then we have Australia’s head teller Glenn Stevens pointing at another rate cut due to a weak economy given that the Australian economy is now weaker than forecast two years ago. In 2013 the projection was that the economy would be growing at a rate of 2.5% to 4% although by mid-2015 it will be lucky to post a growth rate of 2.5%. Stevens also commented this week that he is concerned about Sydney’s booming house prices – you see he used the term house although houses in certain parts of Sydney are not doing that well when compared to apartments.</p>
<p>Our research division has been recording some interesting Mosman ‘house’ sales.</p>
<ul>
<li>Stanley Avenue Mosman sold in 2010 for $12.000 and resold in 2015 for $12.300</li>
<li>Coronation Avenue Mosman sold in 2012 for $4.200 and resold in 2015 for $4.125</li>
<li>Botanic Road Mosman sold in 2013 for $2.750 and resold in 2014 for $2.550</li>
<li>Parriwi Road (apartment) sold in 2010 for $1.050 and resold in 2014 for $1.010</li>
<li>Parriwi Road (apartment) sold in 2010 for $2.250 and resold in 2014 for $2.150</li>
<li>Bradleys Head Road sold in 2007 for $5.400 and resold in 2015 for $5.100</li>
<li>Raglan Street Mosman sold in 2006 for $4.500 and resold in 2015 for $4.750</li>
</ul>
<p>The problem is purely that house prices are bundled as against separating houses from apartments and investors from owner occupiers. Let’s not start on what part the foreign buyers play in this equation given nobody has really bothered to measure this participation rate but I would add that it’s huge and much, much higher than the federal government ever envisaged (when they do get around to looking).</p>
<p>Glenn Stevens was using the HSBC research that found Australian house prices had risen 24 per cent in the past three years, though the gains had been mostly confined to Sydney and Melbourne – so why then call this Australian house prices? Sydney had jumped 39 per cent and Melbourne prices were up 22 per cent bringing the average price growth for the rest of the country at 10 per cent.</p>
<p>The real problem Australia is facing is getting the economy stimulated and thus far all the monetary measures have been a dismal failure. Yet again, the problem is contained directly in Canberra and the refusal to implement reform so on that basis I can see where Glenn Stevens is coming from.</p>
<p>Cast your mind back to 2008 when Ken Henry presented the Henry Tax Review (the Rudd government held on to it until 2010) – we need to remember what Ken Henry said at the time “Ken Henry warns of looming taxation crisis”, and said that need to change is urgent. In 2014, he warned that the Abbott government urgently needs a tax and welfare package to head off an imminent budget crisis.</p>
<p>Well we have a budget crisis and no tax reform and as Ken Henry put it “there will be a day of reckoning.” One only has to ask a simple question – where would the Australian economy be today had the Henry Tax Review been implemented?</p>
<p>So what we have is politicians only interested in re – election so any thought of reform is immediately removed until we get hit with a major economic downturn. The Henry Tax Review was designed to drive the economy and therefore minimise the likelihood of another economic downturn as experienced with the Global Financial Crisis. Governments don’t pay payroll tax however if you asked businesses what they would do with the savings if it were to be abolished – you would see a much different Australian economy than we are seeing presently.</p>
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 85</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 61</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 55</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 66</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 38</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 41</p>
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 8</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 6</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 7</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 9</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 13</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 11</p>
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
<p>* Number of houses on the market this time last year – 5</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market last week – 5</p>
<p>• Number of houses on the market this week – 3</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 46</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market last week – 23</p>
<p>• Number of apartments on the market this week – 29</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em><span>ROBERT SIMEON</span> is a director of </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> </em><em>and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. <br>He has also been writing real estate blog </em><em><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> </em><em>since 2000. </em></p>
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