A wave of investment, renewal and precinct growth continues to shape the northern edge of Macquarie Park, where daily life is supported by a rare combination of university activity, corporate employment, major retail, and expansive green corridors. It’s this convergence of amenity and connectivity underpins the setting for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a>, which has now topped out and is tracking toward completion in mid-2026.

Within this pocket of the precinct, residents move easily between the area’s key anchors. Macquarie Centre, home to more than 360 retailers, fresh food offerings, dining and entertainment, sits at the heart of local convenience and functions as a major transport interchange. The Metro, T1 rail line and extensive bus network place much of Sydney within quick reach, while surrounding arterial links support direct access to neighbouring districts.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=5829]

Green space remains a defining feature of the immediate environment. Lane Cove National Park stretches along the northern boundary of the precinct, offering bushland trails, cycling routes and quiet riverfront pockets. Shrimptons Creek and the campus grounds of Macquarie University extend these recreational networks, softening the urban setting and creating a daily connection to nature that informs the project’s architectural response.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> have shaped La Vera around these contrasts. The building’s northern elevation adopts an organic, curvilinear form that mirrors the natural topography of the national park. Three sculpted forms soften the tower’s profile and encourage a stronger transition between indoor living areas, balconies and the broader landscape.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=223737]

Cox Director Felipe Miranda says the building’s outlook played a central role in the design process.

“The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park… The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies,” Felipe Miranda of Cox Architecture said.

Toward the city-facing side, the design shifts to a more urban expression. A gridded facade and extensive glazing capture CBD views, creating a dual strategy that blends ecological outlooks with metropolitan orientation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=5827]

La Vera delivers 169 residences across one- to four-bedroom layouts, reflecting the needs of young families, downsizers, first-home buyers and investors seeking long-term certainty within a high-amenity location. From the project, residents can walk to Macquarie University, Macquarie Hospital and nearby corporate offices, reach national park trails within minutes, and enjoy retail and dining without relying on a car.

The project is delivered by Urban Property Group, a 4.5-star iCIRT-rated developer-builder with more than three decades of experience. The company has become a leader in adopting 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI), first introduced on its Parq Bexley development and now embedded into its pipeline.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=223727]

La Vera is the first development in Macquarie Park approved to offer this 10-year LDI policy, adding another layer of protection for purchasers and reinforcing the transparency of the construction process.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias says this assurance has become increasingly important for buyers navigating the off-the-plan market.

“Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been… Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share,” Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said.

Urban Property Group's in-house construction team is forecasting a mid-2026 completion, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/home789">HOME789</a> appointed as the project marketer.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134951]

Staff Writer

La Vera delivers a nature-connected address within Macquarie Park’s core

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/aura-by-aqualand-north-sydney-168-walker-street-north-sydney-nsw-2060">AURA</a>&nbsp;doesn’t just rise over North Sydney, it redefines it. Now in its final release, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a>’s $1 billion architectural statement is not just complete, but already reshaping the way people live, connect and dine in this rapidly evolving harbourside CBD.

Positioned beside the new Victoria Cross Metro Station and boasting panoramic views across Sydney Harbour, Aura’s 386 residences crown a mixed-use precinct designed with unapologetic ambition. The curvaceous sandstone-inspired form by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, paired with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richard Stanisich</a>’s understated interiors, sets a design tone that’s both monumental and intimate.

At its peak, literally, the two penthouses so spectacular they command their own names; La Davina and Il Magnate. The residents are spread across the&nbsp;entire top floor, offering what many consider the most refined residences ever built in North Sydney. Designed by Richard and Kirsten Stanisich, each four-bedroom home is meticulously crafted to evoke calm, space, and permanence.&nbsp;

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VB70993aG-I?si=adRBlXQliYmYvaSz" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

The kitchens are fully wrapped in natural stone, with integrated Gaggenau appliances, Sub-Zero fridges, concealed sculleries, and even a zip hydro tap delivering boiling, chilled and sparkling water on demand. A linear stone fireplace anchors the open-plan living space, dividing lounge and dining zones with quiet sophistication.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=292861]

The master suite, meanwhile, feels more like a private retreat, complete with a custom stone makeup vanity, walk-through dressing area, and spa-inspired ensuite with heated stone floors, a freestanding Villeroy &amp; Boch tub, and timber veneer joinery throughout.

Kirsten Stanisich, Director of Richards Stanisich, said the penthouses offer incredible scale reflective of a single residence.&nbsp;

“We sought inspiration for these remarkable residences from the classic top-floor Parisian apartment," Stanisich said.

"We looked at what made these French apartments so elegant and found it really came down to their scale. It was ultimately this generosity of space that we used for the AURA penthouses, where we’ve designed considered rooms with deep large-scale proportions."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=310337]

Everyday living at Aura feels no less elevated. A dedicated 24-hour concierge, Technogym fitness centre, sky dining terraces, and a resort-style pool serve a lifestyle designed to rival luxury hotels.

At street level, Aqualand’s own hospitality arm, Etymon Projects, curates a precinct of LA-style bistros, Japanese fine dining, and local wine bars, all seamlessly integrated into the building’s sculptural podium.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=310337]

This final chapter, aptly dubbed The Finale, is more than a sales phase, it’s an invitation to two of the most exclusive apartments ever to be built in North Sydney.

With limited residences remaining, buyers can access curated incentives including stamp duty rebates, rental guarantees, legal fee coverage, and even $20,000 towards dining within the precinct.

From generous one-bedders to The Icons, two singular penthouses priced well into prestige territory, Aura’s offerings reflect a scale and calibre rarely seen in urban Sydney. And with move-in now immediate, this is no longer a promise of future luxury. It’s happening.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=30959]

Aqualand unveils penthouse collection at AURA By Aqualand in North Sydney

There’s no sign of the development wave that began several years ago slowing along Old Burleigh Road.

Around 10 new apartment developments are either underway or preparing to launch along the 800-metre strip stretching from the southern edge of Surfers Paradise towards the heart of Broadbeach, collectively adding just shy of 1,000 new apartments to the beachfront corridor.

The latest plans propose a further 30 apartments to replace an original six-unit walk-up on a 658 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/20a-old-burleigh-road-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">20A Old Burleigh Road</a>. The 14-storey building has been designed by Ferro Chow Architecture, which recently joined the Elevation Architecture Group.

The developer behind the project is Geoffrey Booth, whose Future Liv In has focused on delivering rental accommodation across regional Australia.

<img alt="Old Burleigh Road" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="99d393e7-d404-43bc-80cb-6255c39b83d6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-05%20at%2012.28.44%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ZFT8F3mOny4M4ut.kFF3woC9WH9oR5gT" />

The Old Burleigh Road development will comprise 18 two-bedroom apartments, 10 three-bedroom apartments, and a single four-bedroom residence occupying the entirety of level 12. Above, the building will be crowned by a two-storey penthouse with its own private lift, several multi-purpose rooms, and two rooftop terraces — one featuring a puppy lawn and spa, the other offering a private swimming pool, sunset deck, and built-in barbecue.

Resident amenities will be located on the second level and include a pool with adjoining spa, cabana, and pool deck, along with an indoor residents’ lounge featuring a bar and an alfresco barbecue kitchen.

In the architectural statement submitted by Elevation Architecture, the project is referred to as “UMI”, which the firm says has been “inspired by the majestic hinterlands and shaped by the coastal climate”.

“It is an exemplar of how community living can still feel at one with nature, breathable, and deeply connected in place,” the architects noted.

They added that the site benefits from established building separation to adjoining towers, helping to maintain privacy, sunlight, and residential amenity, while still offering direct beach access within an urban setting.

“Drawing inspiration from the Gold Coast hinterlands and the region’s natural landscape, the podium and tower detail highlights the contrasting elements of treetop green and cliff-face peach. The vibrant texture and materiality shaped by time has a richness in depth and character.”

<img alt="Old Burleigh Road" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b3d6c923-a0ab-4d74-86da-177313447e8e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-05%20at%2012.28.38%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=i2fygmoVQM6hWpbATTAW_yTitoMTrnI1" />

Old Burleigh Road has become a hotspot for developers, with the three-tower Jewel development kickstarting a wave of projects up and down the strip when it was completed in 2020.

Currently under construction and approaching completion is <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/faro-broadbeach-123-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">FARO Broadbeach</a> by 5Point and Bottega, 21 large-scale half- and full-floor apartments. 5Point is also behind the recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lumara-108-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">Lumara</a>, another 37 apartments to add to the pipeline.

Luxury builder GRAYA is progressing construction on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/enclave-by-graya-118-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">Enclave</a>, its first Gold Coast tower, while Polycell remains the most active developer on the street. They are preparing to launch <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/sandpiper-broadbeach-155-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">Sandpiper</a>, a 50-storey redevelopment of the former Sandpiper Holiday Resort that will deliver around 200 apartments alongside extensive resident amenity. The group also has another 130-apartment project approved nearby, as does <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/dvb-approved-for-second-broadbeach-apartment-development">Dean Gallagher’s DVB Projects</a>.

Joel Robinson

First look: Old Burleigh Road apartment development wave continues

Sunshine Coast developer Habitat Development Group continues to position itself as one of the region’s largest new apartment developers.

Its latest project is in Maroochydore, where it is currently delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-millwell-2-millwell-road-east-maroochydore-qld-4558">The Millwell</a>. Adjacent to the new 53-hectare Maroochydore City Centre project, Habitat is planning a further 180 apartments on a 3,468 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/132-136-aerodrome-road-maroochydore-qld-4558">132–136 Aerodrome Road</a>. The site was purchased with approval for a smaller 13-storey, 103-unit building.

Habitat will demolish the two existing retail centres, currently home to the Salvation Army Family Store and Neighbours Aid, and replace them with an 18-storey building featuring the significant rooftop amenities that have become a hallmark of Habitat developments in recent years. The rooftop will include both indoor and outdoor spaces, anchored by an infinity swimming pool.

<img alt="Maroochydore" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ad434d07-666b-4614-b33e-530ad6a2d261" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-05%20at%2010.12.33%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=7pyLsPWKQuwv0us3_v.9DmbzEc2VZe9Z" />

There will be a mix of one- to four-bedroom apartments.

The Development Assessment Report, submitted to the Sunshine Coast Council, says the proposal&nbsp;is not speculative, but a response to both zoning intent and demonstrated housing need.

“The proposed development represents an appropriate and logical intensification of the site, consistent with the planning framework and the intended urban outcomes for the locality.”

Across the Sunshine Coast, councils are increasingly scrutinising not just height or yield, but whether new projects genuinely align with the long-term structure plans underpinning growth corridors. The&nbsp;ASTP Planning Report&nbsp;reinforces the approach, noting that the project has been shaped around site responsiveness rather than generic typology.

“The development has been designed to respond to the physical constraints and opportunities of the site, while delivering a high-quality residential outcome that integrates with the existing and emerging urban context.”

<img alt="Habitat" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3a03fc54-4ca5-4868-88d0-eeced70604e2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-05%20at%2010.12.28%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=1pkK3lJrrZjkghTLBReM2zatcas4Nc4B" />

In mid-2025, Habitat, a developer that also builds its own projects, commenced construction on The Millwell, located just over one kilometre from the new proposal. The Millwell will comprise more than 200 apartments across two eight-storey buildings.

Habitat also has two projects on Lake Kawana in Birtinya: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/st-clair-birtinya-930-931-waterside-retreat-birtinya-qld-4575">St Clair</a>, a 200-unit, two-building development launched last year and set to welcome buyers this year; and Esperance, a 175-apartment project currently progressing through the development approval process.

First look: Habitat continues to bolster Sunshine Coast apartment pipeline with Maroochydore development plans

John Camilleri, the breeder of legendary racehorse Winx, is set to deliver a landmark two-tower beachfront development that would redefine the Surfers Paradise skyline.

Camilleri, who spent around $100 million acquiring development sites across the Gold Coast in 2025, has lodged plans for two new towers on the dress-circle stretch of Garfield Terrace, just two days before Christmas.

In assembling the site, Camilleri's Celestino Developments has effectively acquired the 71 Garfield project by Iris Capital and AALTO by Weiya Holdings, creating an unrivalled <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/63-79-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">4,000 sqm beachfront holding along Garfield Terrace</a>.

The proposal comprises two residential towers of 55 and 48 storeys, linked by a dramatic skybridge which will home “exclusive VIP and wellness amenities.”

In total, the development would deliver 275 two-, three- and four-bedroom apartments across the two towers, rising above a shared landscaped podium that incorporates a central green space and a beachfront swimming pool stretching more than 90 metres.

<img alt="DBI" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="097900f3-6bef-4919-b168-b08f2f762876" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-30%20at%209.37.58%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=et0SpmcvaPPVrexI_zWi46BVFtZBxAzx" />

Architecture firm DBI, in documents submitted to Gold Coast City Council, said the project at 63–79 Garfield Terrace would “establish a new benchmark for beachfront residential living on the Gold Coast.”

"The project occupies a rare, uninterrupted oceanfront site and has been shaped by a design philosophy that merges architectural elegance with environmental responsiveness and a carefully curated lifestyle experience. Together, the 48-storey North Tower and 55-storey South Tower form a distinctive twin-tower composition whose dynamic silhouette will make a significant contribution to the Surfers Paradise skyline."

DBI said the architectural language draws inspiration from the fluidity and movement of the coastal landscape.

"Each tower is defined by organic, curving forms and continuous balcony ribbons that wrap the buildings, providing deep shading, enhancing environmental performance, and reinforcing the rhythmic, sculptural expression of the façade. These balcony forms also reduce the apparent mass of the towers while maintaining strong visual continuity from podium to summit. Sculpted reflective downturns run along the western spine of both towers, shifting and lifting as they extend upwards to frame service zones and open eastward to maximise ocean views."

<img alt="Garfield" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a2a00ce3-a0e9-45d6-b4b5-b7baed592ac5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-30%20at%209.53.40%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=DnruWV1dhLrtXOeElwekyd7vPq2gw55t" />

The project’s most striking feature is the skybridge at level 45, which will house executive lounges, formal dining spaces, wellness facilities and panoramic ocean-facing views.

“The skybridge enhances the identity of the development, promotes social interaction, and delivers a lifestyle experience not found elsewhere on the Gold Coast,” DBI added.

The podium will host an extensive suite of recreational amenities, including resident lounges, private dining rooms, a large open green lawn, and the signature 90-metre pool stretching along the beachfront. The pool is divided into lap, lounge and children’s zones.

The southern end of the podium will accommodate additional wellness facilities, including a gymnasium, plunge pools, treatment rooms and a dedicated yoga lawn.

<img alt="Garfield" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ee1b4f25-231f-4804-83b1-a573a1481962" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-30%20at%209.55.47%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=zObzIA3D5w7EwqPsHjr2pKrA4vbB28zL" />

There will be 127 apartments in the North Tower and 148 in the South Tower, including multiple penthouses, while the Enderley Avenue and Oceanway frontages will be activated by a series of food and beverage tenancies.

Camilleri emerged as the most active site acquirer on the Gold Coast in 2025. He spent just over $30 million acquiring Pacific Point, a 10-level Surfers Paradise apartment block and an adjoining three-level duplex, from fellow racing identity and Aquis billionaire Tony Fung. Plans are now underway for a 93-apartment, 40-storey tower on the 1,682 sqm site.

He also paid $53.65 million for the 1,500 sqm Garfield Terrace site previously marketed as AALTO by Weiya Holdings, before acquiring the adjoining parcel from hotel billionaire Sam Arnaout’s Iris Capital, the developer behind V&amp;A Broadbeach.

First look exclusive: Billionaire Winx breeder’s bold two-tower Surfers Paradise play with 45th-storey skybridge

Global Warming

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GUEST INSIGHTS

In cities around the world, temperatures could rise by <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cities-face-withering-heat-under-worst-warming-scenarios/">more than 4℃</a> by 2100 under a high-emissions climate change scenario, suggests <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00958-8">research published this week</a> in Nature Climate Change.

It comes as the Bureau of Meteorology’s <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/">annual climate statement</a>, released today, shows 2020 was Australia’s fourth-warmest year on record, despite being an “La Niña” year, which usually leads to cooler temperatures.

Cities occupy just 3% of Earth’s surface. As this portion of land is so small, they’ve typically been left out of most climate models, which generally make projections on global scales.

Yet more than half the world’s population live in urban environments (set to jump to 70% by 2050). This is why the researchers call for “multi-model projections” of local climates for cities.

In the study, the researchers say their predictions on climate will give “urban planners and decision-makers in any city […] access to city-specific projections for any planning horizon they need”.

It’s important these planning horizons include the cooling and shading provided by <a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-how-green-infrastructure-can-easily-be-added-to-the-urban-planning-toolkit-57277">green infrastructure</a> — the network of green spaces such as street trees and green walls — in urban areas.

For Australia, this means getting a national green infrastructure policy that provides for green spaces within our cities, open spaces and buildings to help with increasing density and rising global temperatures.

What the research found

Heat events, such as heatwaves, pose <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/health-topics/emergency-health-management/heatwave-health-tips-and-information">a significant health risk</a> and can <a href="https://theconversation.com/smart-urban-design-could-save-lives-in-future-heatwaves-33246">hit people harder in cities</a>.

Cities are hotter than in surrounding regional areas due to “<a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/urban-heat-island/">the urban heat island</a>” effect, a result of heat created by all the densely packed people, vehicles and industries, and the heat retained among buildings and other infrastructure.

Despite having the highest population density, the researchers point out that urban areas aren’t often represented in the <a href="https://www.wcrp-climate.org/wgcm-cmip/wgcm-cmip5">Coupled Model Intercomparison Project</a>. This project is important because it informs the global authority on climate change (the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/">International Panel on Climate Change</a>).

So the research authors built a statistical model emulating a complex climate model with urban regions. And they estimate that, by the end of the century, average warming across global cities will increase by 1.9℃ under an intermediate emissions scenario, and 4.4℃ with high emissions.

Urban warming would most affect mid-to-northern parts of the United States, southern Canada, Europe, the Middle East, northern Central Asia and northwestern China.

They also predict that the <a href="https://www.weather.gov/ama/heatindex#">heat index</a> would increase faster than air temperature alone over almost all cities. “Heat index” refers to how hot the human body actually feels, a combination of relative humidity and air temperature. This would mean urban residents would experience higher heat stress.

What does this mean for Australia?

While the research found most urban warming would occur in the northern hemisphere, Australian cities are also projected to continue to warm. But we need only look to the recent record-breaking years to realise climate change will result in more extremely hot days here.

2019 was <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/future-climate.shtml">Australia’s hottest</a> (and driest) year on record. And today’s <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/">annual climate statement</a> from the Bureau of Meteorology shows the highest temperature ever recorded in the Sydney Basin, at a whopping 48.9℃, occurred in 2020, on January 4. It also found the average national temperature for 2020 was 1.15℃ higher than normal.

These are nationwide findings, but how Australia manages climate in urban areas is particularly important as around <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population/latest-release#capital-cities">80% of population growth</a> occurs in capital cities.

In fact, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169204620301407">2020 research</a> found we’re increasingly facing more frequent and prolonged heatwaves that intensify urban heat islands in places such as Sydney, by raising inland temperatures by as much as 10℃ more than in coastal zones.

Keeping cities cool

The best way to ensure our cities are kept cool is through greening urban spaces. Green spaces can be developed by planting trees in streets, yards and parks for shade, recreation and relief from the heat. This will create cooler urban “microclimates” for social interaction and <a href="https://theconversation.com/cities-will-endure-but-urban-design-must-adapt-to-coronavirus-risks-and-fears-135949">natural retreats</a> from city life.

<a href="https://www.dpie.nsw.gov.au/premiers-priorities/greening-our-city">Greater Sydney</a>, for example, has a welcome new policy to ensure five million more trees are planted by 2030. This is an important long-term goal as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S221067071630066X">2016 research from Canada</a> found tree cover in daytime reduced air temperature by up to 4℃ in Montreal city.

The design of buildings and their immediate surroundings are also important to help manage increasing heat in our cities.

Our open spaces are places of exercise, retreat, relaxation and, in a new COVID world, socially distant interactions. The pandemic has allowed us <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/popularity-of-parks-prompts-call-for-ideas-to-re-imagine-public-spaces-20200715-p55c5z">to rediscover</a> the importance of our community and local connections in these spaces.

Multi-storey buildings also provide opportunity for vertical greening. The Victorian government, for example, is seeking <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/policy-and-strategy/planning-for-melbourne/plan-melbourne/cooling-greening-melbourne/green-wall-on-the-go">to increase</a> the amount of green infrastructure in our urban areas to help us cope with predicted warmer conditions.

Australia needs a national planning policy

Urban planning and greening urban spaces is largely a local government responsibility, usually overseen by state and territory governments.

And there is national recognition of the importance of green cities through the federal government’s <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/cities/smart-cities/plan/index.aspx">Smart Cities Plan</a>. It states:

Green, sustainable cities […] improve the quality of air and water, reduce the heat island effect, protect biological diversity and threatened species, and enhance general amenity.

But what’s needed, urgently, is a national planning framework of green city principles so no regions get left behind. Climate change is a national issue, and all urban residents from all socioeconomic backgrounds should benefit from green cities.

This national planning policy would describe how our cities across the nation should develop appropriately spaced trees and other vegetation, to better manage and prepare for increasing density and greater activity as climate change brings hotter weather.

And importantly, more research is needed to better inform climate models. We need more information into the ways our climates will change within different land areas — whether rural, suburban or in cities — so we can develop better national plans for how we will live and work in the future.

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mark-maund-804795">Mark Maund</a>, Research Affiliate, School of Architecture and Built Environment, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-newcastle-1060">University of Newcastle</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kim-maund-497893">Kim Maund</a>, Discipline Head – Construction Management, School of Architecture and Built Environment, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-newcastle-1060">University of Newcastle</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/marcus-jefferies-1193769">Marcus Jefferies</a>, Senior Lecturer School of Architecture and Built Environment, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-newcastle-1060">University of Newcastle</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sueanne-ware-984197">SueAnne Ware</a>, Professor and Head of School of Architecture and Built Environment, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-newcastle-1060">University of Newcastle</a>

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cities-could-get-more-than-4-c-hotter-by-2100-to-keep-cool-in-australia-we-urgently-need-a-national-planning-policy-152680">original article</a>.
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Climate change is a national issue, and all urban residents from all socioeconomic backgrounds should benefit from green cities

urban.com.au

Cities could get more than 4°C hotter by 2100, Australia needs a national planning policy

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The Carbon Risk Real Estate Monitor (CRREM) has announced the public release of decarbonisation pathways for the global real estate sector, and the finalisation of the tool to identify and manage transition risks for individual assets.
The pathways will reportedly help market participants meet the recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD).
The downscaling pathways published today on the CRREM website identify annual energy- and carbon-intensity trajectories until 2050 across real estate markets and sectors that are consistent with keeping global warming below 2 degrees Celsius.
This is a policy goal endorsed by most municipal and national governments and thereby constitutes a plausible scenario against which future climate-related transition risk can be assessed.
The major investors supporting CRREM aim to establish it as a global standard for developing long-term decarbonisation pathways in the real estate sector based on a transparent and scientifically rigorous methodology.
CRREM covers 28 countries in Europe, North America and Asia-Pacific across the commercial real estate sector, including retail, offices, and logistics, as well as the residential sector.
According to the organisation, real estate plays a major role in combatting climate change.
The construction and operation of buildings accounts for 39 percent of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions globally, and much higher percentages in densely populated urban centres.
This exposes the real estate sector to significant climate-related transition risk as governments have started to impose increasingly stringent regulations on energy use and emissions from buildings to meet their own climate goals.
Regulatory risk around energy and carbon is shaping market and technology trends in the real estate sector.
As temperature is projected to rise 3.8 degrees Celsius under current legislation, the decarbonisation pathways aligned with 1.5- and 2-degree global carbon budgets reflect significant reduction requirements beyond current legislative requirements.
CRREM estimates that the carbon-intensity of the building sector will globally have to decline from currently approx. 52 kgCO2e/m2/pa to below 10 kgCO2e/m2/pa by 2050 in order to be in line with the 2-degree global carbon budget.
Such a scenario would have significant implications for long-term asset planning and risk management in the sector – especially for developed countries which in some cases are facing 100 kgCO2e/m2/pa as a starting point for office buildings (based on a whole-building approach).
Calculation of the global reduction targets and the derived national targets for different asset classes in the real estate sector create added-value for investors.
Added value for example includes the transparent analysis of carbon risks, calculation of the abatement costs and analysing the correct timing of retrofit measures that are needed to minimize climate-related transition risk.
Along with the pathways, CRREM also finalized the development of a tool to manage stranding risk for individual buildings.
All information required is aligned with the information GRESB collects at the asset level in order to assess and benchmark the performance of real asset portfolios. The software is Excel-based and has undergone a significant testing phase. It is available on the crrem.eu website.
The decarbonisation pathways were developed by the Austria-based Institute for Real Estate Economics (IIÖ), with technical support from GRESB.
The initiative was funded by APG, PGGM and Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) and received further support from Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund and Ivanhoé Cambridge.
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wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

Carbon Risk Real Estate Monitor announces decarbonisation plan

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Last month, the Australian National University contracted with the Social Research Centre (SRC) to survey more than 3,000 Australian adults about their experiences and attitudes related to the bushfires.
The <a href="https://csrm.cass.anu.edu.au/research/surveys/anupoll" target="_blank">study</a> is the first of its kind to gauge how people were affected by the crisis and how it changed their views on a range of subjects, from climate change to the government response.
More than half of Australians felt anxiety
Our research shows the vast majority of Australians were touched in some way by the fires. We asked about eight different forms of impact, from lost property to disrupted holiday plans to difficulty breathing from the smoke.
About 14.4% of our respondents experienced direct exposure to the fires, either through their property damage or evacuations.
We can extrapolate further by looking at population <a href="http://stat.data.abs.gov.au/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=ERP_QUARTERLY" target="_blank">estimates</a> from the ABS and the number of visitors to areas impacted by the bushfires from the <a href="https://www.tra.gov.au/Domestic/domestic-tourism-results" target="_blank">National Visitors Survey</a> to estimate the total number of people directly affected at around 3 million.
And 77.8% of our respondents reported indirect exposure to the fires, such as having a friend or family member with damaged or threatened property, having travel or holiday plans disrupted, being exposed to the physical effects of smoke or feeling anxious or worried about the fires.
Breaking the data down by individual category, the severity of the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-01-07/prolonged-bushfire-smoke-creates-new-health-risks/11844934">public health challenges</a> becomes more clear.
Nearly six in 10 respondents (57%) said they were physically affected by the smoke, while 53.6% said they felt anxious or worried about the fires.
Confidence in the government declined
The long-running <a href="https://australianelectionstudy.org/">Australian Election Study</a> has shown that confidence in the federal government has declined substantially in the past few decades.
Crises have the potential to restore some of this trust if dealt with effectively and transparently. However, the government’s handling of the recent bushfire crisis seems to have had the opposite effect.
Confidence in the federal government declined by 10.9 percentage points from 38.2% in our survey in October 2019 to 27.3% by January 2020.
Confidence in other institutions, meanwhile, was quite stable over the four-month period, and higher than for the federal government. Rural fire-fighting services had the highest level of public trust in our survey at 92.5%.
We also found a significant decline in the percentage of people who said they would vote for the Coalition if an election was held that day. This dropped from 40.4% in October 2019 to just 34.8% in January 2020 – nearly even with those who said they would vote for Labor in January (33.4%).
Significant increase in concern over global warming
We also tracked significant changes in people’s attitudes towards the environment.
For instance, 49.7% of people reported the environment as one of the top two issues facing Australia in January 2020, compared to 41.5% of respondents in October 2019.
Another interesting finding: 10.2% reported fires, natural disasters or extreme weather as the most or second-most important issue facing Australians, up from nearly nonexistent in October 2019.
Our findings showed consistently higher concern among Australians when it comes to specific environmental issues. Comparing responses from our January 2020 survey and a 2008 ANUpoll, we saw two large increases in concern for loss of native vegetation, animal species or biodiversity (13 percentage points) and drought and drying (nine percentage points).
There was an even larger increase in the proportion of people who believe global warming or climate change will impact their lives.
Nearly three-quarters (72.3%) of respondents said global warming was a very serious or fairly serious threat, a substantial increase from the 56% who said so in 2008.
The majority of those living in capital cities said they felt global warming was a very serious problem (62%) or a threat (74.9%). Perhaps even more surprising, however, was the fact these views were shared by people in non-capital cities (52% said it was very serious, 65.5% said it was a threat).
Support for new coal mines has also declined sharply over the past eight months. In our January survey, 37% of respondents said the government should allow the opening of new coal mines, down from 45.3% in an <a href="https://dataverse.ada.edu.au/dataverse.xhtml?alias=CSES">ANU survey</a> from June 2019.
While being exposed to the bushfires appears to have made people more aware of environmental issues, the drop in support for new coal mines does not appear to have been driven by the crisis itself. Rather, it appears to be consistent across the population, with the biggest decline occurring among those who voted for the Coalition in the 2019 federal election (57.5% supported new mines in January 2020, down from 71.8% in June 2019).
There is still much work to be done to fully understand people’s attitudes towards climate change and how this correlates with natural disasters like bushfires.
But the data in our survey provide opportunities for future research and new insights and will be made available through the Australian Data Archive. Future surveys could test for changes in people’s attitudes taking into account different variables and track how those attitudes change over time.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131672/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/nicholas-biddle-10171">Nicholas Biddle</a>, Professor of Economics and Public Policy, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877">Australian National University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ben-edwards-446349">Ben Edwards</a>, Associate Professor, Child and Youth Development and Longitudinal Studies, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877">Australian National University</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/diane-herz-965267">Diane Herz</a>, CEO, Social Research Centre, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877">Australian National University</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/toni-makkai-968244">Toni Makkai</a>, Emeritus Professor, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877">Australian National University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/nearly-80-of-australians-affected-in-some-way-by-the-bushfires-new-survey-shows-131672">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Nearly 80% of Australians have been affected by bushfires in some way

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GUEST OBSERVATION
During a heatwave in late 2018, Cairns temperatures topped 35°C nine days in a row and sensors at some points in the CBD recorded 45°C. <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/taha-chaiechi-106267"> </a>
Some <a href="https://www.un.org/en/ecosoc/integration/pdf/fact_sheet.pdf" target="_blank">60% of the planet’s expected urban area by 2030</a> is yet to be built. This forecast highlights how rapidly the world’s people are becoming urban. Cities now occupy about 2% of the world’s land area, but are home to about <a href="/news">55% of the world’s people</a> and generate more than <a href="http://nua.unhabitat.org/details1.asp?ProjectId=33&amp;ln=1" target="_blank">70% of global GDP</a>, plus the associated <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/cities-pollution.shtml" target="_blank">greenhouse gas emissions</a>.
So what does this mean for people who live in the tropical zones, where <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2014/06/expanding-tropics-will-play-greater-global-role-report-predicts" target="_blank">40% of the world’s population lives</a>? On current trends, this figure will rise to 50% by 2050. With <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/974736_Ziembicki%20et%20al._Implications%20of%20an%20expanding%20and%20intensifying%20tropical%20zone%20for%20the%20sustainable%20development%20agenda.pdf" target="_blank">tropical economies growing some 20% faster</a> than the rest of the world, the result is a swift expansion of tropical cities.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290236/original/file-20190830-115397-n616fu.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290236/original/file-20190830-115397-n616fu.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Population and number of cities of the world, by size class, 1990, 2018 and 2030. 
The populations of these growing tropical cities already experience high temperatures made worse by high humidity. This means they are highly vulnerable to extreme heat events as a result of climate change.
For example, extremely hot weather overwhelmed Cairns last summer. By December 3 2018, the city had recorded temperatures above 35°C nine days in a row. Four consecutive days were above 40°C.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289316/original/file-20190825-170935-9uanh3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Cairns’ heatwave summer. Authors, using BOM temperature data
For our research, temperature and humidity sensors were strategically placed in the Cairns CBD to represent people’s experience of weather at street level. These recorded temperatures consistently higher than the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) recordings, reaching 45°C at some points.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291224/original/file-20190906-175682-1p2r1by.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291224/original/file-20190906-175682-1p2r1by.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Highest temperatures recorded by James Cook University weather data sensors during the November-December 2018 heatwave in Cairns. Image: Bronson Philippa, Author provided
Local effects magnify heatwave impacts
Urban environments in general are hotter than non-urbanised surroundings that are covered by vegetation. The trapping of heat in cities, known as the <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/urban-heat-island/" target="_blank">urban heat island</a> effect, has impacts on human health, animal life, social events, tourism, water availability and business performance.
The urban heat island effect intensifies the impacts of increasing heatwaves on cities as a result of climate change.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291226/original/file-20190906-175678-la15cl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291226/original/file-20190906-175678-la15cl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Projections of increased heatwave frequency for Cairns region using visualisation platform on Queensland Future Climate Dashboard.<a class="source" href="https://app.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/dashboard/#responseTab2"> </a>
But it is important to remember that other local factors also influence these impacts. These include the scale, shape, materials, composition and growth of the built environment in a particular location and its surrounding areas.
The differences between the BoM data recorded at Cairns airport and the inner-city recordings show the impacts of urban expansion patterns, built form and choice of materials in tropical cities.
The linear layout of Cairns has, on one hand, enabled the formation of attractive places for commercial activities. As these activity centres evolve into focal points of urban life, they in turn influence all sorts of socioeconomic parameters.
On the other hand, the form the built environment takes changes the patterns of wind, sun and shade. These changes alter the urban <a href="https://theconversation.com/city-temperatures-and-city-economics-a-hidden-relationship-between-sun-and-wind-and-profits-116064" target="_blank">microclimate</a> by trapping heat and slowing or channelling air movements.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289318/original/file-20190825-170910-sjsrqt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
The layout and structures of Cairns CBD alter local microclimates by trapping heat and altering air flows.
Shifting the focus to the tropics
To date, a large body of research has explored the undesired consequences of climate change and urban heat islands. However, the focus has been on capital and metropolitan cities with <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-015-1703-8" target="_blank">humid continental climates</a>. Not many studies have looked at the economic and social impacts in the tropical context, where hot and humid conditions create extra heat stress.
Add the combined effects of climate change and urban heat islands and what are the socio-economic consequences of heatwaves in a tropical city like Cairns? We see that climate change adds another dimension to the relationship between cities, economic growth and development.
This presents a huge opportunity to start thinking about building cities that are not superficially greenwashed, but which instead tackle pressing issues such as climate variability and create sustainable business and social destinations.
In cold climates, heatwaves and urban heat islands are not necessarily undesired, but their negative impacts are more obvious and harmful in warmer climates. And these harmful impacts of heatwaves on our economy, environment and society are on the rise.
We have scientific evidence of the increasing length, frequency and intensity of heatwaves. The number of record hot days in Australia has <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/uploads/9901f6614a2cac7b2b888f55b4dff9cc.pdf" target="_blank">doubled in the past five decades</a>.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/289313/original/file-20190825-170956-trlr9q.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Projections of changes in heatwave frequency for northern Queensland in 2030 and 2070. <a class="source" href="https://app.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/dashboard/#responseTab2" target="_blank">Queensland Future Climate Dashboard/Queensland Government</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY</a>
What are the costs of heatwaves?
Increased exposure to heatwaves amplifies the adverse economic impacts on industries that are reliant on the health of their outdoor workers. This is in addition to the extreme heat-related fatalities and health-care costs of heatwave-related medical emergencies. As a <a href="https://www.nccarf.edu.au/localgov/resources/protecting-human-health-and-safety-during-severe-and-extreme-heat-events-national" target="_blank">PwC report to the Commonwealth</a> on extreme heat events stated:
Heatwaves kill more Australians than any other natural disaster. They have received far less public attention than cyclones, floods or bushfires — they are private, silent deaths, which only hit the media when morgues reach capacity or infrastructure fails.
Heat also has direct impacts on economic production. A <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/45660010_Temperatures_and_cyclones_strongly_associated_with_economic_production_in_the_Caribbean_and_Central_America" target="_blank">2010 study</a> found a 1°C increase resulted in a 2.4% reduction in non-agricultural production and a 0.1% reduction in agricultural production in 28 Caribbean-basin countries. Another <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2099798" target="_blank">study in 2012</a> found an 8% weekly loss of production when the temperature exceeded 32°C for six days in a row.
The 2017 <a href="http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/climate/farm-performance-climate" target="_blank">Farm performance and climate</a> report by the <a href="http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares" target="_blank">Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)</a> states:
"The recent changes in climate have had a significant negative effect on the productivity of Australian cropping farms, particularly in southwestern Australia and southeastern Australia."
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291232/original/file-20190906-175682-1k3i4mj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291232/original/file-20190906-175682-1k3i4mj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> 
Average climate effect on productivity of cropping farms in southwestern and southeastern Australia since 2000–01 (relative to average conditions from 1914–15 to 2014–15). <a class="source" href="http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/climate/farm-performance-climate" target="_blank">Farm performance and climate, ABARES</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY</a>
It’s not just farming that is vulnerable. A <a href="/news">Victorian government report</a> report this year estimated an extreme heatwave event costs the state’s construction sector A$103 million. The impact of heatwaves on the city of Melbourne’s economy is estimated at A$52.9 million a year on average.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290239/original/file-20190830-115391-128cd7z.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290239/original/file-20190830-115391-128cd7z.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Impacts of heatwaves on Victoria’s main economic sectors. <a class="source" href="/news" target="_blank">State of Victoria Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY</a>
According to this report, economic costs increase exponentially as the severity of heatwaves increases. This has obvious implications for cities in tropical regions.
As the next step in <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/project/Evidence-based-Economic-Assessment-of-Urban-Comfort" target="_blank">our research</a>, we are examining the relationship between local urban features, urban heat islands, the resulting city temperatures and their direct and indirect (spillover) effects on local and regional economic activities.
Taha Chaiechi, Senior Lecturer, James Cook University
Silvia Tavares, Lecturer in Urban Design, James Cook University 
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/urban-growth-heat-islands-humidity-climate-change-the-costs-multiply-in-tropical-cities-120825" target="_blank">original article</a>.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/120825/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
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Urban growth, heat islands, humidity, climate change: the costs multiply in tropical cities: James Cook University

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One of the problems with cars is the pollution they cause.
This not only impacts the world through greenhouse gas emissions but also has an impact on the health of residents living in areas with poor air quality, according to the latest Secret Agent report.
One of the main obvious benefits of restricted car use in our cities is less congestion.
Taking cars and street parking away means that there is more room for public amenity.
This includes wider footpaths as well as more room for plants and green space. This can also lead to beneficial health effects.
If more people are out and about walking and spending time in green spaces, rather than in their car, home or office, there are more opportunities for social interaction.
This is important because social isolation is a risk factor for physical and mental illness.
Another benefit noted by the report was that: "With less cars in the area it can be expected that there will be fewer fatalities caused by traffic accidents."
In terms of property value, more green space, safer streets and less traffic are also positive features.
Improved public realm and amenity can increase the desirability of a particular area.
This combined with population growth, will increase demand and property prices will likely go up, according to the report.
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Why going car free can boost property prices: The Secret Agent Report

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/80140/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
When you think of Antarctica, you probably picture vast, continuous ice sheets and glaciers, with maybe a penguin or two thrown in.
Yet most Antarctic plants and animals live in the permanently ice-free areas that cover about 1 percent of the continent. Our new research predicts that these areas could grow by a quarter during this century, with mixed prospects for the species that currently live there. 
Besides everyone’s favourite Emperor and Adélie penguins, terrestrial Antarctic species also include beautiful mosses, lichens, two types of flowering plants, and a suite of hardy invertebrates such as nematodes, springtails, rotifers and tardigrades, many of which are found nowhere else on Earth. Tardigrades – tiny creatures sometimes nicknamed “waterbears” – are so tough they can survive in space.
Antarctica’s ice-free areas are currently limited to a scattering of rocky outcrops along the coastline, or cliff faces, or the tops of mountain ranges. They form small patches of suitable habitat in a huge sea of ice, much like islands. 
As a result, the plants and animals that live there are often isolated from each other. But as Antarctica’s climate warms, we expect ice-free areas to get bigger and eventually start joining up. This would create more habitat for native species, but also new opportunities for non-native species to spread. 
Our study, published today in Nature, forecasts that climate change will expand Antarctica’s ice-free areas over the course of this century. Under the most severe scenario that we modelled (which is also the one on which the globe is currently tracking), more than 17,000 square km of new ice-free area could emerge across the continent by 2100. 
This would increase the current total ice-free area by nearly a quarter. The majority of this new ice-free land will be on the Antarctic Peninsula, which could have three times as much ice-free area as it does today.  
Brave new world
As the ice-free areas expand, the distances between them will decrease, giving plants and animals more opportunity to spread through the landscape. On the Antarctic Peninsula, which has already warmed more than anywhere else in Antarctica, many of the ice-free patches will expand so much that they will start joining together.
Will this increase in habitat availability benefit the plants and animals that live there? It will definitely provide new opportunities for some native plants and animals to expand their range and colonise new areas. The warming climate may also give a boost to species that are currently hampered by the lack of warmth, nutrients and water. Some Antarctic mosses, for example, are expected to grow faster as temperatures rise, and Antarctica’s two flowering plant species are already expanding southward.
However, the potential benefits seem likely to be outweighed by the negatives. The joining-up of habitat patches could allow species that have been isolated for much of their evolutionary past to meet suddenly. If the newcomers to a particular area outcompete the native species, then it may lead to localised extinctions. Over the coming centuries this could lead to the loss of many plants and animals, and the homogenisation of Antarctica’s ecosystems.
Antarctic aliens
An even bigger concern is that Antarctica’s great thaw could provide new opportunities for species to invade. Antarctica’s best bulwark against non-native species is its harsh climate and extreme weather, to which native Antarctic species have spent many thousands of years adapting. 
We already know that many plants and invertebrates are reaching Antarctica, most often in food or cargo shipments. As the climate warms, some of these non-native species may be able to establish themselves on the Antarctic Peninsula, and the increasing connectivity will allow them to easily move through the landscape. Many of these animals and plants may become invasive, competing with the native species for space and resources. 
We don’t know how Antarctica’s species will cope with the increasing competition. But if the sub-Antarctic islands provide any indication, the outlook is depressing. Australia’s World Heritage-listed Macquarie Island, for example, was severely impacted by invasive cats, rats, rabbits and mice (although it has since been declared free of these pests after an intensive eradication effort).
Several non-native species have already come to Antarctica, including the invasive annual meadowgrass Poa annua (a common weed around the world), which has colonised newly ice-free areas left behind by retreating glaciers. It is thought to outcompete Antarctica’s native plants, although we don’t yet know what the impact will be on animals. 
Humans – both scientists and tourists – are key transporters of non-native species to the continent, and tourist numbers continue to grow (almost 37,000 visited in the 2016-17 summer). 
Biosecurity is paramount for the ongoing protection of Antarctica. If bags, shoes, clothes and field equipment are not properly cleaned and inspected before arriving on the continent, then non-native seeds, microbes and insects could be transported to Antarctica and begin to spread. 
We call for protection of ice-free areas that will remain intact in a changing climate, and for the Antarctic scientific and tourism communities to pinpoint key areas where greater biosecurity and monitoring for invasive species may be needed.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jasmine-lee-171931" target="_blank">Jasmine Lee</a> is PhD candidate, biodiversity conservation and climate change, The University of Queensland.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/justine-shaw-299755" target="_blank">Justine Shaw</a> is Conservation Biologist, The University of Queensland.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-fuller-169469" target="_blank">Richard Fuller</a> is Associate Professor in Biodiversity and Conservation, The University of Queensland.
All are authors for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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