A prominent eastern gateway site to Bondi Junction could soon host a new eight-storey apartment project combining market and affordable housing, under new plans lodged with Waverley Council.

The proposal covers a 1,631 sqm amalgamated site across five properties at 2–6 Bondi Road and 75–77 Old South Head Road, including the corner of Ben Eden Street.&nbsp;

According to the Design Verification Statement by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/tony-owen-partners">Tony Owen Partners</a>, the development will deliver a total of 56 apartments, incorporating 10 affordable dwellings. The project takes advantage of the NSW Government’s Housing SEPP, which provides a 30 per cent uplift in height and floor space ratio in exchange for the inclusion of affordable housing.

<img alt="Bondi Road, Bondi" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="64226782-681d-430f-a08b-31d007ba40e0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Bondi%20Road%20Bondi%20site.png?VersionId=gCt8XpeE4jXEoao0FnG.Ij9mUr73CB68" />

The mix of apartments spans one-, two-, and three-bedroom configurations, with a layout designed to optimise amenity and environmental performance.&nbsp;88.5 per cent of units achieve natural cross ventilation, Tony Owen Partners notes in the statement, attributing the result to the site’s configuration and a high proportion of corner apartments.

The design also responds to the site’s transitional context, on the periphery of the high-rise Bondi Junction commercial core and adjoining the lower-scale Bellevue Hill precinct.&nbsp;

“The siting, scale, bulk, and massing of the proposed development is consistent with that anticipated for the area,” the statement reads, with the building’s height capped at 28.6 metres in line with the LEP controls including bonuses.

<img alt="Bondi Road building" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="083fb63f-8a64-4c21-9c09-83e379f1cedd" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Bondi%20bldg.png?VersionId=aQMby6eh5kCepC_rlXkobUpV0M6IsYns" />

Located near the intersection of Bondi Road, Oxford Street, and Old South Head Road, the site occupies a pivotal position at the entry to Bondi Junction from the east. The site is currently occupied by four detached two-storey dwellings.

Bondi Junction seldom sees new apartment development. Stargate is currently developing <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-centennial-collection-east-sydney-2-nelson-street-bondi-junction-nsw-2022">The Centennial Collection</a>, on the edge of Woollahra and Centennial Park, and are soon to launch <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/signature-by-stargate-362-384-oxford-street-bondi-junction-nsw-2022">Signature by Stargate</a>, just down Oxford Street.

Urban Editorial

First look: Eight-storey apartment block pitched for key Bondi Junction gateway site

Boutique developer SIERA has recently completed PIPIS, a rare, absolute beachfront address that embodies the best of the southern Gold Coast.

PIPIS was delivered in under three years, an achievement that reflects SIERA’s considered yet efficient approach. After securing the prime Golden Four Drive site in late 2022, the team refined the approved design and delivered a boutique collection of 19 residences, including two double-storey penthouses, homes that demonstrate how precision, craftsmanship and a disciplined approach to design can make the most of a rare beachfront location.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138311 project_image_fid=353604]

With construction now complete and residents settled in, the final sub-penthouse offers a rare opportunity to join an address that captures the calm and quality of true beachfront living on the southern Gold Coast.

Beyond its location, PIPIS distinguishes itself through the depth of its amenity and the way those spaces are considered. Every element, from the magnesium lap pool and tropical landscaping to the dedicated dog wash and reformer Pilates equipment, has been planned with the residents’ day-to-day lives in mind. It’s not just what’s included, but how thoughtfully it’s executed.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138311 project_image_fid=353605]

What truly sets PIPIS apart is the construction quality and craftsmanship, a hallmark of SIERA projects since its inception in 2014.

“Design and construction quality is the absolute first priority at SIERA,” says Managing Director Brent Thompson. “It’s the most important aspect of any project we do, before speed of delivery, before sales. If you can guarantee build quality, then the rest will fall into place.”

Thompson says the company’s reputation has been built on trust and lived experience rather than marketing promises. “What we want at SIERA is for future purchasers to speak to our past purchasers and ask them what it’s like living in a SIERA building. If we haven’t delivered on what we’ve promised previously, we won’t be successful in the future.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138311 project_image_fid=6572]

With a background in construction, Thompson’s hands-on approach is a key part of SIERA’s success. “If buyers are putting faith in the SIERA brand, it’s my responsibility that we deliver absolute quality and the highest level of service.”&nbsp;

But for Thompson and SIERA, liveability goes far beyond build quality. Every project begins with a clear understanding of who it’s being designed for. “Before we commit to buying a piece of land to develop, we consider who will reside there and what will matter to them,” Thompson says.

Every residence at PIPIS has been designed to open to the breeze, the natural light, and the sound of the ocean. Broad balconies extend living spaces outward, while the use of robust, tactile materials ensures each home feels grounded and easy to live in. It’s a design shaped by Queensland’s climate and a genuine understanding of how people want to live by the beach.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=138311 project_image_fid=353606]

Location was central to the vision for PIPIS. It was designed for people who know what makes the southern Gold Coast special, those who live here year-round and those who return whenever they can. “Our buyers all share the same mindset,” says Thompson. “They want to be close to Kirra, Palm Beach and Coolangatta, yet still have privacy and calm. They prefer smaller, well-crafted buildings to big towers, and they want to walk straight onto the beach. PIPIS was built around that sense of ease and familiarity.”’

With construction complete and residents now settled in, the final sub-penthouse offers a rare chance to join an address that defines absolute beachfront living on the southern Gold Coast, a building conceived with care, built with precision, and unlikely to be repeated anytime soon.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=138311]

Joel Robinson

Quality assured: The sole focus driving SIERA’s Gold Coast apartment pipeline as PIPIS in Bilinga completes

When apartments are the minority in a suburb, their success often hinges on what’s available without needing a car.&nbsp;

Raya by <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/core-developments">Core Developments</a> arrives at a time when apartment options in Gungahlin remain limited, and demand for well-located, walkable housing continues to grow.

Located on Ernest Cavanagh Street, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/raya-gungahlin-ernest-cavanagh-street-gungahlin-act-2912">Raya</a> places residents within the most active part of Gungahlin.&nbsp;

Retail, dining, education and transport are all within close walking distance, with many of the suburb’s primary amenities located within a 150 to 300 metre radius.

“Raya has got the best to both worlds. A great looking building, that will be built impeccably. It will stand the test of time, and add enduring value for any buyer. And, this is quite simply the best residential location in <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developments/gungahlin-act-2912">Gungahlin</a> with immediate access to every amenity Gungahlin has on offer. You could quite easily sell your car if you move here,” James Herbert of <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/project-marketer/lj-hooker-project-marketing-act-0">LJ Hooker projects</a> said.

<img alt="Raya, Gungahlin" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="266b0b21-f56b-4d93-9039-e9e17a2c4b71" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/e450173a099aaad8055757c92e45efb1-1600x0-c-default.png?VersionId=4X06Ja6e9pQTjOo4QKBEfKiRP1T7hR68" />

Marketplace Gungahlin - the suburb’s main shopping precinct - is less than a two-minute walk from the site. It offers access to major retailers including Woolworths, Aldi, BIG W and Kmart, along with a variety of services, medical centres, and fitness providers.

Dining options in the surrounding blocks are diverse and expanding. Longstanding local favourites like Le Bon Mélange and EQ Café are now joined by new arrivals such as Ikigai Ramen, The Usual and Sunday Canberra, reflecting Gungahlin’s emerging reputation as one of Canberra’s up-and-coming café and dining destinations.

While apartment living often calls for easy access to open space, Raya benefits from its proximity to several parks and recreational facilities. Yerrabi Pond District Park is just minutes away and offers walking trails, playgrounds, and picnic spots, as well as outdoor fitness equipment and a skate park.&nbsp;

Gungahlin Enclosed Oval and the Gungahlin Leisure Centre are also nearby, supporting a range of community and sports activities.

<img alt="Raya, Gungahlin" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6b2ebc21-8257-4144-ad11-3970a73d5125" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/RAYA_2Bed-Living_nochair_3000-2000x0-c-default_0.png?VersionId=BJUJN_k6tZL9p9Lzq13m9OzyyKPstKQY" />

Public transport is a core strength of the location. The Gungahlin Place Light Rail stop, one of the network’s terminal stations, is located less than 100 metres from the development, providing direct access to Canberra’s inner north and CBD. Several local bus routes also operate from the same area, making car-free commuting a realistic option.

The immediate area also includes a number of schools catering to all levels, from early years through to college. Franklin School is within walking distance, while Gungahlin College and Burgmann Anglican School are both around two kilometres away. Childcare centres, health services and veterinary clinics are all established in the precinct.

Medical clinics, pharmacies, allied health services and a public walk-in centre are all available within the town centre footprint.

<img alt="Raya, Gungahlin" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7b35a7c5-dbee-491a-8ec4-ee41c06505b5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Raya_INT03_Rooftop_FP_3000-1600x0-c-default_0.png?VersionId=mTcDlZi3gAUq_spekHAWlWd5kvCbTiH3" />

Raya comprises 166 one, two and three-bedroom apartments, each with a private outdoor area. Balconies start at eight sqm, with some larger configurations offering upwards of 50 sqm of external space - a feature that aligns with the nearby parklands and active public spaces.

Buyers can secure an apartment now with a five per cent deposit, ahead of the project’s 2027 completion.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=149952]

Raya: Rare apartment living in Gungahlin’s town centre

Leeka Group has gone down the path of bringing a heightened level of wellness to its recently unveiled Melbourne apartment development, Comme Prahran.

It isn't in the form of a suite of amenities, given the building is more boutique in nature with just 32 apartments, but with clever inclusions designed to uplift their residents lifestyle.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/comme-prahran-182-194-commercial-road-prahran-vic-3181">Comme</a>, directly opposition the iconic Prahran Market on Commercial Road, has been designed by renowned architecture studio <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> and&nbsp;will introduce the first-of-its-kind multi-dimensional wellness offering, where physical, mental, social, environmental, and cultural well-being are embedded throughout.

“Prahran has long been a destination for culture, community and quality of life, and Comme builds on that in a deeply intentional way,” says Leeka Director, Chek Ming Cheng.&nbsp;

“This project introduces a new kind of urban sanctuary, one that adapts to individual definitions of wellness, whether that’s through nutrition, rest, movement, design or connection. Every space has been thoughtfully shaped to support the diverse rhythms of modern life."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108413 project_image_fid=353544]

There will be a rooftop with a&nbsp;Zen garden designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/plume-studio">Plume Landscape Architects</a>, offering&nbsp;a sensory experience that activates all five senses, an edible herb wall to taste, calming botanicals to smell, reflexology paths to feel, lush plantings to see and the gentle sounds of water and birdsong to hear.

Inside each residence, wellness is deeply personal, and Comme embraces this individuality with a suite of customisation options designed to enhance both health and lifestyle. Residents can tailor their homes with circadian lighting automation, supported by research linking it to improved well-being, better rest, and even longevity.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108413 project_image_fid=353546]

Other add-ons residents can opt for include real-time air monitoring and purification systems, ensuring a cleaner, healthier environment, while blackout blinds help optimise sleep quality. Additionally, the option to include integrated smart home technologies and security measures with multiple controlled access points offers ease, convenience, and peace of mind, supporting day-to-day living and contributing to overall mental well-being.

Kitchens can be fitted with healthy cooking appliances such as steam ovens and taps for instant filtered, sparkling or hot water, while ensuites can be transformed into spa-style sanctuaries complete with steam showers, heated floors, rain heads, smart toilets, and sensor night lights to support restful sleep cycles. In the penthouse residence, further options include an outdoor spa for enhanced recovery and indulgence.

“Comme isn’t just about design, it’s about how space can support your day-to-day life," Chek added.

"Whether you like a steam shower, checking your indoor air quality, simply enjoying a quiet moment in the rooftop garden, or reflecting on the artworks in the building, wellness is part of your everyday routine, not an afterthought."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108413 project_image_fid=353543]

The residences will feature open-plan layouts compliant with Better Apartment Design Standards (BADS), with floor-to-ceiling windows that maximise ventilation, natural light and thermal comfort. Finishes such as natural stones, timber flooring and low-VOC paints are complemented by facade design that filters dappled light and aids in thermal comfort.

Cera Stribley, Co-Founder, Domenic Cerantonio, said the first thing you notice is the light.

"Natural light floods the living spaces, casting a soft glow that instantly lifts your spirits. It's as if the outside world melts away, and you're cocooned in a peaceful oasis."

The gallery-style residential lobby will feature circadian-inspired lighting and artwork, while the ground-floor will offer retail and hospitality spaces.

The building’s mixed-use design fosters connection, with ground-floor retail and hospitality creating a vibrant, welcoming destination. These spaces are thoughtfully designed to enhance the precinct and bring it to life.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108413 project_image_fid=353545]

Sustainability and environmental responsibility are integral to Comme Prahran’s DNA. All homes are gas-free and designed to a 7-star energy average, with double glazing, WELS-rated plumbing, and EV charging capabilities available. A light-coloured exterior has been chosen to minimise heat absorption, supporting thermal efficiency and reducing reliance on artificial cooling.

Honouring the cultural richness of Prahran, the project reimagines an Edwardian-era landmark, integrating its historic character into a contemporary architectural form. Art experiences will activate the residential and retail lobbies, and a dedicated artwork on the external eastern facade will enrich the building’s street presence, embedding it into the creative fabric of the neighbourhood.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108413]

Comme Prahran launches opposite Prahran Market

Apartment developer Third.i has seen "overwhelming interest" in its recently unveiled new harbourside apartment project, The Rushcutters.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-rushcutters-51-57-bayswater-road-rushcutters-bay-nsw-2011">The Rushcutters</a>, which is being delivered in partnership with James Packer's NPACT, will comprise just 13 luxury two- and three-bedroom apartments.&nbsp;

Demand is predominantly coming from local downsizers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144646 project_image_fid=351903]

“We’ve been absolutely blown away by the level of interest in The Rushcutters,” said Luke Berry, Director and Co-founder Third.i Group.

“It’s clear that buyers are seeking more than just a place to live, they’re looking for a lifestyle upgrade. The ability to amalgamate apartments into expansive, whole-floor homes is a game-changer for downsizers who want space without the maintenance of a traditional house.”

The Rubinstein Group is marketing the project alongside Hume Residential and JLL.

“It’s no surprise that if you’re downsizing from a five-bedroom house in Bellevue Hill, for example, you want to maintain that sense of space and luxury when looking for your next home, "&nbsp;Gavin Rubinstein, Founder of The Rubinstein Group, said.

“The Rushcutters is a great fit. Amalgamating apartments to create a bespoke, whole-floor home is a natural progression for buyers who aren’t willing to compromise on size and/or quality.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144646 project_image_fid=351901]

Amalgamating apartments has become a common theme among high-end buyers across Third.i's portfolio including Muse in Potts Point, and Elevate Hume Place in Crows Nest, which set a Lower North Shore apartment record with the $15.1 million sale of an amalgamation of a penthouse and sub-penthouse.

“We’re witnessing a clear shift towards more amalgamations in a number of our projects across Sydney,” said Jason Fraser, Principal at Woods Bagot.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144646 project_image_fid=351899]

“The ability to combine apartments is enabling buyers to create truly unique, house-sized residences with high-end finishes, and proximity to vibrant urban precincts. The desire to amalgamate apartments to bespoke, house-sized residences is becoming a defining feature of Sydney’s evolving luxury apartment market."

Due to the City of Sydney’s no net dwelling loss policy, Thirdi is only able to offer one level for amalgamation at The Rushcutters, combining two apartments into a single, expansive residence.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144646]

The Rushcutters a "great fit" for downsizers

Global Warming

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GUEST INSIGHTS

In cities around the world, temperatures could rise by <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cities-face-withering-heat-under-worst-warming-scenarios/">more than 4℃</a> by 2100 under a high-emissions climate change scenario, suggests <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00958-8">research published this week</a> in Nature Climate Change.

It comes as the Bureau of Meteorology’s <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/">annual climate statement</a>, released today, shows 2020 was Australia’s fourth-warmest year on record, despite being an “La Niña” year, which usually leads to cooler temperatures.

Cities occupy just 3% of Earth’s surface. As this portion of land is so small, they’ve typically been left out of most climate models, which generally make projections on global scales.

Yet more than half the world’s population live in urban environments (set to jump to 70% by 2050). This is why the researchers call for “multi-model projections” of local climates for cities.

In the study, the researchers say their predictions on climate will give “urban planners and decision-makers in any city […] access to city-specific projections for any planning horizon they need”.

It’s important these planning horizons include the cooling and shading provided by <a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-how-green-infrastructure-can-easily-be-added-to-the-urban-planning-toolkit-57277">green infrastructure</a> — the network of green spaces such as street trees and green walls — in urban areas.

For Australia, this means getting a national green infrastructure policy that provides for green spaces within our cities, open spaces and buildings to help with increasing density and rising global temperatures.

What the research found

Heat events, such as heatwaves, pose <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/health-topics/emergency-health-management/heatwave-health-tips-and-information">a significant health risk</a> and can <a href="https://theconversation.com/smart-urban-design-could-save-lives-in-future-heatwaves-33246">hit people harder in cities</a>.

Cities are hotter than in surrounding regional areas due to “<a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/urban-heat-island/">the urban heat island</a>” effect, a result of heat created by all the densely packed people, vehicles and industries, and the heat retained among buildings and other infrastructure.

Despite having the highest population density, the researchers point out that urban areas aren’t often represented in the <a href="https://www.wcrp-climate.org/wgcm-cmip/wgcm-cmip5">Coupled Model Intercomparison Project</a>. This project is important because it informs the global authority on climate change (the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/">International Panel on Climate Change</a>).

So the research authors built a statistical model emulating a complex climate model with urban regions. And they estimate that, by the end of the century, average warming across global cities will increase by 1.9℃ under an intermediate emissions scenario, and 4.4℃ with high emissions.

Urban warming would most affect mid-to-northern parts of the United States, southern Canada, Europe, the Middle East, northern Central Asia and northwestern China.

They also predict that the <a href="https://www.weather.gov/ama/heatindex#">heat index</a> would increase faster than air temperature alone over almost all cities. “Heat index” refers to how hot the human body actually feels, a combination of relative humidity and air temperature. This would mean urban residents would experience higher heat stress.

What does this mean for Australia?

While the research found most urban warming would occur in the northern hemisphere, Australian cities are also projected to continue to warm. But we need only look to the recent record-breaking years to realise climate change will result in more extremely hot days here.

2019 was <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/future-climate.shtml">Australia’s hottest</a> (and driest) year on record. And today’s <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/">annual climate statement</a> from the Bureau of Meteorology shows the highest temperature ever recorded in the Sydney Basin, at a whopping 48.9℃, occurred in 2020, on January 4. It also found the average national temperature for 2020 was 1.15℃ higher than normal.

These are nationwide findings, but how Australia manages climate in urban areas is particularly important as around <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population/latest-release#capital-cities">80% of population growth</a> occurs in capital cities.

In fact, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169204620301407">2020 research</a> found we’re increasingly facing more frequent and prolonged heatwaves that intensify urban heat islands in places such as Sydney, by raising inland temperatures by as much as 10℃ more than in coastal zones.

Keeping cities cool

The best way to ensure our cities are kept cool is through greening urban spaces. Green spaces can be developed by planting trees in streets, yards and parks for shade, recreation and relief from the heat. This will create cooler urban “microclimates” for social interaction and <a href="https://theconversation.com/cities-will-endure-but-urban-design-must-adapt-to-coronavirus-risks-and-fears-135949">natural retreats</a> from city life.

<a href="https://www.dpie.nsw.gov.au/premiers-priorities/greening-our-city">Greater Sydney</a>, for example, has a welcome new policy to ensure five million more trees are planted by 2030. This is an important long-term goal as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221067071630066X">2016 research from Canada</a> found tree cover in daytime reduced air temperature by up to 4℃ in Montreal city.

The design of buildings and their immediate surroundings are also important to help manage increasing heat in our cities.

Our open spaces are places of exercise, retreat, relaxation and, in a new COVID world, socially distant interactions. The pandemic has allowed us <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/popularity-of-parks-prompts-call-for-ideas-to-re-imagine-public-spaces-20200715-p55c5z">to rediscover</a> the importance of our community and local connections in these spaces.

Multi-storey buildings also provide opportunity for vertical greening. The Victorian government, for example, is seeking <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/policy-and-strategy/planning-for-melbourne/plan-melbourne/cooling-greening-melbourne/green-wall-on-the-go">to increase</a> the amount of green infrastructure in our urban areas to help us cope with predicted warmer conditions.

Australia needs a national planning policy

Urban planning and greening urban spaces is largely a local government responsibility, usually overseen by state and territory governments.

And there is national recognition of the importance of green cities through the federal government’s <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/cities/smart-cities/plan/index.aspx">Smart Cities Plan</a>. It states:

Green, sustainable cities […] improve the quality of air and water, reduce the heat island effect, protect biological diversity and threatened species, and enhance general amenity.

But what’s needed, urgently, is a national planning framework of green city principles so no regions get left behind. Climate change is a national issue, and all urban residents from all socioeconomic backgrounds should benefit from green cities.

This national planning policy would describe how our cities across the nation should develop appropriately spaced trees and other vegetation, to better manage and prepare for increasing density and greater activity as climate change brings hotter weather.

And importantly, more research is needed to better inform climate models. We need more information into the ways our climates will change within different land areas — whether rural, suburban or in cities — so we can develop better national plans for how we will live and work in the future.

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mark-maund-804795">Mark Maund</a>, Research Affiliate, School of Architecture and Built Environment, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-newcastle-1060">University of Newcastle</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kim-maund-497893">Kim Maund</a>, Discipline Head – Construction Management, School of Architecture and Built Environment, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-newcastle-1060">University of Newcastle</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/marcus-jefferies-1193769">Marcus Jefferies</a>, Senior Lecturer School of Architecture and Built Environment, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-newcastle-1060">University of Newcastle</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sueanne-ware-984197">SueAnne Ware</a>, Professor and Head of School of Architecture and Built Environment, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-newcastle-1060">University of Newcastle</a>

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cities-could-get-more-than-4-c-hotter-by-2100-to-keep-cool-in-australia-we-urgently-need-a-national-planning-policy-152680">original article</a>.
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Climate change is a national issue, and all urban residents from all socioeconomic backgrounds should benefit from green cities

urban.com.au

Cities could get more than 4°C hotter by 2100, Australia needs a national planning policy

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The Carbon Risk Real Estate Monitor (CRREM) has announced the public release of decarbonisation pathways for the global real estate sector, and the finalisation of the tool to identify and manage transition risks for individual assets.
The pathways will reportedly help market participants meet the recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD).
The downscaling pathways published today on the CRREM website identify annual energy- and carbon-intensity trajectories until 2050 across real estate markets and sectors that are consistent with keeping global warming below 2 degrees Celsius.
This is a policy goal endorsed by most municipal and national governments and thereby constitutes a plausible scenario against which future climate-related transition risk can be assessed.
The major investors supporting CRREM aim to establish it as a global standard for developing long-term decarbonisation pathways in the real estate sector based on a transparent and scientifically rigorous methodology.
CRREM covers 28 countries in Europe, North America and Asia-Pacific across the commercial real estate sector, including retail, offices, and logistics, as well as the residential sector.
According to the organisation, real estate plays a major role in combatting climate change.
The construction and operation of buildings accounts for 39 percent of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions globally, and much higher percentages in densely populated urban centres.
This exposes the real estate sector to significant climate-related transition risk as governments have started to impose increasingly stringent regulations on energy use and emissions from buildings to meet their own climate goals.
Regulatory risk around energy and carbon is shaping market and technology trends in the real estate sector.
As temperature is projected to rise 3.8 degrees Celsius under current legislation, the decarbonisation pathways aligned with 1.5- and 2-degree global carbon budgets reflect significant reduction requirements beyond current legislative requirements.
CRREM estimates that the carbon-intensity of the building sector will globally have to decline from currently approx. 52 kgCO2e/m2/pa to below 10 kgCO2e/m2/pa by 2050 in order to be in line with the 2-degree global carbon budget.
Such a scenario would have significant implications for long-term asset planning and risk management in the sector – especially for developed countries which in some cases are facing 100 kgCO2e/m2/pa as a starting point for office buildings (based on a whole-building approach).
Calculation of the global reduction targets and the derived national targets for different asset classes in the real estate sector create added-value for investors.
Added value for example includes the transparent analysis of carbon risks, calculation of the abatement costs and analysing the correct timing of retrofit measures that are needed to minimize climate-related transition risk.
Along with the pathways, CRREM also finalized the development of a tool to manage stranding risk for individual buildings.
All information required is aligned with the information GRESB collects at the asset level in order to assess and benchmark the performance of real asset portfolios. The software is Excel-based and has undergone a significant testing phase. It is available on the crrem.eu website.
The decarbonisation pathways were developed by the Austria-based Institute for Real Estate Economics (IIÖ), with technical support from GRESB.
The initiative was funded by APG, PGGM and Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) and received further support from Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund and Ivanhoé Cambridge.
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wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

Carbon Risk Real Estate Monitor announces decarbonisation plan

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Last month, the Australian National University contracted with the Social Research Centre (SRC) to survey more than 3,000 Australian adults about their experiences and attitudes related to the bushfires.
The <a href="https://csrm.cass.anu.edu.au/research/surveys/anupoll" target="_blank">study</a> is the first of its kind to gauge how people were affected by the crisis and how it changed their views on a range of subjects, from climate change to the government response.
More than half of Australians felt anxiety
Our research shows the vast majority of Australians were touched in some way by the fires. We asked about eight different forms of impact, from lost property to disrupted holiday plans to difficulty breathing from the smoke.
About 14.4% of our respondents experienced direct exposure to the fires, either through their property damage or evacuations.
We can extrapolate further by looking at population <a href="http://stat.data.abs.gov.au/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=ERP_QUARTERLY" target="_blank">estimates</a> from the ABS and the number of visitors to areas impacted by the bushfires from the <a href="https://www.tra.gov.au/Domestic/domestic-tourism-results" target="_blank">National Visitors Survey</a> to estimate the total number of people directly affected at around 3 million.
And 77.8% of our respondents reported indirect exposure to the fires, such as having a friend or family member with damaged or threatened property, having travel or holiday plans disrupted, being exposed to the physical effects of smoke or feeling anxious or worried about the fires.
Breaking the data down by individual category, the severity of the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-01-07/prolonged-bushfire-smoke-creates-new-health-risks/11844934">public health challenges</a> becomes more clear.
Nearly six in 10 respondents (57%) said they were physically affected by the smoke, while 53.6% said they felt anxious or worried about the fires.
Confidence in the government declined
The long-running <a href="https://australianelectionstudy.org/">Australian Election Study</a> has shown that confidence in the federal government has declined substantially in the past few decades.
Crises have the potential to restore some of this trust if dealt with effectively and transparently. However, the government’s handling of the recent bushfire crisis seems to have had the opposite effect.
Confidence in the federal government declined by 10.9 percentage points from 38.2% in our survey in October 2019 to 27.3% by January 2020.
Confidence in other institutions, meanwhile, was quite stable over the four-month period, and higher than for the federal government. Rural fire-fighting services had the highest level of public trust in our survey at 92.5%.
We also found a significant decline in the percentage of people who said they would vote for the Coalition if an election was held that day. This dropped from 40.4% in October 2019 to just 34.8% in January 2020 – nearly even with those who said they would vote for Labor in January (33.4%).
Significant increase in concern over global warming
We also tracked significant changes in people’s attitudes towards the environment.
For instance, 49.7% of people reported the environment as one of the top two issues facing Australia in January 2020, compared to 41.5% of respondents in October 2019.
Another interesting finding: 10.2% reported fires, natural disasters or extreme weather as the most or second-most important issue facing Australians, up from nearly nonexistent in October 2019.
Our findings showed consistently higher concern among Australians when it comes to specific environmental issues. Comparing responses from our January 2020 survey and a 2008 ANUpoll, we saw two large increases in concern for loss of native vegetation, animal species or biodiversity (13 percentage points) and drought and drying (nine percentage points).
There was an even larger increase in the proportion of people who believe global warming or climate change will impact their lives.
Nearly three-quarters (72.3%) of respondents said global warming was a very serious or fairly serious threat, a substantial increase from the 56% who said so in 2008.
The majority of those living in capital cities said they felt global warming was a very serious problem (62%) or a threat (74.9%). Perhaps even more surprising, however, was the fact these views were shared by people in non-capital cities (52% said it was very serious, 65.5% said it was a threat).
Support for new coal mines has also declined sharply over the past eight months. In our January survey, 37% of respondents said the government should allow the opening of new coal mines, down from 45.3% in an <a href="https://dataverse.ada.edu.au/dataverse.xhtml?alias=CSES">ANU survey</a> from June 2019.
While being exposed to the bushfires appears to have made people more aware of environmental issues, the drop in support for new coal mines does not appear to have been driven by the crisis itself. Rather, it appears to be consistent across the population, with the biggest decline occurring among those who voted for the Coalition in the 2019 federal election (57.5% supported new mines in January 2020, down from 71.8% in June 2019).
There is still much work to be done to fully understand people’s attitudes towards climate change and how this correlates with natural disasters like bushfires.
But the data in our survey provide opportunities for future research and new insights and will be made available through the Australian Data Archive. Future surveys could test for changes in people’s attitudes taking into account different variables and track how those attitudes change over time.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131672/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nicholas-biddle-10171">Nicholas Biddle</a>, Professor of Economics and Public Policy, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877">Australian National University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ben-edwards-446349">Ben Edwards</a>, Associate Professor, Child and Youth Development and Longitudinal Studies, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877">Australian National University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/diane-herz-965267">Diane Herz</a>, CEO, Social Research Centre, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877">Australian National University</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/toni-makkai-968244">Toni Makkai</a>, Emeritus Professor, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877">Australian National University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/nearly-80-of-australians-affected-in-some-way-by-the-bushfires-new-survey-shows-131672">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Nearly 80% of Australians have been affected by bushfires in some way

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GUEST OBSERVATION
During a heatwave in late 2018, Cairns temperatures topped 35°C nine days in a row and sensors at some points in the CBD recorded 45°C. <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/taha-chaiechi-106267"> </a>
Some <a href="https://www.un.org/en/ecosoc/integration/pdf/fact_sheet.pdf" target="_blank">60% of the planet’s expected urban area by 2030</a> is yet to be built. This forecast highlights how rapidly the world’s people are becoming urban. Cities now occupy about 2% of the world’s land area, but are home to about <a href="/news">55% of the world’s people</a> and generate more than <a href="http://nua.unhabitat.org/details1.asp?ProjectId=33&amp;ln=1" target="_blank">70% of global GDP</a>, plus the associated <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/cities-pollution.shtml" target="_blank">greenhouse gas emissions</a>.
So what does this mean for people who live in the tropical zones, where <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2014/06/expanding-tropics-will-play-greater-global-role-report-predicts" target="_blank">40% of the world’s population lives</a>? On current trends, this figure will rise to 50% by 2050. With <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/974736_Ziembicki%20et%20al._Implications%20of%20an%20expanding%20and%20intensifying%20tropical%20zone%20for%20the%20sustainable%20development%20agenda.pdf" target="_blank">tropical economies growing some 20% faster</a> than the rest of the world, the result is a swift expansion of tropical cities.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290236/original/file-20190830-115397-n616fu.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290236/original/file-20190830-115397-n616fu.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Population and number of cities of the world, by size class, 1990, 2018 and 2030. 
The populations of these growing tropical cities already experience high temperatures made worse by high humidity. This means they are highly vulnerable to extreme heat events as a result of climate change.
For example, extremely hot weather overwhelmed Cairns last summer. By December 3 2018, the city had recorded temperatures above 35°C nine days in a row. Four consecutive days were above 40°C.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289316/original/file-20190825-170935-9uanh3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Cairns’ heatwave summer. Authors, using BOM temperature data
For our research, temperature and humidity sensors were strategically placed in the Cairns CBD to represent people’s experience of weather at street level. These recorded temperatures consistently higher than the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) recordings, reaching 45°C at some points.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291224/original/file-20190906-175682-1p2r1by.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291224/original/file-20190906-175682-1p2r1by.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Highest temperatures recorded by James Cook University weather data sensors during the November-December 2018 heatwave in Cairns. Image: Bronson Philippa, Author provided
Local effects magnify heatwave impacts
Urban environments in general are hotter than non-urbanised surroundings that are covered by vegetation. The trapping of heat in cities, known as the <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/urban-heat-island/" target="_blank">urban heat island</a> effect, has impacts on human health, animal life, social events, tourism, water availability and business performance.
The urban heat island effect intensifies the impacts of increasing heatwaves on cities as a result of climate change.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291226/original/file-20190906-175678-la15cl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291226/original/file-20190906-175678-la15cl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Projections of increased heatwave frequency for Cairns region using visualisation platform on Queensland Future Climate Dashboard.<a class="source" href="https://app.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/dashboard/#responseTab2"> </a>
But it is important to remember that other local factors also influence these impacts. These include the scale, shape, materials, composition and growth of the built environment in a particular location and its surrounding areas.
The differences between the BoM data recorded at Cairns airport and the inner-city recordings show the impacts of urban expansion patterns, built form and choice of materials in tropical cities.
The linear layout of Cairns has, on one hand, enabled the formation of attractive places for commercial activities. As these activity centres evolve into focal points of urban life, they in turn influence all sorts of socioeconomic parameters.
On the other hand, the form the built environment takes changes the patterns of wind, sun and shade. These changes alter the urban <a href="https://theconversation.com/city-temperatures-and-city-economics-a-hidden-relationship-between-sun-and-wind-and-profits-116064" target="_blank">microclimate</a> by trapping heat and slowing or channelling air movements.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289318/original/file-20190825-170910-sjsrqt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
The layout and structures of Cairns CBD alter local microclimates by trapping heat and altering air flows.
Shifting the focus to the tropics
To date, a large body of research has explored the undesired consequences of climate change and urban heat islands. However, the focus has been on capital and metropolitan cities with <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-015-1703-8" target="_blank">humid continental climates</a>. Not many studies have looked at the economic and social impacts in the tropical context, where hot and humid conditions create extra heat stress.
Add the combined effects of climate change and urban heat islands and what are the socio-economic consequences of heatwaves in a tropical city like Cairns? We see that climate change adds another dimension to the relationship between cities, economic growth and development.
This presents a huge opportunity to start thinking about building cities that are not superficially greenwashed, but which instead tackle pressing issues such as climate variability and create sustainable business and social destinations.
In cold climates, heatwaves and urban heat islands are not necessarily undesired, but their negative impacts are more obvious and harmful in warmer climates. And these harmful impacts of heatwaves on our economy, environment and society are on the rise.
We have scientific evidence of the increasing length, frequency and intensity of heatwaves. The number of record hot days in Australia has <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/9901f6614a2cac7b2b888f55b4dff9cc.pdf" target="_blank">doubled in the past five decades</a>.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289313/original/file-20190825-170956-trlr9q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Projections of changes in heatwave frequency for northern Queensland in 2030 and 2070. <a class="source" href="https://app.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/dashboard/#responseTab2" target="_blank">Queensland Future Climate Dashboard/Queensland Government</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY</a>
What are the costs of heatwaves?
Increased exposure to heatwaves amplifies the adverse economic impacts on industries that are reliant on the health of their outdoor workers. This is in addition to the extreme heat-related fatalities and health-care costs of heatwave-related medical emergencies. As a <a href="https://www.nccarf.edu.au/localgov/resources/protecting-human-health-and-safety-during-severe-and-extreme-heat-events-national" target="_blank">PwC report to the Commonwealth</a> on extreme heat events stated:
Heatwaves kill more Australians than any other natural disaster. They have received far less public attention than cyclones, floods or bushfires — they are private, silent deaths, which only hit the media when morgues reach capacity or infrastructure fails.
Heat also has direct impacts on economic production. A <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/45660010_Temperatures_and_cyclones_strongly_associated_with_economic_production_in_the_Caribbean_and_Central_America" target="_blank">2010 study</a> found a 1°C increase resulted in a 2.4% reduction in non-agricultural production and a 0.1% reduction in agricultural production in 28 Caribbean-basin countries. Another <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2099798" target="_blank">study in 2012</a> found an 8% weekly loss of production when the temperature exceeded 32°C for six days in a row.
The 2017 <a href="http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/climate/farm-performance-climate" target="_blank">Farm performance and climate</a> report by the <a href="http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares" target="_blank">Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)</a> states:
"The recent changes in climate have had a significant negative effect on the productivity of Australian cropping farms, particularly in southwestern Australia and southeastern Australia."
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291232/original/file-20190906-175682-1k3i4mj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291232/original/file-20190906-175682-1k3i4mj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> 
Average climate effect on productivity of cropping farms in southwestern and southeastern Australia since 2000–01 (relative to average conditions from 1914–15 to 2014–15). <a class="source" href="http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/climate/farm-performance-climate" target="_blank">Farm performance and climate, ABARES</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY</a>
It’s not just farming that is vulnerable. A <a href="/news">Victorian government report</a> report this year estimated an extreme heatwave event costs the state’s construction sector A$103 million. The impact of heatwaves on the city of Melbourne’s economy is estimated at A$52.9 million a year on average.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290239/original/file-20190830-115391-128cd7z.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290239/original/file-20190830-115391-128cd7z.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Impacts of heatwaves on Victoria’s main economic sectors. <a class="source" href="/news" target="_blank">State of Victoria Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY</a>
According to this report, economic costs increase exponentially as the severity of heatwaves increases. This has obvious implications for cities in tropical regions.
As the next step in <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/project/Evidence-based-Economic-Assessment-of-Urban-Comfort" target="_blank">our research</a>, we are examining the relationship between local urban features, urban heat islands, the resulting city temperatures and their direct and indirect (spillover) effects on local and regional economic activities.
Taha Chaiechi, Senior Lecturer, James Cook University
Silvia Tavares, Lecturer in Urban Design, James Cook University 
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-growth-heat-islands-humidity-climate-change-the-costs-multiply-in-tropical-cities-120825" target="_blank">original article</a>.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/120825/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
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Urban growth, heat islands, humidity, climate change: the costs multiply in tropical cities: James Cook University

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One of the problems with cars is the pollution they cause.
This not only impacts the world through greenhouse gas emissions but also has an impact on the health of residents living in areas with poor air quality, according to the latest Secret Agent report.
One of the main obvious benefits of restricted car use in our cities is less congestion.
Taking cars and street parking away means that there is more room for public amenity.
This includes wider footpaths as well as more room for plants and green space. This can also lead to beneficial health effects.
If more people are out and about walking and spending time in green spaces, rather than in their car, home or office, there are more opportunities for social interaction.
This is important because social isolation is a risk factor for physical and mental illness.
Another benefit noted by the report was that: "With less cars in the area it can be expected that there will be fewer fatalities caused by traffic accidents."
In terms of property value, more green space, safer streets and less traffic are also positive features.
Improved public realm and amenity can increase the desirability of a particular area.
This combined with population growth, will increase demand and property prices will likely go up, according to the report.
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Why going car free can boost property prices: The Secret Agent Report

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/80140/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
When you think of Antarctica, you probably picture vast, continuous ice sheets and glaciers, with maybe a penguin or two thrown in.
Yet most Antarctic plants and animals live in the permanently ice-free areas that cover about 1 percent of the continent. Our new research predicts that these areas could grow by a quarter during this century, with mixed prospects for the species that currently live there. 
Besides everyone’s favourite Emperor and Adélie penguins, terrestrial Antarctic species also include beautiful mosses, lichens, two types of flowering plants, and a suite of hardy invertebrates such as nematodes, springtails, rotifers and tardigrades, many of which are found nowhere else on Earth. Tardigrades – tiny creatures sometimes nicknamed “waterbears” – are so tough they can survive in space.
Antarctica’s ice-free areas are currently limited to a scattering of rocky outcrops along the coastline, or cliff faces, or the tops of mountain ranges. They form small patches of suitable habitat in a huge sea of ice, much like islands. 
As a result, the plants and animals that live there are often isolated from each other. But as Antarctica’s climate warms, we expect ice-free areas to get bigger and eventually start joining up. This would create more habitat for native species, but also new opportunities for non-native species to spread. 
Our study, published today in Nature, forecasts that climate change will expand Antarctica’s ice-free areas over the course of this century. Under the most severe scenario that we modelled (which is also the one on which the globe is currently tracking), more than 17,000 square km of new ice-free area could emerge across the continent by 2100. 
This would increase the current total ice-free area by nearly a quarter. The majority of this new ice-free land will be on the Antarctic Peninsula, which could have three times as much ice-free area as it does today.  
Brave new world
As the ice-free areas expand, the distances between them will decrease, giving plants and animals more opportunity to spread through the landscape. On the Antarctic Peninsula, which has already warmed more than anywhere else in Antarctica, many of the ice-free patches will expand so much that they will start joining together.
Will this increase in habitat availability benefit the plants and animals that live there? It will definitely provide new opportunities for some native plants and animals to expand their range and colonise new areas. The warming climate may also give a boost to species that are currently hampered by the lack of warmth, nutrients and water. Some Antarctic mosses, for example, are expected to grow faster as temperatures rise, and Antarctica’s two flowering plant species are already expanding southward.
However, the potential benefits seem likely to be outweighed by the negatives. The joining-up of habitat patches could allow species that have been isolated for much of their evolutionary past to meet suddenly. If the newcomers to a particular area outcompete the native species, then it may lead to localised extinctions. Over the coming centuries this could lead to the loss of many plants and animals, and the homogenisation of Antarctica’s ecosystems.
Antarctic aliens
An even bigger concern is that Antarctica’s great thaw could provide new opportunities for species to invade. Antarctica’s best bulwark against non-native species is its harsh climate and extreme weather, to which native Antarctic species have spent many thousands of years adapting. 
We already know that many plants and invertebrates are reaching Antarctica, most often in food or cargo shipments. As the climate warms, some of these non-native species may be able to establish themselves on the Antarctic Peninsula, and the increasing connectivity will allow them to easily move through the landscape. Many of these animals and plants may become invasive, competing with the native species for space and resources. 
We don’t know how Antarctica’s species will cope with the increasing competition. But if the sub-Antarctic islands provide any indication, the outlook is depressing. Australia’s World Heritage-listed Macquarie Island, for example, was severely impacted by invasive cats, rats, rabbits and mice (although it has since been declared free of these pests after an intensive eradication effort).
Several non-native species have already come to Antarctica, including the invasive annual meadowgrass Poa annua (a common weed around the world), which has colonised newly ice-free areas left behind by retreating glaciers. It is thought to outcompete Antarctica’s native plants, although we don’t yet know what the impact will be on animals. 
Humans – both scientists and tourists – are key transporters of non-native species to the continent, and tourist numbers continue to grow (almost 37,000 visited in the 2016-17 summer). 
Biosecurity is paramount for the ongoing protection of Antarctica. If bags, shoes, clothes and field equipment are not properly cleaned and inspected before arriving on the continent, then non-native seeds, microbes and insects could be transported to Antarctica and begin to spread. 
We call for protection of ice-free areas that will remain intact in a changing climate, and for the Antarctic scientific and tourism communities to pinpoint key areas where greater biosecurity and monitoring for invasive species may be needed.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jasmine-lee-171931" target="_blank">Jasmine Lee</a> is PhD candidate, biodiversity conservation and climate change, The University of Queensland.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/justine-shaw-299755" target="_blank">Justine Shaw</a> is Conservation Biologist, The University of Queensland.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-fuller-169469" target="_blank">Richard Fuller</a> is Associate Professor in Biodiversity and Conservation, The University of Queensland.
All are authors for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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