Macquarie York has appointed Roberts Co to as the Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) partner for its upcoming new Surfers Paradise apartment development, Sunset Residence.

Located at 50 Sunset Boulevard, Sunset Residences is a riverfront, design-driven tower set to elevate one of Surfers Paradise’s most rapidly transforming enclaves. The refined scheme, designed by Plus Studio, features 72 luxury residences, enhanced amenity, and improved connectivity to the Nerang &nbsp;River.&nbsp;

As ECI partner, Roberts Co is working closely with Macquarie York and the design team to optimise buildability, program, staging and procurement strategies ahead of construction commencement.&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Macquarie York Director, Roy Skaf, said Roberts Co’s early engagement will help ensure the landmark development realises its full potential.&nbsp;

“Sunset Residences is a signature project for Macquarie York, a chance to define a new level of riverfront living in Surfers Paradise," Skaf said.&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

<img alt="Roberts Co appointed Early Contractor Involvement partner for Macquarie York’s Sunset Residences on the Gold Coast" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3dd22a45-168b-4e00-b6d2-4e7310b02084" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/SunsetResidences_Interior.jpg?VersionId=NAWvGq7l6BFB4vvh6u0xXWWISboHTi6q" />

“Partnering with Roberts Co under an ECI arrangement gives us the confidence that design decisions, construction methodology and programming are being rigorously considered from day one. Their collaborative mindset and technical capability are exactly what a project of this quality demands.”&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Construction is expected to commence following completion of the ECI phase and final design resolution.

Sunset Residences is one of three projects Macquarie York has locally. They have Rana Palm Beach, 60 apartments on Twenty Third Avenue, and Azariah, just nine residences on the dress circle Jefferson Lane, also in Palm Beach.

Joel Robinson

Macquarie York appoints Roberts & Co for early works agreement at Sunset Residences

Few developers in South East Queensland have shaped the new development apartment market as profoundly, or as consistently, as Mosaic Property Group. In 2025, the business delivered another very strong year across Brisbane, the Gold Coast, and the Sunshine Coast, building on the foundations of nearly two decades of discipline, long-term thinking, and relentless refinement of its craft.

Their continued success is driven from the top. Founder and Managing Director Brook Monahan, very much credits the success to a workforce of “massive grafters”, and a culture where complacency simply doesn’t exist.

“In every part of our business, we’re constantly pushing to get better” Monahan told <a href="http://apartments.com.au">Apartments.com.au</a>. “We never rest on our laurels.”

The company’s growth continued its upward trajectory, with the developer completing six luxury projects in 2025, representing approximately $850 million in value and delivering 536 new luxury homes. Mosaic also sold over $1.4 billion worth a new luxury apartments at an average price point of $3.41 million in 2025.

Heading into 2026, they have a further five projects under construction and an immediate pipeline across Brisbane and the Gold Coast, representing just shy of $2 billion in value. I spoke with Brook about everything from the evolution of Mosaic’s business to the fundamentals driving the SEQ property market.

<hr />
<h2>A market defined by two forces</h2>

The fundamental drivers of SEQ’s housing dynamics in 2025 are straightforward: a generational transfer of wealth on a scale Australia has never seen, and migration numbers that continue to exceed expectations.

“An enormous amount of wealth will move through the next decade,” Monahan explains. “That wave isn’t going anywhere.” Simultaneously, “you can’t run migration at the numbers we’re seeing, while also having a generational shift of wealth from boomers, and not expect demand to remain strong. People move here, they bring money, they want to buy a home and create a future.”

While top-end product in some pockets has softened from the frenzy of 18 months ago, Monahan believes&nbsp; the wave will remain “pretty strong,” especially for developers with brand trust and a long-term track record.&nbsp;

“The $4 million to $10 million segment remains fairly robust, but buyers are much more educated now than they’ve ever been. They have access to information and they’re smart people. They’re generally not&nbsp; willing to trust a new entrant asking $15 million with no track record.”

This heightened consumer discernment, he notes, is reshaping how premium projects are evaluated by developers.

<hr />
<h2>The problem behind the crisis</h2>

Despite strong demand, SEQ’s housing market remains severely undersupplied. Brisbane needs around 12,000 new homes per year, yet delivered only 4,000 last year. The Gold Coast requires around 6500 but delivered less than half of that. The backlog is massive.

“We’re probably 54,000 homes short in the next five years in Brisbane alone,” Monahan estimates. “Maybe 100,000 across the whole of Queensland.”

The core issue however isn’t planning.&nbsp;

“The planning environment is actually super supportive right now,” he says. “Approvals aren’t the problem. It’s turning approvals into real supply.”

The gap between development approvals and project starts has widened significantly as construction costs escalate, contractors disappear from the market, and inexperienced developers try, and fail, to bring projects to life.

“A development application (DA) is only part of the equation, it means little without the ability to deliver,” he explains. “Many applicants underestimate the complexity involved. It’s not just about securing a site; you need the right formula and all the right ingredients to make it work. Without that, the end result will fall short of expectations and increase the risk of project failure.

The result is market distortion: sites tied up by entrants who lack experience, capital certainty, construction understanding, or a realistic feasibility model. “It’s not good for the industry,” he says. “You get more and more mooted supply but very little real delivery.”

<hr />
<h2>Construction realities and the coming resource crunch</h2>

Beyond development capability, SEQ faces macroeconomic pressures. Over $7 billion must be delivered by late 2031 just for Olympics-related obligations. Add $18 billion in hospital and health infrastructure, and the region faces a “resource drain” Monahan believes will reshape delivery timelines and construction pricing for years.

“It will ultimately be great for SEQ for the next 20 years,” he says. “But it puts enormous pressure on an already chronically undersupplied housing market.”

This pressure will inevitably influence pricing. Double-digit growth cannot continue indefinitely, but Monahan sees no path to meaningfully lower construction costs. “It’s impossible to meet demand at a cheaper price point given labour capability and resource competition,” he says.

“Those who can afford it will keep paying more and the rest are fighting to get a foothold. That’s why the market keeps creeping upward.”

<hr />
<h2>Mosaic’s disciplined blueprint: Only A-Grade, iconic, irreplicable</h2>

With a long track record of delivery and in-house construction expertise, Mosaic works backwards from the cost of delivery to determine the right price for a site—a disciplined acquisition model they’ve adhered to from day one.

&nbsp;“We’re never out of the market,” Monahan says. “But we’re extremely disciplined. We don’t buy B+ sites. We won’t buy run-of-the-mill locations. Ever. That’s not our brand and it’s also not economically viable for us in most instances.”

Mosaic’s nine current developments illustrate this discipline:

<ul>
	<li aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lily-by-mosaic-4-rosewood-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">Lily</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/marella-146-surf-parade-broadbeach-qld-4218">Marella</a>, Broadbeach: Two 30-storey buildings with permanently protected views over parkland, beach and coastline 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/isabel-by-mosaic-96-the-esplanade-burleigh-heads-qld-4220">Isabel</a> and, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/josephine-by-mosaic-166-the-esplanade-burleigh-heads-qld-4220">Jospehine</a>, Burleigh Heads – all “masterpiece” sites on the Esplanade with enduring view corridors of beach, water and coastline in the heart of Burleigh 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/sophia-by-mosaic-1357-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Sophia</a>, Palm Beach- directly on the dunes of the most highly sought after stretch of northern Palm Beach beachfront real estate 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/madeline-by-mosaic-22-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">Madeline</a>, Broadbeach – “180 degrees beach, water and coastline views, great walk score” 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-bedford-by-mosaic-16-30-prospect-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Bedford</a>, Kangaroo Point – a site Mosaic first identified in 2016. Amazing walk score, views and inner city connectivity 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-carter-by-mosaic-77-linton-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Carter</a>, Kangaroo Point – in between the Gabba and the Kangaroo Point peninsula with amazing walk score and uninterrupted and expansive northern city and river views 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li aria-level="1">South Brisbane (launching 2026) – core inner-city Brisbane river waterfront site on the northern end of the peninsula with amazing river connection and permanent river and city views, amazing walk score</li>
</ul>

“Nothing we buy is guesswork,” Monahan says. “It’s always an iconic suburb where people genuinely want to live, with strong connections to water, lifestyle, amenity, or permanent view corridors.”

“Mosaic’s two most recent Brisbane acquisitions were several years in the making. The Bedford, launched on the prestigious Kangaroo Point peninsula and achieving 90 per cent sales within months was a site they identified back in 2016. The second, which is the yet to be released at 91 Montague Road in South Brisbane, has been on Mosaic’s radar since 2017.&nbsp;

Arguably one of Brisbane’s last great inner city riverfront sites, it sits within the city’s most dynamic cultural hub, offering unrivalled connectivity, lifestyle, and amenity, and standing as a landmark opportunity to define the next era of riverfront living.

“We know exactly what is and isn’t a Mosaic project. Strategic site selection is the critical foundation of everything we do. We’re always assessing opportunities, but based on our two most recent Brisbane acquisitions, it’s entirely possible that the sites we’re looking at today won’t transact for several years. That discipline is what ensures every project meets our exacting standards.”

<hr />
<h2>The Mosaic engine: Consistency, capability, and relentless execution</h2>

What separates Mosaic in a crowded field is not the ability to attract capital or buy a site, but the ability to deliver highly complex high end buildings, whether that is 37 storeys or 18 storeys, repeatedly and consistently.

“These buildings are inherently complex to deliver well,” Monahan says. “It takes a long time to know exactly what the market wants, how to deliver it, how to secure the right contractors and consultants, and how to align the product with what the market is actually willing to pay and can afford.”

With so many contractors exiting the market in recent years, genuine delivery capability has become increasingly rare. Monahan welcomes credible new entrants but cautions that underestimating the complexity of luxury development can lead to poor outcomes.&nbsp;

“It’s easy to assume high-end projects equal high returns, but without the right experience, track record, and capability, it’s a tough road. Attracting capital is one thing—delivering on expectations is another, and when that doesn’t happen, it impacts the entire market.’”

<hr />
<h2>Looking to 2026: A pipeline built on patience and precision</h2>

As 2025 draws to a close, Mosaic stands at the strongest point in its history. Since 2012 alone, the company has completed more than $2 billion in projects and is set to deliver another $2 billion worth of developments, hundreds of luxury apartments, all bearing Mosaic’s hallmark of impeccable delivery.&nbsp;

Next to launch are two standout projects: Josephine, an exclusive collection of just 30 half- and full-floor ultra-luxury residences coming soon to the Burleigh Heads beachfront, and a landmark tower on Montague Road in South Brisbane, comprising 204 apartments in the heart of the city’s cultural hub on the banks of the Brisbane river.

“We never arrive. There’s no finish line for us,” said Monahan. “Our focus is on continuing to evolve in the luxury space, creating incredible, design- and lifestyle-led properties that people love living in and that stand the test of time.” 
&nbsp;

What’s ahead for South East Queensland’s next development wave: Five minutes with Mosaic’s Brook Monahan

Developer Third.i has topped out its luxury Potts Point apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/muse-potts-point-30-34-brougham-street-potts-point-nsw-2011">Muse</a>.

Under construction by Dilcara and expected to complete in mid-2026, Muse comprises just 13 apartments designed by acclaimed architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/wmk-architecture">WMK Architecture</a> and Mathieson. The building’s design celebrates Potts Point’s heritage character while introducing refined modern elements like advanced building technology and private balconies and terraces that offer views of the Sydney city skyline.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112613 project_image_fid=231687]

Luke Berry, Director &amp; Co-Founder at Thirdi Group, said Muse is a celebration of Potts Point’s unique character and charm.

"With only 13 residences, we’ve created something truly special for those who appreciate exclusivity and design excellence," Berry says"

"The views, the location, and the lifestyle make Muse a rare opportunity in Sydney’s property market. We’re thrilled to see the project take shape and look forward to welcoming our residents in mid-2026.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112613 project_image_fid=231686]

Only a limited number of residences remain at Muse.

Third.i recently launched The Rushcutters nearby, also just 13 large-scale apartments. The two-bedroom apartments were all snapped up in double-quick time. The three-bedroom apartments are priced from just under $5 million.

Potts Point has always been popular for apartment living, but given the lack of suitable development sites in the affluent suburb, new apartment developments have been few and far between.

Early next year Ceerose will launch <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/belgravia-potts-point-117-victoria-street-potts-point-nsw-2011">Belgravia</a>, a mix of two- and three-bedroom apartments on Victoria Street.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112613]

Staff Writer

Third.i tops out Muse, Potts Point apartments

Buyer interest in Capital Corporation’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-residences-at-wahroonga-estate-169-fox-valley-road-wahroonga-nsw-2076">The Residences at Wahroonga Estate</a> has been gaining momentum following the recent groundbreaking and the commencement of construction.

Enquiry data has pointed to a clear theme: larger apartments are leading demand, particularly among downsizers who want to remain on Sydney’s Upper North Shore.

Since June, three-bedroom layouts have attracted the highest level of enquiry. The three-bed, two-bath, two-car apartments priced from $1.69 million generated the most enquiries, the highest of any floorplan, followed by the larger three-bed garden residences which are priced at $2.25 million.

It's been a prevailing theme for Capital Corporation, who, in the early stages of marketing, reacted to buyer feedback to create more three-bedroom apartments.

The numbers echo what <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/capital-corporation">Capital Corporation</a> has observed since the project’s early stages. Buyers want generous internal space, established amenity and the ability to age in place without leaving the area.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135247 project_image_fid=284378]

Capital Corporation Managing Director Jim Hunter said this was a major factor in the estate’s momentum, noting that “the combination of premium design, convenience and direct access to Sydney’s leading private hospital has proven to be a major drawcard”.

That connection to health and wellbeing has proven especially influential for older owner-occupiers. Research commissioned by Capital Corporation found that one in three Australians downsizing do so for health-related reasons, with a third specifically seeking proximity to medical facilities.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135247 project_image_fid=262185]

The buyer profile emerging at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/wahroonga-nsw-2076">Wahroonga</a> Estate reflects this shift. Local residents Peter and Corinne Collins, both in their mid-70s, are among those who chose to downsize within the suburb after decades in their family home. They secured a top-floor three-bedroom apartment after queuing on launch day in March, citing the bushland setting, walkability, and peace of mind of being close to medical services as key reasons for their purchase.

“Being able to walk everywhere, including to the hospital if we need to, really gave us peace of mind,” Corinne told Apartments.com.au.

Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/from-family-home-to-bushland-retreat-why-peter-and-corinne-chose-the-residences-at-wahroonga-estate">From family home to bushland retreat: Why Peter and Corinne chose The Residences at Wahroonga Estate</a>

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135247 project_image_fid=3629]

Architecture firm <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/group-gsa">Group GSA</a>&nbsp;are behind the design at The Residences at Wahroonga Estate. There are 128 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, complete with interiors&nbsp;by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/coco-republic-interior-design">Coco Republic</a>. Floor-to-ceiling glass maximises views of the bushland ridgeline, while on-site amenity includes a residents’ lounge, pet-friendly Green Spine, BBQ pavilion and direct access to Coups Creek bushland and walking tracks.

Gold Star iCIRT-rated builder&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/dasco-australia">DASCO</a>&nbsp;was&nbsp;appointed earlier this year to deliver The Residences at Wahroonga Estate. They are expected to complete the building in late 2027, with residents to move in shortly after.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135247]

Downsizer demand continues to shape The Residences at Wahroonga Estate

With Brisbane’s housing market soaring and home ownership becoming increasingly out of reach for many buyers, townhouses have emerged as the new urban dream, offering private, low-maintenance retreats complete with pools, parklands, and lifestyle amenities.

As Brisbane faces a growing shortage of quality new residential offerings, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/honeycombes-property-group">Honeycombes Property Group</a> has released to the market Songbird Terraces, a boutique development of just 34 terrace homes in the heart of the leafy residential enclave of Oxley.

Offering a more affordable option to the white picket fence house, buyers can purchase a brand new architecturally designed three bedroom terrace home overlooking park and bushland with a communal heated pool, BBQ terrace, private parklands and an on-site café, while being just minutes from <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/oxley-qld-4075">Oxley</a>’s village centre, train station, and a range of schools and amenities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149443 project_image_fid=5241]

Each of the spacious three bedroom plus multi purpose room or four bedroom townhomes feature premium finishes, landscaped courtyards, designer kitchens, two-car accommodation, and optional upgrades for tailored living.

Honeycombes Property Group Managing Director Peter Honeycombe said with completion anticipated in early 2027, this was an incredibly rare chance to buy a fixed-price, brand-new, off the plan home in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held and liveable suburbs, without the stress of auctions and chaotic open homes.

“With prices starting from $1.195 million, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/songbird-terraces-oxley-10-honeyeater-circuit-oxley-qld-4075">Songbird Terraces</a> are designed for owner occupiers seeking space, style and lifestyle, without the maintenance,” Honeycombe said.

“Surrounded by natural bushland and close to manicured parks, walking trails, boutique shops, cafes, cinemas and golf courses, Oxley continues to stand out as one of Brisbane’s most liveable suburbs.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149443 project_image_fid=355541]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/colliers">Colliers</a> Residential Director Andrew Scriven said with a limited number of homes available, Songbird Terraces was attracting strong interest from families, upsizers, first home buyers and downsizers looking for quality, location and long-term value.&nbsp;

“Demand is high, supply is low, and the market is crying out for high-quality homes in established well connected areas like Oxley,” Scriven said.

“What was once seen as a compromise between a house and an apartment a townhouse has now become a lifestyle choice, more and more homebuyers are shifting their focus from traditional detached houses to modern, low-maintenance townhouses that offer greater value and convenience.

“As the city’s population grows and urban sprawl becomes less sustainable, Brisbane’s townhouse market is set to expand even further.&nbsp;

“There’s definitely a panic from buyers who’ve been pushed out of the house market but still want to stay in well-connected suburbs with great schools and amenities, they are worried they will miss out as property prices continually rise.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149443 project_image_fid=5238]

After eight years of calling Australia home, Agnes Skoraczewska and Matt Biskupski decided it was finally time to take the next step and purchase a home of their own. With property prices continuing to climb, the couple didn’t want to wait any longer and secured a three-bedroom plus multi purpose room townhouse at Songbird Terraces, locking in a fixed price ahead of their move in 2027.

“The truth is, we didn’t want to wait any longer,” Biskupski said. “Seeing what was happening in the market, we realised now was the right time to buy. It gives us peace of mind knowing we no longer have to worry about renting.”

When they discovered Songbird Terraces, the decision came easily.

“The area is lovely and quiet, yet still so close to the city, it’s the perfect balance for work and life,” Skoraczewska said. “It’s a place where we can recharge our batteries while staying connected to everything we need.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149443 project_image_fid=5237]

For Agnes and Matt, buying off the plan offered the ideal solution, the confidence of securing their dream home at today’s prices, and the excitement of planning for the future in a community that perfectly fits their lifestyle.

As the final residential precinct within the Songbird Oxley master plan, Songbird Terraces will continue to breathe new life into the area and help create a suburb destination rich in lifestyle amenity.

Colliers Residential Director Lily O'Connell said Songbird is positioned to take full advantage of elevated north and east-facing parkland views, the homes feature low-maintenance design and high energy efficiency to reduce ongoing costs while enhancing everyday comfort.

“And with an array of layouts, catering to a diverse range of lifestyles this is an offering for all,” O'Connell said.

“This is the final release in a masterplanned community that’s become one of Oxley’s most desirable addresses, offering a last chance to enter this community where opportunities are few and far between.”

The homes will be delivered by Clearcon Builders, specialists in premium townhome construction. They will commence construction before Christmas, and is aiming to complete the development in early 2027.

<h2>Songbird Terraces Snapshot</h2>

<ul>
	<li>34 architecturally designed 3 bedroom + multi-purpose room terrace homes.</li>
	<li>An array of layouts, catering to a diverse range of lifestyles.</li>
	<li>Perfectly positioned to take advantage of north and east views over park and bushland.</li>
	<li>A multi-purpose room, which can serve as a second living area, teen retreat, study or fourth bedroom.</li>
	<li>Designer kitchens featuring high quality engineered stone benchtops and European appliances.</li>
	<li>Spacious outdoor living areas and landscaped courtyards perfect for alfresco dining.</li>
	<li>Generous internal and external spaces, designed to take advantage of views overlooking park and bushland.</li>
	<li>Low maintenance, energy efficient &amp; two car accommodation.</li>
	<li>Access to a heated resort-style pool, outdoor entertaining terrace and beautifully landscaped gardens and park.</li>
</ul>

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=149443]

Songbird Terraces offer 34 architect-designed townhomes in private enclave, surrounded by bushland, parks and resort style amenity

Townhouse living, Brisbane’s new affordable urban dream?

Growth

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<div>The ABS will soon release its latest dwelling prices data for Q2 2015, which is always an interesting series to analyse.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Market forecasts are calling for a +2.4% gain on a national basis, with Sydney driving most of the gains.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Westpac is looking for an even more bullish +4% which would take annual price growth all the way up to +9.1%.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The data series also provides some interesting data on dwelling supply. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of course, the ABS series lags somewhat, but it is worth noting that CoreLogic RP Data's Daily Home Value Index is no longer a sea of green, with prices now down for the quarter and for the year in both Adelaide and Perth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/09/22/RPD.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/22/RPD.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Home values are also declining in Darwin.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
</div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Dwelling prices update due: Pete Wargent

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Cities are ever changing environments that are continuously evolving and they reflect the varied and always developing needs of the population.
The complexity of the population is naturally reflected in the make-up of the housing market and while fashions change, our underlying housing preferences appear to be somewhat more rigid than might be expected. And so the question will always be – are we matching demand and how we market to this audience? 
It appears that at times we have a disconnection between where we live and where we would like to live. Work, family, finances and lifestyle balance all play their part, alongside our national, still very dominant desire to have our own homes. This area is still driven by emotion and aspiration. There’s a lot of emotion in almost all parts of the housing market and the desire for homeownership is also closely tied to a feeling of achievement, personal growth and self-worth.
In almost any casual conversation we are often asked, where do you live? And where do you work and what do you do? Where we live in particular is very much seen as part of who we are, and so the character of the housing market is a constant source of fascination.
A Large House Near The City
In research published by the Grattan Institute, a large house near the city was seen as the most desirable goal for many people, but the actual structure of our housing market is somewhat different.
Homeownership is falling, and the numbers of people renting is on the rise. Both trends were evident. When measured in the last census in 2011, homeowners (either owned or with a mortgage) was around 67%, and rental accommodation sat around 29.6%, but the falling trend among homeowners has been constant and was closer to 75% in the 1960’s.
At the same time rents and mortgage repayments have been on the constant increase, and one particular measure remains on an upward trend and that’s the number of households where rent or mortgage payments are taking more than 30% of incomes, with rents at 10.4% and mortgage loan repayments at 9.9%. It’s a trend that the 2016 census is bound to see continue as house prices have increased over recent years.
There’s also a link between the size of families and their incomes and the ability to buy a home. Couples and sole parents with children account for 60.5% of households with both parents being employed either full or part-time making up 25.4%, with only 15.7% being households with just one parent working full-time, and even less with one parent in part-time employment at just 5.4% supporting the household.
Most of Us Still Live in Detached Homes
Where we live and the impact that has on household size and the importance of location also shows some related trends. As the figures above might help reinforce, families are more concerned about the size of a home.
The split is currently 75.6% living in detached homes, but that figure is gradually falling, 9.9% then live in semi-detached and 13.6% in apartments, with both are on an upward trend. The fall in the numbers of people living in detached homes is shown by the fact that in 1976 the figure stood at 78%, and while the decline is not huge, it’s now a constant trend and may well be more marked with recent trends towards the popularity of apartments.
What is somewhat a surprise is that evidence points to the popularity and demand for medium density housing, in reality the supply of semi-detached homes and townhouses has been falling way behind demand. Medium density sits somewhere between high-rise apartment living and the larger more traditional detached home and this would help explain, not surprisingly why these homes are so popular. And when it comes to size, we see that 3-bedroom and 4-bedroom homes together account for 73.9% of housing stock, with the demand for 4-bedroom homes on the increase.
When Location Is Key
While for families home size and the number of bedrooms are the most important factors, location is much more important as we get older and it’s also the same for singles.
While families are concerned about house size, as we get older we look for closer connections to work, being closer to family and facilities like transport, and the same goes for singles as they look for wider community connections. For these groups a central or CBD location and all that it entails is driving demand and pushing prices as sites are absorbed.
Then we also find that across all groups affordability always comes into the picture. This will then influence size, condition, access to transport and the key suburbs people are most attracted to. Our housing preferences are well-established but changing.
However as is clearly demonstrated by some of the shortages being experienced in Sydney, meeting all aspects of household demand isn’t easy. There are many layers that add time, cost and complexity to meeting demand. Finding suitable sites in very popular areas, the time to deliver the finished projects, planning delays and the costs involved will explain why in some markets demand is not being met.
Demand is being seen from the inner-city to major new growth regions on the city fringe. Then some housing preferences, like the demand for more mid-range medium density housing may be falling short. There’s a fine balance between location, cost and size that all buyers have to navigate when making a choice of where to live, and prices are reflecting the key areas of demand.
Peter Chittenden is managing director for residential of Colliers International. He can be contacted <a href="https://www.projectagenda.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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pchittenden-eLqUUC8TWW

Where we like to live: Peter Chittenden

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Brisbane’s market has been busy recently, without delivering strong capital growth. It has in common with most of the nation’s capital cities a reluctance to join Sydney in a property boom.
It’s overdue for a period of growth because it’s been an under-achiever in the recent past. It ranks fifth among the eight state and territory capitals for long-term capital growth, well behind (in order of ranking) Perth, Melbourne, Darwin and Sydney.
Based on Domain figures for the average annual growth in median prices over the past 10 years, the top 20 suburbs in Perth all have growth rates between 9% and 10% per year. Brisbane’s top 20, bar one, are between 6% and 7% per year.
Brisbane averages have been dragged down by poor performance in the past four years. City markets took time to recover from the floods of early 2011. In the years since, Perth, Darwin, Sydney and Melbourne have all had periods of price growth ranging from solid to strong, but Brisbane has yet to join the growth party.
Parts of the Brisbane metropolitan area have out-performed, but the average citywide performance has been lukewarm.
Looking at the figures describing growth rates for the past 10 years, Brisbane currently has only one suburb with a growth rate above 7% (Hendra, which averages 7.6%). All of the other Top 20 suburbs have long-term growth rates between 6.0% and 6.9%. 
The leading precinct is Brisbane Northside – the northern suburbs of the Brisbane City Council area – which provides the top four suburbs and six of the top 10. This area is prominent in terms of capital growth rates because it led the upturn in sales activity in the city market in 2013 and 2014 – and many suburbs have recorded double-digit annual price growth in the past 12 months, lifting their long-term growth rates.
The Brisbane Northside suburbs, and indeed most of the suburbs on the Top 20 list, represent Brisbane’s middle market. The 12 most expensive suburbs in the Brisbane region have median house prices in the range from $900,000 to $1.2 million. The middle market is the next tier below that – and that’s the market that leads on capital growth rates.
All but one of the Top 20 have median prices below $900,000. Fourteen of the Top 20 have median prices in the $600,000s and $700,000s. There are currently no bottom-end suburbs on the list – only two have medians below $600,000. 
I expect a different result a year from now, as many of the cheaper markets are now rising across the Brisbane metropolitan area and are likely to experience good price growth, lifting their long-term growth rates.
Brisbane’s most expensive suburbs have been mediocre performers – only one of the 12 priciest suburbs features on the Top 20 list for capital growth rates. Only four of them have capital growth rates above 6%.
The worst performing precinct has been the Moreton Bay Regional Council area in the far north of the Greater Brisbane area. Seven of the Bottom 20 suburbs are located there. This may change in the near future, as this precinct is one of the areas with elevated sales activity, as the momentum ripples out from the neighbouring Brisbane Northside precinct.
BRISBANE TOP 20 – ANNUAL GROWTH % OVER 10 YEARS
<table style="height: 293px; width: 392px;" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
No.
</td>
<td valign="middle">
SUBURB
</td>
<td valign="middle">
MUNICIPALITY
</td>
<td valign="middle">
  MEDIAN
</td>
<td valign="middle">
GROWTH RATE %
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
1
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Hendra
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-North
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $815,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    7.6
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
2
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Newmarket
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-North
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $740,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.9
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
3
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Gordon Park
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-North
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $700,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.8
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
4
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Northgate
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-North
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $610,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.7
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
5
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Paddington
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-Inner
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $865,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.6
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
6
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Cannon Hill
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-East
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $705,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
7
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Lutwyche
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-North
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $697,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
8
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Doolandella
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-South
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $460,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.3
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
9
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Gaythorne
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-North
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $618,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.3
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
10
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Bardon
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-West
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $840,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.2
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
11
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Fig Tree Pocket
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-West
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $934,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.2
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
12
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Holland Park
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-South
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $619,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.2
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
13
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Woolloongabba
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-Inner
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $645,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.2
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
14
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Camp Hill
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-South
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $748,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.1
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
15
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Fairfield
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-South
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $678,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.1
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
16
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Upper Mt Gravatt
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-South
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $550,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.1
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
17
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Albion
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-North
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $687,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.0
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
18
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Eight Mile Plains
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-South
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $619,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.0
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
19
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Norman Park
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-East
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $760,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.0
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="middle">
20
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Seven Hills
</td>
<td valign="middle">
Brisbane-East
</td>
<td valign="middle">
 $618,000
</td>
<td valign="middle">
    6.0
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
 
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a> 
Terry was recently joined by Property Observer editor at large Jonathan Chancellor for a webinar on why research is the key to successful property investing in 2015. You can download slides and audio from the webinar here.
 
 
 
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Top 20 Brisbane growth suburbs of the decade: Terry Ryder

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Amid media’s multiple orgasms over Sydney price rises, the factor overlooked is how poorly the city had performed on capital growth in the decade before its belated resurgence. 
Hotspotting’s latest survey for the Capital Growth Superstars report shows that Sydney still ranks only fourth among the capital cities for long-term capital growth. Perth is No.1, marginally ahead of Melbourne and Darwin.
Perth’s market peaked in the middle of 2013 and been gradually subsiding since then – but, in terms of long-term growth rates, it still has more suburbs with strong growth averages than any other capital city. All but one of the Perth Top 20 average above 9% per year (which means property doubles in value every eight years).
The recent Sydney boom has elevated the city from 6th late in 2014 to 4th in mid-2015 – an improvement, but still mediocre for long-term growth. Fourteen of Sydney’s Top 20 suburbs have long-term growth rates below 8% - not nearly good enough to make the Top 20 lists for Melbourne, Perth or Darwin.
No suburb in the vast Sydney metropolitan area has a double-digit growth rate. The best is Pemulwuy (median price $720,000) in the city’s western suburbs, with a long-term growth rate of 9.5% per year. Most of the suburbs in the Top 20 have growth rates in the 7.0% to 8.0% range.
At first glance, it appears that the Top End suburbs dominate Sydney’s Top 20 list, as 19 of the Top 20 (all except Pemulwuy) have median prices above $1 million. But, in fact, these are mostly suburbs a tier below the Top End.  
In Sydney, the 15 most expensive suburbs all have median house prices above $2 million. None of the 20 most expensive suburbs (all with median prices above $1.9 million) make the Sydney’s Top 20 list for long-term capital growth. Most of them have growth rates below 5% per year.
Sydney’s Top 20 is dominated by 15 suburbs in the $1 million to $1.5 million range, which is Sydney’s second tier market.
This factor is common to most of the capital cities. Most of the Top 20 lists, including those in Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra, are dominated by the middle market. The exception is Perth, where the cheaper end of the market fills most of the spaces on the Top 20 list. 
In Sydney, the outstanding precinct is the Ryde LGA on the lower North Shore, which has four suburbs in the city Top 20. Ryde is the only municipality with more than two suburbs in the Top 20. Its four top suburbs are Eastwood, Ryde, Denistone East and West Ryde, all with median prices in the $1.1 million to $1.3 million range.
The prestige end of the market, suburbs with median house prices above $2 million, continues to deliver poor capital growth rates. Indeed, three of the most expensive suburbs of Sydney are included in the Bottom 20 list of suburbs with the worst growth rates in the city.
Vaucluse (median $3.4 million), Palm Beach ($2.6 million) and Clontarf ($2.5 million) all have growth rates of 2.1% per year or less. Clontarf’s 1.3% grow rate means it would take 55 years for property to double in value (compared to eight years for Pemulwuy).
There are four other million-dollar suburbs on the Bottom 20 list.
The worst precinct in Sydney for capital growth is the Sutherland LGA in the south of the metropolitan area – it has four suburbs (Burraneer, Bundeena, Lilli Pilli and Illawong) on the Bottom 20 list, all with growth rates below 2% per year.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a> 
Terry was recently joined by Property Observer editor at large Jonathan Chancellor for a webinar on why research is the key to successful property investing in 2015. You can download slides and audio from the webinar here.
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Sydney ranks fourth for long-term capital growth: Terry Ryder

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The most common “common denominator” of boom property markets over time is an elevated level of spending on infrastructure.
It’s not coincidence that Sydney has been having its strongest market in 12 years at a time when the level of infrastructure development is the highest it’s been in 12 years. It’s not the only reason but it has played a significant role.
And as Sydney starts to shows signs of beginning the fade-out that’s inevitable after three years of heightened activity and prices, investors seeking long-term growth are well advised to follow the infrastructure trail.
Real estate that lies in the path of progress usually grows at superior rates.
The property cycle in Sydney has reached the point where investors need to be extremely careful with their locational choices.
The Sydney market has been percolating for three years and most locations have recorded significant price growth, including double-digit annual increases in median prices across much of the Sydney metropolitan area.
This scenario has meant that owning real estate almost anywhere in Greater Sydney has delivered good capital growth.
But it will not be so simple moving forward. There are already indications that the Sydney boom is beginning to fade. It was inevitable that this would occur and it was most likely to happen in the third year of heightened market activity – i.e. during 2015.
Our latest analysis of sales data shows that there are fewer growth suburbs (in terms of sales activity) than before, which is an indicator that the boom may be fading. I do not expect any dramatic decline, but the high level of price growth of the past 2-3 years is unlikely to continue.
I note that other research sources, including BIS Shrapnel and National Australia Bank, have also forecast that the rate of price growth in Sydney will decrease over the next year or so.
Investors now need to be selective to achieve capital growth – and the best strategy is to focus on locations where spending on new infrastructure, particularly transport infrastructure, will be a catalyst to real estate demand. 
Currently, the outer reaches of the metropolitan area are the market leaders in Sydney. Penrith, Camden and Campbelltown – as far as you can get from the CBD and still be in Greater Sydney – have the most upwardly-mobile markets.
Some Top End suburbs remain vibrant. But, increasingly, we are seeing the biggest growth in the middle and bottom tiers of the market. This continues a process which evolved throughout 2014, with the millionaire suburbs a little less prominent and the more affordable areas rising. 
Western areas are prominent, including the far south-west of the Sydney metropolitan area where both the Campbelltown and Camden LGAs still have numerous growth suburbs, the Liverpool LGA and the Rouse Hill precinct in the far north-west. 
These are all areas which will benefit from infrastructure spending, including projects currently under construction and those in the planning stages.
In some instances, the level of new transport infrastructure is quite exceptional. Take the north-west precinct centred on the emerging growth region of Rouse Hill. This area is an obvious and direct beneficiary of the $9 billion North west Rail Link, now under construction. 
Currently the main transport link to this precinct is the M2 motorway, where a significant upgrade was recently completed.
Other accessibility improvements are being made with the upgrade of Schofields Road,linking Windsor Road at Rouse Hill to Railway Terrace at Schofields. The two-lane rural road will be transformed into a major east-west connection between Windsor Road and Richmond Road over three stages costing about $200 million.
Stage one opened to traffic in July 2014. Stage two should be complete in early 2017 while stage three remains in the planning phase.
Richmond Road has also undergone a recent $46 million upgrade.
The north-west region of Sydney will benefit from the M9 Orbital road, which will connect it to the far south-west of Sydney. The M9 will link Camden in the south-west to Penrith in the west and continue north to Windsor, a near neighbour of Rouse Hill.
The link is in the early stages of planning, with $4.6 million set aside in the FY2015 State Budget for a feasibility study on the construction of the M9.
The north-west region will also benefit from the NorthConnex motorway, the $2.6 billion project designed to address the missing link between the southern end of the M1 Pacific Motorway at Wahroonga and the M2 motorway at its Pennant Hills Road interchange.
Spanning 9km, NorthConnex will be the longest road tunnel project in Australia. Construction of the tunnel is expected to be completed in 2019. It was announced in February 2015 that Lend Lease had won the contract to construct the motorway.
These infrastructure projects are part of the mix that will make the north-west a growth market long-term, beyond the current boom.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a> 
Terry was recently joined by Property Observer editor at large Jonathan Chancellor for a webinar on why research is the key to successful property investing in 2015. You can download slides and audio from the webinar here.
 
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Property investors must follow the infrastructure trail: Terry Ryder 

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Combined capital city rents remained unchanged from October to November however falls were recorded in Perth, Hobart and Darwin, according to CoreLogic RP Data.
Rental rates in increased by a record low of 0.3% over the past 12 months.
New housing supply across capital cities, combined with slowing population growth, low mortgage rates and an increase property investors are all driving the slow down in rental growth. 
Record rental rises have been felt in Sydney and Melbourne however at a slower pace of growth compared to 12 months ago.
<a href="/images/2015/12/7/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-07%20at%202.55.23%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/7/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-07%20at%202.55.23%20PM.png" alt="" width="724" height="366">
CoreLogic RP Data state rental demands for apartments is holding up better than rental demand for houses, with house rents increasing by 0.1% while units have recorded a much greater 1.7% annual rise.
<a href="/images/2015/12/7/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-07%20at%202.57.58%20PM.png" target="_blank" style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/7/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-07%20at%202.57.58%20PM.png" alt="">
 
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mick.cee-iDmgDDAmu8

Weekly rents unchanged in November 2015: CoreLogic RP Data

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GUEST OBSERVER
Queensland has shown the greatest improvement over the September quarter, with the annual pace of growth rising nearer to its trend rate.
A dominant feature of the ANZ Stateometer continues to be the strength of New South Wales activity. The largest state is trumping all other states and territories, with the NSW index at a record level.
</div>
<div class="column">
 The index for Victoria edged higher over the September quarter, signalling a steady rise in demand. The outlook in Tasmania remains positive with the annual pace of economic activity at its trend rate.
</div>
<div class="column">
 The ANZ Stateometer shows that economic activity in the aforementioned states has performed well over 2015; a reflection of solid growth in services sector activity. This is also being reflected in labour force outcomes.
</div>
<div class="column">
 The Northern Territory also continues to perform better, supported by strong construction activity in the resource sector.
</div>
<div class="column">
 But in Western Australian economic activity remains below trend and growth in South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory has slipped further.
</div>
<div class="column">
 The September quarter results provide a timely indication of the direction of state final demand in each state and territory. The official data for the September quarter will be released in around two weeks’ time.
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IS NSW ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AT ITS PEAK? 
Monthly economic data continue to be strongly positive for New South Wales. The NSW index, which measures annual growth in economic activity, increased to its highest level over the September quarter. 
The positive tone in the monthly data is broad-based with indicators for household consumption, business activity and the labour market all positive. The continuing strength in the index is a strong indication of solid demand in NSW in the September quarter, and should be reflected in the national accounts to be released in early December (Figure 2). 
The upswing in residential construction and the sharp depreciation in the currency are supporting economic activity in NSW, particularly Sydney. While we expect an extended period of above trend growth, indications are that NSW may be approaching the top of the business cycle (Figure 3). How the NSW economy adjusts to a cooling housing market and eventual slow-down in residential construction will be key to future growth momentum. 
<a href="/images/2015/11/18/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-18%20at%209.51.03%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/11/18/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-18%20at%209.51.03%20AM.png" alt="" width="664" height="471">
 
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ECONOMIC REBALANCING BROADENS TO QUEENSLAND 
The rebalancing of the national economy continues with a solid pick-up in the annual pace of economic activity in Queensland (Figures 1 and 4). As the third largest economy in Australia, signs of economic momentum are encouraging, and lend further support to signs that the non-mining sectors are picking up. 
The ANZ Stateometer is an alternative measure of the performance of the state and territory economies, and can be used in conjunction with more traditional measures. The latter have the tendency to be strongly influenced by temporary shocks in parts of the economy and this is particularly the case for Queensland (Figure 5), where State Final Demand and the Queensland index have diverged. 
The decline in mining investment in Queensland has led to a sharp contraction in state final demand. While significant, this is perhaps not representative of activity in the broader economy, which has picked up noticeably over the year. The state’s monthly data flow picked up across household, business and labour force indicators. 
<a href="/images/2015/11/18/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-18%20at%209.56.50%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/11/18/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-18%20at%209.56.50%20AM.png" alt="" width="606" height="426">
 
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SERVICES LIFTING ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 
Of key importance to the rebalancing of the national economy is the role of the services sectors. These industries, typically labour intensive, have helped to lift the trend employment-to-population ratio in NSW, Victoria, Tasmania, and Queensland. These states are also the ones that are showing the strongest economic performance on the ANZ Stateometer. 
Residential construction has and will continue to be important to supporting employment (in construction and several services industries). Commercial construction, outside of mining, should also play a greater role for some states, with the outlook for non-residential construction looking better in some sectors such as tourism and government-backed infrastructure. 
<a href="/images/2015/11/18/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-18%20at%2010.00.07%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/11/18/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-18%20at%2010.00.07%20AM.png" alt="" width="770" height="1024">
 
Kirk Zammit is economist, ANZ and Cherelle Murphy is co-head of Australian Economics, ANZ. They can be contacted <a href="https://bluenotes.anz.com/authors/our-economists/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

ANZ Stateometer shows Queensland on the road to recovery: Cherelle Murphy

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Shopping centre managers now have a less positive on future trading prospects than six months ago according to the JLL Retail Survey.
In February, 63% of respondents to JLL's Retail Survey said they expected some turnover growth in the year ahead, however in August this had dropped to 51%.
JLL’s head of property and Asset management Australia, Richard Fennell, said one of the concerns being highlighted by centre managers as impacting their turnover performance going forward related to competition from new or upgraded centres.
“On the positive side, the potential impact of online retailing has consistently reduced as a factor in future trading prospects," he said.
"While there is some pressure on sectors of the market from overseas online retailers, it is not seen as a major concern for smaller convenience based centres.
“The main sources of online sales in the grocery sector are the bricks and mortar supermarkets, with sales still reflected through their bricks and mortar stores."
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Completions by Centre Type, 2011-17 
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JLL strategic consulting director David Snoswell said the vacancy rate for sub-regionals declined from 2.8% in December 2014 to 2.2% in June 2015 – the lowest reading since September 2013. 
"The average vacancy rate across neighbourhood centres was 3.9% - the first time the reading has dipped below 4%,” he said.
 “While tenant enquiry levels were weaker in the latest survey compared to the February result, the actual result is only the fourth positive reading from the 13 surveys that have been conducted since 2011 and is a marked improvement compared to the negative sentiment throughout 2013. 
"Tenant enquiry remained positive for the third survey in a row with a net balance of 5%; a relatively good result given that eight of the first nine surveys had negative readings.”
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Turnover Outlook – Next 12 Months 
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